WEATHER PHENOMENA

 

Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of  the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models.  Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:

 

No tropical cyclones are currently active.

 

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

 

The full moon will arrive on May 16, 2022 at 04:14 UT. This is a complete eclipse of the moon when the moon is closest to earth and should enhance tidal effects significantly. The possibility of a large tidally triggered earthquake exists for the period May 12-20.  This eclipse will be visible to more than 2 billion people in North and South America and Europe. Longitudes which area near local solar midnight at the time of this eclipse are located near 63 West longitude while those at local solar noon area near 117 East longitude and in the west include much of the eastern U.S., the Caribbean and central America and western South America and in the east much of the ring of fire from Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Japan. These areas are most likely to see tidal triggering with this lunar eclipse.

 

 

 

May 12, 2022 is the twelfth day after the beginning of the new lunar month.  Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

 

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

 

Australia MB>=4.0 38 3.0 0.01

So Indonesia MB>=4.0 49 3.7 0.01

Global MB>=5.0 5 1.9 0.05

 

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

 

 

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

 

Tonga MB>=4.0 -28 -2.0 0.05

Turkey MB>=4.0 -10 -2.0 0.05