WEATHER PHENOMENA

 

Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of  the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models.  Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:

 

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E          

 

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TD    11E      2020-08-11  00:00 UT  12.2N   40.0W   35 kts  Central Atlantic 

 

TD 11E formed today in the central Atlantic east of the Windward Islands with winds up to 35 kts. It is expected to track to the northwest over the next several days and to miss the Caribbean. Some increases in seismicity in the Virgin Islands could, however accompany this storm August 14-15.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W          

 

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TD    06W      2020-08-11  00:00 UT  24.4N  137.8E   35 kts  Bonin Islands, Japan 

 

TD 06W continued today with winds up to 35 kts east of the Bonin Islands, Japan. It is expected to track to the west over the next several days. A moderate earthquake in the Bonin, Izu or Volcano Islands of Japan is possible with this storm in the next several days.

 

TROPICAL STORM MEKKHALA    (07W)

 

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TS    MEKKHALA 2020-08-11  00:00 UT  24.1N  117.7E   85 kts  East of Taiwan       

 

TS Mekkhala continued today in the area east of Taiwan with winds up to 85 kts. It is expected to make landfall today in southern China and to dissipate in the next two days. Regional seismicity in southeastern Asia and Taiwan may be enhanced in the next several days.

 

HURRICANE ELIDA (09E)

 

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HURR  ELIDA    2020-08-11  00:00 UT  20.5N  112.3E   80 kts  South of Jalisco, Mexico    

 

Hurricane Elida continued today in the area south of Jalisco, Mexico with winds up to 80 kts. It is expected to track to the northwest dissipated in the North Pacific around August 13. No seismic enhancement is expected with this storm.

 

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

 

 

August 11, 2020  is the twenty-second day after the beginning of the new lunar month.  Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

 

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

 

Aleutians MB>=4.0 27 2.0 0.05

Geysers MB>=2.0 5 1.9 0.05

Greece MB>=4.0 8 2.0 0.05

Indian Ocean MB>=4.0 17 2.1 0.05

Mammoth Lakes MB>=0.0 55 2.4 0.04

Mammoth Lakes MB>=2.0 70 3.6 0.01

Siberia MB>=4.0 38 2.1 0.05

Utah2 MB>=2.0 27 2.7 0.02

Washington MB>=0.0 95 3.2 0.01

Central California MB>=2.0 10 2.5 0.04

Central California MB>=3.0 20 2.5 0.03

Global MB>=5.0 7 2.4 0.04

Hawaii MB>=2.0 20 2.9 0.02

Iran MB>=4.0 30 2.2 0.05

San Andreas MB>=0.0 14 2.3 0.05

San Andreas MB>=2.0 43 1.9 0.05

San Andreas MB>=3.0 40 2.8 0.02

So Asia MB>=4.0 46 3.3 0.01

Turkey MB>=4.0 11 2.1 0.05

 

 

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

 

 

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

 

NW Europe MB>=4.0 -9 -1.9 0.05