Tidal and Weather effects

WEATHER PHENOMENA

January 13, 2025

Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:

TROPICAL CYCLONE DIKELEDI (07S)

---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------

TC DIKELEDI 2025-01-13 00:00 UT 15.5S 40.2E 085 kts East of northern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi (07S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean west of Madagascar with winds up to 85 kts. It is expected to track to the west over the next several days making landfall in northern Madagascar and to dissipate Around January 11, 2025. Some enhanced seismicity in the areas of the Indian Ocean and eastern Africa is possible as this storm makes landfall. This cyclone will reach an area of 34S 62W around January 19, 2025. At this time it will be antipodal to Los Angeles, California and could promote enhanced seismicity in that area at that time. Coincidence such as this have been seen in seismicity in Southern California after strong fire events such as is now happening in the area.

A tropical cyclone may be forming in the South Indian Ocean north of Western Australia with winds up to 33 kts. It is expected to track to the west but is unlikely to enhance seismicity in this area of the world.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

The full moon arrived on January 13, 2025 at 22:27 UT. Longitudes which are at local solar midnight at this time are located at about 20 East while those at local solar noon are near 160 West. In the east these include most of western Europe and Iceland while in the west areas of the western Aleutians, Alaska, Hawaii, Tonga/Fiji/Kermadec Islands, New Zealand to the Balleny Islands and portions of the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge are included. These are the most likely areas to see significant tidal triggering with this full moon. Other areas may also see tidal promotion in the next week especially at times of large solar flares and near local solar midnight and solar noon. The likelihood of a strong associated earthquake with this full moon are moderate to high.

January 14, 2025 is the fifteenth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

NE Europe MB>=4.0 11 2.5 0.04

Solomon Islands MB>=4.0 26 2.6 0.03

Japan MB>=4.0 16 2.4 0.04

Spain MB>=4.0 30 2.2 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

No Regions

WEATHER PHENOMENA

January 12, 2025

TROPICAL CYCLONE DIKELEDI (07S)

---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------

TC DIKELEDI 2025-01-13 00:00 UT 15.5S 40.2E 085 kts East of northern Madagascar

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

The full moon will arrive on January 13, 2025 at 22:27 UT. Longitudes which are at local solar midnight at this time are located at about 20 East while those at local solar noon are near 160 West. In the east these include most of western Europe and Iceland while in the west areas of the western Aleutians, Alaska, Hawaii, Tonga/Fiji/Kermadec Islands, New Zealand to the Balleny Islands and portions of the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge are included. These are the most likely areas to see significant tidal triggering with this full moon. Other areas may also see tidal promotion in the next week especially at times of large solar flares and near local solar midnight and solar noon. The likelihood of a strong associated earthquake with this full moon are moderate to high.

January 13, 2025 is the fourteenth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Solomon Islands MB>=4.0 23 2.3 0.04

Spain MB>=4.0 38 2.7 0.02

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Rocky Mountains MB>=4.0 -54 -2.1 0.05

China MB>=4.0 -18 -2.1 0.05

WEATHER PHENOMENA

January 11, 2025

TROPICAL CYCLONE PITA (08P)

---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------

TC PITA 2025-01-12 00:00 UT 21.9S 158.8W 045 kts South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone Pita (08P) formed today in the area of the south Pacific Ocean with winds up to 45 kts. It is not expected to influence seismicity in this area. The antipode is at 22N 22E, another aseismic area.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DIKELEDI (07S)

---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------

TC DIKELEDI 2025-01-12 00:00 UT 18.6S 46.2E 080 kts East of northern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi (07S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean west of Madagascar with winds up to 80 kts. It is expected to track to the west over the next several days making landfall in northern Madagascar and to dissipate Around January 11, 2025. Some enhanced seismicity in the areas of the Indian Ocean and eastern Africa is possible as this storm makes landfall. The antipode is at 14N 120W - an area west of the Baja Peninsula. Minimal seismic enhancement is likely in this area at this time.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

January 12, 2025 is the thirteenth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Central America MB>=4.0 10 2.1 0.05

Global MB>=6.0 15 2.5 0.03

Utah MB>=0.0 14 2.7 0.03

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Central California MB>=2.0 -8 -2.2 0.05

WEATHER PHENOMENA

January 10, 2025

TROPICAL CYCLONE PITA (08P)

---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------

TC PITA 2025-01-11 00:00 UT 21.9S 158.8W 045 kts South Pacific

TROPICAL CYCLONE DIKELEDI (07S)

---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------

TC DIKELEDI 2025-01-11 00:00 UT 13.0S 55.1E 090 kts East of northern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi (07S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean east of Madagascar with winds up to 90 kts. It is expected to track to the west over the next several days making landfall in northern Madagascar and to dissipate Around January 11, 2025. Some enhanced seismicity in the areas of the Indian Ocean and eastern Africa is possible as this storm makes landfall. The antipode is at 14N 120W - an area west of the Baja Peninsula. Minimal seismic enhancement is likely in this area at this time.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

January 11, 2025 is the twelfth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Australia MB>=4.0 38 3.0 0.01

So Indonesia MB>=4.0 49 3.7 0.01

Global MB>=5.0 5 1.9 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Tonga MB>=4.0 -28 -2.0 0.05

Turkey MB>=4.0 -10 -2.0 0.05

WEATHER PHENOMENA

January 9, 2025

TROPICAL CYCLONE DIKELEDI (07S)

---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------

TC DIKELEDI 2025-01-10 00:00 UT 13.6S 60.1E 050 kts East of northern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi (07S) formed today in the area of the south Indian Ocean east of Madagascar with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track to the west over the next several days making landfall in northern Madagascar and to dissipate Around January 11, 2025. Some enhanced seismicity in the areas of the Indian Ocean and eastern Africa is possible as this storm makes landfall. The antipode is at 14N 120W - an area west of the Baja Peninsula. Minimal seismic enhancement is likely in this area at this time.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

January 10, 2025 is the eleventh day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

So. Alaska MB>=3.0 9 2.7 0.02

Australia MB>=4.0 33 2.6 0.03

New Madrid MB>=0.0 34 3.4 0.01

So Indonesia MB>=4.0 42 3.1 0.01

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Geysers MB>=0.0 -6 -2.2 0.05

NE Europe MB>=4.0 -10 -2.3 0.04

Tonga MB>=4.0 -29 -2.0 0.05

EATHER PHENOMENA

January 8, 2025

No Tropical Cyclones are currently active

A tropical cyclone may be forming in the South Indian Ocean east of Madagascar. This system is currently located near 15S 68E and moving to the west at 19 kts with winds up to 33 kts. It could enhance regional seismicity along the ridge lines in the South Indian Ocean area and could affect the antipodal seismicity near the Gulf of California at 15N 112W. Later it could affect seismicity in southern California as it approaches the antipode to that area.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

January 9, 2025 is the tenth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Alaska MB>=3.0 6 2.0 0.05

Greece MB>=4.0 8 2.0 0.05

Hawaii MB>=2.0 19 2.7 0.02

Kuriles MB>=4.0 22 1.9 0.05

Mammoth Lakes MB>=3.0 19 2.2 0.05

East Pacific Rise MB>=4.0 38 2.3 0.05

Hindu Kush MB>=4.0 20 2.9 0.01

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

No Regions

WEATHER PHENOMENA

January 7, 2025

No Tropical Cyclones are currently active

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

January 8, 2025 is the ninth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Mt ST. Helens MB>=1.0 55 4.1 0.01

Washington MB>=3.0 19 3.3 0.01

JMA MB>=4.0 14 2.0 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

East US MB>=1.0 -12 -2.3 0.04

WEATHER PHENOMENA

January 6, 2025

No Tropical Cyclones are currently active

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

January 7, 2025 is the eighth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Pacific-Antarctic Ridge MB>=4.0 58 2.0 0.05

Central So America MB>=4.0 23 2.3 0.04

Mt ST. Helens MB>=0.0 40 3.0 0.01

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Siberia MB>=4.0 -37 -2.0 0.05

WEATHER PHENOMENA

January 5, 2025

No Tropical Cyclones are currently active

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

January 6, 2025 is the seventh day after the beginning of the lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

No Regions

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

East US MB>=1.0 -13 -2.5 0.03

WEATHER PHENOMENA

January 4, 2025

No Tropical Cyclones are currently active

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

The new moon (supermoon) arrived on December 30, 2024 at 22:27 UT. Longitudes which are at local solar midnight at this time are located at about 20 East while those at local solar noon are near 160 West. In the east these include most of western Europe and Iceland and the Atlantic Ridge while in the west areas of the western Aleutians, Alaska, Hawaii, Tonga/Fiji/New Zealand and portions of the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge are included. These are the most likely areas to see significant tidal triggering with this new moon. Other areas may also see tidal promotion in the next week especially at times of large solar flares and near local solar midnight and solar noon. The likelihood of a strong associated earthquake with this new moon are considered moderate to high in the next week (December 28-31, 2024 and January 1-4, 2025)." (December 27, 2024 to January 2, 2025)

January 5, 2025 is the sixth day after the beginning of the lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Indian Ocean MB>=4.0 17 2.1 0.05

Kamchatka MB>=4.0 35 2.6 0.03

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Global MB>=6.0 -17 -2.8 0.02

West Pacific MB>=4.0 -20 -1.9 0.05

Yellowstone MB>=0.0 -19 -2.0 0.05

Puerto Rico MB>=4.0 -17 -1.9 0.05

WEATHER PHENOMENA

January 3, 2025

No Tropical Cyclones are currently active

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

January 4, 2025 is the fifth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

JMA MB>=4.0 14 2.0 0.05

Kamchatka MB>=4.0 58 4.3 0.01

Kanto MB>=4.0 42 2.6 0.03

So. California MB>=3.0 60 2.0 0.05

Washington MB>=2.0 36 3.3 0.01

Washington MB>=3.0 11 1.9 0.05

West Pacific MB>=4.0 22 2.2 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Pacific-Antarctic Ridge MB>=4.0 -59 -2.1 0.05

Caribbean MB>=4.0 -20 -2.2 0.05

N Indonesia MB>=4.0 -41 -2.2 0.05

WEATHER PHENOMENA

January 2, 2025

No Tropical Cyclones are currently active

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

January 3, 2025 is the fourth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Caribbean MB>=4.0 20 2.3 0.05

Caucasus MB>=4.0 25 3.1 0.01

East Pacific Rise MB>=4.0 35 2.1 0.05

Japan MB>=4.0 23 3.3 0.01

JMA MB>=4.0 21 2.9 0.01

Kanto MB>=4.0 61 3.9 0.01

So.California MB>=0.0 11 3.1 0.01

Indian Ocean MB>=4.0 16 1.9 0.05

Kamchatka MB>=4.0 33 2.4 0.04

Washington MB>=2.0 33 3.1 0.01

West Pacific MB>=4.0 23 2.3 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

China MB>=4.0 -17 -2.1 0.05

Italy MB>=4.0 -30 -2.0 0.05

WEATHER PHENOMENA

January 2, 2025

No Tropical Cyclones are currently active

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

January 2, 2025 is the third day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Alaska MB>=4.0 6 1.9 0.05

Central California MB>=2.0 9 2.3 0.05

Mammoth Lakes MB>=2.0 45 2.3 0.05

Mammoth Lakes MB>=3.0 23 2.6 0.03

Mt ST.Helens MB>=1.0 29 2.2 0.05

Spain MB>=4.0 31 2.2 0.05

Arctic MB>=4.0 36 2.3 0.04

Caribbean MB>=4.0 27 3.0 0.01

Caucasus MB>=4.0 23 2.9 0.01

So. California MB>=0.0 10 2.7 0.03

So. California MB>=2.0 22 1.9 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

No Regions

Print Sitemap

Web View Mobile View

Logout Edit page