WEATHER PHENOMENA

 

Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of  the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models.  Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:

 

 

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA (05E) 

 

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TS    CRISTINA 2020-07-10  00:00 UT  19.4N  114.7W   75 kts  South of Michoacan, Mexico

 

 

Tropical Storm Cristina continued south of Michoacan, Mexico today with winds up to 75 kts. This system is not expected to impact land and no seismic watch is current with this storm despite reaching light hurricane force around July 10.

 

 

TROPICAL STORM FAY            

 

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TS    FAY      2020-07-10  00:00 UT  41.0N   74.2W   35 kts  New York, Pennsylvania     

 

TS Fay formed today in the area of New York and Pennsylvania with winds up to 40 kts. It is expected to track to the north over the next several days passing over New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine. Some increases is seismicity in the northeastern U.S. and southeaster Canada may accompany this storm.

 

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

 

 

July 10, 2020 is the twentieth day after the beginning of the new lunar month.  Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

 

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

 

Central US MB>=1.0 63 2.7 0.03

India MB>=4.0 49 2.1 0.05

N So. America MB>=4.0 24 2.8 0.02

Central California MB>=0.0 43 2.8 0.02

Central California MB>=2.0 9 2.3 0.04

Central California MB>=3.0 23 2.8 0.02

Rocky Mountains MB>=0.0 70 2.7 0.02

San Andreas MB>=0.0 23 3.8 0.01

San Andreas MB>=2.0 75 3.4 0.01

San Andreas MB>=3.0 48 3.4 0.01

 

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

 

 

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

 

NW Europe MB>=4.0 -9 -2.0 0.05

Mammoth lakes MB>=3.0 -17 -1.9 0.05

So Indonesia MB>=4.0 -29 -2.2 0.05