WEATHER PHENOMENA

Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of  the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models.  Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:

No tropical cyclones are currently active

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

The full moon will arrive on June 4, 2023 at 03:42 UT. Longitudes at local solar noon are near 126 East and those at local solar midnight are near 55 West longitude. In the west these include the northern and Eastern Caribbean as well as areas of western South America while in the East longitudes near 126 E are located in the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and Indonesia among others. These are the most likely areas to see tidal triggering at this time, but other areas could see significant enhancement in seismicity in the next several days. These would most likely see seismic enhancement near local solar noon or midnight. A strong to major earthquake is considered likely with this new moon before May 25, 2023.

June 4, 2023 is the fifteenth day after the beginning of the new lunar month.  Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

NE Europe MB>=4.0 11 2.5 0.04

Solomon Islands MB>=4.0 26 2.6 0.03

Japan MB>=4.0 16 2.4 0.04

Spain MB>=4.0 30 2.2 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

No Regions