WEATHER PHENOMENA

 

Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of  the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models.  Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:

 

 

HURRICANE DORA

 

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HURR  DORA     2017-06-28  00:00 UT  19.5N  111.9W   55 kts  South of Jalisco, Mexico               

 

Hurricane Dora continued south of Baja California, Mexico today with winds up to 55 kts. This system is currently located offshore and is expected to track out into the Pacific.  The current location of the eye poses little threat of associated large-scale seismicity. It allows the lower Pacific Plate to rise with respect to the overriding North American Plate. This locks the two together preventing a large earthquake at this time. This should continue as long as the eye is out to sea. Light to moderate quakes may occur due to shaking associated with Hurricane Dora however.

 

 

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

 

 

June 28, 2017 is the fourth day after the beginning of the new lunar month.

Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

 

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

 

Caribbean MB>=4.0 20 2.3 0.05

Caucasus MB>=4.0 25 3.1 0.01

East Pacific Rise MB>=4.0 35 2.1 0.05

Japan MB>=4.0 23 3.3 0.01

JMA MB>=4.0 21 2.9 0.01

Kanto MB>=4.0 61 3.9 0.01

So.California MB>=0.0 11 3.1 0.01

Indian Ocean MB>=4.0 16 1.9 0.05

Kamchatka MB>=4.0 33 2.4 0.04

Washington MB>=2.0 33 3.1 0.01

West Pacific MB>=4.0 23 2.3 0.05

 

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

 

 

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

 

China MB>=4.0 -17 -2.1 0.05

Italy MB>=4.0 -30 -2.0 0.05