WEATHER PHENOMENA

 

Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of  the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models.  Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:

 

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE VAYU (02A)

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

TC    Vayu     2019-06-16  00:00 UT  20.8N  066.1E  045 kts  Off coast of western India

 

Tropical Cyclone Vayu (02A) continued today in the north Indian Ocean west of Peninsular India with winds up to  45 kts. It is expected to track along the Indian coast for the next several days moving  to the west. Seismicity in the Himalayas, Pakistan and northern India is likely to  be enhanced while this storm is active.

 

 

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

 

The full moon will arrive on June 17 at 08:31 U.T. Longitudes which area sub-solar at this time are near 52 East and those anti-solar at 128 West longitude. These include area of Iran and the Caucasus in Asia and Europe and the west coast of the U.S. in the west. These are regions most likely to see tidal promotion of seismicity during the coming week. Other areas can also see tidal triggering. These are most likely near local solar midnight and noon and generally include areas of vertical tectonics such as subduction zones.

 

 

June 16, 2019 is the thirteenth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering  on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

 

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

 

 

Central America MB>=4.0 10 2.1 0.05

Global MB>=6.0 15 2.5 0.03

Utah MB>=0.0 14 2.7 0.03

 

 

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

 

 

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

 

Central California MB>=2.0 -8 -2.2 0.05