WEATHER PHENOMENA

 

Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of  the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models.  Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:

 

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE FERDINAND (20S)

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

TC   FERDINAND 2020-02-26  00:00 UT  15.8S  115.5E  115 kts  South of Java

 

Tropical cyclone Ferdinand (20S) continued today in the area south of Java with winds up to 115 kts. Stresses from this storm may enhance regional seismicity in Java and Bali to the north.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

 

The New Moon  arrived on February 23, 2020 at 15:32 UT. Longitudes which were sub-solar at this time are near 52 West while those antisolar are at 128 East longitude. These include areas of the Central Atlantic such as Puerto Rico and the South Sandwich Islands in the west and central Indonesia, the Philippines and Japan in the east. A strong tidally enhanced earthquake is possible in the next six days. Other tidal enhancement would promote larger quakes near local solar noon and midnight. Many other areas of the earth can also see tidal enhancement of seismicity at this time.

 

 

February 26, 2020  is the third day after the beginning of the new lunar month.  Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

 

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

 

Alaska MB>=4.0 6 1.9 0.05

Central California MB>=2.0 9 2.3 0.05

Mammoth Lakes MB>=2.0 45 2.3 0.05

Mammoth Lakes MB>=3.0 23 2.6 0.03

Mt ST.Helens MB>=1.0 29 2.2 0.05

Spain MB>=4.0 31 2.2 0.05

Arctic MB>=4.0 36 2.3 0.04

Caribbean MB>=4.0 27 3.0 0.01

Caucasus MB>=4.0 23 2.9 0.01

So. California MB>=0.0 10 2.7 0.03

So. California MB>=2.0 22 1.9 0.05

 

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

 

 

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

 

No Regions