Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
No tropical cyclones are currently active.
TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY
The new moon will arrive at 07:20 UT on December 7, 2018. Longitudes which are antisolar at this time are near 110 West while those sub-solar are near 70 East
longitude. These longitude zones will experience the most tidal stresses possibly leading to moderate to strong triggered seismicity. In the west they include areas of western North America and the East Pacific Rise; in the east they include central Asia and portions of the Indian Ocean Ridge. Tidal promotion of seismicity however is not limited to these regions and may occur in areas near rupture. Watch for events occurring near local solar midnight and noon for possible targets of tidal triggering.
December 8, 2018 is the first day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
Caucasus MB>=4.0 18 2.3 0.04
Idaho MB>=1.0 20 2.6 0.03
Italy MB>=4.0 43 2.8 0.02
Kuriles MB>=4.0 34 2.9 0.01
Tonga MB>=4.0 27 1.9 0.05
Mammoth Lakes MB>=0.0 46 2.0 0.05
Mammoth Lakes MB>=2.0 37 1.9 0.05
Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are: