WEATHER PHENOMENA

 

Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of  the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models.  Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:

 

 

TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (DEPRESSION 11W)

 

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TS    SON-TINH 2018-07-23  00:00 UT  20.5N  110.1E  045 kts  South China Sea               

 

TS Son-tinh (TD 11W) continued today west of the northern Philippines with winds up to 45 kts. It is expected to dissipate over Vietnam today. Some increased seismicity on strike-slip faults further inland in Asia may be associated with landfall today. This can occur as far as the Iran subduction zone which was active today.

 

TROPICAL STORM AMPIL (DEPRESSION 12W)

 

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TS    AMPIL    2018-07-23  00:00 UT  35.0N  118.5E  040 kts  North of Taiwan 

 

TS Ampil (TD 12W) continued today north of Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands, Japan with winds up to 55 kts. Seismicity in Taiwan, the northern Philippines and the Ryukyu Islands could be enhanced by stresses from TS Ampil in the next several days including a possible moderate quake.

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION  15W

 

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TD    15W      2018-07-23  00:00 UT  15.2N  137.5E  040 kts  West of Guam

 

TD 15W formed today west of Guam with winds up to 40 kts. It is expected to track to the north over the next four days but not to interact with seismic zones during this period.

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION  13W

 

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TD    13W      2018-07-23  00:00 UT  28.2N  123.7E  040 kts  North of Taiwan

 

TD 13W continued today north of Taiwan  with winds up to 40 kts. This may coincide with elevated seismicity in Taiwan or the northern Philippines or Ryukyu Islands through July 25.

 

TROPICAL STORM 14W

 

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TS    14W      2018-07-23  00:00 UT  23.0N  160.0E  045 kts  Northern Pacific

 

TS 14W formed today in the North Pacific with winds up to 45 kts. It is expected to track to the north reaching the Kuril Islands around July 27. A moderate to strong quake in the Kurils could occur after that.

 

 

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

 

 

July 23, 2018  is the tenth day after the beginning of the new lunar month.

Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

 

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

 

Alaska MB>=3.0 6 2.0 0.05

Greece MB>=4.0 8 2.0 0.05

Hawaii MB>=2.0 19 2.7 0.02

Kuriles MB>=4.0 22 1.9 0.05

Mammoth Lakes MB>=3.0 19 2.2 0.05

East Pacific Rise MB>=4.0 38 2.3 0.05

Hindu Kush MB>=4.0 20 2.9 0.01

 

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

 

 

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

 

No Regions