Tidal and Weather effects

WEATHER PHENOMENA

July 12, 2024

Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:

No tropical cyclones are currently active

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

The full moon will arrive on July 21, 2024 at 10:17 UT. Longitudes which are at local solar noon at this time are localed near 30 East longitude while those at local solar midnight are near 150 West longitude. In the east these include These include Hawaii and areas of eastern Alaska and western Canada and to a lesser extent areas off the coast of Oregon and California while in the east they include Eastern Turkey, Ethiopia and areas off southern Africa and eastern Europe. These and surrounding areas are the most likely to see tidally enhanced seismicity at this time. A large to major earthquake is considered likely in the next week at this time.

July 13, 2024 is the eighth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Pacific-Antarctic Ridge MB>=4.0 58 2.0 0.05

Central So America MB>=4.0 23 2.3 0.04

Mt ST. Helens MB>=0.0 40 3.0 0.01

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Siberia MB>=4.0 -37 -2.0 0.05

WEATHER PHENOMENA

July 11, 2024

No tropical cyclones are currently active

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

July 12, 2024 is the seventh day after the beginning of the lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

No Regions

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

East US MB>=1.0 -13 -2.5 0.03

WEATHER PHENOMENA

July 10, 2024

HURRICANE BERYL

---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------

HURR BERYL 2024-07-12 00:00 UT 46.2N 70.8W 35 kts Central Maine

Hurricane Beryl continued today in the area of Central Maine with winds up to 35 kts. This system is expected to track to the east over the next three days having dropped copious rainfall on the northeastern U.S. with heavy rains today and in the northeastern U.S. on July 11. Some minor associated seismicity in the area may be triggered with the passage of Beryl as well as some triggered seismicity along the northwestern U.S. and western Canada could include a strong Vancouver Island event.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

July 11, 2024 is the sixth day after the beginning of the lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Indian Ocean MB>=4.0 17 2.1 0.05

Kamchatka MB>=4.0 35 2.6 0.03

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Global MB>=6.0 -17 -2.8 0.02

West Pacific MB>=4.0 -20 -1.9 0.05

Yellowstone MB>=0.0 -19 -2.0 0.05

Puerto Rico MB>=4.0 -17 -1.9 0.05

WEATHER PHENOMENA

July 9, 2024

HURRICANE BERYL

---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------

HURR BERYL 2024-07-10 00:00 UT 32.2N 94.8W 35 kts Eastern Texas

Hurricane Beryl continued today in the area of eastern Texas with winds up to 35 kts. This system is expected to track to the north and east over the next three days in Southern Texas, Arkansas, Missouri and onto the great Lakes of Erie and Ontario. It could help promote enhanced seismicity the area of eastern Mexico and southern coastal Texas and central U.S. including the possibility of a strong regional earthquake as it moves north of this area. Enhanced seismicity is also likely with substantial flooding in southern Texas and central U.S. at the beginning of the week and following the pat to the northeast through the rest of the week. An active seismic center near 28N 98W could be activated at this time.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

July 10, 2024 is the fifth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

JMA MB>=4.0 14 2.0 0.05

Kamchatka MB>=4.0 58 4.3 0.01

Kanto MB>=4.0 42 2.6 0.03

So. California MB>=3.0 60 2.0 0.05

Washington MB>=2.0 36 3.3 0.01

Washington MB>=3.0 11 1.9 0.05

West Pacific MB>=4.0 22 2.2 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Pacific-Antarctic Ridge MB>=4.0 -59 -2.1 0.05

Caribbean MB>=4.0 -20 -2.2 0.05

N Indonesia MB>=4.0 -41 -2.2 0.05

WEATHER PHENOMENA

July 8, 2024

HURRICANE BERYL

---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------

HURR BERYL 2024-07-10 00:00 UT 32.2N 94.8W 35 kts Eastern Texas

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

The new moon arrived on July 5, 2024 at 22:57 UT. Longitudes which are at local solar midnight at this time are located at about 15 East while those at local solar noon are near 165 West. In the east these include most of western Europe and Iceland and the Atlantic Ridge while in the west areas of the western Aleutians, Alaska, Hawaii, Tonga/Fiji/New Zealand and portions of the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge are included. These are the most likely areas to see significant tidal triggering with this new moon. Other areas may also see tidal promotion in the next week especially at times of large solar flares and near local solar midnight and solar noon. The likelihood of a strong associated earthquake with this new moon are considered moderate to high in the next week (July 1-10, 2024).

July 9, 2024 is the fourth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Caribbean MB>=4.0 20 2.3 0.05

Caucasus MB>=4.0 25 3.1 0.01

East Pacific Rise MB>=4.0 35 2.1 0.05

Japan MB>=4.0 23 3.3 0.01

JMA MB>=4.0 21 2.9 0.01

Kanto MB>=4.0 61 3.9 0.01

So.California MB>=0.0 11 3.1 0.01

Indian Ocean MB>=4.0 16 1.9 0.05

Kamchatka MB>=4.0 33 2.4 0.04

Washington MB>=2.0 33 3.1 0.01

West Pacific MB>=4.0 23 2.3 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

China MB>=4.0 -17 -2.1 0.05

Italy MB>=4.0 -30 -2.0 0.05

WEATHER PHENOMENA

July 7, 2024

HURRICANE BERYL

---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------

HURR BERYL 2024-07-08 00:00 UT 28.3N 97.6W 40 kts Southern Texas

Hurricane Beryl continued today in the area of southern Texas with winds up to 40 kts. This system is expected to track to the north and west over the next three days in Southern Texas, Arkansas, Missouri and onto the great Lakes of Erie and Ontario. It could help promote enhanced seismicity the area of eastern Mexico and southern coastal Texas and central U.S. including the possibility of a strong regional earthquake as it moves north of this area. Enhanced seismicity is also likely with substantial flooding in southern Texas and central U.S. at the beginning of the week and following the pat to the northeast through the rest of the week. An active seismic center near 28N 98W could be activated at this time.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

July 8, 2024 is the third day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Alaska MB>=4.0 6 1.9 0.05

Central California MB>=2.0 9 2.3 0.05

Mammoth Lakes MB>=2.0 45 2.3 0.05

Mammoth Lakes MB>=3.0 23 2.6 0.03

Mt ST.Helens MB>=1.0 29 2.2 0.05

Spain MB>=4.0 31 2.2 0.05

Arctic MB>=4.0 36 2.3 0.04

Caribbean MB>=4.0 27 3.0 0.01

Caucasus MB>=4.0 23 2.9 0.01

So. California MB>=0.0 10 2.7 0.03

So. California MB>=2.0 22 1.9 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

No Regions

WEATHER PHENOMENA

July 6, 2024

HURRICANE BERYL

---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------

HURR BERYL 2024-07-07 00:00 UT 25.3N 94.6W 60 kts East of northern Mexico

Hurricane Beryl continued today in the area east of northern Mexico and southern Texas with winds up to 60 kts. This system is expected to track to the north and west over the next three days making a second landfall on July 8 in Southern Texas. It could help promote enhanced seismicity the area of eastern Mexico and southern coastal Texas including the possibility of a strong regional earthquake as it moves north of this area. Enhanced seismicity is also likely with substantial flooding in southern Texas at the beginning of the week. An active seismic center near 28N 98W could be activated at this time.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

July 7, 2024 is the second day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Idaho MB>=1.0 15 1.9 0.05

New Zealand MB>=4.0 17 2.0 0.05

NW Europe MB>=4.0 9 2.0 0.05

So South America MB>=4.0 36 4.0 0.01

Central California MB>=2.0 7 1.9 0.05

Mammoth Lakes MB>=2.0 48 2.4 0.04

Mammoth Lakes MB>=3.0 26 2.9 0.01

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Global MB>=6.0 -14 -2.3 0.04

Siberia MB>=4.0 -45 -2.4 0.04

WEATHER PHENOMENA

July 5, 2024

HURRICANE BERYL

---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------

HURR BERYL 2024-07-06 00:00 UT 23.9N 93.0W 60 kts East of northern Mexico

Hurricane Beryl continued today in the area east of northern, Mexico with winds up to 60 kts. This system is expected to track to the north and west over the next three days making a second landfall on July 8 in Southern Texas. It could help promote enhanced seismicity the area of eastern Mexico and southern coastal Texas including the possibility of a strong regional earthquake as it moves north of this area. Enhanced seismicity is also likely with substantial flooding in southern Texas at the beginning of the week. An active seismic center near 28N 98W could be activated at this time.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

The new moon will arrive on July 5, 2024 at 22:57 UT. Longitudes which are at local solar midnight at this time are located at about 15 East while those at local solar noon are near 165 West. In the east these include most of western Europe and Iceland and the Atlantic Ridge while in the west areas of the western Aleutians, Alaska, Hawaii, Tonga/Fiji/New Zealand and portions of the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge are included. These are the most likely areas to see significant tidal triggering with this new moon. Other areas may also see tidal promotion in the next week especially at times of large solar flares and near local solar midnight and solar noon. The likelihood of a strong associated earthquake with this new moon are considered moderate to high in the next week (July 1-10, 2024).

July 6, 2024 is the first day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Caucasus MB>=4.0 18 2.3 0.04

Idaho MB>=1.0 20 2.6 0.03

Italy MB>=4.0 43 2.8 0.02

Kuriles MB>=4.0 34 2.9 0.01

Tonga MB>=4.0 27 1.9 0.05

Mammoth Lakes MB>=0.0 46 2.0 0.05

Mammoth Lakes MB>=2.0 37 1.9 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Central America MB>=4.0 -10 -2.0 0.05

Canada MB>=0.0 -29 -2.5 0.03

So. Alaska MB>=3.0 -7 -2.2 0.05

WEATHER PHENOMENA

July 4, 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA

---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------

TD ALETTA 2024-07-05 00:00 UT 18.9N 109.3W 040 kts East of Socorro Island

TD Aletta formed today in the area east of Socorro Island, Mexico with winds up to 40 kts. It is expected to track to the west over the next several days and could impact regional seismicity in Revillo Gigedo and Socorro area and possibly in western Mexico in Michoacan and Colima States.

HURRICANE BERYL

---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------

HURR BERYL 2024-07-05 00:00 UT 20.7N 88.3W 85 kts Yucatan, Mexico

Hurricane Beryl continued today in the area of the Yucatan, Mexico with winds up to 85 kts (category 2). This is the earliest a category 4-5 hurricane has hit the Caribbean in modern history. Considerable damage was done in the Windward and Trinidad and Tobago areas and in Jamaica upon landfall along with several moderate earthquakes probably promoted by stresses from this storm. This system is expected to track to the north and west over the next week making a second landfall on July 8 in Southern Texas. It could help promote enhanced seismicity the area of eastern Mexico including the possibility of a strong regional earthquake as it moves north of this area. Enhanced seismicity is also likely with substantial flooding in southern Texas at the beginning of the week. An active seismic center near 28N 98W could be activated at this time.

A tropical cyclone may be forming south of Central Mexico. This system is currently located near 14N 105W and moving NNE with winds up to 15 kts. No impact on regional seismicity is expected at this time.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

July 5, 2024 is the first day of the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Alaska MB>=4.0 9 2.6 0.03

Aleutians MB>=4.0 38 2.9 0.02

New Britain MB>=4.0 26 2.7 0.02

N Indonesia MB>=4.0 37 2.0 0.05

Central So America MB>=4.0 20 2.0 0.05

Kuriles MB>=4.0 36 3.1 0.01

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

East Pacific Rise MB>=4.0 -40 -2.4 0.04

Canada MB>=0.0 -23 -2.0 0.05

WEATHER PHENOMENA

July 3, 2024

HURRICANE BERYL

---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------

HURR BERYL 2024-07-04 00:00 UT 18.5N 81.0W 120 kts West of Jamaica

Hurricane Beryl continued today in the area west of Jamaica and south of Cuba with winds up to 120 kts (category 4). This is the earliest a category 4-5 hurricane has hit the Caribbean in modern history. Considerable damage was done in the Windward and Trinidad and Tobago areas upon landfall and moderate earthquakes occurred today in the Windward and Leeward Islands, probably promoted by stresses from this storm. This system is expected to track to the north and west over the next week. It could help promote enhanced seismicity the area of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala and eastern Mexico including the possibility of a strong regional earthquake as it moves north of this area. Enhanced seismicity is also likely but moderate in Puerto Rico and Jamaica as it makes landfall there July 3.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

July 4, 2024 is the twenty-eighth day after the beginning of the lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Alaska MB>=4.0 6 2.0 0.05

Aleutians MB>=4.0 40 3.1 0.01

New Britain MB>=4.0 25 2.6 0.03

So. California MB>=3.0 67 2.3 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Central So America MB>=4.0 -20 -2.0 0.05

Print Sitemap

Web View Mobile View

Logout Edit page