WEATHER PHENOMENA

 

Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of  the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models.  Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:

 

 

HURRICANE ORLENE (DEPRESSSION 16E)

 

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HURR  ORLENE   2022-10-03  00:00 UT  23.3N  105.6W   55 kts  West of Michoacan, Mexico

 

 

Hurricane Orlene (16E) made landfall today in Jalisco, Mexico as a class 3-4 hurricane with winds up to 130 kts. It is expected to track to the north and continue to enhance aftershocks in the next several days in Michoacan, Baja and Colima, Mexico.

 

A tropical cyclone may be forming south of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 24 kts. It is expected to circle in the area of 15N 111W for several days and not to enhance regional seismicity at this time.

 

A tropical cyclone may also be forming in the Central Atlantic in the area east of Venezuela. It is expected to track to the west making landfall in Venezuela in several days. NHC expects this storm is likely to become a Tropical Cyclone with 20% probability in the next two days. It may impact seismicity in the eastern Caribbean and Venezuela over the next several days.

 

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE 

 

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TD    12E      2022-10-03  00:00 UT  15.0N   27.1W   30 kts  Northern Mid-Atlantic

 

TD 12E formed in the North Atlantic today east of  the mid-Atlantic Ridge with winds up to 30 km. This storm is expected to track to the north and not to threaten regional seismicity at this time.

 

 

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

 

 

October 3, 2022 is the eighth day after the beginning of the new lunar month.  Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

 

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

 

Pacific-Antarctic Ridge MB>=4.0 58 2.0 0.05

Central So America MB>=4.0 23 2.3 0.04

Mt ST. Helens MB>=0.0 40 3.0 0.01

 

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

 

 

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

 

Siberia MB>=4.0 -37 -2.0 0.05