WEATHER PHENOMENA

 

Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of  the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models.  Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:

 

TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN

 

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TS    DOLPHIN  2020-09-24  00:00 UT  32.9N  141.7E   45 kts  West of Izu Islands

 

TS Dolphin (14W) continued today in the area west of the Izu Islands, Japan with winds up to 45 kts. It is expected to track to the north and to turn to the east avoiding the Island of Honshu. Enhanced seismicity may occur, but is not expected to be strong in the region of Honshu, Japan.

 

TROPICAL STORM BETA  

 

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TS    BETA     2020-09-24  00:00 UT  31.9N   91.0W   30 kts  Louisiana    

 

TS Beta (TD 22) continued today in the area of Louisiana with winds up to 30 kts. It is expected to dissipate over Louisiana and Mississippi in the next several days.

 

 

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL (17E)        

 

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TS    LOWELL   2020-09-24  00:00 UT  20.9N  122.4W   50 kts  South of Baja California

 

Tropical Storm Lowell continued south of Baja California, Mexico today with winds up to 50 kts. This system is currently  expected to track to the northwest but not to impact regional seismicity at this time.

 

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

 

 

September 24, 2020 is the seventh day after the beginning of the lunar month.  Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month;  statistical z-value and significance level) are:

 

Region          Magnitude range %change  z-value Significance level

 

No Regions

 

 

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

 

 

Region          Magnitude range %change  z-value Significance level

 

East US                   MB>=1.0   -13 -2.5  0.03