WEATHER PHENOMENA

 

Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of  the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models.  Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S        

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

TC    08S      2022-01-27  00:00 UT  16.4S   83.7E   45 kts  South of India

 

 

Tropical cyclone 08S formed in the South Indian Ocean with winds up to 45 kts.   Little effect on regional seismicity is expected with this storm. The antipode is at 13N 90W in Guatemala and eastern Mexico but this storm is probably too weak to significantly affect seismicity at the antipode.

 

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

 

The New Moon will arrive at 05:46 UT on February 1, 2022. Longitudes near 77 West and 103 East are at solar midnight and solar noon at this time. These include areas of western South America and Central America and the Caribbean in the west and Sumatra and eastern Asia in the east. These are the most likely areas to see seismicity enhanced by tidal stresses during the next week and include areas where a strong earthquake is likely in this period. Other areas may also see enhanced seismicity near local solar midnight and noon during this time.

 

January 27, 2022 is the twenty-fifth day after the beginning of the new lunar month.  Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

 

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

 

Antarctica MB>=4.0 343 2.8 0.02

India MB>=4.0 48 2.0 0.05

Yellowstone MB>=2.0 20 2.1 0.05

 

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

 

 

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

 

Arctic MB>=4.0 -36 -2.3 0.05