WEATHER PHENOMENA
March 15, 2025
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL CYCLONE JUDE (25S)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC JUDE 2025-03-16 00:00 UT 31.4S 57.4E 055 kts South Indian Ocean east of Madagascar
Tropical Cyclone Jude (25S) continued today in the area south of Madagascar with winds up to 45 kts. It is expected to track to the south and east over the next several days. The antipode of this storm today is at 31N 123W in the north Pacific and is aseismic. Further seismic triggering from TC Jude is unlikely at this time. A Moderate earthquake of M 4.4 in Hawaii today may have been promoted by energy from this source.
TC Jude is tracking to the southeast at a rapid rate of speed and will probably encounter an area antipodal to southern California and western Los Angeles later today. Previous history suggests a moderate aftershocks in western Los Angeles at 34N 118W is possible when TC Jude reaches the antipode to that position.
TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY
The full moon arrived on March 14, 2025 at 06:59 UT. This entailed a total lunar eclipse visible in the Pacific, Americas, Western Europe and Africa with maximum eclipse near 0N 105W near the Galapagos Islands. Longitudes near local solar noon are near 105W while those at solar midnight are near 75E. These include in the west portions of the North-east Pacific Rise, western Mexico and central North America; in the east areas of central or southeastern Asia and Sumatra are included in this longitude zone. These are the areas most likely to see significant tidal triggering with this full moon and eclipse. As these include limited areas of high seismicity the likelihood of a major earthquake within about 4 days of March 14 would normally be deemed moderate to low. But this full moon could coincide with a major geomagnetic storm and this may help promote a strong to major earthquake at this time most likely in the region of western Mexico or near the antipode in southeastern Asia.
March 16, 2025 is the sixteenth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
Kermadec MB>=4.0 14 2.0 0.05
Nevada MB>=2.0 22 3.3 0.01
Spain MB>=4.0 35 2.5 0.03
Puerto Rico MB>=4.0 18 2.0 0.05
Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
So.California MB>=0.0 -8 -2.1 0.05
WEATHER PHENOMENA
March 14, 2025
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL CYCLONE JUDE (25S)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC JUDE 2025-03-15 00:00 UT 25.0S 44.6E 070 kts South Indian Ocean east of Madagascar
Tropical Cyclone Jude (25S) continued today in the area south of Madagascar with winds up to 70 kts. It is expected to track to the south and east over the next several days. The antipode of this storm today is at 25N 136W in the north Pacific and is aseismic. Further seismic triggering from TC Jude is unlikely at this time. A Moderate earthquake of M 4.4 in Hawaii today may have been promoted by energy from this source.
TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY
The full moon arrived on March 14, 2025 at 06:59 UT. This entailed a total lunar eclipse visible in the Pacific, Americas, Western Europe and Africa with maximum eclipse near 0N 105W near the Galapagos Islands. Longitudes near local solar noon are near 105W while those at solar midnight are near 75E. These include in the west portions of the North-east Pacific Rise, western Mexico and central North America; in the east areas of central or southeastern Asia and Sumatra are included in this longitude zone. These are the areas most likely to see significant tidal triggering with this full moon and eclipse. As these include limited areas of high seismicity the likelihood of a major earthquake within about 4 days of March 14 would normally be deemed moderate to low. But this full moon could coincide with a major geomagnetic storm and this may help promote a strong to major earthquake at this time most likely in the region of western Mexico or near the antipode in southeastern Asia.
March 15, 2025 is the fifteenth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
NE Europe MB>=4.0 11 2.5 0.04
Solomon Islands MB>=4.0 26 2.6 0.03
Japan MB>=4.0 16 2.4 0.04
Spain MB>=4.0 30 2.2 0.05
Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
No Regions
WEATHER PHENOMENA
March 13, 2025
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL CYCLONE IVONE (24S)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC IVONE 2025-03-14 00:00 UT 25.3S 70.1E 040 kts South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone Ivone (24S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean with winds up to 40 kts. It is expected to track to the south and west over the next several days. The antipode of this storm today is at 25N 110W in the Gulf of California. This is a seismic area and is likely to see seismic enhancement as TC Ivone is near the antipode.
The areas of Michoacan westward to the Gulf of California are under a moderate seismic for the duration of Ivone at the antipode.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JUDE (25S)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC JUDE 2025-03-14 00:00 UT 24.6S 43.3E 070 kts South Indian Ocean east of Madagascar
Tropical Cyclone Jude (25S) continued today in the area of the Madagascar with winds up to 70 kts. It is expected to track to the south and east over the next several days. The antipode of this storm today is at 24N 137W in the north Pacific and is aseismic. Further seismic triggering from TC Jude is unlikely at this time.
TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY
The full moon will arrive on March 14, 2025 at 06:59 UT. This will entail a total lunar eclipse visible in the Pacific, Americas, Western Europe and Africa with maximum eclipse near 0N 105W near the Galapagos Islands. Longitudes near local solar noon are near 105W while those at solar midnight are near 75E. These include in the west portions of the North-east Pacific Rise, western Mexico and central North America; in the east areas of central or southeastern Asia and Sumatra are included in this longitude zone. These are the areas most likely to see significant tidal triggering with this full moon and eclipse. As these include limited areas of high seismicity the likelihood of a major earthquake within about 4 days of March 14 would normally be deemed moderate to low. But this full moon could coincide with a major geomagnetic storm and this may help promote a strong to major earthquake at this time most likely in the region of western Mexico or near the antipode in southeastern Asia.
March 14, 2025 is the fourteenth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
Solomon Islands MB>=4.0 23 2.3 0.04
Spain MB>=4.0 38 2.7 0.02
Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
Rocky Mountains MB>=4.0 -54 -2.1 0.05
China MB>=4.0 -18 -2.1 0.05
WEATHER PHENOMENA
March 12, 2025
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL CYCLONE IVONE (24S)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC IVONE 2025-03-13 00:00 UT 20.3S 71.1E 045 kts South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone Ivone (24S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean with winds up to 45 kts. It is expected to track to the south and west over the next several days. The antipode of this storm today is at 20N 109W in western Jalisco and Colima and the Gulf of California. This is a seismic area and is likely to see seismic enhancement as TC Ivone is near the antipode.
The areas of Michoacan westward to the Gulf of California are under a moderate seismic for the duration of Ivone at the antipode.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JUDE (25S)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC JUDE 2025-03-13 00:00 UT 17.9S 35.5E 033 kts South Indian Ocean east of Madagascar
Tropical Cyclone Jude (25S) continued today in the area of the Mozambique with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track to the south and west over the next several days. The antipode of this storm today is at 17N 140W in the north Pacific and is aseismic. Further seismic triggering from TC Jude is unlikely at this time. Moderate earthquakes today of M 3.5 and 3.7 in Hawaii may have been promoted by energy from this source.
TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY
The full moon will arrive on March 14, 2025 at 06:59 UT. This will entail a total lunar eclipse visible in the Pacific, Americas, Western Europe and Africa with maximum eclipse near 0N 105W near the Galapagos Islands. Longitudes near local solar noon are near 105W while those at solar midnight are near 75E. These include in the west portions of the North-east Pacific Rise, western Mexico and central North America; in the east areas of central or southeastern Asia and Sumatra are included in this longitude zone. These are the areas most likely to see significant tidal triggering with this full moon and eclipse. As these include limited areas of high seismicity the likelihood of a major earthquake within about 4 days of March 14 would normally be deemed moderate to low. But this full moon could coincide with a major geomagnetic storm and this may help promote a strong to major earthquake at this time most likely in the region of western Mexico or near the antipode in southeastern Asia.
March 13, 2025 is the thirteenth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
Central America MB>=4.0 10 2.1 0.05
Global MB>=6.0 15 2.5 0.03
Utah MB>=0.0 14 2.7 0.03
Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
Central California MB>=2.0 -8 -2.2 0.05
WEATHER PHENOMENA
March 11, 2025
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL CYCLONE IVONE (24S)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC IVONE 2025-03-12 00:00 UT 17.3S 82.1E 055 kts South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone Ivone (24S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean with winds up to 55 kts. It is expected to track to the south and west over the next several days. The antipode of this storm today is at 17N 98W in central Mexico. This is a seismic area and is likely to see seismic enhancement as TC Ivone is near the antipode.
The areas of Oaxaca westward to Michoacan are under a moderate seismic for the duration of Ivone at the antipode.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JUDE (25S)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC JUDE 2025-03-12 00:00 UT 16.8S 40.5E 050 kts South Indian Ocean east of Madagascar
Tropical Cyclone Jude (25S) dissipated today in the area of the Mozambique with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track to the south and west over the next several days. The antipode of this storm today is at 17N 140W in the north Pacific and is aseismic. Further seismic triggering from TC Jude is unlikely at this time and previous expectations for Hawaii are cancelled.
TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY
The full moon will arrive on March 14, 2025 at 06:59 UT. This will entail a total lunar eclipse visible in the Pacific, Americas, Western Europe and Africa with maximum eclipse near 0N 105W near the Galapagos Islands. Longitudes near local solar noon are near 105W while those at solar midnight are near 75E. These include in the west portions of the North-east Pacific Rise, western Mexico and central North America; in the east areas of central or southeastern Asia and Sumatra are included in this longitude zone. These are the areas most likely to see significant tidal triggering with this full moon and eclipse. As these include limited areas of high seismicity the likelihood of a major earthquake within about 4 days of March 14 would normally be deemed moderate to low. But this full moon could coincide with a major geomagnetic storm and this may help promote a strong to major earthquake at this time most likely in the region of western Mexico or near the antipode in southeastern Asia.
March 12, 2025 is the twelfth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
Australia MB>=4.0 38 3.0 0.01
So Indonesia MB>=4.0 49 3.7 0.01
Global MB>=5.0 5 1.9 0.05
Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
Tonga MB>=4.0 -28 -2.0 0.05
Turkey MB>=4.0 -10 -2.0 0.05
WEATHER PHENOMENA
March 10, 2025
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL CYCLONE IVONE (24S)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC IVONE 2025-03-11 00:00 UT 20.3S 79.1E 055 kts South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone Ivone (24S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean with winds up to 55 kts. It is expected to track to the south and west over the next several days. The antipode of this storm today is at 20N 101W in central Mexico. This is a seismic area and is likely to see seismic enhancement as TC Ivone is near the antipode.
The areas of Oaxaca westward to Michoacan are under a moderate seismic for the duration of Ivone at the antipode.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JUDE (25S)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC JUDE 2025-03-11 00:00 UT 16.8S 40.5E 050 kts South Indian Ocean east of Madagascar
Tropical Cyclone Jude (25S) dissipated today in the area of the Mozambique with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track to the south and west over the next several days. The antipode of this storm today is at 17N 140W in the north Pacific and is aseismic. Further seismic triggering from TC Jude is unlikely at this time and previous expectations for Hawaii are cancelled.
TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY
The full moon will arrive on March 14, 2025 at 06:59 UT. This will entail a total lunar eclipse visible in the Pacific, Americas, Western Europe and Africa with maximum eclipse near 0N 105W near the Galapagos Islands. Longitudes near local solar noon are near 105W while those at solar midnight are near 75E. These include in the west portions of the North-east Pacific Rise, western Mexico and central North America; in the east areas of central Asia are included in this longitude zone. These are the areas most likely to see significant tidal triggering with this full moon and eclipse. As these include limited areas of high seismicity the likelihood of a major earthquake within about 4 days of March 14 would normally be deemed moderate to low. But this full moon could coincide with a major geomagnetic storm and this may help promote a strong to major earthquake at this time most likely in the region of western Mexico.
March 11, 2025 is the eleventh day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
So. Alaska MB>=3.0 9 2.7 0.02
Australia MB>=4.0 33 2.6 0.03
New Madrid MB>=0.0 34 3.4 0.01
So Indonesia MB>=4.0 42 3.1 0.01
Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
Geysers MB>=0.0 -6 -2.2 0.05
NE Europe MB>=4.0 -10 -2.3 0.04
Tonga MB>=4.0 -29 -2.0 0.05
WEATHER PHENOMENA
March 9, 2025
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL CYCLONE IVONE (24S)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC IVONE 2025-03-10 00:00 UT 17.2S 83.1E 060 kts South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone Ivone (24S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean with winds up to 60 kts. It is expected to track to the south and west over the next several days. The antipode of this storm today is at 16N 97W in Oaxaca Mexico. This is a seismic area and is likely to see seismic enhancement as TC Ivone is near the antipode.
The areas of Chiapas and Oaxaca are under a moderate seismic for the duration of Ivone at the antipode. TC Ivone is expected to track such that the antipode will be represented in Mexico near 19N from about 97 to 110 West. A series of moderate events along this line is likely at this time.
This could include a strong earthquake around the time of the full moon on
March 14 or with a major solar flare.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JUDE (25S)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC JUDE 2025-03-10 00:00 UT 15.8S 43.5E 080 kts South Indian Ocean east of Madagascar
Tropical Cyclone Jude (25S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean with winds up to 80 kts. It is expected to track to the south and west over the next several days. The antipode of this storm today is at 15N 137W in the north Pacific and is aseismic. TC Jude is likely to continue inland to a point approximately antipodal to Hawaii by March 11-12, 2025 and is likely to enhance seismicity and volcanism in Hawaii at that time.
TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY
The full moon will arrive on March 14, 2025 at 06:59 UT. This will entail a total lunar eclipse visible in the Pacific, Americas, Western Europe and Africa with maximum eclipse near 0N 105W near the Galapagos Islands. Longitudes near local solar noon are near 105W while those at solar midnight are near 75E. These include in the west portions of the North-east Pacific Rise, western Mexico and central North America; in the east areas of central Asia are included in this longitude zone. These are the areas most likely to see significant tidal triggering with this full moon and eclipse. As these include limited areas of high seismicity the likelihood of a major earthquake within about 4 days of March 14 would normally be deemed moderate to low. But this full moon could coincide with a major geomagnetic storm and this may help promote a strong to major earthquake at this time most likely in the region of western Mexico.
March 10, 2025 is the tenth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
Alaska MB>=3.0 6 2.0 0.05
Greece MB>=4.0 8 2.0 0.05
Hawaii MB>=2.0 19 2.7 0.02
Kuriles MB>=4.0 22 1.9 0.05
Mammoth Lakes MB>=3.0 19 2.2 0.05
East Pacific Rise MB>=4.0 38 2.3 0.05
Hindu Kush MB>=4.0 20 2.9 0.01
Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
No Regions
WEATHER PHENOMENA
March 8, 2025
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL CYCLONE IVONE (24S)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC IVONE 2025-03-09 00:00 UT 15.2S 84.1E 065 kts South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone Ivone (24S) formed today in the area of the south Indian Ocean with winds up to 65 kts. It is expected to track to the south and west over the next several days. The antipode of this storm today is at 16N 96W in Oaxaca Mexico. This is a seismic area and is likely to see seismic enhancement as TC Ivone is near the antipode.
The areas of Chiapas and Oaxaca are under a moderate seismic for the duration of Ivone at the antipode.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JUDE (25S)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC JUDE 2025-03-09 00:00 UT 14.8S 43.5E 070 kts South Indian Ocean east of Madagascar
Tropical Cyclone Jude (25S) formed today in the area of the south Indian Ocean with winds up to 85 kts. It is expected to track to the south and west over the next several days. The antipode of this storm today is at 15N 137W in the north Pacific and is aseismic. TC Jude is likely to continue inland to a point approximately antipodal to Hawaii by March 11-12, 2025 and is likely to enhance seismicity and volcanism in Hawaii at that time.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED (18P)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC ALFRED 2025-03-09 00:00 UT 27.5S 152.7E 045 kts East of northern Australia
TC Alfred is made landfall near Brisbane north of Sydney, Australia August 8-9, 2025, 2025
winds up to 45 kts. It then stalled and tracked to the north. Considerable damage
to property was reported on the web in the Brisbane, Australia area. At least one
person was killed by this storm. Landfall of this Cyclone was expected in this summary to help promote seismicity at
nodal distances from Australia, especially near the third node (120 degrees)
and the seventh node at 103 degrees which run along active seismic areas.
The forecast for global seismic enhancement with this storm as published
in the previous issue of this summary read:
"This is the strongest Tropical Cyclone to hit eastern Australia
in about 50 years. Some regional seismic enhancemnet is possible in eastern
Australia and New South Wales in the next several days. The antipode of this
expected landfall is at 28N 28W - in the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge area. This
area is not at a precise antipode to a regional seismic center, but diffuse
seismicity in the North Atlantic Ridge, especially near the active area of the
Canary Islands, is possible with this landfall.
At the moment the most likely earthquakes associated with landfall of TC Alfred
around March 7-8 appear to be near 103 degrees from that landfall point which
follows the San Andreas fault in Baja and in Western California north to Washington State
including the area off the coast of Northern California north to Vancouver Island
and southern Alaska where stresses may maximize. Other regions at this distance from TC Alfred landfall include
South Africa and Coquimbo, Chile where enhanced seismicity is expected with landfall of TC Alfred.
is also A second distance is at the third node (120 degrees) from the landfall.
In the past day several significant earthquakes have occurred near this
distance from the expected landfall. This included the strongest earthquake
of the day - an M 6.1 in Atacama, Chile; a series of moderate events in
Nicaragua and an M 4.9 in the Caucasus area of Russia.
Other regions at this distance from TC Alfred landfall include
Armenia, Azerbaijan, the Caucasus where enhanced seismicity
is also expected with landfall.
This situation has not been previously examined in this summary. What can be said is that the wave of transitional energy from
landfall of TC Alfred will likely peak in intensity near the third node (120 degrees) and/or 103 degrees from the landfall point.
As this includes much of the active seismic area of western U.S. it could
initiate an moderate to strong event or period of active seismicity in that region. This may
be delayed several days as new stresses take effect. Other areas at or near 103 degrees from the Australia landfall location
are in Pakistan and Afghanistan and off the coast of Washington and Oregon and in Bio-Bio Chile.
As TC Alfred tracks into the landfall, it is possible this is already being observed to some extent as a series of moderate earthquakes
in northwestern Washington State and western Canada. An M 3.2 off the coast of
Oregon today and an M 2.7 offshore Northern California and an M 2.3 in the Southern California Channel Islands are at 103 degrees from TC Alfred landfall and could indicate the
location of an upcoming significant regional earthquake. The area from San Jose northward
to San Francisco Bay is also showing some unrest at this time. The immediate
effects of landfall of TC Alfred on Central California are not yet apparent
but are likely to be first observed in early to mid- March 8, 2025 and are
likely to included a series of unusual regional earthquakes in the next two days." (March 7, 2025)
Early indications are that this forecast has exactly matched the seismic character
of late March 7 and March 8. Within hours of landfall a series of moderate
earthquakes occurred at the third node and near 103 degrees from the landfall
location. In California these included an M 2.5 in San Francisco and an M 3.8 along the northern Baja border
and to the north an M 4.0 in the Vancouver Island area of British Columbia, Canada.
(at 103-105 degrees from Brisbane). It also included an M 3.5 in South Africa
at this distance. Seismicity at the third node (120 degrees) included a number
of moderate events in Peru (up to M 5.5); Nicaragua, but the most widely
felt earthquake of the day occurred at 120 degrees from Brisbane in the area
of Armenia and did some damage in that area. Lesser, but unusual earthquakes
also were recorded north of Bakersfield, California and in southern and
southeastern Alaska at the time of landfall of TC Alfred.
At this writing no strong or major earthquakes have thus far been associated
with this cyclone landfall, but this could change.
Looking forward the area of southern Japan near the Ryukyu Islands and Kyushu
is at the sixth node (60 degrees) from TC Alfred landfall and could be vulnerable
to seismic triggering at this time. Several moderate earthquake including
an M 5.3 have hit Honshu during the landfall period.
TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY
March 9, 2025 is the ninth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
Mt ST. Helens MB>=1.0 55 4.1 0.01
Washington MB>=3.0 19 3.3 0.01
JMA MB>=4.0 14 2.0 0.05
Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
East US MB>=1.0 -12 -2.3 0.04
WEATHER PHENOMENA
March 7, 2025
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED (18P)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC ALFRED 2025-03-08 00:00 UT 27.5S 153.7E 055 kts East of northern Australia
TC Alfred is made landfall near Brisbane north of Sydney, Australia August 8, 2025
winds up to 45 kts. It then stalled and tracked to the north. Considerable damage
to property was reported on the web in the Brisbane, Australia area. At least one
person was killed by this storm. Landfall of this Cyclone was expected in this summary to help promote seismicity at
nodal distances from Australia, especially near the third node (120 degrees)
and the seventh node at 103 degrees which run along active seismic areas.
The forecast for global seismic enhancement with this storm as published
in the previous issue of this summary read:
"This is the strongest Tropical Cyclone to hit eastern Australia
in about 50 years. Some regional seismic enhancemnet is possible in eastern
Australia and New South Wales in the next several days. The antipode of this
expected landfall is at 28N 28W - in the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge area. This
area is not at a precise antipode to a regional seismic center, but diffuse
seismicity in the North Atlantic Ridge, especially near the active area of the
Canary Islands, is possible with this landfall.
At the moment the most likely earthquakes associated with landfall of TC Alfred
around March 7-8 appear to be near 103 degrees from that landfall point which
follows the San Andreas fault in Baja and in Western California north to Washington State
including the area off the coast of Northern California north to Vancouver Island
and southern Alaska where stresses may maximize. Other regions at this distance from TC Alfred landfall include
South Africa and Coquimbo, Chile where enhanced seismicity is expected with landfall of TC Alfred.
is also A second distance is at the third node (120 degrees) from the landfall.
In the past day several significant earthquakes have occurred near this
distance from the expected landfall. This included the strongest earthquake
of the day - an M 6.1 in Atacama, Chile; a series of moderate events in
Nicaragua and an M 4.9 in the Caucasus area of Russia.
Other regions at this distance from TC Alfred landfall include
Armenia, Azerbaijan, the Caucasus where enhanced seismicity
is also expected with landfall.
This situation has not been previously examined in this summary. What can be said is that the wave of transitional energy from
landfall of TC Alfred will likely peak in intensity near the third node (120 degrees) and/or 103 degrees from the landfall point.
As this includes much of the active seismic area of western U.S. it could
initiate an moderate to strong event or period of active seismicity in that region. This may
be delayed several days as new stresses take effect. Other areas at or near 103 degrees from the Australia landfall location
are in Pakistan and Afghanistan and off the coast of Washington and Oregon and in Bio-Bio Chile.
As TC Alfred tracks into the landfall, it is possible this is already being observed to some extent as a series of moderate earthquakes
in northwestern Washington State and western Canada. An M 3.2 off the coast of
Oregon today and an M 2.7 offshore Northern California and an M 2.3 in the Southern California Channel Islands are at 103 degrees from TC Alfred landfall and could indicate the
location of an upcoming significant regional earthquake. The area from San Jose northward
to San Francisco Bay is also showing some unrest at this time. The immediate
effects of landfall of TC Alfred on Central California are not yet apparent
but are likely to be first observed in early to mid- March 8, 2025 and are
likely to included a series of unusual regional earthquakes in the next two days." (March 7, 2025)
Early indications are that this forecast has exactly matched the seismic character
of late March 7 and March 8. Within hours of landfall a series of moderate
earthquakes occurred at the third node and near 103 degrees from the landfall
location. In California these included an M 2.5 in San Francisco and an M 3.8 along the northern Baja border
and to the north an M 4.0 in the Vancouver Island area of British Columbia, Canada.
(at 103-105 degrees from Brisbane). It also included an M 3.5 in South Africa
at this distance. Seismicity at the third node (120 degrees) included a number
of moderate events in Peru (up to M 5.5); Nicaragua, but the most widely
felt earthquake of the day occurred at 120 degrees from Brisbane in the area
of Armenia and did some damage in that area. Lesser, but unusual earthquakes
also were recorded north of Bakersfield, California and in southern and
southeastern Alaska at the time of landfall of TC Alfred.
At this writing no strong or major earthquakes have thus far been associated
with this cyclone landfall, but this could change.
Looking forward the area of southern Japan near the Ryukyu Islands and Kyushu
is at the sixth node (60 degrees) from TC Alfred landfall and could be vulnerable
to seismic triggering at this time. Several moderate earthquake including
an M 5.3 have hit Honshu during the landfall period.
TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY
March 8, 2025 is the eighth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
Pacific-Antarctic Ridge MB>=4.0 58 2.0 0.05
Central So America MB>=4.0 23 2.3 0.04
Mt ST. Helens MB>=0.0 40 3.0 0.01
Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
Siberia MB>=4.0 -37 -2.0 0.05
W
WEATHER PHENOMENA
March 3, 2025
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL CYCLONE HONDE (23S)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC HONDE 2025-03-04 00:00 UT 32.6S 49.0E 65 kts South of Madagascar
TC Honde (TC 23S) continued today in the area south of Madagascar with winds up to 65 kts. It is expected to track to the east and south over the next several day and may enhance regional seismicity slightly in the process. The Antipode at 32N 131W is in the north Pacific east of Hawaii and west of southern California, a relatively quiet seismic area. No immediate seismic enhancement in this area is likely in the immediate future.
TC Honde is expected to track to the south and east over the next several days. It will reach a point near 40S 55E late on UT March 6 to early UT March 7 and to dissipate with
winds up to 40 kts at this time. The antipode of this is at 40N 125W - an area
which saw an M 7.0 earthquake on December 5, 2024. It is possible that antipodal
triggering from TC Honde will help bring an enhanced aftershock in this regioin
off the coast of Northern California at this time. A moderate earthquake is possible \
near this epicenter off northern California March 6-7. A moderate seismic
watch is in effect for this area at that time.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED (18P)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC ALFRED 2025-03-04 00:00 UT 27.8S 158.5E 070 kts East of northern Australia
Tropical Cyclone Alfred (18P) continued today in the area East of northern Australia with winds up to 70 kts. It is expected to track to the east and south over the next several days. Some enhanced seismicity in the areas off northeastern Australia is possible in the short term including but not limited to Queensland where a moderate quake is possible with TC Alfred. The antipode at 28N 22W is in the North Atlantic Ocean Ridge and some enhancement of seismicity in this region is possible as this storm proceeds. It is expected to turn to the west today making landfall near Bribane, Australia around March 6-7 with winds up to 55 kts.
TC Alfred is expected to make landfall near Brisbane north of Sydney, Australia around March 6-7 with
winds up to 40 kts. This is the strongest Tropical Cyclone to hit eastern Australia
in about 50 years. Some regional seismic enhancemnet is possible in eastern
Australia and New South Wales in the next several days. The antipode of this
expected landfall is at 28N 28W - in the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge area. This
area is not at a precise antipode to a regional seismic center, but diffuse
seismicity in the North Atlantic Ridge is possible with this landfall.
In this summary we introduce a new map showing possible interactions with
other areas of the earth based on the expected landfall coordinates. This
is not a lot different from expected nodal interactions from large earthquakes.
At the moment the most likely earthquakes associated with landfall of TC Alfred
around March 6 appear to be near 103 degrees from that landfall point which
follows the San Andreas fault in Baja and in Western California north to Washington State
including the area off the coast of Northern California where stresses may
also occur from TC Honde. A moderate quake is expected in this area at that
time. Other areas at or near 103 degrees from the Australia landfall location
are in Pakistan and Afghanistan and off the coast of Oregon and in Bio-Bio Chile.
TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY
March 4, 2025 is the fourth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
Caribbean MB>=4.0 20 2.3 0.05
Caucasus MB>=4.0 25 3.1 0.01
East Pacific Rise MB>=4.0 35 2.1 0.05
Japan MB>=4.0 23 3.3 0.01
JMA MB>=4.0 21 2.9 0.01
Kanto MB>=4.0 61 3.9 0.01
So.California MB>=0.0 11 3.1 0.01
Indian Ocean MB>=4.0 16 1.9 0.05
Kamchatka MB>=4.0 33 2.4 0.04
Washington MB>=2.0 33 3.1 0.01
West Pacific MB>=4.0 23 2.3 0.05
Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
China MB>=4.0 -17 -2.1 0.05
Italy MB>=4.0 -30 -2.0 0.05
EATHER PHENOMENA
March 2, 2025
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL CYCLONE HONDE (23S)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC HONDE 2025-03-03 00:00 UT 27.3S 46.8E 70 kts South of Madagascar
TC Honde (TC 23S) continued today in the area south of Madagascar with winds up to 70 kts. It is expected to track to the east and south over the next several day and may enhance regional seismicity slightly in the process. The Antipode at 24N 140W is in the north Pacific southeast of Hawaii, a relatively quiet seismic area. No immediate seismic enhancement in this area is likely in the immediate future.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GARANCE (22S)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC GARANCE 2025-03-03 00:00 UT 34.2S 62.0E 045 kts South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone Garance (22S) continued today in the area of south Indian Ocean with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track to the east and south over the next several days. Some enhanced seismicity in the south Indian Ridge is possible in the sort term.
As TC GARANCE passed over Reunion and Mauritius with winds up to 155 kph fouir
people in La Reunion were killed. The storm left 953 homeless; 160,000 without electricity and 310,000 without
water after blowing away roofs and cutting power and water supplies in Madagascar on February 28, 2025.
The antipode at 34N 118W is near Los Angeles, California and is a seismic zone. Some triggering could occur in this area. The track
of TC Garance, however takes it near 34S 62E around March 2-3, 2025 near the maximum of this
storm. This could be an indication, that if Los Angeles (at the antipode 34N 118W) is to see a moderate to
strong earthquake at this time, this would be the most likely timing.
If such a scenario should occur current conditions favor a moderate quake
near western Los Angeles near Los Osos and Santa Barbara or in the channel
to the south. Residents of these areas should be aware of this moderate possibility. Therefore a seismic watch is in effect for southern California in the Los Angeles
area for the first five days of March, 2025. On March 1, Garnce began to weaken
but remains on the original trajectory. This will probably lessen the seismic
impact at the antipode. But stopping over the LA antipode could enhance prospects
for a moderate earthquake (not large) in Southwestern California around March 2-4 so,
the current seismic watch will continue for that area. A seismic watch indicates that
conditions may be right for the triggering of a significant regional earthquake
in the watch period. Updates will follow.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED (18P)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC ALFRED 2025-03-03 00:00 UT 26.7S 158.2E 065 kts East of northern Australia
Tropical Cyclone Alfred (18P) continued today in the area East of northern Australia with winds up to 70 kts. It is expected to track to the east and south over the next several days. Some enhanced seismicity in the areas off northeastern Australia is possible in the short term including but not limited to Queensland where a moderate quake is possible with TC Alfred. The antipode at 26N 22W is in the North Atlantic Ocean Ridge and some enhancement of seismicity in this region is possible as this storm proceeds. It is expected to turn to the west today making landfall near Bribane, Australia around March 6-7 with winds up to 55 kts.
TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY
The new moon arrived on February 28, 2025 at 00:45 UT. Longitudes which are anti-solar (local solar midnight) at this time area near 10 West and those which are sub-solar (local solar noon) are near 170 East longitude. These include, in the west the areas of Iceland and western Europe and portions of the central mid-Atlantic near the equator and in the east areas of the New Zealand/Tonga/Fiji/Kermadec and Solomon, Santa Cruz, and Vanuatu Islands, Kamchatka and Northern Japan and the Kurils among others. These include areas where strong tidal effects and help promote strong to major earthquakes and such an event may be expected in the next week.
March 3, 2025 is the third day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
Alaska MB>=4.0 6 1.9 0.05
Central California MB>=2.0 9 2.3 0.05
Mammoth Lakes MB>=2.0 45 2.3 0.05
Mammoth Lakes MB>=3.0 23 2.6 0.03
Mt ST.Helens MB>=1.0 29 2.2 0.05
Spain MB>=4.0 31 2.2 0.05
Arctic MB>=4.0 36 2.3 0.04
Caribbean MB>=4.0 27 3.0 0.01
Caucasus MB>=4.0 23 2.9 0.01
So. California MB>=0.0 10 2.7 0.03
So. California MB>=2.0 22 1.9 0.05
Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
No Regions
WEATHER PHENOMENA
February 22, 2025
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED (18P)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC ALFRED 2025-02-23 00:00 UT 14.5S 152.7E 075 kts South of New Guinea
Tropical Cyclone Alfred (18P) formed today in the area of south of New Guinea with winds up to 75 kts. It is expected to track to the east and south over the next several days. Some enhanced seismicity in the areas of New Britain, New Guinea and the Solomon Islands is possible in the short term. The antipode at 14N 26W is east of the north Atlantic Ocean Ridge and some enhancement of seismicity in this region is possible as this storm proceeds.
TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE (19P)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC RAE 2025-02-23 00:00 UT 18.1S 179.3W 080 kts Tonga/Fiji
Tropical Cyclone Rae (19P) formed today in the area of south of New Guinea with winds up to 80 kts. It is expected to track to the south over the next several days. Some enhanced seismicity in the areas of Tonga and Fiji is possible in the short term. The antipode at 19N 1E is not an active seismic zone and little enhancement of seismicity in this region is likely as this storm proceeds.
TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY
The new moon arrived on February 28, 2025 at 00:45 UT. Longitudes which are anti-solar (local solar midnight) at this time area near 10 West and those which are sub-solar (local solar noon) are near 170 East longitude. These include, in the west the areas of Iceland and western Europe and portions of the central mid-Atlantic near the equator and in the east areas of the New Zealand/Tonga/Fiji/Kermadec and Solomon, Santa Cruz, and Vanuatu Islands, Kamchatka and Northern Japan and the Kurils among others. These include areas where strong tidal effects and help promote strong to major earthquakes and such an event may be expected in the next week.
February 23, 2024 is the twenty-fourth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
China MB>=4.0 21 2.5 0.04
Antarctica MB>=4.0 343 2.8 0.02
India MB>=4.0 58 2.5 0.04
Yellowstone MB>=1.0 31 3.3 0.01
Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
No Regions
WEATHER PHENOMENA
February 21, 2025
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC 18P 2025-02-22 00:00 UT 15.5S 149.7E 045 kts South of New Guinea
Tropical Cyclone 18P formed today in the area of south of New Guinea with winds up to 45 kts. It is expected to track to the east and south over the next several days. Some enhanced seismicity in the areas of New Britain, New Guinea and the Solomon Islands is possible in the short term. The antipode at 15N 31W is near the north Atlantic Ocean Ridge and some moderate enhancement of seismicity in this region is possible as this storm proceeds.
TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY
February 22, 2025 is the twenty-third day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
Caribbean MB>=4.0 22 2.4 0.04
Central California MB>=0.0 32 2.1 0.05
Central California MB>=2.0 11 2.9 0.02
Central California MB>=3.0 23 2.9 0.02
Mammoth Lakes MB>=0.0 56 2.5 0.04
San Andreas MB>=0.0 14 2.4 0.04
San Andreas MB>=3.0 38 2.7 0.02
So Asia MB>=4.0 50 3.6 0.01
Canada MB>=2.0 26 2.2 0.05
Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
No Regions
WEATHER PHENOMENA
February 20, 2025
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
No tropical cyclones are currently active.
TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY
February 21, 2025 is the twenty-second day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
Aleutians MB>=4.0 27 2.0 0.05
Geysers MB>=2.0 5 1.9 0.05
Greece MB>=4.0 8 2.0 0.05
Indian Ocean MB>=4.0 17 2.1 0.05
Mammoth Lakes MB>=0.0 55 2.4 0.04
Mammoth Lakes MB>=2.0 70 3.6 0.01
Siberia MB>=4.0 38 2.1 0.05
Utah2 MB>=2.0 27 2.7 0.02
Washington MB>=0.0 95 3.2 0.01
Central California MB>=2.0 10 2.5 0.04
Central California MB>=3.0 20 2.5 0.03
Global MB>=5.0 7 2.4 0.04
Hawaii MB>=2.0 20 2.9 0.02
Iran MB>=4.0 30 2.2 0.05
San Andreas MB>=0.0 14 2.3 0.05
San Andreas MB>=2.0 43 1.9 0.05
San Andreas MB>=3.0 40 2.8 0.02
So Asia MB>=4.0 46 3.3 0.01
Turkey MB>=4.0 11 2.1 0.05
Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
NW Europe MB>=4.0 -9 -1.9 0.05
WEATHER PHENOMENA
February 19, 2025
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
No tropical cyclones are currently active.
TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY
February 20, 2025 is the twenty-first day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
Central California MB>=0.0 37 2.4 0.04
Central California MB>=3.0 18 2.2 0.05
Central US MB>=1.0 79 3.4 0.01
East US MB>=1.0 12 2.2 0.05
N So. America MB>=4.0 19 2.1 0.05
Rocky Mountains MB>=4.0 88 3.4 0.01
San Andreas MB>=0.0 17 2.8 0.02
San Andreas MB>=2.0 64 2.9 0.02
San Andreas MB>=3.0 38 2.7 0.02
Geysers MB>=0.0 7 2.6 0.03
Mammoth Lakes MB>=0.0 62 2.8 0.02
Utah MB>=0.0 11 2.1 0.05
Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
China MB>=4.0 -19 -2.3 0.05
Global MB>=6.0 -11 -1.9 0.05
NW Europe MB>=4.0 -11 -2.4 0.04
Print 