Tidal and Weather effects

WEATHER PHENOMENA

September 23, 2024

Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:

HURRICANE JOHN

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HURR JOHN 2024-09-24 00:00 UT 16.9N 99.3E 105 kts South of Guerrero, Mexico

Hurricane John continued today with winds up to 105 kts south of central Mexico. It is expected to track to the north making landfall around September 24-25 near Punta Escondida and Acapulco, Mexico. Regional seismicity in Mexico is expected to be enhanced as this storm passes through the region.

A tropical cyclone may be forming south of Honshu, Japan. This system is currently located near 28N 134E with winds up to 25 kts and moving ESE. Little impact on regional seismicity is expected at this time.

A tropical storm is forming south of Florida near Cuba. NHC expects this storm to make landfall as a category 1 hurricane in the Panhandle of Florida on September 25 and to track to the north. Little in the way of seismic enhancement is expected with this storm in the immediate area of southeastern U.S. but some enhanced seismicity along the Pacific-North American plate boundaries is possible in the next several days.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

The new moon will arrive on October 2, 2024 at 18:49. This involves a total annular eclipse of the sun of long duration - up to nearly 8 minutes - which will begin in the northern Pacific reaching maximum at 21S 114W and ending in southern South America and the South Sandwich Islands. Several active seismic areas are located along the path of the eclipse including a series of sites on the East Pacific Rise and the West Chile Rise and the Falkland and South Sandwich Islands. These are the most likely to see strongly enhanced seismicity with this eclipse. Longitudes which are at local solar noon at this time are near 120 West while those at local solar midnight area near 60 East. These include areas of western North America and the East Pacific in the west and central Asia including Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran. These areas are most likely to see moderate tidal triggering at this time. Tidal enhancement of regional seismicity is possible in many areas, however, a strong earthquake associated with this new moon is considered possible in the next week by this report. Minor to moderate seismic enhancement is also possible along the Pacific-North American plate boundary in the next week.

September 24, 2024 is the twenty-first day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Central California MB>=0.0 37 2.4 0.04

Central California MB>=3.0 18 2.2 0.05

Central US MB>=1.0 79 3.4 0.01

East US MB>=1.0 12 2.2 0.05

N So. America MB>=4.0 19 2.1 0.05

Rocky Mountains MB>=4.0 88 3.4 0.01

San Andreas MB>=0.0 17 2.8 0.02

San Andreas MB>=2.0 64 2.9 0.02

San Andreas MB>=3.0 38 2.7 0.02

Geysers MB>=0.0 7 2.6 0.03

Mammoth Lakes MB>=0.0 62 2.8 0.02

Utah MB>=0.0 11 2.1 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

China MB>=4.0 -19 -2.3 0.05

Global MB>=6.0 -11 -1.9 0.05

NW Europe MB>=4.0 -11 -2.4 0.04

WEATHER PHENOMENA

September 22, 2024

TROPICAL STORM JOHN

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TS JOHN 2024-09-23 00:00 UT 14.2N 98.5E 50 kts South of Guerrero, Mexico

TS John formed today with winds up to 50 kts south of central Mexico. It is expected to track to the north making landfall around September 25 near Punta Escondida, Mexico. Regional seismicity in Mexico is expected to be enhanced as this storm passes through the region.

A tropical cyclone may be forming southeast of Hawaii. This storm at 10N 142W has winds up to 25 kts and is moving to the west. It is not expected to enhance regional seismicity at this time.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

The Full Moon arrived at 02:34 UT on September 18, 2024. This is a "super-moon" (Where the moon is closest to earth) and involves a partial lunar eclipse. The eclipse will be visible in North America, Europe and Africa and may enhance seismicity those areas especially near the equator. Longitudes which will be at local solar midnight at this time are near 40 West while those at local solar noon are near 140 East. These zones include the central Atlantic and Iceland and western Europe in the west and the Kuril Islands, Japan and portions of eastern Indonesia and New Guinea and the Vanuatu Islands in the east. These areas are the most likely to see tidal triggering in the week surrounding this full moon. Such events often occur near local solar midnight and noon. A major earthquake is considered likely with this new moon in the 10 days.

September 23, 2024 is the twentieth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Central US MB>=1.0 63 2.7 0.03

India MB>=4.0 49 2.1 0.05

N So. America MB>=4.0 24 2.8 0.02

Central California MB>=0.0 43 2.8 0.02

Central California MB>=2.0 9 2.3 0.04

Central California MB>=3.0 23 2.8 0.02

Rocky Mountains MB>=0.0 70 2.7 0.02

San Andreas MB>=0.0 23 3.8 0.01

San Andreas MB>=2.0 75 3.4 0.01

San Andreas MB>=3.0 48 3.4 0.01

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

NW Europe MB>=4.0 -9 -2.0 0.05

Mammoth lakes MB>=3.0 -17 -1.9 0.05

So Indonesia MB>=4.0 -29 -2.2 0.05

WEATHER PHENOMENA

September 21, 2024

TROPICAL STORM (17W)

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TS 17W 2024-09-22 00:00 UT 26.0N 119.3E 50 kts East of China

TS 17W made landfall today with winds up to 50 kts near the coast of China. It is expected to track to the west making landfall around September 21 near Singapore, the second such event in this area in the past two weeks (Typhoon Yagi) did so on September 6 and helped trigger an M 5.7 at the antipode in Bolivia and Argentina. The same could occur with today's landfall. A series of earthquakes also followed the landfall or Yagi in eastern China and these could recur in the next several days.

TROPICAL STORM PULASAN (15W)

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TS PULASAN 2024-09-22 00:00 UT 34.6N 128.9E 45 kts West of Honshu, Japan

TS Pulasan continued today with winds up to 45 kts West of Honshu Japan. It is expected to track to the east over the next two days and to make landfall ... on September 22-23 in western Honshu, Japan. Seismicity in southern Japan is expected to be enhanced as this storm passes through the area.

TROPICAL STORM GORDON

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TS GORDON 2024-09-22 00:00 UT 25.0N 55.0W 30 kts Central Atlantic

Tropical Storm Gordon continued today in the Mid-Atlantic with winds up to 30 kts. It is expected to track to the north and east and to stall in the cool mid-Atlantic waters. Regional seismicitiy in the mid-Atlantic will likely be slightly enhanced by this storm in the next several days.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

The new moon arrived on October 2, 2024 at 18:49. This involves a total annular eclipse of the sun of long duration - up to nearly 8 minutes - which will begin in the northern Pacific reaching maximum at 21S 114W and ending in southern South America and the South Sandwich Islands. Several active seismic areas are located along the path of the eclipse including a series of sites on the East Pacific Rise and the West Chile Rise and the Falkland and South Sandwich Islands. These are the most likely to see strongly enhanced seismicity with this eclipse. Longitudes which are at local solar noon at this time are near 120 West while those at local solar midnight area near 60 East. These include areas of western North America and the East Pacific in the west and central Asia including Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran. These areas are most likely to see moderate tidal triggering at this time. Tidal enhancement of regional seismicity is possible in many areas, however, a strong earthquake associated with this new moon is considered possible in the next week by this report. Minor to moderate seismic enhancement is also possible along the Pacific-North American plate boundary in the next week.

September 22, 2024 is the nineteenth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Arctic MB>=4.0 30 1.9 0.05

India MB>=4.0 68 2.9 0.02

Hindu Kush MB>=4.0 14 2.0 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Mammoth lakes MB>=3.0 -18 -2.1 0.05

WEATHER PHENOMENA

September 20, 2024

TROPICAL STORM (17W)

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TS 17W 2024-09-21 00:00 UT 30.0N 119.3E 50 kts East of China

TS 17W continued today with winds up to 50 kts near the coast of China. It is expected to track to the west making landfall around September 21 near Singapore, the second such event in this area in the past two weeks (Typhoon Yagi) did so on September 6 and helped trigger an M 5.7 at the antipode in Bolivia and Argentina. The same could occur with today's landfall. A series of earthquakes also followed the landfall or Yagi in eastern China and these could recur in the next several days.

TROPICAL STORM PULASAN (15W)

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TS PULASAN 2024-09-21 00:00 UT 32.8N 121.1E 40 kts Eastern China

TS Pulasan continued today with winds up to 40 kts over Eastern China. It is expected to track to the northwest over the next two days and to make landfall ... on September 19-20. Seismicity in southern Japan is expected to be enhanced as this storm passes through the area.

TROPICAL STORM GORDON

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TS GORDON 2024-09-21 00:00 UT 25.0N 44.0W 30 kts Central Atlantic

A similar storm is located about 800 km west of TS Gordon today. Both systems are

expected to meander around in the North Atlantic and not to pose a threat of

land or seismicity at this time.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

September 21, 2024 is the eighteenth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Pacific-Antarctic Ridge MB>=4.0 58 2.0 0.05

East Africa MB>=4.0 23 3.1 0.01

New Zealand MB>=4.0 19 2.2 0.05

Yellowstone MB>=2.0 19 2.0 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Utah MB>=2.0 -19 -2.0 0.05

WEATHER PHENOMENA

September 19, 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOULIK (16W)

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TD SOULIK 2024-09-20 00:00 UT 17.0N 106.3E 40 kts Vietnam

TD 16W continued today with winds up to 40 kts after making landfall near Hue, Vietnam. It is expected to track to the west and dissipate over Vietnam and Laos. Some enhanced seismicity may occur in Myanmar with this storm as it moves into that region.

TROPICAL STORM PULASAN (15W)

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TS PULASAN 2024-09-20 00:00 UT 32.8N 121.1E 40 kts Eastern China

TROPICAL STORM GORDON

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TS GORDON 2024-09-20 00:00 UT 25.0N 44.0W 30 kts Central Atlantic

A similar storm is located about 800 km west of TS Gordon today. Both systems are

expected to meander around in the North Atlantic and not to pose a threat of

land or seismicity at this time.

A tropical cyclone may be forming east of Taiwan. This system is corrently located at 22N 127E and moving to the norhtwest with winds up to 25 kts. It could enhance regional seismicity while in the area of Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands of Japan.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

September 20, 2024 is the sixteenth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Kermadec MB>=4.0 14 2.0 0.05

Nevada MB>=2.0 22 3.3 0.01

Spain MB>=4.0 35 2.5 0.03

Puerto Rico MB>=4.0 18 2.0 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

So.California MB>=0.0 -8 -2.1 0.05

WEATHER PHENOMENA

September 18, 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOULIK (16W)

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TD SOULIK 2024-09-19 00:00 UT 17.0N 106.3E 40 kts Vietnam

TROPICAL STORM PULASAN (15W)

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TS PULASAN 2024-09-19 00:00 UT 29.6N 123.1E 45 kts Eastern China

TS Pulasan continued today with winds up to 45 kts over Eastern China. It is expected to track to the northwest over the next two days and to make landfall ... on September 19-20. Seismicity in southern Japan is expected to be enhanced as this storm passes through the area.

TROPICAL STORM GORDON

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TS GORDON 2024-09-19 00:00 UT 25.0N 44.0W 30 kts Central Atlantic

A similar storm is located about 800 km west of TS Gordon today. Both systems are

expected to meander around in the North Atlantic and not to pose a threat of

land or seismicity at this time.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

September 19, 2024 is the fifteenth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

NE Europe MB>=4.0 11 2.5 0.04

Solomon Islands MB>=4.0 26 2.6 0.03

Japan MB>=4.0 16 2.4 0.04

Spain MB>=4.0 30 2.2 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

No Regions

WEATHER PHENOMENA

September 17, 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W

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TD 16W 2024-09-18 00:00 UT 17.0N 110.9E 40 kts West of Luzon, Philippines

TD 16W formed today with winds up to 40 kts west of Luzon, Philippines. It is expected to track to the west over the next two days and to make landfall in Vietnam or southeastern China. No significant enhancement of seismicity is expected with this storm.

TROPICAL STORM PULASAN (15W)

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TS PULASAN 2024-09-18 00:00 UT 27.0N 127.9E 55 kts Ryukyu Islands

TS Pulasan continued today with winds up to 55 kts over the Ryukyu Islands of Japan. It is expected to track to the northwest over the next two days and to make landfall again in Southern Honshu, Japan west of Kyoto on September 19-20. Seismicity in southern Japan is expected to be enhanced as this storm passes through the area.

TROPICAL STORM GORDON

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TS GORDON 2024-09-18 00:00 UT 19.0N 48.0W 35 kts Central Atlantic

Tropical Storm Gordon continued today in the Mid-Atlantic with winds up to 35 kts. It is expected to track to the north and east and to stall in the cool mid-Atlantic waters. Regional seismicitiy in the mid-Atlantic will likely be slightly enhanced by this storm in the next several days.

A tropical cyclone may be forming northeast of Northern Philippines. This system is currently located at 17.5N 123.8E with winds up to 23 Kts. It is expected to track to the west and may enhance seismicity in the northern Philippines as it passes through that area.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

The Full Moon will arrive at 02:34 UT on September 18, 2024. This is a "super-moon" (Where the moon is closest to earth) and involves a partial lunar eclipse. The eclipse will be visible in North America, Europe and Africa and may enhance seismicity those areas especially near the equator. Longitudes which will be at local solar midnight at this time are near 40 West while those at local solar noon are near 140 East. These zones include the central Atlantic and Iceland and western Europe in the west and the Kuril Islands, Japan and portions of eastern Indonesia and New Guinea and the Vanuatu Islands in the east. These areas are the most likely to see tidal triggering in the week surrounding this full moon. Such events often occur near local solar midnight and noon. A major earthquake is considered likely with this new moon in the 10 days.

September 18, 2024 is the fourteenth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Solomon Islands MB>=4.0 23 2.3 0.04

Spain MB>=4.0 38 2.7 0.02

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Rocky Mountains MB>=4.0 -54 -2.1 0.05

China MB>=4.0 -18 -2.1 0.05

WEATHER PHENOMENA

September 16, 2024

TROPICAL STORM PULASAN (15W)

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TS PULASAN 2024-09-17 00:00 UT 20.4N 137.4E 55 kts NW of Mariana Islands

TS Pulasan formed today with winds up to 55 kts over the northern Mariana Islands and was accompanied by an M 6.3 in the region of the northern Marianas. It is expected to track to the northwest over the next two days and to make landfall in the Ryukyu Islands around September 18. Seismicity in southern Japan is expected to be enhanced as this storm passes through the area.

TROPICAL STORM GORDON

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TS GORDON 2024-09-17 00:00 UT 19.0N 49.0W 35 kts Central Atlantic

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

September 17, 2024 is the thirteenth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Central America MB>=4.0 10 2.1 0.05

Global MB>=6.0 15 2.5 0.03

Utah MB>=0.0 14 2.7 0.03

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Central California MB>=2.0 -8 -2.2 0.05

WEATHER PHENOMENA

September 15, 2024

TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT

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TC EIGHT 2024-09-16 00:00 UT 32.4N 78.3W 60 kts South Carolina

Tropical Cyclone Eight formed off the coast of South Carolina today with winds up to 60 kts. It is expected to move inland and to dissipate over South Carolina and North Carolina in the next several days. Landfall on the Continental slope may have helped trigger the M 6.5 in Vancouver, BC at the same time. This has been seen on previous occasions and commented on in this summary.

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA (09E)

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TS ILEANA 2024-09-16 00:00 UT 25.5N 109.5W 40 kts Baja, Gulf of California

Tropical Storm Ileana (Depression 09E) dissipated today in the Gulf of California with winds up to 40 kts. It is expected to track to the north and west and may affect regional seismicity as far to the north as southern California as it passes through the area.

TYPHOON BEBINCA (14W)

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TYPH BEBINCA 2024-09-16 00:00 UT 30.9N 121.6E 80 kts Shanghai, China

Typhoon Bebinca (Depression 14W) made landfall today in Shanghai, China with winds up to 80 kts. This is the worst typhoon to hit Shanghai in the past 75 years. It made landfall simultaneously with the M 6.5 in Vancouver, BC and may have helped promoted that event. It is expected to move to the west today and to dissipated in eastern China. Some regional seismicity could be impacted by this storm.

TROPICAL STORM GORDON

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TS GORDON 2024-09-16 00:00 UT 19.2N 47.5W 40 kts Central Atlantic

Tropical Storm Gordon continued today in the Mid-Atlantic with winds up to 40 kts. It is expected to track to the north and east and to stall in the cool mid-Atlantic waters. Regional seismicitiy in the mid-Atlantic will likely be slightly enhanced by this storm in the next several days.

A tropical weather system is forming near Guam, Mariana Islands. This is currently located over Guam at 13N 144E and tracking NNE with winds up to 23 kts. It could enhance regional seismicity in Guam while in the vicinity.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

September 16, 2024 is the twelfth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Australia MB>=4.0 38 3.0 0.01

So Indonesia MB>=4.0 49 3.7 0.01

Global MB>=5.0 5 1.9 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Tonga MB>=4.0 -28 -2.0 0.05

Turkey MB>=4.0 -10 -2.0 0.05

WEATHER PHENOMENA

September 14, 2024

A minor storm may be forming off the coast of South Carolina. This system may intensify

and threaten high surge in South Carolina and minor earthquakes. It is

currently located at 32N 79W with winds up to 40 kts.

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA (09E)

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TS ILEANA 2024-09-15 00:00 UT 25.5N 109.5W 40 kts Baja, Gulf of California

Tropical Storm Ileana (Depression 09E) continued today in the Gulf of California with winds up to 40 kts. It is expected to track to the north and west and may affect regional seismicity as far to the north as southern California as it passes through the area.

TYPHOON BEBINCA (14W)

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TYPH BEBINCA 2024-09-15 00:00 UT 30.5N 124.5E 85 kts Northern Ryukyu Islands, Japan

Typhoon Bebinca (Depression 14W) continued today over the northern Ryukyu Islands, Japan with winds up to 85 kts. It is expected to track to the north and west a Typhoon as it passes over the Ryukyu Island, Japan around September 15. Enhancement of seismicity in southern Japan and Guam is likely with this storm in the next week.

TROPICAL STORM GORDON

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TS GORDON 2024-09-15 00:00 UT 19.2N 45.5W 40 kts Central Atlantic

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

September 15, 2024 is the eleventh day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

So. Alaska MB>=3.0 9 2.7 0.02

Australia MB>=4.0 33 2.6 0.03

New Madrid MB>=0.0 34 3.4 0.01

So Indonesia MB>=4.0 42 3.1 0.01

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Geysers MB>=0.0 -6 -2.2 0.05

NE Europe MB>=4.0 -10 -2.3 0.04

Tonga MB>=4.0 -29 -2.0 0.05

WEATHER PHENOMENA

September 13, 2024

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA (09E)

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TS ILEANA 2024-09-14 00:00 UT 23.9N 109.2W 45 kts Baja, Gulf of California

Tropical Storm Ileana (Depression 09E) continued today in the Gulf of California with winds up to 45 kts. It is expected to track to the north and west and may affect regional seismicity as far to the north as southern California as it passes through the area.

TYPHOON BEBINCA (14W)

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TYPH BEBINCA 2024-09-14 00:00 UT 28.2N 129.2E 80 kts Northern Ryukyu Islands, Japan

Typhoon Bebinca (Depression 14W) continued today over the northern Ryukyu Islands, Japan. It is expected to track to the north and west a Typhoon as it passes over the Ryukyu Island, Japan around September 15. Enhancement of seismicity in southern Japan and Guam is likely with this storm in the next week.

TROPICAL STORM GORDON

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TS GORDON 2024-09-14 00:00 UT 20.1N 40.9W 45 kts Central Atlantic

Tropical Storm Gordon formed today in the Mid-Atlantic with winds up to 45 kts. It is expected to track to the north and east and to stall in the cool mid-Atlantic waters. Regional seismicitiy in the mid-Atlantic will likely be slightly enhanced by this storm in the next several days.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

September 14, 2024 is the tenth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Alaska MB>=3.0 6 2.0 0.05

Greece MB>=4.0 8 2.0 0.05

Hawaii MB>=2.0 19 2.7 0.02

Kuriles MB>=4.0 22 1.9 0.05

Mammoth Lakes MB>=3.0 19 2.2 0.05

East Pacific Rise MB>=4.0 38 2.3 0.05

Hindu Kush MB>=4.0 20 2.9 0.01

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

No Regions

WEATHER PHENOMENA

September 12, 2024

Storm systems in the Atlantic at 19N 39W (west of the Canary Islands region) and 17N 61W are expected

to track to the west leading to possibly increased seismicity in the Caribbean

next week.

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA (09E)

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TS ILEANA 2024-09-13 00:00 UT 21.2N 108.7W 50 kts Baja, Gulf of California

Tropical Storm Ileana (Depression 09E) formed today in the southern Gulf of California with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track to the north and west and may affect regional seismicity as far to the north as southern California as it passes through the area.

TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (14W)

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TS BEBINCA 2024-09-13 00:00 UT 23.2N 135.7E 50 kts West of Volcano Islands, Japan

Tropical Storm Bebinca (Depression 14W) continued today west northern Mariana Islands with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track to the north and west becoming a Typhoon as it passes over the Ryukyu Island, Japan around September 15. Enhancement of seismicity in southern Japan and Guam is likely with this storm in the next week.

HURRRICANE FRANCINE

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HURR FRANCINE 2024-09-13 00:00 UT 35.5N 91.5W 25 kts Louisiana, Arkansas, Alabama

Tropical Storm Francine made landfall today in southern Louisiana with winds up to 25 kts (category 1 Hurricane). It is expected to track to the north and east. Regional seismicitiy in the New Madrid and Mississippi Valley up to Missouri will likely be enhanced by this hurricane in the next several days.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

September 13, 2024 is the ninth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Mt ST. Helens MB>=1.0 55 4.1 0.01

Washington MB>=3.0 19 3.3 0.01

JMA MB>=4.0 14 2.0 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

East US MB>=1.0 -12 -2.3 0.04

WEATHER PHENOMENA

September 11, 2024

Storm systems in the Atlantic at 15N 29W (in the Canary Islands region) and 15N 44W are expected

to track to the west leading to possibly increased seismicity in the Caribbean

next week.

A tropical cyclone may be forming south of western Mexico near Michoacan. this system is currently located at 18N 106W and moving WNW with winds up to 33 kts. I could slightly enhance regional seismicity in western Mexico and Michoacan while in the area.

TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (14W)

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TS BEBINCA 2024-09-12 00:00 UT 19.4N 139.7E 75 kts Volcano Islands, Japan

Tropical Storm Bebinca (Depression 14W) continued today west of Guam and the northern Mariana Islands with winds up to 75 kts. It is expected to track to the north and west becoming a Typhoon as it passes over the Ryukyu Island, Japan around September 15. Enhancement of seismicity in southern Japan and Guam is likely with this storm in the next week.

HURRRICANE FRANCINE

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HURR FRANCINE 2024-09-12 00:00 UT 31.9N 90.1W 40 kts Louisiana, Alabama

Tropical Storm Francine made landfall today in southern Louisiana with winds up to 90 kts (category 1 Hurricane). It is expected to track to the north and east. Regional seismicitiy in the New Madrid and Mississippi Valley up to Missouri will likely be enhanced by this hurricane in the next several days.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

September 12, 2024 is the eighth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Pacific-Antarctic Ridge MB>=4.0 58 2.0 0.05

Central So America MB>=4.0 23 2.3 0.04

Mt ST. Helens MB>=0.0 40 3.0 0.01

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Siberia MB>=4.0 -37 -2.0 0.05

WEATHER PHENOMENA

September 10, 2024

Storm systems in the Atlantic at 15N 29W (in the Canary Islands region) and 15N 44W are expected

to track to the west leading to possibly increased seismicity in the Caribbean

next week.

TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (14W)

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TS BEBINCA 2024-09-11 00:00 UT 14.5N 141.9E 45 kts Guam

Tropical Storm Bebinca (Depression 14W) continued today west of Guam with winds up to 45 kts. It is expected to track to the north and west becoming a Typhoon as it passes over the Ryukyu Island, Japan around September 15. Enhancement of seismicity in southern Japan and Guam is likely with this storm in the next week.

HURRRICANE FRANCINE

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HURR FRANCINE 2024-09-11 00:00 UT 27.0N 93.8W 90 kts East of southern Texas

Tropical Storm Francine continued today east of southern Texas and south of Louisiana with winds up to 90 kts. It is expected to track to the north and east as a Hurricane on September 10 and making landfall as a hurricane in Louisiana around September 11-12. Regional seismicity in western Texas, northern Mexico and the New Madrid and Mississippi Valley up to Missouri will likely be enhanced by this hurricane in the next several days.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

September 11, 2024 is the seventh day after the beginning of the lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

No Regions

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

East US MB>=1.0 -13 -2.5 0.03

WEATHER PHENOMENA

September 9, 2024

Storm systems in the Atlantic at 12N 33W and 15N 42W are expected

to track to the west leading to possibly increased seismicity in the Caribbean

next week.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W

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TD 14W 2024-09-10 00:00 UT 11.6N 145.7E 40 kts Guam

Tropical Depression 14W formed today east of Guam with winds up to 40 kts. It is expected to track to the north and west becoming a Typhoon as it passes over the Ryukyu Island, Japan around September 15. Enhancement of seismicity in southern Japan and Guam is likely with this storm in the next week.

TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE

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TS FRANCINE 2024-09-10 00:00 UT 24.4N 96.2W 65 kts East of southern Texas

Tropical Storm Francine continued today east of southern Texas with winds up to 65 kts. It is expected to track to the north and east becoming a Hurricane on September 10 and making landfall as a hurricane in Louisiana around September 11. Regional seismicity in western Texas, northern Mexico and the New Madrid and Mississippi Valley up to Missouri will likely be enhanced by this hurricane in the next several days.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

September 10, 2024 is the sixth day after the beginning of the lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Indian Ocean MB>=4.0 17 2.1 0.05

Kamchatka MB>=4.0 35 2.6 0.03

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Global MB>=6.0 -17 -2.8 0.02

West Pacific MB>=4.0 -20 -1.9 0.05

Yellowstone MB>=0.0 -19 -2.0 0.05

Puerto Rico MB>=4.0 -17 -1.9 0.05

WEATHER PHENOMENA

September 9, 2024

Storm systems in the Atlantic at 12N 33W and 15N 42W are expected

to track to the west leading to possibly increased seismicity in the Caribbean

next week.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W

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TD 14W 2024-09-10 00:00 UT 11.6N 145.7E 40 kts Guam

TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE

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TS FRANCINE 2024-09-10 00:00 UT 24.4N 96.2W 65 kts East of southern Texas

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Indian Ocean MB>=4.0 17 2.1 0.05

Kamchatka MB>=4.0 35 2.6 0.03

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Global MB>=6.0 -17 -2.8 0.02

West Pacific MB>=4.0 -20 -1.9 0.05

Yellowstone MB>=0.0 -19 -2.0 0.05

Puerto Rico MB>=4.0 -17 -1.9 0.05

Storm systems in the Atlantic at 12N 33W and 15N 42W are expected

to track to the west leading to possibly increased seismicity in the Caribbean

next week.

TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE

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TS FRANCINE 2024-09-09 00:00 UT 23.0N 94.9W 50 kts East of southern Texas

Tropical Storm Francine formed today east of northern Mexico and Texas with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track to the north and east becoming a Hurricane on September 10 and making landfall as a hurricane in Louisiana around September 11. Regional seismicity in western Texas, northern Mexico and the New Madrid and Mississippi Valley up to Missouri will likely be enhanced by this hurricane in the next several days.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

September 9, 2024 is the fifth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

JMA MB>=4.0 14 2.0 0.05

Kamchatka MB>=4.0 58 4.3 0.01

Kanto MB>=4.0 42 2.6 0.03

So. California MB>=3.0 60 2.0 0.05

Washington MB>=2.0 36 3.3 0.01

Washington MB>=3.0 11 1.9 0.05

West Pacific MB>=4.0 22 2.2 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Pacific-Antarctic Ridge MB>=4.0 -59 -2.1 0.05

Caribbean MB>=4.0 -20 -2.2 0.05

N Indonesia MB>=4.0 -41 -2.2 0.05

WEATHER PHENOMENA

September 7, 2024

The Atlantic Hurricane season may be beginning after a long period of unusual inactivity. This

is probably due to a dramatic cooling of the central Atlantic over the past

several months. Cooling of the waters in this area can dampen strong storm formation.

This cooling is now beginning to dissipate leading to warmer equatorial waters. No major storms

are expected in this environment. The only cyclones in the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico

at this time are Depression Six north of Oaxaca and Chiapas, Mexico. Thisis a minor system located north of Guatemala and the area of the Yucatan, Mexico.

While small this could enhance seismicity in Guatemala and eastern Mexico in the nest several days. It is currently located near

22N 95W. Storm systems in the Atlantic at 12N 32W and 13N 43W are expected

to track to the west leading to possibly increased seismicity in the Caribbean

next week.

TROPICAL STORM LEEPI (13W)

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TS LEEPI 2024-09-08 00:00 UT 39.2N 153.4E 45 kts East of Honshu, Japan

TS Leepi (13W) continued today East of Honshu, Japan with winds up to 45 kts. This system is expected to track to the north and not to make landfall in Japan. No seismic enhancement in the region is currently expected. It is expected dissipate in the next day.

TYPHOON YAGI (12W)

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TYPH YAGI 2024-09-08 00:00 UT 21.0N 106.9E 135 kts West of Luzon, Philipines

Typhoon YAGI (12W) continued today west of northern Luzon Philippines with winds up to 135 kts. This system is currently located at 19N 120E with winds up to 70 kts and heading to the west. Landfall in the central and northern Philippines could bring enhanced seismicity to that area of the Philippines. It is then likely to reach typhoon levels as it moves into eastern China.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

September 8, 2024 is the fourth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Caribbean MB>=4.0 20 2.3 0.05

Caucasus MB>=4.0 25 3.1 0.01

East Pacific Rise MB>=4.0 35 2.1 0.05

Japan MB>=4.0 23 3.3 0.01

JMA MB>=4.0 21 2.9 0.01

Kanto MB>=4.0 61 3.9 0.01

So.California MB>=0.0 11 3.1 0.01

Indian Ocean MB>=4.0 16 1.9 0.05

Kamchatka MB>=4.0 33 2.4 0.04

Washington MB>=2.0 33 3.1 0.01

West Pacific MB>=4.0 23 2.3 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

China MB>=4.0 -17 -2.1 0.05

Italy MB>=4.0 -30 -2.0 0.05

WEATHER PHENOMENA

September 6, 2024

The Atlantic Hurricane season may be beginning after a long period of unusual inactivity. This

is probably due to a dramatic cooling of the central Atlantic over the past

several months. Cooling of the waters in this area can dampen strong storm formation.

This cooling is now beginning to dissipate leading to warmer equatorial waters. No major storms

are expected in this environment. The only cyclone in the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico

at this time is a minor system located north of Guatemala and the area of the Yucatan, Mexico.

While small this could enhance seismicity in Guatemala and eastern Mexico in the nest several days. It is currently located near

17N 90W.

TYPHOON YAGI (12W)

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TYPH YAGI 2024-09-07 00:00 UT 20.3N 108.2E 140 kts West of Luzon, Philipines

Typhoon YAGI (12W) continued today west of northern Luzon Philippines with winds up to 140 kts. This system is currently located at 19N 120E with winds up to 70 kts and heading to the west. Landfall in the central and northern Philippines could bring enhanced seismicity to that area of the Philippines. It is then likely to reach typhoon levels as it moves into eastern China.

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

January 6, March 18, April 17, May 16, June 15, July 14, August 12, Sept. 11, Oct. 10, Nov. 8, Dec.8, is the fourth day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Caribbean MB>=4.0 20 2.3 0.05

Caucasus MB>=4.0 25 3.1 0.01

East Pacific Rise MB>=4.0 35 2.1 0.05

Japan MB>=4.0 23 3.3 0.01

JMA MB>=4.0 21 2.9 0.01

Kanto MB>=4.0 61 3.9 0.01

So.California MB>=0.0 11 3.1 0.01

Indian Ocean MB>=4.0 16 1.9 0.05

Kamchatka MB>=4.0 33 2.4 0.04

Washington MB>=2.0 33 3.1 0.01

West Pacific MB>=4.0 23 2.3 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

China MB>=4.0 -17 -2.1 0.05

Italy MB>=4.0 -30 -2.0 0.05

WEATHER PHENOMENA

September 5, 2024

The Atlantic Hurricane season may be beginning after a long period of unusual inactivity. This

is probably due to a dramatic cooling of the central Atlantic over the past

several months. Cooling of the waters in this area can dampen strong storm formation.

This cooling is now beginning to dissipate leading to warmer equatorial waters. No major storms

are expected in this environment. An unnamed system is currently located at about 16N 55W

and could impact Caribbean seismicity in the next several days.

A second system is forming off the west coast of North Africa. This is currently located

at 13N 35W and moving to the west but is not expected to impact regional

seismicity at this time. A third system is located in the Caribbean Sea at 16N 84W.

Other disturbances in the region are located off the east coast of Texas at

28N 95W and could enhanced seismicity in the active area near 28N 98W.

A minor disturbance is also located off the east coast of North Carolina. This system

at 34N 70W could track to the north and impact (slightly) the coast of

eastern North America in the coming few days.

TROPICAL STORM LEEPI (13W)

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TS LEEPI 2024-09-06 00:00 UT 37.0N 149.9E 45 kts East of Honshu, Japan

TYPHOON YAGI (12W)

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TYPH YAGI 2024-09-06 00:00 UT 19.6N 110.0E 140 kts West of Luzon, Philipines

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

The New Moon arrived at 01:55 UT on September 3, 2024. Longitudes which will be at local solar midnight at this time are near 30 West while those at local solar noon are near 150 East. These zones include the central Atlantic and Iceland and western Europe in the west and the Kuril Islands, Japan and portions of eastern Indonesia and the Vanuatu Islands in the east. These areas are the most likely to see tidal triggering in the next week. Such events often occur near local solar midnight and noon. A major earthquake is considered likely with this new moon in the 10 days.

September 6, 2024 is the third day after the beginning of the new lunar month. Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Alaska MB>=4.0 6 1.9 0.05

Central California MB>=2.0 9 2.3 0.05

Mammoth Lakes MB>=2.0 45 2.3 0.05

Mammoth Lakes MB>=3.0 23 2.6 0.03

Mt ST.Helens MB>=1.0 29 2.2 0.05

Spain MB>=4.0 31 2.2 0.05

Arctic MB>=4.0 36 2.3 0.04

Caribbean MB>=4.0 27 3.0 0.01

Caucasus MB>=4.0 23 2.9 0.01

So. California MB>=0.0 10 2.7 0.03

So. California MB>=2.0 22 1.9 0.05