EXTERNAL EFFECTS
December 7, 2024
The planetary geomagnetic field today saw quiet conditions with AP 5. High latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 2. Medium latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 4.
Unsettled conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely December 7-9. Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels December 8-10, 2024 a moderate chance (30%) of an M-class flare and 5% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 5% probability in this time period.
The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 4 at 10:00 UT on December 7, 2024.
The Wolf Sunspot number today was 91. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 193 on December 7, 2024.
SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY
Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares
are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the
near future.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4790 0010 0017 0024 C4.6 (December 7, 2024) 3.1E-03
Java M 4.9 00:2 UT
4820 0136 0145 0150 C3.2 (December 7, 2024) 2.0E-03
4840 0223 0230 0234 C2.7 (December 7, 2024) 1.5E-03
4870 0438 0446 0458 C3.1 (December 7, 2024) 3.3E-03
4880 0530 0541 0549 C3.4 (December 7, 2024) 3.5E-03
4900 0701 0708 0713 C2.7 (December 7, 2024) 1.7E-03
4920 0742 0749 0753 C4.8 (December 7, 2024) 2.0E-03
So Sumatra M 4.9 07:46 UT
Taiwan M 4.9 07:48 UT
4930 0755 0800 0806 C3.4 (December 7, 2024) 1.1E-03
Seram M 4.4 07:56 UT
4940 0850 0859 0912 C7.8 (December 7, 2024) 6.9E-03
Nicaragua M 4.9 09:06 UT
4960 1026 1030 1036 C7.0 (December 7, 2024) 2.8E-03
Andreanof M 4.2 10:33 UT
South Carolina M 2.0 10:25 UT
4970 1040 1053 1118 C5.3 (December 7, 2024) 7.6E-04
4990 1300 1308 1315 M2.3 (December 7, 2024) 9.9E-04
Central Peru M 4.7 13:24 UT
5020 1456 1502 1506 C2.6 (December 7, 2024) 1.5E-03
5040 1528 1535 1541 C3.6 (December 7, 2024) 2.5E-03
5050 1717 1721 1726 C2.3 (December 7, 2024) 1.2E-03
So. Mid-Atantic M 5.8 17:31 UT
5070 1805 1815 1820 C5.5 (December 7, 2024) 1.7E-03
5080 1820 1826 1832 C6.4 (December 7, 2024) 4.5E-03
5100 2034 2038 2042 C2.4 (December 7, 2024) 1.1E-03
Loyalty Is. M 4.6 21:02 UT
5150 2153 2215 2226 M3.2 (December 7, 2024) 3.1E-02
Xizang M 4.5 22:07 UT
Molucca Sea M 4.2 22:10 UT
Honshu M 4.5 22:39 UT
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 28, 2024 at 16:13:34 UT (#241128A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>19.0 was assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 27, 2024 at 21:42:16 UT (#241127A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V=19.7 was assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 15, 2024 at 13:18:25 UT (#241115A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 13, 2024 at 07:48:13 UT (#241113A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V=14.97 was assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 5, 2024 at 16:06:04 UT (#241105A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 1, 2024 at 05:41:45 UT (#241101A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
AP INDICES
FEBRUARY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 3 3 6 7 8 4 5 6 5 15 4 10 7 4
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
AP: 4 4 6 3 6 4 6 3 7 13 11 13 6 4
MARCH 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 9 5 29 10 7 6 12 11 13 7 4 6 5 9 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 3 3 8 9 4 27 11 36 64 22 11 7 7 6 5 9
APRIL 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 11 8 3 12 12 10 6 8 11 8 6 7 5 6 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 31 7 4 41 12 19 9 8 4 3 19 12 7 6 12
MAY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 8 44 10 6 12 15 7 7 7 118 273 70 30 6 10
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 27 29 12 9 7 9 4 10 9 6 10 8 6 6 8 12
JUNE 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 5 11 9 7 6 28 14 5 11 12 5 4 6 19
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 13 11 10 9 7 5 4 10 5 9 9 9 59 14 11
JULY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 6 5 5 10 8 3 8 10 6 6 6 5 4 5 7
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 10 5 5 5 7 5 9 5 6 9 23 13 7 6 23 17
AUGUST 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 22 9 10 46 10 6 7 7 7 7 28 122 17 12 6
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 8 31 13 10 7 8 10 7 10 7 5 11 26 5 23 26
SEPTEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 16 8 7 13 7 7 8 9 9 7 8 67 37 21 19
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 23 71 12 20 7 6 5 13 17 32 13 7 7 16 11
OCTOBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 6 7 8 8 6 16 55 58 19 96 116 20 5 8 15
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 15 9 14 23 7 5 8 9 13 3 14 10 17 12 15 9
NOVEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 7 13 11 14 11 10 9 11 32 25 10 5 7 11 13
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 8 8 4 9 9 8 12 8 6 11 7 5 4 8 11
DECEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 7 6 13 7 5 5 6 7
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP:
EXTERNAL EFFECTS
December 6, 2024
The planetary geomagnetic field today saw quiet conditions with AP 5. High latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 2. Medium latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 4.
Unsettled conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely December 7-9. Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels December 6-8, 2024 a moderate chance (30%) of an M-class flare and 5% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 5% probability in this time period.
The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 2 at 07:00 UT on December 6, 2024.
The Wolf Sunspot number today was 103. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 178 on December 6, 2024.
SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY
Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares
are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the
near future.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4540 0057 0106 0112 C3.5 (December 6, 2024) 2.6E-03
Honshu M 4.4 01:03 UT
4570 0209 0216 0230 C2.9 (December 6, 2024) 3.2E-03
4610 0436 0443 0450 C2.6 (December 6, 2024) 2.1E-03
4620 0459 0510 0529 C3.8 (December 6, 2024) 6.8E-03
New Guinea M 4.0 05:13 UT
Kyushu M 4.8 05:26 UT
4640 0642 0658 0709 C8.0 (December 6, 2024) 8.5E-03
No. California M 4.2 07:02 UT
4660 0756 0805 0812 C4.8 (December 6, 2024) 1.2E-03
4670 0906 0920 0942 M1.2 (December 6, 2024) 1.8E-02
4740 1301 1328 1349 C3.0 (December 6, 2024) 8.3E-03
4680 1349 1416 1430 C3.2 (December 6, 2024) 9.2E-04
East Pacific Rise M 4.9 13:57 UT
4690 1454 1459 1507 C5.9 (December 6, 2024) 3.6E-03
No. California M 4.2 14:58 UT
4700 1552 1605 1619 C5.1 (December 6, 2024) 6.3E-03
No. California M 4.0 15:51 UT
4710 1743 1754 1758 C3.9 (December 6, 2024) 2.5E-03
Haiti M 4.1 17:42 UT
4750 2108 2115 2119 C3.4 (December 6, 2024) 2.0E-03
4760 2212 2218 2227 C2.8 (December 6, 2024) 1.6E-03
4770 2252 2256 2300 C6.8 (December 6, 2024) 2.4E-03
Ryukyu Is. M 4.5 22:52 UT
4780 2323 2329 2335 C4.8 (December 6, 2024) 3.0E-03
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 28, 2024 at 16:13:34 UT (#241128A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>19.0 was assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 27, 2024 at 21:42:16 UT (#241127A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V=19.7 was assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 15, 2024 at 13:18:25 UT (#241115A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 13, 2024 at 07:48:13 UT (#241113A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V=14.97 was assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 5, 2024 at 16:06:04 UT (#241105A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 1, 2024 at 05:41:45 UT (#241101A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
AP INDICES
FEBRUARY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 3 3 6 7 8 4 5 6 5 15 4 10 7 4
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
AP: 4 4 6 3 6 4 6 3 7 13 11 13 6 4
MARCH 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 9 5 29 10 7 6 12 11 13 7 4 6 5 9 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 3 3 8 9 4 27 11 36 64 22 11 7 7 6 5 9
APRIL 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 11 8 3 12 12 10 6 8 11 8 6 7 5 6 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 31 7 4 41 12 19 9 8 4 3 19 12 7 6 12
MAY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 8 44 10 6 12 15 7 7 7 118 273 70 30 6 10
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 27 29 12 9 7 9 4 10 9 6 10 8 6 6 8 12
JUNE 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 5 11 9 7 6 28 14 5 11 12 5 4 6 19
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 13 11 10 9 7 5 4 10 5 9 9 9 59 14 11
JULY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 6 5 5 10 8 3 8 10 6 6 6 5 4 5 7
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 10 5 5 5 7 5 9 5 6 9 23 13 7 6 23 17
AUGUST 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 22 9 10 46 10 6 7 7 7 7 28 122 17 12 6
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 8 31 13 10 7 8 10 7 10 7 5 11 26 5 23 26
SEPTEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 16 8 7 13 7 7 8 9 9 7 8 67 37 21 19
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 23 71 12 20 7 6 5 13 17 32 13 7 7 16 11
OCTOBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 6 7 8 8 6 16 55 58 19 96 116 20 5 8 15
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 15 9 14 23 7 5 8 9 13 3 14 10 17 12 15 9
NOVEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 7 13 11 14 11 10 9 11 32 25 10 5 7 11 13
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 8 8 4 9 9 8 12 8 6 11 7 5 4 8 11
DECEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 7 6 13 7 5 5 6 7
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP:
EXTERNAL EFFECTS
December 5, 2024
The planetary geomagnetic field today saw quiet conditions with AP 5. High latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 3. Medium latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 5.
Unsettled conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely December 6-8. Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels December 6-8, 2024 a moderate chance (30%) of an M-class flare and 5% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 5% probability in this time period.
The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 3 at 10:00 UT on December 5, 2024.
The Wolf Sunspot number today was 101. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 175 on December 5, 2024.
SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY
Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares
are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the
near future.
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4290 0008 0016 0022 C5.3 (December 5, 2024) 3.4E-03
4330 0623 0631 0638 C2.8 (December 5, 2024) 8.3E-04
Pakistan M 5.2 06:22 UT
4340 0638 0641 0645 C3.3 (December 5, 2024) 1.3E-03
4350 0656 0709 0733 M1.0 (December 5, 2024) 1.6E-02
4370 0812 0820 0824 M1.1 (December 5, 2024) 4.2E-03
Northern California M 7.0 18:44 UT (antipodal local solar midnight 08:20 UT)
4400 1032 1040 1046 M2.5 (December 5, 2024) 1.1E-02
Mindanao M 4.4 10:30 UT
Tarapaca M 4.5 10:41 UT
4420 1206 1212 1221 C2.7 (December 5, 2024) 2.2E-03
Buryatiya, Russia M 4.6 12:08 UT
Fiji M 4.4 12:26 UT
4430 1250 1256 1300 C2.6 (December 5, 2024) 1.4E-03
Izu Is. M 4.2 12:59 UT
4440 1334 1347 1403 C3.6 (December 5, 2024) 5.6E-03
Argentina M 5.2 13:39 UT
Iran M 4.2 13:42 UT; M 5.0 13:25 UT
4450 1455 1524 1536 C4.7 (December 5, 2024) 8.8E-03
4470 1917 1930 1935 C3.8 (December 5, 2024) 7.0E-04
East Pacific Rise M 5.1 19:41 UT
Northern California M 7.0 18:44 UT
4490 2037 2046 2053 C2.2 (December 5, 2024) 1.9E-03
Jalisco M 3.6 20:37 UT
Northern California M 3.4 20:39 UT
Cyprus M 4.2 20:53 UT
4500 2108 2115 2122 C6.2 (December 5, 2024) 3.6E-03
Northern California M 3.4 21:08 UT
4510 2144 2149 2153 C3.2 (December 5, 2024) 1.7E-03
Mongolia M 3.8 21:58 UT
4520 2211 2218 2222 C3.4 (December 5, 2024) 1.8E-03
Sulawesi M 4.2 22:17 UT
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 15, 2024 at 13:18:25 UT (#241115A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 13, 2024 at 07:48:13 UT (#241113A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V=14.97 was assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 5, 2024 at 16:06:04 UT (#241105A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 1, 2024 at 05:41:45 UT (#241101A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 30, 2024 at 18:34:20 UT (#241030B). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 30, 2024 at 05:48:03 UT (#241030A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V=13.71 was assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 26, 2024 at 22:42:32 UT (#241026A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 25, 2024 at 01:36:50 UT (#241025A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 10, 2024 at 10:05:14 UT (#241010A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 6, 2024 at 21:51:58 UT (#241006A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB of V>17.4.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 2, 2024 at 00:50:22 UT (#241002A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB of V>19.8. The last GRB with UVOT of equal or greater value occurred on November 11, 2023 with UVOT V=19.85.
AP INDICES
FEBRUARY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 3 3 6 7 8 4 5 6 5 15 4 10 7 4
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
AP: 4 4 6 3 6 4 6 3 7 13 11 13 6 4
MARCH 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 9 5 29 10 7 6 12 11 13 7 4 6 5 9 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 3 3 8 9 4 27 11 36 64 22 11 7 7 6 5 9
APRIL 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 11 8 3 12 12 10 6 8 11 8 6 7 5 6 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 31 7 4 41 12 19 9 8 4 3 19 12 7 6 12
MAY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 8 44 10 6 12 15 7 7 7 118 273 70 30 6 10
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 27 29 12 9 7 9 4 10 9 6 10 8 6 6 8 12
JUNE 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 5 11 9 7 6 28 14 5 11 12 5 4 6 19
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 13 11 10 9 7 5 4 10 5 9 9 9 59 14 11
JULY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 6 5 5 10 8 3 8 10 6 6 6 5 4 5 7
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 10 5 5 5 7 5 9 5 6 9 23 13 7 6 23 17
AUGUST 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 22 9 10 46 10 6 7 7 7 7 28 122 17 12 6
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 8 31 13 10 7 8 10 7 10 7 5 11 26 5 23 26
SEPTEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 16 8 7 13 7 7 8 9 9 7 8 67 37 21 19
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 23 71 12 20 7 6 5 13 17 32 13 7 7 16 11
OCTOBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 6 7 8 8 6 16 55 58 19 96 116 20 5 8 15
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 15 9 14 23 7 5 8 9 13 3 14 10 17 12 15 9
NOVEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 7 13 11 14 11 10 9 11 32 25 10 5 7 11 13
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 8 8 4 9 9 8 12 8 6 11 7 5 4 8 11
DECEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 7 6 13 7
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP:
EXTERNAL EFFECTS
November 30, 2024
The planetary geomagnetic field today saw disturbed conditions with AP 11. High latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 5. Medium latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 9.
Quiet conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely October 31 with unsettled conditions November 1-2. Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels December 1-3, 2024 a moderate chance (40%) of an M-class flare and 5% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 10% probability in this time period.
The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 4 at 01:00 UT on November 30, 2024.
The Wolf Sunspot number today was 103. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 204 on November 30, 2024.
SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY
Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares
are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the
near future.
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3130 0119 0129 0136 C3.5 (November 30, 2024) 2.9E-03
Fiji Is. M 4.5 01:19 UT
3160 0556 0600 0604 C5.6 (November 30, 2024) 1.9E-03
Puerto Rico M 3.6 05:56 UT
3170 0726 0733 0742 C3.5 (November 30, 2024) 2.9E-03
3180 0753 0758 0803 C2.6 (November 30, 2024) 1.6E-03
Kermadec Is. M 4.6 07:52 UT
3200 0837 0851 0859 C4.3 (November 30, 2024) 5.3E-03
Ryukyu Is. M 5.7 08:46 UT; M 4.8 08:34 UT
Mindanao M 4.0 08:46 UT
3210 0859 0906 0912 C9.3 (November 30, 2024) 5.9E-03
Ryukyu Is. M 5.2 09:07 UT
Honshu M 4.3 09:06 UT
3230 1034 1045 1051 C5.3 (November 30, 2024) 3.5E-03
Mariana Islands M 5.1 10:34 UT
Guatemala M 4.4 10:53 UT
3270 1444 1453 1505 C2.1 (November 30, 2024) 1.0E-03
Tonga M 4.6 14:48 UT
Gulf of California M 4.2 15:02 UT
Banda M 4.4 15:06 UT
Tonga M 4.7 15:06 UT
Revilla Gigedo Islands, Mexico M 5.4 15:08 UT
3280 1517 1524 1532 C3.0 (November 30, 2024) 1.1E-03
3300 1609 1618 1625 C3.2 (November 30, 2024) 2.5E-03
Mindanao M 4.6 16:10 UT
This earthquake occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and was probably
promoted by SFE associated with this flare. SFE is strongest near local solar noon and midnight.
It may also have been promoted by stresses associated with the new moon of
December 1 as noted in previous issues of this summary.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 15, 2024 at 13:18:25 UT (#241115A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 13, 2024 at 07:48:13 UT (#241113A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V=14.97 was assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 5, 2024 at 16:06:04 UT (#241105A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 1, 2024 at 05:41:45 UT (#241101A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 30, 2024 at 18:34:20 UT (#241030B). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 30, 2024 at 05:48:03 UT (#241030A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V=13.71 was assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 26, 2024 at 22:42:32 UT (#241026A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 25, 2024 at 01:36:50 UT (#241025A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 10, 2024 at 10:05:14 UT (#241010A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 6, 2024 at 21:51:58 UT (#241006A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB of V>17.4.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 2, 2024 at 00:50:22 UT (#241002A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB of V>19.8. The last GRB with UVOT of equal or greater value occurred on November 11, 2023 with UVOT V=19.85.
AP INDICES
FEBRUARY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 3 3 6 7 8 4 5 6 5 15 4 10 7 4
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
AP: 4 4 6 3 6 4 6 3 7 13 11 13 6 4
MARCH 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 9 5 29 10 7 6 12 11 13 7 4 6 5 9 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 3 3 8 9 4 27 11 36 64 22 11 7 7 6 5 9
APRIL 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 11 8 3 12 12 10 6 8 11 8 6 7 5 6 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 31 7 4 41 12 19 9 8 4 3 19 12 7 6 12
MAY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 8 44 10 6 12 15 7 7 7 118 273 70 30 6 10
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 27 29 12 9 7 9 4 10 9 6 10 8 6 6 8 12
JUNE 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 5 11 9 7 6 28 14 5 11 12 5 4 6 19
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 13 11 10 9 7 5 4 10 5 9 9 9 59 14 11
JULY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 6 5 5 10 8 3 8 10 6 6 6 5 4 5 7
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 10 5 5 5 7 5 9 5 6 9 23 13 7 6 23 17
AUGUST 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 22 9 10 46 10 6 7 7 7 7 28 122 17 12 6
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 8 31 13 10 7 8 10 7 10 7 5 11 26 5 23 26
SEPTEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 16 8 7 13 7 7 8 9 9 7 8 67 37 21 19
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 23 71 12 20 7 6 5 13 17 32 13 7 7 16 11
OCTOBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 6 7 8 8 6 16 55 58 19 96 116 20 5 8 15
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 15 9 14 23 7 5 8 9 13 3 14 10 17 12 15 9
NOVEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 7 13 11 14 11 10 9 11 32 25 10 5 7 11 13
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 8 8 4 9 9 8 12 8 6 11 7 5 4 8 11
DECEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 7 6 13 7
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP:
EXTERNAL EFFECTS
November 1, 2024
The planetary geomagnetic field today saw quiet conditions with AP 7. High latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 14. Medium latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 6.
Unsettled conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely November 2 with active conditions November 3-4. Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels November 2-4 with a moderate chance (75%) of an M-class flare and 35% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 30% probability in this time period.
The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 5 at 17:00 UT on November 1, 2024.
The Wolf Sunspot number today was 210. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 256 on November 1, 2024.
SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY
Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares
are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the
near future.
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOLAR FLARES OF C-, M- or X-CLASS
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3990 0205 0216 0220 M1.3 (November 1, 2024) 6.8E-03
Tajikistan M 4.2 02:39 UT
Guerrero M 4.6 02:49 UT
4060 0804 0810 0820 C5.4 (November 1, 2024) 4.6E-03
Volcano Is. M 4.7 08:24 UT
Java M 4.6 08:33 UT
4120 0946 1014 1108 M1.0 (November 1, 2024) 4.3E-02
4200 1219 1227 1239 C8.4 (November 1, 2024) 1.0E-02
4210 1239 1252 1300 M1.3 (November 1, 2024) 1.4E-02
Tajikistan M 4.2 12:41 UT
4290 1624 1633 1641 C6.3 (November 1, 2024) 5.5E-03
4300 1719 1730 1738 C6.1 (November 1, 2024) 6.1E-03
4360 1957 2011 2036 C4.6 (November 1, 2024) 9.8E-03
Hindu Kush M 4.8 20:01 UT
AP INDICES
JANUARY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 10 6 11 6 5 3 3 4 6 7 6 4 3 6 6
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 6 4 6 8 6 6 9 7 10 6 6 5 8 9 8 6
FEBRUARY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 3 3 6 7 8 4 5 6 5 15 4 10 7 4
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
AP: 4 4 6 3 6 4 6 3 7 13 11 13 6 4
MARCH 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 9 5 29 10 7 6 12 11 13 7 4 6 5 9 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 3 3 8 9 4 27 11 36 64 22 11 7 7 6 5 9
APRIL 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 11 8 3 12 12 10 6 8 11 8 6 7 5 6 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 31 7 4 41 12 19 9 8 4 3 19 12 7 6 12
MAY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 8 44 10 6 12 15 7 7 7 118 273 70 30 6 10
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 27 29 12 9 7 9 4 10 9 6 10 8 6 6 8 12
JUNE 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 5 11 9 7 6 28 14 5 11 12 5 4 6 19
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 13 11 10 9 7 5 4 10 5 9 9 9 59 14 11
JULY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 6 5 5 10 8 3 8 10 6 6 6 5 4 5 7
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 10 5 5 5 7 5 9 5 6 9 23 13 7 6 23 17
AUGUST 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 22 9 10 46 10 6 7 7 7 7 28 122 17 12 6
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 8 31 13 10 7 8 10 7 10 7 5 11 26 5 23 26
SEPTEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 16 8 7 13 7 7 8 9 9 7 8 67 37 21 19
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 23 71 12 20 7 6 5 13 17 32 13 7 7 16 11
OCTOBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 6 7 8 8 6 16 55 58 19 96 116 20 5 8 15
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 15 9 14 23 7 5 8 9 13 3 14 10 17 12 15 9
NOVEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 7 13 11 14 11 10 9 11 32 25 10 5 7 11 13
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 8 8 4 9 9 8 12 8 7 11 7 5
EXTERNAL EFFECTS
October 31, 2024
The planetary geomagnetic field today saw disturbed conditions with AP 15. High latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 18. Medium latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 10.
Quiet conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely October 31 with unsettled conditions November 1-2. Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels October 31-November 2 with a moderate chance (75%) of an M-class flare and 25% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 99% probability in this time period.
The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 5 at 18:00 UT on October 30, 2024.
The Wolf Sunspot number today was 200. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 270 on October 30, 2024.
SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY
Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares
are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the
near future.
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3320 0910 1017 1107 C7.1 (October 30, 2024) 3.9E-02
3330 1157 1204 1215 C4.6 (October 30, 2024) 4.7E-03
New Britain M 6.0 12:18 UT
3370 1546 1550 1556 C5.0 (October 30, 2024) 2.9E-03
3380 1852 1855 1911 C5.0 (October 30, 2024) 5.4E-03
Santa Crus Is. M 4.5 18:49 UT
3390 2014 2022 2029 C5.4 (October 30, 2024) 5.5E-03
Fox Is. M 3.5 20:24 UT
Fox Is. M 3.7 20:24 UT
Coast of Oregon M 6.0 20:15 UT
3410 2029 2053 2114 M7.2 (October 30, 2024) 1.1E-01
Fox Is. M 3.5 20:24 UT
Fox Is. M 3.7 20:24 UT
Coast of Oregon M 6.0 20:15 UT
Northern Philippines M 4.7 21:39 UT
Idaho M 2.5 21:14 UT
EXTERNAL EFFECTS
October 30, 2024
The planetary geomagnetic field today saw disturbed conditions with AP 15. High latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 18. Medium latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 10.
Quiet conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely October 31 with unsettled conditions November 1-2. Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels October 31-November 2 with a moderate chance (75%) of an M-class flare and 25% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 99% probability in this time period.
The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 5 at 18:00 UT on October 30, 2024.
The Wolf Sunspot number today was 200. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 270 on October 30, 2024.
SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY
Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares
are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the
near future.
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3320 0910 1017 1107 C7.1 (October 30, 2024) 3.9E-02
3330 1157 1204 1215 C4.6 (October 30, 2024) 4.7E-03
New Britain M 6.0 12:18 UT
3370 1546 1550 1556 C5.0 (October 30, 2024) 2.9E-03
3380 1852 1855 1911 C5.0 (October 30, 2024) 5.4E-03
Santa Crus Is. M 4.5 18:49 UT
3390 2014 2022 2029 C5.4 (October 30, 2024) 5.5E-03
Fox Is. M 3.5 20:24 UT
Fox Is. M 3.7 20:24 UT
Coast of Oregon M 6.0 20:15 UT
3410 2029 2053 2114 M7.2 (October 30, 2024) 1.1E-01
Fox Is. M 3.5 20:24 UT
Fox Is. M 3.7 20:24 UT
Coast of Oregon M 6.0 20:15 UT
Northern Philippines M 4.7 21:39 UT
Idaho M 2.5 21:14 UT
AP INDICES
JANUARY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 10 6 11 6 5 3 3 4 6 7 6 4 3 6 6
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 6 4 6 8 6 6 9 7 10 6 6 5 8 9 8 6
FEBRUARY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 3 3 6 7 8 4 5 6 5 15 4 10 7 4
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
AP: 4 4 6 3 6 4 6 3 7 13 11 13 6 4
MARCH 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 9 5 29 10 7 6 12 11 13 7 4 6 5 9 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 3 3 8 9 4 27 11 36 64 22 11 7 7 6 5 9
APRIL 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 11 8 3 12 12 10 6 8 11 8 6 7 5 6 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 31 7 4 41 12 19 9 8 4 3 19 12 7 6 12
MAY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 8 44 10 6 12 15 7 7 7 118 273 70 30 6 10
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 27 29 12 9 7 9 4 10 9 6 10 8 6 6 8 12
JUNE 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 5 11 9 7 6 28 14 5 11 12 5 4 6 19
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 13 11 10 9 7 5 4 10 5 9 9 9 59 14 11
JULY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 6 5 5 10 8 3 8 10 6 6 6 5 4 5 7
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 10 5 5 5 7 5 9 5 6 9 23 13 7 6 23 17
AUGUST 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 22 9 10 46 10 6 7 7 7 7 28 122 17 12 6
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 8 31 13 10 7 8 10 7 10 7 5 11 26 5 23 26
SEPTEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 16 8 7 13 7 7 8 9 9 7 8 67 37 21 19
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 23 71 12 20 7 6 5 13 17 32 13 7 7 16 11
OCTOBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 6 7 8 8 6 16 55 58 19 96 116 20 5 8 15
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 15 9 14 23 7 5 8 9 13 3 14 10 17 12 15 9
NOVEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 7 13 11 14 11 10 9 11 32 25 10 5 7 11 13
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 8 8 4
EXTERNAL EFFECTS
October 29, 2024
The planetary geomagnetic field today saw disturbed conditions with AP 17. High latitudes saw minor storm conditions with AP 30. Medium latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 11.
Active conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely October 29 with unsettled conditions October 30 and quiet October 31. Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels October 29-31 with a moderate chance (75%) of an M-class flare and 30% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 99% probability in this time period.
The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 6 at 17:00 UT on October 28, 2024.
The Wolf Sunspot number today was 189. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 255 on October 28, 2024.
SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY
Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares
are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the
near future.
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2840 0023 0030 0046 C5.0 (October 28, 2024) 6.0E-03
2860 0256 0302 0315 C3.8 (October 28, 2024) 4.1E-03
Costa Rica M 4.7 03:01 UT
2870 0359 0409 0416 M1.3 (October 28, 2024) 1.0E-02
Colombia M 4.4 04:03 UT
2890 0611 0615 0619 C3.8 (October 28, 2024) 1.2E-03
2910 0643 0701 0724 C8.0 (October 28, 2024) 1.2E-03
Northern Colombia M 4.5 07:08 UT
Chiapas M 4.0 07:23 UT
2930 0809 0813 0817 C3.9 (October 28, 2024) 1.8E-03
New Ireland M 4.7 08:33 UT
2960 0901 0913 0925 C7.1 (October 28, 2024) 8.1E-03
Santa Catalina CA, M 2.0 09:26 UT
Kyushu M 4.0 09:25 UT
2970 1003 1007 1011 C4.5 (October 28, 2024) 2.0E-03
Alberta M 3.0 10:12 UT
3010 1441 1444 1448 M1.2 (October 28, 2024) 4.2E-03
3020 1500 1508 1515 C9.4 (October 28, 2024) 5.2E-03
Papua New Guinea M 4.2 15:17 UT
3040 1613 1628 1644 M4.2 (October 28, 2024) 2.2E-03
3060 1824 1832 1840 C7.3 (October 28, 2024) 6.2E-03
3080 2137 2143 2152 C5.2 (October 28, 2024) 4.3E-03
Ecuador M 3.6 21:50 UT
New South Wales M 1.6 21:47 UT
3110 2201 2207 2219 C7.6 (October 28, 2024) 8.3E-03
3120 2219 2229 2234 C7.6 (October 28, 2024) 6.7E-03
Fiji M 4.8 22:33 UT
AP INDICES
JANUARY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 10 6 11 6 5 3 3 4 6 7 6 4 3 6 6
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 6 4 6 8 6 6 9 7 10 6 6 5 8 9 8 6
FEBRUARY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 3 3 6 7 8 4 5 6 5 15 4 10 7 4
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
AP: 4 4 6 3 6 4 6 3 7 13 11 13 6 4
MARCH 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 9 5 29 10 7 6 12 11 13 7 4 6 5 9 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 3 3 8 9 4 27 11 36 64 22 11 7 7 6 5 9
APRIL 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 11 8 3 12 12 10 6 8 11 8 6 7 5 6 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 31 7 4 41 12 19 9 8 4 3 19 12 7 6 12
MAY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 8 44 10 6 12 15 7 7 7 118 273 70 30 6 10
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 27 29 12 9 7 9 4 10 9 6 10 8 6 6 8 12
JUNE 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 5 11 9 7 6 28 14 5 11 12 5 4 6 19
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 13 11 10 9 7 5 4 10 5 9 9 9 59 14 11
JULY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 6 5 5 10 8 3 8 10 6 6 6 5 4 5 7
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 10 5 5 5 7 5 9 5 6 9 23 13 7 6 23 17
AUGUST 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 22 9 10 46 10 6 7 7 7 7 28 122 17 12 6
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 8 31 13 10 7 8 10 7 10 7 5 11 26 5 23 26
SEPTEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 16 8 7 13 7 7 8 9 9 7 8 67 37 21 19
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 23 71 12 20 7 6 5 13 17 32 13 7 7 16 11
OCTOBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 6 7 8 8 6 16 55 58 19 96 116 20 5 8 15
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 15 9 14 23 7 5 8 9 13 3 14 10 17 12 15 9
NOVEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 7 13 11 14 11 10 9 11 32 25 10 5 7 11 13
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 8 8 4
EXTERNAL EFFECTS
October 28, 2024
The planetary geomagnetic field today saw disturbed conditions with AP 17. High latitudes saw minor storm conditions with AP 30. Medium latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 11.
Active conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely October 29 with unsettled conditions October 30 and quiet October 31. Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels October 29-31 with a moderate chance (75%) of an M-class flare and 30% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 99% probability in this time period.
The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 6 at 17:00 UT on October 28, 2024.
The Wolf Sunspot number today was 189. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 255 on October 28, 2024.
SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY
Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares
are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the
near future.
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2840 0023 0030 0046 C5.0 (October 28, 2024) 6.0E-03
2860 0256 0302 0315 C3.8 (October 28, 2024) 4.1E-03
Costa Rica M 4.7 03:01 UT
2870 0359 0409 0416 M1.3 (October 28, 2024) 1.0E-02
Colombia M 4.4 04:03 UT
2890 0611 0615 0619 C3.8 (October 28, 2024) 1.2E-03
2910 0643 0701 0724 C8.0 (October 28, 2024) 1.2E-03
Northern Colombia M 4.5 07:08 UT
Chiapas M 4.0 07:23 UT
2930 0809 0813 0817 C3.9 (October 28, 2024) 1.8E-03
New Ireland M 4.7 08:33 UT
2960 0901 0913 0925 C7.1 (October 28, 2024) 8.1E-03
Santa Catalina CA, M 2.0 09:26 UT
Kyushu M 4.0 09:25 UT
2970 1003 1007 1011 C4.5 (October 28, 2024) 2.0E-03
Alberta M 3.0 10:12 UT
3010 1441 1444 1448 M1.2 (October 28, 2024) 4.2E-03
3020 1500 1508 1515 C9.4 (October 28, 2024) 5.2E-03
Papua New Guinea M 4.2 15:17 UT
3040 1613 1628 1644 M4.2 (October 28, 2024) 2.2E-03
3060 1824 1832 1840 C7.3 (October 28, 2024) 6.2E-03
3080 2137 2143 2152 C5.2 (October 28, 2024) 4.3E-03
Ecuador M 3.6 21:50 UT
New South Wales M 1.6 21:47 UT
3110 2201 2207 2219 C7.6 (October 28, 2024) 8.3E-03
3120 2219 2229 2234 C7.6 (October 28, 2024) 6.7E-03
Fiji M 4.8 22:33 UT
AP INDICES
JANUARY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 10 6 11 6 5 3 3 4 6 7 6 4 3 6 6
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 6 4 6 8 6 6 9 7 10 6 6 5 8 9 8 6
FEBRUARY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 3 3 6 7 8 4 5 6 5 15 4 10 7 4
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
AP: 4 4 6 3 6 4 6 3 7 13 11 13 6 4
MARCH 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 9 5 29 10 7 6 12 11 13 7 4 6 5 9 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 3 3 8 9 4 27 11 36 64 22 11 7 7 6 5 9
APRIL 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 11 8 3 12 12 10 6 8 11 8 6 7 5 6 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 31 7 4 41 12 19 9 8 4 3 19 12 7 6 12
MAY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 8 44 10 6 12 15 7 7 7 118 273 70 30 6 10
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 27 29 12 9 7 9 4 10 9 6 10 8 6 6 8 12
JUNE 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 5 11 9 7 6 28 14 5 11 12 5 4 6 19
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 13 11 10 9 7 5 4 10 5 9 9 9 59 14 11
JULY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 6 5 5 10 8 3 8 10 6 6 6 5 4 5 7
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 10 5 5 5 7 5 9 5 6 9 23 13 7 6 23 17
AUGUST 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 22 9 10 46 10 6 7 7 7 7 28 122 17 12 6
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 8 31 13 10 7 8 10 7 10 7 5 11 26 5 23 26
SEPTEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 16 8 7 13 7 7 8 9 9 7 8 67 37 21 19
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 23 71 12 20 7 6 5 13 17 32 13 7 7 16 11
OCTOBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 6 7 8 8 6 16 55 58 19 96 116 20 5 8 15
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 15 9 14 23 7 5 8 9 13 3 14 10 17 12 15 9
NOVEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 7 13 11 14 11 10 9 11 32 25 10 5 7 11 13
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 8 8 4
EXTERNAL EFFECTS
October 27, 2024
The planetary geomagnetic field today saw disturbed conditions with AP 10. High latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 14. Medium latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 8.
Minor storm conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely October 28 with active conditions October 29-30. Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels October 28-30 with a moderate chance (75%) of an M-class flare and 30% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 99% probability in this time period.
The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 4 at 18:00 UT on October 27, 2024.
The Wolf Sunspot number today was 198. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 246 on October 27, 2024.
SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY
Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares
are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the
near future.
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2610 0316 0324 0333 C8.3 (October 27, 2024) 6.6E-03
Honshu M 3.9 03:32 UT
2650 0518 0532 0549 C7.6 (October 27, 2024) 1.2E-02
2700 1125 1132 1138 C4.3 (October 27, 2024) 3.1E-03
Peru M 4.1 11:35 UT
Los Angeles M 2.0 11:45 UT
2720 1232 1242 1257 C7.9 (October 27, 2024) 8.9E-03
2740 1306 1315 1323 C7.1 (October 27, 2024) 1.9E-03
El Salvador M 4.1 13:06 UT
Northern Philippines M 3.6 13:04 UT
2760 1323 1326 1331 C9.8 (October 27, 2024) 4.3E-03
Kep Obi, Indonesia M 4.5 13:32 UT, M 4.7 13:35 UT
2780 1523 1535 1542 C7.4 (October 27, 2024) 7.4E-03
Jan Mayen M 4.2 15:41 UT
Mindanao M 4.6 15:56 UT
2800 2008 2018 2029 C4.9 (October 27, 2024) 5.3E-03
2820 2305 2324 2344 M2.8 (October 27, 2024) 3.9E-02
Eastern Tennessee M 2.0 23:16 UT
AP INDICES
JANUARY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 10 6 11 6 5 3 3 4 6 7 6 4 3 6 6
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 6 4 6 8 6 6 9 7 10 6 6 5 8 9 8 6
FEBRUARY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 3 3 6 7 8 4 5 6 5 15 4 10 7 4
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
AP: 4 4 6 3 6 4 6 3 7 13 11 13 6 4
MARCH 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 9 5 29 10 7 6 12 11 13 7 4 6 5 9 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 3 3 8 9 4 27 11 36 64 22 11 7 7 6 5 9
APRIL 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 11 8 3 12 12 10 6 8 11 8 6 7 5 6 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 31 7 4 41 12 19 9 8 4 3 19 12 7 6 12
MAY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 8 44 10 6 12 15 7 7 7 118 273 70 30 6 10
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 27 29 12 9 7 9 4 10 9 6 10 8 6 6 8 12
JUNE 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 5 11 9 7 6 28 14 5 11 12 5 4 6 19
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 13 11 10 9 7 5 4 10 5 9 9 9 59 14 11
JULY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 6 5 5 10 8 3 8 10 6 6 6 5 4 5 7
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 10 5 5 5 7 5 9 5 6 9 23 13 7 6 23 17
AUGUST 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 22 9 10 46 10 6 7 7 7 7 28 122 17 12 6
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 8 31 13 10 7 8 10 7 10 7 5 11 26 5 23 26
SEPTEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 16 8 7 13 7 7 8 9 9 7 8 67 37 21 19
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 23 71 12 20 7 6 5 13 17 32 13 7 7 16 11
OCTOBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 6 7 8 8 6 16 55 58 19 96 116 20 5 8 15
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 15 9 14 23 7 5 8 9 13 3 14 10 17 12 15 9
NOVEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 7 13 11 14 11 10 9 11 32 25 10 5 7 11
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP:
EXTERNAL EFFECTS
October 25, 2024
The planetary geomagnetic field today saw quiet conditions with AP 3. High latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 1. Medium latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 2.
Minor storm conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely October 26 with active conditions October 27-28. Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels October 26-28 with a moderate chance (75%) of an M-class flare and 25% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 20% probability in this time period.
The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 2 at 20:00 UT on October 25, 2024.
The Wolf Sunspot number today was 157. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 209 on October 25, 2024.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 4, 2024 at 16:04:19 UT (#240904A). No preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 5, 2024 at 18:26:03 UT (#240905E). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB of V>17.38.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 12, 2024 at 01:46:39 UT (#240912A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB of V>17.78.
A strong X-class (about X2.0) occurred today starting at about 03:00 UT on October 24 and
lasting for several hours. An estimate of the parameters from SWPC for this event follow:
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
XXXX 0300 0350 0730 X2.0 (October 24, 2024) 9.6E-02
This is the first X-class flare in the past two weeks - since an X1.3 on October, 29, 2024 (#7930)
with the last of larger energy as an X7.1 on October 1, 2024 and an X9.0 on October 3, 2024.
It occurred while the regions of Taiwan and the Philippines and Japan near 135 East longitude were at local solar
noon. This is the area most likely to see enhanced seismicity related to this flare;
secondarily, the area near the eastern U.S. and Canada, the Central Atlantic
Ridge and the northern Caribbean were near local solar midnight at the
time of this flare and could see related enhanced seismicity in the next
several days. This flare is likely to reset global seismicity from the
relatively quiet two previous weeks. In response to this, this summary will
emphasize current seismicity for the foreseeable future. Final daily reports
will be current and older unpublished reports will be produced as time permits.
A major eathquake is likely at this time and is overdue since the last such
event occurred more than two months ago in Tonga (M 6.9) in late August, 2024.
SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY
Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares
are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the
near future.
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2380 0632 0719 0756 X1.8 (October 26, 2024) 8.9E-01
Colorado M 3.4 06:29 UT
El Salvador M 4.3 06:54 UT
Kerguelen Islands M 5.2 07:23 UT
2030 0255 0302 0309 C2.6 (October 25, 2024) 2.0E-03
2060 0513 0518 0531 C3.5 (October 25, 2024) 3.3E-03
2070 0652 0659 0705 C2.8 (October 25, 2024) 1.4E-03
Central California M 2.5, 4.7 ... 07:28 UT
2080 0723 0733 0738 M1.1 (October 25, 2024) 5.0E-03
Central California M 2.5, 4.7 ... 07:28 UT
2120 1026 1035 1044 C3.5 (October 25, 2024) 7.7E-04
2140 1145 1149 1153 C2.9 (October 25, 2024) 1.4E-03
2200 1722 1727 1731 C2.7 (October 25, 2024) 1.4E-03
2220 1853 1858 1904 C3.2 (October 25, 2024) 2.0E-03
AP INDICES
JANUARY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 10 6 11 6 5 3 3 4 6 7 6 4 3 6 6
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 6 4 6 8 6 6 9 7 10 6 6 5 8 9 8 6
FEBRUARY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 3 3 6 7 8 4 5 6 5 15 4 10 7 4
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
AP: 4 4 6 3 6 4 6 3 7 13 11 13 6 4
MARCH 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 9 5 29 10 7 6 12 11 13 7 4 6 5 9 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 3 3 8 9 4 27 11 36 64 22 11 7 7 6 5 9
APRIL 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 11 8 3 12 12 10 6 8 11 8 6 7 5 6 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 31 7 4 41 12 19 9 8 4 3 19 12 7 6 12
MAY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 8 44 10 6 12 15 7 7 7 118 273 70 30 6 10
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 27 29 12 9 7 9 4 10 9 6 10 8 6 6 8 12
JUNE 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 5 11 9 7 6 28 14 5 11 12 5 4 6 19
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 13 11 10 9 7 5 4 10 5 9 9 9 59 14 11
JULY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 6 5 5 10 8 3 8 10 6 6 6 5 4 5 7
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 10 5 5 5 7 5 9 5 6 9 23 13 7 6 23 17
AUGUST 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 22 9 10 46 10 6 7 7 7 7 28 122 17 12 6
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 8 31 13 10 7 8 10 7 10 7 5 11 26 5 23 26
SEPTEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 16 8 7 13 7 7 8 9 9 7 8 67 37 21 19
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 23 71 12 20 7 6 5 13 17 32 13 7 7 16 11
OCTOBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 6 7 8 8 6 16 55 58 19 96 116 20 5 8 15
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 15 9 14 23 7 5 8 9 13 3 14 10 17 12 15 9
NOVEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 7 13 11 16
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP:
EXTERNAL EFFECTS
October 25, 2024
The planetary geomagnetic field today saw quiet conditions with AP 3. High latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 1. Medium latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 2.
Minor storm conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely October 26 with active conditions October 27-28. Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels October 26-28 with a moderate chance (75%) of an M-class flare and 25% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 20% probability in this time period.
The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 2 at 20:00 UT on October 25, 2024.
The Wolf Sunspot number today was 157. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 209 on October 25, 2024.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 4, 2024 at 16:04:19 UT (#240904A). No preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 5, 2024 at 18:26:03 UT (#240905E). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB of V>17.38.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 12, 2024 at 01:46:39 UT (#240912A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB of V>17.78.
A strong X-class (about X2.0) occurred today starting at about 03:00 UT on October 24 and
lasting for several hours. An estimate of the parameters from SWPC for this event follow:
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
XXXX 0300 0350 0730 X2.0 (October 24, 2024) 9.6E-02
This is the first X-class flare in the past two weeks - since an X1.3 on October, 29, 2024 (#7930)
with the last of larger energy as an X7.1 on October 1, 2024 and an X9.0 on October 3, 2024.
It occurred while the regions of Taiwan and the Philippines and Japan near 135 East longitude were at local solar
noon. This is the area most likely to see enhanced seismicity related to this flare;
secondarily, the area near the eastern U.S. and Canada, the Central Atlantic
Ridge and the northern Caribbean were near local solar midnight at the
time of this flare and could see related enhanced seismicity in the next
several days. This flare is likely to reset global seismicity from the
relatively quiet two previous weeks. In response to this, this summary will
emphasize current seismicity for the foreseeable future. Final daily reports
will be current and older unpublished reports will be produced as time permits.
A major eathquake is likely at this time and is overdue since the last such
event occurred more than two months ago in Tonga (M 6.9) in late August, 2024.
SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY
Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares
are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the
near future.
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2380 0632 0719 0756 X1.8 (Ocbober 26, 2024) 8.9E-01
Colorado M 3.4 06:29 UT
El Salvador M 4.3 06:54 UT
Kerguelen Islands M 5.2 07:23 UT
2030 0255 0302 0309 C2.6 (October 25, 2024) 2.0E-03
2060 0513 0518 0531 C3.5 (October 25, 2024) 3.3E-03
2070 0652 0659 0705 C2.8 (October 25, 2024) 1.4E-03
Central California M 2.5, 4.7 ... 07:28 UT
2080 0723 0733 0738 M1.1 (October 25, 2024) 5.0E-03
Central California M 2.5, 4.7 ... 07:28 UT
2120 1026 1035 1044 C3.5 (October 25, 2024) 7.7E-04
2140 1145 1149 1153 C2.9 (October 25, 2024) 1.4E-03
2200 1722 1727 1731 C2.7 (October 25, 2024) 1.4E-03
2220 1853 1858 1904 C3.2 (October 25, 2024) 2.0E-03
AP INDICES
JANUARY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 10 6 11 6 5 3 3 4 6 7 6 4 3 6 6
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 6 4 6 8 6 6 9 7 10 6 6 5 8 9 8 6
FEBRUARY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 3 3 6 7 8 4 5 6 5 15 4 10 7 4
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
AP: 4 4 6 3 6 4 6 3 7 13 11 13 6 4
MARCH 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 9 5 29 10 7 6 12 11 13 7 4 6 5 9 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 3 3 8 9 4 27 11 36 64 22 11 7 7 6 5 9
APRIL 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 11 8 3 12 12 10 6 8 11 8 6 7 5 6 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 31 7 4 41 12 19 9 8 4 3 19 12 7 6 12
MAY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 8 44 10 6 12 15 7 7 7 118 273 70 30 6 10
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 27 29 12 9 7 9 4 10 9 6 10 8 6 6 8 12
JUNE 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 5 11 9 7 6 28 14 5 11 12 5 4 6 19
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 13 11 10 9 7 5 4 10 5 9 9 9 59 14 11
JULY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 6 5 5 10 8 3 8 10 6 6 6 5 4 5 7
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 10 5 5 5 7 5 9 5 6 9 23 13 7 6 23 17
AUGUST 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 22 9 10 46 10 6 7 7 7 7 28 122 17 12 6
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 8 31 13 10 7 8 10 7 10 7 5 11 26 5 23 26
SEPTEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 16 8 7 13 7 7 8 9 9 7 8 67 37 21 19
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 23 71 12 20 7 6 5 13 17 32 13 7 7 16 11
OCTOBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 6 7 8 8 6 16 55 58 19 96 116 20 5 8 15
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 15 9 14 23 7 5 8 9 13 3 14 10 17 12 15 9
NOVEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 7 13 11 16
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP:
EXTERNAL EFFECTS
October 24, 2024
The planetary geomagnetic field today saw quiet conditions with AP 13. High latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 11. Medium latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 10.
Minor storm conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely October 26 with active conditions October 25 and 27. Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels October 25 with a moderate chance (70%) of an M-class flare and 15% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 10% probability in this time period.
The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 4 at 04:00 UT on October 24, 2024.
The Wolf Sunspot number today was 138. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 197 on October 24, 2024.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 4, 2024 at 16:04:19 UT (#240904A). No preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 5, 2024 at 18:26:03 UT (#240905E). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB of V>17.38.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 12, 2024 at 01:46:39 UT (#240912A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB of V>17.78.
A strong X-class (about X2.0) occurred today starting at about 03:00 UT on October 24 and
lasting for several hours. An estimate of the parameters from SWPC for this event follow:
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
XXXX 0300 0350 0730 X2.0 (October 24, 2024) 9.6E-02
This is the first X-class flare in the past two weeks - since an X1.3 on October, 29, 2024 (#7930)
with the last of larger energy as an X7.1 on October 1, 2024 and an X9.0 on October 3, 2024.
It occurred while the regions of Taiwan and the Philippines and Japan near 135 East longitude were at local solar
noon. This is the area most likely to see enhanced seismicity related to this flare;
secondarily, the area near the eastern U.S. and Canada, the Central Atlantic
Ridge and the northern Caribbean were near local solar midnight at the
time of this flare and could see related enhanced seismicity in the next
several days. This flare is likely to reset global seismicity from the
relatively quiet two previous weeks. In response to this, this summary will
emphasize current seismicity for the foreseeable future. Final daily reports
will be current and older unpublished reports will be produced as time permits.
A major eathquake is likely at this time and is overdue since the last such
event occurred more than two months ago in Tonga (M 6.9) in late August, 2024.
SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY
Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares
are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the
near future.
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1820 0330 0357 0428 X3.3 (October 24, 2024) 7.1E-01
1910 1022 1029 1034 M1.2 (October 24, 2024) 2.8E-03
1940 1242 1250 1258 C6.4 (October 24, 2024) 5.5E-03
AP INDICES
DECEMBER 2023
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 56 14 11 9 15 10 5 5 3 4 3 10 8 16 12
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 14 36 28 12 11 5 4 7 9 4 5 4 3 6 5 4
JANUARY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 10 6 11 6 5 3 3 4 6 7 6 4 3 6 6
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 6 4 6 8 6 6 9 7 10 6 6 5 8 9 8 6
FEBRUARY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 3 3 6 7 8 4 5 6 5 15 4 10 7 4
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
AP: 4 4 6 3 6 4 6 3 7 13 11 13 6 4
MARCH 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 9 5 29 10 7 6 12 11 13 7 4 6 5 9 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 3 3 8 9 4 27 11 36 64 22 11 7 7 6 5 9
APRIL 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 11 8 3 12 12 10 6 8 11 8 6 7 5 6 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 31 7 4 41 12 19 9 8 4 3 19 12 7 6 12
MAY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 8 44 10 6 12 15 7 7 7 118 273 70 30 6 10
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 27 29 12 9 7 9 4 10 9 6 10 8 6 6 8 12
JUNE 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 5 11 9 7 6 28 14 5 11 12 5 4 6 19
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 13 11 10 9 7 5 4 10 5 9 9 9 59 14 11
JULY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 6 5 5 10 8 3 8 10 6 6 6 5 4 5 7
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 10 5 5 5 7 5 9 5 6 9 23 13 7 6 23 17
AUGUST 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 22 9 10 46 10 6 7 7 7 7 28 122 17 12 6
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 8 31 13 10 7 8 10 7 10 7 5 11 26 5 23 26
SEPTEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 16 8 7 13 7 7 8 9 9 7 8 67 37 21 19
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 23 71 12 20 7 6 5 13 17 32 13 7 7 16 11
OCTOBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 6 7 8 8 6 16 55 58 19 96 116 20 5 8 15
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 15 9 14 23 7 5 8 9
EXTERNAL EFFECTS
October 23, 2024
The planetary geomagnetic field today saw quiet conditions with AP 9. High latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 15. Medium latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 7.
Disturbed conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely October 24 and 26 with active conditions October 25. Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels October 24 with a moderate chance (60%) of an M-class flare and 10% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 5% probability in this time period.
The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 5 at 14:00 UT on October 23, 2024.
The Wolf Sunspot number today was 104. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 185 on October 23, 2024.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 4, 2024 at 16:04:19 UT (#240904A). No preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 5, 2024 at 18:26:03 UT (#240905E). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB of V>17.38.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 12, 2024 at 01:46:39 UT (#240912A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB of V>17.78.
A strong X-class (about X2.0) occurred today starting at about 03:00 UT on October 24 and
lasting for several hours. An estimate of the parameters from SWPC for this event follow:
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
XXXX 0300 0350 0730 X2.0 (October 24, 2024) 9.6E-02
This is the first X-class flare in the past two weeks - since an X1.3 on October, 29, 2024 (#7930)
with the last of larger energy as an X7.1 on October 1, 2024 and an X9.0 on October 3, 2024.
It occurred while the regions of Taiwan and the Philippines and Japan near 135 East longitude were at local solar
noon. This is the area most likely to see enhanced seismicity related to this flare;
secondarily, the area near the eastern U.S. and Canada, the Central Atlantic
Ridge and the northern Caribbean were near local solar midnight at the
time of this flare and could see related enhanced seismicity in the next
several days. This flare is likely to reset global seismicity from the
relatively quiet two previous weeks. In response to this, this summary will
emphasize current seismicity for the foreseeable future. Final daily reports
will be current and older unpublished reports will be produced as time permits.
A major eathquake is likely at this time and is overdue since the last such
event occurred more than two months ago in Tonga (M 6.9) in late August, 2024.
SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY
Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares
are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the
near future.
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1510 0007 0026 0043 C5.1 (October 23, 2024) 8.8E-03
Antofagasta M 4.4 00:13 UT
Azores M 4.3 00:21 UT
Iceland M 3.0 00:31 UT
1560 1019 1022 1028 C3.5 (October 23, 2024) 1.8E-03
1580 1041 1046 1052 C4.0 (October 23, 2024) 1.2E-03
1590 1112 1120 1126 C4.6 (October 23, 2024) 3.1E-03
1600 1137 1212 1306 C7.8 (October 23, 2024) 3.3E-02
Nevada M 2.5 11:49 UT
1650 1708 1720 1729 C5.1 (October 23, 2024) 2.0E-03
Luzon, M 3.6 17:08 UT
1680 2102 2110 2118 C5.4 (October 23, 2024) 4.2E-03
Xizang M 4.0 21:11 UT
Kermadec Is. M 5.1 21:30 UT
1720 2244 2246 2250 C5.4 (October 23, 2024) 1.5E-03
Xinjiang, China M 3.0 22:49 UT
1730 2324 2333 2339 C4.2 (October 23, 2024) 3.2E-03
AP INDICES
DECEMBER 2023
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 56 14 11 9 15 10 5 5 3 4 3 10 8 16 12
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 14 36 28 12 11 5 4 7 9 4 5 4 3 6 5 4
JANUARY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 10 6 11 6 5 3 3 4 6 7 6 4 3 6 6
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 6 4 6 8 6 6 9 7 10 6 6 5 8 9 8 6
FEBRUARY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 3 3 6 7 8 4 5 6 5 15 4 10 7 4
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
AP: 4 4 6 3 6 4 6 3 7 13 11 13 6 4
MARCH 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 9 5 29 10 7 6 12 11 13 7 4 6 5 9 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 3 3 8 9 4 27 11 36 64 22 11 7 7 6 5 9
APRIL 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 11 8 3 12 12 10 6 8 11 8 6 7 5 6 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 31 7 4 41 12 19 9 8 4 3 19 12 7 6 12
MAY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 8 44 10 6 12 15 7 7 7 118 273 70 30 6 10
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 27 29 12 9 7 9 4 10 9 6 10 8 6 6 8 12
JUNE 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 5 11 9 7 6 28 14 5 11 12 5 4 6 19
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 13 11 10 9 7 5 4 10 5 9 9 9 59 14 11
JULY 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 6 5 5 10 8 3 8 10 6 6 6 5 4 5 7
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 10 5 5 5 7 5 9 5 6 9 23 13 7 6 23 17
AUGUST 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 22 9 10 46 10 6 7 7 7 7 28 122 17 12 6
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 8 31 13 10 7 8 10 7 10 7 5 11 26 5 23 26
SEPTEMBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 16 8 7 13 7 7 8 9 9 7 8 67 37 21 19
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 23 71 12 20 7 6 5 13 17 32 13 7 7 16 11
OCTOBER 2024
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 6 7 8 8 6 16 55 58 19 96 116 20 5 8 15
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 15 9 14 23 7 5 8 9
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