EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

September 23, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw disturbed conditions with AP 13. High latitudes saw active conditions with AP 24. Medium latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 9.

 

Quiet to unsettled conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely September 24-25 with minor storms September 25.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels September 24-26 with a moderate chance (40%) of an M-class flare and 10% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 10% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 9 at 18:00 UT on September 23, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 224. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 167 on September 23, 2024.    

 

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 4, 2024 at 16:04:19 UT (#240904A).  No preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 5, 2024 at 18:26:03 UT (#240905E).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB of V>17.38.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 12, 2024 at 01:46:39 UT (#240912A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB of V>17.78.

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2900       0959   1006      1010   C4.5      (September 23, 2024)   1.9E-03  

Oaxaca M 4.0 10:11 UT

 

2920       1423   1456      1534   M1.3      (September 23, 2024)   4.1E-02  

Guatemala M 4.1 14:37 UT

Peru M 4.2 14:40 UT

 

2940       1710   1716      1725   C3.3      (September 23, 2024)   2.9E-03  

 

AP INDICES

 

DECEMBER 2023

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  56 14  11  9 15 10   5  5  3   4    3  10   8  16  12                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:   14   36  28   12  11   5   4   7   9   4   5   4   3  6   5   4                                  

 

JANUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  10  6  11  6  5  3   3  4  6   7    6   4   3   6   6                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:    6    4   6    8   6   6   9   7  10   6   6   5   8  9   8   6                                  

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                        

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                      

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                          

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7    8  67  37  21  19                                       

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:   23   71  12   20   7   6   5  13  17  32  13   7   7 16  11                                       

 

 

OCTOBER   2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  7   8  8  6 16                                                                          

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:                                                                                                    

 

 

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

September 22, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw quiet conditions with AP 5. High latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 4. Medium latitudes saw quiet disturbed conditions with AP 3.

 

Quiet to unsettled conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely September 23-25.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels September 23-25 with a moderate chance (25%) of an M-class flare and 5% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 5% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 3 at 12:00 UT on September 22, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 114. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 163 on September 22, 2024.    

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 01:03:25 UT (#240824A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>18.7 was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 13:11:16 UT (#240824B).  No preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 25, 2024 at 15:52:59 UT (#240825A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>17.2 was assigned to this GRB.

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2770       1318   1327      1342   C3.7      (September 22, 2024)   3.8E-03  

2840       2112   2139      2205   M3.7      (September 22, 2024)   7.1E-02  

Honshu M 3.9 21:53 UT

Baja California M 3.4, 3.5, 21:58 UT

 

 

AP INDICES

 

DECEMBER 2023

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  56 14  11  9 15 10   5  5  3   4    3  10   8  16  12                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:   14   36  28   12  11   5   4   7   9   4   5   4   3  6   5   4                                  

 

JANUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  10  6  11  6  5  3   3  4  6   7    6   4   3   6   6                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:    6    4   6    8   6   6   9   7  10   6   6   5   8  9   8   6                                  

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                        

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                      

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                          

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7    8  67  37  21  19                                       

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:   23   71  12   20   7   6   5  13  17  32  13   7   7 16  11                                      

 

 

OCTOBER   2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  7   8  8  6 16                                                                           

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:                                                                                                    

 

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

September 21, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw quiet conditions with AP 6. High latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 7. Medium latitudes saw quiet disturbed conditions with AP 6.

 

Quiet  conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely quiet conditions September 22-24.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels September 22-24 with a moderate chance (30%) of an M-class flare and 5% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 5% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 3 at 12:00 UT on September 21, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 117. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 158 on September 21, 2024.    

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 01:03:25 UT (#240824A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>18.7 was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 13:11:16 UT (#240824B).  No preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 25, 2024 at 15:52:59 UT (#240825A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>17.2 was assigned to this GRB.

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2570       0705   0716      0735   C2.0      (September 21, 2024)   3.3E-03      

2600       1335   1341      1346   C1.6      (September 21, 2024)   9.4E-04  

South Island, New Zealand M 3.5, 3.5, 3.3 13:35-14:02 UT

 

 

2620       2037   2046      2050   C4.4      (September 21, 2024)   2.0E-03  

 

 

AP INDICES

 

DECEMBER 2023

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  56 14  11  9 15 10   5  5  3   4    3  10   8  16  12                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:   14   36  28   12  11   5   4   7   9   4   5   4   3  6   5   4                                  

 

JANUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  10  6  11  6  5  3   3  4  6   7    6   4   3   6   6                                      

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:    6    4   6    8   6   6   9   7  10   6   6   5   8  9   8   6                                  

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                           

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                        

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                      

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                           

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7    8  67  37  21  19                                       

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:   23   71  12   20   7   6   5  13  17  32  13   7   7 16  11                                      

 

 

OCTOBER   2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  7                                                                                        

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:                                                                                                    

 

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

September 20, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw quiet conditions with AP 7. High latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 6. Medium latitudes saw quiet disturbed conditions with AP 6.

 

Unsettled  conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely September 21 with quiet conditions September 22-23.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels September 21-23 with a moderate chance (35%) of an M-class flare and 10% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 10% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 3 at 12:00 UT on September 20, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 113. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 154 on September 20, 2024.    

 

 

An X1.3 class solar flare occurred on September 12, 2024. A strong M5.6 solar flare also occurred

near UT midnight today. This flare occurred near local solar noon in Vanuatu

where a series of strong quakes occurred today. A moderately strong solar flare

of about M3.6 also occurred shortly after 06:00 UT today. It was followed by

a series of moderate earthquakes in the Red Sea of M 4.5-5.0 beginning at 06:20 UT and continuing to local solar noon. SWPC reported these flares with the following parameters:

The X-class flare is likely to promote unusual and strong earthquakes in

the next three days. This enhanced solar flare activity is due to a series

of strong sunspots rotating back to a geo-effective position after their last

arrival with X-flares and strong geomagnetic storms starting near August 12, 2024.

Some of the most notable activity with these August events included a moderate

earthquake in Los Angeles, California and if the area is still sensitive

a recurrence of that activity is possible at this time and in mid-October.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 01:03:25 UT (#240824A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>18.7 was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 13:11:16 UT (#240824B).  No preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 25, 2024 at 15:52:59 UT (#240825A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>17.2 was assigned to this GRB.

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2550       1445   1457      1504   C3.9      (September 20, 2024)   2.6E-03  

Mid-Indian Ridge M 4.5 15:39 UT

 

 

AP INDICES

 

DECEMBER 2023

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  56 14  11  9 15 10   5  5  3   4    3  10   8  16  12                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:   14   36  28   12  11   5   4   7   9   4   5   4   3  6   5   4                                  

 

JANUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  10  6  11  6  5  3   3  4  6   7    6   4   3   6   6                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:    6    4   6    8   6   6   9   7  10   6   6   5   8  9   8   6                                  

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                        

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                      

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                          

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7    8  67  37  21  19                                       

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:   23   71  12   20   7   6   5  13  17  32  13   7   7 16                                          

 

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

September 19, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw active conditions with AP 20. High latitudes saw stormy conditions with AP 39. Medium latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 15.

 

Unsettled  conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely September 21 with quiet conditions September 20 and 22.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels September 20-22 with a moderate chance (55%) of an M-class flare and 15% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 10% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 6 at 15:00 UT on September 19, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 109. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 161 on September 19, 2024.    

 

 

An X1.3 class solar flare occurred on September 12, 2024. A strong M5.6 solar flare also occurred

near UT midnight today. This flare occurred near local solar noon in Vanuatu

where a series of strong quakes occurred today. A moderately strong solar flare

of about M3.6 also occurred shortly after 06:00 UT today. It was followed by

a series of moderate earthquakes in the Red Sea of M 4.5-5.0 beginning at 06:20 UT and continuing to local solar noon. SWPC reported these flares with the following parameters:

The X-class flare is likely to promote unusual and strong earthquakes in

the next three days. This enhanced solar flare activity is due to a series

of strong sunspots rotating back to a geo-effective position after their last

arrival with X-flares and strong geomagnetic storms starting near August 12, 2024.

Some of the most notable activity with these August events included a moderate

earthquake in Los Angeles, California and if the area is still sensitive

a recurrence of that activity is possible at this time and in mid-October.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 01:03:25 UT (#240824A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>18.7 was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 13:11:16 UT (#240824B).  No preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 25, 2024 at 15:52:59 UT (#240825A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>17.2 was assigned to this GRB.

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2430       0759   0804      0811   C2.4      (September 19, 2024)   1.7E-03  

Halmahera M 4.3, M 5.2 07:57 UT

New Guinea M 5.6 08:40 UT

 

 

2460       1517   1527      1535   C2.6      (September 19, 2024)   2.3E-03  

New Zealand M 4.0 15:34 UT

 

2470       2146   21i2      2157   C2.4      (September 19, 2024)   6.4E-04  

Kuril Is. M 4.1 22:05 UT

 

2480       2201   2206      2213   C2.1      (September 19, 2024)   1.4E-03  

Kuril Is. M 4.1 22:05 UT

Kuril Is. M 4.0 22:07 UT

New Guinea M 4.1 22:16 UT

Kermadec Is. M 4.4 22:17 UT

 

 

AP INDICES

 

DECEMBER 2023

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  56 14  11  9 15 10   5  5  3   4    3  10   8  16  12                                      

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:   14   36  28   12  11   5   4   7   9   4   5   4   3  6   5   4                                  

 

JANUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  10  6  11  6  5  3   3  4  6   7    6   4   3   6   6                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:    6    4   6    8   6   6   9   7  10   6   6   5   8  9   8   6                                   

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                        

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                       

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                          

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7    8  67  37  21  19                                       

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:   23   71  12   20   7   6   5  13  17  32  13   7   7 16                                          

 

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

September 18, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw disturbed conditions with AP 12. High latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 11. Medium latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 10.

 

Unsettled  conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely September 19-21.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels September 19-21 with a moderate chance (55%) of an M-class flare and 15% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 10% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 4 at 15:00 UT on September 18, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 106. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 163 on September 18, 2024.    

 

 

An X1.3 class solar flare occurred on September 12, 2024. A strong M5.6 solar flare also occurred

near UT midnight today. This flare occurred near local solar noon in Vanuatu

where a series of strong quakes occurred today. A moderately strong solar flare

of about M3.6 also occurred shortly after 06:00 UT today. It was followed by

a series of moderate earthquakes in the Red Sea of M 4.5-5.0 beginning at 06:20 UT and continuing to local solar noon. SWPC reported these flares with the following parameters:

The X-class flare is likely to promote unusual and strong earthquakes in

the next three days. This enhanced solar flare activity is due to a series

of strong sunspots rotating back to a geo-effective position after their last

arrival with X-flares and strong geomagnetic storms starting near August 12, 2024.

Some of the most notable activity with these August events included a moderate

earthquake in Los Angeles, California and if the area is still sensitive

a recurrence of that activity is possible at this time and in mid-October.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 01:03:25 UT (#240824A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>18.7 was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 13:11:16 UT (#240824B).  No preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 25, 2024 at 15:52:59 UT (#240825A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>17.2 was assigned to this GRB.

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2300       0333   0344      0354   C4.1      (September 18, 2024)   3.8E-03  

Mariana Islands M 4.5 03:46 UT

 

2340       1252   1314      1339   C2.9      (September 18, 2024)   7.6E-03      

Ryukyu Is. M 4.6 13:15 UT

 

2360       1559   1605      1609   C2.1      (September 18, 2024)   1.2E-03  

2370       1635   1643      1650   C3.0      (September 18, 2024)   2.3E-03  

 

AP INDICES

 

DECEMBER 2023

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  56 14  11  9 15 10   5  5  3   4    3  10   8  16  12                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:   14   36  28   12  11   5   4   7   9   4   5   4   3  6   5   4                                  

 

JANUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  10  6  11  6  5  3   3  4  6   7    6   4   3   6   6                                      

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:    6    4   6    8   6   6   9   7  10   6   6   5   8  9   8   6                                  

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                           

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                        

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                      

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                           

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7    8  67  37  21  19                                       

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:   23   71  12   20   7   6   5  13  17  32  13   7   7 16                                          

 

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

September 17, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw severe Storm conditions with AP 71. High latitudes saw severe storm conditions with AP 65. Medium latitudes saw strong storm conditions with AP 39.

 

Unsettled  conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely September 18-20.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels September 18-20 with a moderate chance (55%) of an M-class flare and 15% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 10% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 7 at 02:00 UT on September 17, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 140. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 165 on September 17, 2024.    

 

 

An X1.3 class solar flare occurred on September 12, 2024. A strong M5.6 solar flare also occurred

near UT midnight today. This flare occurred near local solar noon in Vanuatu

where a series of strong quakes occurred today. A moderately strong solar flare

of about M3.6 also occurred shortly after 06:00 UT today. It was followed by

a series of moderate earthquakes in the Red Sea of M 4.5-5.0 beginning at 06:20 UT and continuing to local solar noon. SWPC reported these flares with the following parameters:

The X-class flare is likely to promote unusual and strong earthquakes in

the next three days. This enhanced solar flare activity is due to a series

of strong sunspots rotating back to a geo-effective position after their last

arrival with X-flares and strong geomagnetic storms starting near August 12, 2024.

Some of the most notable activity with these August events included a moderate

earthquake in Los Angeles, California and if the area is still sensitive

a recurrence of that activity is possible at this time and in mid-October.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 01:03:25 UT (#240824A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>18.7 was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 13:11:16 UT (#240824B).  No preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 25, 2024 at 15:52:59 UT (#240825A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>17.2 was assigned to this GRB.

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2190       0624   0640      0650   C4.4      (September 17, 2024)   4.8E-03  

Colorado M 2.1 06:40 UT

Banda Sea M 5.1 06:41 UT

 

2200       1220   1233      1242   C3.9      (September 17, 2024)   3.7E-03  

Oaxaca M 4.1 12:44 UT

 

2240       1852   1909      1921   C3.1      (September 17, 2024)   4.2E-03  

Off Coast of Northern California M 3.0 18:53 UT

 

 

AP INDICES

 

DECEMBER 2023

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  56 14  11  9 15 10   5  5  3   4    3  10   8  16  12                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:   14   36  28   12  11   5   4   7   9   4   5   4   3  6   5   4                                  

 

JANUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  10  6  11  6  5  3   3  4  6   7    6   4   3   6   6                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:    6    4   6    8   6   6   9   7  10   6   6   5   8  9   8   6                                  

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                        

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                      

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                          

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7    8  67  37  21  19                                       

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:   23   71                                                                                           

 

 

 

 

 

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

September 16, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw active conditions with AP 23. High latitudes saw active storm conditions with AP 43. Medium latitudes saw active conditions with AP 19.

 

Major storm conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely September 17 with unsettled conditions September 18-19.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels September 17-19 with a moderate chance (55%) of an M-class flare and 15% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 20% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 7 at 09:00 UT on September 16, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 103. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 170 on September 16, 2024.    

 

 

An X1.3 class solar flare occurred on September 12, 2024. A strong M5.6 solar flare also occurred

near UT midnight today. This flare occurred near local solar noon in Vanuatu

where a series of strong quakes occurred today. A moderately strong solar flare

of about M3.6 also occurred shortly after 06:00 UT today. It was followed by

a series of moderate earthquakes in the Red Sea of M 4.5-5.0 beginning at 06:20 UT and continuing to local solar noon. SWPC reported these flares with the following parameters:

The X-class flare is likely to promote unusual and strong earthquakes in

the next three days. This enhanced solar flare activity is due to a series

of strong sunspots rotating back to a geo-effective position after their last

arrival with X-flares and strong geomagnetic storms starting near August 12, 2024.

Some of the most notable activity with these August events included a moderate

earthquake in Los Angeles, California and if the area is still sensitive

a recurrence of that activity is possible at this time and in mid-October.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 01:03:25 UT (#240824A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>18.7 was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 13:11:16 UT (#240824B).  No preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 25, 2024 at 15:52:59 UT (#240825A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>17.2 was assigned to this GRB.

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2060       0121   0125      0129   C5.9      (September 16, 2024)   1.6E-03  

Chiapas M 4.3 01:23 UT

 

2070       0139   0145      0152   C4.3      (September 16, 2024)   3.0E-03      

Queen Charlotte Is. M 4.7 01:43 UT

Guerrero M 4.0 01:43 UT

 

2120       1330   1351      1410   C5.0      (September 16, 2024)   9.3E-03  

Kyushu M 5.5 14:13 UT

Turkey M 4.0 13:44 UT

 

2170       2329   2357      0020   C9.6      (September 16, 2024)   2.1E-02  

Tarapaca M 4.5 23:41 UT

New Britain M 4.9 00:28 UT

 

 

 

AP INDICES

 

DECEMBER 2023

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  56 14  11  9 15 10   5  5  3   4    3  10   8  16  12                                      

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:   14   36  28   12  11   5   4   7   9   4   5   4   3  6   5   4                                  

 

JANUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  10  6  11  6  5  3   3  4  6   7    6   4   3   6   6                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:    6    4   6    8   6   6   9   7  10   6   6   5   8  9   8   6                                  

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                        

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                       

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                          

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7    8  67  37  21  19                                       

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:   23                                                                                               

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

September 15, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw active conditions with AP 19. High latitudes saw active storm conditions with AP 29. Medium latitudes saw active conditions with AP 16.

 

Severe storm conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely September 16 major storms September 17 and active September 18.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels September 16-18 with a moderate chance (55%) of an M-class flare and 15% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 20% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 5 at 17:00 UT on September 15, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 68. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 173 on September 15, 2024.    

 

 

An X1.3 class solar flare occurred on September 12, 2024. A strong M5.6 solar flare also occurred

near UT midnight today. This flare occurred near local solar noon in Vanuatu

where a series of strong quakes occurred today. A moderately strong solar flare

of about M3.6 also occurred shortly after 06:00 UT today. It was followed by

a series of moderate earthquakes in the Red Sea of M 4.5-5.0 beginning at 06:20 UT and continuing to local solar noon. SWPC reported these flares with the following parameters:

The X-class flare is likely to promote unusual and strong earthquakes in

the next three days. This enhanced solar flare activity is due to a series

of strong sunspots rotating back to a geo-effective position after their last

arrival with X-flares and strong geomagnetic storms starting near August 12, 2024.

Some of the most notable activity with these August events included a moderate

earthquake in Los Angeles, California and if the area is still sensitive

a recurrence of that activity is possible at this time and in mid-October.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 01:03:25 UT (#240824A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>18.7 was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 13:11:16 UT (#240824B).  No preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 25, 2024 at 15:52:59 UT (#240825A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>17.2 was assigned to this GRB.

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

1950       0749   0755      0803   C3.0      (September 15, 2024)   2.3E-03  

Vanuatu M 4.9 08:07 UT

 

1980       0840   0904      0935   C2.3      (September 15, 2024)   6.8E-03  

El Salvador M 3.8, 4.0 09:04 UT

 

1970       1034   1112      1150   C3.7      (September 15, 2024)   1.1E-02  

El Salvador M 4.3 10:55 UT

 

2010       1523   1528      1534   C4.7      (September 15, 2024)   2.2E-03  

Southern Alaska M 4.4 15:17 UT

 

2040       2123   2133      2150   C3.9      (September 15, 2024)   5.0E-03  

Queen Charlotte Is. M 6.5 22:22 UT

Queen Charlotte Is. M 3.9 21:39 UT

South Carolina M 2.6 22:01 UT

 

 

2050       2317   2334      2350   C4.9      (September 15, 2024)   7.3E-03  

Queen Charlotte Is. M 4.3 23:28 UT

 

 

AP INDICES

 

DECEMBER 2023

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  56 14  11  9 15 10   5  5  3   4    3  10   8  16  12                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:   14   36  28   12  11   5   4   7   9   4   5   4   3  6   5   4                                   

 

JANUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  10  6  11  6  5  3   3  4  6   7    6   4   3   6   6                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:    6    4   6    8   6   6   9   7  10   6   6   5   8  9   8   6                                  

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                        

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11        

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31   

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                      

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                 

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                          

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7    8  67  37  21  19                                       

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:                                                                                                     

 

 

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

September 14, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw active conditions with AP 21. High latitudes saw active storm conditions with AP 44. Medium latitudes saw active conditions with AP 22.

 

Severe storm conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely September 16 and active September 15 with major storms September 17.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels September 15-17 with a moderate chance (55%) of an M-class flare and 10% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 10% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 7 at 14:00 UT on September 14, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 127. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 186 on September 13, 2024.    

 

 

An X1.3 class solar flare occurred on September 12, 2024. A strong M5.6 solar flare also occurred

near UT midnight today. This flare occurred near local solar noon in Vanuatu

where a series of strong quakes occurred today. A moderately strong solar flare

of about M3.6 also occurred shortly after 06:00 UT today. It was followed by

a series of moderate earthquakes in the Red Sea of M 4.5-5.0 beginning at 06:20 UT and continuing to local solar noon. SWPC reported these flares with the following parameters:

The X-class flare is likely to promote unusual and strong earthquakes in

the next three days. This enhanced solar flare activity is due to a series

of strong sunspots rotating back to a geo-effective position after their last

arrival with X-flares and strong geomagnetic storms starting near August 12, 2024.

Some of the most notable activity with these August events included a moderate

earthquake in Los Angeles, California and if the area is still sensitive

a recurrence of that activity is possible at this time and in mid-October.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 01:03:25 UT (#240824A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>18.7 was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 13:11:16 UT (#240824B).  No preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 25, 2024 at 15:52:59 UT (#240825A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>17.2 was assigned to this GRB.

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

1690       0048   0058      0107   C4.5      (September 14, 2024)   4.6E-03  

1700       0310   0431      0722   M1.0      (September 14, 2024)   1.1E-01  

Yap M 4.7 03:08 UT

Kermadec Is. M 5.0 03:35 UT

 

1720       0726   0741      0753   M3.0      (September 14, 2024)   3.0E-02  

Taiwan M 4.1 07:36 UT

 

1800       1417   1428      1441   C5.4      (September 14, 2024)   8.0E-03  

Mindanao M 4.0 14:25 UT

South of Alaska M 4.6 14:33 UT

 

1830       1513   1529      1547   X4.5      (September 14, 2024)   5.8E-01  

1880       2349   2351      2355   C2.9      (September 14, 2024)   9.5E-04  

 

 

AP INDICES

 

DECEMBER 2023

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  56 14  11  9 15 10   5  5  3   4    3  10   8  16  12                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:   14   36  28   12  11   5   4   7   9   4   5   4   3  6   5   4                                  

 

JANUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  10  6  11  6  5  3   3  4  6   7    6   4   3   6   6                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:    6    4   6    8   6   6   9   7  10   6   6   5   8  9   8   6                                  

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                        

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                      

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                           

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7    8  67  37  21                                           

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP: 

 

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

September 13, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw severe storm conditions with AP 37. High latitudes saw severe storm conditions with AP 40. Medium latitudes saw severe storm conditions with AP 22.

 

Mimor storm conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely September 14 and 16 and active September 15.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels September 14-16 with a moderate chance (55%) of an M-class flare and 10% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 10% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 5 at 14:00 UT on September 13, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 127. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 186 on September 13, 2024.    

 

 

An X1.3 class solar flare occurred on September 12, 2024. A strong M5.6 solar flare also occurred

near UT midnight today. This flare occurred near local solar noon in Vanuatu

where a series of strong quakes occurred today. A moderately strong solar flare

of about M3.6 also occurred shortly after 06:00 UT today. It was followed by

a series of moderate earthquakes in the Red Sea of M 4.5-5.0 beginning at 06:20 UT and continuing to local solar noon. SWPC reported these flares with the following parameters:

The X-class flare is likely to promote unusual and strong earthquakes in

the next three days. This enhanced solar flare activity is due to a series

of strong sunspots rotating back to a geo-effective position after their last

arrival with X-flares and strong geomagnetic storms starting near August 12, 2024.

Some of the most notable activity with these August events included a moderate

earthquake in Los Angeles, California and if the area is still sensitive

a recurrence of that activity is possible at this time and in mid-October.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 01:03:25 UT (#240824A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>18.7 was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 13:11:16 UT (#240824B).  No preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 25, 2024 at 15:52:59 UT (#240825A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>17.2 was assigned to this GRB.

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

1550       0046   0056      0105   M1.5      (September 13, 2024)   1.6E-02  

1360       0129   0137      0153   M1.6      (September 13, 2024)   2.0E-02  

1560       0233   0239      0244   M1.3      (September 13, 2024)   9.2E-03  

Banda Sea M 4.4 02:42 UT

 

1390       0437   0440      0446   M2.1      (September 13, 2024)   1.3E-02  

1400       0458   0500      0507   M2.3      (September 13, 2024)   1.3E-02  

Taiwan M 4.6 04:59 UT

 

1420       0638   0656      0734   M5.4      (September 13, 2024)   6.9E-02  

Eastern Turkey M 4.1 06:48 UT

Talaud Is. M 5.1 06:33 UT

 

 

1420       0703   0708      0712   M5.2      (September 13, 2024)   3.1E-02  

Java M 4.2 07:03 UT M 4.5 07:12 UT

Guerrero M 4.2 07:03 UT

 

1450       0814   0837      0850   M2.9      (September 13, 2024)   5.5E-02  

1520       1221   1233      1244   C9.6      (September 13, 2024)   1.1E-02  

Xizang M 4.6 12:28 UT

 

1620       1456   1508      1533   M1.2      (September 13, 2024)   2.4E-02  

Central Peru M 4.8 15:15 UT

Owen Fracture Zone M 4.5 15:47 UT

 

1640       1749   1756      1803   M1.4      (September 13, 2024)   9.2E-03  

1650       1851   1903      1924   C9.4      (September 13, 2024)   3.5E-03  

New Britain M 4.7 18:51 UT

 

1660       2041   2049      2055   M1.1      (September 13, 2024)   8.3E-03  

Kuril Is. M 4.4 20:46 UT

 

1670       2123   2129      2138   C4.8      (September 13, 2024)   2.0E-03  

El Salvador M 4.9 21:21 UT

Java M 4.7 22:00 UT

No. Philippines M 4.6 22:01 UT

 

1680       2314   2332      2359   C6.2      (September 13, 2024)   1.4E-02  

Ryukyu  IS. M 4.9 23:59 UT

 

 

AP INDICES

 

DECEMBER 2023

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  56 14  11  9 15 10   5  5  3   4    3  10   8  16  12                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:   14   36  28   12  11   5   4   7   9   4   5   4   3  6   5   4                                  

 

JANUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  10  6  11  6  5  3   3  4  6   7    6   4   3   6   6                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:    6    4   6    8   6   6   9   7  10   6   6   5   8  9   8   6                                  

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                        

 

 

MAY 2024  

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                 

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                      

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                          

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7    8  67  37                                               

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:                                                                                                    

 

 

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

September 12, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw severe storm conditions with AP 67. High latitudes saw severe storm conditions with AP 51. Medium latitudes saw severe storm conditions with AP 36.

 

Major storm conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely September 13 and active September 15 and minor storms September 14.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels September 13-15 with a moderate chance (60%) of an M-class flare and 15% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 10% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 7 at 14:00 UT on September 12, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 179. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 201 on September 12, 2024.    

 

 

An X1.3 class solar flare occurred on September 12, 2024. A strong M5.6 solar flare also occurred

near UT midnight today. This flare occurred near local solar noon in Vanuatu

where a series of strong quakes occurred today. A moderately strong solar flare

of about M3.6 also occurred shortly after 06:00 UT today. It was followed by

a series of moderate earthquakes in the Red Sea of M 4.5-5.0 beginning at 06:20 UT and continuing to local solar noon. SWPC reported these flares with the following parameters:

The X-class flare is likely to promote unusual and strong earthquakes in

the next three days. This enhanced solar flare activity is due to a series

of strong sunspots rotating back to a geo-effective position after their last

arrival with X-flares and strong geomagnetic storms starting near August 12, 2024.

Some of the most notable activity with these August events included a moderate

earthquake in Los Angeles, California and if the area is still sensitive

a recurrence of that activity is possible at this time and in mid-October.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 01:03:25 UT (#240824A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>18.7 was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 13:11:16 UT (#240824B).  No preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 25, 2024 at 15:52:59 UT (#240825A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>17.2 was assigned to this GRB.

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 910       0238   0243      0248   C9.9      (September 12, 2024)   5.2E-03  

Andreanof IS. M 4.1 02:55 UT

 

 930       0301   0305      0309   C7.5      (September 12, 2024)   3.4E-03  

 940       0355   0404      0411   M1.0      (September 12, 2024)   7.8E-03  

Hokkaido M 4.4 04:09 UT

Guerrero M 4.1 04:16 UT

 

 950       0426   0432      0439   M1.2      (September 12, 2024)   7.0E-03  

1010       0515   0522      0526   C6.6      (September 12, 2024)   2.5E-03  

1030       0604   0618      0629   M2.7      (September 12, 2024)   2.4E-02  

Guam M 5.1 06:20 UT

Red Sea M 4.7 06:20 UT

 

1090       0827   0843      0850   C9.7      (September 12, 2024)   1.0E-02      

Colombia M 4.8 08:34 UT

 

1110       0931   0943      0951   X1.3      (September 12, 2024)   7.6E-02      

South Island, NZ M 4.1 09:45 UT

Michoacan M 4.0 09:48 UT

 

1170       1215   1222      1228   C8.2      (September 12, 2024)   6.8E-03  

1220       1313   1321      1332   M1.2      (September 12, 2024)   1.2E-02      

1260       1431   1443      1447   M6.8      (September 12, 2024)   2.1E-02  

Los Angeles, CA M 4.7 14:29 UT

 

1270       1456   1506      1520   M1.6      (September 12, 2024)   2.2E-02      

1320       1823   1831      1837   C7.4      (September 12, 2024)   3.2E-03  

1330       1846   1859      1916   C9.7      (September 12, 2024)   1.5E-02      

Kermadec Is. M 4.7 18:59 UT

New Guinea M 4.6 19:23 UT

 

1340       2104   2111      2118   C8.9      (September 12, 2024)   7.5E-03  

Nicaragua M 4.3 21:07 UT

 

 

AP INDICES

 

DECEMBER 2023

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  56 14  11  9 15 10   5  5  3   4    3  10   8  16  12                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:   14   36  28   12  11   5   4   7   9   4   5   4   3  6   5   4                                  

 

JANUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  10  6  11  6  5  3   3  4  6   7    6   4   3   6   6                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:    6    4   6    8   6   6   9   7  10   6   6   5   8  9   8   6                                  

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                        

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                 

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                      

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                          

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7    8  67                                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:                                                                                                    

 

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

September 11, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw quiet conditions with AP  8. High latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 4. Medium latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 8.

 

Minor storm conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely September 12 with major storms September 13 and active September 14.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels September 12-14 with a moderate chance (55%) of an M-class flare and 15% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 10% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 3 at 21:00 UT on September 11, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 179. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 207 on September 11, 2024.    

 

 

An X1.3 class solar flare occurred on September 12, 2024. A strong M5.6 solar flare also occurred

near UT midnight today. This flare occurred near local solar noon in Vanuatu

where a series of strong quakes occurred today. A moderately strong solar flare

of about M3.6 also occurred shortly after 06:00 UT today. It was followed by

a series of moderate earthquakes in the Red Sea of M 4.5-5.0 beginning at 06:20 UT and continuing to local solar noon. SWPC reported these flares with the following parameters:

The X-class flare is likely to promote unusual and strong earthquakes in

the next three days. This enhanced solar flare activity is due to a series

of strong sunspots rotating back to a geo-effective position after their last

arrival with X-flares and strong geomagnetic storms starting near August 12, 2024.

Some of the most notable activity with these August events included a moderate

earthquake in Los Angeles, California and if the area is still sensitive

a recurrence of that activity is possible at this time and in mid-October.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 01:03:25 UT (#240824A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>18.7 was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 13:11:16 UT (#240824B).  No preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 25, 2024 at 15:52:59 UT (#240825A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>17.2 was assigned to this GRB.

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 700       0628   0634      0641   C5.6      (September 11, 2024)   3.9E-03  

 710       0822   0829      0837   C4.5      (September 11, 2024)   3.7E-03      

 730       0930   0945      0951   C4.5      (September 11, 2024)   1.4E-03  

 750       0951   0958      1005   C5.9      (September 11, 2024)   4.7E-03  

 740       1106   1117      1126   C4.6      (September 11, 2024)   4.7E-03      

 780       1227   1236      1247   M1.8      (September 11, 2024)   1.6E-03  

 810       1509   1518      1524   M1.4      (September 11, 2024)   3.4E-03  

 960       1524   1530      1716   M1.8      (September 11, 2024)   2.6E-03  

Bismarck Sea M 6.3 16:48 UT

Hokkaido M 4.4 16:04 UT

Kermadec M 4.6 16:12 UT

 

 

 830       1716   1726      1732   M1.6      (September 11, 2024)   2.7E-03  

Mariana Is. M 4.6 17:38 UT

 

 840       1744   1752      1800   M2.0      (September 11, 2024)   1.4E-02  

Vanuatu M 5.8 18:18 UT

Sumbawa M 4.6 18:01 UT

 

 

 870       1942   1949      1953   C6.7      (September 11, 2024)   3.9E-03  

Vanuatu M 4.9, 5.8 19:52 UT

 

 890       2349   0012      0032   M5.0      (September 11, 2024)   7.3E-02  

Puerto Rico M 4.4 00:14 UT

Sulawesi M 4.3 00:24 UT

 

 

 

1110       0931   0943      0951   X1.3       (September 12, 2024)   7.6E-02      

 

AP INDICES

 

DECEMBER 2023

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  56 14  11  9 15 10   5  5  3   4    3  10   8  16  12                                      

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:   14   36  28   12  11   5   4   7   9   4   5   4   3  6   5   4                                  

 

JANUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  10  6  11  6  5  3   3  4  6   7    6   4   3   6   6                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:    6    4   6    8   6   6   9   7  10   6   6   5   8  9   8   6                                  

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                        

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                      

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                 

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                          

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7                                                            

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:                                                                                                     

 

 

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

September 10, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw quiet conditions with AP  7. High latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 5. Medium latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 7.

 

Minor storm conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely September 11-12 with major storms September 13.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels September 11-13 with a moderate chance (55%) of an M-class flare and 15% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 10% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 3 at 22:00 UT on September 10, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 147. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 205 on September 10, 2024.    

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 01:03:25 UT (#240824A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>18.7 was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 13:11:16 UT (#240824B).  No preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 25, 2024 at 15:52:59 UT (#240825A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>17.2 was assigned to this GRB.

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 490       0536   0546      0556   C6.1      (September 9, 2024)   6.1E-03  

Mid-Indian Ridge M 5.0 06:08 UT

 

 520       1057   1119      1145   C5.6      (September 9, 2024)   1.3E-02      

Nevada M 2.9 11:00 UT

 

 560       1534   1547      1602   M1.6      (September 9, 2024)   1.8E-02      

Sulawesi M 3.8 15:33 UT

Tarapaca M 4.2 16:02 UT

 

 570       1753   1801      1808   C3.9      (September 9, 2024)   3.1E-03  

 590       2048   2058      2105   C4.3      (September 9, 2024)   4.0E-03  

Talaud Is. M 5.4 21:01 UT

 

 600       2338   2350      2357   M1.0      (September 9, 2024)   7.1E-03  

 

AP INDICES

 

DECEMBER 2023

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  56 14  11  9 15 10   5  5  3   4    3  10   8  16  12                                      

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:   14   36  28   12  11   5   4   7   9   4   5   4   3  6   5   4                                  

 

JANUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  10  6  11  6  5  3   3  4  6   7    6   4   3   6   6                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:    6    4   6    8   6   6   9   7  10   6   6   5   8  9   8   6                                  

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                        

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                       

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                          

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7                                                            

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:                                                                                                    

 

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

September 9, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw quiet conditions with AP  9. High latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 6. Medium latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 9.

 

Major storm conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely September 10 and minor storms September 11-12.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels September 10-12 with a moderate chance (55%) of an M-class flare and 15% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 10% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 3 at 22:00 UT on September 9, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 213. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 215 on September 9, 2024.    

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 01:03:25 UT (#240824A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>18.7 was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 13:11:16 UT (#240824B).  No preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 25, 2024 at 15:52:59 UT (#240825A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>17.2 was assigned to this GRB.

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 180       0057   0332      0502   M1.0      (September 9, 2024)   9.5E-02  

 170       0540   0545      0558   M1.8      (September 9, 2024)   1.9E-02  

Mid Indian Ridge M 5.0 06:08 UT

 

 190       0841   0850      0902   M1.5      (September 9, 2024)   1.8E-02  

New Zealand M 4.8 08:50 UT

 

 210       0957   1027      1048   M1.7      (September 9, 2024)   4.3E-02  

 230       1211   1217      1224   M1.0      (September 9, 2024)   7.3E-03  

 290       1658   1708      1716   M3.4      (September 9, 2024)   2.4E-02  

 380       2347   0028      0103   M1.2      (September 9, 2024)   5.1E-02  

 

AP INDICES

 

DECEMBER 2023

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  56 14  11  9 15 10   5  5  3   4    3  10   8  16  12                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:   14   36  28   12  11   5   4   7   9   4   5   4   3  6   5   4                                  

 

JANUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  10  6  11  6  5  3   3  4  6   7    6   4   3   6   6                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:    6    4   6    8   6   6   9   7  10   6   6   5   8  9   8   6                                  

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                         

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                      

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                          

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9                                                                 

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:                                                                                                    

 

EXTERNAL FIELDS/EFFECTS

September 8, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw quiet conditions with AP  9. High latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 5. Medium latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 19.

 

Quiet to unsettled conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely  September 9 with major storms September 10 and minor storms September 11.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels September 9-11 with a moderate chance (55%) of an M-class flare and 15% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 10% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 6 at 21:00 UT on September 8, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 176. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 228 on September 8, 2024.    

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 01:03:25 UT (#240824A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>18.7 was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 13:11:16 UT (#240824B).  No preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 25, 2024 at 15:52:59 UT (#240825A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>17.2 was assigned to this GRB.

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

  70       0358   0431      0449   C3.5      (September 8, 2024)   6.1E-03      

Western Iran M 4.5 04:02 UT

Kermadec Is. M 5.2 04:22 UT

Solomon Is. M 5.5 05:01 UT

 

  80       1507   1530      1556   M1.5      (September 8, 2024)   3.1E-02  

Maule, Chile M 4.5 15:46 UT

 

 110       2214   2218      2224   C4.7      (September 8, 2024)   2.7E-03  

Oaxaca M 3.9 22:15 UT

Baja California M 3.8 22:23 UT

New Mexico M 2.6 22:15 UT

 

 120       2301   2313      2327   C5.0      (September 8, 2024)   7.1E-03  

New Guinea M 5.2 23:15 UT

Virgin Islands M 3.4 23:03 UT

 

 

 

AP INDICES

 

DECEMBER 2023

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  56 14  11  9 15 10   5  5  3   4    3  10   8  16  12                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:   14   36  28   12  11   5   4   7   9   4   5   4   3  6   5   4                                  

 

JANUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  10  6  11  6  5  3   3  4  6   7    6   4   3   6   6                                      

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:    6    4   6    8   6   6   9   7  10   6   6   5   8  9   8   6                                  

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                        

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                 

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                      

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                          

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9                                                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:                                                                                                    

 

 

EXTERNAL FIELDS/EFFECTS

September 7, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw quiet conditions with AP  8. High latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 7. Medium latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 8.

 

Quiet to unsettled conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely  September 8-9 with major storms September 10.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels September 8-10 with a moderate chance (65%) of an M-class flare and 15% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 10% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 3 at 15:00 UT on September 7, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 179. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 222 on September 7, 2024.    

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 01:03:25 UT (#240824A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>18.7 was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 24, 2024 at 13:11:16 UT (#240824B).  No preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on August 25, 2024 at 15:52:59 UT (#240825A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>17.2 was assigned to this GRB.

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

9770       0040   0046      0051   C5.1      (September 7, 2024)   3.1E-03  

9790       0317   0327      0339   C5.9      (September 7, 2024)   6.9E-03  

9820       0617   0749      0917   M1.6      (September 7, 2024)   1.2E-01  

Kermadec Is. M 4.2 06:45 UT

Central Turkey M 5.0 06:31 UT

Channel Is, California M 2.2 06:14 UT

 

9910       1405   1410      1425   C4.9      (September 7, 2024)   5.6E-03  

Northern California M 4.3 14:30 UT

 

9920       1605   1615      1629   C5.0      (September 7, 2024)   6.7E-03  

Volcano Is, Japan M 4.7 16:12 UT

 

9960       1739   1742      1746   C4.4      (September 7, 2024)   1.7E-03  

Los Angeles, California M 3.9 17:34 UT

Hindu Kush M 4.0 17:34 UT

 

9990       2112   2119      2126   C7.2      (September 7, 2024)   5.0E-03  

Kodiak, Alaska M 4.0 21:14 UT

 

  20       2220   2225      2231   C3.3      (September 7, 2024)   2.1E-03  

Tonga M 6.0 22:39 UT

Vancouver M 3.5 22:30 UT

 

 

AP INDICES

 

DECEMBER 2023

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  56 14  11  9 15 10   5  5  3   4    3  10   8  16  12                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:   14   36  28   12  11   5   4   7   9   4   5   4   3  6   5   4                                   

 

JANUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  10  6  11  6  5  3   3  4  6   7    6   4   3   6   6                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:    6    4   6    8   6   6   9   7  10   6   6   5   8  9   8   6                                  

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                        

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11        

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                      

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                 

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                          

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8                                                                      

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP: