EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

December 7, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw quiet conditions with AP  5. High latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 2. Medium latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 4.

 

Unsettled conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely December 7-9.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels December 8-10, 2024 a moderate chance (30%) of an M-class flare and 5% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 5% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 4 at 10:00 UT on December 7, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 91. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 193 on December  7, 2024.    

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

4790       0010   0017      0024   C4.6      (December 7, 2024)   3.1E-03  

Java M 4.9 00:2 UT

 

4820       0136   0145      0150   C3.2      (December 7, 2024)   2.0E-03  

4840       0223   0230      0234   C2.7      (December 7, 2024)   1.5E-03  

4870       0438   0446      0458   C3.1      (December 7, 2024)   3.3E-03  

4880       0530   0541      0549   C3.4      (December 7, 2024)   3.5E-03  

4900       0701   0708      0713   C2.7      (December 7, 2024)   1.7E-03  

4920       0742   0749      0753   C4.8      (December 7, 2024)   2.0E-03  

So Sumatra M 4.9 07:46 UT

Taiwan M 4.9 07:48 UT

 

4930       0755   0800      0806   C3.4      (December 7, 2024)   1.1E-03  

Seram M 4.4 07:56 UT

 

4940       0850   0859      0912   C7.8      (December 7, 2024)   6.9E-03  

Nicaragua M 4.9 09:06 UT

 

4960       1026   1030      1036   C7.0      (December 7, 2024)   2.8E-03  

Andreanof M 4.2 10:33 UT

South Carolina M 2.0 10:25 UT

 

4970       1040   1053      1118   C5.3      (December 7, 2024)   7.6E-04  

4990       1300   1308      1315   M2.3      (December 7, 2024)   9.9E-04  

Central Peru M 4.7 13:24 UT

 

5020       1456   1502      1506   C2.6      (December 7, 2024)   1.5E-03  

5040       1528   1535      1541   C3.6      (December 7, 2024)   2.5E-03  

5050       1717   1721      1726   C2.3      (December 7, 2024)   1.2E-03  

So. Mid-Atantic M 5.8 17:31 UT

 

5070       1805   1815      1820   C5.5      (December 7, 2024)   1.7E-03  

5080       1820   1826      1832   C6.4      (December 7, 2024)   4.5E-03  

5100       2034   2038      2042   C2.4      (December 7, 2024)   1.1E-03  

Loyalty Is. M 4.6 21:02 UT

 

5150       2153   2215      2226   M3.2      (December 7, 2024)   3.1E-02  

Xizang M 4.5 22:07 UT

Molucca Sea M 4.2 22:10 UT

Honshu M 4.5 22:39 UT

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 28, 2024 at 16:13:34 UT (#241128A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>19.0 was assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 27, 2024 at 21:42:16 UT (#241127A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V=19.7 was assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 15, 2024 at 13:18:25 UT (#241115A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 13, 2024 at 07:48:13 UT (#241113A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V=14.97 was assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 5, 2024 at 16:06:04 UT (#241105A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 1, 2024 at 05:41:45 UT (#241101A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.

 

 

AP INDICES

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                      

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                       

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                        

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                      

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                          

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7    8  67  37  21  19                                       

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:   23   71  12   20   7   6   5  13  17  32  13   7   7 16  11                                       

 

 

OCTOBER   2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  7   8  8  6 16  55 58 19  96  116  20   5   8  15                                      

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31

 

AP:   15    9  14   23   7   5   8   9  13   3  14  10  17 12  15   9                                                                    

 

NOVEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   7 13  11 14 11 10   9 11 32  25   10   5   7  11  13                                               

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30 

 

AP:    8    8   4    9   9   8  12   8   6  11   7   5   4  8  11                                                                            

 

 

DECEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   7  6  13  7  5  5   6  7                                                                           

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30 31

 

AP:                                                                                                                                         

 

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

December 6, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw quiet conditions with AP  5. High latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 2. Medium latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 4.

 

Unsettled conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely December 7-9.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels December 6-8, 2024 a moderate chance (30%) of an M-class flare and 5% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 5% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 2 at 07:00 UT on December 6, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 103. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 178 on December  6, 2024.    

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

4540       0057   0106      0112   C3.5      (December 6, 2024)   2.6E-03  

Honshu M 4.4 01:03  UT

 

4570       0209   0216      0230   C2.9      (December 6, 2024)   3.2E-03  

4610       0436   0443      0450   C2.6      (December 6, 2024)   2.1E-03  

4620       0459   0510      0529   C3.8      (December 6, 2024)   6.8E-03  

New Guinea M 4.0 05:13 UT

Kyushu M 4.8 05:26 UT

 

4640       0642   0658      0709   C8.0      (December 6, 2024)   8.5E-03  

No. California M 4.2 07:02 UT

 

4660       0756   0805      0812   C4.8      (December 6, 2024)   1.2E-03  

4670       0906   0920      0942   M1.2      (December 6, 2024)   1.8E-02  

4740       1301   1328      1349   C3.0      (December 6, 2024)   8.3E-03  

4680       1349   1416      1430   C3.2      (December 6, 2024)   9.2E-04  

East Pacific Rise M 4.9 13:57 UT

 

4690       1454   1459      1507   C5.9      (December 6, 2024)   3.6E-03  

No. California M 4.2 14:58 UT

 

4700       1552   1605      1619   C5.1      (December 6, 2024)   6.3E-03  

No. California M 4.0 15:51 UT

 

4710       1743   1754      1758   C3.9      (December 6, 2024)   2.5E-03   

Haiti M 4.1 17:42 UT

 

4750       2108   2115      2119   C3.4      (December 6, 2024)   2.0E-03  

4760       2212   2218      2227   C2.8      (December 6, 2024)   1.6E-03  

4770       2252   2256      2300   C6.8      (December 6, 2024)   2.4E-03  

Ryukyu Is. M 4.5 22:52 UT

 

4780       2323   2329      2335   C4.8      (December 6, 2024)   3.0E-03  

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 28, 2024 at 16:13:34 UT (#241128A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>19.0 was assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 27, 2024 at 21:42:16 UT (#241127A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V=19.7 was assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 15, 2024 at 13:18:25 UT (#241115A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 13, 2024 at 07:48:13 UT (#241113A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V=14.97 was assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 5, 2024 at 16:06:04 UT (#241105A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 1, 2024 at 05:41:45 UT (#241101A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.

 

 

AP INDICES

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                        

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                       

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                          

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7    8  67  37  21  19                                       

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:   23   71  12   20   7   6   5  13  17  32  13   7   7 16  11                                      

 

 

OCTOBER   2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  7   8  8  6 16  55 58 19  96  116  20   5   8  15                                      

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31

 

AP:   15    9  14   23   7   5   8   9  13   3  14  10  17 12  15   9                                                                    

 

NOVEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   7 13  11 14 11 10   9 11 32  25   10   5   7  11  13                                               

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30 

 

AP:    8    8   4    9   9   8  12   8   6  11   7   5   4  8  11                                                                            

 

 

DECEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   7  6  13  7  5  5   6  7                                                                           

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30 31

 

AP:                                                                                                                                         

 

 

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

December 5, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw quiet conditions with AP  5. High latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 3. Medium latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 5.

 

Unsettled conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely December 6-8.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels December 6-8, 2024 a moderate chance (30%) of an M-class flare and 5% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 5% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 3 at 10:00 UT on December 5, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 101. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 175 on December  5, 2024.    

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

4290       0008   0016      0022   C5.3      (December 5, 2024)   3.4E-03  

4330       0623   0631      0638   C2.8      (December 5, 2024)   8.3E-04  

Pakistan M 5.2 06:22 UT

 

4340       0638   0641      0645   C3.3      (December 5, 2024)   1.3E-03  

4350       0656   0709      0733   M1.0      (December 5, 2024)   1.6E-02  

4370       0812   0820      0824   M1.1      (December 5, 2024)   4.2E-03  

Northern California M 7.0 18:44 UT (antipodal local solar midnight 08:20 UT)

 

4400       1032   1040      1046   M2.5      (December 5, 2024)   1.1E-02  

Mindanao M 4.4 10:30 UT

Tarapaca M 4.5 10:41 UT

 

4420       1206   1212      1221   C2.7      (December 5, 2024)   2.2E-03  

Buryatiya, Russia M 4.6 12:08 UT

Fiji M 4.4 12:26 UT

 

4430       1250   1256      1300   C2.6      (December 5, 2024)   1.4E-03  

Izu Is. M 4.2 12:59 UT

 

4440       1334   1347      1403   C3.6      (December 5, 2024)   5.6E-03  

Argentina M 5.2 13:39 UT

Iran M 4.2 13:42 UT; M 5.0 13:25 UT

 

 

4450       1455   1524      1536   C4.7      (December 5, 2024)   8.8E-03  

4470       1917   1930      1935   C3.8      (December 5, 2024)   7.0E-04  

East Pacific Rise M 5.1 19:41 UT

Northern California M 7.0 18:44 UT

 

4490       2037   2046      2053   C2.2      (December 5, 2024)   1.9E-03  

Jalisco M 3.6 20:37 UT

Northern California M 3.4 20:39 UT

Cyprus M 4.2 20:53 UT

 

 

4500       2108   2115      2122   C6.2      (December 5, 2024)   3.6E-03  

Northern California M 3.4 21:08 UT

 

4510       2144   2149      2153   C3.2      (December 5, 2024)   1.7E-03  

Mongolia M 3.8 21:58 UT

 

4520       2211   2218      2222   C3.4      (December 5, 2024)   1.8E-03  

Sulawesi M 4.2 22:17 UT

 

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 15, 2024 at 13:18:25 UT (#241115A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 13, 2024 at 07:48:13 UT (#241113A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V=14.97 was assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 5, 2024 at 16:06:04 UT (#241105A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 1, 2024 at 05:41:45 UT (#241101A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 30, 2024 at 18:34:20 UT (#241030B).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 30, 2024 at 05:48:03 UT (#241030A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V=13.71 was assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 26, 2024 at 22:42:32 UT (#241026A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 25, 2024 at 01:36:50 UT (#241025A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 10, 2024 at 10:05:14 UT (#241010A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 6, 2024 at 21:51:58 UT (#241006A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB of V>17.4.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 2, 2024 at 00:50:22 UT (#241002A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB of V>19.8. The last GRB with UVOT of equal or greater value occurred on November 11, 2023 with UVOT V=19.85.

 

 

AP INDICES

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                      

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                       

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                        

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                      

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                 

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                          

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7    8  67  37  21  19                                       

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:   23   71  12   20   7   6   5  13  17  32  13   7   7 16  11                                      

 

 

OCTOBER   2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  7   8  8  6 16  55 58 19  96  116  20   5   8  15                                      

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31

 

AP:   15    9  14   23   7   5   8   9  13   3  14  10  17 12  15   9                                                                    

 

NOVEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   7 13  11 14 11 10   9 11 32  25   10   5   7  11  13                                               

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30 

 

AP:    8    8   4    9   9   8  12   8   6  11   7   5   4  8  11                                                                            

 

 

DECEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   7  6  13  7                                                                                        

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30 31

 

AP:                                                                                                                                         

 

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

November 30, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw disturbed conditions with AP  11. High latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 5. Medium latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 9.

 

Quiet  conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely October 31 with unsettled  conditions November 1-2.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels December 1-3, 2024 a moderate chance (40%) of an M-class flare and 5% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 10% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 4 at 01:00 UT on November 30, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 103. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 204 on November 30, 2024.    

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

3130       0119   0129      0136   C3.5      (November 30, 2024)   2.9E-03  

Fiji Is. M 4.5 01:19 UT

 

3160       0556   0600      0604   C5.6      (November 30, 2024)   1.9E-03  

Puerto Rico M 3.6 05:56 UT

 

3170       0726   0733      0742   C3.5      (November 30, 2024)   2.9E-03  

3180       0753   0758      0803   C2.6      (November 30, 2024)   1.6E-03  

Kermadec Is. M 4.6 07:52 UT

 

3200       0837   0851      0859   C4.3      (November 30, 2024)   5.3E-03  

Ryukyu Is. M 5.7 08:46 UT; M 4.8 08:34 UT

Mindanao M 4.0 08:46 UT

 

 

3210       0859   0906      0912   C9.3      (November 30, 2024)   5.9E-03      

Ryukyu Is. M 5.2 09:07 UT

Honshu M 4.3 09:06 UT

 

 

3230       1034   1045      1051   C5.3      (November 30, 2024)   3.5E-03      

Mariana Islands M 5.1 10:34 UT

Guatemala M 4.4 10:53 UT

 

3270       1444   1453      1505   C2.1      (November 30, 2024)   1.0E-03  

Tonga M 4.6 14:48 UT

Gulf of California M 4.2 15:02 UT

Banda M 4.4 15:06 UT

Tonga M 4.7 15:06 UT

Revilla Gigedo Islands, Mexico M 5.4 15:08 UT

 

3280       1517   1524      1532   C3.0      (November 30, 2024)   1.1E-03  

3300       1609   1618      1625   C3.2      (November 30, 2024)   2.5E-03  

Mindanao M 4.6 16:10 UT

This earthquake occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and was probably

promoted by SFE associated with this flare. SFE is strongest near local solar noon and midnight.

It may also have been promoted by stresses associated with the new moon of

December 1 as noted in previous issues of this summary.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 15, 2024 at 13:18:25 UT (#241115A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 13, 2024 at 07:48:13 UT (#241113A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V=14.97 was assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 5, 2024 at 16:06:04 UT (#241105A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on November 1, 2024 at 05:41:45 UT (#241101A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 30, 2024 at 18:34:20 UT (#241030B).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 30, 2024 at 05:48:03 UT (#241030A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V=13.71 was assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 26, 2024 at 22:42:32 UT (#241026A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 25, 2024 at 01:36:50 UT (#241025A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 10, 2024 at 10:05:14 UT (#241010A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 6, 2024 at 21:51:58 UT (#241006A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB of V>17.4.

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 2, 2024 at 00:50:22 UT (#241002A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB of V>19.8. The last GRB with UVOT of equal or greater value occurred on November 11, 2023 with UVOT V=19.85.

 

 

AP INDICES

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                        

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                      

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                           

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7    8  67  37  21  19                                       

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:   23   71  12   20   7   6   5  13  17  32  13   7   7 16  11                                      

 

 

OCTOBER   2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  7   8  8  6 16  55 58 19  96  116  20   5   8  15                                       

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31

 

AP:   15    9  14   23   7   5   8   9  13   3  14  10  17 12  15   9                                                                    

 

NOVEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   7 13  11 14 11 10   9 11 32  25   10   5   7  11  13                                               

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30 

 

AP:    8    8   4    9   9   8  12   8   6  11   7   5   4  8  11                                                                           

 

 

DECEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   7  6  13  7                                                                                         

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30 31

 

AP:                                                                                                                                          

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

November 1, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw quiet conditions with AP  7. High latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 14. Medium latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 6.

 

Unsettled conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely November 2 with active conditions November 3-4.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels November 2-4 with a moderate chance (75%) of an M-class flare and 35% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 30% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 5 at 17:00 UT on November 1, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 210. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 256 on November 1, 2024.    

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

SOLAR FLARES OF C-, M- or X-CLASS

 

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

3990       0205   0216      0220   M1.3      (November 1, 2024)   6.8E-03  

Tajikistan M 4.2 02:39 UT

Guerrero M 4.6 02:49 UT

 

 

4060       0804   0810      0820   C5.4      (November 1, 2024)   4.6E-03  

Volcano Is. M 4.7 08:24 UT

Java M 4.6 08:33 UT

 

4120       0946   1014      1108   M1.0      (November 1, 2024)   4.3E-02  

4200       1219   1227      1239   C8.4      (November 1, 2024)   1.0E-02  

4210       1239   1252      1300   M1.3      (November 1, 2024)   1.4E-02  

Tajikistan M 4.2 12:41 UT

 

4290       1624   1633      1641   C6.3      (November 1, 2024)   5.5E-03  

4300       1719   1730      1738   C6.1      (November 1, 2024)   6.1E-03  

4360       1957   2011      2036   C4.6      (November 1, 2024)   9.8E-03  

Hindu Kush M 4.8 20:01 UT

 

 

 

AP INDICES

 

JANUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  10  6  11  6  5  3   3  4  6   7    6   4   3   6   6                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:    6    4   6    8   6   6   9   7  10   6   6   5   8  9   8   6                                  

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                           

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                        

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024  

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                      

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                           

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7    8  67  37  21  19                                       

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:   23   71  12   20   7   6   5  13  17  32  13   7   7 16  11                                      

 

 

OCTOBER   2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  7   8  8  6 16  55 58 19  96  116  20   5   8  15                                       

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31

 

AP:   15    9  14   23   7   5   8   9  13   3  14  10  17 12  15   9                                                                    

 

NOVEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   7 13  11 14 11 10   9 11 32  25   10   5   7  11  13                                               

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30 

 

AP:    8    8   4    9   9   8  12   8   7  11   7   5                                                                                   

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

October 31, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw disturbed conditions with AP  15. High latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 18. Medium latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 10.

 

Quiet  conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely October 31 with unsettled  conditions November 1-2.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels October 31-November 2 with a moderate chance (75%) of an M-class flare and 25% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 99% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 5 at 18:00 UT on October 30, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 200. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 270 on October 30, 2024.    

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

3320       0910   1017      1107   C7.1      (October 30, 2024)   3.9E-02  

3330       1157   1204      1215   C4.6      (October 30, 2024)   4.7E-03  

New Britain M 6.0 12:18 UT

 

3370       1546   1550      1556   C5.0      (October 30, 2024)   2.9E-03  

3380       1852   1855      1911   C5.0      (October 30, 2024)   5.4E-03  

Santa Crus Is. M 4.5 18:49 UT

 

3390       2014   2022      2029   C5.4      (October 30, 2024)   5.5E-03  

Fox Is. M 3.5 20:24 UT

Fox Is. M 3.7 20:24 UT

Coast of Oregon M 6.0 20:15 UT

 

3410       2029   2053      2114   M7.2      (October 30, 2024)   1.1E-01  

Fox Is. M 3.5 20:24 UT

Fox Is. M 3.7 20:24 UT

Coast of Oregon M 6.0 20:15 UT

Northern Philippines M 4.7 21:39 UT

Idaho M 2.5 21:14 UT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

October 30, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw disturbed conditions with AP  15. High latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 18. Medium latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 10.

 

Quiet  conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely October 31 with unsettled  conditions November 1-2.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels October 31-November 2 with a moderate chance (75%) of an M-class flare and 25% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 99% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 5 at 18:00 UT on October 30, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 200. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 270 on October 30, 2024.    

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

3320       0910   1017      1107   C7.1      (October 30, 2024)   3.9E-02  

3330       1157   1204      1215   C4.6      (October 30, 2024)   4.7E-03  

New Britain M 6.0 12:18 UT

 

3370       1546   1550      1556   C5.0      (October 30, 2024)   2.9E-03  

3380       1852   1855      1911   C5.0      (October 30, 2024)   5.4E-03  

Santa Crus Is. M 4.5 18:49 UT

 

3390       2014   2022      2029   C5.4      (October 30, 2024)   5.5E-03  

Fox Is. M 3.5 20:24 UT

Fox Is. M 3.7 20:24 UT

Coast of Oregon M 6.0 20:15 UT

 

3410       2029   2053      2114   M7.2      (October 30, 2024)   1.1E-01  

Fox Is. M 3.5 20:24 UT

Fox Is. M 3.7 20:24 UT

Coast of Oregon M 6.0 20:15 UT

Northern Philippines M 4.7 21:39 UT

Idaho M 2.5 21:14 UT

 

 

 

 

AP INDICES

 

JANUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  10  6  11  6  5  3   3  4  6   7    6   4   3   6   6                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:    6    4   6    8   6   6   9   7  10   6   6   5   8  9   8   6                                  

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                        

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                 

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                      

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                          

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7    8  67  37  21  19                                       

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:   23   71  12   20   7   6   5  13  17  32  13   7   7 16  11                                      

 

 

OCTOBER   2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  7   8  8  6 16  55 58 19  96  116  20   5   8  15                                      

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31

 

AP:   15    9  14   23   7   5   8   9  13   3  14  10  17 12  15   9                                                                     

 

NOVEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   7 13  11 14 11 10   9 11 32  25   10   5   7  11  13                                               

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30 

 

AP:    8    8   4                                                                                                                        

 

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

October 29, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw disturbed conditions with AP 17. High latitudes saw minor storm conditions with AP 30. Medium latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 11.

 

Active conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely October 29 with unsettled conditions October 30 and quiet October 31.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels October 29-31 with a moderate chance (75%) of an M-class flare and 30% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 99% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 6 at 17:00 UT on October 28, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 189. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 255 on October 28, 2024.    

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2840       0023   0030      0046   C5.0      (October 28, 2024)   6.0E-03  

2860       0256   0302      0315   C3.8      (October 28, 2024)   4.1E-03  

Costa Rica M 4.7 03:01 UT

 

2870       0359   0409      0416   M1.3      (October 28, 2024)   1.0E-02  

Colombia M 4.4 04:03 UT

 

2890       0611   0615      0619   C3.8      (October 28, 2024)   1.2E-03  

2910       0643   0701      0724   C8.0      (October 28, 2024)   1.2E-03  

Northern Colombia M 4.5 07:08 UT

Chiapas M 4.0 07:23 UT

 

2930       0809   0813      0817   C3.9      (October 28, 2024)   1.8E-03  

New Ireland M 4.7 08:33 UT

 

2960       0901   0913      0925   C7.1      (October 28, 2024)   8.1E-03  

Santa Catalina CA, M 2.0 09:26 UT

Kyushu M 4.0 09:25 UT

 

2970       1003   1007      1011   C4.5      (October 28, 2024)   2.0E-03  

Alberta M 3.0 10:12 UT

 

3010       1441   1444      1448   M1.2      (October 28, 2024)   4.2E-03  

3020       1500   1508      1515   C9.4      (October 28, 2024)   5.2E-03  

Papua New Guinea M 4.2 15:17 UT

 

3040       1613   1628      1644   M4.2      (October 28, 2024)   2.2E-03  

3060       1824   1832      1840   C7.3      (October 28, 2024)   6.2E-03  

3080       2137   2143      2152   C5.2      (October 28, 2024)   4.3E-03  

Ecuador M 3.6 21:50 UT

New South Wales M 1.6 21:47 UT

 

3110       2201   2207      2219   C7.6      (October 28, 2024)   8.3E-03  

3120       2219   2229      2234   C7.6      (October 28, 2024)   6.7E-03  

Fiji M 4.8 22:33 UT

 

 

AP INDICES

 

JANUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  10  6  11  6  5  3   3  4  6   7    6   4   3   6   6                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:    6    4   6    8   6   6   9   7  10   6   6   5   8  9   8   6                                  

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                        

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                      

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                          

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7    8  67  37  21  19                                       

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:   23   71  12   20   7   6   5  13  17  32  13   7   7 16  11                                      

 

 

OCTOBER   2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  7   8  8  6 16  55 58 19  96  116  20   5   8  15                                       

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31

 

AP:   15    9  14   23   7   5   8   9  13   3  14  10  17 12  15   9                                                                    

 

NOVEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   7 13  11 14 11 10   9 11 32  25   10   5   7  11  13                                               

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30 

 

AP:    8    8   4                                                                                                                         

 

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

October 28, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw disturbed conditions with AP 17. High latitudes saw minor storm conditions with AP 30. Medium latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 11.

 

Active conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely October 29 with unsettled conditions October 30 and quiet October 31.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels October 29-31 with a moderate chance (75%) of an M-class flare and 30% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 99% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 6 at 17:00 UT on October 28, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 189. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 255 on October 28, 2024.    

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2840       0023   0030      0046   C5.0      (October 28, 2024)   6.0E-03  

2860       0256   0302      0315   C3.8      (October 28, 2024)   4.1E-03  

Costa Rica M 4.7 03:01 UT

 

2870       0359   0409      0416   M1.3      (October 28, 2024)   1.0E-02  

Colombia M 4.4 04:03 UT

 

2890       0611   0615      0619   C3.8      (October 28, 2024)   1.2E-03  

2910       0643   0701      0724   C8.0      (October 28, 2024)   1.2E-03  

Northern Colombia M 4.5 07:08 UT

Chiapas M 4.0 07:23 UT

 

2930       0809   0813      0817   C3.9      (October 28, 2024)   1.8E-03  

New Ireland M 4.7 08:33 UT

 

2960       0901   0913      0925   C7.1      (October 28, 2024)   8.1E-03  

Santa Catalina CA, M 2.0 09:26 UT

Kyushu M 4.0 09:25 UT

 

2970       1003   1007      1011   C4.5      (October 28, 2024)   2.0E-03   

Alberta M 3.0 10:12 UT

 

3010       1441   1444      1448   M1.2      (October 28, 2024)   4.2E-03  

3020       1500   1508      1515   C9.4      (October 28, 2024)   5.2E-03  

Papua New Guinea M 4.2 15:17 UT

 

3040       1613   1628      1644   M4.2      (October 28, 2024)   2.2E-03  

3060       1824   1832      1840   C7.3      (October 28, 2024)   6.2E-03  

3080       2137   2143      2152   C5.2      (October 28, 2024)   4.3E-03  

Ecuador M 3.6 21:50 UT

New South Wales M 1.6 21:47 UT

 

3110       2201   2207      2219   C7.6      (October 28, 2024)   8.3E-03  

3120       2219   2229      2234   C7.6      (October 28, 2024)   6.7E-03  

Fiji M 4.8 22:33 UT

 

 

AP INDICES

 

JANUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  10  6  11  6  5  3   3  4  6   7    6   4   3   6   6                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:    6    4   6    8   6   6   9   7  10   6   6   5   8  9   8   6                                   

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                         

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                       

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                          

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7    8  67  37  21  19                                       

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:   23   71  12   20   7   6   5  13  17  32  13   7   7 16  11                                      

 

 

OCTOBER   2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  7   8  8  6 16  55 58 19  96  116  20   5   8  15                                      

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31

 

AP:   15    9  14   23   7   5   8   9  13   3  14  10  17 12  15   9                                                                    

 

NOVEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   7 13  11 14 11 10   9 11 32  25   10   5   7  11  13                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30 

 

AP:    8    8   4                                                                                                                        

 

 

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

October 27, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw disturbed conditions with AP 10. High latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 14. Medium latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 8.

 

Minor storm conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely October 28 with active conditions October 29-30.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels October 28-30 with a moderate chance (75%) of an M-class flare and 30% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 99% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 4 at 18:00 UT on October 27, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 198. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 246 on October 27, 2024.    

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2610       0316   0324      0333   C8.3      (October 27, 2024)   6.6E-03  

Honshu M 3.9 03:32 UT

 

2650       0518   0532      0549   C7.6      (October 27, 2024)   1.2E-02  

2700       1125   1132      1138   C4.3      (October 27, 2024)   3.1E-03  

Peru M 4.1 11:35 UT

Los Angeles M 2.0 11:45 UT

 

2720       1232   1242      1257   C7.9      (October 27, 2024)   8.9E-03  

2740       1306   1315      1323   C7.1      (October 27, 2024)   1.9E-03  

El Salvador M 4.1 13:06 UT

Northern Philippines M 3.6 13:04 UT

 

2760       1323   1326      1331   C9.8      (October 27, 2024)   4.3E-03  

Kep Obi, Indonesia M 4.5 13:32 UT, M 4.7 13:35 UT

 

2780       1523   1535      1542   C7.4      (October 27, 2024)   7.4E-03  

Jan Mayen M 4.2 15:41 UT

Mindanao M 4.6 15:56 UT

 

2800       2008   2018      2029   C4.9      (October 27, 2024)   5.3E-03  

2820       2305   2324      2344   M2.8      (October 27, 2024)   3.9E-02  

Eastern Tennessee M 2.0 23:16 UT

 

 

AP INDICES

 

JANUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  10  6  11  6  5  3   3  4  6   7    6   4   3   6   6                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:    6    4   6    8   6   6   9   7  10   6   6   5   8  9   8   6                                  

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                        

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11        

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                      

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                 

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                          

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7    8  67  37  21  19                                       

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:   23   71  12   20   7   6   5  13  17  32  13   7   7 16  11                                      

 

 

OCTOBER   2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  7   8  8  6 16  55 58 19  96  116  20   5   8  15                                      

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31

 

AP:   15    9  14   23   7   5   8   9  13   3  14  10  17 12  15   9                                                                    

 

NOVEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   7 13  11 14 11 10   9 11 32  25   10   5   7  11                                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30 

 

AP:                                                                                                                                       

 

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

October 25, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw quiet conditions with AP  3. High latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 1. Medium latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 2.

 

Minor storm conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely October 26 with active conditions October 27-28.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels October 26-28 with a moderate chance (75%) of an M-class flare and 25% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 20% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 2 at 20:00 UT on October 25, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 157. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 209 on October 25, 2024.    

 

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 4, 2024 at 16:04:19 UT (#240904A).  No preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 5, 2024 at 18:26:03 UT (#240905E).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB of V>17.38.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 12, 2024 at 01:46:39 UT (#240912A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB of V>17.78.

 

A strong X-class (about X2.0) occurred today starting at about 03:00 UT on October 24 and

lasting for several hours. An estimate of the parameters from SWPC for this event follow:

 

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

XXXX       0300   0350      0730   X2.0      (October 24, 2024)   9.6E-02

 

This is the first X-class flare in the past two weeks - since an X1.3 on October, 29, 2024 (#7930)

with the last of larger energy as an X7.1 on October 1, 2024 and an X9.0 on October 3, 2024.

It occurred while the regions of Taiwan and the Philippines and Japan near 135 East longitude were at local solar

noon. This is the area most likely to see enhanced seismicity related to this flare;

secondarily, the area near the eastern U.S. and Canada, the Central Atlantic

Ridge and the northern Caribbean were near local solar midnight at the

time of this flare and could see related enhanced seismicity in the next

several days. This flare is likely to reset global seismicity from the

relatively quiet two previous weeks. In response to this, this summary will

emphasize current seismicity for the foreseeable future. Final daily reports

will be current and older unpublished reports will be produced as time permits.

A major eathquake is likely at this time and is overdue since the last such

event occurred more than two months ago in Tonga (M 6.9) in late August, 2024.

 

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2380       0632   0719      0756   X1.8      (October 26, 2024)   8.9E-01  

Colorado M 3.4 06:29 UT

El Salvador M 4.3 06:54 UT

Kerguelen Islands M 5.2 07:23 UT

 

2030       0255   0302      0309   C2.6      (October 25, 2024)   2.0E-03  

2060       0513   0518      0531   C3.5      (October 25, 2024)   3.3E-03  

2070       0652   0659      0705   C2.8      (October 25, 2024)   1.4E-03  

Central California M 2.5, 4.7 ... 07:28 UT

 

2080       0723   0733      0738   M1.1      (October 25, 2024)   5.0E-03  

Central California M 2.5, 4.7 ... 07:28 UT

 

2120       1026   1035      1044   C3.5      (October 25, 2024)   7.7E-04  

2140       1145   1149      1153   C2.9      (October 25, 2024)   1.4E-03  

2200       1722   1727      1731   C2.7      (October 25, 2024)   1.4E-03  

2220       1853   1858      1904   C3.2      (October 25, 2024)   2.0E-03  

 

AP INDICES

 

 

JANUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  10  6  11  6  5  3   3  4  6   7    6   4   3   6   6                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:    6    4   6    8   6   6   9   7  10   6   6   5   8  9   8   6                                  

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                         

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                      

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                          

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7    8  67  37  21  19                                        

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:   23   71  12   20   7   6   5  13  17  32  13   7   7 16  11                                      

 

 

OCTOBER   2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  7   8  8  6 16  55 58 19  96  116  20   5   8  15                                      

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30 31

 

AP:   15    9  14   23   7   5   8   9  13   3  14  10  17 12  15  9                                        

 

NOVEMBER  2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   7  13 11 16                                                                               

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30

 

AP:                                                                                                        

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

October 25, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw quiet conditions with AP  3. High latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 1. Medium latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 2.

 

Minor storm conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely October 26 with active conditions October 27-28.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels October 26-28 with a moderate chance (75%) of an M-class flare and 25% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 20% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 2 at 20:00 UT on October 25, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 157. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 209 on October 25, 2024.    

 

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 4, 2024 at 16:04:19 UT (#240904A).  No preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 5, 2024 at 18:26:03 UT (#240905E).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB of V>17.38.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 12, 2024 at 01:46:39 UT (#240912A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB of V>17.78.

 

A strong X-class (about X2.0) occurred today starting at about 03:00 UT on October 24 and

lasting for several hours. An estimate of the parameters from SWPC for this event follow:

 

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

XXXX       0300   0350      0730   X2.0      (October 24, 2024)   9.6E-02

 

This is the first X-class flare in the past two weeks - since an X1.3 on October, 29, 2024 (#7930)

with the last of larger energy as an X7.1 on October 1, 2024 and an X9.0 on October 3, 2024.

It occurred while the regions of Taiwan and the Philippines and Japan near 135 East longitude were at local solar

noon. This is the area most likely to see enhanced seismicity related to this flare;

secondarily, the area near the eastern U.S. and Canada, the Central Atlantic

Ridge and the northern Caribbean were near local solar midnight at the

time of this flare and could see related enhanced seismicity in the next

several days. This flare is likely to reset global seismicity from the

relatively quiet two previous weeks. In response to this, this summary will

emphasize current seismicity for the foreseeable future. Final daily reports

will be current and older unpublished reports will be produced as time permits.

A major eathquake is likely at this time and is overdue since the last such

event occurred more than two months ago in Tonga (M 6.9) in late August, 2024.

 

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2380       0632   0719      0756   X1.8      (Ocbober 26, 2024)   8.9E-01  

Colorado M 3.4 06:29 UT

El Salvador M 4.3 06:54 UT

Kerguelen Islands M 5.2 07:23 UT

 

2030       0255   0302      0309   C2.6      (October 25, 2024)   2.0E-03  

2060       0513   0518      0531   C3.5      (October 25, 2024)   3.3E-03  

2070       0652   0659      0705   C2.8      (October 25, 2024)   1.4E-03  

Central California M 2.5, 4.7 ... 07:28 UT

 

2080       0723   0733      0738   M1.1      (October 25, 2024)   5.0E-03  

Central California M 2.5, 4.7 ... 07:28 UT

 

2120       1026   1035      1044   C3.5      (October 25, 2024)   7.7E-04  

2140       1145   1149      1153   C2.9      (October 25, 2024)   1.4E-03  

2200       1722   1727      1731   C2.7      (October 25, 2024)   1.4E-03  

2220       1853   1858      1904   C3.2      (October 25, 2024)   2.0E-03  

 

AP INDICES

 

 

JANUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  10  6  11  6  5  3   3  4  6   7    6   4   3   6   6                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:    6    4   6    8   6   6   9   7  10   6   6   5   8  9   8   6                                   

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                         

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                       

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                          

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7    8  67  37  21  19                                        

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:   23   71  12   20   7   6   5  13  17  32  13   7   7 16  11                                      

 

 

OCTOBER   2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  7   8  8  6 16  55 58 19  96  116  20   5   8  15                                      

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30 31

 

AP:   15    9  14   23   7   5   8   9  13   3  14  10  17 12  15  9                                       

 

NOVEMBER  2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   7  13 11 16                                                                               

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30

 

AP:                                                                                                        

 

 

 

 

 

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

October 24, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw quiet conditions with AP  13. High latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 11. Medium latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 10.

 

Minor storm conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely October 26 with active conditions October  25 and 27.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels October 25 with a moderate chance (70%) of an M-class flare and 15% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 10% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 4 at 04:00 UT on October 24, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 138. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 197 on October 24, 2024.    

 

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 4, 2024 at 16:04:19 UT (#240904A).  No preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 5, 2024 at 18:26:03 UT (#240905E).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB of V>17.38.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 12, 2024 at 01:46:39 UT (#240912A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB of V>17.78.

 

A strong X-class (about X2.0) occurred today starting at about 03:00 UT on October 24 and

lasting for several hours. An estimate of the parameters from SWPC for this event follow:

 

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

XXXX       0300   0350      0730   X2.0      (October 24, 2024)   9.6E-02

 

This is the first X-class flare in the past two weeks - since an X1.3 on October, 29, 2024 (#7930)

with the last of larger energy as an X7.1 on October 1, 2024 and an X9.0 on October 3, 2024.

It occurred while the regions of Taiwan and the Philippines and Japan near 135 East longitude were at local solar

noon. This is the area most likely to see enhanced seismicity related to this flare;

secondarily, the area near the eastern U.S. and Canada, the Central Atlantic

Ridge and the northern Caribbean were near local solar midnight at the

time of this flare and could see related enhanced seismicity in the next

several days. This flare is likely to reset global seismicity from the

relatively quiet two previous weeks. In response to this, this summary will

emphasize current seismicity for the foreseeable future. Final daily reports

will be current and older unpublished reports will be produced as time permits.

A major eathquake is likely at this time and is overdue since the last such

event occurred more than two months ago in Tonga (M 6.9) in late August, 2024.

 

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

1820       0330   0357      0428   X3.3      (October 24, 2024)   7.1E-01  

1910       1022   1029      1034   M1.2      (October 24, 2024)   2.8E-03  

1940       1242   1250      1258   C6.4      (October 24, 2024)   5.5E-03  

 

AP INDICES

 

DECEMBER 2023

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  56 14  11  9 15 10   5  5  3   4    3  10   8  16  12                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:   14   36  28   12  11   5   4   7   9   4   5   4   3  6   5   4                                  

 

JANUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  10  6  11  6  5  3   3  4  6   7    6   4   3   6   6                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:    6    4   6    8   6   6   9   7  10   6   6   5   8  9   8   6                                  

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                        

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                      

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                          

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7    8  67  37  21  19                                       

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:   23   71  12   20   7   6   5  13  17  32  13   7   7 16  11                                       

 

 

OCTOBER   2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  7   8  8  6 16  55 58 19  96  116  20   5   8  15                                      

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:   15    9  14   23   7   5   8   9                                                                     

 

 

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

 

October 23, 2024

 

The planetary geomagnetic field today saw quiet conditions with AP  9. High latitudes saw disturbed conditions with AP 15. Medium latitudes saw quiet conditions with AP 7.

 

Disturbed conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely October 24 and 26 with active conditions October  25.  Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels October 24 with a moderate chance (60%) of an M-class flare and 10% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 5% probability in this time period.

 

The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 5 at 14:00 UT on October 23, 2024.    

 

The Wolf Sunspot number today was 104. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 185 on October 23, 2024.    

 

 

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 4, 2024 at 16:04:19 UT (#240904A).  No preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 5, 2024 at 18:26:03 UT (#240905E).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB of V>17.38.

A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on September 12, 2024 at 01:46:39 UT (#240912A).  A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was assigned to this GRB of V>17.78.

 

A strong X-class (about X2.0) occurred today starting at about 03:00 UT on October 24 and

lasting for several hours. An estimate of the parameters from SWPC for this event follow:

 

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

XXXX       0300   0350      0730   X2.0      (October 24, 2024)   9.6E-02

 

This is the first X-class flare in the past two weeks - since an X1.3 on October, 29, 2024 (#7930)

with the last of larger energy as an X7.1 on October 1, 2024 and an X9.0 on October 3, 2024.

It occurred while the regions of Taiwan and the Philippines and Japan near 135 East longitude were at local solar

noon. This is the area most likely to see enhanced seismicity related to this flare;

secondarily, the area near the eastern U.S. and Canada, the Central Atlantic

Ridge and the northern Caribbean were near local solar midnight at the

time of this flare and could see related enhanced seismicity in the next

several days. This flare is likely to reset global seismicity from the

relatively quiet two previous weeks. In response to this, this summary will

emphasize current seismicity for the foreseeable future. Final daily reports

will be current and older unpublished reports will be produced as time permits.

A major eathquake is likely at this time and is overdue since the last such

event occurred more than two months ago in Tonga (M 6.9) in late August, 2024.

 

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares

are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the

near future.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

1510       0007   0026      0043   C5.1      (October 23, 2024)   8.8E-03      

Antofagasta M 4.4 00:13 UT

Azores M 4.3 00:21 UT

Iceland M 3.0 00:31 UT

 

1560       1019   1022      1028   C3.5      (October 23, 2024)   1.8E-03  

1580       1041   1046      1052   C4.0      (October 23, 2024)   1.2E-03  

1590       1112   1120      1126   C4.6      (October 23, 2024)   3.1E-03  

1600       1137   1212      1306   C7.8      (October 23, 2024)   3.3E-02  

Nevada M 2.5 11:49 UT

 

1650       1708   1720      1729   C5.1      (October 23, 2024)   2.0E-03      

Luzon, M 3.6 17:08 UT

 

1680       2102   2110      2118   C5.4      (October 23, 2024)   4.2E-03  

Xizang M 4.0 21:11 UT

Kermadec Is. M 5.1 21:30 UT

 

1720       2244   2246      2250   C5.4      (October 23, 2024)   1.5E-03  

Xinjiang, China M 3.0 22:49 UT

 

1730       2324   2333      2339   C4.2      (October 23, 2024)   3.2E-03  

 

AP INDICES

 

DECEMBER 2023

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  56 14  11  9 15 10   5  5  3   4    3  10   8  16  12                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:   14   36  28   12  11   5   4   7   9   4   5   4   3  6   5   4                                  

 

JANUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  10  6  11  6  5  3   3  4  6   7    6   4   3   6   6                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31 

 

AP:    6    4   6    8   6   6   9   7  10   6   6   5   8  9   8   6                                  

 

 

FEBRUARY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  3   3  6  7  8   4  5  6   5   15   4  10   7   4                                     

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29

 

AP:    4    4   6    3   6   4   6   3   7  13  11  13   6  4                                          

 

 

MARCH 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   9  5  29 10  7  6  12 11 13   7    4   6   5   9   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31

 

AP:    3    3   8    9   4  27  11  36  64  22  11   7   7  6  5  9                                      

 

 

APRIL 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  11  8   3 12 12 10   6  8 11   8    6   7   5   6   8                                   

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 

 

AP:   31    7   4   41  12  19   9   8   4   3  19  12   7  6 12                                        

 

 

MAY 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   8 44  10  6 12 15   7  7  7 118  273  70  30   6  10                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30 31 

 

AP:   27   29  12    9   7   9   4  10   9   6  10   8   6  6  8 12    

 

 

JUNE 2024 

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   5  5  11  9  7  6  28 14  5  11   12   5   4   6  19                                    

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29 30    

 

AP:   13   11  10    9   7   5   4  10   5   9   9   9  59 14 11       

 

JULY 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  5   5 10  8  3   8 10  6   6    6   5   4   5   7                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:   10    5   5    5   7   5   9   5   6   9  23  13   7  6  23  17                                      

 

 

AUGUST 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  22  9  10 46 10  6   7  7  7   7   28 122  17  12   6                                                

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30  31  

 

AP:    8   31  13   10   7   8  10   7  10   7   5  11  26  5  23  26                                          

 

SEPTEMBER 2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:  16  8   7 13  7  7   8  9  9   7    8  67  37  21  19                                       

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:   23   71  12   20   7   6   5  13  17  32  13   7   7 16  11                                      

 

 

OCTOBER   2024

 

DATE: 1  2   3  4  5  6   7  8  9  10   11  12  13  14  15

 

AP:   6  7   8  8  6 16  55 58 19  96  116  20   5   8  15                                       

 

DATE: 16   17  18   19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28 29  30   

 

AP:   15    9  14   23   7   5   8   9