EXTERNAL FIELDS/EFFECTS
The geomagnetic field saw stormy conditions today. The AP level was 38. High latitudes saw major storm conditions with AP 61. Middle latitudes were at disturbed conditions with AP 18. This resumes a storm of November 22, 2023 which was the strongest ionospheric disturbance since AP reached 40 on November 6 and the most disturbed at high latitudes since high latitude AP reached 86 on October 28, 2023. This activity is likely to further enhance global seismicity near the geomagnetic equator and at high latitudes with the potential to trigger strong earthquakes in that zone in the next several days. A strong to major earthquake near the geomagnetic equator is likely in the next three days following this storm.
The geomagnetic field is expected to see active conditions November 27 and minor storms November 26 and disturbed conditions November 28. Solar activity is expected to be at low levels November 26-28 with a moderate chance (40%) of an M-class flare and 5% chance of an X-class flare. A proton storm is expected with 5% probability in this time period.
The maximum disturbance in the geomagnetic field today occurred with KP 7 at 07:00 UT on November 25.
The Wolf Sunspot number today was 179. Solar radio Flux 10.7 was 176 on November 25, 2023.
A strong GRB (Gamma Ray Burst) was detected by SWIFT on November 18. This GRB (231118A) was forst observed at 17:16:33 UT. It was given initial UVOT magnitude of 16.59.
SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY
Where applicable the strongest earthquakes associated with the largest flares
are listed. This may give some indication where SFE will be most likely in the
near future.
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2400 0913 0918 0923 C2.1 (November 25, 2023) 1.3E-03
Central Turkey M 2.0 09:14 UT
Argentina M 3.0 09:14 UT
Colima, Mexico M 3.4 09:14 UT
2460 1356 1439 1451 C4.4 (November 25, 2023) 1.3E-02
Mariana Is. M 5.5 15:10 UT
Santa Cruz Is. M 4.8 14:31 UT
Honshu M 3.8 14:33 UT
2480 1704 1711 1717 C1.5 (November 25, 2023) 1.1E-03
Mariana Is. M 5.6 17:18 UT
Coquimbo Chile, M 3.8 17:05 UT
AP INDICIES
MARCH 2023
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 8 9 22 15 22 15 11 8 17 11 7 8 3 17 29
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 8 7 8 10 13 8 17 60 66 15 8 3 5 6 17 21
APRIL 2023
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 13 15 15 13 11 9 8 8 6 14 6 4 6 7 9
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 4 8 13 12 5 9 7 66 76 10 15 23 19 20 10
MAY 2023
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 10 9 4 6 5 30 9 16 14 26 9 19 13 8 6
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 8 4 3 9 35 28 21 12 12 11 6 4 11 4 5 13
JUNE 2023
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 13 5 5 11 5 7 5 5 4 5 9 6 6 5 24
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 38 8 10 10 10 8 8 9 16 15 11 8 8 17 8
JULY 2023
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 5 5 5 4 7 11 18 8 4 5 8 6 7 20 8
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 10 24 16 5 10 13 9 6 7 11 21 7 6 9 9 6
AUGUST 2023
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 9 12 6 13 36 4 12 8 7 7 5 8 5 5 4
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 8 8 11 8 11 9 8 4 9 5 7 11 6 5 6 6
SEPTEMBER 2023
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 12 38 25 8 11 8 6 6 8 4 7 25 17 18 7
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
AP: 7 16 30 49 16 10 8 10 21 23 32 15 6 12 10
OCTOBER 2023
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 9 9 8 10 16 9 5 7 8 4 4 4 13 8 4
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 4 3 9 10 8 22 8 3 4 4 23 11 19 28 12 9
NOVEMBER 2023
DATE: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AP: 9 7 4 14 57 40 18 16 12 10 5 10 16 6 12
DATE: 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
AP: 8 3 3 4 5 18 30 7 7 38
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