MODERATE QUAKE DEADLY IN NORTHERN PAPUA NEW GUINEA

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MAY 24, 2024

 

 

A moderate quake of M 5.1 occurred in an unusual area of Papua New Guinea today. BMG  reported this earthquake of M 5.0 North of New Guinea  was felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of  New Guinea in Kab. Raja Ampat at Waigeo, Kepulauan, Waigeo, Teluk Mayalibit, Meos Amsur, Warwarbomi, Kota Waisai, Tiplol Mayalibit, Supinin and Ayau. NEIC reported it was felt in Kavieng, Papua New Guinea. Local Press reported that it triggered massive landslides in the region due to unusually wet grounds following much rain associated with Tropical Cyclone Ewiniar (TD 01W). Press reports indicate that at least 670 people were killed in the landslides and earthquake. The epicenter was near Kaokalam Village about 500 km northwest of Port Moresby, PNG. Most of those affected were subsistence farmers living off private gardens with homes easily destroyed by landslides. Aid workers are in the area at this time.

 

This earthquake was probably promoted by the full moon of May 23 as it lies at the longitude of greatest tidal stress with that event and occurred near local solar midnight as noted in this and previous issues of this summary:

 

"The full moon will arrive at 13:53 UT on May 23, 2024.  Longitudes which are sub-solar at this time are near 30 West and 150 East. These include the central Atlantic in the west and Japan and much of the eastern Pacific Rim from Kamchatka to New Guinea in the east. These areas may see moderate seismic enhancement over the next seven days to enhanced tidal stresses but other tidally stressed areas may also see increased seismicity at this time." (May 20-24, 2024)

 

This summary had warned of the possible seismic affects in this region in

the previous summary as:

 

 

A recent series of moderately large earthquakes near the geomagnetic equator in Indonesia and New Britain/New Ireland/New Guinea raises concern about triggered earthquakes associated with the major geomagnetic storm of mid-May.

 

...

 

Seismicity in the area of Indonesia, New Guinea and Vanuatu is also expected to continue to be enhanced in the next week with a strong earthquake likely in this region." (May 22-24. 2024)

 

This is the largest earthquake in northern New Ireland within about 200 km  of this epicenter since an M 5.2 on March 9, 2018.

 

Forecast 163152 had expected this event in New Ireland was likely around May 22, 2024.

 

O: 24MAY2024 15:51:32   1.7S  151.8E MB=5.1  EMSC   NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.   

P: 22MAY2024 163152     5.0S  151.0E 4.0-5.4 ACAAA  New Ireland                

 

An unusually large aftershock of M 2.9 was felt in New Jersey today. This appears to be the strongest aftershock to date of the M 3.8 in New Jersey of April 5, 2024. A similar M 2.8-2.9 occurred on April 27, 2024. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to IV in Gladstone. EMSC report a bang and a quick shake in New Jersey at Whitehouse Station, Glen Gardner, Long Valley, Lebanon, Hillsborough with an earthquake noise like a train passing. This earthquake appears to have been triggered by Solar Flare effects associated with M1.0 class solar flare (6120) which was first observed within a minute of the occurrence of this earthquake in New Jersey. SWPC data for this flare follows:

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

6120       0751   0801      0808   M1.0      (May 24, 2024)   8.1E-03  

New Jersey M 2.9 07:50  UT

 

Forecast 163289 had expected enhanced aftershock activity in this region was likely around May 27.

 

O: 24MAY2024 07:50:12  40.7N   74.7W ML=2.9  EMSC   NEW JERSEY                   

P: 27MAY2024 163289    41.0N   74.0W 2.0-4.1 BAAAA  New York State             

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.5 in False Pass, Unimak Island where it was not reported felt. This continues recent activity in Unimak Island where the last such earthquake was an M 4.7 on May 23, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquakes in the U.S. or Canada today were of M 4.5 and 4.7 and occurred in the Unimak Island area near False Pass Alaska. They were not reported felt in this remote area. The last earthquake of equal or greater magnitude in the Unimak Island area was an M 4.8 on April 10, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"Today's event in the Fox Islands occurred within minutes of local solar noon and was probably promoted by strong tidal stresses which maximize near this hour." (April 11, 2024)

 

Today's earthquake in the Unimak Island region occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and was probably promoted by strong tidal stresses associated with the full moon today as noted in this and previous issues of this summary:

(See above)

 

 

The strongest earthquake in the Unimak Island area in the past four years was an M 5.1 on September 9, 2021 and also on January 11, 2021." (May 23, 2024)

 

Today's Unimak earthquake appears to have been triggered by Solar Flare effects associated with M1.4 class solar flare (6100) which reached its maximum output  within minutes of the time of occurrence of this earthquake in Unimak Island. SWPC data for this flare follows:

 

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

6100       0628   0706      0721   M1.4      (May 24, 2024)   2.3E-03  

Unimak Island M 4.5 07:16  UT

 

Forecast 163313 and 163326 had expected today's activity in Alaska was likely within  about 100 km around May 26-27, 2024.

 

 

 

O: 24MAY2024 07:16:42  53.6N  163.5W MW=4.5  EMSC   UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 

P: 26MAY2024 163313    53.9N  165.3W 3.5-5.3 AAAAA  Fox Islands, Aleutians     

P: 27MAY2024 163326    54.2N  162.5W 3.5-4.9 BAAAA  Unimak Islands, Aleutians  

 

An earthquake of M 4.4 also occurred in the westernmost Aleutian Islands in  the Near Islands today. It was not reported felt in this remote area. The last earthquake in the Near Islands with M>=4.4 occurred on December 25, 2023 with M 4.7.

 

Forecast 163321 had expected today's event was likely within about 100 km  around May 25.

 

O: 24MAY2024 18:59:29  51.9N  173.6E MB=4.4  EMSC   NEAR ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

P: 25MAY2024 163321    52.0N  175.0E 4.0-5.6 AAAAA  Rat Islands                

 

An unusual earthquake in the North Atlantic Ridge also appears to have been triggered today by a solar flare. This quake of M 4.4-4.5 occurred within  a minute of the initiation of solar flare 6240 at a time when this epicenter was at local solar noon - a time when SFE and Tidal effects maximize. Following is the SWPC data for this flare.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

6240       1349   1358      1407   C3.4      (May 24, 2024)   7.0E-04  

Northern Mid-Atlantic M 4.4 13:50 UT

 

The last earthquake in the North Mid-Atlantic Ridge within about 200 km of this epicenter and with M>=4.4 occurred on July 31, 2022 with M 4.8 about 150 km north of today's epicenter.

 

Forecast 163317 had expected a moderate quake in this area was likely around

May 22. This epicenter is located at 103 degrees from the M 7.2 in Taiwan of

April 2, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

 

O: 24MAY2024 13:50:36  48.2N   27.5W MB=4.4  EMSC   NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE  

O: 24MAY2024 13:50:36  48.2N   27.5W MB=4.5  ANSS   NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE  

P: 22MAY2024 163317    50.0N   29.0W 4.0-5.9 ABAAA  North Mid-Atlantic Ridge   

 

 

EFFECTS OF GEOMAGNETIC STORMS; X-CLASS SOLAR FLARES LINGER

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MAY 23, 2024

 

The strongest earthquakes in the world today occurred in the Indian Ocean and were not reported felt in these remote area. They included an M 5.5 in the Carlsberg Ridge and an M 5.6 in the Southwest Indian Ridge. Earthquakes of M 4.7 and 4.6 respectively occurred in the mid-Indian Ridge and in the Southeast Indian Ridge. The event in the mid-Indian Ridge may have been promoted by effects from Tropical Cyclone Ialy which passed near this epicenter in mid-May

as reported in this summary at the time:

 

"TC Ialy formed today in the region north of Madagascar with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track to the south over the next several days but not to increase much in strength. Seismicity in the region of east Africa and Mayotte may be enhanced while TC Ialy is in the vicinity." (May 15, 2024)

 

Forecast 163084 had expected regional seismic enhancement with this storm in mid-May.

 

O: 23MAY2024 16:34:45  11.5S   66.2E MB=4.7  EMSC   MID-INDIAN RIDGE             

P: 13MAY2024 163084    14.0S   66.0E 4.0-5.4 CCAAA  So. Indian Ocean           

 

An earthquake of M 6.2 hit near today's epicenter in the Southeast Indian Ridge on February 4, 2022. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.2-6.3 in the South Indian Ocean. It was not reported felt in this remote oceanic region.

 

"The New Moon arrived at 05:46 UT on February 1, 2022. Longitudes near 87 West and 93 East were at solar midnight and solar noon ...

 

...

 

Today's event is the strongest within about 300 km of this epicenter since an M 6.5 on October 29, 2005. An M 6.2 also occurred near today's epicenter on February 5, 2010 exactly 12 years ago." (February 4, 2022)

 

It is of some interest that this epicenter is nearly antipodal to a series of light earthquakes in Ontario, Canada on May 22. The antipodal relation in this case is not well understood and may be random.

 

O: 22MAY2024 01:50:15  45.8N   81.7W MB=2.4  ECAN OF WIKWEMIKONG, ON             

O: 22MAY2024 01:49:39  45.8N   81.6W MB=1.9  ECAN OF WIKWEMIKONG, ON   

P: 27MAY2024 163295    41.8N   81.4W 2.0-4.4 BCAAA  Ohio/Lake Erie             

 

Forecast 163374 had expected enhanced seismicity in this area was likely around

May 27.

 

O: 24MAY2024 01:11:25  48.2S   99.1E MB=4.6  EMSC   SOUTHEAST INDIAN RIDGE       

P: 27MAY2024 163374    45.0S   97.0E 4.0-5.6 BCBAA  So. Indian Ocean           

 

The earthquake of M 5.5 in the Carlsberg Ridge is the strongest within about 200 km in that area since an M 5.8 on December 2, 2014 more than 10 years ago. At the time this summary noted:

 

"A series of moderate to strong earthquakes occurred within 26 minutes early on December 2. The largest of these was an M 6.4-6.6 south of Mindanao, Philippines.

 

...

 

The earthquake in Mindanao was preceded by an M 5.9-6.0 quake in the continuing series in the Carlsberg Ridge, Indian Ocean about 18 minutes earlier. As this is the approximate time it takes for an S-wave to move from the Carlsberg Ridge to the epicenter in the Philippines (60-61 degrees, node 6), it is likely that the event in the Philippines was dynamically triggered by this wave from the Carlsberg Ridge." (December 2, 2014)

 

...

 

The earthquake in the Carlsberg Ridge which appears to have started this sequence of unusual seismicity was part of the ongoing seismic enhancement of the area which began last week. This is occurring at an unusual epicenter and the M 5.8-6.0 is the largest event within 300 km of this epicenter in at least 25 years." (December 2, 2014)

 

An M 5.0 hit near this epicenter on January 21, 2024 a day before the M 7.1 in Xinjiang, China.

 

O: 23MAY2024 10:50:00   5.4N   61.6E MW=5.5  EMSC   CARLSBERG RIDGE              

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today occurred in the Southwest Indian Ridge with M 5.6. This is the largest earthquake recorded by NEIC in this region within about 250 km of today's epicenter since an M 6.0 about 250 km southeast of today's epicenter on September 18, 2018 - the only other such event of M>=5.6 in the region in the past 35 years. At that time this summary noted:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.0 in the Southwest Indian Ridge. It was not felt in this remote area. The last earthquake of M>=6 within about  400 km of this epicenter occurred on January 11, 2004 with M 6.2 about 300 km east of today's event and was the only such event in the area in at least 30 years

 

The antipode of this epicenter is located at 37.8N 130W far off the coast of

San Francisco, California. Some antipodal triggering in that area is possible but not likely at moderate magnitude levels." (September 18, 2018)

 

Forecast 163374 had expected enhanced seismicity in this area of the  Southwest Indian Ridge was likely around May 27 to the southwest of today's epicenter.

 

O: 23MAY2024 11:27:03  37.3S   47.7E MW=5.6  EMSC   SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE       

P: 27MAY2024 163374    41.0S   43.0E 4.0-5.8 BCCAA  So. Indian Ocean           

 

 

A recent series of moderately large earthquakes near the geomagnetic equator in Indonesia and New Britain/New Ireland/New Guinea raises concern about triggered earthquakes associated with the major geomagnetic storm of mid-May. The area of central Peru has been surprisingly quiet during this period. It lies near the geomagnetic equator, and like Indonesia, can be triggered by strong geomagnetic storms. It is possible that this area could see a strong to major earthquake in the next week. If this should occur, it is most likely off the coast near 15S-17S 70W-80W on the subduction zone boundary. An unusual earthquake west of North Island, New Zealand could be a precursor to such an event.  Seismicity in the area of  Indonesia, New Guinea and Vanuatu is also expected to continue to be enhanced in the next week with a strong earthquake likely in this region.

 

Sub-solar latitudes at this time lie near 18-19 North latitude. This zone could also see enhanced seismicity at this time. Active area at this latitude include Taiwan and northern Philippines, Mariana Islands, Hawaii, western Mexico, and the northern Caribbean including Puerto Rico, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Watch for stronger than normal seismicity in these areas during the coming week.

 

The strongest earthquakes in the U.S. or Canada today were of M 4.5 and 4.7 and occurred in the Unimak Island area near False Pass Alaska. They were not reported felt in this remote area. The last earthquake of equal or greater magnitude in the Unimak Island area was an M 4.8 on April 10, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"Today's event in the Fox Islands occurred within minutes of local solar noon and was probably promoted by strong tidal stresses which maximize near this hour." (April 11, 2024)

 

Today's earthquake in the Unimak Island region occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and was probably promoted by strong tidal stresses associated with the full moon today as noted in this and previous issues of this summary:

 

"The full moon will arrive at 13:53 UT on May 23, 2024.  Longitudes which are sub-solar at this time are near 30 West and 150 East. These include the central Atlantic in the west and Japan and much of the eastern Pacific Rim from Kamchatka to New Guinea in the east. These areas may see moderate seismic enhancement over the next seven days to enhanced tidal stresses but other tidally stressed areas may also see increased seismicity at this time." (May 20-24, 2024)

 

The strongest earthquake in the Unimak Island area in the past four years was an M 5.1 on September 9, 2021 and also on January 11, 2021.

 

Forecast 163313 had expected today's activity in Alaska was likely within about 100 km around May 26, 2024.

 

O: 24MAY2024 07:16:43  53.6N  163.6W mw=4.5  ANSS   False Pass Alaska

O: 23MAY2024 10:38:24  53.2N  164.6W MB=4.7  EMSC   UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 

P: 26MAY2024 163313    53.9N  165.3W 3.5-5.3 BAAAA  Fox Islands, Aleutians     

 

An unusual earthquake of M 4.0 also occurred today in the northern Yukon and Northwest Territories of Canada. It was not reported felt in this remote area and was followed by an aftershock 10 minutes later of M 3.0. This is the strongest earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter since an M 4.2 on October 16, 2015 but the last of significantly larger magnitude in the region was an M 4.8-4.9 on December 11, 2012. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"On the other side of the IDL, an M 4.2 hit in the region of Fort McPherson, Canada today. It was not reported damaging or felt in this remote epicentral area of western Canada.

...

 The last earthquake of M>=4.2 in this area occurred on December 11, 2012 with M 4.9." (October 16, 2015)

 

Forecast 163336 had expected today's activity was likely within about 150 km  of these epicenters around May 25.

 

O: 23MAY2024 19:14:11  68.2N  136.4W MB=3.0  ECAN OF AKLAVIK, NT   

O: 23MAY2024 19:04:45  68.1N  136.4W MB=4.0  ECAN OF AKLAVIK, NT   

O: 23MAY2024 19:04:45  68.1N  136.4W ML=4.0  EMSC   NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY, CANA

P: 25MAY2024 163336    66.9N  135.8W 3.0-4.6 ABAAA  Northern Alaska            

 

An earthquake of M 2.5 shook the San Francisco Bay area of California today. NEIC reported this earthquake of M 2.5 in Central California was felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of  Central California in Antioch.  It coincided with the maximum output of solar flare 5940 - a C6.5 flare and occurred within minutes of local solar noon. This reminds that this area is sensitive to solar flares and may be near a larger regional event. Following is the data from SWPC for this flare:

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

5940       2027   2034      2042   C6.5      (May 23, 2024)   4.2E-03  

 

Forecast 163221 had expected this event in San Francisco was likely within

about 25 km around May 23.

 

O: 23MAY2024 20:36:31  38.0N  121.8W MD=2.5  EMSC   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.

O: 23MAY2024 20:36:31  38.0N  121.8W md=2.5  ANSS   SW of Antioch CA

P: 23MAY2024 163221    37.8N  121.9W 2.5-4.5 AAAAA  Central California          

 

An earthquake of M 3.4 followed the San Francisco Bay event five minutes later

off the coast of Baja, California. This area showed significant seismic activity following an M 6.2 on November 22, 2022. It has been relatively quiet in the past year - since an M 4.5 on May 14, 2023 - last reported of M>=3.4 by NEIC. Many events in this area have been reported by EMSC in the meantime but have not been reported by NEIC. This suggests NEIC has data about these events that is not in possession by EMSC. Most of this swarm has occurred about 50 km north of today's epicenter. The last event nearer than 60 km to today's epicenter with M>=3.4 was an M 3.8 on September 4, 2002.

 

Forecast 163249 had expected enhanced regional seismicity was likely in this area around May 25.

 

O: 23MAY2024 20:41:25  30.2N  116.0W ML=3.4  EMSC   OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXI

P: 25MAY2024 163249    31.9N  116.3W 2.5-4.7 ABAAA  So. California             

 

 

EARTHQUAKES IN NEW GUINEA; KENTUCKY WITH SEISMIC LULL

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MAY 22, 2024

 

Seismicity in the world today continued at low levels as the effects of the major X-class solar flares and massive geomagnetic storms of mid-May, 2024 have apparently triggered much of the currently available seismic stress capable of producing moderate to large earthquakes at this time. The strongest earthquake in the world was an M 5.3 in Eastern New Guinea - an area which has seen enhanced seismicity probably related to the geomagnetic storms (it lies on the geomagnetic equator). Today's event in New Guinea occurred near local solar noon and may also have been promoted by strong tidal stresses with today's full moon as summarized in this and previous issues of this summary:

 

"The full moon will arrive at 13:53 UT on May 23, 2024.  Longitudes which are sub-solar at this time are near 30 West and 150 East. These include the central Atlantic in the west and Japan and much of the eastern Pacific Rim from Kamchatka to New Guinea in the east. These areas may see moderate seismic enhancement over the next seven days to enhanced tidal stresses but other tidally stressed areas may also see increased seismicity at this time." (May 20-23, 2024)

 

Today's M 5.3 in eastern New Guinea was probably an aftershock of an M 5.7 which struck on May 21, 2024 and a foreshock of M 5.3 on May 19, 2024. At that time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.7 in Papua New Guinea. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to IV in Lae, PNG. It occurred near local solar noon and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses associated with the full moon of May 23 which maximizes over this epicenter as reported in the previous issue of this summary

 

...

 

This event joins other moderately large earthquakes along the geomagnetic equator in Papua New Guinea and New Ireland/Britain which have occurred daily since the major geomagnetic storm of mid-May, the strongest such ionospheric storm since October, 2003. Effects of such geomagnetic storms are greatest along the geomagnetic equator.

 

This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of today's epicenter since an M 5.9 on November 14, 2023. The last of M>=6 was an M 6.7 and M 6.9 on October 7, 2023." (May 21, 2024)

 

Forecast 163151 had expected today's event within about 150 km was likely around May 24, 2024.

 

O: 23MAY2024 04:19:02   6.2S  147.8E MB=5.3  EMSC   EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G

P: 24MAY2024 163151     5.0S  147.0E 4.0-5.4 ABAAA  New Ireland                 

 

An earthquake of M 2.7 occurred today in eastern Kentucky.  NEIC reported this earthquake of M 2.7 in Kentucky was felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of  Kentucky in Hyden. The last earthquake with M>=2.7 within about 100 km of today's epicenter was an M 2.8 a year ago on May 20, 2023 and two years before that on May 26, 2021 also with M 2.8. The last earthquake in this general area of larger magnitude than M 2.8 occurred as an M 5.1 on April 9, 2020. At the time this summary noted:

 

"An earthquake of M 5.1 shook large areas of eastern U.S. today. This event was centered on the North Carolina-Virginia border. It was reported by nearly 100,000 persons to NEIC. Maximum intensity V was felt in North Carolina at Sarta, Glade Valle, Ennice, Roaring Gap, Traphill and Hays with IV in Laurel Springs, Thurmond, North Carolina and Independence, Virginia. Light to moderate shaking was reported throughout most of the eastern U.S. including in Tennessee, Virginia, Kentucky, North and South Carolina. It was also reported up to 1500 km from the epicenter in South Dakota, Kansas, Ontario, Nova Scotia, and Arizona among most other states in between. While lighter foreshocks of M 2.2 and 2.1 occurred about a day earlier, an M 2.6 foreshock near local solar midnight may have been tidally enhanced. It was reported felt with maximum intensity V in North Wilkesboro, North Carolina; IV in North Carolina at Sparta, Hiddenite, Lenoir and Statesville among other localities. Damage was minimal but internet pictures showed store items thrown to the floor in many areas and cleanup will be extensive. Some structural damage was reported including the collapse of a chimney in Sparta, North Carolina. The last earthquake of similar or larger magnitude in the area was an M 5.2 on 1916 in the Great Smoky Mountains.

The earthquake of August, 2011 near Mineral, Virginia of M 5.8 was one of the largest in east coast history and did extensive damage as far as Washington, D.C. A series of foreshocks hit the region in the day prior to the mainshock with M 2.1-2.6." (August 9, 2020)

 

Forecast 162956 had expected today's event in this area was likely around

May 20, 2024.

 

O: 22MAY2024 09:47:58  37.0N   83.3W MD=2.7  EMSC   EASTERN KENTUCKY             

O: 22MAY2024 09:47:58  37.0N   83.3W md=2.7  ANSS   SSE of Hyden Kentucky

P: 20MAY2024 162956    36.0N   83.0W 2.0-4.1 AAAAA  Kentucky/Tennessee/NC      

 

SEISMICITY AT VOLCANIC CENTERS FOLLOWS GEOMAGNETIC STORM

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MAY 21, 2024

 

Strong volcanism occurred today in Japan at Sakurajima and Guatemala at Fuego as well as continued tremor near Naples, Italy. This may be related to the recent major geomagnetic storm. Such storms are often followed by a major increase in global volcanism. A series of light earthquakes in Hawaii also continued today with an M 3.4 recorded.

 

Enhanced seismicity also continued today in the region near the geomagnetic equator and included continuing eruptions in Mount Ibu in northern Maluku province. Two earthquakes of M 5.4-5.6 were reported in Indonesia - in Minahasa, Sulawesi and in Papua, New Guinea. These were the strongest earthquakes in the world today.

 

BMG  reported this earthquake of M 5.6 in Sulawesi, Indonesia was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of  Poigar, Bolaang, Mongondow, Sulawesi and III in Kab. Bolaang, Kotamobagu, Banggai and Bone. The last earthquake in Minahasa Sulawesi of equal or larger magnitude than M 5.4 was an M 5.8 about 100 km north of today's event which occurred on May 13, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

"BMG reported a moderately strong earthquake occurred in Sulawesi, Indonesia today. BMG reported intensity III in Sulawesi Tengah, Balantak, Banggai with II in Balantak. Lesser shaking was reported from Kab. Mongondow, Minahas, Mongondow, Siau, Biaro, among other regional Kabs." (May 13, 2024)

 

Forecast 163137 had expected the event in Sulawesi was likely within about

100 km around May 22.

 

O: 22MAY2024 05:49:14   0.2N  123.7E MB=5.4  EMSC   MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA

P: 22MAY2024 163137     0.0N  123.0E 4.0-5.7 AAAAA  Mindanao, Philippines      

 

An M 6.3-6.5 hit about 100 km northwest of today's M 5.4 in Papua, Indonesia on December 30, 2023, the last such event within about 200 km with M>=5.4. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake of the day was an M 6.3 in the region of West Irian, New Guinea. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to VI in the epicentral area near Abepura, Indonesia. EMSC reported moderate shaking in Irian Jaya at Yayapura and Yapen Selatan. BMG reported it with M 6.5 and intensity up to VI in the epicentral area with V-VI in Jayapura, Maris, Sarmi, Burmoso, Wamena and IV in Oksibil, and others. The last earthquake of equal or larger magnitude within about 200 km of today's epicenter was an M 6.3 on June 19, 2019 and an M 7.0 on July 27, 2013 and April 6, 2013.

 

...

 

Strong earthquakes in the  region of Papua, Indonesia can precede enhanced seismicity in Southern California by about a month at a distance of 103 degrees on the earth's surface. A typical example was the M 8.1 in this area on January 10, 1971 followed by the M 6.7 San Fernando earthquake in Los Angeles of February 9, 1971. A similar example occurred in October, 1979 when the Superstition Hills quake in southern California followed a major quake in this area of New Guinea." (December 31, 2023)

 

Forecast 163166 had expected the event in Papua was likely within about

100 km around May 23.

 

O: 21MAY2024 08:32:00   2.2S  138.2E MB=5.4  EMSC   PAPUA, INDONESIA             

P: 23MAY2024 163166     3.0S  139.0E 4.0-5.4 AAAAA  West Irian, PNG            

 

The series of earthquakes near Naples, Italy continue today. The strongest of these was an M 3.6. In the previous issue of this summary this had been addressed as:

 

"A series of light to moderate earthquakes including an M 4.1 and 4.2 also occurred today in the area of Naples, Italy. This is a region where a volcanic eruption could bring significant disruption and destruction should it occur. Seismicity has been increasing in this area over the past several months and may represent precursory activity to volcanism in this area which has seen such activity over the past several millennia - including the eruption of Mt. Vesuvius which covered Herculaneum and Pompei in ash in the first century of the current era. Today's event of M 4.2 is the strongest shallow focus  earthquake (possibly volcanic) near Naples in at least 35 years. Local geophysicists reported to the press it was the strongest in the area in the past 40 years.

 

NEIC reported these earthquakes of M 4.1 and 4.2 in Italy were felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of  Italy in Procida. EMSC reported strong shaking in Italy at Procida, Pozzuoli, Giugliano in Campania, Napoli, Quarto, Casoria, San Giorgio a Cremano, Casoria, Marcianise." (May 21, 2024)

 

Forecasts 163012 and 163233 had expected this activity in southern Italy was likely around May 15-23.

 

 

O: 22MAY2024 06:28:00  40.8N   14.1E MD=3.6  EMSC   SOUTHERN ITALY               

P: 23MAY2024 163233    40.0N   14.0E 3.0-4.6 AAAAA  Mediterranean/Sicily       

 

An earthquake of M 4.2-4.3 also occurred in the Pyrennes near the France-Spain border today. EMSC reported this earthquake of M 4.3 in France was felt with intensity up to V in the area(s) of  France in Gerde, Bagneres-de-Bigorre, Labassere, Visker, Esparros, Ayros-Arbouix, Lourdes, Benac, Argeles-Gazost, Saligos, Heches, Esquieze-Sere, Semeac, Tarbes, Lannemezan, Ibos, Vielle-Aure, Cadihan-Trachere, Montrejeau, Louvie-Juzon, Saint-Gaudens, and in Les and Lleida, Spain as a light vibration. The last earthquake to occur within about 200 km of this epicenter with M>=4.2 was an M 4.8 on December 30, 2012. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

 

"An unusual earthquake of M 4.2-4.7 hit the Pyrennes on the border between France and Spain today causing concern on the ski slopes at this holiday season. IGN reported this earthquake of M 4.2 was felt with intensity III in Spain in Jaca and Panticosa and II in Alfaro, Ejea de los Caballeros, Huesca and Zaragoza. EMSC reported intensity V in the Pyrennes in Pau. The nearest large city is Toulouse about 100 km to the east. No damage was reported. This is the strongest earthquake in the area in at least four years. An earthquake of M 4.4 hit near this epicenter near Laurens and Nay, France on July 16, 2008 after a similar event on May 18, 2008. The strongest earthquake in the region in the past 22 years was an M 5.4 on November 17, 2006." (December 30, 2012)

 

Forecast 163039 and 163302 had expected this event was likely around May 17-23 within about 50-100 km of today's epicenter.

 

O: 21MAY2024 09:23:32  43.0N    0.1E ML=4.2  EMSC   FRANCE                        

P: 17MAY2024 163039    43.0N    1.0W 3.0-5.4 BAAAA  Spain                      

P: 23MAY2024 163302    43.0N    1.0W 3.0-5.4 AAAAA  Spain                      

 

The Pacific-Antarctic Ridge continued to see moderate earthquakes today. An M 5.3 occurred in this region today. Earthquakes of M 5.4 and 5.1 hit this epicenter on May 14, 2024 - the only such regional event of M>=5.3 in the past four years - and this may be an aftershock of that activity.  At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"An M 5.4 and an aftershock of  M 5.1 occurred today on the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge. These followed strong flares and may have been promoted by SFE. Events at high latitudes are often associated with strong geomagnetic storms which are maximized in polar regions." (May 14, 2024)

 

Forecast 163124 had expected this activity was likely in mid-May in the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge.

 

O: 21MAY2024 11:09:54  54.9S  129.9W MB=5.3  ANSS   PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE"     

P: 12MAY2024 163124    56.0S  122.0W 4.0-5.4 CBCAA  Pacific-Antarctic Ridge    

 

 

 

MODERATELY STRONG SEISMICITY CONTINUES ALONG GEOMAGNETIC EQUATOR

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MAY 20, 2024

 

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.7 in Papua New Guinea. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to IV in Lae, PNG. It occurred near local solar noon and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses associated with the full moon of May 23 which maximizes over this epicenter as reported in the previous issue of this summary:

 

"The full moon will arrive at 13:53 UT on May 23, 2024.  Longitudes which are sub-solar at this time are near 30 West and 150 East. These include the central Atlantic in the west and Japan and much of the eastern Pacific Rim from Kamchatka to New Guinea in the east. These areas may see moderate seismic enhancement over the next seven days to enhanced tidal stresses but other tidally stressed areas may also see increased seismicity at this time." (May 20, 2024)

 

This event joins other moderately large earthquakes along the geomagnetic equator in Papua New Guinea and New Ireland/Britain which have occurred daily since the major geomagnetic storm of mid-May, the strongest such ionospheric storm since October, 2003. Effects of such geomagnetic storms are greatest along the geomagnetic equator.

 

This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of today's epicenter since an M 5.9 on November 14, 2023. The last of M>=6 was an M 6.7 and M 6.9 on October 7, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The earthquakes in New Guinea coincided with a moderate solar flare (#5480) and may have been promoted by SFE associated with that flare.

 

...

 

An M 7.0 occurred about 350 km north of today's epicenter on April 2, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The last earthquake of M>=6 in this area of Papua was an M 6.0 on January 18, 2020. but no earthquake larger size than this have been recorded in this area since an M 6.7 on January 10, 2002. ...  This epicenter is at 103 degrees from the mainshocks in Turkey and was probably promoted by energy from those sources." (February 9, 2023, April 2, 2023, October 7, 2023)

 

Forecast 162877 had expected today's event was likely in this area around May 20, 2024.

 

O: 21MAY2024 03:35:59   6.3S  147.3E MW=5.7  EMSC   EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G

O: 21MAY2024 03:35:58   6.3S  147.3E mb=5.7  ANSS   Lae Papua New Guinea

P: 20MAY2024 162877     6.0S  146.0E 4.0-5.4 AAAAA  New Ireland                

 

A series of light to moderate earthquakes including an M 4.1 and 4.2 also  occurred today in the area of Naples, Italy. This is a region where a volcanic eruption could bring significant disruption and destruction should it occur. Seismicity has been increasing in this area over the past several months and may represent precursory activity to volcanism in this area which has seen such activity over the past several millennia - including the eruption of Mt. Vesuvius which covered Herculaneum and Pompei in ash in the first century of the current era. Today's event of M 4.2 is the strongest shallow focus earthquake (possibly volcanic) near Naples in at least 35 years. Local geophysicists reported to the press it was the strongest in the area in the past 40 years.

 

NEIC reported these earthquakes of M 4.1 and 4.2 in Italy were felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of  Italy in Procida. EMSC reported strong shaking in Italy at Procida, Pozzuoli, Giugliano in Campania, Napoli, Quarto, Casoria, San Giorgio a Cremano, Casoria, Marcianise.

 

Forecasts 163012 and 163233 had expected this activity in southern Italy was likely around May 15-23.

 

O: 20MAY2024 19:46:13  40.8N   14.1E mb=4.2  EMSC   SOUTHERN ITALY

O: 20MAY2024 21:00:55  40.8N   14.1E MD=3.6  EMSC   SOUTHERN ITALY

O: 20MAY2024 18:10:02  40.7N   14.0E MB=4.1  EMSC   SOUTHERN ITALY               

O: 20MAY2024 19:46:13  40.8N   14.0E mb=4.2  ANSS   NE of Procida Italy

P: 15MAY2024 163012    41.0N   15.0E 3.0-5.1 BAAAA  Italy                      

P: 23MAY2024 163233    40.0N   14.0E 3.0-4.6 BAAAA  Mediterranean/Sicily       

 

The strongest earthquakes in the U.S. or Canada today occurred at high latitudes where they were probably promoted by recent strong solar flares and geomagnetic storms. These event of M 4.5 each were located in the Gulf of Alaska and in  the Baffin Bay area of northeastern Canada. They were not reported felt in these remote epicentral areas.i

 

The last earthquake of equal or larger magnitude in the Gulf of Alaska within

about 250 km of today's epicenter occurred more than a year ago on March 17, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.9 in the Gulf of Alaska. This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 5.0 on May 2, 2016 and a similar M 5.0 on August 27, 2014. The last earthquake in this area of significantly larger magnitude than today's M 4.9, and the only such event in the area in the past 35 years was an M 5.6 on July 25, 2009." (March 17, 2023)

 

Forecasts 163067 and 163332 had expected enhanced seismicity in this area was likely around May 17-24.

 

O: 21MAY2024 02:30:45  58.7N  145.6W MB=4.5  EMSC   GULF OF ALASKA               

P: 17MAY2024 163067    60.1N  148.4W 3.2-5.0 BBBAA  Central Alaska             

P: 24MAY2024 163332    60.2N  147.1W 3.2-5.1 BBAAA  Central Alaska             

 

The M 4.5 in the Baffin Bay west of Greenland today was among the strongest within about 150 km of this epicenter in the past 35 years. This event at high latitudes near the north geomagnetic pole suggests it was triggered by the geomagnetic storm of mid-May, the strongest such storm in the past 21 years. While no earthquakes with magnitude significantly larger than M 4.5 have not hit in this area of Baffin Bay in at least four years, earthquakes about 250 km west of today's epicenter did occur on November 19, 2022. September 26, 2021 both with M 4.5. The only event in this region of significantly larger magnitude was an M 6.0 on July 7, 2009. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"A large earthquake of M 6.1 hit the Baffin Bay region of Canada southeast of Craig Harbour, Nunavit today. This is a remote region and there were no reports of damage or casualties from this earthquake. While it is not generally known, this is the most seismic region of eastern and central North America and has generated at least six events of M>=6 in the past 100 years. It is part of the opening of the North Atlantic Ocean." (July 7, 2009)

 

Forecast 163077 had expected today's event within about 150 km was likely in mid-May.

 

O: 21MAY2024 05:38:52  73.9N   70.0W MB=4.5  ECAN E OF POND INLET, NU 

O: 21MAY2024 05:38:52  73.9N   69.7W MB=4.5  EMSC   BAFFIN BAY                   

P: 16MAY2024 163077    73.3N   73.5W 2.5-4.3 BAAAA  Baffin/Davis Strait Canada 

 

 

The swarm of light to moderate earthquakes in the Brawley area of Southern California continued today. The largest event in this area today was an M 4.1. Other events in this swarm of M>=4.1 have occurred with M4.6 and 4.8 on February 12, 2024 and before that on December 1, 2023. A similar swarm occurred on April 29 and 30, 2023, a year ago with three events of M 4.3 and one of M 4.1. 

 

NEIC reported today's earthquakes of M 4.1 and M 2.9 in Southern California were felt with intensity up to V in the area(s) of  Southern California in Ocotillo Wells. EMSC reported moderate shaking in El Centro, Julian, El Cajon, Poway, Valley Center, Palm Springs, San Diego, Chula Vista, Escondido, Carlsbad, Oceanside, Fallbrook, San Juan Capistrano, Thousand Oaks, Henderson and in  Baja California, Mexico at Tijuana.

 

Forecast 162979 had expected this activity was likely around May 19.

 

O: 20MAY2024 09:43:35  32.9N  115.5W ML=2.2  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 20MAY2024 17:29:59  32.9N  115.5W ML=2.3  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 20MAY2024 12:17:35  33.0N  116.0W Mw=4.1  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 20MAY2024 08:43:27  32.9N  115.5W ML=2.8  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA          

P: 19MAY2024 162979    32.4N  115.8W 2.5-4.6 AAAAA  So. California             

 

An unusual earthquake of M 4.0 occurred today off the west coast of North Island. This event occurred near local solar noon and may have been  promoted by strong tidal stresses and/or geomagnetic effects which maximize near this hour. Earthquakes in this region often precede by several days strongest events in South America. Only two earthquakes within about 150 km of this epicenter have been recorded in the past 35 years - of M 4.5 on May 17, 1999 and M 4.5 on December 17, 2003. At the time of the 2003 event this summary noted:

 

 

"A very unusual earthquake occurred in the Auckland area in northeastern New Zealand today and was reported to probably have been felt in the Northland area by the Institute for Geological and Nuclear Sciences (GNS). This earthquake of M 4.4 appears to be the first of M>4 in the area 34-38S 170-175.5E in at least four years and appears to be the strongest shallow event in the region in more than 10 years." (December 17, 2003)

 

Forecast 163116 had expected regional activation in this area and time in mid-May.

 

O: 21MAY2024 01:52:28  36.4S  173.3E ML=4.0  EMSC   OFF W. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z

P: 16MAY2024 163116    39.0S  174.0E 3.0-4.4 BCAAA  North Island, N.Z.         

 

 

STRONG EARTHQUAKE SHAKES FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIANS, ALASKA

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MAY 19, 2024

 

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.0 in the Fox Islands. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to V in Nikolski, Alaska. This is the first earthquake in the U.S. or Canada of M>=6 in the year 2024 to date. The last such earthquake of M>=6 occurred on December 21, 2023 with M 6.1 and prior to that as a M 6.4 on October 16, 2023. Today's earthquake is also the strongest within about  200 km of today's epicenter since an M 6.8 and 6.6 on January 11, 2022. An M 5.0 occurred within minutes of local solar noon and was probably

promoted by strong tidal stresses at this hour.

 

It is likely that this event in the Fox/Andreanof Islands was probably triggered by the major flares and geomagnetic storms of the past week. The geomagnetic storm of May 11-12 was the greatest disturbance in the ionosphere since late October, 2003, more than 20 years ago. This was discussed in this summary at the time as:

 

"It is likely that a major earthquake will occur in the next 10 days most likely in the regions near the geomagnetic equator and/or at high auroral latitudes. Effects with the X5.4 flare today are most likely in the Kurils, Kamchatka, western Alaska and the Aleutians including the Andreanof and Rat Islands and the Kermadec/Tonga/Vanuatu/Fiji/New Zealand areas of the South Pacific." (May 11, 2024)

 

O: 19MAY2024 09:35:24  52.2N  170.9W Mw=6.0  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

O: 19MAY2024 11:21:16  52.2N  170.9W Mw=5.0  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

O: 19MAY2024 19:59:09  52.1N  170.8W MB=4.4  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

P: 20MAY2024 163048    52.3N  171.3W 3.5-4.9 AAAAA  Andreanoff Isls, Aleutians 

 

An earthquake of M 5.2 in Michoacan, Mexico occurred about four minutes after the M 6.0 in the Fox Islands. The mainshock occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses. This epicenter is located along the path of total solar eclipse of April 8 and was probably softened at that time. An M 5.4 occurred about 150 km northwest of today's epicenter on April 21, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.5 in the Jalisco/Michoacan area of Mexico. This is the largest earthquake of M>=5.5 within about 250 km of this epicenter since an M 5.8 and M 5.6 on  September 8, 2023. Other recent earthquakes of M>=5.5 have occurred on July 18, 2023 (M 5.6) and December 22, 2021 with M 6.0. An earthquake occurred north of this in the Gulf of California with M 5.6-5.9 on April 19, 2024. Both of these events occurred near the greatest total eclipse of the sun of April 8 which occurred near 18:00 UT. The area has experienced a series of moderate earthquakes since that eclipse but this is the strongest of this series. It is likely that today's event was promoted by strong tidal stresses with that eclipse as well as those with the full moon alignment of April 23." (April 21, 2024)

 

Forecast 162907 had expected today's activity was likely in Michoacan within  about 75 km was likely around May 19.

 

O: 19MAY2024 14:45:29  17.5N  104.7W ML=4.3  EMSC   OFF COAST OF MICHOACAN, MEXICO

O: 20MAY2024 00:04:43  17.5N  104.7W ML=4.3  EMSC   OFF COAST OF MICHOACAN, MEXICO

O: 19MAY2024 09:39:42  17.6N  104.5W MW=5.2  EMSC   OFF COAST OF MICHOACAN, MEXICO

P: 19MAY2024 162907    18.0N  104.0W 3.5-5.1 AAAAA  Michoacan, Mexico          

 

The series of light to moderate earthquakes also was felt in the Brawley region of Southern California today. NEIC reported these earthquakes of M 2.6, 3.1,  in Southern California were felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of  Southern California in Brawley. A similar swarm occurred last week. Today's activity appears to be related to strong solar flares at the time of its initiation. This was further discussed in the previous issue of this summary in part as:

 

 

"A strong series of minor to moderate earthquakes resumed in southern and Baja California today. NEIC reported these events with magnitude up to 4.0 were being felt up to intensity V with light intensity at Brawley, California. EMSC reported rolling motion in Imperial, California. This sequence began near local solar midnight and re-intensified near local solar noon and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. A similar series of earthquakes in Southern California occurred following an M 4.9 on May 12, 2024 about 50 km south of today's epicenters but these represent a separate series and are not classical aftershocks of the M 4.9 on May 12, 2024." (May 19, 2024)

 

Forecasts 162979 and 162981 had expected this enhanced seismicity in Southern California was likely around May 15-19, 2024.

 

O: 19MAY2024 07:26:52  32.9N  115.5W ML=2.1  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 19MAY2024 07:34:14  32.9N  115.5W ML=2.2  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 19MAY2024 07:50:59  32.9N  115.5W ML=2.2  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 19MAY2024 08:00:50  32.9N  115.6W ML=2.0  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 19MAY2024 08:23:26  32.9N  115.5W ML=2.2  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 19MAY2024 08:25:11  32.9N  115.5W ML=2.0  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 19MAY2024 11:31:26  32.9N  115.5W ML=2.4  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 19MAY2024 11:55:37  32.9N  115.5W ML=2.6  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 19MAY2024 12:57:18  32.9N  115.6W ML=2.0  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 19MAY2024 18:23:31  32.9N  115.5W ML=2.2  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 19MAY2024 19:23:19  32.9N  115.5W ML=2.0  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 19MAY2024 20:59:15  32.9N  115.5W ML=2.7  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 19MAY2024 20:33:54  31.5N  115.6W ML=3.3  EMSC   BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO      

O: 19MAY2024 10:38:40  32.4N  115.2W ML=2.0  EMSC   BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO      

P: 15MAY2024 162981    32.9N  115.6W 2.5-4.5 AAAAA  So. California              

P: 19MAY2024 162979    32.4N  115.8W 2.5-4.6 AAAAA  So. California             

 

An unusually large M 5.0 also occurred today in the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge. It was not reported felt in this remote area. This event occurred near local solar noon and may have been promoted by tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. Stresses associated with the coming new moon will be  strongest near this longitude as noted in this summary:

 

"The full moon will arrive at 13:53 UT on May 23, 2024.  Longitudes which are sub-solar at this time are near 30 West and 150 East. These include the central Atlantic in the west and Japan and much of the eastern Pacific Rim from Kamchatka to New Guinea in the east. These areas may see moderate seismic enhancement over the next seven days to enhanced tidal stresses but other tidally stressed areas may also see increased seismicity at this time." (May 20, 2024)

 

A strong earthquake of M 6.0 occurred about 150 km southwest of today's epicenter in this area of the northern Mid-Atlantic.

 

Forecasts 162927 and 162968 had expected today's activity was likely within about 100 km of this event in mid-May, 2024.

 

O: 19MAY2024 15:33:24  30.5N   41.9W MB=5.0  EMSC   NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE  

P: 12MAY2024 162968    31.0N   41.0W 4.0-5.7 CAAAA  No. Mid-Atlantic Ridge     

P: 16MAY2024 162927    29.0N   43.0W 4.0-6.0 BBAAA  Mid-Atlantic Ridge         

 

An unusual earthquake of M 5.1 also shook southern Xinjiang, China today.

NEIC reported this earthquake of M 5.1 in Southern Xinjiang, China was felt with intensity up to VI in the area(s) of  Southern Xinjiang, China in Kashgar.

EMSC reported it was felt with strong shaking in Kazakhstan at Almaty, Kaskelen, and in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. This is southwest of the M 7.0 in southern Xinjiang of January 22, 2024 and does not appear to be an aftershock of that event. The last similar earthquake in the area of M>=5.1 was an M 5.1 on December 19, 2023. This followed an M 6.0 on January 19, 2020 and may have been an aftershock of that event.

 

Forecast 163014 had expected today's event within about 100 km was likely around May 16.

 

O: 20MAY2024 05:10:22  40.2N   77.1E MW=5.1  EMSC   SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA     

P: 16MAY2024 163014    41.0N   77.0E 4.0-5.7 AAAAA  Kirgizstan/Xinjiang        

 

 

MODERATELY STRONG QUAKE ON GEOMAGNETIC EQUATOR IN PAPUA NEW GUINEA

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MAY 18, 2024

 

 

The largest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.7 in Papua New Guinea. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to V in Rabaul, New Guinea. This event occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and was probably promoted by tidal and geomagnetic stresses which maximize near this hour. This appears to be a regional aftershock of an M 5.4 on May 16, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

"As the geomagnetic storm reduced in intensity today, moderately enhanced seismicity began to appear along the geomagnetic equator. Most notably this occurred in New Guinea in the area of New Ireland with the strongest earthquake of the day and in eastern New Guinea with an M 5.2 three hours earlier. This is the type of seismicity which can be expected several days following major geomagnetic storms. The M 5.4 in New Ireland since an M 5.5 on November 18, 2023 - an aftershock of an M 5.9 and M 6.1 on November, 12 and 13, 2023." (May 16, 2024) At the time

 

Forecasts 162878 and 162876 had expected today's activity in the New Ireland area in mid-May.

 

O: 18MAY2024 14:04:45   3.8S  152.1E MW=5.7  EMSC   NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.   

P: 17MAY2024 162876     5.0S  153.0E 4.0-5.4 ABAAA  New Britain                

P: 17MAY2024 162876     5.0S  153.0E 4.0-5.4 ABBAA  New Britain                

 

An unusually large M 4.7 occurred today in the area west of Portugal in the Azores-Cape St. Vincent Ridge. It was not immediately reported felt in the area. About the same time a green meteorite was photographed over Portugal and was widely view as a bright object. It is believed to have crashed on land in northern Portugal according to internet news sources. This is the strongest earthquake in this area off Portugal within about 300 km since an M 4.7 on February 17, 2020. The last earthquake in this area of M>4.7 occurred on January 9 and 10, 2006 with M 5.3 and M 5.5. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

"The event in the North Atlantic off Portugal occurred near the epicenter of the earthquake which occurred on Nov. 1, 1755 and destroyed much of western Portugal with a tsunami. That earthquake was probably well above M 8.0. The area is therefore capable of much stronger events. The region became active at the end of December when an M 4.4 was felt widely in northwestern Portugal. This is the strongest earthquake located in this region (30-45N 10-20W) by NEIC since an M 6.6 occurred more than 20 years ago on Oct. 17, 1983. The long period of quiet in the area may have been a result of two events of M 8.0 which hit the region on May 26, 1975 and  Feb. 28, 1969. Regional stress may now be building to another strong earthquake in the region." (January 10, 2026)

 

This epicenter is at 104 degrees from the M 7.4 in Taiwan of April 2, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 18MAY2024 20:36:17  38.8N   13.1W MB=4.7  EMSC   AZORES-CAPE ST. VINCENT RIDGE

 

Moderate to moderately large earthquakes also hit oceanic areas today north of Svalbard (M 5.4) and in the Southern East Pacific Rise (M 5.3). The last earthquake of M>=5.4 within about 500 km of this epicenter in the Arctic Ocean north of Svalbard occurred on May 21, 2022 (M 5.8) - the only such event in this region in at least 35 years.

 

O: 19MAY2024 02:31:21  85.2N   12.1E MW=5.4  EMSC   NORTH OF SVALBARD            

 

The event in the Southern East Pacific Rise of M 5.3 was the strongest within about 250 km of that epicenter since an M 5.5 on December 14, 2023.   At the time this summary noted this earthquake which occurred with a major X-class solar flare (strongest in six years) as:

 

"An M 4.9 also occurred today in the southern East Pacific Rise. It was not felt in this remote area. The last event of M>=4.9 within about 300 km of this epicenter occurred on May 8, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.8 in the southern East Pacific Rise. It was not reported felt in this remote area. An earthquake with magnitude M 5.3 hit this region May 3, 2023 but the last event within about 300 km of this epicenter with M>=5.8 was an  M 5.8 on January 1, 2023 and prior to that an M 5.9 on September 7, and an M 6.2 September 4, 2022. The M 6.2 occurred with a major geomagnetic storm at a high latitude - as did today's event ..." (December 14, 2023)

 

Forecast 163124 had expected this event within about 50 km was likely around

May 12, 2024.

 

O: 18MAY2024 23:57:41  55.9S  123.2W MB=5.3  EMSC   SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE   

P: 12MAY2024 163124    56.0S  122.0W 4.0-5.4 CAAAA  Pacific-Antarctic Ridge    

 

A strong series of minor to moderate earthquakes resumed in southern and Baja California today. NEIC reported these events with magnitude up to 4.0 were being felt up to intensity V with light intensity at Brawley, California. EMSC reported rolling motion in Imperial, California. This sequence began near local solar midnight and re-intensified near local solar noon and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. A similar series of earthquakes in Southern California occurred following an M 4.9 on May 12, 2024 about 50 km south of today's epicenters but these represent a separate series and are not classical aftershocks of the M 4.9 on May 12, 2024.  At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"As the geomagnetic storm wound down today, the expected resurgence of global seismicity began. This started with an M 6.4 off the coast of Guatemala and Chiapas, Mexico. Then near local solar noon an earthquake of M 4.9-5.0 occurred in Baja California. This was accompanied by a number of foreshocks and moderate aftershocks." (May 12, 2024)

 

Forecasts 162979 and  162981 had expected these earthquakes were likely within about 10 km were likely around May 15-19, 2024. This activity is at 104 degrees from the M 7.0 of January 22, 2024 and from the M 6.9 in New Guinea of March 23, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Following is a listing of events of M>=3 in Southern California today. A listing of events of M>=2 is located under the "CALIFORNIA" section of this report.

 

O: 18MAY2024 09:18:34  32.9N  115.5W ML=2.9  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 18MAY2024 09:36:37  32.9N  115.5W Mw=3.7  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 18MAY2024 12:38:00  32.9N  115.5W Mw=3.6  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 18MAY2024 12:41:52  32.9N  115.5W Mw=3.5  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 18MAY2024 15:52:12  32.9N  115.5W Mw=3.8  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 18MAY2024 16:30:17  32.9N  115.5W Mw=3.5  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 18MAY2024 19:17:22  32.9N  115.5W Mw=3.6  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 18MAY2024 19:46:16  32.9N  115.6W ML=3.4  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 18MAY2024 23:05:04  32.9N  115.5W Mw=3.9  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 18MAY2024 23:06:34  32.9N  115.5W ML=3.0  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 18MAY2024 23:13:26  32.9N  115.5W Mw=3.7  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 18MAY2024 23:24:09  32.9N  115.5W ML=3.4  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

P: 15MAY2024 162981    32.9N  115.6W 2.5-4.5 BAAAA  So. California              

P: 19MAY2024 162979    32.4N  115.8W 2.5-4.6 AAAAA  So. California             

 

 

The strongest earthquakes in the U.S. or Canada today reached M 4.5. These occurred in the Aleutians of Alaska in the Rat Islands and in the Fox Islands and were not reported felt in these remote areas. The M 4.5 in the Fox Islands occurred within minutes of local solar noon and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. These events continue seismic enhancement in the area of the past several days as illustrated in the previous issue of this summary:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.6 in the

Andreanof Islands, Alaska. It was not reported felt in this remote epicentral area. An earthquake of M 4.9 occurred in the Andreanof Islands about 200 km east of today's epicenter on May 11, 2024 ...

 

"It is likely that a major earthquake will occur in the next 10 days most likely in the regions near the geomagnetic equator and/or at high auroral latitudes. Effects with the X5.4 flare today are most likely in the Kurils, Kamchatka, western Alaska and the Aleutians including the Andreanof and Rat Islands and the Kermadec/Tonga/Vanuatu/Fiji/New Zealand areas of the South Pacific." (May 11, 2024)

 

Further moderate to strong seismic enhancement is likely in the Aleutians and the Kermadec Islands in the next several days." (May 17, 2024)

 

 

Forecasts 163051 and 163059 had expected these events were likely to occur within about 100 km around May 17-19.

 

O: 18MAY2024 23:27:41  52.6N  167.0W MB=4.5  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

P: 19MAY2024 163051    53.5N  167.3W 3.5-4.9 AAAAA  Fox Islands, Aleutians     

 

O: 19MAY2024 03:54:17  50.6N  176.7E MB=4.5  EMSC   RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

P: 17MAY2024 163059    52.0N  176.0E 4.0-5.8 ABAAA  Rat Islands                

 

STRONG EARTHQUAKE IN KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND WITH STRONG SOLAR FLARE

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MAY 17, 2024

 

 

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.8 in the Kermadec Islands, New Zealand. It was not reported felt in this remote area. It appears that it was triggered by Solar Flare Effects (SFE) associated with solar flare #3840 - an M7.2 flare as it occurred within minutes of the peak output of that XRA flare at 20:58 UT (vs peak output of 21:01 UT) and with the major RSP and RBR output of the flare. This earthquake also occurred near local solar noon when SFE would have been most pronounced. As this earthquake occurred near local

solar noon in California, some enhanced seismicity in Baja and California related to this flare is likely in the next day. Initial parameters for this XRA Flare from SWPC are:

 

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

3840       2033   2108      2126   M7.2      (May 17, 2024)   1.0E-01  

 

An earthquake of M 5.8-5.9 occurred about 200 km south of today's epicenter on May 12, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"An earthquake of M 5.9 also occurred in the southern Kermadec Islands of New Zealand today. It was not reported felt in this region. Te last earthquake of M>=5.9 in the Kermadec Islands was an M 6.1 on February 9, 2024. Today's activity in the Kermadec Islands was anticipated in this summary because the region was near local solar noon at the time of the X5.8 flare of May 11.

At the time this summary noted:

 

"Effects with the X5.4 flare today are most likely in the Kurils, Kamchatka, western Alaska and the Aleutians including the Andreanof and Rat Islands and the Kermadec/Tonga/Vanuatu/Fiji/New Zealand areas of the South Pacific." (May 11, 2024)

 

When an M 5.4 foreshock to today's event in the Kermadec Islands occurred northeast of today's epicenter on May 12, this summary noted it as:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.4 in the Kermadec Islands, New Zealand. This epicenter was near local solar noon when the X5.8 flare occurred earlier in the day and was probably promoted by SFE and geomagnetic stresses. In the previous issue of this summary the Kermadec Islands had been pointed to as a possible area of interest in the current geomagnetic storm

 

...

 

While a similar M 5.4-5.5 quake hit the Kermadec Islands on April 25, 2024 the last of significantly larger magnitude in this area was an 6.1 on February 9, 2024" (May 12, 2024). A great earthquake of M 8.1 hit within about 100 km of today's epicenter in the Kermadec Islands on March 4, 2021. Today's event may be an aftershock of that great quake..

 

Forecast 163097 had expected today's event within about 50 km was likely to occur in mid-May, 2024.

 

O: 17MAY2024 20:58:26  29.5S  178.3W MW=5.8  EMSC   KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND

P: 12MAY2024 163097    29.0S  178.0W 4.0-5.7 BAAAA  No. Kermadec Islands       

 

A moderately strong earthquake of M 5.5 also occurred today south of the Philippines in the Celebes Sea. The last earthquake in the Celebes Sea with M>=5.6 was an M 6.1 about 150 km east of this epicenter on April 10, 2021 however an M 5.7 was recorded about 250 km from today's epicenter on November 15, 2023. At the time of the M 6.1 on April 10, 2021 this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.0-6.1 off the north coast of New Guinea. NEIC reported it was felt in Papua New Guinea with intensity II-III at Madang and Mount Hagen.

 

...

 

This epicenter is near the geomagnetic equator and like similar events in the  Celebes Sea and in Java today may have been prompted by the now-concluded strong geomagnetic storm previously identified in this summary

 

...

 

The only events within about 200 km of today's epicenter within the past three years occurred as an M 6.3 on February 7, 2021 and an M 6.2 on January 17, 2019." (April 10, 2021)

 

Today's event in the Celebes Sea occurred on the geomagnetic equator following the strongest geomagnetic storm since October, 2003 and was probably promoted by effects from that storm as expected in previous issues of this summary for example as:

 

"It is likely that a major earthquake will occur in the next 10 days most likely in the regions near the geomagnetic equator and/or at high auroral latitudes. Effects with the X5.4 flare today are most likely in the Kurils, Kamchatka, western Alaska and the Aleutians including the Andreanof and Rat Islands and the Kermadec/Tonga/Vanuatu/Fiji/New Zealand areas of the South Pacific." (May 11, 2024)

 

 

Forecasts 162865 and 162592 had expected enhanced seismicity along the geomagnetic equator within about 10 km of today's epicenter was likely in mid-May.

 

 

 

O: 18MAY2024 06:26:09   3.9N  123.0E MW=5.5  EMSC   CELEBES SEA                  

P: 10MAY2024 162592     4.0N  123.0E 4.0-5.4 CAAAA  Mindanao, Philippines      

P: 16MAY2024 162865     5.0N  124.0E 4.0-5.4 ABAAA  Mindanao, Philippines      

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.3 in the Rat Islands, Aleutians, Alaska. It was not reported felt in this remote area. It is near the same longitude as the M 5.8 in the Kermadec Islands (see above). An earthquake of M 4.6 hit the Andreanof Islands east of this in the Andreanof Islands yesterday. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.6 in the

Andreanof Islands, Alaska. It was not reported felt in this remote epicentral area. An earthquake of M 4.9 occurred in the Andreanof Islands about 200 km east of today's epicenter on May 11, 2024 ...

 

"It is likely that a major earthquake will occur in the next 10 days most likely in the regions near the geomagnetic equator and/or at high auroral latitudes. Effects with the X5.4 flare today are most likely in the Kurils, Kamchatka, western Alaska and the Aleutians including the Andreanof and Rat Islands and the Kermadec/Tonga/Vanuatu/Fiji/New Zealand areas of the South Pacific." (May 11, 2024)

 

Further moderate to strong seismic enhancement is likely in the Aleutians and the Kermadec Islands in the next several days." (May 17, 2024)

 

Forecast 163047 had expected today's event within about 50 km was likely around

May 17.

 

O: 17MAY2024 18:54:35  51.7N  179.5E ML=4.3  EMSC   RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

P: 19MAY2024 163047    51.6N  180.0E 3.5-5.2 AAAAA  Andreanoff Isls, Aleutians 

 

The current enhanced seismicity in the South Atlantic Geomagnetic Anomaly continued today with an M 4.9 in the Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge and an M 4.8  in the area of Tristan da Cunha. This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 5.3 on December 15, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"A series of three moderate to large earthquakes occurred in the area of the South Atlantic today in the general area of Tristan da Cunha. These events of M 6.0, 5.3 and 5.3 occurred in an area where tidal stresses with the new moon were strong and may have been promoted from tidal stresses. They also occurred at a maximum of the current geomagnetic storm (Kp was 6 at high latitudes at 20:00 UT today). This area is often considered the third geomagnetic pole of the earth in an area called the "South Atlantic Anomaly" where the geomagnetic field behaves in unusual ways. Planes and satellites experience geomagnetic anomalies in this area and often must be routed around the area to avoid complications from mal-functioning instruments and/or sudden changes in orbital altitude due to geomagnetic field changes and accompanying ionospheric density changes.

 

...

 

The last earthquake in the region of Tristan da Cunha with M>=6 occurred as a M 7.0 on June 17, 2015 and prior to that as an M 6.5 on February 16, 2005." (December 15, 2023)

 

In the previous issue of this summary this regional activation had been noted as:

 

"Unusual seismicity also continued today near the South Atlantic geomagnetic anomaly. An M 4.9 near the center of this anomaly occurred today in the southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge. This is the strongest earthquake within about 300 km of this epicenter since an M 5.0 on December 15, 2023. The last earthquake in this area with significantly larger magnitude was an M 5.5 on March 3, 2023 about 200 km north of today's epicenter. A similar event of M 5.3 occurred north of this on May 15, 2024" (May 17, 2024) and

 

O: 17MAY2024 07:00:36  32.3S   13.9W MB=4.9  EMSC   SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE  

O: 18MAY2024 04:18:31  35.1S   15.6W MB=4.8  EMSC   TRISTAN DA CUNHA REGION      

 

SOLAR FLARES CONTINUE TO AFFECT GLOBAL SEISMICITY

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MAY 16, 2024

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.6 in the

Andreanof Islands, Alaska. It was not reported felt in this remote epicentral area. An earthquake of M 4.9 occurred in the Andreanof Islands about 200 km east of today's epicenter on May 11, 2024 but the last with M>=4.6 within 200 km  was an M 4.7 on December 20, 2023. The last such event of M>4.7 was an M 5.3 on June 13, 2023. This epicenter is at a high latitude and at a longitude which was sub-solar when several X-class flares have occurred in the past week including an X5.8 on May 11, 2024. At the time of this flare this summary noted its likely effect on Alaskan seismicity as:

 

"A major solar flare occurred today with X5.8. Following is the data from

SWPC for this flare:

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

1680       0110   0123      0139   X5.8      (May 11, 2024)   6.4E-01  

 

It was followed at the end of the flare by an M 4.6 earthquake in Southern Alaska. This earthquake was reported by EMSC to have been felt with light to moderate intensity in Southern Alaska at Anchor Point and Anchorage.

 

This event occurred near local noon in Alaska and was probably triggered by SFE from this X5.8 flare. NEIC reported this earthquake in Southern Alaska was felt with intensity up to IV in Anchor Point, Alaska. The last earthquake in Southern Alaska within about 200 km of this epicenter with M>=4.6 occurred on December 16, 2023 also with M 4.6-4.7. The last such event in the area of significantly larger magnitude was an M 5.0 on July 28, 2023." (May 11, 2024)

 

and

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.4 in the Kermadec Islands, New Zealand. This epicenter was near local solar noon when the X5.8 flare occurred earlier in the day and was probably promoted by SFE and geomagnetic stresses. In the previous issue of this summary the Kermadec Islands had been pointed to as a possible area of interest in the current geomagnetic storm as:

 

"It is likely that a major earthquake will occur in the next 10 days most likely in the regions near the geomagnetic equator and/or at high auroral latitudes. Effects with the X5.4 flare today are most likely in the Kurils, Kamchatka, western Alaska and the Aleutians including the Andreanof and Rat Islands and the Kermadec/Tonga/Vanuatu/Fiji/New Zealand areas of the South Pacific." (May 11, 2024)

 

Further moderate to strong seismic enhancement is likely in the Aleutians and the Kermadec Islands in the next several days. Forecast 163047 had expected today's event within about 50 km was likely around May 17.

 

O: 16MAY2024 15:22:24  51.3N  179.1W MB=4.6  EMSC   ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS

P: 17MAY2024 163047    51.2N  179.9W 3.5-5.2 AAAAA  Andreanoff Isls, Aleutians 

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today also occurred near the International Date Line (IDL). This was an M 5.4 in the Fiji Islands. It was not reported felt in this remote area. Forecast 163102 had expected this event was likely around May 19, 2024.

 

O: 16MAY2024 07:29:20  20.6S  178.6W MW=5.4  EMSC   FIJI REGION                  

P: 19MAY2024 163102    20.0S  176.0W 4.0-5.8 BABAA  Tonga Islands              

 

An event of M 5.4 also occurred on the geomagnetic equator today in the area of New Ireland. This event was summarized in the previous issue of this summary as:

 

"As the geomagnetic storm reduced in intensity today, moderately enhanced seismicity began to appear along the geomagnetic equator. Most notably this occurred in New Guinea in the area of New Ireland with the strongest earthquake of the day and in eastern New Guinea with an M 5.2 three hours earlier. This is the type of seismicity which can be expected several days following major geomagnetic storms. The M 5.4 in New Ireland since an M 5.5 on November 18, 2023 - an aftershock of an M 5.9 and M 6.1 on November, 12 and 13, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.1 in Papua New Guinea. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Rabaul, PNG. This occurred within about 1.5 hours of the new moon and may have been promoted by tidal stresses with that alignment (see above). It continues strong sequence of moderate earthquakes in the region

 

...

 

The last earthquake of M>=6 in the New Ireland region within about 250 km of today's epicenter was an M 6.3 on November 30, 2021." (November 11, 13, 2023, March 7, 2023)

 

 

NEIC reported this earthquake of M 5.4 in New Guinea was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of  New Guinea at Rabaul." (May 16, 2024)

 

Forecasts 162878 and 162876 had expected enhanced seismicity in the region of New Ireland and New Britain was likely in mid-May.

 

O: 16MAY2024 06:31:37   3.8S  151.6E MW=5.4  EMSC   NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.   

P: 13MAY2024 162878     6.0S  151.0E 4.0-5.4 BCAAA  New Ireland                

P: 17MAY2024 162876     5.0S  153.0E 4.0-5.4 ABBAA  New Britain                

 

An unusual earthquake of M 3.8 also occurred today in the region of Tennessee.

NEIC reported this earthquake of M 3.9 in Tennessee was felt with intensity up to V in the area(s) of  Tennessee in Ridgely. The last earthquake in Tennessee with M>=3.8 within about 100 km of this epicenter occurred on April 2, 2015 with M 4.0.  This epicenter was directly under the path of the total solar eclipse of April 8, 2024 and has been suggested in this summary to have been provoked by tidal stresses with that eclipse as:

 

"An M 2.8 was also recorded on April 12, 2024 in the New Madrid region of

Missouri.  NEIC reported this earthquake of M 2.8 in Missouri was felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of  Missouri in Risco.  The total eclipse was seen at this epicenter at 19:00 UT on April 8 lasting 4 minutes and 11 seconds. This is a seismic area but the last earthquake of M>=2.8 in this area south of Saint Louis, Missouri within about 100 km of today's epicenter occurred as an M 3.3  half a year ago on December 21, 2023. More such activity is likely in the New Madrid, Missouri, area in the next week." (April 12, 2024)

 

Forecast 162963 had expected today's event was likely in Tennessee within about 50 km of today's epicenter around May 16.

 

O: 16MAY2024 08:19:34  36.2N   89.5W MW=3.8  EMSC   TENNESSEE                    

O: 16MAY2024 08:19:34  36.2N   89.5W mw=3.8  ANSS   km S of Ridgely

P: 16MAY2024 162963    36.0N   89.0W 2.0-4.0 AAAAA  New Madrid area            

 

Moderate earthquakes also continued near the east coast of Honshu, Japan today with events including an M 4.6 and 3.7 felt in the area today. These are not unusual events but the area of Honshu, Japan has been discussed in previous issues of this summary as showing strong seismic sensitivity to major solar X-class flares and geomagnetic storms especially in the region of today's events. Stronger seismic enhancement is still likely in this region as X-class flares continue at this time.

 

Forecasts 162990 and 162973 had expected today's events were likely in mid-May.

 

O: 16MAY2024 13:18:30  39.6N  142.1E ML=3.7  EMSC   NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU,   

P: 19MAY2024 162990    38.0N  145.0E 4.0-5.6 BBBAA  So. of Honshu              

 

O: 16MAY2024 16:15:27  37.5N  141.5E MB=4.6  EMSC   NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU,   

P: 16MAY2024 162973    37.0N  141.0E 4.0-5.5 AAAAA  Off East Coast Honshu      

 

Unusual seismicity also continued today near the South Atlantic geomagnetic anomaly. An M 4.9 near the center of this anomaly occurred today in the southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge. This is the strongest earthquake within about 300 km of this epicenter since an M 5.0 on December 15, 2023. The last earthquake in this area with significantly larger magnitude was an M 5.5 on March 3, 2023 about 200 km north of today's epicenter. A similar event of M 5.3 occurred north of this on May 15, 2024 and was discussed in this summary as:

 

"Moderate sized earthquake of M 5.3 hit in the world's southern Oceans today.

An event occurred in the southern Mid-Atlantic Ocean. This epicenter is near the South Atlantic geomagnetic anomaly and was likely triggered by SFE from today's X-class solar include an X2.1 (#3210) that occurred earlier in the day while this epicenter was near solar noon, a time when SFE are most likely to enhance seismicity. The last earthquake within about 300 km of today's epicenter with M>=5.3 occurred about 250 km to the west of today's epicenter on November 12 and 13, 2021 with M 5.8 and 5.5. At the time this summary noted:

  

 

"The strongest earthquake recorded today was an M 5.7 in the Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge near the geomagnetic equator. It was probably enhanced by the recent geomagnetic storm and effects from tides as it occurred within  minutes of local solar midnight, a time when such tidal stresses maximize. This is the strongest earthquake within about 300 km of this epicenter in at least 30 years. A series of three events of M 5.7 hit the area about 300 km south of this in 2013, 2010 and 1999." (November 12, 2021)

 

O: 17MAY2024 07:00:36  32.3S   13.9W MB=4.9  EMSC   SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE  

 

 

EARTHQUAKES STRENGTHEN ALONG GEOMAGNETIC EQUATOR

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MAY 15, 2024

 

As the geomagnetic storm reduced in intensity today, moderately enhanced seismicity began to appear along the geomagnetic equator. Most notably this occurred in New Guinea in the area of New Ireland with the strongest earthquake of the day and in eastern New Guinea with an M 5.2 three hours earlier. This is the type of seismicity which can be expected several days following major geomagnetic storms. The M 5.4 in New Ireland since an M 5.5 on November 18, 2023 - an aftershock of an M 5.9 and M 6.1 on November, 12 and 13, 2023. At the time

this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.1 in Papua New Guinea. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Rabaul, PNG. This occurred within about 1.5 hours of the new moon and may have been promoted by tidal stresses with that alignment (see above). It continues strong sequence of moderate earthquakes in the region

 

...

 

The last earthquake of M>=6 in the New Ireland region within about 250 km of today's epicenter was an M 6.3 on November 30, 2021." (November 11, 13, 2023, March 7, 2023)

 

 

NEIC reported this earthquake of M 5.4 in New Guinea was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of  New Guinea at Rabaul.

 

Forecasts 162878 and 162876 had expected today's activity in the New Ireland area in mid-May.

 

O: 16MAY2024 06:31:37   3.8S  151.6E MW=5.4  EMSC   NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.   

P: 13MAY2024 162878     6.0S  151.0E 4.0-5.4 BCAAA  New Ireland                

P: 17MAY2024 162876     5.0S  153.0E 4.0-5.4 ABBAA  New Britain                

 

O: 16MAY2024 03:48:01   7.1S  148.4E MW=5.2  EMSC   EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G

P: 14MAY2024 162878     7.0S  150.0E 4.0-5.4 AABAA  New Ireland                 

 

A moderate earthquake of M 5.2 also occurred along the geomagnetic equator today

in Central Peru.  NEIC reported this earthquake of M 5.2 in Peru was felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of  Peru at Santiago.

EMSC reported light shakiing in Chorrilos, Peru.

 

Forecast 163080 had expected this event was likely within about 50 km around

May 19.

 

O: 16MAY2024 05:13:55  14.4S   76.1W MW=5.2  EMSC   NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU   

P: 19MAY2024 163080    14.0S   76.0W 4.0-5.6 BAAAA  Central Peru               

 

The strongest earthquake today in the U.S. or Canada was an M 4.1-4.3 in Central Alaska. NEIC reported this earthquake of M 4.3 in Central Alaska was felt with intensity up to V in the area(s) of  Central Alaska in Susitna North.  EMSC reported moderate shaking in Central Alaska at Willow and Eagle River. This earthquake occurred near local solar midnight shortly after an X3.4 solar flare and was probably promoted by SFE associated with flare #3160 (see flare list below). The last earthquake of M>=4.3 within about 150 km of today's epicenter was an 4.6 on February 23, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquakes in the U.S. or Canada today appear to have been

 triggered events in Alaska. An M 4.4 in Central Alaska was at a longitude at which the X6.3 solar flare occurred at local solar noon, a time when Solar Flare Effects (SFE) maximize." (February 23, 2024)

 

Forecast 162795 had expected seismic activity within this area would likely be enhanced around May 10.

 

O: 15MAY2024 11:16:36  62.3N  149.2W MW=4.1  EMSC   CENTRAL ALASKA               

O: 15MAY2024 11:16:36  62.3N  149.2W MW=4.3  ANSS   CENTRAL ALASKA               

O: 15MAY2024 16:58:28  63.5N  151.4W ML=3.4  EMSC   CENTRAL ALASKA               

P: 10MAY2024 162795    63.3N  147.5W 3.2-4.9 BAAAA  Central Alaska             

 

Moderate sized earthquake of M 5.3 hit in the world's southern Oceans today.

An even occurred in the southern Mid-Atlantic Ocean This epicenter is near the South Atlantic geomagnetic anomaly and was likely triggered by SFE from today's X-class solar include an X2.1 (#3210) that occurred earlier in the day while this epicenter was near solar noon, a time when SFE are most likely to enhance seismicity. The last earthquake within about 300 km of today's epicenter with M>=5.3 occurred about 250 km to the west of today's epicenter on November 12 and 13, 2021 with M 5.8 and 5.5. At the time this summary noted:

  

 

"The strongest earthquake recorded today was an M 5.7 in the Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge near the geomagnetic equator. It was probably enhanced by the recent geomagnetic storm and effects from tides as it occurred within  minutes of local solar midnight, a time when such tidal stresses maximize. This is the strongest earthquake within about 300 km of this epicenter in at least 30 years. A series of three events of M 5.7 hit the area about 300 km south of this in 2013, 2010 and 1999." (November 12, 2021)

 

The last event within about 200 km of today's epicenter with M>=5.3 occurred as an M 5.4 on March 15, 2015, the only such event in the past 35 years in the region.

 

 

O: 15MAY2024 22:14:20  26.4S   11.4W MB=5.3  EMSC   SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE  

 

The other event in the southern oceans of M 5.3 - in the mid-Indian Ridge – was not reported felt in this remote area. This appears to be a regional aftershock of events of M 6.0 and M 5.7 on April 26 and April 21, 2024 respectively.

At that time this summary noted:

 

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.0 in the South Indian Mid-ocean Ridge. Several moderate aftershocks followed the mainshock. The last earthquake of equal or greater magnitude within about 300 km of this epicenter in the Central mid-Indian Ridge occurred as an M 6.1 on April 12, 2020. The only early of significantly larger magnitude in this area in the past 35 years was an M 6.4 on October 4, 2013. ...

 

Today's epicenter is at the antipode of the path of the total solar eclipse of April 8, 2024 across North America near Missouri, Kansas and Oklahoma and may have been promoted by tidal energy associated with that eclipse and the full moon of April 23. A series of minor earthquakes have occurred along the eclipse Path in North America in the past two weeks. At least two other moderate earthquakes have also occurred at antipodal positions to the eclipse in the past 10 days - in the South Indian Ridge and south of Australia. Today's M 6.0 in the Indian Ocean is the strongest earthquake to date associated with the April 8 eclipse." (April 26, 2024)

 

 

Forecast 162846 had expected today's event within about 150 km was likely in early May, 2024.

 

O: 15MAY2024 20:38:38  36.8S   78.5E MW=5.3  EMSC   MID-INDIAN RIDGE             

P:  3MAY2024 162846    38.0S   79.0E 4.0-5.9 CBAAA  So. Indian Ocean           

MODERATELY STRONG QUAKE IN PUERTO RICO TRIGGERED BY MAJOR SOLAR FLARE

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MAY 14, 2024

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. Canada or posessions today was an M 5.6

in the area of Puerto Rico. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity V in Puerto Rico at San Antonio. A foreshock of M 3.4 occurred in Dominican Republic and was felt with intensity II in Punta Cana. EMSC reported this earthquake was felt with moderate to strong intensity in Puerto Rico at Aguadilla, Jobos, Isabela, Moca, Rincon, Hato Arriba, Anasco, Carreras, Arecibo, Mayaguez, Las Marias, Guanajibo, Maricao, Ciales, Rio Arriba Saliente, Jayuya, Dorado, Ponce, Canas, Villalba Arriba, Quinto, Bayamon, San Juan Antiguo, San Juan, Comerjo, Aguas Buenas,   and in the Dominican Republic at Punta Cana, Santa Domingo, and Puerto Plata at the time of the flare. The area of Puerto Rico where the M 5.6 occurred later in the day was at sub-solar conditions at the beginning of flare 3010  (sun directly overhead at local solar noon. This is the strongest flare observed on the sun  since an X9.3 on September 6, 2017. This sub-solar position at the time of this major flare suggests strongly that the flare directly triggered conditions at the Puerto Rico epicenter that led to the M 5.6 several hours later. Today's earthquake in Puerto is the largest in that region since an M 6.4 on January 7, 2020 about 200 km southeast of today's epicenter. The last of larger magnitude in northern Puerto within about 200 km of today's epicenter was an M 6.0 on September 24, 2019. An earthquake of M 5.0, the only such event of M>=5 in the past 3 years in Puerto Rico occurred on November 17, 2022. At the time of the M 6.0 in September, 2019 this summary noted:

 

 

 

"NEIC reported the mainshock (in 2019) was felt with maximum intensity V in Puerto Rico at San Antoniom Quebradillas, IV in Aguadilla, Isabela, Aguada, Rincon, Camuy, and Anasco and within about 200 km of the epicenter in the Puerto Rico trench. A series of moderate aftershocks including an M 5.0 and 4.4 were felt in a similar area. An aftershock of M 4.3 was felt in Puerto Rico with maximum intensity V in Camuy and Hatillo; IV in Isabela, Quebradillas, Aguada, Rincon and Mayaguez and II-III in Aguadilla, Moca and San Sebastian among others. The aftershocks suggest that the activity is not over and that the M 6.0 may not have used up the available seismic energy in the trench. It has been nearly 75 years since a strong tsunami hit in this area but such an event remains a possibility. Built structures could be vulnerable to a strong tsunami such as that in 1946. Thanks in large part to international and governmental efforts, the potential for a large tsunami in the area has been recognized and preparations for such an event have been made.

 

The last earthquake of M>=6.0 in the region of Puerto Rico was an M 6.4 on January 13, 2014 - the only such event in the region in the past 30 years. Strong or major earthquakes have been historically common in the region of Puerto Rico but not in recent years. The last such events prior to 2014 had occurred in June, 1989 and June 1948 with M 6.4 and 6.6. The last major event was an M 7.1 on August 3, 1961 and the last great tsunamigenic quake occurred on August 8, 1946." (September 24, 2019)

 

Forecasts 162916 and 162922 had expected today's activity in Puerto Rico was likely within about 100 km of this epicenter around May 17-18, 2024.

 

O: 15MAY2024 00:30:09  19.2N   67.5W ML=5.6  EMSC   PUERTO RICO REGION           

P: 17MAY2024 162916    18.0N   67.0W 3.4-5.3 ABAAA  Puerto Rico                

P: 18MAY2024 162922    20.0N   67.0W 3.0-4.7 BAAAA  Bahamas/No. Caribbean      

 

Other earthquakes which occurred near the beginning of Flare 3010 at near local solar noon occurred with M 4.4 in St. Lucia, Windward Islands and along the  Peru-Ecuador Border and were probably triggered by initial effects of  that flare which was near over head and subsolar in near Puerto Rico and St. Lucia when the flare occurred. The earthquake in St. Lucia is the largest within  about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 5.1 about 200 km east of today's epicenter on April 30, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

"A major M9.5 to X1.0 solar flare occurred late on April 30 and early on May 1, 2024. This flare caused widespread radio blackouts in the Pacific region.

The last solar flare of equal or greater energy was an X1.1 (#9360) on March 28, 2024 several days before the M 7.4 earthquake in Taiwan.

 

...

 

 

A moderate earthquake of M 5.1 occurred east of the Barbados today. NEIC reported it was felt lightly in Crane, Barbados. The last earthquake of M>=5.1 in Barbados occurred on November 28, 2023 also with M 5.1 but the last of larger magnitude was an M 5.5 on March 29, 2021" (April 30, 2024)

 

An earthquake of M 4.3 hit the St. Lucia the area on March 8, 2022 - the only such in  St. Lucia in the past 3 years..

 

Forecast 162900 had expected enhanced seismicity in this area was likely around

May 19.

 

O: 14MAY2024 16:54:55  14.0N   60.1W MW=4.4  EMSC   ST. LUCIA REGION, WINDWARD ISL

P: 19MAY2024 162900    16.0N   60.0W 3.0-5.1 BBAAA  Leeward Islands            

 

O: 14MAY2024 16:39:53   2.9S   77.8W ML=4.4  EMSC   PERU-ECUADOR BORDER REGION   

P:  6MAY2024 162599     2.0S   78.0W 4.0-5.6 CAAAA  Ecuador                    

P: 15MAY2024 162872     1.0S   78.0W 4.0-5.5 ABAAA  Ecuador                    

 

A moderately strong earthquake also occurred today in Papua New Guinea. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to IV in Kimbe, PNG. This earthquake occurred towards the end of flare 3010 and was likely promoted by SFE associated with that great Solar Flare. Preliminary data for this flare from SWPC follow:

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

3010       1640   1651      1728   X8.7      (May 14, 2024)   5.6E-01  

 

This is probably an aftershock of an M 6.5 in New Britain of April 14, 2024. A strong aftershock hit the region on May 1, 2024. At the time this summary noted the coincidence of this event with the X1.0 flare of late April 30. That flare occurred one day earlier while this region was near local solar noon and was probably promoted by SFE from that flare.

 

Forecast 162878 had expected enhanced seismicity in this area within about 100 km was likely around May 13-14.

 

 

O: 14MAY2024 17:15:49   5.6S  150.1E MW=5.6  EMSC   NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.   

P: 13MAY2024 162878     6.0S  151.0E 4.0-5.4 AAAAA  New Ireland                

P: 14MAY2024 162878     7.0S  150.0E 4.0-5.4 ABAAA  New Ireland                

 

An M 5.4 and an aftershock of  M 5.1 occurred today on the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge. These followed strong flares and may have been promoted by SFE. Events at high latitudes are often associated with strong geomagnetic storms which are maximized in polar regions.

 

 

O: 14MAY2024 15:43:52  54.8S  129.5W mb=5.1  EMSC   PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

O: 14MAY2024 15:08:00  54.9S  129.2W MB=5.4  EMSC   PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE      

 

An M 4.0 earthquake also occurred in northern California today. NEIC reported this earthquake of M 4.0 in Northern California was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of  Northern California in Blue Lake. This earthquake occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses combined with the strong geomagnetic storm of the past several days. Following is SWPC data for a moderately strong solar flare (3150) that was in progress when this earthquake in California occurred.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

3150       0620   0625      0629   C5.7      (May 15, 2024)   2.5E-03      

 

The last earthquake of M>=4 in this region  of California was an M 4.3 on January 20, 2023 - an aftershock of an M 5.4 about 50 km south of today's epicenter. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada outside Alaska today was an M 4.3 in Northern California. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity V in Orick with IV in Orleans and Salyer, California. Intensity II-III was also felt in California at Trinidad, Hoopa, Blue Lake, McKinleyville, Willow Creek, Arcata, Bayside. This followed a similar event of M 3.6 which was felt in Northern California with intensity II-III in Trinidad, Hoopa, McKinleyville, Orick, Arcata, Eureka and Fortuna. This earthquake of M 4.3 occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and was probably triggered by strong tidal stresses with the new moon which maximize near this hour. The Foreshock of M 3.6 occurred within minutes of local solar noon and was also likely triggered by high tidal stresses.  This appears to be  a regional aftershock of the M 6.4 a month ago in Northern California about  100 km south of this epicenter. The last earthquake of M>=4.3 within northern California and within about 50 km of today's epicenter was an M 5.6 on February 13, 2012. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

 

"This is the strongest earthquake in this region of Northern California in

more than 22 years. The last earthquake within 200 km of larger size was and M 5.9 on February 4, 2010, an aftershock of the M 6.5 off the coast of Northern California which occurred on January 10, 2010. These, in turn were the largest events in this region of California since September 1993." (February 13, 2012, January 20, 2023)

 

Forecast 162959 had expected today's event within about 100 km was likely around May 13, 2024.

 

O: 14MAY2024 22:45:34  39.4N  123.3W ML=3.0  EMSC   NORTHERN CALIFORNIA          

O: 15MAY2024 06:39:03  40.8N  123.9W MW=3.9  EMSC   NORTHERN CALIFORNIA          

O: 15MAY2024 06:39:03  40.8N  123.9W MW=4.0  ANSS   NORTHERN CALIFORNIA          

P: 13MAY2024 162950    39.8N  123.5W 2.5-4.9 AAAAA  Central California         

 

A major solar flare also occurred May 15 at about 08:15 UT (X3.4). This follows a flare on May 14, 2024 from 16:40 UT to 17:30 UT (#3010). Today’s flare of X8.7 class apparently triggered an M 4.4 in Peru; an M 4.4 in Santa Lucia, Caribbean and an M 5.6 in New Britain while it was occurring. The areas of Peru and Santa

Lucia are near local solar noon - with the event in Santa Lucia sub-solar at the time of the flare. The area of Puerto Rico where an M 5.6 occurred later in the day was also at sub-solar conditions at the beginning of this flare (sun directly overhead at local solar noon. This is the strongest flare observed on the sun since an X9.3 on September 6, 2017. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"An X9.3 solar flare occurred today near UT noon. This is the largest flare in the current solar cycle - at least 11 years and the eighth largest in the past 25 years. The last solar flare of X9.0 or higher class occurred as an X9.0 flare on December 5, 2006. The last flare of higher class occurred as an X17.0 on October 28, 2003; an X10 on October 29, 2003 and an X28.0 on November 4, 2003. Solar flares of this class can have unexpected effects on global seismicity. A similar X-flare occurred  in conjunction with the Loma Prieta earthquake of October, 1989 in California. One of the strongest solar flares in recent years occurred on March 11, 1989 with X20. This summary described the flare in October, 2003 as follows:

 

 

"A strong X-class flare occurred around 11:00 UT on October 28. This X18 solar flare is the strongest observed during the current solar cycle. A seismic watch has been declared" (October 28, 2003)

 

and

 

"An extreme event in the geomagnetic field occurred today as the CME from  yesterday's X17-X18 solar flare hit at about 06-07UT on October 29. This summary expects this to have strong repercussions on the seismicity of central Asia and North and South America. Seismic watches currently in effect for these areas have been extended through early November, 2003. The impact of this CME caused the Kp value to raise from quiet to extreme storm within a few minutes. This can have effects from causing strong free earth oscillations to major effects on communications and power grids. The resulting electrical disruptions in the ionosphere and in the earth can lead to triggered seismic activity." (October 29, 2003)

 

The effects of this and the coming geomagnetic storm was published in this summary before the X-class flares occurred in yesterday's issue as"

 

"The geomagnetic field is expected to see severe storm conditions for the next two days. This is associated with particles from a series of M-class solar flares over the past two days. Seismicity, delayed by several days, will probably see several strong events associated with these geomagnetic storms. This is emphasized in the "GEOMAGNETIC" section of this summary as:

 

"Triggering of strong seismicity from the severe geomagnetic storms  today and tomorrow is likely to be delayed due in part to proton storms which along with the electron influx will disrupt ring currents and induced telluric currents. This in turn, will probably dial down seismicity until the ring currents can reform around September 9-12.  Strong seismicity is likely to be promoted 10-15 degrees from the geomagnetic equator and at high auroral latitudes around September 10-13. This is most likely in areas near 90 East and West longitudes including Indonesia and Central America among others. This is a combined effect of weather, geomagnetic and tidal effects associated with the full moon." (September 5-6, 2017) (September 6, 2017)

 

This summary is compatible with the expected effects of today's X8.7 flare.

Preliminary data for today's flare from SWPC are:

 

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

3010       1640   1651      1728   X8.7      (May 14, 2024)   5.6E-01  

 

3160       0815   0832      0911   X3.4      (May 15, 2024)   4.0E-01      

3210       1420   1432      1523   X2.9      (May 15, 2024)   3.6E-01      

 

 

MAJOR SOLAR FLARE LIKELY TO ENHANCE GLOBAL SEISMICITY

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MAY 13, 2024

 

 

A major solar flare occurred today at 16:44 to 17:15 UT (May 14). This flare of X8.7 class apparently triggered an M 4.4 in Peru; an M 4.4 in Santa Lucia, Caribbean and an M 5.6 in New Britain while it was occurring. The areas of Peru and Santa Lucia are near local solar noon - with the event in Santa Lucia sub-solar at the time of the flare. This is the strongest flare observed on the sun  since an X9.3 on September 6, 2017. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"An X9.3 solar flare occurred today near UT noon. This is the largest flare in the current solar cycle - at least 11 years and the eighth largest in the past 25 years. The last solar flare of X9.0 or higher class occurred as an X9.0 flare on December 5, 2006. The last flare of higher class occurred as an X17.0 on October 28, 2003; an X10 on October 29, 2003 and an X28.0 on November 4, 2003. Solar flares of this class can have unexpected effects on global seismicity. A similar X-flare occurred  in conjunction with the Loma Prieta earthquake of October, 1989 in California. One of the strongest solar flares in recent years occurred on March 11, 1989 with X20. This summary described the flare in October, 2003 as follows:

 

 

"A strong X-class flare occurred around 11:00 UT on October 28. This X18 solar flare is the strongest observed during the current solar cycle. A seismic watch has been declared" (October 28, 2003)

 

and

 

"An extreme event in the geomagnetic field occurred today as the CME from  yesterday's X17-X18 solar flare hit at about 06-07UT on October 29. This summary  expects this to have strong repercussions on the seismicity of central Asia and North and South America. Seismic watches currently in effect for these areas have been extended through early November, 2003. The impact of this CME caused the Kp value to raise from quiet to extreme storm within a few minutes. This can have effects from causing strong free earth oscillations to major effects on communications and power grids. The resulting electrical disruptions in the ionosphere and in the earth can lead to triggered seismic activity." (October 29, 2003)

 

The effects of this and the coming geomagnetic storm was published in this summary before the X-class flares occurred in yesterday's issue as"

 

"The geomagnetic field is expected to see severe storm conditions for the next two days. This is associated with particles from a series of M-class solar flares over the past two days. Seismicity, delayed by several days, will probably see several strong events associated with these geomagnetic storms. This is emphasized in the "GEOMAGNETIC" section of this summary as:

 

"Triggering of strong seismicity from the severe geomagnetic storms  today and tomorrow is likely to be delayed due in part to proton storms which along with the electron influx will disrupt ring currents and induced telluric currents. This in turn, will probably dial down seismicity until the ring currents can reform around September 9-12.  Strong seismicity is likely to be promoted 10-15 degrees from the geomagnetic equator and at high auroral latitudes around September 10-13. This is most likely in areas near 90 East and West longitudes including Indonesia and Central America among others. This is a combined effect of weather, geomagnetic and tidal effects associated with the full moon." (September 5-6, 2017) (September 6, 2017)

 

This summary is compatible with the expected effects of today's X8.7 flare. This flare was directly overhead (sub-solar) at about 68 West longitude when it began. Areas near this longitude are most likely to see SFE triggered seismicity

And include areas of Quebec and northeastern U.S; Puerto Rico and northern Caribbean and eastern Caribbean and the west coast of South America. Watch for enhanced seismicity in these regions. Preliminary data for today's flare from SWPC are:

 

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

3010       1646   1651      1718   X8.7      (May 14, 2024)   5.6E-01  

 

An earthquake occurred with M 4.9 today in the Volcano Islands, Japan. It was not reported felt in this remote area. It occurred at the beginning of a strong X1.7 solar flare which began at 02:03 and maximized at 02:09 UT ending at 02:19 UT with flux 1.1e-1 J m-2. An M 4.5 at 02:35 was also likely to have been promoted by SFE from this flare as were moderate events in Northern Peru (M 4.5) at 03:00 UT and Atacama, Chile at 03:18 UT. An M 5.4 hit near this epicenter on April 18, 2024 and an M 6.0 hit the area on February 12, 2024. Today's event is probably an aftershock of those.

 

Forecast 162668 had expected enhanced seismicity in the Volcano Islands was likely in mid-May.

 

 

O: 13MAY2024 19:03:09  23.3N  143.9E mb=4.9  EMSC   VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

O: 14MAY2024 02:09:16  23.1N  143.8E MB=4.7  EMSC   VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

P:  9MAY2024 162668    22.0N  145.0E 4.0-5.5 BBAAA  Volcano Islands            

 

Mount Ibu in north Maluku province in Indonesia erupted today. The eruption sent clouds of ash as high as 16,400 feet into the air. It is located at 1.5N 127.6E and is the second eruption of Ibu since April 2, 2024.

 

 

 

 

STRONG QUAKE IN CHIAPAS; BAJA CALIFORNIA FOLLOWS SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MAY 12, 2024

 

 

As the geomagnetic storm wound down today, the expected resurgence of global seismicity began. This started with an M 6.4 off the coast of Guatemala and Chiapas, Mexico. Then near local solar noon an earthquake of M 4.9-5.0 occurred in Baja California. This was accompanied by a number of foreshocks and moderate aftershocks. This was followed by an M 5.9 in the Kermadec Islands, New Zealand. Each of these had been expected as a consequence of recent X-class solar flares.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

 

The strongest earthquake of the day was an M 6.4 near the Chiapas, Mexico-Guatemala border. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to VII in Brisas Barra de Suchiate, Mexico and in Quetzaltenango, Guatemala. EMSC reported strong shaking in Chiapas, Mexico at Tapachula de Cordova and Aordonez, Huixtla,

and in Guatemala at Mazatenango, Chimaltenango, Ciudad Palmares, Antigua Guatemala, San Lucas Sacatepequez, Residenciales Naciones Unidas, San Jose, Colonia Linda Vista, San Cristobal, Fuentes Del Valle, Guatemala City, Colonia Valles, De Vista Hermosa, and in San Salvador, El Salvador.  The press reported minor damage but no casualties with this strongly felt earthquake. Today's earthquake of M 6.4 is the strongest within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 6.4 on May 17, 2023 but the last of larger magnitude in this area was an M 6.6 on February 1, 2019 and an M 8.1 on September 8, 2017. At the time of the event in September 8, 2017 this summary noted the effect of strong solar flares on the triggering of this event as:

 

 

"A great earthquake of M 8.0 (EMSC) to 8.4 (UNAM) hit the area south of Oaxaca and Chiapas, Mexico today. It was felt widely from Guatemala City to Mexico City and as far north as Belize. This is the first earthquake in the world with M>=8.0 since an M 8.3 in Central Chile on September 16, 2015 and prior to that an M 8.2 on April 1, 2014 in the area of northern Chile. On average there is approximately two years between great earthquakes such as this. The last earthquake of M>=8.0 within about 300 km of today's epicenter occurred on August 6, 1942 and M 8.4 on September 23, 1902 and April 19, 1902. These were M 8.3-8.4 events. This earthquake had been anticipated in previous issues of this report because of several factors including the X9.3 solar flare yesterday, tidal stresses and the severe geomagnetic storms. It occurred within about an hour of local solar midnight, a time when these effects maximize.

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC PROMOTION:

 

The geomagnetic field was at severe storm conditions today.  The AP level was 38. High latitude geomagnetic field saw severe storm conditions with AP at 60.  triggering of strong seismicity from the severe geomagnetic storms  today and tomorrow is likely and includes the M 8.0-8.4 quake in eastern Mexico today.  A flare of X1.3 occurred near UT noon today, This follows two similar quakes yesterday including an X9.3 the first X-class solar flare since an X2.1 on March 11, 2015 and the strongest flare in at least 11 year, the solar cycle period. Strong seismicity is likely to be promoted 10-15 degrees from the geomagnetic equator and at high auroral latitudes around September 10-13. This is most likely in areas near 90 East and West longitudes including Indonesia and Central America among others. This is a combined effect of weather, geomagnetic and tidal effects associated with the full moon. The earthquake today in eastern Mexico appears to confirm this analyses. The planetary K-index reached maximum of 8 today, around 0400 UT on September 8. This is the first time it has reach 8 since  March 17, 2015, two and a half years ago. The simultaneity of this geomagnetic storm and the M8+ at the same time in Chiapas, Mexico is powerful coincidental evidence for a triggering relation as previously noted in this summary on many occasions." (September 8, 2017)

 

With this in mind this summary noted likely enhanced seismicity in this area in the previous issue of this summary as:

 

"Solar Flare 1310 on May 10 occurred at the same time and was also considered likely to promote a strong earthquake in the region of Central America or Mexico, but this event has not yet occurred. The most active areas  of Chiapas, Mexico and Nicaragua have seen moderate quakes associated with the recent strong solar flares and geomagnetic storm. An M 4.5 did occur today off Chiapas, Mexico with a foreshock of M 4.0 six hours earlier. This could be a precursor to a stronger regional earthquake. Forecast 162626, 162895 and 162894 had expected enhanced seismicity in this region was likely within about 50 km of these epicenters around May 9-13." (May 12, 2024) 

 

 

Forecasts 162894 and 162899 had expected today's event within about 100 km  in Chiapas, Mexico around May 11-16, 2024. This activity is at 103 degrees from recent strong earthquakes in the Loyalty Island and at the third node (120 degrees) from the M 7.0 in Xinjiang, China of January 22, 2024 and  was probably promoted by energy from those sources.

 

 

O: 12MAY2024 11:39:11  14.5N   92.3W Mw=6.4  EMSC   OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO

O: 12MAY2024 23:00:03  14.4N   92.5W MB=4.4  EMSC   OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO     

P: 11MAY2024 162894    15.0N   93.0W 3.5-5.5 AAAAA  Chiapas, Mexico            

P: 16MAY2024 162899    14.0N   92.0W 3.5-5.6 BAAAA  Guatemala                  

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.9 in Ethiopia was felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of  Ethiopia at Turmi. This earthquake occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and was probably promoted by strong tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. This area often sees enhanced seismicity with major X-class solar flares and this was likely a major factor in the triggering of this event at this time. The last earthquake with M>=4.9 in Ethiopia within about 300 km of today's epicenter occurred on May 3, 2020 with M 4.9 but the last in this area with significantly larger magnitude was an M 5.2 on September 18, 1993. At the time of an M 5.1 on December 3, 2011 this summary noted:

 

 

“The most unusual earthquake of the day occurred in southern Ethiopia near the Kenyan border with M 5.0. This is the strongest earthquake to hit the area in at least three years. Only one other earthquake of similar or larger magnitude has occurred in this region in the past 22 years, an M 5.3 on September 18, 1993." (December 3, 2011)

 

 

O: 12MAY2024 21:36:11   5.4N   36.8E MB=4.9  EMSC   ETHIOPIA                     

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.9-5.0 in Baja California near the border with California (US), It was widely felt with intensity up to VI in the region of Delta, Baja California, Mexico. EMSC reported light to moderate shaking in Southern California in Calexico, El Centro, Carlsbad, Oceanside, in Arizona at Yuma; Holtville and in Baja California in Mexicali. Numerous foreshocks and aftershocks were felt in the Delta Baja California region of Mexico with light to moderate intensity (II-IV).

The M 4.9 is the strongest earthquake in Baja within about 200 km of this event in more than three years. An M 4.8 hit the same epicenter on March 31, 2021. The series began with a light event of M 2.4 that occurred at the height of the strongest solar flare of the day - an X1.0 which peaked at 16:35 UT. An earthquake of M 3.9 off the coast of Honshu, Japan also occurred with the peak of this X1.0 class flare at 16:37 UT. A similar simultaneity of the foreshock to this event occurred  with M 4.1 on May 8, 2024 and an X-class solar flare. At the time this summary noted this as:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.1 on the  border between Southern California and Baja California. This earthquake was closely associated  with a series of strong solar flares beginning with flare 270 (C9.3) around 01:00 UT and ending with flares 280 and 290 (about 01:15-01:35 UT) - an X1.0 class flare. It is likely it was promoted by SFE from those sources. (May 8, 2024)

 

 

This swarm in Baja California began at the end of flare 2400 - the largest of the day and was probably precipitated by SFE from that flare. SWPC data for this flare follows:

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2400       1611   1626      1638   X1.0      (May 12, 2024)   9.6E-02  

 

Following is a listing of events in this swarm today of M>=3. A more detailed list of events of M>=2 can be found under the "CALIFORNIA" section of this summary.

 

Forecasts 162709 and 162981 had expected this activity in Baja California was likely around May 9-15 within about 50 km of today's epicenters. These epicenters are at 102-104 degrees from recent strong earthquakes in Taiwan of April 2, 2024; New Guinea of March 23, 2024; and Xinjiang China of January 22, 2024 and had been expected as far-field aftershocks of these events as noted with the Taiwan quake of April 2, 2024:

 

 

 

"Far-field earthquake triggering is possible with earthquakes of M 7.5 or greater. In the case of Taiwan, the most likely triggering zones - near 144 degrees and 103 degrees from Taiwan do not contain many areas of high seismicity and far-field triggering is likely to be muted. Following is a listing of potential triggering sites with this earthquake:

 

103 degrees: Southern, Baja California, Utah, Nunuvat, Ontario, Quebec Canada, South Africa, Spain, Morocco, Portugal" (April 2, 2024)

 

O: 12MAY2024 16:35:07  32.4N  115.2W ML=2.4  EMSC   BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO

O: 12MAY2024 17:05:24  32.4N  115.2W ML=2.2  EMSC   BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO

O: 12MAY2024 17:24:04  32.4N  115.2W ML=3.2  EMSC   BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO

O: 12MAY2024 19:04:00  32.3N  115.2W mb=4.5  EMSC   BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO

O: 12MAY2024 18:22:43  32.4N  115.3W Mw=4.9  EMSC   BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO

O: 12MAY2024 18:25:04  32.4N  115.3W ML=3.5  EMSC   BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO

O: 12MAY2024 18:25:54  32.4N  115.2W ML=3.5  EMSC   BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO

O: 12MAY2024 18:26:48  32.4N  115.2W ML=3.1  EMSC   BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO

O: 12MAY2024 18:28:02  32.4N  115.2W ML=3.2  EMSC   BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO

O: 12MAY2024 18:33:44  32.4N  115.3W Mw=4.1  EMSC   BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO

O: 12MAY2024 18:42:03  32.4N  115.3W ML=3.1  EMSC   BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO

O: 12MAY2024 18:45:00  32.4N  115.3W Mw=3.6  EMSC   BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO

O: 12MAY2024 18:53:40  32.4N  115.2W Mw=3.6  EMSC   BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO

O: 13MAY2024 00:04:11  32.4N  115.2W ML=3.2  EMSC   BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO

O: 13MAY2024 04:02:18  32.4N  115.2W Mw=4.2  EMSC   BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO

O: 13MAY2024 04:07:34  32.4N  115.2W ML=3.5  EMSC   BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO

O: 13MAY2024 04:08:16  32.4N  115.2W ML=3.0  EMSC   BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO

P:  9MAY2024 162709    32.6N  116.1W 2.5-4.5 BAAAA  So. California             

P: 11MAY2024 162981    32.8N  116.0W 2.5-4.4 AAAAA  So. California             

P: 15MAY2024 162981    32.9N  115.6W 2.5-4.5 BAAAA  So. California             

 

 

An earthquake of M 4.9 occurred today in the region of the Andreanof Islands, Aleutians, Alaska. The last earthquake of M>=4.9 in the Andreanof Islands occurred as an M 5.0 on February 29, 2024. Like the earthquake (see above) in the Kermadec Islands, this lies at 176-177 West longitude and was near local solar noon when the X5.8 flare occurred on May 11 and was probably promoted by

SFE associated with that flare.

 

Forecast 163058 had expected this earthquake in the Andreanof Islands was likely within about 50 km of this epicenter was likely around May 13.

 

O: 11MAY2024 10:58:54  51.9N  176.0W MB=4.9  EMSC   ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS

P: 13MAY2024 163048    51.7N  176.4W 3.5-4.9 AAAAA  Andreanoff Isls, Aleutians 

 

An earthquake of M 5.9 also occurred in the southern Kermadec Islands of New Zealand today. It was not reported felt in this region. Te last earthquake of M>=5.9 in the Kermadec Islands was an M 6.1 on February 9, 2024. Today's activity in the Kermadec Islands was anticipated in this summary because the region was near local solar noon at the time of the X5.8 flare of May 11. At the time this summary noted:

 

"Effects with the X5.4 flare today are most likely in the Kurils, Kamchatka, western Alaska and the Aleutians including the Andreanof and Rat Islands and the Kermadec/Tonga/Vanuatu/Fiji/New Zealand areas of the South Pacific." (May 11, 2024)

 

When an M 5.4 foreshock to today's event in the Kermadec Islands occurred northeast of today's epicenter on May 12, this summary noted it as:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.4 in the Kermadec Islands, New Zealand. This epicenter was near local solar noon when the X5.8 flare occurred earlier in the day and was probably promoted by SFE and geomagnetic stresses. In the previous issue of this summary the Kermadec Islands had been pointed to as a possible area of interest in the current geomagnetic storm

 

...

 

While a similar M 5.4-5.5 quake hit the Kermadec Islands on April 25, 2024 the last of significantly larger magnitude in this area was an 6.1 on February 9, 2024" (May 12, 2024).

 

Forecast 163117 had expected today's event within about 50 km was likely around May 12, 2024.

 

O: 12MAY2024 18:43:23  31.6S  178.4W MW=5.9  EMSC   KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION      

P: 12MAY2024 163117    31.0S  178.0W 4.0-5.4 AAAAA  So. Kermadec Islands       

 

The occurrence of an M 3.9-4.2 off the coast of Honshu, Japan at the time of the

X1.0 flare and following the beginning of the swarm in Baja California  by two minutes is noted here because large earthquakes are common in today's solar/geomagnetic environment and this could be a precursor to something much larger in the near future in the area of eastern Honshu, Japan.

 

Forecasts 162973 had expected this earthquake off the coast of Honshu, Japan was likely around May 13, 2024.

 

O: 12MAY2024 16:37:10  38.3N  141.6E ML=3.9  EMSC   NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAP

O: 12MAY2024 16:37:10  38.3N  141.6E mb=4.2  ANSS   Onagawa Ch┼ì Japan

P: 13MAY2024 162973    38.0N  140.0E 4.0-5.5 AAAAA  Off East Coast Honshu      

 

 

BMG reported a moderately strong earthquake occurred in Sulawesi, Indonesia today. BMG reported intensity III in Sulawesi Tengah, Balantak, Banggai with II in Balantak. Lesser shaking was reported from Kab. Mongondow, Minahas, Mongondo2, Siau, Biaro, among other regional Kabs. Forecast 162864 had expected enhanced seismicity within about 150 km of today's epicenter was likely around May 14, 2024.

 

O: 13MAY2024 00:28:13   1.0N  123.9E MW=5.8  BMG    MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA

O: 13MAY2024 00:28:13   1.0N  123.9E MW=5.2  EMSC   MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA

P: 14MAY2024 162864     0.0N  123.0E 4.0-5.8 AAAAA  Mindanao, Philippines      

 

An unusual earthquake of M 2.9 occurred today in the area of Hopedale, Newfoundland, Canada. Two earthquakes of M>=2.9 have occurred within about 200 km of this epicenter according to NEIC data in the past 35 years - the last was an M 4.4 on November 4, 2020. Forecast 163065 had expected today's event could occur around May 11 to the north of this epicenter.

 

O: 12MAY2024 02:40:21  55.6N   59.6W MB=2.9  ECAN OF HOPEDALE, NL                

P: 11MAY2024 163065    61.0N   58.0W 2.5-4.1 ACAAA  Baffin/Davis Strait Canada 

 

 

 

EXTREME GEOMAGNETIC STORM AT HIGHEST AP LEVELS IN MODERN TIMES

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MAY 11, 2024

 

An extreme geomagnetic storm has occurred over the past two days. The planetary AP index today  of 273 is  unprecedented in modern times but high latitude and middle latitudes also saw record AP of 208 and 175 respectively. As this storm dies down global seismicity is expected  to rise and possibly include large or major earthquakes.

 

Among early casualties from the continuing geomagnetic storm was the Starlink Satellite system of Musk which has been helpful in communications in war-torn areas such as Ukraine. The web was also out in Florida where aurora were visible for the first time in many years. Florida is too far south for many of the visible effects of geomagnetic storms but AP at middle latitudes today exceeded some of the highest indices at high latitude in recent years and the aurora are now visible this far to the south.

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.4 in the Kermadec Islands, New Zealand. This epicenter was near local solar noon when the X5.8 flare occurred earlier in the day and was probably promoted by SFE and geomagnetic stresses. In the previous issue of this summary the Kermadec Islands had been pointed to as a possible area of interest in the current geomagnetic storm as:

 

"It is likely that a major earthquake will occur in the next 10 days most likely in the regions near the geomagnetic equator and/or at high auroral latitudes. Effects with the X5.4 flare today are most likely in the Kurils, Kamchatka, western Alaska and the Aleutians including the Andreanof and Rat Islands and the Kermadec/Tonga/Vanuatu/Fiji/New Zealand areas of the South Pacific." (May 11, 2024)

 

While a similar M 5.4-5.5 quake hit the Kermadec Islands on April 25, 2024 the last of significantly larger magnitude in this area was an 6.1 on February 9, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"A major solar flare of X3.3 occurred today (#9000 - SWPC). This is the strongest solar flare since an X5.0 on December 31, 2023 and probably had a great influence of the strong pulse of seismicity which followed and is described below. The stresses from this flare as well as those associated with the completion of the new moon tidal alignment today contributed to a strong enhancement of global seismicity especially at 103 degrees from Xinjiang, China today. This seismic enhancement included unusually strong earthquakes in western Los Angeles, California (M 4.7); Hawaii (M 5.7); an M 6.1 in the Kermadec Islands and an M 5.8 in northern Mindanao, Philippines.

 

...

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.1 in the Kermadec Islands, New Zealand. It was not reported felt in this remote area. This event occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. The last earthquake in this region of the Kermadec Islands  with M>=6.1 occurred on April 24, 2023 (M 7.1) and March 16, 2023 (M 7.0)." (February 9, 2024)

 

Forecasts 162839 had expected today's event within about 25 km was likely around May 9, 2024.

 

O: 12MAY2024 03:26:20  30.1S  177.8W MB=5.4  EMSC   KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND

P:  9MAY2024 162839    30.0S  178.0W 4.0-5.6 BAAAA  No. Kermadec Islands       

P:  9MAY2024 162842    31.0S  177.0W 4.0-5.4 BAAAA  So. Kermadec Islands       

P: 12MAY2024 163117    31.0S  178.0W 4.0-5.4 AAAAA  So. Kermadec Islands       

 

Another area which was expected to see enhanced seismicity at this time was Central America. This region was at local solar midnight for two of the largest X-class flares in the past three days and is considered likely to see a strong earthquake at this time as discussed in an earlier issue of this summary:

 

"A major X-class flare of X4.5 occurred early on May 6 around 5:35-7:00 UT maximizing about 6:30 UT. Longitudes most likely to be seismically activated by SFE from this flare are located near 90 West and 90 E and include Central America in the west and Indonesia, Taiwan, Philippines in the East. These are regions most likely to see strong or major events in the next several days related to this flare. Active areas at this time in these longitude bands include the aftershock zone of Taiwan and Central America where a moderately strong to strong earthquake is possible shortly." (May 10, 2024)

 

Solar Flare 1310 on May 10 occurred at the same time and was also considered likely to promote a strong earthquake in the region of Central America or Mexico, but this event has not yet occurred. The most active areas  of Chiapas, Mexico and Nicaragua have seen moderate quakes associated with the recent strong solar flares and geomagnetic storm. An M 4.5 did occur today off Chiapas, Mexico with a foreshock of M 4.0 six hours earlier. This could be a precursor to a stronger regional earthquake. Forecast 162626, 162895 and 162894 had expected enhanced seismicity in this region was likely within about 50 km of these epicenters around May 9-13. 

 

 

O: 11MAY2024 16:32:14  15.4N   93.3W ML=4.5  EMSC   OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO

O: 11MAY2024 18:48:25  15.9N   94.6W ML=4.0  EMSC   OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICO

O: 11MAY2024 10:43:59  15.2N   93.1W ML=4.0  EMSC   OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO     

P:  9MAY2024 162626    16.0N   94.0W 3.5-5.6 AAAAA  Chiapas, Mexico            

P: 11MAY2024 162894    15.0N   93.0W 3.5-5.5 AAAAA  Chiapas, Mexico            

P: 13MAY2024 162895    16.0N   94.0W 3.5-5.5 AAAAA  Chiapas, Mexico            

 

An earthquake in Nicaragua of M 4.7 followed the same pattern described above for the events in Baja related to a strong M-class flare. On May 8, 2024 an M 4.7 occurred near today's epicenter in Nicaragua. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"A series of moderate earthquakes in Guatemala, Nicaragua, Colombia and Ecuador

have occurred in the past two days - most near local solar noon or local solar

midnight.

 

"The most interesting of these was an M 4.7 in Nicaragua which occurred within minutes of local solar noon. This epicenter at 12 North latitude is exactly aub-solar when this event occurred, as is 12N latitude around the world today. This means this epicenter saw the sun at it's zenith as this earthquake occurred. This summary has previously argued that this alignment can promoted sub-solar seismicity. Today's event in Nicaragua also coincided with Solar Flare 520 (M7.9) which maximized at the time of today's earthquake in Nicaragua. (May 8, 2024)

 

 

NEIC reported today's earthquake of M 4.7 in Nicaragua was felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of  Nicaragua in Diriamba.

 

Forecast 162639 had expected this event in Nicaragua was likely around May 9 within  about 100 km of the epicenter.

 

O: 12MAY2024 00:10:48  11.9N   86.3W MB=4.7  EMSC   NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA      

P:  9MAY2024 162639    11.0N   87.0W 3.5-5.8 BAAAA  Nicaragua                  

 

An earthquake of M 4.9 occurred today in the region of the Andreanof Islands, Aleutians, Alaska. The last earthquake of M>=4.9 in the Andreanof Islands occurred as an M 5.0 on February 29, 2024. Like the earthquake (see above) in the Kermadec Islands, this lies at 176-177 West longitude and was near local solar noon  when the X5.8 flare occurred on May 11 and was probably promoted by SFE associated with that flare. Forecast 163058 had expected this earthquake in the Andreanof Islands was likely within about 50 km of this epicenter was likely around May 13.

 

O: 11MAY2024 10:58:54  51.9N  176.0W MB=4.9  EMSC   ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS

P: 13MAY2024 163048    51.7N  176.4W 3.5-4.9 AAAAA  Andreanoff Isls, Aleutians 

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM AND MAJOR SOLAR FLARE WITH MODERATE QUAKE IN SOUTHERN ALASKA

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MAY 10, 2024

 

 

A major solar flare occurred today with X5.8. Following is the data from

SWPC for this flare:

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

1680       0110   0123      0139   X5.8      (May 11, 2024)   6.4E-01  

 

It was followed at the end of the flare by an M 4.6 earthquake in Southern Alaska. This earthquake was reported by EMSC to have been felt with light to moderate intensity in Southern Alaska at Anchor Point and Anchorage.

 

This event occurred near local noon in Alaska and was probably triggered by SFE from this X5.8 flare. NEIC reported this earthquake in Southern Alaska was felt with intensity up to IV in Anchor Point, Alaska. The last earthquake in Southern Alaska within about 200 km of this epicenter with M>=4.6 occurred on December 16, 2023 also with M 4.6-4.7. The last such event in the area of significantly larger magnitude was an M 5.0 on July 28, 2023. Forecasts 162794 and 163068 had expected today's activity within about 50 km was likely around May 5-12.

 

O: 11MAY2024 01:53:04  59.8N  152.9W MB=4.6  EMSC   SOUTHERN ALASKA               

P:  5MAY2024 162794    60.3N  153.0W 3.2-4.9 CAAAA  Central Alaska             

P: 12MAY2024 163068    60.2N  152.7W 3.2-4.9 AAAAA  Central Alaska             

 

An earthquake of M 4.2 also occurred in the Rat Islands, Aleutians, Alaska today. It was not reported felt in this remote epicentral area. This event occurred within minutes of local solar noon and was probably triggered by geomagnetic and tidal stresses associated with the major geomagnetic storm today. Forecasts 162784 and 162772 had expected this activity in the Rat Islands was likely within about 100 km around May 6-9.

 

O: 10MAY2024 23:54:52  51.8N  178.1E MB=4.2  EMSC   RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

P:  6MAY2024 162785    52.0N  179.0E 4.0-5.6 BAAAA  Rat Islands                

P:  9MAY2024 162772    52.1N  180.0E 3.5-5.1 AABAA  Andreanoff Isls, Aleutians 

 

Another event which was probably immediately triggered by SFE from this flare occurred as an M 4.5 in Kamchatka. This epicenter in Kamchatka was within minutes of local solar noon at the peak of the X5.8 flare. EMSC reported this earthquake was felt in Kamchatka, Russia in Vilyuchinsk, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, and Pionerskoye. Forecast 162778 had expected this activity in Kamchatka was likely in early May.

 

O: 11MAY2024 03:37:32  52.5N  159.1E MB=4.5  EMSC   OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA  

P:  6MAY2024 162778    54.0N  159.0E 4.0-5.8 BBAAA  Kamchatka                  

 

An M 4.6 also occurred in Taiwan shortly after the end of this flare. Recent seismicity in Taiwan suggests strong SFE triggering in Taiwan at this time. This activity in Taiwan is probably aftershocks of the M 5.8 which occurred earlier in the day. This was discussed in the previous issue of this summary (in part) as:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.8-6.0 aftershock in Taiwan. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to VI in Hualien City.

 

...

 

This earthquake followed at the end of a major X3.9 class solar flare (#1310) and was probably triggered by Solar Flare Effects (SFE). No major damage was reported by the press but minor damage to structures damaged in previous earthquakes in this area is likely" (May 10, 2024)

 

Forecast 162667 had expected this activity in Taiwan was likely around May 7.

 

O: 10MAY2024 08:10:22  23.9N  121.6E ML=4.2  EMSC   TAIWAN

O: 10MAY2024 23:07:43  23.9N  121.6E ML=4.0  EMSC   TAIWAN

O: 10MAY2024 07:45:19  24.2N  121.9E Mw=5.8  EMSC   TAIWAN

O: 11MAY2024 05:16:02  23.8N  121.7E MW=4.6  EMSC   TAIWAN                       

P:  7MAY2024 162667    23.0N  122.0E 4.0-5.4 BAAAA  Taiwan                     

 

The X5.8 flare was accompanied by a severe geomagnetic storm which occurred today with high latitude AP 146 and Planetary AP 118. KP index was at its highest possible value of 9 around May 10 at 20:00 through May 11 at 04:00 UT. This appears to be the most disturbed the earth's geomagnetic field has been in the current solar cycle. It also includes a proton storm which together should reduce sort-term seismicity but enhance seismicity around May 14-20. It is likely that a major earthquake will occur in the next 10 days most likely in the regions near the geomagnetic equator and/or at high auroral latitudes. Effects with the X5.4 flare today are most likely in the Kurils, Kamchatka, western Alaska and the Aleutians including the Andreanof and Rat Islands and the Kermadec/Tonga/Vanuatu/Fiji/New Zealand areas of the South Pacific. The last time a severe storm hit the geomagnetic field was March 24, 2024 (high latitude AP 100, Planetary AP 64) when this summary noted:

 

"The last time high latitude AP was at 100 or greater was on November 4, 2021 when it reached 131. Planetary AP was 69 on that date.

 

"The last time high latitude AP exceeded 120 was on December 15, 2006 when it hit AP 120 with global AP at 104. The earthquake in 2006 was followed several days later by an M 7.0 in Taiwan. The last time the AP disturbance at high latitudes exceeded today's index of 131 was on September 11-12 (AP 131 and 136).

The storm in September, 2005 was accompanied by an M 7.7 in New Ireland and an M 6.4 in the Nias region of Indonesia. This history suggests that a major earthquake is likely in the next several days. In general, strong geomagnetic storms see major earthquakes at the time of the storm's commencement or about 4-5 days later as the ionospheric ring currents at high latitude and about 10 degrees from the geomagnetic equator reemerge after the disturbance. This often includes a strong to major  earthquake. At this time such an event appears most likely near the geomagnetic equator or at high latitudes ... (November 5, 2021, March 25, 2024)

 

Today's geomagnetic storm is expected to continue for several days. The last time a geomagnetic storm of equal or greater disturbance occurred was on  October 29-30, 2003 when planetary AP reached 189 with high latitude AP 197 and mid-latitude AP 199 on October 29 and 162 planetary AP on October 30, 2003.  The Space weather center has warned of electrical damage to the grid including some blackouts as transformers experience damage from telluric currents. Satellite communication, navigation Radio Communications, Spacecraft and GPS signals are also at risk as this storm continues and more CME's hit the earth environment. The storm of October 2003 cause power outages in Sweden and other areas and damaged transformers as far as South Africa according to SWPC. At the time of the 2003 storm this summary noted:

 

 

"The extremely strong geomagnetic storm which began yesterday continued unabated today and into October 30. This is the strongest storm in many months. The A-index for this storm for October 29 is 197 at high latitudes and 199 at middle latitudes. The planetary index is 189. The indicies for October 30 are likely to be even higher. This is by far the strongest geomagnetic storm of the current solar cycle. A second strong X-class flare also occurred today in the class X10. The following parameters were recorded. The earthquake in Los Angeles followed this flare by about 2 hours." (October 30, 2003)

 

The most immediate earthquake triggered by the storm of late October, 2003 was an M 7.0 off the east coast of Honshu, Japan on October 31, 2003. At the time this summary noted:

 

"A strong earthquake with magnitude between M 6.6 (National Earthquake Information Service - NEIS) and 7.1 (Geological Survey of Russia - GSR) occurred today off the northern coast of eastern Honshu. This event was followed by an M 4.8 and smaller aftershocks. The mainshock was felt lightly along the  eastern coast of Honshu according to CNN. The earthquake shock buildings as far south as Tokyo for as much as 30 second. A minor tsunami of about 30-40 cm height was recorded was recorded. Earthquakes of this size occasionally  trigger tsunamis, but usually trigger landslides which secondarily trigger tsunamis.  An M 7.0 earthquake occurred about 150 km northwest of this epicenter on May 26, 2003. The last event in the general area larger than M 7.1  occurred on November 1, 1989 with M 7.4." (October 31, 2003)

 

This event was particularly noteworthy because it was the strongest precursor of the M 9+ quake off eastern Honshu of March 11, 2011 which, along with a major tsunami killed at least 20,000 and caused major damage in Honshu, Japan, an event and which also was closely associated with major X-class flares and a strong geomagnetic storm. A similar M 6.5-7.0 hit the area on August 16, 2005. Honshu, Japan is particular prone to geomagnetic triggering. It is also  noteworthy that the X5.8 flare today coincided with the geomagnetic storm. This is likely to delay the occurrence of major earthquakes be several days. That earthquake was also accompanied by a strong geomagnetic storm as  noted in the summary at that time:

 

 

"A strong earthquake of M 6.7-7.2 hit the region of east-central Honshu, Japan today. This is the strongest event in the region (34-40N 135-145E) since similar earthquakes hit near this epicenter on May 26 and Oct. 31, 2003.

 

...

 

A strong geomagnetic change in the perpendicular field began at the time of this earthquake as registered by the GOES-12 satellite. This geomagnetic excursion was accompanied by a moderate geomagnetic storm which began between 02:45 UT (the earthquake in Honshu occurred at 02:46 UT). The geomagnetic storm appears to be linked to a sudden increase in long wavelength solar X-ray Flux which experienced a strong 15% increase in the period  between 02:46 and 02:50 UT according to GOES-12 data. The effect of this would have been at maximum over the epicenter which was within a few minutes of solar noon-time at the time of the quake (solar noon was at 140E longitude) at the time of the earthquake. Maximum solar effects occur at longitudes at solar noon or solar midnight." (August 16, 2005)

 

Other strong earthquake occurred with this storm on November 2, 2003 in South Island, New Zealand (M 6.4); Colombia (M 6.0, November 5, 2003); Loyalty Islands (M 6.6 November 6, 2003); Central Mid-Atlantic (M 6.6 November 9, 2003); Kermadec Islands (November 11, 2003, M 6.1-6.2 series); among others.  A similar series is expected in the next week following the current geomagnetic storm.

 

The strongest earthquake to occur in connection with this storm was an M 7.8 in the Rat Islands, Aleutians, Alaska which occurred on November 17, 2003. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

"A very large earthquake occurred tonight in the Rat Islands, Aleutians region of Alaska. This event which initially registered between M 7.3 (National  Earthquake Information Service - NEIS) and 7.9 (Centre Seismologique Europeo-

Mediterranean, Strasbourg – CSEM/EMSC) was probably felt in the epicentral area. A moderate sized tsunami is expected with wave heights between 10 cm and 2 m. The most likely locations to observed tsunamis would be islands in the central Aleutians, Hawaii and areas along the coast of South America. At this point however no tsunami has yet been reported by data gathering groups. This is the third large earthquake to hit the Rat Islands in the past year and is probably related to stress redistribution from those earlier events. Other events of M 7.0 occurred about 50 km to the west of today's epicenter on March 17, 2003 and about 150 km west on June 23, 2003. Neither of these events caused more than minor tsunamis, but tsunami height is very dependent on depth, magnitude and character of the earthquake rupture. The National Earthquake Information Service - NEIS is placing this event at shallow depth with larger magnitude so a tele-tsunami is a distinct possibility from this earthquake. This is the largest event in the U.S. or Canada since the Denali National Park Earthquake in Alaska which occurred on Nov. 3, 2002 and the strongest in North America since the Colima, Mexico earthquake of M 7.8 that occurred on January 22, 2003." (November 17, 2003)

 

 

 

An earthquake of M 4.3 was also lightly felt today in the region near Vancouver Island and Tofino, British Columbia, Canada where NEIC reported possible intensity III. This is probably an aftershock of the M 5.0 that hit this epicenter on May 3, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.0 in British Columbia, Canada. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to V in Tofino, Canada. This was the largest earthquake in the world today outside the swarm in the Fox Islands, Aleutians which included events of M 5.5, 5.5 and 5.6 among others. The earthquake in British Columbia was not at a typical epicenter for the region but occurred in Vancouver Island where it was widely felt. This earthquake occurred at the tail end of a major X-class solar flare (#7680)" (May 3, 2024)

 

Forecasts 162765 and 163040 had expected this activity in the Vancouver Island are was likely within about 50 km in early May, 2024.

 

O: 10MAY2024 11:44:38  48.8N  128.8W MB=4.3  EMSC   VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGIO

O: 10MAY2024 11:44:38  48.7N  128.8W MB=4.3  ECAN OF PORT HARDY, BC  

P:  4MAY2024 162765    49.3N  129.0W 2.8-5.1 CAAAA  Vancouver Island area      

P: 11MAY2024 163040    48.7N  129.0W 2.8-5.1 AAAAA  Vancouver Island area      

 

 

An unusual earthquake of M 3.8 also occurred today with the geomagnetic storm in north Mexico in the State of Coahuila. The solar eclipse of April 8 was at its maximum at this epicenter and may have promoted subsequent seismicity there. This is the strongest earthquake in the region of Coahuila within about 150 km of this epicenter since an M 4.7 on December 5, 1993. The only other such event in this area in the past 35 years occurred on October 1, 1992 with M 3.8.

 

Forecast 162662 had expected regional seismic enhancement around May 3.

 

O: 10MAY2024 18:32:16  27.3N  103.0W ML=3.8  EMSC   COAHUILA, MEXICO             

P:  3MAY2024 162662    28.0N   99.0W 3.0-4.4 CACAA  Northern Mexico            

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.6 in the area of New Britain, PNG. This is probably an aftershock of an M 6.5 of April 14, 2024 – the largest to date. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.5 in Papua New Guinea. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to VI in Kimbe, New Guinea. The last earthquake within about 250 km of this epicenter in New Guinea with  M>=6.5 occurred on May 14, 2019." (April 14, 2024)

 

Forecasts 162603 and 162878 had expected today's event within about 150 km was likely around May 7-13.

 

O: 10MAY2024 11:48:41   5.2S  151.9E MW=5.6  EMSC   NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.   

P:  7MAY2024 162603     4.0S  152.0E 4.0-5.7 BBAAA  New Britain                

P: 13MAY2024 162878     6.0S  151.0E 4.0-5.4 BAAAA  New Ireland                

 

 

STRONG QUAKE IN TAIWAN FOLLOWS MAJOR SOLAR FLARE

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MAY 9, 2024

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.8-6.0 aftershock in Taiwan. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to VI in Hualien City. CWB reported intensity IV in Taiwan at Hualien, Yilan; III in Nantou, Taichung, Taipei, Taoyuan, Hsinchu, and II in Miaoli, Taitung, Changhua, Yunlin, Chiayi, Hsinchu, Tainan, Kaohsiung and Pingtung Counties, Taiwan. EMSC reported moderate shaking in the Taiwanese Districts of Wenshan, Da'an, Taipei, Zhongshan, Yangmei, Xinzhuang, Shilin Linkou. This earthquake followed at the end of a major X3.9 class solar flare (#1310) and was probably triggered by Solar Flare Effects (SFE). No major damage was reported by the press but minor damage to structures damaged in previous earthquakes in this area is likely. Foreshocks of M 4.6 and M 5.1 preceded the M 5.8 with the M 5.1 about six hours earlier were reported by NEIC to have been felt in Hualien City with intensity II. If this all sounds familiar, the last earthquake of comparable magnitude (M 5.9) hit Taiwan following a major X4.5 flare on April 29, 2024 and was reported in this summary at the time as:

 

 

"A major X-class flare of X4.5 occurred early on May 6 around 5:35-7:00 UT maximizing about 6:30 UT. Longitudes most likely to be seismically activated by SFE from this flare are located near 90 West and 90 E and include Central America in the west and Indonesia, Taiwan, Philippines in the East. These are regions most likely to see strong or major events in the next several days related to this flare. Active areas at this time in these longitude bands include the aftershock zone of Taiwan and Central America where a moderately strong to strong earthquake is possible shortly.  This is the strongest flare reported by SWPC since an X6.3 on February 22, 2024. An X5.0 also occurred on December 31, 2023 and was followed hours later by the destructive M 7.5 in Western Japan of January 1, 2024. These are the only such flares of X4.5 or greater in the past three years.  At the time of the X6.3 on February 22, 2024 this summary noted:

 

...

 

This solar flare was followed 2-3 hours later by a pair of earthquakes of M 5.6

in the area of Taiwan. EMSC reported moderate shaking in Taiwan in Nantun, East, Wenshan, Da'an, Zhongshan, Tamsui,  Districts and in Shanzihding.   CWB reported these earthquakes at M 5.9 each. ... Earthquakes of  M 6.0 and M 6.1 hit Taiwan on April 22, 2024. Together with today's events of M 5.9 and an M 6.2 in Taiwan on April 3, 2024, these are the strongest aftershocks to date of the M 7.4 event of April 2, 2024." (May 6, 2024)

 

Following is the data from SWPC on the X3.9 solar flare today:

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

1310       0627   0654      0739   X3.9      (May 10, 2024)   4.4E-01  

 

Forecast 162667 had expected continued moderate earthquakes in this area of Taiwan were likely in early May, 2024.

 

O: 10MAY2024 01:35:38  23.7N  121.7E mb=5.0  EMSC   TAIWAN

O: 09MAY2024 12:36:25  23.9N  121.7E mb=4.6  EMSC   TAIWAN

O: 10MAY2024 01:37:23  23.9N  121.6E mb=4.9  EMSC   TAIWAN

O: 10MAY2024 01:40:20  23.9N  121.6E ML=4.1  EMSC   TAIWAN

O: 10MAY2024 07:45:19  24.2N  121.9E MW=5.8  EMSC   TAIWAN                       

P:  7MAY2024 162667    23.0N  122.0E 4.0-5.4 BBAAA  Taiwan                     

 

The most unusual earthquake in the Americas today was an M 4.6 east of Barbuda. This earthquake occurred near local solar noon and was in an area where this summary had expected enhanced seismicity with the new moon of May 8 as:

 

"The new  moon arrived on May 8, 2024  at 03:22 UT. Longitudes at local solar noon are near 128 East and those at local solar midnight are near 52 West longitude. In the west these include the northern and Eastern Caribbean as well as areas of western South America while in the East longitudes near 128 E are located in the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and Indonesia among others. These are the most likely areas to see tidal triggering at this time, but other areas could see significant enhancement in seismicity in the next several days. These would most likely see seismic enhancement near local solar noon or midnight. A strong to major earthquake is considered likely with this new moon before May 12, 2024." (May 8-9, 2024)

 

The last earthquake within about 100 km of today's epicenter east of Barbuda in the Leeward Islands with M>=4.6 occurred on December 3, 2011 with M 5.6. An M 4.9 earthquake in Antigua and Barbuda about 150 km southwest of today's epicenter also occurred yesterday (May 8, 2024) and was reported in the previous issue of this summary as:

 

"A moderate M 4.9 also occurred today in Antigua and Barbuda.  NEIC reported this earthquake of M 4.9 in Antigua and Barbuda was felt with intensity up to V in the area(s) of  Antigua and Barbuda at Falmouth.  EMSC reporteed strong shaking in Antigua and Barbuda at Five Islands, Antigua and in Guadeloupe at Deshaies, Petit-Canal, Sainte-Rose, Les Abymes, Lamentin, Baie-Mahault, Pointe-a-Pitre, Le Gosier, Sainte-Anne, and as far as Sint Maarten and Martinique. This event occurred near local solar noon and may have been promoted by strong tide or geomagnetic stresses which maximize near this time. An earthquake of M 5.2 hit the Antigua area on April 16 about 100 km north of today's epicenter." (May 8, 2024)

 

Forecast 162631 had expected today's event in this area was likely in early

May, 2024.

 

O:  9MAY2024 13:48:55  17.6N   59.6W MB=4.6  EMSC   EAST OF BARBUDA, LEEWARD ISLAN

P:  3MAY2024 162631    17.0N   61.0W 3.0-5.0 CAAAA  Leeward Islands            

P:  7MAY2024 162631    16.0N   60.0W 3.0-5.1 ABAAA  Leeward Islands            

 

 

STRONG EARTHQUAKE IN CENTRAL VANUATU

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MAY 8, 2024

 

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.1 in central Vanuatu. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to VI in Vanuatu at Luganville. Australian Press indicated only light shaking, no tsunami and no damage were reported with this earthquake. Several moderate aftershock including an M 5.4 were closely associated with Solar Flares. The M 6.1 occurred with today's new moon near local solar noon and may have been promoted by tidal and/or geomagnetic stressors as the tidal forecast with this new moon indicates:

 

"The new  moon arrived on May 8, 2024  at 03:22 UT. Longitudes at local solar noon are near 128 East and those at local solar midnight are near 52 West longitude. In the west these include the northern and Eastern Caribbean as well as areas of western South America while in the East longitudes near 128 E are located in the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and Indonesia among others. These are the most likely areas to see tidal triggering at this time, but other areas could see significant enhancement in seismicity in the next several days. These would most likely see seismic enhancement near local solar noon or midnight. A strong to major earthquake is considered likely with this new moon before May 12, 2024." (May 8, 2024)

 

This earthquake in Vanuatu followed minutes after solar flare 370 - an event of M4.5 and was probably promoted by SFE with this flare.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 370       0729   0741      0753   M4.5      (May 8, 2024)   5.1E-02  

 

The last earthquake in Vanuatu within about 200 km of this epicenter with equal or larger magnitude was an M 6.7 on November 22, 2023 and is probably an aftershock of that event. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.7 in central Vanuatu.

This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter in Vanuatu since an M 7.0 on January 8, 2023." (November 22, 2023)

 

Forecasts 162821 and 162822 had expected this activity in Vanuatu was likely within about 100 km in early May.

 

O: 08MAY2024 09:03:35  15.1S  168.1E mb=4.6  EMSC   VANUATU

O: 08MAY2024 11:04:53  15.1S  168.1E mb=4.8  EMSC   VANUATU

O: 08MAY2024 11:51:39  15.1S  168.1E Mw=5.2  EMSC   VANUATU

O: 08MAY2024 08:17:16  15.2S  168.0E Mw=6.1  EMSC   VANUATU

O: 08MAY2024 09:53:15  15.2S  168.2E mb=4.8  EMSC   VANUATU

O: 08MAY2024 12:45:05  15.2S  168.0E mb=4.7  EMSC   VANUATU

O: 09MAY2024 03:08:48  15.2S  168.0E mb=5.1  EMSC   VANUATU

O: 08MAY2024 13:37:42  15.5S  168.2E mb=5.2  EMSC   VANUATU

O:  8MAY2024 11:06:19  15.3S  168.1E MB=5.4  EMSC   VANUATU                      

P:  4MAY2024 162821    15.0S  167.0E 4.0-5.5 AAAAA  Vanuatu Islands            

P:  7MAY2024 162822    17.0S  167.0E 4.0-5.8 ABAAA  Vanuatu Islands            

 

 

A series of moderate earthquakes in Guatemala, Nicaragua, Colombia and Ecuador have occurred in the past two days - most near local solar noon or local solar midnight.

 

The most interesting of these was an M 4.7 in Nicaragua which occurred within minutes of local solar noon. This epicenter at 12 North latitude is exactly aub-solar when this event occurred, as is 12N latitude around the world today. This means this epicenter saw the sun at it's zenith as this earthquake occurred. This summary has previously argued that this alignment can promoted sub-solar seismicity. Today's event in Nicaragua also coincided with Solar Flare 520 (M7.9) which maximized at the time of today's earthquake in Nicaragua. Following is the flare data for this event from SWPC:

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 520       1732   1753      1800   M7.9      (May 8, 2024)   5.8E-02  

 

An earthquake of M 5.5 occurred in Nicaragua on April 17, 2024. Today's event may be a regional aftershock of that event. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The earthquake in Nicaragua was the strongest within about 200 km of that epicenter since an M 6.7 on April 21, 2022." (April 17, 2024)

 

Forecast 162639 had expected today's event in Nicaragua was likely within  about 100 km around May 9.

 

O:  8MAY2024 17:53:44  12.0N   87.1W MB=4.7  EMSC   NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA      

P:  9MAY2024 162639    11.0N   87.0W 3.5-5.8 AAAAA  Nicaragua                  

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.3 in Guatemala was felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of  Guatemala at Puerto San Jose. EMSC reported moderate shaking in Guatemala at Antigua, Jocotenango, Aldea Santo Tomas Milpas Altas, and in San Salvador, El Salvador. Forecast 162630 had expected this event was likely within about 100 km around May 7, 2024.

 

O:  9MAY2024 01:07:43  13.8N   90.9W MB=4.3  EMSC   OFFSHORE GUATEMALA           

P:  7MAY2024 162630    13.0N   91.0W 3.5-5.5 AAAAA  Guatemala                  

 

A moderate M 4.9 also occurred today in Antigua and Barbuda. NEIC reported this earthquake of M 4.9 in Antigua and Barbuda was felt with intensity up to V in the area(s) of  Antigua and Barbuda at Falmouth.  EMSC reported strong shaking in Antigua and Barbuda at Five Islands, Antigua and in Guadeloupe at Deshaies, Petit-Canal, Sainte-Rose, Les Abymes, Lamentin, Baie-Mahault, Pointe-a-Pitre, Le Gosier, Sainte-Anne, and as far as Sint Maarten and Martinique. This event occurred near local solar noon and may have been promoted by strong tide or geomagnetic stresses which maximize near this time. An earthquake of M 5.2 hit the Antigua area on April 16 about 100 km north of today's epicenter.

 

Forecast 162631 had expected today's event was likely around May 7, 2024.

 

O:  8MAY2024 14:43:56  16.8N   61.7W MB=4.9  EMSC   ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA REGION   

P:  7MAY2024 162631    16.0N   60.0W 3.0-5.1 AABAA  Leeward Islands            

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.0 in the Andreanof Islands, Aleutians, Alaska. It was not reported felt in this remote area. It occurred at the maximum output of flare 680 and may have been promoted by SFE from that flare.

 

Forecast 162773 had expected this event was likely within about 25 km was likely around May 10, 2024.

 

O:  9MAY2024 01:21:22  52.2N  172.4W ML=4.0  EMSC   ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS

P: 10MAY2024 162773    52.1N  172.8W 3.5-5.1 AAAAA  Andreanoff Isls, Aleutians 

 

An earthquake of M 3.9 occurred today off the coast of Baja California. It was not reported felt. This epicenter became active with an M 6.2 on November 22, 2022. A series of light to moderate earthquake hit this region  off California in the following year including an M 4.5 on May 14, 2023. But little of similar magnitude in the area has occurred in the past year. Today's earthquake had been forecast in forecast 162709 to the north of this epicenter around May 9, 2024.

 

O:  8MAY2024 17:50:06  30.8N  116.3W ML=3.9  EMSC   OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXI

P:  9MAY2024 162709    32.6N  116.1W 2.5-4.5 ABAAA  So. California             

 

SEISMIC ENHANCEMENT IN SOUTHERN OCEANS

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MAY 7, 2024

 

The largest earthquakes today in the world occurred in the Southern Oceans and included an M 5.6 east of the South Sandwich Islands; an M 5.1 in the South Sandwich Islands and events of M 4.9 and 5.0 in the West Chile Rise. None of these were reported felt in their respective respective epicentral areas. A strong activation of events at high latitudes is often a sign of some geomagnetic storm triggering and today's activity is not an exception to this precedence. These events had been anticipated in forecasts 162854, 162853 and 162572 in early May. The largest - the M 5.6 in the southern Atlantic - is the strongest within about 300 km of that epicenter since an M 5.6 near this epicenter on March 3, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"A pair of moderately strong earthquakes also occurred today in the area east of the South Sandwich Islands in the South Atlantic. This continues seismic enhancement with the geomagnetic storm at these high latitudes. This had been discussed in the previous issue of this summary as:

 

 

 

"A pair of moderate earthquakes also occurred in the South Georgia Island and South Sandwich Islands region southeast of South America today. The M 5.1 in the southern South Sandwich Islands occurred within about an hour of local solar noon and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses and/or by the strong geomagnetic storm." (March 2, 3, 2023)

 

 

O:  7MAY2024 14:34:58  59.5S   18.0W MW=5.6  EMSC   EAST OF SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS

O: 07MAY2024 14:34:58  59.5S   18.0W mw=5.6  ANSS   the South Sandwich Islands

P:  5MAY2024 162854    61.0S   22.0W 4.0-5.8 ABBAA  Southern  Ocean            

 

O:  7MAY2024 07:55:59  57.6S   26.0W MB=5.1  EMSC   SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

P:  7MAY2024 162853    58.0S   26.0W 4.0-5.8 AAAAA  So. Sandwich Islands       

 

O:  7MAY2024 23:28:26  41.5S   86.6W MB=5.0  EMSC   WEST CHILE RISE              

O: 07MAY2024 22:30:31  41.4S   84.7W Mw=4.9  EMSC   WEST CHILE RISE

P: 30APR2024 162572    41.0S   88.0W 4.0-5.6 CAAAA  Chile Rise                 

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.1 on the border between Southern California and Baja California. This earthquake was closely associated  with a series of strong solar flares beginning with flare 270 (C9.3) around 01:00 UT and ending with flares 280 and 290 (about 01:15-01:35 UT) - an X1.0 class flare. It is likely it was promoted by SFE from those sources. The last earthquake of M>=4.1 within about 50 km of this epicenter in Baja California occurred as an M  4.8, 4.1 and 4.6 on February 12, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The largest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.8 in Southern California. It was reported with intensity up to VI in the El Centro, California region. It was accompanied by a strong series of light aftershocks including some up to M 4.2.  EMSC reported it was strong enough to waken all with pictures shifting and objects falling off shelves in El Centro. Minor damage was reported. Strong intensity was felt in El Centro, Imperial, Calexico, La Quinta, Lakeside, El Cajon, Indio, Chula Vista, Santee, Palm Springs and as far as San Diego and Los Angeles, California with light intensity and in Baja Mexico in Pueblo Nuevo, Nueva, Cuauhtemoc, Prohogar, and in Yuma, Arizona. The last earthquake in southern California within about 100 km of today's epicenter with M>=4.8 occurred as an M 4.8 on December 1, 2023 but the last of larger magnitude was an M 5.3 on June 5, 2021. At the time of the M 4.8 on December 1, 2023 this summary noted in  this regard:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.8 in Southern California. …  This event occurred within about 5 minutes of local solar midnight (07:43 UT whereas local solar midnight was at 07:21 UT). It is likely that it was promoted by strong geomagnetic and tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. It was followed by a series of light to moderate aftershocks and followed a number of regional foreshocks over the past several days. A foreshock of M 3.3 hit the area 8 minutes before the mainshock and was felt with intensity up to IV according to data from NEIC. This followed several hours after an M 2.7 which was felt lightly in Mecca, California. Aftershock sequences in this area can be quite extensive and continue strongly for several days. These often include events stronger than the first mainshock. This can be expected in the coming several days.  This activity and an M 3.9 in Utah minutes earlier coincided with the expected severe geomagnetic storm associated with CME from the M9.8 solar flare of November 28 hitting the ionosphere with an arcjet about 05:12 UT to 06:33 UT. as noted in the previous issue of this summary:

 

 

"... the strongest solar flare since August 7, 2023 when an X1.5 was observed.

The largest solar flare in the past year was an X2.2 on February 17, 2023 (#630). Today's event in Oman occurred towards the end of the M9.8 class solar flare (#3400)." (November 29, 2023, December 1, 2023, February 12, 2024)

 

 

NEIC reported this earthquake of M 4.1 in Baja California was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of  Baja California in Delta.  Forecast 162709 had expected enhanced seismicity in this area was likely around May 9. 

 

 

O:  8MAY2024 01:14:36  32.4N  115.3W MW=4.1  EMSC   BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO      

O: 08MAY2024 01:14:36  32.4N  115.2W mw=4.1  ANSS   NW of Delta B.C.

P:  9MAY2024 162709    32.6N  116.1W 2.5-4.5 AAAAA  So. California             

 

A series of light earthquake occurred today in western Texas. The largest of these were of M 3.6 and 3.5 and were confined to periods near local noon and midnight. NEIC reported this earthquake of M 3.5 in Western Texas was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of  Western Texas in Whites City, New Mexico.

NEIC reported earthquakes of M 3.2 and M 3.3 in Western Texas were felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of  Western Texas in Toyah. This is not unusual activity for the area. Those near local noon were associated closely with flares 170-200 - the later of M2.1. Forecast 162707 had expected this activity in western Texas was likely around May 7.

 

O: 07MAY2024 08:53:25  31.7N  104.3W ML=3.6  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 07MAY2024 08:57:36  31.7N  104.3W ML=2.2  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 07MAY2024 19:46:11  31.7N  104.2W ML=3.5  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 07MAY2024 19:47:17  31.7N  104.2W ML=3.3  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 07MAY2024 19:50:14  31.7N  104.2W ML=2.0  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 07MAY2024 19:50:56  31.7N  104.2W ML=2.1  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 07MAY2024 19:56:55  31.7N  104.2W ML=3.2  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 07MAY2024 20:31:24  31.7N  104.2W ML=2.3  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 07MAY2024 23:27:41  31.7N  104.2W ML=3.2  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 08MAY2024 02:49:03  31.7N  104.2W ML=2.0  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O:  7MAY2024 08:47:03  31.7N  104.3W ML=3.5  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS                

P:  7MAY2024 162707    32.6N  104.6W 2.0-4.3 AAAAA  SW U.S.A                   

 

 

UNUSUAL EARTHQUAKES WITH STRONG FLARES

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MAY 6, 2024

 

Several unusual earthquake occurred in the world today. The largest of these was an M 5.3 in Chukotka, Russia north of the Aleutian Islands. The last earthquake within about 300 km of this epicenter in Chukotka with M>=5.3 occurred on March 26, 2012 - the only such event in the past 35 years. NEIC reported this earthquake of M 5.3 in Northern Siberia, Russia was felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of  Northern Siberia, Russia in Egvekinot.

 

This activity occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses which can maximize near this hour. This earthquake followed solar flare 9470 (C6.5) and may have been promoted by SFE associated with this flare. This epicenter is at 103 degrees from the M 6.7 in Brazil of January 20, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

This activity in Chukotka, Russia occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses at this hour.

 

O:  6MAY2024 11:11:58  67.9N  177.8W MW=5.3  EMSC   CHUKOTKA, RUSSIA             

O: 06MAY2024 11:27:35  67.9N  177.9W mb=4.4  EMSC   CHUKOTKA, RUSSIA

 

A pair of smaller earthquakes of M 4.2 and M 4.3 also occurred in northeastern Russia today in the Komandorsky Islands. This was closely associated with flare

9540 and 9550 and may have been promoted by those flares.

 

Forecast 162779 had expected this activity was likely around May 7-9 within  about 100 km of today's events within about 50 km in the Komandorsky Islands.

 

O:  6MAY2024 16:25:51  55.0N  164.9E MB=4.2  EMSC   KOMANDORSKIYE OSTROVA REGION 

O:  7MAY2024 06:54:59  55.4N  164.7E MB=4.3  EMSC   KOMANDORSKIYE OSTROVA REGION 

P:  7MAY2024 162779    55.0N  166.0E 4.0-5.6 AAAAA  Komandorsky Isl            

P:  9MAY2024 162779    55.0N  163.0E 4.0-5.8 AAAAA  Komandorsky Isl            

 

A pair of earthquakes of M 5.9 also occurred today in the area of Taiwan. These were noted in the previous issue of this summary (in part) as:

 

"This solar flare was followed 2-3 hours later by a pair of earthquakes of M 5.6

in the area of Taiwan. EMSC reported moderate shaking in Taiwan in Nantun, East, Wenshan, Da'an, Zhongshan, Tamsui,  Districts and in Shanzihding.  CWB reported these earthquakes at M 5.9 each. CWB reported they were felt with intensity IV in Hualien, Nantou; III in Yilan, Taichung, Kaohsiung, Changhua, Taitung, Yunlin, Chiayi, Miaoli; II in Taipei, Taoyuan, Tainan, Hsinchu and I in Penghu and Pingtung Counties, Taiwan. Earthquakes of  M 6.0 and M 6.1 hit Taiwan on April 22, 2024. Together with today's events of M 5.9 and an M 6.2 in Taiwan on April 3, 2024, these are the strongest aftershocks to date of the M 7.4 event of April 2, 2024." (May 6, 2024)

 

Forecast 162667 had expected today's event within about 100 km was likely  around May 7, 2024.

 

O:  6MAY2024 09:52:46  23.7N  121.6E ML=5.9  TAI    Hualien, Taiwan              

O:  6MAY2024 09:45:31  23.8N  121.6E ML=5.9  TAI    Hualien, Taiwan              

P:  7MAY2024 162667    23.0N  122.0E 4.0-5.4 AAAAA  Taiwan                     

 

 

The most unusual earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 2.2 in North Carolina. This earthquake occurred at the peak of the X4.5 solar flare (#9380). This flare began when this epicenter was at local solar midnight, a time when Solar Flare Effects (SFE) can maximize and was probably triggered by these effects. An M 2.2 also hit this area on May 11, 2022 but the last earthquake with larger magnitude within about 100 km of this epicenter was an M 2.4 on December 23, 2018.  Following area the SWPC parameters for flare 9380.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

9380       0538   0635      0647   X4.5      (May 6, 2024)   5.4E-01  

 

Forecast 162719 had expected this earthquake in North Carolina within about

150 km of today's epicenter was likely around May 9.

 

O:  6MAY2024 06:41:15  35.2N   81.0W MD=2.2  EMSC   NORTH CAROLINA               

P:  9MAY2024 162719    34.0N   80.0W 2.0-4.3 BBAAA  Southeast U.S.             

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada reported today was an unusual event in Nova Scotia, Canada. This epicenter was near the total eclipse of the sun on April 8 and may have been stresses by that event. Five earthquakes of M>=3.5 have been reported by NEIC within about 200 km of today's epicenter in the past 35 years. The last was an M 4.5 on June 19, 2022 with the largest an M 4.7 on January 25, 2005. At these times this summary noted these events as:

 

"An unusual earthquake of M 4.5 occurred today in the North Atlantic Ocean east of Maine. It was not reported felt in this remote area.  NEIC reported this earthquake of M 4.5 in the North Atlantic was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of  New Brunswick, Canada and Franklin, Maine.  This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter in the North Atlantic since an M 4.7 on January 25, 2005, the only such event in this area in at least 30 years." (June 19, 2022)

 

and when the event in January, 2005 occurred this summary noted it as:

 

"Two moderate earthquakes of M>=4.5 occurred today at opposite sides of the North American continent. The most unusual of these was an M 4.7 in  the North Atlantic Ocean in the Laurentian Fan off Nova Scotia. This is near the Grand Banks epicenter of 1929 which produced one of the most widespread and damaging tsunamis to hit the eastern U.S. or Canada in historic times. Today's event is too small to trigger a significant tsunami. No reports of damage or casualties from this quake have been reported. This earthquake was located at 102 degrees from the M 6.8 in Honshu, Japan last week - a strong cusp distance from that event. This is the strongest earthquake located by NEIC in the area (30-50N 46-66W) in at least five years. It appears to be the strongest in the region (40-50N 46-60W) to occur in the past 30 years – since an M 5.2 about 100 km from this epicenter on Oct. 6, 1975." (January 26, 2005)

 

 

O:  5MAY2024 00:35:36  44.8N   56.3W MB=3.5  ECAN OF GLACE BAY, NS               

 

Unusual earthquakes also occurred today in Botswana (M 3.9 and 3.0) and in the Norwegian Sea (M 4.5). The earthquake in Botswana occurred during Solar Flare 9530 and may have been promoted by related SFE. It is the strongest earthquake in Botswana since an M 4.3 on May 1, 2009 and an M 4.1 on December 2, 1991 - the only such events in the past 35 years. Forecast 162829 had expected regional seismic enhancement was likely in early May. This epicenter is located at the third node (120 degrees) from the M 7.6 in western Honshu, Japan of January 1, 2024 and at 103 degrees from recent strong quakes in Mindanao, Philippines  and Taiwan of M 7.4 of April 2, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.

 

O:  6MAY2024 15:10:53  19.5S   22.8E ML=3.9  EMSC   BOTSWANA                     

O: 06MAY2024 16:30:58  22.2S   25.2E ML=3.0  EMSC   BOTSWANA

P: 10MAY2024 162829    27.0S   27.0E 3.0-4.7 BCCAA  Rep. South Africa           

 

The earthquake of M 4.5 in the Norwegian Sea is the strongest within about 350 km of that epicenter since an M 4.6 on October 18, 2018 - the only such event within this region in at least 35 years.

 

O:  6MAY2024 08:55:45  65.1N    2.4W MB=4.5  EMSC   NORWEGIAN SEA                

 

The most unusual earthquake in the world today however, was an M 4.7 south of Ivory Coast, Western Africa. There is little geography in the area to suggest moderate earthquakes of this size and it is too large to be artificial through explosions. An earthquake of M 5.5 was located by NEIC about 200 km west of today's epicenter on April 18, 2018. At the time this summary noted:

 

"An earthquake of M 5.5 hit the eastern Central Atlantic region today. This is

an unprecedented earthquake in this relatively non-seismic area. No earthquakes of M>=5.5 have hit this region in the past 25 years. The only event located in  the region is seismic history of the past 100 years may have been an M 6.0 about 200 km east of this on September 30, 1971. This is somewhat questionable due to the timing and stations which reported this magnitude. Today's earthquake was not alone. It followed an M 5.0 at 25 degrees to the southwest of this in the southern Mid-Atlantic Ocean 17 minutes 11 seconds earlier. The SCS phase from this earthquake, while small, was in the epicentral area of the M 5.5 when that earthquake occurred and may have helped trigger it." (April 18, 2018)

 

Forecast 162608 had expected this event in the South Atlantic as part of regional seismic enhancement around May 5. This earthquake os located at 144-147  degrees from the M 6.9 in New Guinea of March 23, 3024 and that of te Mariana Islands of M 6.9 on April 5, 2024 and was likely promoted by energy from those sources.

 

Today's event in the South Atlantic followed shortly after a strong C9.4 flare

(9610) and may have been promoted by SFE from that flare and/or geomagnetic effects as it lies near the geomagnetic equator where such effects are maximized.

 

O:  6MAY2024 20:03:40   0.5S    4.8W MB=4.7  EMSC   SOUTH ATLANTIC OCEAN         

P:  5MAY2024 162608     5.0S   12.0W 4.0-5.8 ACCAA  No. of Ascension Isl       

 

Moderate earthquake of M 4.9 also occurred today south of Africa and in the South Atlantic Ocean. These events were probably promoted by strong tidal stresses as they occurred within minutes of local solar noon in the area south of Africa and near local solar midnight in the South Sandwich Islands. Forecast 162853 had expected that event within about 50 km was likely around May 7.

 

The epicenter south of Africa of M 4.9 is at 103 degrees from recent strong earthquakes in Talaud and Mindanao, Philippines and the M 6.7 in the Loyalty Islands of March 27, 2024 and  may have been  promoted by energy from those sources.

 

O:  6MAY2024 10:38:30  52.7S   21.2E MB=4.9  EMSC   SOUTH OF AFRICA              

O: 06MAY2024 10:38:29  52.6S   21.3E mb=4.9  ANSS   south of Africa"

 

O:  7MAY2024 00:42:26  55.3S   29.3W MB=4.9  EMSC   SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

P:  7MAY2024 162853    56.0S   29.0W 4.0-5.8 AAAAA  So. Sandwich Islands       

 

The strongest activity in the America's today occurred in the first 30 minutes after 15:00 UT (Near local solar noon) in Colombia and Ecuador with M 4.8, 4.8 and 5.0. This was probably promoted by SFE from the strong X4.5 solar flare which occurred as this region was near local solar midnight and occurred with an M 4.9 in Tarapaca, Chile at its height. This reaction through SFE from this flare had been anticipated in the previous summary as:

 

 

"The earthquake in Tarapaca, Chile occurred at an epicenter which was near local solar midnight when flare 9380 began and was probably promoted by SFE associated with that flare.  EMSC reported this earthquake of M 4.9 in Northern Chile was felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of  Northern Chile in Tarapaca at Alto Hospicio, Iquique,  It was preceded by an M 3.1 several minutes earlier at 06:27 UT felt lightly in Antofagasta, Chile. GUC reported it at M 4.7 was felt with moderate intensity at Mina Colahuasi, Tarapaca and in Ollague, Pica and Iquique, Chile." (May 6, 2024)

 

and

 

"The New Moon will arrive on April 8, 2024 at 18:21 UT.  Longitudes near local solar noon are near 95 West and 85 East. In the west these include areas of Central and North America in Costa Rica, eastern Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua and central U.S. and in the east areas near 85 East longitude include southeast Asia and western Indonesia. These are the most likely areas to see enhanced tidally-related seismicity at this time. Other areas may also see enhanced seismicity with this new moon, most likely near local solar noon or midnight." (May 4-6, 2024)

 

Forecasts 162599 and 162582 had expected this activity around May 6 in these areas.

 

O: 06MAY2024 15:32:32   0.5N   77.6W Mw=4.8  EMSC   COLOMBIA-ECUADOR BORDER REGION

O: 06MAY2024 15:32:32   0.5N   77.7W mw=4.8  ANSS   San Gabriel Ecuador

O: 06MAY2024 15:17:04   0.4N   77.6W mw=5.0  ANSS   San Gabriel Ecuador

O:  6MAY2024 15:17:06   0.5N   77.6W MW=5.0  EMSC   COLOMBIA-ECUADOR BORDER REGION

P:  6MAY2024 162599     2.0S   78.0W 4.0-5.6 ACAAA  Ecuador                    

 

NEIC reported this earthquake of M 5.0 in Ecuador was felt with intensity up to VII in the area(s) of  Ecuador in San Gabriel.  EMSC reported moderate shaking in Ipiales, Colombia. This earthquake is located at 144 degrees from the M 7.4 of April 2, 2024 and was likely promoted by energy from that source.

 

O:  6MAY2024 15:01:52   8.0N   75.3W MB=4.8  EMSC   NORTHERN COLOMBIA            

O: 06MAY2024 15:01:52   8.1N   75.4W mb=4.8  ANSS   NE of Montel├¡bano Colombia

P:  6MAY2024 162586     7.0N   73.0W 4.0-5.6 AACAA  Colombia                   

 

EMSC reported this earthquake of M 4.8 in Northern Colombia was felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of  Northern Colombia in Montelibano, Envigado.

 

O:  6MAY2024 15:03:53  17.1S   65.0W MB=4.8  EMSC   COCHABAMBA, BOLIVIA          

O: 06MAY2024 15:03:52  17.2S   65.0W mb=4.8  ANSS   SE of Chimor├⌐ Bolivia

P:  3MAY2024 162815    18.0S   69.0W 4.0-5.6 BACAA  So. Peru/Bolivia           

 

 

 

MAJOR X4.5 SOLAR FLARE PRECEDES TWO M 5.6-5.9 QUAKES IN TAIWAN

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MAY 5, 2024

 

Global seismicity was at high levels today as strong solar flares continued.

Moderately large to large earthquakes occurred in Taiwan (M 5.9, 5.9); Ceram, Indonesia (M 6.2, 5.6) Unimak, Alaska (M 5.2); East Pacific Rise (M 4.9, 4.9, 5.4); Solomon Islands (M 5.4); Tonga (M 5.4) and New Guinea (M 5.4).  The largest of these were closely associated with major solar flares (often when those areas were near local solar noon or midnight) as identified in the text below.

 

A major X-class flare of X4.5 occurred early on May 6 around 5:35-7:00 UT maximizing about 6:30 UT. Longitudes most likely to be seismically activated by SFE from this flare are located near 90 West and 90 E and include Central America in the west and Indonesia, Taiwan, Philippines in the East. These are regions most likely to see strong or major events in the next several days related to this flare. Active areas at this time in these longitude bands include the aftershock zone of Taiwan and Central America where a moderately strong to strong earthquake is possible shortly.  This is the strongest flare reported by SWPC since an X6.3 on February 22, 2024. An X5.0 also occurred on December 31, 2023 and was followed hours later by the destructive M 7.5 in Western Japan of January 1, 2024. These are the only such flares of X4.5 or greater in the past three years.  At the time of the X6.3 on February 22, 2024 this summary noted:

 

"A major X6.3 solar flare today was followed shortly thereafter by an M 6.3 in the South Pacific Ocean near in the antipodal region of the M 7.1 in Xinjiang, China of January 22, 2024. The X6.3 flare is the strongest recorded in the past seven years. This summary gave a short review of recent strong X-class flares  when an X5.0 occurred on December 31, 2023 as:

 

 

"A major solar flare of X5.0 (SWPC #40) began at 21:36 UT - late on December 31, 2024. This flare is the strongest since September, 2017 as described in a previous issue of this summary as:

 

"Today's solar flare of X2.8 is the strongest solar flare thus far in the current active cycle of the sun. The last solar flare of stronger class was an X8.3 on September 10, 2017 (#9040) and an X9.3 on September 6, 2017 (#7340)." (December 14, 2023, December 31, 2023, February 22, 2024)

 

Initial parameters for today's flare from SWPC are:

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

9380       0538   0635      0647   X4.5      (May 6, 2024)   5.4E-01  

 

This solar flare was followed 2-3 hours later by a pair of earthquakes of M 5.6

in the area of Taiwan. EMSC reported moderate shaking in Taiwan in Nantun, East, Wenshan, Da'an, Zhongshan, Tamsui,  Districts and in Shanzihding. CWB reported these earthquakes at M 5.9 each. CWB reported they were felt with intensity IV in Hualien, Nantou; III in Yilan, Taichung, Kaohsiung, Changhua, Taitung, Yunlin, Chiayi, Miaoli,; II in Taipei, Taoyuan, Tainan, Hsinchu and I in Penghu and Pingtung Counties, Taiwan. Earthquakes of  M 6.0 and M 6.1 hit Taiwan on April 22, 2024. Together with today's events of M 5.9 and an M 6.2 in Taiwan on April 3, 2024, these are the strongest aftershocks to date of the M 7.4 event of April 2, 2024. At the time of the M 6.1 and 6.0 on April 22 this summary noted in this regard:

 

 

"A strong series of aftershocks of moderate to large magnitude is  occurred in Taiwan with two strong quakes of M 6.0 and 6.1. Local news reports these event have caused further damage to structures weakened by the M 7.4 in Taiwan of April 2, 2024. These are the strongest aftershocks in Taiwan of the April 2, 2004 mainshock since April 2 when an M 6.4 aftershock occurred. NEIC reported the events of M 6.0 and M 6.1 were felt with intensity up to VIII with damage in Hualien City, Taiwan. EMSC reported they were felt in Taiwan with strong to extreme intensity in Zhuangwei Township East Districk, Hsinchu, Shihjhalun, Xindian District, Wenshan District, Yonghe District, New Taipei City, Da'an District, Zhongzhen District, Beitou District, Tamsui District. Regional press reported damage to many structures as well as to infrastructure and landslides were particularly destructive. Some injuries have been reported. The first of the moderately large earthquakes in Taiwan today occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by the full moon of April 23.

 

...

 

This series has been building in the past two days but broke wide open today. This summary noted it in the previous issue as:

 

 

"As a prelude to the full moon of April 23, seismicity continued to heat up in Taiwan. NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.7 in Taiwan today was felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of  Taiwan in Hualien City.  EMSC reported gentle to strong shaking in tTaiwan at Jiaoxi Township, New Taipei City, and the Districts of Da'an, Tamsui. In the previous summary it was noted as:

 

 

"An M 5.1 also occurred as an aftershock to the M 7.4 in Taiwan of April 2, 2024. NEIC reported this earthquake of M 5.1  in Taiwan was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of  Taiwan in Hualien City. EMSC reported strong shaking in Taiwan in the Qingshui and Nangang Districts and in Taipei City. This is the strongest aftershock in Taiwan of that event since an M 5.2 on April 6, 2024

and the second strongest since immediate aftershocks of M 5.5 and 5.2 on April 3, 2024. Today's activity occurred near local solar noon when tidal stresses are high. This suggests that tidal promotion with the upcoming full moon may be occurring at this time and that further moderate to strong earthquakes may follow in the next several days in Taiwan." (April 21, 22, 2024)

 

Today's events in Taiwan - like those of April 22 may also have been promoted by enhanced tidal stresses with the upcoming new moon of May 8 as reported in this summary in previous issues as:

 

"The New Moon will arrive on April 8, 2024 at 18:21 UT.  Longitudes near local solar noon are near 95 West and 85 East. In the west these include areas of Central and North America in Costa Rica, eastern Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua and central U.S. and in the east areas near 85 East longitude include southeast Asia and western Indonesia. These are the most likely areas to see enhanced tidally-related seismicity at this time. Other areas may also see enhanced seismicity with this new moon, most likely near local solar noon or midnight." (May 4-6, 2024)

 

Forecast 162667 had expected today's event within about 100 km was likely around May 7, 2024.

 

O:  6MAY2024 09:52:46  23.7N  121.6E ML=5.9  TAI    Hualien, Taiwan              

O:  6MAY2024 09:45:31  23.8N  121.6E ML=5.9  TAI    Hualien, Taiwan              

P:  7MAY2024 162667    23.0N  122.0E 4.0-5.4 AAAAA  Taiwan                     

 

A moderate earthquake in Kyushu, Japan of M 4.8 also occurred today at the

maximum output of Solar Flare 9380 (X4.5). Earthquakes of M 4.9 also  occurred with the greatest output of flare 9380 in northern Chile, Tarapaca and of M 4.6 in the Drake Passage south of South America.

 

The event in Kyushu is the strongest within that area since an M 5.1 on April 8. The M 4.6 in the Drake Passage is the first in that area since an M 5.1 on May 30, 2023. An M 5.4 also hit the area on June 23, 2021.

 

Forecast 162690 had expected today's event in Kyushu, Japan was likely within about 10 km of this epicenter around May 7, 2024.

 

O:  6MAY2024 06:26:24  30.1N  131.0E MB=4.8  EMSC   KYUSHU, JAPAN                

P:  7MAY2024 162690    30.0N  131.0E 3.5-5.0 AAAAA  Kyushu, Japan area          

 

The earthquake Tarapaca, Chile occurred at an epicenter which was near local solar midnight when flare 9380 began and was probably promoted by SFE associated with that flare.  EMSC reported this earthquake of M 4.9 in Northern Chile was felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of  Northern Chile in Tarapaca at Alto Hospicio, Iquique,  It was preceded by an M 3.1 several minutes earlier at 06:27 UT felt lightly in Antofagasta, Chile. GUC reported it at M 4.7 was felt with moderate intensity at Mina Colahuasi, Tarapaca and in Ollague, Pica and Iquique, Chile.

 

Forecast 162826 had expected today's event within about 100 km of this epicenter was likely around May 5.

 

O:  6MAY2024 06:30:30  20.8S   68.8W MB=4.9  EMSC   TARAPACA, CHILE              

O: 06MAY2024 06:30:30  20.8S   68.9W mb=4.9  ANSS   WNW of Ollag├╝e Chile

P:  5MAY2024 162826    22.0S   69.0W 4.0-5.5 ABAAA  Coast No. Chile            

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.2 in the area of Seram, Indonesia. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to VI in Fakfak, Indonesia. BMG reported this event at M 6.1. This and an M 5.8 aftershock were reported by BMG to have been felt with intensity III in Bula, Seram Timur, Tutuk Tolu, Kilmury, Dian Darat, Teluk Waru and II in Kab Maluku Tengah, Seram Bagian, Tual, Sorong, Fak, Selatan, Raja Ampat, Teluk Bintuni, Kaimana, Maybrat and Sorong. It was probably triggered by solar flare 9200 - an M1.0 flare which was calculated by SWPC to have started within a minute of the occurrence of this event in Seram, Indonesia. Data for this flare from SWPC follows:

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

9200       1834   1840      1845   M1.0      (May 5, 2024)   5.6E-03  

 

The only earthquake of M>=6 in Seram, Indonesia in the past three years was an M 5.8-6.1 on June 16, 2021 as reported in this summary at the time:

 

 

 

"An earthquake of M 5.8-6.1 shook regions of the Banda Sea, Indonesia today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity VI in Amahai, Maluku, Indonesia.

BMG reported this event with M 6.1 was felt with intensity III in Tehoru, Masohi, Bula, Kairatu and Ambon, Indonesia.  This event occurred as the strongest geomagnetic storm of the month occurred and reached its maximum intensity. As it is located near the geomagnetic equator and occurred near local solar noon, it is likely this was promoted by effects associated with this geomagnetic storm

 

...

 

Two earthquake have occurred within about 250 km of this epicenter with M>=5.8 in the past year - an M 5.9 on April 3, 2021 and an M 5.9 on September 8, 2020. The last of magnitude larger than M 6.1 in this area was an M 6.5 on September 25, 2019." (June 16, 2021)

 

Forecast 162598 had expected today's event within about 200 km in the Seram area was likely around May 4, 2024.

 

O: 05MAY2024 18:58:35   3.2S  131.0E ML=3.9  EMSC   SERAM, INDONESIA

O: 05MAY2024 10:39:53   3.3S  130.7E mb=4.7  EMSC   SERAM, INDONESIA

O: 05MAY2024 20:37:12   3.3S  130.9E Mw=5.6  EMSC   SERAM, INDONESIA

O: 05MAY2024 18:33:11   3.4S  130.9E Mw=6.1  EMSC   SERAM, INDONESIA

O: 06MAY2024 01:03:53   3.5S  131.0E mb=4.7  EMSC   SERAM, INDONESIA

O: 05MAY2024 20:37:12   3.3S  130.9E mw=5.6  ANSS   WSW of Fakfak Indonesia

O: 05MAY2024 18:33:10   3.3S  131.0E mw=6.2  ANSS   WSW of Fakfak Indonesia

O:  6MAY2024 05:01:48   3.6S  127.6E ML=4.3  EMSC   SERAM, INDONESIA             

P:  4MAY2024 162598     4.0S  129.0E 4.0-5.4 AABAA  Ceram area                 

 

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.2 in the Akutan area south of Alaska. This is the largest earthquake in the area of Akutan within about 150 km since an M  5.7 on August 13, 2020. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.6 in the Unimak Island area of Alaska. This epicenter continues a westward migration of major aftershocks from the mainshock of M 7.8 on July 22, 2020 in the Alaska Peninsula. Further strong seismicity in this migration is likely. The only event of M>=4.5 in the Unimak Island area in the past year was an M 4.7 on May 9, 2020. The only events of equal or larger magnitude in the Unimak area of Alaska in the past 10 years occurred with M 5.7-5.8 on November 6, 2011 and October 27, 2016." (August 13, 2020)

 

Today's event in Unimak, Alaska may have been triggered by an M1.3 solar flare (#8880) which was occurring during when this event occurred.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

8880       0807   0819      0835   M1.3      (May 5, 2024)   2.9E-03  

 

Forecast 162789 had expected this event in this area was likely around May 3. This epicenter is located at the fifth node (72 degrees) from the M 6.9 of March 23, 2024 and the earthquakes in Mindanao of recent months and the M 7.0 in Southern Xinjiang, China of January 22, 2024 and at the seventh node (51.4 degrees) from the M 6.9 in the Mariana Islands of M 6.9 of April 5, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.

 

O:  5MAY2024 08:27:46  52.8N  163.8W MW=5.2  EMSC   SOUTH OF ALASKA              

O: 05MAY2024 08:27:46  52.8N  163.8W mw=5.2  ANSS   SE of Akutan Alaska

P:  3MAY2024 162789    54.1N  164.4W 3.5-5.1 ABAAA  Unimak Islands, Aleutians  

 

An unusual earthquake of M 4.4 in also occurred in northern Utah today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to V in Thatcher, Utah. EMSC reported brief vibrations in Ogden, Utah. A foreshock of M 3.8 hit this area on May 4, 2024. In the previous issue of this summary this had been addressed as:

 

 

"An earthquake of M 3.8 was also felt in Utah today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to V in Thatcher, Utah. The last earthquake of M>=3.8 in Utah within about 150 km of this epicenter occurred on April 16, 2020 with M 4.2 - an aftershock of an M 5.7 on March 18, 2020. These events occurred about 100 km southeast of today's epicenter. At the time this summary noted:

 

"A moderately strong M 5.6-5.7 earthquake shook the Salt Lake City area of Utah today. It cut power to a large swatch of the city as well as the international airport. Work was suspended at many sites which included attempts to control the spread of the Corona Virus CORVID-19. The epicenter was about 16 km west of Salt Lake City in Magma, Utah. It damaged buildings throughout the region but no one was injured or killed according to early reports. At the Mormon Temple in Salt Lake City damage occurred to spires and figures. Internet pictures showed extensive damage to buildings with some collapses. The earthquake occurred at about 7 a.m. local time when rush hour often occurs. But many people were not on the roads, instead working at home due to restrictions on travel related to the Corona Virus Pandemic. Many schools were closed also because of the Virus. Most extensive damage occurred to downtown buildings but gas and chemical leaks occurred in Kennecott. NEIC reported maximum shaking VI (some damage) in Utah at Magna, Salt Lake City, North Salt Lake City; V in West Jordan, Herriman, IV in Centerville, Sandy, Farmington, Draper and other sites within about 50 km. Lesser shaking was reported in southwestern Montana, southern Idaho, Nevada, Wyoming, Colorado, and South Dakota. Reports of felt activity as far as more than 1000 km from the epicenter in Illinois, for example, were probably mistaken. The strongest aftershocks to date were of M 4.5 and  M 4.6  - events felt with intensity V in Magna, Salt Lake City, North Salt Lake City and West Jordan, Utah." (March 18, 2020, May 4, 2024)

 

The mainshock of M 4.2 may have been triggered by SFE from solar flare 9330 which was maximized within minutes of the M 4.2. SWPC data for this flare follows:

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

9330       2325   2343      2358   C4.1      (May 5, 2024)   6.7E-03  

 

Forecasts 162768 and 162726 had expected today's event in this region was likely in early May, 2024. This epicenter is located at 103 degrees from the M 6.9 in New Guinea of March 23, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 05MAY2024 23:30:15  41.6N  112.4W Mw=4.2  EMSC   UTAH

O: 06MAY2024 00:35:02  41.6N  112.4W ml=2.5  ANSS   SW of Thatcher Utah

O: 05MAY2024 23:30:13  41.6N  112.4W ml=4.4  ANSS   SW of Thatcher Utah

O:  6MAY2024 00:35:02  41.6N  112.4W ML=2.5  EMSC   UTAH                         

P:  2MAY2024 162768    43.0N  111.5W 2.0-4.0 BBAAA  Yellowstone/Wyoming        

 

An earthquake of M 2.2 was also located in southern Texas today. This is at an unusual epicenter. Seismicity has been high about 100-150 km east of today's epicenter in Southern Texas in recent years but activity in this area of Texas has been quiet since a series that started in 2021  finished up with an M 3.5 on

February 20, 2022. Solar Flare 8980 occurred less than an hour earlier and may have helped trigger this earthquake (see complete flare list for today in this issue below).

 

Forecast 162662 had expected enhanced seismicity in this area near Carrizo Springs, Texas was likely around May 3.

 

 

O:  5MAY2024 10:52:53  28.4N  100.1W ML=2.2  EMSC   SOUTHERN TEXAS               

O: 05MAY2024 10:52:53  28.4N  100.1W ml=2.2  ANSS   Carrizo Springs Texas

P:  3MAY2024 162662    28.0N   99.0W 3.0-4.4 AAAAA  Northern Mexico            

 

A series of moderate to moderately large events also occurred today in Ocean Ridge areas. These included events in the South Sandwich Islands (M 5.4) and in the central East Pacific Rise  (M 5.4) and in the West Chile Rise (M 4.9, 4.9).

 

The M 5.4 in the Central East Pacific Rise occurred at the end of Solar Flare 9150 (M1.3) near local solar noon and was probably promoted by SFE from that flare. Forecast 162606 had expected enhanced seismicity in this are was likely around May 5. This epicenter is at 144 degrees from the M 7.0 in Xinjiang, China of January 22, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O:  5MAY2024 17:12:55   6.0S  107.0W MW=5.4  EMSC   CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC RISE    

O: 05MAY2024 17:12:55   6.0S  107.1W mw=5.4  ANSS   central East Pacific Rise"

P:  5MAY2024 162606     4.0S  104.0W 4.0-5.6 ABCAA  No. East Pacific Rise      

 

The activity in the West Chile Rise had been expected in forecast 162838 to occur within about 200 km of this epicenter was likely around May 7. This epicenter is at 145 degrees from the M 7.4 in Taiwan of April 2, 2024 and was probably promoted by energy from that source.

 

O:  5MAY2024 19:33:39  37.2S   95.5W MB=4.9  EMSC   SOUTHEAST OF EASTER ISLAND   

O: 05MAY2024 19:33:39  37.2S   95.5W mb=4.9  ANSS   southeast of Easter Island"

O: 05MAY2024 19:27:37  37.3S   94.8W mb=4.9  ANSS   West Chile Rise"

O: 05MAY2024 19:27:38  37.3S   94.8W mb=4.9  EMSC   WEST CHILE RISE

P:  7MAY2024 162838    36.0S   97.0W 4.0-5.8 ABAAA  Chile Rise                 

 

The M 5.4 in the South Sandwich Islands occurred near local solar noon and accompanied an M1.3 solar flare (9090) within about a minute of the official start of that flare. Data on that flare from SWPC follow:

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

9090       1433   1447      1456   M1.3      (May 5, 2024)   1.4E-02  

 

Forecast 162853 had expected today's event in the South Sandwich Islands was likely within about 50 km around May 7.

 

O:  5MAY2024 14:34:15  58.6S   25.7W MW=5.4  EMSC   SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

O: 05MAY2024 14:34:17  58.5S   25.6W mw=5.4  ANSS   South Sandwich Islands region"

P:  7MAY2024 162853    58.0S   26.0W 4.0-5.8 AAAAA  So. Sandwich Islands       

 

An unusually large earthquake also occurred in the Dominican Republic today. This event followed the M 5.4 in the South Sandwich Islands by about four minutes and four minutes after the calculated beginning of Solar Flare 9090 (see above). This earthquake is the strongest in the Dominican Republic within about 150 km of this epicenter since an M 4.6 on October 27, 2022 and an M 4.7 on October 23, 2022.

 

At that time this summary noted:

 

"An earthquake of M 4.5 also shook the area of the Dominican Republic today.

NEIC reported this earthquake of M 4.6 in Puerto Rico was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of the Dominican Republic at Santo Domingo and in Puerto Rico at San Sebastian and Bayamon. This continues elevated seismicity in the Dominican Republic of the past several days which included an M 4.4-4.7 on October 23 and an M M 4.7 on October 1, 2022. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

 

"The only earthquake in the Dominican Republic in the past two years with M>4.7 was an M 5.0 about 50 km southeast of this on June 14, 2021. An M 4.6-4.7 hit about 300 km northwest of this epicenter on July 31, 2022. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"A moderate earthquake of M 5.0 occurred today midway between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Higuey, Dominican Republic and II-III in the Dominican Republic at Boca de Yuma, Otra Banda La Altagracia, La Romana, San Pedro de Marcoris, Los Llanos,and in Puerto Rico at Aguada, Cabo Rojo, Mayaguez and Anasco. It was preceded by an M 4.1 foreshock felt with intensity IV in Otra Banda and II in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. NEIC reported these earthquake in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic were felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of Puerto Rico at Mayaguez and Gurabo. The solar eclipse of June 10 was first visible in this area of the northern Caribbean as previously discussed in this summary..." (October 2, 2022)

 

Today's earthquake also was associated with a solar eclipse on October 25 (see above). It occurred within minutes of local solar noon" (October 27, 2022)

 

Forecast 162646 had expected today's event within about 50 km was likely around May 3. This epicenter is at 145 degrees from the M 7.0 in Xinjiang, China of January 22, 2024 and from the M 6.9 in New Guinea of March 23, 2024 and was likely promoted by energy from that source.

 

 

O:  5MAY2024 14:38:10  18.5N   68.7W MD=4.4  EMSC   DOMINICAN REPUBLIC           

O: 05MAY2024 14:38:10  18.5N   68.7W md=4.5  ANSS   de Hig├╝ey Dominican Republic

P:  3MAY2024 162646    18.0N   69.0W 3.4-5.0 AAAAA  Puerto Rico                

 

 

An M 5.4 also occurred today in Tonga. This occurred at the end of the X1.3 Solar Flare (8810). Data for this flare is given by SWPC as:

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

8810       0533   0559      0703   X1.3      (May 5, 2024)   6.3E-02  

 

Forecast 162819 had expected today's event within about 25 km was likely in Tonga around May 5, 2024. This epicenter is at 101 degrees from the M 6.7 in Brazil of January 20, 2024 and at the fifth node (72 degrees) from the M 7.5 in western Honshu of January 1, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.

 

O:  5MAY2024 07:13:41  19.3S  175.9W MB=5.4  EMSC   TONGA                        

O: 05MAY2024 07:13:39  19.3S  175.9W mb=5.4  ANSS   WNW of Pangai Tonga

P:  5MAY2024 162819    19.0S  176.0W 4.0-5.4 AAAAA  Tonga Islands              

 

An earthquake of M 5.4 also occurred today in the region of Eastern New Guinea.

NEIC reported this earthquake of M 5.4 in Papua New Guinea was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of  Papua New Guinea in Lae.  This earthquake occurred near local solar midnight and was probably triggered  by Solar Flare 9120 - an M2.2 flare which maximized at the time of this event. Data for this flare from SWPC is given as:

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

9120       1528   1538      1551   M2.2      (May 5, 2024)   2.4E-02  

 

Forecast 172604 had expected this event was likely around May 9 within about 100 km of this epicenter.

 

O:  5MAY2024 15:40:23   5.8S  146.7E MB=5.4  EMSC   EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G

P:  9MAY2024 162604     5.0S  146.0E 4.0-5.4 BAAAA  New Ireland                

 

 

MODERATELY STRONG QUAKE IN YAP WITH X1.3 SOLAR FLARE

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MAY 4, 2024

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.6 in Yap, Micronesia.  This earthquake occurred at the start of a strong X1.3 solar flare (#8810) and at the end of flare 8800 (C5.5) and was probably promoted by SFE from these solar flares. It is located on the geomagnetic equator at a sub-solar latitude. The sun was directly over this epicenter two hours earlier (at its zenith) today, May 5, 2024 -  a condition which is most likely to promote SFE triggering of seismicity.

 

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

8800       0525   0542      0547   C5.5      (May 5, 2024)   1.7E-03  

8810       0544*  0601      0607   X1.3      (May 5, 2024)   6.3E-02  

 

*Actual start vs calculated start at 0547 UT

 

Today's event of M 5.6 is the strongest in the State of Yap since an M 6.0 on February 14, 2024 about 300 km to the west of today's epicenter. It is the largest within 200 km since an event of M 5.8 on December 23, 2019. An M 6.2 also occurred nearly 200 km from today's epicenter on July 6, 2020. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The area of Yap,  Micronesia and the northern Marianas was active today. These surround the local geomagnetic equator and were expected to see enhanced seismicity at this time (see above). The strongest of these was an M 6.2 in the State of Yap, Micronesia. This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 6.3 on September 26, 1993, the only other such event  in the area in the past 30 years." (July 6, 2020)

 

Forecast 162647 had expected enhanced seismicity within about 100 km of today's epicenter was likely around May 10, 2024. This epicenter is at the fifth node (72 degrees) from the M 6.8 in Macquarie of March 3, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from that source

 

O:  5MAY2024 05:44:19  10.9N  141.2E MB=5.6  EMSC   STATE OF YAP, MICRONESIA     

P: 10MAY2024 162647    11.0N  140.0E 4.0-5.4 BAAAA  So. Marianas/Guam          

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.3 off the coast of Oregon. NEIC reported it may have been felt with intensity up to III along the Oregon coast. This is the strongest earthquake off the coast of Oregon since an M 5.7 on March 27, 2024 about 300 km east of today's epicenter. The last earthquake of equal or larger magnitude within about 200 km of today's event was an M 4.7 on October 2, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.7 in the region

off the coast of Oregon.  The last earthquake off the coast of Oregon with larger magnitude occurred with M 5.0 in a swarm of moderate regional events on January 11, 2023 and a series of moderate regional events in mid-December, 2022 which included a maximum event of M 4.9." (October 2, 2023)

 

Forecast 162755 had expected enhanced seismicity off the coast of Oregon in this area was likely around May 8, 2024. This epicenter is at the fifth node (72 degrees) from the M 6.8 in Brazil of January 20, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O:  4MAY2024 19:16:37  43.9N  129.3W MB=4.3  EMSC   OFF COAST OF OREGON          

O: 04MAY2024 19:16:37  43.9N  129.3W mb=4.3  ANSS   the coast of Oregon

P:  8MAY2024 162755    44.5N  129.8W 3.0-4.6 BAAAA  Off Coast of Oregon        

 

An earthquake of M 3.8 was also felt in Utah today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to V in Thatcher, Utah. The last earthquake of M>=3.8 in Utah within about 150 km of this epicenter occurred on April 16, 2020 with M 4.2 - an aftershock of an M 5.7 on March 18, 2020. These events occurred about 100 km southeast of today's epicenter. At the time this summary noted:

 

"A moderately strong M 5.6-5.7 earthquake shook the Salt Lake City area of Utah today. It cut power to a large swatch of the city as well as the international airport. Work was suspended at many sites which included attempts to control the spread of the Corona Virus CORVID-19. The epicenter was about 16 km west of Salt Lake City in Magma, Utah. It damaged buildings throughout the region but no one was injured or killed according to early reports. At the Mormon Temple in Salt Lake City damage occurred to spires and figures. Internet pictures showed extensive damage to buildings with some collapses. The earthquake occurred at about 7 a.m. local time when rush hour often occurs. But many people were not on the roads, instead working at home due to restrictions on travel related to the Corona Virus Pandemic. Many schools were closed also because of the Virus. Most extensive damage occurred to downtown buildings but gas and chemical leaks occurred in Kennecott. NEIC reported maximum shaking VI (some damage) in Utah at Magna, Salt Lake City, North Salt Lake City; V in West Jordan, Herriman, IV in Centerville, Sandy, Farmington, Draper and other sites within about 50 km. Lesser shaking was reported in southwestern Montana, southern Idaho, Nevada, Wyoming, Colorado, and South Dakota. Reports of felt activity as far as more than 1000 km from the epicenter in Illinois, for example, were probably mistaken. The strongest aftershocks to date were of M 4.5 and  M 4.6  - events felt with intensity V in Magna, Salt Lake City, North Salt Lake City and West Jordan, Utah." (March 18, 2020)

 

 

Forecasts 162768 and 162726 had expected today's event in this region was likely in early May, 2024.

 

O:  4MAY2024 08:36:46  41.6N  112.4W ML=3.8  EMSC   UTAH                         

P:  2MAY2024 162768    43.0N  111.5W 2.0-4.0 ABAAA  Yellowstone/Wyoming        

P:  7MAY2024 162726    39.8N  112.7W 2.0-3.9 BBAAA  Utah area                  

 

An unusual earthquake of M 4.5 hit the region of Malawi, East Africa today.

NEIC reported this earthquake of M 4.5  in Malawi was felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of  Malawi in Livingstonia.  This is the strongest earthquake in Malawi since an M 4.6 on January 7, 2022 about 400 km to the south of today's epicenter. The last event of M>=4.5 in Malawi within about 200 km of today's epicenter occurred on August 24, 2020 with M 5.0 and prior to that an M 5.1 on December 31, 2014. An earthquake of M 6.0 hit near today's epicenter on December 19, 2009. At the time this summary noted:

 

"Strong earthquakes of M 6.4-6.8 and M 6.0 hit the regions of Taiwan and  Malawi respectively today.

 

...

 

 

 

The earthquake in Malawi and Tanzania was felt with intensity III in Mzuzu

City with intensity III. The epicenter of the Malawi earthquake was located at 90-91 degrees from the earlier Taiwan earthquake. This is the fourth node from Taiwan where seismicity often is increased following strong earthquakes. While this event occurred in an area where a strong swarm has occurred in recent days, the major portion of this swarm appeared to be over. Today's event was likely promoted by seismic energy from Taiwan." (December 19, 2009)

 

Today's earthquake appears to have been triggered by stresses associated with landfall of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya today as reported in this and previous issues of this summary:

 

"TC Hidaya (23S) formed today in the area  of Malawi in central Africa with winds up to 70 kts.   Some seismic enhancement in eastern Africa along the East African Rift Valley in Malawi and Tanganyika is possible with this storm. The antipode at 7N 145W in the North Pacific is not seismic." (May 2-5, 2024)

 

TC Hidaya also appears to have triggered an M 4.8 earthquake in Tanganyika on May 2, 2024.

 

Forecast 162333 had expected enhanced activity in northern Malawi was likely around April 30, 2024. This epicenter is at 103 degrees from the M 6.7 in  Brazil of January 20, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from that epicenter.

 

 

O:  4MAY2024 18:05:39  10.6S   34.2E MB=4.5  EMSC   MALAWI                       

O: 04MAY2024 18:05:39  10.6S   34.2E mb=4.5  ANSS   E of Livingstonia Malawi

P: 30APR2024 162333     6.0S   36.0E 4.0-5.5 BCBAA  Indian Ocean               

 

A pair of earthquakes also shook central New Zealand today with M 4.5 and 4.3. The strongest of these occurred at the start of flare 8670 near local solar noon and was probably promoted by SFE associated with that moderately large solar flare. SWPC parameters for this flare follow:

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

8670       2223   2237      2254   M3.2      (May 4, 2024)   3.4E-02  

 

GEONET reported the M 4.5 was felt with moderate to strong intensity in the area southeast of Wellington, and Porangahau, New Zealand and in southern North Island and northern South Island. 2993 reports of felt events were made of which 1467 reported weak and 1313 light intensity with 188 reports of moderate shaking and 20 with strong and 1 severe and 3 with extreme intensity came from the area.

GEONET reported the M 4.3 was felt with light intensity in the area of Hammer Springs, New Zealand and in southern North Island. Of 19 felt reports 9 reports of weak and 8 of light intensity with 2 of moderate shaking and 0 with strong 0 with severe and 0 with extreme intensity came from the area.

NEIC reported this earthquake of M 4.4 in North Island, New Zealand was felt with intensity up to V in the area(s) of  North Island, New Zealand in Pahiatua.

EMSC reported light shaking in Palmerston, North Island, New Zealand.

The M 4.5 occurred near local solar noon and may have been promoted by strong tidal or geomagnetic effects which maximize near this hour.

 

Forecast 162847 had expected this event of M 4.5 within about 50 km was likely around May 5, 2024.  This epicenter is at 103 degrees from the M 6.7 in  Brazil of January 20, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from that epicenter.

 

O: 04MAY2024 15:36:50  42.1S  173.5E MS=4.2  GEONET South Island, New Zealand

O:  4MAY2024 22:24:49  40.6S  175.9E ML=4.4  EMSC   NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND  

O: 04MAY2024 22:24:50  40.5S  176.3E ML=4.5  GEONET North Island, New Zealand

P:  5MAY2024 162847    41.0S  176.0E 3.0-5.1 AAAAA  So. Island, N.Z.           

 

 

MODERATELY STRONG QUAKES IN ASCENSION ISLAND; LEYTE, PHILIPPINES WITH FLARES

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MAY 3, 2024

 

Most of the moderately strong to strong earthquakes today continued to be closely associated with major solar flares. These included an M 5.8, the strongest earthquake of the day in the Ascension Island area of the Central Atlantic and an M 5.7 in Leyte, Philippines which was widely felt. Other events

of moderate size also coincided with major flares today including an M 4.6 and M 4.7 in the Volcano Islands, Japan with the strongest flare (X1.6) since February, 2024 and an M 5.3 in Vanuatu as well as an M 4.7 in New Britain and an 4.5-5.1 in South Island, New Zealand. The temporal relations between flares and earthquakes can be found in this summary under the "FLARE" section. 

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.8 in the area north of Ascension Island in the central mid-Atlantic. It may have been lightly felt in this area according to NEIC. This event at the end of an  C6.7 solar flare (#7750) and may have promoted by SFE from that flare.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

7750       0521   0527      0533   C6.7      (May 4, 2024)   4.8E-03  

 

This earthquake in the area north of Ascension Island is the strongest within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 6.3 on October 23, 2019.  At that time this summary noted:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.3 in the Central Atlantic north of Ascension Island. It was not reported felt in this remote area. This epicenter is at 102 degrees from the M 7.1 in Central California of July 6, 2019 and 103 degrees from Central California which has seen activation in recent days and may see additional enhanced seismicity following the Ascension Island event. Energy is concentrated at this distance from large events due to reflections and refractions off internal earth boundaries and seismic enhancement often is seen in this distance zone following strong quakes. The last event within about 300 km of today's Atlantic quake with M>=6.3 was an M 6.6 on August 18, 2017 and prior to that an M 6.3 more than 10 years ago on November 22, 2008. The strongest quake in the area in the past 30 years was an M 6.9 on August 28, 1992 two months after the M 7.6 in Lander, California in June 1992." (October 23, 2019)

 

Forecast 163450 had expected this earthquake within this area was likely to occur at the end of April or early May, 2024.

 

O:  4MAY2024 05:52:35   1.2S   14.3W MB=5.8  EMSC   NORTH OF ASCENSION ISLAND    

P: 30APR2024 162340     2.0S   13.0W 4.0-5.7 BABAA  No. of Ascension Isl       

 

The strongest earthquake felt in the world today was an M 5.7  in northern Mindanao, Philippines. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to VI in Balangiga, Philippines. EMSC reported moderate shaking in the Philippines at Tacloban City, Ormoc City, Mandaue City, Cebu City, Las Navas, PHIVOLCS reported intensity IV in Abuyog, Leyte; V in Burauen, Dulag, La Pax, MacArthur, Mahaplag, Mayorga, Tabontabon, Tanauan and Tolosa, Leyte and Hinunangan and Silago, Southern Leyte and IV in Jagna, Bohol, Balangiga, Balangkayan, City of Borongan, General MacArthur, Giporlos, Guiuan, Hernani, Lawaan, Llorente, Maydolong, Mercedes, Quinapondan, Salcedo, and San Julian, Eastern Samar as well as the Cities of Ormoc and Tacoban, Southern Leyte and the Dinagat Islands. Intensity II-III was reported in Eastern Samar, Leyte, Northern Samar, Samar, Southern Leyte, Surigao Del Norte, Cebu, Biliran, Eastern Samar, Northern and Southern Samar. This epicenter was near the sub-solar point at local solar noon when flare 7680 occurred and this earthquake occurred near local solar noon. It is at the sub-solar point where Solar Flare Effects (SFE) ought to be maximized in terms of resulting seismicity. It is likely this event in Mindanao, Philippines was promoted by SFE from flare 7680.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

7680       0211   0222      0227   X1.6      (May 3, 2024)   6.0E-02  

 

The last earthquake with M>=5.7 in this region was an M 5.7 about 100 km northeast of this on November 2, 2023. An M 7.6 in Bohol, Philippines occurred (with great loss of life and damage) as an M 7.6 on August 31, 2013 about 150 km east of today's epicenter but the last event  with significantly larger magnitude than M 5.7 in this region was an M 6.0 on March 8, 2019. At that time this summary noted:

 

"A strong earthquake of M 6.0-6.3 in Northern Mindanao/Leyte, Philippines today continued the activation near 120 degrees East Longitude which was expected with high tidal effects from the new moon. Today's earthquake was reported by NEIC to have been felt in Caraga, Philippines with intensity II in Sapao, Pilar, Purok, Brasilisa, Calver, Tandag and in the Eastern Visayas at Batangiga, Sogod, Javier, Baybay.

...

 

No major damage was reported. This summary had anticipated this event in the previous report as:

 

"A pair of moderate earthquakes of M 4.2 and 4.3 also shook Leyte, Philippines today. PHIVOLCS reported the M 4.2 was felt with intensity III in Guiuan and Salcedo, Eastern Samar and II in Gen McArthur and Hernani, Eastern Samar, Philippines. The M 4.3 was felt with intensity V in Hinunangan, Southern Leyte; IV in Silago, Hinundayanm St Bernard, San Francisco, San Juan and Anahawan, Southern Leyte; III in Bontoc, Southern Laytem Abuyog Leyte and II in Dulag, Leytem Philippines. These events occurred near the longitude of maximum tidal stress from the new moon yesterday. A strong earthquake is possible in this active zone associated with the new moon in the next several days. Forecast 113963 had expected this activity was likely in early March." (March 7-8, 2019)

 

...

 

Another factor which probably promoted this earthquake at this time was the occurrence of a C-class solar flare which occurred while this epicenter was sub-solar, a prime time for solar flare triggering. This epicenter was directly beneath the sun - at high noon - when the flare occurred." (March 8, 2019)

 

Forecast 162634 had expected today's event within about 100 km was likely around May 3 in Luzon, Philippines.

 

O:  3MAY2024 10:16:23  10.9N  125.3E MW=5.7  ANSS   SSW OF BALANGIGA PHILIPPINES 

P:  3MAY2024 162634    10.0N  126.0E 3.5-5.0 AAAAA  Luzon, Philippines         

 

Two earthquakes of M 4.6 and M 4.7 also coincided with 7680 (X1.6) in the Volcano Islands of Japan (see data above). These followed at the end of this solar flare and occurred within minutes of local solar noon in the area of the Volcano Islands and were strongly affected by the X1.6 solar flare directly overhead at the time and were probably triggered by SFE from that flare.

 

Forecast 162668 had expected this activity within about 200 km was likely around May 4 in the Volcano Islands.

 

O: 04MAY2024 02:38:39  23.2N  143.8E mb=4.7  EMSC   VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

O:  4MAY2024 02:53:37  23.0N  144.0E MB=4.6  EMSC   VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

P:  4MAY2024 162668    21.0N  144.0E 4.0-5.5 BAAAA  Volcano Islands            

 

An M 5.3 also struck Vanuatu shortly after solar flare 7680 near local solar noon today. It is likely it too, was promoted by SFE associated with that flare. Forecast 162821 had expected this event within about 50 km of this epicenter was likely around May 4, 2024.

 

O:  4MAY2024 03:17:42  14.7S  167.2E MW=5.3  EMSC   VANUATU                      

P:  4MAY2024 162821    15.0S  167.0E 4.0-5.5 AAAAA  Vanuatu Islands            

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.3 in southern Alaska. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Anchor Point, Alaska. EMSC reported light shaking in Diamond Ridge, Alaska. This earthquake occurred near local solar noon and may have been triggered by strong tidal stresses which maximize with strong geomagnetic storms near this hour. The last earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter with M>=4.7 occurred on December 16, 2023 but the last such event of significantly larger size in this region was an M 5.9 on December 21, 2021. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today occurred in the Kenai area of Southern Alaska with M 5.9. NEIC reported maximum intensity V in southern Alaska at West Kenai, and IV in Anchor Point, Ninilchik, Calm Gulch, Kasilof, Soldotna, Homer, Sterling, Pedro Bay and North Lake among other communities in southern Alaska. This earthquake occurred on a day when the Wolf Sunspot number was the highest since the last solar active period six years ago and reached 90-169 on September 16-27, 2015

 

...

 

Two flares of M-class were reported by SWPC today, the largest occurred near local solar midnight in southern Alaska. Several C4.9 solar flares were also recorded. One of these occurred with maximum within minutes of the M 5.9 in southern Alaska and may have helped trigger that event through SFE." (December 21, 2021)

 

Like the event of December 21, 2021 today's event in Alaska also occurred a day after a strong disturbance in the geomagnetic field. On May 2, AP at high latitudes reached 64, the strongest storm since AP at high latitudes reached 100 on March 24, 2024.

 

 

Forecast 162794 had expected today's event in southern Alaska within about 50 km was likely around May 5, 2024.

 

O:  3MAY2024 09:29:31  60.0N  152.8W MB=4.6  EMSC   SOUTHERN ALASKA              

P:  5MAY2024 162794    60.3N  153.0W 3.2-4.9 AAAAA  Central Alaska             

 

 

MODERATE TO STRONG QUAKES CONTINUE AFTER MAJOR SOLAR FLARES

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MAY 2, 2024

 

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.0 in British Columbia, Canada. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to V in Tofino, Canada. This was the largest earthquake in the world today outside the swarm in the Fox Islands, Aleutians which included events of M 5.5, 5.5 and 5.6 among others. The earthquake in British Columbia was not at a typical epicenter for the region but occurred in Vancouver Island where it was widely felt.

This earthquake occurred at the tail end of a major X-class solar flare (#7680) with parameters give by SWPC as:

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

7680       0211   0222      0227   X1.6      (May 3, 2024)   6.0E-02  

 

The last flare recorded with greater energy than today's X1.6 was an X6.3 on February 22, 2024 (#2090).

 

Longitudes which were at local solar noon at the time of this flare are near 140 East and maximum Solar Flare Effects (SFE) from this flare are expected from southeast Asia to Kamchatka, the Philippines, Japan and Indonesia where enhanced seismicity is expected following this flare. Strong geomagnetic storms are expected in the next two days as the CME from this storm arrives in the earth environment.

 

The last earthquake within about 150 km of today's M 5.0 in the Vancouver Island of Canada with equal or larger magnitude occurred as an M 5.4 on July 22, 2020 and prior to that an M 5.4 on December 9, 2018 but today's event south of 49 degrees North s the first in this region since an M 5.1-5.2 on April 27, 2008. A strong M 6.0 hit near today's epicenter on September 13, 2001  following a series of moderate earthquakes starting on September 12, 2001. Readers may recall that the bombing of the New York Trade Towers occurred on September 11, 2001 the day before this. 

 

Forecast 162765 had expected today's event within about 50 km was likely around May 4, 2024.

 

O: 03MAY2024 03:13:51  48.8N  128.8W MB=3.5  ECAN OF PORT HARDY, BC  

O: 03MAY2024 00:38:05  48.7N  128.8W MB=2.3  ECAN OF PORT HARDY, BC  

O:  3MAY2024 03:03:30  48.8N  128.8W MW=5.0  EMSC   VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGIO

P:  4MAY2024 162765    49.3N  129.0W 2.8-5.1 AAAAA  Vancouver Island area      

 

 

Among the areas expected to be most affected by flare 7680 was southeast Asia. The most unusual earthquake in the world today was an M 4.6 in Laos. This event earthquake occurred four minutes after the M 5.0 in British Columbia. This earthquake occurred near local solar noon less than an hour after the maximum output of flare 7680 and was probably promoted by SFE from that flare. The only earthquake in the Laos area in the past 35 years within about  150 km of today's epicenter was an M 4.4 on January 27, 2017. A set of earthquakes in the are about 200 km southeast of today's epicenter occurred in Vietnam beginning  on April 14, 2022 and  ending as an M 4.6 on September 22, 2023. The largest of these was an M 4.9 on April 18, 2022. It was closely associated with an X1.1 solar flare on April 17, 2022 (#7140) which, like today's event, occurred near local solar noon in Laos.  At the time of the M 4.3 on April 14, 2022 this summary noted:

 

 

"SWPC expects a major solar storm to hit the earth environment on April 14. This could bring a strong to major earthquake in the next several days. This is most likely at high latitudes or near the geomagnetic equator, in areas such as Indonesia and the southwest Pacific and Alaska through northern Europe and Kamchatka to the Aleutians. This is most likely to begin late in the UT day.  Disruptions to satellites and induced currents in the earth are also possible with storms such as this.

 

...

 

 

An unusual earthquake occurred south of China in Vietnam with M 4.3 today.  NEIC reported this earthquake of M 4.3 in Vietnam was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of Vietnam in Danang. The last earthquake located in Vietnam in the past two years was an M 4.5 in northern Vietnam about 800 km northwest of today's epicenter on March 14, 2022. The only similar earthquake within about 300 km of today's epicenter in Vietnam in the past 30 years was an M 4.3-4.4 on January 27, 2017.  That earthquake occurred with the new moon and, like today's may have been promoted by high tidal stresses. Today's event occurred within about an hour or local solar midnight, a time when tidal stresses maximize." (April 19, 2022)

 

Forecast 162375 had expected enhanced seismicity in southeast Asia at the end of April or early May, 2024.

 

O:  3MAY2024 03:07:28  15.6N  106.8E ML=4.2  EMSC   LAOS                         

P: 27APR2024 162375    10.0N  108.0E 3.0-4.5 CCAAA  Southeast Asia             

 

Moderately strong earthquakes also continued today in the swarm in the Fox  Island, Aleutians, Alaska. Like the event in Laos today, this swarm also is occurring in an area which was at local solar noon when a strong solar flare - M9.5 - occurred earlier in the day. This was reported in this  summary in the previous issue as:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.5 in the area of Nikolski, Fox Islands, Aleutians, Alaska. It was not reported felt in this remote area. A series of moderate aftershock including those of M 5.1, 5.3, 5.5, 3.9, 4.0, 4.0 followed the mainshock. These earthquakes follow a major solar flare which occurred when this epicenter was at local solar noon. SWPC gave that flare the following parameters:

 

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

7070       2323   2346      2358   M9.5      (April 30, 2024)   6.9E-02  

 

This summary noted it in the previous issue of this summary as:

 

 

A major M9.5 to X1.0 solar flare occurred late on April 30 and early on May 1, 2024. This flare caused widespread radio blackouts in the Pacific region.

The last solar flare of equal or greater energy was an X1.1 (#9360) on March 28, 2024 several days before the M 7.4 earthquake in Taiwan. A larger X5.0 (#40) occurred on December 31, 2023 followed by an M 7.6 earthquake in Western Honshu, Japan on January 1, 2024. Today's event of M9.5 began at 23:23 UT and continued into early May 1, 2024. The longitude which was at exactly local solar noon at this time was 170 West - and has seismic areas in the Fox and Andreanof Islands, Aleutians, Alaska and in the Tonga-Fiji-New Zealand arc in the south. The major radio blackout was concentrated in this region and enhanced seismicity is most likely in this longitude band in the next several days - especially since this area was tidally stressed with the full moon of April 23" (May 2, 2024)

 

Forecasts 162773, 162776 and 162509 had expected today's activity in the Fox Islands was likely within about 50 km of these epicenters in late April or early May, 2024. This activity is at 101 degrees from the M 6.7 in Brazil of January 20, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

 

O: 02MAY2024 07:24:16  52.0N  169.3W ML=3.7  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

O: 02MAY2024 07:26:17  52.0N  169.3W ML=3.7  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

O: 02MAY2024 07:35:56  52.0N  169.2W ML=3.0  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

O: 02MAY2024 20:23:25  52.0N  169.3W mb=4.0  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

O: 02MAY2024 06:58:00  52.1N  169.4W Mw=5.5  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

O: 02MAY2024 07:01:49  52.1N  169.4W mb=5.1  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

O: 02MAY2024 07:06:26  52.1N  169.5W Mw=5.3  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

O: 02MAY2024 07:10:52  52.1N  169.4W Mw=5.4  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

O: 02MAY2024 07:17:39  52.1N  169.3W ML=3.6  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

O: 02MAY2024 07:41:51  52.1N  169.3W ML=4.0  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

O: 02MAY2024 11:05:28  52.1N  169.4W mb=4.7  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

O: 02MAY2024 16:26:09  52.1N  169.4W mb=3.7  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

O: 02MAY2024 07:42:22  52.2N  169.3W mb=4.0  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

O:  2MAY2024 07:04:25  52.0N  169.3W ML=4.5  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

P:  6MAY2024 162776    51.9N  169.2W 3.5-5.1 BAAAA  Fox Islands, Aleutians     

P: 27APR2024 162509    52.5N  169.2W 3.5-5.1 BAAAA  Fox Islands, Aleutians     

 

An earthquake of M 4.8 also occurred today in the East African Rift Valley near Lake Tanganyika, Tanganyika. It occurred near local solar noon and is likely to have been promoted by strong tidal stresses which maximize near this hour.  NEIC reported this earthquake of M 4.8 in Tanzania was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of  Tanzania in Kigoma. The only earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter with equal or larger magnitude in the past four years was an M  4.9 on August 23, 2023. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

"An unusual quake of M 4.9 occurred today in the region of Tanzania. NEIC reported maximum intensity IV in Gitega, Burundi and Kigali Ville de Kigali, Rwanda and III in Kigoma, Tanzania at Kigoma and Kasulu. The only earthquake of M>4.9 in Tanzania or Lake Tanganyika areas within about 250 km of this epicenter occurred with M 5.0 about 250 km northwest of today's epicenter. Today's event occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and may have been promoted by high tidal stresses which maximize near this hour." (August 4, 2023)

 

Today's earthquake may have been promoted by strong stresses associated with

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya which is currently located off the coast of Tanzania and Tanganyika as noted in this and previous issues of this summary as:

 

"TC Hidaya (23S) formed today in the area east of Tanzania in central Africa with winds up to 45 kts.   Some seismic enhancement in eastern Africa along the East African Rift Valley is possible with this storm. The antipode at 9N 135W in the North Pacific is not seismic." (May 2-3, 2024)

 

Forecast 162334 had expected enhanced seismicity within about 150 km of today's epicenter was likely in late April.

 

O:  2MAY2024 08:27:10   4.9S   29.6E MB=4.8  EMSC   LAKE TANGANYIKA REGION       

P: 24APR2024 162334     6.0S   30.0E 3.0-4.4 CBAAA  Lake Victoria area         

 

STRONG SWARM HITS FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIANS, ALASKA

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MAY 1, 2024

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.6 in the area of Nikolski, Fox Islands, Aleutians, Alaska. It was not reported felt in this remote area. A series of moderate aftershock including those of M 5.1, 5.3, 5.5, 3.9, 4.0, 4.0 followed the mainshock. These earthquakes follow a major solar flare which occurred when this epicenter was at local solar noon. SWPC gave that flare the following parameters:

 

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

7070       2323   2346      2358   M9.5      (April 30, 2024)   6.9E-02  

 

This summary noted it in the previous issue of this summary as:

 

 

“A major M9.5 to X1.0 solar flare occurred late on April 30 and early on May 1, 2024. This flare caused widespread radio blackouts in the Pacific region.

The last solar flare of equal or greater energy was an X1.1 (#9360) on March 28, 2024 several days before the M 7.4 earthquake in Taiwan. A larger X5.0 (#40) occurred on December 31, 2023 followed by an M 7.6 earthquake in Western Honshu, Japan on January 1, 2024. Today's event of M9.5 began at 23:23 UT and continued into early May 1, 2024. The longitude which was at exactly local solar noon at this time was 170 West - and has seismic areas in the Fox and Andreanof Islands, Aleutians, Alaska and in the Tonga-Fiji-New Zealand arc in the south. The major radio blackout was concentrated in this region and enhanced seismicity is most likely in this longitude band in the next several days - especially since this area was tidally stressed with the full moon of April 23 as reported in previous issues of this summary:

 

 

"The full moon will arrive on April 23, 2024 at 23:49 UT.  Longitudes which are at local solar midnight at this time are located at about 5 East while those at local solar noon are near 175 West. In the east these include most of western Europe and Iceland while in the west areas of the western Aleutians, Alaska, Hawaii, Tonga/Fiji/Kermadec Islands, New Zealand to the Balleny Islands and portions of the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge are included. These are the most likely areas to see significant tidal triggering with this full moon. Other areas may also see tidal promotion in the next week especially at times of large solar flares and near local solar midnight and solar noon. The likelihood of a strong associated earthquake with this full moon are moderate to high." (April 20-26, 2024)

(May 1, 2024)

 

A light foreshock in the Fox Islands yesterday was also noted in the previous issue of this summary as:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 3.5 in the Fox

Islands, Aleutians, Alaska. It was not reported felt in this remote area. It occurred near local solar noon and may have been affected by strong tidal effects which maximize near this hour. It occurred minutes before the M9.5 solar flare which is discussed above. More and larger events in this area of the Fox Islands are likely in the next several days as discussed in this summary issue. An earthquake of M 4.7 hit this area of the Fox Islands on April 10, 2024 - two days after the solar eclipse of April 8, 2024. It was discussed at the time in this summary as:

 

 

"The strongest earthquakes in the U.S. or Canada today were an M 4.7 in the eastern Andreanof Islands, Alaska and an M 4.8 in the Unimak Islands. The event in the western Andreanof Islands was reported felt with intensity II (by NEIC) in Atka, Alaska. The last earthquake of M>=4.7 in the area of today's Andreanof Island event occurred as an M 4.8 on February 12, 2024 and December 4, 2023. The last event of significantly larger magnitude in that area was an M 5.6 on October 12, 2023. At that time this summary noted:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.6 in the western Fox Islands, Aleutians, Alaska. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Atka, Alaska. The last earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter with equal of larger magnitude occurred on September 27, 2020 and October 26, 2019 with M 5.6 and 5.9.

 

It is likely that this event was promoted by strong tidal stresses associated with upcoming new moon and eclipse which passes over this epicenter early on  October 14. Further enhanced seismicity in the Aleutians is likely with the new moon and eclipse in the next several days. This could include a strong earthquake." (October 12, 2023)

 

Today's event in the Fox Islands occurred within minutes of local solar noon and was probably promoted by strong tidal stresses which maximize near this hour." (April 10, 2024, May 1, 2024)

 

Forecasts 162773 and 162509 had expected today's activity in the Fox Islands was likely within about 50 km of these epicenters in late April or early May, 2024. This activity is at 101 degrees from the M 6.7 in Brazil of January 20, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 02MAY2024 06:58:00  52.1N  169.4W Mw=5.5  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

O: 02MAY2024 07:01:49  52.1N  169.4W mb=5.1  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

O: 02MAY2024 07:06:26  52.1N  169.5W mb=5.0  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

O: 02MAY2024 07:17:37  52.1N  169.4W mb=3.9  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

O: 02MAY2024 07:24:14  52.1N  169.4W mb=4.0  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

O: 02MAY2024 07:10:50  52.2N  169.4W mb=5.6  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

O:  2MAY2024 07:04:25  52.0N  169.3W ML=4.5  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

P:  3MAY2024 162773    52.2N  171.5W 3.5-4.9 AABAA  Andreanoff Isls, Aleutians 

P: 27APR2024 162509    52.5N  169.2W 3.5-5.1 BAAAA  Fox Islands, Aleutians     

 

 

A moderately strong earthquake in the South Sandwich Islands of M 5.6 preceded the M 5.5 in the Fox Islands by 21.5 minutes. These epicenters are separated by 160 degrees. A foreshock in the South Sandwich Islands occurred 43 minutes before the mainshock with M 5.0. This follows similar activity in the South Sandwich Islands yesterday as described in the previous issue of this summary:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.6 in the South Sandwich Islands. This follows reactivation of this region in the past four days with events of M 4.9 and 5.0 on April 25 and 26, 2024. The M 5.6 is the strongest in the  South Sandwich Islands since an M 5.7 on February 14, 2024 - more than two months ago." (May 1, 2024)

 

Forecast 162853 had expected today's event in the South Sandwich Islands within about 50 km of today's epicenter was likely around May 1.

 

O: 02MAY2024 05:53:52  55.6S   27.1W mb=5.0  EMSC   SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

O:  2MAY2024 06:36:36  55.9S   27.0W MB=5.6  EMSC   SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

P:  1MAY2024 162853    56.0S   28.0W 4.0-5.6 AAAAA  So. Sandwich Islands       

 

Also near the Greenwich Meridian and near local solar midnight at the time of the M9.5 solar flare, an M 4.6 occurred in the Greenland Sea today. It was possibly promoted by SFE associated with that flare. This is the strongest earthquake within about 250 km of this ep9icenter since an M 4.7 on June 21, 2023.  Forecast 162805 had expected enhanced seismicity in this area was likely around May 1.

 

O:  2MAY2024 02:01:53  78.9N    3.4E MB=4.6  EMSC   GREENLAND SEA                

P:  1MAY2024 162805    72.0N    0.0E 3.0-4.8 ACAAA  Norway                      

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.9 in Papua New Guinea. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to VI in Kimbe, PNG. This is the strongest earthquake in New Britain since an M 6.5 on April 14, 2024 and may be an aftershock of that event. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.5 in Papua New Guinea. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to VI in Kimbe, New Guinea.

The last earthquake within about 250 km of this epicenter in New Guinea with

M>=6.5 occurred on May 14, 2019. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 7.5-7.7 in the New Britain  region of Papua New Guinea. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity VII

in Rabaul, New Britain and VI in Kokopo; V in Namatanai, New Ireland; IV in Arawa, Solomon Islands and II-III in Kavleng, New Ireland and within about 500 km of the epicenter. It was also reported felt with moderate to strong intensity in Port Vila, Lihir Island, Bougainville, Port Moresby with power blackouts in the Kokopo area. PTWC issued a tsunami warning but this was later withdrawn. Villagers near the epicenter on the west coast of New Ireland reported seeing the ocean recede but no damaging waves were recorded. Damage did occur in New Britain but immediate reports are unclear as to how great it was. This is the strongest earthquake in the world during the year 2019 to date. An M 7.5 hit the region of Ecuador on February 22, 2019, the largest previous during this year. This earthquake was simultaneous with the strongest geomagnetic storm since August 26, 2018 when AP reached 76." (May 14, 2019)

 

The last earthquake in New Britain with M>=6.5 within about 200 km of today's epicenter occurred on October 10, 2018 with M 7.0." (April 14, 2024)

 

Forecast 162603 had expected today's epicenter would be active within about

25 km around May 2, 2024.

 

O:  1MAY2024 23:45:29   5.8S  151.0E MW=5.9  EMSC   NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.   

P:  2MAY2024 162603     6.0S  151.0E 4.0-5.4 AAAAA  New Ireland                

 

The eruption of Mt. Ruang in North Sulawesi continued today. It erupted three times on April 30-May 1 with lava and Ash causing air traffic to be halted and evacuations of local residents of Tagulandang Island. Schools have been shuttered. Ash has reached as far as Malaysia.

 

An M 4.1 earthquake hit the region of Los Angeles California today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to V in Corona, California. EMSC reported moderate shaking with a loud earthquake noise was witnessed in  the Los Angeles area at Irvine, Trabuco Canyon, Orange, Lake Forest, Corona, Mission Viejo, Anaheim, Tustin, Yorba Linda, Santa Ana, and as far as the Simi Valley in Northridge, Sylmar, Encino among others. Aftershocks of M 2.5 were reported with intensity IV in Corona, and Orange California. A witness reported unusual shaking instead of normal "rolling" with the quake. This is the strongest earthquake in eastern Los Angeles within about 75 km of today's epicenter since an M 4.2 on January 5, 2024 and again on January 25, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.2-4.4 in the region of eastern Los Angeles, California. NEIC reported this earthquake of M 4.2 in Los Angeles, California was felt with intensity up to V in the area(s) of Los Angeles, California in Lytle Creek.  EMSC reported moderate to strong shaking in the region of Los Angeles was felt in Fontana, Phelan, Rancho Cucamonga, Pinon Hills, Muscoy, Rialto, Crestline, Upland, Bloomington, Hesperia, Rialto, San Bernardino, Colton, Mountain View Acres, Glen Avon, Lake Arrowhead, Ontario, Glen Avon, Montclair, Highland and as far as Hollywood, Torrance nearly 100 km from the epicenter. This event follows a similar M 4.2 in the Rancho Palos Verdes area of California. This was noted in this summary on January 1, 2024 as:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.1 in southern California south of Los Angeles. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III in Rancho Palos Verdes, California. EMSC reported moderate to strong shaking without damage in California at San Pedro, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills, Long Beach, Lomita, Seal Beach, West Carson, Signal Hill, Torrance, Rossmoor, Huntington Beach, Redondo Beach, Fountain Valley, Compton, Costa Mesa, Hawaiian Gardens, Westminster, Hermosa Beach among others. The only earthquakes with equal or larger magnitude than M 4.1  located within about 50 km of this epicenter in the past 35 years occurred on September 18, 2021 (M 4.3) and as an M 4.0 on May 15, 2013." (January 5, 2024)

 

Forecast 162714 had expected a moderate earthquake was likely in this area of Los Angeles around May 2, 2024.

 

O: 02MAY2024 00:52:58  33.8N  117.6W ML=2.5  EMSC   GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIF.

O: 02MAY2024 01:29:07  34.1N  117.2W ML=2.1  EMSC   GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIF.

O:  1MAY2024 20:49:00  33.8N  117.7W MW=4.0  EMSC   GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALI

O:  1MAY2024 20:49:00  33.8N  117.7W MW=4.1  ANSS   GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALI

P:  2MAY2024 162714    34.3N  117.7W 2.5-4.5 AAAAA  So. California             

 

An unusual earthquake of M 3.2 occurred today in the region of Northern Texas Texas. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to IV in Mansfield, Texas. An aftershock of M 3.1 followed by mainshock six minutes later. It was also felt in Mansfield, Texas with intensity up to IV. EMSC reported these were felt with moderate intensity in Midlothian and  Venus, Texas. There were no reported of damage or casualties with these earthquakes. The total eclipse of the sun was visible for 4 minutes 23 seconds in Mansfield, Texas on April 8, 2024 around 18:40 UT. It is likely tidal stresses associated with that eclipse helped promote these earthquakes in Texas today.

 

The last earthquake within about 100 km of these two events in northern Texas with M>=3.2 occurred as an M 3.2 on October 1, 2019. The area had been active (possibly promoted by oil extraction technology) for the previous 10 years with the largest event an M 4.0 on May 7, 2015.

 

Forecast 162720 had expected this activity was likely to the northeast around

May 2, 2024.

 

O:  1MAY2024 18:03:23  32.5N   97.2W ML=3.1  EMSC   NORTHERN TEXAS               

O: 01MAY2024 18:09:33  32.5N   97.2W ml=3.1  ANSS   SSW of Mansfield Texas

O: 01MAY2024 18:03:23  32.5N   97.2W ml=3.2  ANSS   S of Mansfield Texas

O:  1MAY2024 18:09:33  32.5N   97.2W ML=3.2  EMSC   NORTHERN TEXAS               

P:  2MAY2024 162720    34.0N   96.0W 2.0-3.9 ABAAA  Southern Plains            

 

MAJOR SOLAR FLARE WILL LIKELY BRING NEWLY ENHANCED SEISMICITY 

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR APRIL 30, 2024

 

A major M9.5 to X1.0 solar flare occurred late on April 30 and early on May 1, 2024. This flare caused widespread radio blackouts in the Pacific region.  The last solar flare of equal or greater energy was an X1.1 (#9360) on March 28, 2024 several days before the M 7.4 earthquake in Taiwan. A larger X5.0 (#40) occurred on December 31, 2023 followed by an M 7.6 earthquake in Western Honshu, Japan on January 1, 2024. Today's event of M9.5 began at 23:23 UT and continued into early May 1, 2024. The longitude which was at exactly local solar noon at this time was 170 West - and has seismic areas in the Fox and Andreanof Islands, Aleutians, Alaska and in the Tonga-Fiji-New Zealand arc in the south. The major radio blackout was concentrated in this region and enhanced seismicity is most likely in this longitude band in the next several days - especially since this area was tidally stressed with the full moon of April 23 as reported in previous issues of this summary:

 

 

"The full moon will arrive on April 23, 2024 at 23:49 UT.  Longitudes which are at local solar midnight at this time are located at about 5 East while those at local solar noon are near 175 West. In the east these include most of western Europe and Iceland while in the west areas of the western Aleutians, Alaska, Hawaii, Tonga/Fiji/Kermadec Islands, New Zealand to the Balleny Islands and portions of the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge are included. These are the most likely areas to see significant tidal triggering with this full moon. Other areas may also see tidal promotion in the next week especially at times of large solar flares and near local solar midnight and solar noon. The likelihood of a strong associated earthquake with this full moon are moderate to high." (April 20-26, 2024)

 

A moderate earthquake of M 5.1 occurred east of the Barbados today. NEIC reported it was felt lightly in Crane, Barbados. The last earthquake of M>=5.1 in Barbados occurred on November 28, 2023 also with M 5.1 but the last of larger magnitude was an M 5.5 on March 29, 2021 within about 10 km of today's epicenter. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"An earthquake of M 5.5 was felt in Barbados, Windward Islands today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III in Crane Saint Philip, Barbados.

This is the strongest earthquake within about 300 km of this epicenter in Barbados and the Windward Islands since an M 5.8 on February 3, 2017. The only event of M>=6 in the Barbados in the past 30 years were an M 6.5 on July 16, 2015 and an M 6.5 on February 18, 2014.

 

...

 

Today's event occurred near local solar midnight and, like the event in July, 2015 occurred with a full or new moon and was likely promoted by high tidal stresses associated with today's full moon." (March 29, 2021)

 

Today's earthquake occurred near local solar noon and had been forecast to occur within about 50 km of this epicenter in forecast 162631 around May 2, 2024. This epicenter is at 143 degrees from the M 7.4 in Taiwan of April 2, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 30APR2024 17:51:12  13.8N   58.5W MW=5.1  EMSC   BARBADOS REGION, WINDWARD ISL.

O: 30APR2024 17:51:10  13.8N   58.4W mw=5.1  ANSS   ENE of Crane Barbados

P:  2MAY2024 162631    14.0N   59.0W 3.0-5.1 AAAAA  Leeward Islands            

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 3.5 in the Fox Islands, Aleutians, Alaska. It was not reported felt in this remote area. It occurred near local solar noon and may have been affected by strong tidal effects which maximize near this hour. It occurred minutes before the M9.5 solar flare which is discussed above. More and larger events in this area of the Fox Islands are likely in the next several days as discussed in this summary issue. An earthquake of M 4.7 hit this area of the Fox Islands on April 10, 2024 - two days after the solar eclipse of April 8, 2024. It was discussed at the time in this summary as:

 

 

"The strongest earthquakes in the U.S. or Canada today were an M 4.7 in the eastern Andreanof Islands, Alaska and an M 4.8 in the Unimak Islands. The event in the western Andreanof Islands was reported felt with intensity II (by NEIC) in Atka, Alaska. The last earthquake of M>=4.7 in the area of today's Andreanof Island event occurred as an M 4.8 on February 12, 2024 and December 4, 2023. The last event of significantly larger magnitude in that area was an M 5.6 on October 12, 2023. At that time this summary noted:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.6 in the western Fox Islands, Aleutians, Alaska. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Atka, Alaska. The last earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter with equal of larger magnitude occurred on September 27, 2020 and October 26, 2019 with M 5.6 and 5.9.

 

It is likely that this event was promoted by strong tidal stresses associated with upcoming new moon and eclipse which passes over this epicenter early on  October 14. Further enhanced seismicity in the Aleutians is likely with the new moon and eclipse in the next several days. This could include a strong earthquake." (October 12, 2023)

 

Today's event in the Fox Islands occurred within minutes of local solar noon and was probably promoted by strong tidal stresses which maximize near this hour." (April 10, 2024)

 

 

O: 30APR2024 22:23:33  52.0N  171.6W ML=3.5  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

P:  3MAY2024 162773    52.2N  171.5W 3.5-4.9 BAAAA  Andreanoff Isls, Aleutians 

P: 27APR2024 162504    52.2N  171.5W 3.5-4.9 BAAAA  Andreanoff Isls, Aleutians 

 

A second eruption of Mount Ruang in Indonesia continued today. A violent eruption of this volcano occurred two weeks ago. Evacuations and no-go zones are in effect. BMG warned residents that a tsunami may occur as volcanic material enters the ocean near the volcano. This would most likely affect residents on Tagulandang Island.

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.6 in the South Sandwich Islands. This follows reactivation of this region in the past four days with events of M 4.9 and 5.0 on April 25 and 26, 2024. The M 5.6 is the strongest in the South Sandwich Islands since an M 5.7 on February 14, 2024 - more than two months ago. At the time of the recent events in the South Sandwich Islands this summary noted:

 

 

“On the opposite longitude near 0 West two moderate earthquakes of M 4.9 and

M 5.0 occurred in the South Sandwich Islands. They were not reported felt in this remote area. The last earthquake in the South Sandwich Islands of significantly larger magnitude was an M 5.7 on February 14, 2024.

At the time this summary noted:

 

"A moderately large earthquake also occurred today in the South Sandwich Islands with M 5.7. It was followed by an aftershock of M 5.2 twelve minutes later which was probably triggered by PcS reflections from the mainshock. These are seismic pulses which reflect off the core back to the original epicenter.

 

...

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.8 in the South Sandwich Islands. This event was not reported felt in this remote area. A major earthquake of M 7.5 hit about 200 km southeast of today's epicenter on August 12, 2021 but the last earthquake within this range of today's event with equal of larger magnitude was recorded on August 18 and December 7, 2021 with M 5.8-5.9. Today's event was probably promoted by geomagnetic effects which maximize near the geomagnetic equator and at high latitudes." (December 1, 2023, February 14, 2024, April 26, 2024)

 

Forecast 162853  had expected this event in the South Sandwich Islands within about 50-100 km in late April. This epicenter is located at 103 degrees from the M 7.1 in the Loyalty Islands of December 7, 2023 and the M 6.7 there of March 27, 2024 and like the M 5.1 in Barbados is near 144 degrees from the Taiwan earthquake of M 7.4 on April 2, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.

 

O: 30APR2024 14:30:40  55.7S   27.1W MW=5.6  EMSC   SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

P:  1MAY2024 162853    56.0S   28.0W 4.0-5.6 AAAAA  So. Sandwich Islands        

P: 28APR2024 162580    56.0S   26.0W 4.0-5.9 AAAAA  So. Sandwich Islands       

 

A more unusual earthquake of M 5.0 also occurred today to the west of the South Sandwich Islands in the South Shetland Islands. The last earthquake of equal or  larger magnitude in the South Shetland Islands was an M 5.1 on December 28, 2023 but the last of significantly larger magnitude occurred as an M 5.5 on April 10, 2021. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"A moderately strong earthquake of M 5.5 also shook the South Shetland Islands today. It was not reported felt. It is located near the line of maximum longitude in the western hemisphere with the new moon and was probably promoted by strong tidal stresses associated with that alignment. An M 7.1 hit this area on January 23, 2021 and the strongest aftershock to date has been an M 5.5 on January 24, 2021." (April 10, 2021)

 

Forecast 162855 had expected enhanced seismicity in this region was likely in early May, 2024. This earthquake is located at 146 degrees from the M 7.1 in Xinjiang, China of January 22, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O:  1MAY2024 07:12:54  62.2S   56.3W MB=5.0  EMSC   SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS       

P:  7MAY2024 162855    60.0S   44.0W 3.0-5.4 CBCAA  So. So. America             

 

Another moderately large earthquake today occurred as an M 5.4-5.5 in Fiji near the IDL. It occurred near local solar midnight and it was likely promoted by strong tidal effects which maximize near this hour (see tidal forecast above). Forecast 162561 had expected this earthquake within about 100 km was likely around April 30.

 

O: 30APR2024 11:24:58  25.0S  179.8E MB=5.5  EMSC   SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS        

O: 30APR2024 11:24:57  25.0S  179.9E mw=5.4  ANSS   the Fiji Islands

P: 30APR2024 162561    24.0S  179.0E 4.0-5.4 AAAAA  Tonga/Fiji                 

 

 

MOUNT RUANG ERUPTS IN SULAWESI, INDONESIA; EVACUATIONS PROCEEDING

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR APRIL 29, 2024

 

 

A second eruption of Mount Ruang in Indonesia occurred today. A violent eruption

of this volcano occurred two weeks ago. Evacuations and no-go zones are in effect. BMG warned that a tsunami may occur as volcanic material enters the ocean near the volcano. This would most likely affect residents on Tagulandang Island.

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 3.6 off the coast of Oregon. NEIC reported this earthquake of M 3.6 off the coast of Oregon  was felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of  Oregon in Bandon. The last earthquake of larger magnitude off the coast of Oregon occurred a month ago on March 27, 2024 with M 5.7. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.7 off the coast of Oregon. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to III along the coast of Oregon, especially in the Port Orford area. EMSC reported light shaking in Springfield, Oregon." (March 27, 2024)

 

Forecast 162484 had expected this event within about 100 km was likely around April 25.

 

O: 29APR2024 23:38:10  43.4N  127.8W MB=3.6  EMSC   OFF COAST OF OREGON          

P: 25APR2024 162484    43.1N  126.5W 3.0-4.8 BAAAA  Off Coast of Oregon        

 

 

MODERATE QUAKE SHAKES VIRGIN ISLANDS

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR APRIL 28, 2024

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S., Canada or Possessions today was an M 4.9 in the Virgin Islands (U.S). NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Charlotte Amalie, U.S. Virgin Islands. EMSC reported it was felt with moderate Intensity in Virgin Gorda, British Virgin Island, Sint Maarten, Dutch Virgin Islands, and in Puerto Rico. The last earthquake in the U.S. Virgin Islands of M>=4.9 occurred on  December 9, 2023 with M 5.7 and before that as an M 5.5 on May 8, 2022. At the time of the December, 2023 this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.7 in the U.S. Virgin Islands. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to V in Cruz Bay, V.I. It occurred near local solar noon and may have been promoted by tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. EMSC reported moderate shaking in the British Virgin Islands in West End; in Puerto Rico at Fajardo, Pitahaya, Trujillo Alto, San Juan, Guaynabo, Jagueyes, Levittown, Toa Alta, Barahona, Las Ochenta.

The last earthquake in the Virgin Islands within about 200 km of today's epicenter with M>=5.7 occurred on October 11, 2008 with M 6.1 and prior to that as an M 5.9-6.0 on October 17, 2001. At the time of the October, 2008 event this summary noted:

 

"The earthquake in the Virgin Islands of M 6.1 today was reported by NEIC to have been felt with maximum intensity V in Puerto Rico .... It was the most widely reported earthquake (by NEIC) in the region of Puerto Rico in at least

the last 10 years and the second most widely felt in the area in that time period after an M 7.3 on November 29, 2007 that occurred south of this in Dominica." (October 11, 2008, December 9, 2023)

 

 

EMSC reported the earthquake of M 4.0 in the Anguilla, Leeward Islands was felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of  the Windward Islands in French and Dutch, Saint Martin (Sint Maarten) at Marigot.

 

Forecasts 162360 and 162377 had expected today's activity in the Virgin Islands was likely around April 29, 2024. This epicenter is at the third node (120 degrees) from the M 7.5 in Western Honshu, Japan of January 1, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

 

O: 28APR2024 13:06:42  19.0N   64.8W MD=3.3  EMSC   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

O: 28APR2024 16:58:13  19.0N   64.8W MD=3.7  EMSC   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

O: 28APR2024 19:18:59  19.0N   64.7W MD=3.6  EMSC   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

O: 28APR2024 19:42:21  19.0N   64.8W MD=3.5  EMSC   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

O: 28APR2024 13:19:18  19.1N   64.8W MD=3.4  EMSC   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

O: 28APR2024 14:56:58  19.1N   64.8W MD=3.4  EMSC   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

O: 28APR2024 16:56:14  19.1N   64.8W MD=3.5  EMSC   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

O: 28APR2024 13:54:43  19.2N   64.7W MD=3.3  EMSC   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

O: 28APR2024 12:23:27  19.2N   64.8W mb=4.7  EMSC   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

O: 28APR2024 12:23:31  19.1N   64.9W ml=4.9  ANSS   Amalie U.S. Virgin Islands

O: 28APR2024 13:36:10  18.1N   64.6W MD=3.3  EMSC   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION         

O: 28APR2024 09:58:10  18.5N   63.4W mb=4.0  ANSS   Sandy Ground Village Anguilla

P: 29APR2024 162360    18.0N   64.0W 3.0-5.6 AAAAA  Leeward Islands            

P: 29APR2024 162377    20.0N   64.0W 3.0-4.4 ABAAA  Bahamas/No. Caribbean      

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.2 in the region of Tonga.

This is not an unusual earthquake for this area. It continues regional activation of the past several days related to the new moon of April 23 which was complete at these longitudes and probably helped promote this enhanced seismicity.

 

Forecast 162558 had expected this event within about 150 km was likely around

April 24, 2024.

 

O: 28APR2024 12:55:52  21.9S  176.6W mw=5.2  ANSS   WSW of Houma Tonga

O: 28APR2024 12:55:52  21.9S  176.5W MW=5.2  EMSC   FIJI REGION                  

P: 24APR2024 162558    22.0S  175.0W 4.0-5.6 BABAA  Tonga Islands              

 

The most unusual earthquake of the day was an M 4.6 in the Azores Islands of Portugal. This is the strongest aftershock to date of an M 5.2 on April 23, 2024. An earthquake of M 5.2 also hit this region on September 29, 2023. At that time this summary noted:

 

 

"M 5.2 in the Azores follows a series in the Azores on September 23-25, 2023.

At the time this summary noted:

 

A swarm of earthquakes has been occurring in the Azores Islands region of Portugal over the past several days. The largest of these events occurred today with M 4.6 and M 4.1. This activity may be related to the passage of Hurricane Nigel through the region over the past several days" (September 29, 2023)

 

Forecast 162478 had expected this event within about 150 km was likely around

April 25.

 

O: 28APR2024 07:38:31  38.5N   30.2W MB=4.6  EMSC   AZORES ISLANDS, PORTUGAL     

P: 25APR2024 162478    40.0N   30.0W 4.0-5.6 BBAAA  No. Mid-Atlantic Ridge     

 

The strong swarm of earthquakes in northern Gulf of California continued today. The largest of these today was an M 4.3. This had been reported in previous issues of this summary as in the last issue as:

 

 

"A swarm of earthquakes with magnitude up to moderate low M 4s occurred in the northern  Gulf of California. This is not part of the sequences to the south and north which have been activated in the past several days and weeks but may be part of the general seismic activation of this region following the solar eclipse of April 8, 2024.

 

This series was noted in the previous issue of this summary as:

 

"An unusual earthquake series is occurring in the northern Gulf of California.

NEIC reported the largest earthquake of M 4.4 in the Gulf of California, Mexico was felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of  the Gulf of California, Mexico in San Luis. This is south of the off-and-on series near 30-31N 114-115W and north of the recent swarm near 26N 110W  both of which have been related to the solar eclipse of April 8 in this summary. Ditto for today's new swarm. Three of these events of M 4.0, 4.0 and 3.7 occurred within minutes of local solar noon and were probably promoted by high tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. Earthquakes in this area of the northern Gulf of California - especially swarms of this type - are often associated with strong geomagnetic storms as was the case today." (April 28, 2024)

 

 

Forecast 162432 had expected today's activity around April 24 about 150 km to the northwest of these epicenters. This epicenter is located at 104-105 degrees from the M 7.4 in Taiwan of April 2, 2024 and the M 6.9 in New Guinea of March 23, 2024 and at the fourth node (90 degrees) from the M 6.9 in the Mariana Islands of April 5, 2024 and the M 7.1 in the Loyalty Islands of December 7, 2023 and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.

 

O: 28APR2024 07:49:35  29.0N  113.1W ML=4.2  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 28APR2024 08:51:28  29.0N  113.1W ML=4.1  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 28APR2024 10:44:03  29.0N  113.2W ML=4.2  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 28APR2024 17:27:48  29.0N  113.2W ML=4.3  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 28APR2024 07:56:05  29.1N  113.2W ML=4.1  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 28APR2024 07:44:13  29.2N  113.2W ML=4.1  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 28APR2024 08:20:06  29.2N  113.2W ML=4.0  EMSC   IS. ANGEL DE LA GUARDA, BC, MEX.

O: 28APR2024 08:11:27  28.9N  113.2W ML=3.8  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA           

P: 24APR2024 162432    30.5N  114.6W 2.0-4.3 BBBAA  SW U.S.A                   

 

 

STRONG DEEP FOCUS QUAKE IN BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR APRIL 27, 2024

 

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was a deep focus M 6.5 in the Bonin Islands, Japan. NEIC reported light shaking at intensity II at the surface in the Bonin Islands. This is the largest earthquake reported in the Bonin Islands within about 200 km of today's epicenter since an M 6.6 on April 18, 2020.

At the time of that event this summary noted:

 

 

"A strong M 6.6 earthquake shook the Bonin Islands of Japan today at a deep focus (490 km). It was reported felt in southern Honshu more than 1000 km from the epicenter with intensity II-III in Japan at Chiba, Kanagawa, Tokyo, and Saitama. JMA reported it was felt in Tokyo and Ogasawara, Japan with intensity IV. No tsunami was expected or observed from this deep focus event. This is the strongest earthquake in the Bonin Islands since an M 7.8 on May 30, 2015  at a deep focus.

 

The occurrence of this strong earthquake today at 140 East longitude on the Pacific Rim is consistent with promotion by tidal stresses associated with the full moon." (April 18, 2020)

 

A regional foreshock in the Bonin Islands of M 5.4 also occurred on April 24, 2024. It was described in a previous issue of this summary as:

 

"A moderately strong earthquake of M 5.4 also occurred today in the Bonin Island south of Honshu, Japan. It may have been lightly felt in the epicentral area. The last event of M>=5.4 in the Bonin Islands within about 200 km of this epicenter occurred as an M 5.9 on June 21, 2022. At the time this  summary noted:

 

"An earthquake of M 5.9 also occurred in the Bonin Islands of southern Japan today. It was not reported felt in this remote area. This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 7.4 on December 21, 2010 and aftershocks of M 6.2 and 6.4 on December 22, 2010. More recent earthquakes in the area have occurred with M>=5.9 at deep focus about 250 km to the west of today's event with M 6.0 on May 26, 2012; M 7.8 on May 30, 2015 and M 6.6 on May 18, 2020." (June 21, 2022, April 25, 2024))

 

Forecast 162379 and expected today's activity in the Bonin Islands within about

100 km was likely around April 25-26, 2024. This epicenter is at 144 degrees from the M 6.7 in Brazil of January 20, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 27APR2024 08:35:34  27.9N  139.6E Mw=6.5  EMSC   BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

O: 27APR2024 08:35:34  27.8N  139.6E mw=6.5  ANSS   Bonin Islands Japan region"

O: 27APR2024 10:07:48  27.8N  139.5E MB=4.0  EMSC   BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION  

P: 25APR2024 162379    29.0N  139.0E 4.0-5.7 ABAAA  Bonin Islands              

P: 26APR2024 162379    27.0N  141.0E 4.0-5.4 AABAA  Bonin Islands              

 

The strongest earthquake felt  in the world today was an M 6.1 south of Java in the region of Indonesia. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to VIII in Banjar, Indonesia. A foreshock of M 4.7 occurred earlier in the day and was reported felt with intensity up to III in Labuan, Indonesia.  BMG gave this event M 6.5 and reported intensity IV in Sukabumi at Lengkong, Waluran, Surade, Cibitung, Ciracap, Kebonpedes, Cireunghas, Pabuaran, Purabaya, Sagaranten, Curugklenbar, Cidolog, Cidadap, Cimanggu and in Kab Cianjur, Bandung, Garut, Tasikmalaya, Ciamis, Cirebon, Subang, Purwakarta, Bekasi, Bandung, Pangandaram, Sukabumi, BTasikmalaa, Nganjuk Pandeglang, Serang and Buleleng and III in Kab Aceh Besar, Lampung, Pesawarn among others. EMSC reported strong shaking in Indonesia at Pameungpeuk, Bungbuland, Rancabali, Ibun, Patapang, Majalaya, Margahayu, Dayeuhkolot, Bojongsoang, Bandung Kidul among others. The last earthquake of M>=6.1 within about 200 km of today's epicenter south of Sumatra occurred on January 14, 2022 with M 6.6 and before that as an M 6.9 on August 2, 2019. At the time of the January 14, 2022 event this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.6 in the Sunda Strait near Sumatra, Indonesia. NEIC reported it did some damage with intensity VIII in Labuhan, Banten; V in Randegeland, Serang, IV in Serang, and II-III in Rangkasbitung, Cilegon, Palabuhanratu, Java, Indonesia. BMG reported this earthquake with M 6.7 was felt with intensity VI in Cikeusik, Panimbang, Labuan, Sumur; III-IV in Tangerang Selatan, Lembang, Kota Bogor, Pelabuhanratu, Kalianda, Bandar Lampung; III in Anyer, Jakarta II-III in Kota Tangerang, Ciracas, Bekasi, Kota Bandung, Kab Bogor and Kotabumi. With a minor geomagnetic storm due on January 15, continued enhanced activity in Indonesia appears likely for the next several days. The last earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter with M>=6.6 occurred on August 2, 2019 with M 6.9 about 100 km southwest of today's epicenter and prior to that as an M 6.8 within about

50 km on October 24, 2000." (January 14, 2022)

 

Today's earthquake in Java of M 6.1 appears to have been triggered by SFE associated with solar flare 6240. This flare began about 7 minutes before the event in Java and maximized with that earthquake. Both occurred within minutes of local solar midnight, a time of maximum flare effects on the earth.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

6240       1622   1628      1633   C4.9      (April 27, 2024)   3.2E-03  

 

Forecast 162343 had expected today's event within about 100 km was likely around April 24. This epicenter is located near the seventh node (52 degrees) from the M 7.5 in western Honshu of January 1, 2024 and from the M 7.2 in Xinjiang, China of January 22, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.

 

O: 27APR2024 16:29:51   8.1S  107.3E mw=6.1  ANSS   S of Banjar Indonesia

O: 27APR2024 16:29:51   8.1S  107.3E MW=6.1  EMSC   JAVA, INDONESIA              

P: 24APR2024 162343     9.0S  107.0E 4.0-5.4 BAAAA  So. of Java                

 

An unusual earthquake of M 4.5 also occurred in the Korea Bay, South Korea today. This may have been felt in South Korea. The M 6.5 in the Bonin Islands to the southeast of this may have helped promoted this event. The last earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter with M>=4.5 was an M 4.7 about 200 km northwest of today's event on August 23, 2023 but the last nearer this epicenter was an M 4.8 on December 30, 1993. At the time of the M 4.7 in Korea on August 23, 2023 this summary noted:

 

"An unusual earthquake of M 4.7 also shook areas of northeastern China today. NEIC reported intensity IV in Pulandian, Lianonig and II-III in Jinzhouo, Dalian and Zhuanghe, Liaoning, China. This earthquake appears to have been promoted by SFE from the second strongest solar flare of the day

...

 

This earthquake is the strongest in northeastern China within about 300 km of this epicenter since an M 5.1 about 200 km northeast of this epicenter on  January 11, 2000 and an M 5.3 on November 29, 1999. The only other event in this area with M>=4.7 in the past 35 years was an M 5.0 about 300 km to the west of today's epicenter on October 5, 1995." (August 24, 2023)

 

Forecast 162472 had expected enhanced seismicity in this region was likely  in late April, 2024.

 

O: 28APR2024 03:43:50  38.1N  122.9E MB=4.5  EMSC   KOREA BAY                    

P: 23APR2024 162472    41.0N  129.0E 3.5-5.4 BCCAA  NE China                   

 

A swarm of earthquakes with magnitude up to moderate low M 4’s occurred in the northern Gulf of California. This is not part of the sequences to the south and north which have been activated in the past several days and weeks but may be part of the general seismic activation of this region following the solar eclipse of April 8, 2024.

 

This series was noted in the previous issue of this summary as:

 

"An unusual earthquake series is occurring in the northern Gulf of California.

NEIC reported the largest earthquake of M 4.4 in the Gulf of California, Mexico was felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of  the Gulf of California, Mexico in San Luis.  This is south of the off-and-on series near 30-31N 114-115W and north of the recent swarm near 26N 110W  both of which have been related to the solar eclipse of April 8 in this summary. Ditto for today's new swarm. Three of these events of M 4.0, 4.0 and 3.7 occurred within minutes of local solar noon and were probably promoted by high tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. Earthquakes in this area of the northern Gulf of California - especially swarms of this type - are often associated with strong geomagnetic storms as was the case today.

 

The M 4.4 in this swarm is the strongest event within about 100 km since an M 7.0 on April 12, 2012 about 50 km of today's swarm. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The earthquake of M 6.9-7.1 in the Gulf of California is the strongest to occur in this region of the Gulf in at least 22 years. A slightly smaller event hit the region on August 3, 2009 with M 6.8-6.9." (April 12, 2012, April 27, 2024)

 

Forecast 162432 had expected today's activity around April 24 about 150 km  to the northwest of these epicenters. This epicenter is located at 104-105 degrees from the M 7.4 in Taiwan of April 2, 2024 and the M 6.9 in New Guinea of March 23, 2024 and at the fourth node (90 degrees) from the M 6.9 in the Mariana Islands of April 5, 2024 and the M 7.1 in the Loyalty Islands of December 7, 2023 and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.

 

 

O: 27APR2024 14:57:18  29.0N  113.2W ML=4.2  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 27APR2024 23:55:33  29.0N  113.1W ML=4.1  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 27APR2024 09:21:11  29.2N  113.3W ML=4.0  EMSC   IS. ANGEL DE LA GUARDA, BC, MEX.

O: 27APR2024 09:31:14  29.2N  113.3W ML=4.0  EMSC   IS. ANGEL DE LA GUARDA, BC, MEX.

O: 27APR2024 21:57:01  29.2N  113.3W ML=3.9  EMSC   IS. ANGEL DE LA GUARDA, BC, MEX.

O: 27APR2024 20:17:43  29.3N  113.4W ML=3.6  EMSC   IS. ANGEL DE LA GUARDA, BC, ME

P: 24APR2024 162432    30.5N  114.6W 2.0-4.3 BBAAA  SW U.S.A                   

 

Two moderate earthquakes also occurred in Eritria, East Africa today with  M 4.5-5.0. They occurred about an hour after two M-class solar flares with one near local solar midnight when geomagnetic effects can maximize. Earthquakes in this area often occur with strong solar flares so this correlation is not unexpected as strong flares return to the sun.

 

Forecast 162358 had expected enhanced seismicity in Eritrea and Ethiopia was likely around April 25.

 

O: 27APR2024 20:44:40  15.8N   39.6E mb=4.7  EMSC   ERITREA

O: 28APR2024 00:37:18  15.8N   39.7E MB=5.0  EMSC   ERITREA                      

P: 25APR2024 162358    12.0N   41.0E 3.5-4.9 BCBAA  Ethiopia                   

 

An unusually large aftershock occurred with M 2.9 in New Jersey today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Gladstone, New Jersey. EMSC reported moderate shaking in New Jersey and New York at Whitehouse Station, High Bridge, Long Valley, Mendham, Washington County, Askbury, Bloomsbury, Denville, Andover, Byram Township, Morris Plains, Sparta, Keyport,  and in Williamsburg, Brooklyn, New York.   The mainshock was accompanied by a series of minor shocks in the area. Forecast 162474 had expected this event within about 50 km was likely around April 27, 2024.

 

O: 27APR2024 13:49:38  40.7N   74.7W ML=2.9  EMSC   NEW JERSEY                   

P: 27APR2024 162474    41.0N   74.0W 2.0-4.3 AAAAA  New York State             

 

A pair of unusual earthquakes of M 3.4 and 3.5 today hit northern Alaska. They were not reported felt in this remote area. The last earthquake with M>=3.4  within about 200 km of this epicenter occurred exactly one year ago on April 27, 2023 with M 3.4. The last earthquake of M>3.5 in the area occurred as an M 5.0 on March 18, 2020. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The strongest earthquake in Alaska today was an M 4.8-5.0 in Northern Alaska.  This event is part of an aftershock sequence following the mainshocks of M 5.2 on March 6 and October 18, 2019." (March 18, 2020)

 

O: 28APR2024 03:48:43  67.9N  160.9W ML=3.5  EMSC   NORTHERN ALASKA

O: 27APR2024 19:53:14  67.8N  161.0W ML=3.4  EMSC   NORTHERN ALASKA              

O: 27APR2024 19:53:14  67.8N  161.0W ML=3.4  ANSS   KM ESE OF RED                

 

STRONG QUAKE IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN ALONG ECLIPSE ANTIPODE PATH

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR APRIL 26, 2024

 

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.0 in the South Indian Mid-ocean Ridge. Several moderate aftershocks followed the mainshock. The last earthquake of equal or greater magnitude within about 300 km of this epicenter in the Central mid-Indian Ridge occurred as an M 6.1 on April 12, 2020. The only early of significantly larger magnitude in this area in the past 35 years was an M 6.4 on October 4, 2013. At the time this summary noted:

 

"A strong earthquake of M 6.4 hit near the triple junction in the mid-Indian Rise today. This is a remote area and there were no reported effects on human populations which are few in this oceanic region. This is the strongest earthquake to hit within 300 km of this epicenter in the past 25 years, so this is a significant regional event. The only earthquakes of M>=6 in the region occurred in May, 2006 (M 6-6.1); May 2002 (M 6.1-6.2) and August 1996 (M 6.0). A global seismic watch was in effect when the quake occurred as it was near local solar midnight at the time of occurrence, a time when tidal forces from the new moon were maximized. Seismicity in this area is generally related to magma intrusion along the ridge and magma is affected by tidal forces. Forecast 75729 had expected a moderate to large earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter was possible around October 6.

 

...

 

The antipode of the earthquake in the Indian Ocean is in the Great Plains region of the U.S. The most seismic areas in this region lie in Oklahoma and southern  Colorado. As the new moon reached its maximum tidal alignment, an M 2.7 hit in Oklahoma near the antipode of the Indian Ocean event. Earthquakes in Oklahoma are probably related to oil and gas extraction and induced seismicity such as this can also be triggered during tidal alignments such as the full and new moon." (October 4, 2013)

 

Today's epicenter is at the antipode of the path of the total solar eclipse of April 8, 2024 across North America near Missouri, Kansas and Oklahoma and may have been promoted by tidal energy associated with that eclipse and the full moon of April 23. A series of minor earthquakes have occurred along the eclipse Path in North America in the past two weeks. At least two other moderate earthquakes have also occurred at antipodal positions to the eclipse in the past 10 days - in the South Indian Ridge and south of Australia. Today's M 6.0 in the Indian Ocean is the strongest earthquake to date associated with the April 8 eclipse.

 

Forecast 162569 had expected today's earthquake was likely within about 50 km of this epicenter around April 28, 2024. This epicenter is located at the fifth node (72 degrees) from the M 7.4 in Taiwan of April 2, 2024 and  from the M 6.9 in New Britain of April 14, 2024 and was probably promoted by energy from those sources.

 

O: 26APR2024 23:23:13  37.2S   78.0E mb=5.0  EMSC   MID-INDIAN RIDGE

O: 27APR2024 01:43:45  37.3S   78.1E mb=5.3  EMSC   MID-INDIAN RIDGE

O: 27APR2024 01:35:09  37.5S   78.0E mb=4.8  EMSC   MID-INDIAN RIDGE

O: 26APR2024 22:23:36  37.1S   78.2E mw=6.0  ANSS   Mid-Indian Ridge"

O: 26APR2024 22:23:36  37.1S   78.2E MW=6.0  EMSC   MID-INDIAN RIDGE             

P: 28APR2024 162569    37.0S   79.0E 4.0-5.5 AAAAA  So. Indian Ocean           

 

An unusual earthquake also occurred with M 2.7 in Louisiana. This event is about 50 km north of an M 2.6 which hit on April 13 and was associated with the solar eclipse of April 8 in this summary as:

 

 

"Several earthquakes occurred today along the path of total eclipse of the sun. The most unusual of these was an M 2.6 in Louisiana near the border with Texas. NEIC reported it was felt with light intensity II in Edgefield, Louisiana. An M 3.5 hit near this epicenter on January 27, 2024 and this may be an aftershock of that event. At the time this summary noted:

 

"An unusual earthquake of M 3.5 occurred today in Louisiana. NEIC reported it was widely felt with intensity up to V in Louisiana at Hall Summit. An M 2.5 foreshock was felt in the same area today. Light earthquakes occurred in this area of Louisiana in April an December, 2021 and in November, 2022 but none of these were larger than M 3.0. The last event in Louisiana within about 100 km of today's epicenter occurred more that 35 years ago. An M 4.3 about 150 km to the southwest of this epicenter occurred on September 2, 2013." (January 27, 2024)

 

The total eclipse was observed near this epicenter at 18:47 UT on April 8." (April 13, 2024) 

 

Forecast 162447 had expected today's event in Louisiana within about 50  km was likely around April 22.

 

O: 26APR2024 19:17:35  32.5N   93.4W ML=2.7  EMSC   LOUISIANA                    

O: 26APR2024 19:17:35  32.5N   93.4W mb=2.7  ANSS   SSE of Doyline Louisiana

P: 22APR2024 162447    33.0N   93.0W 2.0-4.0 BAAAA  Southeast U.S.             

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.9 in the Rat Islands, Aleutians, Alaska. It was reported felt in this remote area near Adak, Alaska with intensity up to III. This area had been expected to see tidally enhanced seismicity with the full moon of April 23 near the IDL as reported in this and previous issues of this summary:

 

"The full moon arrived on April 23, 2024 at 23:49 UT.  Longitudes which are at local solar midnight at this time are located at about 5 East while those at local solar noon are near 175 West. In the east these include most of western Europe and Iceland while in the west areas of the western Aleutians, Alaska, Hawaii, Tonga/Fiji/Kermadec Islands, New Zealand to the Balleny Islands and portions of the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge are included. These are the most likely areas to see significant tidal triggering with this full moon. Other areas may also see tidal promotion in the next week especially at times of large solar flares and near local solar midnight and solar noon. The likelihood of a strong associated earthquake with this full moon are moderate to high." (April 17-26, 2024)

 

A slightly smaller event of M 4.6 occurred near this epicenter with M 4.6 and 4.4 on April 24, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

"Likewise the strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.6 in the western Andreanof Islands at 180 W longitude. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III in Adak, Alaska. This is the strongest earthquake in the western Andreanof Islands or eastern Rat Islands since an M 5.0 on February 29, 2024 in the Andreanof Islands and an 5.8 in the Rat Islands on March 30, 2024. At the time of this event in the Rat Islands, this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.8 in the Rat Islands, Aleutians, Alaska. It was not reported felt in this remote area. This earthquake was not reported felt in this epicentral area. The last earthquake of equal or larger magnitude in the Rat Islands was an M 6.3 on December 14, 2022." (March 30, 2024, April 24, 2024)

 

Forecast 162516 had expected this event in the Rat Islands was likely within about 100 km around April 26, 2024. This epicenter is at the seventh node (51.4 degrees) from the M 7.4 in Taiwan of April 2, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

 

O: 27APR2024 04:42:58  51.3N  179.8E MB=4.9  EMSC   RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

P: 26APR2024 162516    51.0N  179.0E 4.0-5.6 AAAAA  Rat Islands                 

 

The region of Taiwan also remained active today. NEIC reported an M 5.7 followed by an aftershock of 5.4 and M 5.7 were felt with intensity up to V in the area north of Hualien City, Taiwan. EMSC reported these events were felt strongly in the Taiwanese districts of Xindian, Wenshan, Da'an, Datong, Neihu, Beitou, Shilin, Nantun, and Tamsui and the townships of Zhudong and in New Taipei and Taipei cities. These are aftershocks of the M 7.4 in Taiwan of April 2, 2024.

 

Forecast 162393 had expected this activity within about 50 km was likely around April 27.

 

O: 26APR2024 19:13:26  24.0N  121.7E mb=4.8  EMSC   TAIWAN

O: 26APR2024 18:21:21  24.2N  121.7E ML=5.7  EMSC   TAIWAN

O: 26APR2024 18:45:04  24.2N  121.7E ML=4.5  EMSC   TAIWAN

O: 26APR2024 18:49:28  24.2N  121.7E ML=5.4  EMSC   TAIWAN

O: 27APR2024 01:06:27  24.2N  121.7E ML=4.6  EMSC   TAIWAN

O: 26APR2024 20:08:17  24.3N  122.2E mb=4.7  EMSC   TAIWAN REGION

O: 26APR2024 12:28:14  23.8N  121.6E ML=4.1  EMSC   TAIWAN                       

P: 27APR2024 162393    24.0N  122.0E 4.0-5.4 AAAAA  Taiwan                     

 

A moderate earthquake of M 5.0 also occurred today south of Bali, Indonesia.

NEIC reported this earthquake of M 5.0 South of Bali  was felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of  Java, Indonesia at Nusa Dua. EMSC reported it was felt with moderate shaking in Bali, Indonesia at Kuta, Mengwi. BMG did not immediately report intensities associated with this earthquake.

 

Forecast 162542 had expected today's event was likely about 50 km south of this epicenter towards the end of April.

 

O: 26APR2024 13:43:20  10.5S  115.1E MB=5.0  EMSC   SOUTH OF BALI, INDONESIA     

P: 29APR2024 162542    11.0S  115.0E 4.0-5.4 BAAAA  So. of Indonesia           

 

An unusual earthquake series is occurring in the northern Gulf of California.

NEIC reported the largest earthquake of M 4.4 in the Gulf of California, Mexico was felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of  the Gulf of California, Mexico in San Luis. This is south of the off-and-on series near 30-31N 114-115W and north of the recent swarm near 26N 110W  both of which have been related to the solar eclipse of April 8 in this summary. Ditto for today's new swarm. Three of these events of M 4.0, 4.0 and 3.7 occurred within minutes of local solar noon and were probably promoted by high tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. Earthquakes in this area of the northern Gulf of California - especially swarms of this type - are often associated with strong geomagnetic storms as was the case today.

 

The M 4.4 in this swarm is the strongest event within about 100 km since an M 7.0 on April 12, 2012 about 50 km of today's swarm. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The earthquake of M 6.9-7.1 in the Gulf of California is the strongest to occur in this region of the Gulf in at least 22 years. A slightly smaller event hit the region on August 3, 2009 with M 6.8-6.9." (April 12, 2012)

 

Forecast 162432 had expected today's activity around April 24 about 150 km to the northwest of these epicenters. This epicenter is located at 104-105 degrees from the M 7.4 in Taiwan of April 2, 2024 and the M 6.9 in New Guinea of March 23, 2024 and at the fourth node (90 degrees) from the M 6.9 in the Marianna Islands of April 5, 2024 and the M 7.1 in the Loyalty Islands of December 7, 2023 and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.

 

O: 26APR2024 11:17:22  28.8N  113.1W mb=4.3  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 26APR2024 10:47:13  28.9N  113.2W ML=4.1  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 26APR2024 10:33:30  29.0N  113.3W ML=3.9  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 26APR2024 10:45:11  29.0N  113.1W ML=3.5  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 26APR2024 14:22:40  29.0N  113.1W ML=4.4  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 26APR2024 10:01:50  29.1N  113.3W ML=3.7  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 26APR2024 10:20:45  29.1N  113.2W ML=4.0  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 26APR2024 18:38:44  29.1N  113.3W ML=3.9  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 26APR2024 21:24:04  29.1N  113.2W ML=3.9  EMSC   IS. ANGEL DE LA GUARDA, BC, MEX.

O: 26APR2024 19:50:21  29.2N  113.2W ML=4.0  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 26APR2024 20:12:07  29.2N  113.2W ML=4.0  EMSC   IS. ANGEL DE LA GUARDA, BC, MEX.

O: 27APR2024 06:37:21  29.2N  113.2W ML=4.0  EMSC   IS. ANGEL DE LA GUARDA, BC, MEX.

O: 26APR2024 20:03:13  29.3N  113.7W ML=3.7  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA           

P: 24APR2024 162432    30.5N  114.6W 2.0-4.3 ABAAA  SW U.S.A                   

 

 

 

QUIET DAY; ENHANCED SEISMICITY CONTINUES NEAR IDL; GREENWICH MERIDIAN

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR APRIL 25, 2024

 

It was a very quiet day in global seismicity today. No events of M>5 were

recorded. Activation near 180 West longitude and at 0 West longitude continued with moderate quakes in Tonga, Kermadec Islands and New Zealand and the Atlantic.

 

An M 4.8 was recorded in Tonga. This is not an unusual earthquake. Forecast 162545 had expected this event within about 100 km was likely around April 24.

 

O: 25APR2024 18:05:22  16.1S  175.0W MB=4.8  EMSC   TONGA                        

P: 24APR2024 162545    16.0S  176.0W 4.0-5.5 AAAAA  Tonga Islands              

 

On the opposite longitude near 0 West two moderate earthquakes of M 4.9 and M 5.0 occurred in the South Sandwich Islands. They were not reported felt in this remote area. The last earthquake in the South Sandwich Islands of significantly larger magnitude was an M 5.7 on February 14, 2024.  At the time this summary noted:

 

"A moderately large earthquake also occurred today in the South Sandwich Islands with M 5.7. It was followed by an aftershock of M 5.2 twelve minutes later which was probably triggered by PcS reflections from the mainshock. These are seismic pulses which reflect off the core back to the original epicenter.

 

...

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.8 in the South Sandwich Islands. This event was not reported felt in this remote area. A major earthquake of M 7.5 hit about 200 km southeast of today's epicenter on August 12, 2021 but the last  earthquake within this range of today's event with equal of larger magnitude was recorded on August 18 and December 7, 2021 with M 5.8-5.9. Today's event was probably promoted by geomagnetic effects which maximize near the geomagnetic equator and at high latitudes." (December 1, 2023, February 14, 2024)

 

Forecasts 162581 and 162580 had expected these events in the South Sandwich Islands within about 50-100 km in late April.

 

O: 26APR2024 02:56:32  55.4S   29.1W MB=5.0  EMSC   SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

P: 24APR2024 162580    55.0S   29.0W 4.0-5.8 AAAAA  So. Sandwich Islands       

 

O: 25APR2024 11:50:25  58.6S   25.2W MB=4.9  EMSC   SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

P: 28APR2024 162581    59.0S   26.0W 4.0-5.7 BAAAA  So. Sandwich Islands       

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 3.8-3.9 in western Texas. This event occurred near local solar noon and may have been promoted by energy from strong tides which maximize near this hour. This is the strongest

earthquake within about 100 km of this epicenter since an M 3.9 on March 3, 2024 and prior to that on February 24, 2024. The solar eclipse of April 8 was visible near this epicenter and may have enhanced seismicity in this region.

 

Forecast 162433 had expected this event within this area was likely around

April 24, 2024.

 

O: 25APR2024 20:52:34  31.6N  104.6W ML=2.1  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 25APR2024 13:23:46  31.9N  103.3W ML=2.8  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 25APR2024 20:32:17  31.9N  103.3W ML=3.6  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 25APR2024 20:32:17  31.9N  103.3W ML=3.8  ANSS   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 25APR2024 23:34:16  31.9N  103.3W ML=2.4  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 25APR2024 08:49:23  32.0N  103.3W ML=2.5  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 25APR2024 09:11:18  32.0N  103.3W ML=2.1  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 25APR2024 10:20:53  32.0N  103.3W ML=2.2  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 25APR2024 14:41:00  32.0N  103.3W ML=2.3  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 25APR2024 16:44:08  32.0N  103.3W ML=2.0  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 25APR2024 19:36:44  32.0N  103.3W ML=3.8  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 25APR2024 19:36:44  32.0N  103.3W ML=3.9  ANSS   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 25APR2024 21:48:30  32.0N  103.4W ML=2.1  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 25APR2024 22:39:06  32.0N  103.3W ML=2.3  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 25APR2024 23:23:13  32.0N  103.3W ML=2.8  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 25APR2024 11:50:15  31.6N  104.5W ML=2.0  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS                

P: 24APR2024 162433    31.5N  104.6W 2.0-4.3 AAAAA  SW U.S.A                   

 

An unusual M 3.8 occurred today in the region of northern Jalisco, Mexico. The total eclipse of the sun on April 8, 2024 was visible near this epicenter around 18:20 UT and may have enhanced local seismicity in the past two weeks, The last earthquake of M>=3.8 within about 100 km of this epicenter was an M 3.9 on August 30, 2007 - the only such event in the past 35 years.

 

Forecast 162364 had expected enhanced seismicity in this region in late April.

 

O: 25APR2024 09:14:32  21.4N  102.2W ML=3.8  EMSC   JALISCO, MEXICO              

P: 26APR2024 162364    18.0N  103.0W 3.5-5.2 ACAAA  Michoacan, Mexico