MAJOR AFTERSHOCK FURTHER DAMAGES TURKEY AND SYRIA; TOLLS RISE

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 6, 2023

 

The major earthquake activity in Turkey and Syria continued today with an aftershock of M 7.5-7.6 to the M 7.8 reported in the previous issue of this summary. Nearly 8700 are now confirmed dead in Turkey (6234) and Syria (2500) from these earthquakes and this number expected to continue to rise as hundreds are still trapped below rubble. Estimated death tolls could reach 20,000 in the area. There is little available fuel or electricity in the area, nearly the area of the northeast U.S. The last earthquake causing as many deaths was an M 9.0 in Japan with a massive tsunami on March 11, 2011. An earthquake of M 7.0 in Haiti in January, 2010 is estimated to have taken the lives of 220,000-320,000 people. More than 20,000 were injured with thousands of structures damaged or destroyed according to latest estimates. The number of displaced people - including refugees - affected by these earthquakes numbers in the hundreds of thousands. Regional airports are only servicing rescue aircraft. All civilian planes have been grounded. Arrival of aid is also hampered by civil unrest in Turkey and Syria. Internet photos show large areas of complete devastation. The earthquake occurred during harsh winter weather and a cholera epidemic which are expected to continue. Today's event of M 7.5-7.6 occurred near local solar noon and was probably promoted by strong tidal stresses which maximize near this hour with the full moon.

 

The tidal forecast for this full moon had been noted in this and previous issues of this summary as:

 

"The full moon will arrive at 18:29 UT on February 5, 2023. Longitudes which are at local solar noon are near 100 West while those at local solar midnight are near 80 East. In the west these include areas of the central U.S. including Texas and Oklahoma/Kansas and Canada and western Mexico and part of the East Pacific Rise while in the east the areas of Afghanistan, Hindu Kush, Pakistan, China, central Asia and areas of the Indian Ridge system are included. These are the most likely regions to be subject to tidal triggering from February 2-8. While a major earthquake is unlikely at this time, regions of western Mexico and/or Central Asia could see a strong quake with this full moon.

 

Today's aftershock was reported by NEIC to have been felt with intensity IX with additional damage in Kahramanmaras, Turkey in Elbistan, Gaziantep with additional strong shaking in Malatya, Osmaniye, Kayseri, Turkey.

 

An earthquake of 6.0 also occurred south of this and was reported felt with intensity IV in Lebanon and Israel as well as III in Ankara, Turkey. This event apparently was triggered by SFE from an C7.8 solar flare which reached its maximum output at the time of this earthquake. Data on this flare (SWPC) and earthquake follow:

 

The strongest solar flare since last issue of this summary was a C4.4 on February 7. An earthquake of M 4.8 in the Guam, Mariana Islands occurred at the height of this flare and may have been triggered by SFE. It was preceded by an M 5.0 in Guam which was closely associated with a flare of C2.3 which was simultaneous with that earthquake.

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

#------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

XXXX       0230   0240      0250   C2.3      (February 7, 2023)   1.6E-03  

XXXX       0545   0600      0610   C4.4      (February 7, 2023)   2.0E-03  

 

5600       1158   1212      1225   C7.8      (February 6, 2023)   7.6E-03  

 

A tsunami of 10 cm height was reported by EMSC at a distance in the Black Sea 266 km north of this activity. It was recorded 2 hours 27 minutes after the mainshock.  This was the only report of a regional tsunami accompanying this seismicity in Turkey.

 

Following is a listing of earthquake in the Syria-Turkey aftershock zone today of M>=5.0. A more complete listing can be found in the regional "EUROPE" section of this summary. Forecast 150467 had expected this activity was likely in this area of Turkey around February 7, 2023. These epicenters are at 144-146 degrees  from the many major earthquakes in Tonga and Fiji in early November, 2022 and were probably promoted by energy from those sources.

 

O: 06FEB2023 20:37:53  37.3N   37.1E Mw=5.3  EMSC   CENTRAL TURKEY

O: 06FEB2023 11:01:34  37.6N   37.4E mb=5.0  EMSC   CENTRAL TURKEY

O: 06FEB2023 13:39:25  37.6N   37.0E mb=5.1  EMSC   CENTRAL TURKEY

O: 07FEB2023 03:13:13  37.8N   37.6E Mw=5.5  EMSC   CENTRAL TURKEY

O: 06FEB2023 10:26:48  38.0N   38.0E mb=6.0  EMSC   CENTRAL TURKEY

O: 06FEB2023 13:44:52  38.0N   37.5E mb=5.0  EMSC   CENTRAL TURKEY

O: 06FEB2023 16:43:29  38.0N   36.5E mb=5.0  EMSC   CENTRAL TURKEY

O: 06FEB2023 10:24:49  38.1N   37.2E Mw=7.5  EMSC   CENTRAL TURKEY

O: 06FEB2023 12:02:11  38.1N   36.5E mb=6.0  EMSC   CENTRAL TURKEY

O: 06FEB2023 15:14:36  38.1N   37.7E mb=5.1  EMSC   CENTRAL TURKEY

O: 06FEB2023 10:36:00  38.2N   37.8E mb=5.8  EMSC   CENTRAL TURKEY

O: 07FEB2023 07:11:15  38.2N   38.6E Mw=5.4  EMSC   EASTERN TURKEY

O: 06FEB2023 10:51:32  38.3N   38.1E mb=5.7  EMSC   EASTERN TURKEY

O: 06FEB2023 13:07:47  38.3N   37.5E mb=5.0  EMSC   CENTRAL TURKEY

O: 06FEB2023 15:33:34  38.3N   38.2E mb=5.2  EMSC   EASTERN TURKEY

O: 06FEB2023 20:53:25  38.4N   38.2E mb=5.0  EMSC   EASTERN TURKEY

P:  7FEB2023 150467    38.0N   36.0E 3.5-5.0 AAAAA  Turkey                     

 

 

It is of some interest to see if expected triggering is occurring the first day after the Mainshock.  In the previous issue of this summary far-field excited seismicity was expected (Marked at the line start as "F"). The next line identifies areas of moderate earthquakes today and is marked with "O:" as follows:

 

 

 

F144 Degrees - Tonga/Fiji/New Zealand, East Pacific Rise

F144 Degrees - Tonga/Fiji/New Zealand (M 5.0), Samoa (M 5.0), East Pacific Rise, (M 5.0)

F120 Degrees - Coquimbo Chile, New Britain, Coast of Peru, Hawaii,

O120 Degrees - Coquimbo Chile, Coast of Peru, Hawaii,

F100-105 degrees - Panama, Costa Rica, Texas, Central and Southern California and Nevada, Colombia, Southwest Australia, New Guinea, Guam,

O100-105 degrees - Panama, Costa Rica,  Texas, Central and Southern California and Nevada, Colombia (M 4.6), Southwest Australia, New Guinea, Guam,

F90 degrees - Aleutian Islands, Montana-British Columbia border, Southeastern US, Southeastern Alaska, Puerto Rico/Dominican Republic, Molucca Sea, Bonin Islands,

O90 degrees - Vancouver, British Columbia border (M 4.3), Georgia, Southeastern US (M 2.0),  Puerto Rico/Dominican Republic, Molucca Sea (M 4.3, 4.2, ..), Bonin Islands,

O80 degrees - New York, Kuril Is, Java,

F72 degrees - Taiwan, Sumatra, Quebec,

O72 degrees - Taiwan (M 5.1), Sumatra (M 4.1), Quebec,

F60 degrees - Andaman Islands, India

F52 degrees - Myanmar, Greenland, South Africa, Canary, Cape Verde Islands, Mid-Atlantic,

 

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 3.8-4.3 in western

New York. NEIC reported it was felt in Buffalo, NY with maximum intensity IV. This shaking of IV was also felt in Eat Amherst, Grand Island, Cowlesille, Newfane, Gasport, with intensity III-IV as far as Ontario, Pennyslvania, Michigan. It may also have been lightly felt in Maryland, Ohio, Virginia, Connecticut, Delaware, Massachusetts and Connecticut and as far as 500 km from the epicenter. The internet has billed this as the strongest earthquake in the region in the past 40 years. But what does this mean? The only earthquake within about 50 km of this epicenter in the past 35 years was an M 4.5 on September 25, 1998 about 200 km southwest of this epicenter. The closest earthquake to this epicenter with M>=3.7 was an M 3.8 about 100 km to the north on November 26, 1999 - in close temporal association with the M 7.3 in Turkey of November 12, 1999. It is tempting to think that these close associations in time suggest a triggering from the larger Turkey quakes. But the distance between these two epicenters New York event. It is more likely that both the mainshocks in Turkey and the is not at a common node (81 degrees is near the 9th node (40*2 degrees) and no other common triggers are active with the M 4.3 in New York were promoted by strong tidal stresses with the full moon of February 5, 2023.

 

Forecast 150497 had expected today's earthquake in New York State within about

50 km of this epicenter was likely around February 9, 2023.

 

 

O:  6FEB2023 11:15:49  42.9N   78.8W mb=3.8  EMSC   NEW YORK                     

O:  6FEB2023 11:15:49  42.9N   78.8W MB=4.3  ECAN of Buffalo, NY                 

P:  9FEB2023 150497    43.0N   78.0W 2.0-4.4 BAAAA  New York State             

P:  9FEB2023 150497    43.0N   78.0W 2.0-4.4 BAAAA  New York State             

 

An M 5.3 also occurred in the region of the northern Kuril Islands, Japan today, the largest event today outside the Turkey-Syria aftershock zone. Like the event in New York, this is also located at the ninth node (80 degrees) from the  mainshocks in Syria.  The last earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter with M>=5.3was an M 5.4 on November 27, 2022. Larger earthquakes in this area occurred as an M 6.0 in August 24, 2021 and an M 7.5 on March 25, 2020. Forecast 1500495 had expected this area would be active within about 50 km around February 7, 2023.

 

O:  7FEB2023 06:45:40  49.1N  156.0E Mw=5.3  EMSC   KURIL ISLANDS                

P:  7FEB2023 150495    49.0N  155.0E 3.5-5.6 AAAAA  NE Pacific                 

 

A third moderate earthquake also occurred near the 80 degrees distance from Turkey today. This event of M 5.5 was located in Java, Indonesia. It is possible that this distance from Turkey was particularly enhanced at this time.

NEIC reported this earthquake of M 5.5 in Java, Indonesia was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of Java, Indonesia in Sukabumi, Serpong, Depok, Pamulang, Jakarta, Bekasi and Bandung. Forecast 150363 had expected enhanced seismicity in this region was likely in early February.

 

O:  7FEB2023 00:35:53   7.3S  105.9E mb=5.5  EMSC   JAVA, INDONESIA               

P:  4FEB2023 150363     8.0S  108.0E 4.0-5.7 BABAA  So. of Java                

 

PREVIOUS RECENT LARGE QUAKES IN TURKEY

 

Today's activity in Turkey and Syria was preceded by several large and significant regional foreshocks which were discussed in this summary over the past several years. When an M 4.4 and 4.2 hit the region of Syria on January 21, 2023 with the previous new moon near today's activity, this summary noted in this regard:

 

 

"Several unusual earthquakes also shook the Lebanon-Syria border region today. The largest of these of M 4.4 and 4.2 were felt with maximum intensity Vin Syria at Talkalah and IV in Lebanon. Lesser shaking occurred in Syria at Hims, Tarus and in Lebanon at B'abda and Bayrut, Jabal. This is the strongest earthquake near Lebanon within about 200 km of these epicenters since an M 4.4 on November 30, 2020 about 100 km northeast of this epicenter. The last event listed in the Lebanon-Syria border region occurred on November 26, 2020 about 150 km southeast of today's epicenter with M 4.1, the only such event in the past 2.5 years in this region. No earthquakes of M>=4.4 have occurred within about 100 km of today's epicenters in at least 35 years, so the coordination with the closest lunar approach to the earth in nearly 1000 years cannot be dismissed as coincidence.  It is located near the longitude of maximum stress with the current new moon and was probably related to The tidal forecast for this new moon has been previously reviewed in this summary as:

 

"The new moon will arrive on January 21, 2023 at 20:53 UT. Longitudes which are at sub-solar conditions (local solar noon) at this time are near 135 West while those at local solar midnight are near 45 East longitude. In the west these include most of the coastline of North America from Alaska to California and portions of the East Pacific Rise while in the east the areas of Iran, Eastern Turkey, eastern Africa, and central Asia are included. These are the regions most likely to see substantial tidal triggering in the next week. Other areas may also see triggering with this new moon tidal alignment especially areas where SFE is also active. Tidally triggered events are most likely to occur new local solar midnight or noon. This is a super-moon that is the closest to the earth of any approach since the year 1030 with the next such approach 353 years from now. Tides are related to the third power of the distance, so even a small reduction in distance and have a considerable effect on tidal stress and subsequent tidally related seismicity. Likelihood of a strong to major tidally promoted earthquake in the next week are considered moderate to high." (January 18-21, 2023)

 

Forecast 150196 had expected today's event in this area to the west of this epicenter was likely around January 26, 2023. This activity is located at

145 degrees from recent strong earthquakes in Tonga an Fiji and  at 103 degrees

from the M 6.4 in Northern California of December 20, 2022 and may be related to energy from those sources. Readers may recall that the M 7.2 in the Molucca Sea of January 18, 2023 was also at 103 degrees from the  M 6.4 in Northern California." (January 21, 2023)

 

When an M 4.7 foreshock hit near today's activity  on October 9, 2022 this summary noted:

 

"An earthquake of M 4.7 shook areas of eastern Turkey today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Elazig, Turkey in Elazig and Kovancilar. Two earthquakes have hit this area in the past year with M>=4.7 - an M 4.8 on September 16, 2022 and an M 5.3 on April 9, 2022. At the time of the M 5.3 in April, 2022 this summary noted in this regard:

 

"A moderate earthquake of M 5.3 in eastern Turkey today was strongly felt in the region. NEIC reported intensity VIII in Sincik, Adiyaman, Turkey with IV in Elazig, V in Malatya and IV in Yesilyurt, Turkey. No major damage or casualties were reported with this earthquake. This continues a strong activation of regions around the Black Sea in the past week coinciding with hostilities in Ukraine. More enhanced activity in the area is likely. It is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter since aftershocks of M 5,3-5.5 in April and December, 2020 following and M 6.7 mainshock on January 24, 2020." (April 10, 2022)

 

Today's earthquake appears to have been triggered by a strong solar flare via SFE. This flare of class M6.0 is the strongest since the X1.9 flare of January 8, 2023 (#8040). The earthquake in eastern Turkey occurred within several minutes of this strong flare's maximum and is very likely to have been triggered by SFE from this flare.  Following is the data for flare (340) from SWPC.

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

#------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 340       0305   0342      0408   M6.0      (January 15, 2023)   1.4E-01  

 

... This activity is at 144 degrees from the major earthquakes of November, 2022 in the area of Fiji and Tonga and may have been promoted by energy from that source." (January 15, 2023)

 

Also, when an M 5.0 foreshock occurred this area of Turkey on October 11, 2022 this summary noted in this regard:

 

"A moderate earthquake of M 5.0 occurred today in the area of South-Central Turkey. NEIC reported this earthquake of M 5.0 in South-central Turkey was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of South-central Turkey in Duzici, Osmaniye and Gaziantep. This is the strongest earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter since an M 5.1 on August 19, 2018.

 

The last moderate earthquake in eastern Turkey which may have been a foreshock to today's activity occurred on October 11, 2022. This event occurred with the full moon  of October 9, 2022 similar to the current activity and had been expected in the tidal forecast for that full moon.

 

 

A moderate foreshock of M 5.0 also hit the area on November 2, 2022 and was described at the time as:

 

"A moderate earthquake of M 5.0 occurred today in the area of South-Central Turkey. NEIC reported this earthquake of M 5.0 in South-central Turkey was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of South-central Turkey in Duzici, Osmaniye and Gaziantep. This is the strongest earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter since an M 5.1 on August 19, 2018." (November 2, 2022)

 

When an M 6.8 hit the area on January 24, 2020 this summary noted:

 

"A strong earthquake M 6.8 hit eastern Turkey today. Initial reports are that the quake killed at least 19 and injured more than 600 near Elazig, eastern Turkey. Strong shaking was felt by about half a million people. Internet pictures showed collapsed buildings and rescue teams in the area. The deaths occurred in Elazig province and in Malatya and Diyarbakir according to Turkey's Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD) which also noted that 10  or more buildings had collapsed. Tolls are expected to rise as at least 30 are missing in Elazig Province. The earthquake was shown live on EDESSA TV.

NEIC reported maximum intensity VIII in Kemalive, Erzincan and VI in Turkey at Elazig, Sincik and Malatya; IV in Yesilyurt, Adryaman, Tunceli, Diyarbakie and IV in Mazgirt, and Dogansehir. It was also reported felt in Israel, Iran, Azerbaijan, Romania, Russia, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Georgia. It is likely that this earthquake was triggered by strong tidal stresses associated with the new moon today as it occurred at the longitude of maximum stress within several hours of the new moon completion.  Today's event is the strongest quake in the world since an M 7.1 in Molucca on Novenber 14, 2019 and the second strongest in the past half year. This summary had expected it in the tidal forecast published in previous issues as:

 

"The New Moon will arrive on January 24, 2020 at 21:42 UT. Longitudes which are at local solar midnight at this time are near 40 East while those which are at local solar noon (subsolar) are near 140 West. These include areas of eastern Turkey and eastern Europe in the east and in eastern Alaska south to British Columbia, Canada in the west. While many areas of the world can be activated by tidal stresses these are the areas which see the strongest tidal stresses with this new moon. Global seismicity is expected to be slightly enhanced during the coming week." (January 22-24, 2020)

 

A moderate quake hit west of this on January 22 and was discussed in the context of today's new moon in previous summaries.

 

"A series of moderate to moderately large earthquakes also occurred today in southeastern Alaska, British Columbia and Turkey. These were probably promoted by the new moon tidal stresses as noted in the previous issue of this summary:

 

The strongest of this activity was in western Turkey where an M 5.6 occurred within several hour of local solar midnight and was probably enhanced by tidal stresses associated with the upcoming new moon. Much of the strongest aftershock activity concentrated near local midnight including an M 4.4 and events of M 4.1 and 4.0. NEIC reported this earthquake of M 5.6 in Western Turkey  was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of Western Turkey in Soma (IV); IV in Manisa, Balikesir, Salihli, Odemis and Izmir (IV) and II-III in Akhisar, Menemen, Burhaniye and Edremit, Balikesir, Turkey. The M 5.6 is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 6.3 on June 12, 2017 and prior to that an M 5.9 on May 19, 2011. A similar M 5.6-5.7 event occurred about 200 km northeast of today's epicenter in the area near Istanbul, Turkey on September 26, 2019.

 

At M 6.8 today's event is the strongest in Eastern Turkey within about 250 km  of this epicenter in at least 30 years. The last event in the area of M>=6 was an M 6.1 on March 8, 2010 and prior to that an M 5.8 on March 14, 2005." (January 25, 2020)

 

 

 

GREAT QUAKES DAMAGING, DEADLY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN TURKEY

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 5, 2023

 

Two major to great earthquakes occurred today in Central and eastern Turkey. The first of these was an M 7.8 but an M 7.5 occurred within minutes of local solar noon later in the day and was probably triggered by high tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. Press reports indicate it was felt from Eastern Turkey to the Mediterranean Sea and Cairo, Egypt. At least 1500 are confirmed dead and many more have probably perished in this earthquake of M 7.7-7.9. Many buildings were destroyed or damaged. This is an area where large number of refugees are stationed. These people have fled regional conflicts in Syria, Iran and Ukraine in recent years. Many of these camps were damaged in these earthquakes. At this writing official tolls include 1014 dead, 5383 injured, 29818 building collapsed in Turkey and 326 killed, 1042 injured in Syria. Widespread damage occurred for several hundred km running Southwest to Northeast. The mainshock epicenter was near Gaziantep where a thousand's year historic castlw was also damage. NEIC reported intensity IV in Hasanbeyli, Osmaniey and Islahiye, Gaziantep with VIII also in Nizip and VII in Ikenderun, Turkey and Aleppo, Syria. The mainshock was felt with intensity IV-VI as far as Cairo, Egypt, Kuwait, Tebriz, Iran, Izmir, Turkey, Iraq, Israel, Palestine, Georgia, Jordan, Cyprus, Lebanon. Many moderate aftershocks followed and were felt with moderate to light intensity in the epicentral area. An M 7.5 occurred later northeast of Kahramanmaras, Turkey. Pictures on the internet show massive destruction throughout the area. Rescue teams from many countries are flooding the area. A tsunami warning was issued for areas of the Mediterranean and Black Sea but was later withdrawn. The strongest immediate aftershock was an M 6.7 which was felt with intensity VII in Turkey at Urfa, and Syria at Latakia; VI wsa reported in Adana, Turkey and Tartus, Syria; V in Gaziantep, Erdemli, Turkey and in Hims, Syria and in Lebanon among other areas. This may have been triggered by the onset of a strong geomagnetic storm. This storm began near 00:00 UT on February 6, 2023 and ended after the geomagnetic field at satellite altitudes had dropped from about 100 Nanoteslas (nT) to about 40  NT when it ended abruptly at 01:16 UT (GOES 16 Hp via NOAA). The earthquake in Turkey occurred at 01:17 UT and was likely triggered by this major change in the intensity of the geomagnetic field.

 

The mainshock also occurred within several hours of the complete full  moon as described in this an previous issues of this summary as:

 

"The full moon will arrive at 18:29 UT on February 5, 2023. Longitudes which are at local solar noon are near 100 West while those at local solar midnight are near 80 East. In the west these include areas of the central U.S. including Texas and Oklahoma/Kansas and Canada and western Mexico and part of the East Pacific Rise while in the east the areas of Afghanistan, Hindu Kush, Pakistan, China, central Asia and areas of the Indian Ridge system are included. These are the most likely regions to be subject to tidal triggering from February 2-8. While a major earthquake is unlikely at this time, regions of western Mexico and/or Central Asia could see a strong quake with this full moon.

 

It is likely that tidal stresses were a major factor in this earthquake occurring at this hour and date.

 

The area was also under high tidal stresses with the previous new moon and was near the longitude of maximum tidal stress with that alignment. Residual stresses from that new moon may have also contributed to today's M 7.8 in Turkey. This summary had noted this possibility in late January as:

 

"The new moon will arrive on January 21, 2023 at 20:53 UT. Longitudes which are at sub-solar conditions (local solar noon) at this time are near 135 West while those at local solar midnight are near 45 East longitude. In the west these include most of the coastline of North America from Alaska to California and portions of the East Pacific Rise while in the east the areas of Iran, Eastern Turkey, eastern Africa, and central Asia are included. These are the regions most likely to see substantial tidal triggering in the next week. Other areas may also see triggering with this new moon tidal alignment especially areas where SFE is also active. Tidally triggered events are most likely to occur new local solar midnight or noon. This is a super-moon that is the closest to the earth of any approach since the year 1030 with the next such approach 353 years from now. Tides are related to the third power of the distance, so even a small reduction in distance and have a considerable effect on tidal stress and subsequent tidally related seismicity. Likelihood of a strong to major tidally promoted earthquake in the next week are considered moderate to high." (January 18-22, 2023)

 

The last earthquake within Turkey or within about 500 km of today's epicenter in Central Turkey with M>=7 was an M 7.3 11.3 years ago (11.3X1) about 500 km northeast of today's epicenter on October 23, 2011 - an event which occurred two days before the new moon -  and an M 7.8 in the Izmit, Turkey area on August 17, 1999 (near the new moon). This occurred 33.5 years ago (11.2X3). Astute readers will note that these are both at times (11.3 and 33.5 years from today) when  the solar cycle is maximized (solar cycle period if about 11.2 years). That event is one of the most deadly in recent European history and did massive damage with extensive loss of life near Istanbul. It occurred two days after a solar eclipse was seen in that area and was certainly promoted by tidal effects from that eclipse. This summary noted that event on August 17, 2022 as:

 

 

"At least 17,000 were killed and 50,000 injured from this earthquake which left more than 500,000 homeless and thousands missing. Estimated cost was $7 billion (U.S. Dollars). Severe damage from Istanbul, Kocaeli and Sakryna Provinces of Turkey. Damage occurred to homes, public buildings and mosques.  Liquefaction was common and large sections of several cities were inundated and subsided.  Part of the motorway between Istanbul and Ankara buckled causing cars to crash into each other. Up to 5 meters of displacement occurred along the North Anatolian Fault. A tsunami was generated which caused additional damage in many areas around the Marmara Sea." (August 17, 2022)

 

"The only earthquakes in this area of M>=7.8 in the past century occurred located north of Lake Van. This appears to be the second largest earthquake in eastern Turkey since an M 8.0 in Erzincan in 1939. An M 7.5 occurred on November 24 1976 which damaged 9232 buildings and killed 3840 while a slightly smaller event of M 7.0 on August 19, 1966 killed 2529 and left more than 100,000 homeless in the Erzurum and Mus areas. Varto was almost destroyed in that earthquake." (October 24, 2011)

 

Note that the event of August 19, 1966 is also at a solar cycle from today occurring 56.5 (11.3X5) years ago and within a day of the new moon.

 

Other than these, the area has a long history of recorded damaging earthquakes.

Other such recent earthquakes in or near Turkey occurred in the Caucasus  on August 22, 1978 in eastern Turkey about 500 km northeast of today's epicenter; and on September 6, 1975 both with M 7.8-8.0. Note that the event in 1978 is also at a solar cycle ago - 44.6 years ago (11.3X4). An M 7.8 also hit Turkey on January 24, 1916 but no such event have been recorded within 250 km of today's epicenter in at least 150 years.

 

The closest recorded great earthquake to today's epicenter was an M 7.9-8.0 on December 26, 1939. This summary noted this event on December 26, 2022 as:

 

"Between 20,000 and 30,000 were killed and more than 30,000 homes were destroyed. The large population of homeless severely suffered from winter snow and storms and cold. Most structures were destroyed at Erzincan, Susechri, Resadiye and Niksar. Faulting was observed east of Erzincan and Niksar. The sea was observed to retire 50 meters at Fatsa on the Black Sea and then to return 20 meters above the water line." (December 26, 2022)

 

This earthquake (in 1939) also occurred, like today's within hours of the full moon.

 

Today's earthquake is sufficiently large to considerably affect global seismicity patterns. The pattern this summary is most concerned with is far-field triggering at nodal distance from the mainshock. Strong earthquakes are nodal distances from this event are likely within the next 10-12 days with strong aftershocks with the new moon on February 20, 2023. Some of the areas to watch for enhanced far-field seismicity at this time and their distances from Turkey include:

 

144 Degrees - Tonga/Fiji/New Zealand, East Pacific Rise

120 Degrees - Coquimbo Chile, New Britain, Coast of Peru, Hawaii,

100-105 degrees - Panama, Costa Rica, Texas, Central and Southern California and Nevada, Colombia, Southwest Australia, New Guinea, Guam,

90 degrees - Aleutian Islands, Montana-British Columbia border, Southeastern US, Southeastern Alaska, Puerto Rico/Dominican Republic, Molucca Sea, Bonin Islands,

72 degrees - Taiwan, Sumatra, Quebec,

60 degrees - Andaman Islands, India

52 degrees - Myanmar, Greenland, South Africa, Canary, Cape Verde Islands, Mid-Atlantic,

 

Moderate foreshocks hit within about 150 km of today's epicenters on

 

Strong regional aftershocks with more damage are also expected near the region of central and northern and eastern Turkey in the next week. Residents should avoid damaged buildings during this period.

 

In the previous issue of this summary enhanced global seismicity was expected at this time as a result of returning solar flare activity and the full moon tides as:

 

"Moderately strong earthquakes of M 5.8-5.9 were felt in the Izu Islands, Japan in Coquimbo, Chile (M 5.5) and in eastern New Guinea, PNG today (M 5.9). This probably is the beginning of a more active period in global seismicity over the full moon today and with increased solar activity over the next several days. Watch for a strong earthquake in this period as noted in the tidal forecast (see above and under TIDAL section of this summary).

 

The last earthquake with M>=7.8 in the world occurred on August 12, 2021 in the

South Sandwich Islands with M 8.1 and as an M 8.2 two weeks earlier on July 29, 2021 in  the Alaska Peninsula. Major earthquake often tend to clump together in limited time periods, perhaps triggering each other. It is possible that today's event in Turkey is the first of such a series after a long lull period in global seismicity.

 

Following are the parameters for the major earthquakes in Turkey today. A more extensive listing can be found in the EUROPEEAN Seismicity section of this summary. Forecast 150467 had expected today's activity in Turkey was likely within about 100 km around February 7, 2023. Today's activity is located near 144 degrees from the major earthquakes in Tonga and Fiji of November and December, 2022 and at the third node (120 degrees) from the M 7.0 in the Solomon Islands of November 22, 2022 and 101-102 degrees from the M 6.4 in Northern California of December 20, 2022 and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.

 

O:  6FEB2023 01:17:35  37.2N   37.0E mw=7.8  EMSC   E of Nurda Turkey            

O:  6FEB2023 10:24:49  38.1N   37.2E mw=7.5  EMSC   Central Turkey            

P:  7FEB2023 150467    38.0N   36.0E 3.5-5.0 AAAAA  Turkey                     

 

As this issue of the summary was going to press another aftershock of M 6.0 occurred in the area (at 12:02 UT). It was followed by an M 5.5 in western Turkey in the Izmit area at 12:03 UT. More on these in the next issue of this summary.  The timing of these, however is important as it illustrates another possible source of triggering for these and additional regional seismicity. This  was  a C7.8 solar flare, the strongest such event since January 26. This flare peaked within minutes of these two earthquakes (around 12:02). SWPC gives the following data for this flare:

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

#------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

XXXX       1158   1205      1225   C7.8      (February 6, 2023)   7.6E-03      

 

An unusually large M 4.5 occurred on February 5 in Western Australia. NEIC reported it was felt in this region with intensity II-III in Perth and Albany. This is the strongest earthquake in western Australia within about 250 km of this epicenter since an M 4.7 about 200 km southeast of this on January 5, 2023 and an M 4.8 about 100 km southwest on January 24, 2022. The last such event in this area north of today's epicenter occurred in 2009.  Forecast 150587 had expected this event within about 200 km was likely around February 6, 2023. When the event occurred in January, 2023 this summary noted:

 

"The most unusual earthquake in the world today was an M 4.7 in Western Australia. EMSC reported it was lightly felt in the epicentral area. This event is the strongest within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 4.8 on January 24, 2022 and prior to that an M 4.8 on October 9, 2007." (January 5, 2023)

 

This activity is at 103 degrees from the earthquakes in Turkey today.  It is possible this node was active triggering both of these events.

 

O: 05FEB2023 05:04:27  33.3S  117.0E ML=2.7  EMSC   WESTERN AUSTRALIA

O: 05FEB2023 01:13:58  33.4S  117.0E ML=2.5  EMSC   WESTERN AUSTRALIA

O:  5FEB2023 00:40:01  32.8S  117.5E mb=4.5  EMSC   WESTERN AUSTRALIA            

O:  5FEB2023 18:25:22  33.4S  117.0E ML=2.8  EMSC   WESTERN AUSTRALIA            

P:  6FEB2023 150587    31.0S  118.0E 2.0-4.4 ABAAA  So. Australia              

 

 

MODERATELY LARGE QUAKES NEW GUINEA; CENTRAL CHILE; IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 4, 2023

 

Moderately strong earthquakes of M 5.8-5.9 were felt in the Izu Islands, Japan in Coquimbo, Chile (M 5.5) and in eastern New Guinea, PNG today (M 5.9). This is probably is the beginning of a more active period in global seismicity over the full moon today and with increased solar activity over the next several days. Watch for a strong earthquake in this period as noted in the tidal forecast for this full moon:

 

"The full moon will arrive at 18:29 UT on February 5, 2023. Longitudes which are at local solar noon are near 100 West while those at local solar midnight are near 80 East. In the west these include areas of the central U.S. including Texas and Oklahoma/Kansas and Canada and western Mexico and part of the East Pacific Rise while in the east the areas of Afghanistan, Hindu Kush, Pakistan, China, central Asia and areas of the Indian Ridge system are included. These are the most likely regions to be subject to tidal triggering from February 2-8. While a major earthquake is unlikely at this time, regions of western Mexico and/or Central Asia could see a strong quake with this full moon. A moderately strong earthquake is considered likely in the period within three days of this full moon." (February 3-5, 2023)

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.8-5.9 in the Izu Islands south of Honshu, Japan. JMA reported it was lightly felt in the area of southeastern Honshu, Japan. The last earthquake of larger magnitude within about 200 km of this epicenter in the Izu Islands was an M 6.4-6.6 on November 29, 2021. Forecast 150429 had expected enhanced seismicity in this area was likely around February 6, 2023. This activity is at 100 degrees from the M 7.6 in Michoacan, Mexico of September 19, 2022 and may  have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O:  5FEB2023 00:03:20  32.7N  141.7E Mw=5.8  EMSC   IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION    

P:  6FEB2023 150429    34.0N  139.0E 3.5-5.9 ABBAA  Central/So. Honshu Japan   

 

An M 5.5 moderately large earthquake also shook the area of Coquimbo, Chile today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Coquimbo at Coquimbo and La Serena. GUC reported this earthquake was felt with intensity  VI in  Coquimbo at La Serena,Andacollo; V in La higuera, Monte Patria, Rio Hurtado, Paiguano, Vicuna, Combarbala, Ovalle, Punitaqui, Tongoy; IV in Canela, Illapel; III in Salamanca, and Punta de Choros; and IV in Atacama at Copiapo, Tierra Amarilla, Alto del Carmen, Freirina, Huasco and Vallenar, Chile. This earthquake was preceded by a series of foreshocks over the past day including and M 4.8 yesterday. An M 4.0 foreshock today was felt with intensity II in Coquimbo and La Serena. A similar event of M 5.5 hit about 100 km south of today's epicenter on January 12, 2023 but the last with significantly larger magnitude in this area was an M 5.8 on May 2, 2021, the largest in this region in the past 2.5 years. Forecast 150572 had expected today's event in this region was likely around February 5, 2023.

 

Forecast 150572 had expected today's event with magnitude up to M 5.6 was likely within about 100 km around February 5, 2023. This activity is located at 147 degrees from the M 7.2 in the Molucca area of January 18 and was probably promoted by energy from that source.

 

O:  5FEB2023 01:02     29.7S   71.3W mb=5.5  GUC    Coquimbo at La Serena,Andacoll

O:  4FEB2023 11:52:14  29.4S   72.8W ML=4.2  EMSC   OFF COAST OF COQUIMBO, CHILE 

O:  5FEB2023 01:02:45  29.7S   71.1W Mw=5.5  EMSC   COQUIMBO, CHILE              

O:  4FEB2023 10:39:53  29.8S   71.7W mb=4.0  EMSC   OFFSHORE COQUIMBO, CHILE     

P:  5FEB2023 150572    29.0S   72.0W 4.0-5.6 AAAAA  Coast Central Chile        

P:  5FEB2023 150572    29.0S   72.0W 4.0-5.6 AAAAA  Coast Central Chile        

 

An M 5.9 also occurred today in the region of Eastern New Guinea. NEIC reported maximum shaking with intensity V in the Eastern Highlands in Kainantu. Intensity II-III was also felt in Goroka, Lae Morobe, Mount Hagen and Port Moresby. It was preceded less than an hour earlier by and M 4.4 regional foreshock. This is the strongest event in New Guinea within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 7.6 on September 10, 2022. This is probably an aftershock - the largest to date - of that event.  Forecast 150357 had expected today's event within about 50 km was likely around February 2, 2023.

 

O:  4FEB2023 12:22:37   6.4S  146.3E Mw=5.9  EMSC   EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G

P:  2FEB2023 150357     7.0S  146.0E 4.0-5.4 AAAAA  New Ireland                

 

An unusually large M 4.5 occurred today in Western Australia. NEIC reported it was felt in this region with intensity II-III in Perth and Albany. This is the strongest earthquake in western Australia within about 250 km of this epicenter since an M 4.7 about 200 km southeast of this on January 5, 2023 and an M 4.8 about 100 km southwest on January 24, 2022. The last such event in this area north of today's epicenter occurred in 2009.  Forecast 150587 had expected this event within about 200 km was likely around February 6, 2023. When the event occurred in January, 2023 this summary noted:

 

"The most unusual earthquake in the world today was an M 4.7 in Western Australia. EMSC reported it was lightly felt in the epicentral area. This event is the strongest within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 4.8 on January 24, 2022 and prior to that an M 4.8 on October 9, 2007." (January 5, 2023)

 

This activity is at 142 degrees from the M 7.6 in Michoacan, Mexico of September 19, 2022 and at the third node from the M 6.8 in Argentina of January 20, 2023 and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.

 

O: 05FEB2023 05:04:27  33.3S  117.0E ML=2.7  EMSC   WESTERN AUSTRALIA

O: 05FEB2023 01:13:58  33.4S  117.0E ML=2.5  EMSC   WESTERN AUSTRALIA

O:  5FEB2023 00:40:01  32.8S  117.5E mb=4.5  EMSC   WESTERN AUSTRALIA            

P:  6FEB2023 150587    31.0S  118.0E 2.0-4.4 ABAAA  So. Australia              

 

An M 3.9 occurred today in the British Columbia region of Canada. NEIC reported it was felt in British Columbia in Kimberley, Cranbrook, Invermere, Nelson, Castlegar and White Rock and in Porthill, Idaho. This unusual event is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 4.4 about 150 km north of today's epicenter on February 14, 2021. Similar earthquakes of M 3.9 and 4.1 hit about 150 km south of today's epicenter on April 24, 2015. Forecast 150494 had expected seismic enhancement south of this in northern Montana was likely around February 7, 2023. This event is at 104 degrees from the M 7.2 in the Molucca area of January 18 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O:  5FEB2023 04:39:10  49.9N  116.4W ML=3.9  EMSC   BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA     

P:  7FEB2023 150494    47.5N  115.8W 2.0-3.9 ACAAA  Montana/Idaho              

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.2 in the central

Andreanof Islands, Aleutians, Alaska. This is the strongest earthquake within  about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 4.2 on November 14, 2022. The last such earthquake in the western or central Andreanof Islands of larger magnitude was an M 4.8 on December 5, 2022, two months ago. Forecast 150517 had expected today's activity within about 50 km around February 4.

 

O:  4FEB2023 18:09:48  51.7N  177.5W mb=4.2  EMSC   ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS

P:  4FEB2023 150517    51.8N  178.0W 3.5-4.9 AAAAA  Andreanoff Isls, Aleutians 

 

The strongest earthquake within the western U.S. (outside Alaska) occurred as an M 3.3 near the California border in Nevada. It may have been triggered by SFE (see below). The last earthquake of M>=3.3 in this area of Nevada was an M 3.7 on January 28, 2023. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

"An M 3.7 was also felt in the area of Nevada near the border with California today. NEIC reported it may have been felt with intensity II in Nevada at Fallon and Glenbrook. The last earthquake in Nevada within about 50 km of this epicenter with M>=3.7 occurred on August 30, 2022 with M 3.9. The last of significantly larger magnitude occurred nearly a year ago as an M 4.7 on February 15, 2022." (January 29, 2023)

 

Forecast 150421 had expected today's event within about 50 km was likely  around February 3.

 

O: 05FEB2023 03:25:30  38.2N  117.9W ML=2.5  EMSC   NEVADA

O: 05FEB2023 03:32:24  38.2N  117.9W ml=2.2  EMSC   NEVADA

O:  5FEB2023 03:23:06  38.2N  117.9W ML=3.3  EMSC   NEVADA                       

P:  3FEB2023 150421    37.8N  118.2W 2.5-4.8 AAAAA  California/Nevada area     

 

The largest solar flare today was an C6.6 beginning at 0316 UT on February 5. This is the strongest flare in the past 10 days - since an M2.8 on January 26, 2023 (#4280). While it was short, it apparently helped trigger a series of events in Nevada, including the largest event in California and Nevada today - an M 3.3 and aftershocks of 2.2 and 2.5. These occurred at the maximum X-ray output of this flare. Following is the flare data (SWPC) for this solar data:

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

#------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

XXXX       0316   0326      0331   C6.6      (February 5, 2023)   2.6E-03  

 

The strongest earthquake  in the U.S. outside Alaska today was an M 3.7 in western Texas. NEIC reported this earthquake of M 3.7 in Western Texas was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of Western Texas. This event occurred near local solar noon at a longitude consistent with tidal triggering with today's full moon and was probably promoted by tidal stresses. The last earthquake within about 100 km of this epicenter in western Texas with M>=3.7 was an M 4.9 on November 24, 2022. An M 5.4 hit the area on November 16, 2022. These are probably aftershocks of that event. Forecast 150451 had expected today's event within about 10 km around February 6, 2023. This activity is at the third node (120 degrees) from the M 7.2 in the Molucca area of January 18 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 05FEB2023 00:48:21  31.7N  104.2W ML=2.5  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 05FEB2023 00:48:21  31.7N  104.2W ML=2.5  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O:  4FEB2023 19:40:20  31.6N  104.0W mb=3.7  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS                

P:  6FEB2023 150451    31.7N  104.0W 2.0-4.0 AAAAA  SW U.S.A                    

 

A series of light earthquakes also occurred in the northern Gulf of California today, south of Southern California. These events of M 3.5-3.9 were not reported felt in this remote area which occasionally sees swarms like this related to solar or flare activity. Forecast 150403 had expected this activity within this area around February 5. This activity is at 102 degrees from the M 7.6 in New Guinea (and today's aftershock of M 5.9) of September 10, 2022 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 04FEB2023 10:00:55  30.8N  114.3W ML=3.5  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 04FEB2023 10:22:20  30.8N  114.1W ML=3.7  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 04FEB2023 10:41:18  30.8N  114.1W ML=3.5  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 04FEB2023 10:43:11  30.9N  114.2W ML=3.9  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 04FEB2023 14:05:18  30.9N  114.5W ML=3.6  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 04FEB2023 14:26:49  30.9N  114.2W ML=3.5  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O:  4FEB2023 10:13:24  30.4N  114.3W ML=3.5  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA            

P:  5FEB2023 150403    30.0N  114.0W 3.5-5.1 AAAAA  Gulf of California         

 

 

 

MODERATE QUAKES IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC AREA

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 3, 2023

 

Moderate earthquakes hit several areas of the Southwest Pacific today. These included an M 5.2 in Tonga; an M 5.1 in Vanuatu and an M 5.0 in North Islands, New Zealand.

 

The largest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.2 in central Tonga. NEIC reported it was lightly felt with intensity II in Nuku'alofa, Tonga. The last earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter with M>=5.2 occurred on January 11 and January 12, 2023 with M 5.3, 5.3 and 5.6. The last such event within about 150 km of this epicenter was an M 5.4 on December 30, 2022. Forecast 150579 had expected today's event within about 150 km was likely in early February, 2023.

 

O:  4FEB2023 05:09:39  21.9S  174.1W mb=5.2  EMSC   TONGA                        

P:  8FEB2023 150579    21.0S  175.0W 4.0-5.8 BAAAA  Tonga Islands              

 

 

A regional aftershock of the M 4.8 in North Island, New Zealand occurred today with M 5.0 about 100 km south of that earlier epicenter. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity IV in Napier Hawke's Bay and II-III in Taupo, Hastings, Whakatane and Palmerston North, North Island, New Zealand. GEONET reported this earthquake was felt with moderate intensity in the area northeast of Taupo. This earthquake was felt with light to moderate intensity throughout most of North Island. 2022 responded with felt information for this earthquake including 1448 who felt it with weak intensity and 527 with light shaking; 44 moderate; 1 strong; 0 severe and 2 extreme. Today's event is the first of M>=5 to hit within about 100 km of this epicenter since an M 5.1 on December 2, 2022 and an M 5.4 on November 30, 2022, the only such events in the area in the past years. Forecast 150591 had expected this activity was likely in early February 2023. This epicenter is at the fifth node (52 degrees) from the M 7.6 in the Banda Sea of January 9, 2023 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 04FEB2023 02:53:00  38.8S  175.9E ML=3.1  EMSC   NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND

O: 03FEB2023 23:14:22  38.8S  175.9E MS=5.0  GEONET Felt with moderate intensity

O:  3FEB2023 23:14:20  38.9S  175.9E Mw=5.0  EMSC   NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND  

P:  3FEB2023 150591    40.0S  174.0E 3.0-4.5 ABBAA  North Island, N.Z.         

P:  9FEB2023 150591    40.0S  175.0E 3.0-4.4 CBAAA  North Island, N.Z.         

 

A moderate M 5.1 continued elevated seismicity in central Vanuatu today. This follows a similar M 5.1 yesterday in the area which had been addressed in this summary as:

 

"A volcanic eruption was reported to have occurred today in the region of Vanuatu. Internet reported an ash and lava eruption from an underwater volcano. An M 5.1 in Vanuatu occurred near local solar noon and may have been associated with this eruption. This earthquake occurred near local solar noon and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses. It had been anticipated in forecast 150569 to occur in early February within about 100 km of today's epicenter." (February 2-3, 2023)

 

Forecast 150568 had expected this area would see enhanced seismicity within about 100 km was likely in early February.

 

O:  3FEB2023 17:54:29  15.5S  167.6E Mw=5.1  EMSC   VANUATU                      

P:  7FEB2023 150568    15.0S  168.0E 4.0-5.6 BAAAA  Vanuatu Islands            

 

An M 3.5 occurred in western Texas today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity V in Snyder, Texas and II in Rotan, Texas. This may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses accompanying the next full moon of February 5, 2023 as it occurred near local solar noon and the longitude of maximum tidal stress with that event as noted in this and previous issues of this summary:

 

"The full moon will arrive at 18:29 UT on February 5, 2023. Longitudes which are at local solar noon are near 100 West while those at local solar midnight are near 80 East. In the west these include areas of the central U.S. including Texas and Oklahoma/Kansas and Canada and western Mexico and part of the East Pacific Rise while in the east the areas of Afghanistan, Hindu Kush, Pakistan, China, central Asia and areas of the Indian Ridge system are included. These are the most likely regions to be subject to tidal triggering from February 2-8. While a major earthquake is unlikely at this time, regions of western Mexico and/or Central Asia could see a strong quake with this full moon.

 

This activity is at 103 degrees from the M 7.0 in the Solomon Islands of  November 22, 2022 and may have been promoted by energy from that source. Forecast 150451 had expected today's event within about 100 km was likely around February 3, 2023.

 

O: 03FEB2023 07:58:23  32.7N  100.7W ML=2.5  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 03FEB2023 07:56:49  32.8N  100.7W ML=2.3  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 03FEB2023 13:21:43  32.8N  100.7W ML=2.0  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 03FEB2023 19:18:34  32.8N  100.7W mb=3.2  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 03FEB2023 19:18:34  32.8N  100.7W mb=3.5  ANSS   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 03FEB2023 20:57:00  32.8N  100.7W mb=2.8  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O:  4FEB2023 02:21:16  32.3N  101.9W ML=3.1  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS                

P:  3FEB2023 150451    31.7N  103.0W 2.0-4.0 AAAAA  SW U.S.A                   

 

The strongest earthquakes in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.2 in the Alaska Peninsula and an M 4.2 in the western Fox Islands, Aleutians, Alaska. The last earthquake of M>=4.2 in the Alaska Peninsula was an M 4.6 on November 20, 2022. This event occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses at this hour. Forecast 150516 had expected enhanced seismicity in this region in early February.

 

 

O:  3FEB2023 10:36:38  56.0N  157.8W mb=4.2  EMSC   ALASKA PENINSULA             

O: 03FEB2023 15:24:16  55.7N  157.6W ML=3.1  EMSC   ALASKA PENINSULA

P:  5FEB2023 150516    57.8N  154.7W 3.5-5.1 ABBAA  Alaska Peninsula           

 

The M 4.2 in the Fox Islands was not reported felt in this remote area. It was followed by moderate aftershocks of M 4.0, 4.0 and 3.8. One of these occurred within several minutes of local solar midnight and may have been promoted by high tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. These may be aftershocks of an M 4.8 north of this on January 22, 2023. The last quake within about 100 km of M>=4.2 was ;an M 4.3 on January 2, 2023 and an M 4.9 on  December 5, 2022. Forecasts 150524 and 150251 had expected enhanced seismicity in this area was likely within about 25 km at the end of January or in early February, 2023. These events are at the third node (120 degrees) from the M 6.8 in Argentina of January 20, 2023 and at the fifth node (72 degrees) from recent strong quakes in Tonga and Fiji and the Molucca Sea quake of M 7.2 of January 18, 2023 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 03FEB2023 11:26:20  52.1N  169.3W mb=4.0  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

O: 03FEB2023 07:05:05  52.2N  169.4W mb=4.2  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

O: 03FEB2023 08:35:33  52.2N  169.4W mb=4.0  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

O:  4FEB2023 02:33:11  52.5N  169.5W ml=3.8  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

P:  2FEB2023 150524    53.9N  169.3W 3.5-5.2 ABAAA  Fox Islands, Aleutians     

P: 29JAN2023 150251    52.4N  169.4W 3.5-4.9 BAAAA  Fox Islands, Aleutians     

 

 

 

MODERATE AFTERSHOCK SHAKES NORTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 2, 2023

 

 

An unusual earthquake of M 4.9-5.0 was widely felt south of Auckland, New Zealand today. NEIC reported maximum shaking with intensity V in Waihi, Waikato, North Island with IV in Morrinsville, Katikati, Bay of Plenty and II-III in Tauranga, Hamilton, Te Awamutu, Huntly, Te Puke, Te Kauwhata and Tokoroa among other communities. GEONET reported it was felt with moderate intensity in the Auckland area of North Island, New Zealand. 11166 people reported feeling this event; 3423 with weak intensity; 5070 with light shaking; 2307 moderate; 344 strong; 14 with severe and 8 with extreme shaking. This earthquake occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. It is probably an aftershock of an M 5.5 which hit the area on January 3, 2023. That event was described in this summary at the time as:

 

"An M 5.1-5.5 earthquake was  widely felt in the Auckland area of North Island, New Zealand today. Auckland, New Zealand, with nearly 1.5 million residents was first settled around 1350 AD and in the largest city in New Zealand and within several thousand km.” (January 3, 2023)

 

 

Today's M 5.1-5.5 is the strongest earthquake at shallow depth in the Auckland, New Zealand area within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 5.6 on July 18, 2004 about 100 km southeast of today's epicenter. The only event in the area of larger magnitude in the past 35 years was an M 6.2 about 50 km from this event on June 21, 1992. This date may ring a bell to some as an M 7.3 occurred a week later in Lander, California on June 28, 1992  ..." (January 4, 2023)

 

Forecast 150586 had expected today's earthquake was likely within about 100 km  of this epicenter in early February, 2023. This activity is located at the sixth node (60 degrees) from the M 7.2 in the Molucca Sea of January 18, 2023 and at the seventh node (51.4 degrees) from the Banda Sea M 7.6 of January 9, 2023 and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.

 

O: 02FEB2023 23:43:33  37.6S  175.6E ML=3.5  EMSC   NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND

O: 02FEB2023 13:02:43  37.6S  175.7E ML=4.8  GEONET Felt with moderate intensity

O:  2FEB2023 13:02:43  37.6S  175.7E mb=4.9  EMSC   NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND  

P:  6FEB2023 150586    37.0S  177.0E 3.0-4.6 BAAAA  North Island, N.Z.         

 

 

An earthquake of M 5.0 was felt today in the region of Guadeloupe, Leeward Islands. NEIC reported intensity III in Guadeloupe at Les Abymes and Petit-Bourg. This appears to be a regional aftershock of an M 6.2 about 100 km northeast of this epicenter on January 20, 2023. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

 

 

"A strong earthquake of M 6.2 also occurred in the area of Guadeloupe today where it was widely felt. NEIC reported maximum intensity IV in Guadeloupe in Basse-Terre at Le Gosier, Saint-Claude, Baie-Mahault, Petit-Bourg and II-III in Bouillant, Point-Noire, Sante-Rose, Lamentin, Terre-de-Bas and in Montserrat.

This earthquake occurred at intermediate focal depth of 166 km. Several foreshocks hit the area in the past week. The last earthquake in the west Indies within about 300 km of today's event of M 6.2 with equal or greater magnitude was an M 7.4 on November 29, 2007. Like today's earthquake it occurred at an intermediate depth of 156 km about 250 km southeast of today's epicenter. The last and only event within about 100 km of this epicenter with equal or larger magnitude in the past 35 years was an M 6.2 on November 21, 2004." (January 21, 2023)

 

Forecast 150391 had expected today's event within about 100 km was likely in early February.

 

O:  2FEB2023 13:13:23  16.7N   61.0W mb=5.0  EMSC   GUADELOUPE REGION, LEEWARD ISL

P:  4FEB2023 150381    15.0N   61.0W 3.0-5.2 ABAAA  Leeward Islands            

P: 10FEB2023 150381    17.0N   62.0W 3.0-5.5 CAAAA  Leeward Islands            

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.0 in southern Alaska. This broke a quiet period in this area. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II-III in Southern Alaska in Tyonek, Kasilof, Sterling, Soldotna, Kenai, Clam Gulch, Willow, Anchorage and Ninilchik among others. This is the strongest earthquake in southern Alaska within about 150 km of this epicenter since an M 5.1 on March 12, 2022 and prior to that an M 5.1 on January 21, 2022. The last event in this region of larger magnitude was an M 5.9 on December 21, 2021.

 

Forecast 150543 had expected today's event within about 25 km was likely around February 3, 2023. This epicenter is located at the fourth node (90 degrees) from the M 7.6 in the Banda Sea of January 9, 2023 and from recent strong earthquakes in Tonga and Fiji and may have been promoted by energy from these sources.

 

O:  2FEB2023 14:48:24  61.1N  152.1W Mw=5.0  EMSC   SOUTHERN ALASKA              

P:  3FEB2023 150543    61.3N  152.3W 3.2-4.9 AAAAA  Central Alaska             

 

An M 4.1 also occurred in the Southern Yukon Territory, Canada today. This is the strongest aftershock to date of an M 4.5 that occurred at this epicenter on  January 30, 2023. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

 

"An M 4.5 also occurred in the Southern Yukon Territory, Canada. This was the strongest quake in the U.S. or Canada but it was not reported felt. The last earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter with M>=4.5 was an M 4.5 about 150 km southwest of this epicenter on January 11, 2022. An M 4.9 on May 9, 2021 was the last such event within about 100 km of today's epicenter." (January 30, 2023)

 

Today's earthquake was likely triggered by a solar flare of class near C3.9 (#5200). This flare peaked within several minutes of the occurrence of  this earthquake and probably triggered it by SFE. The only solar flare in the past 7 days of higher class was a C5.7 on February 1 (#5140). A stronger flare of M2.8-class occurred on January 26, 2023 (#4280). The flares of late February 1 were closely associated with moderate aftershocks near Malta. Preliminary data for these flares follow:

 

Forecast 150539 had expected this earthquake was likely within about 50 km around February 1. This event is located at the seventh node (51 degrees) from the M 7.6 in Michoacan, Mexico of September 19, 2022 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 03FEB2023 03:09:45  61.5N  140.7W ML=3.2  EMSC   SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY, CANADA

O:  3FEB2023 02:53:15  61.5N  140.7W ML=4.1  ANSS   SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY, CANA

O:  3FEB2023 02:53:16  61.5N  140.7W ML=3.9  EMSC   SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY, CANA

P:  1FEB2023 150539    61.3N  140.1W 3.2-5.0 AAAAA  Central Alaska             

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

#------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

5200       0231   0250      0300   C3.9      (February 3, 2023)   4.8E-03  

 

5170       0424   0439      0451   C1.3      (February 2, 2023)   1.9E-03  

5180       1401   1412      1429   C1.3      (February 2, 2023)   1.9E-03  

 

5140       2233   2248      2300   C5.7      (February 1, 2023)   6.2E-03  

 

4280       1253   1306      1315   M2.8      (January 26, 2023)   2.1E-02  

 

 

A volcanic eruption was reported to have occurred today in the region of Vanuatu. Internet reported an ash and lava eruption from an underwater volcano. An M 5.1 in Vanuatu occurred near local solar noon and may have been associated with this eruption. This earthquake occurred near local solar noon and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses. It had been anticipated in forecast 150569 to occur in early February within about 100 km of today's epicenter.

 

O:  3FEB2023 00:10:07  14.6S  166.8E mb=5.1  EMSC   VANUATU                      

P:  7FEB2023 150568    15.0S  168.0E 4.0-5.6 BAAAA  Vanuatu Islands            

 

STRONG QUAKE DAMAGING IN MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES; MODERATE QUAKE IN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 1, 2023

 

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.0-6.1 in the region of southern Mindanao, Philippines. NEIC reported intensity VIII with damage in Southern Mindanao at Monkayo, Montevista; VII in Mawab, VI in Pagsabangan, V in Nabuntura, Limga-an, Canocotan, Panabo; IV in New Visayas, Kinamayan. PHIVOLCS also gave this event M 6.0 and reported intensity VI shaking in Compostela, Mawab, Monkayo, Montevista, Nabunturan and New Bataan, Davao de Oro; Asuncion, Carmen, Kapalong, New Corella Island, Garden City of Samal, San Isidro, Santo Tomas and City of Taum, Davao del Norte. Intensity V was reported from Laak, Mabini, Maco, Maragusan and Pantukan, Davao de Oro; Braulio E. Dejali, Davao del Norte; Baganga, Banaybanay, Boston, Cateel and Lupon, Davao Oriental; Santa Josefa, Agusan del Sur. It was felt throughout Mindanao as far as Surigao del Norte, the city of Cotabato, General Santos and Surigao del Sur. Many people panicked due to an unconfirmed tsunami report of an event that did not occur. Damage occurred in Davao where schools were closed and government offices were shut down. While no major damage was reported many shopping malls, universities etc. were evacuated. Power was knocked out in Tagum City, Davao del Norte Province. Local sources said several people were injured in the earthquake which was given M 6.4 initially before being reduced to M 6.0 later.

 

The last earthquake in Mindanao, Philippines with M>=6 within about 150 km  of today's epicenter was an M 6.0 on May 5, 2022. Similar events of M 6.0-6.1 hit the region on April 19-20, 2022. A major earthquake of M 7.1 occurred about 150 km southeast of this epicenter on August 1, 2021. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

"No major damage was reported and the risk of a significant tsunami was considered minimal. A minor tsunami was reported by PTWC with height 0.05 m in Bitung Indonesia and 0.04 m in Davao, Philippines. The last non-deep focus earthquake of M>=7.1 in the region of Mindanao occurred as an M 7.2 on March 5, 2002 but the last of equal or larger magnitude within about 250 km of today's epicenter occurred as an M 7.4 twenty years ago on January 1, 2001 and an M 7.3 and 7.1 on May 17, 1992. Deep focus earthquake hit about 350 km to the east of today's epicenter with M 7.6 on July 23, 2010 and an M 7.1 on February 5, 2005." (August 12, 2021)

 

Forecast 150335 had expected today's event was likely within about 100 km of this epicenter around February 3, 2023. This epicenter is about 400 km north of the M 7.2 Molucca Sea earthquake of January 18, 2023 and may have been promoted by stress redistribution from that event. It is also at 100 degrees from the M 6.4 off Northern California of December 20, 2022 and at the sixth node (60 degrees) from recent major earthquakes in Tonga and Fiji and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.

 

O: 01FEB2023 11:07:37   7.7N  126.2E mb=4.6  EMSC   MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

O:  1FEB2023 10:44:45   7.8N  126.1E Mw=6.0  EMSC   MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES        

P:  3FEB2023 150335     7.0N  126.0E 4.0-5.5 AAAAA  Central Philippines        

 

A moderate earthquake of M 5.0 shook regions of the Dominican Republic today. NEIC reported maximum intensity V in the Dominican Republic at Matanzas, Pizarrete, San Cristobal, IV in Bani, Sabana Buey (VI), Bajos de Haina, El Carril, San Jose de Ocoa and Santo Domingo with lesser shaking throughout most of the Dominican Republic. Local news reported it initially with M 5.3-5.6. It occurred on the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault south of Santo Domingo and was most strongly felt from Barahona to Santo Domingo and Santiago. It was also felt as far as the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, Haiti and Puerto Rico. Widespread panic accompanied the earthquake and some businesses evacuated employees. Structural damage was reported in three schools in the Matanzas area. This included cracks and fallen plaster and ceiling tiles. Classes were suspended for the day. The last earthquake with M>=5.0 in the Dominican Republic and within about 200 km of today's epicenter was an M 5.2 about 200 km northwest of this epicenter on September 23, 2018. The last similar event was an M 5.1 on July 7, 2012 - an aftershock of an M 5.5 on January 5, 2012. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

 

"This is the strongest earthquake in the region of the Dominican Republic since an M 6.4 on September 22, 2003. This is the only strong earthquake in the area in at least 22 years. It may be a precursory quake to the upcoming great quake in the Puerto Rico trench. An earthquake of M 3.9 in the region of Puerto Rico followed several hours after the Dominican Republic earthquake. The only other comparable event in the region in the past 10 years was an M 5.4 about 300 km to the southeast of today's epicenter which occurred on November 13, 2010." (January 6, 2012)

 

Forecast 150395 had expected this event in this area was likely around February 5, 2023. This epicenter is at 142 degrees from the M 7.6 in New Guinea of September 10, 2022 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O:  1FEB2023 11:11:16  18.0N   70.4W Mw=5.0  EMSC   DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION    

P:  5FEB2023 150395    19.0N   71.0W 3.4-5.4 BAAAA  Puerto Rico                

 

 

A light earthquake also shook the San Fernando Valley near Northridge, California today. NEIC reported this earthquake of M 3.1 in San Fernando valley area of Los Angeles, California was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of the San Fernando Valley area of Los Angeles, California in Canyon County, Sylmar, Santa Clarita, Newhall, Valencia, San Fernando, Pasadena, Northridge, Granada Hills, Mission Hills, Pacoima, Porter Ranch, North Hills, Panorama City among other communities. It was felt as far as Los Angeles with intensity IV.  While at a significantly reduced magnitude, this event follows the pattern laid out in this summary following the M 4.2 in Malibu, California on January 25, 2023 and reported in that summary as:

 

"Today's M 4.2 is the strongest earthquake within about 100 km of this epicenter since an M 4.3 on September 18, 2021. The last earthquake in the area of significantly larger magnitude was an M 4.7 on May 18, 2009. The last strong earthquake to occur in this region was the Northridge M 6.7 of January 17, 1994. That event was preceded by several light earthquakes felt in the Los Angeles area of M 3.6 and 3.7 on January 9, 1994 and January 12, 1994 within about 15 km of today's epicenters. This caused some residents of Los Angeles to believe that a stronger event in the region was imminent and to take precautions. An earthquake of M 6.7 also hit the area on February 9, 1971 - the San Fernando earthquake. The period of 30-33 years appears to be the approximate inter-event time for large earthquakes in this region. Since it has been 29 years since the Northridge quake, the area is entering into a period of likely enhanced seismicity. Triggering of today's activity by a strong solar flare suggests that the region is near a breaking point which could be reached in the near future and could be triggered by a strong X-class solar flare.  Today's earthquake occurred at 15 km depth - a depth at which moderate to large earthquakes often occur in this region (the Northridge quake was at 18 km depth) - near the brittle-ductile transition boundary." (January 26, 2023)

 

The seismic watch associated with southern California was cancelled two days ago in this summary because TC Cheneso failed to reach an antipodal point to southern California, dissipating south of Madagascar several days earlier than expected.

 

The last earthquake of M>=3.1 in the region 34-35N 118-119W (the San Fernando Valley west of Los Angeles) was an M 3.2 on February 14, 2022. An M 4.2 also hit this area on July 30, 2020 and was reported in this summary as:

 

 

"A series of light to moderate earthquakes shook the valleys west of Los Angeles, California today. The largest of these was an M 4.2 near San Fernando. … An M 4.1 off the coast of northern California occurred minutes before the Los Angeles activity. It was possibly felt on the coast of Northern California with light intensity. This is the strongest earthquake in the San Fernando Valley, California area since an M 4.2-4.3 on January 4, 2015. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

"The last earthquake of similar or larger magnitude within 50 km of this epicenter in the Los Angeles area occurred as an M 4.4 on March 17, 2014 and as an M 4.3 on September 1, 2011. A foreshock to the south occurred on December 30, 2014 and was followed several hours later by a foreshock of M 3.1 at today's epicenter. A similar sequence preceded the 1994 Northridge earthquake." (January 4, 2015, July 31, 2020)

 

More recent earthquakes of M 3.6 (January 8, 2022); M 3.6 (October 24, 2021) and M 4.5 (September 19, 2020) occurred in the western greater Los Angeles region but were not in the San Fernando Valley area.

 

Forecast 150457 had expected today's M 3.1 was likely within about 25 km  around February 2, 2023.

 

O:  2FEB2023 00:11:01  34.3N  118.4W ML=3.1  EMSC   GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALI

P:  2FEB2023 150457    34.4N  118.6W 2.5-4.6 AAAAA  So. California             

 

 

 

A light earthquake also occurred in Southern California today east of Los Angeles. This M 3.3 is the strongest within about 100 km of this epicenter since the M 4.2 of December 31, 2022. It occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses at this hour. NEIC reported today's event was felt with maximum intensity IV in California at Desert Hot Springs, Indio, Palm Desert, Cathedral City, Rancho Mirage, Indian Wells, La Quinta among other communities. Forecasts 150456 and 150185 had expected this event within about 25 km was likely at the end or January or in early February, 2023.

 

O: 01FEB2023 09:19:23  33.9N  116.3W Ml=2.0  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 02FEB2023 03:39:59  34.1N  116.4W Ml=2.1  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O:  1FEB2023 09:05:01  33.9N  116.3W ML=3.1  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA          

O:  1FEB2023 09:05:01  33.9N  116.3W ML=3.3  ANSS   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA          

P: 28JAN2023 150185    33.7N  116.1W 2.5-4.6 BAAAA  So. California             

 

ANOTHER QUIET DAY IN GLOBAL SEISMICITY

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 31, 2023

 

It was another quiet day in global seismicity. This follows a similar quiet period yesterday which was discussed in the previous issue of this summary as:

 

 

"It was a quiet day in the life of the earth today. ...  The lack of significant tidal, solar, geomagnetic or tropical storm activity at this time probably contributed to this quiet period in seismicity. The current lull is expected to continue for several more days with a break to more active conditions possible with a return of active solar activity around February 2, 2023.

 

The largest earthquakes in the world today were four of M 5.0 - one in the region of Mindanao, Philippines and three in the southwest Pacific in the Solomon Islands, Tonga and south of Fiji. None of these are unusual and all had been expected in forecasts in this summary.

 

O:  1FEB2023 00:21:59   9.6S  159.8E mb=5.0  EMSC   SOLOMON ISLANDS              

P: 27JAN2023 150094     6.0S  155.0E 4.0-5.4 BCCAA  Solomon Islands            

 

NEIC reported this earthquake of M 5.0 in the Solomon Islands was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of the Solomon Islands in Honiara, Guadalcanal.

 

O: 31JAN2023 19:02:13  15.9S  173.3W mb=5.0  EMSC   TONGA                         

P:  7FEB2023 150559    15.0S  175.0W 4.0-5.5 CABAA  Samoa Islands              

 

O: 31JAN2023 16:49:46  23.7S  179.7W mb=5.0  EMSC   SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS        

P: 26JAN2023 150307    24.0S  180.0W 4.0-5.4 BAAAA  Tonga Islands               

 

O: 31JAN2023 20:04:35   9.1N  127.2E mb=5.0  EMSC   PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION    

P: 27JAN2023 150112    11.0N  126.0E 3.5-5.1 BBAAA  Luzon, Philippines         

 

Two earthquakes of M 4.7-4.8 occurred today on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. An M 4.8  in the Central Mid-Atlantic (no felt) was the strongest within about 200 km  of that epicenter in more than a year - since an M 4.8 on January 11, 2022 and an M 4.9 on February 6, 2019. This event occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by  high tidal stresses. Forecast 150333 had expected this event within about 50 km was likely around February 2. This epicenter is nearly antipodal to the M 7.6 in New Guinea of September 10, 2022 and like the M 4.7 to the north at 144 degrees from  recent major earthquakes in Tonga and Fiji  and may have been promoted by focused energy from that source.

 

O:  1FEB2023 03:14:17   2.6N   30.8W mb=4.8  EMSC   CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE   

P:  2FEB2023 150333     3.0N   31.0W 4.0-6.0 AAAAA  Central Mid-Atlantic Ridg  

 

The M 4.7 in the Northern Mid-Atlantic (also not felt) was the largest within  about 200 km of today's epicenter since an M 5.2 on January 2, 2023 and an M 4.8 on August 25, 2022. Forecasts 150406 and 150177 had expected enhanced seismicity in this area was likely at the end of January or early February.

  

O: 31JAN2023 14:48:11  29.8N   42.1W mb=4.7  EMSC   NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE  

P:  2FEB2023 150406    27.0N   44.0W 4.0-5.5 ACBAA  Mid-Atlantic Ridge         

P: 23JAN2023 150177    31.0N   41.0W 4.0-5.5 CBAAA  No. Mid-Atlantic Ridge     

 

An M 4.4 occurred in the region of Cuba today. It was not reported felt in this area. It is the largest event within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 4.7 on June 29, 2021. Forecast 150102 had expected enhanced seismicity in this area was likely around January 28.

 

O:  1FEB2023 07:26:07  19.4N   79.0W mb=4.4  EMSC   CUBA REGION                  

P: 28JAN2023 150102    19.0N   81.0W 3.5-5.1 BABAA  Caribbean Sea              

 

The strongest earthquake in California today was an M 2.7 in the Mammoth Lakes area near the California border. NEIC reported it was lightly felt in the epicentral area. This event may have been promoted by focused energy from Tropical Cyclone Cheneso which had remnants near the antipode in the area south of Madagascar when the M 2.7 occurred in the Mammoth Lakes area of California. This possibility had been proposed in previous issues of this summary as:

 

"TC Cheneso (08S) continued today in the area west of Northern Madagascar with winds up to 65 kts.  Focused antipodal energy from this storm could lead to enhanced seismicity in Southern California at that time. The closest approach to antipodal in California will occur in Central California around 37N 118W - the Mammoth Lakes area which could also see enhanced seismicity near January 31." (January 27-29, 2023) This storm has caused considerable flooding and damage and loss of life in Madagascar as it moves slowly through the area.

 

This warning was later cancelled when TC Cheneso failed to reach a position  antipodal to southern California.

 

Today's event of M 2.7 was the strongest in the Mammoth Lakes, California area since an M 3.1 on January 2, 2023 and an M 3.9 on December 2, 2022.   Forecast 150419 had expected today's event within about 25 km was likely in early February.

 

O: 31JAN2023 21:41:15  37.5N  118.8W Md=2.7  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA           

P:  4FEB2023 150419    37.5N  118.5W 2.5-5.0 BAAAA  California/Nevada area     

P:  1FEB2023 150419    37.3N  119.4W 2.5-4.4 AAAAA  California/Nevada area     

 

The area of southern California has been relatively quiet during the month of

January, 2023. The only significant activity in this area in the past month was the M 4.2 and an aftershock of M 3.6 in the Santa Monica area south of Los Angeles on January 25 which in part led to a forecast of enhanced seismicity in  southern California around January 31 in this summary. The last event of M>=3.3 other than that in southern California was an M 4.2 on December 31, 2022. The epicenter of that event was near Borrego Springs, California.

 

A light earthquake occurred in Southern California as this summary was in preparation. This M 3.3 is the strongest within about 100 km of this epicenter since the M 4.2 of December 31, 2022. It occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses at this hour. NEIC reported today's event was felt with maximum intensity IV in California at Desert Hot Springs, Indio, Palm Desert, Cathedral City, Rancho Mirage, Indian Wells, La Quinta among other communities. Forecasts 150456 and 150185 had expected this event within about 25 km was likely at the end or January or in early February, 2023.

 

 

O: 31JAN2023 22:19:25  33.9N  116.3W Ml=2.1  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 31JAN2023 12:56:20  33.3N  116.8W Ml=2.2  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA          

O:  1FEB2023 09:05:02  33.9N  116.3W Ml=3.3  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA          

O:  1FEB2023 09:05:02  33.9N  116.3W Ml=3.3  ANSS   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA           

P:  7FEB2023 150456    33.4N  116.7W 2.5-4.7 CAAAA  So. California             

P: 28JAN2023 150185    33.7N  116.1W 2.5-4.6 CAAAA  So. California             

 

A light earthquake of M 2.6 occurred today in the Gulf of Maine. Similar events of M>=2.6 have occurred on three other occasions in the past 35 years - all with M 2.6 on June 9, 2016, February 10, 2021 and April 16, 2022. No earthquakes of greater magnitude in the Gulf of Maine have occurred in this time period. Forecast 150490 had expected enhanced seismicity in this region in early February. This epicenter is at 142 degrees from the M 7.6 in the Banda Sea of January 9, 2023 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 31JAN2023 02:22:17  43.0N   66,6W ML=2.6  ANSS   GULF OF MAINE                

O: 31JAN2023 12:10:28  43.1N   67.4W ML=2.6  EMSC   GULF OF MAINE                

P:  8FEB2023 150490    44.4N   68.2W 2.0-4.3 CBAAA  Maine                      

 

A study claiming that the core of the earth has stopped rotating with the rest of the planet is being widely circulated on the internet. Some claim there would be no obvious effects to such a situation. This is nonsense. A few of the effects include the following. 1) There is considerable topography between layers in the earth. If one layer should stop rotating while the adjoining layer kept rotating as usual, friction would occur along the interface. This friction would wear down the topography and diminish other forms of energy (such as motion). 2) Most of the geomagnetic field is thought to be generated by currents of liquid material in the inner portions of the earth. Friction at the interfaces would change this fluid motion. This, in turn, would reduce or enhance the strength of the earth's inherent geomagnetic field. This appears to be happening as the strength of this field has halved in the past 100 years and is continuing to lessen. This has led some to speculate that the earth is in the middle of a geomagnetic reversal. 3) A lessening of the geomagnetic field strength would allow solar (and flare) activity a larger portion of the overall magnetic field of the earth. Part of this would include a lowering of the ionosphere by tens of kilometers. This has also been observed over the past decades. 4) Lowering the ionosphere would allow major enhancement in the telluric induction electrical currents from ionospheric currents. This would bring more frequent moderate earthquakes caused by Solar Flare Effects (SFE) in areas where these effects are prominent and perhaps more dependence of seismicity on solar effects. 5) If one layer of the earth rotates at a different speed than an adjacent section, slippage at the interface of these two sections may be possible. One of the theories that tries to explain sudden climate shifts (for example the existence of mammoths in Siberia with tropical plants in their mouths after being flash frozen) is that the crust of the earth occasionally slips on the mantle. If observed, the rotation discontinuity between layers of the earth  would give this theory more credence. In short these and many effects unmentioned here suggest that non-rotation of the core of the earth could have major effects on the rest of the planet.

 

 

MODERATE QUAKES CONTINUE NEAR MALTA

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 30, 2023

 

It was a quiet day in the life of the earth today. Two events of M>=5 occurred - an M 5.3 near Malta and an M 5.3 in Kashmir, India and Xinjiang, China. The lack of significant tidal, solar, geomagnetic or tropical storm activity at this time probably contributed to this quiet period in seismicity. The current lull is expected to continue for several more days with a break to more active conditions possible with a return of active solar activity around February 2, 2023.

 

Moderate earthquakes continued in the area of Malta in the Central Mediterranean today. These events were reported by NEIC to have been felt with intensity IV in Malta at Mellieha and III in Gharghur and Sliema, Inner Harbour. The largest of these - an M 5.3 (also the largest in the world today) was felt with maximum intensity V in Malta at Rabat; IV ikn Birzebugia, Gudja, Zebbbug, Fgura, Luqa and III i Safi, Zejtun, Tarxien and Marsa. Forecasts 150170 and 150435 had expected enhanced seismicity within about 50 km of these epicenters was likely towards the end of January or early February, 2023.

 

O: 31JAN2023 00:43:16  34.9N   14.1E mb=4.6  EMSC   CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN SEA

O: 30JAN2023 19:55:27  34.9N   14.3E mb=5.2  EMSC   CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN SEA    

O: 30JAN2023 19:55:27  34.9N   14.3E mb=5.3  ANSS   CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN SEA    

P:  1FEB2023 150435    35.0N   14.0E 3.0-4.8 AAAAA  Mediterranean/Sicily       

P: 22JAN2023 150170    35.0N   14.0E 3.0-4.6 CAAAA  Mediterranean/Sicily       

 

The earthquake of M 5.3 in Kashmir, India and Xinjiang, China was the largest within about 250 km of this epicenter since an M 5.4 on October 20, 2013. A strong earthquake of M 6.3 occurred about 250 km east of this on June 25, 2020 and an M 6.4 hit about 250 km northwest of this epicenter on July 3, 2015 -  the last events of M>=5.3 in this area.  Forecasts 150445 and 150178 had expected enhanced seismicity in this area was likely in early February within this area.

 

O: 30JAN2023 17:07:45  35.8N   79.9E mb=5.3  EMSC   KASHMIR-XINJIANG BORDER REGION

P:  9FEB2023 150445    35.0N   78.0E 3.8-5.2 CAAAA  Northern India             

P: 30JAN2023 150178    39.0N   78.0E 3.8-5.2 ACAAA  Northern India             

 

The strongest earthquake felt in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.1 north of Yellowstone National Park in Montana. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II-III in Montana at Livingston, Bozeman, Wilsall, Belgrade, McLeod, Pray and Big Timber. The last earthquake in western Montana within about 100 km of today's epicenter to reach M 4.1 or larger was an M 4.2 on August 16, 2019. The only event in the area of significantly larger magnitude in the past 35 years was an M 4.4 on May 8, 2007. Today's event occurred within minutes of local solar noon and may have been promoted by high tidal stresses.  Forecast 150241 had expected today's earthquake to the south at the end of January, 2023. This epicenter is located at 103 degrees from the M 7.6 in New Guinea of September 10, 2022 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 30JAN2023 19:28:52  45.8N  110.6W ML=4.1  EMSC   WESTERN MONTANA              

P: 26JAN2023 150241    44.6N  110.8W 2.0-4.4 BBAAA  Yellowstone/Wyoming        

P: 30JAN2023 150241    44.2N  110.3W 2.0-4.3 ABAAA  Yellowstone/Wyoming        

 

An M 4.5 also occurred in the Southern Yukon Territory, Canada. This was the strongest quake in the U.S. or Canada but it was not reported felt. The last earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter with M>=4.5 was an M 4.5 about 150 km southwest of this epicenter on January 11, 2022. An M 4.9 on May 9, 2021 was the last such event within about 100 km of today's epicenter.  Forecasts 150267 and 150539 had expected this activity was likely at the end of January or early February within about 50 km of this epicenter.

 

 

O: 30JAN2023 09:02:46  61.5N  140.7W mb=4.5  EMSC   SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY, CANA

P:  1FEB2023 150539    61.3N  140.1W 3.2-5.0 AAAAA  Central Alaska             

P: 27JAN2023 150267    60.0N  139.0W 3.2-5.0 BBAAA  Central Alaska             

 

An earthquake of M 4.5 also continued elevated seismicity in British Columbia, Canada today. When a similar earthquake hit this region on January 27, this summary noted:

 

"The largest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 3.9-4.4 in the Prince George, British Columbia area of Canada. This follows enhanced seismicity over the past two days in the region of Alberta, Canada as described in the previous issue of this summary:

 

"Two earthquakes of M 3.9 hit the area of Alberta, Canada on January 25. These events were at different epicenters about 250 km apart. They are at 102-103 degrees from the M 7.2 in Molucca Sea of January 18 and were probably promoted by energy from that source. The last earthquake of M>=3.9 in Alberta was an M 4.5 on December 1, 2022 near one of today's epicenters. Forecast 149972 had expected activity in these areas in mid-January." (January 26, 2023)

 

This is an unusual epicenter. The last earthquake of M>=3.9 within about 150 km of this epicenter occurred more than 35 years ago. Earthquakes of M>=3 have hit the area within about 200 km as an M 3.2 on September 21, 2022, an M 3.4 on March 14, 2013 and an M 3.0 on February 9, 1993.  Forecast 149972 had expected today's event within about 100 km was likely in mid-January. This epicenter is at 106 degrees from the M 7.6 in Banda Sea of January 9, 2023 and may have been promoted by energy from that source." (January 28, 2023)

 

Today's event occurred near local solar noon and may have been promoted by tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. Forecast 150549 had expected today's even within about 15 km was likely in early February, 2023.

 

O: 30JAN2023 19:28:36  57.1N  122.3W ML=4.5  EMSC   BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA     

P:  6FEB2023 150549    57.1N  122.2W 2.5-3.9 CAAAA  Northwest Terr., Canada    

 

The strongest earthquakes in the region of California today were relatively light events of M 2.2. Two of these were worthy of note. An M 2.2 in the region of Santa Barbara Channel and an M 2.2 in the San Francisco Bay area.

 

The last earthquake of M>=2.2 in the region of Santa Barbara, California with equal or larger magnitude was an M 2.7 on July 9, 2022 with M 2.7. The strongest earthquake in the past 2.5 years was an M 3.4 on May 26, 2021.   Forecast 150189 had expected enhanced seismicity in this region at the end of January. Part of this forecast was based on the possible antipodal position in this area of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso south of Madagascar. This storm however dissipated yesterday before reaching a position antipodal to Southern California. Today's epicenters in the Santa Barbara Channel and south of San Francisco are within about 200 km of the antipode of the last stated position of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso.  The seismic watch for this area has therefore been cancelled as noted in this summary:

 

"TC Cheneso (08S) continued today in the area west of Southern Madagascar with winds up to 30 kts. It is expected to dissipate over the next day. No further threat to regional seismicity is expected with this storm. The antipodal areas of Central and southern California may be slightly affected but no moderate quakes in this area are likely at this time." (January 27-30, 2023)

 

The epicenter referred above near Mammoth Lakes on the border with Nevada could still see a light earthquake in the next several days. But a moderate quake in this area seems unlikely at this time.

 

O: 30JAN2023 12:55:57  34.2N  119.5W Ml=2.2  EMSC   SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, CALIF.

P: 29JAN2023 150189    34.9N  119.0W 2.5-4.6 AAAAA  So. California             

 

The M 2.2 in the San Francisco, California area today continues elevated activity in this area over the past week. Today's event occurred near local solar noon and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses at this hour. Forecast 150159 had expected this event within about 10 km was likely around January 28.

 

O: 30JAN2023 18:49:31  37.3N  121.7W Md=2.2  EMSC   NORTHERN CALIFORNIA          

P: 28JAN2023 150159    37.3N  121.6W 2.5-4.7 AAAAA  Central California         

 

An earthquake of M 4.8 occurred south of Australia in the western Indian-Antarctic ridge area today where it was not reported felt. The only earthquake with M>=4.8 in the past 2.5 years within about 200 km of this epicenter was an M 5.0 on March 18, 2022. Forecast 150325 had expected today's event within about 50 k was likely at the end of January, 2023. The potential seismicity map for the next week (see below) had identified this location as a possible significant event at this time. This epicenter is at 104 degrees from the M 6.8 in Argentina of January 20, 2023 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 31JAN2023 03:09:56  48.9S  121.4E mb=4.8  EMSC   WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

P: 22JAN2023 150325    49.0S  122.0E 4.0-5.8 CAAAA  So. of Australia           

 

 

 

STRONG QUAKE SHAKES SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA; RARE QUAKE NEAR MOZAMBIQUE

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 29, 2023

 

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.7 in Southern Xinjiang, China. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Kuche and Aksu. The only earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter with M>=5.7 in the past 35 years was an M 5.8-5.9 on March 8, 2012. At the time this summary noted:

 

"A strong earthquake of M 5.8-6.1 hit the area of southern Xinjiang, China today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity VI in Aksu, Xinjiang, China.

The epicenter is in the Taklimakan Desert region northeast of Hotan and there were no immediate reports of damage or injuries. The earthquake was felt strongly in Hotan and officials are expecting damage reports from the prefectures of Aksu, Kashi, Hotan, Baya Fol and Ili. The quakes was felt in each of these regions according to Xinhua. Reports from this area are often delayed and some damage may have occurred which will be reported at a later time. The epicenter is near the border with Kyrgyzstan." (March 9, 2012)

 

A moderately strong earthquake occurred on January 28 to the west of this in

northern Iran and eastern Turkey with M 5.9. It may have helped promote seismicity in this region of Xinjiang, China. Forecast 150212 had expected today's event in Xinjiang was likely within about 100 km around January 27.

 

O: 29JAN2023 23:49:39  40.0N   82.4E Mw=5.8  EMSC   SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA     

P: 27JAN2023 150212    41.0N   82.0E 4.0-5.4 AAAAA  Kirgizstan/Xinjiang        

 

An unusual earthquake of M 4.8 occurred today in the southern Mozambique Channel southeast of Madagascar. It hit near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by tidal stresses at their maximum. It occurred near the longitude of maximum tidal stress with the new moon of January 21 as noted in previous issues of this summary:

 

 

"The new moon will arrive on January 21, 2023 at 20:53 UT. Longitudes which are at sub-solar conditions (local solar noon) at this time are near 135 West while those at local solar midnight are near 45 East longitude. In the west these include most of the coastline of North America from Alaska to California and portions of the East Pacific Rise while in the east the areas of Iran, Eastern Turkey, eastern Africa, and central Asia are included. These are the regions most likely to see substantial tidal triggering in the next week. Other areas may also see triggering with this new moon tidal alignment especially areas where SFE is also active. Tidally triggered events are most likely to occur new local solar midnight or noon. This is a super-moon that is the closest to the earth of any approach since the year 1030 with the next such approach 353 years from now. Tides are related to the third power of the distance, so even a small reduction in distance and have a considerable effect on tidal stress and subsequent tidally related seismicity. Likelihood of a strong to major tidally promoted earthquake in the next week are considered moderate to high." (January 18-22, 2023)

 

Today's event also appears to have been triggered by stress from Tropical Cyclone Cheneso which passed over this epicenter yesterday. This summary had anticipated this in previous issues as:

 

"TC Cheneso (08S) continued today in the area west of Southern Madagascar with winds up to 75 kts. It is expected to track to the south over the next several days. Some triggering of seismicity in East Africa may occur with this storm. This system will be at 34S 60E on January 31 with winds up to 65 kts. This is antipodal to southern California and Los Angeles where moderate earthquakes occurred on January 25. Focused antipodal energy from this storm could lead to enhanced seismicity in Southern California at that time. The closest approach to antipodal in California will occur in Central California around 37N 118W - the Mammoth Lakes area which could also see enhanced seismicity near January 31. This storm has caused considerable flooding and damage and loss of life in Madagascar as it moves slowly through the area." (January 28-29, 2023)

 

Today's event is the strongest within about 300 km in the Mozambique Channel in at least 35 years. The last event of M>=4 in this area was an M 4.0 on September 1, 2012 and prior to that an M 4.4 on June 26, 2008. Forecasts 150032 and 150303 had expected today's activity to the west was likely in late January, 2023.

 

O: 29JAN2023 22:42:52  22.9S   38.3E mb=4.8  EMSC   MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL           

P: 20JAN2023 150032    22.0S   33.0E 4.0-5.4 CACAA  So. Indian Ocean            

P: 22JAN2023 150303    21.0S   33.0E 4.0-5.8 CBCAA  So. Indian Ocean           

 

An M 4.3 occurred today in the Dominican Republic. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity VII in Arenoso, Duarte and IV in Villa Riva, Don Juan and II-III in Nagua Trinidad, Castillo, La Pena, Las Terrenas, Cabrert, Samana and Santo Domingo. This continues enhanced seismicity in this area which has been occurring in the past several weeks. Forecast 150129 had expected today's event within about 100 km was likely at the end of January.

 

O: 29JAN2023 18:56:08  19.0N   70.1W ML=3.0  EMSC   DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

O: 29JAN2023 18:32:34  19.3N   69.9W mb=4.3  EMSC   DOMINICAN REPUBLIC           

P: 26JAN2023 150129    20.0N   71.0W 3.0-4.4 BAAAA  Bahamas/No. Caribbean      

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 3.9 in the Fox Islands, Aleutians, Alaska. It was not reported felt in this remote area. The last earthquake with M>=3.9 within about 100 km of this epicenter was an  M 4.8 on January 22, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.8 in the western Fox Islands, Aleutians, Alaska. It was not reported felt in this remote area. This event occurred with the new moon and was likely promoted by energy related to this source. It is the largest earthquake in the Fox Islands since an M 4.9 on December 5, 2022 These are probably regional aftershocks of an M 5.5 of November 21, 2022 which also occurred with the new moon. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.5 in the Fox  Islands, Aleutians. Like the events in the Solomon Islands, this epicenter is located near the longitude of maximum tidal stress with the new moon (see above).

 

...

 

The last earthquake in the Fox Islands within about 200 km of today's epicenter was an M 6.6 and 6.8  on January 11, 2022." (November 22, 2022)

 

Forecast 150251 had expected today's event in the Fox Islands was likely in late

January, 2023. It is located at the third node (120 degrees) from the M 6.8 in Argentina of January 18, 2023 and may have been promoted by energy from that source." (January 22, 2023)

 

Forecast 150251 had expected today's event was likely within about 50 km of this epicenter around January 29, 2023.

 

O: 29JAN2023 22:36:41  52.7N  169.7W mb=3.9  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

P: 29JAN2023 150251    52.4N  169.4W 3.5-4.9 AAAAA  Fox Islands, Aleutians     

 

An M 2.2 was lightly felt in the area of the San Francisco Bay today. NEIC reported it was felt lightly with intensity II-III in San Ramon and Oakland, California. This event occurred within minutes of local solar noon and may have been promoted by tidal stresses which maximize near this hour, an indication of high regional stress. Forecast 150159 had expected today's event within about 50 km was likely around January 29.

 

O: 29JAN2023 19:52:07  37.9N  122.0W Md=2.2  EMSC   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.

P: 23JAN2023 150159    37.8N  122.6W 2.5-5.2 CAAAA  Central California         

P: 28JAN2023 150159    37.3N  121.6W 2.5-4.7 AAAAA  Central California         

 

 

STRONG EARTHQUAKE DEADLY IN AZERBAIJAN, TURKEY-IRAN

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 28, 2023

 

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was a strong M 5.9 near the Turkey-Iran border in the area of Azerbaijan. NEIC reported it was felt with damage with intensity VIII in Azerbaijan, Iran in Khoi, Dilman; V in Tebriz, IV inOrumiyeh, Ardakan, Yaed, Chalus, Mazandaran and II in Merand with intensity IV in Yerevan, Armenia. Iranian state media reported some homes were destroyed and that the "amount of destruction of some houses and buildings in the city of Khoy city is relative high". News reported at least 300 injured including 122 in the city of Khoy - a toll which included three deaths. Emergency teams were dispatched to the area which was in the midst of a strong winter storm with sub-zero temperatures and power outages at the time of the earthquake.  This event appears to continue enhanced seismicity with strong tidal stresses associated with the new moon of January 21 as it occurred near the longitude of maximum tidal stress with that alignment as defined in previous issues of this summary:

 

 

"The new moon arrived on January 21, 2023 at 20:53 UT. Longitudes which were at sub-solar conditions (local solar noon) at this time are near 135 West while those at local solar midnight are near 45 East longitude. In the west these include most of the coastline of North America from Alaska to California and portions of the East Pacific Rise while in the east the areas of Iran, Eastern Turkey, eastern Africa, and central Asia are included. These are the regions most likely to see substantial tidal triggering in the next week. Other areas may also see triggering with this new moon tidal alignment especially areas where SFE is also active. Tidally triggered events are most likely to occur new local solar midnight or noon. This is a super-moon that is the closest to the earth of any approach since the year 1030 with the next such approach 353 years from now. Tides are related to the third power of the distance, so even a small reduction in distance and have a considerable effect on tidal stress and subsequent tidally related seismicity. Likelihood of a strong to major tidally promoted earthquake in the next week are considered moderate to high." (January 18-26, 2023)

 

The last earthquake of M 5.9 within about 200 km of today's mainshock was an  M 6.0 on February 23, 2020. The only other event of M>=5.9 in this region in the past 35 years was an M 7.1 on October 23, 2011. At the time of the M 6.0 in February, 2020 this summary noted: 

 

"This area of Turkey-Iran border first became active on February 16, 2020 with an M 4.8 foreshock. The last earthquake within about 200 km of today's M 6.0 with equal or larger magnitude occurred on August 11, 2012 with M 6.3 and 6.4 about 200 km east of today's epicenter. The only other such event in the region in the past 30 years was an M 7.1-7.3 on October 23, 2011. Forecast 122219 had expected today's activity was likely around February 24. Today's activity is at 102-103 degrees from both the M 7.1 in Central California of July 6, 2019 ..." (February 24, 2020)

 

Forecasts 150198 and 150206 had expected today's activity was likely within this area in late January, 2023. This activity is at 143-144 degrees from the major earthquakes of November and December, 2022 in the Tonga-Fiji region and at the  third node (120 degrees) from the M 6.8 in Argentina of January 20, 2023 and the M 7.6 in Michoacan, Mexico of September 19, 2022 and at 103 degrees from the M 7.6 in New Guinea of September 10, 2022 and at 101 degrees from the M 6.4 in northern California of December 20, 2022 and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.

 

O: 28JAN2023 18:14:47  38.5N   44.9E Mw=5.9  EMSC   TURKEY-IRAN BORDER REGION    

O: 28JAN2023 20:10:07  39.1N   45.0E mb=4.5  EMSC   TURKEY-IRAN BORDER REGION    

O: 29JAN2023 03:48:09  38.5N   44.9E mb=4.1  EMSC   TURKEY-IRAN BORDER REGION

P: 22JAN2023 150198    39.0N   43.0E 3.5-5.0 CABAA  Turkey                     

P: 22JAN2023 150206    40.0N   44.0E 3.5-4.9 CAAAA  Caucasus/Caspian Sea       

 

Another moderate earthquake at 45 East longitude occurred far to the south of the M 5.9 in Central Iran today. Other activity near this longitude included an M 5.2 in the South Indian Ocean. Forecast 150192 had expected this activity within about 50 km was likely around January 26.

 

O: 28JAN2023 13:53:10  33.6N   45.8E mb=4.5  EMSC   IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION      

P: 26JAN2023 150192    33.0N   46.0E 3.8-5.6 AAAAA  So. Iran                   

 

The earthquake in the Southwest Indian Ridge is southeast of the current location of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso southeast of Madagascar. It may also  have been promoted by energy associated with that storm (See below for further details. This area is nearly antipodal to southern and Central California - areas which may see enhanced seismicity towards the end of January. Today's event is the strongest within about 250 km since an M 5.4 on December 25, 2021. The last event in the area of significantly larger magnitude was an M 5.8 on August 18, 2020 and an M 6.1 on September 24, 2019.  Forecast 150316 had expected enhanced seismicity within about 50 km of this epicenter the South Indian Ridge was likely around January 25, 2023. Today's event occurred near local solar noon and may have been enhanced by tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. This event is near the antipode of the M 6.4 in Northern California of December 20, 2022 and at 105 degrees from the recent major events in Tonga and Fiji and may have been promoted by focused energy from those sources.

 

O: 28JAN2023 09:13:24  34.9S   54.4E mb=5.2  EMSC   SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE       

P: 25JAN2023 150316    35.0S   55.0E 4.0-6.0 BAAAA  So. Indian Ocean           

 

The strongest earthquake felt in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 3.7 off the coast of Northern California. NEIC reported it was felt in northern California with intensity II-III in Ferndale, Loleta, Rio Dell, Fortuna, Hydesville, Petrolia, Eureka, Scotia, Samoa. The is the strongest aftershock of the M 6.4 in Northern California of December 20, 2022 since an M 4.1 on January 11 and an M 5.4 on January 1, 2023, the only such earthquakes in the area in the past month.  Forecast 150226 had expected this event was likely within about 50 km around January 28.

 

O: 28JAN2023 23:56:58  40.5N  124.4W Mw=3.7  EMSC   OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 

P: 28JAN2023 150226    40.2N  124.2W 2.5-4.8 AAAAA  Off Coast of No. Calif     

 

An M 3.7 was also felt in the area of Nevada near the border with California today. NEIC reported it may have been felt with intensity II in Nevada at Fallon and Glenbrook. The last earthquake in Nevada within about 50 km of this epicenter with M>=3.7 occurred on August 30, 2022 with M 3.9. The last of significantly larger magnitude occurred nearly a year ago as an M 4.7 on February 15, 2022. Today's activity may have been promoted by the antipodal cyclone Cheneso. This summary had previously suggested this possibility as:

 

"TC Cheneso (08S) continued today in the area west of Southern Madagascar with winds up to 75 kts. It is expected to track to the south over the next several days. Some triggering of seismicity in East Africa may occur with this storm. This system will be at 34S 60E on January 31 with winds up to 65 kts. This is antipodal to southern California and Los Angeles where moderate earthquakes occurred on January 25. Focused antipodal energy from this storm could lead to enhanced seismicity in Southern California at that time. The closest approach to antipodal in California will occur in Central California around 37N 118W - the Mammoth Lakes area which could also see enhanced seismicity near January 31. This storm has caused considerable flooding and damage and loss of life in Madagascar as it moves slowly through the area." (January 27-28, 2023)

 

Forecast 150154 had expected today's activity in this area was likely around January 24.

 

O: 28JAN2023 17:16:14  38.2N  117.8W ML=3.3  EMSC   NEVADA                       

O: 28JAN2023 17:16:15  38.2N  117.8W ML=3.8  ANSS   NEVADA                       

P: 24JAN2023 150154    37.8N  118.2W 2.5-4.8 BAAAA  California/Nevada area     

 

NEIC also reported an M 4.0 in the Vancouver Island region of Canada may have been felt with intensity I-III in Nanaimo, British Columbia and in northern Washington, but these may be misinterpretations. The last earthquake in the Vancouver Island area within about 100 km of this epicenter with M>=4 was an M 4.9 on November 26, 2022. Forecast 150239 had expected today's event within about 50 km was likely around January 29, 2023.

 

O: 28JAN2023 16:10:51  49.0N  128.6W mb=4.0  EMSC   VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGIO

P: 29JAN2023 150239    48.9N  129.3W 2.8-5.2 AAAAA  Vancouver Island area      

 

 

 

 

MODERATE QUAKE SHAKES LEYTE, PHILIPPINES

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 27, 2023

 

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.4 in Leyte, Philippines. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in the Eastern Visayas in Sogod, Pawing and III in MacArthur, Tabunok, Ichon, Dolores, Cebu and Calero and in Brsilisa, Caraga, Philippines. PHIVOLCS reported this earthquake was felt with intensity V in Guiuan and Mercedes, Eastern Samar and IV in General Macarthur, Lawaan, Quinapondan, and Salcedo, Eastern Samar, Abuyog, Alangalang, City of Babay, Dulag, Inopacan, Javier, La Paz, Mayorga, Palo, Santa Fe, Tabontabon, Tanauan and Tolosa, Leyte; City of Tacloban; Anahawan, Hinunagan, Saint Bernard, San Francisoc and San Juan, Southern Leyte; Libho, Loreto and San Jose, Dinagat Islands. Intensity II-III was also felt in Leyte, Samar, Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte, Philippines. A similar earthquake of M 5.4 hit the area on October 24, 2022 but the last event of significantly larger magnitude within about 150 km of today's epicenter was an M 6.4 on April 23, 2019. Forecast 150112 had expected today's event within about 50 km was likely around January 27, 2023.

 

O: 27JAN2023 20:25:28  10.7N  125.5E Mw=5.4  EMSC   LEYTE, PHILIPPINES           

P: 27JAN2023 150112    11.0N  126.0E 3.5-5.1 AAAAA  Luzon, Philippines         

 

A moderate earthquake of M 4.6 also occurred today in the U.S. Virgin Islands. NEIC reported it was felt in this area with intensity II-III in Saint Hohn, Saint Thomas and Frederiksted and in the British Virgin Islands at Road Town Tortola. An M 4.7 hit the Virgin Islands about 100 km west of this epicenter on January 8, 2023. At the time this summary noted :

 

 

"An M 4.3-4.7 earthquake shook the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II-III in Saint Thomas, Virgin Islands and in Puerto Rico at Culebra, Fajardo, Luquillo, Ceiba, Rio Grande, Carolina, San Juan. The last earthquake in the Virgin Islands with M>=4.7 was an M 5.5 on May 8, 2022. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

"A moderately strong M 4.9-5.5 shook the U.S. Virgin Islands today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in the U.S. Virgin Islands at Saint John and Saint Thomas and in Tortola, British Virgin Islands. Intensity III was also felt in Culebra, Vieques, Fajard, Celca, Puerto Rico and in the U. S. Virgin Islands at Christiansted, Frederiksted. The last earthquake in the Virgin Islands within about 150 km of this epicenter with equal or greater magnitude was an M 6.1 on October 11, 2008.

 

"The Virgin Islands is also a region which often shows strong triggering due to geomagnetic effect and this earthquake was likely triggered by the geomagnetic storm. The timing of the maximum effects of this geomagnetic storm is such as to coincide with the period of greatest danger of large earthquakes ...

 

The earthquake in the Virgin Islands of M 6.1 today was reported by NEIC to have been felt with maximum intensity V in Puerto Rico at Naranjito, ... It was the most widely reported earthquake (by NEIC) in the region of Puerto Rico in at least the last 10 years and the second most widely felt in the area in that time period after an M 7.3 on November 29, 2007 that occurred south of this in Dominica." (October 12, 2008, May 8, 2022, January 8, 2023).

 

Forecast 150111 had expected today's earthquake within about 100 km was likely around January 28, 2023. This activity is at 142 degrees from the M 7.6 in the Banda Sea of January 9 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 27JAN2023 11:06:52  18.9N   64.3W mb=4.5  EMSC   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION        

O: 27JAN2023 11:06:52  18.9N   64.3W mb=4.6  ANSS   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION        

P: 28JAN2023 150111    18.0N   64.0W 3.0-5.0 AAAAA  Leeward Islands             

 

A major swarm of minor earthquakes occurred today in the Canary Island in the Central Atlantic. It occurred near local solar noon and was short-lived. This is like other volcanic swarms in the area and may indicate re-emergence of volcanism in the area. This follows a highly unusual earthquake south of this in the Cape Verde Islands area, the strongest in more than 35 years, which occurred yesterday. It may be related to that earthquake.

 

O: 27JAN2023 14:35:44  28.1N   16.2W ML=2.6  EMSC   CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION 

O: 27JAN2023 13:47:05  28.1N   16.2W ML=2.5  EMSC   CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION

 

In other news, Popocatepetl in central Mexico erupted with ash and lava today.

It was not an immediate threat to populated areas. Also Chilean officials  raised the alert level of Lascar Volcano in northern Chile to Orange. This means that an eruption is likely but not imminent at this volcano near the Bolivian border. Villarrica volcano in Chile south of this is also showing signs of renewed  volcanic activity. Lascar volcano is at 144 degrees from the M 7.5 in the Banda Sea of January 9, 2023 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

 

The largest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 3.9-4.4 in the Prince George, British Columbia area of Canada. This follows enhanced seismicity over the past two days in the region of Alberta, Canada as described in the previous issue of this summary:

 

"Two earthquakes of M 3.9 hit the area of Alberta, Canada on January 25. These events were at different epicenters about 250 km apart. They are at 102-103 degrees from the M 7.2 in Molucca Sea of January 18 and were probably promoted by energy from that source. The last earthquake of M>=3.9 in Alberta was an M 4.5 on December 1, 2022 near one of today's epicenters. Forecast 149972 had expected activity in these areas in mid-January." (January 26, 2023)

 

This is an unusual epicenter. The last earthquake of M>=3.9 within about 150 km of this epicenter occurred more than 35 years ago. Earthquakes of M>=3 have hit the area within about 200 km as an M 3.2 on September 21, 2022, an M 3.4 on March 14, 2013 and an M 3.0 on February 9, 1993.  Forecast 149972 had expected today's event within about 100 km was likely in mid-January. This epicenter is at 106 degrees from the M 7.6 in Banda Sea of January 9, 2023 and may have been promoted by energy fro that source.

 

O: 27JAN2023 20:38:15  54.2N  121.9W ML=3.9  EMSC   BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA     

O: 27JAN2023 20:38:17  54.1N  121.9W MB=4.4  ECAN of Prince George, BC  

P: 17JAN2023 149972    54.0N  120.0W 2.0-4.1 CABAA  Alberta                    

 

STRONG EARTHQUAKE IN NORTHERN KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 26, 2023

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.0 in the Kermadec Islands, New Zealand. It was not reported felt in this remote area. This event was preceded by a series of earthquakes in the Kermadec Islands yesterday. This series was described in the previous issue of this summary as:

 

"A series of moderate earthquakes occurred in the Kermadec Islands of New Zealand today. They were not felt in this remote area. This activity included two of M 5.0 each in the northern and Central Kermadecs. Although an M 5.0-5.1 did hit in the northern Kermadec Islands on January 20, 2023, this is the first significant activity in the Kermadec Islands since an M 5.4 on December 20, 2022 and the first such in northern Kermadec Islands since an M 5.4 on December 13, 2022. A great earthquake of M 8.1 hit the area on March 4, 2021 relieving much of the accumulated regional strain. It may indicate activation of the area with a possible strong earthquake in the near future." (January 25-26, 2023)

 

The last earthquake with M>=6 in the northern or central Kermadec Islands occurred on March 2, 2022 with M 6.6 and before that an M 6.5 on January 29, 2022.

 Forecast 150314 had expected today's event within about 50 km was likely  around January 26, 2023.

 

O: 26JAN2023 10:45:53  30.3S  178.7W Mw=6.0  EMSC   KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND

P: 26JAN2023 150314    30.0S  178.0W 4.0-5.4 AAAAA  No. Kermadec Islands       

 

The strongest earthquake felt in the world today was an M 4.8 in Djibouti. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II in Aden, Yemen. This earthquake appears to have been triggered by Solar Flare #4280 - an M2.8 Class flare which peaked within about five minutes of this earthquake in Djibouti. (see flare lists below). This is the second strongest Solar Flare observed in the past week - following an M4.6 flare that triggered moderate seismicity in the Santa Monica, California area at 10:00 UT on January 25. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

 

"This earthquake appears to have been triggered by a strong solar flare - an M4.6 which reached maximum intensity within several minutes of this earthquake in Southern California. This flare of M4.6 is the strongest reported by SWPC since an M6.0 on January 15 (#340). An X1.0 occurred on January 10, 2023 and an

X1.9 occurred on January 9 (#8520 and 8040)." (January 25, 2023)

 

The relation of solar flares to earthquakes in Djibouti and Ethiopia was emphasized in this summary when an M 5.1 hit the area of Djibouti on January 18, 2023 as:

 

 

"A moderate M 5.1 also occurred near 45 East longitude in the area of Djibouti today. A smaller foreshock preceded this event. This continues activation of this region in recent days much of which was promoted by strong solar and geomagnetic storms. Most of this including an M 5.5 on December 26, 2022 and an M 4.9 on January 9, 2023 occurred about 400 km west of today's event. The last event in Djibouti listed by EMSC was an M 3.8 on January 4, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

" ... an M 3.5 occurred in Djibouti, Ethiopia today. This possibility had been discussed on December 12 as being a possible triggering point from strong solar flares at this time as:

 

"The area of Africa was unusually seismic today. Moderate earthquakes were recorded in Djibouti (M 3.5), South Africa (M 4.4) and Morocco (M 4.5). The earthquake in Djibouti may be the beginning of stronger activity in that region and in Ethiopia. This usually peaks during high solar flare periods as it is located on the geomagnetic equator in areas of high heat flow." (December 12, 2022, December 26, 2022)

 

The only earthquake in Djibouti with equal or larger magnitude in the past

5 years was an M 4.4 on August 31, 2020. The last of significantly larger magnitude were of M 4.7 on April 14, 2017.  The only event of M>=5 in the  area was an M 5.6 on June 17, 2012, part of a strong regional activation with the last solar active period." (January 19, 2023)

 

Furthermore when an M 5.5 earthquake hit the area of Ethiopia nearby Djibouti on December 26, 2022 this summary noted:

 

"The first of today's earthquakes in Ethiopia was simultaneous with flare 4230 - C3.6 flare and the largest in the past 30 hours. A stronger C4.4 coincided with the aftershock in Ethiopia of M 4.6. This suggests SFE was a factor in the enhanced magnitude of these events. Today's event of M 5.2-5.5 is the strongest in Ethiopia within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 5.6-5.7 eleven years ago on June 12, 2011 and prior to that a series of events up to M 5.5 in late September, 2005. The largest earthquake in the area in the past 30 years was M 5.7 on August 10, 2002 and June 2, 2011." (December 27, 2022)

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

#------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

4280       1253   1306      1315   M2.8      (January 26, 2023)   2.1E-02  

 

Forecast 150106 had expected today's event within about 150 km was likely  around January 21, 2023.

 

O: 26JAN2023 13:05:41  11.7N   43.8E mb=4.8  EMSC   NEAR THE COAST OF DJIBOUTI   

P: 21JAN2023 150106    13.0N   43.0E 3.5-4.9 BBAAA  Ethiopia                   

 

Two earthquakes of M 3.9 hit the area of Alberta, Canada on January 25. These events were at different epicenters about 250 km apart. They are at 102-103 degrees from the M 7.2 in Molucca Sea of January 18 and were probably promoted by energy from that source. The last earthquake of M>=3.9 in Alberta was an M 4.5 on December 1, 2022 near one of today's epicenters. Forecast 149972 had expected activity in these areas in mid-January.

 

O: 25JAN2023 18:36:39  56.1N  116.6W MB=3.9  ECAN of Reno, AB                    

O: 25JAN2023 11:46:34  54.3N  117.7W MB=3.9  ECAN of Fox Creek, AB               

P: 17JAN2023 149972    54.0N  120.0W 2.0-4.1 CA BA  Alberta                    

 

The largest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.1 in the Andreanof Islands, Aleutians. It was not reported felt in this remote area. The last earthquake of M>=5.1 within about 150 km of today's epicenter was an M 5.8 on August 16, 2020. The last within about 100 km was an 5.1 on March 21, 2015. These events are about 100 km south of the normal seismicity in the area. Forecast 150246 had expected this activity was likely around January 27.

 

O: 26JAN2023 16:41:36  50.7N  172.6W Mw=5.1  EMSC   ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS

P: 27JAN2023 150246    52.2N  173.9W 3.5-4.9 ABAAA  Andreanoff Isls, Aleutians 

 

An unusual earthquake of M 3.7 occurred today near local solar noon in the area off the coast of Baja, California. The last earthquake of M>=3.7 within  about 100 km of this epicenter was an M 3.8 on September 8, 2018. This may be part of the recent earthquakes that began with an M 6.2 off Baja California of November 22, 2022 or the earthquakes three days ago south of Los Angeles, California.  Forecast 150184 had expected this event within about 25 km was likely around January 26-30. 

 

O: 26JAN2023 21:39:11  31.9N  117.2W ML=3.7  EMSC   OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXI

P: 26JAN2023 150184    32.9N  117.6W 2.5-4.7 AAAAA  So. California             

P: 30JAN2023 150184    32.0N  117.4W 2.5-4.9 BAAAA  So. California             

 

A pair of antipodal earthquakes occurred today in the Sunda Strait (M 4.2) and in Colombia (M 4.7) about two hours apart. Antipodal events in these areas are not uncommon but may signify an outside influence such as solar flares, GRB or geomagnetic influence.

 

O: 27JAN2023 02:11:55   6.6S  104.1E ML=4.2  EMSC   SUNDA STRAIT, INDONESIA      

P: 29JAN2023 150093     6.0S  103.0E 4.0-5.4 AAAAA  So. of Sumatera            

 

The earthquake in Colombia occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and may have been promoted by high tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. NEIC reported this earthquake of M 4.5 in Colombia was felt with intensity II III in the area(s) of Colombia in Pereira and Manizales.  Forecast 150061 had expected this event in late January.

 

O: 27JAN2023 04:34:38   5.1N   76.1W mb=4.5  EMSC   COLOMBIA                     

P: 23JAN2023 150061     7.0N   78.0W 4.0-5.4 BBBAA  Colombia                   

 

STRONG QUAKE SHAKES DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE; UNUSUAL CAPE VERDE QUAKE

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 25, 2023

 

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.9 in the Dodecanese Islands of Greece and Turkey. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity V in the Dodecanese Islands, Greece at Lardos and IV in Rodos. Intensity III shaking occurred in Greece at Afantou, Koskinou, Sgourou, Soroni, Simi and in Turkey at Fethiye, Mugla and Kas, Antalya among other communities. A light foreshock occurred near this epicenter on January 24. At the time this summary noted:

 

"A light earthquake of M 2.7 was also recorded in the eastern Mediterranean Sea near Turkey today. This event is notable as it occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and may have been promoted by high tidal stresses with the new moon of January 21. It lies near the longitude of maximum tidal stress with that alignment (see above and under "TIDAL" section of this summary. The last significant earthquake within about 100 km of this epicenter was an M 5.5 on June 28, 2020. A major event of M 7.0 shook the area about 250 km northwest of this on October 30, 2020.  This activity is at 103 degrees from the M 7.6 in the Banda Sea of January 9, 2023 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.  Forecast 150195 had expected enhanced seismicity within about 100 km"  (January 24-25, 2023)

 

The last earthquake in the Dodecanese Islands within about 200 km of today's epicenter with M>=5.9 was an M 5.9 about 150 km south of today's epicenter on October 19, 2021. The last within about 150 km was an M 6.0 on June 10, 2012.

At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

"Strong earthquakes of M 5.6-6.0 hit the regions of the Dodecanese Islands, Greece and Hindu Kush in Afghanistan today. These followed a strong M1.3 solar flare. The Hindu Kush earthquakes occurred at an epicenter which was within 30 minutes of local solar noon when the flare occurred. The sub-solar nature of this subsequent earthquake strongly suggests triggering from Solar Flare effects. The earthquake in the Dodecanese Islands occurred may have been similarly triggered. ...

 

At least 60 were reported injured in this earthquake with six injured while jumping out of windows and balconies while in panic. The quake epicenter was near the resort city of Mugla. A number of hotels in Antalya and Mugla evacuated tourists. Fifty-four of the injured were in Fethiye. Two others were  hospitalized with heart attacks. This is the largest earthquake in this area within about 250 km of this epicenter since an M 6.4 about 200 km southwest of this epicenter on July 15, 2008. The only event in the past 22 years within 150 km of today's epicenter of M>=5.8 was an M 5.8 on January 23, 2005. An M 6.2 also occurred about 150 km to the west on July 20, 1996." (June 10, 2012)

 

Today's event followed an M4.6 solar flare about 2 hours earlier (see flare lists below) and may have been triggered by SFE associated with that flare.

This event is at 103 degrees from the M 7.6 in the Banda Sea of January 9 and was probably promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 25JAN2023 12:37:06  35.8N   28.5E Mw=5.9  EMSC   EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA    

P: 22JAN2023 150195    35.0N   28.0E 3.5-5.1 BAAAA  Turkey                     

 

 

The most unusual earthquake in the world today was an M 5.3 in the Cape Verde Islands region. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III i Cape Verde in Mindelo, Ponta do Sol, Assomada and Praia. The last earthquake of M>=5.3 in the Cape Verde area of the central Atlantic within about 300 km of this epicenter occurred more than 35 years ago. The only earthquake in the general Cape Verde region in this time period of M>=5.0 was an M 5.0 on September 18, 1998 about 250 km south of today's epicenter.  Today's earthquake may have been promoted by energy from Tropical Cyclone Irene which formed near the antipode of Cape Verde about a week ago. This summary noted it at the time as:

 

"TC Irene (09P) formed today (at 16S 158E) in the area southwest of Vanuatu with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track to the  east and south and may  trigger some seismicity in the region of Vanuatu while in the region." (January 19, 2023)

 

Forecasts 149798 and 150116 had expected enhanced seismicity in the Central

Mid-Atlantic west of this epicenter in mid-January. This epicenter is at 146 degrees from the M 7.2 in the Molucca Sea of January 18 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 26JAN2023 04:16:09  16.6N   25.6W Mw=5.3  EMSC   CAPE VERDE                   

P: 15JAN2023 149798    14.0N   34.0W 4.0-5.9 CCDAA  Central Mid-Atlantic       

P: 27JAN2023 150116    17.0N   47.0W 4.0-5.8 AADCA  Central Mid-Atlantic       

 

An M 4.3 quake also occurred today in Ethiopia. This is an area where seismicity is often brought on by strong solar flares. An M2.0 flare (#4190) occurred about an hour before this earthquake and may have triggered it by SFE. This and the area of Djibouti had shown increased seismicity in the past several months with the increase in solar activity. This is expected to continue. Forecast 150106 had expected today's activity in Ethiopia was likely around January 26.

 

O: 25JAN2023 23:38:27  12.5N   40.5E mb=4.3  EMSC   ETHIOPIA                     

P: 26JAN2023 150106    12.0N   40.0E 3.5-4.9 AAAAA  Ethiopia                   

 

An earthquake of M 5.5 occurred in Sichuan, China today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity VI in Sichuan at Yaan and II in Chengdu. This appears to be the strongest aftershock to date of an M 6.6-6.8 near this epicenter of September 5, 2022. That event was discussed in this summary at the time as:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake felt in the world today was an M 6.6-6.8 in Sichuan, China. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity VIII in Sichuan at Yaan, IV in Huayang, Chengdu, Guihu, III in Leshan, Mianyang, Jiangyou, Yongohang, Heyang. The official Chinese network - CENC - reported this at M 6.8. At least 65 have been confirmed death with many others still missing and thousands  homeless. Around 1000 appear to have been injured in this earthquake, mostly in the cities of Moxi and Ya'an. The city of Chengdu of 21 million residents saw slight damage and casualties but remained under COVID-19 restrictions for residents and emergency personnel preventing effective disaster mitigation. The earthquake knocked out power and damaged buildings in the Tibetan town of Moxi where 37 were killed. More than 50,000 have been moved into tents for fear of unstable homes and living conditions. Damage and rockslides on highways occurred. The landslides reportedly  damaged homes and caused power outages and created a new lake." (September 5, 2022)

 

Earthquakes of M 5.9 also hit the area on June 1 and June 9, 2022. Forecast 150139 had expected today's activity to the south was likely around January 25, 2023.

 

O: 25JAN2023 19:49:46  29.8N  102.1E Mw=5.5  EMSC   WESTERN SICHUAN, CHINA

O: 25JAN2023 21:19:09  29.8N  102.0E mb=4.4  EMSC   WESTERN SICHUAN, CHINA

O: 25JAN2023 20:51:12  29.4N  101.9E mb=4.6  EMSC   WESTERN SICHUAN, CHINA       

O: 25JAN2023 23:21:38  29.7N  102.0E mb=4.9  EMSC   WESTERN SICHUAN, CHINA       

P: 25JAN2023 150139    26.0N  101.0E 4.0-5.5 ACAAA  Myanmar                    

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.5 in the Kodiak Island region of Alaska. This is the strongest earthquake in the Kodiak Island area since an M 4.6 on October 12, 2022. The only earthquakes of significantly larger magnitude in the Kodiak area in the past 2.5 years was an M 4.9 on January 3, 2021 and an M 4.8 on January 11, 2022. Forecast 150270 had expected today's event to the northeast was likely around January 27.

 

O: 25JAN2023 15:13:34  57.5N  154.9W mb=4.5  EMSC   KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 

P: 27JAN2023 150270    60.3N  153.0W 3.2-5.0 ACAAA  Central Alaska             

 

A series of light to moderate earthquakes were lightly felt in the Malibu and Los Angeles areas of Southern California today. This was presented in the previous issue of this summary, but because of the regional interest in these events this analysis is updated and  repeated today here:

 

"A moderate earthquake of M 4.2 was followed by aftershocks of M 3.7 and 2.6 in the Malibu area of Southern California today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Malibu and Los Angeles with intensity II-III in Santa Monica, Marina del Rey, Calabasas, Redondo Beach and as far as Whittier, Altadena, Pasadena, California. The aftershocks were felt in a similar area.  This activity occurred near local solar midnight at a longitude consistent with tidal triggering related to the close encounter new moon of January 21, 2023 as previously described in this summary:

 

"The new moon will arrive on January 21, 2023 at 20:53 UT. Longitudes which are at sub-solar conditions (local solar noon) at this time are near 135 West while those at local solar midnight are near 45 East longitude. In the west these include most of the coastline of North America from Alaska to California and portions of the East Pacific Rise while in the east the areas of Iran, Eastern Turkey, eastern Africa, and central Asia are included. These are the regions most likely to see substantial tidal triggering in the next week. Other areas may also see triggering with this new moon tidal alignment especially areas where SFE is also active. Tidally triggered events are most likely to occur new local solar midnight or noon. This is a super-moon that is the closest to the earth of any approach since the year 1030 with the next such approach 353 years from now. Tides are related to the third power of the distance, so even a small reduction in distance and have a considerable effect on tidal stress and subsequent tidally related seismicity. Likelihood of a strong to major tidally promoted earthquake in the next week are considered moderate to high." (January 18-22, 2023)

 

This earthquake appears to have been triggered by a strong solar flare - an M4.6 which reached maximum intensity within several minutes of this earthquake in Southern California. This flare of M4.6 is the strongest reported by SWPC since an M6.0 on January 15 (#340). An X1.0 occurred on January 10, 2023 and an X1.9 occurred on January 9 (#8520 and 8040).

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

#------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

4040       0937   1011      1049   M4.6      (January 25, 2023)   1.5E-01  

 

Today's M 4.2 is the strongest earthquake within about 100 km of this epicenter since an M 4.3 on September 18, 2021. The last earthquake in the area of  significantly larger magnitude was an M 4.7 on May 18, 2009. The last strong earthquake to occur in this region was the Northridge M 6.7 of January 17, 1994. That event was preceded by several light earthquakes felt in the Los Angeles area of M 3.6 and 3.7 on January 9, 1994 and January 12, 1994 within about 15 km of today's epicenters. This caused some residents of Los Angeles to believe that a stronger event in the region was imminent and to take precautions. An earthquake of M 6.7 also hit the area on February 9, 1971 - the San Fernando earthquake. The period of 30-33 years appears to be the approximate inter-event time for large earthquakes in this region. Since it has been 29 years since the Northridge quake, the area is entering into a period of likely enhanced seismicity. Triggering of today's activity by a strong solar flare suggests that the region is near a breaking point which could be reached in the near future and could be triggered by a strong X-class solar flare.  Today's earthquake occurred at 15 km depth - a depth at which moderate to large earthquakes often occur in this region (the Northridge quake was at 18 km depth) - near the brittle-ductile transition boundary.

 

Further factors which has historically been in play with larger earthquakes in Southern California include Tropical Cyclones in the area south of Madagascar which are prominent at this time of year and major earthquakes in  Indonesia.  For example, the M 6.7 in February, 1971 was preceded a month earlier by an M 8.1 in New Guinea at 3S 140E. This area - at 103 degrees from Los Angeles, California - has shown several swarms in recent days and could generate a strong earthquake at this time. 

 

A tropical Cyclone (Cheneso) is currently located north of Madagascar. This is expected to track to the south and then to the east, reaching an antipodal position to southern California in several days. Antipodal focusing of energy from this storm could further complicate seismicity in the region of Southern California at this time. TC Cheneso was noted in this and previous issues

of this summary as:

 

"TC Cheneso (08S) continued today in the area west of Northern Madagascar with winds up to 85 kts. It is expected to track to the south over the next several days. Some triggering of seismicity in East Africa may occur with this storm." (January 23-25, 2023)

 

and

 

"TC Cheneso (08S) continued today in the area west of Northern Madagascar with winds up to 90 kts. It is expected to track to the south over the next several days. Some triggering of seismicity in East Africa may occur with this storm. This system will be at 34S 60E on January 31 with winds up to 65 kts. This is antipodal to southern California and Los Angeles where moderate earthquakes occurred on January 25. Focused antipodal energy from this storm could lead to enhanced seismicity in Southern California at that time." (January 26, 2023)

 

 

Forecast 150186 had expected this activity within about 30 km was likely around

January 22-25, 2023." (January 25, 2023)

 

 

 

O: 25JAN2023 10:03:33  33.9N  118.7W Ml=3.6  EMSC   CHANNEL ISLANDS REG., CALIFORNIA

O: 25JAN2023 10:22:31  33.9N  118.7W ML=2.7  EMSC   CHANNEL ISLANDS REG., CALIFORNIA

O: 25JAN2023 10:38:48  33.9N  118.7W ML=2.8  EMSC   CHANNEL ISLANDS REG., CALIFORNIA

O: 25JAN2023 10:00:54  33.9N  118.7W Mw=4.2  EMSC   CHANNEL ISLANDS REG., CALIFORN

P: 22JAN2023 150186    33.9N  118.3W 2.5-4.6 BAAAA  So. California             

P: 25JAN2023 150186    34.3N  118.5W 2.5-4.7 AAAAA  So. California             

 

A series of moderate earthquakes occurred in the Kermadec Islands of New Zealand today. They were not felt in this remote area. This activity included two of M 5.0 each in the northern and Central Kermadecs. Although an M 5.0-5.1 did hit in the northern Kermadec Islands on January 20, 2023, this is the first significant activity in the Kermadec Islands since an M 5.4 on December 20, 2022 and the first such in northern Kermadec Islands since an M 5.4 on December 13, 2022. A great earthquake of M 8.1 hit the area on March 4, 2021 relieving much of the accumulated regional strain. It may indicate activation of the area with a possible strong earthquake in the near future. Forecasts 150308, 150314, 150317 and 150315 had expected this activity around January 23-29.

 

O: 25JAN2023 20:13:07  28.3S  176.0W mb=5.0  EMSC   KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION      

P: 26JAN2023 150308    27.0S  177.0W 4.0-5.4 ABAAA  Tonga Islands              

 

O: 25JAN2023 18:08:33  29.7S  178.9E mb=4.2  EMSC   KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION      

O: 26JAN2023 04:07:55  30.3S  178.7W mb=4.4  EMSC   KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND

P: 26JAN2023 150314    30.0S  178.0W 4.0-5.4 AAAAA  No. Kermadec Islands       

 

O: 25JAN2023 15:09:35  31.4S  178.2W mb=5.0  EMSC   KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION      

P: 25JAN2023 150317    32.0S  180.0W 4.0-5.4 AABAA  So. Kermadec Islands       

 

O: 25JAN2023 13:15:49  35.4S  178.7E ML=4.0  EMSC   OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z

P: 23JAN2023 150314    37.0S  179.0E 3.5-4.9 ABAAA  E. of North Islands N.Z.   

P: 29JAN2023 150315    35.0S  179.0E 3.0-4.5 BAAAA  North Island, N.Z.          

 

Aftershocks also continued in the Molucca Sea following the M 7.6 there a week ago. The largest of these today was an M 5.7. Forecast 150064 had expected enhanced seismicity in this area around January 27.

 

O: 26JAN2023 04:23:52   2.9N  127.0E Mw=5.7  EMSC   MOLUCCA SEA

P: 27JAN2023 150064     3.0N  127.0E 4.0-5.4 AAAAA  Halmahera                  

 

 

STRONG SOLAR FLARE TRIGGERS MODERATE QUAKES SOUTH OF LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 24, 2023

 

A moderate earthquake of M 4.2 was followed by aftershocks of M 3.7 and 3.5 in the Malibu area of Southern California today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Malibu and Los Angeles with intensity II-III in Santa Monica, Marina del Rey, Calabasas, Redondo Beach and as far as Whittier, Altadena, Pasadena, California. The aftershocks were felt in a similar area.  This activity occurred near local solar midnight at a longitude consistent with tidal triggering related to the close encounter new moon of January 21, 2023 as previously described in this summary:

 

"The new moon will arrive on January 21, 2023 at 20:53 UT. Longitudes which are at sub-solar conditions (local solar noon) at this time are near 135 West while those at local solar midnight are near 45 East longitude. In the west these include most of the coastline of North America from Alaska to California and portions of the East Pacific Rise while in the east the areas of Iran, Eastern Turkey, eastern Africa, and central Asia are included. These are the regions most likely to see substantial tidal triggering in the next week. Other areas may also see triggering with this new moon tidal alignment especially areas where SFE is also active. Tidally triggered events are most likely to occur new local solar midnight or noon. This is a super-moon that is the closest to the earth of any approach since the year 1030 with the next such approach 353 years from now. Tides are related to the third power of the distance, so even a small reduction in distance and have a considerable effect on tidal stress and subsequent tidally related seismicity. Likelihood of a strong to major tidally promoted earthquake in the next week are considered moderate to high." (January 18-22, 2023)

 

This earthquake appears to have been triggered by a strong solar flare - an M4.6 which reached maximum intensity within several minutes of this earthquake in Southern California. This flare of M4.6 is the strongest reported by SWPC since an M6.0 on January 15 (#340). An X1.0 occurred on January 10, 2023 and an X1.9 occurred on January 9 (#8520 and 8040).

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

#------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

XXXX       0935   1000      1025   M4.6      (January 25, 2023)   4.5E-02  

 

Today's M 4.2 is the strongest earthquake within about 100 km of this epicenter since an M 4.3 on September 18, 2021. The last earthquake in the area of  significantly larger magnitude was an M 4.7 on May 18, 2009. The last strong earthquake to occur in this region was the Northridge M 6.7 of January 17, 1994. That event was preceded by several light earthquakes felt in the Los Angeles area of M 3.6 and 3.7 on January 9, 1994 and January 12, 1994 within about 15 km of today's epicenters. This caused some residents of Los Angeles to believe that a stronger event in the region was imminent and to take precautions. An earthquake of M 6.7 also hit the area on February 9, 1971 - the San Fernando earthquake. The period of 30-33 years appears to be the approximate inter-event time for large earthquakes in this region. Since it has been 29 years since the Northridge quake, the area is entering into a period of likely enhanced seismicity. Triggering of today's activity by a strong solar flare suggests that the region is near a breaking point which could be reached in the near future and could be triggered by a strong X-class solar flare. Today's earthquake occurred at 15 km depth - a depth at which moderate to large earthquakes often occur in this region (the Northridge quake was at 18 km depth) - near the brittle-ductile transition boundary.

 

Further factor which has historically been in play with larger earthquakes in Southern California include Tropical Cyclones in the area south of Madagascar which are prominent at this time of year and major earthquakes in  Indonesia.  For example, the M 6.7 in February, 1971 was preceded a month earlier by an M 8.1 in New Guinea at 3S 140E. This area - at 103 degrees from Los Angeles, California - has shown several swarms in recent days and could generate a strong earthquake at this time. 

 

A tropical Cyclone (Cheneso) is currently located north of Madagascar. This is expected to track to the south and then to the east, reaching an antipodal position to southern California in several days. Antipodal focusing of energy from this storm could further complicate seismicity in the region of Southern California at this time. TC Chenesco was noted in this and previous issues of this summary as:

 

"TC Cheneso (08S) continued today in the area west of Northern Madagascar with winds up to 85 kts. It is expected to track to the south over the next several days. Some triggering of seismicity in East Africa may occur with this storm." (January 23-25, 2023)

 

Forecast 150186 had expected this activity within about 30 km was likely around January 22-25, 2023.

 

O: 25JAN2023 10:03:31  33.9N  118.7W ML=3.3  EMSC   CHANNEL ISLANDS REG., CALIFORNIA

O: 25JAN2023 10:03:33  33.9N  118.7W ml=3.5  ANSS   Malibu Beach CA

O: 25JAN2023 10:00:54  33.9N  118.7W mw=4.2  ANSS   S of Malibu Beach

O: 25JAN2023 10:22:33  33.9N  118.7W Ml=2.8  EMSC   CHANNEL ISLANDS REG., CALIFORNIA

O: 25JAN2023 10:00:54  33.9N  118.7W Mw=4.2  EMSC   CHANNEL ISLANDS REG., CALIFORN

P: 22JAN2023 150186    33.9N  118.3W 2.5-4.6 BAAAA  So. California             

P: 25JAN2023 150186    34.3N  118.5W 2.5-4.7 AAAAA  So. California             

 

An M 3.6-3.7 earthquake in Oklahoma occurred less than a minute following the M 4.2 in Southern California. It is likely that event was also triggered by the strong M4.6 solar flare. P-waves from southern California had not reached the area of Oklahoma when this M 3.7 occurred. The first energy from southern California to arrive in Oklahoma got there as a p-wave about three minutes after the M 4.2 in Los Angeles, too late to have influenced regional seismicity in Oklahoma. NEIC reported this earthquake in Oklahoma was felt with intensity II-III in Edmond, Oklahoma. An M 4.1 in Central Peru 11 minutes before the M 4.2 in Southern California may also have been triggered by SFE from the M4.6 flare. The area of Oklahoma often sees enhanced seismicity with strong tidal and/or solar flare activity. The last earthquake of M>=3.7 within about 100 km of today's event in Oklahoma occurred nearly a year ago on January 31, 2022 (M 4.5) and prior to that on September 19, 2021 (M 3.8). Triggering by SFE in this area suggests a larger event is likely in the near future in this region.

 

Forecast 150193 had expected this event within about 25 km was likely around January 24, 2023. This epicenter is located at 103 degrees from the M 7.0 in Vanuatu of January 8, 2023 and may have been promoted by energy rom that source.

 

O: 25JAN2023 10:01:42  35.9N   97.2W ml=3.7  ANSS   km ENE of Meridian

O: 25JAN2023 10:01:42  35.9N   97.2W ML=3.6  EMSC   OKLAHOMA                     

P: 24JAN2023 150193    36.0N   97.0W 2.0-4.3 AAAAA  Southern Plains            

 

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.4 in Argentina. This follows an M 6.8 in the area on January 19, 2023 and may be an aftershock of that event. Both occurred at deep focus. Today's event was felt with intensity II in Cascavel, Brazil, Iquique, Tarapaca, Chile, Santiago and Valparaiso, Chile. It is unusual to see strong, deep focus, aftershocks days apart as the temperature regime at these depths quickly heals ruptures.  When the earthquake of M 6.8 occurred in Argentina on January 20, 2023, this summary noted:

 

 

"The last earthquake of M>=6.8 within about 300 km of today's event in Argentina was an M 6.8 on May 28, 2012 and an M 7.0 on January 1, 2011." (January 21, 2023)

 

Forecasts 150025 and 150299 had expected today's activity in mid-January in this area of Argentina. This earthquake is located at 144 degrees from the M 7.6 in the Banda Sea of January 9, 2023 and at 101-103 degrees from the recent major earthquakes in Tonga and Fiji and  at the sixth node (60 degrees) from the M 7.6 in Michoacan, Mexico of September 19, 2022 and was probably promoted by energy from those sources.

 

 

O: 24JAN2023 18:36:59  26.7S   63.2W Mw=6.4  EMSC   SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO, ARGENTINA

P: 13JAN2023 150025    28.0S   64.0W 4.0-5.8 CBAAA  Argentina                  

P: 22JAN2023 150299    23.0S   65.0W 4.0-5.7 ACBAA  Argentina                  

 

A strong earthquake was also felt today as an M 5.6-5.7 in Nepal. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity VII in Jumla, V in Dipayal, Doti, Nepal with IV in Nepal at Dallekh, Birendranagar and in Kichha, Uttaranchal, India. Intensity II-III was also felt in Nepal in Tansen, Palpa, and Pokhara, Kashi. In India this earthquake was felt with intensity II-III in Uttaranchal at Almora, Clement Town, and in Uttar Pradesh at Lakhnau, Cawnpore, Dankaur and Ghaziabad among other communities. EMSC reported light to moderate shaking in Nepal at Simikot, Birendranagar, Dhangadhi, Kohalpur, Kanchanpur, Pokhara, and in India at Pithoragarh, Almora, Haldwani, Pilibhit, Bhikia Sain, Shahjahanpur among other communities.

 

This is the strongest earthquake in Nepal within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 6.0 on September 25, 2008 and an M 6.2 on April 7, 2005 and July 11, 2004, the only such events in Nepal in the past 35 years. Forecast 150200 had expected today's event in this region was likely around January 23, 2023. This epicenter is at 105 degrees from the M 6.4 off northern California of December 20, 2022 and from recent strong earthquakes in Fiji and Tonga and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.

 

O: 24JAN2023 08:58:30  29.7N   81.7E mb=5.6  EMSC   NEPAL                        

P: 23JAN2023 150200    30.0N   83.0E 3.8-5.2 AAAAA  Xizang                     

 

Aftershocks also continued in the region south of Malta in the Mediterranean Sea today. The strongest earthquake in the area today was an M 5.3, the strongest in the current swarm. This activity was addressed in previous issues of this summary in part as:

 

"An earthquake of M 5.0 occurred near Malta in the Central Mediterranean today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity I-II in Malta at Floriana and Ta Xbiex, Inner Harbour and San Pawl il-Bahar. ... This earthquake of M 5.0 is the strongest within about 150 km of this epicenter in the past 30 years. An M 5.3 occurred about 200 km west of this on September 10, 1993 and near this epicenter with M 5.3 on September 29, 1992." (January 23-24, 2023)

 

NEIC reported today's earthquake of M 5.3 in Malta was felt with intensity IV in the area(s) of Malta in Zurrieq, Birzebugia, Marsaxlokk, Bormia, and II-III in Safi, Rabat, Zebbug, Marsascala, Isla, Msida, Mosta, Sliema, San Paul and Mellieha. Forecast 150170 had expected today's enhanced activity within about 25 km of this epicenter was likely around January 22, 2023.  This activity is at 146 degrees from the M 7.0 in Vanuatu of January 8, 2023 and at 106 degrees from the M 7.0 in the Molucca Sea today (like today’s activity near Los Angeles, California) and at 102 degrees from the M 7.6 in Michoacan, Mexico of September 19, 2022 and may have been promoted by energy from that source." (January 18, 19 2023)

 

O: 25JAN2023 01:12:51  34.8N   14.2E mb=4.0  EMSC   CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN SEA

O: 24JAN2023 20:25:35  34.9N   14.3E Mw=5.3  EMSC   CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN SEA

O: 25JAN2023 03:28:59  34.9N   14.2E ML=3.9  EMSC   CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN SEA

O: 25JAN2023 04:06:30  34.9N   14.0E ML=3.5  EMSC   CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN SEA

O: 25JAN2023 07:54:45  34.9N   14.2E ML=4.0  EMSC   CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN SEA

O: 24JAN2023 22:10:37  34.7N   14.3E ML=3.8  EMSC   CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN SEA    

O: 25JAN2023 06:44:06  35.0N   14.2E ML=3.8  EMSC   CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN SEA    

P: 22JAN2023 150170    35.0N   14.0E 3.0-4.6 AAAAA  Mediterranean/Sicily       

 

A light earthquake of M 2.7 was also recorded in the eastern Mediterranean Sea near Turkey today. This event is notable as it occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and may have been promoted by high tidal stresses with the new moon of January 21. It lies near the longitude of maximum tidal stress with that alignment (see above and under "TIDAL" section of this summary. The last significant earthquake within about 100 km of this epicenter was an M 5.5 on June 28, 2020. A major event of M 7.0 shook the area about 250 km northwest of this on October 30, 2020.  This activity is at 103 degrees from the M 7.6 in the Banda Sea of January 9, 2023 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.  Forecast 150195 had expected enhanced seismicity within about 100 km

 

O: 24JAN2023 22:01:06  36.0N   28.1E ML=2.7  EMSC   EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA    

P: 22JAN2023 150195    35.0N   28.0E 3.5-5.1 AAAAA  Turkey                     

 

The strong aftershock sequence in the Molucca Sea, Indonesia also continued today. Two event of M>=5 occurred with M 5.5 and M 5.2. The M 5.2 occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses. This activity was located within about 25 km and three days of forecast 150064.

 

O: 24JAN2023 15:21:03   3.1N  127.2E ML=4.0  EMSC   KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA

O: 24JAN2023 20:17:55   3.1N  127.1E Mw=5.5  EMSC   KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA

O: 24JAN2023 16:10:16   3.6N  128.6E Mw=5.2  EMSC   NORTH OF HALMAHERA, INDONESIA

P: 27JAN2023 150064     3.0N  127.0E 4.0-5.4 AAAAA  Halmahera                  

 

MODERATE EARTHQUAKE IN NEPAL AND INDIA

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 23, 2023

 

 

The strongest earthquake felt in the world today was an M 5.6-5.7 in Nepal. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity V in Dipayal, Doti, Nepal with IV in Kichha, Uttaranchal, India. Intensity II-III was also felt in Nepal in Tansen, Palpa, and Pokhara, Kashi. In India this earthquake was felt with intensity II-III in Uttaranchal at Almora, Clement Town, and in Uttar Pradesh at Lakhnau, Cawnpore, Dankaur and Ghaziabad among other communities. EMSC reported light to moderate shaking in Nepal at Simikot, Birendranagar, Dhangadhi, Kohalpur, Kanchanpur, Pokhara, and in India at Pithoragarh, Almora, Haldwani, Pilibhit, Bhikia Sain, Shahjahanpur among other communities. This is the strongest earthquake in Nepal within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M i6.0 on September 25, 2008 and an M 6.2 on April 7, 2005 and July 11, 2004, the only such events in Nepal in the past 35 years. Forecast 150200 had expected today's event in this region was likely around January 23, 2023. This epicenter is at 105 degrees from the M 6.4 off northern California of December 20, 2022 and from recent strong earthquakes in Fiji and Tonga and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.

 

O: 24JAN2023 08:58:31  29.7N   81.7E mb=5.7  EMSC   NEPAL                        

P: 23JAN2023 150200    30.0N   83.0E 3.8-5.2 AAAAA  Xizang                     

 

Moderately strong aftershocks of M 5.5 and M 5.8-5.9 also occurred in the Molucca Sea, Indonesia today. NEIC did not report these as felt but BMG indicated they were lightly felt in the epicentral areas. BMG reported the larger event at M 5.9. Following is a listing of events in the region today of M>=5. A more complete listing is found in the "INDONESIA" section of this summary. Forecast 150064 had expected regional activation was likely around January 27.

 

O: 23JAN2023 17:06:49   2.8N  127.0E mb=5.0  EMSC   MOLUCCA SEA

O: 24JAN2023 01:10:21   2.8N  127.0E Mw=5.1  EMSC   MOLUCCA SEA

O: 24JAN2023 02:13:16   2.8N  127.0E Mw=5.8  EMSC   MOLUCCA SEA

O: 23JAN2023 18:17:35   2.9N  127.2E mb=5.5  EMSC   MOLUCCA SEA

O: 24JAN2023 02:30:06   2.9N  127.1E mb=5.3  EMSC   MOLUCCA SEA

P: 27JAN2023 150064     3.0N  127.0E 4.0-5.4 BAAAA  Halmahera                   

 

 

A light earthquake of M 3.4-3.6 occurred today south of San Francisco, California as part of the activation of this region accompanying the new moon of January 21, 2023. NEIC reported today's event was felt with intensity II-III in Central California in San Martin, Morgan Hill, Gilroy, Watsonville, San Juan Bautista, Aptos, Hollister, Soquel and Los Gatos among other communities. A similar M 3.6 hit about 40 km south of this on January 19, 2023. This summary noted at the time:

 

 

"A series of light earthquakes occurred in the region of Central California today. ...  An M 3.6 was also widely felt north of San Francisco today. NEIC reported this earthquake was felt with maximum intensity IV...

 

This regional activation had been anticipated in the previous issue of this summary as:

 

"Recent earthquakes of M 7.6 in the Banda Sea and M 7.0 in the Molucca Sea  have been occurring at 103-106 degrees from the coast of Central California in the vicinity south of San Francisco, California and off the coast of northern California. This area is also on the edge of being strongly influenced by the upcoming new moon as it is near the longitude of maximum tidal stress with that alignment. As such enhanced seismicity in this area is likely in the next several days. The aftershock zone of the M 6.4 of December 20, 2022 is included in this watch area and a moderate aftershock is possible in this area in the next week." (January 18-19, 2023)

 

Forecast 150159 had expected today's event within about 10 km was likely around

January 25, 2023.

 

O: 23JAN2023 14:07:36  37.1N  121.5W Md=2.1  EMSC   NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 23JAN2023 13:58:02  37.1N  121.5W ML=3.4  EMSC   NORTHERN CALIFORNIA          

O: 23JAN2023 13:58:02  37.1N  121.5W ML=3.6  ANSS   NORTHERN CALIFORNIA          

P: 25JAN2023 150159    37.1N  121.5W 2.5-4.8 AAAAA  Central California         

 

An earthquake of M 5.1 shook the island of Malta in the Central Mediterranean Sea today. It was felt in Malta with maximum intensity IV in Mellieha and II-III in Gharghur, Sliema, Inner Harbour. EMSC reported intensity up to IV was felt in Malta at Zurrieq, Luqa, Rabat, Marsaskala, Birkirkara, Balzan, Marsa, Santa Venera, Msida, Valletta, Smart City, Sliema, Xemxija, Saint Paul's Bay, and Xaghra. This is the largest earthquake in the current series of events south of Malta. Today's event occurred within about 30 minutes of local solar noon and was probably promoted by high tidal stresses which maximize at this hour with the new moon. The initial activity near Malta occurred on January 18 and 19, 2023 and had been addressed in this summary at the time as:

 

"Moderate earthquakes continued in the region of Malta in the central Mediterranean Sea today. The strongest of these was an M 5.1. NEIC reported it was felt in Malta with intensity VII in San Lawrenz Gozo and Comino and IV in Birgu Inner Harbour with intensity II-III shaking in Malta at Rabat, Zabbar, Bormla, Lija, Mosta and San Pawl, il-Bahar. This activity began yesterday and was addressed at the time in this summary as:

 

"An earthquake of M 5.0 occurred near Malta in the Central Mediterranean today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity I-II in Malta at Floriana and Ta Xbiex, Inner Harbour and San Pawl il-Bahar. ... This earthquake of M 5.0 is the strongest within about 150 km of this epicenter in the past 30 years. An M 5.3 occurred about 200 km west of this on September 10, 1993 and near this epicenter with M 5.3 on September 29, 1992.

 

...

 

The unusual nature of this earthquake suggest that a strong aftershock sequence is likely in the next several days. Forecasts 149638 and 149900 had expected today's event in the Mediterranean south of Sicily and north of Malta was likely around January 7-14, 2023.  This activity is at 146 degrees from the M 7.0 in Vanuatu of January 8, 2023 and at 106 degrees from the M 7.0 in the Molucca Sea today and at 102 degrees from the M 7.6 in Michoacan, Mexico of September 19, 2022 and may have been promoted by energy from that source." (January 18, 19 2023)

 

This unique activity in Malta was likely promoted by the equally unusual new moon of January 21-22, 2023, at the closest approach to earth in nearly 1000 years. This was described in previous summaries as:

 

"The new moon will arrive on January 21, 2023 at 20:53 UT. Longitudes which are at sub-solar conditions (local solar noon) at this time are near 135 West while those at local solar midnight are near 45 East longitude. In the west these include most of the coastline of North America from Alaska to California and portions of the East Pacific Rise while in the east the areas of Iran, Eastern Turkey, eastern Africa, and central Asia are included. These are the regions most likely to see substantial tidal triggering in the next week. Other areas may also see triggering with this new moon tidal alignment especially areas where SFE is also active. Tidally triggered events are most likely to occur new local solar midnight or noon. This is a super-moon that is the closest to the earth of any approach since the year 1030 with the next such approach 353 years from now. Tides are related to the third power of the distance, so even a small reduction in distance and have a considerable effect on tidal stress and subsequent tidally related seismicity. Likelihood of a strong to major tidally promoted earthquake in the next week are considered moderate to high." (January 18-22, 2023)

 

Forecast 150170 had expected today's activity in Malta was likely within about

25 km around January 22, 2023. This epicenter is at 148 degrees from the M 7.0 in Vanuatu of January 8 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 23JAN2023 10:37:53  35.0N   14.2E Mw=5.1  EMSC   MALTA REGION                 

P: 22JAN2023 150170    35.0N   14.0E 3.0-4.6 AAAAA  Mediterranean/Sicily       

 

An unusual earthquake of M 4.0 occurred in the region of eastern Nunavut, Canada. Earthquakes hit near this epicenter with M 5.2 on July 12, 2022 and May 24, 2021 with M 4.2 and prior to that on July 25, 2005. Forecast 150266 had expected this event was likely within about 100 km of this epicenter around January 26, 2023.

 

O: 20JAN2023 14:48:40  61.8N   61.1W MB=4.0  ECAN of Iqaluit, NU                 

P: 26JAN2023 150266    61.0N   58.0W 2.5-4.0 CABAA  Baffin/Davis Strait Canada 

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.1 in Northern Alaska. It was not reported felt in this remote area. The last earthquake within  about 200 km of this epicenter with M>=4.1 occurred on December 16, 2019 with M 4.3. This and today's event appear to be aftershocks of an M 6.3 near this epicenter on August 12, 2018. Today's event occurred near local solar noon at a longitude which saw maximized tidal stresses with the new moon of  January 21 and was probably promoted by tidal energy. See above for the tidal forecast from this summary.

 

O: 23JAN2023 21:44:40  69.7N  144.5W Mw=4.1  EMSC   NORTHERN ALASKA              

 

MODERATE QUAKES CONTINUE SOUTH OF MALTA

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 22, 2023

 

An earthquake of M 5.1 shook the island of Malta in the Central Mediterrean Sea today. It was felt in Malta with maximum intensity IV in Mellieha and II-III in Gharghur, Sliema, Inner Harbour. EMSC reported intensity up to IV was felt in Malta at Zurrieq, Luqa, Rabat, Marsaskala, Birkirkara, Balzan, Marsa, Santa Venera, Msida, Valletta, Smart City, Sliema, Xemxija, Saint Paul's Bay, and Xaghra. This is the largest earthquake in the current series of events south of Malta. Today's event occurred within about 30 minutes of local solar noon and was probably promoted by high tidal stresses which maximize at this hour with the new moon. The initial activity near Malta occurred on January 18 and 19, 2023 and had been addressed in this summary at the time as:

 

"Moderate earthquakes continued in the region of Malta in the central Mediterranean Sea today. The strongest of these was an M 5.1. NEIC reported it was felt in Malta with intensity VII in San Lawrenz Gozo and Comino and IV in Birgu Inner Harbour with intensity II-III shaking in Malta at Rabat, Zabbar, Bormla, Lija, Mosta and San Pawl, il-Bahar. This activity began yesterday and was addressed at the time in this summary as:

 

"An earthquake of M 5.0 occurred near Malta in the Central Mediterranean today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity I-II in Malta at Floriana and Ta Xbiex, Inner Harbour and San Pawl il-Bahar. A foreshock of M 4.2 was felt with intensity III in Mellieha, Northern Malta. This earthquake occurred simultaneously with a C3.0 solar flare which began at the time of the M 5.0 in Malta. This earthquake of M 5.0 is the strongest within about 150 km of this epicenter in the past 30 years. An M 5.3 occurred about 200 km west of this on September 10, 1993 and near this epicenter with M 5.3 on September 29, 1992. The epicenter was within minutes of local solar midnight when the M1.8 class solar flare began (#1310) and was probably promoted by SFE associated with that flare which maximize at this hour (see flare listing above).

 

The unusual nature of this earthquake suggest that a strong aftershock sequence is likely in the next several days. Forecasts 149638 and 149900 had expected today's event in the Mediterranean south of Sicily and north of Malta was likely around January 7-14, 2023. This activity is at 146 degrees from the M 7.0 in Vanuatu of January 8, 2023 and at 106 degrees from the M 7.0 in the Molucca Sea today and at 102 degrees from the M 7.6 in Michoacan, Mexico of September 19, 2022 and may have been promoted by energy from that source." (January 18, 19 2023)

 

This unique activity in Malta was likely promoted by the equally unusual new moon of January 21-22, 2023, at the closest approach to earth in nearly 1000 years. This was described in previous summaries as:

 

"The new moon will arrive on January 21, 2023 at 20:53 UT. Longitudes which are at sub-solar conditions (local solar noon) at this time are near 135 West while those at local solar midnight are near 45 East longitude. In the west these include most of the coastline of North America from Alaska to California and portions of the East Pacific Rise while in the east the areas of Iran, Eastern Turkey, eastern Africa, and central Asia are included. These are the regions most likely to see substantial tidal triggering in the next week. Other areas may also see triggering with this new moon tidal alignment especially areas where SFE is also active. Tidally triggered events are most likely to occur new local solar midnight or noon. This is a super-moon that is the closest to the earth of any approach since the year 1030 with the next such approach 353 years from now. Tides are related to the third power of the distance, so even a small reduction in distance and have a considerable effect on tidal stress and subsequent tidally related seismicity. Likelihood of a strong to major tidally promoted earthquake in the next week are considered moderate to high." (January 18-22, 2023)

 

A C7 Solar flare was completing its life when this earthquake occurred in  Malta and may have helped promoted this event. An M 4.6 earthquake in Fiji near the antipode of Malta occurred about 7 seconds prior to the quake in Malta and may also have been triggered by SFE from this solar flare (see flare listings below).

 

Forecast 150170 had expected today's activity in Malta was likely within about

25 km around January 22, 2023. This epicenter is at 148 degrees from the M 7.0 in  Vanuatu of January 8 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 22JAN2023 13:56:23  34.9N   14.1E ML=3.4  EMSC   CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN SEA

O: 22JAN2023 14:21:13  34.9N   14.2E ML=3.5  EMSC   CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN SEA

O: 23JAN2023 10:37:53  35.0N   14.2E Mw=5.1  EMSC   MALTA REGION                 

O: 23JAN2023 10:37:52  35.0N   14.2E mw=5.1  ANSS   SSW of Qrendi Malta

P: 22JAN2023 150170    35.0N   14.0E 3.0-4.6 AAAAA  Mediterranean/Sicily       

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.1 in the Volcano Islands, Japan. The last earthquake in the Volcano Islands with equal or larger magnitude was an M 5.2 more than a year ago on December 27, 2021. The last earthquake of significantly larger magnitude in the Volcano Islands occurred as an M 5.6 about 200 km north of today's epicenter on November 11, 2020. Today's event occurred within minutes of local solar noon and was probably promoted by high tidal stresses with the new moon. Forecast 150145 had expected today's event within about 50 km was likely in the Volcano Islands around January 27, 2023. This epicenter is at 103 degrees from the M 7.6 in Michoacan, Mexico of September 19, 2022 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 23JAN2023 02:59:41  23.5N  143.0E mb=5.2  EMSC   VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

P: 27JAN2023 150145    23.0N  143.0E 4.0-5.8 BAAAA  Volcano Islands            

 

Enhanced seismicity in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico also continued today. This included two earthquakes at different epicenters of M 3.9 in Puerto Rico which NEIC reported was felt with intensity IV in Puerto Rico at Hormigueros and Lajas and II-III in San German, Sabana, Mayaguez, Cabo Rojo, Las Marias, and Guanica among other communities. This follows an M 4.0 yesterday in Puerto Rico and a strong swarm in the Virgin Islands in the past two days. These may be related to the M 6.2 in Guadeloupe of January 20, 2023. Forecasts 150124 and 150111 had expected this activity within these areas was likely around January 22-24, 2023. This activity is at 146 degrees from the M 7.6 in New Guinea of September 10, 2022 and may have been promoted by energy from this source.

 

O: 23JAN2023 01:17:47  18.0N   67.0W Md=3.0  EMSC   PUERTO RICO REGION

O: 22JAN2023 15:13:24  18.1N   67.0W Md=3.9  EMSC   PUERTO RICO

O: 23JAN2023 03:05:19  17.9N   66.9W Md=3.6  EMSC   PUERTO RICO REGION           

P: 22JAN2023 150124    19.0N   67.0W 3.4-5.4 ABAAA  Puerto Rico                

 

O: 22JAN2023 14:35:13  18.8N   65.5W Md=3.4  EMSC   PUERTO RICO REGION

O: 22JAN2023 16:43:29  19.0N   65.1W Md=3.4  EMSC   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

O: 23JAN2023 06:37:03  19.5N   65.7W Md=3.9  EMSC   PUERTO RICO REGION           

P: 24JAN2023 150111    19.0N   66.0W 3.0-5.3 AAAAA  Leeward Islands            

 

An earthquake of M 4.9 also occurred today in the Loyalty Islands. It was not reported felt in that remote area. After a strong series of earthquakes in the Loyalty Islands during 2022, the area has been relatively quiet for the past month following an M 6.0 on December 28, 2022 so the occurrence of today's M 4.9 is of some regional significance. It may have been promoted by the passage of Tropical Cyclone Irene (10P) in this region in the past two days as noted in earlier summaries as:

 

"TC 10P continued today in the area of the Loyalty Islands with winds up to 45 kts. It is expected to track to the  east and south and may  trigger some seismicity in the region of Vanuatu and the Loyalty Islands while in the region." (January 19-21, 2023)

 

Forecast 150301 had expected today's event within about 100 km of this epicenter was likely around January 24, 2023.

 

O: 23JAN2023 08:09:08  22.8S  171.7E mb=4.9  EMSC   SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS 

P: 24JAN2023 150301    22.0S  172.0E 4.0-5.5 AAAAA  Loyalty Islands            

 

The strongest solar flare of the day was a respectable  M1.6 (#2870) which maximized  near 1700 UT. Earthquakes near the maximum of this flare occurred in the Northern California aftershock zone (M 2.8) and in the San Francisco Bay area of California (M 2.4) and an earlier event in San Francisco followed the other M-class solar flare today - #2790.  An aftershock in the Banda Sea of M 4.6 also occurred at the height of this flare. These represent typical (at this time) SFE-related seismicity. Forecasts 149890 and 150159 had expected enhanced seismicity in the San Francisco area in late January, 2023.

 

 

O: 22JAN2023 13:36:12  37.4N  122.2W Md=2.1  EMSC   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.

O: 22JAN2023 16:59:50  37.4N  122.2W Md=2.4  EMSC   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.

P: 18JAN2023 149890    37.2N  122.1W 2.5-4.8 BAAAA  Central California         

P: 28JAN2023 150159    37.3N  121.6W 2.5-4.7 CAAAA  Central California         

 

The earthquakes in San Francisco were reported by NEIC to have been felt with intensity II in Portola Valley, Los Altos, Redwood City, La Honda, Loma Mar and Vallejo, California.

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

#------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2790       1212   1226      1234   M1.1      (January 22, 2023)   1.2E-02  

2870       1649   1702      1710   M1.6      (January 22, 2023)   1.2E-02  

 

 

MODERATE QUAKES SHAKE LEBANON AND SYRIA

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 21, 2023

 

Several unusual earthquakes also shook the Lebanon-Syria border region today. The largest of these of M 4.4 and 4.2 were felt with maximum intensity Vin Syria at Talkalah and IV in Lebanon. Lesser shaking occurred in Syria at Hims, Tarus and in Lebanon at B'abda and Bayrut, Jabal. This is the strongest earthquake near Lebanon within about 200 km of these epicenters since an M 4.4 on November 30, 2020 about 100 km northeast of this epicenter. The last event listed in the Lebanon-Syria border region occurred on November 26, 2020 about 150 km southeast of today's epicenter with M 4.1, the only such event in the past 2.5 years in this region. No earthquakes of M>=4.4 have occurred within about 100 km of today's epicenters in at least 35 years, so the coordination with the closest lunar approach to the earth in nearly 1000 years cannot be dismissed as coincidence.  It is located near the longitude of maximum stress with the current new moon and was probably related to The tidal forecast for this new moon has been previously reviewed in this summary as:

 

"The new moon will arrive on January 21, 2023 at 20:53 UT. Longitudes which are at sub-solar conditions (local solar noon) at this time are near 135 West while those at local solar midnight are near 45 East longitude. In the west these include most of the coastline of North America from Alaska to California and portions of the East Pacific Rise while in the east the areas of Iran, Eastern Turkey, eastern Africa, and central Asia are included. These are the regions most likely to see substantial tidal triggering in the next week. Other areas may also see triggering with this new moon tidal alignment especially areas where SFE is also active. Tidally triggered events are most likely to occur new local solar midnight or noon. This is a super-moon that is the closest to the earth of any approach since the year 1030 with the next such approach 353 years from now. Tides are related to the third power of the distance, so even a small reduction in distance and have a considerable effect on tidal stress and subsequent tidally related seismicity. Likelihood of a strong to major tidally promoted earthquake in the next week are considered moderate to high." (January 18-21, 2023)

 

Forecast 150196 had expected today's event in this area to the west of this epicenter was likely around January 26, 2023. This activity is located at  145 degrees from recent strong earthquakes in Tonga an Fiji and  at 103 degrees from the M 6.4 in Northern California of December 20, 2022 and may be related to energy from those sources. Readers may recall that the M 7.2 in  the Molucca Sea of January 18, 2023 was also at 103 degrees from the  M 6.4 in Northern California.

 

O: 21JAN2023 14:27:53  34.7N   36.3E ML=4.2  EMSC   LEBANON - SYRIA REGION

O: 21JAN2023 13:31:58  34.7N   36.4E mb=4.4  EMSC   LEBANON - SYRIA REGION       

P: 26JAN2023 150196    34.0N   33.0E 3.5-5.0 BACAA  Turkey                     

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.7-5.8 in the Reykjanes Ridge region of the Northern Mid-Atlantic. It followed several foreshocks but was not reported felt in this remote oceanic area. This epicenter is about 300 km north of recent strong seismicity in the Reykjanes Ridge and is probably separate from that swarm.  These events occurred conjointly with the new moon (see above). Movements of magma associated with regional tidal stresses could have triggered this activity at this time. The last earthquake of M>=5.7 within about 200 km of today's epicenter occurred as an M 5.9 on September 10, 2017 and prior to that an M 5.7 on January 18, 2005 - only such regional events in the past 35 years. At the time of the M 5.9 in 2017 this summary noted:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.9 in the Reykjanes Ridge south of Iceland. This is a remote area and this earthquake was not reported felt. This epicenter was near local solar noon when the X8.3 solar flare occurred several hours earlier. Solar Flare effects (SFE) from that event probably helped promote a larger magnitude for this earthquake than typical. The largest events within about 200 km of this epicenter in the past 25 years have been  of M 5.5-5.7, the last of which was an M 5.5 on October 6, 2011. The other event in the region of M 5.7 occurred on October 6 and 7, 2002." (September 11, 2017)

 

Forecast 149985 had expected today's activity was likely within about 50 km of these epicenters most likely to occur around January 20, 2023. Like the quakes in Lebanon, this activity is located at 142-145 degrees from recent strong earthquakes in Tonga an Fiji and may be related to energy from those sources.

 

O: 21JAN2023 19:20:27  57.5N   33.3W Mw=5.1  EMSC   REYKJANES RIDGE

O: 21JAN2023 19:22:18  57.5N   33.4W mb=4.8  EMSC   REYKJANES RIDGE

O: 21JAN2023 19:49:29  57.5N   33.4W Mw=5.7  EMSC   REYKJANES RIDGE

O: 21JAN2023 22:35:31  57.4N   33.5W Mw=5.2  EMSC   REYKJANES RIDGE              

P: 20JAN2023 149985    57.0N   33.0W 4.0-5.6 AAAAA  North Mid-Atlantic Ridge   

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.8 in the western Fox Islands, Aleutians, Alaska. It was not reported felt in this remote area. This event occurred with the new moon and was likely promoted by energy related to this source. It is the largest earthquake in the Fox Islands since an M 4.9 on December 5, 2022  These are probably regional aftershocks of an M 5.5 of November 21, 2022 which also occurred with the new moon. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.5 in the Fox  Islands, Aleutians. Like the events in the Solomon Islands, this epicenter is located near the longitude of maximum tidal stress with the new moon (see above).

 

...

 

The last earthquake in the Fox Islands within about 200 km of today's epicenter was an M 6.6 and 6.8  on January 11, 2022." (November 22, 2022)

 

Forecast 150251 had expected today's event in the Fox Islands was likely in late

January, 2023. It is located at the third node (120 degrees) from the M 6.8 in Argentina of January 18, 2023 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 22JAN2023 03:27:42  53.5N  169.5W mb=4.8  EMSC   FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

P: 21JAN2023 150251    53.7N  167.0W 3.5-4.9 AABAA  Fox Islands, Aleutians     

P: 29JAN2023 150251    52.4N  169.4W 3.5-4.9 CAAAA  Fox Islands, Aleutians     

 

 

Moderate earthquakes of M 3.4 also occurred off the coast of Baja California

and in the northern Gulf of California today. The events off Baja California occurred within minutes of local solar noon and were probably promoted by tidal stresses with this alignment. Forecast 150183 had expected this activity was likely around January 25.

 

O: 21JAN2023 18:48:10  30.6N  116.3W ML=3.4  EMSC   OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO

O: 21JAN2023 19:46:02  30.9N  116.2W ML=3.4  EMSC   OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXI

P: 25JAN2023 150183    30.9N  116.3W 2.5-4.6 BAAAA  So. California             

 

An earthquake of M 4.2 also occurred today in the northern Gulf of California. It was preceded by foreshocks of M 3.4 and 3.9. The last light to moderate activity in this area occurred on January 14, also near local solar noon. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

"The area of the northern Gulf of California is often active with high solar activity but has been relatively quiet in recent weeks during the aftershock sequence offshore Baja California which showed no signs of activity today. The epicenter was near local solar noon at the time of the flare and earthquake, a time when SFE and tidal triggering is elevated.  The last earthquake of M>=3.6 within about 100 km of today's M 3.6 was an M  4.4 on September 27, 2021 and prior to that an M 4.4 on December 12, 2019.  Forecast 149913 had expected today's event within about 50 km was likely around January 16, 2023." (January 15, 2023) 

 

O: 21JAN2023 10:25:06  30.6N  114.1W ML=3.9  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 21JAN2023 10:28:57  30.6N  114.0W ML=3.4  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 21JAN2023 13:02:50  30.4N  113.9W ML=4.2  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA           

P: 16JAN2023 149913    30.2N  114.1W 2.0-3.9 BAAAA  SW U.S.A                   

 

 

MAJOR EARTHQUAKE IN ARGENTINA FOLLOWS STRONG GUADELOUPE EVENT

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 20, 2023

 

 

A strong to major earthquake of M 6.8 occurred beneath Santiago del Estero,  Argentina at deep focal depth today. As with most deep focus earthquakes, this event was widely felt with light intensity (II-III) within about 1000 km of the epicenter. NEIC reported intensity II-III in Argentina in Tucuman, Jujuy, La Rioja, San Juan and Santiago del Estero and in Chile at Calama, Antofagasta, Iquique, San Antonio and in Campinas, Sao Paulo, Brazil. GUC reported this earthquake of M 6.7 was felt in Chile with intensity  IV in  Tarapaca in Camina, Huara; III in Iquique,Alto Hospicio, El Loa, La Tirana, Pozo Almonte; in  Antofagasta with II in Maria Elena, Tocopilla and Calama and in Arica and Parinacota with III in Arica, Cuya, II in Codpa, Pocon Chile, Chile. This earthquake occurred with the New Moon of January 21, 2023 as noted in this summary as:

 

"The new moon will arrive on January 21, 2023 at 20:53 UT. Longitudes which are at sub-solar conditions (local solar noon) at this time are near 135 West while those at local solar midnight are near 45 East longitude. In the west these include most of the coastline of North America from Alaska to California and portions of the East Pacific Rise while in the east the areas of Iran, Eastern Turkey, eastern Africa, and central Asia are included. These are the regions most likely to see substantial tidal triggering in the next week. Other areas may also see triggering with this new moon tidal alignment especially areas where SFE is also active. Tidally triggered events are most likely to occur new local solar midnight or noon. This is a super-moon that is the closest to the earth of any approach since the year 1030 with the next such approach 353 years from now. Tides are related to the third power of the distance, so even a small reduction in distance and have a considerable effect on tidal stress and subsequent tidally related seismicity. Likelihood of a strong to major tidally promoted earthquake in the next week are considered moderate to high." (January 18-20, 2023)

 

This area had been expected to see enhanced seismicity at this time as reported in the previous issue of this summary:

 

 

"The new moon could also enhance seismicity in the region of South America. The unusually large events in the Banda Sea and other areas of Indonesia in the  past several days are near 144 degrees from central and southern Chile and

Argentina and could promote strong activity in this area at this time. The strongest solar flare of the day occurred beginning about 10:00 UT and lasting through about 11:30 UT (flares 1720 - 1770) and was associated with light earthquake at depth in Argentina and Hindu Kush, Afghanistan which may have been promoted by SFE from these flares. The possibility of a strong earthquake in this area at this time was focused on a week ago in this summary on January 12, 2023 when an M 5.5-5.8 occurred in Coquimbo, Chile as:

 

"An earthquake of M 3.9 was also located northwest of New Zealand today. This is an unusual epicenter and occasionally occurs before strong earthquakes along the South American coast. The last earthquake with about 400 km of this epicenter with M>=3.9 was an M 5.4 on February 24, 2010 and before that events of M 4.9 and 5.0 on April 16, 1993. No earthquakes have been located with M>=3.9 within about 300 km of today's epicenter in at least 35 years. The events of April, 1993 were accompanied by an M 6.9 in Tonga on the same date and an M 6.8 in Mindanao three days later on April 19, 1993. At the time of the earthquake of February 24, 2010, this summary noted the coincidence with possible major earthquakes in Chile " (January 12, 2023)

 

Two earthquakes occurred today near 144 degrees from the M 7.6 in the Banda Sea of January 9, 2023 - both in Argentina in the areas of Salta and Cordoba. Forecast 150024 and 150025 had expected today's activity in mid-January. The M 4.6 in Salta, Argentina was located at 144 degrees from the Banda Sea quake and was probably promoted by energy from that source." (January 19-20, 2023)

 

The last earthquake of M>=6.8 within about 300 km of today's event in Argentina was an M 6.8 on May 28, 2012 and an M 7.0 on January 1, 2011. At that time this summary noted:

 

 

"A strong earthquake of M 7.0 hit deep below Argentina and Chile today. This earthquake occurred 10 degrees south of the geomagnetic equator in the region and was probably triggered by effects from the strong geomagnetic storm three days ago. We had expected this type of activity at the time of the storm when we stated in this report:

 

" There is accumulating evidence that geomagnetic storms do trigger earthquakes, possibly through induction of telluric electric currents below the ionospheric ring currents in auroral areas and about 10 degrees either side of the geomagnetic equator." (December, 2010)

 

"A series of moderately large earthquakes also hit at 10 degrees from the geomagnetic equator suggesting triggering from the geomagnetic storm" (December 25, 2010)

 

"The disturbance was sudden and strong and could trigger strong seismicity in the next several days." (December 29-30, 2010)

 

...

 

The last earthquake of greater magnitude in this region of Argentina was an

M 7.3 twenty years ago near the same epicenter as that of today on June 23, 1991. Strong earthquakes of M 7.0-7.1 hit north 500 km north of this on January 23, 1997 and 200 km south of this epicenter on April 23, 2000, all at deep or intermediate epicenters." (January 1, 2011)

 

Forecasts 150025 and 150299 had expected today's activity in mid-January in this area of Argentina. This earthquake is located at 144 degrees from the M 7.6 in the Banda Sea of January 9, 2023 and at 101-103 degrees from the recent major earthquakes in Tonga and Fiji and  at the sixth node (60 degrees) from the M 7.6 in Michoacan, Mexico of September 19, 2022 and was probably promoted by energy from those sources.

 

O: 20JAN2023 22:09:38  26.8S   63.1W Mw=6.8  EMSC   SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO, ARGENTINA

O: 20JAN2023 22:09     26.8S   63.7W mb=6.7  GUC    Tarapaca in Camina, Huara; III

P: 13JAN2023 150025    28.0S   64.0W 4.0-5.8 CBAAA  Argentina                  

P: 22JAN2023 150299    23.0S   65.0W 4.0-5.7 ACBAA  Argentina                  

 

A strong earthquake of M 6.2 also occurred in the area of Guadeloupe today where it was widely felt. NEIC reported maximum intensity IV in Guadeloupe in Basse-Terre at Le Gosier, Saint-Claude, Baie-Mahault, Petit-Bourg and II-III in Bouillant, Point-Noire, Sante-Rose, Lamentin, Terre-de-Bas and in Montserrat. This earthquake occurred at intermediate focal depth of 166 km. Several foreshocks hit the area in the past week. The last earthquake in the West Indies within about 300 km of today's event of M 6.2 with equal or greater magnitude was an M 7.4 on November 29, 2007. Like today's earthquake it occurred at an intermediate depth of 156 km about 250 km southeast of today's epicenter. The last and only event within about 100 km of this epicenter with equal or larger magnitude in the past 35 years was an M 6.2 on November 21, 2004. At the time of this event this summary noted:

 

 

"Today an earthquake of M 6.0-6.3 occurred near the antipode of that event at 15N 61W in the Guadeloupe and Dominica regions of the Leeward Islands, Caribbean. Reports from the Associated Press indicate that a child was killed by a fallen wall and many homes were destroyed while power outages affected thousands of people. The earthquake was felt as far as Antigua and Barbuda. Radio Caraibes reported at least 8 homes destroyed and 25 damaged in Terra-de-Bas on Guadeloupe. A woman suffered a heart attack on Guadeloupe and others were evacuated. Homes were also damaged on Dominica and up to 150 were being held in shelters. In Portsmouth a church was damaged when a facade collapsed. A strong storm preceded the earthquake and caused flooding and further landslides while making damage assessment and movement throughout the area difficult. The last event of M>=5.5 in the Leeward Islands region (12-16N 55-65W) occurred on Jan. 5, 2001. The last earthquake which was larger than today's event according to NEIC data occurred nearly 10 years ago on March 8, 1995 (M 6.3) and ten years earlier than that on March 16, 1985 with M 6.8. A similar sized earthquake occurred near today's event on Sept. 24, 1996. The strongest earthquake in the region in the past 50 years was an M 7.2 on Dec. 25, 1969." (November 21, 2004)

 

A month later the M 9.3 hit near the antipode of this event in Sumatra killing more than 250,000 and creating a Indian Ocean-wide tsunami.

 

Forecast 150110 had expected today's event was likely within about 100 km around January 27, 2023. Both the Guadeloupe event and the M 6.8 in Argentina occurred at 62-63 degrees west longitude.

 

O: 20JAN2023 11:23:41  16.1N   62.2W Mw=6.2  EMSC   GUADELOUPE REGION, LEEWARD ISL

P: 27JAN2023 150110    17.0N   62.0W 3.0-5.5 CAAAA  Leeward Islands            

 

A strong series of earthquakes followed the events in Guadeloupe and Argentina early on January 21 in the Virgin Islands. This series was probably promoted by stress redistribution from the M 6.2 in Guadeloupe. It included a dozen events of M>=3.7 including one of M 4.0 and one of M 3.7.  This swarm occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and was probably promoted by high tidal stresses associated with the historic new moon which maximize near this hour (see above).

 

 

NEIC reported this earthquake of M 4.0 in Puerto Rico was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of Puerto Rico in Luquillo.  Forecasts 149840 and 150111 had expected today's activity in the Virgin Islands was likely within about 100 km around January 19-24, 2023. This activity is at 145 degrees from the M 7.6 in New Guinea of September 10, 2022 and at the third node (120 degrees) from the major earthquakes in Tonga and Fiji of recent months and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.

 

O: 21JAN2023 05:13:16  19.2N   65.0W ML=3.2  EMSC   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

O: 21JAN2023 05:28:15  19.2N   65.0W ML=3.0  EMSC   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

O: 21JAN2023 03:49:20  19.3N   64.9W Md=3.3  EMSC   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

O: 21JAN2023 03:50:45  19.3N   64.8W Md=3.2  EMSC   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

O: 21JAN2023 04:05:37  19.3N   64.8W Md=3.7  EMSC   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

O: 21JAN2023 04:05:37  19.3N   64.8W Md=4.0  ANSS   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

O: 21JAN2023 05:10:08  19.3N   64.8W Md=3.2  EMSC   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

O: 21JAN2023 05:35:26  19.3N   64.9W ML=3.3  EMSC   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

O: 21JAN2023 05:53:32  19.3N   64.8W Md=3.2  EMSC   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

O: 21JAN2023 04:51:03  19.4N   64.8W Md=3.4  EMSC   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

O: 21JAN2023 05:01:36  19.2N   65.0W ML=3.7  EMSC   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION        

O: 21JAN2023 03:55:15  19.6N   65.7W Md=3.2  EMSC   PUERTO RICO REGION

P: 19JAN2023 149848    18.0N   65.0W 3.0-4.9 ABAAA  Leeward Islands             

P: 24JAN2023 150111    19.0N   66.0W 3.0-5.3 BAAAA  Leeward Islands            

 

 

Light earthquakes continued in the San Francisco Bay area of California today. The largest of these was an M 2.9 which NEIC reported was felt with intensity II-III in Portola Valley, Palo Alto, Los Altos, Menlo Park, Atherton, Redwood City, La Honda, Redwood City among other communities. In the previous summaries it had been noted in this regard:

 

 

"A series of light earthquakes occurred in the region of Central California today. Among these was an M 3.1 near New Idria. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II-III in San Jose, Los Altos, Palo Alto, but these may refer to several light earthquakes in the San Francisco, California today. The events in San Francisco included an M 2.6 felt with intensity II-III in Menlo Park, Atherton, Redwood City, Portola Valley, Palo Alto, Moss Beach and Berkeley and an M 2.9 south of San Francisco felt with intensity II-III in California at  Portola Valley, Palo Alto, Los Altos, Menlo Park, Redwood City, Stanford, La Honda, Atherton among others. An M 3.6 was also widely felt north of San Francisco today. ...

 

This regional activation had been anticipated in the previous issue of this summary as:

 

"Recent earthquakes of M 7.6 in the Banda Sea and M 7.0 in the Molucca Sea  have been occurring at 103-106 degrees from the coast of Central California in the vicinity south of San Francisco, California and off the coast of northern California. This area is also on the edge of being strongly influenced by the upcoming new moon as it is near the longitude of maximum tidal stress with that alignment. As such enhanced seismicity in this area is likely in the next several days. The aftershock zone of the M 6.4 of December 20, 2022 is included in this watch area and a moderate aftershock is possible in this area in the next week." (January 18-19, January 20, 2023)

 

A moderate to large earthquake is possible in the region of Central California with the current new moon but this is unlikely unless a strong X-class solar flare should occur in the next several days as occurred with the Loma Prieta quake of October, 1989.

 

Forecast 149891 had expected today's activity within about 25 km was likely around January 17, 2023.

 

O: 21JAN2023 04:57:58  37.3N  122.1W Md=2.2  EMSC   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.

O: 21JAN2023 00:55:49  37.4N  122.2W Md=2.9  EMSC   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.

O: 21JAN2023 00:57:25  37.4N  122.2W Md=2.1  EMSC   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.

O: 21JAN2023 02:52:20  37.4N  122.2W Md=2.4  EMSC   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.

O: 20JAN2023 07:10:58  37.5N  122.3W Md=2.6  EMSC   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.

O: 20JAN2023 10:37:49  37.8N  122.1W Md=2.3  EMSC   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.

P: 17JAN2023 149891    37.9N  122.0W 2.5-4.8 BAAAA  Central California         

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada outside Alaska today was an M 4.3 in Northern California. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity V in Orick with IV in Orleans and Salyer, California. Intensity II-III was also felt in California at Trinidad, Hoopa, Blue Lake, McKinleyville, Willow Creek, Arcata, Bayside. This followed a similar event of M 3.6 which was felt in Northern California with intensity II-III in Trinidad, Hoopa, McKinleyville, Orick, Arcata, Eureka and Fortuna. This earthquake of M 4.3 occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and was probably triggered by strong tidal stresses with the new moon which maximize near this hour. The Foreshock of M 3.6 occurred within minutes of local solar noon and was also likely triggered by high tidal stresses.  This appears to be  a regional aftershock of the M 6.4 a month ago in Northern California about  100 km south of this epicenter. The last earthquake of M>=4.3 within northern California and within about 50 km of today's epicenter was an M 5.6 on February 13, 2012. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

 

"This is the strongest earthquake in this region of Northern California in  more than 22 years. The last earthquake within 200 km of larger size was and M 5.9 on February 4, 2010, an aftershock of the M 6.5 off the coast of Northern California which occurred on January 10, 2010. These, in turn were the largest events in this region of California since September 1993." (February 13, 2012)

 

Forecasts 149953 and 149955 had expected this activity was likely in mid-January in this area.

 

O: 19JAN2023 20:30:07  41.1N  123.9W Mw=3.6  EMSC   NORTHERN CALIFORNIA          

O: 20JAN2023 08:01:14  41.1N  123.9W mw=4.3  ANSS   16km WSW of Weitchpec

O: 20JAN2023 08:01:13  41.1N  123.9W Mw=4.3  EMSC   NORTHERN CALIFORNIA          

P: 15JAN2023 149953    40.0N  123.0W 2.5-4.5 BBAAA  Northern California        

P: 17JAN2023 149955    40.6N  124.9W 2.5-4.8 BAAAA  Off Coast of No. Calif     

P: 22JAN2023 150226    40.3N  124.7W 2.5-4.8 AAAAA  Off Coast of No. Calif     

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was again an M 4.6 in the Unimak Island region of the Aleutians of Alaska. When a similar event occurred yesterday, this summary in the previous issue noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.8 in the Unimak Island area of the Alaskan Aleutians. NEIC reported it may have been felt in this remote area. This earthquake occurred within about an hour of local solar midnight and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. The last earthquake of M>=4.8 in the Unimak Island region was an M 4.8 on January 8, 2023. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today occurred in the Unimak Island region of the Alaskan Aleutian Islands with M 4.8. This event appears to have been promoted by strong tidal stresses associated with the full moon of January 6 as it occurred near local solar midnight at the longitude of maximum tidal stress ( 165 West longitude) with that full moon (see above and under "TIDAL" section in this and previous issues for tidal forecast). This earthquake was not reported felt in this remote area. The last earthquake in the Unimak Island area of larger magnitude than M 4.8 was an M 5.1 on September 9, 2021 and prior to that an M 5.1 on January 11, 2021. The only other such event in  the Unimak Island region in the past 2.5 years was an M 5.0 on November 4, 2020." (January 9, 2023)

 

Forecast 149991 had expected today's event in mid-January within about 10 km of this epicenter." (January 20, 2023)

 

 

O: 21JAN2023 04:07:07  53.3N  163.5W mb=4.6  EMSC   UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 

P: 23JAN2023 150264    52.5N  163.7W 3.5-5.1 AAAAA  Unimak Islands, Aleutians  

 

 

NEW SUPER-MOON MAY BRING ENHANCED SEISMICITY

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 19, 2023

 

 

The new moon of January 21, 2023 could bring enhanced seismicity due to its

uniquely close distance to the earth. As discussed in this and previous summaries this new moon is the closest to earth in nearly a thousand years:

 

"The new moon will arrive on January 21, 2023 at 20:53 UT. Longitudes which are at sub-solar conditions (local solar noon) at this time are near 135 West while those at local solar midnight are near 45 East longitude. In the west these include most of the coastline of North America from Alaska to California and portions of the East Pacific Rise while in the east the areas of Iran, Eastern Turkey, eastern Africa, and central Asia are included. These are the regions most likely to see substantial tidal triggering in the next week. Other areas may also see triggering with this new moon tidal alignment especially areas where SFE is also active. Tidally triggered events are most likely to occur new local solar midnight or noon. This is a super-moon that is the closest to the earth of any approach since the year 1030 with the next such approach 353 years from now. Tides are related to the third power of the distance, so even a small reduction in distance and have a considerable effect on tidal stress and subsequent tidally related seismicity. Likelihood of a strong to major tidally promoted earthquake in the next week are considered moderate to high." (January 18-20, 2023)

 

A series of light earthquakes occurred in the region of Central California today. Among these was an M 3.1 near New Idria. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II-III in San Jose, Los Altos, Palo Alto, but these may refer to several light earthquakes in the San Francisco, California today. The events in San Francisco included an M 2.6 felt with intensity II-III in Menlo Park, Atherton, Redwood City, Portola Valley, Palo Alto, Moss Beach and Berkeley and an M 2.9 south of San Francisco felt with intensity II-III in California at

Portola Valley, Palo Alto, Los Altos, Menlo Park, Redwood City, Stanford, La Honda, Atherton among others. An M 3.6 was also widely felt north of San Francisco today. NEIC reported this earthquake was felt with maximum intensity IV in Cazadero with II-III shaking in Cloverdale, Geyserville, Annapolis, Guerneville, Healdsburg, Forestville and Windsor, California. Several light earthquakes including an M 3.3 were also felt south of San Francisco, California today near local solar noon. The M 3.3 was reported by NEIC to have been felt with intensity II-III in San Juan Bautista, Salinas, Hollister, Los Banos, San Jose, Los Altos and Richmond among other communities. This was an aftershock of an M 3.6 several hours earlier which NEIC reported was felt with maximum intensity IV in San Juan Bautista and II-III in Salinas, Aromas, Gilroy, Watsonville, California. An M 3.4 was also felt in Central California near the Nevada border. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II-III in Inyokern, Onyx, California.

 

This regional activation had been anticipated in the previous issue of this summary as:

 

"Recent earthquakes of M 7.6 in the Banda Sea and M 7.0 in the Molucca Sea  have been occurring at 103-106 degrees from the coast of Central California in the vicinity south of San Francisco, California and off the coast of northern California. This area is also on the edge of being strongly influenced by the upcoming new moon as it is near the longitude of maximum tidal stress with that alignment. As such enhanced seismicity in this area is likely in the next several days. The aftershock zone of the M 6.4 of December 20, 2022 is included in this watch area and a moderate aftershock is possible in this area in the next week." (January 18-19, 2023)

 

Forecasts 150189, 149888, 149890  and 150158 had expected this Activity was likely around January 18-22 within about 50 km of these epicenters. These events are located at 102-104 degrees from the M 7.2 in the Molucca Sea of January 18, 2023 and at 106 degrees from the M 7.2 in the Banda Sea of January 9, 2023 and were probably promoted by energy from those sources.

 

O: 19JAN2023 14:14:38  35.9N  117.7W Ml=2.0  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

O: 19JAN2023 13:58:39  35.9N  117.7W ML=3.1  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA           

P: 22JAN2023 150189    35.6N  118.4W 2.5-4.7 BAAAA  So. California             

 

O: 19JAN2023 20:24:16  36.6N  121.0W Md=2.1  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

O: 20JAN2023 07:15:40  36.5N  120.7W ML=2.9  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA            

P: 18JAN2023 149888    36.6N  120.7W 2.5-4.5 AAAAA  Central California         

 

O: 19JAN2023 19:21:41  36.8N  121.5W ML=3.0  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

O: 19JAN2023 20:09:34  36.8N  121.5W Md=2.5  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

O: 19JAN2023 20:17:59  36.8N  121.5W Md=2.4  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

O: 19JAN2023 17:15:55  36.8N  121.5W ML=3.5  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA           

P: 18JAN2023 149890    37.2N  122.1W 2.5-4.8 AAAAA  Central California         

P: 22JAN2023 150158    36.8N  121.4W 2.5-4.6 AAAAA  Central California         

 

O: 20JAN2023 06:25:57  37.4N  122.2W Md=2.0  EMSC   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.

O: 20JAN2023 07:10:58  37.5N  122.3W Md=2.6  EMSC   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.

O: 20JAN2023 07:09:07  37.3N  122.3W ML=2.8  EMSC   NORTHERN CALIFORNIA          

P: 18JAN2023 149890    37.2N  122.1W 2.5-4.8 AAAAA  Central California         

 

 

The new moon could also enhance seismicity in the region of South America. The unusually large events in the Banda Sea and other areas of Indonesia in the  past several days are near 144 degrees from central and southern Chile and Argentina and could promote strong activity in this area at this time. The strongest solar flare of the day occurred beginning about 10:00 UT and lasting through about 11:30 UT (flares 1720 - 1770) and was associated with light earthquake at depth in Argentina and Hindu Kush, Afghanistan which may have been promoted by SFE from these flares. The possibility of a strong earthquake in this area at this time was focused on a week ago in this summary on January 12, 2023 when an M 5.5-5.8 occurred in Coquimbo, Chile as:

 

"An earthquake of M 3.9 was also located northwest of New Zealand today. This is an unusual epicenter and occasionally occurs before strong earthquakes along the South American coast. The last earthquake with about 400 km of this epicenter with M>=3.9 was an M 5.4 on February 24, 2010 and before that events of M 4.9 and 5.0 on April 16, 1993. No earthquakes have been located with M>=3.9 within about 300 km of today's epicenter in at least 35 years. The events of April, 1993 were accompanied by an M 6.9 in Tonga on the same date and an M 6.8 in Mindanao three days later on April 19, 1993. At the time of the earthquake of February 24, 2010, this summary noted the coincidence with possible major earthquakes in Chile " (January 12, 2023)

 

Two earthquakes occurred today near 144 degrees from the M 7.6 in the Banda Sea of January 9, 2023 - both in Argentina in the areas of Salta and Cordoba. Forecast 150024 and 150025 had expected today's activity in mid-January. The M 4.6 in Salta, Argentina was located at 144 degrees from the Banda Sea quake and was probably promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 19JAN2023 05:55:24  24.1S   66.7W mb=4.6  EMSC   SALTA, ARGENTINA             

P: 17JAN2023 150024    24.0S   67.0W 4.0-5.8 AAAAA  Argentina                  

 

O: 19JAN2023 11:29:30  31.5S   64.6W ML=3.1  EMSC   CORDOBA, ARGENTINA           

P: 13JAN2023 150025    28.0S   64.0W 4.0-5.8 CCAAA  Argentina                  

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.1 in the Hindu Kush region of Afghanistan. This may be an aftershock of an M 5.9 on January 5, 2023. At the time this summary noted this event as:

 

 

"A strong earthquake of M 5.9-6.0 also hit the region of Hindu Kush, Afghanistan today. EMSC reported it was felt with light to moderate intensity in Pakistan at Peshawar and Chitral. It was also felt as a strong and long shaker in Tajikistan in Dushanbe and Afghanistan with strong shaking at Jalalabad, Afghanistan. It was also felt in Kabul and Bagrami where it shook furniture. In Tajikistan it was lightly felt in Roghun, and in Srinagar, India among others.  This earthquake is at 103 degrees from the M 6.4 in northern California of December 20, 2022 - the last strong earthquake in the world - and was probably promoted by energy from that source. The last earthquake of M>=5.9 in the Hindu Kush region  of Afghanistan within about 200 km of today's epicenter occurred on 6.1 on December 20, 2019 and prior to that an M 6.2 on May 9, 2018." (January 6, 2023)

 

NEIC reported this earthquake of M 5.1 in Hindu Kush, Afghanistan was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of  Pakistan at Tordher, Attock, Taxila, Sammundri, Lahore, Punjab and in Islamabad. It was also felt in Tashkent, Uzbekistan at Tashkent and Ortaovul.

 

Forecast 149898 had expected today's event in Hindu Kush was likely around January 18, 2023.

 

O: 19JAN2023 11:30:43  35.6N   71.5E Mw=5.1  EMSC   HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN

P: 18JAN2023 149898    36.0N   70.0E 3.8-5.6 AAAAA  Hindu Kush/Pakistan        

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.8 in the Unimak Island area of the Alaskan Aleutians. NEIC reported it may have been felt in this remote area. This earthquake occurred within about an hour of local solar midnight and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. The last earthquake of M>=4.8 in the Unimak Island region was an M 4.8 on January 8, 2023. A the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today occurred in the Unimak Island region of the Alaskan Aleutian Islands with M 4.8. This event appears to have been promoted by strong tidal stresses associated with the full moon of January 6 as it occurred near local solar midnight at the longitude of maximum tidal stress ( 165 West longitude) with that full moon (see above and under "TIDAL" section in this and previous issues for tidal forecast). This earthquake was not reported felt in this remote area. The last earthquake in the Unimak Island area of larger magnitude than M 4.8 was an M 5.1 on September 9, 2021 and prior to that an M 5.1 on January 11, 2021. The only other such event in  the Unimak Island region in the past 2.5 years was an M 5.0 on November 4, 2020." (January 9, 2023)

 

Forecast 149991 had expected today's event in mid-January within about 10 km of this epicenter.

 

O: 19JAN2023 08:36:27  53.5N  163.5W mb=4.2  EMSC   UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA

O: 19JAN2023 11:45:12  53.6N  163.6W mb=4.8  EMSC   UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA

O: 19JAN2023 06:43:44  53.5N  163.6W mb=4.2  EMSC   UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 

P: 15JAN2023 149991    52.5N  163.7W 3.5-5.1 BAAAA  Unimak Islands, Aleutians  

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada outside Alaska today was an M 4.3 in Northern California. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity V in Orick with IV in Orleans and Salyer, California. Intensity II-III was also felt in California at Trinidad, Hoopa, Blue Lake, McKinleyville, Willow Creek, Arcata, Bayside. This followed a similar event of M 3.6 which was felt in Northern California with intensity II-III in Trinidad, Hoopa, McKinleyville, Orick, Arcata, Eureka and Fortuna. This earthquake of M 4.3 occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and was probably triggered by strong tidal stresses with the new moon which maximize near this hour. The Foreshock of M 3.6 occurred within minutes of local solar noon and was also likely triggered by high tidal stresses.  This appears to be a regional aftershock of the M 6.4 a month ago in Northern California about 100 km south of this epicenter. The last earthquake of M>=4.3 within northern California and within about 50 km of today's epicenter was an M 5.6 on February 13, 2012. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

 

"This is the strongest earthquake in this region of Northern California in

more than 22 years. The last earthquake within 200 km of larger size was and M 5.9 on February 4, 2010, an aftershock of the M 6.5 off the coast of  Northern California which occurred on January 10, 2010. These, in turn were the largest events in this region of California since September 1993." (February 13, 2012)

 

Forecasts 149953 and 149955 had expected this activity was likely in mid-January in this area.

 

O: 19JAN2023 20:30:07  41.1N  123.9W Mw=3.6  EMSC   NORTHERN CALIFORNIA          

O: 20JAN2023 08:01:14  41.1N  123.9W mw=4.3  ANSS   16km WSW of Weitchpec

O: 20JAN2023 08:01:13  41.1N  123.9W Mw=4.3  EMSC   NORTHERN CALIFORNIA          

P: 15JAN2023 149953    40.0N  123.0W 2.5-4.5 BBAAA  Northern California        

P: 17JAN2023 149955    40.6N  124.9W 2.5-4.8 BAAAA  Off Coast of No. Calif     

P: 22JAN2023 150226    40.3N  124.7W 2.5-4.8 AAAAA  Off Coast of No. Calif     

 

 

 

MODERATELY STRONG QUAKE SHAKES AZERBAIJAN, IRAN

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 18, 2023

 

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.8 in northern Iran. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity VIIII in Iran in Azerbaijan in Dilman with VII in Khoi and II-III in Merand, Tebriz, Malekan and in Nor Kesaria, Armenia.  This earthquake occurred at 45 East longitude and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses with the coming new moon as it occurred at the longitude of maximum tidal stress with that event as noted in previous issues of this summary:

 

"The new moon will arrive on January 21, 2023 at 20:53 UT. Longitudes which are at sub-solar conditions (local solar noon) at this time are near 135 West while those at local solar midnight are near 45 East longitude. In the west these include most of the coastline of North America from Alaska to California and portions of the East Pacific Rise while in the east the areas of Iran, Eastern Turkey, eastern Africa, and central Asia are included. These are the regions most likely to see substantial tidal triggering in the next week. Other areas may also see triggering with this new moon tidal alignment especially areas where SFE is also active. Tidally triggered events are most likely to occur new local solar midnight or noon. Likelihood of a strong to major tidally promoted earthquake in the next week are considered moderate to high." (January 18-19, 2023)

 

This earthquake in northwestern Iran occurred at the beginning of an M1.8 class solar flare (#1420) near local solar noon and, in addition to being tidally promoted, may also have been triggered by SFE from this flare.

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

#------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

1420       1005   1035      1120   M1.8      (January 18, 2023)   1.9E-02  

1440       1358   1407      1411   C3.3      (January 18, 2023)   2.0E-03  

 

The M 5.8 in northern Iran is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km  in Iran since an M 6.0 on February 23, 2020 and before that an M 7.4 on October 23, 2011. At the time of the M 6.0 in February, 2020 this summary noted in this regard:

 

 

"This area of Turkey-Iran border first became active on February 16, 2020 with an M 4.8 foreshock. The last earthquake within about 200 km of today's M 6.0 with equal or larger magnitude occurred on August 11, 2012 with M 6.3 and 6.4 about 200 km east of today's epicenter. The only other such event in the region in the past 30 years was an M 7.1-7.3 on October 23, 2011. Forecast 122219 had expected today's activity was likely around February 24. Today's activity is at 102-103 degrees from both the M 7.1 in Central California of July 6, 2019 ..." (February 23, 2020)

 

Forecasts 149906 and 149933 had expected enhanced seismicity in northern Iran was likely around January 15-18, 2023.

 

O: 18JAN2023 10:08:13  38.5N   45.0E Mw=5.8  EMSC   NORTHWESTERN IRAN            

P: 15JAN2023 149933    40.0N   41.0E 3.5-5.1 BBCAA  Caucasus/Caspian Sea       

P: 18JAN2023 149906    36.0N   49.0E 3.8-5.5 ACCAA  No. Iran                   

 

A moderate M 5.1 also occurred near 45 East longitude in the area of Djibouti today. A smaller foreshock preceded this event. This continues activation of this region in recent days much of which was promoted by strong solar and geomagnetic storms. Most of this including an M 5.5 on December 26, 2022 and an M 4.9 on January 9, 2023 occurred about 400 km west of today's event. The last event in Djibouti listed by EMSC was an M 3.8 on January 4, 2023.  At the time this summary noted:

 

" ... an M 3.5 occurred in Djibouti, Ethiopia today. This possibility had been discussed on December 12 as being a possible triggering point from strong solar flares at this time as:

 

"The area of Africa was unusually seismic today. Moderate earthquakes were recorded in Djibouti (M 3.5), South Africa (M 4.4) and Morocco (M 4.5). The earthquake in Djibouti may be the beginning of stronger activity in  that region and in Ethiopia. This usually peaks during high solar flare  periods as it is located on the geomagnetic equator in areas of high heat flow." (December 12, 2022, December 26, 2022)

 

The only earthquake in Djibouti with equal or larger magnitude in the past

5 years was an M 4.4 on August 31, 2020. The last of significantly larger magnitude were of M 4.7 on April 14, 2017.  The only event of M>=5 in the  area was an M 5.6 on June 17, 2012, part of a strong regional activation with the last solar active period. Forecast 149844 had expected the area was likely to see enhanced seismicity around January 18, 2023.

 

O: 18JAN2023 16:30:04  11.8N   43.2E ML=4.3  EMSC   GOLFE DE TADJOURA, DJIBOUTI  

P: 18JAN2023 149844    12.0N   40.0E 3.5-4.9 AACAA  Ethiopia                   

 

Moderate earthquakes continued in the region of Malta in the central Mediterranean Sea today. The strongest of these was an M 5.1. NEIC reported it was felt in Malta with intensity VII in San Lawrenz Gozo and Comino and IV in Birgu Inner Harbour with intensity II-III shaking in Malta at Rabat, Zabbar, Bormla, Lija, Mosta and San Pawl, il-Bahar. This activity began yesterday and was addressed at the time in this summary as:

 

"An earthquake of M 5.0 occurred near Malta in the Central Mediterranean today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity I-II in Malta at Floriana and Ta Xbiex, Inner Harbour and San Pawl il-Bahar. A foreshock of M 4.2 was felt with intensity III in Mellieha, Northern Malta. This earthquake occurred simultaneously with a C3.0 solar flare which began at the time of the M 5.0 in Malta. This earthquake of M 5.0 is the strongest within about 150 km of this epicenter in the past 30 years. An M 5.3 occurred about 200 km west of this on September 10, 1993 and near this epicenter with M 5.3 on September 29, 1992. The epicenter was within minutes of local solar midnight when the M1.8 class solar flare began (#1310) and was probably promoted by SFE associated with that flare which maximize at this hour (see flare listing above).

 

The unusual nature of this earthquake suggest that a strong aftershock sequence is likely in the next several days. Forecasts 149638 and 149900 had expected today's event in the Mediterranean south of Sicily and north of Malta was likely around January 7-14, 2023.  This activity is at 146 degrees from the M 7.0 in Vanuatu of January 8, 2023 and at 106 degrees from the M 7.0 in the Molucca Sea today and at 102 degrees from the M 7.6 in Michoacan, Mexico of September 19, 2022 and may have been promoted by energy from that source." (January 18, 2023)

 

Forecast 149900 had expected activity in the Mediterranean south of Sicily was likely in mid-January, 2023.

 

O: 18JAN2023 15:54:46  34.9N   14.3E Mw=5.1  EMSC   CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN SEA

O: 18JAN2023 17:00:13  35.0N   14.2E mb=4.7  EMSC   CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN SEA

O: 18JAN2023 08:46:17  35.2N   14.3E ML=3.6  EMSC   MALTA REGION

O: 18JAN2023 14:13:05  34.9N   14.1E ML=4.7  EMSC   CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN SEA    

P: 14JAN2023 149900    39.0N   14.0E 3.0-4.7 BCAAA  Mediterranean/Sicily       

 

Another area which may have been promoted by the M 7.6 in the Banda Sea of January 9, 2023 is the Aegean Sea of Western Turkey. This area is near the 103-105 degree range from the Banda Sea and like, the western North America region (see below) is likely to be triggered by energy from the M 7.6 mainshock in Indonesia. An M 5.0 shook this area of the Aegean Sea today. NEIC reported this earthquake of M 5.0 in the Aegean Sea, Turkey was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of the Aegean Sea, Turkey in Balikesir at Gomec and Edremit.

This is the strongest earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter since an M 5.2 on February 1, 2021 and an M 5.1 on February 20, 2019.  Forecast 149880 had expected today's event within about 50 km of this epicenter was likely around January 17, 2023.

 

O: 19JAN2023 02:22:27  39.5N   25.9E mb=5.0  EMSC   AEGEAN SEA                   

P: 17JAN2023 149880    39.0N   26.0E 3.0-4.9 AAAAA  Aegean Sea                 

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.1-4.6 in the Northwest Territories of Canada near Wrigley. It was not reported felt in this remote area. It occurred near local solar noon and may have been promoted by tidal stresses which maximize near this hour and are accentuated near this longitude by the upcoming new moon alignment of January 21 (see above and under "TIDAL" section of this summary. The last earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter with M>=4.6 occurred on October 24, 2020 with M 4.6-4.7. The only earthquake of significantly larger magnitude in this area in the past 35 years was an M 5.6 on June 10, 1990. Forecast 149744 had expected today's activity in mid-January within about 25 km of this epicenter. This epicenter is located at 103 degrees from the M 7.6 in the Banda Sea of January 9, 2023 and was probably promoted by energy from that source. Other areas of western North America are also  at this distance from the Banda Sea and could be promoted in the next several days (see below).

 

O: 18JAN2023 18:19:06  62.2N  123.9W mb=4.1  EMSC   NORTHWEST TERRITORIES, CANADA

O: 18JAN2023 18:19:06  62.2N  123.9W MB=4.6  ECAN of Wrigley, NT                 

P:  9JAN2023 149744    62.1N  124.2W 2.5-4.0 CAAAA  Northwest Terr., Canada    

 

Recent earthquakes of M 7.6 in the Banda Sea and M 7.0 in the Molucca Sea  have been occurring at 103-106 degrees from the coast of Central California in the vicinity south of San Francisco, California and off the coast of northern California. This area is also on the edge of being strongly influenced by the upcoming new moon as it is near the longitude of maximum tidal stress with that alignment. As such enhanced seismicity in this area is likely in the next several days. The aftershock zone of the M 6.4 of December 20, 2022 is included in this watch area and a moderate aftershock is possible in this area in the next week. The area, however, remained quiet today. The only light earthquake in this area was an M 2.2 near Kettleman City but it was not reported felt.

 

O: 18JAN2023 11:53:48  36.1N  120.2W MD=2.2  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA           

P: 18JAN2023 149888    36.6N  120.7W 2.5-4.5 AAAAA  Central California         

 

A moderate earthquake of M 5.0 occurred today in the Mid-Indian Ridge north of Madagascar. This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 5.6 on March 27, 2022.  This event may have been prompted by the passage of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso over this epicenter two days ago. This summary expected this reaction as:

 

 

"A tropical cyclone may be forming in the South Indian Ocean. This system is currently located at 13S 62E east of Africa with winds up to 32 kts and moving westward at 24 kts. It is unlikely to enhance local seismicity at this time." (January 17, 2023)

 

and

 

"TC 08S formed today in the area east of Northern Madagascar with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track to the  west and make landfall in Madagascar near January 19, 2023. Some triggering of seismicity in the South Indian Ocean may occur with this storm." (January 18, 2023)

 

and

 

"TC Cheneso (08S) continued today in the area east of Northern Madagascar with winds up to 55 kts. It is expected to track to the  west and make landfall in Madagascar near January 19, 2023. Some triggering of seismicity in the East African Rift Valley and in the South Indian Ocean may occur with this storm." (January 17-18, 2023)

 

Forecast 150015 had expected this event within about 150 km was likely around

January 17, 2023.

 

O: 18JAN2023 11:06:55  13.3S   66.8E mb=5.0  EMSC   MID-INDIAN RIDGE              

P: 17JAN2023 150015    15.0S   67.0E 4.0-5.5 ABAAA  So. Indian Ocean           

 

Moderate aftershocks of the M 7.0-7.1 earthquake in the Molucca Sea of January 18 also continued today. The largest of these was an M 5.5. In the previous summary it had been noted in this regard:

 

"The last strong earthquake in the Molucca Sea occurred with M 6.3 on July 10, 2021. At the time of this event this summary noted: 

 

"The largest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.3 in the Molucca Sea south of the Talaud Islands, Indonesia. It was reported felt lightly in the epicentral area. The last earthquake of larger magnitude within about 200 km of this epicenter in the Molucca Sea was an M 7.1 on November 14, 2019." (July 10, 2021)

 

Forecast 149804 had expected today's enhanced activity in the Molucca Sea was likely within about 25 km of this epicenter around January 15, 2023. This epicenter is located at 103 degrees from the M 6.4 in Northern California of December 20, 2022  and at the sixth node (60 degrees) from recent major earthquakes in Tonga and Fiji and may have been promoted by energy from that source." (January 18, 2023)

 

Following is a listing of aftershocks of M>=4.5 today. A more complete listing can be found in the "INDONESIA" section below.

 

O: 18JAN2023 08:01:27   2.7N  127.1E mb=5.5  EMSC   MOLUCCA SEA

O: 18JAN2023 09:39:07   2.7N  127.0E mb=4.6  EMSC   MOLUCCA SEA

O: 18JAN2023 16:06:40   2.7N  127.1E mb=4.9  EMSC   MOLUCCA SEA

O: 18JAN2023 18:15:37   2.7N  126.9E mb=4.6  EMSC   MOLUCCA SEA

O: 18JAN2023 18:55:39   2.7N  126.9E mb=4.6  EMSC   MOLUCCA SEA

O: 18JAN2023 07:00:37   2.8N  127.1E mb=4.8  EMSC   MOLUCCA SEA

O: 18JAN2023 07:20:22   2.8N  127.2E mb=4.6  EMSC   MOLUCCA SEA

O: 18JAN2023 14:21:38   2.8N  127.1E ML=4.8  EMSC   MOLUCCA SEA

O: 18JAN2023 15:14:00   2.8N  127.1E ML=4.5  EMSC   MOLUCCA SEA

O: 18JAN2023 19:54:59   2.8N  127.1E mb=4.5  EMSC   MOLUCCA SEA

O: 18JAN2023 15:43:32   2.9N  127.3E mb=4.9  EMSC   MOLUCCA SEA

O: 18JAN2023 15:03:32   3.0N  127.2E ML=4.6  EMSC   MOLUCCA SEA

P: 15JAN2023 149804     3.0N  127.0E 4.0-5.4 BAAAA  Halmahera                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES IN SULAWESI; MOLUCCA SEA AND MALTA TRIGGERED BY SOLAR FLARES

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 17, 2023

 

A series of unusual earthquakes today appear to have been triggered by SFE

from strong solar flares. These events began with an M 6.3 in Sulawesi, Indonesia which was followed several hours later by an M 7.0-7.2 in the Molucca Sea about 500 km to the northeast of Sulawesi and an M 5.0 near Malta in the Central Mediterranean Sea, the first such event in this area in the past 30 years.

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 7.0-7.2 in the Molucca Sea, Indonesia. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II in Mandao, Sulawesi and in Southern Mindanao, Philippines in General Santos City, Panabo,  San Jose, Carpenter Hill, Rotonda and Davao. PHIVOLCS reported it was felt with intensity II in Mindanao at Glan, Maaim and Malungon, Sarangani; Banga, City of Koronadal, Polomolok, Tampakan and Tupi, South Cotabato, City of General Santos, Kalamansig, Palimbang, and President Qirino, Sultan Kudarat and with  intensity I in Lake Sebu and Surallah, South Cotabato, Columbio, Sultan Kudarat. While BMG did not expect a tsunami with this earthquake, PTWC suggested a minor tsunami is possible with this earthquake and tsunami warnings were made by BMG. In Manado the capital of North Sulawesi and in Melonguane the quake was felt strongly and forced many people to run from buildings. Residents reported feeling disoriented and dizzy in the area of Gorontalo and that it lasted a long time. The earthquake was also felt in the Maluku Islands. No major damage has been reported at this time. This earthquake occurred at the end of a C3.0 class solar flare (see flare listing below) near local solar noon and may have been promoted by tidal and/or SFE.

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

#------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

XXXX       0420   0500      0605   C3.0      (January 18, 2023)   1.9E-03  

 

The last strong earthquake in the Molucca Sea occurred with M 6.3 on July 10, 2021. At the time of this event this summary noted: 

 

"The largest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.3 in the Molucca Sea south of the Talaud Islands, Indonesia. It was reported felt lightly in the epicentral area. The last earthquake of larger magnitude within about 200 km of this epicenter in the Molucca Sea was an M 7.1 on November 14, 2019." (July 10, 2021)

 

Forecast 149804 had expected today's enhanced activity in the Molucca Sea was likely within about 25 km of this epicenter around January 15, 2023. This epicenter is located at 103 degrees from the M 6.4 in Northern California of December 20, 2022 and at the sixth node (60 degrees) from recent major earthquakes in Tonga and Fiji and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 18JAN2023 06:42:09   2.7N  127.3E ML=4.0  EMSC   MOLUCCA SEA

O: 18JAN2023 06:34:25   2.8N  127.2E ML=4.2  EMSC   MOLUCCA SEA

O: 18JAN2023 07:00:37   2.8N  127.1E mb=4.8  EMSC   MOLUCCA SEA

O: 18JAN2023 06:21:51   2.9N  127.2E ML=4.8  EMSC   MOLUCCA SEA

O: 18JAN2023 06:33:02   2.9N  127.1E ML=4.4  EMSC   MOLUCCA SEA

O: 18JAN2023 06:52:04   2.9N  127.2E ML=4.3  EMSC   MOLUCCA SEA

O: 18JAN2023 06:28:04   3.0N  127.2E ML=4.4  EMSC   MOLUCCA SEA

O: 18JAN2023 06:06:14   2.7N  127.1E Mw=7.0  EMSC   MOLUCCA SEA                  

O: 18JAN2023 06:06:14   2.8N  127.1E Mw=7.0  CENC   MOLUCCA SEA                  

O: 18JAN2023 06:06:14   2.7N  127.0E Mw=7.0  PHIV   MOLUCCA SEA                  

O: 18JAN2023 06:06:14   2.8N  127.1E Mw=7.1  BMG    MOLUCCA SEA                  

P: 15JAN2023 149804     3.0N  127.0E 4.0-5.4 BAAAA  Halmahera                  

 

An earthquake of M 6.0-6.3 also occurred in Minahassa, Sulawesi, Indonesia today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Luwuk, Sulawesi, Indonesia. BMG reported this earthquake was felt with intensity up to IV in the epicentral area of Minahassa and Sulawesi, Indonesia. Intensity IV was felt in Kab. Bone Bolando with III in Minahasa, Selatan, tengara, Mongondow, Manado, Bitung, Tomohon, Kotamobagu, Banggai, Buol, Morowali, among others. The last earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter with M>=6 was an M 6.0 on November 6, 2021, the last of M>=6.3 was an M 6.8 on April 12, 2019 about 200 km south of today's epicenter. This summary addressed activity in this area when an M 6.1 hit near today's epicenter on January 6, 2021 as:

 

"The M 6.1 in Sulawesi, Indonesia was reported with intensity II at Gorontalo and in Luwuk, Sulawesi, Indonesia by NEIC. BMG reported this earthquake with M 6.5 was felt throughout the area of Sulawesi with intensity III-V. An M 6.1 hit within about 100 km of this epicenter on January 19, 2020 but the last of larger magnitude within about 200 km was an M 7.4 on November 16, 2008 about 200 km northwest of today's epicenter." (January 7, 2021)

 

Today's earthquake occurred at the end of solar flare 1310, an M1.8 class event and the strongest flare in the past three days. It is likely to have been triggered by SFE from this flare (see flare listing below).

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

#------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

1310       0000   0000      0025   M1.8      (January 18, 2023)   1.9E-02  

XXXX       0420   0500      0600   C3.0      (January 18, 2023)   1.9E-03  

1310       2316   2329      2425   M1.8      (January 17, 2023)   1.9E-02  

 

Forecast 149805 had expected today's earthquake was likely within about 50-100 km of this epicenter most likely to occur around January 16, 2023. This epicenter is located at 106 degrees from the M 6.4 in Northern California of December 20, 2022 and at the sixth node (60 degrees) from recent major earthquakes in Tonga and Fiji and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 17JAN2023 22:11:11   0.3N  122.3E mb=4.3  EMSC   MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA

O: 18JAN2023 00:34:45   0.1N  123.2E Mw=6.0  EMSC   MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA

O: 18JAN2023 00:34:46   0.1S  123.3E Mw=6.3  BMG    MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA

O: 18JAN2023 00:34:45   0.1S  123.3E Mw=6.1  CENC   MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA

P: 16JAN2023 149805     0.0N  124.0E 4.0-5.4 AAAAA  Mindanao, Philippines      

 

 

An earthquake of M 5.0 occurred near Malta in the Central Mediterranean today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity I-II in Malta at Floriana and Ta Xbiex, Inner Harbour and San Pawl il-Bahar. A foreshock of M 4.2 was felt with intensity III in Mellieha, Northern Malta. This earthquake occurred simultaneously with a C3.0 solar flare which began at the time of the M 5.0 in Malta. This earthquake of M 5.0 is the strongest within about 150 km of this epicenter in the past 30 years. An M 5.3 occurred about 200 km west of this on September 10, 1993 and near this epicenter with M 5.3 on September 29, 1992. The epicenter was within minutes of local solar midnight when the M1.8 class solar flare began (#1310) and was probably promoted by SFE associated with that flare which maximize at this hour (see flare listing above).

 

The unusual nature of this earthquake suggest that a strong aftershock sequence is likely in the next several days. Forecasts 149638 and 149900 had expected today's event in the Mediterranean south of Sicily and north of Malta was likely around January 7-14, 2023. This activity is at 146 degrees from the M 7.0 in Vanuatu of January 8, 2023 and at 106 degrees from the M 7.0 in the Molucca Sea today and at 102 degrees from the M 7.6 in Michoacan, Mexico of September 19, 2022 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 17JAN2023 19:42:33  34.8N   14.3E mb=4.2  EMSC   CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN SEA    

O: 18JAN2023 04:21:59  35.0N   14.1E mb=5.0  EMSC   CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN SEA    

P:  7JAN2023 149638    38.0N   14.0E 3.0-4.9 CCAAA  Mediterranean/Sicily       

P: 14JAN2023 149900    39.0N   14.0E 3.0-4.7 BCAAA  Mediterranean/Sicily       

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.2 in the Rat Islands, Aleutians, Alaska. This appears to be the strongest aftershock to date of the M 6.3 on December 14, 2022 near this epicenter in the Rat Islands. Today's event was not reported felt in this remote epicentral region. It occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. It may also have been triggered by SFE from solar flare 1190 which began several minutes before this earthquake. Forecast 149987 had expected today's event within about 100 km in the Rat Islands was likely around January 17, 2023.

 

O: 17JAN2023 13:13:59  51.3N  178.8E mb=4.2  EMSC   RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

P: 17JAN2023 149987    52.0N  178.0E 4.0-5.6 AAAAA  Rat Islands                

 

 

MODERATE QUAKE SHAKES LUZON, PHILIPPINES REFLECTING REGIONAL ACTIVATION

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 16, 2023

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today occurred in Luzon, Philippines with M 5.2. NEIC reported this earthquake of M 5.2 in Luzon, Philippines was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of Luzon, Philippines in Bicol at Barcelonita and Talisay and in Southern Tagalog at San Agustin and Bacoor.

PHIVOLCS reported it was felt with intensity V in Vinzons, San Vicente and Mercedes, Camarines; IV in Guiayangan and Tagkawayan, Quezon, Labo, Basud and Talisay, Camarines Norte and III in Buenavista, Jomalig and Lopez, Quezon; Paracale, Camarines North; City of Naga, Camarines Sur, Luzon, Philippines. This and other regional earthquake of moderate size suggest regional activation following the M 7.6 in the Banda Sea of January 9, 2023. It is likely that  more earthquakes, perhaps stronger will strike the region of the Philippines and central Indonesia in the next several days as this activation continues. As the area lies near the geomagnetic equator this is likely to occur in conjunction with strong geomagnetic or solar flare occurrences. Today's  earthquake follows a similar event of M 5.2 on December 7, 2022. At the time this summary noted this event as:

 

 

"A moderate earthquake of M 5.2 shook areas of Luzon, Philippines today. NEIC reported maximum intensity V in Bicol at Batobalani with IV in Daet and Santo Domingo and II-III in Talisay, Palesting and in Tagalog, Philippines in Tagkawayan, Sariaya, Binangona,, Antipolo, and Cainta. ... A major earthquake of M 7.0 hit about 400 km northwest of this in Luzon on July 27, 2022 but the last event within about 200 km of today's epicenter in Luzon with M>=5.2 was an M  5.5 on December 25, 2020 and an M 5.4 exactly two years ago on December 7, 2020." (December 7, 2022)

 

Forecast 149849 had expected today's event within about 200 km was likely around January 17, 2023.

 

O: 16JAN2023 21:57:44  14.4N  122.9E Mw=5.2  EMSC   LUZON, PHILIPPINES           

P: 17JAN2023 149849    14.0N  121.0E 3.5-5.0 AABAA  Luzon, Philippines         

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was a M 4.6 in Southern Alaska. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II-III in Wasilla, Chugiak, Willow, Elmendorf, Talkeetna, Eagle River and Anchorage, Alaska. The last earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter with M>=4.6 was an M 4.9 about 100 southwest of this epicenter on November 18, 2022. Forecast 149998 had expected this earthquake within about 100 km was likely around January 18, 2023.

 

O: 16JAN2023 17:43:26  61.8N  149.8W mb=4.6  EMSC   SOUTHERN ALASKA              

P: 18JAN2023 149998    62.7N  149.3W 3.2-4.9 AAAAA  Central Alaska             

 

An earthquake of M 4.4-4.6 was also felt in Southeastern Alaska. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II-III in Elfin Cove and Haines, Alaska. The last earthquake in Southeastern Alaska with M>=4.6 occurred on January 14, 2022 (M 4.6) but  the last such event of significantly larger magnitude was an M 5.2 on December 18, 2019. When a slightly smaller event hit the region on January 11, 2023 this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake felt in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.5 in southeastern Alaska. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III in Yakutat, Alaska. This is the strongest earthquake in southeastern Alaska within about 150 km of this epicenter since an M 5.1 on September 29, 2022. At the time this event was noted in this summary as:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.1-5.3 in Southeastern Alaska. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II-III in Alaska at Yakutat, Juneau, Anchorage, and possibly Fairbanks. This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter in southeastern Alaska since an M M 5.9 on July 25, 2014. An earthquake of M 5.1-5.2 occurred in the area on January 8, 2022." (September 30, 2022, January 11, 2023)

 

 

Forecast 149990 had expected today's event within about 100 km was likely to occur around January 16, 2023.

 

STRONG QUAKES IN IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN; SUMATRA STRIKE WITH NEW GEOMAGNETIC STORM

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 15, 2023

 

The geomagnetic field saw minor storm  conditions today. The AP level was 30.  High latitudes were also stormy  with AP 53. Middle latitudes were active with AP 17. This is the strongest geomagnetic storm since December 30, 2022 when AP hit 31. Strong earthquakes today in the Izu Islands and Sumatra were likely  promoted by this geomagnetic storm. Enhanced seismicity near the geomagnetic equator and at high latitudes is likely in the next several days.

A number of other areas also saw enhanced seismicity with this storm. It maximized near 12:00 UT with Kp 7. The last storm of significantly higher AP occurred on September 4. 2022 with AP 64. This was followed by a series of major earthquakes including an M 6.9 in the Central Atlantic (Sept. 4, 2022); an M 6.2 in the South Pacific (Sept. 4); an M 6.6 in Sichuan, China (Sept. 5) and two earthquakes of M 6.2 on September 9 and 10, 2022) in Papua, Indonesia. This was followed by an M 7.6 in New Guinea on September 10 and an M 7.6 in Michoacan, Mexico on September 19, 2022. Today's storm was accompanied by an M 5.6 aftershock in Vanuatu at the height of the storm and later by events of M 6.2 in northern Sumatra and M 6.3 in the Izu Islands of southeastern Japan. Only three earthquakes of M>=6.2 have occurred in the world in the past month - an M 7.6 in the Banda Sea (January 9, 2023); an M 7.0 in Vanuatu (January 8, 2023); and an M 6.4 in Northern California (December 20, 2022) so today's two event of M>=6.2 with the geomagnetic storm is probably significant.

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.3 in the Izu Islands, Japan. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II-III in Japan at Shizuoka, Kanagawa, Tokyo, Chiba, Fukushima and Okinawa Prefectures. This follows an M 5.2 in the area yesterday. In the previous summary it had been noted in this regard:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.2 in the Izu Islands of Southeastern Japan. Today's event was reported by JMA to have been lightly felt in southeastern Honshu, Japan. The last earthquake in the Izu Islands of significantly larger magnitude in this area of Izu Islands occurred on August 4, 2022 with M 5.7 after similar activity on July 31, 2022. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquakes in the world today occurred south of Honshu, Japan in the Izu Islands region and continued a major escalation of seismicity in this area. The largest of these today was an M 5.7 - the strongest in the current swarm. It is also the strongest quake in the Izu Islands within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 5.9 on October 3, 2020 and an M 5.8 on March 28, 2021." (August 4, 2022)

 

Today's event in the Izu Islands coincided with a C2 class solar flare and may have been triggered by SFE associated with that event. It occurred near local solar noon when SFE is most likely to affect seismicity.

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

#------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

XXXX       0440   0450      0500   C2.0      (January 16, 2023)   1.4E-03  

 

 340       0303   0342      0408   M6.0      (January 15, 2023)   1.4E-01  

 500       1204   1211      1216   C8.3      (January 15, 2023)   3.7E-03  

 520       1416   1431      1451   M4.8      (January 15, 2023)   6.0E-02  

 570       1929   1934      1939   C4.1      (January 15, 2023)   2.4E-03  

 590       2120   2126      2140   C4.8      (January 15, 2023)   2.3E-03  

 

Forecasts 149895 and 149865 had expected this earthquake within about 100 km was likely around January 15-17, 2023. This epicenter is at 103 degrees from the M 7.6 in Michoacan, Mexico of September 19, 2022 and may have been promoted by energy from that source. This epicenter as well as those in Sumatra and Vanuatu are near 36 degrees from the M 7.6 in Banda Sea, Indonesia of January 9, 2023 and may have been promoted by energy from that source as well.

 

O: 16JAN2023 04:49:53  29.0N  139.3E Mw=6.3  EMSC   IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION    

P: 15JAN2023 149895    30.0N  139.0E 3.5-5.1 AAAAA  Central/So. Honshu Japan   

P: 17JAN2023 149865    29.0N  140.0E 4.0-5.7 AAAAA  Bonin Islands              

 

An M 6.2 also occurred today in northern Sumatra, Indonesia. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Sumatra at Sibolga, Gunung and Kabanjahe and III in Pematang Siantar. BMG reported intensity V in Aceh Singkil and Manado; IV in Aceh Selatan, Subulussalam, Tapandi Tengah, Nias, Deli Serdang, Pakpak Bharat, Gunungsitoli, Rokan Hilir and III in Aceh Tenggara, Timur, Simeulue, Barat Daya, Subulussalam, among others. This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 6.7 on September 5, 2011. Subsequent activity at this magnitude level has occurred about 250-300 km to the west of today's epicenter. The only event of M>6.2 in that region in the past 10 years was an M 6.6  on May 14, 2021 about 300 km southwest of today's epicenter. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.6 in Southern Sumatra in the Nias region of Indonesia. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity VI in Sunung, IV in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia and II-III in Sumatra at Sibolga, Padang, and in Malaysia at Georgetown and Singapore.  ...  This earthquake occurred near local solar noon and near the longitude of maximum tidal stress with the current new moon ...

 

This event was also probably enhanced by geomagnetic stresses associated with the geomagnetic storm of May 12-13, the strongest in more than a year. This had also been noted in the previous issues of this summary:

 

"A third factor which probably enhanced global seismicity today was a strong geomagnetic storm which began about the time of M 6.7 in the Mauritius-Reunion area (about 14:00 UT). Most of the strong activity today occurred near the geomagnetic equator or at high latitude as expected with strong geomagnetic triggering. As described in this summary, this storm is the strongest recorded since September 1, 2019:

 

"The geomagnetic field saw stormy conditions today. The AP level was 41.  High latitude geomagnetic field also saw strong storm conditions with AP 47. Strong, sudden commencement storms such as this can enhance seismicity especially near the geomagnetic equator or near the polar auroral regions. This is the strongest geomagnetic storm since AP reached 45 on September 1, 2019 more than 1.5 years ago.." (May 12-13, 2021)

 

Today's earthquake in the Nias area of Indonesia is the strongest in more than 30 years. An M 6.8 was recorded about 300 km to the southwest of today's epicenteron October 15, 1990. The only earthquake of M>=5.6 in the area since 1990 was an M 5.9 on June 12, 2018. The antipode to today's event is in Ecuador at 0N 83W, and may see enhanced antipodal seismicity in the next several days." (May 14, 2021).

 

 

It is likely today's M 6.2 in Sumatra was promoted by solar flare 590 which occurred less than an hour earlier (C4.8). Forecast 149808 had expected this event within about 10 km was likely around January 18, 2023. This epicenter is located at the third node (120 degrees) from the M 6.4 in Northern California of December 20, 2022 and at the fifth node (72 degrees) from the M 7.0 in Vanuatu of January 8, 2023 and at the fourth node from recent major events in Tonga and Fiji and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.

 

O: 15JAN2023 22:30:00   2.1N   98.0E Mw=6.2  EMSC   NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA  

O: 15JAN2023 22:30:01   1.9N   97.8E Mw=6.2  BMG    NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA  

P: 18JAN2023 149808     2.0N   98.0E 4.0-5.4 BAAAA  So. Sumatera               

 

An M 4.8 earthquake in Albania continued and accelerated the seismicity in that area today. NEIC reported maximum intensity IV in Albania at Tirana and Perrenjas with II-III in Albania at Peshkopi, Debar and Skopje, Macedonia, and in Serbia and Montenegro at Kosovo and Podgorica. This follows an uptick in regional seismicity in Albania which was discussed in the previous issue of this summary as:

 

 

"A light earthquake sequence also occurred in the area of Albania today. An M 3.5 occurred and was followed by a number of lesser aftershocks. The M 3.5 was reported by EMSC to have been felt with intensity up to IV in Albania at Matanesh, Tirana, and Durres. This is the strongest activity in Albania since an M 4.5 on September 18, 2022. The strongest earthquake in Albania in the past 2.5 years was an M 4.7 on October 29, 2021. This area often shows enhanced seismicity with strong solar flares." (January 15, 2023)

 

The last earthquake within about 200 km of today's epicenter with M>=4.8 was an M 5.5 on January 9, 2022 about 200 km southeast of today's epicenter. The last such event within  Albania was an M 5.1 on January 28, 2020.  This event appears to have been triggered by Solar Flare #590 - a C4.8 which was in progress when the earthquake occurred. 

 

Forecast 149960 had expected today's activity was likely around January 14." (January 15, 2023)

 

This epicenter is at 141 degrees from the M 7.0 in Vanuatu of January 8, 2023 and at 102 degrees from the M 7.6 in Michoacan, Mexico of September 19, 2022 and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.

 

O: 15JAN2023 21:45:40  41.4N   20.1E mb=4.1  EMSC   ALBANIA

O: 15JAN2023 21:37:21  41.4N   20.1E mb=4.7  EMSC   ALBANIA                       

O: 15JAN2023 21:37:21  41.5N   20.0E mb=4.8  ANSS   ALBANIA                      

P: 14JAN2023 149960    40.0N   21.0E 3.0-5.1 ABAAA  Romania/NW Turkey          

  

A moderate earthquake of M 5.2 was widely felt in Guatemala and El Salvador today. NEIC reported maximum intensity VII in Jerez, Jutiapa, Guatemala and Asuncion, Mita Juliapa with V in El Salvador at Atiquizaya, Concepcion de Ataco, and IV in Santa Ana. Intensity II was reported from Nueva San Salvador, Apopa, San Marcos, and Santa Catarina Pinula, Guatemala. NEIC reported an aftershock of M 5.0 in Guatemala was felt with intensity IV-V in the area(s) of Guatemala in Juliapa, Asuncion, Metapan, El Salvador and II-III in Santa Catarina Pinula, Guatemala and in El Salvador at Ataquizaya, Apopa, Antiguo. The aftershock of M 5.0 appears to have been triggered by the same solar flare which affected the occurrence of the M 6.3 in the Izu Islands of Japan which occurred two minutes after the M 5.0 in Guatemala (see above and solar flare listings in this summary) as it occurred at the maximum output of that flare. The last earthquake of M>=5.2 within about 150 km of this epicenter was an M 5.8 on November 12, 2022 and an M 5.7 on November 4, 2022 about 100 km from today's epicenter. Forecasts 149842 and 149845 had expected today's events within about 25 km was likely around January 14-15, 2023. This epicenter is at 141 degrees from the M 7.6 in Indonesia of January 9, 2023 and near 103 degrees from the M 7.0 in Vanuatu of January 8, 2022 and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.

 

O: 16JAN2023 01:54:03  14.1N   89.9W mb=4.5  EMSC   GUATEMALA

O: 16JAN2023 04:47:13  14.1N   89.9W Mw=5.0  EMSC   GUATEMALA

O: 15JAN2023 23:07:55  14.0N   89.8W Mw=5.2  EMSC   EL SALVADOR                  

P: 14JAN2023 149842    13.0N   89.0W 3.5-5.1 AAAAA  Coast of Central America   

P: 15JAN2023 149845    14.0N   90.0W 3.5-5.1 AAAAA  Guatemala                  

 

The M 5.6 aftershock in Vanuatu occurred at the height of the geomagnetic storm today. NEIC reported this earthquake of M 5.6 in Vanuatu was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of Vanuatu in Port Olry, Sanma. It occurred within about an hour of local solar midnight near the geomagnetic equator where geomagnetic effects often trigger seismicity.  It appears to have been directly triggered by SFE associated with Solar Flare #500 - a C8.3 class event which began minutes before the earthquake in Vanuatu. This is an aftershock of the M 7.0 in Vanuatu of January 8, 2023. Most of the major aftershocks of this event have apparently been triggered by SFE. Forecast 150022 had expected today's event within about 10 km was likely around January 17, 2023.

 

O: 15JAN2023 12:04:17  14.9S  167.0E Mw=5.6  EMSC   VANUATU                      

P: 17JAN2023 150022    15.0S  167.0E 4.0-5.6 AAAAA  Vanuatu Islands            

 

The most unusual earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 3.4 in Central

California. NEIC reported this earthquake of M 3.4 in Central California was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of Central California in Raymond (IV), Catheys Valley, Le Grand, Mariposa, Ahwahnee, Coarsegold, Madera, Midpines, Fish Camp. The last earthquake within about 100 km of this epicenter with M>=3.4 occurred on March 14, 2015 (M 3.4) and April 16, 2014 (M 5.0). This event in April, 2014 occurred with a lunar eclipse.

 

Forecast 149883 had expected today's event within about 15 km was likely around

January 14, 2023.

 

O: 15JAN2023 22:51:33  37.3N  120.0W ML=3.2  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA           

O: 15JAN2023 22:51:33  37.3N  120.0W ML=3.4  ANSS   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA           

P: 14JAN2023 149883    37.3N  119.8W 2.5-4.8 AAAAA  California/Nevada area     

 

An earthquake of M 4.7 also occurred today in the Central Atlantic off the coast of northern Brazil. This is the strongest earthquake within about 250 km of this epicenter since an M 5.2 on July 24, 2019. More recent activity about 300 km to the west and south of this included an M 6.7 on March 22, 2022. Today's event is near the antipode of the M 7.6 in Indonesia of January 9, 2023 and is likely to have been promoted by energy from that source. Forecast 149798  had expected enhanced seismicity in this region was likely around January 11.

 

O: 15JAN2023 07:42:44  10.8N   41.0W mb=4.6  EMSC   NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE  

O: 15JAN2023 07:42:44  10.8N   41.0W mb=4.7  ANSS   NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE  

P: 11JAN2023 149798     8.0N   37.0W 4.0-5.8 BCCAA  Central Mid-Atlantic Ridg  

 

 

SOLAR FLARE TRIGGERING OF SEISMICITY CONTINUES

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 14, 2023

 

 

An earthquake of M 4.7 shook areas of eastern Turkey today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Elazig, Turkey in Elazig and Kovancilar. Two earthquakes have hit this area in the past year with M>=4.7 - an M 4.8 on September 16, 2022 and an M 5.3 on April 9, 2022. At the time of the M 5.3 in April, 2022 this summary noted in this regard:

 

"A moderate earthquake of M 5.3 in eastern Turkey today was strongly felt in the region. NEIC reported intensity VIII in Sincik, Adiyaman, Turkey with IV in Elazig, V in Malatya and IV in Yesilyurt, Turkey. No major damage or casualties were reported with this earthquake. This continues a strong activation of regions around the Black Sea in the past week coinciding with hostilities in Ukraine. More enhanced activity in the area is likely. It is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter since aftershocks of M 5,3-5.5 in April and December, 2020 following and M 6.7 mainshock on January 24, 2020." (April 10, 2022)

 

Today's earthquake appears to have been triggered by a strong solar flare via SFE. This flare of class M6.0 is the strongest since the X1.9 flare of January 8, 2023 (#8040). The earthquake in eastern Turkey occurred within several minutes of this strong flare's maximum and is very likely to have been triggered by SFE from this flare.  Following is the data for flare (340) from SWPC.

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

#------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 340       0305   0342      0408   M6.0      (January 15, 2023)   1.4E-01  

 

Forecasts 149927 and 149933 had expected today's event within  about 200 km of this epicenter was likely around January 15, 2023. This activity is at 144 degrees from the major earthquakes of November, 2022 in the area of Fiji and Tonga and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 15JAN2023 03:36:26  38.5N   39.2E mb=4.7  EMSC   EASTERN TURKEY               

P: 15JAN2023 149927    38.0N   36.0E 3.5-5.1 AACAA  Turkey                     

P: 15JAN2023 149933    40.0N   41.0E 3.5-5.1 ABBAA  Caucasus/Caspian Sea       

 

A light earthquake sequence also occurred in the area of Albania today. An M 3.5 occurred and was followed by a number of lesser aftershocks. The M 3.5 was reported by EMSC to have been felt with intensity up to IV in Albania at Matanesh, Tirana, and Durres. This is the strongest activity in Albania since an M 4.5 on September 18, 2022. The strongest earthquake in Albania in the past 2.5 years was an M 4.7 on October 29, 2021. This area often shows enhanced seismicity with strong solar flares. Forecast 149960 had expected today's activity was likely around January 14.

 

O: 14JAN2023 04:08:37  41.5N   20.0E ML=3.5  EMSC   ALBANIA                      

P: 14JAN2023 149960    40.0N   21.0E 3.0-5.1 ABAAA  Romania/NW Turkey          

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.2 in the Izu Islands of Southeastern Japan. Today's event was reported by JMA to have been lightly felt in southeastern Honshu, Japan. The last earthquake in the Izu Islands of significantly larger magnitude in this area of Izu Islands occurred on August 4, 2022 with M 5.7 after similar activity on July 31, 2022. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquakes in the world today occurred south of Honshu, Japan in the Izu Islands region and continued a major escalation of seismicity in this area. The largest of these today was an M 5.7 - the strongest in the current swarm. It is also the strongest quake in the Izu Islands within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 5.9 on October 3, 2020 and an M 5.8 on March 28, 2021." (August 4, 2022)

 

Today’s Izu earthquake occurred at the end of Solar flare 340 and was probably promoted by SFE associated with that flare (see flare lists in this summary).

 

O: 15JAN2023 04:42:15  30.0N  139.1E Mw=5.2  EMSC   IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION    

P: 15JAN2023 149895    30.0N  139.0E 3.5-5.1 AAAAA  Central/So. Honshu Japan   

 

There were no aftershocks identified in the area offshore Baja California today for the first time since the M 6.2 hit that area on November 22, 2022. An M 3.6 earthquake also occurred today in northern Baja California. It was not reported felt in this area. It occurred as the largest solar flare of the day - an M4.6 (#240) was beginning and followed flare #220 (M3.5) and may have been promoted by SFE from that flare.

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

#------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 340       0305   0342      0503   M6.0      (January 15, 2023)   1.4E-01  

 500       1207   1211      1216   C8.3      (January 15, 2023)   3.7E-03  

 

 220       2006   2021      2028   M3.5      (January 14, 2023)   3.0E-02  

 240       2037   2100      2119   M4.6      (January 14, 2023)   9.0E-02  

 

The area of the northern Gulf of California is often active with high solar activity but has been relatively quiet in recent weeks during the aftershock sequence offshore Baja California which showed no signs of activity today. The epicenter was near local solar noon at the time of the flare and earthquake, a time when SFE and tidal triggering is elevated.  The last earthquake of M>=3.6 within about 100 km of today's M 3.6 was an M  4.4 on September 27, 2021 and prior to that an M 4.4 on December 12, 2019. Forecast 149913 had expected today's event within about 50 km was likely around January 16, 2023. 

 

O: 14JAN2023 20:43:44  30.7N  114.5W ML=3.6  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA           

P: 16JAN2023 149913    30.2N  114.1W 2.0-3.9 AAAAA  SW U.S.A                   

 

 

LIGHT EARTHQUAKES HIT IN SOUTHERN MAINE

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 13, 2023

 

 

A series of light earthquakes were felt in southern Maine near Augusta today. The largest of these was an M 3.3 which NEIC reported was felt with maximum intensity IV in Holden, Orland, Orrington and II-III in Bucksport, Ellsworth, Eddington, Brewer, Penobscot, Orono and Winterport and as far as Bethel and Portland, Maine. This activity began with an M 2.2 at 12:17 UT on January 13 but a series of aftershocks were widely felt near local solar midnight on January 14, 2023. Solar flare 9950  occurred simultaneously with these events  on January 14 and SFE from this flare may have helped trigger these events. The M 3.3 is the strongest earthquake in Maine within about 100 km of these epicenters since an M 3.8 on October 3, 2006 – the strongest event in this area in at least 30 years (a similar M 3.8 hit the area on February 26, 1999 about 125 km to the southwest of today's epicenter). At the time of the October, 2006 event this summary noted in this regard:

 

 

"The earthquake in Bar Harbor, Maine today of M 4.2 was the fourth largest ever recorded in Maine following events of M 5.0 in 1904 and is the strongest in southern Maine since an M 4.2 in Portland in 1957. Reports from the epicentral region included trees down, landslides and boulders rolling from mountainsides at Acadia National Park and Acadia's Park Loop Road was closed due to a rockslide. Some power outages occurred in the epicentral area. Some water pipes burst during the quake. No damages or injuries were reported but local residents were considerably distressed by this earthquake. This and an M 3.8 in northern Maine on July 14 are among the strongest events recorded in Maine in the past century and occur after a long period of seismic inactivity in this region.

 

...

 

Data on the NEIC website indicates the earthquake was felt throughout southern and central Maine and as far to the west as New Hampshire. Maximum intensity of V was recorded at Lisbon Falls and Canann. The farthest report came from East Hampton, New York where the quake was felt with intensity II. Intensity IV was felt in Maine at Thorndike, Stockton Springs, Newport, Fairfield, Penobscot, Waldoboro, Ellsworth, Cranberry Isles, Franklin, Hancock, Southwest Harbor, Steuben, Winter Harbor, and with intensity IV at Hampton, New Hampshire. Intensity III was felt as far as Cumberland Center, Gray, Freeport, Naples, Yarmouth, North Yarmouth, Portland, New Gloucester, August, Bangor and many other communities within about 200 km of the epicenter. Intensity II was felt within about 300 km from the epicenter," (October 4, 2006)

 

Forecasts 149941 had expected today's activity within about 50 km was likely around January 14-15, 2023. This epicenter is at the third node (120 degrees) from recent major earthquakes in Tonga and Fiji and may have been promoted from those sources.

 

O: 14JAN2023 06:27:22  44.7N   68.6W mb=3.3  EMSC   MAINE                        

O: 14JAN2023 06:37:58  44.7N   68.6W ML=2.0  EMSC   MAINE

O: 14JAN2023 06:44:45  44.7N   68.6W ML=2.0  EMSC   MAINE

O: 13JAN2023 12:17:34  44.7N   68.6W MB=2.2  ECAN of Bangor, ME                  

P: 14JAN2023 149941    44.4N   68.2W 2.0-4.2 AAAAA  Maine                      

P: 15JAN2023 149941    44.0N   69.0W 2.0-4.1 AAAAA  Maine                      

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

#------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

9950       0623   0635      0659   SF        (January 14, 2023)   1.0E-04  

9750       1100   ////      1534   RSP       (January 13, 2023)   1.0E-04  

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 3.8-3.9 in Southern Alaska. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II-III in Kenai, Anchorage and Chugiak, Alaska. An M 3.9 hit near this epicenter on December 26, and December 18, 2022 but the last earthquake of larger magnitude within about 100 km of this epicenter was an M 4.1 on October 17, 2022 and prior to that an M 4.5 on October 5, 2022. This may have been promoted by radio flare 9750 (see details above) which began at about the same time as this earthquake. The quake occurred near local solar midnight - a time when SFE from flares and tidal stresses are likely to promote enhanced seismicity. Forecast 149995 had expected this activity was likely in this area around January 15, 2023.

 

O: 13JAN2023 11:04:44  60.2N  152.5W mb=3.9  EMSC   SOUTHERN ALASKA              

P: 15JAN2023 149995    60.1N  153.4W 3.2-5.0 AAAAA  Central Alaska             

 

A light aftershock of M 3.5 also shook areas of Northern California near the epicenter of the M 6.4 of December 20, 2022.  NEIC reported this earthquake of M 3.5 in Northern California was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of Northern California in Ferndale, Loleta, Rio Dell, Fortuna, Petrolia, Eureka, Samoa, Carlotta. The only aftershocks in this region of larger magnitude since December 20 occurred as an M 4.1 on January 11, 2023 and an immediate aftershock of M 4.3 on December 20, 2022. Today's event occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. This event may also have been promoted by SFE from flare 9630 - the strongest solar flare in several days since an M5.6 on January 11 (#8620)

which began at about the same time as this earthquake occurred (see below). Forecast 149955 had expected today's event was likely around January 13 within about 50 km of the epicenter.

 

 

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

#------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

9950       0623   0635      0659   SF        (January 14, 2023)   1.0E-04  

9630       1002   1015      1019   M3.9      (January 13, 2023)   1.3E-02  

 

O: 13JAN2023 10:02:51  40.5N  124.5W ML=3.5  EMSC   OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 

P: 13JAN2023 149955    40.7N  124.1W 2.5-4.7 AAAAA  Off Coast of No. Calif     

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.3 in southern Sumatra, Indonesia. It was reported by BMG  to have been flet with intensity III in Kab. lahat, Ogan Komering, Pagar Alam, Bengkulu, Kaur, Seluma, Lampung, and Pesisir and II in Muara, and Musi among other areas of Sumatra. The last earthquake with M>=5.3 within about 200 km of this epicenter in Southern Sumatra was an M 6.2 on August 23, 2022 and may be an aftershock of that event.  Forecast 149828 had expected today's event was likely within about 100 km of this epicenter around January 15, 2023.

 

O: 13JAN2023 22:41:02   5.0S  103.2E Mw=5.3  EMSC   SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA  

P: 15JAN2023 149828     4.0S  103.0E 4.0-5.6 AAAAA  So. of Sumatera            

 

An unusual earthquake also occurred today in the area off the coast of South Africa. This is the largest earthquake located within about 200 km of this epicenter in at least 35 years. It was not reported felt in this remote area.  The antipode of this epicenter is at 37N 149W in the middle of the North Pacific area. This is not a seismic zone but there could be some triggering of  seismicity near 37N along the coast of Central California.

 

O: 14JAN2023 04:26:06  37.4S   31.1E mb=4.6  EMSC   OFF COAST OF SOUTH AFRICA