August 15, 2026

 

Notable earthquakes and events:

 

An earthquake of M 6.9-7.0 has occurred in the area of northern Sumatra.

This earthquake was located at a depth of 180 km and was widely, but weakly

felt at the surface. EMSC reported strong shaking in Indonesia at Sunggal and in Malaysia

at Klng, Shah Alam, Kampung Sungai Ara, Petaling Jaya, Kuala Lumpur, George Town, Perai, Tanjung Tokong, and Permatang Kuching; in Lhoknga, Indonesia at Banda Aceh and in Thailant in Phuket and Thalang.

NEIC reported intensity IV in Sumatra at Gunung Stoli, Sibolga, Padang and III in Malaysia at Georgetown, Tanjong Tokong, Kuah, Bukit Baru, Juru Pulau and in Phangnga, Thailand

 

This epicenter was at the longitude of maximum tidal stress at the time

of the solar eclipse of August 12, 2026 as reported in this and previous

issues of this summary and had been expected to see enhanced seismicity

at this time as:

 

"The new moon and solar eclipse  arrived on August 12, 2026 at 17:37 UT. This will include a total eclipse of the sun.  This eclipse will be total near Iceland and Greenland at its peak with the greatest eclipse at 65N 25W over Iceland and will also be total in the area of Spain, Portugal, Southern France and northern Italy. These areas could see significantly enhanced seismicity beginning in several days. This eclipse will be partial in the northeastern U.S. and throughout Canada.  Longitudes which are sub-solar (local solar noon) are near 85 West longitude while those at local solar midnight are centered near 95 East longitude. In the west these include area of Central and northwestern South America and eastern U.S. and in the east areas of western Indonesia, Myanmar, and eastern China. These areas are likely to see tidal triggering with this new moon. A moderately large to large tidally triggered earthquake is considered moderately likely with this new moon." (August 9-14, 2026)

 

The last earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter in Northern Sumatra,

Indonesia with M>=6.9 occurred on with M 8.6 on March 28, 2002 followed by an April 6, 2010 with M 7.7. At the time

this summary noted in this regard:

 

"A major earthquake of M 7.7-7.8 hit the Nias and Northern Sumatra area today.

The epicenter was near those of the great earthquakes in December, 2004 and

March, 2005 of M 9.3 and 8.6 respectively.

 

At least 18 people were injured in this earthquake in Sumatra,

Indonesia. At least 6 injuries were critical due to house

collapses and one person suffered a non-fatal heart attack.

Several houses collapsed in the village of Teupah Selatan on

Simeulue Island. Buildings sustained damaged elsewhere on the

island, including two government buildings, and electricity

poles were uprooted knocking out power to the entire island.

On Nias Island and on Simeulue Island, strong tremors sent the

residents of Guningsitoli, Sinabang and other towns running

for higher ground. The earthquake caused a power failure in

Banda Aceh and in Medan adding to the panic. Telecommunication

networks were also disrupted in Aceh where many people fled to

higher ground fearing a tsunami. At Banda Aceh, the earthquake

was felt for close to a minute sending people running

outdoors. The dome of the Sementara Masjid collapsed at Pemuka

village in Singkil. Several houses were flooded by "knee-high"

water in Singkil at Pasar, Pulo Saro, Singkil Lama, Titi

Ambria and Ujung, when land alongside the river subsided by as

much as 30-centimetres. Tremors were also felt at the Arun LNG

plant in Lhokseumawe and in the port of Belawan; power supply

was disrupted at the port but no damage was reported. Tremors

were felt strongly throughout Sumatra Uttara province and at

Medan where people rushed outdoors in panic across the city

including at the city's main hospital. At Binjai, many people

ran outdoors. At Sibolga, the quake was felt strongly for

close to a minute, pulled down utility poles and knocked a

motorcycle rider off his bike. Tremors caused panic at

Takengon and were also felt at Sigli and Langsa; a power

failure occurred at Langsa after the earthquake. At

Sibulusalam, a three storey nursing academy was damaged.

Shocks were also felt in Sumatera Barat and in Riau regency.

At Pekanbaru, in Riau regency, patients at the district

hospital were evacuated into the parking lot even though the

building did not sustain any damage.

 

Light tremors were felt as far away as Singapore, Malaysia and

Thailand. In Malaysia, tremors were felt in many parts of the

country including in high-rise buildings at Petaling Jaya and

on Penang island including those on Macallum Street, Rifle

Range and Sungai Ara causing fear among residents. In

Thailand, tremors were felt in Songhkla province and in the

southern city of Hat Yai. According to the USGS CIIM, tremors

were felt as far as Malé in the Maldive Islands.

 

A small local tsunami was generated by this earthquake. In the

Banyak Islands, several boats were marooned when the sea

rushed onshore. The tsunami was also recorded at tide guages

at Singkil and Teluk Dalam. Press reports claimed the sea

level dropped "several metres" that prompted many people to

flee to higher ground in coastal Sumatra. There was some panic

in the villages of Gunong Kleng Putong suak on the border of

West Aceh and Nagan Raya, after rumours of a rise in the sea

level. Hundreds of residents of Barat Daya, , Sialang, Suak

Bakong and Pulo Air in the sub-district of Kluet Selatan

evacuated to Sapik Durian Kawan villages in the Kluet Timur

sub-district. Many residents of Kemumue village and other

villages living on  the coast in Labuhan Haji sub-district in

South Aceh regency, moved to higher areas. From Aceh Barat

regency, thousands of residents living in the coastal areas,

especially in the regency capital of Meulaboh also moved to

higher regions.

 

A tsunami watch was issued by the PTWC but later lifted for

the coast of Indonesia. Tsunami watches were also issued by

local agencies in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand but were

later lifted. In Malaysia, tsunami advisories were issued for

Kedah, Perlis and Pinang. In Thailand, advisories were issued

for the coastal areas of all provinces on the Andaman Sea and

asked residents to prepare to evacuate in case deemed

necessary. Tsunami advisories were not issued for the Indian

mainland or for the Andaman & Nicobar islands after INCOIS

models determined the event posed no danger.

...

 

NEIC reported this earthquake was felt within about 1500 km of the epicenter

with intensity II-III. Reports from Indonesia included those from Ayer, Itam,

Bandar Baru Salak Tinggi, Banting, Bukit Metagam, Butterworth, Gelugor, Georgetown,

Johor Bahru, Juru, Kajang-Sungai Chua, Kampong Koh, Kota Bahru, Kuala Lumpur,

Kuala Selangor, Lumut, Nilai, Parit Buntar, Perai, Petaling Jaya, Subang Jaya,

Sungai Ara, Tanjong Bunga, Tanjong Malim and Tanjong Tokong. It was also reported felt in Singapore

750 km from the epicenter widely with intensity II. In Sumatra, Indonesia

it was reported with intensity IV-VI in Sibolga, Padang, Medan, Lhokseumawe,

Kuta, Bali, Jakarta, Duri, Belawan, and Banda Aceh. It was also reported

felt in the Maldives with intensity II at Male.

 

In our report yesterday (April 6, 2010) we anticipated this event as follows:

 

"The geomagnetic storm which began at the same time as the M 7.2 earthquake

in Baja California yesterday grew to the strongest geomagnetic disturbance

in more than three years today. The geomagnetic field was at highly active conditions today.  The AP level was 49 and the high latitude AP was 75.

This is the highest level of disturbance in the geomagnetic field since

December 15, 2006 when the AP level was 104 and the high latitude AP was 120.

A global seismic watch is in effect for the coming week due to this

disturbance. Strong earthquakes are likely at auroral latitudes and

near the geomagnetic equator (most likely about 10 degree either side

of the geomagnetic equator) during this period. The likely maximum

magnitude is estimated to be about 1-1.5 units higher than that previously

estimated for events in this time period. Some global seismic

activation is likely with this geomagnetic disturbance with the most

likely large earthquakes around April 7-11." (April 6, 2010)

 

Note that the local date was April 7 and that the epicenter of this event

is exactly 10 degrees south of the local geomagnetic equator so the

forecast is quite accurate in these regards. We also noted the M 6+ event

in Indonesia yesterday in this regard:

 

"The strongest earthquakes of the day occurred on the equator as befits

seismic activity following strong geomagnetic disturbances. The largest

of these was an M 6.2 in the northern Indonesian waters south of Manado" (April 6, 2010)

 

The earthquake of M 7.7 today was the strongest in the region since an M 6.5

on March 28, 2005 and an M 9.3 on Boxing Day, December 26, 2004. That was

the strong tsunamigenic earthquakes which together with the Indian Ocean

tsunami killed more than 200,000 around the Indian Ocean coastline. Strong

earthquakes in the same area have also occurred in recent years with M 7.3-7.5

on November 2, 2002; February 20, 2008 and to the south on September 30, 2009.

 

The geomagnetic field strength was highly variable today as it often is during

strong geomagnetic storms such as continued today for the third day. As in previous

cases of major earthquakes, however, a strong variation in Hp and total field strength

as measured by GOES 11 and 12 accompanied the M 7.7 in Sumatra and peaked

within a minute of the occurrence of that event (22:14-22:15 UT), possibly triggering it.

The strongest variations in the field area measured and were closely

associated with the occurrence of this event as the HF map from Australia

shows below.

 

It is important to recognize that this is part of a pattern. On October 1, 2009

we reported in regard to the M 7.5 in Sumatra:

 

"The timing of today's earthquake of M 7.6-7.8 suggests that geomagnetic

effects may also have had a promotional effect of the earthquake. A strong

variation in solar X-ray flux (GOES 11 and 12) began within a minute of the

time of this event. This was the strongest x-ray flux event in several weeks

and may have had an effect on conditions leading to this earthquake." (October 1, 2009)

 

Or as our report of November 2-3, 2002 reported:

 

"A seismic watch was issued for the region of Indonesia, and especially

Sumatera in yesterday's daily summary. That watch had read:

 

"A strong (M>7) earthquake is likely within the next 5 days in the region of

Southern Indonesia, possibly in the Sumatera area with a secondary event

possibly in the region of Peru or northern So. America. This watch is based on

current global seismic activity and on the location of the X1.2 solar flare

which occurred yesterday at 17:00 UT.  This flare affected areas near the

equator within about 20 degrees longitude of 100E and 80W. (November 1, 2002)"

(November 3, 2002)

 

The great shock of December 26, 2004 occurred in association with one of the

strongest Gamma Ray Bursts every observed. We have speculated in the past

an association between these two unusual events.

 

Tidal triggering may also have been involved in today's event in Sumatra." (April 6, 2010)

 

Today's epicenter is in the antipodal area of the M 7.4 in Colombia of August

10, 2026 and was also probably promoted by energy from that source. The

antipode to today's M 6.9 in Sumatra is an active seismic area near 3S 81W

in Ecuador. Several unlocated events were felt in this area of of Ecuador

in the hours prior to this event in Sumatra including an event widely felt in Ecuador

at Tutamandahostel, Sangolqui, and further activity (with the

possibility of a strong antipodal event) is considered likely at this time

by this summary.

 

O: 15AUG2026 10:54:53   3.0N   99.0E MW=6.9  EMSC   NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA  

 

A major earthquake of M 7.7 occurred today in the area of Flores, Indonesia.

A possible tsunami threat was identified by relavent agencies. EMSC reported moderate shaking in Indonesia at Labuan Bajo, Bantawora, Sungguminasa, Sulawesi, Sekongkang Bawah, Kute, Mararam, Biaslantang Kaler, Banjar Taman, Ubud, Bali, Banjar Pande, Banjar Taman, Legian, and as far as Surabaya.

NEIC reported intensity VIII in Ende Nusa and VI in Ruteng, Timur, VI in Timur, Indonesia at Ruteng; IV in Waingapu; III in Maumere, Bima Nusa, Kuta snd Denpasar, Bali and in Ubud, Dili, East Timor and Gedangan, Java and in Manado, Sulawesi.

Initial damage and death tolls are arriving following the M 7.7 earthquake

in Timor/Flores, Indonesia earlier in the day. Initial authorized tolls include

more than 38 deaths, damage to many structures and thousands of evacuations

linked to the earthquake. A tsunami with height up to 1 meter was observed and recorded

in Maurole, Ende, Indonesia but no damage from that tsunami was reported. The first strong aftershock

recorded by NEIC of the M 7.7 mainshock today occurred as an M 5.9 15 minutes and

30 seconds after the time of the mainshock. Travel time tables show that for

an event at 10 km depth returning to the same depth the time for an ScS

wave reflected off the core-mantle boundary is 15 minutes 30 seconds, so

this appears to be yet another confirmation that this type of triggering

by reflected seismic waves is occurring (as previously discussed in this summary on July 16, 2026 as). 

 

"This earthquake (of M 6.3 in New Zealand) may have been triggered by the ScS seismic wave (an S-wave that reflects off the core-mantle boundary) which

originated 16 minutes earlier when an M 5.0 occurred off the east coast of

North Island, New Zealand. This wave returns to the surface at 11-12 degrees

distance from the epicenter after 16 minutes, the time between the two

earthquakes in New Zealand and may have helped trigger the larger event

in South Island. In a similar manner, the strongest aftershock recorded

by GeoNet occurred also at 16 minutes after the mainshock at the return

time of the ScS wave originating in New Zealand to the epicentral area." (July 16, 2026) The M 5.9 is the strongest earthquake in South Island, New

 

This event in Flores, Indonesia joined similar earthquakes of M 7.7-7.8 in the past year that occurred in Kamchatka, Mindanao, Philippines, and the Drake Passage.

The last earthquake in the world of significantly larger magnitude

than M 7.7 occurred as an 8.1 five years ago on August 12, 2021 in the South Sandwich Islands

and an M 8.2 14 days earlier  in the Alaska Peninsula on July 29, 2021.

Those events, like today's were closely linked to the full and new moon

alignments of late July and early August, 2021.

 

This earthquake is the strongest recorded within about 300 km of this epicenter

since an M 7.8 on December 12, 1992. This summary described that earthquake

as:

 

"12 12  5 29 26 1992  -8.560  121.960  36 7.7   Flores Island area

 

At least 2500 were killed and missing in the Flores region along with 90,000 homeless. Most houses were destroyed by Maumere. A tsunami was generated which destroyed many of the buildings at Maumera and up to 80% of the structures on Flores. Also damaging at Alor and Sumbawa. Inundation from the tsunami was up to 300 meters and maximum height 25 meters.  Ground cracks and landslides were observed. Felt also at Sumba, Sulawesi and Timor." (December 12, 2025)

 

The most recent major earthquake in the Flores region of Indonesia occurred

with M 7.3-7.6 on December 14, 2021. This followed a total solar eclipse

south of this area which occurred on December 4, 2021 near local solar noon

in Flores and may have been promoted by energy from that eclipse/new moon. At the time this summary noted:

 

"A major earthquake of M 7.3-7.6 occurred today in the Flores Sea of Central Indonesia.

NEIC reported maximum intensity IX (damage) in Timur at Ende Nusa Tenggara; VIII in Maumere, VII in Ruteng and VI in Sulawesi at Kendari and V in Mima; IV in Makasar, and lesser shaking at Mataram, Singkang, Kupang.

BMG gave this event M 7.4 and reported intensity IV in Ruteng, Labuan Bajo, Larantuka, Maumere, Adonara, Lembata; III in Tambolaka, Waikabubak, Waingapu and II-III in Makassar, Takalar and Pangkep, Indonesia.

This event occurred within minutes of local solar noon and was probably

promoted by tidal stresses which maximize near this hour.

It was followed by a strong aftershock series. A tsunami warning was issued

but later withdrawn when no significant increases in sea level were observed. Residents fled from their homes during the earthquake which was

strongest in the Sulawesi and Flores areas near the town of Larantuka.

At least one person was injured in Manggarai on Flores in the quake and some minor damage was

reported in South Sulawesi to a school and several homes on Selayar island.

This is the strongest earthquake in the Flores Sea area within about 300 km

since an M 7.9 at great depth on June 17, 1996. A shallow focus event (like today's)

occurred southwest of today's epicenter on December 12, 1992.

Earthquakes of M 7.3-7.5 occurred about 300 km from today's epicenter on November 11, 2003 and October 19, 2001.

An M 5.6 occurred near today's epicenter on December 11 and was noted in this summary as:

 

"An M 5.6 also occurred today in the Banda Sea, Indonesia today. BMG reported it was felt lightly in the area.

This is an area which can be triggered by geomagnetic effects as it lies near

the geomagnetic equator and could be a foreshock to a larger regional

event in the next several days. Today's event within minutes of local solar

midnight and apparently was triggered by high tidal stresses which maximize

at this hour." (December 12, 2021, December 14, 2021)

...

 

The antipode of this epicenter in the Flores Sea is near Trinidad and Tobago in the Windward Islands

north of Venezuela. Some subsequent triggering in this area is possible.

The 103 degree distance from this Flores epicenter passes through the South

Sandwich Ialands, off the coast of Oregon and in eastern Europe among others.

Areas at 144 degrees include recent active epicenters in Guatemala, Chiapas

Mexico as well as area of the Eastern U.S. in Ohio, Maine and in northern Chile and the Canary

Islands. These areas may see enhanced seismicity in coming days." (December 14, 2021)

 

 

Similar effects are likely with today's Flores earthquake.

 

 

This event occurred at the peak of the strongest solar flare identified by

SWPC in the past 12 days. The last flare of higher energy class was a C6.3 (#1020)

on August 2, 2026. Other earthquakes associated within a couple of minutes

with the peak of this flare occurred in Luzon, Philippines (M 3.2);

Eastern Honshu, Japan (M 3.6), Southern Sumatra (M 2.5), Oregon (M 2,1) and Spain (M 2.3).

Preliminary parameters for this flare from SWPC follow.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

3740       2145   2155      2200   C4.3      (August 14, 2026)   1.9E-03

Flores, Indonesia M 7.7 21:58 UT

Luzon M 3.2 21:57 UT

Eastern Honshu, Japan M 3.6 21:58 UT

Southern Sumatra M 2.5 21:59 UT

Western Turkey M 3.2 22:00 UT

Oregon M 2.1 22:02:15 UT

Spain M 2.3 22:04 UT

 

 

The epicenter in Flores, Indonesia is also at a longitude near the maximum

stress associated with the solar eclipse of August 12, 2026 as noted in this

summary in previous issues:

 

"The new moon and solar eclipse  arrived on August 12, 2026 at 17:37 UT. This will include a total eclipse of the sun.  This eclipse will be total near Iceland and Greenland at its peak with the greatest eclipse at 65N 25W over Iceland and will also be total in the area of Spain, Portugal, Southern France and northern Italy. These areas could see significantly enhanced seismicity beginning in several days. This eclipse will be partial in the northeastern U.S. and throughout Canada.  Longitudes which are sub-solar (local solar noon) are near 85 West longitude while those at local solar midnight are centered near 95 East longitude. In the west these include area of Central and northwestern South America and eastern U.S. and in the east areas of western Indonesia, Myanmar, and eastern China. These areas are likely to see tidal triggering with this new moon. A moderately large to large tidally triggered earthquake is considered moderately likely with this new moon." (August 9-13, 2026)

 

This epicenter in Flores is also near the antipode of the strong earthquakes

in Venezuela of M 7.5 on June 24, 2026 and close to the antipode of the M 7.4 in

Colombia of August 10, 2026 and at 103 degrees from the path of the solar

eclipse (in Greenland) of August 12 and was near local solar midnight when

that eclipse was near maximum and may have been promoted by strong

concentrated antipodal effects from those sources. In previous issue of this

summary the antipodal area in southern and western Indonesia had been

noted as a prime area where major seismicity was likely after the earthquakes

in Colombia and Venezuela.

 

A foreshock in Bali occurred yesterday on August 13, 2026 and was discussed

in this summary at the time as:

 

"NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.6 in Bali, Indonesia was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Bali, Indonesia at Kuta, Bali.

 

O: 13AUG2026 10:23:19   8.5S  114.2E MB=4.6  EMSC   BALI REGION, INDONESIA" (August 13, 2026)

       

An aftershock of M 5.0 occurred within a minute of local solar noon in Flores

and was likely promoted by tidal stresses which maximize near this hour.

 

 

O: 14AUG2026 21:58:24   8.4S  121.4E MW=7.7  NEIC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA     

O: 14AUG2026 22:13:50   8.3S  121.2E MW=5.9  NEIC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA     

O: 15AUG2026 03:54:13   8.3S  121.4E MW=5.0  NEIC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA     

 

Following is a list of aftershocks in Flores, Indonesia to the time of this

report with M>=4.

 

 

O: 15AUG2026 00:22:51   7.8S  120.6E ML=4.4  EMSC   FLORES SEA                   

O: 15AUG2026 03:14:24   7.9S  120.8E ML=4.1  EMSC   FLORES SEA

O: 15AUG2026 04:34:35   7.9S  120.7E ML=4.2  EMSC   FLORES SEA

O: 14AUG2026 23:39:00   8.0S  120.7E ML=4.4  EMSC   FLORES SEA

O: 15AUG2026 00:17:57   8.0S  120.3E ML=4.0  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 00:53:33   8.0S  121.0E ML=4.1  EMSC   FLORES SEA

O: 15AUG2026 01:17:19   8.0S  120.8E mb=5.1  EMSC   FLORES SEA

O: 15AUG2026 02:39:53   8.0S  121.5E ML=3.5  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 04:46:19   8.0S  120.6E ML=4.1  EMSC   FLORES SEA

O: 15AUG2026 05:47:50   8.0S  120.4E ML=4.1  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 14AUG2026 22:59:12   8.1S  120.2E mb=4.7  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 14AUG2026 23:07:45   8.1S  120.5E ML=4.2  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 14AUG2026 23:12:31   8.1S  120.7E mb=5.1  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 14AUG2026 23:29:55   8.1S  120.3E ML=4.4  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 14AUG2026 23:36:04   8.1S  120.5E ML=4.2  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 14AUG2026 23:47:20   8.1S  120.7E ML=4.0  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 00:30:12   8.1S  120.7E ML=4.0  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 00:42:10   8.1S  120.2E ML=4.0  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 01:37:39   8.1S  120.5E mb=4.9  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 01:58:08   8.1S  120.7E ML=4.3  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 02:55:30   8.1S  121.4E ML=4.0  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 03:02:24   8.1S  121.5E ML=4.1  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 03:44:04   8.1S  121.2E ML=4.2  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 04:07:52   8.1S  120.8E ML=4.0  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 04:47:47   8.1S  121.3E ML=3.8  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 05:10:39   8.1S  120.6E ML=4.0  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 07:03:36   8.1S  120.6E ML=4.2  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 07:39:40   8.1S  120.9E mb=5.1  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 14AUG2026 22:13:50   8.2S  120.2E mb=5.9  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 14AUG2026 22:37:17   8.2S  120.2E mb=5.5  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 14AUG2026 22:46:12   8.2S  120.3E ML=4.1  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 14AUG2026 22:53:16   8.2S  120.3E mb=5.3  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 14AUG2026 23:48:30   8.2S  120.5E ML=4.3  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 14AUG2026 23:49:58   8.2S  121.4E mb=4.5  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 14AUG2026 23:52:55   8.2S  121.5E mb=4.8  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 14AUG2026 23:59:26   8.2S  120.6E ML=4.2  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 00:03:22   8.2S  121.3E mb=4.7  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 01:09:17   8.2S  120.2E ML=4.0  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 02:08:35   8.2S  121.2E ML=4.3  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 02:12:42   8.2S  120.9E ML=4.2  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 02:18:46   8.2S  121.4E mb=4.5  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 04:16:21   8.2S  120.4E ML=4.2  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 06:43:10   8.2S  120.7E mb=4.7  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 06:48:12   8.2S  121.4E ML=4.1  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 07:16:07   8.2S  121.5E ML=4.4  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 07:19:32   8.2S  120.2E ML=4.2  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 14AUG2026 22:18:06   8.3S  121.4E mb=5.6  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 14AUG2026 23:00:03   8.3S  120.8E mb=4.8  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 14AUG2026 23:03:45   8.3S  121.6E ML=4.0  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 14AUG2026 23:17:04   8.3S  121.4E mb=5.0  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 01:19:39   8.3S  121.5E ML=4.3  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 02:03:49   8.3S  121.4E ML=4.2  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 02:46:55   8.3S  121.4E mb=4.9  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 03:54:13   8.3S  121.4E mb=5.0  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 06:05:45   8.3S  121.4E ML=4.0  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 06:28:51   8.3S  121.4E mb=5.1  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 14AUG2026 21:58:24   8.4S  121.4E Mw=7.7  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 14AUG2026 22:28:40   8.4S  121.6E mb=6.1  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 14AUG2026 22:47:21   8.4S  121.4E ML=4.4  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 00:40:22   8.4S  121.4E mb=5.1  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 01:30:37   8.4S  121.6E ML=4.1  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 01:34:37   8.4S  121.6E ML=4.0  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 04:23:09   8.4S  121.6E mb=4.6  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 05:45:08   8.4S  121.4E mb=5.0  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 00:24:47   8.5S  121.5E ML=4.2  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 00:44:34   8.5S  121.6E ML=4.4  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 14AUG2026 23:18:34   8.6S  121.6E ML=4.1  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 00:20:27   8.6S  121.3E mb=4.6  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 02:41:31   8.6S  120.8E ML=4.1  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 14AUG2026 23:10:16   8.8S  120.4E ML=4.2  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 01:28:03   8.8S  121.5E ML=4.3  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 00:12:18   8.9S  121.5E ML=4.2  EMSC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 15AUG2026 00:15:42   9.0S  121.3E ML=4.0  EMSC   SAVU SEA

 

DISTANCE RELATIONS BETWEEN EARTHQUAKES

 

Statistical evidence indicates that some triggering or promotion forward in time can occur in regions which are under high stress due to additional stress events of  small size. Among these are surface and body waves passing through a region.  Triggering may be dynamic with the promoted earthquake occurring at the same time as the stress event or delayed with an earthquake occurring later in time but still related to the stress event through water lubrication or other various geophysical effects on the faults. We have argued in this report for the past 35 years that this effect is most observable where the seismic waves are largest.  In general this occurs at distances from the rupture ends of  the earthquake producing those waves (mainshock) which we have termed nodal distances. These are defined by the formula D=360*m/n where D is the distance in degrees and m<=m where n an m are small integers. These are also the locations of  the maximum corrections to magnitude in the standard Jeffreys-Bullen tables. In addition there is focusing of  seismic energy from reflections and refractions of f the core-mantle and the inner-outer core boundary of  the earth. This focuses energy at the surface in the distance between 101 and 108 degrees (core-mantle) and 141-148 degrees (inner-outer core boundary). In this report we monitor seismicity at these distances following major earthquakes as experience has shown that strong and/or unusual earthquake are much more likely to occur at these distance from the mainshock. 

 

The following nodal areas showed seismic enhancement in the several months

following the December, 2021 M 7.3 in Flores, Indonesia near today's epicenter.

 

 

Antipodal (~180 degrees)

 

Flores Sea to Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela,

 

Outer shadow zone edge (141-148 degrees)

 

Flores Sea to Massachusetts, Argentina, Guatemala, Virginia, Central Mid-Atlantic, South Carolina, Georgia, Maine, Argentina, Galapagos Is, Atacama Central Chile, Guatemala, Chiapas, Mexico, Canary Islands, 

 

Node 3 (120 degrees)

 

Flores Sea to Southeast Pacific, Montana, Utah, Gulf of California, Southern, Baja California, Iceland, Spain,

 

P- and S- shadow zone edge and node 7 (101-110 degrees)

 

Flores Sea to South of Africa, Antarctica, Greenland Sea, Central, Southern Italy, Greece, South Sandwich Islands, Southern and Eastern Alaska, 

 

Node 4 (90 degrees)

 

Flores Sea to Alaska Peninsula, Eastern Turkey

 

Node 5 (72 degrees)

 

Flores Sea to Komandorsky Islands, Near Islands, Western Iran,

 

Node 6 (60 degrees)

 

Flores Sea to Kuril Is. Tonga, Fiji,  Kashmir, Western Andreanof Is. Eastern Iran, 

 

Node 7 (52 degrees)

 

Flores Sea to Fiji,  South, North Island, New Zealand, Northern Honshu,   Nepal, Vanuatu, Macquarie Is,

 

Node 8 (45 degrees)

 

Flores Sea to  Bangladesh, Myanmar, Kyushu, Solomon Is.,   l, Vanuatu, Macquarie Is,

 

 

Six minutes after the M 7.7 in Flores, Indonesia an earthquake of M 2.3 was recorded

in Spain. This was also with the solar flare (#3730) noted above. This

event in Spain was felt lightly in Armilla, Huetor Vega, Granada, Niguelas.

It was followed by an increasingly larger series of minor shocks in the same

area of Spain which culminated with an M 5.2 near local solar midnight in Spain. 

This earthquake of M 5.2 was reported by NEIC to have been felt with intensity VII (with damage)

in Granada, Spain at Santa Fe and Ogijares and VI in Otura, Maracena with V in La Zubia, Armilla, Granada and IV in Pulianas, Chauchina, Rogiva, Lanjaron, Solobrena and in Malaga, Spain in Nerja, Velez-Malaga, Benalmadena with lesser shaking in Spain in Jaen, Almeria, Sevilla, and Murcia.

News sources on the web indicated the M 5.2 caused roads to crack in Granada and Alhendin, Andalusia

with damage to many buildings. Footage from the area on the web shows cars

buried under debris from damaged  to building facades, nornices, walls, balconies etc.

Many structures showed damage from the shaking with the earthquake.

The M 5.0 is the strongest earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter

in Spain since an M  5.2 on July 14, 2025 about 200 km southeast of today's

epicenter and an M 5.1 on May 11, 2011 about the same distance to the northeast

of today's epicenter. At the time this summary noted the antipodal relation

with a strong earthquake in New Zealand on the same date and the consequences

of the event in Spain from that far-field aftershock as:

 

"The initial event in the New Zealand series of M 4.8-5.0 was located within

less than 100 km of being exactly antipodal to the subsequent earthquakes

in Spain. Earthquakes are exactly antipodal if their latitudes are the same

and their longitudes are in opposite hemispheres and numerically add to 180.

In this case the latitudes are 38 South for New Zealand and 38 North for Spain

and the longitudes are 178 East for New Zealand and 2 West for Spain. This

is an exact antipodal pair, highly unusual and very likely related to each

other. There are many possible causes of antipodal pairs but in this

case the most likely appears to be a direct seismic connection. Seismic

energy is concentrated at the antipode (exact opposite point on the earth)

because of the spherical shape of the earth. Where antipodal regions are

seismic, antipodal pairs are common but antipodal events in two regions which see rare earthquakes

such as occurred today are much more significant in the hypothesis of

antipodal triggering.

 

... 

 

The two earthquakes in Spain killed at least 10 people, the highest death

toll from an earthquake in Spain in the past 50 years and injured dozens

while causing major damage. About 270 people were being treated for injuries

in Lorca according to the Murcia government. The deaths included a child and occurred

during the second, stronger event. Many older buildings an churches

were damaged. Damage included collapsed and cracked buildings and damage

from falling debris. It was the deadliest quake in Spain since 1956 when

12 people died in Granada.

 

The initial event of M 4.5-4.7 in Spain was felt with intensity IV in Mazarron

and II-III in Aguilas, Alcoi, Ciudad Real, Lorca, Murcia and Velez-Rubio,

Spain and in general within about 100 km of the epicenter. ..." (May 11, 2011)

 

 

In the earlier issue of this summary (see below) this area of Spain had been

targeted as prime real estate for triggering associated with the solar eclipse

of August 12, 2026 as:

 

" ... Much of the unusual seismicity of the day - including

a swarm of minor earthquakes in Spain and a light M 3.9 in the San Francisco

Bay area of California were probably promoted by energy from the M 7.4 in

Colombia two days ago or to the new moon and solar eclipse of August 12, 2026.

These types of earthquakes are expected to continue for several more days.

 

and

 

...

 

EMSC reported a series of light earthquakes in Spain today.

These events are occurring at an epicenter which was the last

location where the total eclipse of the sun of August 12 was observed

and were likely being promoted by tidal stresses associated with that eclipse." (August 14, 2026)

 

Aftershocks of today's event in Spain were plentiful. Some of these including

an M 2.4 were felt within minutes of local solar midnight in Spain in Velez-Malaga historic center and in Huetor Vega.

 

O: 14AUG2026 23:04:40  37.1N    3.6W MW=5.0  EMSC   SPAIN    

O: 14AUG2026 23:04:40  37.1N    3.6W MW=5.2  NEIC   SPAIN    

O: 14AUG2026 22:04:15  37.1N    3.6W MW=2.3  EMSC   SPAIN    

O: 15AUG2026 00:06:24  37.1N    3.6W MW=2.4  EMSC   SPAIN    

O: 14AUG2026 23:09:43  37.0N    2.8W ML=2.2  EMSC   SPAIN                        

O: 14AUG2026 16:43:45  37.1N    3.6W ML=3.6  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 14AUG2026 18:03:25  37.1N    3.6W ML=2.2  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 14AUG2026 22:04:15  37.1N    3.6W ML=2.3  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 14AUG2026 23:04:40  37.1N    3.6W mb=5.0  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 14AUG2026 23:04:40  37.1N    3.6W mb=5.2  NEIC   SPAIN

O: 14AUG2026 23:08:56  37.1N    3.6W ML=2.1  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 14AUG2026 23:14:37  37.1N    3.6W ML=2.0  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 14AUG2026 23:18:16  37.1N    3.6W ML=2.0  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 14AUG2026 23:34:29  37.1N    3.6W ML=2.6  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 15AUG2026 00:03:17  37.1N    3.6W ML=2.0  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 15AUG2026 00:06:24  37.1N    3.6W ML=2.4  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 15AUG2026 00:10:00  37.1N    3.6W ML=2.2  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 15AUG2026 00:24:57  37.1N    3.6W ML=1.8  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 15AUG2026 00:30:53  37.1N    3.6W ML=2.1  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 15AUG2026 01:47:54  37.1N    3.6W ML=2.1  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 15AUG2026 04:21:50  37.1N    3.6W ML=2.2  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 15AUG2026 04:34:09  37.1N    3.6W ML=3.3  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 15AUG2026 04:52:13  37.1N    4.8W ML=2.3  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 15AUG2026 05:33:21  37.1N    3.6W ML=2.0  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 15AUG2026 06:04:44  37.1N    3.6W ML=2.1  EMSC   SPAIN

 

The new moon and solar eclipse  arrived on August 12, 2026 at 17:37 UT. This will include a total eclipse of the sun.  This eclipse will be total near Iceland and Greenland at its peak with the greatest eclipse at 65N 25W over Iceland and will also be total in the area of Spain, Portugal, Southern France and northern Italy. These areas could see significantly enhanced seismicity beginning in several days. This eclipse will be partial in the northeastern U.S. and throughout Canada.  Longitudes which are sub-solar (local solar noon) are near 85 West longitude while those at local solar midnight are centered near 95 East longitude. In the west these include area of Central and northwestern South America and eastern U.S. and in the east areas of western Indonesia, Myanmar, and eastern China. These areas are likely to see tidal triggering with this new moon. A moderately large to large tidally triggered earthquake is considered moderately likely with this new moon." (August 9-12, 2026)

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.6 in Bali, Indonesia was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Bali, Indonesia at Kuta, Bali.

 

O: 13AUG2026 10:23:19   8.5S  114.2E MB=4.6  EMSC   BALI REGION, INDONESIA       

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.3 in the Balleny Islands was not felt in this remote area.

This epicenter is near the exact location where the total eclipse of the sun

was maximized on August 12, 2026. It is likely it was promoted by tidal

and antipodal effects from that solar eclipse. This area had been expected

to see such antipodal effects with the eclipse as noted in previous issues

of this summary:

 

"In the previous summary this summary provided some historical insight

into the relation between total solar eclipses in the vicinity of of Europe

and accompanying major earthquakes in that region. Tidal stresses are

maximized at antipodal locations as well so today this summary will examine

some notable earthquakes antipodal to total solar eclipses. In the current

case the antipode of Iceland to Europe is in the vicinity of the Balleny

Islands north to New Zealand and the Kermadec Islands, an active seismic

region where a strong earthquake may be expected with the eclipse ..." (August 10-11, 2026)

 

 

This epicenter in the Balleny Islands is within a couple of degrees of

104 degrees from Honshu, Japan, Colombia, Chiapas, and Kyushu, japan and

may have been promoted by strong constructive interference of energy

from those sources.

 

 

O: 15AUG2026 00:40:13  62.9S  165.9E MB=5.3  NEIC   BALLENY ISLANDS REGION       

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.4 in Mammoth Lakes, California was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Mammoth Lakes, California in Fresno, Three River and Bishop and in Glenbrook, Nevada.

 

O: 14AUG2026 20:38:32  37.4N  118.8W MB=3.4  NEIC   CALIFORNIA-NEVADA BORDER     

O: 14AUG2026 20:38:32  37.5N  118.8W ML=2.9  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA           

O: 14AUG2026 20:45:23  37.5N  118.8W MD=2.4  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.9 in Solomon Islands was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Solomon Islands in Honiara, Guadalcanal.

 

This epicenter is at the third node (120 degrees) from Colombia; 107 degrees from Chiapas and at the

seventh node (52 degrees) from Honshu and Kyushu, Japan and may have been promoted

by energy from those sources.

 

O: 14AUG2026 20:23:53  10.4S  161.8E MB=4.8  NEIC   SOLOMON ISLANDS              

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.9 in Azerbaijan was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Azerbaijan in Quba and Kesla, Baki and in Usukhchay, Dagestan, Russia.

EMSC reported strong shaking in Azerbaijan at Kyzyl-Burun, Altiagac, Hacihuseynli, Quba, Xacmaz, Ismayilli, Qutqashen, Haci Zeynalabdin, Saray, Kyurdarmit, Badamdar, Qaracuxur,  and in Russia at Usukhchay and Makhachkala,

 

O: 14AUG2026 16:56:14  41.1N   48.8E MB=4.9  NEIC   AZERBAIJAN                   

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.5 in Southern California was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern California in Lompoc and Goleta.

 

O: 14AUG2026 12:31:45  34.5N  120.5W MB=2.5  NEIC   SOUTHERN  CALIFORNIA           

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

 

 

SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

 

Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of  the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models.  Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:

 

 

TROPICAL STORM HERNAN (DEPRESSION 08E) 

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

 

TS    HERNAN   2026-08-15  00:00 UT  16.3N  133.2W   40 kts  North Pacific east of Hawaii                                                              

 

TS Hernan (TD 08E) continued today in the Northern Pacific east of Hawaii with winds up to 40 kts.  It will track to the west and is expected to reach Hawaii as a Tropical Storm around August 18. If it survives and makes landfall in Hawaii (which looks unlikely at this time) a moderate earthquake could occur near the time of landfall. No seismic enhancement at the antipode in the South Indian Ocean is expected.

 

TROPICAL STORM LALA (01C)    

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

 

TS    LALA     2026-08-15  00:00 UT  17.2N  153.0W   70 kts  Southeast of Hawaii                                                             

 

TS Lala (TC 01C)  continued today in the Northern Pacific southeast of Hawaii with winds up to 70 kts.  It will track to the northwest and is expected to reach Hawaii as a Hurricane around August 15-16. A moderate earthquake could occur near the time of landfall of this storm. Seismic enhancement near the antipode in the South Indian Ocean is not expected.

 

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (TD 16W)    

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

 

TS    NANGKA   2026-08-15  00:00 UT  28.4N  154.5E   35 kts  North Pacific                                                              

 

TD Nangka (TD 16W) continued today in the Northern Pacific with winds up to 35 kts.  It will track to the northeast and not encounter seismic areas in the next several days. No seismicity is expected to be enhanced near this storm or at its antipode at this time.

 

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PEILOU (13W)  

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

 

TD    PEILOU   2026-08-15  00:00 UT  33.8N  170.2E   40 kts  North Pacific                                                              

 

TD Peilou (TD 13W) continued today in the Northern Pacific with winds up to 40 kts.  It will track to the northeast and not encounter seismic areas in the next several days. It is expected to dissipate in the north Pacific by late August 14. No seismicity is expected to be enhanced near this storm or at its antipode at this time.

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date

of August 14, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.

The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes

which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by

immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes

which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have

been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

3580       0615   0701      0830   C4.1      (August 14, 2026)   9.4E-03

Leeward Is. M 3.3 06:27 UT

 

3630       0945   0953      0956   C1.5      (August 14, 2026)   7.1E-04  

Honshu M 4.8 09:58 UT

Hawaii M 2.6 14:09 UT

 

3640       1133   1142      1146   C1.1      (August 14, 2026)   6.8E-04  

Northern Sumatra M 2.6 11:47 UT

 

3740       2145   2155      2200   C4.3      (August 14, 2026)   1.9E-03  

Flores, Indonesia M 7.7 21:58 UT

Luzon M 3.2 21:57 UT

Eastern Honshu, Japan M 3.6 21:58 UT

Southern Sumatra M 2.5 21:59 UT

Western Turkey M 3.2 22:00 UT

Oregon M 2.1 22:02:15 UT

Spain M 2.3 22:04 UT

 

 

No solar flares of C- or higher class were reported by SWPC today,

 

* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list

                                                       

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:  active August 15, unsettled August 16 quiet August 17.  Solar M-flare chance: 15% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%

 

AP Indicies: global: 9, high: 22, mid-latitude: 12, time of max k: 11:00-17:00 UT; Max k: 5 Global Kp 2.67 1200-1400, August 14; Sunspot Number: 106; Radio Flux: 114

 

A sudden enhancement in the geomagnetic field strength was recorded on the GOES-18 magnetometer beginning

about 17:55 UT on August 14, 2026 (at 137 W longitude satellite position). An arcjet maneuver

returned the satellite to expected orbit and was completed by 18:45 UT.

Earthquakes in Kamchatka (M 4.5) and Chiapas (M 4.5) and Halmahera, Indonesia (M 4.3)

may have been promoted by this geomagnetic anomaly. The area of the M 7.7 in Flores,

Indonesia was near local solar midnight when this anomaly began.

 

 

O: 14AUG2026 17:47:52  51.3N  159.0E MB=4.5  EMSC   OFF EAAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA 

O: 14AUG2026 17:49:28  14.1N   93.2W MB=4.3  EMSC   CHIAPAS, MEXICO                 

O: 14AUG2026 18:03:54   4.3N  128.0E MB=4.7  EMSC   NORTH OF HALMAHERA, INDONESIA   

 

The Hp30 index (GFZ) did not exceed 3.0 on August 14, 2026. No geomagnetic storms were observed.

 

 

August 14, 2026

 

Notable earthquakes and events:

 

ANOTHER UPDATE:

 

An earthquake of M 6.9-7.0 has occurred in the area of northern Sumatra.

This earthquake was located at a depth of 180 km and was widely, but weakly

felt at the surface. NEIC reported strong shaking in Indonesia at Sunggal and in Malaysia

at Klng, Shah Alam, Kampung Sungai Ara, Petaling Jaya, Kuala Lumpur, George Town, Perai, Tanjung Tokong, and Permatang Kuching; in Lhoknga, Indonesia at Banda Aceh and in Thailant in Phuket and Thalang.

 

This epicenter was at the longitude of maximum tidal stress at the time

of the solar eclipse of August 12, 2026 as reported in this and previous

issues of this summary and had been expected to see enhanced seismicity

at this time as:

 

"The new moon and solar eclipse  arrived on August 12, 2026 at 17:37 UT. This will include a total eclipse of the sun.  This eclipse will be total near Iceland and Greenland at its peak with the greatest eclipse at 65N 25W over Iceland and will also be total in the area of Spain, Portugal, Southern France and northern Italy. These areas could see significantly enhanced seismicity beginning in several days. This eclipse will be partial in the northeastern U.S. and throughout Canada.  Longitudes which are sub-solar (local solar noon) are near 85 West longitude while those at local solar midnight are centered near 95 East longitude. In the west these include area of Central and northwestern South America and eastern U.S. and in the east areas of western Indonesia, Myanmar, and eastern China. These areas are likely to see tidal triggering with this new moon. A moderately large to large tidally triggered earthquake is considered moderately likely with this new moon." (August 9-14, 2026)

 

The last earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter in Northern Sumatra,

Indonesia with M>=6.9 occurred on with M 8.6 on March 28, 2002 followed by an April 6, 2010 with M 7.7. At the time

this summary noted in this regard:

 

Today's epicenter is in the antipodal area of the M 7.4 in Colombia of August

10, 2026 and was also probably promoted by energy from that source. The

antipode to today's M 6.9 in Sumatra is an active seismic area near 3S 81W

in Ecuador. Several unlocated events were felt in this area of of Ecuador

in the hours prior to this event in Sumatra and further activity (with the

possibility of a strong antipodal event) is considered likely at this time

by this summary.

 

O: 15AUG2026 10:54:53   3.0N   99.0E MW=6.9  EMSC   NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA  

 

Initial damage and death tolls are arriving following the M 7.7 earthquake

in Timor/Flores, Indonesia earlier in the day. Initial authorized tolls include

more than 38 deaths, damage to many structures and thousands of evacuations

linked to the earthquake. A tsunami with height up to 1 meter was observed and recorded

in Maurole, Ende, Indonesia but no damage from that tsunami was reported. That event in Flores, Indonesia joined similar

earthquakes of M 7.7-7.8 in the past year that occurred in Kamchatka, Mindanao, Philippines, and the Drake Passage.

The last earthquake in the world of significantly larger magnitude

than M 7.7 occurred as an 8.1 five years ago on August 12, 2021 in the South Sandwich Islands

and an M 8.2 14 days earlier  in the Alaska Peninsula on July 29, 2021.

Those events, like today's were closely linked to the full and new moon

alignments of late July and early August, 2021.

 

UPDATE:

 

A major earthquake of M 7.7 occurred today in the area of Flores, Indonesia.

A possible tsunami threat was identified by relavent agencies. EMSC reported moderate shaking in Indonesia at Labuan Bajo, Bantawora, Sungguminasa, Sulawesi, Sekongkang Bawah, Kute, Mararam, Biaslantang Kaler, Banjar Taman, Ubud, Bali, Banjar Pande, Banjar Taman, Legian, and as far as Surabaya.

NEIC reported intensity VI in Timur, Indonesia at Ruteng Nusa; IV in Waingapu; III in Maumere, Bima Nusa, Kuta snd Denpasar, Bali and in Ubud, Dili, East Timor and Gedangan, Java.

 

This earthquake is the strongest recorded within about 300 km of this epicenter

since an M 7.8 on December 12, 1992. This summary described that earthquake

as:

 

"12 12  5 29 26 1992  -8.560  121.960  36 7.7   Flores Island area

 

At least 2500 were killed and missing in the Flores region along with 90,000 homeless. Most houses were destroyed by Maumere. A tsunami was generated which destroyed many of the buildings at Maumera and up to 80% of the structures on Flores. Also damaging at Alor and Sumbawa. Inundation from the tsunami was up to 300 meters and maximum height 25 meters.  Ground cracks and landslides were observed. Felt also at Sumba, Sulawesi and Timor." (December 12, 2025)

 

The most recent major earthquake in the Flores region of Indonesia occurred

with M 7.3-7.6 on December 14, 2021. This followed a total solar eclipse

south of this area which occurred on December 4, 2021 near local solar noon

in Flores and may have been promoted by energy from that eclipse/new moon. At the time this summary noted:

 

"A major earthquake of M 7.3-7.6 occurred today in the Flores Sea of Central Indonesia.

NEIC reported maximum intensity IX (damage) in Timur at Ende Nusa Tenggara; VIII in Maumere, VII in Ruteng and VI in Sulawesi at Kendari and V in Mima; IV in Makasar, and lesser shaking at Mataram, Singkang, Kupang.

BMG gave this event M 7.4 and reported intensity IV in Ruteng, Labuan Bajo, Larantuka, Maumere, Adonara, Lembata; III in Tambolaka, Waikabubak, Waingapu and II-III in Makassar, Takalar and Pangkep, Indonesia.

This event occurred within minutes of local solar noon and was probably

promoted by tidal stresses which maximize near this hour.

It was followed by a strong aftershock series. A tsunami warning was issued

but later withdrawn when no significant increases in sea level were observed. Residents fled from their homes during the earthquake which was

strongest in the Sulawesi and Flores areas near the town of Larantuka.

At least one person was injured in Manggarai on Flores in the quake and some minor damage was

reported in South Sulawesi to a school and several homes on Selayar island.

This is the strongest earthquake in the Flores Sea area within about 300 km

since an M 7.9 at great depth on June 17, 1996. A shallow focus event (like today's)

occurred southwest of today's epicenter on December 12, 1992.

Earthquakes of M 7.3-7.5 occurred about 300 km from today's epicenter on November 11, 2003 and October 19, 2001.

An M 5.6 occurred near today's epicenter on December 11 and was noted in this summary as:

 

"An M 5.6 also occurred today in the Banda Sea, Indonesia today. BMG reported it was felt lightly in the area.

This is an area which can be triggered by geomagnetic effects as it lies near

the geomagnetic equator and could be a foreshock to a larger regional

event in the next several days. Today's event within minutes of local solar

midnight and apparently was triggered by high tidal stresses which maximize

at this hour." (December 12, 2021, December 14, 2021)

...

 

The antipode of this epicenter in the Flores Sea is near Trinidad and Tobago in the Windward Islands

north of Venezuela. Some subsequent triggering in this area is possible.

The 103 degree distance from this Flores epicenter passes through the South

Sandwich Ialands, off the coast of Oregon and in eastern Europe among others.

Areas at 144 degrees include recent active epicenters in Guatemala, Chiapas

Mexico as well as area of the Eastern U.S. in Ohio, Maine and in northern Chile and the Canary

Islands. These areas may see enhanced seismicity in coming days." (December 14, 2021)

 

 

Similar effects are likely with today's Flores earthquake.

 

 

This event occurred at the peak of the strongest solar flare identified by

SWPC in the past 12 days. The last flare of higher energy class was a C6.3 (#1020)

on August 2, 2026. Other earthquakes associated within a couple of minutes

with the peak of this flare occurred in Luzon, Philippines (M 3.2);

Eastern Honshu, Japan (M 3.6), Southern Sumatra (M 2.5), Oregon (M 2,1) and Spain (M 2.3).

Preliminary parameters for this flare from SWPC follow.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

3740       2145   2155      2200   C4.3      (August 14, 2026)   1.9E-03

Flores, Indonesia M 7.7 21:58 UT

Luzon M 3.2 21:57 UT

Eastern Honshu, Japan M 3.6 21:58 UT

Southern Sumatra M 2.5 21:59 UT

Western Turkey M 3.2 22:00 UT

Oregon M 2.1 22:02:15 UT

Spain M 2.3 22:04 UT

 

 

The epicenter in Flores, Indonesia is also at a longitude near the maximum

stress associated with the solar eclipse of August 12, 2026 as noted in this

summary in previous issues:

 

"The new moon and solar eclipse  arrived on August 12, 2026 at 17:37 UT. This will include a total eclipse of the sun.  This eclipse will be total near Iceland and Greenland at its peak with the greatest eclipse at 65N 25W over Iceland and will also be total in the area of Spain, Portugal, Southern France and northern Italy. These areas could see significantly enhanced seismicity beginning in several days. This eclipse will be partial in the northeastern U.S. and throughout Canada.  Longitudes which are sub-solar (local solar noon) are near 85 West longitude while those at local solar midnight are centered near 95 East longitude. In the west these include area of Central and northwestern South America and eastern U.S. and in the east areas of western Indonesia, Myanmar, and eastern China. These areas are likely to see tidal triggering with this new moon. A moderately large to large tidally triggered earthquake is considered moderately likely with this new moon." (August 9-13, 2026)

 

This epicenter in Flores is also near the antipode of the strong earthquakes

in Venezuela of M 7.5 on June 24, 2026 and close to the antipode of the M 7.4 in

Colombia of August 10, 2026 and at 103 degrees from the path of the solar

eclipse (in Greenland) of August 12 and was near local solar midnight when

that eclipse was near maximum and may have been promoted by strong

concentrated antipodal effects from those sources. In previous issue of this

summary the antipodal area in southern and western Indonesia had been

noted as a prime area where major seismicity was likely after the earthquakes

in Colombia and Venezuela.

 

More as details become available.

 

O: 14AUG2026 21:58:24   8.4S  121.4E MW=7.7  NEIC   FLORES REGION, INDONESIA     

 

DISTANCE RELATIONS BETWEEN EARTHQUAKES

 

Statistical evidence indicates that some triggering or promotion forward in time can occur in regions which are under high stress due to additional stress events of  small size. Among these are surface and body waves passing through a region.  Triggering may be dynamic with the promoted earthquake occurring at the same time as the stress event or delayed with an earthquake occurring later in time but still related to the stress event through water lubrication or other various geophysical effects on the faults. We have argued in this report for the past 35 years that this effect is most observable where the seismic waves are largest.  In general this occurs at distances from the rupture ends of  the earthquake producing those waves (mainshock) which we have termed nodal distances. These are defined by the formula D=360*m/n where D is the distance in degrees and m<=m where n an m are small integers. These are also the locations of  the maximum corrections to magnitude in the standard Jeffreys-Bullen tables. In addition there is focusing of  seismic energy from reflections and refractions of f the core-mantle and the inner-outer core boundary of  the earth. This focuses energy at the surface in the distance between 101 and 108 degrees (core-mantle) and 141-148 degrees (inner-outer core boundary). In this report we monitor seismicity at these distances following major earthquakes as experience has shown that strong and/or unusual earthquake are much more likely to occur at these distance from the mainshock. 

 

The following nodal areas showed seismic enhancement in the several months

following the December, 2021 M 7.3 in Flores, Indonesia near today's epicenter.

 

 

Antipodal (~180 degrees)

 

Flores Sea to Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela,

 

Outer shadow zone edge (141-148 degrees)

 

Flores Sea to Massachusetts, Argentina, Guatemala, Virginia, Central Mid-Atlantic, South Carolina, Georgia, Maine, Argentina, Galapagos Is, Atacama Central Chile, Guatemala, Chiapas, Mexico, Canary Islands, 

 

Node 3 (120 degrees)

 

Flores Sea to Southeast Pacific, Montana, Utah, Gulf of California, Southern, Baja California, Iceland, Spain,

 

P- and S- shadow zone edge and node 7 (101-110 degrees)

 

Flores Sea to South of Africa, Antarctica, Greenland Sea, Central, Southern Italy, Greece, South Sandwich Islands, Southern and Eastern Alaska, 

 

Node 4 (90 degrees)

 

Flores Sea to Alaska Peninsula, Eastern Turkey

 

Node 5 (72 degrees)

 

Flores Sea to Komandorsky Islands, Near Islands, Western Iran,

 

Node 6 (60 degrees)

 

Flores Sea to Kuril Is. Tonga, Fiji,  Kashmir, Western Andreanof Is. Eastern Iran, 

 

Node 7 (52 degrees)

 

Flores Sea to Fiji,  South, North Island, New Zealand, Northern Honshu,   Nepal, Vanuatu, Macquarie Is,

 

Node 8 (45 degrees)

 

Flores Sea to  Bangladesh, Myanmar, Kyushu, Solomon Is.,   l, Vanuatu, Macquarie Is,

 

 

Six minutes after the M 7.7 in Flores, Indonesia an earthquake of M 2.3 was recorded

in Spain. This was also with the solar flare (#3730) noted above. This

event in Spain was felt lightly in Armilla, Huetor Vega, Granada, Niguelas.

It was followed by an increasingly larger series of minor shocks in the same

area of Spain which culminated with an M 5.0 near local solar midnight in Spain. 

The M 5.0 is the strongest earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter

in Spain since an M  5.2 on July 14, 2025 about 200 km southeast of today's

epicenter and an M 5.1 on May 11, 2011 about the same distance to the northeast

of today's epicenter. At the time this summary noted the antipodal relation

with a strong earthquake in New Zealand on the same date and the consequences

of the event in Spain from that far-field aftershock as:

 

"The initial event in the New Zealand series of M 4.8-5.0 was located within

less than 100 km of being exactly antipodal to the subsequent earthquakes

in Spain. Earthquakes are exactly antipodal if their latitudes are the same

and their longitudes are in opposite hemispheres and numerically add to 180.

In this case the latitudes are 38 South for New Zealand and 38 North for Spain

and the longitudes are 178 East for New Zealand and 2 West for Spain. This

is an exact antipodal pair, highly unusual and very likely related to each

other. There are many possible causes of antipodal pairs but in this

case the most likely appears to be a direct seismic connection. Seismic

energy is concentrated at the antipode (exact opposite point on the earth)

because of the spherical shape of the earth. Where antipodal regions are

seismic, antipodal pairs are common but antipodal events in two regions which see rare earthquakes

such as occurred today are much more significant in the hypothesis of

antipodal triggering.

 

... 

 

The two earthquakes in Spain killed at least 10 people, the highest death

toll from an earthquake in Spain in the past 50 years and injured dozens

while causing major damage. About 270 people were being treated for injuries

in Lorca according to the Murcia government. The deaths included a child and occurred

during the second, stronger event. Many older buildings an churches

were damaged. Damage included collapsed and cracked buildings and damage

from falling debris. It was the deadliest quake in Spain since 1956 when

12 people died in Granada.

 

The initial event of M 4.5-4.7 in Spain was felt with intensity IV in Mazarron

and II-III in Aguilas, Alcoi, Ciudad Real, Lorca, Murcia and Velez-Rubio,

Spain and in general within about 100 km of the epicenter. ..." (May 11, 2011)

 

 

In the earlier issue of this summary (see below) this area of Spain had been

targeted as prime real estate for triggering associated with the solar eclipse

of August 12, 2026 as:

 

"EMSC reported a series of light earthquakes in Spain today.

These events are occurring at an epicenter which was the last

location where the total eclipse of the sun of August 12 was observed

and were likely being promoted by tidal stresses associated with that eclipse." (August 14, 2026)

 

O: 14AUG2026 23:04:40  37.1N    3.6W MW=5.0  EMSC   SPAIN    

O: 14AUG2026 22:04:15  37.1N    3.6W MW=2.3  EMSC   SPAIN    

 

A strong sudden pulse was recorded on the GOES-19 satellite magnetometer on August 14, 2026

starting at about 01:15 to 01:35 UT. An arcjet maneuver corrected the satellite position

starting at 01:40 UT and normal operations resumed when the orbit resumed

with expected parameters around 03:15 UT. The beginning of this excursion

in the magnetic field was accompanied by an M 5.0 in Mindanao, Philippines at

August 14, 2026 also at 01:15 UT. NEIC reported this earthquake in the Philippines was

felt with intensity II in Southern Mindanao at Buayan, Kroonadal. These

are aftershocks of the M 7.8 of June 7, 2026, which have been occurring

nearly daily since that major earthquake.

 

O: 13AUG2026 18:39:30   5.3N  125.5E MW=5.3  EMSC   MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES        

O: 14AUG2026 01:14:50   5.4N  125.2E mb=5.0  EMSC   MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

O: 13AUG2026 09:22:58   6.3N  125.9E Mw=5.2  EMSC   MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

 

The new moon and solar eclipse  arrived on August 12, 2026 at 17:37 UT. This will include a total eclipse of the sun.  This eclipse will be total near Iceland and Greenland at its peak with the greatest eclipse at 65N 25W over Iceland and will also be total in the area of Spain, Portugal, Southern France and northern Italy. These areas could see significantly enhanced seismicity beginning in several days. This eclipse will be partial in the northeastern U.S. and throughout Canada.  Longitudes which are sub-solar (local solar noon) are near 85 West longitude while those at local solar midnight are centered near 95 East longitude. In the west these include area of Central and northwestern South America and eastern U.S. and in the east areas of western Indonesia, Myanmar, and eastern China. These areas are likely to see tidal triggering with this new moon. A moderately large to large tidally triggered earthquake is considered moderately likely with this new moon." (August 9-12, 2026)

 

It was a relatively quiet day in global seismicity today. Quiet seismic

days such as this often occur when triggering mechanisms are quiet or absent.

In the current conditions there were not solar flares of C- or higher energy

levels, ocean storms were at moderate levels, and there were no notable

geomagnetic storms. Much of the unusual seismicity of the day - including

a swarm of minor earthquakes in Spain and a light M 3.9 in the San Francisco

Bay area of California were probably promoted by energy from the M 7.4 in

Colombia two days ago or to the new moon and solar eclipse of August 12, 2026.

These types of earthquakes are expected to continue for several more days.

 

The strongest earthquake of the day was an M 5.6 in the Kermadec Islands, New Zealand.

It was not reported felt in this remote area.

 

This earthquake occurred at 102 degrees from the M 7.4 in Colombia and

was probably promoted by energy from that source.

 

 

O: 13AUG2026 16:11:46  28.8S  176.2W MW=5.6  EMSC   KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION      

 

EMSC reported a series of light earthquakes in Spain today.

These events are occurring at an epicenter which was the last

location where the total eclipse of the sun of August 12 was observed

and were likely being promoted by tidal stresses associated with that eclipse.

 

O: 13AUG2026 19:55:49  37.1N    2.4W ML=1.7  EMSC   SPAIN                        

O: 13AUG2026 19:55:49  37.1N    2.4W ML=1.7  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 14AUG2026 06:39:24  37.1N    3.6W ML=1.9  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 13AUG2026 19:01:08  37.3N    2.0W ML=2.0  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 13AUG2026 19:05:11  37.3N    2.0W ML=1.6  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 13AUG2026 19:09:23  37.3N    2.0W ML=1.8  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 13AUG2026 19:46:07  37.3N    1.9W ML=1.5  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 13AUG2026 19:56:52  37.3N    2.0W ML=2.4  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 13AUG2026 19:58:57  37.3N    2.0W ML=2.1  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 13AUG2026 20:26:59  37.3N    2.0W ML=1.5  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 13AUG2026 21:19:21  37.3N    2.0W ML=2.1  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 13AUG2026 21:35:52  37.3N    2.0W ML=2.0  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 14AUG2026 05:25:54  37.3N    1.9W ML=2.3  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 13AUG2026 18:53:25  37.4N    2.2W ML=2.3  EMSC   SPAIN

O: 13AUG2026 10:12:28  38.4N    0.8W mb=1.7  EMSC   SPAIN

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.5 in Malibu, Los Angeles, California was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Malibu, Los Angeles, California with III in Camarillo, and II in Thousand Oaks, Malibu, Westlande Village, Newbury Park, Santa Monica, Simi Valley, Agoura Hills.

 

O: 14AUG2026 04:58:48  34.0N  118.9W ML=2.5  EMSC   CHANNEL ISLANDS REG., CALIFORN

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.9 in the Hayward Fault east of San Francisco, California was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Hayward Fault east of San Francisco, California with IV in Oakland, San Jose, San Lorenzo, San Leandro, Alameda, and III in Castro Valley, San Francisco among others.

This epicenter is at the same location as a series of earthquakes on that fault

that has been occurring off-and-on for nearly a year. The last earthquake

in this sequence with M>=3.9 occurred on February 2, 2026. At the time this summary noted:

   

"The series of light to moderate earthquakes continued today in the East San Francisco

Bay, California area with maximum magnitude of M 4.2-4.4. At least 45 earthquakes

of M>=2.0 have been recorded in this area near San Ramon, California in the

past 24 hours. This is the strongest series thus far in this swarm. A somewhat

similar but smaller series occurred on November 10-11, 2025. This followed

an X-flare on November 9, 2025. This situation was similar to what was seen

today with this series closely related to the series of X-class flares today.

At the time this summary made the connection between these events in the

San Francisco Bay area and major solar flares as:

 

 

"A series of light earthquakes shook the San Francisco Bay, California area today.

The largest of these was an M 3.8 according to NEIC. NEIC reported it and other

events in the area today were widely felt in the San Francisco Bay area. Intensity IV

was reported from San Ramon, Diablo, Danville, San Mateo, San Ramon and Dublin with III in Palo Alto, Berkeley, Pleasanton, San Leandro, Discovery Bay, Daly City, Lafayette, Alamo, Oakland, Fremont, Livermore, San Leandro, Concord, Richmond, Benicia, Miliptas, San Francisco, Alameda, Hercules, San Lorenzo, Oakland, Emeryville, Union city, Concord, among others.

 

This is the strongest earthquake in the region of the San Francisco Bay area

of California since an M 4.3 northwest of this epicenter on September 22, 2025

but the last earthquake nearer to this epicenter of M>=3.8 was an M 3.9 on March 18, 2025

with these two earthquakes the only such event in the area in the past year.

At the time of the M 4.3 on September 22, 2025, this summary noted in part:

 

 

"Today's earthquake of M 4.3 in San Francisco, California is the strongest

recorded within about 50 km of San Francisco since an M 4.5 two years ago on

October 15, 2019. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The activity in San Francisco began several hours before local solar midnight

and was probably promoted by strong tidal stresses associated with the full moon

 

...

 

The last event in the San Francisco Bay area within about 75 km of today's epicenter

which exceeded M 4.5 occurred on August 24, 2014 when an M 6.0 hit the Napa area.

The last within the San Francisco Bay area was an M 5.6 more than 11 years ago on October 31, 2007." (October 15, 2019)

 

The last earthquake felt in this area of San Francisco (M 3.3) occurred on September 15 at the beginning of the strong geomagnetic storm aand

was noted in this summary as:

 

"A light earthquake of M 3.3 was widely felt in the San Francisco, California area today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III in Central California at Danville, Antioch, Brentwood, Clayton, Concord, Pittsburg, San Ramon, Walnut Creek, Novato and Santa Rosa with II shking in Salinas, Mountain View, San Francisco, Discovery Bay, Concord, Hayward, Livermore, Oakley, Dublin, San Ramon, Walnut Creek, Oakland, Santa Clara, Stockton, Oakdale, Wilton and Sacramento.

EMSC reported a quick shake in California at Antioch, Pittsburg, Clayton, Brentwood, Bay Point, Waldon, and Concord.

This event occurred near local solar noon and may have been promoted by tidal

stresses which maximize near this hour. The last event within about 50 km

of this epicenter in the San Francisco, California area with M>=3.2 occurred

on June 9, 2025. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"A light M 3.2 was widely felt today in the area of San Francisco, California. NEIC receieved nearly 5000 felt reports from this event. These include maximum intensity IV in Half Moon Bay, Crockett, Hercules, Pinole, Port Costa, Rodeo, Berkeley, El Sobrante and III in Miramonte, Redwood City, Sunnyvale, San Francisco, San Mateo, American Canyon, Benicia, El Cerrito, Fairfield, Martinez, Napa, Orinda, Vallejo, Oakland, Albany, Richmond, San Pablo, San Rafael, Fairfax, Mill Valley, San Jose, Daly City, among others." (June 9, 2025, September 22, 2025)

 

The area of San Francisco was at exactly midnight local solar time when the

X1.7 flare occurred earlier in the day. This had been noted in the previous

issue of this summary as:

 

"It is of some interest that the X1.7 flare which appears to have triggered the

M 6.8 in Northern Honshu, Japan occurred while the area of San Francisco

and the western U.S. was near local solar midnight. This summary has

argued on several recent previous occasions that such a flare could trigger

a moderate earthquake in that area. Readers should be aware of this possibility

in the next several days. This was noted on October 26 issue of this

summary as:

 

"NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.8 in Central California was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central California in Big Sur.

This continues a series of light earthquakes in Central California over the

past several days which has included a series in northern and southern San

Francisco Bay. As these events area located near 103 degrees from the

recent earthquakes in Mindanao and Leyte of M>7 it is likely they are

being promoted by energy from those sources. A moderate to strong earthquake

in this area of California is still considered likely in the near future.

Such a quake is most likely near local solar noon or midnight in conjuction

with a strong M- or X-class solar flare." (October 26, 2025, November 9, 2025)

 

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

4640       0654   0733      0843   X1.7      (November 9, 2025)   3.2E-01  *

Honshu M 6.8 08:03 UT

Andreanof Is. M 4.0 07:49 UT

Honshu M 4.5 07:36 UT

Ryukyu M 3.7 07:34 UT

Spain M 2.8 07:29 UT

Santa Barbara M 2.5 07:16 UT

Oaxaca M 4.5 07:06 UT

Taiwan M 4.1 07:01 UT

 

4720       1651   XXXX      1735   RSP       (November 9, 2025)   4.4E-03  

4730       1748   1807      1810   C3.4      (November 9, 2025)   4.4E-03  

San Francisco M 2.3 18:00 UT M 2.3 17:48 UT M 3.8 17:39 UT

 

It is likely that the mainshock was promoted by SFE related to these

two solar flares." (November 10, 2025)

 

The X1.6 flare maximized near 08:14 UT, a time when western U.S. is at local

solar midnight and subject to Solar Flare effects. It should not come as

a surprise to readers, therefore that events of M 3.7-3.9 and M 4.4 occurred in San Francisco

California after this flare as San Francisco was at local solar midnight

when this flare reached its maximum output. In particular, the M 4.4 earthquake

at 15:01 UT exactly coincides with the maximum output of an M 4.0 flare.  The M 3.7 was followed by aftershocks

including an M 4.4 and M 3.3. EMSC reported these events with loud noise and lots of shaking in San Ramon, Blackhawk, Dublin, Diablo, Pleasanton, Castro Valley, Lafayette, Pleasant Hill, Fremont, Pacheco, Martinez, Sunnyvale and Vallejo, California.

NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in California at Danville, San Ramon, Fremont, Concord, Dublin, Burlingame and III in Walnut Creek and Pleasanton.

This is the one of the strongest event to date in the series of quakes in eastern San Francisco Bay near San Ramon.

Similar events occurred starting with an M 3.9 on March 18, 2025 and continued with

quakes of M 3.8-4.0 on November 9 and December 20-21, 2025. The largst of these was an M 4.0 on December 20, 2025.

 

At the time this summary noted:

 

"The swarm near San Ramon east of San Francisco, California continued today.

The largest of today's events was an M 3.8. NEIC reported it was felt with

intensity IV in California at San Ramon, Dublin, Castro Valley, San Jose, Pleasanton, Danville, and II in Walnut Creek, San Anselmo and San Francisco.

Other events in the swarm were felt with intensity upt o IV in San Lorenzo, and III in Castro Valley, Dublin, San Ramon, Alamda, San

Bruno, Danville and II in Pleasanton, Hayward, and Morago. A widespread

power outage also occurred in San Francisco today but was probably not

related to the current elevated seismicity in that area. This summary

had reported last on this swarm in the previous issue as:

 

"The major swarm of light to moderate earthquakes in the eastern San Francisco

California Bay area today included several events of M 4.0 and M 3.8-3.9 which

were widely felt. NEIC reported more than 2000 people responded to them with

felt reports from each of these events. These included intensity V in California at Lafayette,

Hayward, IV in Brentwood, San Lorenzo, Oakland, San Jose, San Ramon, Vallejo, Union City, Alamo, Dublin, San Francisco and III in Millbrae, Fremont and Pleasanton among others." (December 20, 2025)

 

These epicenters are located at 102 degrees from central Philippines and at the

fifth node (72 degrees) from Hokkaido and may have been promoted by energy

from those sources." (December 20-21, 2025, February 2, 2026)

 

 

A moderate to strong earthquake will probably hit this epicenter in the near

future when triggering and environmental conditions are favorable.

 

Today's M 3.9 in the San Francisco Bay was at the seventh node (52 degrees) from

the M 7.4 in Colombia and was probably promoted by energy from that source.

It was also likely promoted by the new moon and solar eclipse of August 12.

 

O: 13AUG2026 15:30:04  37.8N  122.2W MW=3.9  EMSC   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.

O: 13AUG2026 16:07:22  37.8N  122.1W MD=2.6  EMSC   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.

O: 13AUG2026 18:34:26  37.8N  122.1W MD=2.2  EMSC   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.3 in Colombia was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Colombia in San Pedro Valle del Cauca.

NEIC reported it was felt with moderate intensity in Colombia at Balboa, Santa Rosa de Cabal, Armenia, Tulua, Manizales, Villamaria, Cali, La Estrella, Sabaneta, Envigado, Jamundi, San Pedro, Soacha.

 

O: 13AUG2026 14:42:32   4.9N   76.4W MB=4.3  EMSC   COLOMBIA                     

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in Papua New Guinea was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Papua New Guinea in Mount Hagen, Western Highlands.

 

This epicenter is at 141 degrees from Colombia and may have been promoted by

energy from that source.

 

O: 13AUG2026 12:44:56   4.4S  143.9E MB=5.0  EMSC   NEW GUINEA, PAPUA NEW GUINEA 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.6 in Bali, Indonesia was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Bali, Indonesia at Kuta, Bali.

 

O: 13AUG2026 10:23:19   8.5S  114.2E MB=4.6  EMSC   BALI REGION, INDONESIA       

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.9 in Tajikistan  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Tajikistan  in Dushanbe, Khujand, and in Uzbekistan at Salor, Tashkent.

 

O: 14AUG2026 03:39:55  39.0N   70.3E MB=4.9  EMSC   TAJIKISTAN                   

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.5 in Western Iran was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Western Iran in Shush.

 

O: 13AUG2026 21:23:48  32.5N   48.0E MB=4.5  EMSC   WESTERN IRAN                 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.0 in the Iran-Iraq border was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of the Iran-Iraq border in Iraq at Jamjamal, Baghdad, Ramadi Al'Amadiyah.

 

O: 13AUG2026 22:28:00  35.4N   45.1E MB=4.0  EMSC   IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION      

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

 

 

SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

 

Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of  the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models.  Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:

 

 

TROPICAL STORM HERNAN (DEPRESSION 08E) 

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

 

TS    HERNAN   2026-08-14  00:00 UT  17.5N  131.9W   50 kts  North Pacific east of Hawaii                                                             

 

TS Hernan (TD 08E) continued today in the Northern Pacific east of Hawaii with winds up to 50 kts.  It will track to the west and is expected to reach Hawaii as a Tropical Storm around August 18. If it survives and makes landfall in Hawaii (which looks unlikely at this time) a moderate earthquake could occur near the time of landfall. No seismic enhancement at the antipode in the South Indian Ocean is expected.

 

TROPICAL STORM LALA (01C)    

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

 

TS    LALA     2026-08-14  00:00 UT  15.2N  145.7W   50 kts  North Pacific east of Hawaii                                                             

 

TS Lala (TC 01C)  continued today in the Northern Pacific east of Hawaii with winds up to 50 kts.  It will track to the northwest and is expected to reach Hawaii as a Hurricane around August 15-16. A moderate earthquake could occur near the time of landfall of this storm. Seismic enhancement near the antipode in the South Indian Ocean is not expected.

 

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (TD 16W)    

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

 

TS    NANGKA   2026-08-14  00:00 UT  28.4N  153.7E   40 kts  North Pacific                                                              

 

TD Nangka (TD 16W) continued today in the Northern Pacific with winds up to 40 kts.  It will track to the northeast and not encounter seismic areas in the next several days. No seismicity is expected to be enhanced near this storm or at its antipode at this time.

 

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PEILOU (13W)  

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

 

TD    PEILOU   2026-08-14  00:00 UT  33.8N  170.2E   40 kts  North Pacific                                                               

 

TD Peilou (TD 13W) continued today in the Northern Pacific with winds up to 40 kts.  It will track to the northeast and not encounter seismic areas in the next several days. It is expected to dissipate in the north Pacific by late August 14. No seismicity is expected to be enhanced near this storm or at its antipode at this time.

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date

of August 13, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.

The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes

which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by

immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes

which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have

been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

XXXX       0615   0701      0830   C4.1      (August 14, 2026)   9.4E-03

 

No solar flares of C- or higher class were reported by SWPC today,

 

* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list

                                                       

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:  active August 14-15, unsettled August 16.  Solar M-flare chance: 10% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%

 

AP Indicies: global: 7, high: 4, mid-latitude: 8, time of max k: 22:00-24:00 UT; Max k: 3 Global Kp 3.00 2200-2400, August 13; Sunspot Number: 101; Radio Flux: 108

 

 

The Hp30 index (GFZ) reached 3.66 on August 13, 2026 around 23:30-24:00 UT and 21:00 to 21:30 UT UT. Otherwise no geomagnetic storms were observed.

 

A strong sudden pulse was recorded on the GOES-19 satellite magnetometer on August 14, 2026

starting at about 01:15 to 01:35 UT. An arcjet maneuver corrected the satellite position

starting at 01:40 UT and normal operations resumed when the orbit resumed

with expected parameters around 03:15 UT. The beginning of this excursion

in the magnetic field was accompanied by an M 5.0 in Mindanao, Philippines at

August 14, 2026 also at 01:15 UT.

 

 

August 13, 2026

 

Notable earthquakes and events:

 

The new moon and solar eclipse  arrived on August 12, 2026 at 17:37 UT. This will include a total eclipse of the sun.  This eclipse will be total near Iceland and Greenland at its peak with the greatest eclipse at 65N 25W over Iceland and will also be total in the area of Spain, Portugal, Southern France and northern Italy. These areas could see significantly enhanced seismicity beginning in several days. This eclipse will be partial in the northeastern U.S. and throughout Canada.  Longitudes which are sub-solar (local solar noon) are near 85 West longitude while those at local solar midnight are centered near 95 East longitude. In the west these include area of Central and northwestern South America and eastern U.S. and in the east areas of western Indonesia, Myanmar, and eastern China. These areas are likely to see tidal triggering with this new moon. A moderately large to large tidally triggered earthquake is considered moderately likely with this new moon." (August 9-12, 2026)

 

A series of moderate earthquakes occurred today in the Greenland Sea with M 4.7, 4.5 ...

These earthquakes were not reported felt in this remote area. The strongest

of these was an M 4.7 within minutes of local solar midnight. This area of

Greenland say the total eclipse of the sun (see above) several hours before this sequence

began. It it likely that strong tidal stresses with the eclipse helped

promoted this activity. The last earthquake in the Greenland Sea within about

200 km of these events with M>=4.7 occurred as an M 5.7 on November 12, 2025.

At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.7 in the Greenland Sea  was not felt. This

epicenter was within minutes of local solar midnight when the major geomagnetic

storm occurred near 00:00 UT early on November 12. It was probably promoted

by energy associated with that storm at high latitudes.

 

This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter in the

Greenland Sea since an M M 6.2 on May 24, 2012 (following a major annular

solar eclipse on May 20-21, 2012). At the time this summary noted

this as the largest earthquake in the area since at least 1990 as:

 

"The strong activation of seismicity at high latitudes which we reported on

in our summary yesterday continued today. The strongest earthquake in the

world was in the Greenland/Norwegian Sea area with M 6.2. This epicenter

is about 600 km northwest of Tronso, Norway and 1500 km northeast of Reykjavik, Iceland.

No tsunami was expected or observed. This is a remote area and there were

no initial reports of damage or casualties.

 

...

 

This is the strongest earthquake ever recorded within 200 km of this epicenter

in the Norwegian Sea. A similar event of M 6.1-6.2 hit the area on June 10, 1929

with events of M 6.0 on January 29, 1959, May 31, 1971 and August 20, 2009. A

41-43 year recurrence can be discerned in this data with strong events in 1929,

1971 and 2012 in late May to early June. This suggests about 40-50 years to

build enough strain in the area to support a strong earthquake. The immediate

trigger may have been the strong geomagnetic storm at high latitudes which

has been occurring over the past two days." (May 24, 2012)

 

This event of May 2012 was also closely associated with a solar eclipse of

May 20-21, 2012." (November 12, 2025)

 

Readers may find the reference to a solar eclipse with this earthquake in

May, 2012 given the current coincidence with today's solar eclipse.

The eclipse of May, 2012 was an annular solar eclipse that lasted nearly

six minutes maximum (a long eclipse duration). The track of totality

for that eclipse (with maximum at 23:53 UT May 20, 2012) ended over northern

North America.

 

This epicenter is at the fifth node (72 degrees) from the landfall location

of Typhoon Dolphin and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 13AUG2026 00:33:27  73.5N    7.8E MB=4.7  EMSC   GREENLAND SEA                

O: 13AUG2026 02:03:22  73.5N    7.8E MB=4.1  EMSC   GREENLAND SEA                

O: 13AUG2026 02:38:34  73.5N    7.7E MB=4.0  EMSC   GREENLAND SEA                

O: 13AUG2026 02:53:10  73.5N    8.2E MB=4.5  EMSC   GREENLAND SEA                

O: 13AUG2026 03:09:16  73.9N   11.3E MB=3.7  EMSC   NORWEGIAN SEA                

 

The strongest earthquake felt in the world today was an M 5.5 in El Salvador - three minutes before the M 4.7 in the Greenlands Sea (see above). NEIC reported it was widely felt in El Salvador and Nicaragua with IV shaking in El Salvador at Intipuca, La Union and III i Mejicanos, Santo Tomas, Usulutan, Antiguo Cuscatlan, Nueva San Salvador and in Nicaragua with III in Managua, Diriamba, Ciudad Sandino, Bocana de Paiwas Atlantico Sur, and in Escazu, San Jose, Costa Rica.

EMSC reported moderate shaking in Nicaragua at Corinto, Nagarote, Ciudad, Sandino, Managua,  in El Salvador at Santiago Nonualco, Soyapango, Antiguo Cuscatlan, Santa Tecla, Ayutuxtepeque,  and in Guatemala at Fraijanes.

This earthquake occurred at the sub-solar latitude for this date and was likely

triggered by tidal stresses.  It is the strongest earthquake in El Salvador within about 200 km of this

epicenter since an M 6.1 on August 28, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.1 off the coast of El Salvador. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to IV in El Salvador in La Libertad, Zaragoza, Nuevo Cuscatlan, Nueva San Salvador, Antiguo Cuscatlan, Guaymango, Ayutuxtepeque, Quezaltepeque, Apopa and Guazapa and in portions of Guatemala.

EMSC reported strong shaking in El Salvador at San Salvador, Nueva San Salvador, Apopa, and in Guatemala at Colonia Valles De Vista Hermosa, Colonia Valle Dorado, La Floresta, Guatemala City, No major damage or tsunamis were associated with this earthquake. Several aftershock

and foreshocks were not reported felt except for an M 4.2 felt lightly in San Salvador, Santa Ana, El Salvador and in Guatemala City, Guatemala. This event was probably promoted by tidal effects as it lies near the longitude

of maximum tidal stress with the previous full moon as noted in previous issues

of this summary

 

...

 

Today's event occurred at the height of a strong geomagnetic storm - the strongest

in the past month and may have been promoted by geomagnetic effects. This is the strongest earthquake near El Salvador since an M 6.5 on July 19, 2023.

At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.5-6.6 in El Salvador, Central America. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity VIII in El Salvador at Chirilagua, San Miguel; VII in Concepcion, Batres Usulutan, VI in Intipuca La Union; V in Usulutan, IV in San Aleo, San Miguel, Santiago de Maria, San Luis la Herradura La Paz and lesser shaking in El Vijo and Ciudad Barrios, San Miguel.

This event was preceded by several light foreshocks.

Enhanced activity in this region had been expected at this time as it lies near the

longitude of maximum tidal stress with this new moon as discussed previously

in this summary ...

 

The new moon was expected to promote seismicity in Central America near 90 West

longitude (see tidal forecast above). Two groups of earthquakes today indicated

by their timing to have been triggered by tidal stresses with this alignment.

They occurred near local solar midnight in an area where strong tidal stresses

were expected with this new moon in the area off the coast of El Salvador (M 3.9, 3.9)..." (July 19, 2023, August 28, 2024)

 

 

At 88 West longitude this epicenter is at the longitude of maximum stress

with today's new moon (see above) and was probably promoted by strong

tides with that eclipse alignment.

 

This epicenter is at the third node (120 degrees) from Kyushu and may have

been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 13AUG2026 00:30:04  12.6N   88.3W MB=5.5  NEIC   EL SALVADOR                  

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in Kyrgyzstan  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of  Kyrgyzstan in Biskek and in Almaty, Kazakhstan.

EMSC reported moderat shaking in Kyrgyzstan at Chuy, Kant, Bishkek, Lebedinovka, Georgiyevka, Cholpan-Ata, Kyzyl-Suu, and in Kazakhstan at Kapshagay, Chemolgan, Almaty, Pervomayka, Burunday, and in Salor and Tashkent, Uzbekistan.

This earthquake may have been promoted by a moderate solar flare. It occurred

within minutes of of local solar noon at the start of solar flare 1840, the

only C-class solar flare of August 12, 2026. Preliminary data from SWPC for this

flare follow:

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

1840       0715   0733      0745   C1.7      (August 12, 2026)   7.4E-04  

 

 

O: 12AUG2026 07:14:51  42.0N   75.4E MB=5.0  EMSC   KYRGYZSTAN                   

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.0 in the South Sandwich Islands.

It was not reported felt in this remote area. This event occurred near local

solar noon and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses with the new moon/eclipse

today. The last earthquake of M>=6 within about 200 km of this event in

the southern South Sandwich Islands was an M 6.0 on December 3, 2021 - the

last of a series near this epicenter of M 6.0, 6.3, 6.3 during 2021. The

only other such event in this area of M>=6 in the past 35 years was an M 6.3 

on October 5, 1997.

 

This epicenter is located at 143 degrees from the landfall of Typhoon Dolphin

in China and at the fourth node from Chiapas, Mexico (90 degrees) and the fifth

node (72 degrees) from Colombia and may have been promoted by energy from

those sources.

 

 

O: 12AUG2026 11:47:12  60.2S   29.0W MB=6.0  NEIC   SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS       

 

Strong eruptions of Kilauea Volcano in Hawaii (eruption episode 53) and Mt. Etna in Sicily, Italy

occurred with the new moon and solar eclipse of August 12, 2026. Meanwhile the

strong eruption of Fuego near Guatemala City continued unabated. The eruption

of Mt. Etna opened a new vent and lava flows. Central Italy and Sicily were

at the end of the total eclipse path of the sun and may have been promoted

by strong tidal stresses at that time. Hawaii saw a significant earthquake

of M 5.2 earlier in the day in the Loi'hi Seamount south of the big island

of Hawaii and this eruptive activity which included lava spouting may be part of that seismic enhancement

with the eclipse/new moon. Videos of both of these eruptions are available

from numerous sources on the web.

 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.4 in Jalisco, Mexico was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Jalisco, Mexico in Armeria, Colima.

 

O: 13AUG2026 05:02:08  18.8N  104.1W MB=4.4  NEIC   JALISCO, MEXICO              

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.1 in Pakistan was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Pakistan in Peshawar.

 

O: 13AUG2026 00:35:18  36.8N   74.4E MB=5.1  NEIC   PAKISTAN                     

 

NEIC reported moderate earthquakes of M 5.1 and M 4.3 in Fiji and Tonga today.

These events occurred near local solar noon and midnight respectively

and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresse with the new moon today.

 

The epicenters of these events are located at 103-104 degrees from the M 7.4 in Colombia

and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 12AUG2026 22:13:33  17.9S  178.6W MB=5.1  NEIC   FIJI ISLANDS                 

O: 12AUG2026 12:42:26  23.4S  179.8W MB=4.3  NEIC   FIJI ISLANDS                 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.6 in Los Angeles, California was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Los Angeles, California with III in Valencia, Stevenson Ranch, Simi Valley and II in Newhall, Santa Clarita, Canyon Country, Castaic, Chatsworth, Altadena, Reseda, Duarte, Newbury Park and Porter Ranch.

EMSC reported moderate jolt in Stevenson Ranch, Santa Clarita, Santa Susana.

 

O: 12AUG2026 20:56:29  34.4N  118.6W MB=2.6  NEIC   LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA      

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M 3.7 in Central Italy was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Central Italy in Livorno, Pisa, Madonna dell'Acqua, Vecchiano-Nodica, Ponsacco, Porcari, and Pescia.

Smaller aftershocks were also felt. This epicenter is located at the end of

the total solar eclipse path of August 12 and may have been promoted by strong

tidal stresses with that eclipse. It follows an M 4.2 which occurred near

the same epicenter near Pisa, Italy on  August 3, 2026. At the time this summary

noted in this regard: 

 

"The earthquake in central Italy was at 103 degrees from the eye of ST Dolphin

on August 3, 2026. EMSC reported this earthquake was felt  widely in central

Italy with strong motion and noise in Marina di Pisa-Tirrenia-Calambrone, Livorno, Pisa, Madonna dell'Acqua, Uliveto Terme, Caprona, Quattro Strade, Fornacette Asciano, Ponsacco, Pontedera, Ripafratta-Farneta, Calcinaia, Viareggion, Cascine-La Croce, among others.

No major damage was reported. This is an unusual earthquake location and

could affect some old structures such as the leaning tower of Pisa as the

epicenter was a couple of km from the City of Pisa. The last earthquake

within about 100 km of this epicenter in Central Italy with M>=4.2 occurred

as an M 5.1 about 100 km east of this epicenter on September 18, 2023.

At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"An unusually large M 5.1 struck the area of Northern Italy today. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity IV in San Godenzo, Toscana, Brisighella Emilia-Romagna, Castrocaro Terme and Terra del Sole and Forli with lesser shaking in Borgo, San Lornzo, Scarperia, Riolo Terme, Pontassieve and Imola among others.

This is the strongest earthquake in northern Italy within about 200 km of

this epicenter since an M 5.6 about 200 km to the east on November 9, 2022 but the

last within about 100 km of today's epicenter was an 6.1 on May 20, 2012 and and M 5.5

aftershock on May 29, 2012. At the time of the May 20, 2012 event this summary noted:

 

"Three strong earthquakes of M 5.8-6.1 hit in the world today and were probably

triggered by tidal forces associated with the upcoming solar eclipse which

will occur later today. The most widely felt and damaging of today's events

occurred as an M 6.1 in  northern Italy ...

 

The last earthquake in northern Italy of similar or larger magnitude (and the only such

event in the past 22 years) was an M 6.4 on September 26, 1997." (May 20, 2012, September 18, 2023, August 3, 2026)

 

Oh, and by the way, about that earthquake on May 20, 2012 (see above) in Italy  - the

date should ring a bell with readers of this issue of the summary. It was noted

above in relation to today's earthquakes in the Greenland Sea because of the

annular eclipse of the sun on that date and was referenced at that time in

this summary as:

 

 

"The strongest earthquakes after the M 6.0-6.3 in Italy last night in the world occurred along the path

of the total solar eclipse and within several hours of that event today.

 

...

 

A number of moderate aftershocks continued to rock the area of northern Italy

today. The largest were around magnitude 5 and NEIC reported intensity VII

with damage in Crespellano and V in Ravenna, Ferrara, and Conegliano, Italy.

Lesser intensities of II-IV were reported in France at Cannes, Reims, in Switzerland

at Sant'Antonio, and in  Slovenia at Koper and Ljubljana. Lesser shaking in

Italy was reported to NEIC from the communities of Arezzo, Battaglia Terme, Bergamo,

Bologna, Brescia, Caldonazzo, Campodarsego, Samposampiero, Carpi, Castelnuovo,

Castelnuovo Rengone, Conegliano, Conselve, Correggio, Crespellano, Desenzano

del Garda, Egna, Florence, Genos, Granarolo Dell'Emilia, Lecco, Lodi, Lugo,

Mesola, Milan, Mirano, Modena, Monselioe, Montebelluna, Montegrotto Terme, Monza, Novara, Padova, Palazzolo

sull'Oglio, Parma, Pisa, Pontedera, Reggion nell'Emilia, San Donato Milanese, San

Larzzaro di Savena, San Pierto in Gu, Santa Maria di Sala, Spinea, Teolo,

Turin, Varese, Venice, Verona and Vicenza, Italy. Smaller aftershocks were

felt with intensity up to IV-V in Veneto and Trentino-Alto Adige areas of Italy.

 

Associated Press reported the mainshock of M 6.0-6.3 north of Bologna

killed at least seven people and toppled centuries old buildings. It also

caused enormous damage to the region's Cheese production. In one farm

alone 400,000 wheels of Parmesan and Grana Padano Cheese were destroyed

when the racks on which they were aging collapsed. Total agricultural losses including

cheese, livestock and machinery in the Po River Valley is estimated at about

a quarter billion U.S. Dollars. Many factories collapsed in the area

and most of the dead were workers at overnight shifts. Three others were killed

by heart attacks from the quake. Other factories were near collapse and

aftershocks could bring them down. Many of the regional landmarks were

also severely damaged including most of the historic center of Finale Emilia,

the city hall of Sant'Agostino and the 13th century clock tower which was

split in half in Finale Emilia. The last big quake to hit the region occurred

in the 1300's. It is estimated that about 10% of the cheese from the area

will be unusable. Cheese from the area generates more than $2 billion

in annual consumer sales. Nearly 5000 people have been displaced by

the earthquakes. The last earthquake within 100 km of this epicenter of M>6 was

and M 6.3 on September 7, 1920. The only other such event of this size

was an M 6.2 on February 25, 1695. The event in the 1300's was damaging

in the region but was probably not of M>6." (May 21, 2012)

 

Other strong earthquakes at the time of the May 20, 2012 solar eclipse

occurred in the South Chile Rise (M 6.3); northern Honshu, Japan (M 6.3, 6.0); the

Macquarie Islands (M 6.0) and the Bonin Islands, Japan (M 6.0). A doublet

of events of M 6.3 each occurred with the following full moon on June 4, 2012

in northern Colombia and Panama.

 

O: 12AUG2026 08:57:09  43.6N   10.1E MB=3.7  EMSC   CENTRAL ITALY                 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

 

 

SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

 

Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of  the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models.  Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:

 

 

 

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL 

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

 

TS  CRISTOBAL  2026-08-13  00:00 UT  38.6N   38.2W   35 kts  North Atlantic near Azores                                                        

 

TS Cristobal  continued today in the Northern Atlantic with winds up to 35 kts.  It will track to the east and is expected to dissipate quickly. Some seismic enhancement near the Azores is possible with this storm. Seismic enhancement at the antipode south of Australia is not expected.

 

TROPICAL STORM HERNAN (DEPRESSION 08E) 

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

 

TS    HERNAN   2026-08-13  00:00 UT  18.1N  131.8W   45 kts  North Pacific east of Hawaii                                                             

 

TS Hernan (TD 08E) continued today in the Northern Pacific east of Hawaii with winds up to 45 kts.  It will track to the west and is expected to reach Hawaii as a Tropical Storm around August 18. A moderate earthquake could occur near the time of landfall of this storm. No seismic enhancement at the antipode in the South Indian Ocean is expected.

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE 01C     

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

 

TC    01C      2026-08-13  00:00 UT  14.7N  144.1W   45 kts  North Pacific east of Hawaii                                                              

 

TC 01C  continued today in the Northern Pacific east of Hawaii with winds up to 45 kts.  It will track to the northwest and is expected to reach Hawaii as a Hurricane around August 15-16. A moderate earthquake could occur near the time of landfall of this storm. Seismic enhancement near the antipode in the South Indian Ocean is not expected.

 

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (TD 16W)    

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

 

TS    NANGKA   2026-08-13  00:00 UT  27.8N  149.9E   45 kts  North Pacific                                                              

 

TD Nangka (TD 16W) continued today in the Northern Pacific with winds up to 45 kts.  It will track to the northeast and not encounter seismic areas in the next several days. No seismicity is expected to be enhanced near this storm or at its antipode at this time.

 

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PEILOU (13W)  

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

 

TD    PEILOU   2026-08-13  00:00 UT  32.0N  168.0E   40 kts  North Pacific                                                              

 

TD Peilou (TD 13W) continued today in the Northern Pacific with winds up to 40 kts.  It will track to the northeast and not encounter seismic areas in the next several days. No seismicity is expected to be enhanced near this storm or at its antipode at this time.

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date

of August 12, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.

The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes

which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by

immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes

which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have

been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

1840       0715   0733      0745   C1.7      (August 12, 2026)   7.4E-04 *

 

 

* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list

                                                       

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:  quiet August 13 activer August 14-15.  Solar M-flare chance: 10% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%

 

AP Indicies: global: 8, high: 15, mid-latitude: 8, time of max k: 12:00-14:00 UT; Max k: 4 Global Kp 2.67 1800-2100, August 12; Sunspot Number: 82; Radio Flux: 100

 

 

The Hp30 index (GFZ) reached 3.33 on August 12, 2026 around 19:30-20:00 UT and 14:00 to 14:30 UT UT. No geomagnetic storms were observed.

 

 

August 12, 2026

 

Notable earthquakes and events:

 

"The new moon and solar eclipse will arrive on August 12, 2026 at 17:37 UT. This will include a total eclipse of the sun.  This eclipse will be total near Iceland and Greenland at its peak with the greatest eclipse at 65N 25W over Iceland and will also be total in the area of Spain, Portugal, Southern France and northern Italy. These areas could see significantly enhanced seismicity beginning in several days. This eclipse will be partial in the northeastern U.S. and throughout Canada.  Longitudes which are sub-solar (local solar noon) are near 85 West longitude while those at local solar midnight are centered near 95 East longitude. In the west these include area of Central and northwestern South America and eastern U.S. and in the east areas of western Indonesia, Myanmar, and eastern China. These areas are likely to see tidal triggering with this new moon. A moderately large to large tidally triggered earthquake is considered moderately likely with this new moon." (August 9-12, 2026)

 

Two unusual earthquakes accompanied the new moon and solar eclipse today.

These were an M 5.2 south of Hawaii near the Loi'hi Seamount (now called the Kama'ehuakanaloa undersea volcano) and volcanic center

and an M 4.6 in southern Australia.

 

The earthquake in southern Australia of M 4.6 was quite unusual and appears

to have been triggered by a combination of stresses related to the solar

eclipse and new moon today and to the M 7.4 in Colombia yesterday.

A strong electromagnetic pulse was recorded on the GOES-18 magnetometer

today at 18:00-18:10 UT (measured at 137 West longitude satellite position). This

led to the need to exercise an arcjet orbital correction at 18:01 UT.

The procedure returned the satellite to the expected orbit and normal operations

resumed by 19:15 UT. This summary has been following a series of such

anomalous and sudden pulses in magnetic field registered at GOES satellites

for more than half a year. In most cases these coincide within a few minutes

with a strong or unusual earthquake. Today's magnetic field excursion

(within a minute or two of 18:00 UT) was simultaneous with the M 4.6 in

Southern Australia (at 18:10 UT on August 11). An earthquake of M 4.3 also

occurred within minutes of local solar noon (at 18:05 UT) in Ecuador with

this magnetic pulse.  The cause of these pairings is currently under investigation.

 

This earthquake in Western (and Southern) Australia is the strongest

event within about 250 km of this epicenter since an M 4.6 on December 11, 2022,

the only such event in western Australia in at least 35 years.

At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"An earthquake of M 4.6 was reported shortly after the M 6.0 Mexico City quake in the region of Western Australia. NEIC reported it may have been felt as far as Victoria, Australia.

This is the strongest earthquake within about 250 km in Western Australia

in at least 35 years.  This earthquake occurred near the longitude of maximum tidal stress with the

full moon of December 8, 2022 and occurred near local solar midnight when

tidal stresses are prominent and may have been promoted by those stresses to

occur at this time as noted in this and previous issues of this summary" (December 11, 2022)

 

 

This epicenter in Australia is at 145 degrees from the M 7.4 in Colombia

and 141 degrees from Chiapas and at the sixth node (60 degrees) from the

landfall position of Typhoon Dolphin and may have been promoted by

energy from those sources. It is also near the antipode of the path of

totality of the solar eclipse (in the north Atlantic near the Azores) today.

 

These earthquakes in Ecuador and Australia which were simultaneous with and may also have been promoted

(as may have the geomagnetic excursion at GOES) by SFE from the first

C-class solar flare of the day. Preliminary data on this flare from

SWPC follow.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

1740       1800   1807      1812   C1.7      (August 11, 2026)   9.2E-04  

Ecuador M 4.3 18:05 UT

Western Australia M 4.6 18:10 UT

 

 

O: 11AUG2026 18:10:24  31.5S  126.5E MB=4.6  EMSC   WESTERN AUSTRALIA            

 

The new moon and solar eclipse will arrive on August 12, 2026 at 17:37 UT. This will include a total eclipse of the sun.  This eclipse will be total near Iceland and Greenland at its peak with the greatest eclipse at 65N 25W over Iceland and will also be total in the area of Spain, Portugal, Southern France and northern Italy. These areas could see significantly enhanced seismicity beginning in several days. This eclipse will be partial in the northeastern U.S. and throughout Canada.  Longitudes which are sub-solar (local solar noon) are near 85 West longitude while those at local solar midnight are centered near 95 East longitude. In the west these include area of Central and northwestern South America and eastern U.S. and in the east areas of western Indonesia, Myanmar, and eastern China. These areas are likely to see tidal triggering with this new moon. A moderately large to large tidally triggered earthquake is considered moderately likely with this new moon." (August 9-12, 2026)

 

The earthquake in Hawaii followed an uptick in activity at the Loi'hi Seamount

starting on August 10. NEIC reported the M 5.2 was felt with intensity IV in Hawaii at Laupahoehoe; III in Pahala, ?Honomu, Hawaii National Park, Volcano and II in Mountain View, Honolulu, Keaau, Captain Cook, Hilo, Pahoa, Papaikou, Kailua Kona, Naalehu, Pepeekeo.

 

The last earthquake near Loi'hi with M>5.2 was an

M 6.2 on October 10, 2021, the only such earthquake in that region in the

past 35 years. Earthquakes of M 5.2 were also ocated near this epicenter

on June 5, 2013; September 13, 2001 and December 9, 1991.

At the time of the October, 2021 event this summary noted:

 

 

"A strong earthquake of M 6.2 shook most of the state of Hawaii, U.S. today. It was reported with maximum intensity VI in Naalehu; V in Hawaii National Park, Captain Cook, Honaunau, Volcano, Mountain View, IV in Pahala, Holualoa, Pahoa, Kealakekua with lesser shaking as far to the west as Waimea.

There have been only two earthquakes in Hawaii with M>=6.2 in the past 30 years - both

north of today's epicenter in central and northern Hawaii Island - on May 4, 2018

with M 6.9 and as an M 6.7 on October 15, 2006. Today's earthquake occurred near the Loi'hi Seamount south of Hawaii and is not

directly associated with the current major eruption of Kilauea volcano to the north.

The shaking caused some doors to open and some items to be thrown from shelves

in businesses. No major damage or casualties were reported and a tsunami does not

appear to have been generated with this earthquake. The earthquake occurred within minutes of the maximum of a geomagnetic storm at local solar noon and

was probably promoted by high tidal stresses associated with the new moon and the geomagnetic storm, which stresses maximize near this hour,  as

noted in this and previous issues of this summary

 

...

 

Readers should note that Hawaii is located near the longitude of maximum tidal stress with this

new moon. The mainshock also occurred as a strong geomagnetic storm was reaching

maximum intensity as noted in this summary" (October 10, 2021)

 

Today's activity in Hawaii had been anticipated with this new moon and eclipse

in the previous issue of this summary as:

 

" ... Other enhanced seismicity may occur in volcanic regions such as Hawaii

which are especially vulnearable to tidal stresses with an eclipse.

Major solar eclipses of 1868 (see previous issue fo details) were closely

associated with major earthquakes. The eclipse of August 18, 1868 was discussed

in relation to great earthquakes in South America in the previous issue

of this summary, but a second annular eclipse of the sun occurred on February 23, 1868.

This eclipse was followed at the next new moon by the strongest earthquake

ever recorded in Hawaii - an M 7.0 on March 28, 1868." (August 11, 2026)

 

 

 

O: 11AUG2026 13:30:58  18.8N  155.2W ML=3.2  EMSC   HAWAII REGION, HAWAII        

O: 12AUG2026 03:16:55  18.9N  155.2W ML=3.2  EMSC   HAWAII REGION, HAWAII

O: 11AUG2026 13:55:55  18.9N  155.2W ML=3.3  EMSC   HAWAII REGION, HAWAII

O: 11AUG2026 14:15:20  18.9N  155.2W ML=3.0  EMSC   HAWAII REGION, HAWAII

O: 12AUG2026 03:48:36  19.0N  155.3W ML=5.2  EMSC   ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII     

P: 06AUG2026 184375    19.3N  155.1W 4.0-5.4 BAAAA  Hawaii area                 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in Kyrgyzstan  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of  Kyrgyzstan in Biskek and in Almaty, Kazakhstan.

EMSC reported moderat shaking in Kyrgyzstan at Chuy, Kant, Bishkek, Lebedinovka, Georgiyevka, Cholpan-Ata, Kyzyl-Suu, and in Kazakhstan at Kapshagay, Chemolgan, Almaty, Pervomayka, Burunday, and in Salor and Tashkent, Uzbekistan.

This earthquake may have been promoted by a moderate solar flare. It occurred

within minutes of of local solar noon at the start of solar flare 1840, the

only C-class solar flare of August 12, 2026. Preliminary data from SWPC for this

flare follow:

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

1840       0715   0733      0745   C1.7      (August 12, 2026)   7.4E-04  

 

 

O: 12AUG2026 07:14:51  42.0N   75.4E MB=5.0  EMSC   KYRGYZSTAN                   

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.0 in greater Los Angeles, California was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of greater Los Angeles, California in Riverside, Santa Ana, Irvine, Corona, Silverado, Newport Beach, Anaheim, Orange, Norco, Rancho Cucamonga, Rancho Santa Margarita, Tustin, Travuco, Anaheim, Aliso Viejo, Laguna Hills, among others and as far as 100 km from the epicenter.

 

O: 12AUG2026 06:17:05  33.8N  117.6W ML=2.9  EMSC   GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALI

O: 12AUG2026 06:17:05  33.8N  117.6W ML=3.0  NEIC   GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALI

O: 12AUG2026 03:46:36  33.8N  117.7W ML=2.0  EMSC   GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIF.

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.9 in Kyushu, Japan was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Kyushu, Japan in Yatsushiro, Kumamoto  and Sasebo, Nagasaki.

 

O: 12AUG2026 04:05:52  32.5N  130.6E MW=4.9  EMSC   KYUSHU, JAPAN                

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.9 in Southern Alaska was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern Alaska in Homer, Anchorage and Girdwood.

 

O: 11AUG2026 22:26:54  60.1N  153.3W ML=3.9  EMSC   SOUTHERN ALASKA              

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.9 in Southern California was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern California in Calipatria.

 

O: 11AUG2026 20:34:02  33.2N  115.6W ML=2.9  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA          

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in New Britain was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of New Britain in Kokopo, East New Britain.

 

O: 11AUG2026 20:31:27   4.6S  153.0E MW=5.0  EMSC   NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.   

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.3 in Romania was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Romania at Chiajna, Ilfov and Letea Veche, Bacau and in Chisinau, Moldova.

EMSC reported moderate shaking in Romania at Ploiesti, Gocsani, Mircestii Noi, Targoviste, Salceni, Caldararu, Bucharest, Hemeius, Holt, Popesti-Leordeni, Barland, Movileni, Galati among others. It was lightly felt as far as Tiraspol and Chisinau, Moldova and in General Toshevo, Bulgaria.

O: 11AUG2026 17:21:15  45.5N   26.3E ML=4.3  EMSC   ROMANIA                      

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.1 in Washington State was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Washington State in White Swan and II in Wapato, Yakima, Moxee, Harrah, and Kennewick.

 

O: 11AUG2026 16:23:52  46.4N  120.6W ML=3.1  EMSC   WASHINGTON                   

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.9 in Central California was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central California with IV in Soledad, III in Paicines, San Ramon, Carmel, II in Marina, Fresno, Santa Cruz, San Leandro, Gonzales, Scotts Valley, Aptos, Santa Clara, Salinas, Monterey, Carmel Valley and Seaside.

 

O: 12AUG2026 02:19:45  36.6N  121.2W MD=2.0  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA           

O: 11AUG2026 10:19:08  36.6N  121.2W Mw=3.9  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

O: 11AUG2026 10:21:00  36.6N  121.2W ML=2.7  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

O: 11AUG2026 10:22:08  36.6N  121.2W MD=2.1  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

O: 11AUG2026 12:09:29  36.6N  121.2W MD=2.7  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

O: 11AUG2026 20:22:41  36.6N  121.2W MD=2.0  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

O: 11AUG2026 22:10:22  36.6N  121.2W MD=2.0  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

 

NEIC reported earthquakes of M 4.4 and M 4.6 in the Alaska Peninsula were felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Alaska at Sand Point.

 

O: 11AUG2026 09:36:40  54.6N  160.0W mb=4.4  EMSC   SOUTH OF ALASKA

O: 11AUG2026 08:49:23  54.6N  160.0W MB=4.6  EMSC   ALASKA PENINSULA             

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.3 in Wyoming was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Wyoming in American Fork, Utah.

 

O: 11AUG2026 08:00:28  41.6N  109.9W ML=3.3  EMSC   WYOMING                      

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in Colombia was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Colombia in Cartago, Armenia, Manizales, Tulua, Cali, Envigado, Itagui, Rioblanco, Jamundi, Madrid, Bogota, Barrio San Luis, Yopal.

 

O: 11AUG2026 15:43:41   4.9N   76.3W MB=4.2  EMSC   COLOMBIA                     

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

 

 

SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

 

Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of  the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models.  Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:

 

 

 

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL 

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

 

TS  CRISTOBAL  2026-08-12  00:00 UT  37.7N   39.5W   40 kts  North Atlantic near Azores                                                        

 

TS Cristobal  formed today in the Northern Atlantic with winds up to 40 kts.  It will track to the east and is expected to dissipate quickly. Some seismic enhancement near the Azores is possible with this storm.

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E  

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

 

TD    08E      2026-08-12  00:00 UT  18.1N  130.0W   40 kts  North Pacific east of Hawaii                                                             

 

TD 08E  formed today in the Northern Pacific east of Hawaii with winds up to 40 kts.  It will track to the west and is expected to reach Hawaii as a Tropical Storm around August 18. A moderate earthquake could occur near the time of landfall of this storm.

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE 01C     

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

 

TC    01C      2026-08-12  00:00 UT  14.1N  142.0W   45 kts  North Pacific east of Hawaii                                                             

 

TC 01C  formed today in the Northern Pacific east of Hawaii with winds up to 45 kts.  It will track to the northwest and is expected to reach Hawaii as a Hurricane around August 15. A moderate earthquake could occur near the time of landfall of this storm.

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANGKA (TD 16W)    

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

 

TD    NANGKA   2026-08-12  00:00 UT  26.1N  150.6E   40 kts  North Pacific                                                              

 

TD Nangka (TD 16W) continued today in the Northern Pacific with winds up to 40 kts.  It will track to the northeast and not encounter seismic areas in the next several days. No seismicity is expected to be enhanced near this storm at this time.

 

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date

of August 11, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.

The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes

which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by

immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes

which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have

been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

1840       0715   0733      0745   C1.7      (August 12, 2026)   7.4E-04  

 

1740       1800   1807      1812   C1.7      (August 11, 2026)   9.2E-04  

Ecuador M 4.3 18:05 UT

Western Australia M 4.6 18:10 UT

 

1760       1959   2010      2022   C1.4      (August 11, 2026)   1.4E-03  

Andaman Is. M 4.9 19:55 UT

Halmahera M 5.1 20:14 UT

 

1790       2255   2304      2318   C2.5      (August 11, 2026)   2.3E-03  

Papua M 4.7 23:33 UT

 

* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list

                                                       

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:  quiet August 12-14.  Solar M-flare chance: 5% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%

 

AP Indicies: global: 7, high: 5, mid-latitude: 6, time of max k: 19:00-22:00 UT; Max k: 4 Global Kp 3.33 1800-2000, August 11; Sunspot Number: 62; Radio Flux:  96

 

 

The Hp30 index (GFZ) reached 4.33 today around 16:0 UT. No geomagnetic storms were observed.

 

 

August 11, 2026

 

Notable earthquakes and events:

 

The new moon and solar eclipse will arrive on August 12, 2026 at 17:37 UT. This will include a total eclipse of the sun.  This eclipse will be total near Iceland and Greenland at its peak with the greatest eclipse at 65N 25W over Iceland and will also be total in the area of Spain, Portugal, Southern France and northern Italy. These areas could see significantly enhanced seismicity beginning in several days. This eclipse will be partial in the northeastern U.S. and throughout Canada.  Longitudes which are sub-solar (local solar noon) are near 85 West longitude while those at local solar midnight are centered near 95 East longitude. In the west these include area of Central and northwestern South America and eastern U.S. and in the east areas of western Indonesia, Myanmar, and eastern China. These areas are likely to see tidal triggering with this new moon. A moderately large to large tidally triggered earthquake is considered moderately likely with this new moon." (March 17-21, 2023)

 

A major earthquake of M 7.4 occurred today in the area of Colombia. This

epicenter will be nearly sub-solar when the eclipse arrives on August 12, 2026.

This event occurred at an intermediate depth (110 km) and was widely felt  with damage throughout Colombia and as far as

Mexico and Venezuela. Some damage was reported in Colombia with intensity VIII

in Montenegro, Quindio and VII in Manizales, Caldas, Jamundi, Villamaria, Armenia, Jardin, Pocri, and in Hopelchen, Mexico with VI shaking inSan Jose, Bello, Salento, Cali, Ulloa, La Estrella among others. It was felt with moderate intensity as far as Puerto Rico, Mexico, Panama, Venezuela, Brazil, Ecuador, Jamaica.

Current reports indicated several hundred people were killed in the earthquake,

mostly by falling debris or collapsing structures.  This event is consistent with triggering from Typhoon Dolphin

landfall at 144 degrees from this epicenter as well as with tidal stress

triggering associated with the upcoming solar eclipse of August 12, 2026 (see

previous summary for case studies of some major South American eclipse-earthquake

occurrences). Other seismic active areas at 144 degrees from Typhoon Dolphin

landfall include the South Sandwich Islands where a strong earthquake could

occur with the solar eclipse of August 12, 2026.

 

 

This is the strongest earthquake in Colombia in at least 35 years. The last earthquake in Colombia with M>=7.0 occurred as an M 7.2 on November 15, 2004

and before that on November 19, 1991. This summary described the earthquake

of November, 2004 at the time as:

   

"... an earthquake of M 7.2-7.3 hit off the coast of western Colombia. The online source "The Age" indicates

that this event which occurred early in the Colombian morning injured at least 30

while destroying more than 500 homes and damaging many other buildings.

More damage is expected to be reported at a later time as the area is remote

and rescue teams have not yet reached the most damaged regions. The earthquake

occurred in Choco Province one of Colombia's poorest areas. Clinics and buildings

in Cali were damaged. Damage also occurred in Jamunda and Buenventura.

In Bogota eletrical service was interrupted. The most damaging and deadly

earthquake in Colombia in recent years was an M 6.2 on Jan. 25, 1999 in the

area of Armenia, Colombia which killed more than 100 and left about 250,000 homeless.

Today's earthquake is the strongest ever recorded by the Preliminary

Determination of Epicenters (PDE) catalog in the area (2-6N 70-80W) of

western and central Colombia (in the past 50 years). The strongest previously

recorded event in this area was an M 7.0 on Nov. 19, 1991 about 100 km

east of today's epicenter. That earthquake had effects quite similar to

those published for today's event with two killed and 28 houses damaged in

Choco Department and minor damage in Cali and Buenaventura. It was also felt

at Quito and Guayaquil, Ecuador.

 

...

 

An earthquake of M 4.8 was located in southern

Sumatra about three hours after the Colombia mainshock within 100 km of the

exact antipode of the Colombia event. Events are antipodal if their longitudes

add to 180 degrees (in this case the longitude of Colombia is given as 77.6W

and that of Sumatra quake as 102.4E - a sum of exactly 180) and their signed

latitudes sum to zero (in this case the longitude of the Colombia event is 4.6N

and of the Sumatra event 5.5S  - a difference of 0.9 degrees about 100 km

off of exact antipodal events). Geometric focusing at the antipode of a

major quake can produce seismic wave amplitudes which may be strong enough

to trigger antipodal activity as it appears to have done in this case." (November 15, 2004)

 

The last earthquake in Colombia of M>6.5 occurred 13 years ago on August 13, 2013.

At the time the relation to Sumatra was discussed as:

 

"This epicenter (in Colombia) is at the exact antipode of an M 5.3 which hit south of Sumatra two days ago and may

have been promoted or triggered by that event. Frequent readers of this

summary know that two epicenters are antipodal if their latitudes are

the same and in opposite hemispheres (6N and 6S in the current pair)

and their longitudes add to 180 and are in opposite hemispheres (78W and

102E in the current pair). Further activity in Sumatra near this epicenter

is likely in the next several days. After this was written an M 4.6 did

occur in this region of Sumatra. The earthquake off Panama is the

strongest to occur in the world since an M 7.2 in the South Sandwich Islands

of July 15, 2013, a month ago. It is also the largset within 200 km of this

epicenter to occur since events of M 7.2 on November 15, 2004; October 18, 1992 and November 19, 1991.

The 10- to 11-year cycle here is probably not coincidental but is forced

by solar activity also on an 11-year cycle." (August 13, 2013)

 

After a moderate earthquake in Sumatra occurred yesterday this summary discussed

the relation between Sumatra and Colombia earthquakes (see this issue below).

In particular it is worthwhile to note the antipodal relation of today's

event in Colombia with the earlier M 5.3 in Sumatra. Within error limits

imposed by depth and size of the rupture zone, these two are very nearly

exactly antipodal (compare 5S and 5N and 103E and 76W for antipodality). 

 

O: 09AUG2026 15:15:04   5.8S  102.9E MW=5.3  EMSC   SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA  

 

O: 10AUG2026 12:34:28   4.9N   76.2W ML=7.4  NEIC   COLOMBIA                     

 

 

Statistical evidence indicates that some triggering or promotion forward in time can occur in regions which are under high stress due to additional stress events of  small size. Among these are surface and body waves passing through a region. Triggering may be dynamic with the promoted earthquake occurring at the same time as the stress event or delayed with an earthquake occurring later in time but still related to the stress event through water lubrication or other various geophysical effects on the faults. We have argued in this report for the past 35 years that this effect is most observable where the seismic waves are largest. In general this occurs at distances from the rupture ends of  the earthquake producing those waves (mainshock) which we have termed nodal distances. These are defined by the formula D=360*m/n where D is the distance in degrees and m<=m where n an m are small integers. These are also the locations of  the maximum corrections to magnitude in the standard Jeffreys-Bullen tables. In addition there is focusing of  seismic energy from reflections and refractions of f the core-mantle and the inner-outer core boundary of  the earth. This focuses energy at the surface in the distance between 101 and 108 degrees (core-mantle) and 141-148 degrees (inner-outer core boundary). In this report we monitor seismicity at these distances following major earthquakes as experience has shown that strong and/or unusual earthquake are much more likely to occur at these distance from the mainshock.

Some of these were noted after the Colombian event in August, 2013 as:

 

Antipodal (~180 degrees)

Colombia to Sumatra

 

Outer shadow zone edge (141-148 degrees)

Colombia to South Indian Ocean, Myanmar, Taiwan, New Guinea,  China, central Asia, Sichuan,

 

Node 3 (120 degrees)

Colombia to  Hokkaido, Santa Cruz, Honshu, 

 

Inner shadow zone edge (101-110 degrees)

Colombia to Kermadec Is, Caucasus, New Zealand, Tonga/Fiji,

 

Node 4 (90 degrees)

Colombia to Andreanof Islands, 

 

Node 5 (72 degrees)

Colombia to  Spain, Yukon, South Atlantic,

 

Node 6 (60 degrees)

Colombia to Vancouver Island, BC 

 

Node 7 (52 degrees)

Colombia to  Quebec, Idaho, San Francisco, northern California, 

 

Node 8 (45 degrees)

Colombia to  San Diego, Central California, Utah, Baja California, 

 

Today's earthquake in Colombia is also consistent with SFE triggering

from a solar flare. This flare of C2.4 class began at the same

time as the earthquake in Colombia occurred (12:34 UT) according to

data from SWPC (see below). This is the strongest C-class solar flare

since a C6.3 (#1020) on August 2, 2026.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

1700       1234   1316      1400   C2.4      (August 10, 2026)  7.1E-03  *

Sumatra M 7.5 12:34 UT

 

O: 10AUG2026 12:34:28   4.9N   76.2W ML=7.4  NEIC   COLOMBIA                     

O: 10AUG2026 12:34:28   4.9N   76.2W MW=7.4  EMSC   COLOMBIA                     

O: 10AUG2026 13:18:10   4.9N   76.3W mb=5.0  EMSC   COLOMBIA

 

As expected the antipode of the event in Colombia saw enhanced seismicity

later in the day. The only earthquake in the world of M>5 (other than the

M 7.4 in Colombia) occurred in Southern Sumatra with M 5.1. It was not

reported felt in that area of the Sunda Strait.

 

O: 11AUG2026 01:12:45   4.5S  102.5E MB=4.7  EMSC   SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA  

O: 10AUG2026 17:08:08   5.9S  102.4E MB=5.1  EMSC   SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA  

 

In  previous summaries this summary provided some historical insight

into the relation between total solar eclipses in the vicinity of of Europe

and accompanying major earthquakes in that region. Tidal stresses are

maximized at antipodal locations as well so today this summary will examine

some notable earthquakes antipodal to total solar eclipses. In the current

case the antipode of Iceland to Europe is in the vicinity of the Balleny

Islands north to New Zealand and the Kermadec Islands and in the Tonga/Fiji subduction zone, an active seismic

region where a strong earthquake may be expected with the eclipse of

August 12, 2026. Moderately enhanced seismicity is also expected at this

time in areas of the North Atlantic including Iceland and the Azores and in

the region of Southern Europe including Italy, Greece, Span and possibly

as far as Turkey. Other enhanced seismicity may occur in volcanic regions such as Hawaii

which are especially vulnearable to tidal stresses with an eclipse.

Major solar eclipses of 1868 (see previous issue fo details) were closely

associated with major earthquakes. The eclipse of August 18, 1868 was discussed

in relation to great earthquakes in South America in the previous issue

of this summary, but a second annular eclipse of the sun occurred on February 23, 1868.

This eclipse was followed at the next new moon by the strongest earthquake

ever recorded in Hawaii - an M 7.0 on March 28, 1868.

 

The strongest earthquake felt in the world today was an M 5.3 south of Sumatra,

Indonesia. It was likely felt in the epicentral area with moderate intensity.

Earthquakes in this area of Sumatra are often coupled with antipodal

earthquakes in the region of Colombia - in this cast at 5N 77W and

a moderate to strong earthquake is likely in that area at this time. This

may be emphasized with the coming total solar eclipse.

 

This summary has emphasized this antipodal relation between earthquakes in

Sumatra and Colombia in previous issues. For example when an M 6.6 in Sumatra occurred

on January 14, 2022 was followed by an M 5.5 at the antipode on February 23, 2022

this summary noted:

 

 

"A moderate earthquake occurred in northern Colombia today with M 5.5.

Moderately large earthquakes in Colombia are often associated with enhanced

seismicity near the antipode in the region of Sumatra, Indonesia. A moderately

large to large earthquake is likely in the next several days in that region

due to antipodal triggering." (February 23, 2022)

 

and when an M 7.2 hit Colombia on November 15, 2004 this summary also related

the possibility of antipodal triggering as:

 

"The most damaging and deadly

earthquake in Colombia in recent years was an M 6.2 on Jan. 25, 1999 in the

area of Armenia, Colombia which killed more than 100 and left about 250,000 homeless.

Today's earthquake is the strongest ever recorded by the Preliminary

Determination of Epicenters (PDE) catalog in the area (2-6N 70-80W) of

western and central Colombia (in the past 50 years). The strongest previously

recorded event in this area was an M 7.0 on Nov. 19, 1991 about 100 km

east of today's epicenter. That earthquake had effects quite similar to

those published for today's event with two killed and 28 houses damaged in

Choco Department and minor damage in Cali and Buenaventura. It was also felt

at Quito and Guayaquil, Ecuador. Today's felt area is likely to extend to

northern Peru. ...

 

An earthquake of M 4.8 was located in southern Sumatra about three hours after the Colombia mainshock within 100 km of the

exact antipode of the Colombia event. Events are antipodal if their longitudes

add to 180 degrees (in this case the longitude of Colombia is given as 77.6W

and that of Sumatra quake as 102.4E - a sum of exactly 180) and their signed

latitudes sum to zero (in this case the longitude of the Colombia event is 4.6N

and of the Sumatra event 5.5S  - a difference of 0.9 degrees about 100 km

off of exact antipodal events). Geometric focussing at the antipode of a

major quake can produce seismic wave amplitudes which may be strong enough

to trigger antipodal activity as it appears to have done in this case." (November 15, 2004)

 

Today's epicenter in Sumatra is at the 10th node from Typhoon Dolphin (36 degrees)

and near the antipode of earthquakes in Venezuela and may have been promoted

by energy from those sources.

 

 

O: 09AUG2026 15:35:19   5.8S  102.7E ML=4.0  EMSC   SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA

O: 09AUG2026 15:15:04   5.8S  102.9E MW=5.3  EMSC   SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA  

 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.7 in Iran was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Iran in Shush and in Kuwait.

 

O: 10AUG2026 15:01:10  32.7N   48.0E MB=4.7  EMSC   WESTERN IRAN                 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in Costa Rica was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Costa Rica in Nicoya, Santo Domingo andin La Chorera, Panama.

 

O: 10AUG2026 20:54:59   8.4N   85.6W MB=5.0  EMSC   OFF COAST OF COSTA RICA      

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in Panama was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Panama in Panama City.

 

O: 10AUG2026 12:12:32   7.4N   80.4W ML=4.2  EMSC   PANAMA                       

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

 

 

SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

 

Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of  the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models.  Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:

 

 

 

TROPICAL STORM PEILOU (DEPRESSION 13W)    

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

 

TS    PEILOU   2026-08-11  00:00 UT  25.1N  155.0E   40 kts  North Pacific                                                               

 

TS Peilou   (TD 13W) continued today in the Northern Pacific with winds up to 40 kts.  It will track to the northeast and not encounter seismic areas in the next several days. No seismicity is expected to be enhanced near this storm at this time. The antipode at 21S 30W is not an active seismic area.

 

TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM DEPRESSION 14W)    

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

 

TS    CHAN-HOM 2026-08-11  00:00 UT  35.8N  140.7E   45 kts  HONSHU, JAPAN                                                              

 

TS Chan-Hom (TD 14W) continued today and made landfall on the east coast of Honshu, Japan with winds up to 45 kts.  It may help trigger a moderate earthquake near its time of landfall in Honshu, Japan. The antipode is at 35S 43W in the South Atlantic - not a seismic area.

 

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date

of August 10, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.

The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes

which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by

immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes

which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have

been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

1660       1141   1150      1154   B6.9      (August 10, 2026)  6.1E-04  

1690       1154   1159      1205   B7.2      (August 10, 2026)  5.5E-04  

1670       1212   1229      1234   C1.0      (August 10, 2026)  1.5E-03  

Northern Mid-Atlantic M 5.0 12:12 UT

Panama M 4.2 12:12 UT

Santa Cruz M 4.7 11:50 UT

Argentina M 4.2 12:03 UT

 

 

 

1700       1234   1316      1400   C2.4      (August 10, 2026)  7.1E-03  

Colombia 12:34 UT M 7.4

 

* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list

                                                       

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:  active August 11 quiet August 12-13.  Solar M-flare chance: 5% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%

 

AP Indicies: global: 5, high: 5, mid-latitude: 5, time of max k: 09:00-12:00 UT; Max k: 4 Global Kp 1.67 0000-0300, August 10; Sunspot Number: 55; Radio Flux:  95

 

 

The Hp30 index (GFZ) did not exceed 2 today. No geomagnetic storms were observed.

 

August 10, 2026

 

Notable earthquakes and events:

 

UPDATE:

 

A major earthquake of M 7.4 has just occurred in the area of Colombia. This event occurred

at an intermediate depth and was widely felt throughout Colombia and as far as

Mexico and Venezuela. Some damage was reported in Colombia with intensity VIII

in Montenegro, Quindio and VII in Manizales, Caldas, Jamundi, Villamaria, Armenia, Jardin, Pocri, and in Hopelchen, Mexico with VI shaking inSan Jose, Bello, Salento, Cali, Ulloa, La Estrella among others. It was felt with moderate intensity as far as Puerto Rico, Mexico, Panama, Venezuela, Brazil, Ecuador, Jamaica.

Moderate damage is likely due to the intermediate depth of this earthquake.

A tsunami is unlikely. This is consistent with triggering from Typhoon Dolphin

landfall at 144 degrees from this epicenter as well as with tidal stress

triggering associated with the upcoming solar eclipse of August 12, 2026 (see

previous summary for case studies of some major South American eclipse-earthquake

occurrences).

 

 

 

This is the strongest earthquake in Colombia in at least 35 years. The last earthquake in Colombia with M>=7.0 occurred as an M 7.2 on November 15, 2004

and before that on November 19, 1991. This summary described the earthquake

of November, 2004 at the time as:

   

"... an earthquake of M 7.2-7.3 hit off the coast of western Colombia. The online source "The Age" indicates

that this event which occurred early in the Colombian morning injured at least 30

while destroying more than 500 homes and damaging many other buildings.

More damage is expected to be reported at a later time as the area is remote

and rescue teams have not yet reached the most damaged regions. The earthquake

occurred in Choco Province one of Colombia's poorest areas. Clinics and buildings

in Cali were damaged. Damage also occurred in Jamunda and Buenventura.

In Bogota eletrical service was interrupted. The most damaging and deadly

earthquake in Colombia in recent years was an M 6.2 on Jan. 25, 1999 in the

area of Armenia, Colombia which killed more than 100 and left about 250,000 homeless.

Today's earthquake is the strongest ever recorded by the Preliminary

Determination of Epicenters (PDE) catalog in the area (2-6N 70-80W) of

western and central Colombia (in the past 50 years). The strongest previously

recorded event in this area was an M 7.0 on Nov. 19, 1991 about 100 km

east of today's epicenter. That earthquake had effects quite similar to

those published for today's event with two killed and 28 houses damaged in

Choco Department and minor damage in Cali and Buenaventura. It was also felt

at Quito and Guayaquil, Ecuador.

 

...

 

An earthquake of M 4.8 was located in southern

Sumatra aboutthree hours after the Colombia mainshock within 100 km of the

exact antipode of the Colombia event. Events are antipodal if their longitudes

add to 180 degrees (in this case the longitude of Colombia is given as 77.6W

and that of Sumatra quake as 102.4E - a sum of exactly 180) and their signed

latitudes sum to zero (in this case the longitude of the Colombia event is 4.6N

and of the Sumatra event 5.5S  - a difference of 0.9 degrees about 100 km

off of exact antipodal events). Geometric focusing at the antipode of a

major quake can produce seismic wave amplitudes which may be strong enough

to trigger antipodal activity as it appears to have done in this case." (November 15, 2004)

 

The last earthquake in Colombia of M>6.5 occurred 13 years ago on August 13, 2013.

At the time the relation to Sumatra was discussed as:

 

 

"This epicenter (in Colombia) is at the exact antipode of an M 5.3 which hit south of Sumatra two days ago and may

have been promoted or triggered by that event. Frequent readers of this

summary know that two epicenters are antipodal if their latitudes are

the same and in opposite hemispheres (6N and 6S in the current pair)

and their longitudes add to 180 and are in opposite hemispheres (78W and

102E in the current pair). Further activity in Sumatra near this epicenter

is likely in the next several days. After this was written an M 4.6 did

occur in this region of Sumatra. The earthquake off Panama is the

strongest to occur in the world since an M 7.2 in the South Sandwich Islands

of July 15, 2013, a month ago. It is also the largset within 200 km of this

epicenter to occur since events of M 7.2 on November 15, 2004; October 18, 1992 and November 19, 1991.

The 10- to 11-year cycle here is probably not coincidental but is forced

by solar activity also on an 11-year cycle." (August 13, 2013)

 

After a moderate earthquake in Sumatra occurred yesterday this summary discussed

the relation between Sumatra and Colombia earthquakes (see this issue below).

In particular it is worthwhile to note the antipodal relation of today's

event in Colombia with the earlier M 5.3 in Sumatra. Within error limits

imposed by depth and size of the rupture zone, these two are very nearly

exactly antipodal (compare 5S and 5N and 103E and 76W for antipodality. 

 

O: 09AUG2026 15:15:04   5.8S  102.9E MW=5.3  EMSC   SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA  

 

O: 10AUG2026 12:34:28   4.9N   76.2W ML=7.4  NEIC   COLOMBIA                     

 

 

Statistical evidence indicates that some triggering or promotion forward in time can occur in regions which are under high stress due to additional stress events of  small size. Among these are surface and body waves passing through a region. Triggering may be dynamic with the promoted earthquake occurring at the same time as the stress event or delayed with an earthquake occurring later in time but still related to the stress event through water lubrication or other various geophysical effects on the faults. We have argued in this report for the past 35 years that this effect is most observable where the seismic waves are largest. In general this occurs at distances from the rupture ends of  the earthquake producing those waves (mainshock) which we have termed nodal distances. These are defined by the formula D=360*m/n where D is the distance in degrees and m<=m where n an m are small integers. These are also the locations of  the maximum corrections to magnitude in the standard Jeffreys-Bullen tables. In addition there is focusing of  seismic energy from reflections and refractions of f the core-mantle and the inner-outer core boundary of  the earth. This focuses energy at the surface in the distance between 101 and 108 degrees (core-mantle) and 141-148 degrees (inner-outer core boundary). In this report we monitor seismicity at these distances following major earthquakes as experience has shown that strong and/or unusual earthquake are much more likely to occur at these distance from the mainshock.

Some of these were noted after the Coloombian event in August, 2013 as:

 

Antipodal (~180 degrees)

Colombia to Sumatra

 

Outer shadow zone edge (141-148 degrees)

Colombia to South Indian Ocean, Myanmar, Taiwan, New Guinea,  China, central Asia, Sichuan,

 

Node 3 (120 degrees)

Colombia to  Hokkaido, Santa Cruz, Honshu, 

 

Inner shadow zone edge (101-110 degrees)

Colombia to Kermadec Is, Caucasus, New Zealand, Tonga/Fiji,

 

Node 4 (90 degrees)

Colombia to Andreanof Islands, 

 

Node 5 (72 degrees)

Colombia to  Spain, Yukon, South Atlantic,

 

Node 6 (60 degrees)

Colombia to Vancouver Island, BC 

 

Node 7 (52 degrees)

Colombia to  Quebec, Idaho, San Francisco, northern California, 

 

Node 8 (45 degrees)

Colombia to  San Diego, Central California, Utah, Baja California, 

 

Today's earthquake in Colombia is also consistent with SFE triggering

from a solar flare. This flare of C2.4 class began at the same

time as the earthquake in Colombia occurred (12:34 UT) according to

data from SWPC (see below). This is the strongest C-class solar flare

since a C6.3 (#1020) on August 2, 2026.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

XXXX       1234   1316      1338   C2.4      (August 10, 2026)  7.1E-03  

 

 

O: 10AUG2026 12:34:28   4.9N   76.2W ML=7.4  NEIC   COLOMBIA                     

 

ORIGINAL SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 10, 2026

 

The new moon will arrive on August 12, 2026 at 17:37 UT. This will include a total eclipse of the sun.  This eclipse will be total near Iceland and Greenland at its peak with the greatest eclipse at 65N 25W over Iceland and will also be total in the area of Spain, Portugal, Southern France and northern Italy. These areas could see significantly enhanced seismicity beginning in several days. This eclipse will be partial in the northeastern U.S. and throughout Canada.  Longitudes which are sub-solar (local solar noon) are near 85 West longitude while those at local solar midnight are centered near 95 East longitude. In the west these include area of Central and northwestern South America and eastern U.S. and in the east areas of western Indonesia, Myanmar, and eastern China. These areas are likely to see tidal triggering with this new moon. A moderately large to large tidally triggered earthquake is considered moderately likely with this new moon." (March 17-21, 2023)

 

In the previous summary this summary provided some historical insight

into the relation between total solar eclipses in the vicinity of of Europe

and accompanying major earthquakes in that region. Tidal stresses are

maximized at antipodal locations as well so today this summary will examine

some notable earthquakes antipodal to total solar eclipses. In the current

case the antipode of Iceland to Europe is in the vicinity of the Balleny

Islands north to New Zealand and the Kermadec Islands, an active seismic

region where a strong earthquake may be expected with the eclipse of

August 12, 2026.

 

Probably the most notable instance of antipodal relations between total

solar eclipses and great earthquakes occurred in mid-August, 1868. This

began with an M 8.5 in southern Peru on August 13, 1868 and continued

with an M 7.7 in Ecuador on August 16, 1868. The total solar eclipse

occurred on August 18, 1868 and lasted for a long 6 minutes maximum.

The earthquake was described in this summary as:

 

"This was one of the most widely investigated earthquakes in South America.  Damage occurred throughout southern Peru and northern Chile from Guayaquil on the north to Valparaiso on the south. About 150 were killed in Moquequa alone and 3000 in the region of Arequipa but the total number of deaths ranged from several hundred to an estimated 40,000. Many of the dead were killed by the tsunami while seeking protection from the earthquake at sea walls. Arequipa, Moquegua, Mollendo, Ilo and Arica and other villages and towns in the area were largely destroyed. A tsunami was generated which was observed throughout the Pacific Ocean and did damage in New Zealand, Australia, Samoa, Hawaii, California and Japan.  At Isla, Peru the sea withdrew suddenly and after a delay of 20 minutes in Arica the first wave reach with maximum height up to 17 meters. This tsunami destroyed what was left of Arica. The third or fourth wave was the highest and was described as a wall of water up to 45 feet high. This wave carried several ships as much as three miles inland where they lay for more than 50 years afterwards. A series of foreshocks preceded the earthquake. Cracks formed near Arica which were 5-8 cm wide and issued flows of mud, water and asphyxiating gasses. The air was charged with electricity such that sparks were observed when fingers were run through dry hair. Earthquake lights were observed throughout the Andes as moving balls of light. Waves could be seen passing over the surface of the earth." (August 13, 2025)

 

The maximum of the eclipse was located at 11N 102E but passed near 18N 110E

minutes earlier on August 18, 1868. The earthquakes in Peru occurred at the

antipode of this at 18S 79W. Other strong earthquakes with this solar

eclipse included an M 6.0 in Hungary on August 22, 1868 - a very rare

event.

 

A great earthquake of M 8.5 also occurred in Central Chile on May 25, 1751.

This earthquake was described in this summary as:

 

 5 25  5 30  0 1751 -36.830  -71.630   0 8.5   Central Chile

 

Moderate damage (XI) at Chillan, Talca, Tutuben, Talco, Chile. A tsunami was generated. This was the third large Concepcion earthquake. A large foreshock on May 23 caused many to spend the night outside in readiness for additional shocks which included a strong foreshock about 15 minutes before the mainshock. The mainshock appears to have been a succession of at least six distinct events with the tsunami arriving about half an hour after the earthquake. Only 25 to 30 were killed in Concepcion due in large part to the foreshock. Chillan and Talca were destroyed and Santiago was greatly damaged. Churches and wineries were destroyed in the region. A large aftershock occurred on June 26, 1751. The location of Concepcion was abandoned after this earthquake and the city was rebuilt further inland. The generated tsunami was also destructive along the coast of Japan. Data from: "Major Earthquakes and Tsunamis in Chile during the period 1535 to 1955" by Cinna Lomnitz, Geol. Rundshau Rand 59 Vol. 3 pp 938-960, Stutgard, 1970.  Readers may note the similarities between this earthquake and those of May 22-25, 1960 in the same area as described in our previous history.

 

Other examples of major earthquakes associated with total solar eclipses

in South America include an M 8.4 in Peru on June 23, 2001 following a

total eclipse in the same area on June 21, 2001. That earthquake was

described in this summary as:

 

The earthquake killed at least 75 including at least 26 by a tsunami.  Nearly 18,000 homes were destroyed and more than 35,000 damaged in Arequipa, Camana and Tacna while injuring nearly 2700. Besides the 26 killed by the tsunami an additional 64 were missing. Many historic buildings were damaged or destroyed at Arequipa. Landslides blocked many highways. The earthquake followed by several days a total eclipse of the sun in the area. A tsunami was generated with maximum height to 7 meters and inundated up to 1 km inland.

 

An earthquake near the antipode of this event occurred on the same day in 1751

in Yunnan Province, China. This summary reported it as:

 

 5 25  0  0 00 1751  26.500   99.900   0 6.8   CHINA

 

Severe damage (IX) in Yunnan Province, China. 900 killed. The magnitude is given by various sources from M 6.5-7.0. No time is currently available for this earthquake, however it is quite possible that a triggering relationship between this event and that in Central Chile (M 8.5) exists. These two events fall in the approximate antipodal areas of each other.

 

These two earthquakes occurred within hours of a major total solar eclipse

visible north of China (but visible at the Chinese epicenter) which maximized at the time of these earthquakes on

May 25, 1751. An earthquake of M 7.2 also occurred on May 20, 1751 in central

Japan.

 

An earthquake in Pakistan and Afghanistan of M 7.6 on June 9, 1956 also followed a total

solar eclipse near the antipode in the south Pacific which was visible on June 8, 1956. 

 

The strongest earthquake felt in the world today was an M 5.3 south of Sumatra,

Indonesia. It was likely felt in the epicentral area with moderate intensity.

Earthquakes in this area of Sumatra are often coupled with antipodal

earthquakes in the region of Colombia - in this cast at 5N 77W and

a moderate to strong earthquake is likely in that area at this time. This

may be emphasized with the coming total solar eclipse.

 

This summary has emphasized this antipodal relation between earthquakes in

Sumatra and Colombia in previous issues. For example when an M 6.6 in Sumatra occurred

on January 14, 2022 was followed by an M 5.5 at the antipode on February 23, 2022

this summary noted:

 

 

"A moderate earthquake occurred in northern Colombia today with M 5.5.

Moderately large earthquakes in Colombia are often associated with enhanced

seismicity near the antipode in the region of Sumatra, Indonesia. A moderately

large to large earthquake is likely in the next several days in that region

due to antipodal triggering." (February 23, 2022)

 

and when an M 7.2 hit Colombia on November 15, 2004 this summary also related

the possibility of antipodal triggering as:

 

"The most damaging and deadly

earthquake in Colombia in recent years was an M 6.2 on Jan. 25, 1999 in the

area of Armenia, Colombia which killed more than 100 and left about 250,000 homeless.

Today's earthquake is the strongest ever recorded by the Preliminary

Determination of Epicenters (PDE) catalog in the area (2-6N 70-80W) of

western and central Colombia (in the past 50 years). The strongest previously

recorded event in this area was an M 7.0 on Nov. 19, 1991 about 100 km

east of today's epicenter. That earthquake had effects quite similar to

those published for today's event with two killed and 28 houses damaged in

Choco Department and minor damage in Cali and Buenaventura. It was also felt

at Quito and Guayaquil, Ecuador. Today's felt area is likely to extend to

northern Peru. ...

 

An earthquake of M 4.8 was located in southern Sumatra aboutthree hours after the Colombia mainshock within 100 km of the

exact antipode of the Colombia event. Events are antipodal if their longitudes

add to 180 degrees (in this case the longitude of Colombia is given as 77.6W

and that of Sumatra quake as 102.4E - a sum of exactly 180) and their signed

latitudes sum to zero (in this case the longitude of the Colombia event is 4.6N

and of the Sumatra event 5.5S  - a difference of 0.9 degrees about 100 km

off of exact antipodal events). Geometric focussing at the antipode of a

major quake can produce seismic wave amplitudes which may be strong enough

to trigger antipodal activity as it appears to have done in this case." (November 15, 2004)

 

Today's epicenter in Sumatra is at the 10th node from Typhoon Dolphin (36 degrees)

and near the antipode of earthquakes in Venezuela and may have been promoted

by energy from those sources.

 

 

O: 09AUG2026 15:35:19   5.8S  102.7E ML=4.0  EMSC   SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA

O: 09AUG2026 15:15:04   5.8S  102.9E MW=5.3  EMSC   SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA  

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.5 in the east Central Pacific

Ocean. It was not reported felt in this remote epicentral area. The last

earthquake of M>5.5 within about 300 km of this epicenter in the Central Pacific

occurred more than 35 years ago. No  earthquakes in the area of moderate

magnitude have occurred in the past 35 years. This suggests regional stress

is high at this point and may lead to a strong eclipse-related regional

earthquake.

 

 

This epicenter is at the third node (120 degrees) from the landfall of Typhoon

Dolphin and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

 

O: 10AUG2026 05:41:44   0.3N  114.7W MB=5.5  EMSC   EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN   

 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.4 in Jalisco, Mexico was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Jalisco, Mexico in Puerto Vallarta.

 

O: 10AUG2026 03:16:23  19.8N  105.6W MB=4.4  EMSC   OFFSHORE JALISCO, MEXICO       

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.4 in Western Honshu, Japan was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Western Honshu, Japan in Fukui-shi.

NEIC reported intensity II-III in Gifu at Ono, Gifu, Amagasaki, Hyogo and in Kyoto in Kyoto and Ashiya, Japan.

 

O: 09AUG2026 15:48:10  35.4N  136.3E ML=4.4  EMSC   WESTERN HONSHU, JAPAN        

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.8 off eastern North Island, New Zealand  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of off eastern North Island, New Zealand in Auckland. 

 

O: 10AUG2026 07:17:28  37.4S  177.8E MB=4.8  EMSC   OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.0 in Central California was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central California in Bradley.

 

O: 10AUG2026 00:37:06  36.7N  121.4W MD=2.0  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA           

O: 10AUG2026 01:19:03  36.6N  121.2W MD=2.1  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA           

O: 10AUG2026 02:39:01  36.6N  121.2W MD=2.9  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

O: 10AUG2026 02:39:54  36.6N  121.2W MD=2.8  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

O: 10AUG2026 03:15:28  36.6N  121.2W MD=2.1  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.0 in Hawaii was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Hawaii in Captain Cook.

 

O: 10AUG2026 00:37:56  18.8N  155.3W ML=4.0  EMSC   HAWAII REGION, HAWAII        

O: 10AUG2026 05:13:06  18.8N  155.3W MD=3.0  EMSC   HAWAII REGION, HAWAII

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in India was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of India in Uttaranchal at Dehra Dun and Barkot.

 

O: 09AUG2026 19:51:32  30.8N   78.2E MB=4.2  EMSC   UTTARANCHAL, INDIA           

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.8 in Samar, Philippines was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Samar, Philippines in Baras, Eastern Visayas.

 

O: 09AUG2026 17:05:42  11.4N  125.3E MB=4.8  EMSC   SAMAR, PHILIPPINES           

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of 

 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M  in  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of 

 

 

 

SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

 

Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of  the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models.  Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:

 

 

 

TROPICAL STORM PEILOU (DEPRESSION 13W)    

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

 

TS    PEILOU   2026-08-10  00:00 UT  27.1N  161.0E   45 kts  North Pacific                                                               

 

TD 15W formed today in the Northern Pacific with winds up to 45 kts.  It is expected to track to the northeast and not encounter seismic areas in the next several days. The antipode at 27S 20W is not an active seismic area.

 

 

TROPICAL STORM PEILOU (DEPRESSION 13W)    

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

 

TS    PEILOU   2026-08-10  00:00 UT  21.1N  151.0E   50 kts  North Pacific                                                               

 

TS Peilou   (TD 13W) continued today in the Northern Pacific with winds up to 50 kts.  It will track to the northeast and not encounter seismic areas in the next several days. The antipode at 21S 30W is not an active seismic area.

 

TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM DEPRESSION 14W)    

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

 

TS    CHAN-HOM 2026-08-10  00:00 UT  34.8N  148.7E   50 kts  North Pacific                                                               

 

TS Chan-Hom (TD 14W) continued today in the Northern Pacific with winds up to 50 kts.  It will track towards  Honshu, Japan over the next several days reaching Honshu, Japan about August 11-12 and making landfall north of Tokyo. It is likely to trigger a moderate to strong earthquake near its time of landfall in Honshu, Japan. The antipode is at 35S 31W in the South Atlantic - not a seismic area.

 

SUPER-TYPHOON DOLPHIN (DEPRESSION 12W)    

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

 

STYP  DOLPHIN  2026-08-10  00:00 UT  27.9N  120.2E   80 kts  West of Ryukyu Islands, Japan                                                      

 

Super-Typhoon Dolphin (TD 12W) continued today west of the Ryukyu Islands, Japan with winds up to 80 kts.   A moderate earthquake could be triggered near landfall in the area of Japan. The antipode at 27S 60W is in the South Atlantic Ocean  - an area unlikely to see seismicity at this time.

 

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date

of August 9, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.

The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes

which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by

immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes

which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have

been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

XXXX       1234   1316      1338   C2.4      (August 10, 2026)  7.1E-03  

Colombia 12:34 UT M 7.4

 

1550       1525   1548      1554   C1.1      (August 9, 2026)   1.5E-03  

Southern Sumatra M 4.0 15:35 UT

Central Peru M 4.6 15:41 UT

Western Honshu M 4.4 15:48 UT

Argentina M 4.0 15:44 UT

 

1560       1630   1640      1646   C1.8      (August 9, 2026)   1.1E-03  

Ethiopia M 4.6 17:11 UT

Samar M 4.8 17:06 UT

 

1570       1801   1806      1808   C1.1      (August 9, 2026)   6.4E-04  

New Guinea M 4.5 18:11 UT

Fiji M 4.5 18:23 UT

 

1600       2026   2037      2047   C1.2      (August 9, 2026)   1.3E-03  

Baja California M 3.7 20:36 UT

 

1610       2046   2053      2055   C1.0      (August 9, 2026)   7.4E-04  

 

*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph

 

                                                       

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:  active August 11 quiet August 10 minor storms August 12.  Solar M-flare chance: 1% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%

 

AP Indicies: global: 7, high: 8, mid-latitude: 9, time of max k: 09:00-12:00 UT; Max k: 3 Global Kp 2.67 0000-0300, August 9; Sunspot Number: 41; Radio Flux:  94

 

A minor excursion occurred in the GOES-19 geomagnetic field measured by the

magnetometer on that satellite starting abut 01:55 and maximizing around 02:05

UT on August 10. An arcjet maneuver stabilized the orbit and normal

operations resumed by 03:25 UT. An unsually large M 3.5 in Portugal was

recorded and felt at 02:08 UT and may have been related to

this geomagnetic change. EMSC reported it was felt with a loud noise in Portugal at Odemira, Porto Covo, Beja, Santiago do Cacem.

This may be of interest because the total eclipse of the sun on August 12

will pass over this epicenter. The last earthquake of M>=3.5 within about

150 km of this epicenter in Portugal with M>=3.5 was an M 4.4 on March 24, 2025 and an M 4.8 on February 17, 2025.

At the time this summary noted:

 

"A moderate earthquake of M 4.8 was felt widely in the area of Portugal near Lisbon today. NEIC reported intensity up to VI (with minor damage)  in Portugal in the Lisbon area at Alenquer and in Leiria Centro and in Huelva, Spain. Intensity V was felt near Lisbon at Alverca do Ribatejo, Baixa de Banheira, Famoes Poceirao, Pragal, Trafaria, Unhos with IV in Almada, Amadora, Amora, Arrentela, Barreiro, Cacilhas, Camarate, Carnaxide, Charneca de Caparica, Corroios, Cost da Caparica, Estoril, Fernao, Linda-a-Velha, Oeiras, Paco de Arcos, Santo Antonio da Charneca, Sesimbra, Sobreda, Vialonga, Barcelos and Moreira, North Portugal. Lesser shaking was reported in Italy.

EMSC reported strong shaking in Portugal. Reports of light intensity came from as far as Gibraltar and Marbella, Spain more than 400 km from the epicenter.

This earthquake occurred within minutes of local solar noon and may have been

promoted by tidal or geomagnetic effects which maximize near this hour.

This is the strongest earthquake felt in Portugal since an M 5.4 on August 26, 2024.

The only other event of M>=4.8 in Portugal in the past 35 years was an M 4.8 on September 4, 2018.

Today's earthquake could be the largest aftershock to date of the M 5.4 in August, 2024.

At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"A moderately strong earthquake of M 5.4 was widely felt in Portugal today. It occurred

near the antipode of an earlier M 6.9 in Tonga and may have been related to

antipodal focusing of seismic energy at the antipode of that epicenter. NEIC reported

the earthquake in Portugal was felt with maximum intensity VII in Lisbon, Portugal at Benedita Lisboa e Vale do Tejo and VI in Portugal at Ponte Norte, Sines Alenteho with V in Trafaria Lisboa e Vale do Tejo, Santa Barbara de Nexe, Monte Redondo, Moita, Loures, Castro, Carregado, Bucelas, Bombarral, Arrentela, Alferrarede, Lisbon, and with lesser shaking throughout Portugal and portions of Spain.

EMSC reported a possible minor tsunami with maximum shaking in Portugal near the

towns of Sines, Zambujal de Cima, with a great deal of noise. Euro Weekly News reported no major damage or injuries with this earthquake.

The last earthquake located near Portugal with M>=5.4 occurred more than 35 years ago. The only

comparable event in the past 35 years occurred with M 5.4-5.5 on December 17, 2009 and January 10, 2006.

At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"A moderately strong earthquake of M 5.7-6.3 hit west of Gibraltar today and

was felt widely in Portugal, Spain and Morocco. Spain's Seismological Institute

gave the M 6.3 while NEIC gave M 5.7. The most likely magnitude given the

widely felt region is M 6.3. Reports from NEIC often underestimate the magnitude

of larger events initially and give larger values at a later time.  NEIC reported maximum intensity

VI in Odemira, Alentjo, Portugal and V in Portugal at Boliqueime, A dos Cunhadoa, Aljezur, Azambuja, Baixa de Banheira,

Castanheira do Ribatejo, Grandola, Lagoa, Luz, Malveira, Mealhada, Monchique,

Montenegro, Pampilhosa, Portimao, Porto de Mos, Soure, Queijas, Rio Maior, Serpa, Serta,

 in Spain at Caceres, and in Morocco at Khouribga and Settat. Intensity IV was generally

felt within about 300 km of the epicenter; III within about 500 km and II within

500-700 km from the epicenter. Spanish media reported the quake was also felt

in Seville, Cordoba and Huelva, Spain. The epicenter is located near the presumed

epicenter of the great Lisbon earthquake of November 1, 1755 which destroyed

along with a tsunami much of the built coast of Portugal." (December 17, 2009, August 26, 2024)

 

 

Like the M 5.1 in Gibraltar of February 10, 2025 today's epicenter is at 103 degrees

from the Kyushu M 6.8 of January 13, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy

from that source. This summary noted this possibility in an earlier issue as:

 

 

"Minor seismicity continued near the Strait of Gibraltar today but not as aftershocks of the

This suggests an expanding seismic field following the M 5.1 of February 10, 2025.

Other area, besides Morocco and the Strait of Gibraltar which could see significant

seismicity in the area in the next week include Spain and Portugal, both of which

see events of M>=4.5 on occasion. Like the activity in southern Texas today

these events are located near 103 degrees from the M 6.8 in Kyushu, Japan of January 13 and may have been promoted by energy from that source." (February 15, 2025)

 

The antipode of the event in Portugal today is in North Island, New Zealand,

an active seismic area which may see minor enhancement in seismicity in the

next several days." (February 17, 2025)

 

 

 

O: 10AUG2026 02:08:23  37.6N    8.4W ML=3.5  EMSC   PORTUGAL                     

 

The Hp30 index (GFZ) did not exceed 3 today. No geomagnetic storms were observed.