SEISMICITY TAKES A BREAK

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 15, 2025

 

It was a relatively quiet day in global seismicity today. No significant earthquakes were reported. The strongest event was an M 5.0 in northern Chile. The current geomagnetic storm was declining, there were no solar flares of M- or higher class and tropical cyclones were limited to a dissipating cyclone south of Madagascar which was not expected to promote important seismicity at this time.

 

An unusual M 3.0 earthquake occurred today in southern Mississippi (US). NEIC reported it was felt in Mississippi with intensity III in Braxton, Magee, Pinola, and II in Raleigh, Taylorsville and Meridian. The last earthquake of M>=3.0 within about 200 km of this epicenter in Mississippi was recorded as an M 3.2 hit the area along with a series of similar events in March through June, 2015. It is not clear if these were mining related explosions.

 

A strong outburst of tornadoes hit Mississippi about the time of this earthquake and may have helped promote this event.

 

Forecast 170909 had expected enhanced seismicity in southeast U.S. was likely

in mid-March.

 

O: 15MAR2025 18:49:34  31.9N   89.6W ML=3.0  EMSC   MISSISSIPPI                  

P: 21MAR2025 170909    33.0N   87.0W 2.0-4.0 CBBAA  Southeast U.S.              

 

 

 

MODERATELY STRONG QUAKE IN OAXACA, MEXICO RELATED TO TC IVONE

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 14, 2025

 

Moderately strong earthquakes occurred today in Oaxaca and Guerrero, western Mexico with M 5.6-5.9  and as an M 6.0 in the South Sandwich Islands.  NEIC reported the earthquake in Oaxaca with M 5.6 but local networks placed the magnitude up to M 5.9 (INET, BMKG, BGS). NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to IV in Oaxaca, Mexico at Huajuapan, Juxtlahuaca, Oaxaca; III in Pochutla, Puerto Escondido, Santa Lucia del Camino; in Puebla at Momoxpan, Zinacatepec and in Cuernavaca, Morelos and in the Mexico City region at Zacamulpa. EMSC reported it was felt with moderate shaking in Oaxaca at Chalcatongo de Hidalgo, Oaxaca de Juarez, La Perla, Heroica Puebla de Zaragoza, Ciudad de Huitzuco, Mexico City, Cuernavaca, Ciudad Nezahualcoyotl, Venustiano Carranza, Miguel Hidalgo, Cuauhtemoc, Cuajimalpa de Morelos, and Tlalnepantla.

 

The last earthquake in Oaxaca or Guerrero, Mexico with M>=5.6 within about 200 km of today's epicenter occurred on March 20, 2021 with M 5.7. The last of larger or equal magnitude then M 5.9 was an M 5.9 on February 19, 2018. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"A strong aftershock of M 5.9 shook the Oaxaca aftershock zone early on February 19. It was reported by NEIC to have had maximum intensity IV in Pinotepa Nacional, Oaxaca and IV in Panixtlahuaca, Oaxaca, Xadani, Puebla, Coacallco, with lesser shaking of II-III in Hidalgo and in the state of Mexico at Lopez Mateos, Tlalnepantla,, Vista Hermosa, Totoltepec, Ecatepec, Metepec, Naucalpan, Buenavista, Mexico City, Nezahualcoyotl, Los Reyes, Xico; in La Antigua, Antigua; in Puebla at Cuautlancingo, Cholula, Pueble, Tlaxcalancingo, Tianguismanalco, Ocoyucan; in Jojutla and Tilzapotla, Morelos; in Tierra Blanca, Veracruz; in Guerrero at Acapulco, Tlapa, and in Oaxaca at Puerto Escondido, Xoxocotlan, San Antonio de la Cal, Santa Lucia del Camino, Telistlanhuanca, Mital, Pochutla, Huajuapan, Huatulco. The aftershock of M 5.9 followed an M 4.2 minutes earlier. These occurred within about 15 minutes of local solar midnight, an hour when tidal stresses can be maximized and were probably enhanced by this stress." (February 19, 2018)

   

The earthquake in Oaxaca had been expected at this time with the full moon and lunar eclipse maximized near this location as noted in previous issues of this summary:

 

"The full moon will arrive on March 14, 2025 at 06:59 UT. This will entail a total lunar eclipse visible in the Pacific, Americas, Western Europe and Africa with maximum eclipse near 0N 105W near the Galapagos Islands. Longitudes near local solar noon are near 105W while those at solar midnight are near 75E. These include in the west portions of the North-east Pacific Rise, western Mexico and central North America; in the east areas of central or southeastern Asia and Sumatra  are included in this longitude zone. These are the areas most likely to see significant tidal triggering with this full moon and eclipse. As these include limited areas of high seismicity the likelihood of a major earthquake within about 4 days of March 14 would normally be deemed moderate to low. But this full moon could coincide with a major geomagnetic storm and this may help promote a strong to major earthquake at this time most likely in the region of western Mexico or near the antipode in southeastern Asia." (March 10-14, 2025)

 

and

 

 

"A series of moderate earthquakes occurred in a path across Guatemala, and Oaxaca, Chiapas and Guerrero, Mexico today. This volcanism is at the third node (120 degrees) from landfall of TC Alfred and was probably promoted by energy from that source.

 

These earthquakes in eastern Mexico and Guatemala are occurring along the antipode to TC Ivone as expected in previous issues of this summary:

 

"TROPICAL CYCLONE IVONE  (24S)                   

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

TC    IVONE    2025-03-10  00:00 UT  17.2S   83.1E  060 kts  South Indian Ocean  

 

Tropical Cyclone Ivone  (24S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean with winds up to 60 kts.  It is expected to track to the south and west over the next several days. The antipode of this storm today is at 16N 97W in Oaxaca Mexico. This is a seismic area and is likely to see seismic enhancement as TC Ivone is near the antipode. The areas of Chiapas and Oaxaca are under a moderate seismic for the duration of Ivone at the antipode." (March 8-10, 2025)

 

This series began with an eruption of Volcan de Fuego near Alotenango, Guatemala two days ago and has caused the evacuation of 300 families and possible evacuation of up to 300,000 as the eruption continues. Another volcano in danger of eruption along this path of westward moving seismicity is Popocatepetl north of Mexico City, which is likely to see increased volcanism in the next two days.

 

This series is at the antipode to TC Ivone and near the third node (120 degrees) from the landfall of TC Alfred and was probably promoted by energy from those sources." (March 10-12, 2025)

 

Forecasts 170534 and 170535 had expected today's event within about 200 km was

likely around March 14, 2025.

 

O: 15MAR2025 03:19:27  17.3N   97.4W MW=5.6  EMSC   OAXACA, MEXICO               

P: 14MAR2025 170534    16.0N   98.0W 3.5-5.3 ABAAA  Oaxaca, Mexico              

P: 14MAR2025 170535    18.0N   99.0W 3.5-5.4 AABAA  Oaxaca, Mexico             

 

A widely felt earthquake also occurred in east-central Italy with M 5.0. It occurred near Lesina, Italy. NEIC reported maximum intensity IV in Apulien, Italy at Bari, Foggia, Vieste, with III in Adelfia, Alberobello, San Giovanni Rotondo, amd II-III in Mandello del Lario, Lombardei and Piedimonte Matese, Campania. EMSC reported light to moderate shaking in Italy at San Martino in Pensilis, Vico del Garano, Lucera, Foggia, Vasto, Scerni, Paglieta, Gossacesia, Canosa di Puglia, Chieti, Pescara, Disceglie, Scafa, Montesilvano, Avellino, Sulmona, among others. Felt lightly as far as 300 km in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania, Croatia, western and northern Italy. The last earthquake of M>=5 within about 200 km of this epicenter in east-central Italy occurred as an M 5.5  on March 27, 2021 and prior to that an M 5.3 on August 16, 2018. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"An earthquake of M 5.5 in the Adriatic Sea was widely felt in Italy today. NEIC reported maximum intensity IV in Italy at Santa Maria, Imbaro and Trani Apulien and II-III in San Marco in Lamis Apulien, Termoli, Foggia, Barietta, Francavilla al Mare, Ripa Teatina, Pescara and Montesilvano, Abruzzen. This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter since a similar M 5.5 northwest of this on March 29, 2003. The largest earthquake in the area in the past 30 years was an M 6.0 on September 5, 1996." (March 27, 2021)

 

and

 

"An earthquake of M 5.3 in southern Italy today continued the moderate quakes in that area. No major damage has been associated with these events over the past several days. Today's M 5.3 was reported in Abruzzen, Italy at Sal Salvo, and San Vito Chietino and IV in Torrevecchia Teatina, Lentella, Campomarino, Casalbordino, with intensity II-III in Agnone, Molise; San Severo, Apulien, and in Abruzzen at Campo de Giove and Pescara and in general within about 150 km of the epicenter." (August 16, 2018)

 

Today's event in Italy is near 144 degrees from the landfall of TC Alfred in  Australia and, like the M 4.4 in Naples, Italy, yesterday may have been  promoted by energy from that source. An M 3.5 aftershock of the Naples activity occurred today and was felt in Naples, Portici and Ercolano, Italy.

 

Forecasts 170629 and 170350 had expected enhanced seismicity Italy was likely in mid-March.

 

O: 14MAR2025 18:44:10  40.8N   14.2E MD=3.5  EMSC   SOUTHERN ITALY               

P: 17MAR2025 170629    41.0N   14.0E 3.0-5.4 BAAAA  Italy                      

 

O: 14MAR2025 22:30:39  42.0N   15.6E ML=2.8  EMSC   ADRIATIC SEA                 

P:  7MAR2025 170350    43.0N   15.0E 3.0-5.4 CAAAA  Italy                      

 

 

NEIC reported this earthquake of M 4.0 in east-central Italy was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of east-central Italy at Frascati, Lazio.

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.4 off the west coast of the island of Hawaii. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to IV with III felt in Hawaii at Captain Cook, Hawi, Holualoa, Honaunau, Honokaa, Kahuku, Kailua, Waikoloa, Kailua Kona, Kamuela, Kealakekua, Naalehu, Pahoa, Pepeekeo, Mililani and II in Hilo, Honomu, Kapaau, Laupahoehoe, Paauilo, Papaikou, Kula, Wailuku, Honolulu. EMSC reported light shaking in Hawaii at Kailua, Honokaa. The last earthquake of M>=4.4 in Hawaii occurred on November 5, 2024 with M 4.8.  Enhanced seismicity in Hawaii had been expected at this time as it is nearly antipodal to TC  Jude as noted in previous issues of this summary:

 

"Tropical Cyclone Jude (25S) continued today in the area of the Mozambique with winds up to 50 kts.  It is expected to track to the south and west over the next several days. The antipode of this storm today is at 17N 140W in the north Pacific and is aseismic. Further seismic triggering from TC Jude is unlikely at this time. Moderate earthquakes today of M 3.5 and 3.7 in Hawaii may have been promoted by energy from this source." (March 10-14, 2025)

 

This event in Hawaii occurred about 6 minutes after the M 5.6-5.9 in Oaxaca, Mexico, about the time it takes the p-wave to traverse the distance between these two epicenter. P-wave triggering is a possibility in this case.

 

O: 15MAR2025 03:25:17  19.1N  156.3W ML=4.4  EMSC   HAWAII REGION, HAWAII        

P: 12MAR2025 170523    19.9N  156.1W 3.0-4.6 BAAAA  Hawaii                     

P: 15MAR2025 170549    20.1N  156.1W 4.0-5.5 AAAAA  Hawaii area                

 

NEIC reported the M 6.0 in the South Sandwich Islands may have been felt with intensity up to V in the epicentral area of the South Sandwich Islands although there were no reports of felt intensity for this event. The last earthquake in the South Sandwich Islands within about 200 km of this epicenter with M>=6.0 occurred on January 1, 2025 with the last major geomagnetic storm. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The strongest earthquakes in the world today occurred in the southern oceans.

These included an M 6.1 in the South Sandwich Islands and an M 5.5 in the

Balleny Islands south of New Zealand and an M 5.2 in the Tristan da Cunha area of the South Atlantic. None of these were reported felt in their remote epicentral areas. The event in the South Sandwich Islands occurred within a few minutes of local solar noon and was probably promoted by strong tidal stresses associated with the super new moon of December 30

...

 

The last earthquake of M>=6.1 in the South Sandwich Islands occurred as an M 6.3 on October 25, 2022. A great M 8.1 hit the region on August 12, 2021." (January 1, 2025)

 

It is of some interest that the event on January 1, 2025, like that of today occurred with the strongest geomagnetic storms of the current year as described in the previous issue of this  summary:

 

 

"This planetary AP of 42 is the highest AP index since it reached AP of 86 on

January 1, 2025. This could be followed in the next several days by a moderate increase in global seismicity." (March 14, 2025)

 

 

Today's  event in the South Sandwich Islands occurred at the maximum of today's geomagnetic storm at a high latitude and near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses with the full moon and lunar eclipse today. These maximize near this hour.

 

 

Forecast 170750 had expected today's event within about 150 km of this epicenter was likely around March 17, 2025.

 

O: 14MAR2025 23:42:35  55.7S   27.1W MW=6.0  EMSC   SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

P: 17MAR2025 170750    57.0S   27.0W 4.0-5.8 BAAAA  So. Sandwich Islands       

 

 

FULL MOON AND LUNAR ECLIPSE BRING FRESH SEISMICITY

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 13, 2025

 

 

An M 5.1 occurred in the Himachal Pradesh area near the Intia-Pakistan border today. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity V in India at Chamba, Sundarnagar, IV in Hamirpur, Manali, Palampur, Shimla; in Jammu and Kashmir at Anantnag, Badami Bagh, Bhaderwah, Kistwar, Udhampur and in Punjab at Kharar, Rupnagar, with lesser shaking within about 300 km of the epicenter. EMSC reported strong shaking with people running from their homes in Zanskar, Udaipur, and lesser shaking i Gandoh, Doda, Jammu and Kashmir, Manali, Palampur, Kullu, Pathankot, Mandi, Char-e-Sharif, Bagh Hussain, Zainakote, Dooro Budgam, Sialkot, Pattan, Mirpur and in Pakistan with light shaking in Islamabad. This event occurred at 76 East longitude near local solar midnight and was likely promoted by strong tidal stresses with today's full moon. These tidal stresses maximized at this longitude and time as noted in previous issues of this summary:

 

 

"The full moon will arrive on March 14, 2025 at 06:59 UT. This will entail a total lunar eclipse visible in the Pacific, Americas, Western Europe and Africa with maximum eclipse near 0N 105W near the Galapagos Islands. Longitudes near local solar noon are near 105W while those at solar midnight are near 75E. These include in the west portions of the North-east Pacific Rise, western Mexico and central North America; in the east areas of central or southeastern Asia and Sumatra  are included in this longitude zone. These are the areas most likely to see significant tidal triggering with this full moon and eclipse. As these include limited areas of high seismicity the likelihood of a major earthquake within about 4 days of March 14 would normally be deemed moderate to low. But this full moon could coincide with a major geomagnetic storm and this may help promote a strong to major earthquake at this time most likely in the region of western Mexico or near the antipode in southeastern Asia." (March 10-13, 2025)

 

Forecast 170596 had expected this event within about 200 km was likely around

March 16.

 

O: 13MAR2025 21:20:10  33.2N   76.6E MW=5.1  EMSC   KASHMIR-INDIA BORDER REGION  

P: 16MAR2025 170596    33.0N   74.0E 3.8-5.4 BABAA  Pakistan                   

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.1 in north-central Alaska near Ambler. It was not reported felt in this remote area but was probably felt with intensity up to VI in the epicentral area. This earthquake occurred within minutes of local solar noon and was probably promoted by tidal stresses with today's full moon and lunar eclipse which maximize near this hour and were noted in previous issues of this summary (see above).

 

This event in northern Alaska could have been promoted by SFE associated with

flare 9740 which began five minutes before the quake and for which SFE were maximized at this event of local solar noon in northern Alaska. Data from SWPC for this flare follow.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

9740       2159   2221      2224   C2.5      (March 13, 2025)   3.6E-03  

Northern Alaska M 5.0 22:04 UT

 

 

O: 13MAR2025 22:04:45  67.9N  157.2W MW=4.8  EMSC   NORTHERN ALASKA              

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.4 in Hawaii was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Hawaii  with III in Hilo and Naalehu and II at Mountain View and Pahala.

 

Forecast 170523 had expected enhanced seismicity in Hawaii was likely in mid-March.

 

O: 14MAR2025 04:29:09  19.1N  155.4W ML=3.5  EMSC   ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII     

P: 12MAR2025 170523    19.9N  156.1W 3.0-4.6 AAAAA  Hawaii                     

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.5 in Western Texas was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Western Texas at Odessa.  Forecast 170597 had expected this event was likely around March 14.

 

O: 14MAR2025 03:28:26  31.9N  101.7W ML=2.5  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS                

P: 14MAR2025 170597    31.5N  103.6W 2.0-4.1 AABAA  SW U.S.A                   

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.6 in Ilocos, Philippines was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Ilocos, Philippines  with IV in Vigan and III in Cabugao. EMSC reported moderate shaking in Vigan City, Philippines.

PHIVOLCS reported intensity IV in Magsingal, Sinait, Cabugao, San Juan, San Ildefonso, Santa, Santo Domingo, Santa Catalina, Liklidda, San Vicenter, Bantay and city of Vigan, Ilocos Sur and Badoc, Ilocos Norte with lesser shaking in Abra.

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.3 in Baja California was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Baja California in Mexicali and in southern California at Heber and Santee. This earthquake occurred within minutes of local solar noon in a longitude zone where tidal stresses with today's full moon and lunar eclipse maximized (see tidal forecast above) and was probably promoted by these stresses.

 

Forecast 170600 had expected this event within about 50 km was likely around

March 12.

 

O: 13MAR2025 19:41:09  32.4N  115.3W ML=3.3  EMSC   BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO      

P: 12MAR2025 170600    32.5N  115.7W 2.5-4.7 AAAAA  So. California             

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.4 in San Francisco Bay, California was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of San Francisco Bay, California at Antioch, Concord, Vallejo and San Ramon.

 

Forecast 170572 had expected this event in San Francisco was likely around

March 14-18, 2025.

 

O: 13MAR2025 17:34:37  38.0N  122.0W MD=2.4  EMSC   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.

P: 14MAR2025 170572    37.4N  121.8W 2.5-4.7 AAAAA  Central California         

P: 18MAR2025 170572    37.9N  122.0W 2.5-4.8 BAAAA  Central California         

 

NEIC reported earthquakes of M 3.2, M 2.7 and M 2.7 in Kansas were felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Kansas at Glen Elder, Lawrence, Beloit and Hays.  These events occurred near local solar midnight at a longitude where strong tidal stresses with today's full moon and lunar eclipse maximize (see above) and may have been promoted by these stresses.

 

Forecast 170615 had expected this event within about 150 km was likely around

March 11.

 

O: 13MAR2025 07:25:43  39.5N   98.3W ML=3.2  EMSC   KANSAS                       

P: 11MAR2025 170615    38.0N   97.0W 2.0-4.1 ABAAA  Southern Plains            

 

 

 

MODERATELY STRONG QUAKES SHAKES TAIWAN AND MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 12, 2025

 

 

The most widely felt earthquake in the world today was an M 5.3-5.7 in Taiwan. The local network (CWB) reported it was felt with intensity IV in Taitung, and Hualien; III in Nantou, Kaohsiung, Chiayi, Tainan, Yunlin; II in Pingtung, Taichung, Changhua, Miaoli Counties with weaker shaking throughout most of Taiwan. This epicenter is at the sixth node (60 degrees) from the landfall of TC Alfred in eastern Australia of the past several days and was probably promoted by energy from that source. In previous issues of this summary the relation at the sixth node from Alfred had been pointed out as moderately large earthquakes in Sumatra and the Nicobar Islands, India (M 6.0) and the northern Ryukyu Islands (M 5.7, 5.7) also occurred near this distance from Alfred as at the time of the Ryukyu events:

 

"A series of moderately strong earthquakes occurred today in the Ryukyu Islands, south of Kyushu, Japan today. The largest of these were M 5.7-6.0. They reported felt with intensity up to IV in the epicentral area. These epicenters are at 60.0 degrees (node 6) from the landfall of TC Alfred near Brisbane, Australia early on March 8, 2025 and were probably triggered by energy from that source. Other earthquakes today at the sixth node from  Alfred's landfall included moderate quakes in Sumatra, the Bonin Islands and Taiwan. The sixth node has also been active from Alfred at 120 degrees from that source and has included a number of significant earthquakes in South and Central America and in Armenia and central Asia." (March 9, 2025)

 

Forecast 170562 had expected this event in Taiwan was likely within about 100 km around March 13.

 

O: 13MAR2025 05:09:40  23.1N  121.5E Mw=5.2  EMSC   TAIWAN

O: 13MAR2025 05:09:40  23.1N  121.5E MW=5.7  CWB    TAIWAN                       

P: 13MAR2025 170562    24.0N  122.0E 4.0-5.4 AAAAA  Taiwan                     

 

The second strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.7 in Mindanao, Philippines. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to IV in the epicenter area of Barcelona, Philippines. PHIVOLCS reported this earthquake was felt with intensity III in Lingig, Hinatuan and City of Bislig, Surigao del Sur, Mindanao, Philippines. This earthquake occurred within  minutes of local solar midnight and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses with the upcoming full moon and lunar eclipse of March 14. This epicenter is at 141 degrees from the Cayman Islands M 7.6 of February 8 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 170481 had expected this activity  in Mindanao was likely within  about 150 km of the epicenter around March 11, 2025.

 

O: 12MAR2025 19:40:42   8.3N  127.4E ML=4.2  EMSC   PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

O: 12MAR2025 18:02:12   8.4N  127.5E ML=3.2  EMSC   PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

O: 13MAR2025 02:11:44   8.4N  126.6E ML=4.3  EMSC   MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

O: 12MAR2025 15:09:45   8.4N  127.6E MW=5.7  EMSC   PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION    

P: 11MAR2025 170481     7.0N  127.0E 4.0-5.4 ABAAA  Halmahera                  

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in Naples, Italy was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of  Naples, Italy with V in Pozzuoli, Campania; IV in Monte di Procida, Naples, Quarto, III in Bacoli, Orta di Atellaand San Giorgio a Cermano and in Penna Sant' Andrea Abruzzen, Italy. EMSC reported this event at M 4.4 was felt strongly in Italy at Monte di Procida, Naples, Quarto, Afragola, Frattamaggiore, Pollena Trocchia, Pomigliano d'Arco, Acerra, Boscoreale, Nola. This appears to be the strongest earthquake west of Naples in at least 40 years. The press reported it was preceded by a loud earthquake noise. A lot of damage to facades and ceilings was reported with the quake and in Bagnoli some people were trapped in their houses. A ceiling collapse in Pozzuoli temporarily trapped a resident. iA series of aftershocks followed inflicting additional damage. A minor eruption of Mount Vesuvius or Campi Flegrei is expected in the near future. The earthquake occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses associated with the full moon and eclipse of March 14.

 

This epicenter, like enhanced activity in Iceland today, is at 144 degrees

from the landfall of TC Alfred in Australia. It is likely energy from that source helped promote the M 4.2-4.4 in Naples, Italy today.

 

Forecast 170629 had expected this event within about 25 km was likely around March 17.

 

O: 13MAR2025 00:25:02  40.8N   14.1E MD=4.4  EMSC   SOUTHERN ITALY               

P: 17MAR2025 170629    41.0N   14.0E 3.0-5.4 BAAAA  Italy                      

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.0 in the Bering Sea, Alaska. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II in Alaska at Kotzebue.

This epicenter in the Bering Strait of Alaska is at this same distance as Mt. Spurr (101 degrees) from TC Alfred landfall and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

This epicenter is at the third node (120 degrees) from TC Ivone and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 12MAR2025 17:29:53  67.8N  166.8W MB=4.9  EMSC   BERING STRAIT                

 

A series of enhanced earthquakes in the eruption in Iceland including an M 3.8 also occurred today. These epicenters are at 144 degrees from the landfall of TC Alfred in Australia and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 170692 had expected this activity in Iceland was likely around March 14.

 

O: 12MAR2025 23:25:02  63.8N   22.7W ML=3.5  EMSC   ICELAND REGION

O: 12MAR2025 14:33:37  63.8N   22.7W ML=3.8  EMSC   ICELAND REGION               

P: 14MAR2025 170692    63.0N   23.0W 3.0-4.7 AAAAA  Iceland area               

 

The eruption of Volcan de Fuego in Guatemala continued today. This eruption began as TC Ivone passed near the antipode of this volcano two days ago. As noted in previous issues this was a likely promoter of this eruption:

 

 

"A series of moderate earthquakes occurred in a path across Guatemala, and Oaxaca, Chiapas and Guerrero, Mexico today. This volcanism is at the third node (120 degrees) from landfall of TC Alfred and was probably promoted by energy from that source.

 

These earthquakes in eastern Mexico and Guatemala are occurring along the antipode to TC Ivone as expected in previous issues of this summary:

 

"TROPICAL CYCLONE IVONE  (24S)                   

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

TC    IVONE    2025-03-10  00:00 UT  17.2S   83.1E  060 kts  South Indian Ocean  

 

Tropical Cyclone Ivone  (24S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean with winds up to 60 kts.  It is expected to track to the south and west over the next several days. The antipode of this storm today is at 16N 97W in Oaxaca Mexico. This is a seismic area and is likely to see seismic enhancement as TC Ivone is near the antipode. The areas of Chiapas and Oaxaca are under a moderate seismic for the duration of Ivone at the antipode." (March 8-10, 2025)

 

This series began with an eruption of Fuego near Alotenango, Guatemala two days ago and has caused the evacuation of 300 families and possible evacuatioin of up to 300,000 as the eruption continues. Another volcano in danger of eruption along this path of westward moving seismicity is Popocatepetl north of Mexico City, which is likely to see increased volcanism in the next two days." (March 10, 2025)

 

A series of minor earthquakes has been occurring near Mount Spurr in Alaska. This has been accompanied by gas emissions and scientist at the Alaska Volcano Observatory have indicated this could be the beginning of activity leading to an eruption of this volcano, the first in more than 30 years. Previoius eruptions occurred in 1953 and 1992. Mt. Spurr is located near Anchorage, Alaska at 61.29N 152.25W. This is near 101 degrees from the landfall of TC Alfred and began about the time of that landfall. If energy from this landfall was partially responsible for the earthquake swarm an eruption is not as likely at this time. An M 4.9 in the Bering Strait of Alaska is at this same distance from TC Alfred landfall.

 

Another area which has seen an upsurge in volcanic earthquakes during the landfall of TC Alfred is Mt. Adams in Washington State at 46.2N 121.5W. This may also be a reaction to energy associated with TC Alfred landfall and not evidence of a coming eruption.

 

An unusual earthquake of M 4.8 in the South Shetland Islands south of South America and near Antarctica occurred today. It was not reported felt in this remote area. This epicenter is at the fourth node (90 degrees) from the landfall of TC Alfred and may have been promoted by energy from that source. 

 

 

STRONG EARTHQUAKE SHAKES NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 11, 2025

 

 

A strong earthquake of M 5.9-6.0 occurred in the region of the Nicobar Islands, India near northern Sumatra today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to IV in the epicentral area. This earthquake may be related to the landfall of TC Alfred over the past several days. It is located near the sixth node from that event (60 degrees) in an area where triggering had been expected. At M 6.0 this is the strongest earthquake in the Nicobar Islands or Northern Sumatra since an M 6.0 on March 14, 2017. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"A strong earthquake of M 6.0 occurred today in the region of Northern Sumatra, Indonesia. It was reported by NEIC to have been felt with intensity II-III in Banda Aceh, Aceh, Indonesia and Port Blair, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, India. No major damage or tsunami was caused by this earthquake. This is the strongest aftershock in the rupture zone of the December 26, 2004 great M 9.3 earthquake and tsunami since events of M 6.4 on November 8, 2015 and of M 6.2 on May 18, 2014. The  area was in seismic shadow from 2010 to 2014 without significant seismicity." (March 14, 2017)

 

It occurred within minutes of local solar noon and was probably also promoted by strong tidal stresses with the upcoming full moon and eclipse of March 14 which maximize near this hour. This had been emphasized in previous issues of this summary as:

 

 

 

"The full moon will arrive on March 14, 2025 at 06:59 UT. This will entail a total lunar eclipse visible in the Pacific, Americas, Western Europe and Africa with maximum eclipse near 0N 105W near the Galapagos Islands. Longitudes near local solar noon are near 105W while those at solar midnight are near 75E. These include in the west portions of the North-east Pacific Rise, western Mexico and central North America; in the east areas of central or southeastern Asia and Sumatra  are included in this longitude zone. These are the areas most likely to see significant tidal triggering with this full moon and eclipse. As these include limited areas of high seismicity the likelihood of a major earthquake within about 4 days of March 14 would normally be deemed moderate to low. But this full moon could coincide with a major geomagnetic storm and this may help promote a strong to major earthquake at this time most likely in the region of western Mexico or near the antipode in southeastern Asia." (March 11-12, 2025)

 

When a regional foreshock of M 5.4 hit this area on March 8, 2025, this summary noted:

 

"The earthquake in Northern Sumatra of M 5.4 is the largest in Northern Sumatra within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 5.4 on July 9, 2023. At the time this summary noted: 

 

"An M 5.4 also occurred in the Nicobar Islands of India today. NEIC reported this earthquake of M 5.4 in Sumatra, Indonesia was felt with intensity V in the area(s) of Sumatra, Indonesia in Banda Aceh. BMG reported it was felt with intensity III in Aceh Besar, Pidie, Aceh Jaya, Kota Banda Aceh and II in Aceh Tengah, Barat, Besar, Bireuen, Nagan Raya, Sabang and Bogor. This event was not damaging and did not trigger a tsunami. The last earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter with M>=5.4 occurred on  March 5, 2022 with M 5.5. The last event with stronger magnitude hit the region with M 6.5 on December 6, 2016." (July 9, 2023)

 

This epicenter is near the sixth node (60 degrees) from the landfall position of TC Alfred and may have been promoted by energy from that source." (March 8, 2025)

 

Today's earthquake occurred near local solar noon and may have been promoted by tidal stresses which maximize near this hour with the full moon of March 14.

 

Forecast 170485 had expected this event was likely within about 150 km around

March 13, 2025.

 

O: 12MAR2025 05:42:10   7.0N   92.5E MW=6.0  EMSC   NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

P: 13MAR2025 170485     7.0N   94.0E 4.0-5.6 AABAA  Nicobar Islands            

 

A moderately strong earthquake of M 5.6 at a deep focus of 646 km occurred in the area on the border between Brazil and Peru today. NEIC reported it may have been felt lightly at the surface. This is the strongest earthquake located in this region of Brazil within about 200 km since an M 6.5 on June 8, 2022. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.5 in northern Peru at an intermediate depth. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II-III in Brazil at Feijo and Cruzeiro do Sol, Acre and in Peru in Pucallpa, Huanuco, Lima, and Trujillo, La Libertad. Like several other events in Peru in recent days (including the M 7.2 of May 26, 2022) this event occurred at deep focal depth (621 km) and, while strong, was felt in a broad arc at moderate intensities on the surface. This is the strongest earthquake near the Peru-Brazil border within about 300 km of this epicenter since an M 6.8 on January 5, 2019 and prior to that an M 7.6 and aftershocks on November 24, 2015. These occurred 100 km north and south of today's epicenter. The quake in November, 2015 was followed by an M 6.7 on November 26, 2016 within  about 25 km of today's epicenter which may be an aftershock of that earthquake." (June 8, 2022)

 

This event is located near the antipode of the M 6.0 today in Sumatra and the Nicobar Islands, India and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

This epicenter  is at the third node (120 degrees) from the landfall of TC Alfred in Australia and may be promoted by energy from that source. It is also at the fourth node from the M 6.5 in Jan Mayen of March 10 and was probably influenced by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 170419 had expected regional seismic enhancement in this area was likely in early March, 2025.

 

O: 11MAR2025 14:08:08  10.5S   70.6W MW=5.6  EMSC   PERU-BRAZIL BORDER REGION    

P:  7MAR2025 170419    14.0S   71.0W 4.0-5.6 BCAAA  Central Peru               

 

An M 5.4 also occurred in the western Caribbean Sea area. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II-III in Panama at Santa Fe Veraguas and in Panama City at Las Colinas. The last earthquake of M>=5.4 recorded in this region within about 200 km occurred on June 16, 2014 with M 5.5 - the only such event in the past 35 years. At the time this summary noted:

 

"NEIC reported this earthquake of M 5.5 north of Panama was felt with intensity IV in San Andreas, Colombia; II in San Miguelito, Panama and San Felipe, Costa Rica." (June 16, 2014)

 

This event is located near the antipode of the M 6.0 today in Sumatra and the Nicobar Islands, India and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 170479 had expected regional enhancement of seismicity around March 11 in this area.

 

O: 11MAR2025 08:32:13  11.5N   81.6W MW=5.4  EMSC   NORTH OF PANAMA              

P: 11MAR2025 170479     9.0N   83.0W 3.5-5.3 ACBAA  Costa Rica                 

 

The area south of this in the Canary Islands also saw seismic enhancement today.

A series of minor earthquakes in this area may be the first signs of an imminent eruption. Readers should look for increasing magnitudes in the Canary Islands in the next week if this is part of an imminent eruption.

 

This activity is near the antipode of the landfall of TC Alfred and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 11MAR2025 22:14:51  28.0N   16.2W ML=1.9  EMSC   CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION

O: 11MAR2025 22:28:52  28.0N   16.2W ML=1.7  EMSC   CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION

O: 12MAR2025 06:39:31  28.0N   16.2W ML=1.9  EMSC   CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION

O: 11MAR2025 22:17:07  28.1N   16.2W ML=1.9  EMSC   CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION

O: 11MAR2025 22:18:30  28.1N   16.2W ML=2.3  EMSC   CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION

O: 11MAR2025 22:20:19  28.1N   16.2W ML=1.9  EMSC   CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION

O: 11MAR2025 22:24:41  28.1N   16.2W ML=1.9  EMSC   CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION

 

A new eruptive episode of Kilauea began in Hawaii today spewing lava fountains hundreds of meters in to the air. This may be related to the near-antipodal position of Hawaii to TC Jude in southeastern Africa at this time. This possibility had been alluded to in the previous issue of this summary as:

 

 

"Tropical Cyclone Jude (25S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean with winds up to 80 kts.  It is expected to track to the south and west over the next several days. The antipode of this storm today is at 15N 137W in the north Pacific and is aseismic. TC Jude is likely to continue inland to a point approximately antipodal to Hawaii by March 11-12, 2025 and is likely to enhance seismicity and volcanism in Hawaii at that time." (March 9-11, 2025)

 

 

NEIC reported today's earthquake of M 3.4 in southern Hawaii was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Hawaii with IV in Mountain View; II in Kapolei, Naalehu, Pahala and Honolulu.

 

Forecast 170523 had expected this earthquake within about 25 km was likely around March 12, 2025.

 

O: 11MAR2025 10:46:06  19.1N  155.4W ML=3.5  EMSC   ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII     

P: 12MAR2025 170523    19.9N  156.1W 3.0-4.6 AAAAA  Hawaii                     

 

 

MODERATE QUAKE IN NORTH ATLANTIC NEAR TC ALFRED LANDFALL ANTIPODE

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 10, 2025

 

 

A moderate earthquake in the North Atlantic near the Azores Islands today was widely felt. NEIC reported maximum intensity in the Azores of Portugal with intensity IV near Arrifes, Ponta Delgada, Rabo de Peixe, Vila Franca do Camop and III in Faja de Baixo, Rosto do Cao and possibly as far as Morocco. EMSC reported moderate shaking in Azores, Portugal at Santo Antonio de Nordestinho, Ribera Seca, Ribeira Grande, Rosto do Cao, Livramento, Pico da Pedra, Sao Roque, Faja de Baixo, Ponta Delgada. Aftershocks were also felt in the Azores at Agua de Pau and Ponta Delgada. This event is in the antipodal area of the landfall of TC Alfred off eastern Australia of the past several days and may have been promoted by energy from that source. This event in the North Atlantic of M 5.3 is the strongest within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 5.8-5.9 twelve years ago on April 30, 2013. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"A strong earthquake of M 5.9-6.0 occurred in the Azores Islands of Portugal in the North Atlantic early on April 30. This event is near the Euler Pole for North America with respect to Europe. Motion of North America appears to rotate about this point and faults on the west coast of the U.S. are generally perpendicular to great circle lines drawn to them from the Euler Point. This means that surface motions arriving from the Azores will, in general, affect entire faults and fault systems simultaneously. This can lead to larger earthquakes if the faults are ready for one. The antipode of this event is at 38S 155E, near the New South Wales area of Australia, a seismic area where a light earthquake could follow. Further to the south, seismicity appeared to be reawakening in the Canary Islands as well where two moderate sized earthquakes of M 2.9 and 3.4 occurred earlier in the day. EMSC reported the Azores quake was felt with intensity up to V in Lagoa, Ponta Delgada, Arrifes, Mosteiros, Azores and possibly in Portugal on the European continent about 1500 km away as a gentle rocking. Witnesses described it as strong and accompanied by an earthquake noise. NEIC reported intensity II-III in the Azores at Angra,

Ponta Delgada and Ribeira Grande. This is the strongest earthquake within 500 km of this epicenter since events of M 6.0 and 6.3 on April 7 and April 5, 2007 respectively. The only other event of larger size in the area in  the past 23 years occurred  on July 9, 1998 with M 6.2." (April 30, 2013)

 

Forecast 170644 had expected enhanced seismicity in this region of the northern Mid-Atlantic was likely around March 13, 2025.

 

O: 11MAR2025 00:56:07  38.9N   29.0W ML=2.5  EMSC   AZORES ISLANDS, PORTUGAL

O: 11MAR2025 08:14:36  37.5N   25.1W MB=5.3  EMSC   AZORES ISLANDS, PORTUGAL     

O: 10MAR2025 14:55:32  38.7N   27.3W ML=2.4  EMSC   AZORES ISLANDS, PORTUGAL     

P: 13MAR2025 170644    40.0N   30.0W 4.0-5.8 BBAAA  No. Mid-Atlantic Ridge     

 

The area south of this in the Canary Islands also saw seismic enhancement today. A series of minor earthquakes in this area may be the first signs of an imminent eruption.

 

A new eruptive episode of Kilauea began in Hawaii today spewing lava fountains hundreds of

 meters in to the air. This may be related to the near-antipodal position of Hawaii to TC Jude in southeastern Africa at this time. This possibility had been alluded to in the previous issue of this summary as:

 

 

"Tropical Cyclone Jude (25S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean with winds up to 80 kts.  It is expected to track to the south and west over the next several days. The antipode of this storm today is at 15N 137W in the north Pacific and is aseismic. TC Jude is likely to continue inland to a point approximately antipodal to Hawaii by March 11-12, 2025 and is likely to enhance seismicity and volcanism in Hawaii at that time." (March 9-11, 2025)

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.2 in Hawaii was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Hawaii with IV in Hawaii at Mountain View and II in Kapolei, Naalehu, Pahala and Honolulu.

 

Forecast 170523 had expected this earthquake within about 25 km was likely around March 12, 2025.

 

O: 11MAR2025 02:08:34  20.0N  155.9W ML=3.4  EMSC   ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII     

P: 12MAR2025 170523    19.9N  156.1W 3.0-4.6 AAAAA  Hawaii                     

 

Aftershocks also continued in the Jan Mayen area east of Greenland with the largest of M 4.6. These followed an M 6.6 earthquake and/or volcanic eruption in that area of March 10 as described in previous issues of this summary:

 

"The strongest earthquake of the day was an M 6.5-6.6 in the Jan Mayen Island area off Eastern Greenland. NEIC reported shaking in the epicentral area up to VIII with III as far as Skage, Norway. This is the strongest earthquake in the world since the M 7.6 in the Cayman Islands of February 8, 2025." (March 10, 2025)

 

This epicenter is located at 105 degrees from the location of TC Ivone in the

South Indian Ocean at the time of occurrence and may have been promoted by  energy from that source.

 

Forecast 170700 had expected today's activity within about 25 km was likely around March 11, 2025.

 

O: 10MAR2025 07:38:51  71.1N    7.8W MB=4.6  EMSC   JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION      

O: 11MAR2025 03:19:26  72.6N    2.9W MB=3.5  EMSC   JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION      

P: 11MAR2025 170700    71.0N    8.0W 3.5-6.1 AAAAA  Jan Mayen Isl. area        

 

 

MODERATE QUAKE SHAKES LOS ANGELES, CA AT 103 DEGREES FROM TC ALFRED LANDFALL

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 9, 2025

 

A series of light aftershocks followed an M 4.1 in western Los Angeles, California today. The mainshock was reported to NEIC as being felt by more than 6500 people. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to V in California at Inglewood and IV in Los Angeles, Torrance, Agoura Hills, Canoga Park, Newbury Park, thousand Oaks, Westlake Village, Thousand Oaks, Camarillo, Moorpark, with III felt within about 100 km and II as far as about 150 km. The mainshock occurred within several minutes of local solar noon and was probably also enhanced by tidal and geomagnetic effects with the strong geomagnetic storm today, the largest since January 1, 2025 which peaked near the time of these earthquakes in Los Angeles, California.  A series of light aftershocks followed the mainshock and continued early on March 10 with an M 3.3. NEIC reported this event near Malibu, California was felt with intensity III in Malibu, Agoura Hills, Newbury Park, Westlake Village, Thousand Oaks, Woodland Hills, Oak Park, with II in Thousand Oaks and Los Angeles. The last earthquake of M>=4.1 in the region of western greater Los Angeles was recorded by NEIC as occurring on September 12, 2024 with M 4.7. An M 3.9 hit the area about 50 km east of today's epicenter on March 3, 2025. At the time this summary reviewed regional activity as:

 

"The last earthquake near today's epicenter with M>=4.5 was an M 4.6 on February 9, 2024. The last earthquake with M>=3.9 within about 50 km of today's epicenter in Los Angeles, California occurred as an M 4.4 on August 12, 2024 and just to the west of this range as an M 4.7 on September 12, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.7 in the region of Los Angeles, California. NEIC received nearly 20,000 felt reports from residents of Southern California. These included reports of intensity V in Malibu, Agoura Hills, Westlake Village, Thousand Oaks, and IV in Calabasas, Oak Park, Newbury Park, West Hills, Woodland Hills, Camarillo, Canoga Park, Simi Valley, Winnetka, Tarzamna, Santa Monica, Moorpark, Santa Monica, Encino, Reseda, Northridge, Los Angeles, Sherman Oaks, Van Nuys, Somis, Marina del Rey, Beverly Hills, Studio City, Valley Village, North Hollywood, Universal City, Hermosa Beach among others. Intensity III was felt as far as 150 km from the epicenter in places such as San Bernardino and Camp Pendleton, California with II shaking as far as 600 km from the epicenter in Arizona, Nevada, Oregon and Colorado among others. The last earthquake in the Los Angeles with M>=4.7 within about 100 km of today's M 4.7 epicenter occurred as an M 5.1 on August 20, 2023 and prior to that an M 5.1 on March 29, 2014 and M 4.7 on May 18, 2009, the last such event in the Simi Valley near Los Angeles." (March 3, 2025)

 

An M 2.5 in the City of San Francisco, California today was also widely felt. NEIC reported intensity III in San Francisco with II in Daly city, Millbrae, Pacifica, South San Francisco, and San Francisco.

 

An M 3.0 also occurred today off the coast of Northern California. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II in Northern California at Ferndale, Fortuna and Whitethorn.

 

The events in Malibu, San Francisco and off Northern California are all located at 103 degrees from the landfall location of TC Albert and were probably promoted by energy from that source and noted in previous issues of this summary:

 

"This situation has not been previously examined in this summary. What can be said is that the wave of transitional energy from landfall of TC Alfred will likely peak in intensity near the third node (120 degrees) and/or 103 degrees from the landfall point. As this includes much of the active seismic area of western U.S. it could initiate a moderate to strong event or period of active seismicity in that region. This may be delayed several days as new stresses take effect. Other areas at or near 103 degrees from the Australia landfall location are in Pakistan and Afghanistan and off the coast of Washington and Oregon and in Bio-Bio Chile and the Gulf of Aden. As TC Alfred tracks into the landfall, it is possible this is already being observed to some extent as a series of moderate earthquakes in northwestern Washington State and western Canada. An M 3.2 off the coast of Oregon today and an M 2.7 offshore Northern California and an M 2.3 in the Southern California Channel Islands are at 103 degrees  from TC Alfred landfall and could indicate the location of an upcoming significant regional earthquake. The area from San Jose northward to San Francisco Bay is also showing some unrest at this time. The immediate effects of landfall of TC Alfred on Central California are not yet apparent but are likely to be first observed in early to mid- March 8, 2025 and are likely to included a series of unusual regional earthquakes in the next two days." (March 7, 2025)

 

Early indications are that this forecast has exactly matched the seismic character of late March 7 and March 8. Within hours of landfall a series of moderate earthquakes occurred at the third node and near 103 degrees from the landfall location. In California these included an M 2.5 in San Francisco and an M 3.8 along the northern Baja border and to the north an M 4.0 in the Vancouver Island area of British Columbia, Canada. (at 103-105 degrees from Brisbane). It also included an M 3.5 in South Africa at this distance. Seismicity at the third node (120 degrees) included a number of moderate events in Peru (up to M 5.5); Nicaragua, but the most widely felt earthquake of the day occurred at 120 degrees from Brisbane in the area of Armenia and did some damage in that area. Lesser, but unusual earthquakes also were recorded north of Bakersfield, California and in southern and  southeastern Alaska at the time of landfall of TC Alfred. At this writing no strong or major earthquakes have thus far been associated with this cyclone landfall, but this could change.

 

...

 

Still stresses are high along the Pacific-North American plate boundary as it lies at 103 degrees from the landfall of TC Alfred, so a moderate to large earthquake in that section cannot be ruled out at this time. A seismic watch continues in effect for this boundary for the next two days" (March 9, 2025)

 

These earthquakes are at 103 degrees from TC Alfred landfall and was probably promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 170322 and 170604 had expected enhanced seismicity in this area was likely around March 7-13.

 

O: 09MAR2025 20:04:41  34.1N  118.9W ML=2.5  EMSC   GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIF.

O: 09MAR2025 20:07:16  34.1N  118.9W ML=2.9  EMSC   GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIF.

O: 09MAR2025 20:08:14  34.1N  118.9W ML=2.4  EMSC   GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIF.

O: 09MAR2025 22:06:07  34.1N  118.9W ML=2.2  EMSC   GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIF.

O:  9MAR2025 20:03:18  34.1N  118.9W MW=4.1  EMSC   GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALI

P:  7MAR2025 170322    34.9N  119.0W 2.5-4.7 AAAAA  So. California              

P: 13MAR2025 170604    34.2N  118.8W 2.5-4.5 BAAAA  So. California             

 

 

Among earthquakes at the third node (120 degrees) from TC Alfred today was an M 2.9 in South Dakota. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II in South Dakota at Rapid City, Edgemont and Hot Springs. Earthquakes in this area of South Dakota often occur just prior to strong earthquakes along the  North American-Pacific plate boundary. These are most commonly in the northern section of this boundary. However, if this earthquake was triggered at the third node from Alfred this general observation may not apply to this particular event. Still stresses are high along the Pacific-North American plate boundary as it lies at 103 degrees from the landfall of TC Alfred, so a moderate to large earthquake in that section cannot be ruled out at this time. A seismic watch continues in effect for this boundary for the next two days.

 

The strongest earthquake of the day was an M 6.5-6.6 in the Jan Mayen Island area off Eastern Greenland. NEIC reported shaking in the epicentral area up to VIII with III as far as Skage, Norway. This is the strongest earthquake in the world since the M 7.6 in the Cayman Islands of February 8, 2025. A smaller foreshock hit the area with M 4.6 on March 4, 2025 and was discussed in the previous issue of this summary as:

 

 

"An earthquake of M 3.8 was also recorded today in the Greenland Sea. It was not reported felt in this remote area. The last earthquake within about 500 km of this epicenter with M>=3.8 occurred on December 24, 2024 with M 4.5. Two earthquakes about 500 km south west of today's epicenter occurred with M 4.6 on February 3, 2025 and March 4, 2025.

 

The M 4.6 on March 4 was located at 135 degrees from the landfall of TC Alfred. This is the eighth node (45 X 3 =135) and that event may have been promoted by energy from TC Alfred. Occasional triggering at 135 degrees occurs after strong earthquakes, but is not as common as with other nodal distances.

 

Other events near 135 degrees from TC Alfred today included an M 4.9-5.0 in

Southern Greece." (March 9, 2025)

 

Today's earthquake of M 6.5 is the strongest in the Jan Mayen area within about 300 km of this epicenter since an M 6.7 on November 9, 2018. The only other such event in this area in the past 35 years was an M 6.7 on August 30, 2012.

 

At the time of the last such Jan Mayen event this summary noted:

 

"A strong earthquake of M 6.8 hit the Jan Mayen region north of Norway today. It was followed by moderately large earthquakes in the South Atlantic including an M 5.8 in the region of Tristan da Cunha. The Jan Mayen quake may have been felt lightly in Tromso, Norway. With effects from the strongest geomagnetic storm in a month and high astronomical tides, high latitudes had been expected to be active at this time as noted in previous summaries:

 

 

"The geomagnetic field saw disturbed conditions today. The AP level was 10. High latitude geomagnetic field also saw disturbed conditions  with AP at 15. This continues the strongest geomagnetic storm since October 8 when high latitude AP reached 53. KP of 6 was seen in early November 5. Seismicity near the geomagnetic equator and at high latitudes is expected to to be enhanced during the period November 8-13." (November 6-7, 2018)

 

and with tidal stresses

 

...

 

Today's event occurred within less than an hour of local solar midnight suggesting tidal promotion which is high at this hour of day.

 

The last earthquake, and only such event in the past 30 years, in the Jan Mayen Island area, of M>=6.8  within about 300 km of this epicenter occurred August 30, 2012 also with M 6.8. It is interesting to note what this summary said at the time about this event's promotion. These notes could apply to today's event:

 

"Many area(s) at high latitudes saw significant earthquakes today. The strongest of these was an M 6.8 in the Jan Mayen area of the Arctic Ocean ...  This may be a response to geomagnetic storms at high latitudes which occurred 4-5 days ago. There is often a 4-5 day lag between strong geomagnetic storms and subsequent seismicity at high latitudes. It is thought that the solar wind disrupts the auroral ionospheric ring currents during the storm and that these regenerate over the next four days to their strongest levels. The currents in the ionosphere then induce electric currents in the earth beneath at high latitude and these in turn can help promote strong seismicity such as was witnessed today. Some of today's activity was also probably promoted by the full moon today. For example, the M 6.6 in the Jan Mayen area occurred within about an hour of local noon, the maximum time for tidal effects in the area." (November 9, 2018)

 

and with more detail on August 30, 2012 as:

 

"The strongest earthquake in today's high latitude cluster occurred as an M 6.8 in Jan Mayen Island. It was felt by personnel at a research station on the island who reported they watched loose stones and shale sliding down the mountain near their base. No damage or casualties were reported. No tsunami was expected. An M 6.2 in the Svalbard Islands in 2008 was the largest previous earthquake within the borders of Norway but it is unclear if today's earthquake was within Norwegian territorial waters. This earthquake is the strongest located in the region in recent history. Three large earthquakes of M 6.0-6.2 have hit the region in the past 22 years - on January 29, 2011, April 14, 2004 and May 21, 2000. The last similar earthquakes in the area occurred on October 28, 1960 (M 6.8) and June 6, 1951 (M 7.0). These are the only events in the area within 300 km of today's event in the past 100 years.  The quake may have been tidally triggered as it occurred at 13:43 UT. There appears to be about 10-12 years between large earthquakes of M>=6 in the area with events of this magnitude in 1910, 1921-1923, 1934, 1951, 1960-1961, 1971, 1979, 1989, 2000 and 2011-2012. These are generally at solar maximum and geomagnetic triggering is likely. A strong earthquake of M 6.2 hit east of this on May 24, 2012.   The maximum tides associated with the full moon occur today at 13:58 UT. This is near the local noon in the region of Iceland and Jan Mayen. The similarity between the earthquake situation in  May and that today is striking. On May 25 this summary noted in this regard:

 

"The strong activation of seismicity at high latitudes which we reported on  in our summary yesterday continued today.

...

 

This is the strongest earthquake ever recorded within 200 km of this epicenter in the Norwegian Sea. A similar event of M 6.1-6.2 hit the area on June 10, 1929 with events of M 6.0 on January 29, 1959, May 31, 1971 and August 20, 2009. A 41-43 year recurrence can be discerned in this data with strong events in 1929, 1971 and 2012 in late May to early June. This suggests about 40-50 years to  build enough strain in the area to support a strong earthquake. The immediate trigger may have been the strong geomagnetic storm at high latitudes which has been occurring over the past two days.  Followers of the P103 theory that strong earthquakes are often located near 103 degrees following other strong events may be interested that the earthquake in the Norwegian Sea was at 102-103 degrees from the strong M 6.6 in New Guinea a month ago on April 21." (May 25, 2012, August 30, 2012)

 

Today's epicenter is located at a high latitude and occurred near local solar midnight. It may have been promoted by a strong geomagnetic storm today - with the highest AP index in over a month. This AP of 35 was accompanied by a strong geomagnetic storm with A of 49 which peaked about the time of this Jan Mayen earthquake. The last date on which the global AP  index surpassed 35 was on January 1, 2025 when the index was at 86.

 

Jan Mayen Island is primarily used as a nature preserve with some meeorological and military facilities. The M 6.6 in Jan Mayen may be associated with a possible volcanic episode at Beerenberg. This is the most northerly active volcano above Sea level in the world. It sits over the Jan Mayen hotspot and has seen significant historical eruptions starting in 1616 with six since 1732 including minor eruptions in 1970, 1973 and 1985. NOAA issued a tsunami warning following the earthquake but this was later withdrawn when no tsunami waves were detected.

 

This earthquake is at the eighth node (135 degrees) from the landfall of TC Alfred and was probably promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecasts 170415 and 170700 had expected this event was likely within about

25 km around March 8-11.

 

O: 10MAR2025 07:38:52  71.2N    7.7W mb=4.3  EMSC   JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION

O: 10MAR2025 02:33:13  71.2N    8.0W MW=6.5  EMSC   JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION      

P:  8MAR2025 170415    71.0N    8.0W 3.5-5.1 AAAAA  Jan Mayen Isl. area        

P: 11MAR2025 170700    71.0N    8.0W 3.5-6.1 AAAAA  Jan Mayen Isl. area        

 

An unusual M 4.6 earthquake also hit the region of Madagascar near Mahabe today.

It was not reported felt in Madagascar or surroundings as this is a remote area.

This unusual earthquake is the largest within about 250 km of this epicenter since an M 4.7 on November 27, 2016. It was probably triggered by Tropical Storm  Jude which eye passed over this epicenter about the time this earthquake occurred as noted in this and previous issues of this summary:

 

"TROPICAL CYCLONE JUDE (25S)                    

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

TC    JUDE     2025-03-10  00:00 UT  15.8S   43.5E  070 kts  South Indian Ocean east of Madagascar 

 

Tropical Cyclone Jude (25S) formed today in the area of the south Indian Ocean with winds up to 85 kts.  It is expected to track to the south and west over the next several days. The antipode of this storm today is at 15N 137W in the north Pacific and is aseismic. TC Jude is likely to continue inland to a point approximately antipodal to Hawaii by March 11-12, 2025 and is likely to enhance seismicity and volcanism in Hawaii at that time." (March 10, 2025)

 

Forecasts 170142 and 170707 had expected this event within about 50 km was likely in the area of Madagascar in early March, 2025.

 

O:  9MAR2025 19:38:41  16.8S   44.2E MB=4.6  EMSC   MADAGASCAR                   

P: 11MAR2025 170707    17.0S   44.0E 3.0-4.6 AAAAA  Madagascar area            

P: 28FEB2025 170142    18.0S   42.0E 3.0-4.6 CBBAA  Madagascar area            

 

 

 

An unusual earthquake of M 3.0 occurred today in Zimbabwe.  The last earthquake of M>=3.1 within about 200 km of this epicenter was recorded by NEIC as an M 4.6 on November 5, 2021. At the time this summary noted:

 

"An unusual earthquake of M 4.6 was felt today in the area of Mozambique. NEIC reported maximum intensity IV in Chimolo Manica and Beira Sofala, Mozambique and II-III in Zimbabwe at Mutare and Mufoko. This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter in Mozambique since an M 5.4 on December 22, 2018 and an M 5.6 on June 24, 2017." (November 5, 2021)

 

Like the M 3.4 in South Africa of March 8, this event in Zimbabwe is located at 103-104 degrees from the landfall of TC Alfred and may have been promoted by energy from that source. In the previous issue of this summary that event in South Africa had been addressed as:

 

 

"An unusually large M 3.4 also occurred today in South Africa. It was not reported felt in this epicentral area. The last earthquake within about 200  km of this epicenter in South Africa of larger magnitude was an M 3.7 on October 4, 2023 and an M 4.5 on November 17, 2023." (March 9, 2025)

 

This event is located at 104 degrees from the location of the landfall of TC

Alfred and was probably promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 170445 had expected this earthquake in Zimbabwe within about 150 km was likely around March 9, 2025.

 

O: 10MAR2025 04:35:57  20.5S   32.4E ML=3.1  EMSC   ZIMBABWE                     

P:  9MAR2025 170445    22.0S   33.0E 4.0-5.4 ABAAA  So. Indian Ocean           

 

Landfall of TC Alfred was accompanied by a minor earthquake of M 2.5 to the south today. The last earthquake of M>=2.5 within about 100 km of this epicenter occurred as an M 3.2 on September 10, 2012. A series of events about 100 km northwest of today's epicenter has occurred near Denman, Australia beginning on August 23, 2024. This is the only significant activity in this area since 2019. It is likely today's event was promoted by stresses from TC Alfred's landfall.

 

 

O:  8MAR2025 11:21:15  32.9S  151.4E ML=2.5  EMSC   NEAR S.E. COAST OF AUSTRALIA 

 

An earthquake of M 3.8 was also recorded today in the Greenland Sea. It was not reported felt in this remote area. The last earthquake within about 500 km of this epicenter with M>=3.8 occurred on December 24, 2024 with M 4.5. Two earthquakes about 500 km south west of today's epicenter occurred with M 4.6 on February 3, 2025 and March 4, 2025.

 

The M 4.6 on March 4 was located at 135 degrees from the landfall of TC Alfred.

This is the eighth node (45 X 3 =135) and that event may have been promoted by energy from TC Alfred. Occasional triggering at 135 degrees occurs after strong earthquakes, but is not as common as with other nodal distances.

 

 

A series of moderate earthquakes occurred in a path across Guatemala, and Oaxaca, Chiapas and Guerrero, Mexico today. This volcanism is at the third node (120 degrees) from landfall of TC Alfred and was probably promoted by energy from that source.

 

These earthquakes in eastern Mexico and Guatemala are occurring along the antipode to TC Ivone as expected in previous issues of this summary:

 

"TROPICAL CYCLONE IVONE  (24S)                   

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

TC    IVONE    2025-03-10  00:00 UT  17.2S   83.1E  060 kts  South Indian Ocean  

 

Tropical Cyclone Ivone  (24S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean with winds up to 60 kts.  It is expected to track to the south and west over the next several days. The antipode of this storm today is at 16N 97W in Oaxaca Mexico. This is a seismic area and is likely to see seismic enhancement as TC Ivone is near the antipode. The areas of Chiapas and Oaxaca are under a moderate seismic for the duration of Ivone at the antipode." (March 8-10, 2025)

 

This series began with an eruption of Fuego near Alotenango, Guatemala two days ago and has caused the evacuation of 300 families and possible evacuation of up to 300,000 as the eruption continues. Another volcano in danger of eruption along this path of westward moving seismicity is Popocatepetl north of Mexico City, which is likely to see increased volcanism in the next two days.

 

This series is at the antipode to TC Ivone and near the third node (120 degrees) from the landfall of TC Alfred and was probably promoted by energy from those sources.

 

 

O:  9MAR2025 21:05:06  14.4N   92.8W ML=4.1  EMSC   OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO     

P:  8MAR2025 170228    15.0N   94.0W 3.5-5.3 AAAAA  Chiapas, Mexico            

 

O:  9MAR2025 18:57:01  15.4N   94.5W ML=4.0  EMSC   OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICO      

P:  8MAR2025 170228    15.0N   94.0W 3.5-5.3 AAAAA  Chiapas, Mexico            

 

O:  9MAR2025 19:35:11  17.2N   95.5W ML=4.0  EMSC   OAXACA, MEXICO               

P:  9MAR2025 170230    17.0N   95.0W 3.5-5.2 AAAAA  Chiapas, Mexico            

 

O: 10MAR2025 05:14:54  16.3N   97.9W ML=4.2  EMSC   OAXACA, MEXICO

O: 09MAR2025 19:09:46  16.5N   99.5W ML=4.1  EMSC   OFFSHORE GUERRERO, MEXICO

O: 09MAR2025 07:27:53  17.1N   99.8W ML=4.0  EMSC   GUERRERO, MEXICO

O: 10MAR2025 05:21:25  16.2N   98.0W ML=4.3  EMSC   OAXACA, MEXICO               

P:  8MAR2025 170246    16.0N   99.0W 3.5-5.5 AAAAA  Oaxaca, Mexico              

 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.8 in the Sea of Japan was not felt. This epicenter is at the fifth node from TC Alfred landfall and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 170348 had expected enhanced seismicity in this area in early March, 2025.

 

O: 10MAR2025 00:51:37  43.5N  139.7E MB=4.8  EMSC   EASTERN SEA OF JAPAN         

P:  4MAR2025 170348    43.0N  143.0E 3.5-5.6 CACAA  Hokkaido, Japan            

 

 

MODERATELY STRONG QUAKES IN RYUKYU ISLANDS PROMOTED FROM TC ALFRED LANDFALL

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 8, 2025

 

 

A series of moderately strong earthquakes occurred today in the Ryukyu Islands, south of Kyushu, Japan today. The largest of these were M 5.7-6.0. They reported felt with intensity up to IV in the epicentral area. These epicenters are at 60.0 degrees (node 6) from the landfall of TC Alfred near Brisbane, Australia early on March 8, 2025 and were probably triggered by energy from that source. Other earthquakes today at the sixth node from  Alfred's landfall included moderate quakes in Sumatra, the Bonin Islands and Taiwan. The sixth node has also been active from Alfred at 120 degrees from that source and has included a number of significant earthquakes in South and Central America and in Armenia and central Asia.

 

Today's events of M 5.7 in the Ryukyu Islands of Japan are the largest events within about 200 km of these epicenters since an M 6.6 on June 13, 2020. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"A strong M 6.6-6.8 earthquake occurred today in the area of the northern Ryukyu Islands, Japan. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity IV in Kagoshima, and Okinawa, Japan. JMA reported it at M 6.3 and that it was felt with moderate intensity in southern and central Japan. Several days before an unusual earthquake off western North Island, New Zealand a great quake in southern Honshu occurred on December 20, 1946.

 

...

 

It might be added that the M 4.9 off Spain, near the antipode of the New Zealand event was located at 103 degrees from the Ryukyu epicenter.

 

No tsunami was reported with today's event which is at the lower limit of magnitude that might generate a tsunami. It occurred at 100 km too deep to generate a sizable tsunami as well. The last earthquake in the Ryukyu Islands with M>=6.7 within about 250 km of  today's epicenter was an M 6.7 on November 13, 2015 and prior to that an M 6.9 on November 8, 2011. The only such event in the region in the past 30 years had been an M 7.1 on October 18, 1995." (June 13, 2020)

 

Forecast 170266 had expected this activity in this region was likely around March 10, 2025.

 

 

O: 09MAR2025 00:09:21  28.6N  130.1E mb=4.7  EMSC   RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN

O: 08MAR2025 18:54:03  28.7N  130.2E Mw=5.7  EMSC   RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN

O: 08MAR2025 18:57:30  28.7N  130.3E ML=4.1  EMSC   RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN

O: 08MAR2025 19:07:30  28.7N  130.2E ML=3.9  EMSC   RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN

O: 08MAR2025 23:42:54  28.7N  130.3E Mw=5.7  EMSC   RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN

O: 09MAR2025 00:04:30  28.7N  130.2E ML=4.1  EMSC   RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN

O: 09MAR2025 05:20:54  28.7N  130.1E mb=4.9  EMSC   RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN

O: 09MAR2025 05:24:19  28.7N  130.1E mb=5.1  EMSC   RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN

O: 09MAR2025 06:57:57  28.7N  130.1E mb=5.2  EMSC   RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN

O:  8MAR2025 15:37:33  28.9N  130.4E ML=3.5  EMSC   RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN        

P: 10MAR2025 170266    28.0N  128.0E 4.0-5.4 AABAA  Ryukyu Islands             

 

 

Among earthquakes at the third node (120 degrees) from TC Alfred today was an M 2.9 in South Dakota. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II in South Dakota at Rapid City, Edgemont and Hot Springs. The last earthquake of M>=2.9 within about 150 km of this epicenter in South Dakota was an M 3.4 on March 26, 2021.

At the time this summary noted:

 

"An earthquake of M 3.4 occurred today in western South Dakota. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II-III in South Dakota at Edgemont, Hot Springs, Custer, Oelrichs, Rapid City, Spearfish, Holabiro and in Upton, Wyoming. Earthquakes in this area of South Dakota often precede by hours or days strong earthquakes in Alaska." (March 26, 2021)

 

Prior to that the last event of larger magnitude in this area of South Dakota occurred as events of M 4.0 on November 14, 2011 followed by an aftershock of  M 3.3 on November 15, 2011. At the time of these events this summary noted:

 

" ... The largest earthquakes within 200 km of this epicenter in the past 22 years occurred with a similar magnitude of M 3.7 fifteen years ago on February 6 and April 9, 1996 near this epicenter. The  strongest earthquake recorded in western South Dakota occurred in conjunction with the great Alaskan earthquake of March 28, 1964. A similar event preceded the great Denali earthquake in Alaska on November 2, 2002. We have termed such earthquakes "canary quakes" and previously described these are plate creakings suggesting a strong upcoming event. For example in our summary on November 2-3, 2002 we noted this as follows:

 

"The Alaskan earthquake today was preceded by a Ml 4.3 event about an hour and a half prior in eastern Nebraska. Two earthquakes occurred in Kansas on  November 1 (Ml 3.0, 2.8). Such earthquakes often precede great earthquakes in Alaska and other areas on the borders of North America.  The resemblance of this great plains foreshock series to that which preceded the great Alaska earthquake of March, 1964 is uncanny, if there is no causative relation. In 1964 a Ml 4.3 earthquake was felt along the South Dakota/Nebraska border about 30 minutes before the Great quake in Alaska, one of the largest ever recorded in this region. This had been preceded by smaller earthquake in the same region on March 24 and 27. Today's Nebraska earthquake occurred 1.5 hours before the great Alaska event and had been preceded by the Kansas earthquakes by two days.  Since all of these are unusual events, their coincidence in time (in more than one occasion) may be significant." (November 2-3, 2002)

 

Such earthquakes do not always precede major plate boundary events and sometimes as an earthquake in this area in early May, 1906, they follow strong plate boundary events. In 1906 an M 4.0 near today's South Dakota epicenter followed the great San Francisco earthquake of April 18, 1906. The Aleutians were active today as well with several moderate earthquakes in the Fox Islands and the Alaskan Peninsula. In view of this activity we are placing Alaska and the Aleutians under seismic watch conditions for the next four days with a 20% chance of a major earthquake on the Pacific/North American plate boundary in the next week. This is most likely to occur in the Aleutian/Alaska sector but could occur along the Mexican subduction zone or in Central California with lesser probability.

 

The activity preceding the great Alaska earthquakes of March 1964 and November 2002 began several days prior to those events in the central plains of the U.S. Like those instances, today's event in South Dakota is part of a major activation of the Central United States seismicity. This has included once in a century events in Texas, Oklahoma and Colorado in the past three months. It is possible that the South Dakota event is part of this activation and is more closely related to tidal triggering from the full moon two days ago than to an upcoming event on the plate boundary. Earthquakes in the past two days in Montana, Idaho and Utah which also are the strongest in those regions in several years, however further suggest that a tectonic shift along the North America/Pacific Plate boundary is likely quite soon." (November 14, 2011)

 

 

 

Earthquakes in this area of South Dakota often occur just prior to strong earthquakes along the North American-Pacific plate boundary. These are most commonly in the northern section of this boundary. However, if this earthquake was triggered at the third node from Alfred this general observation may not apply to this particular event. Still stresses are high along the Pacific-North American plate boundary as it lies at 103 degrees from the landfall of TC Alfred (currently given as 27.8S 152E near Brisbane, Australia), so a moderate to large earthquake in that section cannot be ruled out at this time. A seismic watch continues in effect for this boundary for the next two days.

 

Forecast 170345 had expected regional seismic enhancement was likely in this

area in early March, 2025.

 

O:  9MAR2025 04:14:28  43.6N  103.4W ML=2.9  EMSC   SOUTH DAKOTA                 

P:  6MAR2025 170345    40.6N  106.6W 2.0-4.0 BCBAA  Colorado area              

 

The second strongest earthquake in the U.S., Canada or Vicinity today was an M 3.8 in the northern Gulf of California near the California border. The last earthquake within about 100 km of this epicenter with M>3.8 was recorded as an M 4.1 on February 26, 2024. The only other events of this magnitude or higher in the past two years were an M 4.0 on January 3, 2024 and an M 4.6 on July 16, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

"A strong swarm of earthquakes also occurred today in Baja and the Gulf of

California, Mexico. The strongest earthquakes in this series occurred within  minutes of local solar noon with M 4.6 and 4.3 but the series began with smaller event including an M 4.0 shortly after the M 7.2 in the Alaska Peninsula.  NEIC reported the earthquake of M 4.6 in the Gulf of California, Mexico was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of  Sonora, Mexico in Puerto Penasco (VI) and Sonoita; in San Felipe, Baja California and in Arizona at Somerton (IV), Wellton, and Sells. Several moderate earthquakes including an M 4.2 were also felt in Baja California today. These were felt lightly in Baja California at Tijuana." (July 16, 2023)

 

 

This epicenter is at 106-107 degrees from the landfall of TC Alfred and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 170311 had expected this event within about 50 km was likely in early March, 2025 in association with TC Alfred landfall.

 

O:  8MAR2025 15:19:42  31.5N  113.9W ML=3.8  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA           

P:  3MAR2025 170311    31.2N  114.1W 2.0-3.9 BAAAA  SW U.S.A                    

P:  6MAR2025 170311    30.2N  114.1W 2.0-3.9 ABAAA  SW U.S.A                   

 

The largest earthquake today in the U.S. or Canada occurred in the Vancouver Island area of British Columbia, Canada with M 4.0. It was not reported felt in this remote area. This epicenter is located at 103 degrees from the landfall of TC Alfred and occurred during the landfall event. It is likely it was promoted by energy from that source. Other events at this distance from TC Alfred today occurred in the Gulf of California, Baja and Southern California, Los Osos, California, off the coast of northern California, southern Alaska, Zimbabwe.

 

The last earthquake of larger magnitude in the Vancouver Island, BC area of Canada was an M 5.3 on February 25, 2025 and prior to that an M 4.0 on February 6, 2025. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.6 near Vancouver Island, British Columbia. It was reported lightly felt in the epicentral area. This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of today's epicenter since an M 4.9 on December 25, 2024. Both are apparently aftershocks of an M 6.5 on September 15, 2024." (February 6, 2025)

 

Forecasts 170385 and 170376 had expected today's event within about 25 km was

likely around March 3-7, 2025.

 

O: 08MAR2025 05:00:43  50.8N  130.2W MB=4.0  ECAN W OF PORT HARDY, BC 

O:  8MAR2025 05:00:43  50.8N  130.2W ML=4.0  EMSC   VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGIO

P:  3MAR2025 170385    50.7N  130.5W 3.0-5.1 BAAAA  British Colombia            

P:  7MAR2025 170376    48.9N  129.3W 2.8-5.1 ABAAA  Vancouver Island area      

 

An unusual earthquake of M 3.0 occurred today in Zimbabwe. Like the M 3.4 in South Africa of March 8, this event in Zimbabwe is located at 103-104 degrees from the landfall of TC Alfred and may have been promoted by energy from that source. In the previous issue of this summary that event in South Africa had been addressed as:

 

 

"An unusually large M 3.4 also occurred today in South Africa. It was not reported felt in this epicentral area. The last earthquake within about 200  km of this epicenter in South Africa of larger magnitude was an M 3.7 on October 4, 2023 and an M 4.5 on November 17, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

"An unusually large event of M 4.5 occurred today in the region of South Africa.

NEIC reported this earthquake of M 4.5 in South Africa was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of South Africa in Orkney.  This is the strongest earthquake within South Africa since an M 5.0 on June 11, 2023. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

"An unusually large earthquake of M 5.0 was widely felt in the region of Johannesburg, Gauteng, South Africa today. NEIC reported maximum shaking of V in Gauteng at Alberton, Boksburg, Brakpan, Heidelberg, Springs with IV in Johannesburg, Benoni, Randvaal, Soweto, Nigel. The earthquake was felt within about 500 km of the epicenter including as far as Free State, Natal, KwaZulu, Mpumalanga, Limpopo, Botswana, Northern and Eastern Cape, with intensity of III-V. Press accounts indicated no damage or casualties were associated with this earthquake which lasted for about 30 seconds shaking time. This is the strongest earthquake in South Africa within about 400 km of this epicenter since an M It is located near the antipode of the eruption of Kilauea Volcano in Hawaii of June 8. The last earthquakes of significantly larger magnitude in this area were an M 5.3 on August 5, 2014 and prior to that an M 5.7 on April 22, 1999 - the largest in the area in the past 35 years." (June 10, 2023, November 17, 2023)

 

Today's epicenter in South Africa is at 103 degrees from the landfall position of TC Alfred in Australia and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 170443 had expected this event within about 10 km was likely around

March 7, 2025." (March 8, 2025)

 

 

O:  8MAR2025 00:27:21  26.0S   27.9E ML=3.4  EMSC   SOUTH AFRICA                 

P:  7MAR2025 170443    26.0S   28.0E 3.0-4.6 AAAAA  Rep. South Africa          

 

Landfall of TC Alfred was accompanied by a minor earthquake of M 2.5 to the south today. The last earthquake of M>=2.5 within about 100 km of this epicenter occurred as an M 3.2 on September 10, 2012. A series of events about 100 km northwest of today's epicenter has occurred near Denman, Australia beginning on August 23, 2024. This is the only significant activity in this area since 2019. It is likely today's event was promoted by stresses from TC Alfred's landfall.

 

 

O:  8MAR2025 11:21:15  32.9S  151.4E ML=2.5  EMSC   NEAR S.E. COAST OF AUSTRALIA 

 

An earthquake of M 3.8 was also recorded today in the Greenland Sea. It was not reported felt in this remote area. The last earthquake within about 500 km of this epicenter with M>=3.8 occurred on December 24, 2024 with M 4.5. Two earthquakes about 500 km south west of today's epicenter occurred with M 4.6 on February 3, 2025 and March 4, 2025.

 

The M 4.6 on March 4 was located at 135 degrees from the landfall of TC Alfred. This is the eighth node (45 X 3 =135) and that event may have been promoted by energy from TC Alfred. Occasional triggering at 135 degrees occurs after strong earthquakes, but is not as common as with other nodal distances.

 

Other events near 135 degrees from TC Alfred today included an M 4.9-5.0 in

Southern Greece.

 

Forecast 170416 had expected this event within about 200 km was likely

around March 10, 2025.

 

O:  9MAR2025 01:33:55  75.6N    7.2E MB=3.8  EMSC   GREENLAND SEA                

P: 10MAR2025 170416    74.0N   14.0E 3.0-4.6 ABAAA  Norway                     

 

 

 

 

MODERATE EARTHQUAKE SHAKES NW WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA

 

E

SEISMIC EFFECTS FROM TC ALFRED BEGIN TO BE FELT

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 7, 2025

 

 

The strongest earthquakes in the world today were both of M 5.4 and occurred

within less than half an hour in northern Sumatra in the Banda Aceh area and in

Peru in the Cusco area where it was felt with intensity II-III in Cusco and Santo Tomas, Peru. Like the event in Armenia today (see below) this earthquake in Peru is located at the third node (120 degrees) from the landfall position of TC Alfred in Australia and was probably promoted by energy from that source.

 

The M 5.4 in Central Peru today is the strongest event within about 150 km of that epicenter since an M 7.2 on May 26, 2022. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

 

"NEIC reported this earthquake (M 7.2, Peru) was felt with maximum intensity VII in southern Funo, Peru in  Azangaro, Ayaviti and Nunca with IV in Futina and IV in Arequipa. Lesser shaking occurred in the Cusco region of Peru. Only one other earthquake of equal or larger magnitude has occurred in Southern Peru within about 300 km of today's epicenter - an M 7.5-7.6 on July 7, 2001." (May 26, 2022)

 

Forecast 170419 had expected this event within about 100 km was likely around

March 8.

 

O:  7MAR2025 12:17:51  14.6S   72.0W MW=5.4  EMSC   CENTRAL PERU                  

P:  8MAR2025 170419    15.0S   73.0W 4.0-5.6 AAAAA  Central Peru               

 

The earthquake in Northern Sumatra of M 5.4 is the largest in Northern Sumatra within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 5.4 on July 9, 2023. At the time this summary noted: 

 

"An M 5.4 also occurred in the Nicobar Islands of India today. NEIC reported this earthquake of M 5.4 in Sumatra, Indonesia was felt with intensity V in the area(s) of Sumatra, Indonesia in Banda Aceh. BMG reported it was felt with intensity III in Aceh Besar, Pidie, Aceh Jaya, Kota Banda Aceh and II in Aceh Tengah, Barat, Besar, Bireuen, Nagan Raya, Sabang and Bogor. This event was not damaging and did not trigger a tsunami. The last earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter with M>=5.4 occurred on  March 5, 2022 with M 5.5. The last event with stronger magnitude hit the region with M 6.5 on December 6, 2016." (July 9, 2023)

 

This epicenter is near the sixth node (60 degrees) from the landfall position of TC Alfred and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

 

Forecast 170204 had expected this event within about 250 km was likely around

March 6, 2025.

 

O:  7MAR2025 12:42:49   5.5N   94.7E MB=5.4  EMSC   NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA  

P:  6MAR2025 170204     3.0N   93.0E 4.0-5.6 ACBAA  Nicobar Islands            

 

An M 4.0 foreshock occurred in northern Sumatra earlier in the day. Like events in Japan and Taiwan today this epicenter is located at the sixth node from landfall of TC Alfred and may have been promoted by energy from that source. Forecast 170205 had expected this event within about 100 km was likely in  early March, 2025. This epicenter is nearly antipodal to an M 5.3 in Ecuador today.

 

 

O:  8MAR2025 02:08:06   2.7N   99.1E ML=4.0  EMSC   NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA  

P:  4MAR2025 170205     2.0N  100.0E 4.0-5.4 BAAAA  So. Sumatera               

 

An M 4.4 was widely felt in Armenia and Georgia today. NEIC reported minor damage and intensity up to VI in Aremnia at Jrashen, Lori and IV in Yerevan and Vanadzor with similar shaking in Tbilisi, Georgia. Intensity III was reported in Zahesi, Georgia and II in Samgori, Bakuriani, and Tskneti. EMSC reported it was felt strongly in Armenia at Vanadzor, Stepanavan, Alaverdi, Spitak, Dilijan, Aparan, Gyumri, Yeghvard, Abovyan, Yerevan, and in Georgia at Rustavi, Tbilisi, Bak'uriani, Akhaltsikhe, and in Korktum, Ufuktepe, Turkey. This epicenter is located at 120 degrees (node 3) from the landfall of TC Alfred which was occurring when the earthquake occurred and was probably promoted by energy from that source.

 

The last earthquake in Armenia of M>=4.6 within about 200 km of today's epicenter was recorded on September 27, 2022 (M 5.3) and was noted in this summary at the time as:

 

"An M 5.3 was also felt in eastern Turkey near the Georgia border today.

NEIC reported these earthquake of M 5.3 and 4.4 in Eastern Turkey was felt with intensity CI in Susuz, Kars, Turkey and II-III in the area(s) of  in Tbilisi and Batumi, Ajaria, Georgia. A similar M 5.3 hit within about 200 km on February 13, 2022 but the only earthquake of larger magnitude in this area of eastern Turkey in the past thirty-two years was an M 5.5 on December 16, 1990." (September 27, 2022)

 

 

Forecast 170344 had expected today's event was likely within about 100 km of this epicenter around March 6.

 

 

O: 08MAR2025 06:31:53  41.0N   44.3E ML=3.4  EMSC   ARMENIA

O:  8MAR2025 05:27:00  40.9N   44.6E MW=4.6  EMSC   ARMENIA                      

P:  6MAR2025 170344    40.0N   44.0E 3.5-5.1 AAAAA  Caucasus/Caspian Sea       

 

An unusually large M 3.4 also occurred today in South Africa. It was not reported felt in this epicentral area. The last earthquake within about 200  km of this epicenter in South Africa of larger magnitude was an M 3.7 on October 4, 2023 and an M 4.5 on November 17, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

"An unusually large event of M 4.5 occurred today in the region of South Africa.

NEIC reported this earthquake of M 4.5 in South Africa was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of South Africa in Orkney.  This is the strongest earthquake within South Africa since an M 5.0 on June 11, 2023. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

"An unusually large earthquake of M 5.0 was widely felt in the region of Johannesburg, Gauteng, South Africa today. NEIC reported maximum shaking of V in Gauteng at Alberton, Boksburg, Brakpan, Heidelberg, Springs with IV in Johannesburg, Benoni, Randvaal, Soweto, Nigel. The earthquake was felt within about 500 km of the epicenter including as far as Free State, Natal, KwaZulu, Mpumalanga, Limpopo, Botswana, Northern and Eastern Cape, with intensity of III-V. Press accounts indicated no damage or casualties were associated with this earthquake which lasted for about 30 seconds shaking time. This is the strongest earthquake in South Africa within about 400 km of this epicenter since an M It is located near the antipode of the eruption of Kilauea Volcano in Hawaii of June 8. The last earthquakes of significantly larger magnitude in this area were an M 5.3 on August 5, 2014 and prior to that an M 5.7 on April 22, 1999 - the largest in the area in the past 35 years." (June 10, 2023, November 17, 2023)

 

Today's epicenter in South Africa is at 103 degrees from the landfall position of TC Alfred in Australia and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 170443 had expected this event within about 10 km was likely around

March 7, 2025.

 

 

O:  8MAR2025 00:27:21  26.0S   27.9E ML=3.4  EMSC   SOUTH AFRICA                 

P:  7MAR2025 170443    26.0S   28.0E 3.0-4.6 AAAAA  Rep. South Africa          

 

The largest earthquake today in the U.S. or Canada occurred in the Vancouver Island area of British Columbia, Canada with M 4.0. It was not reported felt in this remote area. This epicenter is located at 103 degrees from the landfall of TC Alfred and occurred during the landfall event. It is likely it was promoted by energy from that source.

 

The last earthquake of larger magnitude in the Vancouver Island, BC area of Canada was an M 5.3 on February 25, 2025 and prior to that an M 4.0 on February 6, 2025. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.6 near Vancouver Island, British Columbia. It was reported lightly felt in the epicentral area. This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of today's epicenter since an M 4.9 on December 25, 2024. Both are apparently aftershocks of an M 6.5 on September 15, 2024." (February 6, 2025)

 

Forecasts 170385 and 170376 had expected today's event within about 25 km was likely around March 3-7, 2025.

 

O: 08MAR2025 05:00:43  50.8N  130.2W MB=4.0  ECAN W OF PORT HARDY, BC 

O:  8MAR2025 05:00:43  50.8N  130.2W ML=4.0  EMSC   VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGIO

P:  3MAR2025 170385    50.7N  130.5W 3.0-5.1 BAAAA  British Colombia           

P:  7MAR2025 170376    48.9N  129.3W 2.8-5.1 ABAAA  Vancouver Island area      

 

A light earthquake of M 2.4 was also felt in the San Francisco Bay area of California today.

 

This epicenter is located at 103 degrees from the landfall of TC Alfred and occurred during the landfall event. It is likely it was promoted by energy  from that source.

 

Forecast 170281 had expected today's event within about 25 km was likely around March 8, 2025.

 

O:  7MAR2025 14:44:17  38.0N  122.0W MD=2.4  EMSC   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.

P:  8MAR2025 170281    37.7N  121.9W 2.5-4.8 AAAAA  Central California         

 

Other areas where moderate earthquakes occurred today and which are located near 103 degrees from TC Alfred landfall included an M 3.8 in Bio-Bio and Coquimbo, Chile and an M 3.4 in the Gulf of California.

 

O:  7MAR2025 22:58:52  27.8N  111.9W ML=3.4  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA           

P:  9MAR2025 170256    28.0N  112.0W 3.5-5.2 AAAAA  Gulf of California         

 

O:  8MAR2025 04:07:49  37.8S   71.4W ML=3.8  EMSC   BIO-BIO, CHILE               

P:  6MAR2025 170456    37.0S   73.0W 4.0-5.6 AAAAA  Central Chile              

 

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED (18P)                  

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

TC    ALFRED   2025-03-08  00:00 UT  27.5S  153.7E  055 kts  East of northern Australia

 

TC Alfred is made landfall near Brisbane north of Sydney, Australia August 8, 2025 winds up to 45 kts. It then stalled and tracked to the north. Considerable damage to property was reported on the web in the Brisbane, Australia area. At least one person was killed by this storm. Landfall of this Cyclone was expected in this summary to help promote seismicity at nodal distances from Australia, especially near the third node (120 degrees) and the seventh node at 103 degrees which run along active seismic areas. The forecast for global seismic enhancement with this storm as published in the previous issue of this summary read:

 

"This is the strongest Tropical Cyclone to hit eastern Australia in about 50 years. Some regional seismic enhancement is possible in eastern Australia and New South Wales in the next several days. The antipode of this expected landfall is at 28N 28W - in the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge area. This area is not at a precise antipode to a regional seismic center, but diffuse seismicity in the North Atlantic Ridge,  especially near the active area of the Canary Islands,  is possible with this landfall.

 

At the moment the most likely earthquakes associated with landfall of TC Alfred around March 7-8 appear to be near 103 degrees from that landfall point which follows the San Andreas fault in Baja and in Western California north to Washington State including the area off the coast of Northern California north to Vancouver Island and southern Alaska where stresses may maximize. Other regions at this distance from TC Alfred landfall include South Africa and Coquimbo, Chile where enhanced seismicity is also expected with landfall of TC Alfred. A second distance is at the third node (120 degrees) from the landfall

In the past day several significant earthquakes have occurred near this distance from the expected landfall. This included the strongest earthquake of the day - an M 6.1 in Atacama, Chile; a series of moderate events in  Nicaragua and an M 4.9 in the Caucasus area of Russia. Other regions at this distance from TC Alfred landfall include Armenia, Azerbaijan, the Caucasus where enhanced seismicity is also expected with landfall.

 

This situation has not been previously examined in this summary. What can be said is that the wave of transitional energy from landfall of TC Alfred will likely peak in intensity near the third node (120 degrees) and/or 103 degrees from the landfall point. As this includes much of the active seismic area of western U.S. it could  initiate an moderate to strong event or period of active seismicity in that region. This may be delayed several days as new stresses take effect. Other areas at or near 103 degrees from the Australia landfall location are in Pakistan and Afghanistan and off the coast of Washington and Oregon and in Bio-Bio Chile. As TC Alfred tracks into the landfall, it is possible this is already being observed to some extent as a series of moderate earthquakes in northwestern Washington State and western Canada. An M 3.2 off the coast of Oregon today and an M 2.7 offshore Northern California and an M 2.3 in the Southern California Channel Islands are at 103 degrees  from TC Alfred landfall and could indicate the location of an upcoming significant regional earthquake. The area from San Jose northward to San Francisco Bay is also showing some unrest at this time. The immediate effects of landfall of TC Alfred on Central California are not yet apparent but are likely to be first observed in early to mid- March 8, 2025 and are likely to included a series of unusual regional earthquakes in the next two days." (March 7, 2025)

 

Early indications are that this forecast has exactly matched the seismic character of late March 7 and March 8. Within hours of landfall a series of moderate earthquakes occurred at the third node and near 103 degrees from the landfall location. In California these included an M 2.5 in San Francisco and an M 3.8 along the northern Baja border and to the north an M 4.0 in the Vancouver Island area of British Columbia, Canada. (at 103-105 degrees from Brisbane). It also included an M 3.5 in South Africa at this distance. Seismicity at the third node (120 degrees) included a number of moderate events in Peru (up to M 5.5); Nicaragua, but the most widely felt earthquake of the day occurred at 120 degrees from Brisbane in the area of Armenia and did some damage in that area. Lesser, but unusual earthquakes also were recorded north of Bakersfield, California and in southern and southeastern Alaska at the time of landfall of TC Alfred. At this writing no strong or major earthquakes have thus far been associated with this cyclone landfall, but this could change.

 

Looking forward the area of Taiwan north to southern Japan near the Ryukyu Islands and Kyushu is at the sixth node (60 degrees) from TC Alfred landfall and could be vulnerable to seismic triggering at this time. Several moderate earthquakes including an M 5.3 have hit Honshu and an M 4.1 in Taiwan today during the landfall period. The sixth node is associated with the third node as both affect the same areas. The third node at 120 degrees has seen significant seismic triggering in the past several days, including the M 5.4 in Peru today (see above).

 

O:  7MAR2025 19:16:49  32.2N  137.9E MB=4.1  EMSC   IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION    

P:  6MAR2025 170285    33.0N  138.0E 3.5-5.1 AAAAA  Central/So. Honshu Japan   

 

O:  8MAR2025 07:12:16  40.2N  142.3E MW=5.2  EMSC   NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU,   

P:  7MAR2025 170348    41.0N  143.0E 3.5-5.7 AAAAA  Hokkaido, Japan            

 

O:  7MAR2025 20:43:03  23.9N  121.5E ML=4.1  EMSC   TAIWAN                       

P:  8MAR2025 170269    22.0N  122.0E 4.0-5.4 ABAAA  Taiwan                     

 

This epicenter in Taiwan is at the sixth node from the landfall of TC Alfred and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

An M 4.0 earthquake also  occurred in northern Sumatra earlier in the day. Like events in Japan and Taiwan today this epicenter is located at the sixth node from landfall of TC Alfred and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O:  8MAR2025 02:08:06   2.7N   99.1E ML=4.0  EMSC   NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA  

P:  4MAR2025 170205     2.0N  100.0E 4.0-5.4 BAAAA  So. Sumatera                

 

O:  7MAR2025 12:42:49   5.5N   94.7E MB=5.4  EMSC   NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA  

P:  6MAR2025 170204     3.0N   93.0E 4.0-5.6 ACBAA  Nicobar Islands            

 

 

ARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR March 3, 2025

 

 

A moderate M 4.5 shook regions of northwestern Washington State and southern British Columbia. NEIC reported maximum intensity from this earthquake near Orcas Island, Washington at Eastsound, Friday Harbor, Lopez Island, Olga, Woodinville, Renton, Fox Island, Tacoma and in British Columbia at Cumberland and Sidney. Intensity III was felt in Portland, Eugene and Springfield, Oregon and in most areas of northwestern Washington including at Seattle and Bellingham, with similar shaking in British Columbia in Duncan, Cowichan Valley, Vancouver, Victoria among many other communities. Lesser shaking of intensity II was reported from Idaho, northern California, and as far as about 400 km from the epicenter. A series of light aftershocks followed the mainshock. A foreshock of M 1.3 occurred three minutes before the mainshock. No tsunami was observed nor expected.

 

This follows a similar event of February 25, 2025. These had been reviewed in the previous issue of this summary as part of a regional seismic activation antipodal to TC Garance in part as:

 

"As TC Garance dissipates in the next day, near antipodal seismicity is expected to continue to the north of Los Angeles. An area of interest in this regard, is northwestern Washington State which has seen a series of moderate earthquakes in the past week and could see additional such activity in the next several days. Two light earthquakes of M 1.9 and 2.0 occurred in this area of Washington today. The larger of these of M 2.0 occurred near local solar noon and may have been promoted by tidal stresses. Recent events occurred in this area and were reported in this summary as:

 

 

"NEIC reported a light M 3.3 was felt in the region of Snoqualmie, Washington today. NEIC reported intensity III was felt in Snoqualmie, North Bend, Lynnwood, Gold Bar, Sultan, Washington and in Lake Cowichan, British Columbia, Canada and in Astoria, Oregon. Lesser shaking was felt in Washington at Bothell, Carnation, Duvall, Fall City, Issaquah, Redmond, Renton and Seattle among others. A foreshock today of M 2.8 in Washington State was reported felt with intensity II-III at Gold Bar, Bremerton, Issaquah, Seattle, Bremerton, Hansville, Port Orchard, Tacoma, Belfair, Hoodsport, Maple Valley, ?North Bend, Seattle and in Vicoria British Columbia, Canada." (February 27, 2025)

 

The last earthquake of M>=3.0 prior to this was an M 3.4 on February 22, 2025 and an M 4.8 about 300 km northwest of this on February 21, 2025. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

 

"A moderate earthquake of M 4.8 shook the area of northeastern Washington State and Southeastern British Columbia east of Vancouver B.C today. NEIC reported maximum shaking of intensity V in Sechelt, British Columbia, Canada and IV in B.C. at Cwichan Valley, Duncan, Gibsons, Lake Cowichan, Lions Bay, Nanaimo, Powell River, Squamist and in Washing at Maple Falls, Vancouver, Ellensburg, Maple Fall and Greenbank. Intensity III was felt in Washington State at Arlington, Concrete, Eastsound, Everson, Friday Harbor, Point Roberts, Lynden, Port Angeles, Vancouver among others and in British Columbia, Canada at Abbotsford, Campbell River, Chemainus, Ladysmith, Parksville, Pemberton, Vancouver, Victoria, Walnut Grove, Whistler, White Rock among others with lesser shaking as far as Seattle, Everett, Bellingham, and as far as Rufus, Oregon.

This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter to occur since an M 4.9 on December 30, 2015. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The most widely felt earthquake of the day was the M 4.9 in the Vancouver Island region on the Puget Sound west of Seattle, Washington. While reported as far as New Mexico and Indiana perceptible shaking from this event was probably limited to an area about 200 km from the epicenter. NEIC reported intensity II-III in communities throughout British Columbia and northwestern Washington State. More intense shaking of intensity IV was reported in Washington at Friday Harbor, La Conner, Lopez Island, Lummi Island, Lynden, Point Roberts, Sumas, Forks, Sekiu, Olympia, Aberdeen, and in British Columbia at Sidney, Abbotsford, Aldergrove, Cowichan Valley, Cumberland, Duncan, Fort Langley, Lillooet, Lions Vay, North Cowichan, Sooke, Vancouver, Victoria, Walnut Grove and White Rock. No major damage or injuries were reported with this earthquake.

 

The Vancouver quake hit within an hour of local solar midnight and was probably promoted by high tidal stresses which maximize at this time. The last earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter with M>=4.8 occurred on June 10, 2001 with M 5.0. This was probably an aftershock of the M 6.8 earthquake near Olympia of February 28, 2001. " (December 30, 2015, February 21, 2025)

 

 

...  This continued elevated regional seismicity in the area of Washington and British Columbia of the past several days." (February 22, 2025)

 

These Earthquakes in Washington State are  located at the fourth node (90 degrees) from the M 7.4 in Vanuatu of December 17, 2024 and was likely promoted by energy from that source." (March 3, 2025)

 

Forecast 170377 had expected today's event in Washington was likely within  about 50 km around March 7, 2025.

 

O: 03MAR2025 13:02:38  48.6N  122.8W MB=4.1  ECAN of Bellingham, WA, felt  

O:  3MAR2025 13:02:37  48.6N  122.8W ML=4.5  EMSC   SAN JUAN ISLANDS REG, WASHINGT

P:  7MAR2025 170377    49.0N  123.0W 2.0-3.9 BAAAA  Washington state, U.S.     

 

A series of moderate earthquakes in western Canada accompanied the M 4.5 in Washington State today (see above). These occurred as an M 4.6 in the Northern Territories and in the Yukon Territory with M 4.1 and M 3.7. The event of M 4.1 was reported lightly felt in the Haines Junction area of Yukon Territory by Earthquakes Canada.

 

Forecasts 170413 and 170404 had expected these events within 50-150 km of their epicenters.

 

O:  3MAR2025 23:25:51  65.2N  139.1W ML=3.7  EMSC   NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY, CANA

O: 03MAR2025 23:25:51  65.2N  139.1W MB=3.7  ECAN of Dawson, YT   

P:  3MAR2025 170413    65.0N  139.0W 3.0-4.7 AAAAA  Northern Alaska            

 

This epicenter is located at the sixth node (60 degrees) from the Cayman Islands event of M 7.6 on February 8 and at the sixth node from the M 6.8 in Kyushu of January 13, 2025 and was probably promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 03MAR2025 10:01:34  59.8N  139.0W MB=4.1  ECAN of Haines Junction, YT, felt 

O:  3MAR2025 10:01:34  59.8N  139.0W ML=3.8  EMSC   SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA          

P:  4MAR2025 170404    60.3N  139.6W 3.2-5.2 AAAAA  Central Alaska             

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.6 in Southeastern Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southeastern Alaska in Yakutat.

 

This epicenter is located at the sixth node (60 degrees) from the Cayman Islands event of M 7.6 on February 8 and was probably promoted by energy from that source.

 

O:  4MAR2025 07:40:24  64.9N  129.1W MB=4.6  ECAN OF NORMAN WELLS, NT            

P:  4MAR2025 170413    65.0N  133.0W 2.5-4.0 AABAA  Yukon Territory, Canada    

P:  7MAR2025 170413    63.0N  130.0W 2.5-4.4 BBAAA  Yukon Territory, Canada    

 

 

MODERATE, PREDICTED EARTHQUAKE STRIKES WESTERN LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 2, 2025

 

 

A moderate earthquake of M 3.9 occurred today in the North Hollywood area of western Los Angeles, California. This occurred shortly after the Academy Awards show in Hollywood near local solar midnight and was well publicized on web channels. No major damage was reported with this earthquake. Light aftershocks, including an M 3.4 were felt with intensity up to IV in Southern California in Malibu, Agoura Hills, Westlake Village, Calabasas, Oak Park, Thousand Oaks, Newbury Park, Woodland Hills, Camarillo, Simi Valley, Northridge, Los Angeles and as far as 200 km from the epicenter in Ludlow and San Diego." (September 12, 2024)

 

The mainshock followed a series of lighter regional foreshocks over the past day. These were associated with the passage of Tropical Cyclone Garance through the antipodal area to greater Los Angeles beginning early on March 2. The first of these enhanced antipodal earthquakes in Southern California (due to antipodal focusing of energy from TC Garance) were located in the Santa Barbara Channel with M 2.8 and M 2.2. These were reported by NEIC and EMSC to have been felt lightly in Santa Barbara and in Goleta, California. As TC Garance continued to track to the southeast, the antipode moved to the northeast. As it did so, minor earthquakes occurred along the antipodal track - an M 1.6 in Central Los Angeles; and a series of events of M 2.5-2.8 near Bakersfield, Mammoth Lakes, eastern Los Angeles and the California-Nevada border (M 2.0-3.0). As online earthquake listing are continuously updated, this activity was visible in real-time among the various network websites (SCSN, NEIC, EMSC ...). This summary has been following this throughout and we thank our readers for accompanying us in this interesting real-time "proof of antipodal triggering concept" experiment over the past several days which, it is hoped, has been as interesting for you as for the writers of this summary.

 

An M 1.2 foreshock hit in Los Angeles about 14 minutes before the mainshock.

 

These foreshocks had been expected in forecasts 170316, 170319, 170323, 170277 and 170274 as regional events in early March.

 

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.2 in Baja-Southern California was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Baja-Southern California in San Diego.

The largest of these - of M 2.7 -  NNW of Westmorland, California was reported by NEIC to have been felt with intensity III in California at Chula Vista, Cardiff By the Sea, Encinitas, Escondido, Oceanside, San Diego, with II in Santa Monica, Imperial Beach, among others.

 

O: 02MAR2025 16:17:22  33.2N  115.7W ML=2.1  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 02MAR2025 16:26:55  33.2N  115.7W ML=2.4  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 02MAR2025 16:28:02  33.2N  115.7W ML=2.0  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

O:  2MAR2025 19:26:58  32.4N  115.5W ML=2.2  EMSC   BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO      

P:  4MAR2025 170316    32.4N  115.8W 2.5-4.6 AAAAA  So. California             

 

Light aftershocks, including an M 3.4 were felt with intensity up to IV in Southern California in Malibu, Agoura Hills, Westlake Village, Calabasas, Oak Park, Thousand Oaks, Newbury Park, Woodland Hills, Camarillo, Simi Valley, Northridge, Los Angeles and as far as 200 km from the epicenter in Ludlow and San Diego." (September 12, 2024)

 

 

These Earthquakes in Southern California are located at the fourth node (90 degrees) degrees from the M 7.4 in Vanuatu of December 17, 2024 and also at the fourth node from the M 6.8 in Kyushu of January 13, 2025 and was likely promoted by energy from that source.

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.9 in Southern California was felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of Southern California in Del Mar.

 

The last earthquake near today's epicenter with M>=4.5 was an M 4.6 on February 9, 2024.

 

O:  2MAR2025 11:08:32  33.9N  116.4W ML=2.3  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA          

P:  3MAR2025 170319    34.7N  116.4W 2.5-4.4 AAAAA  So. California             

 

O: 03MAR2025 00:55:57  36.2N  118.7W ML=2.5  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

O:  2MAR2025 19:00:33  35.0N  118.5W ML=2.1  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA           

P:  4MAR2025 170323    35.6N  118.4W 2.5-4.7 AAAAA  So. California             

 

O:  2MAR2025 23:08:08  37.4N  119.0W MD=2.6  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA           

P:  1MAR2025 170277    38.3N  119.3W 2.5-4.8 AAAAA  California/Nevada area     

P:  4MAR2025 170275    37.3N  118.3W 2.5-4.8 AAAAA  California/Nevada area     

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.8 in Mammoth Lakes, California was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Mammoth Lakes, California.

 

 

The original forecast for antipodal activity with TC Garance at this time  as published in previous issues of this summary beginning in late February and most recently noted:

 

"TROPICAL CYCLONE GARANCE (22S)                  

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

TC    GARANCE  2025-03-03  00:00 UT  34.2S   62.1E  050 kts  South Indian Ocean                

 

Tropical Cyclone Garance (22S) continued today in the area of south Indian Ocean with winds up to 50 kts.  It is expected to track to the east and south over the next several days. Some enhanced seismicity in the south Indian Ridge is possible in the sort term. As TC GARANCE passed over Reunion and Mauritius with winds up to 155 kph four people in La Reunion were killed. The storm left 953 homeless; 160,000 without electricity and 310,000 without water after blowing away roofs and cutting power and water supplies in Madagascar on February 28, 2025. The antipode at 34N 118W is near Los Angeles, California and is  a seismic zone. Some triggering could occur in this area. The track  of TC Garance, however takes it near 34S 62E around March 2-3, 2025 near the maximum of this storm. This could be an indication, that if Los Angeles (at the antipode 34N 118W) is to see a moderate to strong earthquake at this time, this would be the most likely timing. If such a scenario should occur current conditions favor a moderate quake near western Los Angeles near Los Osos and Santa Barbara or in the channel to the south. Residents of these areas should be aware of this moderate possibility. Therefore a seismic watch is in effect for southern California in the Los Angeles area for the first five days of March, 2025. On March 1, Garance began to weaken but remains on the original trajectory. This will probably lessen the seismic impact at the antipode. But stopping over the LA antipode could enhance prospects for a moderate earthquake (not large) in Southwestern California around March 2-4 so, the current seismic watch will continue for that area. A seismic watch indicates that conditions may be right for the triggering of a significant regional earthquake in the watch period. Updates will follow" (March 1-2, 2025)

 

Nearly 10,000 people responded to the "Did you feel it" section of NEIC's website. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum shaking IV in Los Angeles, North Hollywood, Beverly Hills, Whittier, Montrose, Glendale, Van Nuys, Sherman Oaks, Encino, Burbank, North Hollywood, Valley Village, Monterey Park, Upland, Mojave with lesser shaking in Goleta, Calexico, Lakeside, San Diego, Santa Maria, Mohave, Ventura, Long Beach Simi Valley, Los Osos, Santa Barbara among many others. EMSC reported it was felt and heard with moderate shaking in California at Burbank, North Hollywood, as an unusual quake in Sun Valley, Valley Village, as a big jolt in Studio City, Van Nuys among others. Felt as a minor jolt as far as Palmdale, California.

 

Most of the smaller regional foreshocks in the greater L.A. area occurred within about an hour of local solar noon and were likely promoted by tidal stresses associated with the new moon of February 28, 2024. The mainshock occurred near local solar midnight and could also have been tidally promoted. Readers may be reminded that for every 1.0 increase in magnitude the expended energy is about 30 time more. So an M 3.9 earthquake releases nearly 50 times as much energy as an M 2.8.

 

The last earthquake near today's epicenter with M>=4.5 was an M 4.6 on February 9, 2024. The last earthquake with M>=3.9 within about 50 km of today's epicenter in Los Angeles, California occurred as an M 4.4 on August 12, 2024 and just to the west of this range as an M 4.7 on September 12, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.7 in the region of Los Angeles, California. NEIC received nearly 20,000 felt reports from residents of Southern California. These included reports of intensity V in Malibu, Agoura Hills, Westlake Village, Thousand Oaks, and IV in Calabasas, Oak Park, Newbury Park, West Hills, Woodland Hills, Camarillo, Canoga Park, Simi Valley, Winnetka, Tarzamna, Santa Monica, Moorpark, Santa Monica, Encino, Reseda, Northridge, Los Angeles, Sherman Oaks, Van Nuys, Somis, Marina del Rey, Beverly Hills, Studio City, Valley Village, North Hollywood, Universal City, Hermosa Beach among others. Intensity III was felt as far as 150 km from the epicenter in places such as San Bernardino and Camp Pendleton, California with II shaking as far as 600 km from the epicenter in Arizona, Nevada, Oregon and Colorado among others. The last earthquake in the Los Angeles with M>=4.7 within about 100 km of today's M 4.7 epicenter occurred as an M 5.1 on August 20, 2023 and prior to that an M 5.1 on March 29, 2014 and M 4.7 on May 18, 2009, the last such event in the Simi Valley near Los Angeles.

 

Forecast 170321 had expected today's mainshock was likely within about 25 km of the epicenter around March 3, 2025.

 

O: 03MAR2025 05:59:05  34.0N  118.4W ML=1.2  ANSS   LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA

O: 01MAR2025 04:17:51  33.9N  118.0W ML=1.2  ANSS   LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA

O: 28FEB2025 08:39:33  33.6N  118.0W ML=1.6  ANSS   LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA

O: 28FEB2025 08:26:24  33.6N  118.0W ML=2.2  ANSS   LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA

O:  3MAR2025 06:13:45  34.2N  118.4W ML=3.9  ANSS   NORTH HOLLYWOOD CA           

P:  3MAR2025 170321    34.4N  118.6W 2.5-5.0 AAAAA  So. California             

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.0 south of Alaska. It was not reported felt in this remote area west of Vancouver, British Columbia. This is an unusual epicenter. The last earthquake within about 250 km of this event in the North Pacific with M>=5 occurred on May 14, 2001 with M 5.2 with an epicenter about 300 km northeast of today's event. This is the only regional earthquake in this area of M>=5.0 in at least 35 years.

 

O:  2MAR2025 14:18:39  52.5N  144.1W MB=5.0  EMSC   SOUTH OF ALASKA               

 

As TC Garance dissipates in the next day, near antipodal seismicity is expected to continue to the north of Los Angeles. An area of interest in this regard, is northwestern Washington State which has seen a series of moderate earthquakes in the past week and could see additional such activity in the next several days. Two light earthquakes of M 1.9 and 2.0 occurred in this area of Washington today. The larger of these of M 2.0 occurred near local solar noon and may have been promoted by tidal stresses. Recent events occurred in this area and were reported in this summary as:

 

 

"NEIC reported a light M 3.3 was felt in the region of Snoqualmie, Washington today. NEIC reported intensity III was felt in Snoqualmie, North Bend, Lynnwood, Gold Bar, Sultan, Washington and in Lake Cowichan, British Columbia, Canada and in Astoria, Oregon. Lesser shaking was felt in Washington at Bothell, Carnation, Duvall, Fall City, Issaquah, Redmond, Renton and Seattle among others. A foreshock today of M 2.8 in Washington State was reported felt with intensity II-III at Gold Bar, Bremerton, Issaquah, Seattle, Bremerton, Hansville, Port Orchard, Tacoma, Belfair, Hoodsport, Maple Valley, ?North Bend, Seattle and in Victoria British Columbia, Canada." (February 27, 2025)

 

The last earthquake of M>=3.0 prior to this was an M 3.4 on February 22, 2025 and an M 4.8 about 300 km northwest of this on February 21, 2025. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

 

"A moderate earthquake of M 4.8 shook the area of northeastern Washington State and Southeastern British Columbia east of Vancouver B.C today. NEIC reported maximum shaking of intensity V in Sechelt, British Columbia, Canada and IV in B.C. at Cwichan Valley, Duncan, Gibsons, Lake Cowichan, Lions Bay, Nanaimo, Powell River, Squamist and in Washing at Maple Falls, Vancouver, Ellensburg, Maple Fall and Greenbank. Intensity III was felt in Washington State at Arlington, Concrete, Eastsound, Everson, Friday Habor, Point Robers, Lynden, Port Angeles, Vancouver among others and in British Columbia, Canada at Abbotsford, Campbell River, Chemainus, Ladysmith, Parksville, Pemberton, Vancouver, Victoria, Walnut Grove, Whistler, White Rock among others with lesser shaking as far as Seattle, Everett, Bellingham, and as far as Rufus, Oregon.

This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter to occur since an M 4.9 on December 30, 2015. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The most widely felt earthquake of the day was the M 4.9 in the Vancouver Island region on the Puget Sound west of Seattle, Washington. While reported as far as New Mexico and Indiana perceptible shaking from this event was probably limited to an area about 200 km from the epicenter. NEIC reported intensity II-III in communities throughout British Columbia and northwestern Washington State. More intense shaking of intensity IV was reported in Washington at Friday Harbor, La Conner, Lopez Island, Lummi Island, Lynden, Point Roberts, Sumas, Forks, Sekiu, Olympia, Aberdeen, and in British Columbia at Sidney, Abbotsford, Aldergrove, Cowichan Valley, Cumberland, Duncan, Fort Langley, Lillooet, Lions Vay, North Cowichan, Sooke, Vancouver, Victoria, Walnut Grove and White Rock. No major damage or injuries were reported with this earthquake.

 

The Vancouver quake hit within an hour of local solar midnight and was probably promoted by high tidal stresses which maximize at this time. The last earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter with M>=4.8 occurred on June 10, 2001 with M 5.0. This was probably an aftershock of the M 6.8 earthquake near Olympia of February 28, 2001. " (December 30, 2015, February 21, 2025)

 

 

...  This continued elevated regional seismicity in the area of Washington and British Columbia of the past several days." (February 22, 2025)

 

 

These Earthquakes in Washington State are  located at the fourth node (90 degrees) degrees from the M 7.4 in Vanuatu of December 17, 2024 and was likely promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 170377 had expected this activity in Washington was likely around March 7 within about 50 km of these epicenters.

 

 

O:  2MAR2025 08:59:25  47.2N  121.5W ML=2.0  EMSC   WASHINGTON                   

P:  7MAR2025 170377    46.9N  122.0W 2.0-3.9 BAAAA  Washington state, U.S.     

 

O:  3MAR2025 01:33:10  47.6N  122.6W ML=1.9  EMSC   SEATTLE-TACOMA AREA, WASHINGTO

P:  7MAR2025 170377    46.9N  122.0W 2.0-3.9 BAAAA  Washington state, U.S.     

P:  7MAR2025 170377    49.0N  123.0W 2.0-3.9 BAAAA  Washington state, U.S.     

 

A series of earthquakes occurred in Ethiopia and Eritrea today. These were not immediately reported felt. This series began with an M  5.2 near local solar noon perhaps with an assist from tidal stresses. This represents a change in the recent seismicity in Ethiopia about 500 km to the southwest to a more conventional epicenter for the region.

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.3 in Tigray, Ethiopia was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Tigray, Ethiopia with V at Addigrat and III in Mek'ele.  conventional epicenter for the region.

 

Forecast 170233 had expected this change in seismicity was likely in early March 2025.

 

O: 03MAR2025 04:37:40  14.1N   40.0E mb=4.5  EMSC   ERITREA - ETHIOPIA REGION

O: 02MAR2025 08:14:58  14.2N   40.0E Mw=5.2  EMSC   ERITREA-ETHIOPIA BORDER REGION

O: 02MAR2025 20:38:47  14.2N   39.8E mb=4.1  EMSC   ERITREA-ETHIOPIA BORDER REGION

O:  2MAR2025 15:11:19  14.1N   39.9E MB=4.3  EMSC   ERITREA-ETHIOPIA BORDER REGION

P:  5MAR2025 170233    12.0N   41.0E 3.5-5.1 BBAAA  Ethiopia                   

 

Earthquakes of M 4.5 and 4.6 - the strongest to date of the M 5.9 on February 25 - continued the aftershock series of the M 5.9 north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic of late February, 2025. NEIC reported these were felt with intensity IV in Puerto Rico at Aguada and San Juan and II-III in Dominican Republic at Santo Domingo and Otra Banda, La Altagracia. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"A strong earthquake north of Puerto Rico today of M 5.9-6.0 was widely felt in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity V in Aibonito and Orocovis, Puerto Rico; IV in Adjuntas, Aguadilla, Anasco, Lares, Las Marias, Mayaguez, San German, Mercedita, Ponce, Coto Laurel, Juana Diaz, San Juan, and in the Dominican Republic at Boca de Yuma and La Romana with lesser shaking in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic within about 250 km of the epicenter. The mainshock was preceded by  M 3.5, 2.5 and 2.7 foreshocks which were felt with intensity III in Rio Grande, Puerto Rico. The last earthquake north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic within about

200 km of today's epicenter with M>=5.9 occurred as an M 6.0  on September 24, 2019. The last - and only earthquake of M>5.9 in the area in the past 25 years was an M 6.4 on January 13, 2014." (February 25, 2025)

 

These Earthquakes in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic are located at the seventh node (52 degrees) degrees from the M 7.1 off northern California of December 5, 2024 and also at the fourth node from the M 6.8 in Kyushu of January 13, 2025 and was likely promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 170249 had expected moderate aftershock activity was likely in this area with

magnitude up M 5.0 around March 3, 2025.

 

O: 02MAR2025 07:35:13  19.2N   68.1W ML=3.2  EMSC   DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION

O: 02MAR2025 13:06:52  19.2N   68.0W ML=3.7  EMSC   DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION

O: 02MAR2025 18:54:20  19.3N   67.9W MD=3.9  EMSC   DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION

O: 02MAR2025 15:04:52  19.4N   67.9W MD=3.8  EMSC   DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION

O: 02MAR2025 16:10:35  19.6N   68.0W MD=3.8  EMSC   DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION

O:  2MAR2025 12:40:21  19.1N   67.9W ML=4.5  EMSC   DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION    

P:  3MAR2025 170249    19.0N   68.0W 3.4-5.0 AAAAA  Puerto Rico                

 

An M 4.8 also occurred today in the Martinique region of the Windward Islands, eastern Caribbean.  NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.8 in Martinique was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Martinique with III in Fort-de-France and Le Lamentin and La Trinite, Martinique and in Cap Estate, Saint Lucia and II in Saint-Pierre, Martinique. EMSC reported moderate shaking in Martinique at La Trinite, Le Robert, Le Lorrain, Le Marigot, Le Grancois, Le Lamentin, Basse-Pointe, Saint-Esprit, Ducos, For-de France, Le Morne-Rouge, Riviere-Salee, Schoelcher, Sainte-Anne, Les Trois-Ilets, and in Dominica on Woeman Ridge and Calibishie. Also felt lightly in Grande Riviere, Castries, Saint Lucia, i Guadeope at Saint-Francois, and Bair-Mahault. The last earthquake in the Martinique area within about 200 km of today's epicenter with M>=4.8 was an M 5.1 on April 16, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

“Moderate earthquakes of M 5.1 and M 5.2 occurred today in the Leeward Islands, eastern Caribbean. The M 5.1 was felt in the region of Guadeloupe with intensity II-III in Grand-Bourg Marie-Galante, and Lamentin and Petit-Borg, Basse-Terre and in Calibishie, Saint Andrew Dominica and English Harbour, Saint Paul Antigua and Barbuda. This event was likely triggered by antipodal energy from Tropical Cyclone Ilsa - the strongest cyclone to hit Australia in the past eight years (equivalent to a category 5 hurricane) - reaching wind gusts up to 289 kph (180 mph). This is apparently a record for winds in a tropical cyclone in Australia but winds may have been higher as the weather bureau instruments stopped working at this wind speed. ...

 

 TC Ilsa passed over the exact antipode of this earthquake (in Guadeloupe)

on April 12, 2023 as documented at the time in this summary

 

"TC    ILSA     2023-04-12  00:00 UT  16.0S  119.5E  110 kts  South of Timor      

 

TC Ilsa (18S) continued today in the area south of the Timor, Indonesia with winds up to 110 kts.  It is expected to track along the northern coast of Australia to the southwest over the next three days and may enhance regional seismicity in the area of central Indonesia. The antipode of this cyclone is in the North Atlantic west of the Windward Islands. The current projected path takes the cyclone to a position antipodal to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico around April 10-11 with winds up to 170 kts. It is likely that this will enhancement seismicity in the northeastern Caribbean at this time." (April 12, 2023, April 16, 2023)

 

The last earthquake in the Guadeloupe area of M>=5.1 was an M 5.8 on January 20, 2023 and prior to that an M 5.1 on January 8, 2020." (April 16, 2023)

 

Forecast 170236 had expected today's event within about 200 km was likely around March 3, 2025.

 

O:  3MAR2025 00:01:29  15.0N   60.6W MB=4.8  EMSC   MARTINIQUE REGION, WINDWARD IS

P:  3MAR2025 170236    17.0N   60.0W 3.0-5.4 ABAAA  Leeward Islands            

 

 

MODERATE EARTHQUAKES HIT SOLOMON ISLANDS

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 22, 2025

 

The strongest earthquakes in the world today were a series of events of M 5.0-5.6 in the Solomon Islands. The earthquake of M 5.6 is the strongest in the Solomon Islands within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 6.4 on September 1, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"Today's earthquake in Papua New Guinea with M 6.4 is the strongest within  about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 7.9 on January 22, 2017 and is  probably an long-term, regional aftershock of that event. This summary noted the event in 2017 at the time as:

 

 

"A great earthquake with preliminary magnitude M 8.0 occurred in the northern

Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea early on January 22. NEIC reported it was

felt with intensity VIII in Arawa, North Solomons; VII in Kokopo, East New Britain and II-IV in Namatanai, New Ireland, Papua New Guinea and II in Honiara, Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands. SWPC did not issue a tsunami warning despite the large magnitude due to the depth near 167 km. The immediate trigger for this event may have been a C1.8 flare (#5300) (the fourth largest in the past 1.5 months) which reached maximum intensity while this epicenter was within minutes of local solar midnight, a prime time for solar flare effects to trigger seismicity. Two other solar flares of higher class also occurred today (C6.1 and C9.3). The C9.3 flare which maximized at 0726 UT may have helped trigger an M 4.4 quake in El Salvador near the maximum output of the flare while the flare of C6.1  may have helped trigger several aftershocks in Central Italy including an M 3.5 within minutes of local solar noon and the occurrence of this flare. The flare of C9.3 is the strongest solar flare in nearly two months - since an M1.0 on November 29, 2016.

 

The M 8.0 is the strongest of the recent earthquakes to hit the southwestern Pacific area. These began with events of M 7.8-7.9 in New Zealand, Fiji, Solomon Islands, New Britain, and the Celebes of Indonesia. Much of the energy from these events is focused at 90 degrees in California and at 103 degrees in  the central U.S. and Mexico where further enhanced seismicity is expected after today's event. In the east, the most likely far-field seismicity promoted from New Britain has been occurring in Iran, Colorado, Madagascar, Nunavut, Canada, New Mexico, Central Mexico following the earlier M 7.8 foreshock." (January 22, 2017, September 1, 2024)

 

 

 

The mainshock of M 5.6 occurred within minutes of local solar noon and was probably promoted by tidal and/or geomagnetic effects which maximize near this hour.

 

Forecast 169955 had expected today's activity in the Solomon Islands in this

area was likely around February 22, 2025.

 

 

O: 23FEB2025 04:17:40   7.3S  155.9E mb=5.4  EMSC   SOLOMON ISLANDS

O: 22FEB2025 22:21:01   7.4S  156.0E Mw=5.3  EMSC   SOLOMON ISLANDS

O: 23FEB2025 01:46:31   7.4S  155.8E mb=4.9  EMSC   SOLOMON ISLANDS

O: 22FEB2025 20:39:19   7.8S  156.2E mb=4.8  EMSC   SOLOMON ISLANDS

O: 23FEB2025 01:31:54   7.5S  155.9E MW=5.6  ANSS   GIZO SOLOMON ISLANDS         

P: 22FEB2025 169955     6.0S  155.0E 4.0-5.4 BAAAA  Solomon Islands            

 

NEIC reported an M 3.4 hit the region of Lea Hill, Washington State today. It was reported felt with intensity up to IV in Washington at Anacrotes, Roy; III in Auburn, Federal Way, Fall City, Kent, Kirkland, Maple Valley, Renton, Snoqualmie, Sammamish, Seattle, Everson, Monroe, Buckley, Dupont, Eatonville, Mineral, Orting, Port Orchard, Puyallup, Bonney Lake, Tacoma, Lakewood, Olympia, and Vancouver Gritish Columbia, Canada. Lesser shaking was felt throughout northern Washington and British Columbia as far as about 300 km from the epicenter. This is the strongest earthquake in the Seattle-Tacoma area of Washington State since an M 3.7 on February 14, 2025 and an M 3.5 on January 20, 2025. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"An M 3.9 was also felt in northern Washington State and British Columbia, Canada today. NEIC reported this earthquake of M 3.7 in British  Columbia, Canada was felt with moderate intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of British  Columbia, Canada in Sidney, Chemainus, Duncan, Sooke, Victoria and in Washington State at Olympia (IV), Anacortes, Eastsound, Lopez Island, Point Roberts, Chimacum, Port Townsend and II in Lynnwood, Everett, Coupville, Custer, Friday Harbor, Oak Harbor, Camano Island, Stanwood, Port Angeles, Port Ludlow, Sequim, Vancouver as well as in British Columbia at Cowichan Valley, Nanaimo, Parksville, Sechelt, Walnut Grove and White Rock. EMSC reported shaking for a short period in Victoria, New Songhees, Langford, Central Saanich, North Saanich, and Delta, B.C., Canada an in Washington State in Stanwood, and Port Angeles. Earthquakes of M 3.9-4.0 have most recently occurred within about 200 km of this epicenter on September 26, 2024 and December 24, 2023 but the last event of significantly larger magnitude was an M 4.9 on December 30, 2015. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The most widely felt earthquake of the day was the M 4.9 in the Vancouver Island region on the Puget Sound west of Seattle, Washington. While reported as far as New Mexico and Indiana perceptible shaking from this event was probably limited to an area about 200 km from the epicenter. NEIC reported intensity II-III in communities throughout British Columbia and northwestern Washington State. More intense shaking of intensity IV was reported in Washington at Friday Harbor, La Conner, Lopez Island, Lummi Island, Lynden, Point Roberts, Sumas, Forks, Sekiu, Olympia, Aberdeen, and in British Columbia at Sidney, Abbotsford, Aldergrove, Cowichan Valley, Cumberland, Duncan, Fort Langley, Lillooet, Lions Vay, North Cowichan, Sooke, Vancouver, Victoria, Walnut Grove and White Rock. No major damage or injuries were reported with this earthquake.

 

The Vancouver quake hit within an hour of local solar midnight and was probably promoted by high tidal stresses which maximize at this time. The last earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter with M>=4.8 occurred on June 10, 2001 with M 5.0. This was probably an aftershock of the M 6.8 earthquake near Olympia of February 28, 2001." (December 30, 2015, February 14, 2025)

 

 

Forecast 170098 had expected today's event within about 50 km was likely around February 25. This continued elevated regional seismicity in the area of Washington and British Columbia of the past several days.

 

O: 22FEB2025 11:45:29  47.3N  122.1W ML=3.4  EMSC   SEATTLE-TACOMA AREA, WASHINGTO

P: 25FEB2025 170098    46.9N  122.0W 2.0-4.0 BAAAA  Washington state, U.S.     

 

The series in the Salinas area of central California continued today. The largest of these was an M 3.9 which NEIC reported was felt with intensity IV in California at Paicines and III in Salinas, Gonzales, Marina, Seaside, Sunnyvale, Hayward, Aptos, Hollister, San Juan Bautista, Santa Crus with III in Fresno, Carmel, Montery, Soledad, Felton, Scotts Valley and Watsonville.

 

"NEIC reported earthquakes up to M 3.3 in Central California were felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central California with intensity II-III in Salinas, Gonzales, Marina, Monterey and II in Fresno and Carmel, California.  Larger earthquakes in this slipping section of the San Andreas often come in series of events with M3-4 but seldom much larger. This can be expected with today's activity." (February 22, 2025)

 

The last earthquake in this area of Central California with M>=3.9 occurred on April 4, 2023 with M 4.4. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.4-4.5 in Central California. NEIC reported this event was felt with maximum intensity V in Hollister and III in San Juan Bautista, Salinas, Aromas, Gonzales, Gilroy, among others. It occurred about 5 minutes after the M 6.6 in Panama and may be related to regional stresses related to that event. The last earthquake within about 100 km of this epicenter in Central California of M>=4.5 was an M 5.1 about 75 km northwest of today's epicenter on October 25, 2022. The last event within about 50 km of this epicenter of M>=4.5 occurred on October 15, 2019 with M 4.7 and M 4.6 on November 13, 2017." (April 4, 2023).

 

 

Forecast 170012 had expected today's activity in central California was likely around February 25, 2025.

 

O: 22FEB2025 06:45:45  36.7N  121.4W MD=2.8  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

O: 22FEB2025 09:16:01  36.7N  121.3W MD=2.6  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

O: 22FEB2025 09:25:26  36.7N  121.3W ML=3.0  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

O: 22FEB2025 10:31:25  36.7N  121.3W Mw=3.9  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

O: 22FEB2025 10:41:05  36.7N  121.4W MD=2.5  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

O: 22FEB2025 12:20:04  36.7N  121.4W MD=2.6  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

O: 22FEB2025 16:46:36  36.7N  121.4W MD=2.8  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

O: 22FEB2025 16:47:16  36.7N  121.3W ML=3.0  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

O: 22FEB2025 16:51:48  36.7N  121.4W MD=2.3  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

O: 22FEB2025 16:56:49  36.7N  121.4W ML=2.4  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

O: 22FEB2025 06:40:11  36.7N  121.4W ML=3.2  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA           

P: 25FEB2025 170012    36.9N  121.7W 2.5-4.6 BAAAA  Central California         

 

 

 

MODERATE QUAKE SHAKES WASHINGTON STATE AND BRITISH COLUMBIA

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 21, 2025

 

 

A moderate earthquake of M 4.8 shook the area of northeastern Washington State and Southeastern British Columbia east of Vancouver B.C today. NEIC reported maximum shaking of intensity V in Sechelt, British Columbia, Canada and IV in B.C. at Cwichan Valley, Duncan, Gibsons, Lake Cowichan, Lions Bay, Nanaimo, Powell River, Squamist and in Washing at Maple Falls, Vancouver, Ellensburg, Maple Fall and Greenbank. Intensity III was felt in Washington State at Arlington, Concrete, Eastsound, Everson, Friday Habor, Point Robers, Lynden, Port Angeles, Vancouver among others and in British Columbia, Canada at Abbotsford, Campbell River, Chemainus, Ladysmith, Parksville, Pemberton, Vancouver, Victoria, Walnut Grove, Whistler, White Rock among others with lesser shaking as far as Seattle, Everett, Bellingham, and as far as Rufus, Oregon. This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter to occur since an M 4.9 on December 30, 2015. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The most widely felt earthquake of the day was the M 4.9 in the Vancouver Island region on the Puget Sound west of Seattle, Washington. While reported as far as New Mexico and Indiana perceptible shaking from this event was probably limited to an area about 200 km from the epicenter. NEIC reported intensity II-III in communities throughout British Columbia and northwestern Washington State. More intense shaking of intensity IV was reported in Washington at Friday Harbor, La Conner, Lopez Island, Lummi Island, Lynden, Point Roberts, Sumas, Forks, Sekiu, Olympia, Aberdeen, and in British Columbia at Sidney, Abbotsford, Aldergrove, Cowichan Valley, Cumberland, Duncan, Fort Langley, Lillooet, Lions Vay, North Cowichan, Sooke, Vancouver, Victoria, Walnut Grove and White Rock. No major damage or injuries were reported with this earthquake.

 

The Vancouver quake hit within an hour of local solar midnight and was probably promoted by high tidal stresses which maximize at this time. The last earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter with M>=4.8 occurred on June 10, 2001 with M 5.0. This was probably an aftershock of the M 6.8 earthquake near Olympia of February 28, 2001. " (December 30, 2015)

 

Forecasts 169822 and 170098 had expected this activity was likely in Washington  State around February 18-22 within about 25 km of this epicenter.

 

O: 21FEB2025 21:26:33  49.7N  123.6W MB=4.7  ECAN OF SQUAMISH, BC, FELT  

O: 21FEB2025 21:26:33  49.6N  123.5W MW=4.8  EMSC   BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA     

P: 22FEB2025 170098    48.9N  123.1W 2.0-3.9 AAAAA  Washington state, U.S.     

P: 18FEB2025 169822    49.0N  123.0W 2.0-4.1 BAAAA  Washington state, U.S.     

 

 

NEIC reported earthquakes up to M 3.3 in Central California were felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central California with intensity II-III in Salinas, Gonzales, Marina, Monterey and II in Fresno and Carmel, California.  Larger earthquakes in this slipping section of the San Andreas often come in series of events with M3-4 but seldom much larger. This can be expected with today's activity.

 

Forecast 170012 had expected this activity within about 50 km was likely around February 23, 2025.

 

O: 22FEB2025 05:21:37  36.7N  121.3W ML=3.3  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

O: 22FEB2025 06:40:11  36.7N  121.3W ML=3.3  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

O: 22FEB2025 06:45:45  36.7N  121.4W MD=2.8  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

O: 22FEB2025 05:18:40  36.7N  121.4W MD=2.2  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA            

P: 23FEB2025 170012    36.2N  121.8W 2.5-4.6 AAAAA  Central California         

 

A series of light earthquakes also occurred today in the northern Baja California area. These events of M 3.0-4.0 are a swarm as occasionally occurs in this area - often with enhanced geomagnetic activity.

 

NEIC reported earthquakes of M 3.0 and M 3.9 in Baja California were felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Baja California, Mexico at Tijuana.

 

Forecast 170037 had expected this activity around February 25, 2025.

 

 

O: 21FEB2025 10:52:59  31.5N  114.6W ML=3.0  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 21FEB2025 09:45:43  31.6N  114.5W ML=3.6  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 21FEB2025 10:40:30  31.6N  114.6W ML=3.7  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 21FEB2025 10:46:53  31.6N  114.6W ML=3.3  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 21FEB2025 11:36:29  31.6N  114.5W ML=3.6  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 21FEB2025 11:58:57  31.6N  114.5W ML=3.5  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 21FEB2025 15:55:12  31.6N  114.5W ML=2.9  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 21FEB2025 22:42:26  31.6N  114.5W ML=3.3  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 21FEB2025 10:29:56  31.7N  114.5W ML=3.1  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 21FEB2025 10:42:50  31.7N  114.5W ML=3.9  EMSC   SONORA, MEXICO

O: 21FEB2025 10:38:44  31.5N  114.5W ML=3.6  EMSC   GULF OF CALIFORNIA           

P: 25FEB2025 170037    30.7N  114.0W 2.0-4.1 BAAAA  SW U.S.A                   

 

A moderate earthquake of M 3.9 occurred today in the St. Martin Region, Leeward Islands in the eastern Caribbean. It was not reported felt. This epicenter is exactly antipodal to the landfall position of TC ZELIA in northern Australia several days ago and was probably promoted by energy from that source as reported at the time.

 

"Tropical Cyclone Zelia (18S) made landfall today in the area of the south Indian Ocean north of western Australia with winds up to 140 kts.   The antipode at 19N  63W is in the northern Caribbean near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.  Antipodal focusing of energy from this storm could help promote a moderate to strong earthquake in that area in the next couple of days. A moderate earthquake near Puerto Rico seems likely in the next week.." (February 16, 2025)

 

This is not a typical epicenter for the area. The last such event of significantly larger magnitude within about 150 km of this epicenter was an M 4.9 on November 20, 2023.

 

Forecast 169972 had expected today's event within this area was likely around

February 23, 2025.

 

O: 21FEB2025 14:25:30  17.9N   62.5W ML=3.9  EMSC   ST. MARTIN REGION, LEEWARD ISL

P: 23FEB2025 169972    17.0N   62.0W 3.0-5.1 AAAAA  Leeward Islands            

 

MODERATE QUAKES IN TONGA; ALBERTA, CANADA

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 20, 2025

 

 

The strongest earthquake of the day was an M 5.6 in Tonga. NEIC reported it was felt in American Samoa with intensity up to III in Apia and Niusuatia and II in Vaigalu and Neiafu Vava'u, Tonga. The area of Tonga is generally active but has been in a seismic lull over the past  several months. A tropical Cyclone is currently forming near this epicenter and tracking to the south. This cyclone (TC RAE) may have helped promoted today's earthquake northern Tonga and Samoa as noted in this summary as:

 

"Tropical Cyclone Rae (19P) formed today in the area of south of New Guinea with winds up to 80 kts.  It is expected to track to the  south over the next several days. Some enhanced seismicity in the areas of Tonga and Fiji is possible in the short term. The antipode at 19N  1E is not an active seismic zone and little enhancement of seismicity in this region is likely as this storm proceeds." (February 22, 2025)

 

The last earthquake at shallow depth within about 200 km of today's epicenter of equal or larger magnitude was an M 5.8 on June 18, 2024.

 

Forecast 169879 had expected today's event within about 100 km was likely around February 17, 2025.

 

O: 20FEB2025 10:31:20  15.3S  173.9W MW=5.6  EMSC   TONGA                        

P: 17FEB2025 169879    16.0S  173.0W 4.0-5.4 BAAAA  Tonga Islands              

 

A moderately large M 5.4 also occurred today in the West Chile Rise. It was not reported felt in this remote area. This is the strongest earthquake on the West Chile Rise within about 250 km of today's epicenter since an M 5.5 on March 8, 2018. A larger event of M 5.8 hit in the area on November 10, 2017. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The earthquake in the West Chile Rise of M 5.7-5.8 was not felt in that remote area. It is the strongest earthquake within about 250 km of that epicenter in at least 25 years. Earthquakes of M 5.7 were recorded on December 25, 2015; June 10, 2009 and December 25, 1990, but none larger." (November 10, 2017)

 

This epicenter is at the sixth node (60 degrees) from the M 7.6 in the Cayman Islands of February 8, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 169908 had expected today's event in this area on the Chile Rise was likely in mid-February.

 

 

O: 20FEB2025 11:30:53  42.9S   82.7W MW=5.4  EMSC   WEST CHILE RISE              

P: 11FEB2025 169908    43.0S   83.0W 4.0-5.5 CAAAA  Chile Rise                 

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.9 in the Rat Islands, Alaska. It was not reported felt in this remote area. The last earthquake of M>=4.9 within about 200 km of today's epicenter was recorded in the Rat Islands as an M 4.9 on July 16, 2024. The last of significantly larger magnitudewas an M 5.8 on March 30, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.8 in the Rat Islands, Aleutians, Alaska. It was not reported felt in this remote area. This earthquake was not reported felt in this epicentral area. The last earthquake of equal or larger magnitude in the Rat Islands was an M 6.3 on December 14, 2022. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada or the world today was an M 6.3 in the Rat Islands, Aleutians, Alaska. It was not reported felt in this remote region. A smaller earthquake of M 5.3 hit the Rat Islands on December 10, 2022.

At the time this summary noted:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.3 in the Rat Islands, Aleutians, Alaska. It was not reported felt in this remote epicentral area. The last earthquake with M>=5.3 in the Rat Islands was an M 6.3 half a year ago on June 4, 2022. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

 

"The event of M 6.3 in the Rat Islands was not reported felt in this remote area. This is the strongest earthquake in the Rat Islands since an M 6.4 on April 2, 2019. These appear to be aftershocks of the M 7.9 that hit about 50 km southeast of today's epicenter on June 23, 2014. Today's event occurred near local solar noon and was likely promoted by high tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. It may also have been promoted by the recent geomagnetic storm." (June 5, 2022, March 30, 2024)

 

Forecast 169843 had expected today's event within about 50 km of this epicenter was likely in mid-February.

 

O: 21FEB2025 07:07:09  51.5N  178.2E ML=4.9  EMSC   RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

P: 17FEB2025 169843    51.0N  178.0E 4.0-5.8 BAAAA  Rat Islands                

 

A moderate earthquake also occurred today as an M 4.7 near Grande Cache, Alberta, Canada. NEIC reported it was felt in Alberta, Canada with intensity IV in Fairview, Grande Cache, Sexsmith, II in Fox Creek, Grande Prarie, Spirit River, and in British Columbia at Wembley, Fort Saint John, Prince George, and Tumbler with lesser shaking at Drayton Valley, Hinton, Alberta and in British Columbia at Dawaon and Quesnel. This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 5.0 to the northeast on March 16, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

 

"The strongest earthquakes in the U.S. or Canada today occurred as an M 4.5, 4.8 and 5.1 in Alberta, Canada. These were reported by NEIC with intensity V in Alberta in Grimshaw and IV in Peace River with II-III shaking in Falher, High Prairie, Fairview, Valleyview, Spirit River, Slave Lake, Fox Creek, Grand Prairie, Barrhead and Athabasca. These events are apparently aftershocks of an M 5.3 which hit the same epicenter on November 30, 2022. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

"The largest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.3 in Alberta, Canada. The mainshock was felt widely in Alberta with maximum intensity IV in Peace River, Falher, High Prairie, Manning, Fairview, and III in Grimshaw, Valleyview, Slave Lake, Spirit River and Sexsmith. It was followed by an aftershock of M 4.5 which was reported felt with intensity IV in Alberta at Slave Lake, Whitecourt and II-III in Peace River, High Prairie, Fairview, Grande Prairie, Athabasca, High Leven and Wood Buffalo and in Dawson Creek, British Columbia. Foreshocks of M 4.6 and 4.9 to the M 5.3 was felt in the same area as the mainshock with maximum intensity IV in Alberta at Peace River, High Prairie, Spirit River, Sexsmith, Slave Lake and in Dawson, BC.  This activity is a continuation of events which hit the area on November 22-24, 2022. That included an M 4.5 which previous to the M 5.3 today was the largest earthquake in the area in more than 35 years as noted in this summary at the time:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.5 in Alberta,

Canada. This event occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and was probably promoted by strong tidal stresses with today's new moon. These maximize near local sola midnight. The mainshock was followed by an M 3.8 aftershock near Reno, Alberta. This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter in Alberta, Canada in at least 35 years. Smaller quakes hit about 200 km to the south of this as an M 4.2 on January 12, 2016 and an M 4.0 on June 13, 2015." (November 30, 2022, March 16, 2023))

 

Forecast 169828 had expected this event was likely with moderate magnitude

within about 200 of this epicenter around February 17, 2025.

 

O: 20FEB2025 16:40:10  54.3N  118.6W MB=3.5  ECAN  ALBERTA     

O: 20FEB2025 16:17:58  54.4N  118.5W MB=2.4  ECAN  ALBERTA    

O: 20FEB2025 15:58:09  54.3N  118.6W MB=2.3  ECAN  ALBERTA    

O: 20FEB2025 15:41:05  54.3N  118.6W MB=4.6  ECAN  ALBERTA   

O: 20FEB2025 15:41:04  54.4N  118.4W MB=4.7  EMSC   ALBERTA, CANADA              

P: 17FEB2025 169828    56.0N  120.0W 2.0-4.3 BBAAA  Alberta                    

 

 

 

MODERATE EARTHQUAKE IN ALASKA PENINSULA

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 19, 2025

 

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.7 in the Alaska Peninsula. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to IV in Alaska at Perryville, Sand Point; III in Chignik and Chignik Lagoon and King Cove and II as far away as Anchorage. This continues a series of moderate earthquake in this region which began after the M 7.6 in the Cayman Islands of February 8, 2025. These are located near the fifth node (72 degrees) from the Cayman Islands and may have been promoted by energy from that source. The last earthquake of M>=4.7 within about 150 km of this epicenter in the Alaska Peninsula was recorded on February 5, 2025 with M 4.7. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest unfelt earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.9

in the area of the Alaska Peninsula. This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter in the Alaska Peninsula since an M 5.1 on August 26, 2024 - an aftershock of an M 5.6 on August 1, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world (and in the U.S. or Canada) today was an M 5.6 in the Alaska Peninsula near Unimak Island, Alaska. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to IV at Sand Point, Alaska. The last earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter in Alaska with M>=5.6 was an M 5.6 one year ago on August 3, 2023 - an aftershock of an M 7.2 on July 16, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world, the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.6 in the Unimak Island area of Alaska. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Sand Point, King Cove and II-III in False Pass, Chignik Lagoon, Alaska. This is the strongest aftershock to date of the M 7.2-7.4 of July 16, 2023 in the Alaska Peninsula about 50 km east of today's epicenter. It is the second largest earthquake in this area since an M 6.1 on July 28 and July 29, 2020. In the past

15 years many of the strongest earthquakes in this region have occurred in mid- to late-July and early August, perhaps indicating a seasonal triggering component. All events in the region with M>=6 since 2008 have occurred in late July including an M 6.1 on July 16, 2011; an M 6.0 on July 19, 2018; an M 6.1 on July 28, 2020 and an M 7.2 on July 16, 2023." (August 3, 2023, August 1, 2024, February 5, 2025)

 

 

Forecast 169826 had expected today's event in the Alaska Peninsula was likely

within about 100 km around February 16, 2025.

 

O: 19FEB2025 07:09:48  55.9N  159.5W ML=4.7  EMSC   ALASKA PENINSULA             

P: 16FEB2025 169826    54.8N  158.7W 3.5-4.9 BBAAA  Alaska Peninsula           

 

The largest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.3  off the coast of Northern Sumatra today. BMG did not immediately make felt information available for this earthquake. The last earthquake of M>=5.3 within about 200 km of this epicenter occurred on October 13, 2024 with M 5.4. The last of stronger magnitude was an M 6.2 on September 23, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

 

"An earthquake of M 6.2 was also widely felt in the area of Northern Sumatra and Malaysia today. NEIC reported intensity II-III in Banda Aceh, Indonesia, in Malaysia at Georgetown Pulau, Butterworth, Perai, and in Thailand at Phuket and Kathu. BMG reported this earthquake with M 6.4 at 3.8N 96E. They reported maximum intensity IV in Aceh Selatan and Nagan Raya, Meulaboh, III in  Aceh Besar, Banda Aceh, Takengon, Bener Meriah, Simeulue and II in Pidie, Idi, Bireun, Aceh Tamiang, and Lansa. A foreshock about 100 km north of the M 6.4 occurred about half an hour prior to the mainshock. BMG reported it was felt with intensity IV in Takengon, Bener Meriah, and III in Idi, Reyeuk-Aceh, Timur and Aceh Barat Daya. While an M 5.9 occurred about 100 km west of this epicenter on March 5, 2022, the last earthquake within about 250 km of this epicenter with M>=6.2 per NEIC data was an 6.2 about 200 km southeast of today's epicenter on January 7, 2020 and an M 6.5 about 200 km north of this on December 6, 2016. The last definitely within the 200 km radius zone was an M 6.4 on July 25, 2012. This followed a major event of M 8.6 about 300 km southwest of today's epicenter on April 11, 2012." (September 23, 2022)

 

Forecast 169635 had expected today's event within about 25 km was likely around

mid-February.

 

O: 20FEB2025 03:19:40   5.0N   94.8E MB=5.3  EMSC   NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA  

P: 12FEB2025 169635     5.0N   95.0E 4.0-5.5 CAAAA  Nicobar Islands            

P: 18FEB2025 169635     3.0N   95.0E 4.0-5.6 ABAAA  Nicobar Islands            

 

A moderate C-class solar flare occurred today with the following parameters

from SWPC:

 

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

4840       2323   2345      2359   C8.1      (February 19, 2025)   1.2E-02  

South of Panama M 4.0 23:17 UT

Ceram Sea M 4.0 23:25 UT

Honshu M 4.3 23:25 UT

Honshu M 4.8 00:56 UT

 

Several earthquake were closely associated with this flare including an M 4.0 south of Panama; an M 4.0 in the Ceram Sea, Indonesia and an M 4.3 in Honshu, Japan. SFE from this flare may have helped trigger these events.

 

 

 

SIGNIFICANT M 4.7 EARTHQUAKE IN WESTERN TEXAS

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 18, 2025

 

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.7 in western Texas. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to IV in Texas at El Paso; III in Alpine, and II in Fort Davis, Dell City, and in Las Cruces, New Mexico.

EMSC reported strong shaking in Carlsbad, New Mexico with weak intensity at Roswell, New Mexico and Juarez, Mexico. This follows an M 5.0 in the same general region of February 15. This summary had predicted today's earthquake precisely to occur at this epicenter on February 18, 2025. In the previous issue of this summary it had been addressed as:

 

"Western Texas is now at the antipode of TC Taliah. To remind readers, this summary noted this and issued the following two days ago:

 

"Tropical Cyclone Taliah (14S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean south of Sumatra with winds up to 50 kts.  It is expected to track to the west and south over the next several days.  The antipode at 29N 102W is near an active seismic site in western  Texas. It is possible that this area of Texas will see enhanced seismicity while Taliah is active." (February 16-17, 2025)

 

and

 

"With the arrival of TC Taliah at the antipode to this active area of west Texas tomorrow this area could see additional moderate seismicity in the next several days especially likely around February 18 when this area is exactly antipodal to TC Taliah. TC Taliah will then move to a position under southern Colordo and northern New Mexico (around February 29-20) and then speed to the west along the latitude antipodal to 34-35 degrees north. If it does not dissipate significantly in the next several days (which is likely) remnants may reach a position antipodal to Los Angeles around February 22 and could trigger some minor regional seismicity in that area then." (February 15, 2025)

 

Location of TC Taliah when the earthquake in Texas occurred is given from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center as:

 

 

"TROPICAL CYCLONE TALIAH (14S)                   

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

TC    TALIAH   2025-02-18  21:00 UT  31.1S   75.9E  050 kts  South Indian Ocean

 

Tropical Cyclone Taliah (14S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean south of Sumatra with winds up to 50 kts.  It is expected to track to the west over the next several days.  The antipode at 31N 104W is near an active seismic site in western  Texas. It is possible that this area of Texas will see enhanced seismicity while Taliah is active." (February 18-19, 2025)

 

Current parameters for the the M 4.7 earthquake are listed as:

 

O: 18FEB2025 12:16:28 31.7N 104.5W ML=4.7  EMSC   Western Texas         

 

Readers can check this for antipodality.

 

An M 3.5 foreshock occurred several hours earlier and was felt with intensity II-III in New Mexico at Roswell and Carlsbad.  The mainshock of M 4.7 occurred in association with solar flare 4680 of C1.7 class. Data on this solar flare from SWPC follow:

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

4680       1200   1209      1215   C1.7      (February 18, 2025)   1.4E-03  

Western Texas M 4.7 12:16 UT

New Ireland M 4.5 12:13 UT

 

Forecast 169748 had expected this event in western Texas was likely around February 19, 2025.

 

O: 18FEB2025 17:14:05  31.6N  104.2W ML=2.4  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 18FEB2025 07:41:36  31.7N  104.1W ML=2.3  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 18FEB2025 08:44:24  31.7N  104.3W ML=2.5  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 18FEB2025 08:58:08  31.7N  104.3W ML=3.5  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 18FEB2025 12:16:28  31.7N  104.5W ML=4.7  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 19FEB2025 05:52:02  31.7N  104.5W ML=2.0  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 18FEB2025 09:40:48  31.6N  104.5W ML=2.6  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS                

P: 19FEB2025 169748    32.6N  104.6W 2.0-4.0 AAAAA  SW U.S.A                   

 

 

A strongest earthquake also occurred  today as an M 5.6 in Atacama, Chile. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III in Taltal, Antofagasta, Chile. EMSC reported strong shaking in Copiapo, Chile.  CSN reported the M 5.5 was felt with intensity  VI in  Atacama at Chanaral; V in Copiapo, Tierra Amarilla, Diego de Almagro, Caldera; III in El Salvador, Alto del Carmen and Vallenar and in Antofagasta at Taltal. CSN reported the M 5.5 was felt with intensity III in  Atacama with III in Chanaral, Diego de Almagro and II in Copiapo. CSN reported an M 4.7 aftershock was felt today with intensity III in  Atacama with III in Chanaral, Diego de Almagro and II in Copiapo. This is the strongest earthquake in the Atacama region of Chile within about 200 km of today's epicenter since an M 5.7 on September 15, 2023 and the first within 100 km since an M 5.9 on January 8, 2022. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"A strong M 5.9 earthquake was also felt in northern Chile in the Atacama region today. NEIC reported maximum intensity IV in Copiapo, Diego de Almagro and II-III in Antofagasta, Vina del Mar, Quilpue, Valparaiso and in Iquique, Tarapaca, Chile. GUC reported this earthquake was felt with intensity IV in  Atacama at Caldera, Chanaral, Copiapo and Tierra Amarilla and III in Diego de Almagro, Chile. A foreshock of M 4.9 preceded the mainshock by about two minutes. These events occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by strong associated tidal stresses which maximize near this hour.  An M 6.0 occurred within about 250 km of today's epicenter on July 4, 2021 but the last and only event within this distance in the past five year with greater magnitude was an M 6.8 on September 1, 2020.

 

...

 

This earthquake occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by tidal stresses which maximize near this hour." (January 8, 2022)

 

Today's event of M 5.5-5.6 occurred within minutes of local solar noon and was accompanied by a C2.8 solar flare (#4730) which may have helped trigger it.  SWPC data for this flare follow:

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

4700       1659   1710      1714   C3.0      (February 18, 2025)   2.7E-03  

Central Peru M 5.0 17:00 UT

 

4730       1714   1719      1724   C2.8      (February 18, 2025)   6.1E-04  

Atacama, Chile M 5.6 17:18 UT

 

Forecast 169886 and 169887 had expected enhanced seismicity within about

100 km of this epicenter was likely in Mid-February, 2025.

 

O: 19FEB2025 05:40:17  26.2S   71.0W mb=4.4  EMSC   OFFSHORE ATACAMA, CHILE

O: 19FEB2025 05:40:17  26.3S   70.7W mb=4.7  CSN    OFFSHORE ATACAMA, CHILE

O: 18FEB2025 17:18:47  26.2S   70.7W MW=5.6  EMSC   OFFSHORE ATACAMA, CHILE      

O: 18FEB2025 17:18:47  26.3S   70.8W MW=5.5  CSN    OFFSHORE ATACAMA, CHILE      

P: 12FEB2025 169887    27.0S   71.0W 4.0-5.6 CAAAA  Coast Central Chile        

P: 16FEB2025 169886    28.0S   68.0W 4.0-5.5 ABCAA  Argentina                  

 

An M 5.0 preceded the Atacama earthquake in central Peru. This event was not immediately reported as felt but was probably lightly felt in the area of central Peru. This event, like that in Atacama minutes later occurred at the start of a solar flare (C3.0 #4700)  (see above). It is remarkable that this earthquake occurred within a minute of local solar noon when this epicenter was directly sub-solar. These factors suggest a combination of tidal and geomagnetic effects helped to trigger this earthquake.

 

Forecast 169640 had expected enhanced seismicity within about 200 km of this epicenter was likely around February 20.

 

O: 18FEB2025 17:00:49  11.3S   74.7W MB=5.0  EMSC   CENTRAL PERU                 

P: 20FEB2025 169640     9.0S   75.0W 3.5-5.0 ACAAA  Brazil                     

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.6 in the Alaska Peninsula. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Alaska at Perryville and Sand Point and III in Chignik, Chignik Lagoon and King Cove.

 

A strong earthquake of M 5.7-5.9 was reported today in the area of Ceram, Indonesia. BMG reported it was felt with intensity up to III in Seram Bagian Timur at Tutuk Tolu, Kian Darat and Teluk Waru; with intensity II in Maluku Tengah at Seram, Banda, Telutih, in Sorong, Fak Fak, Raja Ampat and Teluk Bintuni at Kamundan. An aftershock of M 5.1 was reported by BMG to have been felt with intensity III in Maluku, Seram and II in Sorong, Fak Fak, Raja Ampat, Bintumi and Maybrat. BMG  reported an earthquake of M 5.4 in the Banda Sea was felt with  intensity up to II in the area(s) of Kab Kepulauan Tanimbar at Wer Maktian, Tanimbar, Yaru, Wuar Labobar, Kormomolin, Nirunmas and Molu Maru; in Kab. Seram Bagian Timor at Teor and in Kota Tual at Tayando Tam, Kur, Selatan. 

The last earthquake of M>=5.7 in the Ceram Sea within about 200 km of today's

epicenter occurred on May 5, 2024 with M 6.2. This event occurred on the same day as one of the strongest solar flares of the current cycle - an X4.5 (#9380).

That flare occurred when Seram was sub-solar at local solar noon. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.2 in the area of Seram, Indonesia. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to VI in Fakfak, Indonesia. BMG reported this event at M 6.1. This and an M 5.8 aftershock were reported by BMG to have been felt with intensity III in Bula, Seram Timur, Tutuk Tolu, Kilmury, Dian Darat, Teluk Waru and II in Kab Maluku Tengah, Seram Bagian, Tual, Sorong, Fak, Selatan, Raja Ampat, Teluk Bintuni, Kaimana, Maybrat and Sorong. It was probably triggered by solar flare 9200 - an M1.0 flare which was calculated by SWPC to have started within a minute of the occurrence of this event in Seram, Indonesia.

 

...

 

The only earthquake of M>=6 in Seram, Indonesia in the past three years was an M 5.8-6.1 on June 16, 2021.

 

"An earthquake of M 5.8-6.1 shook regions of the Banda Sea, Indonesia today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity VI in Amahai, Maluku, Indonesia.

BMG reported this event with M 6.1 was felt with intensity III in Tehoru, Masohi, Bula, Kairatu and Ambon, Indonesia. This event occurred as the strongest geomagnetic storm of the month occurred and reached its maximum intensity. As it is located near the geomagnetic equator and occurred near local solar noon, it is likely this was promoted by effects associated with this geomagnetic storm

 

...

 

Two earthquake have occurred within about 250 km of this epicenter with M>=5.8 in the past year - an M 5.9 on April 3, 2021 and an M 5.9 on September 8, 2020. The last of magnitude larger than M 6.1 in this area was an M 6.5 on September 25, 2019." (June 16, 2021, May 5, 2024)

 

This epicenter in Ceram Sea is at 103 degrees from the M 7.0 off northern California of December 5, 2024 and at 144 degrees from the M 7.6 in the Cayman Islands of February 8, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from those sources. A number of other epicenters in Central Indonesia today were also at this distance from the Cayman Islands.

 

Forecast 169660 had expected today's earthquake was likely in this area

around February 19, 2025.

 

O: 19FEB2025 00:01:05   3.3S  131.1E ML=4.3  EMSC   CERAM SEA, INDONESIA

O: 19FEB2025 04:38:06   3.4S  131.0E Mw=5.1  EMSC   CERAM SEA, INDONESIA

O: 18FEB2025 23:39:11   3.5S  131.0E MW=5.7  EMSC   CERAM SEA, INDONESIA         

O: 18FEB2025 23:39:11   3.5S  131.0E MW=5.9  BMG    CERAM SEA, INDONESIA          

P: 19FEB2025 169660     5.0S  131.0E 4.0-5.5 ABAAA  West Irian, PNG            

 

The earthquake in Seram, Indonesia was preceded by a moderately strong M 5.6 in the D'entrecasteau Islands region south of New Britain. This earthquake was not reported felt. It occurred within an hour of local solar noon and was likely promoted by tidal or geomagnetic effects which maximize near this hour. This is the strongest earthquake in the D'entrecasteaux region within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 6.1 on March 10, 2019. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake felt in the world today was an M 6.1 southeast of Papua New Guinea. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II in Alotau Milne Bay, Papua New Guinea. The last earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter in the D'entrecasteau Islands with M>=6.1 occurred as an M 6.1 on May 22, 1995. The only other such event in the area at this magnitude level in the past 30 years was an M 6.1 on March 13, 1992." (March 10, 2019)

 

Forecasts 169871 and 169656 had expected enhanced seismicity in this area was likely in mid-February, 2025.

 

O: 19FEB2025 02:49:44   9.0S  152.8E MW=5.6  EMSC   D'ENTRECASTEAUX ISLANDS REGION

P: 12FEB2025 169871    10.0S  151.0E 4.0-5.4 CABAA  New Ireland                 

P: 17FEB2025 169656     8.0S  156.0E 4.0-5.4 AACAA  Solomon Islands            

 

 

EARTHQUAKE WIDELY FELT NEAR LISBON, PORTUGAL

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 17, 2025

 

The area of Europe has seen a resurgence in seismicity since the M 7.6 in the

Cayman Islands of February 8, 2025. A series of unusual earthquakes have occurred in the area in the past week including an M 5.0 in Gibraltar, a series of minor tremors in Naples, Italy, continuing moderate earthquakes in the Cyclades (Dodecanese) Islands of Greece and a series of moderate earthquakes throughout the general area of the Aegean Sea and Greece. Today this series saw an M 4.8 in Portugal and an M 4.8 in eastern Turkey.

 

A moderate earthquake of M 4.8 was felt widely in the area of Portugal near Lisbon today. NEIC reported intensity up to VI (with minor damage)  in Portugal in the Lisbon area at Alenquer and in Leiria Centro and in Huelva, Spain. Intensity V was felt near Lisbon at Alverca do Ribatejo, Baixa de Banheira, Famoes Poceirao, Pragal, Trafaria, Unhos with IV in Almada, Amadora, Amora, Arrentela, Barreiro, Cacilhas, Camarate, Carnaxide, Charneca de Caparica, Corroios, Cost da Caparica, Estoril, Fernao, Linda-a-Velha, Oeiras, Paco de Arcos, Santo Antonio da Charneca, Sesimbra, Sobreda, Vialonga, Barcelos and Moreira, North Portugal. Lesser shaking was reported in Italy. EMSC reported strong shaking in Portugal. Reports of light intensity came from as far as Gibraltar and Marbella, Spain more than 400 km from the epicenter. This earthquake occurred within minutes of local solar noon and may have been promoted by tidal or geomagnetic effects which maximize near this hour. This is the strongest earthquake felt in Portugal since an M 5.4 on August 26, 2024.

The only other event of M>=4.8 in Portugal in the past 35 years was an M 4.8 on September 4, 2018. Today's earthquake could be the largest aftershock to date of the M 5.4 in August, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"A moderately strong earthquake of M 5.4 was widely felt in Portugal today. It occurred near the antipode of an earlier M 6.9 in Tonga and may have been related to antipodal focusing of seismic energy at the antipode of that epicenter. NEIC reported the earthquake in Portugal was felt with maximum intensity VII in Lisbon, Portugal at Benedita Lisboa e Vale do Tejo and VI in Portugal at Ponte Norte, Sines Alenteho with V in Trafaria Lisboa e Vale do Tejo, Santa Barbara de Nexe, Monte Redondo, Moita, Loures, Castro, Carregado, Bucelas, Bombarral, Arrentela, Alferrarede, Lisbon, and with lesser shaking throughout Portugal and portions of Spain. EMSC reported a possible minor tsunami with maximum shaking in Portugal near the towns of Sines, Zambujal de Cima, with a great deal of noise. Euro Weekly News reported no major damage or injuries with this earthquake. The last earthquake located near Portugal with M>=5.4 occurred more than 35 years ago. The only comparable event in the past 35 years occurred with M 5.4-5.5 on December 17, 2009 and January 10, 2006. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"A moderately strong earthquake of M 5.7-6.3 hit west of Gibraltar today and was felt widely in Portugal, Spain and Morocco. Spain's Seismological Institute gave the M 6.3 while NEIC gave M 5.7. The most likely magnitude given the widely felt region is M 6.3. Reports from NEIC often underestimate the magnitude of larger events initially and give larger values at a later time.  NEIC reported maximum intensity VI in Odemira, Alentjo, Portugal and V in Portugal at Boliqueime, A dos Cunhadoa, Aljezur, Azambuja, Baixa de Banheira, Castanheira do Ribatejo, Grandola, Lagoa, Luz, Malveira, Mealhada, Monchique,

Montenegro, Pampilhosa, Portimao, Porto de Mos, Soure, Queijas, Rio Maior, Serpa, Serta,  in Spain at Caceres, and in Morocco at Khouribga and Settat. Intensity IV was generally felt within about 300 km of the epicenter; III within about 500 km and II within 500-700 km from the epicenter. Spanish media reported the quake was also felt in Seville, Cordoba and Huelva, Spain. The epicenter is located near the presumed epicenter of the great Lisbon earthquake of November 1, 1755 which destroyed along with a tsunami much of the built coast of Portugal." (December 17, 2009, August 26, 2024)

 

 

Like the M 5.1 in Gibraltar of February 10, 2025 today's epicenter is at 103 degrees from the Kyushu M 6.8 of January 13, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from that source. This summary noted this possibility in an earlier issue as:

 

 

"Minor seismicity continued near the Strait of Gibraltar today but not as aftershocks. This suggests an expanding seismic field following the M 5.1 of February 10, 2025. Other area, besides Morocco and the Strait of Gibraltar which could see significant seismicity in the area in the next week include Spain and Portugal, both of which see events of M>=4.5 on occasion. Like the activity in southern Texas today these events are located near 103 degrees from the M 6.8 in Kyushu, Japan of January 13 and may have been promoted by energy from that source." (February 15, 2025)

 

 

The antipode of the event in Portugal today is in North Island, New Zealand,  an active seismic area which may see minor enhancement in seismicity in the next several days.

 

Forecast 169734 had expected this activity in Portugal was likely within about

100 km of today's epicenter around February 15, 2025.

 

O: 17FEB2025 13:24:03  38.6N    9.2W MB=4.8  EMSC   PORTUGAL                     

P: 15FEB2025 169734    39.0N    8.0W 3.5-5.3 AAAAA  Morocco/Spain              

 

Moderate earthquake resumed today in the area of Santorini, Cyclades (Dodecanese)  Islands, Greece after several days of quiet seismic conditions for the area. An M 5.1 was reported by NEIC to have been felt with intensity II in Mpatsi, Kiklades, Greece. EMSC reported an M 5.1 event in the Cyclades Islands was felt lightly in Greece at Agios Georgios, Limenas Chersonisou, Nea Alikarnassos,  Heraklion, Chania, Glyfada, Palaio Faliro, Athens, Marousi, Amarousio, Metamorfosi. This area has seen a lull in seismic activity over the past several days with few moderate sized events. Today's resurgence in Sanorini seismicity may reflect a return to previous levels or it may be a blip on the seismic trend.

 

Forecast 169709 has expected enhanced seismicity the Aegean Sea was likely

within about 25 km of these epicenters around February 15.

 

O: 17FEB2025 07:49:50  36.6N   25.7E Mw=5.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 17FEB2025 14:05:40  36.6N   25.7E Mw=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 17FEB2025 15:49:05  36.6N   25.8E Mw=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 17FEB2025 20:44:26  36.6N   25.6E ML=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 18FEB2025 02:54:09  36.6N   25.8E mb=4.6  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 18FEB2025 04:46:52  36.6N   25.8E Mw=5.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 18FEB2025 06:08:09  36.6N   25.6E mb=5.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 17FEB2025 07:36:39  36.8N   25.8E ML=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 17FEB2025 07:46:24  36.6N   25.7E MB=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE   

P: 15FEB2025 169709    36.0N   26.0E 3.0-5.6 AAAAA  Aegean Sea                 

P: 18FEB2025 169709    36.0N   26.0E 3.0-5.3 AAAAA  Aegean Sea                 

 

Other moderate activity in Europe today included an M 4.5 in eastern Turkey and continuing small tremors in the Naples, Italy area. Enhanced seismicity in these areas had been expected in forecasts 169770 and 169785.

 

EMSC reported the earthquake of M 4.3-4.5 in Eastern Turkey was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Eastern Turkey at Basharik, Tecde, Atasehir, Universite, Seyrantepe, Yukaribayir, Guneykent, Abdulhamidhan.

This epicenter in Turkey is at the 102 degrees from the M 7.6 in the Cayman Islands of February 8 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 17FEB2025 15:41:23  38.3N   38.8E MB=4.5  EMSC   EASTERN TURKEY               

P: 17FEB2025 169770    39.0N   40.0E 3.5-4.9 AAAAA  Turkey                     

 

The activity near Naples, Italy is at 147 degrees from the M 7.4 in Vanuatu of December 17, 2024 and at the fifth node (72 degrees) from the M 6.8 in Kyushu of January 13, 2025 and  may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 17FEB2025 07:12:10  40.8N   14.1E MD=3.2  EMSC   SOUTHERN ITALY               

P: 19FEB2025 169785    40.0N   17.0E 3.0-5.7 AABAA  Italy                      

 

Western Texas is now at the antipode of TC Taliah. To remind readers, this summary noted this and issued the following two days ago:

 

 

"Tropical Cyclone Taliah (14S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean south of Sumatra with winds up to 50 kts.  It is expected to track to the west and south over the next several days.  The antipode at 29N 102W is near an active seismic site in western  Texas. It is possible that this area of Texas will see enhanced seismicity while Taliah is active." (February 16-17, 2025)

 

and

 

"With the arrival of TC Taliah at the antipode to this active area of west Texas tomorrow this area could see additional moderate seismicity in the next several days especially likely around February 18 when this area is exactly antipodal to TC Taliah. TC Taliah will then move to a position under southern Colorado and northern New Mexico (around February 19-20) and then speed to the west along the latitude antipodal to 34-35 degrees north. If it does not dissipate significantly in the next several days (which is likely) remnants may reach a position antipodal to Los Angeles around February 22 and could trigger some minor regional seismicity in that area then." (February 15, 2025)

 

Minor earthquakes continued in western Texas today. The largest of these was an M 3.0. Forecast 169748 had expected this activity was likely around February 15, 2025.

 

O: 18FEB2025 06:37:42  31.6N  104.0W ML=2.0  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 17FEB2025 10:10:32  31.7N  104.5W ML=2.0  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 17FEB2025 23:27:39  31.7N  104.1W ML=2.2  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 18FEB2025 02:01:40  31.7N  104.2W ML=3.0  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 17FEB2025 18:27:06  31.3N  103.4W ML=2.0  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS                

P: 15FEB2025 169748    31.5N  103.6W 2.0-4.0 AAAAA  SW U.S.A                   

 

 

EARTHQUAKE SHAKES DELHI, INDIA

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 16, 2025

 

 

An M 4.2 earthquake was widely and strong felt in the area near New Delhi, India today. NEIC reported intensity V in Delhi at Babarpur and Bawana and Sultanpur Majra; in Haryana at Bahadurgarh, Karnal, in Suratgarh, Rajasthan, Loni and Khanpur, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Pakistan. Intensity IV shaking was also felt in India as far as about 200 km from the epicenter. Residents described the shaking as the worst they have ever felt. EMSC reported a light earthquake aftershock of M 4.0 was felt in Sareyan, India southeast of the events in Delhi. EMSC also reported an earthquake about 300 km northwest of the Delhi quake occurred about 45 seconds later as the p-wave from Delhi was passing through. EMSC reported this event in Nepal and India border with M 3.9 was felt in the Surabhi Colony of India and in Jagriti Vihar, India.

 

The M 4.2 near New Delhi is the strongest within about 150 km of that epicenter

since an M 4.4 on July 3, 2020. The strongest event in this region in the past 35 year (and the only of M>=5) occurred on March 5, 2012. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"In the same series as the events in Argentina, Halmahera and San Francisco,  an earthquake of M 5.2 was strongly felt in Northern India today shortly after the X-class solar flare occurred.

 

NEIC reported this earthquake of M 5.2 in Northern India was felt with intensity

V in Delhi at Babarpur, and in Haryana at Rohtak. It was also felt with intensity  IV in Haryana at Kaithal, and Gurgaon and in Delhi at Delhi and at Noida, Uttar Pradesh. Intensity II-III was felt in Asandh, Dera Bassi, Punjab,

Dilli Cantonment, Jaipur, Rahasthan, Ni Dilli, and Pilani. While the earthquake caused wide-spread panic, no major damage was reported. The quakes was also felt in Gurgaon, Faridabad, Rohtak, Jhajjar, Hisar and Bhiwani in Haryana. In Chandigarh panic struck people who rushed from their homes during the quake. Felt activity accompanied the quake also in Uttar-Pradesh in Ghaziabad, Noida and Agra. Cracks appeared in more than 100 buildings in the industrial area of Kalamassery as panic gripped residents. Blast-like earthquake noises accompanied the event in this area. A roof of a school in Rohtak, Haryana collapsed. People in office buildings in Gurgaon were evacuated. The epicenter is located at 103 degrees from the most recent large earthquake in the world - the M 6.7 in the Loyalty Islands, thus reinforcing the P103 theory." (March 5, 2012)

 

and relating to the X-class solar flare of the same date:

 

 

"The second strongest solar flare (X1.0) in the past four months occurred today and was immediately followed by an M 6.1 at a location which was exactly antipodal deep beneath Argentina and later by a moderate earthquake of M 4.0 in the San Francisco, California area. The maximum of this flare occurred at 04:07 UT when the areas at about 60 West and 120 East longitudes were anti- and sub-solar. These are the areas where SFE are maximized. The first and strongest earthquake which was apparently triggered by these flare effects (SFE) was the M 6.1 under Argentina at 63 West longitude. This was followed by a moderate earthquake in the  Central Philippines of M 5.3-5.5 at 124 East longitude. Both of these appear to have been triggered by Solar Flare effects (SFE)" (March 5, 2012)

 

 

Forecast 169730 had expected enhanced seismicity in this region in mid-February.

 

O: 17FEB2025 00:06:53  28.7N   77.2E MB=4.2  EMSC   HARYANA-UTTAR PRADESH REG, IND

P: 11FEB2025 169730    30.0N   79.0E 3.8-5.4 CBBAA  India                      

 

O: 17FEB2025 00:07:30  29.3N   80.3E ML=3.9  EMSC   NEPAL-INDIA BORDER REGION    

P: 11FEB2025 169730    30.0N   79.0E 3.8-5.4 CAAAA  India                      

 

O: 17FEB2025 02:32:08  25.9N   84.4E ML=4.0  EMSC   UTTAR PRADESH-BIHAR REG., INDI

P: 13FEB2025 169774    27.0N   88.0E 3.8-5.2 BBCAA  Xizang                     

 

An earthquake of M 4.0 was also felt in the region near Naples, Italy today.

EMSC reported strong shaking in Bacoli, Pozzuoli, Posillipo, Quarto, Giugliano in Campania, Napoli, Arenella, Parco Mazzola, Portici, Grumo Nevano, Volla.

 

It was accompanied by a series of minor aftershocks. Among these an M 2.9 was reported by NEIC to have been felt with intensity up to IV in Campania Italy at Calvizzano; III in Casvatore and Naples and II in Anacapri. An M 3.0 was reported with intensity V in Campania Italy at Pozzuoli; IV in Bacoli and  Quarto and III in Qualiano.

 

This event of M 3.9-4.0 is the strongest in the current (apparently volcanic)

swarm in the Naples area of Italy since an M 4.3 at a deep focus on February 4, 2025 and prior to that an M 4.2 on May 20, 2024. At the time of that event this summary noted:

 

 

"A series of light to moderate earthquakes including an M 4.1 and 4.2 also occurred today in the area of Naples, Italy. This is a region where a volcanic eruption could bring significant disruption and destruction should it occur. Seismicity has been increasing in this area over the past several months and may represent precursory activity to volcanism in this area which has seen such activity over the past several millennia - including the eruption of Mt. Vesuvius which covered Herculaneum and Pompeii in ash in the first century of the current era. Today's event of M 4.2 is the strongest shallow focus earthquake (possibly volcanic) near Naples in at least 35 years. Local geophysicists reported to the press it was the strongest in the area  in the past 40 years." (May 20, 2024)

 

This activity is at 147 degrees from the M 7.4 in Vanuatu of December 17, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Today's earthquake of M 4.0 occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and may have been promoted by tidal or geomagnetic effects which maximize near this hour.

 

 

Forecast 169733 had expected region seismic enhancement in the area was likely

around February 17.

 

O: 16FEB2025 23:19:51  40.8N   14.1E ML=3.9  EMSC   SOUTHERN ITALY               

O: 16FEB2025 23:19:51  40.8N   14.1E ML=4.0  ANSS   SOUTHERN ITALY               

P: 17FEB2025 169733    39.0N   15.0E 3.0-4.6 ABAAA  Mediterranean/Sicily       

 

A light earthquake of M 2.5 shook areas near Bangor, Maine today. NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.5 in Central Maine was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central Maine at Bangor. The last earthquake of M>=2.5 within about 100 km of this epicenter in Maine occurred on April 23, 2022 also with M 2.5. No earthquakes of M>2.5 have been recorded in this area in at least 35 years.

 

Forecast 169789 had expected a light earthquake in this area was likely around

February 17.

 

 

O: 17FEB2025 01:56:54  45.8N   69.1W ML=2.5  EMSC   MAINE                        

P: 17FEB2025 169789    47.0N   70.0W 2.0-4.1 ABAAA  Maine                      

 

A moderate earthquake of M 5.2 occurred in the area east of the Kuril Islands today. It was not reported felt in this remote area. This epicenter is at 101 degrees from the M 7.6 in the Cayman Islands of February 8, 2025 and may have been promoted be energy from that source.

 

This  activity in the Kuril Islands today is at the 100-101  degrees from the M 7.6 in the Cayman Islands of February 8, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 169818 had expected this event within about 100 km in the Kuril Islands was likely around February 17.

 

O: 16FEB2025 07:43:36  45.3N  153.0E MW=5.2  EMSC   EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS        

P: 17FEB2025 169818    47.0N  153.0E 3.5-5.4 ABAAA  So. Kurils                 

 

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.0-5.4 in the area off the coast of Araucania, Chile. NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in Araucania, Chile was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Araucania, Chile at Temuco and Villarrica and in Valdivia, Los Lagos. EMSC reported moderate to strong shaking in Chile at Carahue, Temuco, Valdivia and Pucon. CSN did not provide felt details for this event. The last earthquake recorded within about 200 km of this epicenter near Araucania, Chile with M>=5.4 occurred on as an M 5.9 on December 24, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.9 in Bio-Bio Chile. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to VI in the area of Canete, Chile. An aftershock of M 5.1 in Bio-Bio, Chile was also felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Bio-Bio, Chile in Canete. NEIC reported this aftershock of M 5.1 in Bio-Bio, Chile was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Bio-Bio, Chile in Canete. EMSC reported the mainshock was strongly felt in Bio-Bio at Lebu, Puren, Temuco, Lautaro, San Pedro de la Paz, Los Angeles, Pucon. This is the strongest earthquake in Bio-Bio, Chile since an M 6.3 north of this on November 13, 2022. The only other event in this region with M>=5.9 was an M 6.4 on September 21, 2021. At the time of the event of November, 2022 this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquakes in the world today were M 6.2-6.3 events in the Bio-Bio area of Central Chile. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity in Bio Bio at Lebu, Curanilahue; V in Arauco, Concepcion, Nacimiento; IV in Lota, Coronel, Chiguayante and lesser intensity III in Canete, Chile. The mainshock was preceded by a foreshock of M 5.7 about a minute earlier. The University of Chile reported a second event of M 6.2 a few seconds prior to this - making a series of three moderate to strong events in this set. No major damage or tsunami was reported with these earthquakes. The foreshocks were reported by NEIC to have been felt with intensity V in Concepcion; IV in Arauco and Pitrufquen and II in Talcahuano. Bio Bio, Chile. This event was probably promoted by high tidal stresses as it occurred near local solar midnight when these stresses area maximized. The M 4.9 aftershock occurred within 2 minutes of local solar midnight. The last earthquake in Bio-Bio Chile within about 150 km of these epicenters with M>=6.2 was an M  6.4 on September 21, 2021 and prior to that an M 6.4 on June 20, 2015." (November 13, 2022)

 

Like the event in 2022 this earthquake series occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by tidal stresses which maximize near this hour." (December 24, 2023)

 

 

Forecast 169901 had expected today's event within about 50 km was likely  around February 17, 2025.

 

O: 16FEB2025 07:08:42  38.5S   73.9W MW=5.0  EMSC   OFFSHORE ARAUCANIA, CHILE    

O: 16FEB2025 07:08:42  38.5S   74.1W MW=5.4  CSN    OFFSHORE ARAUCANIA, CHILE    

P: 17FEB2025 169901    38.0S   74.0W 4.0-5.4 AAAAA  Central Chile              

 

A similar event of M 5.4 occurred near the coast of Southern Peru today.

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.4 off the coast of Peru  was felt with  intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Peru at Ica. This event like those in Naples, Italy occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and may have been promoted by tidal or geomagnetic effects which maximize near this hour. It occurred near the sub-solar point and may indicate further such activity in central Peru near the sub-solar point in coming days. The last earthquake recorded within about 200 km  of this epicenter in central Peru with M>=5.4 was an M 5.7 on July 12, 2024 – an aftershock of an M 7.2 on June 28, 2024. Today's event can be considered an aftershock of the event of June 28, 2024.

 

Forecast 169867 had expected today's event was likely in this area around February 17.

 

 

O: 17FEB2025 04:30:58  15.9S   74.9W MW=5.4  EMSC   NEAR COAST OF SOUTHERN PERU  

P: 17FEB2025 169867    15.0S   76.0W 4.0-5.6 AAAAA  Central Peru               

 

O: 16FEB2025 07:43:36  45.3N  153.0E MW=5.2  EMSC   EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS        

P: 17FEB2025 169818    47.0N  153.0E 3.5-5.4 ABAAA  So. Kurils                 

 

This  activity in the Kuril Islands today is at the 100-101  degrees from the M 7.6 in the Cayman Islands of February 8, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

 

 

MODERATE EARTHQUAKES NEAR LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 15, 2025

 

Moderate earthquakes of M 3.7  and M 3.5 in the region of western Los Angeles, California occurred today within several minutes of local solar midnight. It was followed by a series of minor aftershocks including an M 3.5 and a number of events of M<2. NEIC reported these earthquakes were felt with intensity IV in Los Angeles, Topanga, Stanton, Oak Park, Port Hueneme and III in Los Angeles,

Culver City, El Segundo, Hermosa Beach, Lawndale, Lynwood, Malibu, Manhattan Beach, Palos Verdes Peninsula, Rancho Palos Verdes, Marina del Rey, Inglewood, Santa Monica, Torrance, Whittier, Santa Fe Springs, Paramount, San Pedro, Long Beach, Glendale, Agoura hills, Calabasas, Winnetka, West hills, Chatsworth, Newbury Park, Porter Ranch, Reseda. Tarzana, Thousand Oaks, Westlake Village, Woodland Hills, Van Nuys, Temecula, Huntington Beach, Mission Viejo, Orange, Ventura, Camarillo, Moorpark, Oxnard and Simi Valley, California. Lesser shaking was reported as far as 150 km from the epicenter in California. The last earthquake of M>=3.7 in Los Angeles within about 40 km of today's epicenter was recorded on November 22, 2024. The mainshock was followed by an M 1.7 aftershock

three minutes later which NEIC reported was felt with intensity III in Malibu, Thousand Oaks, Camarillo, Simi Valley and Woodland Hills, California. Three minutes after the M 3.7 in Malibu, California an M 2.0 occurred in Central California near Pinnacles. NEIC reported it was felt at Del Rey, California with intensity II. This event may have been promoted by surface waves from Mailbu which arrived at this event in Central California with the occurrence of the M 2.0 there. At the time this summary noted:

 

"A moderate earthquake of M 3.8 was widely felt in the region of greater Los Angeles, California near Malibu today. This near-noontime event was reported by NEIC with maximum intensity IV in California at Pacific Palisades, Seal Beach and Ventura; III in Los Angeles, Beverly Hills, Culver City, Downey, El Segundo, Malibu, Manhattan Beach, Palos Verdes Peninsula, Topanga, Marina del Rey, Santa Monica, Harbor City, Lomita, Wilmington, Long Beach, Glendale, Agoura Hills, Calabasas, Canoga Park, West Hills, Encino, Newbury Park, Reseda, Thousand Oaks, Westlake Village, and in general within about 100 km of the epicenter in Southern California. EMSC reported this earthquake at M 3.6 felt in the area of Los Angeles with moderate intensity. The last earthquake larger magnitude in this region of Los Angeles occurred as an M 4.7 on September 12, 2024. Other earthquakes in this area this year occurred as an M 4.1 on January 1, 2024 and February 9, 2024 with M 4.6 and an M 4.4 on August 12, 2024. This summary has previously noted enhanced seismicity in this region of Los Angeles this year most recently on September 12, 2024 as:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.7 in the region of Los Angeles, California. NEIC received nearly 20,000 felt reports from residents of Southern California. These included reports of intensity V in Malibu, Agoura Hills, Westlake Village, Thousand Oaks, and IV in Calabasas, Oak Park, Newbury Park, West Hills, Woodland Hills, Camarillo, Canoga Park, Simi Valley, Winnetka, Tarzama, Santa Monica, Moorpark, Santa Monica, Encino, Reseda, Northridge, Los Angeles, Sherman Oaks, Van Nuys, Somis, Marina del Rey, Beverly Hills, Studio City, Valley Village, North Hollywood, Universal City, Hermosa Beach among others. Intensity III was felt as far as 150 km from the epicenter in places such as San Bernardino and Camp Pendleton, California with II shaking as far as 600 km from the epicenter in Arizona, Nevada, Oregon and Colorado among others.

The last earthquake in the Los Angeles with M>=4.7 within about 100 km of today's M 4.7 epicenter occurred as an M 5.1 on August 20, 2023 and prior to that an M 5.1 on March 29, 2014 and M 4.7 on May 18, 2009, the last such event in the Simi Valley near Los Angeles.

 

Light aftershocks, including an M 3.4 were felt with intensity up to IV in Southern California in Malibu, Agoura Hills, Westlake Village, Calabasas, Oak Park, Thousand Oaks, Newbury Park, Woodland Hills, Camarillo, Simi Valley, Northridge, Los Angeles and as far as 200 km from the epicenter in Ludlow and San Diego. NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.9 in Southern California was felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of Southern California in Del Mar.

 

The last earthquake near today's epicenter with M>=4.5 was an M 4.6 on February 9, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The moderate earthquake of M 4.6-4.7 was widely felt in the region of Los Angeles, California today. Press reports indicate it was felt by more than a million residents in the area of western Los Angeles and the San Fernando Valley to Malibu, California with maximum intensity up to V in Los Angeles. EMSC reported very strong shaking in Los Angeles, California at Westlake Village, Agoura Hills, Thousand Oaks, Oak Park, Casa Conejo, Newbury Park, Calabasas, Moorpark, Camarillo, Simi Valley, Woodland Hills, Canoga Park, Winnetka, Chatsworth, Northridge, Reseda, Tarzana, Chatsworth and as far as Dana Point, Loma Linda, Hesperia, and in Winterhaven and Yuma, Arizona. Many smaller aftershocks were felt in the same area.  Minor damage was reported in Los Angeles. This included some minor damage to structures and the temporary closure of regional theme parks such as Disneyland rides.

 

This was the strongest earthquake in the Los Angeles, CA area since an M

5.1 on August 20, 2023 and an M 5.3 on April 5, 2018 and is near the epicenter

of the Northridge earthquake of M 6.7 of January 17, 1994 and the M 6.8 in

San Fernando Valley of February 9, 1971." (November 22, 2024)

 

 

Readers of this summary had been warned to expect this type of enhanced seismicity in southern and central California as recently as February 13 when it was noted:

 

 

Readers should also be reminded that there is still a seismic watch out for the area of the west coast of the U.S. including Alaska and California. This was noted in previous issues of this summary as:

 

 

"Following the massive fires in January and February, 2005, this summary began watching seismicity of this region. As energy from TC Vince matches the  full moon and energy from the M 7.6 in the Cayman Islands at about the right time for unloading effects from the fires, conditions in Southern California (Simi Valley, L.A. California is at the 10th node (36.0 degrees) from the Cayman Islands epicenter)and northern Baja and the Gulf of California appear to be optimized in mid-February to trigger a moderate (or possibly large) earthquake in that area in the coming week." (February 9-10, 2025).

 

This is emphasized as a strong storm hit the northeast over the past day. Such storms often accompany enhanced seismicity in California or Alaska as noted in many previous issues of this summary. This watch was later extended to northern California and eventually to Alaska and is in effect for two more days. A seismic watch is called when environmental conditions in an area could induce enhanced seismicity in a limited time period." (February 13, 2025)

 

When the first began in early January, this summary provided an overview of

expected related seismicity in the issue of January 8, 2025 as:

 

"A major series of wildfires is currently consuming large portions of acreage in

Southern California in the Los Angeles region. The cause of these is currently being investigated but is not known a this writing. Thousands of homes have been burnt to the ground, millions are without electricity and injuries and deaths have not been calculated at this point. This is a major disaster for the area. Fire fighters and disaster personnel are on the scene trying to mitigate the disaster and winds are expected to be at lower speeds in the next day.  While this is not an earthquake, or earthquake related, the residents of this heavily populated area of the U.S. southwest are in our thoughts.

 

In terms of earthquakes there have been two major earthquake disasters in the Los Angeles area in the past 90 years. The first of these occurred as the San Fernando earthquake of M 6.8 of February 9, 1971. This was described in this summary as:

 

"2  9 14  0 55 1971  34.400 -118.434   9 6.7   So. California

 

The San Fernando earthquake. Maximum intensity VI when the Olive View Hospital was destroyed.  58 killed of which 49 were at the San Fernando Veterans Ad. Hospital. More than 2,000 injured. Damage estimated at more than $500 millioin. The near-failure of the Lower Van Norman Dam caused evacuation of thousands. Electrical and utilities were completely disrupted. Ground faulting was observed in the San Fernando area and landslides were common. Highway overpasses, railroads, pipelines were severely damaged by slides. Roads were blocked by rockfalls." (February 9, 2024)

 

The other was the Northridge earthquake of January 17, 1994 of M 7.0 as described in this summary:

 

 

" 1 17 12 30 55 1994  34.220 -118.760  18 7.0   So. California

 

Strongly damaging in the Los Angeles, Ventura, Orange and San Bernardino area with maximum damage in the Northridge area. Up to 60 killed and 7000 injured.  40,000 buildings damaged and more than 20,000 homeless. Maximum intensity was IX at Northridge and Sherman Oaks. Overpasses on the Santa Monica Freeway collapsed. Damage also to other freeways in the area. Fires were started by the earthquakes which caused additional damage. Estimated damage was $20 billion (U.S. Dollars). Felt throughout southern California into Nevada, Utah and Baja, California. Rockslides closed many roads. Ground cracks were noted at Granada Hills and Potrero Canyon. Liquefaction occurred in the Los Angeles Basin." (January 17, 2024)

 

The Northridge earthquake was preceded by a series of disastrous fires in the area described in the UNDRR (United Nations report as:

 

"USA: The 1993 Southern California Fires (IFFN No 10- January 1994)

 

Southern California suffered another disastrous series of Fires in October and November 1993. The fires started on 26 October under sever Santa Ana Wind conditions, some by arson and other accidentally. Preliminary data indicate that a total of 21 fires covered 197225 acres (almost 84,000 ha) injuring 162 people and killing three. The fires destroyed 1241 structures and damage was preliminarily estimated by be $500 million, although that figure could rise as damage is further assessed and the aftermath of heavy rains, mudslides, and floods after the fires takes its toll.

 

The fires were in six southern California counties - Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego and Ventura."

 

Likewise the San Fernando earthquake of 1971 had been preceded several months before by a major wild fire in the Los Angeles area. The website htts://achistory.com/gif/galleries/fire092570/  describes this fire as:

 

"September 25, 1970 - The Clampitt (Newhall and W4ight (Malibu) fires of September 25, 1970 merged to become the largest and deadliest wildfire in modern Los Angeles County history, up to that point.

 

The Clampitt fire broke out around 8 a.m. Friday, Sept. 25, near Clampitt Road in the Newhall Pass as a result of Downed power lines. In Santa Ana winds clocked at 80 mph, it took less than a day for the fire to make a 20-mile run to the coast, tearing through Porter Ranch, the Simi Hills at Chatsworth, south to the 101 Freeway and on to Malibu Canyon. News reports initially called it the Chatsworth-Malibu Canyon fire because much of the destruction  occurred there.

 

By the time the smoke cleared, the Clampitt Fire had scorched 107,103 acres of brush and forest, destroyed 80 structures (source: University of California Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources). It sill stands as L.A. County's deadliest wildfire in modern history ..."

 

While other wildfires of lesser extent occur in the area of Los Angeles every year. The seasonal Santa Ana winds are a major factor in spreading the fires. But is there a relation between major wild fires in the Los Angeles area and subsequent earthquakes such as those of February, 1971 and January, 1994?

 

This summary has previously noted that there may be such a connection. Fires remove a substantial mass from the surface over a broad area. This mass is redistributed through winds and carried away by human activities out of the region. As with, but reverse from, reservoir loading and subsequent earthquakes, this can lead to substantial adjustment in the stress environment of the area beneath the fires and perhaps to strong earthquakes.

 

Significant earthquakes in the area of Los Angeles often occur when a tropical cyclone is active in the South Indian Ocean east and south of Madagascar (at the antipode of Los Angeles - 34S 62E). So readers may want to watch for such a meteorological storm in the next couple of months.

 

At the very least, these fires remind that the first several months of the  year (January-March) are the most likely to see major earthquakes in the area of southern California near Los Angeles and since it has been 31 years since the last such event, one might be overdue. Keeping a well stocked emergency kit for local or regional disasters is especially important. And keeping valuables and transportation easily in reach is also recommended. This summary will attempt to provide warnings if such an event seems imminent." (January 8, 2025)

 

The last earthquake within about 50 km in the area of western Los Angeles with M>=3.6 occurred on November 22, 2024 (See above)

 

Forecast 169754 had expected today's activity in western Los Angeles, California

was likely around February 15 within about 50 km of these epicenters.

 

O: 15FEB2025 07:44:04  34.0N  118.9W ML=3.6  EMSC   CHANNEL ISLANDS REG., CALIFORNIA

O: 15FEB2025 14:30:11  34.0N  118.9W ML=3.3  EMSC   CHANNEL ISLANDS REG., CALIFORNIA

O: 15FEB2025 21:47:42  34.4N  118.9W ML=2.0  EMSC   GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALI

P: 15FEB2025 169754    33.9N  118.3W 2.5-4.5 AAAAA  So. California             

 

 

In addition to the earthquakes in western Los Angeles, an M 3.5 occurred near Idyllwild, California. The last earthquake of M>=3.5 within about 50 km of this epicenter was an M 3.7 on June 3, 2022.

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.5 east of Los Angeles, California  was felt with  intensity up to IV in the area(s) of east of Los Angeles, California at Aguanga, III at San Dimas, Fallbrook, Valley Center, Vista, Warner Springs, Cathedral City, La Quinta, Palm Springs, Rancho Mirage, Anza, Hemet, Idyllwild, Mountain Center, Murrieta, San Jacinto, Temecula and II at Escondido, Ramona, Solana Beach, San Diego, Indio, Indian Wells, Banning, Desert Hot Springs, Palm Desert, Hemet, Moreno Valley, Murrieta, San Jacinto, Menifee, Sun City, Winchester, Fullerton, Los Angeles, among others.

 

Forecast 169755 had expected this earthquake was likely within this area

around February 13.

 

O: 15FEB2025 22:16:58  33.6N  116.7W ML=3.5  EMSC   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA           

P: 13FEB2025 169755    33.9N  116.9W 2.5-4.6 AAAAA  So. California             

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.7 in Eastern Los Angeles, California was felt with  intensity up to III in the area(s) of Eastern Los Angeles, California at Rancho Cucamonga, Crestline, Fontana, Highland, San Bernardino and II in Woodland Hills, Lake Arrowhead.

 

O: 16FEB2025 02:24:17  34.2N  117.3W ML=2.7  EMSC   GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALI

P: 16FEB2025 169756    34.1N  117.5W 2.5-4.6 AAAAA  So. California              

 

An earthquake of M 4.7 hit eastern Turkey today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to II in Takman, Erzurum, Turkey. EMSC reported this earthquake was felt lightly in eastern Turkey at Dikme, Ataturk and Yaylacik. This epicenter is at 103 degrees from the M 7.6 in the Cayman Islands of February 8, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from that source. The last earthquake of M>=4.8 within about 150 km of this epicenter was an M 4.8 on March 30, 2024 and M 4.8 on September 16, 2022. The last of larger magnitude was an M 5.4 on  June 25, 2021. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.4 in eastern Turkey. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity V in Yayladere, Bingol Turkey; IV in Pulumur, Tunceli and II-III in Blazig and Batman, Turkey. This is the strongest earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter in Eastern Turkey in more than a year. An M 5.9 with aftershock of M 5.4 hit this area on June 14 and 15, 2020." (June 25, 2021)

 

This epicenter is at 103 degrees from the Cayman Islands earthquake of M 7.6 on February 8, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 169770 had expected this earthquake was likely within about 50 km

in eastern Turkey around February 17, 2025.

 

O: 15FEB2025 23:24:48  39.3N   40.7E MW=4.8  EMSC   EASTERN TURKEY               

P: 17FEB2025 169770    39.0N   40.0E 3.5-4.9 AAAAA  Turkey                     

 

A moderate earthquake of M 4.7 was also felt today in Pakistan. NEIC reported intensity V in Rawalpindi and IV in Islamabad,  Kahuta, Punjab, Pakietan with intensity II-III in Pakistan at Wah, Lalamusa, and in Jodhpur, and Gandarbat, Jammu and Kashmir, India. EMSC reported a strong intensity in Pakistan at Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Abbottabad, Kupwara, Chhatabal, India and Batmaloo, Jammu and Kashmir, and Srinagar, Ramban, Anantnag, Bishnah India. This is the largest earthquake in Pakistan within about 150 km of this epicenter since an M 5.2 about 150 km southeast of this epicenter on December 5, 2024.

 

 

This epicenter is at 103-104 degrees from the M 7.4 in Vanuatu of December 17, 2024 and at 103 degrees from the M 7.0 off Northern California of December 5, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 169746 had expected this event within about 100 km was likely around

February 13.

 

O: 15FEB2025 17:48:16  33.4N   73.1E MB=4.7  EMSC   PAKISTAN                     

P: 13FEB2025 169746    34.0N   74.0E 3.8-5.4 AAAAA  Pakistan                   

 

A moderate M 4.9 was also felt in the area of the Aegean Sea, Greece today.

NEIC reported maximum intensity IV in Neos Marmaras, Greece and III in Halkidiki, Kavala and Thessaloniki, Greece and II-III in Bulgaria at Bansko, Haskovo, Plovdiv,  and Ardino. A similar earthquake of M 4.9 hit this area on December 13, 2024. The last of larger magnitude in the area was an M 5.2 on November 3, 2024.

 

This epicenter is at 142 degrees from the M 7.4 in Vanuatu of December 17, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from that source. This epicenter is at the fourth node (90 degrees) from the Cayman Islands earthquake of M 7.6 on February 8, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 169812 had expected this event within about 100 km was likely around

February 17.

 

 

O: 15FEB2025 16:11:49  40.3N   24.1E MW=4.9  EMSC   AEGEAN SEA                   

P: 17FEB2025 169812    40.0N   23.0E 3.0-5.0 AAAAA  Romania/NW Turkey          

 

An M 3.9 occurred north of Puerto Rico today in the Mona Passage. It was not reported felt. This event lies near the antipode of TC Zelia. It is likely  to have been promoted by antipodal energy from that cyclone as noted in this and previous issues of this summary:

 

 

"Tropical Cyclone Zelia (18S) made landfall today in the area of the south Indian Ocean north of western Australia with winds up to 140 kts.   The antipode at 19N  63W is in the northern Caribbean near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.  Antipodal focusing of energy from this storm could help promote a moderate to strong earthquake in that area in the next couple of days. A moderate earthquake near Puerto Rico seems likely in the next week." (February 15-16, 2025)

 

Forecast 169686 had expected this earthquake was likely within about 100 km

around February 16.

 

O: 15FEB2025 11:48:06  18.8N   67.5W MD=3.1  EMSC   PUERTO RICO REGION

O: 15FEB2025 15:57:20  18.8N   67.3W MD=3.0  EMSC   PUERTO RICO REGION

O: 16FEB2025 06:55:57  18.2N   68.3W MD=3.9  EMSC   MONA PASSAGE, DOMINICAN REPUBL

P: 16FEB2025 169686    19.0N   69.0W 3.4-5.1 AAAAA  Puerto Rico                

 

The earthquake in the Caribbean was followed 13 minutes later by an M 5.0-5.4 off the coast of Araucania, Chile. EMSC reported this earthquake was felt with moderate intensity in Chile at Valdivia and Carahue. CSN did not make initial intensity reports available but did provide the following seismic data for this event.

 

Forecast 169901 had expected this event within about 50 km was likely around

February 17, 2025.

 

O: 16FEB2025 07:08:42  38.6S   74.1W MW=5.0  EMSC   OFFSHORE ARAUCANIA, CHILE    

O: 16FEB2025 07:08:42  38.5S   74.1W MW=5.4  EMSC   OFFSHORE ARAUCANIA, CHILE    

P: 17FEB2025 169901    38.0S   74.0W 4.0-5.4 AAAAA  Central Chile              

 

The strongest earthquake in or near the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.6 in the Bering Sea, Alaska. This is the strongest earthquake in this area since an M 5.0 on February 3, 2025. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today occurred in the Bering

Strait of northwestern Alaska with M 5.0. This is the strongest earthquake in the Bering Sea, Alaska within about 250 km of this epicenter since an M 5.3 on February 21, 2012 and an M 5.2 on September 25, 2009. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.4-5.6 in the Bering Strait region off Alaska's northwest coast. It may have been felt in the Point

Hope and Kotzebue regions on the coast of Alaska but there have been no reports of damage associated with this earthquake. This earthquake was likely promoted by the new moon tidal alignment which was maximized in this region today as noted in our summary yesterday. The earthquake occurred near local midnight when tides were the highest. The last moderate earthquake in the Bering Strait, an M 4.4 on August 8, 2010 occurred a day before the New Moon as did an M 4.3 on June 20, 2009. Today's earthquake is the strongest recorded in the Bering Strait region in at least 22 years. We have noted this tidal relation for the area in the past." (February 21, 2012, February 3, 2025) 

 

This epicenter is at the fifth node (72 degrees) from the Cayman Islands earthquake of M 7.6 on February 8, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from that source. Other earthquakes at the fifth node from the Cayman Islands today occurred in Portugal and Gibraltar.

 

Forecast 169858 had expected this event within about 50 km was likely around

February 14.

 

O: 16FEB2025 02:52:18  65.4N  169.1W MB=4.6  EMSC   NEAR S COAST OF CHUKOTKA, RUSS

P: 14FEB2025 169858    66.0N  167.8W 3.0-5.0 AAAAA  Northern Alaska            

 

 

UNUSUAL QUAKES IN RUSSIA, TEXAS, AND ETHIOPIA

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 14, 2025

 

 

A series of triggered earthquakes occurred throughout the world today. The strongest event of the day was an M 6.0 in Ethiopia, the largest in this region since 1990.

 

An M 5.0-5.1 also occurred in west Texas near the New Mexico Border today.  This event is near the antipode of TC Taliah, the same Tropical Cyclone that helped trigger the M 7.6 in the Cayman Islands of February 8, 2025.

 

The earthquake in Texas occurred several hours before enhanced activity in Los Angeles, California which included events of M 3.7 and 3.5 in western Los Angeles and the Simi Valley area.

 

These events and triggering agents are examined in more detail further in this summary.

 

TEXAS

 

An M 5.0-5.1 hit the area of western Texas today. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity up to V in Odessa, Texas and Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico with IV in Texas at Friona, Lubbock, Fort Stockton, Van Horn, El Paso, and in New Mexico at Rincon, Anthony, Roswell, Artesia, Carlsbad, Eunice,  Hagerman, Loving, Capitan, Corona, Hondo and Tularosa with lesser shaking within about 500 km of the epicenter mostly in Texas and New Mexico but also reported felt in Utah.

EMSC reported moderate to strong shaking in New Mexico at Otis, Roswell, Carlsbad, Ruidoso and in Texas at Artesia, Odessa, El Paso, Anthony, Alamogordo, and in Juarez, Mexico. This earthquake occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by tidal stresses with the full moon of February 12, 2025 which maximize near this hour. The M 5.0 was preceded by an M 2.6 regional foreshock which was felt with intensity up to IV in El Paso and III in Las Cruces, New Mexico and Lubbock, Aspermont and Midland. An  in Alpine and Pecos, Texas. M 2.6 was near Big Bend was also felt in El Paso, Texas today.

 

The larger earthquakes in western Texas often occur near full and  new moons as this summary as noted in the past as when the series began on March 26, 2020 with a new moon on March 27, 2020 and the last event of M>=5 which occurred within about 200 km of today's epicenter as an M 5.2 on November 8, 2023:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.2 in the Mentone area of Texas. It was reported with intensity up to VI in Mentone, Texas and with moderate shaking in Carlsbad, New Mexico an in Fabens, El Paso, Texas among others.

 

This event was probably promoted by well injection of waters following fracking and extraction of oil and gas in the region. This may also have been promoted by geomagnetic effects associated with the current geomagnetic storm and/or by tidal stresses associated with the upcoming new moon as described in this issue in previous summaries

 

...

 

A series of minor aftershocks followed the M 5.2 in western Texas today and continued throughout the day. The M 5.2 is the strongest earthquake in Texas since an M 5.4 on December 16, 2022 about 200 km northeast of this epicenter and an M 5.4 on November 16, 2022 which began the sequence of events in this region of the Permian Basin of Texas." (November 8, 2023)

 

While the antipode of TC Taliah is not exactly where the M 5.0 occurred in

West Texas today, it was a much better match for events of M 2.4 and  M 2.6 in Southern Texas near Charlotte. NEIC reported that event was felt with intensity up to IV in San Antonio, Texas. TC Taliah was at 28S 82E when the Texas event occurred at the antipode - 28N 98W.

 

Today's events in southern Texas had been anticipated to occur around February 14 in forecast 169701.

 

Like today's activity in the Strait of Gibraltar these events are located near 103 degrees from the M 6.8 in Kyushu, Japan of January 13 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 14FEB2025 12:38:58  28.9N   98.2W ML=2.4  EMSC   SOUTHERN TEXAS

O: 14FEB2025 13:29:39  28.7N   98.9W ML=2.6  EMSC   SOUTHERN TEXAS               

P: 14FEB2025 169701    28.0N   99.0W 3.0-4.7 AAAAA  Northern Mexico            

 

With the arrival of TC Taliah at the antipode to this active area of west Texas tomorrow this area could see additional moderate seismicity in the next several days especially likely around February 18 when this area is exactly antipodal to TC Taliah. TC Taliah will then move to a position under southern Colordo and northern New Mexico (around February 29-20) and then speed to the west along the latitude antipodal to 34-35 degrees north. If it does not dissipate significantly in the next several days (which is likely) remnants may reach a position antipodal to Los Angeles around February 22 and could trigger some minor regional seismicity in that area then.

 

Forecast 169748 had expected enhanced seismicity in this area of western

Texas was likely around February 15.

 

O: 15FEB2025 05:25:28  31.7N  104.2W ML=3.8  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 15FEB2025 05:26:32  31.7N  104.2W ML=2.6  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 15FEB2025 05:27:25  31.7N  104.2W ML=2.1  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 15FEB2025 05:28:16  31.7N  104.2W ML=2.6  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 15FEB2025 05:58:45  31.7N  104.2W ML=2.1  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 14FEB2025 19:33:04  31.9N  102.5W ML=2.3  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 15FEB2025 05:32:44  31.9N  101.7W ML=2.3  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 15FEB2025 02:53:54  32.5N  102.0W ML=2.5  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS

O: 15FEB2025 05:23:21  31.6N  104.2W MW=4.9  EMSC   WESTERN TEXAS                 

P: 15FEB2025 169748    31.5N  103.6W 2.0-4.0 AAAAA  SW U.S.A                   

 

ETHIOPIA

 

An M 6.0 occurred in the current swarm (which began in September, 2024) in Ethiopia today. NEIC reported it was felt with damage and intensity up to IX at Metehara, Oromia, Ethiopia and with intensity II in Addis Ababa. EMSC reported very strong shaking at Awasa Zuriya, Ethiopia. This epicenter is near the Fentale Volcano which has seen active volcanism and seismicity in the past half year. This is the strongest earthquake within about 300 km in Ethiopia in at least 35 years. More than 80,009 have been evacuated from the area in the past several months. More than 250,000 residents felt the earthquake. Many of them were unable to evacuate due to major rifting on roads leading from the epicentral area. The earthquake occurred between Dofan and Fentale volcanoes

The current eruptions and seismicity have opened up may active fissures in the area. While early reports indicate there was little damage and no injuries from today's earthquake many homes and buildings have been destroyed in previous seismic events in the current swarm.

 

An M 6.2 hit about 300 northeast of this epicenter on March 5, 1992. This earthquake occurred at the start of a strong solar flare of M1.8 (SWPC # 4030 - see parameters below). Activity in Ethiopia is often associated with strong solar flares and noted in previous issues of this summary for example:

 

 

"The swarm of earthquakes in the region of Ethiopia which began on Sept.

20(2005) continued at very high rates today. Earthquakes of M 5.1, 4.3, 4.8, 4.9, 5.0, 5.3, 4.6, 4.9, 4.3, 5.1, 4.8, 4.4, 4.9, 4.6, 4.8, 5.2 and 5.0 were  located in the region today and are currently continuing with intervals  of about one hour between events. This is indicative of upcoming volcanism and/or a strong earthquake in the area which may be accelerated by any strong solar or geomagnetic activity.  An earthquake of M>=6 is still possible in this region in association with this swarm." (September 25, 2005)

 

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

4030       2025   2057      2105   M1.8      (February 14, 2025)   1.2E-02  

Ethiopia M 6.0 20:28 UT

 

This earthquake occurred near the third node (120 degrees) from the M 7.6 in the Cayman Islands of February 8 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 169665 had expected today's event in Ethiopia within about 10 km of the epicenter was likely around February 13.

 

O: 14FEB2025 20:28:24   8.9N   39.9E MW=6.0  EMSC   ETHIOPIA                     

P: 13FEB2025 169665     9.0N   40.0E 3.5-5.1 AAAAA  Ethiopia                   

 

RUSSIA

 

An unusual earthquake of M 5.7 (NEIC) to M 6.4 (RAS) hit on the border regioni between Russia and Kazakhstan today. NEIC reported maximum intensit in Altaj, Russia at Biysk and IV in Gorno-Alaysk, with intensity II-III in Altaj, Russia at Zarinsk, Barnaul and in Tomsk and in Oskemen Sigis, Kazakhstan. EMSC reported moderate to strong shaking in Russia at Ust-Koksa, Gorno-Altaysk, Sheregesh, Biysk, Sayanogorsk, Mezhdurechensk, Novokuznetsk, Barnaul, Novyy Gorodok, Rubtsovsk, Kemerovo, Berdsk, Novosibirsk and in Kazakhstan at Akimshiik, Sheregesh, Biysk, Ust-Kamenogorsk.   Rumors circulated on the internet of major damage in the epicentral area but the Russian Academy of Science and United Geophysical  Service said minor damage was reported from some areas. No casualties were reported  but a "maximum alert regime" was in effect cancelling public events and emphasizing potential water supply problems near the epicentral area.  The last earthquake with equal or larger magnitude within about 300 km of this epicenter near the Russia-Mongolia border was recorded as an M 7.3 on September 27, 2003 with aftershocks of M 6.4 and 6.8 on October 1, 2003, At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"A strong earthquake (M 7.3) with a very energetic aftershock sequence hit the region along the Siberia, Russia/Mongolia border today. The earthquake was strong enough to have caused damage in the epicentral region, but since the area is not highly populated this damage is expected to be slight to moderate by this summary. Previous strong earthquakes in the area of this event have not caused significant damage. The first strong recorded earthquake in this area occurred on November 8, 1761 probably south of today's event with M 7.5-8.3 and was followed by  strong aftershocks for up to 10 years (the last of these apparently occurred as an M 6.0 on March 1, 1771. Damage was moderate to mining structures in the region.

People located in the Shagyr Fort were panicked, but damage was limited (intensity IX). An aftershock of M 6.5 occurred on Feb. 20, 1765, More recent strong earthquakes have occurred in the vicinity of today's event on Dec. 28, 1902 (M 6.6). Strong shaking was associated with this event as well (intensity 7-8). An earthquake with intensity 9 (strong and damaging shaking and destruction) occurred about 400 to the south on April 10, 1931 (M 7.8). The rupture length of this event was reported as up to 200 km. The last strong event in the region was recorded on Nay 15, 1970 with M about 7.0. It was strongly felt with damage (intensity 9) in the Tsagan-Shibetuy area and was followed by a strong aftershock sequence. On the basis of previous events in this area, then we can forecast that damage will be light to moderate, maximum intensity will probably be between VII and IX. (Data source: New Catalog of Strong Earthquakes in the U.S.S.R. from ancient Times through 1977, World Data Center

A for Solid Earth Geophysics, July 1982). ... A foreshock did occur in this area on September 17. At the time this summary had noted this event in our main summary where we had stated:

 

"Strong regional activity was recorded in the Lake Baykal region of Siberia, Russia today. The strongest of these was an M 5.4 in the Lake Baykal was apparently the strongest event in this region area since December 21, 1999 when an M 5.5 was recorded. This event was followed by a smaller event about 700 km to the southwest of the mainshock with preliminary magnitude M 4.2-4.6 early on September 17. Lake Baykal is considered the deepest fresh water lake in the world and occupies a rift in central Siberia. The area is not highly populated and these two events are unlikely to have caused regional damage despite their size and shallow focal depth. This summary had expected activity in this area in early September within 100 km of the later event with maximum magnitude up to M 4.5." (September 17, 2003, September 27, 2003)

 

 

This earthquake occurred near the 110 degrees from the M 7.6 in the Cayman Islands of February 8 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 15FEB2025 01:48:10  50.0N   88.3E MW=5.7  EMSC   SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA 

 

 

The weeks-long series of moderate earthquakes in the Santorini area of the Dodecanese Islands entered a lull period today. Only five events of M>=4.0 were recorded in this region today. While a lull such as this can indicate the available seismic energy has been largely used up, it can also mean that it is being stored up for a larger event. Don't rule out further moderate seismicity  in this area.

 

This activity is at 142 degrees from the M 7.4 in Vanuatu of December 17, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 169709 had expected extended seismicity in this area was likely around

February 14.

 

O: 14FEB2025 20:17:45  36.6N   25.6E ML=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 14FEB2025 20:18:55  36.7N   25.7E mb=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 14FEB2025 22:45:18  36.7N   25.8E mb=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 15FEB2025 03:37:42  36.7N   25.7E mb=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 14FEB2025 14:57:39  36.6N   25.6E ML=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE   

P: 15FEB2025 169709    36.0N   26.0E 3.0-5.6 AAAAA  Aegean Sea                 

 

Minor seismicity continued near the Strait of Gibraltar today but not as aftershocks of the  M 5.1 of February 10. This suggests an expanding seismic field following the M 5.1 of February 10, 2025. Other areas, besides Morocco and the Strait of Gibraltar which could see significant seismicity in the area in the next week include Spain and Portugal, both of which see events of M>=4.5 on occasion. Like the activity in southern Texas today these events are located near 103 degrees from the M 6.8 in Kyushu, Japan of January 13 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 15FEB2025 03:24:29  35.4N    4.6W MB=2.5  EMSC   STRAIT OF GIBRALTAR          

P: 12FEB2025 169734    37.0N    4.0W 3.5-6.1 BBAAA  Morocco/Spain              

 

O: 14FEB2025 13:03:44  36.6N    9.8W ML=3.2  EMSC   WEST OF GIBRALTAR            

P: 16FEB2025 169734    37.0N   10.0W 3.5-5.3 AAAAA  Morocco/Spain              

 

A minor series also occurred today in the Naples region of Italy. Small events in this area can lead to larger felt regional earthquakes. The area contains an active volcanic pool and some fear an eruption is on the horizon.

 

This activity is at 147 degrees from the M 7.4 in Vanuatu of December 17, 2024 and at the fourth node (90 degrees) from the M 7.0 off northern California of December 5, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

O: 14FEB2025 22:30:56  40.8N   14.2E MD=2.3  EMSC   SOUTHERN ITALY

O: 14FEB2025 23:01:36  40.8N   14.2E MD=2.0  EMSC   SOUTHERN ITALY

O: 14FEB2025 22:29:21  40.8N   14.2E MD=2.3  EMSC   SOUTHERN ITALY               

P: 17FEB2025 169733    39.0N   15.0E 3.0-4.6 BBAAA  Mediterranean/Sicily       

 

 

STRONG EARTHQUAKE IN ALASKA STARTS SERIES IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 13, 2025

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today occurred near local solar noon in the Akhiok area of southern Alaska. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II in Kodiak, Alaska and possibly Eagle River about 200 km to the northeast. The mainshock in Alaska was preceded nine hour earlier by an M 3.3 foreshock. At M 5.8 this is the strongest earthquake within about 300 km of this epicenter since an M 6.9 on October 11, 2021 and an M 6.8 on May 29, 2015. At the time this summary noted:

 

"A strong earthquake of M 6.8 hit off the Alaska Peninsula today. This is a remote area and there were no reports of major damage or tsunamis with this event. It was  reported felt with intensity IV in Alaska at South Naknek, King Salmon, and II-III in Valdez, Sterling, Soldotna, New Stuyahok, Manokotak, Kodiak, Kenai, Kasilof, Homer, Egegik, Eagle River, Dillingham, Cold Bay, Chugiak, Anchor Point an Anchorage. An aftershock of M 3.6 was felt with intensity II-III in Anchorage and Homer, Alaska. The last earthquake of M>=6.7 within about 200 km of this epicenter occurred as an M 6.8 on July 11, 2000 which, in turn, was an aftershock of an M 7.0 which occurred on December 6, 1999." (May 29, 2015)

 

Forecast 169826 had expected this event in this area was likely around February 16, 2025.

 

O: 13FEB2025 15:05:28  55.7N  154.8W ML=3.3  EMSC   SOUTH OF ALASKA

O: 13FEB2025 23:59:26  55.8N  155.2W MW=5.8  EMSC   SOUTH OF ALASKA               

P: 16FEB2025 169826    54.8N  158.7W 3.5-4.9 BABAA  Alaska Peninsula           

 

 

A moderate earthquake of M 4.2-4.3 was felt in Central California today. NEIC reported it with intensity IV in California at Avenal and Coalinga with III in Atascadero, San Miguel, Coarsegold and Antelope and II in Hanford, Maricopa, Strathmore, Visalia, Arroyo Grande, Paso Robles, Templeton, Madera, Mendota, Fresno and Stockton among others. Earthquakes of M 4.3 last occurred in this area on August 10, 2023 and December 17, 2019 but the last of significantly larger magnitude in the area within about 100 km of today's epicenter was an M 4.7 on April 15, 2014. Seismicity was analyzed for this area in previous issues of this summary as:

 

"While this summary was being written an earthquake of M 5.3 hit Central California west of Parkfield. This is not a heavily populated region of California so damage is expected to be light. Like activity in Vanuatu and Iceland this may have been promoted by the strong solar flare hours earlier. As the mainshock occurred near local midnight, a prime time for solar flare seismic triggering, promotion is likely from the major solar flares of the day. A second strong C6-7 flare was in progress when the earthquake in California occurred.

The mainshock was felt with maximum intensity V and many of the aftershocks with intensity II-III. This is the strongest earthquake to hit central California since an M 5.5 on October 31, 2007. The last large earthquake in the Parkfield area occurred on September 28, 2004 with M 6.0. No earthquake within 80 km  of this epicenter have occurred in the past 22 years with M>5.3. At this writing no serious damage or casualties have been reported.", (October 21, 2012)  

 

 

This earthquake followed 18 minutes after the M 5.8 in Alaska. The distance between these two epicenters is 31 degrees. The time for an S-wave to traverse this distance is about 18 minutes. This suggests that this earthquake of M 4.2-4.3 in the Coalinga area of California may have been triggered by the passage of the surface wave originating in Alaska through California.

 

Forecast 169717 had expected a moderate event in this area of Central California was likely around February 17, 2005.

 

O: 14FEB2025 00:17:04  36.1N  120.2W MB=4.2  EMSC   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA           

O: 14FEB2025 00:17:04  36.1N  120.2W MB=4.3  ANSS   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA           

P: 17FEB2025 169717    36.6N  120.7W 2.5-4.9 BAAAA  Central California         

 

 

A series of light earthquakes was also felt in the San Francisco Bay area of California today. The strongest of  these were of M 3.6, 3.3 and 3.2 on the Hayward Fault passing through Hayward, California. NEIC reported these earthquakes were felt with intensity IV in Los Altos, Hayward, Berkeley, Mount Hamilton, Ione, and III in Belmont, Burlingame, Los Altos, Mountain View, Sunnyvale, San Francisco, San Mateo, Alameda, Concord, Fremont, Castro Valley, Moraga, Newark, Orinda, Pleasanton, Dublin, San Leandro among others.

These began with an M 2.7 felt with intensity III in Hayward, Burlingame, Livermore among other communities in central California. NEIC reported an aftershock of M 2.4  was felt with intensity VI in California in Hayward, Castro Valley, San Lorenzo, and III in Belmont, Burlingame, Los Altos, Moss Beach, Mountain View, Redwood City, San Carlos, San Francisco, Palo Alto, San Mateo, Danville, Concord, Pleasant Hill, El Cerrito, Fremont and as far as Carlsbad, Ludlow and Los Angeles in the southland. NEIC reported in the north an M 2.3 near Clayton, California was felt in San Francisco and Concord; an M 2.5 with intensity III in San Francisco, Clayton, Fort Bragg and II in Pleasant Hill, Martinez, Orinda, San Ramon, Walnut Creek, Oakland, Concord. An M 2.4 near Bayview-Montalvin, California was reported by NEIC to have been lightly felt with intensity II in California at Pleasanton and Petaluma. Like many series in the San Francisco area, this began within minutes of local Solar Noon, a time when tidal stresses with the full moon are maximized. The strongest of these occurred of M 3.1 and M 3.2 near  local solar noon and was probably promoted

by tidal stresses which maximize near this hour with the full moon.

 

Some of these earthquakes in the San Francisco area may have been promoted by SFE associated with solar flare 3710 - a C9.0 flare that occurred near local solar noon in San Francisco. Seismic triggering on the Hayward Fault may indicate high stresses and a moderate upcoming earthquake. Data from SWPC on this flare follow.

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

3710       2216   2243      2310   C9.0      (February 13, 2025)   2.0E-02  

San Francisco M 2.2 22:24 UT, M 2.4 23:07 UT,

Papua M 4.2 22:24 UT

Oaxaca M 4.2 22:56 UT

Romania M 3.4 23:00 UT

Veracruz, Mexico M 4.2 23:10 UT

Alaska M 5.8 23:58 UT

 

Forecasts 169719 had expected these events in the San Francisco Bay area were

likely around February 12-16, 2025.

 

O: 13FEB2025 19:52:13  37.6N  122.1W ML=3.2  EMSC   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.

O: 13FEB2025 19:54:14  37.6N  122.1W ML=3.1  EMSC   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.

O: 13FEB2025 22:24:06  37.6N  122.0W MD=2.2  EMSC   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.

O: 13FEB2025 21:59:16  37.7N  122.1W ML=3.5  EMSC   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.

O: 14FEB2025 00:45:06  37.9N  122.1W MD=2.5  EMSC   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.

O: 14FEB2025 03:22:48  37.9N  122.0W MD=2.3  EMSC   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.

O: 13FEB2025 23:07:10  38.0N  122.3W ML=2.4  EMSC   SAN PABLO BAY, CALIFORNIA

O: 13FEB2025 13:03:18  37.6N  122.1W MD=2.5  EMSC   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.

P: 12FEB2025 169719    37.1N  121.5W 2.5-4.7 AAAAA  Central California         

P: 16FEB2025 169719    37.3N  121.6W 2.5-4.6 BAAAA  Central California          

 

 

An M 3.9 was also felt in northern Washington State and British Columbia, Canada today. NEIC reported this earthquake of M 3.7 in British  Columbia, Canada was felt with moderate intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of British  Columbia, Canada in Sidney, Chemainus, Duncan, Sooke, Victoria and in Washington State at Olympia (IV), Anacortes, Eastsound, Lopez Island, Point Roberts, Chimacum, Port Townsend and II in Lynnwood, Everett, Coupville, Custer, Friday Harbor, Oak Harbor, Camano Island, Stanwood, Port Angeles, Port Ludlow, Sequim, Vancouver as well as in British Columbia at Cowichan Valley, Nanaimo, Parksville, Sechelt, Walnut Grove and White Rock. EMSC reported shaking for a short period in Victoria, New Songhees, Langford, Central Saanich, North Saanich, and Delta, B.C., Canada an in Washington State in Stanwood, and Port Angeles. Earthquakes of M 3.9-4.0 have most recently occurred within about 200 km of this epicenter on Septeember 26, 2024 and December 24, 2023 but the last event of significantly

larger magnitude was an M 4.9 on December 30, 2015. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The most widely felt earthquake of the day was the M 4.9 in the Vancouver Island region on the Puget Sound west of Seattle, Washington. While reported as far as New Mexico and Indiana perceptible shaking from this event was probably limited to an area about 200 km from the epicenter. NEIC reported intensity II-III in communities throughout British Columbia and northwestern Washington State. More intense shaking of intensity IV was reported in Washington at Friday Harbor, La Conner, Lopez Island, Lummi Island, Lynden, Point Roberts, Sumas, Forks, Sekiu, Olympia, Aberdeen, and in British Columbia at Sidney, Abbotsford, Aldergrove, Cowichan Valley, Cumberland, Duncan, Fort Langley, Lillooet, Lions Vay, North Cowichan, Sooke, Vancouver, Victoria, Walnut Grove and White Rock. No major damage or injuries were reported with this earthquake.

 

The Vancouver quake today hit within an hour of local solar midnight and was probably promoted by high tidal stresses which maximize at this time. The last earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter with M>=4.8 occurred on June 10, 2001 with M 5.0. This was probably an aftershock of the M 6.8 earthquake near Olympia of February 28, 2001." (December 30, 2015)

 

This series is at the fourth node (90 degrees) from the M 7.4 in the Vanuatu Islands of February 8 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

Earthquakes in California today are near this same distance from Vanuatu.

 

Forecast 169822 had expected today's event within about 100 km was likely around

February 18, 2025.

 

O: 14FEB2025 05:59:18  48.3N  123.3W MB=3.9  ECAN OF VICTORIA, BC   

O: 14FEB2025 05:59:18  48.3N  123.3W ML=3.6  EMSC   VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGIO

P: 18FEB2025 169822    49.0N  123.0W 2.0-4.1 BAAAA  Washington state, U.S.     

 

A series of light to moderate earthquakes occurred in the Veracruz region of Mexico today. The M 4.0 in Veracruz is the strongest event in that region  since an M 4.5 on January 28, 2024.  Today's events are near the antipode of TC Taliah and may have been promoted by focused energy from that source. The antipode of this typhoon is moving to the north and west and will be in the area of Southern Texas  and Western Texas in the next two days then moving on to southern Colorado. All of these areas could see enhanced seismicity as TC Taliah moves through as noted in this and previous issues of this summary.

 

"Tropical Cyclone Taliah (14S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean south of Sumatra with winds up to 75 kts.  It is expected to track to the west and south over the next several days and could have moderate effect on earthquakes in western and central Indonesia in the next several days. The antipode at 22N 93W is north of, Mexico. It is possible that this area of Central America will see additional enhanced seismicity while Taliah is active." (February 12-14, 2025)

 

O: 13FEB2025 10:54:04  17.7N   95.4W ML=3.5  EMSC   VERACRUZ, MEXICO

O: 13FEB2025 07:04:48  17.5N   94.9W ML=4.0  EMSC   VERACRUZ, MEXICO             

O: 13FEB2025 23:10:52  19.5N   95.0W ML=4.0  EMSC   OFFSHORE VERACRUZ, MEXICO    

P: 15FEB2025 169663    18.0N   95.0W 3.5-5.3 AAAAA  Chiapas, Mexico            

 

 

An unusually large M 3.7 was felt in the Virgin Islands today. NEIC reported intensity II-III in the Virgin Islands at Road Town, Tortola and in Puerto Rico at Gurabo and Carolina. The Virgin Islands is another area where antipodal triggering may be occurring. In this case the tropical cyclone is Zelia which is hitting the northwest of Australia at this time. Several earthquake occurred at the antipode to  Zelia today and may have been promoted by focused energy from that typhoon as noted in this and previous issues of this report:

 

"Tropical Cyclone Zelia (18S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean north of western Australia with winds up to 160 kts.  It is expected to track to the south over the next several days. The antipode at 19N  62W is in the northern Caribbean near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.  Antipodal focusing of energy from this storm could help promote a moderate to strong earthquake in that area in the next couple of days. A moderate earthquake near Puerto Rico seems likely in the next week." (February 12-14, 2025)

 

Enhanced seismicity in this area of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico is

expected in the next several days as TC Zelia makes landfall in Australia.

 

O: 13FEB2025 21:07:15  18.6N   64.7W MD=3.7  EMSC   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION        

P: 13FEB2025 169670    19.0N   63.0W 3.0-5.1 AABAA  Leeward Islands            

P: 16FEB2025 169670    18.0N   65.0W 3.0-5.0 BAAAA  Leeward Islands            

 

 

QUIET DAY WITH FULL MOON BUT WATCHES STILL IN EFFECT

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 12, 2025

 

Today was a relatively quiet day in global seismicity. The largest event was an M 5.3 in the South Sandwich Islands. The largest event felt occurred in northeastern Honshu, Japan. The series in the Dodecanese Islands took a lull with much less activity than usual but saw an M 5.1 and 4.6 among today's limited number of events.

 

In the U.S. and possessions  an M 3.3 followed a series of events in California yesterday which included an M 4.1 and an M 4.5. The swarm in Yellowstone ceased. There is some danger of enhanced seismicity in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands however. Tropical Cyclone Zelia off northwestern Australia has expanded into a major storm with winds up to 160 kts. Zelia is antipodal to the northeastern Caribbean including the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The area of Puerto Rico saw enhanced seismicity today after several days of reduced earthquakes. It is likely that this renewal of seismicity in  this region is promoted by antipodally focused energy from TC Zelia and could lead to a larger event in the next several days in the northeastern  Caribbean. The strongest event in that area today was an M 3.6. 

 

Readers should also be reminded that there is still a seismic watch out for the area of the west coast of the U.S. including Alaska and California. This was noted in previous issues of this summary as:

 

 

"Following the massive fires in January and February, 2005, this summary began watching seismicity of this region. As energy from TC Vince matches the  full moon and energy from the M 7.6 in the Cayman Islands at about the right time for unloading effects from the fires, conditions in Southern California (Simi Valley, L.A. California is at the 10th node (36.0 degrees) from the Cayman Islands epicenter)and northern Baja and the Gulf of California appear to be optimized in mid-February to trigger a moderate (or possibly large) earthquake in that area in the coming week." (February 9-10, 2025).

 

This is emphasized as a strong storm hit the northeast over the past day. Such storms often accompany enhanced seismicity in California or Alaska as noted in many previous issues of this summary. This watch was later extended to northern California and eventually to Alaska and is in effect for two  more days. A seismic watch is called when environmental conditions in an area could induce enhanced seismicity in a limited time period.

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.4 in British Columbia, Canada. The last earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter in British Columbia of M>=4.4 occurred on August 17, 2015 with M 4.6. Two other earthquake of M>=4.6 have hit in this area in the past 35 years - an  M 5.3 on April 14, 2001 and an M 5.0 on December 26, 1992. In August, 2015  this summary noted in this regard:

 

 

 

"The strongest earthquakes in the U.S. or Canada today occurred in British Columbia, Canada as an M 4.3-4.5  west of Fort St. John and an M 4.9 in the Vancouver Island region. The earthquake near Fort St. John was remote and there were few reports of felt activity, but Earthquakes Canada did report it was felt in Charlie Lake, British Columbia. There was no damage reported. The last earthquake of M>=4.3 within about 200 km of this epicenter occurred on May 22, 1994 with M 4.3. The only other such event in the past 25 years was an M 5.0 on December 26, 1992. Both of these occurred about 150 km southeast of today's epicenter." (August 17, 2015)

 

This epicenter is near the seventh node (51 degrees) from the M 7.6 in the Cayman Islands of February 8 and may have been promoted by energy from that source. Other activity at this distance from the Cayman Islands today occurred near Vancouver, British Columbia.

 

The earthquake is located at the fifth node (72 degrees) from the M 6.8 in Kyushu of January 13, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 169828 had expected this event within about 100 km was likely around February 13, 2025.

 

 

O: 12FEB2025 08:47:53  56.9N  122.1W ML=4.4  EMSC   BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA     

P: 13FEB2025 169828    56.0N  122.0W 2.0-4.3 AAAAA  Alberta                    

 

 

MODERATE QUAKES SHAKES NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 11, 2025

 

 

An earthquake of M 4.5 was widely felt in Northern California today. This event was reported by NEIC to have been felt with intensity up to IV in California at Rio Dell; III in Mendocino, Eureka, Ferndale, Fortuna, Hydesville, Loleta, Myers Flat, Petrolia, Scotia, Redcrest, Leggett, Whitethorn and II in Fort Bragg, Eureka, McKinleyville, Arcata, Bayside, Carlotta, Garberville, Redway and Trinidad. A foreshock closer to the coast of California occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and may have been promoted by tidal stresses which maximize near this hour with today's full moon. NEIC reported this earthquake was felt with intensity up to IV in Ferndale, Scotia; III in Fremont, Hayward, Morgan Hill, Linden, Eureka, Alderpoint, Carlotta, Fortuna, Loleta, Myers Flat, Petrolia, Rio Dell and II in Castro Valley, Eureka, Arcata, Garberville, Hydesville and Whitethorn, California. The felt reports around the San Francisco area may have been mistakenly attributed to the M 4.1 off northern California. An M 2.4 earthquake in the San Francisco Bay area of California followed 3.5 minutes after the M 4.1 off northern California. Earlier foreshocks of M 2.6 and M 2.8 were lightly felt in northern California.

 

The M 4.5 off northern California is the strongest event in that region since an M 5.3 on December 15, 2024 - an aftershock of the M 7.0 of December 5, 2024, as is today's. At the time of the mainshock this summary noted:

 

 

"A major earthquake of M 7.0-7.3 occurred on December 5, 2024 near local noon off the coast of Northern California. It was followed by a series of moderate felt classical aftershocks and a series of regional aftershocks. A pair of foreshocks occurred on December 4, 2024 and were described in this summary in the previous issue as:

 

"The strongest earthquakes in the U.S. or Canada today were an M 4.4 and M 4.2 off the coast of northern California. NEIC reported they may have been felt lightly in Eureka and Arcata, and at Orick and Antelope with intensity II-III in  California. The M 4.4 is the strongest event within about 100 km of this epicenter since an M 4.4 on October 24. The only other event of M>=4.4 in this area in the past year was and M 4.9 on February 2, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"An earthquake of M 4.9 also occurred today off the coast of Northern California. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III in Northern California at Petrolia. NEIC reported an aftershock of M 3.4 off the coast of Northern California  was felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of Northern California in Petrolia. NEIC reported this earthquake of M 3.4 off the coast of Northern California  was felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of Northern California in Petrolia. EMSC reported moderate shaking in Fortuna, California.  A foreshock of M 2.7-3.3 was also felt lightly in Petrolia, California. The last earthquake off the coast of Northern California with M>=4.9 occurred on May 21, 2023 and today's event is probably an aftershock of that mainshock." (December 5, 2024)

 

This epicenter is at 104 degrees from the M 7.1 in Tibet January  7, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 169804 had expected a moderate event within about 25 km of this epicenter was likely around February 12.

 

O: 11FEB2025 08:13:16  40.3N  124.6W Mw=3.8  EMSC   OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 11FEB2025 11:20:11  40.3N  124.6W MD=2.6  EMSC   OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 11FEB2025 14:34:41  40.3N  125.1W MD=2.5  EMSC   OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 11FEB2025 18:55:29  40.3N  125.0W MD=2.3  EMSC   OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 11FEB2025 19:13:40  40.3N  124.9W MD=2.6  EMSC   OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 12FEB2025 07:01:46  40.3N  124.7W MD=2.6  EMSC   OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 11FEB2025 14:24:28  40.4N  124.9W MD=2.8  EMSC   OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 12FEB2025 04:32:40  40.4N  125.1W MW=4.5  EMSC   OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 

P: 12FEB2025 169804    40.5N  125.3W 2.5-4.4 AAAAA  Off Coast of No. Calif     

 

 

The M 2.4 in San Francisco at 3.3 degrees from the M 4.1 off northern California, both within minutes of local solar midnight. Surface waves from the M 4.1 would have arrived in this area as the M 2.4 was occurring and may have  triggered it. A similar situation occurred minutes later when a swarm occurred in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming. NEIC reported this event was felt with intensity up to III in California at Hayward, Castro Valley and San Leandro and Union City with II in Sausalito, California.

 

Forecast 169719 had expected this event within about 50 km was likely

Around February 12, 2025.

 

O: 11FEB2025 08:16:54  37.6N  122.1W MD=2.4  EMSC   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.

P: 12FEB2025 169719    37.1N  121.5W 2.5-4.7 AAAAA  Central California         

 

A strong series of minor earthquakes also occurred today in the Yellowstone

National Park area, Wyoming. These were not reported felt. They began about 7 minutes after the event off northern California with an M 0.9 but were quickly followed by events of M 2.6, 2.3, 2.1, 2.4, .....  The swarm was over within about an hour and did not repeat at local solar noon later in the day, as might have been expected if it was related to the full moon tides of February 12, 2025. Surface waves from the M 4.1 off northern  California at a distance of 11 degrees would have arrived about the time this swarm in Yellowstone began and may have triggered it.

 

The area of Yellowstone is nearly antipodal to the dissipation point of Tropical Cyclone Vince in the South Indian Ocean and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Several events to the east of this epicenter have occurred in the past  two days. These appear to be related to mining or blasting activity in the area as this and a series of similar event of M 3.0-3.1 have hit the area since December,

2024.

 

 

O:  9FEB2025 14:39:27  41.6N  109.9W ML=3.0  EMSC   WYOMING                      

P:  7FEB2025 169504    41.9N  108.7W 2.0-3.9 AAAAA  Colorado area              

 

The last earthquake in Yellowstone with M>=2.6 occurred on January 29 with M 3.7.  At the time this summary noted:

 

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 3.9-4.0 in the region of Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming. NEIC reported it was felt in the Yellowstone area with intensity III in Gardiner, West Yellowstone, Montana and Yellowstone National Park. This event occurred in the Norris Geyser Basin, one of the oldest and most visited areas of Yellowstone where hot geysers commonly erupt. This earthquake, like that in New Zealand (see above) occurred at 105 degrees from the M 7.1 in Tibet of January 7, 2025 and was probably promoted by energy from that source. The last earthquake of M>=4.0 in the Yellowstone area occurred ten years ago as an M 4.8 on March 30, 2014. Like today's event that earthquake occurred with the new moon." (January 29, 2025)

 

Note that today's swarm is also closely linked to the full moon of February 12.

 

Forecast 169824 had expected today's activity in Yellowstone was likely within  about 25 km around February 12, 2025.

 

O: 11FEB2025 08:35:56  44.4N  110.6W ML=2.2  EMSC   YELLOWSTONE NAT. PARK, WYOMING

O: 11FEB2025 08:38:45  44.4N  110.5W ML=2.1  EMSC   YELLOWSTONE NAT. PARK, WYOMING

O: 11FEB2025 08:44:07  44.4N  110.5W ML=2.4  EMSC   YELLOWSTONE NAT. PARK, WYOMING

O: 11FEB2025 08:52:36  44.4N  110.5W ML=2.1  EMSC   YELLOWSTONE NAT. PARK, WYOMING

O: 11FEB2025 10:38:08  44.4N  110.6W ML=2.1  EMSC   YELLOWSTONE NAT. PARK, WYOMING

O: 11FEB2025 08:35:13  44.2N  110.4W ML=2.6  EMSC   YELLOWSTONE NAT. PARK, WYOMING

P: 12FEB2025 169824    44.2N  110.3W 2.0-4.1 AAAAA  Yellowstone/Wyoming        

 

The most widely felt earthquake in the world today was an M 4.6 (NEIC) to M 5.0 (EMSC) in Croatia. NEIC reported maximum intensity V in Zadar, Croatia at Policnik, Posedarje, Zadar and IV in Urbisaglia, Marken, Italy. It was also felt with intensity III in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Giulia, Italy, Croatia, Slovenia and the Czech Republic. EMSC reported moderate Shaking in Croatia at Starigrad, Seline, Slivnica, Lovinac, Tribanj, Posedarje, Radovin, Novigrad, Obrovac among others and as far as Hungary and Montenegro, Belgrade, Serbia and Naples, Italy.

This continues enhanced seismicity throughout much of eastern Europe which  has included in the past week a swarm in the Dodecanese Islands, an M 5.0 in Sicily, Several moderate earthquakes in northern and Central Greece and Romania and  an M 5.0 in Gibraltar. Many of these area near the fourth node from the M 7.6 in the Cayman Islands of February 8, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

This earthquake in Croatia occurred about 3 minutes after a M 4.5 earthquake was felt in the Dodecanese Islands and may have been promoted by seismic waves from that source. This epicenter is at 144 degrees from the M 7.4 in Vanuatu of December 17, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

The strongest earthquake in the Dodecanese series today occurred with M 5.1, with smaller events continuing unabated. EMSC reported the M 5.2 today was felt with moderate intensity in Greece at Agios Georgios, Milos, Agios Nikolaos, Crete, Heraklion, Chania, Gerani, Cholargos, Athens, Irakleio, Ilion, Agioi Anargyroi, and Acharnes.

 

O: 11FEB2025 12:34:13  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 12FEB2025 01:14:55  36.6N   25.6E Mw=5.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 12FEB2025 01:35:08  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 12FEB2025 02:06:56  36.6N   25.6E mb=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 12FEB2025 02:14:20  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.5  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 12FEB2025 02:18:24  36.6N   25.6E ML=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 12FEB2025 02:23:11  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 11FEB2025 07:17:19  36.7N   25.8E mb=4.8  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 11FEB2025 11:30:25  36.7N   25.8E mb=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 11FEB2025 14:19:51  36.7N   25.8E Mw=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 11FEB2025 15:10:59  36.7N   25.7E mb=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 11FEB2025 17:40:19  36.7N   25.8E mb=4.5  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 11FEB2025 18:39:29  36.7N   25.9E ML=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 11FEB2025 20:53:26  36.7N   25.8E mb=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 11FEB2025 21:25:28  36.7N   25.8E ML=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 12FEB2025 01:12:41  36.7N   25.8E mb=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 12FEB2025 04:21:03  36.7N   25.7E mb=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 11FEB2025 11:43:55  36.6N   25.8E MW=4.9  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE   

O: 11FEB2025 11:43:55  36.6N   25.8E MW=4.9  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE   

P: 12FEB2025 169709    36.0N   25.0E 3.0-5.6 AAAAA  Aegean Sea                 

 

The Croatian earthquake is the strongest within about 200 km of that epicenter since an M 4.8 on February 9, 2023, two year ago. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

 

"An earthquake of M 4.8 occurred today in the region of Croatia. This event was reported by NEIC to have been felt with maximum intensity in Croatia at Crikvenica and IV in Premantura with IV in Rijeka, Croatia. Intensity II-III was reported felt in Pula and Zagreb, Croatia and in Slovenia, Italy, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Slovenia. This appears to be related to the recent activation of the area following the major earthquakes of M 7.8 and 7.5 to the southeast on February 6 in Turkey. This activation most recently hit Romania with an M 5.0 followed by an M 5.7 a day later. Those events caused minor damage in southern Romania. The current hostilities and related ground motions in Ukraine are about 1500 km to the east  of this activity and may also have had an effect in activating seismicity in the general region. Statistical studies over the years have shown increased seismicity surrounding war zone, but this apparent statistical relation is not thoroughly explained.

 

Today's M 4.8 in Croatia is the strongest within about 200 km in Croatia since an M 4.9 on February 5, 2007.  It occurred near local solar noon and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses which maximize near this hour." (February 16, 2023)

 

This epicenter is at 144 degrees from the M 7.4 in the Vanuatu Islands

December 17, 2024 and at the fourth node (90 degrees) from the M 7.0 in Northern California of December 5, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.

 

Forecasts 169510, 169776 and 169786 had expected enhanced seismicity in this

region was likely between February 7 and 13, 2025.

 

O: 11FEB2025 17:43:00  44.4N   15.5E MW=4.6  EMSC   CROATIA                      

P:  7FEB2025 169510    44.0N   16.0E 3.0-5.4 BAAAA  Italy                      

P: 12FEB2025 169786    44.0N   14.0E 3.0-5.3 AAAAA  Italy                      

P: 13FEB2025 169776    44.0N   15.0E 3.0-5.2 AAAAA  Adriatic Sea               

 

An eruption of Mt. Etna in Sicily was reinvigorated today following the M 5.0  earthquake in Sicily two days ago. Spectacular clips of this eruption and lava flow can be viewed on the web.

 

A swarm of minor earthquakes has been occurring under Mount Spurr near Anchorage

Alaska. These began in April, 2024 with the solar eclipse of April 8, 2024 but ramped up in October 2024 suggesting a plutonic episode in progress. Mt. Spurr could erupt if this seismic activity continues.

 

 

 

 

MODERATE EARTHQUAKE SHAKES GIBRALTAR

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 10, 2025

 

 

A moderate earthquake of M 4.9 (EMSC) to M 5.1 (NEIC) occurred today in the area of the Strait of Gibraltar near local solar midnight. NEIC reported it was widely felt in Morroco with maximum intensity IV in Tetouan, Tangier, Casablanca, Berrechid, Fes, Fez, Sefrou, Kenitra, Souk El Arbaa, III in Azrou, Meknes, Rabat, Skhirate, Tanger, Benslimane, El Jadida, Khemisset, Chefchaouen, and II in Faro, Portugal. This is an unusual epicenter for the Strait of Gibraltar area being about 200 km west of the usual events of M>=4.9 in the area. There have been no other events with M>=4.9 within 200 km of today's epicenter in the past 35 years. A series of events starting with an M 6.4 about 200 km east of today's epicenter occurred beginning on February 24, 2004 and had been discussed in this summary at the time as:

 

 

"The strongest event of the day was an M 6.5-6.6 that occurred north of Morocco in the region of the Strait of Gibraltar. This earthquake was felt strongly in the region of Alhucemas, Morocco and was followed by a strong aftershock sequence according to the Instituto Geographico Nacional en Madrid, Spain. Associated Press had indicated that at least forty-two were killed and an additional 40 injured in this earthquake, however the death toll is expected

to reach several hundred. Rescue is slow due to the remoteness of the area. The village of Ait Kamara about 14 km south of the epicenter was completely destroyed with at least 15 killed in that village alone. Two other villages - Im-Zouren and Bni-Hadifa were also badly hit. Twenty more were killed in Al Hoceima province. The quake was also felt in the tourist city of Fez and in the interior and Taza. An earthquake of M6.0-6.2 hit Agadir, Morocco about 800 km to the southwest on Feb. 29, 1960 killing about 13,100 people and causing up to $120 million damage which was extreme.  A strong earthquake of M 6.9 also hit the region about 500 km to the east in Tunisia on May 21, 2003. That earthquake killed at least 2,266 people while injuring 10, 261 and destroying more than 1,200 homes. This is the strongest event in the region (30-40N 10W-3E) since an earthquake of M 7.7 that occurred on Oct. 10, 1980. That earthquake occurred near Al Asnam, Algeria and killed up to 5,000 in that city while injuring 90000. The largest event in the Strait of Gibraltar area in the past 50 years was an M 6.2-6.9 that occurred on March 15, 1964 two weeks before the great Alaska earthquake that occurred on March 28, 1964 with Mw 9.6. A strong earthquake of M 7.0 occurred in the area at deep focus of 657 km on March 29, 1954, ten years earlier but did little damage. The strongest earthquake within 150 km of this epicenter at shallow depth occurred on Christmas Day (Dec. 25), 1884 and killed 745 in the Arenas del Rey, Vega, Alhama and Malaga areas of Spain while doing severe damage throughout the region." (February 24, 2004)

 

Likewise when an M 6.3 hit further to the east on January 25, 2016, this summary noted:

 

"A strong earthquake also hit the region of Gibraltar, This earthquake of M 6.1 is unprecedented in modern seismicity of the region. NEIC reported it was felt with moderate intensity in Spain, Gibraltar and Morocco. The strongest intensity of V was felt in Melilla and Cartama, Malaga, Spain; in Fez and Nador, Morocco. Intensity IV was reported in Morocco from Imzouren, Oujda, and in Spain at Torremolinos, Nerja, Benahavis, with lesser shaking of II-III in Spain in the region of Aolmeria at Roquitaas de Mar; in Cadiz at San Roque; in Cordoba at Puente Genil; at Granada at Granada, Maracena and Salar; in Huelva, in Malaga at Manilva, Marbella, Mijas, Moclinejo, Malaga, Ojen; in Gibraltar with intensity III and in Morocco at Casablanca, Rabat, Tetouan, Al Hoceima and Taza.

The mainshock of M 6.1 was followed by an energetic aftershock sequence including moderate earthquakes of M 5.3, 5.0, 4,6, 5.1 and 5.3. A tsunami was not expected with this series of earthquakes. The only previous earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter with M>=6.1 in the past 25 years was an M 6.3 about 200 km north of today's epicenter. That earthquake, unlike today's shallow focus of about 10 km, occurred with a hypocenter at 610 km and was not strongly felt on the surface. That earthquake was felt lightly as far as Great Britain and also was associated with tidal triggering as noted in this summary at the time" (January 25, 2016)

 

 

This epicenter is at 103 degrees from the M 6.8 in Kyushu, Japan of January 13, 2025 in the far-field forecast for that event and specifically on January 31 as:

 

"A series of minor earthquakes been occurring in the Strait of Gibraltar over the past several days. These are not unusual but the magnitude of the largest event in the series appears to be increasing each day. These events, like a series in the eastern U.S. in Texas, New York, Maine, etc are located at 103 degrees from the M 6.8 in Kyushu, Japan of January 13. A stronger event in Gibraltar is possible at this time." (January 31, 2025)

 

Forecasts 169458 and 169734 had expected enhanced seismicity in the region of the Strait of Gibraltar was likely between Febury 4 and 12, 2025.

 

O: 10FEB2025 22:48:40  35.1N    5.7W MB=5.1  EMSC   STRAIT OF GIBRALTAR          

P:  4FEB2025 169458    37.0N    6.0W 3.5-5.1 AAAAA  Morocco/Spain              

P: 12FEB2025 169734    37.0N    4.0W 3.5-6.1 AAAAA  Morocco/Spain              

P: 16FEB2025 169734    37.0N   10.0W 3.5-5.3 AAAAA  Morocco/Spain              

 

Tropical Cyclone Vince, which has been linked in this summary to a series of antipodal earthquakes in the last week is likely to change direction and  track to the south but to maintain much of its energy in doing so. The latest models of this southward path is antipodal to the Gulf of California, Baja and perhaps Southern California around February 12-13, 2025.  The model does not have this storm antipodal to the Los Angeles area as it currently stands, but the path could remain further to the west than anticipated and would be antipodal to southern and northern California around February 12-13.

 

The quake in Gibraltar was also located near the fifth node (72 degrees) from the M 7.6 in the Cayman Islands two days ago and may have been promoted by energy from that source. It followed an M 5.0 in the Dodecanese Islands after 11 minutes. This is the time a surface wave from Greece would take to traverse the 25 degree distance between these two epicenter and it is likely the surface wave from Greece triggered the subsequent event in Gibraltar.

 

The surface wave from the M 5.0 in the Dodecanese Islands also appears to have triggered an M 4.6 about 300 km northeast of its epicenter about 35 seconds later in the area near Athens, Greece. This was probably triggered by S- P- or surface waves which all arrive at the second epicenter about that time. This  epicenter is at the fourth node from the Cayman Islands - 90.0 degrees and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

The last earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter in Greece occurred as an M 4.9 on January 6, 2025. This epicenter is at 144 degrees from the M 7.4 in Vanuatu of December 17, 2024 and at the fourth node (90 degrees) from the Cayman Islands M 7.6 of February 8 and may have been promoted by energy from those sources. A similar M 3.8 in Romania today was at this distance from the Cayman Islands.

 

Forecast 169460 had expected this event within about 100 km was likely around

February 7, 2025.

 

O: 10FEB2025 22:38:00  38.1N   22.0E ML=4.6  EMSC   GREECE                       

P:  7FEB2025 169460    38.0N   21.0E 3.0-4.7 BAAAA  No. Greece                 

 

It was an active 13 minutes of global seismicity between 22:37 and 22:50 UT.

Other unusual earthquake in this time frame occurred as an M 4.7 in Jujuy, Argentina and as an M 3.4 in the Canary Islands about 500 km south of Gibraltar and 1.5 minutes after the Gibraltar event as the P- or S-wave arrived at that epicenter in the Canary Islands. This event may be an error in the automatic location algorithm used by many networks. The last earthquake in the Canary Islands located within about 200 km of this M 3.4 with equal or greater magnitude occurred on April 4, 2021 with M 4.2 and prior to that as an M 4.7 on November 8, 2008.

 

The M 5.1 in the Dodecanese Islands today was reported by NEIC to have been felt with intensity up to VII in Jamarion, Kiklades, Greece and V in Ios and IV in Akharnai, Attiki and Izmir, Turkey. Lesser intensity was felt as far as 250 km from the epicenter. This continues the strong series of earthquakes in the Dodecanese Islands. Indications are that this series is beginning to decline and may cease in the next several days.

 

Forecasts 169438 and 169709 had expected this continuing activity in the

Dodecanese Islands was likely around February 9-12, 2025.

 

O: 10FEB2025 10:27:33  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 10FEB2025 13:14:34  36.6N   25.7E Mw=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 10FEB2025 22:37:25  36.6N   25.7E Mw=5.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 10FEB2025 22:51:05  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 11FEB2025 00:02:58  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 11FEB2025 03:47:32  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 11FEB2025 05:36:11  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 11FEB2025 05:43:48  36.6N   25.9E mb=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 11FEB2025 07:17:18  36.6N   25.8E mb=4.8  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 10FEB2025 11:23:18  36.7N   25.8E mb=4.8  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 10FEB2025 13:31:58  36.7N   25.7E ML=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 10FEB2025 20:16:29  36.7N   25.7E Mw=5.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 10FEB2025 21:35:45  36.7N   25.7E ML=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 10FEB2025 21:37:35  36.7N   25.8E mb=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 10FEB2025 22:44:29  36.7N   25.7E ML=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 11FEB2025 02:46:50  36.7N   25.8E mb=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 11FEB2025 05:14:31  36.7N   25.8E ML=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 11FEB2025 05:50:38  36.7N   25.8E ML=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 11FEB2025 05:58:45  36.7N   25.8E Mw=4.8  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 11FEB2025 06:00:29  36.7N   25.8E ML=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 11FEB2025 06:39:57  36.7N   25.8E mb=4.9  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 11FEB2025 06:50:17  36.7N   25.8E ML=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 10FEB2025 08:20:26  36.6N   25.6E MW=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE   

P:  9FEB2025 169438    35.0N   25.0E 3.0-5.5 AAAAA  Aegean Sea                 

P: 12FEB2025 169709    36.0N   25.0E 3.0-5.6 AAAAA  Aegean Sea                 

 

 

In previous issues of this summary updates on the seismic potential of southern California at this time was discussed as:

 

"Following the massive fires in January and February, 2005, this summary began watching seismicity of this region. As energy from TC Vince matches the  full moon and energy from the M 7.6 in the Cayman Islands at about the right time for unloading effects from the fires, conditions in Southern California (Simi Valley, L.A. California is at the 10th node (36.0 degrees) from the Cayman Islands epicenter)and northern Baja and the Gulf of California appear to be optimized in mid-February to trigger a moderate (or possibly large) earthquake in that area in the coming week." (February 9-10, 2025).

 

TC Vince is approaching the area of the South Indian Ocean at 32S 74E at this writing. An unusual earthquake of M 5.4 hit at this epicenter early on February 11, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from TC Vince. This earthquake is  somewhat unusual. Although it lies on the seismic active Mid-Indian Ridge, the last event within about 250 km of this epicenter of M>=5.4 occurred more than 35 years ago. The only similar event within about 500 km in this time frame occurred as an M 5.5 on May 8, 2020. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.5 on the Mid-Indian Ridge. It was not reported felt in this remote epicentral area. The last earthquake of M>=5.5 within about 500 km of this epicenter in the Indian Ocean occurred as an M 5.7 about 500 km northwest of today's epicenter on March 26, 2009. Similar earthquakes hit that epicenter on March 14, 2005, January 1, 2002 and August 28, 1999 but there have been no recorded earthquakes within 400 km of today's epicenter in the past 30 years." (May 8, 2020)

 

 

Forecasts 159606 and 169874 had expected today's event was likely within this area around February 5-13, 2025.

 

O: 11FEB2025 05:00:27  32.2S   75.1E MB=5.4  EMSC   MID-INDIAN RIDGE             

P:  5FEB2025 169606    37.0S   79.0E 4.0-5.4 CCCAA  So. Indian Ocean           

P: 13FEB2025 169874    32.0S   74.0E 4.0-5.5 AAAAA  So. Indian Ocean           

 

A set of three light earthquakes rocked the area of eastern Los Angeles, California today.  These events of M 3.6, 3.6 and 3.0 were reported by the press which emphasized they are worrying local inhabitants as they are located on the San Andreas Fault, a fault capable of strong to major earthquakes. The largest of today's earthquakes occurred with M 3.6. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to IV in California at Chino, Crestline; III in Adelanto, Grand Terrace, Big Bear City, Bloomington, Blue Jay, Cedar Glen, Cedarpines, Colton, Fontana, Highland, Lake Arrowhead, Loma Linda, Lucerne Valley, Redlands, Rialto, Running Springs, Skyforest, San Bernardino, Riverside, Moreno Valley, Perris, Winchester, Huntington Beach, Norco, with lesser shaking throughout much of the Los Angeles area. No major damage was reported with these earthquakes.

 

The M 3.6 is the strongest event in eastern Los Angeles, California since an

M 4.0 on October 6, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"NEIC reported the M 4.0-4.2 earthquake in Los Angeles today was felt with maximum intensity V in Southern California at Ontario, Chino, IV in Mira Loma, Rancho Cucamonga, Montclair, Upland, Fontana, Norco, Corona, Riverside, Chino Hills, Pomona, West Covina, Santa Ana, Westminster, Hawaiian Gardens, La Canada Flintridge, Huntington Beach, Long Beach, Los Angeles and Ramona and with intensity III as far as 120 km from the epicenter at Ludlow and San Diego. The last earthquake within about 50 km of today's epicenter in Los Angeles of equal or greater magnitude was an M 4.1 on May 1, 2024. Similar events in the area during 2024 occurred with M 4.2 on January 4, 2024 and January 25, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

“A moderate earthquake of M 4.2 was widely felt with some minor damage and strong shaking in the region of Southern California near San Bernardino today. NEIC reported maximum shaking in San Bernardino with intensity up to V.

EMSC reported moderate to strong shaking in Southern California was felt in San Bernardino, Colton, Loma Linda, Rialto, Riverside, Fontana, Highland, Redlands, Jurupa Valley, Moreno Valley, Rancho Cucamonga, Mentone, Mira Loma, Ontario, Yucaipa, Norco among others. This continues a series of moderate earthquakes that began with the arrival of the year 2024 and has included most recently an M 4.3 on August 29, 2018 and a similar event of 4.2 on January 5, 2024.

At the time this summary noted:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.2-4.4 in the region of eastern Los Angeles, California. NEIC reported this earthquake of M 4.2 in Los Angeles, California was felt with intensity up to V in the area(s) of Los Angeles, California in Lytle Creek.  EMSC reported moderate to strong shaking in the region of Los Angeles was felt in Fontana, Phelan, Rancho Cucamonga, Pinon Hills, Muscoy, Rialto, Crestline, Upland, Bloomington, Hesperia, Rialto, San Bernardino, Colton, Mountain View Acres, Glen Avon, Lake Arrowhead, Ontario, Glen Avon, Montclair, Highland and as far as Hollywood, Torrance nearly 100 km from the epicenter. This event follows a similar M 4.2 in the Rancho Palos Verdes area of California." (October 6, 2024)

 

Forecast 169479 had expected today's activity within about 25 km was likely

around February 9, 2025.

 

O: 10FEB2025 17:48:52  34.2N  117.3W ML=3.0  EMSC   GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIF.

O: 11FEB2025 05:58:53  34.2N  117.3W ML=3.3  EMSC   GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIF.

O: 10FEB2025 17:44:55  34.2N  117.3W ML=3.4  EMSC   GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALI

O: 10FEB2025 17:44:55  34.2N  117.3W ML=3.6  ANSS   GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALI

P:  9FEB2025 169479    34.3N  117.5W 2.5-4.8 AAAAA  So. California             

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.1 off the coast of northern California was felt with moderate intensity up to IV in the area(s) of northern California in Ferndale and Scotia; III in Fremont, Hayward, Alderpoint, Carlotta, Fortuna, Loleta, Meyers Flat, Petrolia and Rio Dell and II in Castro Valley, Eureka, Garberville, Hydesville and Whitethorn. An earlier event of M 2.8 was reported with intensity II in Eureka, California.

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.5 south of Alaska in the Unimak Island area. This is the strongest earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter south of Alaska since an M 4.9 on October 5, 2024.

 

Forecast 169847 had expected this event within about 100 km was likely around

February 14, 2025.

 

O: 11FEB2025 01:09:51  53.9N  161.6W MB=4.5  EMSC   SOUTH OF ALASKA              

P: 14FEB2025 169847    54.7N  161.2W 3.5-4.9 BAAAA  Unimak Islands, Aleutians  

 

 

CAYMAN ISLANDS FAR-FIELD AFTERSHOCKS DOMINATE

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 9, 2025

 

Today's global seismicity was dominated by earthquakes that appear to be far-field aftershocks from the M 7.6 yesterday in the Cayman Islands, Caribbean. These locations were identified in the previous issue of this summary and are listed below. Added to that list is a "*" to locations which have already seen moderate earthquakes since the Cayman Islands event.

 

The most unusual of these far-field events today following the Cayman Islands was an  M 4.9 in Yemen. Before beginning this discussion, however, it should be noted that while NEIC initially listed this event with phase returns and was joined by seismic network, BUD, there may be some question about the occurrence of this event. Since then NEIC has removed this event from their listing and EMSC is the only major network still showing it. This could result by interference from wave forms from other events, the strong flare at the time of the Yemen event or by mislocation by automatic locating systems, but both NEIC and BUD indicate it was manually located. This is the strongest event in Yemen within about 100 km  of this epicenter since an M 5.1 on May 15, 2019 but no earthquakes within about 100 km of today's epicenter of equal of larger magnitude have been recorded in the past 35 years.

 

Today's Yemen earthquake occurred at 120.0 degrees from the Cayman Islands epicenter and was likely a FFA from that event at the third node. Readers may recall that the Cayman Islands event was also at 120,0 degrees from the M 6.8 in Kyushu of  January 13, 2025. In the immediate aftermath of the M 7.6 in the Caribbean, the third node today was especially active. In addition to the Yemen event moderate quakes hit near this third node in Afghanistan, Solomon Islands, New Britain,  and Xizang, China.

 

Forecast 169406 had expected regional seismic enhancement was likely near Yemen in the Gulf of Aden in early February, 2025.

 

O: 10FEB2025 00:20:49  13.1N   45.8E MB=4.9  EMSC   NEAR THE COAST OF YEMEN      

P:  4FEB2025 169406    13.0N   51.0E 3.5-5.2 CACAA  Gulf of Aden               

 

The event in Yemen followed an M 5.8-5.9 in Vanuatu near local solar noon, the largest earthquake in the world today and was followed by an M 5.4 in the Solomon Islands eight minutes later. The earthquakes in Yemen and the Solomon Islands are both at the third node from the Cayman Islands. A P-diff seismic wave originating in Vanuatu may have been in the area of the Yemen quake at the time of this later occurrence, but this seems unlikely. Other earthquakes within about 15 minutes of the Yemen event today of significance occurred as a second M 5.4 in Vanuatu; an M 4.0 in Bali, Indonesia, and an M 5.4 in the Solomon Islands. These moderate earthquakes may have been triggered by the occurrence of the strongest solar flare in the past two days an M1.1 flare which began about 23:50 UT on February 9 as a smaller event but continued beginning with the Yemen earthquake reaching a peak several Minutes later at the time of the Solomon Islands event. Preliminary SWPC data for this flare follow:

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

XXXX       0010   0038      0130   M1.1      (February 10, 2025)   1.1E-02  

Vanuatu M 5.8 00:10 UT

Yemen M 4.9 00:21 UT

Bali M 4.0 00:25 UT

Solomon Is. M 5.4 00:28 UT

Puerto Rico M 3.8 00:43 UT

 

 

NEIC reported the earthquakes of M 5.9 and M 5.4 in Vanuatu were felt with moderate intensity up to V in the area(s) of  Vanuatu at Vila Shefa.

 

Forecast 169584 had expected the Vanuatu event was likely in early February within about 50 km of today's M 5.8 (and aftershocks) in Vanuatu.

 

O: 10FEB2025 05:48:38  17.4S  167.7E MB=4.7  EMSC   VANUATU                       

O: 10FEB2025 00:16:03  17.5S  167.8E mb=5.4  EMSC   VANUATU

O: 10FEB2025 00:09:43  17.5S  167.9E MW=5.8  EMSC   VANUATU                      

P:  5FEB2025 169584    18.0S  168.0E 4.0-5.6 BAAAA  Vanuatu Islands            

 

 

NEIC reported the earthquake of M 5.3 in the Solomon Islands was felt with moderate intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Solomon Islands at Honiara, Guadalcanal.

 

Forecast 169393 had expected enhanced seismicity in the Solomon Islands was likely in early February, 2025.

 

O: 10FEB2025 00:28:22   7.1S  155.7E MW=5.4  EMSC   SOLOMON ISLANDS              

P:  6FEB2025 169393     9.0S  158.0E 4.0-5.4 BBBAA  Solomon Islands            

 

Expected Far-field earthquake triggering from energy emitted at the Cayman Islands epicenter today may be seen in some of the following locales:

 

Antipodal (~180 degrees)

 

Cayman Island to South of Sumatra*

 

Outer shadow zone edge (141-148 degrees)

 

Cayman Islands to North of North Island, Kermadec Is. Fiji*, Tonga, New Zealand, Myanmar, Mindanao, Talaud*, Halmahera, Indonesia, south Australia*

added:

 

Node 3 (120 degrees)

 

Cayman Islands to Xizang*, Pakistan, Afghanistan*, Yemen*, Ethiopia*, Solomon Is*, New Ireland/New Britain*, Kyushu, Japan

 

P- and S- shadow zone edge and node 7 (101-110 degrees)

 

Cayman Islands to South of Africa, Southern Kuril Islands, Hokkaido*, Northern Honshu, Japan,  north of North Island, Kermadec Is, New Zealand, Tonga/Fiji*, Angola, Israel, Jordan, eastern TurkeyCaucasus, Mongolia, Sea of Japan, Sakhalin.

 

Node 4 (90 degrees)

 

Cayman Islands to Western Turkey,  Dodecanese Islands*, Greece*,  Kamchatka*, Samoa, 

 

Node 5 (72 degrees)

 

Cayman Islands to Unimak Island, Alaska, Bering Sea, Arctic Ocean, Central Mid-Atlantic, Sicily*, Malta,

 

Node 6 (60 degrees)

 

Cayman Islands to Central Mid-Atlantic, eastern Alaska, Chile Rise, Gulf of Alaska, Iceland, Araucania, Chile, 

 

Node 7 (52 degrees)

 

Cayman Islands to Coquimbo,  Central Chile, SE Alaska, Yukon, Canada, Azores*, ,

 

Among far-field aftershocks that occurred immediately yesterday was an M 4.7 in the area south of the Fiji Islands and an M 3.7 in Hokkaido, Japan. These events were located at 103 and 105 degrees from the Cayman Islands epicenter respectively. An earthquake in the Fox Islands, Alaska of M 3.7 occurred at the fifth node (72 degrees) from the Cayman Islands, and moderate earthquakes occurred near the fourth node (90 degrees) in the Dodecanese Islands, Greece.

 

An M 5.2 was the strongest earthquake today in the earthquake storm in the Dodecanese Islands, Greece. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to IV in Kiklades, Greece at Mpatsi and Paros and III in Greece at Viron, Naxos and in Turkey at Izmir and Bodrum, Mugla with intensity II in Menderes and in Greece at Athens, Rodos and Apollonia.

 

Forecasts 169439 and 169438 had expected enhanced seismicity in the Dodecanese

Island was likely in early February, 2025.

 

O: 09FEB2025 08:06:31  36.6N   25.6E mb=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 09FEB2025 09:02:06  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 09FEB2025 11:54:43  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 09FEB2025 11:59:45  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.6  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 09FEB2025 15:16:31  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 09FEB2025 15:55:28  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 09FEB2025 17:18:12  36.6N   25.6E ML=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 09FEB2025 18:41:43  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 09FEB2025 18:53:58  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.7  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 09FEB2025 19:16:46  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.7  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 09FEB2025 19:25:12  36.6N   25.6E mb=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 09FEB2025 19:31:40  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 09FEB2025 20:35:42  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 10FEB2025 01:00:00  36.6N   25.6E mb=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O:  9FEB2025 19:05:39  36.7N   25.6E MW=5.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE   

P:  6FEB2025 169439    36.0N   25.0E 3.0-5.5 BAAAA  Aegean Sea                 

P:  9FEB2025 169438    35.0N   25.0E 3.0-5.5 ABAAA  Aegean Sea                 

 

 

While much of the moderate or unusual earthquakes in the world today could be attributed as far-field aftershocks from the M 7.6 in the Cayman Islands (see above) antipodal earthquakes to the tropical cyclones also continued today. The most unusual of these were an M 4.2 and M 3.9 off the coast of northern Mexico in the area of Islas Marias, Nayarit, Mexico. This is the strongest earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter since an M 4.1 on February 16, 2023. An earthquake of M 4.7 occurred about 200 km from today's epicenter one year ago today as an M 4.7 on February 9, 2024, the last regional event with M>=3.9. Both of these February earthquakes were associated with Tropical Cyclones near the antipode in the South Indian Ocean.  The last earthquake in the area of significantly larger magnitude was an M 5.7 on June 4, 2021.  At the time this summary noted:

 

"In the past several decades earthquakes of M>=5.6 have occurred approximately every 10 years within about 200 km of today's epicenter These occurred as an M 5.6 on April 1, 1991; an M 6.1 on November 13, 2001; an M 5.6 on September 14, 2010 and today's event of M 5.6 on July 4, 2021." (July 4, 2021)

 

Today's events are antipodal earthquakes to Tropical Cyclone Vince which passed over this the antipode south of India at the time of today's earthquake in Nayarit, Mexico.

 

Data and analyses of Tropical Storm Vince below as published in the previous issue of this summary illustrates the antipodal natures of the Vince and the M 3.9 in Nayarit.

 

TC    VINCE    2025-02-10  00:00 UT  20.3S   74.0E  150 kts  north of western Australia   

 

Tropical Cyclone Vince (13S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean northwest western Australia with winds up to 150 kts.  It is expected to track to the west and south over the next several days. The antipode at 21N 107W is in Colima,  Mexico. Antipodal focusing of energy from this storm could help promote a moderate to strong earthquake in that area in the next couple of days.

 

and

 

"TC    VINCE    2025-02-09  00:00 UT  19.8S   76.0E  160 kts  north of western Australia   

 

Tropical Cyclone Vince (13S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean northwest western Australia with winds up to 160 kts.  It is expected to track to the west and south over the next several days. The antipode at 19N 104W is in Colima,  Mexico. Antipodal focusing of energy from this storm could help promote a moderate to strong earthquake in that area in the next couple of days." (February 9, 2025)

 

The earthquakes in Nayarit, Mexico were also coincident with a moderate solar flare - SWPC #2870 which began at the same time as the earthquakes in Nayarit. It is possible that SFE from this flare triggered this Mexican activity. SWPC data for this flare follow:

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2870       2018   2025      2030   C3.9      (February 9, 2025)   2.1E-03  

Nayarit M 3.9, 4.2 20:18 UT

 

 

Forecast 169412 had expected enhanced seismicity near Nayarit, Mexico was

likely around February 8, 2025.

 

O: 09FEB2025 20:17:41  21.3N  106.5W ML=3.9  EMSC   ISLAS MARIAS REG., NAYARIT, MEX.

O:  9FEB2025 20:16:18  21.6N  106.1W ML=4.2  EMSC   OFFSHORE NAYARIT, MEXICO     

P:  8FEB2025 169412    19.0N  105.0W 3.5-5.5 ACAAA  Michoacan, Mexico          

 

Antipodal activity to the other Tropical Cyclone south of Indonesia (TC Taliah)  also continued today. The current location of this cyclone is noted in this summary as:

 

TC    TALIAH   2025-02-10  00:00 UT  14.5S   91.0E  050 kts  South of Sumatra   

 

Tropical Cyclone Taliah (14S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean south of Sumatra with winds up to 50 kts.  It is expected to track to the west and south over the next several days and could have moderate effect on earthquakes in western and central Indonesia in the next several days. The antipode at 14N 90W is near Guatemala and Honduras. It is likely that this area of Central America will see additonal enhanced seismicity while Taliah is active.

 

Two moderate earthquakes (perhaps aftershocks) were recorded in Guatemala today as TC Taliah was near the antipode. These included an M 4.5 and 3.8 at 14M 91W and a series of aftershocks in the Cayman Islands, Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua. TC Taliah will not be directly antipodal to Guatemala for another day and enhanced seismicity is likely in the area of Guatemala and El Salvador in the next two days due to antipodal effects from TC Taliah.

 

Aftershocks also continued today in the Cayman Islands area. Several of these, including event of M 4.8 and M 4.6 were felt in Yucatan, Mexico with intensity up to III at Merida and in Bonfil Quintana Roo, Mexico and perhaps as far as Miami Beach, Florida.

 

This activity in the Cayman Islands had been anticipated in forecast 169415 to occur within about 200 km of these events around February 6, 2025.

 

O: 09FEB2025 08:21:32  17.6N   82.8W mb=4.6  EMSC   CAYMAN ISLANDS REGION

O: 09FEB2025 09:14:07  17.6N   82.9W mb=4.8  EMSC   CAYMAN ISLANDS REGION

O:  9FEB2025 23:46:18  17.5N   83.6W MB=4.2  EMSC   NORTH OF HONDURAS            

P:  6FEB2025 169415    17.0N   85.0W 3.5-5.2 BABAA  Nicaragua                  

 

 

An unusual earthquake of M 4.7 occurred today on the Western Indian-Antarctic Ridge. It was not reported felt in this remote area and occurred near local solar midnight, possibly being promoted by tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. The last earthquake of M>=4.7 within about 200 km of this epicenter was an M 4.9 on November 24, 2023.

 

Today's Antarctic Ridge epicenter is at 143 degrees from the Cayman Islands epicenter and was probably an FFA from that event.

 

Forecast 169616 had expected this event was likely within about 100 km around

February 10, 2025.

 

O:  9FEB2025 16:38:04  49.4S  123.3E MB=4.7  EMSC   WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

P: 10FEB2025 169616    49.0S  122.0E 4.0-5.4 AAAAA  So. of Australia           

 

 

MAJOR EARTHQUAKE STRIKES CAYMAN ISLANDS, CARIBBEAN

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 8, 2025

 

 

A major to great earthquake occurred today in the Cayman Islands, northern Caribbean. The mainshock of M 7.6 (NEIC, EMSC) to 8.0 (PT, AT) was probably nearest the M 7.6 magnitude, a level reported by nearly all seismic networks. It was preceded by an M 4.3 earlier in the day (See previous issue of this summary) and followed by several felt aftershocks.  An aftershock of M 4.8 was reported felt with light intensity in Belize, Honduras an northern Mexico. It was reported by NEIC to have been widely felt with maximum intensity VII (Slight damage) in Honduras at Gracias a Dios in Paptalaya, and Puerto Lempira and VI at Iralaya. Intensity IV was felt in Dangriga Stann Creek, Belize and in Hopewell, Hanover, Jamaica as well as in Honduras at San Ignacio and Savannah Bight Islas de la Bahia. Lesser shaking of intensity II-III was reported in Puerto Rico, Florida, Ohio, Belize, Cayman Islands, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico in Quintana Roo and Yucatan, Massachusetts, South Carolina, Kentucky, Illinois, Venezuela, Colombia, Jamaica, Panama, Puerto Rico, North Carolina. EMSC reported it was felt with moderate intensity and sound in George Town and West Bay, Cayman Islands, and lightly in West End, Honduras; Playa del Carmen and Cancun, Mexico, Belize City, and Ladyville, Belize,  in Mexico at Chetumal, Bacalar, in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, San Salvador, El Salvador, Miami, Florida. A tsunami was reported by PTWC at Isla Mjheres, Mexico with height of 0.04 meters.

 

The last earthquake in the world with M>=7.6 was an M 7.6 in Mindanao, Philippines on December 2, 2023 and before that an M 7.7 on May 19, 2023. The last of significantly larger magnitude in the world was an m 7.8 two years ago on February 6, 2023 in Turkey. Two earthquakes of M>=7.6 have hit within about 500 km of today's epicenter in the Caribbean Sea in the past 35 years. These were located as an M 7.7 in western Cuba on January 28, 2020 and near today's epicenter in the Cayman Islands on January 10, 2018. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"A major earthquake of M 7.6 hit north of Honduras today. This is the largest earthquake in the world in the four months since the M 8.2 in Chiapas, Mexico of September 8, 2017. This event may have caused a tsunami as receding sea levels were observed in some areas, but at this time PTWC has cancelled the tsunami threat warning. The tectonics which are largely horizontal in this area do not conform to large tsunamis originating in the area north of Honduras. This could be the beginning of a new round of large to major earthquakes around the world in the remaining days of January. Quiet seismic conditions for the past two month have led to a deficit in large events, one which may be made up for in coming days. In recent years mid-January has seen a number of major damaging earthquakes. These included the M 7.2 in Haiti of January 12, 2010 and an M 6.5 in Puerto Rico on January 13, 2014. This summary had anticipated a possible large earthquake in this area in previous summaries as:

 

"TC Irving (04S) formed today south of Sumatra, Indonesia with winds  up to 45 kts. It is expected to track to the south over the next five days. This is not a seismic zone but the antipode in El Salvador and Guatemala at 12N 89W is and could see some promoted seismicity in this active zone which has seen several moderate earthquakes in the past several days." (January 6-7, 2018)

 

...

 

While this epicenter is far from populated areas, it was widely felt within about 2000 km of the epicenter. Maximum shaking of VI was reported by NEIC in Quebrada de Arena, Colon, Honduras and V in Savannah Bight, Islas de la Bahia, Honduras. Shaking was reported from Honduras, Nicaragua, Belize, Mexico, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Florida, Guatemala, Panama, Florida, Alabama, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Kentucky, Missouri. Moderate aftershocks were also felt in Honduras and Belize. Moderate swarms in Central America preceded the Honduras event in Oaxaca and Chiapas, Mexico and in Costa Rica. Light to moderate earthquakes in the active regions of Kansas and Oklahoma have all but disappeared in the last week. It will be interesting to see if this regional seismicity returns in the next week following the changes in regional stresses following the event in Honduras. A strong earthquake hit the same area north of Honduras on May 28, 2009 (M 7.3)  but this is the strongest earthquake in the region within about 300 km of this epicenter in the past 25 years at least." (January 10, 2018)

 

Far-field earthquake triggering from energy emitted at the Cayman Islands epicenter today may be seen in some of the following locales:

 

Antipodal (~180 degrees)

 

Cayman Island to South of Sumatra

 

Outer shadow zone edge (141-148 degrees)

 

Cayman Islands to North of North Island, Kermadec Is. Fiji, Tonga, New Zealand, Myanmar, Mindanao, Talaud, Halmahera, Indonesia, south Australia

 

Node 3 (120 degrees)

 

Cayman Islands to Xizang, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen, Ethiopia, Solomon Is, New Ireland/New Britain, Kyushu, Japan

 

P- and S- shadow zone edge and node 7 (101-110 degrees)

 

Cayman Islands to South of Africa, Southern Kuril Islands, Hokkaido, Northern Honshu, Japan,  north of North Island, Kermadec Is, New Zealand, Tonga/Fiji, Angola, Israel, Jordan, eastern TurkeyCaucasus, Mongolia, Sea of Japan, Sakhalin.

 

Node 4 (90 degrees)

 

Cayman Islands to Western Turkey,  Dodecanese Islands, Greece,  Kamchatka, Samoa, 

 

Node 5 (72 degrees)

 

Cayman Islands to Unimak Island, Alaska, Bering Sea, Arctic Ocean, Central Mid-Atlantic, Sicily, Malta,

 

Node 6 (60 degrees)

 

Cayman Islands to Central Mid-Atlantic, eastern Alaska, Chile Rise, Gulf of Alaska, Iceland, Araucania, Chile, 

 

Node 7 (52 degrees)

 

Cayman Islands to Coquimbo,  Central Chile, SE Alaska, Yukon, Canada, Azores, ,

 

Today's activity in the Cayman Islands is at the third node (120 degrees) from the

M 6.8 in Kyushu, Japan of January 13, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 169415 had expected enhanced activity in this area within about 200 km

of today's epicenter was likely around February 6, 2025.

 

O: 08FEB2025 23:23:16  17.7N   82.4W Mw=7.6  EMSC   CAYMAN ISLANDS REGION

O: 08FEB2025 23:23:16  17.7N   82.5W ML=7.6  NEIC   CAYMAN ISLANDS REGION

O: 08FEB2025 02:22:56  18.8N   81.8W ML=4.3  EMSC   CAYMAN ISLANDS REGION

O: 09FEB2025 00:23:06  17.7N   82.8W mb=4.2  EMSC   CAYMAN ISLANDS REGION

O: 09FEB2025 00:16:33  17.8N   82.1W mb=4.3  EMSC   CAYMAN ISLANDS REGION

O:  8FEB2025 23:51:06  17.5N   83.2W MB=4.8  EMSC   NORTH OF HONDURAS             

P:  6FEB2025 169415    17.0N   85.0W 3.5-5.2 AABAA  Nicaragua                  

 

Among far-field aftershocks that occurred immediately today was an M 4.7 in the area south of the Fiji Islands and an M 3.7 in Hokkaido, Japan. These events were located at 103 and 105 degrees from the Cayman Islands epicenter respectively. An earthquake in the Fox Islands, Alaska of M 3.7 occurred is at the fifth node (72 degrees) from the Cayman Islands, and moderate earthquakes occurred near the fourth node (90 degrees) in the Dodecanese Islands, Greece.

 

The  activity in the Dodecanese Islands is located at 142 degrees from the Vanuatu M 7.4 of December 17, 2024 and at the seventh node (51.4 degrees) from the M 7.1 in Tibet of January 7 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 169439 had expected this activity in the Dodecanese Islands was

likely around February 6.

 

O: 08FEB2025 08:16:39  36.6N   25.8E mb=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 08FEB2025 08:56:16  36.6N   25.6E mb=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 08FEB2025 09:00:41  36.6N   25.6E mb=5.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 08FEB2025 09:07:19  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 08FEB2025 09:10:07  36.6N   25.6E mb=4.5  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 08FEB2025 09:15:47  36.6N   25.6E mb=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 08FEB2025 09:24:04  36.6N   25.6E mb=4.6  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 08FEB2025 16:18:41  36.6N   25.6E ML=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 08FEB2025 16:29:58  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 08FEB2025 16:51:46  36.6N   25.6E mb=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 08FEB2025 17:15:13  36.6N   25.7E Mw=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 09FEB2025 01:35:17  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.5  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 09FEB2025 02:55:50  36.6N   25.6E mb=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 09FEB2025 04:47:32  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 09FEB2025 05:01:59  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O:  8FEB2025 08:36:05  36.5N   25.6E MB=4.8  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE   

P:  6FEB2025 169439    36.0N   25.0E 3.0-5.5 AAAAA  Aegean Sea                 

 

 

O:  8FEB2025 17:58:40  51.9N  173.2W ML=4.0  EMSC   ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS

P:  6FEB2025 169546    52.4N  174.3W 3.5-5.0 AAAAA  Andreanoff Isls, Aleutians 

 

Several hours before the M 7.6 in the Cayman Islands, an unusual earthquake of M 4.3 occurred at 141-142 degrees from that epicenter in Southern Australia. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II in Cooma New South Wales, Australia. This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter in South Australia since an M 4.9 on January 11, 2025. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"An unusual earthquake of M 4.9 shook areas of southern Australia today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in South Australia at Port Augusta and Port Pirie with intensity II-III in Adelaide, Mount Gambier and Whyalla. The M 4.9 is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of today's epicenter since an M 4.9 hit about 100 km southeast of this on March 22, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"An unusual earthquake of M 4.9 occurred today off the southern coast of South Australia. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in South Australia at Port Pirir and II-III in Whyalla, Gawler, Adelaide and Crafers-Bridgewater, Australia. The only earthquake with equal or larger magnitude within about 400 km of this epicenter in the past 35 years was a similar M 4.9 on October 8, 2021 about 400 km to the southeast of today's epicenter. At the time this summary noted:

 

"An unusual earthquake of M 4.9 occurred in Victoria, Australia today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II-III in Victoria and South Australia at Murray Bridge, Horsham, Midua, Moujnt Barker, Victor Harbor, Adelaide, Mount Gambler, Swan Hill, Hamilton and Maryborough. This is the strongest earthquake within about 300 km of this epicenter in at least 30 years. An M 4.8 hit the area on October 27, 2001 and about 400 km northwest of this on May 3, 1997, the only similar quakes in Victoria since 1990." (October 8, 2021, January 11, 2025)

 

 

 

 

O:  8FEB2025 18:48:47  32.0S  138.7E MB=4.3  EMSC   SOUTH AUSTRALIA              

 

Today's M 7.6 in the Cayman Islands may also have been promoted by a strong geomagnetic excursion. The high latitude Kp reached 6 between about 09:00 and 16:00 UT. This is the most disturbed since the beginning of February and only the fourth time  in the past month when Kp>=6 has been recorded by SWPC.

 

This summary had expected a major earthquake was likely at this time in South or Central America. For example on February 2, 2025 it was noted:

 

 

"This analysis of the event 15 years ago in this area of New Zealand was followed on February 27, 2010 by one of the greatest earthquakes of the century in Central Chile on February 27 with M 8.8. That event did tremendous damage to much of Central Chile. Could a repeat occur at this time. This summary identifies the coastline of South America as an area of significant danger of an strong seismic event in the next week." (January 27, 2025)

 

 

"The strongest earthquakes in South or Central America today were an M 4.8 in  central Peru and an unusual M 4.9 northeast of Colombia in the Caribbean Sea.

NEIC reported the Caribbean earthquake of M 4.9 in Colombia was felt with moderate intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Caribbean Sea northeast of Colombia at San Andres and Providencia.   The earthquake in the Caribbean Sea was the strongest within about 200 km of that epicenter since an M 6.0 and aftershocks on November 25, 2018." (January 29, 2025)

 

and

 

"While the predicted quality of these seemlingly random sets of earthquakes between unusual areas north of New Zealand and the coast of South America is not yet certain, they are certainly suggestive. It would therefore appear that canceling the forecast for South America at this time may be premature. Therefore this summary continues that forecast with the potential for a further strong event, probably in Chile, in the first week of February, 2025" (February 2, 2025)

 

The strongest earthquake in the past 24 hours occurred north of Tropical Cyclone Taliah south of Sumatra. This summary had discussed this event in the previous issue as:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.8 (NEIC, EMSC) to M 6.2 (BMG, GeoNet) south of Sumatra, Indonesia. It was not reported by NEIC to have been felt in this remote oceanic area. This earthquake at 9.8S 97.6E is nearly antipodal to the M 6.0 in  Guatemala two days ago and is near the current eye of Tropical Cyclone Taliah which has been given in the previous issue of this summary as:

 

"TC    TALIAH   2025-02-06  00:00 UT  14.9S  103.8E  080 kts  north of western Australia   

 

Tropical Cyclone Taliah (14S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean north of western Australia with winds up to 80 kts.  It is expected to track to the west and south over the next several days and could have moderate effect on earthquakes in western and central Indonesia in the next several days. The antipode at 15N 77W is off the coast of Central America and Honduras. It is likely that this area of Central America will see enhanced seismicity while Taliah is active." (February 6, 2025)

 

The location of Taliah at the time of the M 5.8 south of Sumatra was directly south of that epicenter. It is likely that this earthquake was promoted by energy associated with TC Taliah.

 

TC    TALIAH   2025-02-07  00:00 UT  15.5S   99.0E  055 kts  South of Sumatra   

 

Tropical Cyclone Taliah (14S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean south of Sumatra with winds up to 55 kts.  It is expected to track to the west and south over the next several days and could have moderate effect on earthquakes in western and central Indonesia in the next several days. The antipode at 15N 80W is off the coast of Central America and Honduras. It is likely that this area of Central America will see enhanced seismicity while Taliah is active.

 

 

This event of M 5.8 south of Sumatra is the largest within about 300 km of this epicenter in at least 35 years. Other moderate earthquake have occurred in this area since 1990 as an M 5.4 on July 19, 2009 and an M 5.1 on September 25, 2006.

 

This summary had noted the antipodal nature of regional Tropical storms south of Indonesia and the Guatemala earthquake in the previous summary as:

 

 

"Today's event of M 5.7-6.0 ...  occurred near the antipode of Tropical Cyclone Vince (13S). In this and previous issues of this summary it had been anticipated a moderate to large earthquake could occur in Guatemala (the antipode of TC Vince) at this time as:

 

"TC    VINCE    2025-02-05  00:00 UT  17.8S   90.1E  125 kts  north of western Australia   

 

Tropical Cyclone Vince (13S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean north of western Australia with winds up to 125 kts.  It is expected to track to the west and south over the next several days. The antipode at 17N 90W is in Northern Guatemala, Chiapas, Mexico and Vera Cruz, Mexico and could help promote a moderate to strong earthquake in that area in the next couple of days." (February 3-4, 7,  2025)

 

 

As noted in the previous issue of this summary, today's event in the Cayman

Islands is antipodal to the current position of Tropical Cyclone Taliah south of Sumatra, Indonesia. Analysis from the previous version of this (written before the M 7.6 Cayman Islands earthquake) follows:

 

The earthquake south of Sumatra may further enhance seismicity at the antipode about 16N 83W as noted below. It may have been promoted by Solar flare 2130 - a C3.2 which peaked at the same time as the event southwest of Sumatra.  SWPC data for this flare follow:

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2130       0419   0431      0438   C3.2      (February 7, 2025)   2.7E-03  

 

Ionian Sea M 4.5 04:26 UT

Southwest of Sumatra M 5.8-6.2 04:31 UT

 

 

The M 5.8 South of Sumatra on February 7, 2025 and antipodal earthquakes in the

Caribbean, Guatemala and Mexico reminds readers of the existence of enhanced seismicity antipodal to major Tropical Cyclones. This summary has been studying this phenomena for decades, but what constitutes an "antipodal earthquake"?

 

Following a major disturbance on the earth's surface energy on the surface is  focused by the spherical shape of the earth at the exact opposite point on the earth's surface - the antipode. Such disturbances can include a major earthquake, a major meteorological storm or a meteor/cometary collision. The last of these can often leave "strange terrain" in the antipodal tectonics and terrain, but smaller events are more difficult to ascertain in the antipodal area.  In general, antipodal seismicity occurs within several days of the main disturbance within several hundred km of the antipode. These events often occur at unusual epicenters off the normal fault zones with moderate magnitude. These can often be discerned prior to their occurrence.

 

Moderate earthquakes continued in the Dodecanese Islands, Greece today. The strongest of these was an M 5.1. EMSC reported it was felt with moderate intensity in Greece at Thira, Agios Georgios, Ermoupoli, Gazi, Glyfada, Elliniko, Cholargos, Chalandri, Amarousio, Kallithea, Moschato, Piraeus, Nea Erythraia, Corinth. This earthquake may have been promoted by SFE from the strong M2.0 class solar flare (#2530) which began three minutes before this earthquake. Data on this flare from SWPC follow:

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2530       0857   0927      0941   M2.0      (February 8, 2025)   3.3E-02  

Dodecanese M 5.1 09:00 UT, M 4.5 09:10 UT, M 4.2 09:15 UT, M 4.6 09:24 UT

No. California M 2.9 09:23 UT

Vanuatu M 5.2 09:24 UT

 

 

ANTIPODAL WEATHER AND SEISMIC CONNECTIONS REVIEWED

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 7, 2025

 

 

Readers should be aware that the “DISTANCES” section of this summary has been updated and is now reflecting the newest major earthquakes.

 

The M 5.8 South of Sumatra on February 7, 2025 and antipodal earthquakes in the

Caribbean, Guatemala and Mexico reminds readers of the existence of enhanced seismicity antipodal to major Tropical Cyclones. This summary has been studying this phenomena for decades, but what constitutes an "antipodal earthquake"?

 

Following a major disturbance on the earth's surface energy on the surface is focused by the spherical shape of the earth at the exact opposite point on  the earth's surface - the antipode. Such disturbances can include a major earthquake, a major meteorological storm or a meteor/cometary collision. The last of these can often leave "strange terrain" in the antipodal tectonics and terrain, but smaller events are more difficult to ascertain in the antipodal area. In general, antipodal seismicity occurs within several days of the main disturbance within several hundred km of the antipode. These events often occur at unusual epicenters off the normal fault zones with moderate magnitude. These can often be discerned prior to their occurrence.

 

As examples of antipodal earthquakes two are of note that occurred today. In the past several days a series of tropical cyclones has moved through the area north of Western Australia and south of Indonesia. The strongest active events today are Tropical Cyclone Taliah and Tropical Cyclone Vince. A snapshot of these cyclones places their location today at:

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE TALIAH (14S)                  

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

TC    TALIAH   2025-02-08  00:00 UT  16.5S   97.0E  065 kts  South of Sumatra   

 

Tropical Cyclone Taliah (14S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean south of Sumatra with winds up to 65 kts.  It is expected to track to the west and south over the next several days and could have moderate effect on earthquakes in western and central Indonesia in the next several days. The antipode at 17N 82W is off the coast of Central America and Honduras. It is likely that this area of Central America will see enhanced seismicity while Taliah is active.

 

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE VINCE (13S)                  

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

TC    VINCE    2025-02-08  00:00 UT  19.8S   76.0E  160 kts  north of western Australia   

 

Tropical Cyclone Vince (13S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean northwest western Australia with winds up to 160 kts.  It is expected to track to the west and south over the next several days. The antipode at 19N 104W is in Colima,  Mexico. Antipodal focusing of energy from this storm could help promote a moderate to strong earthquake in that area in the next couple of days.

 

As noted the exact antipodes of these two storms lie in the Caribbean Sea at 19N 104W and 17N 83W in Colima and the Cayman Islands respectively. These two areas saw unusual seismic, moderate seismic events today with parameters from EMSC as follow:

 

 

O:  8FEB2025 02:22:56  18.8N   81.8W MB=4.3  EMSC   CAYMAN ISLANDS REGION        

P:  6FEB2025 169415    17.0N   85.0W 3.5-5.2 ABCAA  Nicaragua                  

 

This earthquake was at the third node (120 degrees) from the M 6.8 in Kyushu of January 13, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from that source. An M 4.2 today in Guatemala is also at this distance from Kyushu.

 

and

 

 

O: 07FEB2025 10:53:14  19.4N  104.2W ML=3.1  EMSC   JALISCO, MEXICO

O: 07FEB2025 08:04:40  18.2N  102.2W ML=3.8  EMSC   MICHOACAN, MEXICO

O: 07FEB2025 20:58:52  18.6N  103.9W ML=4.0  EMSC   OFFSHORE COLIMA, MEXICO

O:  7FEB2025 21:20:37  18.6N  103.9W ML=4.4  EMSC   OFFSHORE COLIMA, MEXICO      

P:  7FEB2025 169412    19.0N  103.0W 3.5-5.3 AAAAA  Michoacan, Mexico          

 

The last earthquake in the area offshore Colima within about 150 km of today's

M 4.4 was an M 4.8 on November 27, 2014 and prior to that an M 4.6 on July 30, 2013. So, clearly today's Colima event is unusual, being the strongest in this area in more than 10 years.

 

 

Likewise the last earthquake in the Cayman Islands with M>=4.3 (NEIC data) occurred more than 10 years ago - as an M 4.6 on October 16, 2014.

 

So these two events satisfy the criteria for being antipodal seismicity associated with major Tropical Cyclones - within 200 km of the exact antipode,  moderate but unusual magnitudes and unusual earthquakes which were well forecast and can be referred to as "antipodally triggered" (TCAS - Tropical Cyclone Antipodal Seismicity).

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.0 in the Fiji Islands.  It was not reported felt in this remote area. As it occurred near local solar noon it may have been promoted by tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. The last earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter with M>=6.0 occurred on June 25, 2023 with M 6.0 - an aftershock of an M 7.2 of June 15, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 7.2 in southern Tonga. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity IV in Tongatapu at Vaini and II-III in Tofoa-Koloua, Nuku'alofa, Niue and possibly in northern New Zealand. This event was probably triggered by a strong geomagnetic storm which maximized at the time of the earthquake in Tonga which GOES 18 reported maximized at about 18:00 UT. SWPC reported this is the strongest geomagnetic storm in the past month - since AP reached 35 on May 20, 2023. That storm was associated with the M 7.7 series in the Loyalty Islands of May 19-20, the last major earthquake in the world - an event located directly west of today's epicenter. An aftershock of M 6.0 followed later in the day.  This is the strongest earthquake in Tonga within about 250 km of this epicenter since an M  7.4 on May 23, 2013. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

 

"This is the strongest earthquake to hit this region of the Tonga/Fiji

Islands since an M 7.6 on March 19, 2009. The only other such event in the past 25 years was an M 7.8 on October 14, 1997. Local news reported the earthquake shook homes and rattled windows in Nuku'alofa, the capital city of Tonga. It shook many buildings in the capital but no damages or casualties were reported. No tsunami was reported or expected." (May 23, 2013, June 15, 2023)

 

Today's activity in Fiji is at 103-105 degrees from the M 7.1 in Tibet of January 7, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 169597 had expected today's earthquake within about 100 km was likely around February 8.

 

O:  7FEB2025 10:26:58  23.9S  176.1W MW=6.0  EMSC   SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS        

P:  8FEB2025 169597    23.0S  177.0W 4.0-5.5 AAAAA  Tonga Islands              

 

The strongest earthquake in the Dodecanese swarm today was an M 5.1. This event occurred several minutes after the start of Solar Flare 2160 which was given the following parameters by SWPC. It was likely promoted by SFE from that source.

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2160       0712   0721      0737   M3.2      (February 7, 2025)   3.2E-02  

Dodecanese M 5.1 07:16 UT

Peru M 4.8 07:24 UT

 

 

This activity is located at 142 degrees from the Vanuatu M 7.4 of December 17, 2024 and at the seventh node (51.4 degrees) from the M 7.1 in Tibet of January 7 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 169439 had expected this activity in the Dodecanese Islands was

likely around February 6.

 

O: 07FEB2025 07:16:15  36.6N   25.6E mb=5.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 07FEB2025 10:30:28  36.6N   25.6E mb=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 07FEB2025 15:15:28  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 07FEB2025 15:16:51  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.6  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 08FEB2025 01:52:05  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.5  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 08FEB2025 03:08:35  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 08FEB2025 03:11:25  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.7  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O:  7FEB2025 07:11:24  36.6N   25.7E MB=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE   

P:  6FEB2025 169439    36.0N   25.0E 3.0-5.5 AAAAA  Aegean Sea                 

 

An earthquake of M 5.1 also occurred in Sicily, Italy today and was followed by a series of minor aftershocks. This earthquake in Sicily is the strongest within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 5.2 on May 1, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

"An M 5.2 earthquake north of Sicily, Italy today was felt with intensity I in Bonifati, Calabria, Italy. The last earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter with M>=5.2 in Italy occurred on October 31, 2022 with M 5.5 and before that on October 28, 2016 with M 5.8. Earthquakes in this area occur at intermediate to deep focal depths (250-500 km) and have little effect on surface features. The October 31, 2022 was, like today's event associated about a week after a solar eclipse on October 25 as noted in this summary at the time:

 

"A moderately strong earthquake occurred at intermediate depth in southern Italy today with M 5.5. It was reported by NEIC to have been felt with intensity III in Platania, Calabria, Italy. This event was likely promoted by tidal stresses which maximized at this longitude (15E) with the solar eclipse and new moon of October 25 as noted in previous issues of this summary…

 

 

Today's earthquake of M 5.1-5.5 in Italy is the strongest located within about 200 km  of this epicenter since an M 5.7-5.8 on October 26, 2006 and prior to that an M 5.9 on September 9, 1998." (October 31, 2022, May 1, 2023)

 

 

Like the event in the Dodecanese Islands today the earthquake in Sicily also occurred four minutes after a solar flare (#2280) began and was probably promoted by SFE associated with that flare. Data for this flare from SWPC follow:

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2280       1524   1534      1545   C2.5      (February 7, 2025)   2.9E-03  

Sicily M 5.0 15:29 UT

 

This activity is located at 148 degrees from the Vanuatu M 7.4 of December 17, 2024 and at the sixth node (60 degrees) from the M 7.1 in Tibet of January 7, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 169510 had expected enhanced seismicity in southern Italy was

likely around February 8, 2025.

 

O: 07FEB2025 15:19:09  38.9N   14.9E Mw=5.0  EMSC   SICILY, ITALY

O: 07FEB2025 15:19:09  38.9N   14.9E Mw=5.1  NEIC   SICILY, ITALY

O:  7FEB2025 16:26:19  38.5N   14.5E ML=3.4  EMSC   SICILY, ITALY                

P:  8FEB2025 169510    40.0N   17.0E 3.0-5.7 ABBAA  Italy                      

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2130       0419   0431      0438   C3.2      (February 7, 2025)   2.7E-03  

 

Ionian Sea M 4.5 04:26 UT

Southwest of Sumatra M 5.8-6.2 04:31 UT

 

 

 

STRONG EARTHQUAKE SOUTH OF SUMATRA ANTIPODAL TO GUATEMALA

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 6, 2025

 

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.8 (NEIC, EMSC) to M 6.2 (BMG, GeoNet) south of Sumatra, Indonesia. It was not reported by NEIC to have been felt in this remote oceanic area. This earthquake at 9.8S 97.6E is nearly antipodal to the M 6.0 in Guatemala two days ago and is near the current eye of Tropical Cyclone Taliah which has been given in the previous issue of this summary as:

 

"TC    TALIAH   2025-02-06  00:00 UT  14.9S  103.8E  080 kts  north of western Australia   

 

Tropical Cyclone Taliah (14S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean north of western Australia with winds up to 80 kts.  It is expected to track to the west and south over the next several days and could have moderate effect on earthquakes in western and central Indonesia in the next several days. The antipode at 15N 77W is off the coast of Central America and Honduras. It is likely that this area of Central America will see enhanced seismicity while Taliah is active." (February 6, 2025)

 

The location of Taliah at the time of the M 5.8 south of Sumatra was directly south of that epicenter. It is likely that this earthquake was promoted by energy associated with TC Taliah.

 

TC    TALIAH   2025-02-07  00:00 UT  15.5S   99.0E  055 kts  South of Sumatra   

 

Tropical Cyclone Taliah (14S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean south of Sumatra with winds up to 55 kts.  It is expected to track to the west and south over the next several days and could have moderate effect on earthquakes in western and central Indonesia in the next several days. The antipode at 15N 80W is off the coast of Central America and Honduras. It is likely that this area of Central America will see enhanced seismicity while Taliah is active.

 

 

This event of M 5.8 south of Sumatra is the largest within about 300 km of this epicenter in at least 35 years. Other moderate earthquake have occurred in this area since 1990 as an M 5.4 on July 19, 2009 and an M 5.1 on September 25, 2006.

 

This summary had noted the antipodal nature of regional Tropical storms south of Indonesia and the Guatemala earthquake in the previous summary as:

 

 

"Today's event of M 5.7-6.0 ...  occurred near the antipode of Tropical Cyclone Vince (13S). In this and previous issues of this summary it had been anticipated a moderate to large earthquake could occur in Guatemala (the antipode of TC Vince) at this time as:

 

"TC    VINCE    2025-02-05  00:00 UT  17.8S   90.1E  125 kts  north of western Australia   

 

Tropical Cyclone Vince (13S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean north of western Australia with winds up to 125 kts.  It is expected to track to the west and south over the next several days. The antipode at 17N 90W is in Northern Guatemala, Chiapas, Mexico and Vera Cruz, Mexico and could help promote a moderate to strong earthquake in that area in the next couple of days." (February 3-4, 2025)

 

Forecast 169392 had expected regionally enhanced seismicity south of Sumatra was likely around February 9, 2025.

 

O:  7FEB2025 04:31:56   9.7S   97.6E MW=5.8  EMSC   SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESI

P:  9FEB2025 169392     5.0S  102.0E 4.0-5.4 ACCAA  So. of Sumatera            

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.6 near Vancouver Island, British Columbia. It was reported lightly felt in the epicentral area. This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of today's epicenter since an M 4.9 on December 25, 2024. Both are apparently aftershocks of an M 6.5 on September 15, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

 

"The last earthquake of M>=5.9  within about 100 km of today's epicenters in Vancouver was an M 6.3 on December 25, 2019, part of a series of events in the area that started with two of M 6.0 on December 23, 2019. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"Other factors which probably affected the timing of the activity in Vancouver, Canada probably included strong meteorological storms which dropped up to 12 inches on areas of the southeast U.S. and in Washington State and British Columbia and the geomagnetic storm  of December 19-20.

 

...

 

The last earthquake in the Vancouver Island area of M>=6 was an M  6.5 on July 4, 2019 with the regional seismic activation of early July, 2019. A swarm  hit southeast of today's events on October 22, 2018 (M 6.8, 6.5, 6.5) and in January,  2008 (M 6.4, 6.0 ..) and September 2013 (M 6.0, 6.0, 6.1)." (December 23, 2019, September 17, 2023, September 15, 2024)

 

Today's event in Vancouver coincided with a strong snowstorm in the northeastern U.S.

 

This activity as well as a series of events of M 3.5-4.0 in northern Baja California are located at the fourth node (90 degrees) from the M 7.2 in Vanuatu of December 17, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from that source. The activity in Vancouver is also at the fifth node (72 degrees) from the M 6.8 in Kyushu, Japan of January 13, 2025 and may have been promoted from that source.

 

Forecast 169547 had expected today's event within about 15 km was likely around

February 4, 2025.

 

O: 06FEB2025 12:17:51  50.4N  130.2W ML=3.0  EMSC   VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION

O: 06FEB2025 19:01:17  50.2N  130.2W MB=3.3  ECAN OF PORT HARDY, BC  

O: 06FEB2025 12:17:51  50.4N  130.2W MB=3.0  ECAN OF PORT HARDY, BC  

O: 06FEB2025 12:05:46  50.4N  130.2W MB=4.6  ECAN OF PORT HARDY, BC  

O:  6FEB2025 12:05:49  50.5N  129.9W MB=4.0  EMSC   VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGIO

P:  4FEB2025 169547    50.5N  130.4W 3.0-5.3 AAAAA  British Colombia           

 

An M 5.1 continued enhanced seismicity in the Dodecanese Islands today. This event was reported by EMSC to have been felt in Greece with moderate intensity at Thira, Agios Georgios, Tsoukalas, Naxos, Naousa, Ano Mera, Heraklion, Gazi, Vyronas, Athens, Chalandri, Marousi, Amarousio, Kallithea, Irakleio, Petroupoli and Acharnes. Forecast 169439 had expected continuing enhanced seismicity in the Dodecanese Islands in early February.

 

This activity is at 142 degrees from the M 7.4 in Vanuatu of December 17, 2024 and at the seventh node (51.4 degrees) from the M 7.1 in Tibet of January 7, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from those sources. Other moderate earthquakes today at 140-144 degrees from Vanuatu included an M 2.5 in the North Sea, an M 4.5 in the Reykjanes Ridge, North Atlantic, and several unusual events in Greece outside the Dodecanese Islands.

 

O: 06FEB2025 14:09:58  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 06FEB2025 14:47:51  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 06FEB2025 17:58:50  36.6N   25.6E ML=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 06FEB2025 18:03:40  36.6N   25.6E ML=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 06FEB2025 18:16:45  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 06FEB2025 19:34:50  36.6N   25.6E ML=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 07FEB2025 03:35:33  36.6N   25.6E mb=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 07FEB2025 04:56:39  36.6N   25.6E ML=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O:  6FEB2025 07:57:45  36.6N   25.7E MB=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE   

P:  6FEB2025 169439    36.0N   25.0E 3.0-5.5 AAAAA  Aegean Sea                 

 

 

 

MODERATE EARTHQUAKES CONTINUE IN DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 5, 2025

 

 

The swarm of earthquakes in the Santorini, Greece area of the Dodecanese Islands

appeared on the decline today. Still an M 5.1 occurred today along with a number

of other moderate sized events. Today's event of M 5.1 was reported by NEIC to have been felt with intensity up to VII in Kiklades, Greece at Kamarion and VI in Naousa with VI also at Ano Mera Nisia, Aigaiou, Kriti. Intensity III was felt up to 200 km from the epicenter in Greece at Kalivai, Hania, Iraklioin, Emborion and Andros Nisia Aigaiou Kriti. EMSC reported strong shaking in Greece at Naxos kai Mikres Kyklades, Thira, Agia Anna, Tsoukalas, Agios Georgios, Ano Mera, Mykonos, Tinos, Patmos among other communities. Landslides have been reported with this earthquake swarm in this hilly and mountainous terrain and are among the major hazards in the area at this time.

 

This event of M 5.1 in the Dodecanese Islands may have been promoted by SFE associated with flare 1720 as it occurred at the peak output of that flare. Data from SWPC for this flare follow:

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

1720       1902   1908      1914   C1.9      (February 5, 2025)   8.2E-04  

Dodecanese M 5.1 19:09 UT, M 4/4 19:01 UT

Greenland M 4.0 19:28 UT

 

These earthquakes in the Dodecanese Islands are located at the seventh node

(51.4 degrees) from the M 7.1 in Tibet of January 7, 2025 and were probably promoted by energy from that source.

 

Following is a partial listing of earthquakes in the Dodecanese Swarm today with M>=4 magnitude. Hundreds of smaller events were also registered.

 

Forecast 169439 had expected today's activity in the Dodecanese Islands was likely around February 6, 2025.

 

O: 05FEB2025 11:33:47  36.6N   25.6E mb=4.8  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 05FEB2025 11:52:34  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 05FEB2025 19:00:48  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 05FEB2025 22:57:46  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 05FEB2025 22:59:24  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 05FEB2025 23:16:41  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 06FEB2025 02:02:11  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 06FEB2025 02:27:29  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 06FEB2025 02:45:54  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 06FEB2025 02:45:54  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 06FEB2025 02:48:37  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 06FEB2025 02:52:42  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 06FEB2025 02:54:22  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.5  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 06FEB2025 02:56:59  36.6N   25.6E ML=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 06FEB2025 03:00:05  36.6N   25.6E mb=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 06FEB2025 03:05:29  36.6N   25.6E ML=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 06FEB2025 03:17:55  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 06FEB2025 03:19:16  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 06FEB2025 03:23:09  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.6  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 06FEB2025 03:28:56  36.6N   25.6E mb=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 06FEB2025 03:33:52  36.6N   25.6E mb=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 06FEB2025 03:36:41  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 06FEB2025 04:08:18  36.6N   25.6E mb=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 06FEB2025 04:26:25  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 06FEB2025 05:51:47  36.6N   25.6E mb=4.6  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 06FEB2025 06:21:57  36.6N   25.6E mb=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 05FEB2025 11:08:58  36.7N   25.7E Mw=4.7  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 05FEB2025 11:10:25  36.7N   25.7E Mw=4.8  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 05FEB2025 11:17:28  36.7N   25.7E ML=4.5  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 05FEB2025 11:25:36  36.7N   25.8E ML=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 05FEB2025 12:09:35  36.7N   25.8E ML=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 05FEB2025 12:14:29  36.7N   25.7E ML=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 05FEB2025 13:09:09  36.7N   25.7E ML=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 05FEB2025 14:49:34  36.7N   25.7E ML=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 05FEB2025 15:58:47  36.7N   25.8E ML=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 05FEB2025 16:18:42  36.7N   25.8E mb=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 05FEB2025 17:47:27  36.7N   25.7E Mw=4.8  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 05FEB2025 19:09:38  36.7N   25.6E Mw=5.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 05FEB2025 22:33:28  36.7N   25.8E ML=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 06FEB2025 02:24:24  36.7N   25.8E mb=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O:  5FEB2025 10:35:09  36.6N   25.7E MB=4.9  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE    

P:  6FEB2025 169439    36.0N   25.0E 3.0-5.5 AAAAA  Aegean Sea                 

 

 

The strongest earthquake felt in the U.S. or Canada today occurred as an M 4.6-4.7 south of Alaska near Perryville. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity IV in Anchorage, Alaska; III in Chugiak and II in Chignik Lagoon and Eagle River, Alaska. NEIC reported this earthquake of M 4.3 in Southern Alaska was felt with moderate intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern Alaska at Anchorage, Elmendorf AFB, Fort Richardson, Indian, Chugiak, Girdwood, Kenai, Moose Pass, Wasilla, Skwentna, Valdez and II in Anchor Point, Kasilof, Palmer, Soldotna, Tyonek, Willow and Haines. EMSC reported strong and long shaking in Anchorage, Wasilla, Eagle River, with lighter intensity at Palmer, Alaska.

The last earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter in Southern Alaska  of M>=4.6 occurred on September 1, 2024 with M 4.6.

 

Forecast 169561 had expected today's event within about 100 km was likely

around February 8.

 

O: 05FEB2025 08:07:09  61.3N  150.7W mb=4.6  EMSC   SOUTHERN ALASKA

O:  6FEB2025 00:18:01  61.0N  150.4W ML=3.0  EMSC   SOUTHERN ALASKA              

P:  8FEB2025 169561    60.8N  151.7W 3.2-5.3 AAAAA  Central Alaska             

 

The strongest unfelt earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.9 in the area of the Alaska Peninsula. This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter in the Alaska Peninsula since an M 5.1 on August 26, 2024 - an aftershock of an M 5.6 on August 1, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world (and in the U.S. or Canada) today was an M 5.6 in the Alaska Peninsula near Unimak Island, Alaska. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to IV at Sand Point, Alaska. The last earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter in Alaska with M>=5.6 was an M 5.6 one year ago on August 3, 2023 - an aftershock of an M 7.2 on July 16, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world, the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.6 in the Unimak Island area of Alaska. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Sand Point, King Cove and II-III in False Pass, Chignik Lagoon, Alaska. This is the strongest aftershock to date of the M 7.2-7.4 of July 16, 2023 in the Alaska Peninsula about 50 km east of today's epicenter. It is the second largest earthquake in this area since an M 6.1 on July 28 and July 29, 2020. In the past

15 years many of the strongest earthquakes in this region have occurred in mid- to late-July and early August, perhaps indicating a seasonal triggering component. All events in the region with M>=6 since 2008 have occurred in late July including an M 6.1 on July 16, 2011; an M 6.0 on July 19, 2018; an M 6.1 on July 28, 2020 and an M 7.2 on July 16, 2023." (August 3, 2023, August 1, 2024)

 

 

Forecast 169543 had expected this earthquake was likely within about 25 km around February 9, 2025.

 

O:  5FEB2025 08:15:44  54.9N  158.3W MB=4.9  EMSC   SOUTH OF ALASKA              

P:  9FEB2025 169543    54.8N  158.7W 3.5-5.0 BAAAA  Alaska Peninsula           

 

NEIC reported earthquakes of M 4.6 in Coquimbo, and Valparaiso, Chile were felt with moderate intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Coquimbo, Chile at La Serena. EMSC reported strong shaking in Coquimbo, Chile. These are aftershocks of the M 5.8-6.0 in Coquimbo in early February.

 

These earthquake, like the M 6.0 in Guatemala today occurred at 103 degrees from Vanuatu of December 17, 2024 (M 7.4) and were probably promoted by energy from that source.

 

These events had been anticipated in forecasts 169599 and 169600 to occur within about 100 km of today's epicenters around February 3 or 4.

 

O:  6FEB2025 04:15:13  30.0S   71.4W MW=4.5  EMSC   COQUIMBO, CHILE              

P:  3FEB2025 169599    30.0S   70.0W 4.0-6.5 BABAA  Coast Central Chile        

 

O:  5FEB2025 12:37:01  33.8S   72.1W MW=4.5  EMSC   OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE   

P:  4FEB2025 169600    33.0S   72.0W 4.0-5.8 AAAAA  Central Chile              

 

A strong earthquake of M 5.7 (NEIC) to M 6.0 (INET) occurred today in the region

of Guatemala. NEIC reported slight damage and intensity VI in Guatemala in Quezaltenango at Genova and V in Almolonga, Parramos, Chimaltenango, La Gomera, Escuintla, Guatemala City, Villa Nueva, San Lucas Sacatepequez, Santa Lucia Milpas, Tapachula, Chiapas, IV throughout Guatemala within about 150 km of the epicenter and III throughout the remainder of Guatemala. EMSC reported very strong shaking in Guatemala at El Tejar, Solano, Guatemala City, San Cristobal, Boca del Monte, Colonia Valles de Vista Hermosa, and in San Salvador, El Salvador. A major earthquake hit Guatemala with great damage and  loss of life on February 4, 1976. It was reported in the previous issue of this summary in the "HISTORY" section as:

 

" 2  4  9  1 43 1976  15.324  -89.101   5 7.5   Guatemala

 

This was a strike-slip rupture which was felt over an area of at least 100,000 sq. km. on the Motagua fault. The quake killed at least 22,700 and injured more than 75,000. Losses were estimated at $1.1 billion U.S. dollars. Ground breakage occurred over 240 km, the longest rupture in America since the San Francisco quake of 1906. Maximum slippage occurred north of Guatemala City. Landslides were extensive and blocked railroads and communications in the Guatemala highlands. The quake was felt with maximum intensity IX in Mixco and sections of Guatemala City and Gualan. Many communities and towns were completely destroyed in an area around the fault of 1700 sq. km. Buildings near the fault suffered little damage, but those at a distance from the fault were completely destroyed. Many modern "earthquake resistant" structures collapsed. All houses in the towns of San Pedro Sacatepequez, El Jicaro, Sumpango, Tecpan dna Gualan were destroyed." (February 4, 2025)

 

Much of the following is repeated from the previous issue of this summary.

 

The last earthquake located in Guatemala within about 200 km of this epicenter with M>=5.7 was an M 5.8 on October 25, 2024. The last within this area of M>=6 was an M 6.2 on February 16, 2022. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.2 in Southern Guatemala. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity VIII in Escuintla, Guatemala and VII  in Mazatenango, Suchitepequez and V in San Francisco Zapotitlan with IV in San Pedro la Laguna, Acatenango, Chimaltenango, San Juan la Laguna, Solola, La Gomera, Escuintla and Atitlan, Solola; V in Retalhuleu. It was also felt with intensity IV in El Salvador, Chiapas, Mexico, Oaxaca, Mexico, Honduras, and Panama. The mainshock in Guatemala was preceded by a moderate foreshock to the east in El Salvador. NEIC reported this event was felt with intensity IV in El Salvador in Delgado and Llopango, San Salvador and III in Antiguo Cuscatlan, San Marcos and La Libertad. This activity was likely promoted by high tidal stresses with the full moon

 

...

 

 

Today's event is the strongest earthquake within about 150 km of today's epicenter since an M 6.6 on February 1, 2019 and prior to that an M 6.8 on June 22, 2017. Forecast 141111 had expected today's enhanced seismicity was likely within  about 100 km around February 17. This activity is at 142-146 degrees from the strong earthquakes in Indonesia of late December and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.  This epicenter is also at the fifth node

(72 degrees) from the M 6.8 in the Fox Islands, Aleutians of January 11 and may have been promoted by energy from that source." (February 15-16, 2022)

 

Today's event of M 5.7-6.0 occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. It occurred near the antipode of Tropical Cyclone Vince (13S). In this and previous issues of this summary it had been anticipated a moderate to large earthquake could occur in Guatemala (the antipode of TC Vince) at this time as:

 

"TC    VINCE    2025-02-05  00:00 UT  17.8S   90.1E  125 kts  north of western Australia   

 

Tropical Cyclone Vince (13S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean north of western Australia with winds up to 125 kts.  It is expected to track to the west and south over the next several days. The antipode at 17N 90W is in Northern Guatemala, Chiapas, Mexico and Vera Cruz, Mexico and could help promote a moderate to strong earthquake in that area in the next couple of days." (February 3-4, 2025)

 

This earthquake also follows a volcanic eruption near this epicenter on January 27, 2025. At the time this summary noted this as:

 

"A strong eruption of Santiaguito Volcano in Guatemala occurred on January 27, 2025. The eruption included red hot rocks and plumes of smoke and ash rising nearly 1200 meters. Santiaguito is a part of the Santa Maria Volcano complex near Quetzaltenango. A major eruption in the area occurred in 1902 killing more than 5000 people." (February 1, 2025)

 

This earthquake in Guatemala was closely associated with a Solar flare and occurred near the beginning of that event. SWPC data for this flare follow:

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

1510       0709   0715      0723   C2.6      (February 5, 2025)   1.0E-03  

Vanuatu M 4.8 07:17 UT

Guatemala M 5.6 07:01 UT

 

 

The local seismic network (INETER - Instituto Nicaraguense de Estudios Territoriales and CATAC - Centro de Asesoramiento de Tsunamis en America Central) provided the following data for this earthquake in Guatemala:

 

This epicenter is at 103 degrees from the M 7.4 in Vanuatu of December 17, 2024 and was likely promoted by energy from that source. Other areas which saw moderate earthquakes at this distance from Vanuatu included the area of Coquimbo, Chile and events in Oklahoma and southern Texas.

 

Forecast 169405 had expected today's activity in Guatemala was likely around

February 4-8, 2025.

 

O: 05FEB2025 07:01:19  13.9N   91.6W ML=6.0  INET   Southern Guatemala   

O: 05FEB2025 07:01:19  13.8N   91.7W ML=5.7  UNAM   Southern Guatemala   

O: 05FEB2025 05:45:03  13.9N   89,8W ML=3.9  INET   Southern Guatemala   

O: 05FEB2025 22:39:38  14.0N   91.5W mb=4.1  EMSC   OFFSHORE GUATEMALA

O:  5FEB2025 07:01:18  13.8N   91.6W MW=5.6  EMSC   OFFSHORE GUATEMALA           

P:  4FEB2025 169405    14.0N   92.0W 3.5-5.5 AAAAA  Guatemala                  

P:  8FEB2025 169405    13.0N   91.0W 3.5-5.2 BAAAA  Guatemala                  

 

 

 

MODERATELY STRONG EARTHQUAKE SHAKES GUATEMALA

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 4, 2025

 

A strong earthquake of M 5.7 (NEIC) to M 6.0 (INET) occurred today in the region

of Guatemala. NEIC reported slight damage and intensity VI in Guatemala in Quezaltenango at Genova and V in Almolonga, Parramos, Chimaltenango, La Gomera, Escuintla, Guatemala City, Villa Nueva, San Lucas Sacatepequez, Santa Lucia Milpas, Tapachula, Chiapas, IV throughout Guatemala within about 150 km of the epicenter and III throughout the remainder of Guatemala. EMSC reported very strong shaking in Guatemala at El Tejar, Solano, Guatemala City, San Cristobal, Boca del Monte, Colonia Valles de Vista Hermosa, and in San Salvador, El Salvador. A major earthquake hit Guatemala with great damage and  loss of life on February 4, 1976. It was reported in the previous issue of this summary in the "HISTORY" section as:

 

" 2  4  9  1 43 1976  15.324  -89.101   5 7.5   Guatemala

 

This was a strike-slip rupture which was felt over an area of at least 100,000 sq. km. on the Motagua fault. The quake killed at least 22,700 and injured more than 75,000. Losses were estimated at $1.1 billion U.S. dollars. Ground breakage occurred over 240 km, the longest rupture in America since the San Francisco quake of 1906. Maximum slippage occurred north of Guatemala City. Landslides were extensive and blocked railroads and communications in the Guatemala highlands. The quake was felt with maximum intensity IX in Mixco and sections of Guatemala City and Gualan. Many communities and towns were completely destroyed in an area around the fault of 1700 sq. km. Buildings near the fault suffered little damage, but those at a distance from the fault were completely destroyed. Many modern "earthquake resistant" structures collapsed. All houses in the towns of San Pedro Sacatepequez, El Jicaro, Sumpango, Tecpan dna Gualan were destroyed." (February 4, 2025)

 

 

The last earthquake located in Guatemala within about 200 km of this epicenter with M>=5.7 was an M 5.8 on October 25, 2024. The last within this area of M>=6 was an M 6.2 on February 16, 2022. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.2 in Southern Guatemala. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity VIII in Escuintla, Guatmala and VII  in Mazatenango, Suchitepequez and V in San Francisco Zapotitlan with IV in San Pedro la Laguna, Acatenango, Chimaltenango, San Juan la Laguna, Solola, La Gomera, Escuintla and Atitlan, Solola; V in Retalhuleu. It was also felt with intensity IV in El Salvador, Chiapas, Mexico, Oaxaca, Mexico, Honduras, and Panama. The mainshock in Guatemala was preceded by a moderate foreshock to the east in El Salvador. NEIC reported this event was felt with intensity IV in El Salvador in Delgado and Llopango, San Salvador and III in Antiguo Cuscatlan, San Marcos and La Libertad. This activity was likely promoted by high tidal stresses with the full moon

 

...

 

 

Today's event is the strongest earthquake within about 150 km of today's epicenter since an M 6.6 on February 1, 2019 and prior to that an M 6.8 on June 22, 2017. Forecast 141111 had expected today's enhanced seismicity was likely within  about 100 km around February 17. This activity is at 142-146 degrees from the strong earthquakes in Indonesia of late December and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.  This epicenter is also at the fifth node

(72 degrees) from the M 6.8 in the Fox Islands, Aleutians of January 11 and may have been promoted by energy from that source." (February 15-16, 2022)

 

Today's event of M 5.7-6.0 occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. It occurred near the antipode of Tropical Cyclone Vince (13S). In this and previous issues of this summary it had been anticipated a moderate to large earthquake could occur in Guatemala (the antipode of TC Vince) at this time as:

 

"TC    VINCE    2025-02-05  00:00 UT  17.8S   90.1E  125 kts  north of western Australia   

 

Tropical Cyclone Vince (13S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean north of western Australia with winds up to 125 kts.  It is expected to track to the west and south over the next several days. The antipode at 17N 90W is in Northern Guatemala, Chiapas, Mexico and Vera Cruz, Mexico and could help promote a moderate to strong earthquake in that area in the next couple of days." (February 3-4, 2025)

 

This earthquake also follows a volcanic eruption near this epicenter on January 27, 2025. At the time this summary noted this as:

 

"A strong eruption of Santiaguito Volcano in Guatemala occurred on January 27, 2025. The eruption included red hot rocks and plumes of smoke and ash rising nearly 1200 meters. Santiaguito is a part of the Santa Maria Volcano complex near Quetzaltenango. A major eruption in the area occurred in 1902 killing more than 5000 people." (February 1, 2025)

 

The local seismic network (INETER - Instituto Nicaraguense de Estudios Territoriales and CATAC - Centro de Asesoramiento de Tsunamis en America Central) provided the following data for this earthquake in Guatemala:

 

This earthquake in Guatemala was closely associated with a Solar flare and occurred near the beginning of that event. SWPC data for this flare follow:

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

1510       0709   0715      0723   C2.6      (February 5, 2025)   1.0E-03  

Vanuatu M 4.8 07:17 UT

Guatemala M 5.6 07:01 UT

 

This earthquake is located at 103 degrees from the M 7.4 in Vanuatu of December 17, 2024 and also at the third node (120 degrees) from the M 6.8 in Kyushu, Japan of February 13, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from that source. A series of moderate earthquakes in the Northern Mid-Atlantic was also near the third node from Kyushu.

 

Forecast 169405 had expected today's M 5.6-6.0 in Guatemala was likely within about 25 km of this epicenter around February 4, 2025.

 

O:  5FEB2025 07:01:18  13.8N   91.6W MW=5.6  EMSC   OFFSHORE GUATEMALA           

O: 05FEB2025 07:01:19  13.9N   91.6W ML=6.0  INET   Southern Guatemala   

O: 05FEB2025 07:01:19  13.8N   91.7W ML=5.7  UNAM   Southern Guatemala   

O: 05FEB2025 05:45:03  13.9N   89,8W ML=3.9  INET   Southern Guatemala   

O:  5FEB2025 07:01:18  13.8N   91.6W MW=5.6  ANSS   NUEVA CONCEPCION GUATEMALA  

P:  4FEB2025 169405    14.0N   92.0W 3.5-5.5 AAAAA  Guatemala                  

 

Earthquakes also continued in the Dodecanese Islands today. The largest event

in the series thus far occurred today with M 5.3. EMSC reported intense shaking was felt in Greece at Thira, Naxos and Lesser Cyclades, Marpissa, Mykonos, Kamari, Ermoupoli, Patmos among others. NEIC reported this earthquake was felt near Mesaria, Greece with intensity up to VII. It was also felt with intensity VI in Thira and V in Andros Nisia Aigaiou Kriti and II-III in Greece at Gazion, mikonos and Ino Siros and in Izmir, Turkey with intensity II. It may have been felt lightly as far as Slovakia and Poland. This is part of the strong swarm in the area which began in late January, 2025. News reports indicate some people are evacuating the area due to the continuing seismic shaking. Santorini is one of the most popular tourist attractions in the area.

 

Forecast 169439 had expected enhanced seismicity in this area was likely in early February, 2025.

 

O: 04FEB2025 12:36:50  36.5N   25.6E mb=4.7  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 13:04:15  36.5N   25.7E Mw=5.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 09:09:31  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.7  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 12:50:21  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 17:10:52  36.6N   25.6E Mw=4.5  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 19:03:40  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 19:43:32  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 19:50:34  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 19:52:04  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 20:00:23  36.6N   25.6E Mw=4.7  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 20:05:39  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 20:18:22  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 20:40:59  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 23:50:47  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 05FEB2025 01:55:23  36.6N   25.8E ML=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 05FEB2025 02:16:44  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 05FEB2025 02:21:05  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 08:15:45  36.7N   25.7E mb=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 08:55:28  36.7N   25.8E mb=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 09:01:24  36.7N   25.7E ML=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 09:03:20  36.7N   25.8E mb=4.5  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 10:35:49  36.7N   25.7E mb=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 20:03:10  36.7N   25.6E ML=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O:  4FEB2025 13:04:13  36.5N   25.6E MW=5.3  ANSS   ENE OF MESARI├í GREECE       

P:  4FEB2025 169439    36.0N   26.0E 3.0-5.5 AAAAA  Aegean Sea                 

 

A series of moderate earthquake occurred at three epicenters in the Mid-Atlantic Ocean ridge today. None of these were reported felt. They occurred in the  Southern Mid-Atlantic with M 4.9; in the Central mid-Atlantic also with M 4.9 and in the Northern Mid-Atlantic with events of M 5.0 and 5.0.

 

Forecast 169595 had expected the event in the Southern Mid-Atlantic was likely  around February 7 within about 250 km of this epicenter.

 

O:  5FEB2025 01:33:11  22.6S   12.7W MB=4.9  ANSS   SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE  

P:  7FEB2025 169595    20.0S   12.0W 4.0-5.8 ACAAA  So. Mid-Atlantic Ridge     

 

The earthquake in the Central mid-Atlantic is located at 104 degrees from the M 7.1 in Tibet of January 7 and at 102 degrees from the M 7.0 off Northern California of December 5, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.

 

Forecast 169376 had expected the event in the Central Mid-Atlantic was likely  around February 6 within about 100 km of this epicenter.

 

O:  4FEB2025 17:18:23   0.4S   19.5W MB=4.9  ANSS   CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE   

P:  6FEB2025 169376     1.0S   20.0W 4.0-5.7 AAAAA  Central Mid-Atlantic       

 

The earthquakes in the north Atlantic are located at 103 degrees from the M 7.1 in Tibet of January 7, 2025 and are near the third node (120 degrees) from the M 6.8 in Kyushu, Japan of February 13, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from those sources. The strong earthquake in Guatemala today shared this distance to Kyushu.

 

Forecasts 169464 and 169201 had expected the events in the northern Mid-Atlantic were likely around February 6 within about 150 km of this epicenter.

 

O:  4FEB2025 18:21:58  30.8N   41.0W MB=5.1  ANSS   NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE  

O:  4FEB2025 17:37:58  31.0N   41.4W MB=5.0  ANSS   NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE   

O: 04FEB2025 17:37:59  31.1N   41.5W mb=5.0  EMSC   NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

P:  6FEB2025 169464    33.0N   40.0W 4.0-5.5 ABBAA  No. Mid-Atlantic Ridge     

P: 26JAN2025 169201    32.0N   41.0W 4.0-5.6 CAAAA  No. Mid-Atlantic Ridge     

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.5 in Sulawesi, Indonesia was felt with moderate intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Sulawesi, Indonesia at Manado and Buayan, Mindanao, Philippines.  BMG reported intensity III in Halmahera at Jailolo, Loloda, Ibu, Sahu, Gallela, Kao, Malifut, Tobelo, Galella, Kao and in Ternate at Pulau.

 

This event may be related to the series of tropical cyclones currently active to the south of this epicenter and north of Australia (see WEATHER section of this summary.

 

 

This earthquake may have been triggered by strong SFE associated with Solar Flare 1500 of M 1.2 class as it occurred at the beginning of that flare. SWPC data for this flare follow:

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

1500       0312   0315      0322   M1.2      (February 5, 2025)   5.2E-03  

Halmahera M 5.5 03:12 UT

 

 

Forecast 169367 had expected enhanced seismicity within about 200 km of this

epicenter was likely around February 6, 2025.

 

 

O:  5FEB2025 03:12:30   1.6N  127.1E MW=5.5  ANSS   NNW OF TERNATE INDONESIA     

O: 05FEB2025 03:12:31   1.6N  127.1E ML=6.0  BMG    Halmahera            

P:  6FEB2025 169367     2.0N  125.0E 4.0-5.5 AABAA  Mindanao, Philippines      

 

 

A strong series of earthquake occurred today in the Unimak and Fox Islands, Alaska. These were not reported felt. An M 5.3 occurred on March 12, 2015, the last such event of M>=5 within about 200 km of today's swarm. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today (as well as in the U.S.) occurred in the Unimak Islands, False Pass area south of Alaska. This event of M 5.3-5.6 was not reported felt in this remote epicentral area. The last earthquake of M>=5.3 within 150 km of this epicenter was an M 5.5 on May 3, 2010. The last of M>=5.6 was an M 5.7 on November 27, 2003 more than 12 years ago." (March 12, 2015)

 

Today’s activity in the Unimak Islands, Alaska had been anticipated in forecast 169549 to occur within about 100 km around February 3, 2025.

 

O: 04FEB2025 19:32:26  53.3N  163.9W Mw=4.6  EMSC   UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA

O: 04FEB2025 19:27:46  53.4N  163.9W Mw=5.0  EMSC   UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA

O:  4FEB2025 19:32:28  53.3N  163.9W MR=4.6  ANSS   SE OF AKUTAN ALASKA          

O:  4FEB2025 17:24:02  53.4N  163.9W MB=3.7  ANSS   SE OF AKUTAN ALASKA          

O:  4FEB2025 16:31:23  53.4N  164.0W MB=4.4  ANSS   SE OF AKUTAN ALASKA          

O:  4FEB2025 19:27:46  53.4N  164.0W MW=5.0  ANSS   SE OF AKUTAN ALASKA          

O:  4FEB2025 18:30:38  54.8N  165.1W ML=3.8  ANSS   NNE OF AKUTAN ALASKA         

P:  3FEB2025 169549    53.7N  165.3W 3.5-5.3 AAAAA  Fox Islands, Aleutians     

 

 

 

 

 

 

FFA FROM KYUSHU, JAPAN CONTINUE; TC 15P TRIGGERS M 5.5 IN LOYALTY ISLANDS

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 3, 2025

 

The earthquake in Kyushu, Japan of M 6.8 of January 13, 2025 still appears to

be promoting far-field aftershocks (FFA). This has been especially clear at 103 degrees from the Kyushu epicenter and has included unusual earthquakes in the eastern U.S. in Maine (M 4.0); New Jersey (M 2.6); southern Texas (M 4.5) among others. Today two earthquakes in Ohio of M 3.2 and M 2.8 hit the state at separate epicenters (they were not classical aftershocks). An M 2.2 also occurred in Missouri today at 103 degrees from Kyushu. These two epicenters in

Ohio and the one in Missouri are both at 103 degrees from Kyushu and appear to have been promoted by energy from that source. The distance 103 degrees has two factors which appear to concentrate energy at that distance. First, it is at the seventh node from large earthquakes (360/7*2 = 103) and second it is the distance at which seismic body waves are concentrated at the surface following reflection and refraction off the core-mantle boundary. These can lead to strong seismic enhancement at this distance following major earthquakes.

 

The M 2.8 near the Ohio-West Virginia border was reported by NEIC to have been widely felt with intensity up to IV at Reno, Ohio and III in Mount Vernon, Logan, Marietta, Newport, Hudson and Middleport and in West Virginia at Williamstown, Waverly, Saint Marys, Belmont, and Mount Pleasant and in Greenup, Kentucky with intensity II.

 

The M 3.1 near Oak Hill, Ohio was felt with intensity up to IV in Maryland, Ohio, West Virginia, III in Kentucky, Ontario, Canada, Florida, and Chicago, Illinois with light intensity as far as 500 km from the epicenter.

This earthquake may have been triggered by SFE from Solar Flare 2104 as

it occurred at the start of that M1.4 flare. Data from SWPC for this flare follow:

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

1100       2104   2112      2116   M1.4      (February 3, 2025)   1.5E-03  

Vancouver M 3.1 21:11 UT

Baja California M 3.2 21:08 UT

Ohio M 3.2 21:04 UT

 

Forecasts 169196 and 169459 had expected the M 2.1 in Missouri was likely at the end of January or in early February, 2025.

 

O:  3FEB2025 09:11:42  36.6N   89.6W MD=2.1  EMSC   SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI        

P:  7FEB2025 169459    36.0N   89.0W 2.0-3.9 BAAAA  New Madrid area            

P: 30JAN2025 169196    36.0N   90.0W 2.0-3.9 BAAAA  New Madrid area            

 

The earthquakes in Ohio continue seismic activity which accelerated following the Kyushu, Japan event. The event of M 3.2 is the strongest in Ohio since an M 3.3 on December 16, 2024 and an M 3.4 on June 3, 2017. The largest earthquake in

Ohio in the past 35 years was an M 3.6 on February 19, 1995.

 

Forecast 169529 and 169192 had expected events in Ohio were likely at the end of January or early February, 2025.

 

O:  3FEB2025 21:04:52  38.9N   82.6W ML=3.2  EMSC   OHIO                          

P:  5FEB2025 169528    40.0N   84.0W 2.0-4.1 ABAAA  Ohio/Lake Erie             

 

O:  3FEB2025 22:58:24  39.4N   81.4W ML=2.8  EMSC   OHIO                         

P:  5FEB2025 169528    40.0N   84.0W 2.0-4.1 AABAA  Ohio/Lake Erie              

P: 30JAN2025 169192    37.2N   81.9W 2.0-4.3 BBAAA  Kentucky/Tennessee/NC      

 

The second largest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.7-5.9 in the West Chile Rise west of Coquimbo, Chile. This epicenter is at 144 degrees from the M 6.8 of January 13, 2025 in Kyushu. Like the 103 degree distance from  major earthquakes seismic body waves concentrate at 144 degrees on the surface following reflection and refraction off the inner core-outer core boundary and help to trigger strong seismicity at this distance from major quakes. These two distances (103 and 144 degrees) are the boundaries of what is called "the shadow zone" - a distance between 103 and 144 degrees - where little seismic energy returns to the surface following major earthquakes. The energy is reflected and refracted to these two distances. A similar event occurred in the West Chile Rise on January 28, 2025. These are the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 5.9 on May 26, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The second strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.7 southeast of Easter Island, South Pacific Ocean. It was preceded by an M 5.2 foreshock about 32 minutes earlier.

 

This epicenter is at 145 degrees from the M 6.8 in Kyushu, Japan of January 13, 2025 - a distance at which seismic energy reflected and refracted off the inner-outer earth core boundary returns to the surface and also at the fifth node (72X2 degrees). Seismicity from strong earthquake often is seen to be enhanced at this distance following those earthquakes.

 

The mainshock was followed by an event of M 4.7 near local solar midnight and preceded by a foreshock about 30 minutes earlier of M 5.2. The last earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter near Easter Island with M>=5.7 occurred as an M 5.7 on November 25, 2020. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The earthquake of M 5.7 southeast of Easter Island today was the strongest event within about 200 km of this epicenter was an M 5.7-5.8 on April 10, 2010. The only other events of M>=5.7 in the area  occurred as events of M 5.7 on February 13, 1994 and December 7, 2001. No earthquakes of M>5.8 have occurred in this area in the past 30 years." (November 25, 2020)

 

Forecast 169077 had expected this event in mid-January within about 100 km

of this epicenter." (January 28, 2025)

 

O: 28JAN2025 00:29:10  41.1S   90.6W Mw=5.2  EMSC   SOUTHEAST OF EASTER ISLAND

O: 28JAN2025 00:59:48  41.2S   90.3W Mw=5.7  EMSC   SOUTHEAST OF EASTER ISLAND

O: 28JAN2025 06:49:08  41.5S   90.3W MB=4.7  EMSC   SOUTHEAST OF EASTER ISLAND   

P: 16JAN2025 169077    41.0S   91.0W 4.0-5.8 CAAAA  Chile Rise                 

 

Forecast 169609 had expected today's event within about 250 km in the Chile Rise

was likely around February 6, 2025.

 

O:  4FEB2025 01:40:34  38.9S   92.5W MW=5.7  EMSC   WEST CHILE RISE              

P:  6FEB2025 169609    41.0S   91.0W 4.0-5.8 ABAAA  Chile Rise                 

 

An M 4.9 also occurred in the Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge today. It was not reported felt in this area. The last event within about 250 km of this epicenter with  M>=4.9 was an M 5.4 on February 16, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

"The largest earthquake in the world today was an earthquake of M 5.4 which occurred in the Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge today. It was not reported felt in this remote region. This event occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and was probably promoted by strong tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. The last earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter with M>=5.4 occurred on January 3, 2023 with M 5.4-5.5 and prior to that as an M 6.5 on August 30, 2020." (February 16, 2023)

 

Like the event in the West Chile Rise, this epicenter in the Atlantic is at 147 degrees from the M 7.1 in Kyushu and was probably promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 169595 had expected today's event in the Mid-Atlantic Ridge was likely

within about 250 km of today's epicenter around February 7, 2025.

 

O:  4FEB2025 03:20:21  22.8S   12.8W MB=4.9  EMSC   SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE  

P:  7FEB2025 169595    20.0S   12.0W 4.0-5.8 BCAAA  So. Mid-Atlantic Ridge     

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.9-6.4 in the area of Talaud, Indonesia. BMG reported this event at M 6.2 was felt with intensity IV in Pulau Morotai and III in Talaud, Halmahera, Pulau and Ternate with II shaking in Minahas, Bitung, Halmahera among others. This is the location of the volcano Mt. Ibu which has been erupting for several weeks as noted in previous issues of this  summary. It is also north of Tropical Cyclone Taliah which formed south of today's epicenter several days ago and was noted in this summary as a possible source of energy for a local moderate earthquake as:  

 

"Tropical cyclones may be forming north of Australia. These include a storm at 14S 103E moving to the west with winds up to 33 kts. and a storm at 14S 120E moving to the west with winds up to 33 kts. Neither of these is strong at this time and are unlikely to enhance regional seismicity at this time. The storm at 120E could see minor enhancement of seismicity at its antipode in the Leeward Islands, Caribbean." (February 1, 2025)

 

Today's earthquake in Talaud and Halmahera Indonesia may have been triggered by SFE from Solar Flares 1100 and 1110 as it occurred at the peak of flare 1110. Data for these flares from SWPC follow:

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

1100       2104   2112      2116   M1.4      (February 3, 2025)   1.5E-03  

1110       2124   2135      2144   C5.9      (February 3, 2025)   6.2E-03  

Halmahera M 5.9 21:35 UT

Sumba M 4.7 21:30 UT

 

Today's earthquake in Halmahera is the strongest within about 200 km of today's epicenter since an M 6.6 on April 9, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.6 in Talaud, Indonesia. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to IV in Tobelo, Indonesia. PHIVOLCS  reported this earthquake of M  6.5 in Talaud, Indonesia was felt with intensity up to II in the area(s) of   Saranagani, City of Davao at Malungon and Glan.

BMG reported intensity IV in Ibu, Halmahera, Barat, Maluu; III in Kat Sangihe, Talaud, Siau, Halmeahera, Pulau Morotai, Tidore and Ternate among others. This is the strongest earthquake in the Molucca Sea and Talaud within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 7.0 on January 18, 2023 and may be an aftershock of that event." (April 9, 2024)

 

This epicenter is located at 101 degrees from the M 7.0 off Northern California and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 169365 had expected today's event within about 100 km was likely around February 5, 2025.

 

 

O: 03FEB2025 22:21:07   3.0N  128.2E ML=4.4  EMSC   HALMAHERA, INDONESIA

O:  3FEB2025 21:35:52   3.0N  128.2E MW=6.2  BMG    NORTH OF HALMAHERA, INDONESIA

O:  3FEB2025 21:35:52   3.0N  128.2E MW=5.9  EMSC   NORTH OF HALMAHERA, INDONESIA

P:  5FEB2025 169365     4.0N  128.0E 4.0-5.4 AAAAA  Halmahera                   

 

As Tropical Cyclone 15P passed through the Loyalty Islands today, it appears to have triggered an M 5.5-5.8 earthquake in the Loyalty Islands. The eye of this cyclone was at the epicenter of this earthquake when it occurred. This earthquake may also have been promoted by tidal stresses as it occurred within minutes of local solar midnight, a time when such stresses maximize.

 

"TC    15P      2025-02-04  00:00 UT  22.4S  171.2E  045 kts  Southern Vanuatu, Loyalty Is.     

 

Tropical Cyclone 15P continued today in the area of Vanuatu and the Loyalty Islands winds up to 45 kts.  This system is currently tracking to the southeast with winds up to 55 kts. It could help promoted aftershocks in southern Vanuatu and the Loyalty Islands as it passes through the area over the next several days." (February 3-4, 2025)

 

The last earthquake in the Loyalty Islands of M>=5.5 was an M 5.7 on April 19, 2024. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.7 in the Loyalty Islands. It was not reported felt in this remote area.  This event occurred near local solar midnight near the time of the full moon at a longitude which was expected to see maximum tidal stresses at this time. It was probably promoted by enhanced tidal stresses. The last earthquake with M>=5.5 in the Loyalty Islands was an M 5.8 on December 24, 2023. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.7 in the region of the Loyalty Islands and New Caledonia. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to IV in the epicentral zone. This is probably an aftershock of the M 7.1 in southern Vanuatu of December 8, the strongest to date." (December 17, 2023, April 19, 2024)

 

 

 

O:  3FEB2025 13:02:28  22.8S  171.2E MW=5.5  EMSC   SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS 

P:  4FEB2025 169590    22.0S  171.0E 4.0-5.6 AAAAA  Loyalty Islands            

 

The series of moderate earthquakes in the Dodecanese Island, Greece continued to intensify in number and magnitude today. The strongest of these in the past 24 hours was an M 5.1 and M 5.0 and M 4.9 near Oia, Greece. NEIC reported they were felt with intensity up to VII in Kamarion, Kiklades, Greece and in Iraklion, Greece at Iraklion and Gazion, Nexos, Kiklades, Greece IV in Paros, with lesser shaking (III) in Emborion and Ino Siros, Mesaria. EMSC reported moderate earthquakes in the Dodecanese Islands today were felt with moderate to strong

intensity in Greece at Thira, Mesaria, Marmara, Ermoupoli, Heraklion, Agops Myronas, Adelianos Kampos, Chania, Glyfada, Vrilissia, Amarousio, Nea Chalkidona, Piraeus, Fyli and in Turkey at Irmak among others. NEIC reported earthquakes of M 5.1, 4.9 in the Dodecanese Islands, Greece were felt with moderate intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Greece at Kamarion, Kiklades.

 

This series of earthquake in the Dodecanese Islands is antipodal to a strong South Pacific Ocean Storm. This unnamed storm has its current eye at 35S 155E according to maps of cloudiness at JTWC. A second storm (15P) is tracking towards the same location over the next week. If the focused energy from these storms is helping drive the activity in the Dodecanese Island, the current swarm could continue for at least another week and may be independent of local volcanism near Santorini.

 

This activity is at 142 degrees from the M 7.4 in Vanuatu of December 17, 2024 and at the seventh node (51.4 degrees) from the M 7.1 in Tibet of January 7, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.

 

Forecast 169439  had expected this activity in the Dodecanese Islands was  likely at the beginning of February, 2025. Following is a listing of events of M>=4 in the area in the past 24 hours, but many more at lesser magnitude have also occurred in the area.

         

O: 04FEB2025 02:50:21  36.5N   25.7E ML=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 07:09:06  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 07:36:23  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 07:42:48  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 07:45:08  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 07:59:02  36.6N   25.6E mb=4.5  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 08:10:19  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 08:13:08  36.6N   25.8E mb=4.8  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 08:17:24  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 08:26:29  36.6N   25.7E Mw=4.9  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 08:56:54  36.6N   25.5E ML=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 09:27:17  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 09:29:43  36.6N   25.7E Mw=5.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 11:21:00  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 12:38:49  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 13:52:51  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 20:39:17  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.7  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 01:19:38  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 01:27:10  36.6N   25.6E ML=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 02:46:08  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.8  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 03:03:53  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 05:05:36  36.6N   25.7E Mw=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 05:30:58  36.6N   25.7E Mw=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 06:09:14  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.7  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 06:37:57  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 06:55:19  36.6N   25.6E ML=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 09:48:59  36.7N   25.8E ML=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 11:50:48  36.7N   25.6E Mw=4.5  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 12:10:09  36.7N   25.7E ML=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 12:17:41  36.7N   25.7E Mw=5.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 13:05:05  36.7N   25.7E mb=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 17:45:03  36.7N   25.7E ML=4.8  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 20:30:33  36.7N   25.6E ML=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 04FEB2025 06:53:26  36.7N   25.7E ML=4.7  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O:  3FEB2025 20:19:40  36.5N   25.6E MB=4.9  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE   

P:  4FEB2025 169439    36.0N   26.0E 3.0-5.5 AAAAA  Aegean Sea                 

 

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today occurred in the Bering Strait of northwestern Alaska with M 4.6-5.0. This event and an M 4.0 aftershock were reported by NEIC to have been lightly felt at Wales, Alaska.

 

This is the strongest earthquake in the Bering Sea, Alaska within about 250 km  of this epicenter since an M 5.3 on February 21, 2012 and an M 5.2 on September 25, 2009. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.4-5.6 in the Bering Strait region off Alaska's northwest coast. It may have been felt in the Point

Hope and Kotzebue regions on the coast of Alaska but there have been no reports of damage associated with this earthquake. This earthquake was likely promoted by the new moon tidal alignment which was maximized in this region today as noted in our summary yesterday. The earthquake occurred near local midnight when tides were the highest. The last moderate earthquake in the Bering Strait, an M 4.4 on August 8, 2010 occurred a day before  the New Moon as did an M 4.3 on June 20, 2009. Today's earthquake is the strongest recorded in the Bering Strait region in at least 22 years. We have noted this tidal relation for the area in the past." (February 21, 2012) 

 

 

Forecast 169564 had expected enhanced seismicity in this region was likely in early February within about 150 km of this epicenter.

 

O:  3FEB2025 06:36:04  65.4N  169.1W MB=5.0  ANSS   BERING STRAIT, ALASKA        

O:  3FEB2025 06:36:08  65.4N  168.6W MW=4.6  EMSC   BERING STRAIT                

O: 04FEB2025 04:52:06  65.4N  168.5W mb=4.1  EMSC   BERING STRAIT

P:  2FEB2025 169564    67.1N  167.9W 3.2-5.3 AAAAA  Northern Alaska            

P:  2FEB2025 169564    67.1N  167.9W 3.2-5.3 ABAAA  Northern Alaska            

 

Two events, each of M 4.0 appear to have been promoted by tropical cyclones north of Australia today. These occurred in Vera Cruz, Mexico and the Dominican Republic at the exact antipode of Tropical Cyclones Taliak and Vince. This summary had expected at this activity at the antipode in this and previous issues as:

 

"Tropical Cyclone Taliak (14S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean north of western Australia with winds up to 105 kts.  It is expected to track to the west and south over the next several days. The antipode at 15N 69W is in the Caribbean Sea south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. It is likely that this area of the Caribbean will see enhanced seismicity while Taliak is active.

 

... and

 

Tropical Cyclone Vince (13S) continued today in the area of the south Indian Ocean north of western Australia with winds up to 125 kts.  It is expected to track to the west and south over the next several days. The antipode at 17N 90W is in Northern Guatemala, Chiapas, Mexico and Vera Cruz, Mexico and could help promote a moderate to strong earthquake in that area in the next couple of days." (February 3-4, 2025)

 

O:  4FEB2025 03:33:43  17.5N   94.7W ML=4.0  EMSC   VERACRUZ, MEXICO             

P:  3FEB2025 169401    17.0N   95.0W 3.5-5.4 AAAAA  Chiapas, Mexico            

 

O:  3FEB2025 11:48:13  19.1N   69.7W ML=4.0  EMSC   DOMINICAN REPUBLIC           

P:  5FEB2025 169424    20.0N   71.0W 3.0-4.6 AAAAA  Bahamas/No. Caribbean      

 

 

 

MODERATELY STRONG QUAKE SHAKES COQUIMBO, CHILE

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 2, 2025

 

 

The strongest earthquake in the world today was a moderately large M 5.1 (NEIC, EMSC) to 5.4 (SC4) in the region of Coquimbo, Chile. NEIC reported it was felt in La Ligua, Valparaiso 200 km from the epicenter. EMSC reported this event caused lots of noise and moderate shaking in Coquimbo with shaking for about 10-15 seconds at La Serena, Chile. CSN (GUC) reported this earthquake was felt with intensity V in  Coquimbo at Monte Patria, Andacollo; IV in Combarbala, Ovalle, Punitaqui, Rio Hurtado, Illapel, Paiguano, Vicuna, and III in Los Vilos, Coquimbo, La Serena, La Higuera, Chile. The last earthquake of M>=5.1 in Coquimbo Chile within about 200 km of today's epicenter occurred on December 30, 2024 (with the last new moon) with M 5.5, but the last of significantly larger magnitude was an M 6.2 on September 6, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"Two earthquakes of M 5.5 each were located within about a minute today in the area of Coquimbo, Chile. These were followed by a continuing series of moderate aftershocks and may lead to a stronger regional event. NEIC reported they were felt with intensity IV in La Serena, Coquimbo and Vicuna. EMSC reported moderate shaking in La Serena, Paiguano and Valparaiso. These events occurred near local solar midnight and were probably promoted by strong tidal stresses with today's new moon which maximized near this hour." (December 30, 2024)

 

and

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.2 in the Coquimbo, Chile area. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity VI in Coquimbo and La Serena and V in Ovalle, Coquimbo with III in Vicuna. In Valparaiso, Chile it was felt with intensity II-III in La Ligua, Quillota, Vina del Mar, Valparaiso, Villa Alemana, and in Santiago, Chile. When a series of smaller foreshocks hit the region on September 4, this summary noted in this regard:

 

"A moderate earthquake of M 4.1 also was recorded near Coquimbo, Chile today.

While other areas of Chile have been active in recent weeks, Coquimbo has been relatively quiet. Today's M 4.1 is the strongest in that area in more than a month - since an M 4.5 occurred on August 3, 2023. The only other such event in the region in the past two months was an M 4.7 about 150 km north of today's epicenter on July 27. Both these occurred at full and new moon alignments. Today's event occurred near local solar midnight near the full moon and all of these may be tidally reinforced." (September 4, 2023)

 

An earthquake of M 5.8 hit this region of Coquimbo on May 2, 2021 but the last event of M>=6.2 in Coquimbo within about 200 km of today's epicenter was  an M 6.3 exactly three years ago on September 6, 2020 but the last event in the area of significantly larger magnitude was an M 6.7 on January 20, 2019. At that time this summary noted in regard to the history of the area:

 

 

"The last earthquake in the Coquimbo area of central Chile within about 200 km  of today's M 6.7 with M>=6.7 occurred on November 11, 2015 with M 6.9. This was a regional aftershock about 200 km north of a great M 8.3 in the Coquimbo area which  occurred September 16, 2015." (January 20, 2019, September 6, 2023)

 

Today's M 5.1-5.4 quake in Coquimbo may have been promoted by SFE from solar flare 480 which began about the time of this earthquake. SWPC data for this flare follow:

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 480       1358   1404      1408   M5.1      (February 2, 2025)   1.2E-02  

Coquimbo M 5.1-5.4 13:54 UT

 

 

It is worth noting that this event in Coquimbo, Chile had been anticipated in

the previous issues of this summary, for example:

 

 

"The geomagnetic field was at its most disturbed levels in nearly a month. The planetary AP index was 27 with maximum KP reaching 7 about 15:00-21:00 UT. These are the highest AP levels since January 4, 2025. Global seismicity normally takes a couple of days to reflect the new geomagnetic regime. For example an M 7.1 in Tibet on January 7, 2025 is the strongest earthquake to date in the year 2025. A strong earthquake in the world, possibly in South America, is considered likely centering on February 5, 2025. The coast of South America remains under seismic watch conditions called yesterday by this summary. The most likely locale for a strong event at this time appears to be Coquimbo, Chile and/or San Juan, Argentina. This could be promoted by a strong solar flare or the current geomagnetic storm." (February 2, 2025)

 

This epicenter is at 103-105 degrees from the M 7.4 in Vanuatu of December 17, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 169339 had expected this activity in Central Chile within about 100 km

of this epicenter was likely at the end of January, 2025.

 

O:  2FEB2025 13:54:15  30.7S   71.5W MB=5.1  EMSC   COQUIMBO, CHILE              

O:  2FEB2025 13:54:15  30.7S   71.4W MB=4.8  GUC    COQUIMBO, CHILE              

O:  2FEB2025 13:54:15  30.7S   71.5W MB=5.4  SC4    COQUIMBO, CHILE              

P: 24JAN2025 169339    30.0S   71.0W 4.0-5.7 CAAAA  Coast Central Chile        

P: 24JAN2025 169339    32.0S   70.0W 4.0-5.8 CBAAA  Central Chile              

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today occurred in the Bering

Strait of northwestern Alaska with M 5.0. This is the strongest earthquake in the Bering Sea, Alaska within about 250 km of this epicenter since an M 5.3 on February 21, 2012 and an M 5.2 on September 25, 2009. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.4-5.6 in the Bering Strait region off Alaska's northwest coast. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III in Wales, Alaska. It may have been felt in the Point Hope and Kotzebue regions on the coast of Alaska but there have been no reports of damage associated with this earthquake. This earthquake was likely promoted by the new moon tidal alignment which was maximized in this region today as noted in our summary yesterday. The earthquake occurred near local midnight when tides were the highest. The last moderate earthquake in the Bering Strait, an M 4.4 on August 8, 2010 occurred a day before  the New Moon as did an M 4.3 on June 20, 2009. Today's earthquake is the strongest recorded in the Bering Strait region in at least 22 years. We have noted this tidal relation for the area in the past." (February 21, 2012) 

 

 

Forecast 169564 had expected enhanced seismicity in this region was likely in early February.

 

O:  3FEB2025 06:36:08  65.4N  168.7W MB=5.0  EMSC   BERING STRAIT                

O:  3FEB2025 06:36:04  65.4N  169.1W MB=5.0  ANSS   BERING STRAIT, ALASKA        

P:  2FEB2025 169564    67.1N  167.9W 3.2-5.3 ABAAA  Northern Alaska            

 

Nearly as large as the Bering Strait earthquake in Alaska, an M 4.4-4.9 earthquake occurred in the Haida Gwaii area of British Columbia today. The last event within about 100 km of this epicenter with M>=4.4 occurred on December 25, 2024 with M 4.9. A strong event of M 6.5 hit the area on September 15, 2024 and was noted in this summary at the time as:

 

"The last earthquake of M>=5.9  within about 100 km of today's epicenters in Vancouver was an M 6.3 on December 25, 2019, part of a series of events in the area that started with two of M 6.0 on December 23, 2019." (September 16, 2024)

 

Forecasts 169274 and 169547 had expected a moderate earthquake in this region was likely iin late January or early February 2025.

 

O:  3FEB2025 00:25:37  51.6N  130.8W MB=4.4  EMSC   HAIDA GWAII REGION           

O:  3FEB2025 00:25:32  51.3N  131.2W MB=4.9  ECAN SSE OF DAAJING GIIDS, BC       

P:  4FEB2025 169547    50.5N  130.4W 3.0-5.3 AAAAA  British Colombia           

P: 28JAN2025 169274    50.6N  130.5W 3.0-5.4 BAAAA  British Colombia           

 

The series of moderate earthquakes in the Dodecanese Island, Greece continued to intensify in number and magnitude today. The strongest of these in the past 24 hours was an M 5.0 near Oia, Greece. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity V in Nexos, Kiklades, Greece IV in Paros, with lesser shaking (III) in Emborion and Ino Siros, Mesaria. EMSC reported moderate earthquakes in the Dodecanese Islands today were felt with moderate to strong intensity in Greece at Thira, Mesaria, Marmara, Ermoupoli, Heraklion, Agops Myronas, Adelianos Kampos, Chania, Glyfada, Vrilissia, Amarousio, Nea Chalkidona, Piraeus, Fyli and in Turkey at Irmak among others.

 

An earthquake of M 4.7 in the Aegean Sea north of the Dodecanese Islands was also felt today. EMSC reported it was felt with moderate shaking up to V in Greece at Patitiri, Nea Erythraia Amarousio, Athens, Metamorfosi, Makryrrachi, Irakleio, Chalandri, Cholargos, Volos, Tavros, Nea Ionia, Piraeus, Palaio Faliro. This event may have been triggered by S-waves from an M 2.7 in the Dodecanese Islands two minutes earlier which was also widely felt. This is looking a bit like the seismicity at Mt. St. Helens, Washington prior to the eruption of that volcano in May, 1980 and could indicate a strong eruption near Santorini in the near future. Maximization of the current swarm may occur as tropical cyclone 15P passes near the antipode of Greece next week. Should this cyclone continue it would pass near the antipode of the Dodecanese Islands around February 9, 2025, but this storm is likely to dissipate before it reaches that point. Currently TC 15P is located in the Loyalty Islands and has been forecast in this summary to trigger a moderately strong earthquake in that region in the next several days as:

 

"Tropical Cyclone 15P formed today in the area of Vanuatu and the Loyalty Islands winds up to 55 kts.  This system is currently tracking to the southeast with winds up to 55 kts. It could help promoted aftershocks in southern Vanuatu and the Loyalty Islands as it passes through the area over the next several days." (February 2-3, 2025)

 

Following is a listing of events in this region in the past 24 hour of M>=4.

A more extensive listing can be found under the "EUROPE" section of this summary.

 

Forecast 169439 had expected enhanced regional seismicity in the Dodecanese Islands within about 100 km of these events was likely in early February, 2025.

 

O: 02FEB2025 06:48:09  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 02FEB2025 07:22:05  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.8  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 02FEB2025 08:37:04  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 02FEB2025 09:14:23  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 02FEB2025 11:04:15  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 02FEB2025 11:35:35  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 02FEB2025 11:41:28  36.6N   25.7E Mw=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 02FEB2025 11:53:45  36.6N   25.6E Mw=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 02FEB2025 12:55:43  36.6N   25.7E Mw=4.7  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 02FEB2025 13:32:31  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 02FEB2025 17:41:22  36.6N   25.7E Mw=4.7  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 02FEB2025 17:45:44  36.6N   25.6E mb=4.9  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 02FEB2025 18:25:30  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 02FEB2025 18:27:47  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 02FEB2025 20:14:25  36.6N   25.6E mb=4.6  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 02FEB2025 22:05:24  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 02FEB2025 23:54:42  36.6N   25.7E Mw=4.5  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 01:59:30  36.6N   25.6E mb=4.1  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 04:20:41  36.6N   25.6E mb=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 05:10:46  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 03FEB2025 05:11:50  36.6N   25.8E ML=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O:  3FEB2025 09:29:43  36.6N   25.6E MW=5.0  ANSS   NE OF O├¡A GREECE            

O:  3FEB2025 02:30:12  37.4N   25.6E ML=3.6  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE   

P: 26JAN2025 169173    36.0N   26.0E 3.0-4.7 CAAAA  Aegean Sea                 

P:  4FEB2025 169439    36.0N   26.0E 3.0-5.5 AAAAA  Aegean Sea                 

 

 

An earthquake of M 2.2 occurred today north of New York City, New York. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III in New York at Saint Regis Falls and in New Jersey and intensity II in Brushton, Dickinson Center, New York. This earthquake is located at 102 degrees from the earthquake in Kyushu, Japan of  January 13, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from that source. It joins a number of other regionally significant quakes in the eastern U.S. at this distance from Kyushu since that mainshock. This includes the M 2.4 in Illinois today (see below). Like many of these in the northeast U.S. it is also at 105 degrees from the M 7.1 in Tibet of January 7, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy associated with that event.

 

O:  2FEB2025 07:56:43  44.7N   74.7W ML=2.2  EMSC   NEW YORK                     

P: 26JAN2025 169250    45.0N   73.0W 2.0-3.9 CABAA  New England                

 

 

An M 2.4 also shook areas of Illinois and Missouri today. NEIC reported this earthquake was felt with intensity IV in Missouri at Jerculaneum, Imperial; III in Crystal City, Festus, Pevely; II in Barnhart with lesser shaking in southern Illinois. This earthquake is located at 102 degrees from the earthquake in Kyushu, Japan of  January 13, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from that source. It joins a number of other regionally significant quakes in the eastern U.S. at this distance from Kyushu since that mainshock. This includes the M 2.2 north of New York City today (see above).

 

An aftershock of M 2.0 also occurred early on February 2, 2025 in the area of York Harbor, Maine. NEIC reported it was lightly felt with intensity II in Maine at Kittery Point and York. NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.0 in Maine was felt with moderate intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Massachusetts at Sterling; III in Newburyport and II in Reading, Amesbury, Salisbury and Foxboro.

This event (like those noted above in New York and Illinois) occurred at 102-103 degrees from Kyushu, Japan and was probably promoted by energy from that source.

This event in Maine coincided within about 2 minutes with the M 4.7 in the area of Santorini, Greece.

 

This event in Maine may have been promoted by SFE from solar flare 460 - a strong M1.4 flare as it occurred near the peak output of that event. SWPC data for this flare follow:

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 460       1241   1250      1300   M1.4      (February 2, 2025)   1.1E-02  

Maine M 2.0 12:58 UT

Dodecanese M 4.8 12:56 UT

 

Forecast 169244 had expected this event in Maine was likely at the end of January or early February, 2025.

 

O:  2FEB2025 12:57:59  43.1N   70.5W ML=2.0  EMSC   MAINE                        

P: 26JAN2025 169244    44.0N   69.0W 2.0-4.3 CAAAA  Maine                      

 

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM AND TIDES ENHANCE GLOBAL SEISMICITY

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 1, 2025

 

 

The geomagnetic field was at its most disturbed levels in nearly a month. The planetary AP index was 27 with maximum KP reaching 7 about 15:00-21:00 UT. These are the highest AP levels since January 4, 2025. Global seismicity normally takes a couple of days to reflect the new geomagnetic regime. For example an M 7.1 in Tibet on January 7, 2025 is the strongest earthquake to date in the year 2025. A strong earthquake in the world, possibly in South America, is considered likely centering on February 5, 2025. The coast of South America remains under seismic watch conditions called yesterday by this summary. The most likely locale for a strong event at this time appears to be Coquimbo, Chile and/or San Juan, Argentina. This could be promoted by a strong solar flare of the current geomagnetic storm.

 

An unusual earthquake of M 4.9 (NEIC) to M 5.2 (SSNC) hit the area north of Honduras today. This was the second strongest event in the world today following an M 5.1 in the Loyalty Islands. Both appear to have been promoted by tidal stresses. The event in Honduras occurred within minutes of local solar noon and was probably promoted by tidal stresses which maximize near this hour, while the Loyalty Islands event occurred within minutes of local solar midnight, another time of maximized tidal stresses.

 

The last earthquake of M>=4.9 within about 150 km of this epicenter north of Honduras occurred two years ago as an M 5.5 on February 8, 2023. This earthquake in 2023 occurred as the eye of Tropical Cyclone Dingani had passed over the antipode the day of the Honduras earthquake, February 7-8, 2023. At the time this summary had made the connection between these two events as:

 

 

"TC    DINGANI  2023-02-09  00:00 UT  16.3S   89.1E   50 kts  South of Sumatra            

 

TC Dingani (13S) formed today in the region south of India and Sumatra with winds up to 50 kts. Promoted seismicity with this system is unlikely at this time. The antipode of this storm is in Guatemala and Chiapas/Yucatan Mexico. Some promoted seismicity may occur in that area." (February 9, 2023)

 

This situation is exactly analogous to the current situation. At the present the eye of Tropical Cyclone 13S is exactly antipodal to the epicenter of the M 4.9 in Honduras today. It appears the event in Honduras was triggered by energy focused at the antipode of TC 13S as noted in this summary:

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S                   

 

----  -------  ----------  --------  -----  ------  -------  ---------------

TC    13S      2025-02-02  00:00 UT  17.1S   94.3E  050 kts  north of western Australia   

 

Tropical Cyclone 13S formed today in the area of the south Indian Ocean north of western Australia with winds up to 50 kts.  It is expected to track to the west and south over the next several days. The antipode at 17N 86W is in the Caribbean Sea north of Honduras. An M 4.9 at that location today was most likely triggered by antipodal energy from TC 13. and to turn south as it reaches La Reunion. It may encourage volcanism in the area of La Reunion and could continue south to areas antipodal to Baja and Southern California. The current antipode is at 16N 107W near Jalisco and Michoacan, Mexico where antipodal effects could enhance seismicity at this time.

 

A second Tropical Cyclone off northern Australia may be forming as noted in the previous issue of this summary:

 

"Tropical cyclones may be forming north of Australia. These include a storm at 14S 103E moving to the west with winds up to 33 kts. and a storm at 14S 120E moving to the west with winds up to 33 kts. Neither of these is strong at this time and are unlikely to enhance regional seismicity at this time. The storm at 120E could see minor enhancement of seismicity at its antipode in the Leeward Islands, Caribbean." (February 1, 2025)

 

Forecast 169143 had expected today's event north of Honduras within about 50

km of the epicenter was likely in late January, 2025.

 

O:  1FEB2025 17:48:29  17.0N   85.6W MW=4.9  EMSC   NORTH OF HONDURAS            

P: 23JAN2025 169143    17.0N   86.0W 3.5-5.4 CAAAA  Nicaragua                  

 

An M 4.1 several minutes after the Honduras event of M 4.9 occurred in the Virgin Islands today. It is near the antipode of this cyclone off Australia and may have been promoted by focused antipodal energy as well. A foreshock in the Cayman Islands, Caribbean was located by SSNC with M 4.2 about 300 km east of the Honduras event and was also antipodal to TC 13S.

 

Forecast 169136 had expected enhanced seismicity in the Virgin Islands was

likely around January 31, 2025.

 

O:  1FEB2025 18:16:25  19.4N   64.0W MD=4.1  EMSC   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION        

P: 31JAN2025 169136    18.0N   65.0W 3.0-5.1 ABAAA  Leeward Islands            

 

An M 4.8 also occurred today in the region of San Juan, Argentina. It was not reported felt due to its intermediate depth at 105 km . But, like the later event in Honduras, this earthquake occurred within several minutes of local solar noon and was probably promoted by tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. It was nearly sub-solar at the time of occurrence.

 

Forecast 169339 had expected this earthquake in Argentina was likely within  about 100 km of this epicenter around January 29, 2025.

 

O:  1FEB2025 16:28:55  31.5S   68.7W MB=4.8  EMSC   SAN JUAN, ARGENTINA          

P: 29JAN2025 169339    31.0S   68.0W 4.0-5.6 AAAAA  Central Chile              

 

Another earthquake, the largest in the world today - of M 5.1 in the area southeast of the Loyalty Islands  - also appears to have been triggered by tidal stresses. This event occurred within a couple of minutes of local solar midnight, another hour when tidal stresses on the earth are at maximum. This event occurred as a new tropical cyclone was approaching the Loyalty Islands and may have been promoted by stresses related to that storm as noted in this summary:

 

A tropical cyclone may be forming west of Vanuatu. This system is currently located at 19S 164E and tracking to the southeast with winds up to 28 kts. It could help promoted aftershocks in southern Vanuatu and the Loyalty Islands as it passes through the area over the next several days.

 

Forecast 169327 had expected enhanced seismicity within about 100 km of this

epicenter was likely at the end of January or early February, 2025.

 

O:  1FEB2025 12:43:29  23.0S  171.4E MB=5.1  EMSC   SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS 

P: 24JAN2025 169327    22.0S  171.0E 4.0-5.8 CAAAA  Loyalty Islands            

 

Seismicity also continued to increase in the Dodecanese Islands today. The  largest events in the area today were M 4.8-4.9 (NEIC), the largest to date in this swarm and an M 4.4 (NEIC) to M 4.7 (IPMA, IGEO); M 4.3-M 4.5. NEIC reported these earthquakes were felt with intensity III in Kiklades, Greece at Mesaria, Naousa, Paros and Ino Siros. An M 4.7 was also recorded in the area early on February 2. NEIC reported it was felt with moderate intensity in Greece at Thira, Santorini, Lakkio, Kalymnos, Agios Kirykos, Ilioupoli and slightly in Turkey at Bahcelievler among others. This summary had noted the seismicity of this region in the previous issue as:

 

 

"The swarm of earthquake in the Dodecanese Islands of Greece continued today.

This series is near the volcanically active area of Santorini. Local geoscientists fear this may precede an eruption of the local volcanic sites. While a massive volcanic eruption near 1600 BC at this location changed the history of Europe, there have been minor episodes such as the current activity in recent years which did not end in volcanism. This activity began near the new moon of January 29, 2025 and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses from that alignment. This summary has been following these events over the past several days. The strongest earthquake in this swarm to date occurred today as an M 4.3 at 12:51 UT. In the previous issue it was noted:

 

 

"NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.4 in Attiki, Greece was felt with moderate intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Attiki, Greece at Amarousion, Athens, Kapandrition, Neon, Viron, Ayios Paneleimon and II in Melissia, Moskhaton, Vrilissia, Zefirion, Aghios Dimitrios and in Kimi Evvoia. The area of Greece has seen enhanced seismicity with the new moon of January 29 as it lies at a latitude where tidal stresses were maximized with that new moon as reported in previous issues of this summary:

 

"A strong series of minor earthquakes has been occurring in the Dodecanese Islands of Greece over the past day. It is expected to continue through the end of January. These epicenters are at a longitude which is at local solar midnight when the new moon occurs on January 29, 2025 (see above) and could be enhanced

at that time." (January 29, February 1, 2025)

 

The Dodecanese Islands swarm became more activated today following a strong M3.0 class solar flare beginning at about 10:00 UT (12:00 Local solar time in Greece) at local solar noon in the Dodecanese Islands. This could have triggered more and stronger seismicity in the area in coming days and hours. The M 4.7 in the Dodecanese Islands occurred at 12:55 UT at the peak of a second M1.4 solar flare. SWPC preliminary data for these flare follow:

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

XXXX       1000   1012      1050   M3.0        (February 2, 2025)  3.0E-02

XXXX       1241   1250      1300   M1.4        (February 2, 2025)  1.1E-02

 

While dozens of earthquakes of M 3.0-3.9 have occurred in this swarm, we list here those with M>=4 today. A more extensive listing can be found in the "EUROPE" section of this summary.

 

These earthquakes are located at 142 degrees from the M 7.4 in Vanuatu of

December 17, 2024 and at the seventh node (51.4 degrees) from the M 7.1 in Tibet of January 7, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.

 

Forecast 169173 had expected enhanced seismicity within about 100 km of these events was likely to occur in late January or early February, 2025.

 

O: 01FEB2025 12:51:46  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 01FEB2025 13:29:56  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.4  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 02FEB2025 06:48:09  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O: 02FEB2025 07:22:05  36.6N   25.7E mb=4.8  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O:  1FEB2025 10:16:37  36.6N   25.7E MW=4.0  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE   

P: 26JAN2025 169173    36.0N   26.0E 3.0-4.7 BAAAA  Aegean Sea                 

 

Moderate aftershocks also continued following the M 5.5-5.8 earthquake on February 1 in Ecuador. The largest of these was an M 5.0 (EMSC) to M 5.1 (NEIC). NEIC reported these events were felt with moderate shaking up to IV in Tena Napo, Ecuador and III in Ecuador at Quito and Sangolqui, Pichincha and Latacunga, Cotopaxi.

 

Forecast 169103 had expected this activity in Ecuador was likely within about 100 km of these epicenters in late January or early February, 2025.

 

O: 01FEB2025 11:27:31   0.8S   78.1W ML=4.3  EMSC   ECUADOR

O:  1FEB2025 11:05:50   0.8S   78.1W MB=5.0  EMSC   ECUADOR                      

P: 26JAN2025 169103     1.0S   77.0W 4.0-5.8 BAAAA  Ecuador                    

 

A light earthquake of M 3.6 was recorded by EMSC today in the area of Ukraine.

This is the largest earthquake recorded in this area in the past nine years.

Only three events of M>=3.6 have been recorded in Ukraine in the past 35 years – an M 4.8 on August 7, 2015; an M 4.5 on June 23, 2013 and an M 3.7 on December 25, 2007. Seismicity in the area of Ukraine had been discussed in the August 7, 2016 issue of this summary as:

 

"An unusual earthquake of M 4.6 occurred in Ukraine today. EMSC reported it was felt with intensity up to V in Ukraine at Topolyne, Staryi Krym, Sartana, Mariupol, Novotroits'ke, Marinka, Donetsk, Ilovais'k, Berdyans'k, Yasynavatu, Khartsyz'k, Ukraine and in Russia at Taganrog, Eysk, and in general within about 100 km of the epicenter. This event, which occurred within about an hour of local solar noon, may have been promoted by tidal stresses which maximize at this time. The longitude  was consistent with maximum tidal stresses at this time ...

 

 

The earthquake in Ukraine is the strongest since an M 5.5 on November 9, 2002 and the second strongest in the area in the past 25 years." (August 7, 2016)

 

O:  1FEB2025 16:21:17  49.6N   34.3E MB=3.6  EMSC   UKRAINE                      

 

An earthquake of M 2.2 occurred today north of New York City, New York. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III in New York at Saint Regis Falls and in New Jersey and intensity II in Brushton, Dickinson Center, New York. This is the strongest earthquake in the area within about 150 km of this epicenter since an M 2.4 on January 1, 2025 and before that an M 2.8 on July 29, 2024.

 

This earthquake is located at 102 degrees from the earthquake in Kyushu, Japan of January 13, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from that source. It joins a number of other regionally significant quakes in the eastern U.S. at this distance from Kyushu since that mainshock. This includes the M 2.4 in Illinois today (see below). Like many of these in the northeast U.S. it is also at 105 degrees from the M 7.1 in Tibet of January 7, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy associated with that event.

 

O:  2FEB2025 07:56:43  44.7N   74.7W ML=2.2  EMSC   NEW YORK                     

P: 26JAN2025 169250    45.0N   73.0W 2.0-3.9 CABAA  New England                

 

 

An M 2.4 also shook areas of Illinois and Missouri today. NEIC reported this earthquake was felt with intensity IV in Missouri at Jerculaneum, Imperial; III in Crystal City, Festus, Pevely; II in Barnhart with lesser shaking in southern Illinois. The last earthquake Illinois within about 100 km of today's epicenter with M>=2.4 was recorded by NEIC on January 21, 2025 about 50 km south of today's epicenter with M 2.4 and on September 26, 2024 with M 2.4 about 50 km north of today's epicenter.

 

This earthquake is located at 102 degrees from the earthquake in Kyushu, Japan of  January 13, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from that source. It joins a number of other regionally significant quakes in the eastern U.S. at this distance from Kyushu since that mainshock. This includes the M 2.2 north of New York City today (see above).

 

An aftershock of M 2.0 also occurred early on February 2, 2025 in the area of York Harbor, Maine. NEIC reported it was lightly felt with intensity II in Maine at Kittery Point and York. This event (like those noted above in New York and Illinois) occurred at 102-103 degrees from Kyushu, Japan and was probably promoted by energy from that source. This event in Maine coincided within about 2 minutes with the M 4.7 in the area of Santorini, Greece (see above).

 

An M 4.7-5.3 earthquake east of Seddon, New Zealand followed the unusual M 3.7 north of this event 30 minutes later today.  GEONET reported this earthquake was felt with light to moderate intensity in the area southeast of Seddon, New Zealand and in southern North Island and northern South Island. 582 reports of felt events were made of which 438 reported weak and 135 with light intensity with 9 reports of moderate shaking and 0 with strong and 0 severe and 0 with extreme intensity came from the area.  NEIC reported intensity III in Canterbury, South Island, New Zealand at Akaroa, Lyttelton, Christchurch and in Marlborough at Blenheim, and Seddon. This earthquake is the strongest within about 150 km off the east coast of South Island New Zealand since an M 5.4 on October 12, 2015. At the time

this summary noted:

 

 

"GeoNet reported an earthquake of M 4.4 was felt with moderate intensity east of Pongaroa, North Island, New Zealand. Felt with weak to moderate intensity throughout most of southern North Island with maximum intensity at Dannevirke and Awapuni, New Zealand. The event of M 4.1 was felt with moderate intensity east of Pongaroa, North Island, New Zealand. Felt with weak to moderate intensity throughout most of southern North Island including areas from Kapiti and Carterton north to Waipuku and Kimbolton, North Island, New Zealand. These are aftershocks of the earlier M 5.7 which was widely felt in New Zealand causing light damage in the region.  The last earthquake of M>=5.4 within about 150 km of this epicenter occurred on September 22, 2014 (M 5.4). The last of M>=5.8 on January 20, 2014 with M 6.2." (October 12, 2015)

 

This earthquake in New Zealand is at 107 degrees from the M 7.1 in Tibet of

January 7, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 169350 had expected enhanced seismicity in this area was likely at the end of January, 2025.

 

O:  1FEB2025 08:45:10  32.5S  176.5E ML=3.7  EMSC   NORTH OF NEW ZEALAND         

P: 19JAN2025 169072    35.0S  179.0E 3.0-4.4 DCCAA  North Island, N.Z.         

 

O: 31JAN2025 22:23:34  40.3S  176.1E ML=3.4  EMSC   NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND  

O:  1FEB2025 09:26:40  42.3S  174.9E MW=4.7  EMSC   OFF E. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z

O:  1FEB2025 09:26:40  42.3S  174.9E MW=5.3  GEONET OFF E. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z

O:  1FEB2025 09:26:39  42.3S  175.0E MW=4.7  EMSC   OFF E. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z

O: 01FEB2025 09:26:40  42.3S  174.9E mw=4.7  ANSS   Houghton Bay New Zealand

P: 27JAN2025 169350    41.0S  174.0E 3.0-4.9 BBAAA  So. Island, N.Z.            

 

 

STRONG ANTIPODAL PAIR IN SUMATRA; THEN ECUADOR; SOUTH AMERICA WATCH EXTENDED

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 31, 2025

 

 

A strong M 5.8 (EMSC, NEIC) to 6.2 (BMG, GEONET) earthquake occurred today in northern Sumatra, Indonesia. It was followed later in the day by a moderately strong M 5.5-5.8 near the antipode in Ecuador. This type of antipodal triggering is common between large events in Northern South America and Sumatra, Indonesia as previously discussed in this summary.

 

For example when the last earthquake hit Ecuador with M>=5.5 on March 18, 2023 (M 6.8)  it was followed by an M 6.1 in northern Sumatra on April 3, 2023. At that time this summary noted the antipodal nature of these events as:

 

 

"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.1-6.4 in the region of Northern Sumatra, Indonesia. NEIC reported maximum intensity IV in Sumatra at Gunung Stoli, Kabanjahe, Padang, and II-III in Payakumbuh, and in Malaysia at Klang, Bandar Baru, Shah Alam, Selangor, Subang Jaya, Kuala Lumpur and Ayer Molek. This epicenter is very close to the antipode of the M 6.7 in Ecuador on March 18, 2023 and was probably promoted by antipodal focusing of seismic waves from Ecuador. This possibility had been raised when the earthquake in Venezuela occurred on March 18 in this summary as:

 

The antipode of today's event in Ecuador is at 3N 100E in the Andaman Islands, India and Sumatra Indonesia which is an active seismic zone. Seismic enhancement in this area is likely. A minor earthquake hit at the antipode yesterday" (March 18, 2023)

 

The last earthquake of M>=5.8 in northern Sumatra within about 250 km of today's epicenter occurred as an M 5.9 on May 27, 2024 but the last such event of M>6.2 was an M 6.6 on May 14, 2021. At that time this summary noted:

 

"Today's earthquake in the Nias area of Indonesia is the strongest in more than 30 years. An M 6.8 was recorded about 300 km to the southwest of today's epicenter on October 15, 1990. The only earthquake of M>=5.6 in the area since 1990 was an M 5.9 on June 12, 2018. The antipode to today's event is in Ecuador

at 0N 83W, and may see enhanced antipodal seismicity in the next several days."(May 14, 2021)

 

BMG reported today’s earthquake was felt with damage at intensity VIII in Simeulue Barat, Simeulue, and Aceh, Sumatra and IV in Kab. Aceh Selatan, Ba

kongan, Kluet, Labuhan Haji, Meulek, Sawang, Kluet, and Kota; in Aced Utara at Sawang; at Barat Daya at Blang Pidie, Rangan, Manggeng, Susoh, Setia, Lembah Sabil and in Lombok Timur at Labuhan Haji. Lesser shaking at intensity III was reported from Kab Aceh Selatan, Tenggara, Timur, Tengah, Barat, Utara, Barat Daya, Jaya, Tamiang, Pidie, Simeulue, Bireuen, Gayo Lucs, Nagan Raya, Meriah, Ihokseumawe, Langsa, among others. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Banda Aceh and II in Medan, Northern Sumatra.

 

News reports on the internet indicate this event shook buildings and caused panic among residents who rushed from their houses and hospitals and who recalled the M>9.1 earthquake of December 26, 2004 near this location which triggered a tsunami killing more that 250,000 people around the Indian Ocean. No tsunami threat has been identified with today's earthquake. There were no immediate reports of major damage or casualties from today's earthquake.

 

The earthquake Sumatra may have been triggered by SFE from solar flare 9710, a C4.8 class event as it occurred when this flare output was near maximum. Data for this flare from SWPC follow:

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

9710       1101   1108      1116   C4.8      (January 31, 2025)   4.1E-03  

No Sumatra M 5.8-6.2 11:03 UT

 

These earthquakes in Sumatra are at the third node (120 degrees) from the M 7.0 off Northern California of December 5, 2024 and at the fifth node (72 degrees) from the M 7.4 in Vanuatu of December 17, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from those sources. Other notable earthquakes today at the fifth node from Vanuatu included the M 5.0 in the Near Islands, Alaska and an M 4.5 in the Fox Islands, Alaska.

 

Forecast 169095 had expected a moderately strong earthquake in Sumatra within  about 200 km of today's epicenter was likely at the end of January, 2025.

 

O: 31JAN2025 11:24:30   3.1N   96.9E ML=2.7  EMSC   NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA

O: 31JAN2025 11:17:58   3.2N   97.0E ML=3.8  EMSC   NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA

O: 31JAN2025 11:03:42   3.3N   97.1E MB=5.8  EMSC   NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA  

O: 31JAN2025 11:03:42   3.2N   97.0E ML=5.8  NEIC   Northern Sumatra        

O: 31JAN2025 11:03:42   2.9N   97.2E MB=6.2  GEONET NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA  

O: 31JAN2025 11:03:42   2.9N   97.2E MB=6.2  BMG    NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA  

P: 24JAN2025 169095     1.0N   98.0E 4.0-5.4 CCAAA  So. Sumatera               

 

The earthquake in Ecuador of M 5.5 (NEIC) to 5.7 (GFZ) was reported by NEIC with slight damage and intensity VII in Napo, Ecuador at Archidona and Tena and VI in Tulcan, Carchi; IV was felt in Quito, Pichincha, and in Tungurahua at Banos, Pillaro and in Eloy Alfar, Guayas, Ecuador. The local network (QUI) gave this event M 5.8 as did BGS. It was followed by a series of moderate aftershocks. EMSC reported very strong shaking in Ecuador at Quito, Mindo where it opened windows. Al felt strongly at La joya de los Sachas and with moderate intensity at Samborondon, Ecuador.

 

This is the strongest earthquake in Ecuador or northern Peru within about 200 km of this epicenter in nearly two years. An M 6.8 hit south of this on March 18, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

A strong M 6.7-6.8 hit the coast of Western Ecuador and northern Peru today.

NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity IX at Balao, Guayas, Ecuador; VIII in Naranjito; VI in Naranjal, VI in Plahyas, Guayaquil, Santa Lucia, Cuenca Azuay, V in Samborondon, Eloy Alfaro among others. Initial news reports indicate extensive but minor damage to buildings and structures with at least eleven people killed in the quake including one in Peru. Much of the damage and casualties occurred in Cuenca and Machala when walls collapsed. The epicenter was near Balao about two hours from Guayaquil. It was felt in at least 13 provinces of Ecuador. Many communities lost power and a two-story home and wharf collapsed. No tsunami was observed nor expected. 

 

The time of this earthquake in Ecuador was within about 12 minutes of local solar noon at a longitude near the longitude of maximum tidal stress (see above) with the coming new moon.  It is likely this earthquake was promoted by strong tidal stresses associated  with this new moon ...

 

 

Today's earthquake of M 6.7 is the strongest in Ecuador within about 200 km of this epicenter in at least 35 years. An M 7.5 hit about 300 km northeast of this on February 22, 2019 and another was an M 7.1 on August 12, 2010. These were both at intermediate epicenters and were felt on the surface with moderate intensity as reported on February 22, 2019:

 

 

"A major earthquake of M 7.5 (EMSC) to 7.7 (IGP) hit the coast of Ecuador today. It occurred at an intermediate depth of 132 km and was felt with moderate intensity throughout much of Ecuador. NEIC reported maximum intensity V-VII in Ecuador was felt at Gualaceo, Azuay, Guayaquil, Loja, Eloy Alfaro, Puebloviejo (VI), La Troncal, Azogues (VII), Gualaceo,  Ecuador in Peru at Piura, Tarapoto, Iquitos, Jaen, Yunmaguas, Tumbes (VII), and with intensity VI in Ecuador at Puyo Pastaca, Banos, Tungurahua, Ambato, Cuenca, Zamora, Santa Lucia, Machala, Playas Guayas, Portoviejo, Manta, Salinas and in Peru at Moyobamba, Colan, Huanchanco, and in general within about 1000 km from the epicenter. IGP reported intensity V in Pastaza with an aftershock of M 5.7 felt with III in Zarumilla, Peru. Some damage was reported. News sources on the web reported  NEIC reported this aftershock at M 5.5 was felt in Ecuador with intensity V in Guayaquil, and Santa Lucia, and II-III in Ecuador at Eloy Alfara, Guayas, Cuenca Azuay, Machala, Pajan, Santa Elena, Montecristi, Banos and Manta, Ecuador. No injuries were associated with the quake. This was probably due to the intermediate depth. A shallow quake would have caused considerable damage and destruction. A slightly larger quake of M 7.8 on April 16, 2016 killed more than 700 people and destroyed hundreds of buildings and cost more than $3 billion in damages. Earthquakes of this size in Ecuador can help promote seismicity in California several months later. This summary will follow this in future issues.

 

...

 

The last earthquake located within about 250 km of today's M 7.5 occurred more than 30 years ago. The only comparable event in the region in this time period was the M 7.8 off Ecuador on April 16, 2016. That event occurred about 350 km northwest of today's epicenter." (February 22, 2019, March 18, 2023)

 

 

The mainshock was followed by a series of light to moderate aftershocks.

 

This earthquake in Ecuador is at 148 degrees from the M 7.1 in Tibet of January 1, 2025 and at 140 degrees from the M 6.8 in Kyushu, Japan of January 7, 2025 and at the sixth node from the M 7.0 off Northern California of December 5, 2024 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 169103 had expected a moderately large earthquake was likely in Ecuador

within about 10-100 km of today's epicenter at the end of January, 2025.

 

O: 01FEB2025 01:49:39   0.9S   78.1W ML=3.7  EMSC   ECUADOR

O: 01FEB2025 01:50:47   0.9S   78.1W ML=4.0  EMSC   ECUADOR

O: 01FEB2025 11:05:50   0.9S   78.1W mb=5.1  EMSC   ECUADOR

O: 31JAN2025 23:02:28   0.9S   77.9W mb=5.5  EMSC   ECUADOR

O: 31JAN2025 23:02:29   0.8S   78.1W MB=5.5  ANSS   WNW OF ARCHIDONA ECUADOR     

O: 31JAN2025 23:10:14   0.7S   77.1W ML=5.8  BGS    ECUADOR

O: 31JAN2025 23:10:14   0.9S   77.9W ML=5.8  QUI    ECUADOR

O: 31JAN2025 23:12:57   0.9S   78.2W ML=3.5  EMSC   ECUADOR

O: 31JAN2025 23:15:10   0.9S   78.2W ML=3.6  EMSC   ECUADOR

P: 26JAN2025 169103     1.0S   77.0W 4.0-5.8 BAAAA  Ecuador                    

 

 

Enhanced seismicity near the equator had been expected in this summary at this time. For example in the previous issue of this summary it was noted:

 

"Minor storms are expected in the geomagnetic field in the next two days by SWPC. Such storms could break the current climate consisting of the lack of strong earthquakes. This could occur as early as today. Events triggered by the geomagnetic excursion would be likely near the geomagnetic equator or at high latitudes. A strong event may yet occur in the area of South or Central

America during these storms, although the area is currently uncommonly quiet." (January 31, 2025)

 

The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.9 (NEIC) to M 5.0 (GSRAS)  in the Near Islands, Alaska. It was not reported felt in this remote area. This earthquake occurred 17 minutes after the M 5.5 in Ecuador at a distance of 102 degrees from Ecuador. This is a distance at which seismic body waves are refracted and reflected off internal earth boundaries and return to the surface from a large earthquake and can trigger seismicity following that event. In this case the PP wave from Ecuador was coincident with the M 4.9 in the Near Islands, Alaska and likely triggered that event.

 

This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter in the Near Islands, Aleutians, Alaska since an M 5.0 on October 21, 2022. The last  event of larger magnitude in the Near Islands was an M 5.2 on March 1, 2022.

 

Today's Near Islands quake is likely to have been promoted by the new moon of January 29 which had its maximum stress near the longitude if the Near Islands earthquake.

 

Forecast 169278 had expected enhanced seismicity in the Near Islands was likely at the end of January, 2025.

 

O: 31JAN2025 23:19:31  53.0N  173.4E MB=4.9  EMSC   NEAR ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

O: 31JAN2025 23:19:31  53.0N  173.4E MB=5.0  GSRAS  NEAR ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

P: 26JAN2025 169278    54.0N  170.0E 4.0-5.9 BABAA  Near Islands               

 

A strong eruption of Santiaguito Volcano in Guatemala occurred on January 27, 2025. The eruption included red hot rocks and plumes of smoke and ash rising nearly 1200 meters. Santiaguito is a part of the Santa Maria Volcano complex near Quetzaltenango. A major eruption in the area occurred in 1902 killing more than 5000 people.

 

The swarm of earthquake in the Dodecanese Islands of Greece continued today.

This series is near the volcanically active area of Santorini. Local geoscientists fear this may precede an eruption of the local volcanic sites. While a massive volcanic eruption near 1600 BC at this location changed the history of Europe, there have been minor episodes such as the current activity in recent years which did not end in volcanism. This activity began near the new moon of January 29, 2025 and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses from that alignment. This summary has been following these events over the past several days. The strongest earthquake in this swarm to date occurred today as an M 4.3 at 12:51 UT. In the previous issue it was noted:

 

 

"NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.4 in Attiki, Greece was felt with moderate intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Attiki, Greece at Amarousion, Athens, Kapandrition, Neon, Viron, Ayios Paneleimon and II in Melissia, Moskhaton, Vrilissia, Zefirion, Aghios Dimitrios and in Kimi Evvoia. The area of Greece has seen enhanced seismicity with the new moon of January 29 as it lies at a latitude where tidal stresses were maximized with that new moon as reported in previous issues of this summary:

 

"A strong series of minor earthquakes has been occurring in the Dodecanese Islands of Greece over the past day. It is expected to continue through the end of January. These epicenters are at a longitude which is at local solar midnight when the new moon occurs on January 29, 2025 (see above) and could be enhanced at that time." (January 29, 2025)

 

…

 

An earthquake of M 4.1 in the Aegean Sea was also felt in Greece today. EMSC reported it as a light to moderate shaking in the Aegean Sea at Agios Loukas, Glazia, Eretria, Oropos, Kumi, Vasiliko, Dionysos, Chalkida, Nea Makri, Kifisia, Acharnes, Melissia, Amarousio among others." (January 31, 2025)

 

These events in the Dodecanese Islands are at 142 degrees from the M 7.4 in the

Vanuatu Islands of December 17, 2024 and ate at 51.4 degrees (Node 7) from the M 7.1 in Tibet of January 7, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from  that source.

 

Forecast 169173 had expected enhanced seismicity within about 100 km of the

events in Santorini was likely at the end of January or early February, 2025.

 

O: 01FEB2025 05:31:34  36.6N   25.6E mb=4.2  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

O:  1FEB2025 12:51:44  36.6N   25.7E ML=4.3  EMSC   DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE   

P: 26JAN2025 169173    36.0N   26.0E 3.0-4.7 BAAAA  Aegean Sea                 

 

A moderate earthquake today was also recorded as an M 5.3 in the Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge. This epicenter is near the antipode of recent moderate to moderately strong seismicity in the northern New Ireland/New Britain area. This epicenter is also at 142 degrees from the M 6.8 in Kyushu, Japan of January 13, 2025. Reflected and refracted seismic energy from the inner-outer core boundary returns to the surface at this distance and often enhances seismicity at this distance from major earthquakes following those events. It is also likely it was promoted by strong tidal stresses from the new moon of January 29, 2025 as it lies at a longitude where such stresses were maximized during this event as reported in  previous issues of this summary:

 

 

"The new moon will arrive on January 29, 2025 at 12:36 UT. Longitudes which are sub-solar at this time area near 10 West and those which are anti-solar (local solar noon) are near 170 East longitude. These include, in the west the areas of Iceland and western Europe and portions of the central mid-Atlantic near the equator and in the east areas of the New Zealand/Tonga/Fiji/Kermadec and Solomon, Santa Cruz, and Vanuatu Islands, Kamchatka and Northern Japan and the Kurils among others. These include areas where strong tidal effects and help promote strong to major earthquakes and such an event may be expected in the next week." (January 29, 2025)

 

Similar earthquakes in the Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge have most recently occurred as events  of M 5.5 on June 21, 2024 and November 6, 2023. The last of larger magnitude in the region was an M 5.9 on September 11, 2023. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"An earthquake of M 5.9 also occurred today in the Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge area. It was not reported felt in this remote area. The last earthquake of M>=5.9 within about 200 km of this epicenter was an M  6.9 on September 18, 2020. At the time this summary noted in this regard:

 

 

"Strong earthquakes in the mid-Atlantic in the past month have included an M 6.5 about 300 km west of today's event on August 30 and an M 6.6 more than 1000 km to the northwest on September 6, 2020. The last earthquake within about 250 km  of today's event in the central mid-Atlantic with M>=6.7 occurred more than

30 years ago, this being the strongest quake in the area since an M 6.7 on October 7, 1975 - the largest historical event recorded in this region and the only other such event of M>=6.7." (September 18, 2020, September 11, 2023)

 

Today's M 5.3 in the Central Mid-Atlantic area may have been promoted by SFE from flare 9660 as it occurred at the start of the at C2.5 flare. Data from

SWPC for this event follow:

 

SOLAR FLARES

 

Flare #    START  MAX       END    CLASS     DATE    Flux (Jm-2)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

9660       0905   0908      0923   C2.5      (January 31, 2025)   2.7E-03  

Central Mid-Atlantic M 5.3 09:04 UT

Virgin Islands, M 3.8 09:04 UT

 

 

Forecast 169086 had expected today's event within about 100 km in the Central

Mid-Atlantic Ridge was likely in late January, 2025.

 

O: 31JAN2025 09:04:51   0.5N   25.1W MB=5.3  EMSC   CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE   

P: 25JAN2025 169086     1.0N   26.0W 4.0-6.2 CAAAA  Central Mid-Atlantic Ridg  

 

An unusual earthquake of M 3.7 occurred north of New Zealand today.  The last earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter north of New Zealand with M>=3.7 occurred on September 8, 2015 with M 4.4 and prior to that as an M 4.4 on July 6, 1997.

 

This event is at 103-104 degrees from the M 7.1 in Tibet of January 7, 2025 and joins the increasing series of unusual events at this distance (most notably in New Zealand and eastern U.S - Maine, Texas etc.) from Tibet since that mainshock occurred.

 

This earthquake of M 3.7 is at 103-104 degrees from the M 7.1 in Tibet of January 7, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from that source. Other earthquakes at this distance from Tibet today occurred in the Fiji Islands (M 4.4, 4.4); off Northern California (M 3.4); and Quebec, Canada.

 

O:  1FEB2025 08:45:10  32.5S  176.4E MW=3.7  EMSC   NORTH OF NEW ZEALAND         

P: 19JAN2025 169072    35.0S  179.0E 3.0-4.4 CCCAA  North Island, N.Z.         

 

O: 31JAN2025 22:23:34  40.3S  176.1E ML=3.4  EMSC   NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND  

O:  1FEB2025 09:26:40  42.3S  174.9E MW=4.7  EMSC   OFF E. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z

O: 01FEB2025 09:26:40  42.3S  174.9E mw=4.7  ANSS   Houghton Bay New Zealand

P: 27JAN2025 169350    41.0S  174.0E 3.0-4.9 BBAAA  So. Island, N.Z.           

 

This is the second unusual earthquake north of New Zealand in the past week.

An earthquake of M 4.9 northwest of New Zealand occurred on January 28, 2025.

This led this summary to issue an unusual earthquake watch for the coast of South America for late January, 2025. This warning based on the occurrence of strongly enhanced seismicity in South America following unusual earthquakes north of New Zealand was vindicated when today's M 5.5-5.8 hit central Ecuador. .

 

So, with this in mind, the occurrence of an M 8.3 earthquake in the area of Coquimbo, Chile on September 17, 2015 is of some interest. This event a week after the last moderate earthquake near today's epicenter north of New Zealand was the strongest in the area of Chile (18S-50S latitude) in at least 35 years with the exception of the M 8.8 south of this on February 27, 2010 which has been discussed above and in previous issues of this summary. At the time  of the September, 2015 quake, this summary noted the seismic history of the area as:

 

 

"Today's earthquake is the strongest within about 250 km of this epicenter in at least 25 years. The last major quake, and the only such event, in the area was an M 7.1 on October 15, 1997. Great earthquakes in the area have previously been recorded on April 6, 1943 (M 8.3); August 17, 1906 (M 8.6);  July 8, 1730 (M 8.5) and May 14, 1647 (M 8.5)." (September 16, 2015)

 

While the predicted quality of these seemingly random sets of earthquakes between unusual areas north of New Zealand and the coast of South America is not yet certain, they are certainly suggestive. It would therefore appear that canceling the forecast for South America at this time may be premature. Therefore this summary continues that forecast with the potential for a further strong event, probably in Chile, in the first week of February, 2025.

 

The unusual earthquake northwest of New Zealand on January 28, 2025 was followed 30 minutes later by an M 5.1-5.7 earthquake in the area of southern North Island, New Zealand which was discussed at the time in this summary. Like that active today's unusual event north of New Zealand was followed about 40 minutes later by an M 4.7 in northern South Island, New Zealand. This coincidence was addressed in this summary on January 29, 2025 as:

 

 

"Minutes after the unusual earthquake of M 4.7 northwest of New Zealand an M 5.1 was widely felt in the Manawatu-Wanganui region north of Wellington, New Zealand. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity V in Feilding and IV in Minatangi, Levin, Palmerston North, Rongotea, Wanganui, Masterton, Eketahuna, Taihape and in Wellington at Featherston, Kapiti, Otaki, Porirua and Upper Hutt. Also felt in south Island with intensity II at Cheviot, Centerbury.

and III in Hawke's Bay at Napier, Otane.  GeoNet reported this earthquake at M 5.7 was felt with moderate to strong intensity in the area southeast of Wellington, New Zealand and in southern North Island and northern South Island. 23082 reports of felt events were made of which 7054 reported weak and 9890 light intensity with 5227 reports of moderate shaking and 822 with strong and 45 severe and 42 with extreme intensity came from the area. The last earthquake within North Island within about 150 km of this epicenter with M>=5.7 occurred on February 15, 2023 with M 5.7. This is an unusual epicenter being about 100 km east of most of the activity in this region of New Zealand. Unusual activity near 176E and east of that that tends to be confined to northern North Island, New Zealand and is generally at intermediate depth" (January 29, 2025)

 

There is a natural inclination to wonder about the relation of unusual earthquakes north of New Zealand and subsequent widespread moderate earthquakes minutes later in the area near the Cook Strait and Wellington, New Zealand.

This is a question for further consideration.

 

An M 4.7-5.3 earthquake east of Seddon, New Zealand followed the unusual M 3.7 north of this event 30 minutes later today.  GEONET reported this earthquake was felt with light to moderate intensity in the area southeast of Seddon, New Zealand and in southern North Island and northern South Island. 582 reports of felt events were made of which 438 reported weak and 135 with light intensity with 9 reports of moderate shaking and 0 with strong and 0 severe and 0 with extreme intensity came from the area.  This earthquake is the strongest within about 150 km off the east coast of South Island New Zealand since an M 5.4 on October 12, 2015. At the time this summary noted:

 

 

"GeoNet reported an earthquake of M 4.4 was felt with moderate intensity east of Pongaroa, North Island, New Zealand. Felt with weak to moderate intensity throughout most of southern North Island with maximum intensity at Dannevirke and Awapuni, New Zealand. The event of M 4.1 was felt with moderate intensity east of Pongaroa, North Island, New Zealand. Felt with weak to moderate intensity throughout most of southern North Island including areas from Kapiti and Carterton north to Waipuku and Kimbolton, North Island, New Zealand. These are aftershocks of the earlier M 5.7 which was widely felt in New Zealand causing light damage in the region.  The last earthquake of M>=5.4 within about 150 km of this epicenter occurred on September 22, 2014 (M 5.4). The last of M>=5.8 on January 20, 2014 with M 6.2." (October 12, 2015)

 

This earthquake in New Zealand is at 107 degrees from the M 7.1 in Tibet of January 7, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.

 

Forecast 169350 had expected enhanced seismicity in this area was likely at the

end of January, 2025.

 

 

O: 31JAN2025 22:23:34  40.3S  176.1E ML=3.4  EMSC   NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND  

O:  1FEB2025 09:26:40  42.3S  174.9E MW=4.7  EMSC   OFF E. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z

O:  1FEB2025 09:26:40  42.3S  174.9E MW=5.3  GEONET OFF E. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z

O: 01FEB2025 09:26:40  42.3S  174.9E mw=4.7  ANSS   Houghton Bay New Zealand

P: 27JAN2025 169350    41.0S  174.0E 3.0-4.9 BBAAA  So. Island, N.Z.