October 10, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
Several hours after yesterday's summary was published online a major earthquake of M 7.7 occurred
near the Panama/Colombia border. Warning for a tsunami was generated by this
major earthquake and were initially broadcast for Central America including Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Peru, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Colombia and Panama but later revised
to minor sea level changes. Shaking was noted in Panama City where this noon-time
earthquake caused people to flee buildings and gather in the streets.
Damage has been initially reported at moderate levels. The last earthquake
in the world with M>=7.7 was an M 7.7 on August 14, 2026 in Flores Sea Indonesia and
before that an M 7.8 in Mindanao on June 7, 2026.
Today's M 7.7 is the strongest earthquake within about 300 km of this epicenter in
at least 35 years. An M 7.0 hit south of this on March 31, 1999 with an M 7.6
on April 22, 1991 to the north in Costa Rica. The only recorded events
in this area in the historical archive with M>=7.7 occurred on July 19, 1934 with
M 7.7; as an M 8.3 on December 20, 1904 and an M 7.9 on January 20, 1904.
These were reported in this summary in previous issues as:
"7 18 1 36 24 1934 8.140 -82.380 0 7.7 Costa Rica
7 18 16 59 38 1934 7.750 -82.250 0 7.0 Costa Rica
Destructive at David and Puerto Armuelles, Panama. Up to $1 million U.S. dollars damage. Maximum intensity up to VII. Five damaging and large earthquakes occurred on July 17-18 including these two in Panama and two in the Vanuatu Islands with M 8.1 each. An earthquake also occurred in Taiwan with M 6.3-7.0 and killed up to 50 people." (July 18, 2026)
and
"12 20 5 44 18 1904 8.500 -83.000 60 8.3 Costa Rica
Strongest shock in Costa Rica since 1888-1889. Stronger in Limon and the Atlantic littoral than west of Cordillera Madre." (December 20, 2025)
At the time of this earthquake in Central America Hurricane Isaias was making
land- and slopefall in the Florida Panhandle at 28.5N 87.1W with winds up to
about 180 km/hr (105 mi/hr) at its peak intensity according to NOAA data.
The exact timing of the landfall and the M 7.7 in Panama directly to the
south of landfall is most likely not coincidental. In the previous summary
(before the event in Panama) this summary had proposed just such a scenario
as noted below.
"HURR ISAIAS 2026-10-09 00:00 UT 27.0N 87.1W 120 kts Gulf of America (Mexico)
Tropical Storm Isaias continued today in the area of the Gulf of Mexico/America with winds up to 120 kts. It will likely track to the north as a strong hurricane reaching the Florida Panhandle/Mississippi coast around October 9-10. It could promote enhanced seismicity in the area from Southern Texas through Georgia near landfall. Associated low pressures associated with the first Gulf hurricane of the season could also induce a moderate to strong earthquake in the areas from Chiapas/Oaxaca to Guatemala and Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador as this storm passes north of this area." (October 8-9, 2026)
As this earthquake of M 7.7 occurred within an hour of local solar noon
near the sub-solar latitude it is also likely it was promoted by the
strong tidals stresses with the new moon of October 10, 2026 as reported
in the previous issue of this summary.
EMSC reported power was lost in many areas of Panama including at Bella Vista, Playa el Uverito where
items were thrown to the floor and in Santiago de Vergauas and evacuations occurred.
Als felt strongly in Canto del Llano, Aguadulce, Anton, Farallon, Penonome, Caballero
and as far as thousands of km in Colombia, Venezuela, the U.S., Costa Rica - as per
reports made to EMSC.
The strongest aftershocks at this writing (of M 6.6, 6.0 and 5.8) were (from EMSC Data) felt with strong
and long duration in Panama at Las Tablas, Macaracas. Sesteadero, Chitre, Parita, Santiago de Veraguas, Punta Delgadita, Las Barreras, San Francisco, Anton, Santa Clara, Vista Hermosa and as far as 260 km away in Volcan, Panama among others.
A true foreshock occurred within minutes of local solar midnight to the M 7.7
in Panama. This event was not felt but was reported within about 5 km of the
epicenter of the mainshock and is an unusual case of a true small foreshock
to a major earthquake. It may have been triggered by a moderate C4.0 solar
flare which peaked near the time of this earthquake in Panama. SWPC gives
the following data for this solar flare.
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
940 0527 0539 0600 C4.0 (October 9, 2026) 3.9E-03 *
Panama M 2.6 05:53 UT
The first strong aftershock in Panama was an M 5.5 - 26 minutes after the
mainshock. It is followed by an M 5.1 - 8 minutes and 30 seconds later in Panama - at the arrival time
of the reflected PcP wave (also at 8 minutes 30 seonds and an M 5.8
15 minutes and 31 seconds later (the arrival time of the reflected ScS
wave from the M 5.5). The strongest aftershock to date (M 6.6) was followed
by an M 5.1 15 minutes and 25 seconds later as well (again the arrival time
of the reflected ScS wave from the M 6.6). These may be examples of immediate
aftershock activity with timing largely controlled by reflected seismic
waves returning to the epicenter, a phenomena this summary has consistently
reported on in past summaries.
This epicenter in Panama is at the third node (120 degrees) from Typhoon Koguma and
also from Hurricane Nolo and may also have been promoted by energy from those
sources.
O: 09OCT2026 17:56:07 7.6N 80.7W ML=7.7 NEIC PANAMA
O: 09OCT2026 20:25:40 7.7N 81.4W ML=6.6 NEIC PANAMA
O: 09OCT2026 20:41:05 7.7N 81.4W ML=5.1 NEIC PANAMA
O: 10OCT2026 04:14:01 7.7N 80.6W ML=6.0 NEIC PANAMA
O: 09OCT2026 18:22:15 7.6N 80.3W ML=5.5 NEIC PANAMA
O: 09OCT2026 18:37:46 7.5N 80.4W ML=5.8 NEIC PANAMA
O: 09OCT2026 05:53:27 7.6N 80.7W ML=2.6 NEIC PANAMA
Statistical evidence indicates that some triggering or promotion forward in time can occur in regions which are under high stress due to additional stress events of small size. Among these are surface and body waves passing through a region. Triggering may be dynamic with the promoted earthquake occurring at the same time as the stress event or delayed with an earthquake occurring later in time but still related to the stress event through water lubrication or other various geophysical effects on the faults. We have argued in this report for the past 35 years that this effect is most observable where the seismic waves are largest. In general this occurs at distances from the rupture ends of the earthquake producing those waves (mainshock) which we have termed nodal distances. These are defined by the formula D=360*m/n where D is the distance in degrees and m<=m where n an m are small integers. These are also the locations of the maximum corrections to magnitude in the standard Jeffreys-Bullen tables. In addition there is focusing of seismic energy from reflections and refractions of f the core-mantle and the inner-outer core boundary of the earth. This focuses energy at the surface in the distance between 101 and 108 degrees (core-mantle) and 141-148 degrees (inner-outer core boundary). In this report we monitor seismicity at these distances following major earthquakes as experience has shown that strong and/or unusual earthquake are much more likely to occur at these distance from the mainshock.
Some of these may occur following the M 7.7 in Panama as - (also see nodal map under maps section this summary:
Antipodal (~180 degrees)
Panama to South of Sumatra
Outer shadow zone edge (141-148 degrees)
Panama to South Indian Ocean, Myanmar, Taiwan, New Guinea, southern China, central Asia, Sichuan, India,
Node 3 (120 degrees)
Panama to Iran, Ethiopia, Yemen, Macquarie, Hokkaido, Santa Cruz, Honshu,
Inner shadow zone edge (101-110 degrees)
Panama to Kermadec Is, Turkey, Kamchatka, Kurils, Caucasus, New Zealand, Tonga/Fiji,
Node 4 (90 degrees)
Panama to Andreanof Islands, Italy,
Node 5 (72 degrees)
Panama to France/Spain, Yukon, South Atlantic, South Sandwich Is, Alaska Peninsula,
Node 6 (60 degrees)
Panama to Vancouver Island, BC
Node 7 (52 degrees)
Panama to Quebec, Idaho, San Francisco, northern California, northern Mid-Atlantic
Node 8 (45 degrees)
Panama to San Diego, Central California, Utah, Baja California, East Pacific Rise
The earthquake in Panama occurred in an are which was near local solar noon
when the strongest solar flare in six weeks occurred on October 8 and near local
solar noon when a subsequen M 1.4 solar flare occurred on October 9. SFE
from these flares may have helped trigger the M 7.7 in Panama as reported
was likely in the previous issues of this summary as:
"A strong M6.7 class solar flare was observed on October 8, 2026 and reported by SWPC
A flare of M8.5 (#5070) was recorded on August 20, 2026, the last of similar
or larger energy to today's event. Longitudes near 55 West were sub-solar
at the time of the flare (where little seismicity occurs except in the Drake
Passage off South America). Local solar midnight was at 125 East longitude in the
western Ring of Fire, an area that saw the first moderate earthquakes
following the solar flare in the Sumba Region of Indonesia (M 4.8) and in
Western Australia (M 3.3). These longitude areas could see enhanced seismicity
in the several hours following this flare. SWPC gave the following preliminary parameters for today's flare:
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
780 1520 1548 1710 M6.7 (October 8, 2026) 5.4E-02 *
XXXX 1352 1409 1517 M1.3 (October 9, 2026) 1.1E-02 *
Vanuatu M 5.4 13:51 UT
Macquarie M 5.9 14:49 UT
The first moderate earthquake probably promoted by today's solar flare was an
M 4.7 in the region south of Sumatra, Indonesia. NEIC gives the following
preliminary parameters for this event.
O: 08OCT2026 15:23:47 3.4S 101.6E ML=4.7 NEIC SOUTH OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
It should be noted that this epicenter is very near the antipode of the the
subsequent earthquake in Panama (which is 7S 100E). This antipodal area
could see moderate to strong seismic enhancement in the next several days
with a strong earthquake possible soon.
The new moon will arrive on October 10, 2026 at 15:50 UT. This is at the same
time of day as today's major M6.7 solar flare (see above). It is likely
the combination could bring a fresh series of moderate to strong earthquakes
especially in the western Ring of Fire including Japan, Taiwan, Philippines and
Indonesia among other. Longitudes at the time of the new moon at local solar solar midnight are near 126 East and those at local solar noon are near 54 West longitude. In the west these include the northern and Eastern Caribbean as well as areas of western South America while in the East longitudes near 126 E are located in the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and Indonesia among others. These are the most likely areas to see tidal triggering at this time, but other areas could see significant enhancement in seismicity in the next several days. These would most likely see seismic enhancement near local solar noon or midnight. A strong to major earthquake is considered likely with this new moon.
A second M-class solar flare occurred mid-UT day on October 9. SWPC gives this
event class M1.3. This flare beginning about 14:00 UT followed a moderate
geomagnetic storm which saw Hp30 index reaching 4 from aabout 09:00 to about 12:00 UT.
This flare was accompanied by the strongest earthquakes of the past 24 hours -
an M 5.9 west of Macquarie Island and an M 5.4 in Vanuatu. These earthquakes occurred
within about an hour of local solar midnight in both cases and may have been
promoted by the coming tides with the new moon of October 10, 2026 (see above)
and/or the M-class solar flare.
O: 09OCT2026 14:49:41 61.0S 154.5E ML=5.9 EMSC MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION
O: 09OCT2026 13:51:42 15.5S 168.2E ML=5.4 EMSC VANUATU
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
HURRICANE ISAIAS
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR ISAIAS 2026-10-10 00:00 UT 28.7N 87.9W 120 kts Gulf of America (Mexico)
Tropical Storm Isaias continued today in the area of the Gulf of Mexico/America with winds up to 120 kts. It will likely track to the north as a strong hurricane reaching the Florida Panhandle/Mississippi coast around October 9-10. It could promote enhanced seismicity in the area from Southern Texas through Georgia near landfall. Associated low pressures associated with the first Gulf hurricane of the season could also induce a moderate to strong earthquake in the areas from Chiapas/Oaxaca to Guatemala and Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador as this storm passes north of this area. The antipode at 27S 93E is not a seismic region.
TYPHON KOGUMA (27W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH KOGUMA 2026-10-10 00:00 UT 21.7N 152.0E 140 kts northwest Pacific
Typhoon Koguma (27W) continued in the area of the Pacific northwest with winds up to 140 kts. It will likely continue to the north and east passing as a typhoon north of Guam with winds up to 145 kts around October 10-11 where some enhanced seismicity may occur. The antipode is at 22S 29W in Southern Atlantic region near the central Mid-Atlantic and Ascension Island where enhanced seismicity iACHonsidered likely.
TYPHOON NOLO (15E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH NOLO 2026-10-10 00:00 UT 30.1N 146.2E 55 kts North Pacific
Typhoon Nolo (17E) continued in the area of the northern Pacific with winds up to 55 kts. It will likely continue to the east. No seismic zones lie in the path of Nolo at this time. The antipode is at 30S 34W in Southern Atlantic region where no enhanced seismicity is considered likely.
This system has the distinction of having been a hurricane and a typhoon - a rarity.
HURRICANE RACHEL (DEPRESSION 18E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR RACHEL 2026-10-10 00:00 UT 24.3N 122.1W 65 kts Southwest of Baja California, Mexico
Hurricane Rachel (Tropical Depression 18E) continued in the area southwest of Baja California, Mexico today winds up to 65 kts. It is expected to track towards the east and north and to make landfall in Mexico after hitting northern Baja California and Gulf of California and southern California around October 10-11 where landfall should occur. This may trigger enhanced seismicity in this area with a moderate earthquake possible at this time. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean, an semi-active seismic area near 24S 58E where some enhanced seismicity is possible on South Indian Ridge systems.
HURRICANE SIMON (DEPRESSION 19E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR SIMON 2026-10-10 00:00 UT 17.3N 104.1W 145 kts South of Michoacan, Mexico
Hurricane Simon (Tropical Depression 19E) continued in the area south of Michoacan, Mexico today winds up to 145 kts. It is expected to track towards the west and north and could make landfall as a major hurricane near Puerto Vallarta, Mexico with winds near 165 kts. Considerable damage is possible upon landfall. Regional seismic enhancement in the area of Michoacan and Colima is likely near the time of landfall with the potential for a moderate to strong earthquake in that time period. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean, an semi-active seismic area near 17S 76E where some enhanced seismicity is possible on South Indian Ridge systems.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 8, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
930 0428 0439 0450 C1.6 (October 9, 2026) 1.9E-03
Crete M 4.0 04:46 UT
Austria M 3.4 04:46 UT
940 0527 0539 0600 C4.0 (October 9, 2026) 3.9E-03 *
Panama M 2.6 05:53 UT
950 0639 0648 0653 C2.9 (October 9, 2026) 2.1E-03
Tarapaca M 4.3 06:41 UT
Panama M 2.7 06:40 UT
960 0818 0827 0830 C2.2 (October 9, 2026) 2.0E-03
Fiji M 4.8 08:27 UT
Southern California M 2.1 08:27 UT
1040 0830 0840 0845 C3.9 (October 9, 2026) 3.0E-03
970 0953 1001 1008 C1.3 (October 9, 2026) 1.1E-03
Panmama M 2.7 09:56 UT
Chile M 5.1 10:22 UT
980 1124 1131 1139 C1.3 (October 9, 2026) 1.1E-03
Central Alaska M 3.0 11:24 UT
Afghanistan M 4.4 11:39 UT
990 1215 1217 1220 C1.5 (October 9, 2026) 5.0E-04
Kamchatka M 4.4 12:27 UT
1000 1233 1239 1247 C1.8 (October 9, 2026) 1.4E-03
Poland M 3.6 12:33 UT
Nicaragua M 4.8 12:33 UT
1010 1303 1312 1315 C4.3 (October 9, 2026) 1.8E-03
1020 1350 1409 1617 M1.3 (October 9, 2026) 1.1E-02
Panama M 7.7 17:56 UT
Fiji M 4.8 15:18 UT
Mindanao M 4.3 15:08 UT
Kamchatka M 5.0, M 4.9 16:59, 17:09 UT
Vanuatu M 5.4 13:51 UT
Macquarie M 5.9 14:49 UT
1030 1557 1602 1607 C1.4 (October 9, 2026) 9.3E-04
1050 2152 2158 2200 C1.4 (October 9, 2026) 7.2E-04
Panama M 4.7 21:52 UT
Jalisco Mexico M 3.3 21:53 UT
1060 2247 2252 2256 C1.2 (October 9, 2026) 7.1E-04
Panama M 4.1 22:54 UT
1080 2340 2351 0015 C3.1 (October 9, 2026) 5.2E-03
South of Panama M 4.5 23:54 UT
Halmahera M 4.0 23:55 UT
Panama M 4.7, 4.6, ... 23:57, 00:00 ... UT
Costa Rica M 4.8 23:58 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: October 9 active October 10 minor storms October 11-12. Solar M-flare chance: 55% X-class: 10% proton storm: 10%
AP Indicies: global: 11, high: 19, mid-latitude: 10, time of max k: 10:00-12:00 UT; Max k: 6.00 Global Kp 4.00 1000-1300, October 9; Sunspot Number: 69; Radio Flux: 121 October 8, 2026.
Weak degradation of HF radio communication on sunlit side of the earth was observed.
The Hp60 index (GFZ) did not exceed 4 in the past 24 hours. Only moderate
short disturbances were observed - these at 0900-1000 UT October 9 and 0300-0400 UT on October 10, 2026.
October 9, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
UPDATE
Several hours after today's summary was published online a major earthquake of M 7.7 occurred
near the Panama/Colombia border. Warning for a tsunami was generated by this
major earthquake were initially broadcast for Central America including Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Peru, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Colombia and Panama but later revised
to minor sea level changes. Shaking was noted in Panama City where this noon-time
earthquake caused people to flee buildings and gather in the streets.
Damage has been initially reported at moderate levels.
This is the strongest earthquake within about 300 km of this epicenter in
at least 35 years. An M 7.0 hit south of this on March 31, 1999 with an M 7.6
on April 22, 1991 to the north in Costa Rica. The only recorded events
in this area in the historical archive with M>=7.7 occurred on July 19, 1934 with
M 7.7; as an M 8.3 on December 20, 1904 and an M 7.9 on January 20, 1904.
These were reported in this summary in previous issues as:
"Felt widely in the Vanuatu and Banks Islands.
7 18 1 36 24 1934 8.140 -82.380 0 7.7 Costa Rica
7 18 16 59 38 1934 7.750 -82.250 0 7.0 Costa Rica
Destructive at David and Puerto Armuelles, Panama. Up to $1 million U.S. dollars damage. Maximum intensity up to VII. Five damaging and large earthquakes occurred on July 17-18 including these two in Panama and two in the Vanuatu Islands with M 8.1 each. An earthquake also occurred in Taiwan with M 6.3-7.0 and killed up to 50 people." (July 18, 2026)
and
"12 20 5 44 18 1904 8.500 -83.000 60 8.3 Costa Rica
Strongest shock in Costa Rica since 1888-1889. Stronger in Limon and the Atlantic littoral than west of Cordillera Madre." (December 20, 2025)
At the time of this earthquake in Central America Hurricane Isaias was making
land- and slopefall in the Florida Panhandle at 28.5N 87.1W with winds up to
about 180 km/hr (105 mi/hr) at its peak intensity according to NOAA data.
The exact timing of the landfall and the M 7.7 in Panama directly to the
south of landfall is most likely not coincidental. In the previous summary
(before the event in Panama) this summary had proposed just such a scenario
as noted below.
"HURR ISAIAS 2026-10-09 00:00 UT 27.0N 87.1W 120 kts Gulf of America (Mexico)
Tropical Storm Isaias continued today in the area of the Gulf of Mexico/America with winds up to 120 kts. It will likely track to the north as a strong hurricane reaching the Florida Panhandle/Mississippi coast around October 9-10. It could promote enhanced seismicity in the area from Southern Texas through Georgia near landfall. Associated low pressures associated with the first Gulf hurricane of the season could also induce a moderate to strong earthquake in the areas from Chiapas/Oaxaca to Guatemala and Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador as this storm passes north of this area." (October 8-9, 2026)
As this earthquake of M 7.7 occurred within an hour of local solar noon
near the sub-solar latitude it is also likely it was promoted by the
strong tidals stresses with the new moon of October 10, 2026 as reported
in the previous issue of this summary.
O: 09OCT2026 17:56:07 7.6N 80.7W ML=7.7 NEIC PANAMA
O: 09OCT2026 20:25:40 7.7N 81.4W ML=6.6 NEIC PANAMA
O: 09OCT2026 20:42:08 7.7N 81.5W ML=5.0 NEIC PANAMA
O: 09OCT2026 18:37:46 7.5N 80.4W ML=5.8 NEIC PANAMA
Statistical evidence indicates that some triggering or promotion forward in time can occur in regions which are under high stress due to additional stress events of small size. Among these are surface and body waves passing through a region. Triggering may be dynamic with the promoted earthquake occurring at the same time as the stress event or delayed with an earthquake occurring later in time but still related to the stress event through water lubrication or other various geophysical effects on the faults. We have argued in this report for the past 35 years that this effect is most observable where the seismic waves are largest. In general this occurs at distances from the rupture ends of the earthquake producing those waves (mainshock) which we have termed nodal distances. These are defined by the formula D=360*m/n where D is the distance in degrees and m<=m where n an m are small integers. These are also the locations of the maximum corrections to magnitude in the standard Jeffreys-Bullen tables. In addition there is focusing of seismic energy from reflections and refractions of f the core-mantle and the inner-outer core boundary of the earth. This focuses energy at the surface in the distance between 101 and 108 degrees (core-mantle) and 141-148 degrees (inner-outer core boundary). In this report we monitor seismicity at these distances following major earthquakes as experience has shown that strong and/or unusual earthquake are much more likely to occur at these distance from the mainshock.
Some of these may occur following the M 7.7 in Panama as - also see nodal map under maps section this summary:
Antipodal (~180 degrees)
Panama to South of Sumatra
Outer shadow zone edge (141-148 degrees)
Panama to South Indian Ocean, Myanmar, Taiwan, New Guinea, southern China, central Asia, Sichuan, India,
Node 3 (120 degrees)
Panama to Iran, Ethiopia, Yemen, Macquarie, Hokkaido, Santa Cruz, Honshu,
Inner shadow zone edge (101-110 degrees)
Panama to Kermadec Is, Turkey, Kamchatka, Kurils, Caucasus, New Zealand, Tonga/Fiji,
Node 4 (90 degrees)
Panama to Andreanof Islands, Italy,
Node 5 (72 degrees)
Panama to France/Spain, Yukon, South Atlantic, South Sandwich Is, Alaska Peninsula,
Node 6 (60 degrees)
Panama to Vancouver Island, BC
Node 7 (52 degrees)
Panama to Quebec, Idaho, San Francisco, northern California, northern Mid-Atlantic
Node 8 (45 degrees)
Panama to San Diego, Central California, Utah, Baja California, East Pacific Rise
A strong M6.7 class solar flare was observed on October 8, 2026 and reported by SWPC
A flare of M8.5 (#5070) was recorded on August 20, 2026, the last of similar
or larger energy to today's event. Longitudes near 55 West were sub-solar
at the time of the flare (where little seismicity occurs except in the Drake
Passage off South America). Local solar midnight was at 125 East longitude in the
western Ring of Fire, an area that saw the first moderate earthquakes
following the solar flare in the Sumba Region of Indonesia (M 4.8) and in
Western Australia (M 3.3). These longitude areas could see enhanced seismicity
in the several hours following this flare. SWPC gave the following preliminary parameters for today's flare:
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
780 1520 1548 1710 M6.7 (October 8, 2026) 5.4E-02 *
XXXX 1352 1409 1517 M1.3 (October 9, 2026) 1.1E-02 *
Vanuatu M 5.4 13:51 UT
Macquarie M 5.9 14:49 UT
The first moderate earthquake probably promoted by today's solar flare was an
M 4.7 in the region south of Sumatra, Indonesia. NEIC gives the following
preliminary parameters for this event.
O: 08OCT2026 15:23:47 3.4S 101.6E ML=4.7 NEIC SOUTH OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
The new moon will arrive on October 10, 2026 at 15:50 UT. This is at the same
time of day as today's major M6.7 solar flare (see above). It is likely
the combination could bring a fresh series of moderate to strong earthquakes
especially in the western Ring of Fire including Japan, Taiwan, Philippines and
Indonesia among other. Longitudes at the time of the new moon at local solar solar midnight are near 126 East and those at local solar noon are near 54 West longitude. In the west these include the northern and Eastern Caribbean as well as areas of western South America while in the East longitudes near 126 E are located in the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and Indonesia among others. These are the most likely areas to see tidal triggering at this time, but other areas could see significant enhancement in seismicity in the next several days. These would most likely see seismic enhancement near local solar noon or midnight. A strong to major earthquake is considered likely with this new moon before May 25, 2023.
A second M-class solar flare occurred mid-UT day on October 9. SWPC gives this
event class M1.3. This flare beginning about 14:00 UT followed a moderate
geomagnetic storm which saw Hp30 index reaching 4 from aabout 09:00 to about 12:00 UT.
This flare was accompanied by the strongest earthquakes of the past 24 hours -
an M 5.9 west of Macquarie Island and an M 5.4 in Vanuatu. These earthquakes occurred
within about an hour of local solar midnight in both cases and may have been
promoted by the coming tides with the new moon of October 10, 2026 (see above)
and/or the M-class solar flare.
O: 09OCT2026 14:49:41 61.0S 154.5E ML=5.9 EMSC MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION
O: 09OCT2026 13:51:42 15.5S 168.2E ML=5.4 EMSC VANUATU
The strongest earthquake of the day was an M 6.3 in central Vanuatu, NEIC reported it was
felt with intensity up to VII in Longana, Penama and III in Luganville, Sanma, Vanuatu.
O: 08OCT2026 09:00:07 15.5S 168.2E ML=6.3 NEIC VANUATU
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.5 in Mindanao, Philippines was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Mindanao, Philippines with intensity VI in southern Mindanao at Glan; V in Buayan; IV in Padada, San Jose and II-III in Panabo and Tulunan.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Mindanao at General Santos, Malandag, Bato, Davao, Panabo and Magugpo Poblacion.
O: 08OCT2026 08:07:59 5.6S 125.2E ML=5.5 NEIC SOUTHERN MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
NEIC also reported an earthquake of M 5.5 in Macquarie Island region was not felt area(s) of Macquarie Island.
This epicenter is at the fifth node (72 degrees) from TS Koguma and may have
been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 08OCT2026 06:46:48 52.5S 140.3E MW=5.5 EMSC WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
HURRICANE ISAIAS
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR ISAIAS 2026-10-09 00:00 UT 27.0N 87.1W 120 kts Gulf of America (Mexico)
Tropical Storm Isaias continued today in the area of the Gulf of Mexico/America with winds up to 120 kts. It will likely track to the north as a strong hurricane reaching the Florida Panhandle/Mississippi coast around October 9-10. It could promote enhanced seismicity in the area from Southern Texas through Georgia near landfall. Associated low pressures associated with the first Gulf hurricane of the season could also induce a moderate to strong earthquake in the areas from Chiapas/Oaxaca to Guatemala and Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador as this storm passes north of this area. The antipode at 27S 93E is not a seismic region.
TYPHON KOGUMA (27W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH KOGUMA 2026-10-09 00:00 UT 20.1N 154.9E 125 kts northwest Pacific
Typhoon Koguma (27W) continued in the area of the Pacific northwest with winds up to 125 kts. It will likely continue to the north and east passing as a typhoon north of Guam with winds up to 145 kts around October 10-11 where some enhanced seismicity may occur. The antipode is at 20S 26W in Southern Atlantic region near the central Mid-Atlantic and Ascension Island where enhanced seismicity iACHonsidered likely.
TYPHOON NOLO (15E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH NOLO 2026-10-09 00:00 UT 29.4N 147.2E 65 kts North Pacific
Typhoon Nolo (17E) continued in the area of the northern Pacific with winds up to 65 kts. It will likely continue to the east. No seismic zones lie in the path of Nolo at this time. The antipode is at 29S 23W in Southern Atlantic region where no enhanced seismicity is considered likely.
This system has the distinction of having been a hurricane and a typhoon - a rarity.
HURRICANE RACHEL (DEPRESSION 18E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR RACHEL 2026-10-09 00:00 UT 22.3N 124.9W 55 kts Southwest of Baja California, Mexico
Hurricane Rachel (Tropical Depression 18E) continued in the area southwest of Baja California, Mexico today winds up to 55 kts. It is expected to track towards the west and north and not to make landfall in Mexico and then to turn to the east hitting northern Baja California and Gulf of California and southern California around October 9-10 where landfall should occur. This may trigger enhanced seismicity in this area with a moderate earthquake possible at this time. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean, an semi-active seismic area near 22S 56E where some enhanced seismicity is possible on South Indian Ridge systems.
HURRICANE SIMON (DEPRESSION 19E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR SIMON 2026-10-09 00:00 UT 15.3N 104.0W 100 kts South of Michoacan, Mexico
Hurricane Simon (Tropical Depression 19E) formed in the area south of Michoacan, Mexico today winds up to 100 kts. It is expected to track towards the west and north and could make landfall as a major hurricane near Puerto Vallarta, Mexico with winds near 150 kts. Considerable damage is possible upon landfall. Regional seismic enhancement in the area of Michoacan and Colima is likely near the time of landfall with the potential for a moderate to strong earthquake in that time period. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean, an semi-active seismic area near 15S 76E where some enhanced seismicity is possible on South Indian Ridge systems.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 8, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
XXXX 1350 1409 1517 M1.3 (October 9, 2026) 1.1E-02 *
Vanuatu M 5.4 13:51 UT
Macquarie M 5.9 14:49 UT
750 0045 0059 0111 C1.6 (October 8, 2026) 2.3E-03
Sulawesi M 4.0 01:00 UT
770 1444 1452 1456 C1.4 (October 8, 2026) 1.1E-03
780 1520 1548 1658 M6.7 (October 8, 2026) 5.4E-02 *
Southern Sumatra M 4.7 15:23 UT
900 2021 2027 2031 C2.1 (October 8, 2026) 1.4E-03
910 2113 2117 2125 C1.5 (October 8, 2026) 1.1E-03
Northern Mid-Atlantic M 4.9 21:34 UT
920 2233 2244 2253 C3.5 (October 8, 2026) 2.9E-03
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: major storms October 9 active October 10 minor storms October 11. Solar M-flare chance: 55% X-class: 10% proton storm: 10%
AP Indicies: global: 6, high: 12, mid-latitude: 5, time of max k: 16:00-21:00 UT; Max k: 4.00 Global Kp 2.00 1300-2000, October 8; Sunspot Number: 69; Radio Flux: 119 October 8, 2026.
October 8, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
A strong M6.7 class solar flare was observed on October 8, 2026 and reported by SWPC
A flare of M8.5 (#5070) was recorded on August 20, 2026, the last of similar
or larger energy to today's event. Longitudes near 55 West were sub-solar
at the time of the flare (where little seismicity occurs except in the Drake
Passage off South America). Local solar midnight was at 125 East longitude in the
western Ring of Fire, an area that saw the first moderate earthquakes
following the solar flate in the Sumba Region of Indonesia (M 4.8) and in
Western Australia (M 3.3). These longitude areas could see enhanced seismicity
in the several hours following this flare. SWPC gave the following preliminary parameters for today's flare:
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
XXXX 1520 1548 1710 M6.7 (October 8, 2026) 5.4E-02 *
The first moderate earthquake probably promoted by today's solar flare was an
M 4.7 in the region south of Sumatra, Indonesia. NEIC gives the following
preliminary parameters for this event.
O: 08OCT2026 15:23:47 3.4S 101.6E ML=4.7 NEIC SOUTH OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
The new moon will arrive on October 10, 2026 at 15:50 UT. This is at the same
time of day as today's major M6.7 solar flare (see above). It is likely
the combination could bring a fresh series of moderate to strong earthquakes
especially in the western Ring of Fire including Japan, Taiwan, Philippines and
Indonesia among other. Longitudes at the time of the new moon at local solar solar midnight are near 126 East and those at local solar noon are near 54 West longitude. In the west these include the northern and Eastern Caribbean as well as areas of western South America while in the East longitudes near 126 E are located in the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and Indonesia among others. These are the most likely areas to see tidal triggering at this time, but other areas could see significant enhancement in seismicity in the next several days. These would most likely see seismic enhancement near local solar noon or midnight. A strong to major earthquake is considered likely with this new moon before May 25, 2023.
The strongest earthquake of the day was an M 6.3 in central Vanuatu, NEIC reported it was
felt with intensity up to VII in Longana, Penama and III in Luganville, Sanma, Vanuatu.
O: 08OCT2026 09:00:07 15.5S 168.2E ML=6.3 NEIC VANUATU
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.5 in Mindanao, Philippines was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Mindanao, Philippines with intensity VI in southern Mindanao at Glan; V in Buayan; IV in Padada, San Jose and II-III in Panabo and Tulunan.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Mindanao at General Santos, Malandag, Bato, Davao, Panabo and Magugpo Poblacion.
O: 08OCT2026 08:07:59 5.6S 125.2E ML=5.5 NEIC SOUTHERN MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
NEIC also reported an earthquake of M 5.5 in Macquarie Island region was not felt area(s) of Macquarie Island.
This epicenter is at the fifth node (72 degrees) from TS Koguma and may have
been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 08OCT2026 06:46:48 52.5S 140.3E MW=5.5 EMSC WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in Flores Sea was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Flores Sea at Ruteng.
O: 08OCT2026 04:49:00 7.7S 120.4E MB=5.0 EMSC FLORES SEA
O: 07OCT2026 15:22:18 7.9S 120.9E ML=4.1 EMSC FLORES SEA
O: 08OCT2026 03:00:02 8.0S 121.0E mb=4.7 EMSC FLORES SEA
O: 07OCT2026 12:03:42 8.4S 121.4E ML=4.2 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
NEIC reported a moderate earthquake of M 4.9 in Sicily, Italy was likely felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Malfa, Sicily.
This event occurred at a deep focus near 300 km in depth and was probably
felt lightly over a broad areas.
This epicenter is at 101 degrees from Hurricane Simon and may have been promoted
by energy from that source.
O: 08OCT2026 03:42:52 38.9N 14.6E MW=4.9 EMSC SICILY, ITALY
NEIC reported earthquakes of M 3.5 and M 3.6 in Western Texas were likely felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Western Texas and New Mexico near Whites City.
O: 07OCT2026 17:17:08 31.2N 103.1W ML=3.5 EMSC WESTERN TEXAS
O: 07OCT2026 07:41:16 31.5N 104.1W ML=2.1 EMSC WESTERN TEXAS
O: 08OCT2026 02:21:26 31.6N 104.5W ML=3.6 EMSC WESTERN TEXAS
O: 08OCT2026 02:24:49 31.6N 104.5W ML=3.0 EMSC WESTERN TEXAS
O: 08OCT2026 07:06:43 31.6N 103.9W ML=2.0 EMSC WESTERN TEXAS
O: 07OCT2026 08:11:02 31.7N 104.4W ML=2.4 EMSC WESTERN TEXAS
O: 08OCT2026 06:24:56 31.7N 104.4W ML=2.5 EMSC WESTERN TEXAS
NEIC reported earthquakes of M 4.9, 4.5, 4.0 in Eastern Honshu, Japanwas felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Eastern Honshu, Japan in Chiba, Tokyo and Kawasaki Prefectures.
This activity may have been promoted by the passage of Typhoon Choi-Wan off the
coast at the time of their occurrence. This summary had expected this type
of interaction in the previous summary as:
"TYPH CHOI-WAN 2026-10-07 00:00 UT 36.3N 149.4E 90 kts East of Honshu, Japan
Typhoon Choi-Wan (26W) continued in the area of the northwest Pacific east of Honshu, Japan today with winds up to 90 kts. This system is currently moving towards the north and is likely to affect regional seismicity in southern and eastern Japan in the next several days. The antipode at 36S 31W is not a highly seismic area." (October 8, 2026)
The M 4.9 is at 102 degrees from TS Isaias and Hurricane Simon and may have
been promoted by constructive energy interference from those sources.
O: 07OCT2026 19:13:47 35.6N 140.5E MW=4.9 EMSC NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU,
O: 07OCT2026 22:14:07 36.4N 140.7E ML=4.0 EMSC NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU,
O: 08OCT2026 04:41:58 36.7N 142.4E mb=4.5 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU,
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 5.2 in Chagos Archipelago was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Chagos Archipelago in Avsallar.
This epicenter is near the antipode to Hurricane Simon and at the fourth
node from TS Koguma and may have been promoted by energy from those sourcs.
O: 07OCT2026 14:59:26 6.7S 72.3E MB=5.2 EMSC CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO REGION
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
HURRICANE ISAIAS
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR ISAIAS 2026-10-08 00:00 UT 24.0N 90.1W 85 kts Gulf of America (Mexico)
Tropical Storm Isaias continued today in the area of the Gulf of Mexico/America with winds up to 85 kts. It will likely track to the north as a strong hurricane reaching the Florida Panhandle/Mississippi coast around October 9-10. It could promote enhanced seismicity in the area from Southern Texas through Georgia near landfall. Associated low pressures associated with the first Gulf hurricane of the season could also induce a moderate to strong earthquake in the areas from Chiapas/Oaxaca to Guatemala and Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador as this storm passes north of this area. The antipode at 24S 90E is not a seismic region.
TROPICAL STORM KOGUMA (27W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS KOGUMA 2026-10-08 00:00 UT 17.7N 159.9E 80 kts northwest Pacific
Tropical Storm Koguma (27W) continued in the area of the Pacific northwest with winds up to 80 kts. It will likely continue to the west passing as a typhoon north of Guam with winds up to 150 kts around October 10-11 where some enhanced seismicity may occur. The antipode is at 18S 21W in Southern Atlantic region near the central Mid-Atlantic and Ascension Island where enhanced seismicity iACHonsidered likely.
TYPHOON NOLO (15E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH NOLO 2026-10-08 00:00 UT 27.4N 152.2E 65 kts North Pacific
Typhoon Nolo (17E) continued in the area of the northern Pacific with winds up to 65 kts. It will likely continue to the west but make a dramatic turn back to the north in the next day. No seismic zones lie in the path of Nolo at this time. The antipode is at 27S 28W in Southern Atlantic region where no enhanced seismicity is considered likely.
This system has the distinction of having been a hurricane and a typhoon - a rarity.
HURRICANE RACHEL (DEPRESSION 18E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR RACHEL 2026-10-08 00:00 UT 22.3N 123.9W 75 kts Southwest of Baja California, Mexico
Hurricane Rachel (Tropical Depression 18E) continued in the area southwest of Baja California, Mexico today winds up to 75 kts. It is expected to track towards the west and north and not to make landfall in Mexico and then to turn to the east hitting northern Baja California and Gulf of California and southern California around October 9-10 where landfall should occur. This may trigger enhanced seismicity in this area with a moderate earthquake possible at this time. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean, an semi-active seismic area near 22S 56E where some enhanced seismicity is possible on South Indian Ridge systems.
HURRICANE SIMON (DEPRESSION 19E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR SIMON 2026-10-08 00:00 UT 15.3N 103.0W 70 kts South of Michoacan, Mexico
Hurricane Simon (Tropical Depression 19E) formed in the area south of Michoacan, Mexico today winds up to 70 kts. It is expected to track towards the west and north and could make landfall as a major hurricane near Puerto Vallarta, Mexico with winds near 140 kts. Considerable damage is possible upon landfall. Regional seismic enhancement in the area of Michoacan and Colima is likely near the time of landfall with the potential for a moderate to strong earthquake in that time period. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean, an semi-active seismic area near 15S 77E where some enhanced seismicity is possible on South Indian Ridge systems.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 7, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
XXXX 1520 1548 1710 M6.7 (October 8, 2026) 5.4E-02 *
600 0514 0520 0525 C1.3 (October 7, 2026) 9.4E-04
610 0526 0534 0543 C1.6 (October 7, 2026) 1.7E-03
620 0847 0856 0907 C1.4 (October 7, 2026) 2.0E-03
New Britain M 4.9 08:46 UT
630 0907 0912 0916 C1.3 (October 7, 2026) 8.7E-04
650 1224 1239 1249 C1.1 (October 7, 2026) 1.7E-03
Sumbawa M 4.2 12:40 UT
Southern Texas M 2.7 12:25 UT
670 1249 1317 1344 C7.9 (October 7, 2026) 1.8E-02
Malaysia M 5.0 13:11 UT
Kermadec M 4.5 13:26 UT
730 2239 2246 2250 C1.1 (October 7, 2026) 7.4E-04
Gulf of California M 3.4 22:43 UT
740 2257 2305 2309 C1.0 (October 7, 2026) 7.1E-04
Guerrero M 4.0 22:58 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: quiet October 8 major storms October 9 active October 10. Solar M-flare chance: 40% X-class: 5% proton storm: 10%
AP Indicies: global: 6, high: 3, mid-latitude: 4, time of max k: 16:00-21:00 UT; Max k: 2.00 Global Kp 2.67 1800-2000, October 7; Sunspot Number: 78; Radio Flux: 114 October 7, 2026.
October 6, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
It was a relatively quiet day in global seismicity. This was probably
related to the dampening effect on seismicity with the strong (for this time in the solar cycle)
of the previous day - the strongest in the past 6 weeks. Enhanced seismicity
will probably follow on October 7-8, 2026.
The strongest earthquakes recorded in the world today were of M 5.0 - in the Mariana Islands and in the
area south of Fiji. Neither of these were unusual or felt.
O: 05OCT2026 20:22:58 24.4S 179.9E MB=5.0 EMSC SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
O: 05OCT2026 10:52:09 15.8N 147.4E MB=5.0 EMSC MARIANA ISLANDS REGION
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.4 in Southern Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern Alaska in Anchorage, Eagle River, Girdwood, Chugiak, Willow, and Palmer.
O: 06OCT2026 04:01:28 61.6N 149.9W ML=3.4 EMSC SOUTHERN ALASKA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.4 in Camina, Chile was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Camina, Chile in Tarapaca at Iquique.
O: 06OCT2026 00:41:28 19.9S 69.2W MB=4.4 EMSC TARAPACA, CHILE
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.6 in northeastern India was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of northeastern India in Mawlai, Meghalaya and in Assam at Diphu and Dispur.
EMSC reported this event in India was felt for a long time with a moderate intensity in India at Raha, Dhing, Nongpoh, Shillong.
O: 05OCT2026 22:53:42 26.4N 92.9E MB=4.6 EMSC ASSAM, INDIA
NEIC reported earthquakes of M 3.6, 2.8 and 2.3 in the Gulf of Santa Catalina, California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Gulf of Santa Catalina, California in La Mesa, San Diego, Spring Valley, San Marcos, Fallbrook, Escondido, among others.
O: 05OCT2026 20:22:30 33.3N 117.9W MW=3.6 EMSC GULF OF SANTA CATALINA, CALIF.
O: 05OCT2026 20:23:41 33.3N 117.9W ML=2.8 EMSC GULF OF SANTA CATALINA, CALIF.
O: 05OCT2026 22:06:16 33.3N 117.9W ML=2.3 EMSC GULF OF SANTA CATALINA, CALIF.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.8 in northern California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of northern California in Fortuna, Eureka and Rio Dell.
O: 05OCT2026 15:56:36 40.6N 124.0W MD=2.8 EMSC NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.7 in Southern California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern California in Goleta and Santa Barbara,
O: 05OCT2026 15:40:39 34.4N 119.8W ML=2.5 EMSC SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, CALIF.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.6-3.9 in Hawaii was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Hawaii in National Park, Volcano, Pahala, Honomu, Papaikou, Hilo, Papaaloa, Mountain View, Naalehu, Pahoa.
O: 06OCT2026 04:29:49 18.7N 156.8W ML=3.3 EMSC HAWAII REGION, HAWAII
O: 05OCT2026 12:31:43 19.4N 155.3W ML=3.9 EMSC ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.6 in Central Vanuatu was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central Vanuatu in Lugnville, Sanma.
O: 05OCT2026 11:47:07 15.7S 167.1E MB=4.6 EMSC VANUATU
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL STORM KOGUMA (27W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS KOGUMA 2026-10-06 00:00 UT 13.5N 166.9E 55 kts northwest Pacific
Tropical Storm Koguma (27W) continued in the area of the Pacific northwest with winds up to 55 kts. It will likely continue to the west passing as a typhoon north of Guam around October 10 where some enhanced seismicity may occur. The antipode is at 13S 13W in Southern Atlantic region near the central Mid-Atlantic and Ascension Island where enhanced seismicity iACHonsidered likely.
TYPHOON NOLO (15E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH NOLO 2026-10-06 00:00 UT 25.4N 169.2E 125 kts northwest of Hawaii
Typhoon Nolo (17E) continued in the area of the Pacific with winds up to 125 kts. It will likely continue to the west. The antipode is at 25S 11W in Southern Atlantic region where no enhanced seismicity is considered likely.
This system has the distinction of having been a hurricane and a typhoon - a rarity.
HURRICANE RACHEL (DEPRESSION 18E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR RACHEL 2026-10-06 00:00 UT 20.3N 118.2W 100 kts South of Baja California, Mexico
Hurricane Rachel (Tropical Depression 18E) continued in the area south of Baja California, Mexico today winds up to 100 kts. It is expected to track towards the west and north and not to make landfall in Mexico. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean, an semi-active seismic area near 20S 62E where some enhanced seismicity is possible on South Indian Ridge systems.
TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (26W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH CHOI-WAN 2026-10-06 00:00 UT 31.6N 146.4E 105 kts East of Izu Islands, Japan
Typhoon Choi-Wan (26W) continued in the area of the northwest Pacific east of the Izu Islands, Japan today with winds up to 105 kts. This system is currently moving towards the north and is likely to affect regional seismicity in southern and eastern Japan in the next several days. The antipode at 32S 34W is not a highly seismic area.
A tropical cyclone may be forming south of Oaxaca, Mexico. This system is currently at 12N 96W and moving to the west with winds up to 28 kts. Enhanced regional seismicity is not expected at this time.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 5, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
230 0606 0614 0619 C1.0 (October 5, 2026) 8.1E-04
Banda Sea M 4.8 06:14 UT
240 1134 1148 1155 C1.5 (October 5, 2026) 1.5E-03
Vanuatu M 4.6 11:47 UT
260 1155 1200 1202 C1.3 (October 5, 2026) 7.3E-04
Sumbawa M 4.4 12:17 UT
300 1836 1848 1857 M1.0 (October 5, 2026) 9.1E-03
Ethiopia M 4.6 19:47 UT
Southern California M 3.6 20:22 UT
350 2227 2234 2242 C1.3 (October 5, 2026) 1.2E-03
Baja California M 3.0 22:25 UT
New Guinea M 4.8 22:48 UT
Assam India M 4.6 22:53 UT
There were no solar flares noted by SWPC of C- or higher energy class October 4, 2026
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: active October 6 unsettled October 7-8. Solar M-flare chance: 15% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 24, high: 28, mid-latitude: 19, time of max k: 11:00-13:00 UT; Max k: 5.00 Global Kp 5.33 0300-0600, October 5; Sunspot Number: 58; Radio Flux: 101 October 5, 2026.
October 5, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
A moderately strong geomagnetic storm occurred throughout most of UT day October 4, 2026.
kP valuest reached 6 for at least 9 hours at high latitudes and reached a planetary
K-index of 5.67 late in the UT day. The planetary A-index was also high at 35 and 46 for high latitudes.
This is the strongest disturbance in the planetary geomagnetic field since
July 4, 2026 - three month ago - when planetary A reached 75 and exceeded
7 around 0300-0600 UT and high latitude A was 53 with at least nine hour
when high latitude K- reached 6.
The GFZ Hp30 index reached its maximum value in the past 24 hours as 6.67 between 18:30 and 19:00 on October 4, 2026.
This represents a strong geomagnetic storm even on this more finely calibrated
approach. Solar wind speeds reached a high value of 662 km/second the
strongest solar winds since September 8, 2026 when the highest was 678 km/sec.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.3 in Western Montana was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Western Montana with IV in Ovando and II in Great Falls and Missoula.
O: 05OCT2026 02:34:54 47.1N 113.1W ML=3.2 EMSC WESTERN MONTANA
O: 05OCT2026 02:34:54 47.1N 113.1W ML=3.3 NEIC WESTERN MONTANA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M in was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of
This was the strongest earthquake recorded on the earth in the past 24 hours.
It was not reported felt in this remote area. It occurred within a couple
of minutes of local solar midnight and may have been promoted by tidal and/or
geomagnetic stresses which maximize near this hour. This epicenter was near
sub-solar latitudes today. The last earthquake of M>=5.3 within about 250 km
of this epicenter in the Central Mid-Atlantic occurred as an M 6.6 on June 17, 2026
and an aftershock of M 5.4 on June 18. At the time this summary noted:
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.6 in the Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge.
It was followed by aftershocks of M 5.4 and M 5.1. These events were unlikely
to have been felt as the epicentral area is remote in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean
region. EMSC reported light shaking in Camayenne, Guinea. The rupture zone of this strike-slip segment of the Central Mid-Atlantic
(the longest on the ridge) appears to have been at least 100 km east-to-west.
This epicenter also lies near the geomagnetic equator, like the major earthquakes
in Sulawesi, Indonesia and Mindanao, Philippines and may have been promoted
by energy from geomagnetic effects. No tsunami was expected nor observed. This is the strongest earthquake
in this segment of the central Mid-Atlantic Ridge within about 200 km of this
epicenter since an M 6.9 on September 4, 2022 and before that an M 6.8 on January 12, 2005.
At the time this summary noted:
" ... The strongest earthquake today was an M 6.8 within about 100 km of
the equator on the central Mid-Atlantic Ridge. This is about the maximum
possible earthquake in this region of the Central Mid-Atlantic. Earthquakes of
similar size have occurred on Feb. 16, 1996; May 18, 1995; August 28, 1973 and
August 5, 1971 in the region (5S-5N 15-25W). No larger earthquakes have been
reported in this area in the past 50 years. Few seismically active regions
occur at cusp distances from this epicenter. Among areas most likely to see
additional enhanced activity in the next 10 days are the regions of the
subduction zone from northern Peru/Ecuador to central Peru and the
Dodecanese Islands, Greece (at 60 degrees); eastern Mexico
(at 72 degrees); eastern Alaska and Nepal (at 102-108 degrees); off the
east coast of Honshu, Japan (see the M 5.0-5.5 that occurred there later today
below); Mindanao, Philippines, Halmahera, Ceram, Banda, Timor, Indonesia
(143-148 degrees). The antipode occurs at 1N 160E an area where little seismicity
occurs. Seismicity within about 10 degrees of the antipode could be enhanced
in the regions of the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Santa Cruz Islands, New
Britain and New Ireland. ..." (January 12, 2005)
"The strongest earthquake in the world today, however, was an M 6.9 in the
Central Mid-Atlantic which occurred simultaneously with the start of the
major geomagnetic storm today about 09:00 UT. This is the strongest earthquake
within about 250 km of this epicenter in at least 30 years. It is located near
the geomagnetic equator and was probably triggered by effects associated
with the sudden commencement of the geomagnetic storm at that time." (September 4, 2022, June 17, 2026)
A strong geomagnetic storm was in progress when this earthquake occurred.
This epicenter is at 142-146 degrees from the loyalty Islands, Hurricane Rachel and Typhoon Kaguma
and Hurricane Nolo; at 102 degrees from the Flores Sea and may have been
promoted by constructive interference of energy associated with those sources.
O: 05OCT2026 01:18:50 0.4S 20.0W MB=5.3 EMSC CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 off the coast of Oregon was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Oregon in Lincoln City and Eugene.
O: 04OCT2026 22:13:25 44.6N 128.9W MB=4.2 EMSC OFF COAST OF OREGON
O: 04OCT2026 18:56:14 44.2N 129.1W ML=3.2 EMSC OFF COAST OF OREGON
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.8 in Hindu Kush, Afghanistan was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Jammu and Kashmir at Srinagar, India.
EMSC reported it was felt with miderate intensity in Pakistan at Mingora, Mardan, Peshawar, Mansehra, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, and in India a Gandarbal, Srinagar, in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, Kabul, Afghanistan and Dushanbe, Tajikistan.
This epicenter is near the fourth node (90 degrees) from Tropical Storm Koguma, and
Hurricane Nolo and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 04OCT2026 20:27:25 36.6N 71.0E MB=4.8 EMSC HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
NEIC reported an earthquake series of M 4.7, 5.0, 4.6, M 4.3, M 4 in was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Turkey at Gaziantep and Migde.
EMSC reported strong to moderate regional shaking occurred with each of these
events. The mainshock of M 5.0 occurred following two moderater foreshocks and
was reported by EMSC to have been felt in Turkey in Jozan, Kadirli, Yenicekala, Kahramanmaras, Osmaniye, Ceyhan, Adana, Dortyol, Yuregir, Seyhabm and as far as 300 km from the epicenter in Syria and Cyprus and Lebanon.
This earthquake occurred near local solar noon at the first peak of disturbance
of today's geomagnetic storm when hp30 was 5.66 and may have been triggered
by the sudden commencement of that storm.
This epicenter is at 104 degrees from Colombia and at the fourth node (90 degrees) from
Typhoon Choi-wan and Flores, Indonesia and may have been promoted by constructive interference
of energy from those sources.
O: 04OCT2026 11:19:25 37.7N 36.1E MB=4.7 EMSC CENTRAL TURKEY
O: 04OCT2026 11:43:23 37.7N 36.1E mb=5.0 EMSC CENTRAL TURKEY
O: 04OCT2026 11:36:26 37.8N 36.1E mb=4.6 EMSC CENTRAL TURKEY
O: 04OCT2026 16:00:26 37.8N 36.1E mb=4.3 EMSC CENTRAL TURKEY
O: 04OCT2026 22:51:30 37.8N 36.1E mb=4.2 EMSC CENTRAL TURKEY
Among other earthquakes close associated with the sudden commencement
of today's geomagnetic storm were events in Yap, Micronesia and in Myanmar.
The earthquake in Myanmar of M 4.6 was felt lightly in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh and occurred with a couple of minutes
of local solar noon and was probably promoted by the geomagnetic storm.
This epicenter in Myanmar is at 144 degrees from Chiapas, Mexico and at the fifth node (72 degrees)
from Tropical Storm Koguma and may have been promoted by constructive interference
of energy from those sources.
O: 03OCT2026 18:12:47 20.7N 93.4E MB=4.9 EMSC MYANMAR
O: 04OCT2026 05:55:07 21.4N 93.8E mb=4.6 EMSC MYANMAR
The event in Yap, Indonesia occurred at 101 degrees from Hurricane Rachel and at 142 degrees
from Colombia and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 04OCT2026 05:57:54 11.2N 139.3E MB=4.7 EMSC STATE OF YAP, MICRONESIA
NEIC reported earthquakes of M 5.1 and N 4.9 in the Volcano Islands were felt with intensity up to II-III in the epicentral area(s)
The last earthquake of M>=5.1 within about 200 km of these events
in the Volcano Islands occurred as an M 5.5 on August 15, 2026.
This events in the Volcano Islands, Japan occurred as Typhoon Choi-wan
saw its eye passing over these epicenters. This triggering had been
anticipated in previous issues of this summary as:
"TYPH CHOI-WAN 2026-10-04 00:00 UT 22.1N 147.1E 135 kts Northern Mariana Islands
Typhoon Choi-Wan (26W) continued in the area of the Volcano Islands today with winds up to 135 kts. This system is currently moving towards the north and is likely to affect regional seismicity in the Volcano and Bonin Islands at this time. The antipode at 22S 33W in the Atlantic is not a seismic area." (October 4, 2026)
This epicenter in the Volcano Islands is also at the fourth node (91 degrees)
from Hurricabe Rachel and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 04OCT2026 11:12:48 22.8N 144.6E MW=5.1 EMSC VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
O: 05OCT2026 07:13:38 22.8N 144.0E mb=4.9 EMSC VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.6 South of Java, Indonesia was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of South of Java, Indonesia in Pule, Banjar Petuludesa and Dumandesa, Indonesia.
O: 05OCT2026 02:16:31 9.3S 113.0E ML=4.4 EMSC SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
O: 04OCT2026 12:36:49 9.3S 112.7E mb=4.6 EMSC SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL STORM KOGUMA (27W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS KOGUMA 2026-10-05 00:00 UT 11.5N 167.9E 45 kts northwest Pacific
Tropical Storm Koguma (27W) formed in the area of the Pacific northwest with winds up to 45 kts. It will likely continue to the west passing as a typhoon north of Guam around October 10 where some enhanced seismicity may occur. The antipode is at 11S 12W in Southern Atlantic region near the central Mid-Atlantic and Ascension Island where enhanced seismicity iACHonsidered likely.
HURRICANE NOLO (15E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR NOLO 2026-10-05 00:00 UT 25.6N 176.2E 130 kts northwest of Hawaii
Hurricane Nolo (17E) continued in the area of the Pacific northwest of Hawaii with winds up to 130 kts. It will likely continue to the west. The antipode is at 25S 4W in Southern Atlantic region where no enhanced seismicity is considered likely.
HURRICANE RACHEL (DEPRESSION 18E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR RACHEL 2026-10-05 00:00 UT 20.5N 115.6W 90 kts South of Baja California, Mexico
Hurricane Rachel (Tropical Depression 18E) continued in the area south of Baja California, Mexico today winds up to 90 kts. It is expected to track towards the west and north and not to make landfall in Mexico. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean, an semi-active seismic area near 20S 65E where some enhanced seismicity is possible on South Indian Ridge systems.
TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (26W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH CHOI-WAN 2026-10-05 00:00 UT 22.1N 147.1E 135 kts Northern Mariana Islands/Volcano Islands
Typhoon Choi-Wan (26W) continued in the area of the Volcano Islands today with winds up to 135 kts. This system is currently moving towards the north and is likely to affect regional seismicity in the Volcano and Bonin Islands at this time. The antipode at 22S 35W in the Atlantic is not a seismic area.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 4, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
There were no solar flares noted by SWPC of C- or higher energy class October 4, 2026
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: minor storms October 5 active October 5 unsettled October 7. Solar M-flare chance: 5% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 36, high: 46, mid-latitude: 21, time of max k: 11:00-21:00 UT; Max k: 6.00 Global Kp 5.67 2000-2200, October 4; Sunspot Number: 55; Radio Flux: 92 October 4, 2026.
A moderately strong geomagnetic storm occurred throughout most of UT day October 4, 2026.
kP valuest reached 6 for at least 9 hours at high latitudes and reached a planetary
K-index of 5.67 late in the UT day. The planetary A-index was also high at 35 and 46 for high latitudes.
This is the strongest disturbance in the planetary geomagnetic field since
July 4, 2026 - three month ago - when planetary A reached 75 and exceeded
7 around 0300-0600 UT and high latitude A was 53 with at least nine hour
when high latitude K- reached 6.
The GFZ Hp30 index reached its maximum value in the past 24 hours as 6.67 between 18:30 and 19:00 on October 3, 2026.
This represents a strong geomagnetic storm even on this more finely calibrated
approach.
October 4, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
A moderate geomagnetic storm began around 01:00 on October 4, 2026. The commencement
of this storm was marked by a sudden increase in the geomagnetic field strength
as measured on the GOES-18 magnetometer beginning about 00:45 UT. Electron flux ceased
at the beginning of this geomagnetic excursion.
An earthquake of M 4.9 in the South Sandwich Islands was nearly antipode at the
time of this geomagnetic disturbance and at local solar midnight. A similar M 4.9
in Eastern New Guinea was within minutes of local solar noon at the commencement
of this storm. Another event at local solar noon occurred today in Myanmar as
an M 4.6 in Myanmar (within about 5 minutes of local solar noon). This event in Myanamr
was reported lightly felt in Ukhia, Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh. A moderate M 4.3
in Crete coincided with the beginning of the geomagnetic storm at 00:47 UT.
NEIC reported this event in Crete with intensity III in Iraklion and Gazion and II in Perama, Rethimni.
This event was reported by EMSC as being felt lightly in Crete ar Voroi, Ano Kalesia, Gazi, Irakleion, and Nea Alikarnassos.
It is likely these events were promoted by geomagnetic stresses associated with minor
solar flares and the geomagnetic storm commencement.
The M 4.9 in the South Sandwich Islands occurred at 114 degrees from a
similar event in Eastern New Guinea 11 minutes and 6 seconds after it.
While the diffracted P-wave from New Guinea is in the vicinity of the South Sandwich Islands
at this time it arrives too late to be an element of direct triggering
in this case - about 3 minutes too late.
The epicenter in South Sandwich Islands, however is at 104 degrees
from Hurricane Rachel and near this from the Loyalty Islands and Flores
Sea as well as at 141 degrees from Typhoon Choi-Van and may have been
promoted by constructive interference of energy from those sources.
O: 04OCT2026 01:47:52 58.2S 23.4W MB=4.9 EMSC SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
Like the earthquake in the South Sandwich Islands, the M 4.9 in Eastern
New Guinea occurred at 103 degrees from the eye of Hurricane Rachel and
at the seventh node from Hurricane Nolo and may have been promoted by
energy from those sources.
O: 04OCT2026 01:38:46 6.6S 147.1E MB=4.9 EMSC EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G
O: 03OCT2026 18:12:47 20.7N 93.4E MB=4.9 EMSC MYANMAR
O: 04OCT2026 05:55:07 21.4N 93.8E mb=4.6 EMSC MYANMAR
The strongest earthquakes of the day occurred in the area of Indonesia.
An M 5.9 in Sumbawa was reported by NEIC as felt with IV in Bima Nusa and III in Bali, Indonesia. EMSC reported it was felt in Bonggor, Cempa and Banjar Petuludesa, Indonesia.
The other notable Indonesian quake today occurred in Northern Sumatra with M 5.6.
An earthquake of M 4.5 followed the Sumbawa earthquake 18 minutes and 40 seconds
later. This is the time it takes to travel the 69 degrees between
these two epicenters and it is likely that the Kamchatka quake was triggered
by the disturbance caused by the S-wave passing through the epicentral area.
The earthquake in northern Sumatra lies at the seventh node (51 degrees)
from Typhoon Choi-wan; at 144 degrees from Hurricane Rach and at the fourth
node (90 degrees) from Hurricane Nolo and may have been promoted by energy
from those sources.
O: 03OCT2026 23:37:34 4.8N 95.2E MB=5.6 EMSC NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
O: 04OCT2026 01:47:52 58.2S 23.4W MB=4.9 EMSC SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
The earthquake in Sumbawa is near the Flores Sea and lies
near 144 degrees from Chiapas, Mexico and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 04OCT2026 01:32:41 9.7S 119.0E ML=4.0 EMSC SUMBAWA REGION, INDONESIA
O: 03OCT2026 22:55:54 9.6S 118.9E Mw=5.9 EMSC SUMBAWA REGION, INDONESIA
Kamchatka was notable today, not only for the wave-induced quake mentioned
above but for a series of moderate earthquakes earlier on October 3, 2026 as
noted in that issue of this summary:
"This series began with an M 4.6 in Kamchatka 30 minutes after an unusual
quake in SE Australia of M 4.7 near Melbourne. These two epicenters
are separated by the fourth node (90 degrees distance). Several seismic
waves including a PkkP and SSS wave may have help trigger the event
in Kamchatka. The mainshock of M 5.8 occurred 33 minutes after Australia
event with the passage of the SSS wave from that source. It was followed by
its first major afershock of M 4.7 15 minutes 33 seconds after the mainshock.
This coincides with the ScS reflected wave return to the epicenter and,
as has often been noted in this summary, was probably responsible for triggering
this aftershock. The next moderate Kamchatka aftershock coincided with the ScS2 wave
from the mainshock (and the ScS wave from the first aftershock) at slightly
more than 15 minutes time." (October 3, 3026)
O: 03OCT2026 23:14:43 51.1N 157.8E MB=4.5 EMSC NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03OCT2026 19:30:57 51.4N 159.8E mb=4.5 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03OCT2026 10:55:05 51.6N 159.9E mb=4.5 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03OCT2026 07:52:35 51.7N 159.6E mb=4.6 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03OCT2026 20:00:45 51.7N 159.6E mb=5.1 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03OCT2026 10:02:57 52.0N 160.6E mb=4.2 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03OCT2026 22:55:54 9.6S 118.9E Mw=5.9 EMSC SUMBAWA REGION, INDONESIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.5 in Southern Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern Alaska in Wasilla, Chugiak and Anchorage.
O: 04OCT2026 01:58:07 62.0N 149.1W ML=3.5 EMSC CENTRAL ALASKA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.9 in Lake Tahoe, California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Lake Tahoe, California with III in Echo Lake, Twin Bridges, Camino and II in South Lake Tahooe, Tahoma, Markleeville, Bollock Pines, Kyburz, and Glenbrook, Nevada.
O: 03OCT2026 15:28:35 38.7S 176.7E MB=4.1 GEONET 7 people reported feeling this earthquake with 3 at weak intensity and 4 with light shaking and 0 with moderate intensity 0 with strong, 0 with severe and 0 with extreme intensity.
GeoNet reported an earthquake of M 4.1 in North Island, New Zealand was felt with the following parameters today:
O: 03OCT2026 15:28:35 38.7S 176.7E MB=4.1 GEONET 7 people reported feeling this earthquake with 3 at weak intensity and 4 with light shaking and 0 with moderate intensity 0 with strong, 0 with severe and 0 with extreme intensity.
This epicenter is located near the fourth node (90 degrees) from Hurricane Rachel
and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 03OCT2026 15:28:35 38.7S 176.8E ML=4.0 EMSC NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.3 in Northern California/Nevada was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Northern California in Echo Lake, Markleeville, South Lake Tahoe, Kyburz, Pioneer, Pollock Pines, Grass Valley, and in Nevada at Minden, Glenbrook and Gardnerville.
O: 03OCT2026 13:58:12 39.0N 115.3W ML=3.3 EMSC NEVADA
O: 04OCT2026 06:34:52 38.9N 115.3W ML=2.2 EMSC NEVADA
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
HURRICANE NOLO (15E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR NOLO 2026-10-04 00:00 UT 23.3N 174.1W 130 kts northwest of Hawaii
Hurricane Nolo (17E) continued in the area northwest of Hawaii with winds up to 130 kts. It will likely continue to the west and not to hit the island of Hawaii. The antipode is at 23S 6E in Southern Atlantic region where no enhanced seismicity is considered likely.
HURRICANE RACHEL (DEPRESSION 18E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR RACHEL 2026-10-04 00:00 UT 19.5N 112.6W 90 kts South of Baja California, Mexico
Hurricane Rachel (Tropical Depression 18E) continued in the area south of Baja California, Mexico today winds up to 90 kts. It is expected to track towards the west and north and not to make landfall in Mexico. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean, an semi-active seismic area near 19S 67E where some enhanced seismicity is possible on South Indian Ridge systems.
TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (26W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH CHOI-WAN 2026-10-04 00:00 UT 22.1N 147.1E 135 kts Northern Mariana Islands
Typhoon Choi-Wan (26W) continued in the area of the Volcano Islands today with winds up to 135 kts. This system is currently moving towards the north and is likely to affect regional seismicity in the Volcano and Bonin Islands at this time. The antipode at 22S 33W in the Atlantic is not a seismic area.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 3, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
There were no solar flares noted by SWPC of C- or higher energy class October 2, 2026
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: minor storms October 4, 2026 active October 5 and 6. Solar M-flare chance: 5% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 7, high: 8, mid-latitude: 8, time of max k: 06:00-10:00 UT; Max k: 4.00 Global Kp 2.67 0300-0900, October 3; Sunspot Number: 37; Radio Flux: 93 October 3, 2026.
The GFZ Hp30 index reached its maximum value in the past 24 hours as 3.00 between 08:30 and 09:00 on October 3, 2026.
No geomagnetic storms occurred in this time period.
October 3, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
Two geomagnetic field strength spikes were observed on GOES satellite magnetometers
today. The first on GOES-18 (at 72 W longitude) began about 08:30 UT on October 2
with normal operations continuing about an hour later after an arcjet maneuver corrected
the orbit. The second on GOES-19 (at 137 W longitude began about 12:55 UT on
October 2, 2026 and lasted about an hour until an arcject maneuver returned
the satellite to normal operations. A sudden enhancement in the geomagnetic
strength also occurred on October 3, 2026 beginning about 04:50 UT - local solar
noon at GOES-18 and peaked around 06:00 UT on October 3. This was probably
associated with a minor geomagnetic disturbance. Electron flux ceased
at the beginning of this geomagnetic excursion.
An unusual earthquake of M 4.7 was widely felt in southeastern Australia
today. NEIC reported it was widely felt in Victoria, Australia with IV in Wonthaggi, Moe-Yallourn, Warragul, Taralgon, III in Pakenham, Melton, Cranbourne, Crib Point, Shepparton-Mooroopna and Sale, Somerville, Carigieburn, Melbourne, Baccus Marsh, Healesville and II in Sunbury, Hastings and Bairnsdale. EMSC reported it was felt with moderate intensity and an earthquake
sound in Southeastern Australia at Darnum, Warragul, Grantville, Bunyip, Coronet Bay, Neerim South , Pakenham, Clyde North, Beaconsfield, Cockatoo, Cranbourne North, Narre Warren, Avonsleigh, Langwarrin South, Macclesfield, Skye, Carrum Downs, Sassafras, Olinda, Victoria, EndeavorHills, Doveton, Mount Martha, Warburton, Lysterfield, Ferny Creek, Mornington, Kysterfield, Dandenong, Keysborough and as far as 200 km from the epicenter in Footscray, Altona, and Creswick and Sarsfield among others.
This is the strongest earthquake recorded by NEIC within about 200 km
of this epicenter in Australia since an M 4.7-4.9 on October 21, 2023 and an M 5.4 on June 19, 2012. An aftershock of M 3.2 was also felt near Korumburra. At the time
this summary noted:
"An unusual earthquake of M 4.9-5.0 was widely felt in Southeastern Australia today. NEIC reported maximum intensity V in Victoria at Colac and IV in Ocean Grove-Barwon, Lara and Clifton Springs and III in Geelong, Warrnambool, Leopold. Ballarat, Crib Point, Baccus Marsh among others.
An aftershock of M 3.5 was reported with shaking in Victoria at Colan and Melton with III in Lara, Warrnambool, Ballarat, Melbourne, Cranbourne, Ararat.
The mainshock of M 5.2 occurred within minutes of local solar midnight, a time
when tidal stresses maximize. The last earthquake of M>=5.2 within about 200 km
of this epicenter in southeastern Australia was an M 5.4 on June 18, 2012 - the only
such event in this region in the past 35 years." (October 21, 2023)
and
"A moderate earthquakes of M 5.2 occurred off the southeastern coast of Australia
today and was widely felt in Victoria, New South Wales and Canberra. NEIC
reported the following intensities in Australia: Australian Capital Territory Canberra (3),
in New South Wales at Albury (3), Batemans Bay (3), Corowa (2), Deniliquin (2), Queanbeyan (1), Sydney (3), Tumut (3), Ulladulla (3), Wagga Wagga (2), and Wollongong (2), in Tasmania at Kingston-Blackmans Bay (3), and in Victoria at Ararat (4), Baccus Marsh (3), Bairnsdale (4), Ballarat (2),
Benalla (3), Bendigo (3), Castlemaine (3), Clifton Springs (3), Craigieburn (4), Cranbourne (4), Crib Point (4), Echuca- Moama (3), Geelong (3), Hastings (4), Healesville (4), Kyabram (3), Lakes Entrance (3), Lara (3), Leopold (3), Maryborough (4), Melbourne (4), Melton (3), Moe- Yallourn (5), Morwell (5), Ocean Grove- Barwon Heads (3), Pakenham (4), Sale (4), Shepparton- Mooroopna (3), Somerville (4),
Sunbury (4), Swan Hill (2), Traralgon (5), Wangaratta (3), Warragul (5), Wodonga (3), Wonthaggi (4), and Yarrawonga- Mulwala (3).
This is the largest earthquake to hit Victoria in decades. Because it was
offshore, damage was minimized occurring as cracked walls and as damage
to items which fell from shelves in supermarkets and other stores. It is
the largest since 1982 and the third largest in the past 100 years in the
region of Victoria. Damage was done to supermarkets and pharmacies in
Moe, Newborough, Trafalgar and Morwell and in some cases shelves collapsed.
The shaking lasted for about 40 seconds. No damage occurred to infrastructure
such as roads, rail, dams and power supply. An earthquake of M 5.5 hit near
this on June 16, 1981 with the largest in modern times an M 6.0 on June 20,
1969 exactly 43 years ago today. (the two events both occurred at about 1100 UT
as well). With the three largest events occurring near the summer solstice
there could be a seasonal seismic factor involved in this timing as well.
The location of this event could also be fodder for the P103 theory which
suggest seismicity is increased at locations 101-108 degrees from major
earthquakes. The epicenter of this event is at 101 degrees from the great
this year as well as in this range from the last major global earthquake -
the M 6.8 in Argentina on May 28." (June 19, 2012)
With this in mind it is interesting to note that this epicenter is
Australia was at 103 degrees from the epicenter of dissipation of
Hurricane Odalys as reported in this summary on September 28, 2026:
"HURR ODALYS 2026-09-28 00:00 UT 22.8N 123.2W 50 kts West of Central America
Hurricane ODALYS (Tropical Depression 16E) continued in the area east of Central America in the North Pacific today as a hurricane with winds up to 50 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected and this storm is expected to dissipate in the North Pacific in the next two days. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean - an semi-active seismic area near 23S 57E." (September 28, 2026)
This epicenter is also at the fifth node from Hurricane Nolo (72 degrees)
and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 02OCT2026 16:01:39 38.4S 145.9E MB=4.7 EMSC NEAR S.E. COAST OF AUSTRALIA
O: 02OCT2026 16:56:33 38.4S 145.9E ML=3.1 EMSC NEAR S.E. COAST OF AUSTRALIA
O: 03OCT2026 02:25:13 38.4S 145.9E ML=2.5 EMSC NEAR S.E. COAST OF AUSTRALIA
A strong series began with an M 4.6 in Kamchatka 30 minutes after the unusual
quake in SE Australia of M 4.7 near Melbourne. These two epicenters
are separated by the fourth node (90 degrees distance). Several seismic
waves including a PkkP and SSS wave may have help trigger the event
in Kamchatka. The mainshock of M 5.8 occurred 33 minutes after Australia
event with the passage of the SSS wave from that source. It was followed by
its first major afershock of M 4.7 15 minutes 33 seconds after the mainshock.
This coincides with the ScS reflected wave return to the epicenter and,
as has often been noted in this summary, was probably responsible for triggering
this aftershock. The next moderate Kamchatka aftershock coincided with the ScS2 wave
from the mainshock (and the ScS wave from the first aftershock) at slightly
more than 15 minutes time.
The M 5.8 and some of the moderate aftershocks were reported by EMSC to have been felt with
moderate intensity in Russia at Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky.
These epicenters in Kamchatka are located at the fifth node (72 degrees)
from Hurricane Rachel and also from the Loyalty Islands and may have
been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 03OCT2026 03:07:13 51.0N 160.9E MB=4.5 EMSC EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS
O: 03OCT2026 03:07:13 51.0N 160.9E MB=4.5 EMSC EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS
O: 02OCT2026 16:50:12 51.4N 160.0E MB=4.7 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 02OCT2026 17:05:14 51.5N 159.6E mb=4.6 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 02OCT2026 18:21:15 51.5N 159.9E mb=4.5 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 02OCT2026 20:07:11 51.5N 160.0E mb=4.7 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 02OCT2026 21:04:46 51.5N 160.0E mb=4.6 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03OCT2026 00:20:40 51.5N 160.0E mb=4.7 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 02OCT2026 19:11:46 51.6N 160.1E mb=4.2 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 02OCT2026 16:57:32 51.7N 159.9E mb=4.6 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 02OCT2026 18:25:21 51.7N 159.7E mb=5.0 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 02OCT2026 20:54:15 51.7N 159.6E mb=5.0 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 02OCT2026 23:59:28 51.7N 159.7E mb=4.6 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03OCT2026 07:52:35 51.7N 159.6E mb=4.6 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 02OCT2026 16:34:39 51.8N 159.6E Mw=5.8 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 02OCT2026 20:25:30 51.8N 159.5E mb=4.9 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 02OCT2026 23:54:14 51.8N 159.4E mb=4.7 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03OCT2026 00:01:38 51.9N 159.3E mb=4.8 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 02OCT2026 20:27:32 52.1N 159.1E mb=5.3 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03OCT2026 02:59:06 52.2N 160.2E mb=5.0 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 02OCT2026 20:38:20 52.3N 158.4E mb=4.7 EMSC NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 02OCT2026 16:02:09 53.0N 158.9E mb=4.6 EMSC NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.8 in Colima, Mexico was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Colima, Mexico in Tecoman and San Andres Ixtlan. <exico
This event occurred at a position which was passed over two days ago by
Hurricane Rachel and was probably promoted by energy from that storm as noted
in previous issues of this summary.
"Tropical Storm Rachel (Tropical Depression 18E) continued in the area south of Michoacan, Mexico today winds up to 70 kts. It is expected to rapidly intensity becoming a hurricane in the next two days. It will probably track along the south coast of Mexico towards Baja California and the Gulf of California as a hurricane where landfall will occur. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but this storm could enhance seismicity in Baja and the Gulf of California, Mexico where a landfall at hurricane force could occur around September 30-October 2, 2026. Some enhanced seismicity in Baja and the Gulf of California could occur at that time. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean, an semi-active seismic area near 15S 76E." (September 30, 2026)
This epicenter is at 102 degrees from the eye of Typhoon Choi-Wan at the
time of its occurrence and may have been promoted by energy from that source
as well.
O: 02OCT2026 06:53:35 18.8N 104.2W MW=4.8 EMSC OFFSHORE COLIMA, MEXICO
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.6 in Northern Peru was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central Peru in Trujillo.
O: 02OCT2026 10:13:19 8.2S 79.4W ML=4.0 EMSC NEAR COAST OF NORTHERN PERU
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.3 in Bali, Indonesia was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Bali, Indonesia in Banjar Kerobokan and Legian.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 5.3 in southeastern Honshu, Japan was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of southeastern Honshu, Japan in Chiba, Narashino, Urayasu, Tokyo, Kawasaki, Toda, among others.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.3 in Valparaiso, Chile was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Valparaiso, Chile in Vina del Mar, La Ligua, Quilipue, Santiago, Graneros, Mostazal.
NEIC reported this earthquake was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Santiago at Vina del Mar, Valparaiso and in Santiago.
O: 02OCT2026 17:28:17 32.7S 71.7W MW=4.3 EMSC OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.5 in Kyushu, Japan was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Hyushu, Japan in Kagoshima.
O: 03OCT2026 06:05:20 29.2N 130.6E MB=4.8 EMSC RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.5 in Hawaii was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Hawaii in Volcano, Hawaii National Park, Mountain View, Hilo and Naalehu.
O: 02OCT2026 17:55:58 19.4N 155.3W ML=3.5 EMSC ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in Venezuela was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Venezuela in La Dolorita, Miranda.
O: 02OCT2026 16:31:26 10.5N 62.5W MB=5.0 EMSC GULF OF PARIA, VENEZUELA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in North Island, New Zealand was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of North Island, New Zealand with V in Taranaki, at Urenui and Stratford; IV in New Plymouth, Patea and II-III in Manaia and Hamilton and Kawhis, Waikato.
GeoNet reported the following data for this event:
O: 02OCT2026 13:57:17 39.1S 174.4E MB=5.9 GEONET 7334 people reported feeling this earthquake with 1590 at weak intensity and 1647 with light shaking and 2989 with moderate intensity 1001 with strong, 89 with severe and 16 with extreme intensity.
This epicenter was at the fourth node (90 degrees) from Hurricane Rachel
at the time of its occurrence and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 02OCT2026 13:57:15 39.1S 174.3E MB=5.0 EMSC NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in Azerbaijan was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Azerbaijan in Zaqatala, Belokany, Cinarli, Telavi and Hereti, Georgia.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.5 in Kyrgyzstan was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Kyrgyzstan in Kazakhstan at Almaty and Taraz.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.5 in India was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Indian Maharastra at Nanded.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.1 in Greece was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Greece i in Chalandritsa, Patra, Mindiloglion, Monodhendrioin, Paralia, Vrachnaiika, Kaminia, Aktaio, Longos, Nafpaktos, Pyrgos, Kariotika Kayas.
This epicenter is at 102-103 degrees from Typhoon Choi-Wan and the Flores Sea
and may have been promoted by constructive interference of energy from
those sources. It is also at 146 degrees from the Loyalty Islands.
O: 02OCT2026 15:26:43 38.1N 21.8E ML=4.1 EMSC GREECE
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TD 19E 2026-10-03 00:00 UT 14.8N 127.1W 35 kts Southeast of Hawaii
Tropical Depression 19E continued in the area southeast of Hawaii today with winds up to 35 kts. It will likely continue to the east and not to hit the island of Hawaii. The antipode is at 15S 43E in Southern Africa near Madagascar and the Mozambique Strait where some enhanced seismicity has occurred with previous storms at this location.
HURRICANE NOLO (15E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR NOLO 2026-10-03 00:00 UT 23.1N 171.1W 110 kts northwest of Hawaii
Hurricane Nolo (17E) continued in the area northwest of Hawaii with winds up to 110 kts. It will likely continue to the west and not to hit the island of Hawaii. The antipode is at 23S 6E in Southern Atlantic region where no enhanced seismicity is considered likely.
HURRICANE RACHEL (DEPRESSION 18E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR RACHEL 2026-10-03 00:00 UT 19.2N 111.6W 95 kts South of Baja California, Mexico
Hurricane Rachel (Tropical Depression 18E) continued in the area south of Baja California, Mexico today winds up to 95 kts. It is expected to track towards the west and north and not to make landfall in Mexico. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean, an semi-active seismic area near 19S 68E.
TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (26W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH CHOI-WAN 2026-10-03 00:00 UT 19.7N 145.6E 110 kts Northern Mariana Islands
Typhoon Choi-Wan (26W) continued in the area of the Northern Mariana Islands today with winds up to 135 kts. This system is currently moving towards the north and is likely to affect regional seismicity in the Mariana Islands at this time. The antipode at 19S 33W in the Atlantic is not a seismic area.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 2, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
There were no solar flares noted by SWPC of C- or higher energy class October 2, 2026
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: minor storms October 4, 2026 active October 3 and 5. Solar M-flare chance: 5% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 3, high: 0, mid-latitude: 2, time of max k: 16:00-24:00 UT; Max k: 1.33 Global Kp 1.33 2200-2400, October 2; Sunspot Number: 37; Radio Flux: 92 October 2, 2026.
The geomagnetic field was quiet today. The GFZ Hp30 index did not exceed 2.33 during
the past 24 hours. No geomagnetic storms occurred.
October 2, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
An earthquake of M 4.8 occurred today in the area offshore Colima State in Mexico.
O: 02OCT2026 06:53:35 18.8N 104.2W MW=4.8 EMSC OFFSHORE COLIMA, MEXICO
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.6 in Northern Peru was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central Peru in Trujillo.
O: 02OCT2026 06:14:44 8.1S 78.8W ML=4.1 EMSC NEAR COAST OF NORTHERN PERU
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.3 in Bali, Indonesia was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Bali, Indonesia in Banjar Kerobokan and Legian.
O: 02OCT2026 00:46:54 8.7S 114.9E ML=4.3 EMSC BALI REGION, INDONESIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.5 in Eastern Honshu, Japan was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Eastern Honshu, Japan in Tokyo and Kawagoe, Saitama.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.1 in northern Honshu, Japan was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of northern Honshu, Japan at Miyako, Iwate.
O: 01OCT2026 17:17:20 39.9N 143.1E MW=5.1 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.3 in Eastern Honshu, Japan was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Eastern Honshu, Japan with III in Chiba, Ibaraki, Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, Prefectures, Japan.
O: 01OCT2026 12:27:12 35.6N 140.6E MW=5.3 EMSC NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAP
NEIC reported earthquakes of M 4.7 and M 4.6 in the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of then northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge was note felt.
Tropical Storms Kay and Hanna passed over this epicenter in the past several days
and probably helped promoted this seismic activity as expected in previous
issues of this summary:
"TS HANNA 2026-10-01 00:00 UT 33.2N 43.3W 35 kts Northern Mid-Atlantic
TS Hanna continued in the area of the northern mid-Atlantic today with winds up to 35 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but some enhanced seismicity at this time is possible in the North Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The antipode is in in southeastern Austratlia near 33S 137E." (October 1, 2026)
and
"TS FAY 2026-09-25 00:00 UT 29.8N 41.2W 50 kts Northern Mid-Atlantic
TS FAY continued in the area of the central Atlantic today with winds up to 50 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but some enhanced seismicity at this time is possible in the North Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The antipode is in in southeastern Austratlia near 30S 139E." (September 29, 2026)
O: 01OCT2026 07:40:06 31.1N 41.4W MB=4.6 EMSC NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
O: 01OCT2026 10:03:16 31.1N 41.4W mb=4.7 EMSC NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.4 in Hawaii was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Hawaii in Volcano, Hawaii National Park and Mountain View.
This activity in Hawaii may have been promoted by energy from Hurricane Nolo
which was passing south of Hawaii when thie event occurred as noted in this
and previous summaries:
"HURR NOLO 2026-09-25 00:00 UT 15.9N 155.6W 90 kts South of Hawaii
Hurricane Nolo (17E) continued in the area south of Hawaii with winds up to 90 kts. It is expected to intensify to a hurricane with winds up to 145 kts by September 28, 2026. At the same time it likely will turn north and track towards the island of Hawaii and then turn to the west. Hurricane warnings are in effect for Hawaii at this time. Seismicity and volcanism is likely to be enhanced while Nolo is in the region. The antipode is at 15S 24E in the Southern Africa where enhanced seismicity is also possible at this time." (September 27, 2026)
O: 01OCT2026 07:52:05 19.4N 155.3W ML=3.5 EMSC ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 5.2 in Hindu Kush, Afghanistan was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Hindu Kush, Afghanistan in Kunduz, Mazar-e Sharif, Kabul, and in Rawalpindi, Pakistan and in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TD 19E 2026-10-02 00:00 UT 14.8N 127.1W 35 kts Southeast of Hawaii
Tropical Depression 19E continued in the area southeast of Hawaii today with winds up to 35 kts. It will likely continue to the east and not to hit the island of Hawaii. The antipode is at 15S 43E in Southern Africa near Madagascar and the Mozambique Strait where some enhanced seismicity has occurred with previous storms at this location.
HURRICANE NOLO (15E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR NOLO 2026-10-02 00:00 UT 23.1N 168.1W 75 kts northwest of Hawaii
Hurricane Nolo (17E) continued in the area northwest of Hawaii with winds up to 75 kts. It will likely continue to the west and not to hit the island of Hawaii. The antipode is at 23S 13E in Southern Africa where no enhanced seismicity is considered likely.
HURRICANE RACHEL (DEPRESSION 18E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR RACHEL 2026-10-02 00:00 UT 19.2N 110.6W 115 kts South of Baja California, Mexico
Hurricane Rachel (Tropical Depression 18E) continued in the area south of Baja California, Mexico today winds up to 115 kts. It is expected to track towards the west and north and not to make landfall in Mexico. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean, an semi-active seismic area near 19S 70E.
TROPICAL STORM HANNA
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS HANNA 2026-10-02 00:00 UT 33.2N 43.3W 35 kts Northern Mid-Atlantic
TS Hanna continued in the area of the northern mid-Atlantic today with winds up to 35 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but some enhanced seismicity at this time is possible in the North Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The antipode is in in southeastern Austratlia near 33S 137E.
TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (26W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH CHOI-WAN 2026-10-02 00:00 UT 17.7N 144.6E 85 kts Mariana Islands
Typhoon Choi-Wan (26W) continued in the area of the Mariana Islands today with winds up to 85 kts. This system is currently moving towards the north and is likely to affect regional seismicity in the Mariana Islands at this time. The antipode at 18S 36W in the Atlantic is not a seismic area.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 1, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9960 2121 2137 2158 C1.4 (October 1, 2026) 2.5E-03
Eastern Turkey M 3.2 21:37 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: minor storms October 2 and 4, 2026 active October 3. Solar M-flare chance: 15% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 4, high: 1, mid-latitude: 3, time of max k: 22:00-24:00 UT; Max k: 2 Global Kp 2.00 2200-2400, October 1; Sunspot Number: 38; Radio Flux: 92 October 1, 2026.
The geomagnetic field was quiet today. The GFZ Hp30 index did not exceed 2.5 during
the past 24 hours. No geomagnetic storms occurred.
The GFZ Hp30 index reached its maximum value in the past 24 hours as 2.33 between 23:30 on September 29 and 00:00 UT on September 30.
No geomagnetic storms occurred in this time period.
October 1, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
The full moon arrived on September 26, 2026 at 16:49 UT. Longitudes which are sub-solar (local solar noon) are near 73 West while those at local solar midnight are near 107 East longitude. In the west these include areas of Central America, Colombia and the Caribbean and the west coast of South America while in the east these areas include western Indonesia, southeast and central Asia. These areas are most likely to see tidal triggering with this full moon.
A moderate solar flare of C8.6 class was observed and recorded by SWPC
starting at 02:30 UT on September 30, 2026. This flare ended about 04:45 UT.
It was followed by a series of earthquakes immediately in Halmahera (M 4.5)
and Sumatra (M 4.2) and at the end of the flare by larger earthquakes in
the Balleny Islands (M 5.4) and Taiwan (M 5.6) and at the peak output of this
flare, an M 3.8 in the area of the Simi Valley, Los Angeles, California. The earthquake in Taiwan
was the strongest earthquake recorded in the past 24 hours.
The C8.6 solar flare is the strongest observed since a C8.5 (#7450) on September 5, 2026.
The last solar flare of higher energy class than today's occurred on
August 26, 2026 (M1.0 #6000). Following are the data for today's flare
preliminary from SWPC.
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9920 0230 0246 0445 C8.6 (September 30, 2026) 1.0E-02 *
Halmahera M 4.5 02:31 UT
Northern Sumatra M 4.2 02:35 UT
Balleny Is. M 5.4 04:48 UT
Taiwan M 5.6 05:00 UT
Los Angeles, California M 3.8 03:00 UT
The earthquake in Los Angeles, California during the peak of this solar flare
is the most likely to have been of interest to readers of this summary. NEIC reported it was widely felt with intensity III in Southern California in Fullerton, Filmore, Somis, Santa Paula, Oxnard, Ojai, Palmdale, Santa Barbara, Thousand Oaks, amd II in Beverly Hills, Hacienda Heights, Oak Park, Woodland Hills, Ventura, Agoura Hills, Camarillo, Castaic, Frazier Park and others.
The last earthquake in the Simi Valley, Los Angeles area of California with
M>=3.8 occurred on July 12, 2026 about 50 km north of today's epicenter as an M 4.1.
At the time this summary remarked:
"A moderate earthquake followed the M 5.5 in the Southern East Pacific Rise
as an M 4.1 north of Los Angeles, California - also at 118.9 West longitude,
similar to the event in the East Pacific Rise. NEIC reported it was felt in Southern
California with III in Lebec and II in Bakersfield, Frazier Park, Fullerton, Maricopa, Canyon Country and Lancaster.
widely with intensity IV in Maricopa, Frazier Park, Lebec, Rosamond and III in Marina del Rey, Bodfish, Arvin, Agoura Hills, Los Angeles, Tujunga, West Hils, Los Angeles, Canoga Park, Thousand Oaks, Bakersfield, Lake Hughes, Newbury Park, Santa Clarita, Malibu, Pasadena, Porterville, Lancaster, Shafter among others in southern and Central California.
An aftershock of M 2.9 occurred later in the day near local solar noon. NEIC reported it was felt
This earthquake in California occurred at the intersection of the Garlock and San Andreas Faults and is
the first such event near this intersection near Frazier Park, California since an M 4.1 on March 12, 2106
and an M 4.2 on January 4, 2015. This is an area where some geophysicists think
a strong earthquake is likely in the short term. The last earthquake of significantly
larger magnitude within about 50 km of today's epicenter was an M 4.7 on September 22, 2005 - an aftershock of
the strongest regional event in the past 35 years - an M 5.1 on April 16, 2005.
Both the Garlock and the San Andreas faults are capable of earthquakes with
M>=7.5. An M 7.5 occurred in July 21, 1952 near Bakersfield, the largest
regional event in recent history but two major earthquakes hit the region
in 1812 with the activity in the New Madrid and Venezuela areas reported
in previous issues of this summary. While the length of the Garlock fault has been active in recent years,
the span of the the San Andreas to the north and south of the Garloc/San
Andreas has not shown much activity and may be locked. In that sense,
today's event may be a significant regional event indicating a change
in seismic pattern with increasing stress in this area. At the time of the M 4.1 on March 12, 2016 this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake in California today was an M 4.1 near Ojai, California.
NEIC reported maximum intensity V and noted it was felt with intensity II-III
in Santa Paula, Ojai, Fillmore, Oak View, Somis, Ventura, Moorpark, Camarillo
and other areas of Southwestern California. This was part of a series of events
which may have been tidally promoted. The initial events in the series - an M 3.3
and an M 2.3 occurred within about 30 minutes of local solar midnight, a prime
time for tidal triggering of seismicity. The event of M 4.1 is the strongest
to hit within about 50 km of this epicenter since an M 4.1 on May 8, 2009. The
last of larger magnitude in the region was an M 4.3 on July 24, 2004." (March 12, 2016)
This epicenter is at the seventh node (51.4 degrees) from recent major
earthquakes in Venezuela and was probably promoted by energy from those sources.
It is also at the fourth node (90 degrees) from the M 5.5 in the South East Pacific
Rise several hours earlier ..." (July 12, 2026)
This epicenter is at the third node (120 degrees) from the Flores Sea and at
the fourth node (90 degrees) from the Loyalty Islands and may have
been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 30SEP2026 03:00:27 34.4N 118.8W MW=3.7 EMSC GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALI
O: 30SEP2026 03:00:27 34.4N 118.8W MW=3.8 NEIC GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALI
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TD 19E 2026-10-01 00:00 UT 14.8N 127.1W 35 kts Southeast of Hawaii
Tropical Depression 19E continued in the area southeast of Hawaii today with winds up to 35 kts. It will likely continue to the east and not to hit the island of Hawaii. The antipode is at 15S 43E in Southern Africa near Madagascar and the Mozambique Strait where some enhanced seismicity has occurred with previous storms at this location.
HURRICANE NOLO (15E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR NOLO 2026-10-01 00:00 UT 21.1N 164.1W 50 kts South of Hawaii
Hurricane Nolo (17E) continued in the area west of Hawaii with winds up to 50 kts. It will likely continue to the west and not to hit the island of Hawaii. The antipode is at 21S 15E in Southern Africa where no enhanced seismicity is considered likely.
HURRICANE POLO (17E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR POLO 2026-10-01 00:00 UT 29.9N 109.5W 40 kts Baja California, Mexico
Hurricane Polo (17E) continued in the area of Arizona with winds up to 40 kts. It made landfall in the Baja and Gulf of California area on September 28, 2026. Two moderate earthquake occurred at the time and location of the landfall event in the Gulf of California. The antipode is at 30S 72E in the South Indian Ocean where enhanced seismicity is also possible at this time.
HURRICANE RACHEL (DEPRESSION 18E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR RACHEL 2026-10-01 00:00 UT 18.2N 107.0W 90 kts South of Colima, Mexico
Tropical Storm Rachel (Tropical Depression 18E) continued in the area south of Colima, Mexico today winds up to 90 kts. It is expected to track towards the west and not to make landfall in Mexico. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean, an semi-active seismic area near 18S 73E.
TYPHOON SURIGAE (25W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH SURIGAE 2026-10-01 00:00 UT 31.2N 138.3E 40 kts South of Honshu, Japan
Typhoon Surigae (25W) continued in the area South of the Honshu, Japan with winds up to 40 kts. It is expected to track northeast south of Honshu over the next two days. Regional seismic enhancement is possible, but unlikely, in the area of Honshu. The antipode at 31S 41W is not a seismic area.
TROPICAL STORM HANNA
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS HANNA 2026-10-01 00:00 UT 33.2N 43.3W 35 kts Northern Mid-Atlantic
TS Hanna continued in the area of the northern mid-Atlantic today with winds up to 35 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but some enhanced seismicity at this time is possible in the North Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The antipode is in in southeastern Austratlia near 33S 137E.
TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (26W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS CHOI-WAN 2026-10-01 00:00 UT 16.2N 150.0E 45 kts East of Mariana Islands
Tropical Storm Choi-Wan (26W) formed in the area East of the Mariana Islands today with winds up to 45 kts. This system is currently moving towards the north and is unlikely to affect regional seismicity at this time. The antipode at 16S 30W in the Atlantic is not a seismic area.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 30, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9920 0230 0246 0445 C8.6 (September 30, 2026) 1.0E-02 *
Halmahera M 4.5 02:31 UT
Northern Sumatra M 4.2 02:35 UT
Balleny Is. M 5.4 04:48 UT
Taiwan M 5.6 05:00 UT
Los Angeles, California M 3.8 03:06 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: quiet October 1 minor storms 2, 2026 active October 3. Solar M-flare chance: 15% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 3, high: 0, mid-latitude: 3, time of max k: 17:00-20:00 UT; Max k: 2 Global Kp 1.33 1000-1200, September 30; Sunspot Number: 29; Radio Flux: 93 September 30, 2026.
The geomagnetic field was quiet today. The GFZ Hp30 index did not exceed 2.5 during
the past 24 hours. No geomagnetic storms occurred.
The GFZ Hp30 index reached its maximum value in the past 24 hours as 2.33 between 23:30 on September 29 and 00:00 UT on September 30.
No geomagnetic storms occurred in this time period.
September 30, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
The full moon arrived on September 26, 2026 at 16:49 UT. Longitudes which are sub-solar (local solar noon) are near 73 West while those at local solar midnight are near 107 East longitude. In the west these include areas of Central America, Colombia and the Caribbean and the west coast of South America while in the east these areas include western Indonesia, southeast and central Asia. These areas are most likely to see tidal triggering with this full moon.
A moderate solar flare of C8.6 class was observed and recorded by SWPC
starting at 02:30 UT on September 30, 2026. This flare ended about 04:45 UT.
It was followed by a series of earthquakes immediately in Halmahera (M 4.5)
and Sumatra (M 4.2) and at the end of the flare by larger earthquakes in
the Balleny Islands (M 5.4) and Taiwan (M 5.6) and at the peak output of this
flare, an M 3.8 in the area of the Simi Valley, Los Angeles, California. The earthquake in Taiwan
was the strongest earthquake recorded in the past 24 hours.
The C8.6 solar flare is the strongest observed since a C8.5 (#7450) on September 5, 2026.
The last solar flare of higher energy class than today's occurred on
August 26, 2026 (M1.0 #6000). Following are the data for today's flare
preliminary from SWPC.
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9920 0230 0246 0445 C8.6 (September 30, 2026) 1.0E-02 *
Halmahera M 4.5 02:31 UT
Northern Sumatra M 4.2 02:35 UT
Balleny Is. M 5.4 04:48 UT
Taiwan M 5.6 05:00 UT
Los Angeles, California M 3.8 03:00 UT
The earthquake in Los Angeles, California during the peak of this solar flare
is the most likely to have been of interest to readers of this summary. NEIC reported it was widely felt with intensity III in Southern California in Fullerton, Filmore, Somis, Santa Paula, Oxnard, Ojai, Palmdale, Santa Barbara, Thousand Oaks, amd II in Beverly Hills, Hacienda Heights, Oak Park, Woodland Hills, Ventura, Agoura Hills, Camarillo, Castaic, Frazier Park and others.
The last earthquake in the Simi Valley, Los Angeles area of California with
M>=3.8 occurred on July 12, 2026 about 50 km north of today's epicenter as an M 4.1.
At the time this summary remarked:
"A moderate earthquake followed the M 5.5 in the Southern East Pacific Rise
as an M 4.1 north of Los Angeles, California - also at 118.9 West longitude,
similar to the event in the East Pacific Rise. NEIC reported it was felt in Southern
California with III in Lebec and II in Bakersfield, Frazier Park, Fullerton, Maricopa, Canyon Country and Lancaster.
widely with intensity IV in Maricopa, Frazier Park, Lebec, Rosamond and III in Marina del Rey, Bodfish, Arvin, Agoura Hills, Los Angeles, Tujunga, West Hils, Los Angeles, Canoga Park, Thousand Oaks, Bakersfield, Lake Hughes, Newbury Park, Santa Clarita, Malibu, Pasadena, Porterville, Lancaster, Shafter among others in southern and Central California.
An aftershock of M 2.9 occurred later in the day near local solar noon. NEIC reported it was felt
This earthquake in California occurred at the intersection of the Garlock and San Andreas Faults and is
the first such event near this intersection near Frazier Park, California since an M 4.1 on March 12, 2106
and an M 4.2 on January 4, 2015. This is an area where some geophysicists think
a strong earthquake is likely in the short term. The last earthquake of significantly
larger magnitude within about 50 km of today's epicenter was an M 4.7 on September 22, 2005 - an aftershock of
the strongest regional event in the past 35 years - an M 5.1 on April 16, 2005.
Both the Garlock and the San Andreas faults are capable of earthquakes with
M>=7.5. An M 7.5 occurred in July 21, 1952 near Bakersfield, the largest
regional event in recent history but two major earthquakes hit the region
in 1812 with the activity in the New Madrid and Venezuela areas reported
in previous issues of this summary. While the length of the Garlock fault has been active in recent years,
the span of the the San Andreas to the north and south of the Garloc/San
Andreas has not shown much activity and may be locked. In that sense,
today's event may be a significant regional event indicating a change
in seismic pattern with increasing stress in this area. At the time of the M 4.1 on March 12, 2016 this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake in California today was an M 4.1 near Ojai, California.
NEIC reported maximum intensity V and noted it was felt with intensity II-III
in Santa Paula, Ojai, Fillmore, Oak View, Somis, Ventura, Moorpark, Camarillo
and other areas of Southwestern California. This was part of a series of events
which may have been tidally promoted. The initial events in the series - an M 3.3
and an M 2.3 occurred within about 30 minutes of local solar midnight, a prime
time for tidal triggering of seismicity. The event of M 4.1 is the strongest
to hit within about 50 km of this epicenter since an M 4.1 on May 8, 2009. The
last of larger magnitude in the region was an M 4.3 on July 24, 2004." (March 12, 2016)
This epicenter is at the seventh node (51.4 degrees) from recent major
earthquakes in Venezuela and was probably promoted by energy from those sources.
It is also at the fourth node (90 degrees) from the M 5.5 in the South East Pacific
Rise several hours earlier ..." (July 12, 2026)
This epicenter is at the third node (120 degrees) from the Flores Sea and at
the fourth node (90 degrees) from the Loyalty Islands and may have
been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 30SEP2026 03:00:27 34.4N 118.8W MW=3.7 EMSC GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALI
O: 30SEP2026 03:00:27 34.4N 118.8W MW=3.8 NEIC GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALI
The earthquake in Los Angeles today (see above) joined several others. This
increase in seismic activity in the west coast of the U.S. and Canada had
been expected in this summary when nor'easter hit the northeastern U.S. over the
past three days and had been elaborated on in previous issues of this summary in part as:
"The area of California could see enhanced seismicity including the possibility
of a moderate earthquake in the next three days. A strong nor'easter is
currently bearing down on the Northeastern U.S. Such storms often occur
coincidentally with a strong earthquake in the western U.S. or Canada." (Septembere 26-27, 2026)
Other significantly enhanced earthquakes in the western U.S. today occurred
as an M 4.2 in the Seattle, Washington area and an M 4.8 off the coast of
Northern California. The earthquake of M 3.9 near Seattle occurred within
minutes of local solar noon and was probably promoted by tidal and/or geomagnetic
stresses. The last earthquake within about 100 km of this epicenter in Washington
State with M>3.9 was an M 4.0 on December 24, 2023. NEIC reported today's event was felt with intensity IV in Washington
at Dupont and III in Lakebay, Vashon, Anderson Island, Maple Valley, Seabeck, Langley, Tacoma, Seattle among others.
The last earthquake of greater magnitude in this area was an M 4.3 on October 9, 2023.
At the time this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.3 in Washington State. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II-III in Washington at Port Hadlock, Nordland, Freeland, Greenbank, Port Ludlow, Port Townsend, Hansville, Coupevile and Langley among others.
The last earthquake in Washington State within about 150 km of today's event
with M>=4.3 was an M 4.6 on July 12, 2019. The only other such event in the area since 1009
was an M 4.9 on December 30, 2015. .." (October 9, 2023)
This epicenter is located at the fourth node (90 degrees) from the Loyalty Islands
and at the sixth node from Tropical Storm Hanna and may have been promoted
by energy from those sources.
O: 29SEP2026 21:05:56 47.4N 122.7W ML=4.2 NEIC PUGET SOUND REGION, WASHINGTON
O: 29SEP2026 21:05:56 47.4N 122.7W ML=3.9 EMSC PUGET SOUND REGION, WASHINGTON
O: 30SEP2026 03:16:58 47.4N 122.7W ML=1.9 EMSC PUGET SOUND REGION, WASHINGTON
The earthquake of M 4.8 in the area off the coast of Northern California
today was the first of that magnitude or larger within about 200 km of that
epicenter since an M 5.1 on June 3, 2026. NEIC reported today's earthquake
was felt with intensity III in California at Whitethorn and Orinda and II in Rio Dell, Fort Bragg, South San Francisco, Eureka, Bayside, Ferndale and McKinleyville.
At the time of the M 5.1 on June 3, 2026 this summary noted:
"It has been a wild time in earthquake country today. This all started with
a strong M9.3 solar flare starting at about 00:42 UT. Two more strong solar
flares then followed - a similar M9.1 beginning at about 06:40 UT and an
X1.1 beginning at about 10:40 UT. These are the strongest solar flares since a X2.4 (#8000)
on April 24, 2026.
...
The strongest associated earthquake with the X-class flare was an M 5.7 off
the coast of northern California. The last earthquake of M>=5.7 within
about 200 km of this epicenter was an M 5.8 on September 9, 2025." (June 3, 2026)
O: 29SEP2026 11:36:38 40.4N 125.4W MW=4.8 EMSC OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
The last earthquake of M>=5.4 in the Balleny Islands was an M 5.6 on April 21, 2026
and may be an aftershock of that event. It was not reported felt in this remote epicentral area.
The M 5.2 aftershock occurred 17 minutes and 13 seconds after an M 5.0 in
the Loyalty Islands. As this is the travel time for a number of seismic phases
to traverse the 41 degrees between these two epicenter (including surface wave,
ScS and various reflected S-waves), it is likely that that event was
triggered by these seismic waves from the Loyalty Islands. In a similar manner,
the M 5.4 in the Balleny Islands was followed 12.6 minutes later by an M 5.6 in Taiwan.
This is the time it takes for the P-wave to travel from Balleny Islands to
Taiwan and was probably instrumental in triggering that subsequent earthquake.
The two earthquakes in the Balleny Islands (M 5.2 and M 5.4) are at 103 degrees
from Hurricane Rachel and at 144 degrees from Tropical Storm Hanna and Taiwan and may
have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 30SEP2026 04:48:05 63.2S 169.0E MW=5.4 EMSC BALLENY ISLANDS REGION
O: 30SEP2026 07:07:16 63.6S 171.5E Mw=5.2 EMSC BALLENY ISLANDS REGION
The M 5.6 in Taiwan was reported by NEID to have been felt in Taiwan with intensity
III in Taipei at Sanchung, Taipei and Yungho and in Taichung and Kaohsiung Counties.
This is the strongest earthquake in Taiwan within about 200 km of this epicenter
since an M 5.8 on May 1, 2026. At the time this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake of the day was an M 5.8-6.1 in Taiwan. NEIC reported this earthquake was felt in northern Tawan with V in Chungli, Taoyuan; IV in Ilan and Hualien and III in Taipei, Nantou and Taoyuan Counties.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Taiwan at Yilan, Taipei, Banqiao, Daxi, and Douliu.
CWB, the regional seismic network for Taiwan reported this event with M 6.1 and
that it was felt in Yilan, Hsinchu, Nantou and Hualien Counties with IV; III in Taipei, Taoyuan, Hsinchu, Miaoli, Taichung, Changhua, Taitung, and II in Keelung City, Yunlin, Chiayi, Tainan, Jaohsiung and Pingtung Counties, Taiwan.
The last earthquake in Taiwan within about 200 km of this epicenter of M>=6.1
occurred on December 27, 2025 with M 6.6. At the time this summary noted:
"A strong M 6.6-7.0 earthquake occurred today in Northern Taiwan. EMSC reported
very strong shaking in Taiwan in Yilan, Taipei, Banqiao, Taoyuan, Hualien City, Hsinchu, Zhubei, Taichung, Jiayi Shi, Ishigaki, Kaohsiung, and in China in Xiamen, Singbin, Guoxiang, and Aotoucun.
NEIC reported intensity V in Taipei at Yungho and Sanchung and in Taoyuan and IV in Taichung and Kaohsiung.
Initial reports from CWB (Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan) gave this earthquake M 7.0.
CWB reported it was felt with intensity IV in Taiwan at Taipei, Hualien, Keelung City, Taoyuan, Hsinchu, Taichung, Nantou, Miaoli, Changhua, Yunlin, Taitung, Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung, Pingtung, Lianjiang, Pengu and II in Kinmen County, Taiwan.
Initial reports did not report extensive damage but moderate damage would be
expected with this event. Loss of electricity, gas and water with minor damage to
buildings was reported in Yilan. Although high wave warning was issued for areas of Japan, no major
tsunami was expected nor observed. Some loss of property and a few injuries were
reported on the internet. High Rise building shook in Taipei, the capitol.
There were no immediate deaths or major injuries reported. The earthquake occurred near local solar midnight on
a weekend in the Christmas/New Year's season so many were out celebrating
and dining even at this late hour.
This earthquake follows an M 6.1 in Taiwan near the same epicenter which occurred
on December 24, 2025. At the time this summary noted:
"A strong M 6.0 occurred today in the region of southern Taiwan. NEIC reported it was
felt with intensity VI in Taiwan at Taitung; IV in Changhua, Kaohsiung, and III in Pingtung, Taipei, Kaohsiung and Yunlin, Taiwan.
CWB, the local network gave this earthquake M 6.1. That network reported intensity
up to V in Taitung with IV in Hualien, Kaohsiung, III in Nantou, Tainan, Chiayi, Changhua, Taichung, Miaoli, Yilan, Hsinchu, Taoyuan, Taipei, Pingtung, and Penghu Counties, Taiwan.
A foreshock of M 4.9 about 100 km north of the mainshock occurred about a day earlier
CWB reported this earthquake was felt with intensity III in Taiwan in Hualien, and II in Taitung, Taichung, Yunlin, Chiayi, Changhua Counties.
The last earthquake in Taiwan with M>=6.1 was recorded by NEIC as occurring
on August 15, 2024 with M 6.1 but the last of significantly larger magnitude
was an M 7.5 on April 2, 2024...." (May 1, 2026)
This epicenter was at 106 degrees from the landfall of Hurricane Polo when
it occurred and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 30SEP2026 05:00:26 23.9N 122.9E MW=5.6 EMSC TAIWAN REGION
O: 30SEP2026 02:35:53 4.9N 95.1E ML=4.2 EMSC NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
O: 30SEP2026 02:30:41 4.5N 125.9E MB=4.5 EMSC KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
The M 5.6 was followed by an M 4.1 in Greece 20 minutes and 32 seconds later.
This event in Greece was reported by EMSC to have been felt with intensity
III-IV in Greece at Thivai, Chalkida, Elefsina, Peristeri, Acharnes, Irakleio, Nikaia, Drapetsona, Nea Filadelfeia, Kipsell and Piraeus among others.
The S-wave from Taiwan arrived at this distance (83 degrees) about the time
the subsequent earthquake in Greece occurred and may have acted as a catalyst
for that event in Greece.
This epicenter in Greece is at 102 degrees from the Flores Sea and 145 degrees
from the Loyalty Islands and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 30SEP2026 05:20:58 38.3N 23.3E ML=4.1 EMSC GREECE
A strong excursion in the geomagnetic field strength at the GOES-18 satellite magnetometer
occurred about 13:20 UT on September 29, 2026. An arcjet maneuver corrected
the satellite position and normal operations continued after about 13:50 UT.
Earthquakes associated with this geomagnetic pulse occurred as an M 4.1 in
El Salvador, and M 4.1 in the Mindanao, Philippines and an M M 4.2 in Costa Rica.
A moderately strong M 5.5 occurred minutes before in the Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge.
These may have been promoted by this sudden change in geomagnetic field strength and could indicate areas where a stronger earthquake is likely in the near future.
O: 29SEP2026 13:52:24 9.4N 84.2W ML=4.2 EMSC COSTA RICA
O: 29SEP2026 13:22:01 12.2N 89.8W ML=4.1 EMSC OFF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR
O: 29SEP2026 13:40:54 8.3N 127.2E ML=4.1 EMSC PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.5 in the Southern
Mid-Atlantic Ridge. It was not reported felt in this remote area in the
South Atlantic geomagnetic anomaly area. The last event within about 200 km of this epicenter
in the South mid-Atlantic zone with M>=5.5 occurred as an M 5.8 on January 25, 2026. At the
time this summary noted in this regard:
"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.8 in the Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Iwas
not reported felt in this area of the South Atlantic geomagnetic anomaly. An M 5.0 preceded the mainshock.
This is the strongest earthquake within about 250 km of this epicenter since
an M 6.2 on June 25, 2025. At the time this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.2 in the Southern Mid-Atlantic area. It was not reported felt in this remote area.
This event may have been promoted by near-antipodal energies from Tropical Storm
Sepat - currently located near its antipode off eastern Honshu Japan.
...
It is also likely that the earthquake in the South Atlantic was promoted
by high tidal stresses with today's new moon as described in previous issues
of this summary:
...
This area of the South Atlantic Geomagnetic Anomaly does occasionally see
strong earthquakes. The last such occurred 10 years ago June 17, 2015 with
M 7.0 but others have occurred on February 16, 2005 (M 6.5); April 24, 1998 (M 6.3) and January 3, 1998 (M 6.2).
When the M 7.0 occurred 10 years ago, this summary noted:
"An earthquake of M 6.9-7.0 today in the South Atlantic Ocean was apparently triggered
by tidal stresses. The earthquake occurred within minutes of local solar noon,
a prime time for tidal stresses. The new moon yesterday also reached maximum
near this Atlantic longitude, further evidence that this event was timed by
tidal stresses. This was enhanced by the geomagnetic effects as the epicenter
is located about 15 degrees south of the local geomagnetic equator." (June 17, 2015)
and
"Today's earthquake of M 6.4 in the South Atlantic was the strongest
event in the region (30-40S 0-20W) in more than 50 years (a similar event
of M 6.4 hit near this epicenter on June 3, 1981). Earthquakes of similar
size were reported in the region on Aug. 2, 1939 and Sept. 20, 1946. No
earthquakes of M>6.5 have ever been located in the region. While this
event was of a magnitude that could generate a minor landslide tsunami,
tsunamis are seldom generated from mid-ocean ridge earthquakes and no tsunami
watch is being suggested. If a tsunami should occur it is unlikely to be
damaging on the west Africa and east South America coasts." (February 16, 2005, June 25, 2025)
Today's event in the South Atlantic was likely promoted by the major geomagnetic storm of the past several days
as it occurred near local solar midnight in the Southern Atlantic geomagnetic
anomaly region.
This epicenter is at 144 degrees from Taiwan and may have been promoted by
energy from that source." (January 26, 2026)
This earthquake occurred near the
start (and peak) of solar flare 9860 (C1.1). The earthquake occurred
within two minutes of local solar noon, an ideal time for geomagnetic and/or
tidal stresses to help promote seismicity.
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9860 1257 1311 1317 C1.1 (September 29, 2026) 9.4E-04
Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge M 5.5 13:06 UT
Myanmar M 3.0 13:06 UT
Like several other significant events in western U.S. and Canada today,
this epicenter is at the fourth node (90 degrees) from the Loyalty Islands
and near 105 degrees from the landfall of Hurricane Polo today and may
have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 29SEP2026 13:06:10 35.4S 16.2W MW=5.5 EMSC SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.8 in Mindoro, Philippines was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Mindoro, Philippines in Southern Tagalog at Santa Clara, Lobo and in Manila.
O: 30SEP2026 01:34:11 13.2N 120.7E MB=4.8 EMSC MINDORO, PHILIPPINES
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.5 in Colombia was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Colombia in Pereira, Cali, Itagui and Santa Rosa del Sur.
O: 29SEP2026 21:50:33 3.9N 75.7W MB=4.5 EMSC COLOMBIA
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TD 19E 2026-09-30 00:00 UT 14.8N 127.1W 35 kts Southeast of Hawaii
Tropical Depression 19E continued in the area southeast of Hawaii today with winds up to 35 kts. It will likely continue to the east and not to hit the island of Hawaii. The antipode is at 15S 43E in Southern Africa near Madagascar and the Mozambique Strait where some enhanced seismicity has occurred with previous storms at this location.
HURRICANE NOLO (15E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR NOLO 2026-09-30 00:00 UT 21.1N 164.1W 50 kts South of Hawaii
Hurricane Nolo (17E) continued in the area west of Hawaii with winds up to 50 kts. It will likely continue to the west and not to hit the island of Hawaii. The antipode is at 21S 15E in Southern Africa where no enhanced seismicity is considered likely.
HURRICANE POLO (17E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR POLO 2026-09-30 00:00 UT 29.9N 109.5W 40 kts Baja California, Mexico
Hurricane Polo (17E) continued in the area of Arizona with winds up to 40 kts. It made landfall in the Baja and Gulf of California area on September 28, 2026. Two moderate earthquake occurred at the time and location of the landfall event in the Gulf of California. The antipode is at 30S 72E in the South Indian Ocean where enhanced seismicity is also possible at this time.
HURRICANE RACHEL (DEPRESSION 18E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR RACHEL 2026-09-30 00:00 UT 18.2N 107.0W 90 kts South of Colima, Mexico
Tropical Storm Rachel (Tropical Depression 18E) continued in the area south of Colima, Mexico today winds up to 90 kts. It is expected to track towards the west and not to make landfall in Mexico. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean, an semi-active seismic area near 18S 73E.
TYPHOON SURIGAE (25W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH SURIGAE 2026-09-30 00:00 UT 31.2N 138.3E 40 kts South of Honshu, Japan
Typhoon Surigae (25W) continued in the area South of the Honshu, Japan with winds up to 40 kts. It is expected to track northeast south of Honshu over the next two days. Regional seismic enhancement is possible, but unlikely, in the area of Honshu. The antipode at 31S 41W is not a seismic area.
TROPICAL STORM HANNA
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS HANNA 2026-09-30 00:00 UT 33.2N 43.3W 35 kts Northern Mid-Atlantic
TS Hanna continued in the area of the northern mid-Atlantic today with winds up to 35 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but some enhanced seismicity at this time is possible in the North Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The antipode is in in southeastern Austratlia near 33S 137E.
TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (26W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS CHOI-WAN 2026-09-30 00:00 UT 16.2N 150.0E 45 kts East of Mariana Islands
Tropical Storm Choi-Wan (26W) formed in the area East of the Mariana Islands today with winds up to 45 kts. This system is currently moving towards the north and is unlikely to affect regional seismicity at this time. The antipode at 16S 30W in the Atlantic is not a seismic area.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 29, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9920 0230 0246 0445 C8.6 (September 30, 2026) 1.0E-02 *
Halmahera M 4.5 02:31 UT
Northern Sumatra M 4.2 02:35 UT
Balleny Is. M 5.4 04:48 UT
Taiwan M 5.6 05:00 UT
9860 1257 1311 1317 C1.1 (September 29, 2026) 9.4E-04
Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge M 5.5 13:06 UT
Myanmar M 3.0 13:06 UT
9900 2137 2146 2152 C1.5 (September 29, 2026) 1.0E-03
Oaxaca M 3.5 21:42 UT
Colombia M 4.5 21:50 UT
Northern California M 2.2 21:47 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: quiet September 30 and October 1 minor storms 2, 2026. Solar M-flare chance: 15% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 4, high: 2, mid-latitude: 3, time of max k: 10:00-12:00 UT; Max k: 2 Global Kp 2.00 0000-0300, September 29; Sunspot Number: 28; Radio Flux: 92 September 29, 2026.
The GFZ Hp30 index reached its maximum value in the past 24 hours as 2.33 between 23:30 on September 29 and 00:00 UT on September 30.
No geomagnetic storms occurred in this time period.
September 29, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
The full moon arrived on September 26, 2026 at 16:49 UT. Longitudes which are sub-solar (local solar noon) are near 73 West while those at local solar midnight are near 107 East longitude. In the west these include areas of Central America, Colombia and the Caribbean and the west coast of South America while in the east these areas include western Indonesia, southeast and central Asia. These areas are most likely to see tidal triggering with this full moon.
A moderately strong series of earthquakes occurred in the Vancouver Island
area of British Columbia, Canada today. This series began at 04:41 with the
commencement of a moderate geomagnetic disturbance (see above) with an M 5.4.
An M 5.2 aftershock occurred near local solar midnight. The last earthquake of M>=5.4
in the Vancouver Island area of British Columbia, Canada with magnitude significantly larger than M 5.4 within
about 150 km of today's epicenter was an M 6.5 on September 15, 2024 and prior to that an M 6.4
on July 11, 2024. Today's activity in Canada had been expected at this time as noted in the previous summary:
"The area of California could see enhanced seismicity including the possibility
of a moderate earthquake in the next three days. A strong nor'easter is
currently bearing down on the Northeastern U.S. Such storms often occur
coincidentally with a strong earthquake in the western U.S. or Canada." (Septembere 26-27, 2026)
These earthquakes may also have been promoted by the strong series or hurricanes
in the north Pacific at this time. The epicenter is at the eighth node (45 degrees)
from Hurricane Rachel, the fifth node (72 degrees) from Typhoon Surigae and
the tenth nocd (30 degrees) from Hurricane Polo and at 108 degrees from
Flores Sea and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 28SEP2026 09:13:39 50.2N 129.7W Mw=5.2 EMSC VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
O: 28SEP2026 09:03:08 50.3N 129.8W mb=4.5 EMSC VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
A more complete discussion of the relation of earthquakes in Vancouver with
nor'easter weather events in the northeastern U.S. was presented in this
summary on March 27, 2024 and was reproduced in the previous issue of this summary.
The last earthquake in the Vancouver Island area of M>=6 was an M 6.5 on July 4, 2019
with the regional seismic activation of early July, 2019. A swarm hit southeast
of today's events on October 22, 2018 (M 6.8, 6.5, 6.5) and in January, 2008 (M 6.4, 6.0 ..) and September 2013 (M 6.0, 6.0, 6.1)." (December 23, 2019, September 17, 2023, September 15, 2024)
These epicenters area at the fourth node (90 degrees) from the M 6.6 in the
Loyalty Islands and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
In at least one case a seismic wave from one to the other area (SSS and/or PkkP)
was coincident when the second event occurred 13 minutes and 23 seconds later.
The M 5.3 in the Loyalty Islands was the strongest aftershock of the day
in that area and the M 4.9 in Vancouver began the sequence in that region.
These two events follow:
O: 28SEP2026 02:53:44 50.2N 129.8W Mw=4.9 EMSC VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
O: 28SEP2026 03:25:06 21.1S 168.4E Mw=5.3 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 28SEP2026 03:43:45 57.7S 25.2W MB=5.1 EMSC SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
A second earthquake of M 5.3 occurred early on UT September 29, 2026 in the
Loyalty Islands. This event was reported to have been felt in Noumea, New Caledonia with intensity III.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in New Caledonia at Tadine and Noumea.
It was the only moderate earthquake the region today after several days
of enhanced aftershock activity. This event occurred near local solar noon
and may have been promoted by tidal stresses with the full moon.
This epicenter is at the fourth node (90 degrees) from the landfall position
of Hurricane Polo and at 145-149 degrees from Tropical Storms Fay and Hanna
and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 29SEP2026 03:23:54 21.0S 168.4E MW=5.3 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
The epicenter of the M 4.9 at this time in the South Sandwich Islands is
at 145 degrees from Typhoon Surigae and 108 degrees from Hurricane Polo
and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
Today's epicenters in the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico are at the seventh node (51 degrees) from Hurricane Odalys
and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 28SEP2026 07:35:09 18.2N 68.5W MD=3.4 EMSC MONA PASSAGE, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.0 in northern Kansas was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of northern Kansas in Hill City and Bogue.
This epicenter is at 104 degrees from the M 6.6 in the Loyalty Islands
and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 28SEP2026 22:54:45 39.3N 99.7W ML=3.0 EMSC KANSAS
O: 28SEP2026 22:50:25 39.3N 99.7W ML=2.5 EMSC KANSAS
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.9 in Honshu, Japan was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Honshu, Japan with IV in Chiba, Sairama and Tokyo and III in Ibaraki Prefectures.
EMSC reported minor rocking in Japan at Toda, Tokyo, Urayasu, Narita, Kawasaki among others. It may
have been promoted by energy from Typhoon Surigae which was passing to the
south of this epicenter in Honshu at the time of the earthquake's occurrence.
Some enhanced seismicity in the area had been expected in this summary in
previous issues such as:
"Typhoon Surigae (25W) continued in the area west of the Ryukyu Islands, Japan with winds up to 125 kts. It is expected to track northwest and to track east of the Ryukyu Islands as a typhoon over the next day. Regional seismic enhancement is possible, but unlikely, in the area of Taiwan, Ryukyu Islands and Honshu if this path is slightly more to the west than currently expected. The antipode at 27S 48W is not a seismic area." (September 27-28, 2026)
This epicenter is at 101 degrees from Hurricane Rachel and at the seventh
node (51 degrees) from Hurricane Nolo and at the fourth node
from the landfall of Hurricane Polo today and may have been promoted by constructive interference of energy from those
sources.
O: 28SEP2026 19:45:05 36.0N 139.9E MW=4.9 EMSC NEAR S. COAST OF HONSHU,
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.6 in Taiwan was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Taiwan in Hualien.
O: 28SEP2026 18:20:43 23.7N 121.9E MW=4.6 EMSC TAIWAN
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in Denali National Park, Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Denali National Park, Alaska in Talkeetna.
O: 28SEP2026 14:55:54 63.4N 151.6W ML=4.2 EMSC CENTRAL ALASKA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.4 in the Arctic north of Svalbard was the strongest earthquake
in the world today. It was not felt in this remote area.
This epicenter is at 104 degrees from Hurricane Rachel and at the fifth node
(72 degrees) from the Loyalty Islands and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 28SEP2026 13:22:40 82.6N 7.4W MW=5.4 EMSC NORTH OF SVALBARD
EMSC reported earthquakes of M 4.5 and M 4.6 in Colombia was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Colombia in Pereira, Cali, Ibague. Envigado, Cota.
O: 28SEP2026 08:39:59 3.7N 75.6W mb=4.5 EMSC COLOMBIA
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in Valparaiso, Chile was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Valparaiso, Chile in Vina del Mar, Quilpue, Llaillay, San Felipe, Lo Prado, San Bernardo, La Pintana, Talagante.
O: 29SEP2026 04:02:45 32.8S 71.3W ML=4.2 EMSC VALPARAISO, CHILE
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TD 19E 2026-09-29 00:00 UT 14.5N 132.1W 40 kts Southeast of Hawaii
Tropical Depression 17E formed in the area souteast of Hawaii today with winds up to 40 kts. It will likely continue to the west and not to hit the island of Hawaii. The antipode is at 15S 48E in Southern Africa near Madagascar and the Mozambique Strait where some enhanced seismicity has occurred with previous storms at this location.
HURRICANE NOLO (15E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR NOLO 2026-09-29 00:00 UT 20.1N 164.1W 125 kts South of Hawaii
Hurricane Nolo (17E) continued in the area west of Hawaii as a major hurricane with winds up to 125 kts. It will likely continue to the west and not to hit the island of Hawaii. The antipode is at 20S 15E in Southern Africa where no enhanced seismicity is considered likely.
HURRICANE POLO (17E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR POLO 2026-09-29 00:00 UT 26.9N 111.5W 80 kts Baja California, Mexico
Hurricane Polo (17E) continued in the area of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 90 kts. It made landfall in the Baja and Gulf of California area on September 28, 2026. A moderate earthquake occurred at the time and location of the landfall event in the Gulf of California. The antipode is at 27S 68E in the South Indian Ocean where enhanced seismicity is also possible at this time.
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL (DEPRESSION 18E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS RACHEL 2026-09-29 00:00 UT 15.2N 104.0W 70 kts South of Michoacan, Mexico
Tropical Storm Rachel (Tropical Depression 18E) continued in the area south of Michoacan, Mexico today winds up to 70 kts. It is expected to rapidly intensity becoming a hurricane in the next two days. It will probably track along the south coast of Mexico towards Baja California and the Gulf of California as a hurricane where landfall will occur. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but this storm could enhance seismicity in Baja and the Gulf of California, Mexico where a landfall at hurricane force could occur around September 30-October 2, 2026. Some enhanced seismicity in Baja and the Gulf of California could occur at that time. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean, an semi-active seismic area near 15S 76E.
TYPHOON SURIGAE (25W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH SURIGAE 2026-09-29 00:00 UT 29.2N 136.3E 55 kts South of Honshu, Japan
Typhoon Surigae (25W) continued in the area South of the Honshu, Japan with winds up to 55 kts. It is expected to track northeast south of Honshu over the next two days. Regional seismic enhancement is possible, but unlikely, in the area of Honshu. The antipode at 30S 42W is not a seismic area.
TROPICAL STORM HANNA
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS HANNA 2026-09-29 00:00 UT 34.2N 45.3W 40 kts Northern Mid-Atlantic
TS Hanna formed in the area of the northern mid-Atlantic today with winds up to 40 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but some enhanced seismicity at this time is possible in the North Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The antipode is in in southeastern Austratlia near 34S 135E.
TROPICAL STORM FAY (DEPRESSION 16E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS FAY 2026-09-29 00:00 UT 24.2N 47.3W 35 kts Northern Mid-Atlantic
TS FAY continued in the area of the central Atlantic today with winds up to 35 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but some enhanced seismicity at this time is possible in the North Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The antipode is in in southeastern Austratlia near 24S 133E.
A tropical cyclone may be forming east of Guam and the Mariana Islands. This system is currently at 15N 152E with winds up to 23 kts and moving towards the west. It could affect seismicity in the Mariana Islands region in the next two days as previous storms in the region have also done this year.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 28, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9790 1505 1519 1531 C2.5 (September 28, 2026) 2.5E-03
Banda Sea M 4.3 15:14 UT
Mindanao M 4.9 15:02 UT
9820 2108 2144 2158 C1.1 (September 28, 2026) 2.7E-03
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: quiet September 29-30 and October 1, 2026. Solar M-flare chance: 10% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 4, high: 2, mid-latitude: 3, time of max k: 10:00-12:00 UT; Max k: 2 Global Kp 1.67 0300-0600, September 28; Sunspot Number: 46; Radio Flux: 95 September 28, 2026.
The geomagnetic field was quiet today. The GFZ Hp30 index did not exceed 2.5 during
the past 24 hours. No geomagnetic storms occurred.
September 28, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
The full moon arrived on September 26, 2026 at 16:49 UT. Longitudes which are sub-solar (local solar noon) are near 73 West while those at local solar midnight are near 107 East longitude. In the west these include areas of Central America, Colombia and the Caribbean and the west coast of South America while in the east these areas include western Indonesia, southeast and central Asia. These areas are most likely to see tidal triggering with this full moon.
A moderate increase in the Hp30 index was reported today from GFZ as occurring
between 04:00 and 04:30 UT on September 28, 2026 when it reached 2.33. Otherwise this index
did not exceed 2.0 over the past 24 hours.
A moderately strong series of earthquakes occurred in the Vancouver Island
area of British Columbia, Canada today. This series began at 04:41 with the
commencement of a moderate geomagnetic disturbance (see above) with an M 5.4.
An M 5.2 aftershock occurred near local solar midnight. The last earthquake of M>=5.4
in the Vancouver Island area of British Columbia, Canada with magnitude significantly larger than M 5.4 within
about 150 km of today's epicenter was an M 6.5 on September 15, 2024 and prior to that an M 6.4
on July 11, 2024. Today's activity in Canada had been expected at this time as noted in the previous summary:
"The area of California could see enhanced seismicity including the possibility
of a moderate earthquake in the next three days. A strong nor'easter is
currently bearing down on the Northeastern U.S. Such storms often occur
coincidentally with a strong earthquake in the western U.S. or Canada." (Septembere 26-27, 2026)
These earthquakes may also have been promoted by the strong series or hurricanes
in the north Pacific at this time. The epicenter is at the eighth node (45 degrees)
from Hurricane Rachel, the fifth node (72 degrees) from Typhoon Surigae and
the tenth nocd (30 degrees) from Hurricane Polo and at 108 degrees from
Flores Sea and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 28SEP2026 04:41:23 50.1N 130.1W MW=5.4 EMSC VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGIO
O: 28SEP2026 02:53:44 50.2N 129.8W Mw=4.9 EMSC VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
O: 28SEP2026 09:13:39 50.2N 129.7W Mw=5.2 EMSC VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
O: 28SEP2026 09:03:08 50.3N 129.8W mb=4.5 EMSC VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
A more complete discussion of the relation of earthquakes in Vancouver with
nor'easter weather events in the northeastern U.S. was presented in this
summary on March 27, 2024 as:
"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.7 off the coast of
Oregon. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to III along the coast of Oregon,
especially in the Port Orford area. EMSC reported light shaking in Springfield, Oregon. A foreshock of M 3.0 hit the area within
minutes of local solar noon about 12 hours earlier and was felt in the Port Orford,
Oregon area. These earthquake occurred near local solar noon and
midnight and may have been promoted by tidal stresses with the full moon of
March 25 as noted in this and previous issues of this summary:
"The full moon arrived on March 25, 2024 at 07:00 UT. Longitudes near local solar noon are near 105W while those at solar midnight are near 75E. These include in the west portions of the South-east Pacific Rise, western Mexico and central North America; in the east areas of central Asia are included in this longitude zone. These are the areas most likely to see significant tidal triggering with this full moon. As these include limited areas of high seismicity the likelihood of a major earthquake within about 4 days of March 25 would normally be deemed moderate to low. But this full moon will coincide with a major geomagnetic storm and this may help promote a major earthquake at this time." (March 23-25, 2024)
Earthquakes in this area often accompany or follow shortly after strong nor'easter storms
in the northeastern U.S. Such a storm occurred over the past three days bringing
ice and power outages throughout the area. This summary has noted this correlation
on a number of previous occasions. For example on January 29, 2022 this summary noted:
"...This may have been promoted by movement of the North American plate associated
with the massive nor'easter off the east coast of North America today. This
system dumped a foot of snow on Boston, the most ever reported in that city
in a 24-hour period. This summary had expected this type of seismic response
to this storm in the previous issue as:
" ... a major nor'easter is beginning to progress up the eastern coast of the U.S. It may hit the Boston area
with record snows today and on Saturday, January 29, 2022. Such nor'easters
are often associated with a strong enhancement of seismicity along the western
North American tectonic plate. A precautionary seismic watch is being
called by this summary for this region through February 2, 2022." (January 27, 2022)
The last earthquakes with M>=5.7 off the coast of Oregon occurred on June 4, 2021 (M 5.9) and
December 8, 2021 (M 5.8). This event also followed a full moon and was likely
promoted by tidal stresses associated with that alignment as explained in
this summary at the time:
"A strong series of earthquakes occurred off the coast of Oregon today at 120-130 West longitude. These events were reported lightly felt on the coast of Oregon including at Waldport, Eugene and Beaverton.
The largest of these was M 5.8 which was felt with intensity II-III in Oregon in Depoe Bay, Newport, Florence, Waldport, Hammond, Tualatin, Medford, Cloverdale, Seaside, Sheridan, Forest Grove, Springfield, Portland and as far as southern Washington State.
Other moderately large events of M 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.8, 5.3 ... also were recorded in this series.
The last earthquakes of M>=5.8 in this area off the coast of Oregon occurred in August and September, 2019
with M 6.3 and 5.9 and as an M 6.2 on August 22, 2018 and an M 5.9 on August 22, 2018. The
M 6.3 on August 29, 2019 is the strongest event in this area in the past 30 years.
Today's activity appears to be occurring the the volcanic vents off the coast
of Oregon. It is likely that this series was promoted by high tidal stresses associated
with the new moon/eclipse of December 4." (December 8, 2021, March 27, 2024)
and on July 11, 2024, for another example:
"Today's earthquake of M 6.6 is the largest in the Vancouver Island area of Canada
since an M 6.6 on April 24, 2014. Other such quakes occurred in the past 30 years
with M6.5-6.6 on April 6, 1992; November 2, 2004 and January 5, 2008.
Forecast 120595 had expected today's event within about 100 km of the epicenter
most likely to occur around October 21.
The last such event in Vancouver in April 2014 was also associated with a storm not unlike
Hurricane Michael as noted at the time:
"a strong spring storm was racing up the Atlantic coast of the U.S. at the time
of this earthquake in Vancouver. This is a situation very much like that which
preceded the M 7.7 in the Queen Charlotte Islands in October, 2012 as Hurricane
Sandy did massive damage to the central east coast of the U.S. This summary
has documented this relation with strong storms and major earthquakes in
the British Columbia region on many previous occasions." (April 24, 2014, October 22, 2018, July 12, 2024)
"The strong swarm of earthquakes yesterday in the area of Vancouver Island, British Columbia ceased abruptly
today with only a minor earthquake recorded in the area. This swarm coincided with
landfall of Hurricane Lee in Maine and Nova Scotia, Canada. This storm has been
called a summer "nor'easter" because of its strength and characteristics.
This summary has taken a clear stance on the likely connection between nor'easters
and coincidental major activity in the northwestern U.S. and southwestern Canada
as typified by the summary of January 29, 2022:
" ... a major nor'easter is beginning to progress up the eastern coast of the U.S. It may hit the Boston area
with record snows today and on Saturday, January 29, 2022. Such nor'easters
are often associated with a strong enhancement of seismicity along the western
North American tectonic plate. A precautionary seismic watch is being
called by this summary for this region through February 2, 2022." (January 27, 2022)
and more recently:
"The strongest earthquakes in the U.S. or Canada today occurred as an M 4.3
near Vancouver Island and as an M 3.8 in the Queen Charlotte Islands area
of British Columbia. These were not reported felt. This may related to a nor'easter hitting the northeastern
U.S. at this time. Larger earthquakes in the Vancouver and Queen Charlotte
Island area of Canada often occur in conjunction with strong nor'easters
on the opposite side of the North American Plate." (March 14, 2023)
A stronger earthquake in the Vancouver or Queen Charlotte region is possible
with landfall of Hurricane Lee today in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.
Hurricane Lee has been described in this and previous issues of this summary as:
"Hurricane Lee continued today in the area of north of Nova Scotia with winds up to 50 kts (category 1 hurricane). It is expected to track to the north and east and may enhance seismicity in the Northeast U.S and Quebec, Canada as it makes landfall in that area around of Nova Scotia on September 17 in the next week. Interactions with the North American Plate may also trigger moderate to strong seismic enhancement in areas of coastal western Canada and northwestern U.S. at this time. Coastal flooding in Maine is considered marginal by NHC but more intense effects are possible along the coasts of eastern Canada." (September 16-17, 2023)
The last earthquake of M>=5.9 within about 100 km of today's epicenters
in Vancouver was an M 6.3 on December 25, 2019, part of a series of events in the area
that started with two of M 6.0 on December 23, 2019. At the time this summary noted:
"Other factors which probably affected the timing of the activity in Vancouver, Canada
probably included strong meteorological storms which dropped up to 12 inches
on areas of the southeast U.S. and in Washington State and British Columbia and the geomagnetic storm of December 19-20.
...
The last earthquake in the Vancouver Island area of M>=6 was an M 6.5 on July 4, 2019
with the regional seismic activation of early July, 2019. A swarm hit southeast
of today's events on October 22, 2018 (M 6.8, 6.5, 6.5) and in January, 2008 (M 6.4, 6.0 ..) and September 2013 (M 6.0, 6.0, 6.1)." (December 23, 2019, September 17, 2023, September 15, 2024)
These epicenters area at the fourth node (90 degrees) from the M 6.6 in the
Loyalty Islands and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
In at least one case a seismic wave from one to the other area (SSS and/or PkkP)
was coincident when the second event occurred 13 minutes and 23 seconds later.
The M 5.3 in the Loyalty Islands was the strongest aftershock of the day
in that area and the M 4.9 in Vancouver began the sequence in that region.
These two events follow:
O: 28SEP2026 02:53:44 50.2N 129.8W Mw=4.9 EMSC VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
O: 28SEP2026 03:25:06 21.1S 168.4E Mw=5.3 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 28SEP2026 03:43:45 57.7S 25.2W MB=5.1 EMSC SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
Likewise, the strongest earthquake in the South Sandwich Islands followed the
M 5.3 in the area of the Loyalty Islands (see above) by 18 minutes 38 seconds.
This is the time it takes for refracted and reflected seismic waves (PP)
to return to the surface (102 distance) following the first event. This is a
strong arrival and may have helped promote the earthquake in the South Sandwich Islands.
O: 28SEP2026 04:41:23 50.0N 130.1W MB=5.4 EMSC VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA
O: 28SEP2026 09:13:39 50.2N 129.7W MB=5.2 EMSC VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA
An earthquake of M 4.9 occurred within about 15 seconds of the M 5.4 in Vancouver
in the area of the South Sandwich Islands. It was not reported felt in this
remote area. These two events are at the fourth node (90 degrees) apart
from each other but seismic energy from the M 5.4 in Vancouver would not
have arrived in the South Sandwich Islands when that earthquake occurred.
A third moderate earthquake - an M 4.6 in the Kuril Islands was also
coincident at 04:42 UT with events in Vancouver and the South Sandwich
Islands. These may have been promoted by the commencement of the moderate
geomagnetic storm at this time (see above).
The epicenter of the M 4.6 in the Kuril Islands is at 103 degrees from
Tropical Storm Fay and at the fifth node (72degrees) from Hurricane Odalys
and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 28SEP2026 04:42:57 48.9N 151.6E MB=4.6 EMSC KURIL ISLANDS
The epicenter of the M 4.9 at this time in the South Sandwich Islands is
at 145 degrees from Typhoon Surigae and 108 degrees from Hurricane Polo
and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 28SEP2026 04:41:34 57.8S 25.4W mb=4.9 EMSC SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
O: 28SEP2026 03:43:45 57.7S 25.2W MB=5.1 EMSC SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
O: 27SEP2026 21:13:33 59.1S 25.9W MB=5.0 EMSC SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
Another earthquake associated temporally with those in Vancouver, South Sandwich
Islands etc. (see above) was an 4.2 in Eastern Kazakhstan three minutes
earlier and possibly promoted by the same geomagnetic storm commencement.
NEIC reported this earthquake was felt with intensity III in Almaty, Kazakhstan.
EMSC reported this earthquake was felt in Kyzyl-Suu, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan in Almaty, Chemolgan, Otegen Batyra, Burunday, and Talghar.
This epicenter is at the fourth node (90 degrees) from Tropical Storm Fay; 101 degrees from Hurricane Nolo
and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 28SEP2026 04:38:06 43.3N 76.8E MB=4.2 EMSC EASTERN KAZAKHSTAN
O: 28SEP2026 04:38:10 43.2N 77.0E MB=3.4 NEIC EASTERN KAZAKHSTAN
Several other light, but potentially important earthquakes also occurred
in California today with the nor'easter (see above). Earthquakes of M 3.5 in
the area south of Los Angeles; of M 3.5 in the northern Gulf of California; of M 4.1-4.4 in northern
Nevada and of M 3.2 in San Francisco were part of the enhanced seismicity
in the state today. The M 2.6 in Redwood Valley, California area was reported with intensity II-III
in California at Ukiah, Redwood Valley and Willits. The
O: 27SEP2026 19:10:36 39.3N 123.3W MD=2.6 EMSC NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 27SEP2026 23:02:56 39.6N 123.4W MD=2.2 EMSC NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
The M 3.5 south of Los Angeles in the Santa Monica Bay area was reported by NEIC
to have been felt with intensity IV in California at Los Angeles, Northridge and III
in Torrance, Beverly Hills, Hermosa Beach, Manhattan Beach, Playa del Rey, Redondo Beach and Venice, among others.
O: 27SEP2026 15:40:00 33.8N 118.5W ML=3.5 EMSC SANTA MONICA BAY, CALIFORNIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.1-4.4 in northern Nevada was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of northern Nevada with III in Ely and II in Lund and Pioche.
A series of aftershocks of M>=4 followed. The last earthquake in Nevada with
M>=4.4 within about 200 km of today's epicenter occurred on May 5, 2026 with
M 4.5 but today's earthquake is rare as it is the strongest within about 100
km of today's epicenter in at least 35 years (at M 4.4). At the time of
the May 5, 2026 event this summary noted in this regard:
"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.5 in the Tonopah area
of Nevada. This is not part of the recent moderate earthquakes in western
Nevada and not near the Testing grounds north of Las Vegas and is a new
epicenter for the Nevada during this active period. NEIC reported the mainshock
which was followed by a number of smaller aftershocks was felt in Nevada at Tonopah and possible in
Carson City and Henderson with II-III intensity. This epicenter was near
local solar noon when the geomagnetic storm commenced today and was likely
promoted by energy from that source (see above).
The last earthquake with M>=4.5 within about 100 km of this epicenter in Nevada
occurred on January 15, 1993 with M 4.5. The only comparable event since
then was an M 4.5 about 150 km north of today's epicenter on July 18, 2023. At the
time this summary noted:
"A moderate earthquake of M 4.4-4.6 also occurred today 6 in north-central Nevada. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Eureka and II-III in Austin, Tonopah, Wellington, Glenbrook, Colfax (California) and Henderson.
In the past 35 years earthquakes of M 4.5-4.6 have been located within about 100 km of today's epicenter
on September 10, 2019 and January 15, 1993. When the event of M 4.6 occurred on
September 10, 2019 this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada outside Alaska today was an M 4.6 in central Nevada. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity V in Austin, Nevada and II-III in Fallon, Elko, Carson City and Las Vegas, Nevada.
No major damage was reported. This is the first such earthquake within about 200 km
of this epicenter in at least 30 years. An M 4.7 hit about 250 km northeast of
this on November 23, 2003." (September 10, 2019)
Today's M 4.6 occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and may
have been promoted by tidal stresses which maximize near this hour." (July 19, 2023, May 5, 2026)
Today's mainshock also occurred several minutes before local solar midnight
but several other aftershocks were located near local solar midnight as well.
It is likely these were promoted by lunar tides associated with today's
full moon (see above) which maximize in strength near this hour.
O: 27SEP2026 07:01:40 38.9N 115.4W ML=4.4 EMSC NEVADA
O: 27SEP2026 07:12:58 38.9N 115.3W ML=3.0 EMSC NEVADA
O: 27SEP2026 07:18:53 38.9N 115.3W ML=3.4 EMSC NEVADA
The aftershock series in the Loyalty Island following the M 6.6 there two days
ago continued today. These events may be felt in New Caledonia.
O: 28SEP2026 03:15:52 21.0S 168.5E MB=5.1 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 28SEP2026 03:25:06 21.1S 168.4E Mw=5.3 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 28SEP2026 05:45:29 21.1S 168.4E mb=5.2 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 28SEP2026 05:28:09 21.2S 168.5E mb=5.1 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 28SEP2026 05:42:21 21.2S 168.4E mb=4.6 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 28SEP2026 00:47:33 21.4S 168.6E mb=4.8 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 27SEP2026 10:06:53 21.1S 168.6E mb=5.0 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.5 in Washington State was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Washington State in Woodland and Yacolt.
O: 28SEP2026 00:12:08 46.2N 121.5W ML=2.5 EMSC MOUNT ADAMS AREA, WASHINGTON
NEIC reported earthquakes of M 4.8 (along with aftershocks and foreshocks) in the Dominican Republic were felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Dominican Republic in Puerto Rico at Aguada, Mayaguez, Guaynabo, Isabela, San Sebastian, Corozal, San Juan, Barranquitas, Aguas Buenas, Utuado, Adjuntas, Anasco, Moca and in the Dominican Republic with IV in Samana, and III in Santo Domingo, Boca de Yuma, Puerto Plata, La Roman, El Carril, Los Llanos, Bajos de Haina San Cristobal, Polo Barahona, Otra Banda, San Juan, Salcedo, Santiago, among others.
A foreshock of M 4.2 was reported by NEIC to have been felt with intensity
II-III in Dominican Republic at Palmar Arriva, Cambita Garabitos, San Cristobal, Santo Domingo, La RomanaEl Carril, La Canela and Santiago.
At M 4.8 this is the strongest earthquake in the Dominican Republic within about
150 km of today's epicenter since an M 5.0 on June 26, 2026. At the time
this summary noted:
"NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in the Dominican Republic was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Dominican Republic with IV in Puerto Rico at Utuado, III in Anasco, Aguada, San Juan, Guaynabo, Arroyo, and Rincon.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in the Dominican Republic at La Romana, Punta Cana, Salvaleon de Higuey, Otra Banda, Hato Mayo del Rey, Boca Chica, Guerra, Santo Domingo, and in Puerto Rico in Mayaguez among others. It
was reported as far as 300 km from the epicenter.
This earthquake occurred within minutes of local solar noon at a latitude
which was near sub-solar at the time and may have been promoted by tidal
and/or geomagnetic stresses. The last earthquake in the Dominican Republic
within about 200 km of this epicenter with M>=5 occurred as an M 5.7 on August 5, 2025 and
one year ago on June 24, 2025 also with M 5.7. At the time this summary noted:
"An M 5.7 earthquake was widely felt in the areas of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico today. NEIC reported maximum intensity IV in Puerto Rico at Adjuntas, Aguada, Auadilla, Cabo Rojo, Utuado and III in Anasco, Arecibo, Camuy, Barceloneta and Castaner.
An M 4.5 aftershock occurred which was felt with loud rumbling in Dominican Republic at Otra Banda and Punta Cana and strongly in Ponce, Puerto Rico (EMSC data).
A foreshock of M 3.9 was felt with intensity IV in Otra Banda Dominican Republic and III in Puerto Rico at Ponce, Cayey, San Juan, Guaynabo, and Carolina.
This event occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by
tidal and/or geomagnetic stresses which maximize near this hour. The epicenter
is near sub-solar at this time of June. This has not been lost to this
audience in the past several days as it was reported:
"Because of its location near the Tropic of Capricorn, Mexico is no stranger to
major earthquakes near the summer solstice when the sun is directly overhead.
Such events occurred in 1897 (M 7.0); 1916 (M 7.1); 1928 (M 8.0) and 1982 (M 7.2)
among others. This relation had been noted in the previous issues of this report as:
"On the first day of summer in the northern hemisphere, the sun reaches its zenith at about 23 degree North latitude
due to the tilt of the earth's axis. Vertical tidal triggering is therefore
maximized near 23 North latitude at this time of year. Seismicity can be
seen to increase at this latitude as well as evidenced by today's India earthquake at 23 North
latitude ... (June 22, 2020, June 19, 2025, June 24, 2025, June 25, 2026)
Today's epicenters are at the seventh node (51 degrees) from Hurricane Odalys
and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 27SEP2026 19:09:17 17.9N 68.9W ML=3.1 EMSC DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION
O: 28SEP2026 07:35:09 18.2N 68.5W MD=3.4 EMSC MONA PASSAGE, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
O: 28SEP2026 01:05:10 18.4N 68.8W ML=3.2 EMSC DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
O: 27SEP2026 21:49:47 18.5N 69.1W Mw=4.8 EMSC DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
O: 27SEP2026 10:07:07 18.6N 69.7W mb=4.2 EMSC DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.4 in Central Chile was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern Chile.
O: 27SEP2026 18:55:43 43.1S 72.6W MB=4.4 EMSC LOS LAGOS, CHILE
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in North Island, New Zealand was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of North Island, New Zealand in Woodville Manawatu-Wanganui.
GeoNet gave the following data for this earthquake:
O: 27SEP2026 10:32:02 40.3S 175.9E ML=4.2 GEONET Felt with moderate intensity in the area of Southern North Island, New Zealand and northern South Island. 2976 reports of felt events were made of which 1326 reported weak and 1427 light intensity with 206 reports of moderate shaking and 14 with strong and 2 severe and 1 with extreme intensity came from the area.
O: 27SEP2026 10:32:01 40.3S 175.9E MB=4.2 EMSC NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.1 in Uzbekistan was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Uzbekistan in Tashkent.
O: 28SEP2026 04:03:04 40.8N 69.7E MB=4.1 EMSC EASTERN UZBEKISTAN
EMSC reported earthquakes of M 4.5 and M 4.6 in Colombia was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Colombia in Pereira, Cali, Ibague. Envigado, Cota.
O: 27SEP2026 21:57:52 4.5N 76.8W MB=4.6 EMSC COLOMBIA
O: 28SEP2026 08:39:59 3.7N 75.6W mb=4.5 EMSC COLOMBIA
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.5 in northwestern Kashmir was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of northwestern Kashmir in Barishal, Jamalabad, Pakistan.
O: 27SEP2026 15:00:54 36.7N 74.3E MB=4.5 EMSC NORTHWESTERN KASHMIR
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
HURRICANE ODALYS (DEPRESSION 16E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR ODALYS 2026-09-28 00:00 UT 22.8N 123.2W 50 kts West of Central America
Hurricane ODALYS (Tropical Depression 16E) continued in the area east of Central America in the North Pacific today as a hurricane with winds up to 50 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected and this storm is expected to dissipate in the North Pacific in the next two days. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean - an semi-active seismic area near 23S 57E.
HURRICANE NOLO (15E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR NOLO 2026-09-28 00:00 UT 16.7N 160.1W 165 kts South of Hawaii
Hurricane Nolo (17E) continued in the area south of Hawaii as a major hurricane with winds up to 165 kts. It will likely continue to the west and not to hit the island of Hawaii. The antipode is at 17S 20E in Southern Africa where no enhanced seismicity is considered likely.
HURRICANE POLO (17E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR POLO 2026-09-28 00:00 UT 23.1N 114.0W 130 kts West of Baja California, Mexico
Hurricane Polo (17E) continued in the area west of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 130 kts. It is expected to track northwest towards Baja California, Mexico making landfall in the Baja and Gulf of California area around September 28, 2026. Some enhanced seismicity in southwestern Mexico is possible from September 28-30. The antipode is at 23S 66E in the South Indian Ocean where enhanced seismicity is also possible at this time.
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL (DEPRESSION 18E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS RACHEL 2026-09-28 00:00 UT 13.2N 100.0W 50 kts South of Guerrero, Mexico
Tropical Storm Rachel (Tropical Depression 18E) continued in the area west of Central America and south of Guerrero, Mexico today winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to rapidly intensity becoming a hurricane in the next two days. It will probably track along the south coast of Mexico towards Baja California and the Gulf of California as a hurricane where landfall will occur. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but this storm could enhance seismicity in Baja and the Gulf of California, Mexico where a landfall at hurricane force could occur around September 30-October 2, 2026. Some enhanced seismicity in Baja and the Gulf of California could occur at that time. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean, an semi-active seismic area near 13S 80E.
TYPHOON SURIGAE (25W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH SURIGAE 2026-09-28 00:00 UT 27.5N 131.6E 125 kts East of Ryukyu Islands, Japan
Typhoon Surigae (25W) continued in the area west of the Ryukyu Islands, Japan with winds up to 125 kts. It is expected to track northwest and to track east of the Ryukyu Islands as a typhoon over the next day. Regional seismic enhancement is possible, but unlikely, in the area of Taiwan, Ryukyu Islands and Honshu if this path is slightly more to the west than currently expected. The antipode at 27S 48W is not a seismic area.
TROPICAL STORM FAY (DEPRESSION 16E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS FAY 2026-09-28 00:00 UT 27.9N 44.1W 35 kts Northern Mid-Atlantic
TS FAY continued in the area of the central Atlantic today with winds up to 35 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but some enhanced seismicity at this time is possible in the North Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The antipode is in in southeastern Austratlia near 28S 136E.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 27, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9610 0212 0222 0228 C1.1 (September 27, 2026) 9.0E-04
Loyalty Is. M 5.1 02:22 UT
9620 0243 0246 0248 C1.1 (September 27, 2026) 3.7E-04
Salta Argentina M 3.6 02:49 UT
9630 0431 0437 0444 C1.9 (September 27, 2026) 1.2E-03
Solomon Is. M 4.9 05:00 UT
9670 1554 1601 1607 C1.2 (September 27, 2026) 8.4E-04
Qinghai, China M 5.0 16:43 UT
9690 1858 1905 1909 C1.3 (September 27, 2026) 6.0E-04
Iceland M 4.5 19:22 UT
Antigua M 3.6 19:10 UT
Northern California M 2.6 19:10 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: quiet September 28-30. Solar M-flare chance: 10% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 9, high: 8, mid-latitude: 8, time of max k: 08:00-12:00 UT; Max k: 4 Global Kp 4.00 0000-0300, September 27; Sunspot Number: 124; Radio Flux: 112 September 26, 2026.
September 27, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
The full moon arrived on September 26, 2026 at 16:49 UT. Longitudes which are sub-solar (local solar noon) are near 73 West while those at local solar midnight are near 107 East longitude. In the west these include areas of Central America, Colombia and the Caribbean and the west coast of South America while in the east these areas include western Indonesia, southeast and central Asia. These areas are most likely to see tidal triggering with this full moon.
GFZ reported the maximum Hp30 index for the day was 5.0 at 00:00 to 0030 UT on
September 27, 2026 after which the geomagnetic disturbance calmed. GOES-18 and GOES-19
magnetometer show a chanbe in the geomagnetic field intensity starting
about 00:00 UT on September 27 which may be related to this increased
disturbance in the geomagnetic field intensity at satellite altitudes.
Moderate aftershocks in the Loyalty Islands of M 5.0 and M 5.1 followed
near local solar noon.
An unusual earthquake of M 4.2 in Libya also occurred at this time.
EMSC reported it was lightly felt in Libya at Misratah.
The last earthquake in Libya within about 250 km of this epicenter of M>=4.2
occurred north of this on June 3, 2026 with M 4.3 but the only such earthquakes
within about 150 km of today's epicenter in the past 35 years occurred on July 1, 1992 with M 4.3.
The strongest earthquake in the area in the past 35 years occurred as an M 4.7 on December 29, 2009.
This earthquake in Libya is at 108 degrees from Flores Sea and the current positon of Hurricane Polo
and at 105 degrees from the position of Polo two days ago and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 27SEP2026 03:27:20 31.3N 15.1E MB=4.2 EMSC LIBYA
An earthquake of M 6.6 on September 25, 2026 in the Loyalty Islands was followed by an energetic aftershock sequence.
The mainshock was reported by NEIC to have been felt in New Caledonia at Noumea and Dumbea.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in New Caledonia at We, Vao, Noumea, Bourail, Pouembout.
It was followed by an immediate aftershock sequence including a number of events of M>=5. The mainshock
is the strongest earthquake in the Loyalty Islands since an M 7.1 on December 7, 2023.
A major earthquake also hit the region of the Loyalty Islands on May 19, 2023
with M 7.7. At the time of the December, 2023 event this summary had noted:
The M 6.6 was preceded 21 minutes earlier by an M 5.0 in Sichuan, China.
A series of S- waves traverse the distance btween these two epicenters (about 70 degrees)
and take this travel time. It is possible they helped promote the larger
earthquake in the Loyalty Islands.
"A strong to major earthquake of M 6.9-7.3 occurred today in Southern Vanuatu within minutes of
local solar midnight. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to VII in Isangel, Vanuatu.
EMSC reported strong shaking in Port Vila, Shefa, and in Noumea, New Caledonia. This epicenter is located at a latitude which is exactly sub-solar at solar noon
on December 7.
...
The last earthquake within about 200 km of this event in Vanuatu was an M 7.5 in
the Loyalty Islands on December 5, 2018 - five years ago. At the time this
summary noted:
"The last earthquakes of M>=7.5 in the Loyalty Islands occurred 20 years ago on
January 4, 1998 with M 7.5. The only other such event in the past 30 years was an
M 7,7 on May 16, 1995. A foreshock of M 6.4 hit the area on October 16, 2018. The last
moderately large event in the region was an M 5.8 on November 27, 2018." (December 5, 2018)
and
"The last earthquake in the Loyalty Islands with M>=6.6 within about 250 km of
today's epicenters occurred on August 29, 2018 with M 7.1. Today's earthquakes
are probably aftershocks of that event. An M 7.0 also hit the region on November 19, 2017." (December 5, 2018, December 7, 2023)
This epicenter is at the fourth node (90 degrees) from Hurricane Polo and at the
seventh node (51.4 degrees) from Hurricane Nolo and may have been promoted by
energy from those sources.
O: 26SEP2026 08:54:03 21.0S 168.6E MB=4.7 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 26SEP2026 09:08:05 21.0S 168.6E mb=4.8 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 26SEP2026 07:08:02 21.1S 168.5E mb=5.1 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 26SEP2026 07:22:18 21.1S 168.4E Mw=5.0 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 26SEP2026 10:21:05 21.1S 168.5E Mw=4.9 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 26SEP2026 13:48:50 21.1S 168.5E Mw=4.8 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 26SEP2026 08:24:58 21.2S 168.6E mb=5.0 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 26SEP2026 09:07:19 21.2S 168.5E mb=4.7 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 26SEP2026 12:11:01 21.3S 168.5E mb=4.7 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 26SEP2026 12:14:48 21.3S 168.4E mb=5.2 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 26SEP2026 15:01:36 21.3S 168.6E Mw=5.1 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 27SEP2026 02:22:10 21.3S 168.7E mb=5.1 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 26SEP2026 18:25:23 21.4S 168.6E Mw=4.8 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 27SEP2026 01:18:25 21.4S 168.5E mb=5.0 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 26SEP2026 16:06:48 21.5S 168.6E MB=4.8 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 25SEP2026 21:23:04 21.3S 168.6E Mw=6.6 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
NEIC reported an unusual earthquake of M 3.5 in Austria was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Austria in Vols, Tirol.
EMSC reported it was felt and heard in Austria at Amras, Tirol, Rum, Arzl, Pradl, Pfons, Wilten, Thaur, Innsbruck, Hotting, Wattens, Staz, Vols, Gotzens, Axams, Zell am Ziller, Finsing.
O: 26SEP2026 07:56:55 47.2N 11.5E ML=3.5 EMSC AUSTRIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.1-4.4 in northern Nevada was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of northern Nevada with III in Ely and II in Lund and Pioche.
A series of aftershocks of M>=4 followed. The last earthquake in Nevada with
M>=4.4 within about 200 km of today's epicenter occurred on May 5, 2026 with
M 4.5 but today's earthquake is rare as it is the strongest within about 100
km of today's epicenter in at least 35 years (at M 4.4). At the time of
the May 5, 2026 event this summary noted in this regard:
"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.5 in the Tonopah area
of Nevada. This is not part of the recent moderate earthquakes in western
Nevada and not near the Testing grounds north of Las Vegas and is a new
epicenter for the Nevada during this active period. NEIC reported the mainshock
which was followed by a number of smaller aftershocks was felt in Nevada at Tonopah and possible in
Carson City and Henderson with II-III intensity. This epicenter was near
local solar noon when the geomagnetic storm commenced today and was likely
promoted by energy from that source (see above).
The last earthquake with M>=4.5 within about 100 km of this epicenter in Nevada
occurred on January 15, 1993 with M 4.5. The only comparable event since
then was an M 4.5 about 150 km north of today's epicenter on July 18, 2023. At the
time this summary noted:
"A moderate earthquake of M 4.4-4.6 also occurred today 6 in north-central Nevada. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Eureka and II-III in Austin, Tonopah, Wellington, Glenbrook, Colfax (California) and Henderson.
In the past 35 years earthquakes of M 4.5-4.6 have been located within about 100 km of today's epicenter
on September 10, 2019 and January 15, 1993. When the event of M 4.6 occurred on
September 10, 2019 this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada outside Alaska today was an M 4.6 in central Nevada. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity V in Austin, Nevada and II-III in Fallon, Elko, Carson City and Las Vegas, Nevada.
No major damage was reported. This is the first such earthquake within about 200 km
of this epicenter in at least 30 years. An M 4.7 hit about 250 km northeast of
this on November 23, 2003." (September 10, 2019)
Today's M 4.6 occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and may
have been promoted by tidal stresses which maximize near this hour." (July 19, 2023, May 5, 2026)
Today's mainshock also occurred several minutes before local solar midnight
but several other aftershocks were located near local solar midnight as well.
It is likely these were promoted by lunar tides associated with today's
full moon (see above) which maximize in strength near this hour.
O: 27SEP2026 07:01:40 38.9N 115.4W ML=4.4 EMSC NEVADA
O: 27SEP2026 07:12:58 38.9N 115.3W ML=3.0 EMSC NEVADA
O: 27SEP2026 07:18:53 38.9N 115.3W ML=3.4 EMSC NEVADA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.2 in the Gulf of Aden north of Yemen was not felt in this remote area.
This was within about 15 minutes of the completion of the full moon (see above)
and it may have been promoted by tidal stresses with that alignment. The last earthquake
of M>=5.2 within about 200 km of this epicenter occurred on August 27, 2026 and
was noted in this summary at the time as:
"The strongest earthquake of the day was an M 6.0 in the
Gulf of Aden. This is the strongest earthquake in the Gulf of Aden within
about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 6.6 on December 30, 2006. The only other
such event in the past 35 years was an M 6.1 on August 26, 2005. At the time
this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake of the day was located in the Gulf of Aden south
of Yemen in the Socotra Islands region. This is the strongest event located
in the region (10-20N 45-55E) in the past 35 years - since an M 6.6 which occurred
to the west of this on July 30, 1970. This is the only other event of M>=6.2
in this region in the past 50 years at least. The last event in the larger
region from 40-60 East longitue occurred as an M 6.7 on Oct. 1, 1996.
...
This earthquake occurred in the equatorial seismic zone on a mid-ocean ridge
area - a region where seismic activity was expected to be enhanced following the
strong geomagnetic storms two days ago. Strong events in this region including
those in Ethiopia often occur 4-4.5 days following major solar flares as geoForecaster
has previously documented in these summaries. In this case, a solar flare of M 5.6 was
preceded by a second M-class flare on August 22 between 4 and 4.5 days ago." (August 26, 2005, August 27, 2026)
This epicenter is at 144-146 degrees from Hurricanes Polo and Odalys and at the fifth
node (72 degrees - half 144 degrees) from Flores Sea and Typhoon Surigae and may have been
promoted by constructive energy interference from these sources.,
O: 26SEP2026 16:33:43 13.3N 51.5E MW=5.2 EMSC GULF OF ADEN
An earthquake of M 4.6 south of Africa was also located at 144-147 degrees from Hurricanes
Odalys and Nolo today. It is also at 103 degrees from Tropical Storm Fay
and may have been promoted by energy from those sources. The last earthquake
within about 200 km of this epicenter in the Indian Ocean south of Africa
with M>=4.6 occurred on September 20, 2026 as an M 5.7 and is probably an
aftershock of that event as noted in this summary at the time:
"NEIC reported a pair of nearly antipodal earthquakes of M 5.7 South of Africa and M 5.0 South of Alaska occurred
on September 20. These earthquakes occurred about 11 minutes apart, not enough
time for seismic waves to traverse the distance between them. But they
may have been triggered by a outside stress." (September 20, 2026)
O: 26SEP2026 17:50:20 48.6S 31.1E MB=4.6 EMSC SOUTH OF AFRICA
The strongest earthquake in the world today occurred in Papua New Guinea with M 5.6.
NEIC reported it was felt in New Ireland, PNG at Namatanai with intensity II.
This event occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and was probably
promoted by tidal stresses with the full moon today (see above). The last
earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter in New Britain with M>=5.6
occurred as an M 6.0 on September 16, 2025. At the time this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.0 in the region of New Ireland, Papua New Guinea. NEIC reported it was likely felt with intensity IV in the epicentral area.
This is the strongest earthquake in New Guinea within about 200 km of this epicenter
since an M 6.1 about 100 km north of this on April 12, 2025 which occurred
at the end of a strong geomagnetic storm. The event on April 12 appears to have
been an aftershock of an M 6.9 that occurred in the area on April 4, 2025. At the time
this summary noted:
"A major earthquake of M 6.9-7.0 hit the area of New Britain and New Guinea today.
Several moderate foreshocks have hit the region since the solar eclipse of
March 29, some of which appear to have been promoted by SFE associated
with solar flares and geomagnetic storms of the past several days." (April 4, 2025)
and
"A strong earthquake of M 6.2 (NEIC) to 6.3 (BGS) occurred in New Ireland, PNG today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III iNamatanai, New Ireland and Kokopo, New Britain, PNG.
This appears to be a regional aftershock of the M 6.9 in New Britain of April 4, 2025.
The last earthquake of M>=6.2 within about 200 km of this epicenter in New Ireland of equal or larger magnitude than
today's was an M 6.6 of November 15, 2024. This event also occurred with the
full moon of November 15, 2024 and had been noted at the time in
this summary as:
"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.6 in New Ireland, PNG. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity IV in East New Britain at Kokopo and III in Namatanai, New Ireland.
This event of M 6.6 is the strongest within about 200 km of this epicenter since
an M 7.5 on May 14, 2019. At the time this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 7.5-7.7 in the New Britain
region of Papua New Guinea. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity VII
in Rabaul, New Britain and VI in Kokopo; V in Namatanai, New Ireland; IV in Arawa, Solomon Islands and II-III in Kavleng, New Ireland and within about 500 km of the epicenter.
It was also reported felt with moderate to strong intensity in Port Vila, Lihir Island, Bougainville, Port Moresby with power blackouts in the
Kokopo area. PTWC issued a tsunami warning but this was later withdrawn. Villagers
near the epicenter on the west coast of New Ireland reported seeing the ocean
recede but no damaging waves were recorded. Damage did occur in New Britain but
immediate reports are unclear as to how great it was. This is the strongest
earthquake in the world during the year 2019 to date. An M 7.5 hit the region of Ecuador
on February 22, 2019, the largest previous during this year. This earthquake
was simultaneous with the strongest geomagnetic storm since August 26, 2018 when AP reached 76." (May 14, 2019, November 15, 2024, April 12, 2025)
This event occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted
by the strong geomagnetic storm which continued today as it lies on the
geomagnetic equator." (September 16, 2025)
Today's M 5.6 in New Britain also occurred near local solar midnight on the
geomagnetic equator and follows the strongest geomagnetic storm in the
past 40 days. It is likely it was also promoted by that storm.
O: 26SEP2026 14:08:13 4.7S 153.0E MW=5.6 EMSC NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
O: 26SEP2026 21:49:27 4.6S 152.9E mb=4.9 EMSC NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.0 in northern Hawaii was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Ookala with IV; III in Honokaa, Pepeekeo and II in Hakalau, Kahului, Ninole, Laupahoehoe and Honomu.
This event was probably promoted by stresses associated with Hurricane Nolo
which is passing south of Hawaii at this time.
O: 26SEP2026 11:58:50 19.9N 155.3W ML=3.0 EMSC ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.7 in the North Indian Ocean was not felt in this remote area.
This is an unusual epicenter for an event of M 4.7 and may represent
an outer-rise earthquake. Such earthquakes can occur when stresses on
the outer rise of subducting plates reach rupture point and often appear
to precede stronger events nearby on the subducting plate. The last earthquakei within
about 200 km of this epicenter with M>=4.7 occurred as an M 4.7 on May 7 2016.
The last event nearby in this area of significantly larger magnitude was
an M 5.8 on July 1, 2023. At the time this summary noted it as:
"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.8-6.0 in the South Indian Ocean. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III in Colombo at Kotte and Colombo.
This event is the strongest within about 300 km since an M 5.8 on June 1, 2014. The last event in the region within about 500 km of this epicenter
was an M 8.2 on April 11, 2012 and an M 7.0 on November 15 and 29, 1999.
When the M 5.8 occurred on June 1, 2014, this summary noted in this regard:
"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.6-5.8 in the North Indian
Ocean west of Sumatra. This is a remote area and this earthquake was not reported
felt in the region. It is the strongest within 200 km of this epicenter since
an earhquake of M 6.2 on April 15, 2012, an aftershock of strong earthquakes
that hit the area on April 11, 2012." (June 1, 2014, July 1, 2023)
This area also saw a significant series of moderate earthquakes starting
on April 11, 2012 with several of M 6.0.
Like earthquakes in the Gulf of Aden and South of Africa (see above) this
epicenter is near 144 degrees from Hurricanes Polo and Odalys and
may have been promoted by constructive interference of energy from those sources.
O: 26SEP2026 10:53:14 1.8N 89.5E MB=4.7 EMSC NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
EMSC reported earthquakes of M 4.6 and M 4.4 in Colombia was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Colombia in Caicedonia, Pereira, Dosquebradas, Cali, Neiva, Barrio San Luis, Itagui.
O: 25SEP2026 07:19:43 3.8N 75.7W MB=4.4 EMSC COLOMBIA
O: 26SEP2026 06:38:19 4.0N 75.8W mb=4.6 EMSC COLOMBIA
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 3.9 in Southeastern Australia was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Southeastern Australia in Bemboka and the Bega Valley and Victoria.
This epicenter is at 102 degrees from Hurricane Odalys and may have been
promoted by energy from that source.
O: 26SEP2026 11:19:31 37.2S 147.9E ML=3.9 EMSC NEAR S.E. COAST OF AUSTRALIA
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
HURRICANE ODALYS (DEPRESSION 16E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR ODALYS 2026-09-27 00:00 UT 20.8N 123.6W 90 kts West of Central America
Hurricane ODALYS (Tropical Depression 16E) continued in the area east of Central America in the North Pacific today as a hurricane with winds up to 90 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but this storm is expected to reverse direction today and move back towards Baja California, Mexico where a landfall at hurricane force could occur around September 28-29, 2026. Some enhanced seismicity in Baja and the Gulf of California could occur at that time. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean near the Madagascar area, an semi-active seismic area near 20S 57E.
HURRICANE NOLO (15E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR NOLO 2026-09-27 00:00 UT 16.7N 156.1W 100 kts South of Hawaii
Hurricane Nolo (17E) continued in the area south of Hawaii with winds up to 100 kts. It is expected to intensify to a hurricane with winds up to 145 kts by September 28, 2026. At the same time it likely will turn north and track towards the island of Hawaii and then turn to the west. Hurricane warnings are in effect for Hawaii at this time. Seismicity and volcanism is likely to be enhanced while Nolo is in the region. The antipode is at 17S 25E in Southern Africa where enhanced seismicity is also possible at this time.
HURRICANE POLO (17E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR POLO 2026-09-27 00:00 UT 19.1N 113.0W 135 kts West of Baja California, Mexico
Hurricane Polo (17E) continued in the area west of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 135 kts ( having reached Category 6 huricane earlier in the day). It is expected to track northwest towards Baja California, Mexico making landfall in the Baja and Gulf of California area around September 27-28, 2026. Some enhanced seismicity in southwestern Mexico is possible from September 27-29. The antipode is at 19S 68E in the South Indian Ocean where enhanced seismicity is also possible at this time.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TD 18E 2026-09-27 00:00 UT 12.2N 99.1W 35 kts South of Guerrero, Mexico
Tropical Depression 18E Formed in the area west of Central America and south of Guerrero, Mexico today winds up to 35 kts. It is expected to rapidly intensity becoming a hurricane in the next two days. It will probably track along the south coast of Mexico towards Baja California and the Gulf of California as a hurricane where landfall will occur. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but this storm could enhance seismicity in Baja and the Gulf of California, Mexico where a landfall at hurricane force could occur around September 30-October 2, 2026. Some enhanced seismicity in Baja and the Gulf of California could occur at that time. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean, an semi-active seismic area near 12S 81E.
A new tropical cyclone may be forming south of Guerrero, Mexico. This system is located near 12N 99W and is not expected to impact regional seismicity at this time. The antipode at 12S 81E is not expected to see enhanced seismicity at this time.
TYPHOON SURIGAE (25W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH SURIGAE 2026-09-27 00:00 UT 25.4N 128.3E 140 kts East of Taiwan/Philippines
Typhoon Surigae (25W) continued in the area west of the Ryukyu Islands, Japan with winds up to 140 kts. It is expected to track northwest and to track east of the Ryukyu Islands reaching typhoon strength with winds up to 130 kts around September 27-28. Regional seismic enhancement is possible, but unlikely, in the area of Taiwan, Ryukyu Islands and Honshu if this path is slightly more to the west than currently expected. The antipode at 25S 52W is not a seismic area.
TROPICAL STORM FAY (DEPRESSION 16E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS FAY 2026-09-27 00:00 UT 29.2N 43.9W 35 kts Northern Mid-Atlantic
TS FAY continued in the area of the central Atlantic today with winds up to 35 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but some enhanced seismicity at this time is possible in the North Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The antipode is in in southeastern Austratlia near 30S 137E.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 26, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9540 0911 0918 0925 C1.0 (September 26, 2026) 6.7E-04
Loyalty Is. M 4.8 09:11 UT M 4.8 09:08, M 4.7 09:07 UT
Papua M 3.9 09:23 UT
9560 1318 1323 1331 C1.5 (September 26, 2026) 1.1E-03
Banda Sea M 4.6 13:38 UT
Loyalty Is. M 4.8 13:48 UT
9580 1650 1655 1700 C3.1 (September 26, 2026) 1.3E-03
Rat Is. M 4.4 17:02 UT
India M 3.6 17:03 UT
9660 2104 2109 2113 C1.4 (September 26, 2026) 7.1E-04
Mindanao M 4.1 21:18 UT
Fox Is. M 4.4 21:31 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: unsettled September 27 quiet September 28-29. Solar M-flare chance: 10% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 13, high: 14, mid-latitude: 11, time of max k: 08:00-12:00 UT; Max k: 4 Global Kp 4.00 0300-0600, September 26; Sunspot Number: 88; Radio Flux: 102 September 26, 2026.
GFZ reported the maximum Hp30 index for the day was 5.0 at 00:00 to 0030 UT on
September 27, 2026 after which the geomagnetic disturbance calmed. GOES-18 and GOES-19
magnetometer show a change in the geomagnetic field intensity starting
about 00:00 UT on September 27 which may be related to this increased
disturbance in the geomagnetic field intensity at satellite altitudes.
Moderate aftershocks in the Loyalty Islands of M 5.0 and M 5.1 followed
near local solar noon.
September 26, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
The full moon will arrive on September 26, 2026 at 16:49 UT. Longitudes which are sub-solar (local solar noon) are near 73 West while those at local solar midnight are near 107 East longitude. In the west these include areas of Central America, Colombia and the Caribbean and the west coast of South America while in the east these areas include western Indonesia, southeast and central Asia. These areas are most likely to see tidal triggering with this full moon.
The GFZ Hp30 index reached Hp30 at 21:00-21:30 on September 25, 2026. This continued
a moderate geomagnetic storm which began on September 24 and reached high latitude
Kp levels of 6 mid-UT day. An earthquake of M 6.6 in the Loyalty Islands
accompanied the maximum Hp30 disturbance level at 21:00 UT.
The GOES-19 magnetometer shows a moderate increase in geomagnetic field strength
at 21:20-21:25 UT, probably related to It is
likely it was promoted by the geomagnetic disturbance at that time.
The earthquake of M 6.6 in the Loyalty Islands was followed by an energetic
The mainshock was reported by NEIC to have been felt in New Caledonia at Noumea and Dumbea.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in New Caledonia at We, Vao, Noumea, Bourail, Pouembout.
It was followed by an immediate aftershock sequence including a number of events of M>=5. The mainshock
is the strongest earthquake in the Loyalty Islands since an M 7.1 on December 7, 2023.
A major earthquake also hit the region of the Loyalty Islands on May 19, 2023
with M 7.7. At the time of the December, 2023 event this summary had noted:
The M 6.6 was preceded 21 minutes earlier by an M 5.0 in Sichuan, China.
A series of S- waves traverse the distance btween these two epicenters (about 70 degrees)
and take this travel time. It is possible they helped promote the larger
earthquake in the Loyalty Islands.
"A strong to major earthquake of M 6.9-7.3 occurred today in Southern Vanuatu within minutes of
local solar midnight. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to VII in Isangel, Vanuatu.
EMSC reported strong shaking in Port Vila, Shefa, and in Noumea, New Caledonia. This epicenter is located at a latitude which is exactly sub-solar at solar noon
on December 7.
...
The last earthquake within about 200 km of this event in Vanuatu was an M 7.5 in
the Loyalty Islands on December 5, 2018 - five years ago. At the time this
summary noted:
"The last earthquakes of M>=7.5 in the Loyalty Islands occurred 20 years ago on
January 4, 1998 with M 7.5. The only other such event in the past 30 years was an
M 7,7 on May 16, 1995. A foreshock of M 6.4 hit the area on October 16, 2018. The last
moderately large event in the region was an M 5.8 on November 27, 2018." (December 5, 2018)
and
"The last earthquake in the Loyalty Islands with M>=6.6 within about 250 km of
today's epicenters occurred on August 29, 2018 with M 7.1. Today's earthquakes
are probably aftershocks of that event. An M 7.0 also hit the region on November 19, 2017." (December 5, 2018, December 7, 2023)
This epicenter is at the fourth node (90 degrees) from Hurricane Polo and at the
seventh node (51.4 degrees) from Hurricane Nolo and may have been promoted by
energy from those sources.
O: 25SEP2026 21:23:03 21.2S 168.6E ML=6.6 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS ANA
O: 25SEP2026 23:32:44 21.2S 168.5E MB=4.9 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 25SEP2026 23:39:45 21.2S 168.5E Mw=5.5 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 25SEP2026 23:52:35 21.2S 168.4E mb=5.4 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 26SEP2026 01:10:19 21.2S 168.4E mb=5.3 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 26SEP2026 05:50:48 21.2S 168.4E mb=5.1 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 26SEP2026 07:08:02 21.2S 168.4E mb=5.1 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 26SEP2026 07:22:12 21.2S 168.6E Mw=5.0 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
O: 25SEP2026 21:23:04 21.3S 168.6E Mw=6.6 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS
A moderate geomagnetic storm began about 09:00 UT on September 24, 2026. GFZ reported Hp30 index rose to 5 at 09:30-10:00 UT and continued from Hp30 near 4 from 09:00 UT to 16:30 UT.
The commencement of this storm was also recorded on the GOES-18 magnetometer at local solar midnight (137 West longitude)
as beginning about 08:50 UT on September 24 as a sudden increase in the geomagnetic field strength
from about 25 nT to about 80 nT within a few minutes of this time. A C-class solar
flare was also recorded at this time. SWPC reported High latitude Kp reached 7 at the start
of this geomagnetic storm while the planetary K-index reached 4.33. This is the first
occurrence of a K-index of 7 or greader in the past month. The last such occurrence
was on August 18, 2026 when high latitude K-index reached 7 briefly mid-day.
A second geomagnetic storm arrived on September 25 beginning around 06:00 and peaking around 09:00 UT.
Kp30 index for this reached 4.33 throughout most of September 25.
The longitude at local solar noon at the time of both of these storms commencements was
44-45 degrees east. This is the longitude where the effects of such a storm
are most likely felt in the seismic (and other) arenas. An earthquake of M 4.5 did occur
in the Mozambique Channel at 44 degrees East longitude during the commencement
of the storm. This was followed on September 25, 2026 by an M 4.8 in Madagascar
This event also occurred within minutes of local solar noon and was probably
promoted by the geomagnetic storm.
These are unusually large earthquakes (at comparatively deep hypocenter) for the
region. The nearest earthquakes to the Mozambique event of M>=4.4 in the past 35 years occurred about 200
km from this epicenter on February 8, 2026 and March 9, 2025 and November 27, 2016
with M 4.6-4.7 each. At the time of the February, 2026 event this summary noted:
"A pair of earthquakes also occurred in the area of the Strait of Mozambique
west of Madagascar today with M 4.7 and 4.6. This area (see above) had been
the site of the strong tropical cyclone Fytia at the beginning of the week.
Stresses from this storm may have helped promote today's seismicity. A
second storm (TC Gezani) is approaching the area from the east at this time and may
continue the current swarm." (February 8, 2026)
With this in mind it should be noted that this epicenter in Mozambique is near
the antipode of Hurricane Odalys in the North Pacific and had been considered
in this and previous issues of this summary to be the site of a possible
antipodal earthquake at this time as:
"Hurricane ODALYS (Tropical Depression 16E) continued in the area east of Central America in the North Pacific today with winds up to 100 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but this storm is expected to reverse direction today and move back towards Baja California, Mexico where a landfall at hurricane force could occur around September 28-29, 2026. Some enhanced seismicity in Baja and the Gulf of California could occur at that time. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean near the Mozambique area, an semi-active seismic area at 16S 48E." (September 23-24, 2026)
Several strong hurricanes have passed over the antipode to this event in
the Mozambique Channel in the past month and may have helped promote today's
earthquake. These include Hurricane Lowell at the end of August and early September, 2026;
as well as Hernan and Lala earlier in August, 2026 as noted in previous issues
of this summary for example:
"TS Lowell formed today Southeast of Hawaii in the North Pacific with winds up to 50 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate seismic hazard to the region. It will approach Hawaii around September 3-4 and could enhance volcanism and seismicity in Hawaii at that time. This storm is antipodal to the East African Rift and Madagascar at 12S 47E" (August 27-28, 2026)
This epicenter is also at 120 (node 3) degrees from Colombia and may have been promoted by
energy from that source.
O: 24SEP2026 10:21:30 15.1S 44.2E ML=4.2 EMSC MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
An M 4.8 in Madagascar within minutes of local solar noon with the geomagnetic
storm of September 25 was the strongest earthquake in Madagascar within about
200 km of this epicenter in the past 35 years. Regional earthquakes hit the area with M 5.1 last on
September 18, 2011 and September 17 and 24, 2006. The clustering of these
events in mid-September is probably not coincidental as tropical cyclones
at the antipode west of Mexico are common at this time and can help
promote antipodal seismicity in Madagascar and Mozambique. At the time of the M 5.7 on September 24, 2006 (exactly 20 years ago today)
this summary noted:
"O: 24SEP2006 22:56:22 17.7S 41.8E MB=5.7 NEIS MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
The last earthquake of similar or greater magnitude listed by NEIC in the region of MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL within 210 km of this epicenter in the region bounded by (15.8-19.6S 39.8- 43.8E) since an earthquake of magnitude M 5.7 hit on 09/24/2006 at 17.71S 41.76E in the region of the MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. In the past five years NEIC has reported 0 days on which earthquakes in this region at this magnitude or of larger magnitude for an average interevent time of 2e+308 months. These have occurred per year as follows with yearly interevent time:
2002: 0 (IT:unknown months); 2003: 0 (IT:unknown months); 2004: 0 (IT:unknown months);
2005: 1 (IT:12.0 months)" (September 24, 2006)
The earthquake in Madagascar is at 146 degrees from Hurricane Polo and near the antipode
of a greatly strengthened Hurricane Odalys and may have been promoted by
energy from that source as noted in this summary:
"Hurricane ODALYS (Tropical Depression 16E) continued in the area east of Central America in the North Pacific today as a major hurricane (Category 5) with winds up to 140 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but this storm is expected to reverse direction today and move back towards Baja California, Mexico where a landfall at hurricane force could occur around September 28-29, 2026. Some enhanced seismicity in Baja and the Gulf of California could occur at that time. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean near the Madagascar area, an semi-active seismic area near 17S 50E." (September 25, 2026)
O: 25SEP2026 09:24:39 17.1S 43.5E ML=4.8 EMSC MADAGASCAR
NEIC reported an unusual earthquake of M 3.5 in Austria was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Austria in Vols, Tirol.
EMSC reported it was felt and heard in Austria at Amras, Tirol, Rum, Arzl, Pradl, Pfons, Wilten, Thaur, Innsbruck, Hotting, Wattens, Staz, Vols, Gotzens, Axams, Zell am Ziller, Finsing.
O: 26SEP2026 07:56:55 47.2N 11.5E ML=3.5 EMSC AUSTRIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.5 in Northern California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Northern California with IV in California at Philo, Boonville, Manchester; III in Comptche, Point Arena, Elk, Gualala, Albion, The Sea Ranch, Ukiah.
An aftershock of M 2.7 was reported with intensity IV in California at Boonville; III in Point Arena and II in Philo.
The area of California could see enhanced seismicity including the possibility
of a moderate earthquake in the next three days. A strong nor'easter is
currently bearing down on the Northeastern U.S. Such storms often occur
coincidentally with a strong earthquake in the western U.S. or Canada.
This epicenter is at the fourth node (90 degrees) from Typhoon Surigae and may have been
promoted by energy from that source.
O: 26SEP2026 03:42:49 39.0N 123.5W MW=3.5 EMSC NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 26SEP2026 04:02:07 39.0N 123.5W MD=2.7 EMSC NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
NEIC reported an unusual earthquake of M 4.5 in northern Iceland was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of northern Icelandnorthern Iceland.
This earthquake occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted
by the full moon tides which arrived today (see above), This is the strongest
earthquake in this segment of the northern mid-Atlantic since an M 4.9 on September 13, 2023 and an M 5.3 on May 16, 2023.
This epicenter is at the seventh node (52 degrees) from Tropical Storm Gonzales
and at the fourth node (90 degrees) from Hurricane Nolo and may have been
promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 26SEP2026 02:52:55 68.9N 17.0W MB=4.5 EMSC ICELAND REGION
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.7 in the TexasLouisiana border was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Louisiana border in Martaville, Louisiana and Royse City, Texas.
O: 25SEP2026 20:26:11 31.9N 93.4W ML=2.7 EMSC LOUISIANA-TEXAS BORDER REGION
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.2 in Hawaii was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Hawaii in Captain Cook and Kealakekua.
O: 25SEP2026 17:54:48 19.4N 155.9W ML=3.2 EMSC ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.2 in Santiago, Chile was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Santiago, Chile in Milipilla, Santiago and Vina del Mar.
EMSC reported it was felt with moderate intensity in Chile at San Antonio, Santa Cruz, Valparaiso, Rancagua, Providencia, Talca, La Ligua.
This epicenter is at the fifth node (72 degrees) from Hurricane Odalys and at the sixth node (60 degrees)
from Hurricane Polo and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 25SEP2026 15:29:09 34.0S 72.1W MW=5.2 EMSC OFFSHORE O'HIGGINS, CHILE
EMSC reported earthquakes of M 4.6 and M 4.4 in Colombia was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Colombia in Caicedonia, Pereira, Dosquebradas, Cali, Neiva, Barrio San Luis, Itagui.
O: 25SEP2026 07:19:43 3.8N 75.7W MB=4.4 EMSC COLOMBIA
O: 26SEP2026 06:38:19 4.0N 75.8W mb=4.6 EMSC COLOMBIA
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.5 in Kyushu, Japan was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Kyushu, Japan in Kumamoto.
O: 26SEP2026 01:31:19 32.7N 130.7E ML=4.5 EMSC KYUSHU, JAPAN
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 3.5 in Spain was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Spain in San Javier, Los Martinez, Pilar de la Horadada, Murcia, San Miguel de Salinas, Santa Cruz, Cabecicos.
This epicenter is at 103 degrees from Typhoon Surigae and Hurricane Odalys and
at the third node (120 degrees) from Flores Sea and Hurricane Nolo and may have been promoted by
energy from those sources.
O: 25SEP2026 09:04:35 37.9N 1.0W ML=3.5 EMSC SPAIN
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
HURRICANE ODALYS (DEPRESSION 16E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR ODALYS 2026-09-26 00:00 UT 18.0N 123.7W 140 kts West of Central America
Hurricane ODALYS (Tropical Depression 16E) continued in the area east of Central America in the North Pacific today as a major hurricane (Category 5) with winds up to 140 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but this storm is expected to reverse direction today and move back towards Baja California, Mexico where a landfall at hurricane force could occur around September 28-29, 2026. Some enhanced seismicity in Baja and the Gulf of California could occur at that time. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean near the Madagascar area, an semi-active seismic area near 18S 57E.
HURRICANE NOLO (15E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR NOLO 2026-09-26 00:00 UT 16.5N 155.4W 110 kts South of Hawaii
Hurricane Nolo (17E) continued in the area south of Hawaii with winds up to 110 kts. It is expected to intensify to a hurricane with winds up to 145 kts by September 28, 2026. At the same time it likely will turn north and track towards the island of Hawaii and then turn to the west. Hurricane warnings are in effect for Hawaii at this time. Seismicity and volcanism is likely to be enhanced while Nolo is in the region. The antipode is at 17S 25E in Southern Africa where enhanced seismicity is also possible at this time.
HURRICANE POLO (17E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR POLO 2026-09-26 00:00 UT 17.1N 108.8W 180 kts South of Colima, Mexico
Hurricane Polo (17E) continued in the area south of Colima, Mexico with winds up to 180 kts (Category 5 huricane). It is expected to track northwest towards Michoacan and Colima Mexico. It is expected to turn to the east before making landfall as a major hurricane with winds up to 180 kts in the Baja and Gulf of California area around September 27-28, 2026. Some enhanced seismicity in southwestern Mexico is possible from September 26-28. The antipode is at 17S 70E in the South Indian Ocean where enhanced seismicity is also possible at this time.
A tropical cyclone is forming east of peninsular India with winds up to 45 kts. It is located at 18N 84E and is not expected to enhance regional seismicity at this time.
TROPICAL STORM SURIGAE (25W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS SURIGAE 2026-09-26 00:00 UT 21.6N 127.5E 85 kts East of Taiwan/Philippines
Tropical Storm Surigae (25W) continued in the area west of the Philippines with winds up to 85 kts. It is expected to track northwest and to track east of the Ryukyu Islands reaching typhoon strength with winds up to 110 kts around September 27. Regional seismic enhancement is possible, but unlikely, in the area of Taiwan, Ryukyu Islands and Honshu if this path is slightly more to the west than currently expected. The antipode at 21S 53W is not a seismic area.
TROPICAL STORM FAY (DEPRESSION 16E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS FAY 2026-09-26 00:00 UT 29.8N 43.2W 35 kts Northern Mid-Atlantic
TS FAY continued in the area of the central Atlantic today with winds up to 35 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but some enhanced seismicity at this time is possible in the North Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The antipode is in in southeastern Austratlia near 30S 137E.
TROPICAL STORM GONZALES (DEPRESSION 17E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS GONZALES 2026-09-26 00:00 UT 17.6N 22.5W 45 kts Northern Mid-Atlantic
TS Gonzales continued in the area of the north-eastern Atlantic today with winds up to 50 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but some enhanced seismicity at this time is possible near the Cape Verdes and Canary Islands. The antipode is near the Loyalty Islands south of the Solomon Islands and north of Vanuatu near 17S 157E. This is not an active seismic area but it is possible that regional seismicity in the area will be enhanced from September 25-28 while this storm is antipodal. A strong regional earthquake is possible with today's full moon.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 25, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9470 0231 0244 0257 C1.1 (September 25, 2026) 1.5E-03
Caucasus M 4.1 02:42 UT
9480 0806 0816 0826 C1.2 (September 25, 2026) 1.1E-03
Northern Sumatra M 3.4 08:09 UT
Chiapas M 3.9 08:09 UT
Baja California M 3.1 08:19 UT
9510 1820 1830 1841 C1.2 (September 25, 2026) 1.2E-03
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: active September 26 unsettled September 27 quiet September 28. Solar M-flare chance: 10% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 20, high: 35, mid-latitude: 16, time of max k: 06:00-12:00 UT; Max k: 6 Global Kp 4.00 0600-1200, September 25; Sunspot Number: 110; Radio Flux: 105 September 25, 2026.
The GFZ Hp30 index reached Hp30 at 21:00-21:30 on September 25, 2026. This continued
a moderate geomagnetic storm which began on September 24 and reached high latitude
Kp levels of 6 mid-UT day. An earthquake of M 6.6 in the Loyalty Islands
accompanied the maximum Hp30 disturbance level at 21:00 UT.
The GOE-19 magnetometer shows a moderate increase in geomagnetic field strength
at 21:20-21:25 UT, probably related to It is
likely it was promoted by the geomagnetic disturbance at that time.
O: 25SEP2026 21:23:03 21.2S 168.6E ML=6.6 EMSC LOYALTY ISLANDS ANA
September 25, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
The full moon will arrive on September 26, 2026 at 16:49 UT. Longitudes which are sub-solar (local solar noon) are near 73 West while those at local solar midnight are near 107 East longitude. In the west these include areas of Central America, Colombia and the Caribbean and the west coast of South America while in the east these areas include western Indonesia, southeast and central Asia. These areas are most likely to see tidal triggering with this full moon.
A moderate geomagnetic storm began about 09:00 UT on September 24, 2026. GFZ reported Hp30 index rose to 5 at 09:30-10:00 UT and continued from Hp30 near 4 from 09:00 UT to 16:30 UT.
The commencement of this storm was also recorded on the GOES-18 magnetometer at local solar midnight (137 West longitude)
as beginning about 08:50 UT on September 24 as a sudden increase in the geomagnetic field strength
from about 25 nT to about 80 nT within a few minutes of this time. A C-class solar
flare was also recorded at this time. SWPC reported High latitude Kp reached 7 at the start
of this geomagnetic storm while the planetary K-index reached 4.33. This is the first
occurrence of a K-index of 7 or greader in the past month. The last such occurrence
was on August 18, 2026 when high latitude K-index reached 7 briefly mid-day.
A second geomagnetic storm arrived on September 25 beginning around 06:00 and peaking around 09:00 UT.
Kp30 index for this reached 4.33 throughout most of September 25.
The longitude at local solar noon at the time of both of these storms commencements was
44-45 degrees east. This is the longitude where the effects of such a storm
are most likely felt in the seismic (and other) arenas. An earthquake of M 4.5 did occur
in the Mozambique Channel at 44 degrees East longitude during the commencement
of the storm. This was followed on September 25, 2026 by an M 4.8 in Madagascar
This event also occurred within minutes of local solar noon and was probably
promoted by the geomagnetic storm.
These are unusually large earthquakes (at comparatively deep hypocenter) for the
region. The nearest earthquakes to the Mozambique event of M>=4.4 in the past 35 years occurred about 200
km from this epicenter on February 8, 2026 and March 9, 2025 and November 27, 2016
with M 4.6-4.7 each. At the time of the February, 2026 event this summary noted:
"A pair of earthquakes also occurred in the area of the Strait of Mozambique
west of Madagascar today with M 4.7 and 4.6. This area (see above) had been
the site of the strong tropical cyclone Fytia at the beginning of the week.
Stresses from this storm may have helped promote today's seismicity. A
second storm (TC Gezani) is approaching the area from the east at this time and may
continue the current swarm." (February 8, 2026)
With this in mind it should be noted that this epicenter in Mozambique is near
the antipode of Hurricane Odalys in the North Pacific and had been considered
in this and previous issues of this summary to be the site of a possible
antipodal earthquake at this time as:
"Hurricane ODALYS (Tropical Depression 16E) continued in the area east of Central America in the North Pacific today with winds up to 100 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but this storm is expected to reverse direction today and move back towards Baja California, Mexico where a landfall at hurricane force could occur around September 28-29, 2026. Some enhanced seismicity in Baja and the Gulf of California could occur at that time. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean near the Mozambique area, an semi-active seismic area at 16S 48E." (September 23-24, 2026)
Several strong hurricanes have passed over the antipode to this event in
the Mozambique Channel in the past month and may have helped promote today's
earthquake. These include Hurricane Lowell at the end of August and early September, 2026;
as well as Hernan and Lala earlier in August, 2026 as noted in previous issues
of this summary for example:
"TS Lowell formed today Southeast of Hawaii in the North Pacific with winds up to 50 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate seismic hazard to the region. It will approach Hawaii around September 3-4 and could enhance volcanism and seismicity in Hawaii at that time. This storm is antipodal to the East African Rift and Madagascar at 12S 47E" (August 27-28, 2026)
This epicenter is also at 120 (node 3) degrees from Colombia and may have been promoted by
energy from that source.
O: 24SEP2026 10:21:30 15.1S 44.2E ML=4.2 EMSC MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
The M 4.8 in Madagascar within minutes of local solar noon with the geomagnetic
storm of September 25 was the strongest earthquake in Madagascar within about
200 km of this epicenter in the past 35 years. Regional earthquakes hit the area with M 5.1 last on
September 18, 2011 and September 17 and 24, 2006. The clustering of these
events in mid-September is probably not coincidental as tropical cyclones
at the antipode west of Mexico are common at this time and can help
promote antipodal seismicity in Madagascar and Mozambique. At the time of the M 5.7 on September 24, 2006 (exactly 20 years ago today)
this summary noted:
"O: 24SEP2006 22:56:22 17.7S 41.8E MB=5.7 NEIS MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
The last earthquake of similar or greater magnitude listed by NEIC in the region of MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL within 210 km of this epicenter in the region bounded by (15.8-19.6S 39.8- 43.8E) since an earthquake of magnitude M 5.7 hit on 09/24/2006 at 17.71S 41.76E in the region of the MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. In the past five years NEIC has reported 0 days on which earthquakes in this region at this magnitude or of larger magnitude for an average interevent time of 2e+308 months. These have occurred per year as follows with yearly interevent time:
2002: 0 (IT:unknown months); 2003: 0 (IT:unknown months); 2004: 0 (IT:unknown months);
2005: 1 (IT:12.0 months)" (September 24, 2006)
The earthquake in Madagascar is at 146 degrees from Hurricane Polo and near the antipode
of a greatly strengthened Hurricane Odalys and may have been promoted by
energy from that source as noted in this summary:
"Hurricane ODALYS (Tropical Depression 16E) continued in the area east of Central America in the North Pacific today as a major hurricane (Category 5) with winds up to 140 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but this storm is expected to reverse direction today and move back towards Baja California, Mexico where a landfall at hurricane force could occur around September 28-29, 2026. Some enhanced seismicity in Baja and the Gulf of California could occur at that time. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean near the Madagascar area, an semi-active seismic area near 17S 50E." (September 25, 2026)
O: 25SEP2026 09:24:39 17.1S 43.5E ML=4.8 EMSC MADAGASCAR
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.4 in Central Peru was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central Peru with IV in Huacho and II-III in San Luis, Lima.
This epicenter is at the sixth node (60 degrees) from Tropical Storm Gonzales
and at the seventh node (52 degrees) from Tropical Storm Fay and may have
been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 25SEP2026 04:26:31 11.3S 77.6W MB=4.4 EMSC NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.1 in Caucasus, Russia was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Caucasus, Russia with IV in Orel-Izumrud, Krasnodar.
EMSC reported it was felt with moderate intensity in Russia at Sochi, Khosta, Adler, Kashtany, Dagomys, Tatarka, Pyatigorsk and in Sokhumi, Georgia.
This epicenter, like the M 5.3 in eastern Turkey is at the fourth node (90 degrees) from
the Flores Sea and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 25SEP2026 02:42:31 43.5N 39.5E MB=4.1 EMSC CAUCASUS REGION, RUSSIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.8 in Western Texas was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Western Texas in Garden City, and Midland.
Several lighter aftershocks were also felt in the area.
This epicenter is at the seventh node (51 degrees) from Hurricane Nolo and Tropical Storm
Fay and at the fifth node (72 degrees) from Tropical Storm Gonzales and may
have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 24SEP2026 14:39:26 30.8N 103.4W ML=2.8 EMSC WESTERN TEXAS
O: 24SEP2026 15:11:23 31.6N 104.1W ML=2.0 EMSC WESTERN TEXAS
O: 24SEP2026 08:36:08 31.7N 101.7W mb=3.8 EMSC WESTERN TEXAS
O: 24SEP2026 08:36:08 31.7N 101.7W mb=3.6 NEIC WESTERN TEXAS
O: 24SEP2026 09:36:39 31.7N 101.7W ML=3.0 EMSC WESTERN TEXAS
O: 24SEP2026 09:38:10 31.7N 101.7W ML=2.7 EMSC WESTERN TEXAS
O: 24SEP2026 16:02:06 31.7N 104.1W ML=2.2 EMSC WESTERN TEXAS
O: 24SEP2026 17:23:29 31.7N 101.7W ML=2.8 EMSC WESTERN TEXAS
O: 24SEP2026 20:33:21 31.7N 101.7W ML=3.2 EMSC WESTERN TEXAS
O: 24SEP2026 20:57:01 31.7N 101.7W ML=2.8 EMSC WESTERN TEXAS
O: 25SEP2026 02:25:11 31.7N 104.5W ML=3.1 EMSC WESTERN TEXAS
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.7 in Central California near Orange Cove was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central California near Orange Cove in Dinuba.
O: 24SEP2026 15:40:28 36.6N 119.3W MD=2.7 EMSC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
The strongest earthquake felt in the world today was an M 5.3 in Eastern Turkey.
NEIC reported this earthquake was felt with intensity up to up to VI in the area(s) of eastern Turkey with VI in Urfa, Sanliurga; V in Gaziantep; IV in ar=Raqqah, Syria, and III in Turkey at Halfeti, Mardin and in Aleppo, Syria.
EMSC reported it was felt with moderate shaking in Turkey at Sanliurfa, Samsat, Yaylak, Akpinar, Adiyaman, Viransehir, Birecik, Colakli, Buyuk Yenice, Malatya, Sekili, Yenisehir, and in Syria at Mangij.
Several aftershocks were also felt.
This epicenter is at the fourth node (90 degrees) from Flores Sea and may have been promoted
by energy from that source.
O: 24SEP2026 07:40:58 37.4N 38.9E MW=5.3 EMSC EASTERN TURKEY
EMSC reported a series of earthquakes of M 4.6, 4.4, 4.2 and 4.5 in Colombia were felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Colombia at Ibague, Cali, Circasia, and Dosquebradas.
O: 24SEP2026 16:46:36 3.8N 75.6W MB=4.6 EMSC COLOMBIA
O: 25SEP2026 07:19:43 3.8N 75.7W mb=4.4 EMSC COLOMBIA
O: 24SEP2026 17:14:34 4.0N 75.9W mb=4.2 EMSC COLOMBIA
O: 25SEP2026 00:57:07 4.5N 77.0W mb=4.5 EMSC COLOMBIA
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 5.3 in New Guinea was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of New Guinea in Lae.
This epicenter is at 105 degrees from Hurricane Polo; the fourth node (90 degrees)
from Hurricane Odalys and the sixth node from Hurricane Nolo and may have been
promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 24SEP2026 23:30:30 6.1S 147.4E MW=5.3 EMSC EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.8 in Kamchatka was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Kamchatka in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky.
O: 24SEP2026 10:55:14 52.7N 159.9E MB=4.8 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
HURRICANE ODALYS (DEPRESSION 16E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR ODALYS 2026-09-25 00:00 UT 17.3N 124.1W 140 kts West of Central America
Hurricane ODALYS (Tropical Depression 16E) continued in the area east of Central America in the North Pacific today as a major hurricane (Category 5) with winds up to 140 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but this storm is expected to reverse direction today and move back towards Baja California, Mexico where a landfall at hurricane force could occur around September 28-29, 2026. Some enhanced seismicity in Baja and the Gulf of California could occur at that time. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean near the Madagascar area, an semi-active seismic area near 17S 50E.
HURRICANE NOLO (15E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR NOLO 2026-09-25 00:00 UT 15.9N 155.6W 90 kts South of Hawaii
Hurricane Nolo (17E) continued in the area south of Hawaii with winds up to 90 kts. It is expected to intensify to a hurricane with winds up to 145 kts by September 28, 2026. At the same time it likely will turn north and track towards the island of Hawaii and then turn to the west. Hurricane warnings are in effect for Hawaii at this time. Seismicity and volcanism is likely to be enhanced while Nolo is in the region. The antipode is at 15S 24E in the Southern Africa where enhanced seismicity is also possible at this time.
HURRICANE POLO (17E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR POLO 2026-09-25 00:00 UT 17.1N 107.0W 165 kts South of Colima, Mexico
Hurricane Polo (17E) continued in the area south of Colima, Mexico with winds up to 165 kts (Category 5 huricane). It is expected to track northwest towards Michoacan and Colima Mexico. It is expected to turn to the east before making landfall as a major hurricane with winds up to 150 kts in the Baja and Gulf of California area around September 27-28, 2026. Some enhanced seismicity in southwestern Mexico is possible from September 25-28. The antipode is at 17S 73E in the South Indian Ocean where enhanced seismicity is also possible at this time.
A tropical cyclone is forming east of peninsular India with winds up to 45 kts. It is located at 18N 84E and is not expected to enhance regional seismicity at this time.
TROPICAL STORM SURIGAE (25W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS SURIGAE 2026-09-25 00:00 UT 21.6N 128.5E 65 kts East of Taiwan/Philippines
Tropical Storm Surigae (25W) continued in the area west of the Philippines with winds up to 65 kts. It is expected to track northwest and to track east of the Ryukyu Islands reaching typhoon strength with winds up to 110 kts around September 27. Regional seismic enhancement is possible, but unlikely, in the area of Taiwan, Ryukyu Islands and Honshu if this path is slightly more to the west than currently expected. The antipode at 21S 52W is not a seismic area.
TROPICAL STORM FAY (DEPRESSION 16E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS FAY 2026-09-25 00:00 UT 29.8N 41.2W 50 kts Northern Mid-Atlantic
TS FAY continued in the area of the central Atlantic today with winds up to 50 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but some enhanced seismicity at this time is possible in the North Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The antipode is in in southeastern Austratlia near 30S 139E.
TROPICAL STORM GONZALES (DEPRESSION 17E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS GONZALES 2026-09-25 00:00 UT 16.4N 22.5W 50 kts Northern Mid-Atlantic
TS Gonzales formed in the area of the north-eastern Atlantic today with winds up to 50 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but some enhanced seismicity at this time is possible near the Cape Verdes and Canary Islands. The antipode is near the Loyalty Islands south of the Solomon Islands and north of Vanuatu near 16S 157E. This is an active seismic area and it is likely that regional seismicity in the area will be enhanced from September 25-28 while this storm is antipodal. A strong regional earthquake is possible with today's full moon.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 24, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9450 0852 0903 0911 C1.5 (September 24, 2026) 1.4E-03
Mozambique M 4.2 10:21 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: active September 25-26 unsettled September 27. Solar M-flare chance: 20% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 16, high: 35, mid-latitude: 13, time of max k: 09:00-12:00 UT; Max k: 7 Global Kp 4.33 0900-1200, September 24; Sunspot Number: 124; Radio Flux: 112 September 23, 2026.
The GFZ Hp30 index did not exceed 1.33 during the day of September 23, 2026.
A moderate geomagnetic storm began about 09:00 UT on September 24, 2026. GFZ reported Hp30 index rose to 5 at 09:30-10:00 UT and continued from Hp30 near 4 from 09:00 UT to 16:30 UT.
The commencement of this storm was also recorded on the GOES-18 magnetometer at local solar midnight (137 West longitude)
as beginning about 08:50 UT on September 24 as a sudden increase in the geomagnetic field strength
from about 25 nT to about 80 nT within a few minutes of this time. A C-class solar
flare was also recorded at this time. SWPC reported High latitude Kp reached 7 at the start
of this geomagnetic storm while the planetary K-index reached 4.33. This is the first
occurrence of a K-index of 7 or greader in the past month. The last such occurrence
was on August 18, 2026 when high latitude K-index reached 7 briefly mid-day.
September 24, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
A moderate geomagnetic storm began about 09:00 UT on September 24, 2026. GFZ reported Hp30 index rose to 5 at 09:30-10:00 UT and continued from Hp30 near 4 from 09:00 UT to 16:30 UT.
The commencement of this storm was also recorded on the GOES-18 magnetometer at local solar midnight (137 West longitude)
as beginning about 08:50 UT on September 24 as a sudden increase in the geomagnetic field strength
from about 25 nT to about 80 nT within a few minutes of this time. A C-class solar
flare was also recorded at this time. SWPC reported High latitude Kp reached 7 at the start
of this geomagnetic storm while the planetary K-index reached 4.33. This is the first
occurrence of a K-index of 7 or greader in the past month. The last such occurrence
was on August 18, 2026 when high latitude K-index reached 7 briefly mid-day.
The longitude at local solar noon at the time of this storm commencement was
44-45 degrees east. This is the longitude where the effects of such a storm
are most likely felt in the seismic (and other) arenas. An earthquake of M 4.5 did occur
in the Mozambique Channel at 44 degrees East longitude during the commencement
of the storm.
This is an unusually large earthquake (at comparatively deep hypocenter) for the
region. The nearest earthquakes of M>=4.4 in the past 35 years occurred about 200
km from this epicenter on February 8, 2026 and March 9, 2025 and November 27, 2016
with M 4.6-4.7 each. At the time of the February, 2026 event this summary noted:
"A pair of earthquakes also occurred in the area of the Strait of Mozambique
west of Madagascar today with M 4.7 and 4.6. This area (see above) had been
the site of the strong tropical cyclone Fytia at the beginning of the week.
Stresses from this storm may have helped promote today's seismicity. A
second storm (TC Gezani) is approaching the area from the east at this time and may
continue the current swarm." (February 8, 2026)
With this in mind it should be noted that this epicenter in Mozambique is near
the antipode of Hurricane Odalys in the North Pacific and had been considered
in this and previous issues of this summary to be the site of a possible
antipodal earthquake at this time as:
"Hurricane ODALYS (Tropical Depression 16E) continued in the area east of Central America in the North Pacific today with winds up to 100 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but this storm is expected to reverse direction today and move back towards Baja California, Mexico where a landfall at hurricane force could occur around September 28-29, 2026. Some enhanced seismicity in Baja and the Gulf of California could occur at that time. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean near the Mozambique area, an semi-active seismic area at 16S 48E." (September 23-24, 2026)
This epicenter is also at 120 (node 3) degrees from Colombia and may have been promoted by
energy from that source.
O: 24SEP2026 10:21:30 15.1S 44.2E ML=4.5 EMSC MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
HURRICANE ODALYS (DEPRESSION 16E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR ODALYS 2026-09-24 00:00 UT 15.8N 132.7W 80 kts West of Central America
Hurricane ODALYS (Tropical Depression 16E) continued in the area east of Central America in the North Pacific today with winds up to 100 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but this storm is expected to reverse direction today and move back towards Baja California, Mexico where a landfall at hurricane force could occur around September 28-29, 2026. Some enhanced seismicity in Baja and the Gulf of California could occur at that time. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean near the Mozambique area, an semi-active seismic area at 16S 48E.
TROPICAL STORM NOLO (15E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS NOLO 2026-09-24 00:00 UT 14.9N 156.1W 65 kts South of Hawaii
Tropical Storm Nolo (17E) continued in the area south of Hawaii with winds up to 65 kts. It is expected to intensify to a hurricane with winds up to 130 kts by September 27, 2026. At the same time it likely will turn north and track into the island of Hawaii. Hurricane warnings are in effect for Hawaii at this time. Seismicity and volcanism is likely to be enhanced while Nolo is in the region. The antipode is at 15S 24E in the Southern Africa where enhanced seismicity is also possible at this time.
TROPICAL STORM POLO (17E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS POLO 2026-09-24 00:00 UT 16.7N 103.9W 165 kts South of Michoacan, Mexico
Tropical Storm Polo (17E) continued in the area south of Michoacan, Mexico with winds up to 165 kts (Category 5 huricane). It is expected to track northwest towards Michoacan and Colima Mexico. It is expected to turn to the east before making landfall as a major hurricane with winds up to 150 kts in the Baja and Gulf of California area around September 27-28, 2026. Some enhanced seismicity in southwestern Mexico is possible from September 25-27. The antipode is at 17S 77E in the South Indian Ocean where enhanced seismicity is also possible at this time.
A tropical cyclone is forming east of peninsular India with winds up to 45 kts. It is located at 18N 84E and is not expected to enhance regional seismicity at this time.
TROPICAL STORM SURIGAE (25W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS SURIGAE 2026-09-24 00:00 UT 18.6N 132.5E 50 kts East of Taiwan/Philippines
Tropical Storm Surigae (25W) continued in the area west of the Philippines with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track northwest and to track east of the Ryukyu Islands reaching typhoon strength with winds up to 130 kts aroudn September 27. Regional seismic enhancement is possible, but unlikely, in the area of Taiwan, Ryukyu Islands and Honshu if this path is slightly more to the west than currently expected. The antipode at 18S 48W is not a seismic area.
TROPICAL STORM FAY (DEPRESSION 16E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS FAY 2026-09-24 00:00 UT 29.8N 41.2W 50 kts Northern Mid-Atlantic
TS FAY continued in the area of the central Atlantic today with winds up to 50 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but some enhanced seismicity at this time is possible in the North Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The antipode is in in southeastern Austratlia near 30S 139E.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 23, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9360 0608 0621 0637 C1.3 (September 23, 2026) 2.0E-03
Mindanao M 4.2 06:19 UT
No. Philippines M 3.5 06:35 UT
9370 1114 1131 1145 C1.6 (September 23, 2026) 2.6E-03
9390 1522 1532 1535 C1.1 (September 23, 2026) 7.8E-04
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: minor storms September 24 active September 25-26. Solar M-flare chance: 20% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 4, high: 0, mid-latitude: 4, time of max k: 22:00-24:00 UT; Max k: 1 Global Kp 1.67 2000-2400, September 23; Sunspot Number: 142; Radio Flux: 120 September 23, 2026.
The GFZ Hp30 index did not exceed 1.33 during the day of September 23, 2026.
A moderate geomagnetic storm began about 09:00 UT on September 24, 2026. GFZ reported Hp30 index rose to 5 at 09:30-10:00 UT and continued from Hp30 near 4 from 09:00 UT to 16:30 UT.
The commencement of this storm was also recorded on the GOES-18 magnetometer at local solar midnight (137 West longitude)
as beginning about 08:50 UT on September 24 as a sudden increase in the geomagnetic field strength
from about 25 nT to about 80 nT within a few minutes of this time. A C-class solar
flare was also recorded at this time. SWPC reported High latitude Kp reached 7 at the start
of this geomagnetic storm while the planetary K-index reached 4.33. This is the first
occurrence of a K-index of 7 or greader in the past month. The last such occurrence
was on August 18, 2026 when high latitude K-index reached 7 briefly mid-day.
September 23, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
HURRICANE ODALYS (DEPRESSION 16E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR ODALYS 2026-09-23 00:00 UT 15.8N 128.7W 80 kts West of Central America
Hurricane ODALYS (Tropical Depression 16E) continued in the area east of Central America in the North Pacific today with winds up to 80 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but this storm is expected to reverse direction today and move back towards Baja California, Mexico where a landfall at hurricane force could occur around September 28-29, 2026. Some enhanced seismicity in Baja and the Gulf of California could occur at that time. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean, an semi-active seismic area at 16S 52E.
TROPICAL STORM POLO (17E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS POLO 2026-09-23 00:00 UT 14.6N 101.4W 175 kts South of Michoacan, Mexico
Tropical Storm Polo (17E) continued in the area south of Michoacan, Mexico. It is expected to track northwest towards Michoacan and Colima Mexico. It is expected to turn to the west before making landfall as a major hurricane with winds up to 150 kts but enhanced seismicity in southwestern Mexico is possible at this time. The antipode is at 15S 79E in the South Indian Ocean where enhanced seismicity is also possible at this time.
A tropical cyclone is forming south of Hawaii with winds up to 23 kts. It is located at 13N 150W and is not expected to enhance regional seismicity at this time.
A tropical cyclone is forming east of peninsular India with winds up to 55 kts. It is located at 17N 84E and is not expected to enhance regional seismicity at this time.
A tropical cyclone is forming in the Northern Pacific with winds up to 35 kts. It is located at 16N 138E and is not expected to enhance regional seismicity at this time. The antipode at 16S 42W is not a seismic area.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 22, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9300 0427 0451 0501 C2.0 (September 22, 2026) 2.8E-03
Azores M 2.2 04:27 UT
9330 1711 1720 1725 C2.4 (September 22, 2026) 1.3E-03
Central California M 2.0 17:30 UT
Greenland Sea M 3.5 17:30 UT
9340 1743 1758 1850 C1.1 (September 22, 2026) 3.9E-03
Fiji M 4.4 18:48 UT
Washignton M 2.1 18:50 UT
Kermadec Is. M 3.7 18:50 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: active September 23 minor storms September 25 active September 25. Solar M-flare chance: 20% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 3, high: 0, mid-latitude: 2, time of max k: 00:00-03:00 UT; Max k: 1 Global Kp 2.00 0000-0300, September 22; Sunspot Number: 85; Radio Flux: 118 September 20, 2026.
The GFZ Hp30 index did not exceed 1.33 during the day of September 22, 2026.
No geomagnetic storms were recorded in the past three days.
September 22, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS (DEPRESSION 16E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS ODALYS 2026-09-22 00:00 UT 15.1N 128.5W 70 kts West of Central America
TS ODALYS (Tropical Depression 16E) continued in the area east of Central America in the North Pacific today with winds up to 70 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but this storm is expected to reverse direction today and move back towards Baja California, Mexico where a landfall at hurricane force could occur around September 28-29, 2026. Some enhanced seismicity in Baja and the Gulf of California could occur at that time. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean, an semi-active seismic area at 14S 52E.
TROPICAL STORM POLO (17E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS POLO 2026-09-22 00:00 UT 15.5N 102.0W 100 kts South of Michoacan, Mexico
Tropical Storm Polo (17E) continued in the area south of Colima, Mexico. This system is moving northwards towards Michoacan and Colima Mexico. It is expected to turn to the west before making landfall as a major hurricane with winds up to 180 kts but enhanced seismicity in southwestern Mexico is possible at this time. The antipode is at 15S 78E in the South Indian Ocean where enhanced seismicity is also possible at this time.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 21, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9200 0059 0113 0125 C1.1 (September 21, 2026) 1.4E-03
Central Turkey M 4.9 01:02 UT
Costa Rica M 4.2 00:59 UT
Central Peru M 4.3 01:07 UT
9220 0621 0629 0635 C1.2 (September 21, 2026) 7.3E-04
Central Turkey M 1.0 06:21 UT
Central Peru M 3.7 06:39 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: Quiet September 22 active September 23 minor storms September 24. Solar M-flare chance: 10% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 3, high: 0, mid-latitude: 2, time of max k: 15:00-17:00 UT; Max k: 2 Global Kp 1.67 0000-0300, September 21; Sunspot Number: 85; Radio Flux: 104 September 20, 2026.
The GFZ Hp30 index did not exceed 2.33 during the day of September 21, 2026.
No geomagnetic storms were recorded in the past three days.
September 21, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
A moderate solar flare occurred starting at 22:25 UT on September 20, 2026 with C3.0 class.
This flare was immediately accompanied by earthquakes in Turkey (M 1.6) and the
Dodecanese Islands (M 1.1) and Crete (M 3.5) were at local solar midnight at the time.
Further activity related to this flare - the strongest in nearly a week
- may be expected in the next several hours. SWPC provided the following
parameters for this flare.
Added later:
An earthquake of M 4.8 occurred in Turkey early on September 21, 2026. This
epicenter was near local solar midnight when the flare (see above) occurred
and may have been promoted by SFE from that event. EMSC reported this earthquakes
was felt with moderate to strong intensity in Turkey at Goksun, Kadirli, Kozan, Yenicekale, Kahramanmaras, Elbistan, Adana, Seyhan, Sahinbey, Nigde, and in I'zaz, Syria.
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9160 0452 0518 0539 C1.1 (September 20, 2026) 2.6E-03
9190 2225 2234 2243 C3.7 (September 20, 2026) 2.8E-03
Crete M 3.4 22:41 UT
Western Turkey M 1.6 22:23 UT
Central Turkey M 4.8 01:02 UT
O: 21SEP2026 01:02:04 37.8N 36.2E ML=4.8 EMSC CENTRAL TURKEY
NEIC reported a pair of nearly antipodal earthquakes of M 5.7 South of Africa and M 5.0 South of Alaska occurred
on September 20. These earthquakes occurred about 11 minutes apart, not enough
time for seismic waves to traverse the distance between them. But they
may have been triggered by a outside stress.
O: 20SEP2026 20:54:37 48.3S 31.2E ML=5.7 EMSC SOUTH OF AFRICA
O: 20SEP2026 21:06:19 52.7N 162.5W ML=5.0 EMSC SOUTH OF ALASKA
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL STORM FAY (DEPRESSION 16E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS FAY 2026-09-21 00:00 UT 33.8N 32.1W 65 kts Azores
TS FAY continued in the area of the central Atlantic near the Azores Islands today with winds up to 65 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but some enhanced seismicity at this time is possible in the Azores or the regional Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The antipode is in in southeastern Austratlia near 34S 148E in the area of New South Wales. This area could see enhanced seismicity at this time.
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS (DEPRESSION 16E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS ODALYS 2026-09-21 00:00 UT 13.1N 128.5W 50 kts West of Central America
TS ODALYS (Tropical Depression 16E) continued in the area east of Central America in the North Pacific today with winds up to 50 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but this storm is expected to reverse direction today and move back towards Baja California, Mexico where a landfall at hurricane force could occur around September 18-29, 2026. Some enhanced seismicity in Baja and the Gulf of California could occur at that time. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean, an semi-active seismic area at 13S 52W.
TYPHOON DUJUAN (DEPRESSION 24W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH DUJUAN 2026-09-21 00:00 UT 33.7N 139.8E 85 kts Izu Islands, Japan
Typhoon DUJUAN (Tropical Depression 24W) continued in the area of the Izu Islands, Japan today with winds up to 85 kts. It is expected track to the east and north over the next several days possibly encountering landfall near Tokyo, Honshu, Japan as a minor typhoon with winds up to 85 kts around September 21, 2026. This area often sees enhanced seismicity with strong ocean storms and this could be the case in this situation. The antipode near 34S 40W in the South Atlantic is not a seismic zone.
TROPICAL STORM POLO (17E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS POLO 2026-09-21 00:00 UT 15.5N 104.0W 50 kts South of Michoacan, Mexico
Tropical Storm Polo (17E) continued in the area south of Colima, Mexico. This system is currently located near 15N 104W and moving northwards towards Michoacan and Colima Mexico. It is expected to turn to the west before making landfall as a major hurricane with winds up to 150 kts but enhanced seismicity in southwestern Mexico is possible at this time. The antipode is at 15S 76E in the South Indian Ocean where enhanced seismicity is also possible at this time.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 20, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9160 0452 0518 0539 C1.1 (September 20, 2026) 2.6E-03
9190 2225 2234 2243 C3.7 (September 20, 2026) 2.8E-03
Crete M 3.4 22:41 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: Quiet September 21-23. Solar M-flare chance: 1% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 6, high: 4, mid-latitude: 6, time of max k: 05:00-07:00 UT; Max k: 3 Global Kp 3.00 0300-0600, September 20; Sunspot Number: 11; Radio Flux: 101 September 20, 2026.
The GFZ Hp30 index did not exceed 2.33 during the day of September 20, 2026.
No geomagnetic storms were recorded in the past three days.
September 20, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
A moderate solar flare occurred starting at 22:25 UT on September 20, 2026 with C3.0 class.
This flare was immediately accompanied by earthquakes in Turkey (M 1.6) and the
Dodecanese Islands (M 1.1) and Crete (M 3.5) were at local solar midnight at the time.
Further activity related to this flare - the strongest in nearly a week
- may be expected in the next several hours. SWPC provided the following
parameters for this flare.
Added later:
An earthquake of M 4.8 occurred in Turkey early on September 21, 2026. This
epicenter was near local solar midnight when the flare (see above) occurred
and may have been promoted by SFE from that event. EMSC reported this earthquakes
was felt with moderate to strong intensity in Turkey at Goksun, Kadirli, Kozan, Yenicekale, Kahramanmaras, Elbistan, Adana, Seyhan, Sahinbey, Nigde, and in I'zaz, Syria.
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
XXXX 2225 2234 2243 C3.7 (September 20, 2026) 2.8E-03
Crete M 3.4 22:41 UT
Western Turkey M 1.6 22:23 UT
Central Turkey M 4.8 01:02 UT
O: 21SEP2026 01:02:04 37.8N 36.2E ML=4.8 EMSC CENTRAL TURKEY
NEIC reported a pair of nearly antipodal earthquakes of M 5.7 South of Africa and M 5.0 South of Alaska occurred
on September 20. These earthquakes occurred about 11 minutes apart, not enough
time for seismic waves to traverse the distance between them. But they
may have been triggered by a outside stress.
O: 20SEP2026 20:54:37 48.3S 31.2E ML=5.7 EMSC SOUTH OF AFRICA
O: 20SEP2026 21:06:19 52.7N 162.5W ML=5.0 EMSC SOUTH OF ALASKA
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL STORM FAY (DEPRESSION 16E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS FAY 2026-09-20 00:00 UT 34.4N 32.5W 65 kts Azores
TS FAY formed in the area of the central Atlantic near the Azore Islands today with winds up to 65 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected but some enhanced seismicity at this time is possible in the Azores or the regional North Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The antipode is in in southeastern Austratlia near 34S 148E in the area of New South Wales. This area could see enhanced seismicity at this time.
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS (DEPRESSION 16E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS ODALYS 2026-09-20 00:00 UT 11.1N 123.5W 50 kts West of Central America
TS ODALYS (Tropical Depression 16E) formed in the area east of Central America in the North Pacific today with winds up to 50 kts. No immediate effect on local seismicity is expected. The antipode is in the South Indian Ocean, an active seismic area at 11S 58W.
TROPICAL STORM DUJUAN (DEPRESSION 24W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS DUJUAN 2026-09-20 00:00 UT 30.1N 140.5E 75 kts Izu/Bonin/Volcano Islands
TS DUJUAN (Tropical Depression 24W) continued in the area of the Izu, Bonin and Volcano Islands, Japan today with winds up to 75 kts. It is expected track to the east and then north over the next several days possibly encountering Honshu as a minor typhoon with winds up to 85 kts around September 21, 2026. This area often sees enhanced seismicity with strong ocean storms and this could be the case in this situation. The antipode near 30S 40W in the South Atlantic is not a seismic zone.
A tropical Depression may be forming south of Colima, Mexico. This system is currently located near 14N 105W and moving northwards towards Michoacan and Colima Mexico. It is expected to turn to the west before making landfall but enhanced seismicity in southwestern Mexico is possible at this time. The antipode is at 14S 74E in the South Indian Ocean where enhanced seismicity is also possible at this time.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 19, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
XXXX 2225 2234 2243 C3.7 (September 20, 2026) 2.8E-03
Crete M 3.4 22:41 UT
9070 1757 1817 1832 C3.3 (September 19, 2026) 4.1E-03
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: Quiet September 20-22. Solar M-flare chance: 1% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 7, high: 4, mid-latitude: 6, time of max k: 16:00-18:00 UT; Max k: 3 Global Kp 2.67 0300-0600, September 19; Sunspot Number: 11; Radio Flux: 97 September 19, 2026.
The GFZ Hp30 index did not exceed 4 during the day of September 19, 2026.
No geomagnetic storms were recorded in the past three days.
September 19, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
A strong excursion in the strength of the geomagnetic field was measured by the magnetometer of GOES-18 on September 18, 2026
beginning about 14:30 UT. An arcjet maneuver was performed to correct the
satellite orbit and normal operations continued about an hour later.
Four moderate earthquakes were associated with this geomagnetic change - an M 4.1 in Xinjiang, China; an M 4.5 in Costa Rica, an M 5.1 in the area south of Java and an M 4.1 in Tarapaca, Chile. An M 5.2 followed two hours later
in the area of Santiago, Chile within minutes of local solar noon. This event
may have been promoted by the geomagnetic spike.
O: 18SEP2026 16:52:07 33.3S 70.3W ML=5.2 EMSC REGION METROPOLITANA, CHILE
O: 18SEP2026 14:32:36 41.3N 83.3E ML=4.1 EMSC SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
O: 18SEP2026 14:33:32 8.7N 84.7E ML=4.5 EMSC OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA
O: 18SEP2026 14:36:21 8.7S 105.8E ML=5.1 EMSC SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
O: 14SEP2026 23:09:50 8.8S 105.6E ML=4.4 EMSC SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA" (September 15, 2026)
Astute readers may recall that the last such geomagnetic spike was also
accompanied by a moderate earthquake at the same location in the area south
of Java as reported at the time:
"A strong excursion in the geomagnetic field strength was registered at GOES-19 magnetometer (at 72 West longitude)
beginning about 22:35 UT September 14, 2026.
...
O: 14SEP2026 23:09:50 8.8S 105.6E ML=4.4 EMSC SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA" (September 15, 2026)
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL STORM DUJUAN (DEPRESSION 24W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS DUJUAN 2026-09-19 00:00 UT 26.1N 142.5E 75 kts Bonin/Volcano Islands
TS DUJUAN (Tropical Depression 24W) continued in the area of the Bonin and Volcano Islands, Japan today with winds up to 75 kts. It is expected track to the west and then north over the next several days possibly encountering Honshu as a minor typhoon with winds up to 85 kts around September 21, 2026. This area often sees enhanced seismicity with strong ocean storms and this could be the case in this situation. The antipode near 26S 37W in the South Atlantic is not a seismic zone.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 18, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
There were no solar flares of C- class or higher reported by SWPC on September 18, 2026.
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: Quiet September 19-21. Solar M-flare chance: 1% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 5, high: 3, mid-latitude: 6, time of max k: 06:00-08:00 UT; Max k: 2 Global Kp 2.00 0600-0900, September 18; Sunspot Number: 0; Radio Flux: 96 September 18, 2026.
The GFZ Hp30 index did not exceed 3 during the day of September 18, 2026.
No geomagnetic storms were recorded in the past three days.
September 18, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL STORM DUJUAN (DEPRESSION 24W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS DUJUAN 2026-09-18 00:00 UT 25.1N 146.5E 75 kts Bonin/Volcano Islands
TS DUJUAN (Tropical Depression 24W) continued in the area of the Bonin and Volcano Islands, Japan today with winds up to 75 kts. It is expected track to the west and then north over the next several days possibly encountering Honshu as a minor typhoon with winds up to 85 kts around September 21, 2026. This area often sees enhanced seismicity with strong ocean storms and this could be the case in this situation. The antipode near 24S 35W in the South Atlantic is not a seismic zone.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 17, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
There were no solar flares of C- class or higher reported by SWPC on September 17, 2026.
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: unsettled September 18 Quiet September 19-20. Solar M-flare chance: 1% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 9, high: 14, mid-latitude: 7, time of max k: 14:00-16:00 UT; Max k: 6 Global Kp 3.00 1400-1600, September 17; Sunspot Number: 11; Radio Flux: 97 September 17, 2026.
The GFZ Hp30 index did not exceed 4 during the day of September 17, 2026.
No geomagnetic storms were recorded.
September 17, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
A strong earthquake of M 6.5 occurred today in the western Fox Islands, Alaska. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III in Alaska at Atka and Unalaska and II in Adak, Alaska. No tsunami was observed nor expected
with this earthquake. The last earthquake of M>=6.5 within about 200 km of
this epicenter in the Aleutians was an M 6.9 on July 27, 2015 and prior to
that anM 6.9 on September 2, 2011 aftershock of an M 7.3 on June 24, 2011.
At the time of the September, 2011 quake this summary noted:
"The earthquake of M 6.8 in the Fox Islands of Alaska is the strongest aftershock
to date of the M 7.2 which hit the area on June 24, 2011 and the second
strongest event in the Fox Islands in the past three years. The event in June
was the strongest in the Fox Islands since 1957 and the largest in the North
American plate since November 2002. Strong earthquakes, such as those in
1957 often come in groups in the Fox Islands and further activity at
this level may be expected in the region through the remainder of 2011 and 2012. As we have noted on many occasions in
this summary, the Fox Islands epicenter is located at the 10th node (36 degrees
and 72 degrees) from two of the largest earthquakes this year - the great
earthquake in Japan (M 9.0) of March 11 is 36.0 degrees away and the major
Vanuatu earthquake (M 7.2) of August 20 was at 72.0 degrees from this epicenter
in the Fox Islands. This sets up constructive interference encouraging
future large quakes in the area. The relation to Japan is interesting
and may help set up a strong Japanese aftershock in the next several days
especially if a strong geomagnetic storm should hit today. Forecast 61283
had expected a major Fox Islands aftershock around September 1. The earthquake
was not reported felt in the area but a tsunami warning and a small tsunami
wave was observed in Atka according to the Alaska Department of Homeland Security.
The earthquake was widely felt in Atka but there were no damages or casualties.
Cleveland Volcano is near this epicenter but extensive cloud cover prevented
observation of any related volcanism but scientists continue to monitor the
situation." (September 2, 2011)
Today's earthquake in the Fox Islands was concurrent with the sudden commencement
of a moderate geomagnetic storm at about 14:20 UT. NOAA shows a sudden increase
in the K-index from 2 to 6 at this time on September 17. GOES magnetometers
show a moderate sudden geomagnetic field strength enhancement and an electron flux increase at the same time.
A sudden enhancement of the geomagnetic field strength occurred on the GOES-18 magnetometer
beginning atou 12:00 UT near local solar midnight in Aleutians and may have
begun the process leading to this earthquake.
The first notable aftershock of this earthquake in the Fox Islands occurred
as an M 3.9 at 14:34:20 UT, 14 minutes and 27 seconds after the mainshock.
This is exactly the time an ScS wave from 111 km depth (of mainshock) would
return to the 106 depth of the aftershock after reflection off the core-mantle
boundary (from travel time tables of Kennett and Engdahl, NEIC, 1991). It is likely it triggered this aftershock.
Today's event of M 6.5 in the Fox Islands occurred at the eighth node (45 degrees)
from the eye of Tropical Storm Dujuan at the time of occurrence and
at the fourth node (90 degrees) from Colombia, the fifth node (72 degrees) from
Chiapas, Mexico and may have been promoted by energy from those sources
as well.
O: 17SEP2026 14:19:54 52.8N 171.3W MB=6.5 NEIC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 17SEP2026 14:34:20 52.2N 171.0W MB=3.9 NEIC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
EMSC reported an M 3.4 in Northern California 6 minutes and 30 seconds later.
This event was not reported by NEIC and may have been an algorithmic error
mistaking a p-wave arrival for a local earthquake. The distance between
Northern California and the Fox Islands epicenter is 34 degrees. At a depth of
112 km for the Alaska event, the travel time between that hypocenter and
the reported earthquake in northern California of a p-wave (Travel time tables)
is 6 minutes and 30 seconds, so the p-wave would have been exactly coincidental
at the time of the purported M 3.6 there - an interesting coincidence - but
not proof of a triggered event without confirmation that the event in northern
California is not an AI error.
O: 17SEP2026 14:26:24 41.3N 122.4W MB=3.4 EMSC NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
The earthquake of M 6.5 in The Aleutians (see above) was preceded by an M 4.2 near Nelson, British Columbia, Canada.
NEIC reported this earthquakes was felt with intensity IV in British Columbia at Duck Lake and II in Nakusp, Salmo, Nelson, Cranbrook, and III in Vernon, Porthill, Idaho, and in Washington State in Curlew, Addy as well as in East Helena, Montana.
The last earthquake of M>=4.2 within about 200 km of this epicenter occurred
as an M 4.2 about 200 km southeast of today's epicenter on April 24, 2015, the only
such event in this area in the past 35 years. It occurred as a geomagnetic
storm was beginning (see above) and may have been promoted by the shockwave from that event.
This epicenter is at 103 degrees from the M 7.8 in Mindanao, Philipines of June 7, 2026,
the largest earthquake in the world this year and may have been promoted
by energy from that source.
O: 17SEP2026 12:31:37 49.7N 116.9W ML=4.2 EMSC BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in the South Atlantic Ocean was not felt in this remote area.
This epicenter is near the antipode of the origin point of Tropical Storm Dujuan in the area
east of Guam and may have been promoted by energy from that source. This summary
had projected this possibility as:
"TS DUJUAN (Tropical Depression 24W) continued north-east of Guam today with winds up to 75 kts. It is expected track to the west and then north over the next several days passing north of Guam on September 16-17, 2026 and then possibly encountering Honshu as a minor typhoon with winds up to 85 kts around September 20, 2026. These areas often see enhanced seismicity with strong ocean storms and this could be the case in this situation. The antipode near 20S 30W in the South Atlantic may see regional seismic enhancement at this time." (September 17, 2026)
This epicenter is at 143 degrees from Mindanao, Philippines and at the sixth node (60 degrees)
from Colombia and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 17SEP2026 06:48:41 22.6S 20.3W MB=5.0 EMSC SOUTH ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.6 in Southern San Francisco, California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern San Francisco, California in South San Francisco, Daly City, San Jose and Mount Hamilton.
O: 17SEP2026 03:07:43 37.3N 121.6W MD=2.6 EMSC NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 16SEP2026 14:54:16 37.7N 122.0W MD=2.2 EMSC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
O: 16SEP2026 19:15:55 37.7N 122.0W MD=2.0 EMSC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
NEIC reported an unusual earthquake of M 4.2 in southwestern Russia was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of southwestern Russia in Krasnodar at Novorossiysk, Gayduk, Gostagaevskaya.
This event occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by
tidal and/or geomagnetic stresses which maximize near this hour. Hostilities
in this area are currently active and may have destabilized regional faults
helping to trigger today's event.
The last earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter of M>=4.2 occurred
on February 9, 2026 as an M 4.8 in northern Turkey. At the time this summary noted:
"NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.8 in the Caucasus, Russia was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Caucasus, Russia at Krasnodar.
EMSC reported moderate to strong shaking in the Caucasus, Russia at Rayevskaya, Sukko, Verkhnebakanskiy, Gayduk, Anapskaya, Abrau-Dyurso, Anapa, Novorossiysk, Tsemdolina, Gostagayevskkaya, Myskhako, Tsibanobalka, among others.
This epicenter is at the fifth node (72 degrees) from Honshu and Kamchatka and at the fourth node (90 degrees)
from TC Mitchell and may have been promoted by energy from those sources." (February 8, 2026)
This epicenter is at 103 degrees from Colombia and at the fourth node from Flores
and Tropical Storm Dujuan and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 16SEP2026 22:31:17 45.1N 37.5E MB=4.2 EMSC SOUTHWESTERN RUSSIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.9 in northern Kansas was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of northern Kansas with IV in Kanasa at Bennington; III in Lidsbrg, Assaria, Salina.
This may have been precursory to the M 6.5 in the Fox Islands. Earthquakes
in this region of the U.S. Great Plains often precede strong earthquakes
in the Aleutians as noted previously in this summary.
O: 16SEP2026 21:50:57 38.6N 97.6W ML=2.9 EMSC KANSAS
NEIC reported a pair of earthquakes of M 5.1 in the area north of Guam in the Mariana Islands was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the area north of Guam in the Mariana Islands in Guam at Tamuning, Sant Rita, Yigo and in Tinian, Mariana Islands.
Tropical Storm Dujuan passed over the first of these at the time of its
occurrence and probably promoted its occurrence at this unusual epicenter
to the east of most regional activity. The last earthquake within about 200
km of the epicenter of that event with magnitude greater than M 5.1 occurred as an M 6.2
on April 2, 2024 the day after a major earthquake in Taiwan. At the time this
summary noted:
"A strong earthquake also occurred today southeast of Taiwan in the area of the
Northern Mariana Islands. NEIC reported this event of M 6.2 was felt with maximun intensity
IV ENE of Saipan. Like the earthquake in Taiwan, this event lies about 10 degrees north of
the local geomagnetic equator and was probably promoted by strong ionospheric
currents following the geomagnetic storm of late March, 2024. This is the
strongest earthquake in the Mariana Islands within about 200 km of this
epicenter since an M 6.4 on August 28, 2018 and prior to that an M 6.6 on February 5, 2005." (April 2, 2024)
It is likely that the passage of Tropical Storm Dujuan near this epicenter
helped promote this earthquake and it had been anticipated in this and
in previous issues of this summary that this could occur as:
"TS DUJUAN 2026-09-16 00:00 UT 15.5N 148.5E 45 kts East of Guam
TS DUJUAN (Tropical Depression) 24W continued east of Guam today with winds up to 45 kts. It is expected track to the west and then north over the next several days passing north of Guam on September 16, 2026 and then possibly encountering Honshu as a minor typhoon with winds up to 85 kts around September 20, 2026. These areas often see enhanced seismicity with strong ocean storms and this could be the case in this situation. The antipode near 15S 32W in the South Atlantic is unlikely to see enhanced seismicity with this storm." (September 16, 2026)
O: 16SEP2026 08:37:00 14.4N 146.9E MB=5.1 EMSC ROTA REGION, N. MARIANA ISLAND
O: 16SEP2026 18:06:38 14.3N 145.4E Mw=5.1 EMSC ROTA REGION, N. MARIANA ISLANDS
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in Colombia was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Colombia in Rereira, Risaralda, Retiro, Antioquia and Cali Valle del Cauca.
O: 17SEP2026 01:12:48 4.5N 76.8W MB=4.4 EMSC COLOMBIA
O: 16SEP2026 20:12:51 4.5N 76.8W Mw=5.0 EMSC COLOMBIA
O: 16SEP2026 20:54:58 4.5N 76.8W mb=4.7 EMSC COLOMBIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in Honshu, Japan was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Honshu, Japan with IV in Kashiwa, Chiba and III in Saitama, Tokyo, Kanagawa, Fukushima, Ibaraki Prefectures.
O: 16SEP2026 15:07:36 36.0N 140.2E MB=5.0 EMSC NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAP
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.2-3.5 off the coast of Northern California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of off the coast of Northern California in Whitethorn, Ferndale, Petrolia, Fortuna, Rio Dell, Scotia.
O: 16SEP2026 14:34:52 40.3N 124.5W MW=3.2 EMSC OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 16SEP2026 14:34:52 40.3N 124.5W MW=3.5 WEUC OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 16SEP2026 23:39:06 40.3N 124.5W MD=2.2 EMSC OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.5 in Ethiopia was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Ethiopia in Addis Ababa.
This epicenter is at 103 degrees from Tropical Storm Dujuan and may have
been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 16SEP2026 12:33:24 9.1N 40.1E MB=4.5 EMSC ETHIOPIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.8 in Nevada was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Nevada in Gerlach and Gardnerville and possibly in Sparks, Nevada.
This earthquake occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted
by tidal and/or geomagnetic stresses.
O: 16SEP2026 07:17:24 40.6N 119.6W ML=3.8 EMSC NEVADA
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL STORM DUJUAN (DEPRESSION 24W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS DUJUAN 2026-09-17 00:00 UT 21.5N 148.5E 75 kts North-East of Guam
TS DUJUAN (Tropical Depression 24W) continued north-east of Guam today with winds up to 75 kts. It is expected track to the west and then north over the next several days passing north of Guam on September 16-17, 2026 and then possibly encountering Honshu as a minor typhoon with winds up to 85 kts around September 20, 2026. These areas often see enhanced seismicity with strong ocean storms and this could be the case in this situation. The antipode near 20S 30W in the South Atlantic may see regional seismic enhancement at this time.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 16, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
There were no solar flares of C- class or higher reported by SWPC on September 16, 2026.
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: active September 18 unsettled September 19 minor storms September 17. Solar M-flare chance: 5% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 9, high: 14, mid-latitude: 7, time of max k: 14:00-16:00 UT; Max k: 5 Global Kp 3.67 0000-0300, September 16; Sunspot Number: 23; Radio Flux: 100 September 15, 2026.
GFZ reported the Kp30 index was generally quiet on September 16. Maximum since the last report
was 3.33 pm September 17 at 0200-0230 UT. No geomagnetic storms were reported.
September 16, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
The proton storm of September 14, 2026 largely subsided and then ended early
on September 15, 2026. Proton flux levels are near background at this time.
This proton storm (along with Tropical Storm Dujuan) is likely to promote
enhanced seismicity in the area of Guam and the northern Mariana Islands. This
specificity of effects with proton storms was emphasized in this summary
when the last strong proton storm on July 31, 2026 as:
"A proton storm commenced on July 30, 2026 at 17:30 UT and reached its maximum intensity at high energy levels around 18:00 UT. It continued at 10MeV warning levels
or higher through the first half of July 31. This is the first measurable
proton storm since July 4, 2026 but that storm did not exceed the SWPC 10 MeV warning threshold.
The last storm to do that occurred on May 27-28, 2026 and was about the same
intensity as today's. Today's proton storm occurred at the same time as
an M2.0 solar flare but may not be related to that flare as it takes time
for solar protons to arrive in the vicinity of the earth. A series of earthquakes
did occur during the solar flare and at the commencement of the proton storm
however. These included the strongest earthquake of the day - an M 5.9 in the State
of Yap, Micronesia at the time the storm maximized. It is likely this
earthquake in Micronesia was triggered by the proton storm.
Other earthquakes near the proton storm commencement occurred as an M 2.3 felt
in Los Angeles, California and events of M 5.2 in the Kermadec Islands swarm
and of M 4.3 in western Xizang, China.
O: 30JUL2026 17:55:59 11.6N 139.9E MB=5.9 EMSC STATE OF YAP, MICRONESIA
O: 30JUL2026 17:48:12 31.5S 177.9W MB=5.2 EMSC KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
NEIC reported this earthquake in Micronesia may have been felt lightly in Colonia, Micronesia.
The last earthquake near Yap, Micronesia of M>=5.9 occurred in the middle of
a strong proton storm, larger than today's as well on February 14, 2024 with M 6.0.
The strongest earthquake in the area of Yap in the past 25 years occurred
on August 13-14, 2010 with M 6.9 and with a strong series of aftershocks.
These events occurred during a strong proton storm that exceeded the SWPC 10 MeV warning
threshold as well. As strong proton storms are unusual, this may be significant in terms of
seismic triggering in the area." (July 31, 2026)
GFZ reported a moderate geomagnetic storm occurred at the end of the proton
storm with Hp30 indicies reaching 4.333 around 23:00 on September 15 to 00:30 UT
on September 16, 2026. Elevated geomagnetic disturbance continued through 03:00 September 16.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL STORM DUJUAN (DEPRESSION 24W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS DUJUAN 2026-09-16 00:00 UT 15.5N 148.5E 45 kts East of Guam
TS DUJUAN (Tropical Depression) 24W continued east of Guam today with winds up to 45 kts. It is expected track to the west and then north over the next several days passing north of Guam on September 16, 2026 and then possibly encountering Honshu as a minor typhoon with winds up to 85 kts around September 20, 2026. These areas often see enhanced seismicity with strong ocean storms and this could be the case in this situation. The antipode near 15S 32W in the South Atlantic is unlikely to see enhanced seismicity with this storm.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 15, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
There were no solar flares of C- class or higher reported by SWPC on September 14, 2026.
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: active September 18 minor storms September 16-17. Solar M-flare chance: 5% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 8, high: 7, mid-latitude: 7, time of max k: 22:00-24:00 UT; Max k: 4 Global Kp 3.33 2200-2400, September 15; Sunspot Number: 23; Radio Flux: 106 September 15, 2026.
September 15, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
GFZ reported that the Hp30 index reached a maximum of 4.66 beginning about 22:35 UT on September 14, 2026. on September 14. There
This is a geomagnetic disturbance and may have been accompanied by a geomagnetic
field strength spike and accompanying series of separated earthquakes at the same time (see below). There were no solar flares of C-class
or higher reported by SWPC on September 14, 2026.
A strong excursion in the geomagnetic field strength was registered at GOES-19 magnetometer (at 72 West longitude)
beginning about 22:35 UT September 14, 2026. An arcjet maneuver was performed and normal
operations resumed by 23:30 UT. This anomalous geomagnetic field behavior
was accompanied by a serits of moderate earthquakes beginning with an M 4.6 in Colombia;
an M 4.4 in Chiapas, Mexico; an M 4.4 in the Banda Sea and an M 4.9 in Cook Strait,
New Zealand at the beginning of this electromagnetic pulse. The occurrence
of three earthquakes of M>=4.4 within about 2 minutes of each other at different
epicenters around the world is unusual and is probably promoted by an external
cause (such as this geomagnetic field strength spike).
The first of these in Colombia was nearly at the longitude of the magnetometer
when this spike occurred and may be related. The earthquake of Cook Strait,
New Zealand was widely felt. GeoNet reported the following parameters
for this earthquake:
O: 14SEP2026 22:44:48 40.3S 174.2E ML=4.8 GEONET Felt with moderate intensity in the area of Southern North Island, New Zealand and northern South Island. 5814 reports of felt events were made of which 3322 reported weak and 2186 light intensity with 279 reports of moderate shaking and 21 with strong and 0 severe and 6 with extreme intensity came from the area.
O: 14SEP2026 22:38:59 4.5N 76.8W ML=4.6 EMSC COLOMBIA
O: 14SEP2026 22:43:04 14.6N 93.3W ML=4.4 EMSC OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
O: 14SEP2026 22:43:20 5.8S 130.1E ML=4.4 EMSC BANDA SEA
O: 14SEP2026 22:44:46 40.3S 174.2E ML=4.9 EMSC COOK STRAIT, NEW ZEALAND
O: 14SEP2026 23:09:50 8.8S 105.6E ML=4.4 EMSC SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
A moderate proton storm began on September 14, 2026 near 03:00 UT and was continuing
at this writing. Seismicity accompanying the beginning of this storm (which was
gradual) include events in the Northern Mid-Atlantic (M 5.4), New Guinea (M 4.5), Oaxaca. Mexico (M 4.0); Argentina (M 4.4);
and the Kuril Islands (M 4.2) among others. A sudden loss of electron flux
accompanied this proton storm reaching its lowest flux around 07:40 UT.
A moderate M 5.5 earthquake south of Java hit near the height of this proton
storm. This earthquake was reported by EMSC as possibly being felt in Ilir Barat, Indonesia. Other seismicity at the peak of this proton storm included an M 4.5 in
eastern Honshu, Japan.
O: 14SEP2026 09:27:41 8.4S 105.9E ML=5.5 EMSC SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
O: 14SEP2026 07:33:02 37.1N 142.3E ML=4.5 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
O: 14SEP2026 06:19:11 5.1S 145.6E ML=4.5 EMSC NEW GUINEA, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT (DEPRESSION 14E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS NORBERT 2026-09-15 00:00 UT 20.4N 142.4W 45 kts West of Baja California, Mexico
TS Norbert (14E) continued today west of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 45 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate local seismic hazard to the region at this time but may track into Hawaii later this week as a weak storm. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 20S 36E) where little seismic enhancement is possible at this time.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TD 24W 2026-09-15 00:00 UT 14.5N 149.5E 40 kts East of Guam
Tropical Depression 24W formed east of Guam today with winds up to 40 kts. It is expected track to the west and then north over the next several days passing near Guam on September 15-16, 2026 and then possibly encountering Honshu as a minor typhoon with winds up to 80 kts around September 20, 2026. These areas often see enhanced seismicity with strong ocean storms and this could be the case in this situation. The antipode near 15S 32W in the South Atlantic is unlikely to see enhanced seismicity with this storm.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TD 15E 2026-09-15 00:00 UT 15.8N 123.0W 35 kts Southwest of Baja California, Mexico
Tropical Depression 15E continued southwest of Baja California today with winds up to 35 kts. It is not expected to enhance regional seismicity at this time. The antipode near 16S 56E is unlikely to see enhanced seismicity at this time.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 14, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
There were no solar flares of C- class or higher reported by SWPC on September 14, 2026.
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: active September 15 minor storms September 16-17. Solar M-flare chance: 5% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 11, high: 15, mid-latitude: 8, time of max k: 13:00-15:00 UT; Max k: 5 Global Kp 4.00 1800-2000, September 14; Sunspot Number: 51; Radio Flux: 104 September 14, 2026.
September 14, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
The new moon arrived on September 11, 2026 at 03:27 UT. Areas which are anti-solar (local solar midnight) are near 52 W and those sub-solar at this time are near 127 E longitudes. In the west these include areas of the Atlantic Ocean including Iceland and eastern Caribbean while in the east much of the area from Kamchatka south to Japan and portions of Eastern New Guinea, Mindanao, Philippines, central Indonesia, Taiwan, Macquarie and New South Wales, Australia are near these longitudes and may see enhanced seismicity in the next week. A moderately strong earthquake is possible after the current geomagnetic storm ceases in this area during this time. Other areas may also see tidal triggering which is most likely near local solar midnight and local solar noon.
GFZ reported that the Hp30 index did not exceed 3 on September 13. There
are no geomagnetic storms currently active.
A moderate proton storm began on September 14, 2026 near 03:00 UT and was continuing
at this writing. Seismicity accompanying the beginning of this storm (which was
gradual) include events in the Northern Mid-Atlantic (M 5.4), New Guinea (M 4.5), Oaxaca. Mexico (M 4.0); Argentina (M 4.4);
and the Kuril Islands (M 4.2) among others. A sudden loss of electron flux
accompanied this proton storm reaching its lowest flux around 07:40 UT.
A moderate M 5.5 earthquake south of Java hit near the height of this proton
storm. This earthquake was reported by EMSC as possibly being felt in Ilir Barat, Indonesia. Other seismicity at the peak of this proton storm included an M 4.5 in
eastern Honshu, Japan.
O: 14SEP2026 09:27:41 8.4S 105.9E ML=5.5 EMSC SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
O: 14SEP2026 07:33:02 37.1N 142.3E ML=4.5 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
O: 14SEP2026 06:19:11 5.1S 145.6E ML=4.5 EMSC NEW GUINEA, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.4 in the Northern Mid-Atlantic Ocean Ridge which occurred within a couple
of minutes of local solar midnight and concurrent with the beginning of the
proton storm. It was probably triggered by stresses associated with the
storm as well as by tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. The last
earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter in the north Atlantic Ridge
with M>=5.4 occurred as an M 6.6 on March 21, 2026 and prior to that an M 5.4 on May 30, 2020.
At the time of the March, 2026 event this summary noted:
"A strong G3 geomagnetic storm occurred early on March 22. A second similar
storm occurred later in the UT day of March 22 which reach high latitude
K-index of 8 about midday (UT). Storms of this
intensity can affect power systems on the sunlit side of the earth and interfere with
satellite communications and navigation. Aurora are likely tonight as far
to the south as Illinois and Oregon in the U.S. The sudden commencement
of storms such as this can trigger enhanced seismicity as well. Among
events associated with this storm was an M 6.6 in the South Shetland
Islands of the Atlantic and an M 6.7 in the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
...
An earthquake of M 6.7 occurred today in the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge. It was not reported
felt in this remote epicentral area and no tsunami was expected nor observed.
...
This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter in
the North Atlantic Ridge in more than 35 years. An M 6.4 hit near this
epicenter on June 10, 1991 the only recent comparable event. The only
earthquakes of M>=6.7 in this area in the historical record occurred
on March 26, 1980 (M 6.8) and on January 9, 1922 (M 7.1) making this a
significant regional earthquake.
It occurred near local solar noon at a longitude which saw the maximum
tidal stress with the new moon of March 19, 2026 ..." (March 21, 2026)
This epicenter is at 103 degrees from the current position of Hurricane Lowell
which is dissipating in the North Pacific northwest of Hawaii at this time.
The last notice in this summary regarding Hurricane Lowell read:
"Hurricane Lowell continued today Northwest of Hawaii in the North Pacific with winds up to 55 kts. It is expected dissipate in the next day. This storm is antipodal to the southern Africa near 29S 10E - a non seismic area near Botswana and northern South Africa. Enhanced seismicity at 103 and 144 degrees from Hurricane Lowell has been noted and could also continue." (September 12, 2026)
This epicenter in the North Atlantic is also at the 10th node (36 degrees) from
Colombia and at the eighth node (45 degrees) from Chiapas, Mexico and may have
been affected by energy from those sources.
O: 14SEP2026 02:56:17 25.5N 45.4W ML=5.4 EMSC NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
NEIC reported a pair of moderate earthquakes of M 4.5 and M 4.0 in Northeastern Iran was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Northeastern Iran
Like the earthquake in the Northern Mid-Atlantic (see above) these epicenters
in Northeastern Iran are located at 102-103 degrees from the position of
Hurricane Lowell at the time of their occurrence and were probably promoted
by energy from that source. They are also at the fifth node (72 degrees)
from the Flores Sea.
O: 14SEP2026 01:38:55 35.8N 58.7E ML=4.5 EMSC NORTHEASTERN IRAN
O: 14SEP2026 02:11:13 35.6N 58.6E ML=4.0 EMSC NORTHEASTERN IRAN
NEIC reported an earthquakes of M 2.5 and M 2.5 in the San Francisco Bay area, California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the San Francisco Bay area, California in Palo Alto, Redwood City, Atherton, Portola Valley, and II in Menlo Park, San Carlos and Belmont among others.
This first event occurred near local solar noon and may have been promoted by
tidal stresses which maximize near this hour. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II in California at Lodi, Redwood City and Stockton. This continues the resurgence
of minor earthquakes in the area following a brief period of quiescence.
EMSC reported these events were felt lightly in West Menlo Park and Redwood City.
These epicenters are at the seventh node (52 degrees) from Colombia and may
have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 13SEP2026 22:06:06 37.9N 121.8W MD=2.5 EMSC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
O: 14SEP2026 00:44:10 37.4N 122.2W MD=2.5 EMSC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.0 in Hawaii was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Hawaii with IV in Pahala; III in Naalehu and II in Kailua Kona, Captain Cook, Honaynau, Volcano, Mountain View, Hilo, Honolulu and Holualoa among others.
This is the strongest earthquake in Hawaii since a series of tropical cyclones
including Lowell and Karina have caused considerable damage in that State.
Volcanic eruption also resumed at Kilauea in the latest episode. The last
earthquake in Hawaii of M>=4 was an M 4.1 on August 17, 2026 following an M 5.2 on
August 12, 2026. At the time this summary noted it as:
"NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in Hawaii was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Hawaii in Papaikou, Hilo, Naalehu, Kamuela and Volcano.
Hurricane Lala passed over this epicenter two days ago and it may have been promoted by stresses from that storm.
Seismic enhancement had been expected with this storm landfall in Hawaii by
this summary." (August 17, 2026)
and
"Two unusual earthquakes accompanied the new moon and solar eclipse today.
These were an M 5.2 south of Hawaii near the Loi'hi Seamount (now called the Kama'ehuakanaloa undersea volcano) and volcanic center
and an M 4.6 in southern Australia.
...
The earthquake in Hawaii followed an uptick in activity at the Loi'hi Seamount
starting on August 10. NEIC reported the M 5.2 was felt with intensity IV in Hawaii at Laupahoehoe; III in Pahala, ?Honomu, Hawaii National Park, Volcano and II in Mountain View, Honolulu, Keaau, Captain Cook, Hilo, Pahoa, Papaikou, Kailua Kona, Naalehu, Pepeekeo.
The last earthquake near Loi'hi with M>5.2 was an
M 6.2 on October 10, 2021, the only such earthquake in that region in the
past 35 years. Earthquakes of M 5.2 were also ocated near this epicenter
on June 5, 2013; September 13, 2001 and December 9, 1991." (August 12, 2026)
Hawaii is located at the sixth node (60.0 degrees) from Chiapas, Mexico
and energy from that source may be helping promote the current activity
in Hawaii.
O: 13SEP2026 18:00:23 19.2N 155.5W ML=4.0 EMSC ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.5 in Northern California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Northern California in Willits.
O: 13SEP2026 13:55:36 39.4N 123.3W MD=2.5 EMSC NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 14SEP2026 00:37:52 39.3N 123.2W MD=2.2 EMSC NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.8 south of Java, Indonesia was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of south of Java, Indonesia in Sidomulyo, Singosari, Kediri, Kute.
O: 14SEP2026 01:42:08 9.4S 112.8E MB=4.8 EMSC SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.6 in Northern Chile was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Northern Chile in Tarapaca at Iquique.
O: 13SEP2026 12:55:23 20.7S 70.0W ML=4.6 EMSC TARAPACA, CHILE
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT (DEPRESSION 14E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS NORBERT 2026-09-14 00:00 UT 19.2N 135.8W 45 kts West of Baja California, Mexico
TS Norbert (14E) continued today west of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 45 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate local seismic hazard to the region at this time but may track into Hawaii later this week as a weak storm. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 19S 45E) where little seismic enhancement is possible at this time.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TD 15E 2026-09-14 00:00 UT 16.6N 118.5W 40 kts South of Baja California, Mexico
Tropical Depression 15E formed south of Baja California today with winds up to 40 kts. It is not expected to enhance regional seismicity at this time. The antipode near 16S 62E could see moderate enhancement in the next several days.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 13, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
8610 1912 1945 2019 C1.4 (September 13, 2026) 4.7E-03
Costa Rica M 3.7 19:12 UT
Taiwan M 4.2 19:21 UT
Chiapas M 4.0 19:35 UT
Argentina M 4.7 19:40 UT
Loyalty Is. M 4.9 19:48 UT
Oaxaca M 4.0 20:16 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: unsettled September 14 active September 15 minor storms September 16. Solar M-flare chance: 10% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 6, high: 6, mid-latitude: 4, time of max k: 13:00-15:00 UT; Max k: 3 Global Kp 3.00 0300-0600, September 13; Sunspot Number: 77; Radio Flux: 114 September 13, 2026.
September 13, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
The new moon arrived on September 11, 2026 at 03:27 UT. Areas which are anti-solar (local solar midnight) are near 52 W and those sub-solar at this time are near 127 E longitudes. In the west these include areas of the Atlantic Ocean including Iceland and eastern Caribbean while in the east much of the area from Kamchatka south to Japan and portions of Eastern New Guinea, Mindanao, Philippines, central Indonesia, Taiwan, Macquarie and New South Wales, Australia are near these longitudes and may see enhanced seismicity in the next week. A moderately strong earthquake is possible after the current geomagnetic storm ceases in this area during this time. Other areas may also see tidal triggering which is most likely near local solar midnight and local solar noon." (June 12-14, 2026)
It was a relatively quiet day in global seismicity. Many of the larger events
were associated closely with tropical storms. An M 5.1, for example in Kyushu,
Japan occurred at an epicenter which Tropical Storm Krovanh passed over on
September 7-8, 2026. At the time this summary noted it as:
"TD KROVANH 2026-09-07 00:00 UT 28.2N 132.9E 40 kts East of Ryukyu Islands
TS Krovanh continued today in the region east of the Ryukyu Islands, Japan with winds up to 40 kts. This storm will be encountering the Ryukyu Islands of Japan around September 7 where some enhanced seismicity is possible near landfall." (September 9, 2026)
This epicenter was at the fourth node (90 degrees) from Hurricane Norbert and
at the seventh node (52 degrees) from Hurricane Lowell when the earthquake
occurred and was likely promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 12SEP2026 20:32:58 29.3N 130.5E MW=5.1 EMSC RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.8 in Greece was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Greece in Lixourion, Kefallinia, Ayios, Dimitrios Kentriki, Katastarion, Valsamata, Poros, Planos, Argostolion, Nidrion, Kalamakion and Mpoikhali, Zakinthos.
EMSC reported strong shaking in Greece at Lixouri, Soullaroi, Megas Lakkos, Argostolion, Kefalonia, Dilinata, Vlachata, Valsamata, Sami, Ithaki, Poros, Katastarion, Alonia, Makhairadhon, Ayios Kirikos, Planos, Mouzaki, Gaitanion, Bokhali, Zakynthos, among others.
This epicenter is at 103 degrees from Flores Sea, Indonesia and at the fourth node
(90 degrees) from Colombia and may have been promoted by energy from those
sources.
O: 12SEP2026 17:51:43 38.2N 20.2E MW=4.8 EMSC GREECE
An unfelt earthquake of M 4.9 in the South Sandwich Islands was also located
near 103 degrees from Flores and at 143 degrees from Hurricane Lowell and
may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 12SEP2026 11:05:46 56.3S 26.8W MB=4.9 EMSC SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
A double series of light earthquakes occurred in the area near Los Angeles, California today.
A series near Santa Catalina and s series in southern Los Angeles appear to
suggest regional stresses which could lead to a larger regional earthquake
in the near future.
NEIC reported the earthquakes in Los Angeles were felt with intensity II-III
in Hawthorne, Bellflower, South Gate, Los Angeles, Torrance, Compton and II in Huntington Park, Carson, Huntington Beach, Santa Ana and Bell among others.
O: 12SEP2026 07:34:55 33.9N 118.3W ML=2.6 EMSC GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIF.
O: 12SEP2026 07:38:05 33.9N 118.3W ML=2.1 EMSC GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIF.
O: 12SEP2026 09:04:42 33.9N 118.3W ML=2.2 EMSC GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIF.
O: 12SEP2026 11:32:19 33.9N 118.3W ML=2.6 EMSC GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIF.
The earthquakes in the Gulf of Santa Catalina included an M 3.4 (NEIC) which
is a significant regional event. NEIC reported they were felt with intensity
II in Southern California in San Diego, Laguna Niguel, Aliso Viejo, Irvine, Vista, San Clemente and in Tijuana Baja, California, Mexico.
The last earthquake of M>=3.4 in the Gulf of Santa Catalina, California occurred
as an M 3.4 on February 23, 2026 and on March 31, 2025. The last event of
larger magnitude in this area was an M 3.6 on October 21, 2024. At the time
this summary noted it as:
"An M 3.6 was also felt in the area of the Gulf of Santa Catalina and San Clemente Island, Southern California today. NEIC reported this event with intensity up to III in Los Angeles and San Clemente, California.
Intensity II-III was also reported in Southern California from Los Angeles, Redondo Beach, Torrance, Bellflower, Los Alamitos, Seal Beach, and South Pasadena. Light foreshocks also occurred today with larger of M 3.2 reported felt with intensity II-III in Southern California at Long Beach, South El Monte, Mission Viejo, Fullerton and Orange.
EMSC reported moderate shaking and earthquake noise in Southern California at Capostrano Beach, Oceanside, Irvine, Midway City, Cypress, Los Angeles, Hesperia." (October 21, 2024)
These epicenters are at 120.0 degrees (node 3) from Flores Sea and were probably
promoted by energy from that source.
O: 12SEP2026 11:03:24 33.2N 118.1W ML=2.5 EMSC GULF OF SANTA CATALINA, CALIF.
O: 12SEP2026 11:13:57 33.2N 118.1W ML=3.3 EMSC GULF OF SANTA CATALINA, CALIF.
O: 12SEP2026 11:13:57 33.2N 118.1W ML=3.4 EMSC GULF OF SANTA CATALINA, CALIF.
O: 12SEP2026 12:26:53 33.2N 118.1W ML=2.0 EMSC GULF OF SANTA CATALINA, CALIF.
O: 12SEP2026 12:45:34 33.2N 118.1W ML=2.0 EMSC GULF OF SANTA CATALINA, CALIF.
O: 12SEP2026 11:11:58 33.3N 118.1W ML=3.0 EMSC GULF OF SANTA CATALINA, CALIF.
O: 13SEP2026 03:47:00 33.8N 118.7W ML=2.4 EMSC CHANNEL ISLANDS REG., CALIFORN
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.8 in Colombia was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Colombia in Pereora Risaralda and Salento, Quiindio.
O: 12SEP2026 11:16:16 4.4N 76.6W MB=4.8 EMSC COLOMBIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.5 in Peru was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Peru in Vista Alegre Ica.
O: 12SEP2026 08:46:38 14.5S 76.2W MB=4.5 EMSC NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.0 in Panama was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Panama in Volcan, Boquete, Bajo Boquete, Jaramillo Centro.
O: 12SEP2026 23:38:30 8.7N 82.8W ML=4.0 EMSC PANAMA-COSTA RICA BORDER REGIO
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.3 in Kyrgyzstan was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Kyrgyzstan in Kochkor-Ata and in Uzbekistan at Tashkent, Uchqurghon Shahri.
O: 12SEP2026 09:47:35 41.3N 72.1E ML=4.3 EMSC KYRGYZSTAN
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 3.7 in Poland was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Poland in Sulmierzyce.
O: 12SEP2026 08:41:50 51.2N 19.1E ML=3.7 EMSC POLAND
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT (DEPRESSION 14E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS NORBERT 2026-09-13 00:00 UT 18.1N 132.0W 55 kts West of of Baja California, Mexico
TS Norbert (14E) continued today west of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 55 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate local seismic hazard to the region at this time but may track into Hawaii later this week as a weak storm. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 18S 48E) where little seismic enhancement is possible at this time.
A tropical cyclone may be forming south of Baja California. This system is currently located at 17N 117W with winds up to 35 kts and is not expected to enhance regional seismicity at this time. The antipode at 14S 66E could see moderate enhancement in the next several days.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 12, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
8500 1709 1720 1724 C5.8 (September 12, 2026) 2.3E-03
Greece M 4.8 17:51 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: unsettled September 13 and 15 active September 14. Solar M-flare chance: 10% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 7, high: 12, mid-latitude: 6, time of max k: 12:00-14:00 UT; Max k: 5 Global Kp 3.00 0600-0900, September 12; Sunspot Number: 87; Radio Flux: 109 September 12, 2026.
The Hp30 index (GFZ) reached a maximum value of 3.33 on September 12, 2026 between 05:00 and 05:30 UT.
Active conditions in the geomagnetic field are likely on September 14, but
not storms are expected for the next three days.
September 12, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
The new moon arrived on September 11, 2026 at 03:27 UT. Areas which are anti-solar (local solar midnight) are near 52 W and those sub-solar at this time are near 127 E longitudes. In the west these include areas of the Atlantic Ocean including Iceland and eastern Caribbean while in the east much of the area from Kamchatka south to Japan and portions of Eastern New Guinea, Mindanao, Philippines, central Indonesia, Taiwan, Macquarie and New South Wales, Australia are near these longitudes and may see enhanced seismicity in the next week. A moderately strong earthquake is possible after the current geomagnetic storm ceases in this area during this time. Other areas may also see tidal triggering which is most likely near local solar midnight and local solar noon." (June 12-14, 2026)
A moderate excursion in the geomagnetic field strength was recorded on
September 11 starting about 14:57 UT. An arcjet manevuer corrected the
satellite position and normal operations resumed about 16:00 UT.
An earthquake of M 2.3 occurred at the start of this geomagnetic excursion
in the area of Greater Los Angeles, California with M 2.3. It was followed two minutes later
by an M 2.1 in Utah and an M 3.1 near local solar midnight in Mindanao, Philippines and at 15:44 by and M 5.1 south of the Kermadec Islands.
These events may have been promoted by this geomagnetic excursion.
O: 11SEP2026 14:57:27 33.9N 118.3W ML=2.3 EMSC GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALI
O: 11SEP2026 14:59:51 37.4N 113.5W ML=2.1 EMSC UTAH
O: 11SEP2026 15:51:39 5.2N 125.4E ML=4.0 EMSC MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
The GFZ Hp30 index was mostly at quiet levels today occasionally reaching
its highest valur of 3.66 around 05:00-05:30 UT on September 11. The geomagnetic storm is over and
elevated seismicity is expected in the next several
days as electrons reform ionospheric ring currents which can induce
telluric currents and probably help promote seismicity in many areas.
A minor proton storm began around 18:00 UT on September 11 and peaked about 21:30 UT.
An earthquake of M 6.5 in Southern Sumatra - the strongest earthquake in the
world since an M 7.5 in Colombia a month ago on August 10, 2025 - occurred at the peak of this storm and
may have been promoted by energy associated with it.
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.5 earthquake at 310 km
depth beneath Southern Sumatra Indonesia. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II-III in Java at Cikeruh, Sukabumi, Jakarta, Bogor, Malang, Lembang, Bantul, Yogyakarta, Palembang, Sumatra, and Pamulang.
EMSC reported light to moderate shaking in Java at Jakarta, Bogor, Cianjur, Kebontiwu, Biha, Ilir Barat, Palembang, Karangbadar Kidul, Kebumen, Pule, Kediri, Padang, Tabing and in Singapore neary 800 km from the epicenter.
The last earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter in Java with M>=6.5
occurred as an M 6.6 at a deep focus of 614 km ten years ago on October 19, 2015.
The only other such event in the area in the past 35 years was an M 7.4 at 280 km depth on
August 8, 2007. In 2016 this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake of the day was an M 6.6 south of Java, Indonesia. This
continues the series of large quakes in New Guinea moving westward through Indonesia.
Today's event was at a deep focus and was therefore widely felt with light intensity
over a very broad area. In Java, Indonesia it was felt with intensity II-III in Bekasi, Jakarta, Pamulang, Padalarang, Bandung, Bogor, and Surabaya; in Yogyakarta at Depok and Kashian; in Bali at Tabanan, Kuta, Denpasar.
BMG, the local seismic network, reported it was felt with intensity II-III in Jakarta, Padang, Malimping, Sanglah, Pacitan Trenggalek and Bantul, Java, Indonesia.
Deep focus earthquakes are often promoted by full moon tidal stresses as noted
previously in this summary. This epicenter is also at about 15 degrees south
of the local geomagnetic equator and was probably promoted the the last geomagnetic
storm as suggested in previous issues of this summary:
"Some seismicity may be triggered with this geomagnetic storm with
maximum likely strong events three to five days following the end of this geomagnetic storm (likely October 18-22) especially about 10-15 degrees
from the geomagnetic equator and at high auroral latitudes." (October 16-18, 2016)
As it lies within about 20 degrees longitude of the maximum tidal stress from
the full moon, tidal promotion is also likely as noted in the previous report" (October 17, 2016)
This earthquake has several unusual aspects to it. It occurred about 200 km northeast of the eruption of Kratatoa
a week ago but due to its position and depth is unlikely to have been primarily
triggered by that event. It is also near the maximum tidal stress for the
new moon today (see above). Tidal triggering is likely at least in some part
for this earthquake at this time. The last earthquake in the world of larger
magnitude than M 6.5 occurred three weeks ago as an M 6.7 in Central Peru
so it is a significant event. It occurred within several hundred km of the
true antipode of the M 7.4 in Colombia at August 10, 2026. The antipodal
relation with Colombia of this epicenter and the Krakatoa eruption cannot
be dissmissed as a possible trigger. This was discussed in detail in past
issues of this summary but is worthwhile to recall here. When the Colombia earthquake (and Krakatoa eruption)
occurred this summary noted in part:
"A strong volcanic eruption began today in Krakatoa, Indonesia. Krakatoa Volcano is located at 6.1S 105.4E. This location was at 103 degrees from Hurricane Lowell (13N 154W) when the eruption began. This location is also within about 150
km of the antipode of the M 7.5 in Colombia of August 10, 2026. At the time
this summary noted:
"An earthquake of M 4.8 was located in southern
Sumatra aboutthree hours after the Colombia mainshock within 100 km of the
exact antipode of the Colombia event. Events are antipodal if their longitudes
add to 180 degrees (in this case the longitude of Colombia is given as 77.6W
and that of Sumatra quake as 102.4E - a sum of exactly 180) and their signed
latitudes sum to zero (in this case the longitude of the Colombia event is 4.6N
and of the Sumatra event 5.5S - a difference of 0.9 degrees about 100 km
off of exact antipodal events). Geometric focusing at the antipode of a
major quake can produce seismic wave amplitudes which may be strong enough
to trigger antipodal activity as it appears to have done in this case." (November 15, 2004)
The last earthquake in Colombia of M>6.5 occurred 13 years ago on August 13, 2013.
At the time the relation to Sumatra was discussed as:
"This epicenter (in Colombia) is at the exact antipode of an M 5.3 which hit south of Sumatra two days ago and may
have been promoted or triggered by that event. Frequent readers of this
summary know that two epicenters are antipodal if their latitudes are
the same and in opposite hemispheres (6N and 6S in the current pair)
and their longitudes add to 180 and are in opposite hemispheres (78W and
102E in the current pair). Further activity in Sumatra near this epicenter
is likely in the next several days. After this was written an M 4.6 did
occur in this region of Sumatra. The earthquake off Panama is the
strongest to occur in the world since an M 7.2 in the South Sandwich Islands
of July 15, 2013, a month ago. It is also the largset within 200 km of this
epicenter to occur since events of M 7.2 on November 15, 2004; October 18, 1992 and November 19, 1991.
The 10- to 11-year cycle here is probably not coincidental but is forced
by solar activity also on an 11-year cycle." (August 13, 2013)
After a moderate earthquake in Sumatra occurred yesterday this summary discussed
the relation between Sumatra and Colombia earthquakes (see this issue below).
In particular it is worthwhile to note the antipodal relation of today's
event in Colombia with the earlier M 5.3 in Sumatra. Within error limits
imposed by depth and size of the rupture zone, these two are very nearly
exactly antipodal (compare 5S and 5N and 103E and 76W for antipodality." (August 10-11, 2026)
This summary discussed the likelihood of enhanced volcanism in Krakatoa
related to earthquakes in Venezuela (and Colombia) in previous issues.
When an M 7.5 hit Venezuela on June 24, 2026 it was noted:
"With the antipodal (to Venezeula) event of M 5.2-5.6 today south of Java, Indonesia
it is prudent to reexamine the last earthquake in Venezuela of the size
(M 7.5) of the event of June 25. This earthquake occurred on March 26, 1812 and
was associated in time with major earthquakes in New Madrid, Missouri (M 8.1)
and in the Los Angeles, California (December 8, 1812 and December 21, 1812 M 7.0) region of the same year.
What is not often associated with that event in Venezuela was a major
eruption of Tambora Volcano at 9S 118E east of Java in 1815. This is considered
by many geoscientists as the greatest volcanic eruption in modern times.
It released enough gas and particulate matter to darken the earth's skies
for several years after and caused the "year without summer" in 1816 when temperatures
in many areas dropped by significant amounts due to the sky darkening
from that volcanic eruption. This eruption began in 1812 when the "volcano
began to rumble and generated a dark cloud" (Wikipedia and Stothers, 2004, Density of fallen ash after the eruption of Tambora in 1815. Jurnal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 134 (4), 343-345.
As Tambora is very near the antipode of the
1812 earthquake in Venezuela it is likely this volcanic activity in
Indonesia was promoted by seismic effects from the earthquake in Venezuela.
The last eruption of Tambora occurred on June 20, 2026.
The area of Sumatra and Java east to Sumba in Indonesia is highly volcanic
and many of the greatest recent volcanic eruption have occurred in this
region (including Krakatoa at 6S 105E in the Sunda arc) which experienced
a similar catastrophic eruption sequence from May to October, 1883 also causing global climate and
temperature drops due to the emitted ash cloud. The antipode of Krakatoa
is in Colombia at 6N 75W, another active seismic area. One of the strongest
earthquakes recorded in Colombia was an M 8.0 at 7N 77W on September 7, 1882
months before the eruption at Krakatoa began and very near the antipode
of that volcano. The only other event in Colombia of M>=8 in the historical
catalog was an M 8.2 on June 18, 1826. Krakatoa is currently experience a major period of unrest and
regional geoscientists consider a major eruption is possible at this time
or in the near future.
This brief glimpse into some of the major historical events in Colombia and
Venezuela and subsequent volcanism in the Sunda arc of Venezuela suggests
that the expected seismic regime of that area is likely to see a major
volcanic eruption in the next months as well as the possibility of a
moderately large to large earthquake near the antipode of the Venezuelan
earthquakes. Such an eruption would likely have major consequences in the
near term on global weather and temperatures as seen in 1812-1815 and
in 1882-1883. Mount Merapi in Central Java is an active volcano and is near
the antipode to the Venezuelan earthquakes. Signs of such a pending eruption should be carefully monitored
in coming days." (June 27, 2026)
In addition to being nearly antipodal to the M 7.4 in Colombia of August 10, 2026
this earthquake was also at 103 degrees from Hurricane Lowell at the time
of the start of the volcanic eruption" (September 4, 2026)
This event in Sumatra occurred near the peak of a minor proton storm (see above).
The remnants of Hurricane Lowell are at the fourth node (90 degrees) from
this epicenter in Southern Sumatra and may have also helped trigger this event.
O: 11SEP2026 21:23:55 5.0S 106.9E MW=6.5 EMSC SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
The second strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.9-6.0 in the area of the
Banda Sea, Indonesia. This event at 129 degrees East longitude was probably promoted
by the tidal stresses associated with today's new moon as it occurred
at the longitude of maximum stress with that alignment (see above).
O: 11SEP2026 11:56:27 7.3S 129.0E MW=5.9 EMSC KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESI
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.4 in San Francisco Bay area, California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of San Francisco Bay area, California in Pittsburg, Lodi, Pleasanton, Stockton, Danville, Clayton, Brentwood, Mountain View, Los Gatos among others.
This event was preceded by a series of light earthquake on September 10, 2026
which occurred near local solar noon. This area has been quiet in recent weeks
and this may indicate a resurgence of local seismicity near these epicenters.
A strong earthquake is overdue in the area.
This epicenter is at the seventh node (52 degrees) from Colombia and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 12SEP2026 07:25:55 37.8N 121.8W MD=3.4 NEIC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
O: 12SEP2026 07:25:55 37.9N 121.8W ML=3.1 EMSC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.5 in the Unimak area of southern Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Unimak area of southern Alaska near False Pass.
This epicenter is near the fourth node (90 degrees) from Flores Sea and at the eighth node (45 degrees)
from Hurricane Norbert and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 11SEP2026 07:31:50 54.2N 163.0W MB=4.5 EMSC UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.0 in Central Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central Alaska in Palmer, Eagle River, Talkeetna, Wasilla, Anchorage, Matanuska-Susitna Borought, Valdez, Firdwood and Chugiak.
O: 11SEP2026 07:10:22 62.2N 147.8W ML=4.0 EMSC CENTRAL ALASKA
NEIC reported earthquakes of M 4.0, 2.1, 2.3, 2.3, 2.5, 2.4 in the Geysers of northern California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Geysers of northern California in Middletown and Kelseyville.
O: 11SEP2026 10:24:19 38.8N 122.7W MD=2.3 EMSC NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.8 in Wyoming was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Wyoming in Fort Bridger.
This epicenter is at 30 degrees (node 12) from Chiapas, Mexico and may have
been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 12SEP2026 06:25:49 41.7N 109.8W MB=3.8 EMSC WYOMING
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.5 in Washington State was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Washington State in Mount Vernon, Stanwood, Arlington, Anacortes, and in British Columbia, Canada at Chilliwack and Ucluelet.
O: 12SEP2026 04:17:36 48.4N 122.3W ML=2.5 EMSC WASHINGTON
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.7 in Panama was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Panama in Chiriqui at Potrerillos Arriva (V); Boquete and Cerro Punta and Bagala (IV) and in Corredor, Bocas del Toro, Volcan, Pedregal, Palmira and David with intensity III-IV.
EMSC reported moderate to strong shaking in Panama at Santo Domingo, Bugabita Arriba, Progreso, Santa Rosa, Manaca Civil, Aguacatal, Nuevo San Carlitos, David, Volcan, Potrerillos Arriba, Palmira, Limones, Bajo Boquete, Mague, Alto Boquete, Jaramillo Arriba, Boca Chica, Anton, Rio Abajo, San Miguelito, and in Costa Rica at Mercedes, Daniel Flores, San Juan.
O: 12SEP2026 01:59:50 8.4N 82.8W MB=4.7 EMSC PANAMA-COSTA RICA BORDER REGIO
O: 12SEP2026 02:18:33 9.4N 82.9W ML=4.2 EMSC PANAMA-COSTA RICA BORDER REGION
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.7 in Colombia was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Colombia in Pereira, Tisarlda, Cali Valle del Cauca and Buenaventura.
EMSC reported light ot moderate shaking in Colombia at Buenaventura, Cali, Montenegro, Pereira, Sabaneta, Soacha, Bogota,
This epicenter is at the fourth node (90 degrees) from Hurricane Lowell and
at the seventh node (52 degrees) from the current position of Hurricane Norbert
and is likely to have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 11SEP2026 16:42:30 4.4N 76.8W MB=4.7 EMSC COLOMBIA
NEIC reported a series of earthquakes of M 5.3, 4.3 ... in the western Andreanof Islands, Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the western Andreanof Islands, Alaska near Adak.
This was the strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today.
This epicenter was at the seventh node (51 degrees) from Hurricane Norbert
when it occurred and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 11SEP2026 10:51:55 51.1N 178.4W ML=3.1 EMSC ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS
O: 11SEP2026 10:52:51 51.1N 178.4W ML=4.3 EMSC ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
O: 12SEP2026 03:43:22 51.1N 178.5W ML=3.5 EMSC ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
O: 11SEP2026 10:47:13 51.3N 178.5W mb=5.3 EMSC ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT (DEPRESSION 14E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS NORBERT 2026-09-12 00:00 UT 17.8N 130.0W 55 kts West of of Baja California, Mexico
TS Norbert (14E) continued today west of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 55 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate local seismic hazard to the region at this time. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 18S 50E) where little seismic enhancement is possible at this time. Enhanced seismicity at 103 degrees from this storm has been noted and may continue.
A tropical cyclone may be forming south of Baja California. This system is currently located at 14N 114W with winds up to 25 kts and is not expected to enhance regional seismicity at this time. The antipode at 14S 66E could see moderate enhancement in the next several days.
A tropical cyclone may be forming west of Central and northern Philippines. This system is currently located at 17N 109E with winds up to 25 kts and may enhance regional seismicity in southeast Asia and the Philippines at this time. The antipode at 17S 71W - an active seismic zone in northern Chile and southern Peru - could see moderate enhancement in the next several days.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 11, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
There were no solar flares of C-class or higher observed on September 11, 2026.
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: unsettled September 12-13 active September 14. Solar M-flare chance: 10% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 8, high: 16, mid-latitude: 9, time of max k: 12:00-14:00 UT; Max k: 5 Global Kp 2.67 0900-1200, September 11; Sunspot Number: 88; Radio Flux: 110 September 11, 2026.
September 11, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
The new moon will arrive on September 11, 2026 at 03:27 UT. Areas which are anti-solar (local solar midnight) are near 52 W and those sub-solar at this time are near 127 E longitudes. In the west these include areas of the Atlantic Ocean including Iceland and eastern Caribbean while in the east much of the area from Kamchatka south to Japan and portions of Eastern New Guinea, Mindanao, Philippines, central Indonesia, Taiwan, Macquarie and New South Wales, Australia are near these longitudes and may see enhanced seismicity in the next week. A moderately strong earthquake is possible after the current geomagnetic storm ceases in this area during this time. Other areas may also see tidal triggering which is most likely near local solar midnight and local solar noon." (June 12-14, 2026)
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.9-6.0 in the area of the
Banda Sea, Indonesia. This event at 129 degrees East longitude was probably promoted
by the tidal stresses associated with today's new moon as it occurred
at the longitude of maximum stress with that alignment (see above).
O: 11SEP2026 11:56:27 7.3S 129.0E MW=5.9 EMSC KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESI
A moderate excursion in the geomagnetic field strength was recorded on
September 11 starting about 15:20 UT. An arcjet manevuer corrected the
satellite position and normal operations resumed about 16:00 UT.
The GFZ Hp30 index was mostly at quiet levels today occasionally reaching
an index near 4 on two occasions. The geomagnetic storm is over and
normal or slightly elevated seismicity is expected in the next several
days as electrons reform ionospheric ring currents which can induce
telluric currents and probably help promote seismicity in many areas.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in Costa Rica was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Costa Rica in Puntarenas at Quepos, Esparta, Golfito and II in San jose at San Vicente, Desamparados and in Palmares, Alajuela.
O: 10SEP2026 08:26:53 9.0N 84.1W MW=5.0 EMSC COSTA RICA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.3 in Ecuador-Peru border was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Ecuador-Peru border in Ecuador at Macas Morona Santiago.
EMSC reported strong shaking in Ecuador at Gualaquiza, Gualacep. Cuenca.
The M 4.7 was reported with intensity II in Peru in Loja.
O: 10SEP2026 06:42:51 3.8S 77.4W MW=5.3 EMSC PERU-ECUADOR BORDER REGION
O: 10SEP2026 10:39:35 3.9S 77.4W mb=4.7 EMSC PERU-ECUADOR BORDER REGION
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.4 in San Francisco Bay area, California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of San Francisco Bay area, California in Pittsburg, Lodi, Pleasanton, Stockton, Danville, Clayton, Brentwood, Mountain View, Los Gatos among others.
This event was preceded by a series of light earthquake on September 10, 2026
which occurred near local solar noon. This area has been quiet in recent weeks
and this may indicate a resurgence of local seismicity near these epicenters.
A strong earthquake is overdue in the area.
O: 12SEP2026 07:25:55 37.8N 121.8W MD=3.4 EMSC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
O: 10SEP2026 21:27:18 37.7N 122.0W MD=2.1 EMSC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
O: 10SEP2026 22:00:38 37.7N 122.0W MD=2.1 EMSC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
O: 10SEP2026 22:02:52 37.7N 122.0W MD=2.2 EMSC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.5 in the Unimak area of southern Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Unimak area of southern Alaska near False Pass.
O: 11SEP2026 07:31:50 54.2N 163.0W MB=4.5 EMSC UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.0 in Central Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central Alaska in Palmer, Eagle River, Talkeetna, Wasilla, Anchorage, Matanuska-Susitna Borought, Valdez, Firdwood and Chugiak.
O: 11SEP2026 07:10:22 62.2N 147.8W ML=4.0 EMSC CENTRAL ALASKA
NEIC reported earthquakes of M 4.0, 2.1, 2.3, 2.3, 2.5, 2.4 in the Geysers of northern California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Geysers of northern California in Middletown and Kelseyville.
O: 10SEP2026 11:27:02 38.8N 122.8W MD=2.4 EMSC NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 10SEP2026 23:03:42 38.8N 122.8W MD=2.5 EMSC NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 10SEP2026 23:41:57 38.8N 122.8W MD=2.3 EMSC NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 11SEP2026 10:24:19 38.8N 122.7W MD=2.3 EMSC NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 10SEP2026 20:29:38 38.9N 122.8W MD=2.1 EMSC NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 10SEP2026 20:36:17 38.9N 122.8W ML=3.0 EMSC NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 10SEP2026 20:36:38 38.9N 122.8W ML=3.2 NEIC NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.0 in Northern Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Northern Alaska with IV in Teller and II in Wales and Nome.
O: 10SEP2026 23:03:10 65.2N 166.7W ML=4.0 EMSC NORTHERN ALASKA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.3 in East Timor, Indonesia was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of East Timor, Indonesia with III in Aileu, Liquica, Deli and in Coonawarra, Northern Territory, Australia.
O: 10SEP2026 18:44:40 8.5S 127.7E MB=5.3 EMSC EAST TIMOR REGION
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.1 in Lebanon was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Lebanon in Nabatiye et Tahta.
EMSC reported this earthquake was associated with bombing in the current regional
hostilities. That agency also reported shaking in Lebanon at Sidon, Tyre, Beirut, Ra's Bayrut, Tripoli and in Syria at 'Ayn al Fijah, Sirghaya, Babila, and in Parekklisha, Cyprus.
This epicenter is at the fourth node (90 degrees) from Flores and at 105
degrees from Colombia and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 10SEP2026 18:08:47 33.3N 35.3E MB=4.1 EMSC LEBANON - SYRIA REGION
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.1 in Guam was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Guam in Tamuning.
O: 10SEP2026 13:28:16 12.1N 143.9E MW=5.1 EMSC GUAM REGION
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.3 in Valparaiso, Chile was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Valparaiso, Chile in Vina del Mar.
O: 11SEP2026 04:42:24 32.6S 72.0W ML=4.3 EMSC OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
HURRICANE LOWELL (12E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR LOWELL 2026-09-11 00:00 UT 29.0N 169.8W 55 kts North Pacific south of Hawaii
Hurricane Lowell continued today Northwest of Hawaii in the North Pacific with winds up to 55 kts. It is expected dissipate in the next day. This storm is antipodal to the southern Africa near 29S 10E - a non seismic area near Botswana and northern South Africa. Enhanced seismicity at 103 and 144 degrees from Hurricane Lowell has been noted and could also continue.
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT (DEPRESSION 14E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS NORBERT 2026-09-11 00:00 UT 16.4N 124.3W 70 kts West of of Baja California, Mexico
TS Norbert (14E) continued today west of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 70 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate local seismic hazard to the region at this time. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 16S 56E) where moderate seismic enhancement is possible at this time. Enhanced seismicity at 103 degrees from this storm has been noted and may continue.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 10, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
8040 0025 0051 0108 C1.4 (September 10, 2026) 3.0E-03
Nias M 3.1 00:25 UT
Spain M 1.7 00:25 UT
Jan Mayen M 3.9 01:09 UT
8120 1653 1712 1739 C1.6 (September 10, 2026) 3.3E-03
Sichuan China, M 3.8 16:54 UT
Costa Rica M 3.0 16:53 UT
Hawaii M 2.2 16:54 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: unsettled September 11-13. Solar M-flare chance: 10% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 9, high: 14, mid-latitude: 8, time of max k: 09:00-11:00 UT; Max k: 5 Global Kp 2.67 0000-0600, September 10; Sunspot Number: 90; Radio Flux: 115 September 10, 2026.
A moderate excursion in the geomagnetic field strength was recorded on
September 11 starting about 15:20 UT. An arcjet manevuer corrected the
satellite position and normal operations resumed about 16:00 UT.
The GFZ Hp30 index was mostly at quiet levels today occasionally reaching
an index near 4 on two occasions. The geomagnetic storm is over and
normal or slightly elevated seismicity is expected in the next several
days as electrons reform ionospheric ring currents which can induce
telluric currents and probably help promote seismicity in many areas.
September 10, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
The new moon will arrive on September 11, 2026 at 03:27 UT. Areas which are anti-solar (local solar midnight) are near 52 W and those sub-solar at this time are near 127 E longitudes. In the west these include areas of the Atlantic Ocean including Iceland and eastern Caribbean while in the east much of the area from Kamchatka south to Japan and portions of Eastern New Guinea, Mindanao, Philippines, central Indonesia, Taiwan, Macquarie and New South Wales, Australia are near these longitudes and may see enhanced seismicity in the next week. A moderately strong earthquake is possible after the current geomagnetic storm ceases in this area during this time. Other areas may also see tidal triggering which is most likely near local solar midnight and local solar noon." (June 12-14, 2026)
The Hp30 (GFZ) index did not exceed 4 over the past 24 hours but minor excursions
reaching Hp30 of 4 occurred throughout September 9, 2026.
During this current storm global seismic activity is expected to be dampened with
little chance for a strong earthquake in the next two days despite tidal
effects from the new moon of September 11.
Otherwise, it was a quiet day in global seismicity today. An aftershock of M 1.7
in Maryland followed the M 2.1 in Maryland yesterday which NEIC reported was weakly felt in the epicentral area in Maryland at Rising Sun, Port Deposit, Solora, Conowingo, Hyattsville, Jefferson, Frederick and Churchville and in Middletown, Delaware, Glenside, Pennsylvania. .
This epicenter in Maryland is at the fifth node (72 degrees) from Hurricane Lowell
and at 145 degrees from the Flores Sea and may have been promoted by energy
from those sources among others.
O: 09SEP2026 04:41:39 39.7N 76.1W ML=2.1 EMSC MARYLAND
O: 09SEP2026 09:54:19 39.7N 76.1W ML=1.7 EMSC MARYLAND
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in Costa Rica was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Costa Rica in Puntarenas at Quepos, Esparta, Golfito and II in San jose at San Vicente, Desamparados and in Palmares, Alajuela.
O: 10SEP2026 08:26:53 9.0N 84.1W MW=5.0 EMSC COSTA RICA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.3 in Ecuador-Peru border was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Ecuador-Peru border in Ecuador at Macas Morona Santiago.
EMSC reported strong shaking in Ecuador at Gualaquiza, Gualacep. Cuenca.
O: 10SEP2026 06:42:40 3.9S 77.5W MW=5.3 EMSC PERU-ECUADOR BORDER REGION
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in Central Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central Alaska in Glennallen, Fort Richardson, Delta Junction, Matanuska-Susitna, Talkeetna, Palmer, Fairbanks, Girdwood, Indian, and Eagle River.
EMSC reported brief shaking for several seconds at Anchorage, Girdwood.
This epicenter is at the 10th node (36 degrees) from Hurricane Lowell and at the sxth node (60 degrees)
from Chiapas, Mexico and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 10SEP2026 05:18:09 62.5N 147.8W ML=4.2 EMSC CENTRAL ALASKA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.5 in San Francisco Bay, California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of San Francisco Bay, California in Oakland, Menlo Park, Alameda, and Moraga.
This epicenter is at the 10th node (36 degrees) from Hurricane Lowell and at the seventh
node (52 degrees) from Colombia and may have been promoted by energy from
those sources.
O: 10SEP2026 02:52:23 37.8N 122.2W MD=2.5 EMSC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
NEIC reported earthquakes of M 3.6 and M 3.8 off the northern coast of California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of northern California at Petrolia, Rio Dell, Ferndale, Loleta, Garberville, Whitethorn, Fortuna.
O: 10SEP2026 01:24:03 40.3N 124.6W MW=3.5 EMSC OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 10SEP2026 01:24:03 40.3N 124.6W MW=3.8 NEIC OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 10SEP2026 01:24:47 40.3N 124.6W Mw=3.4 EMSC OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 10SEP2026 01:24:47 40.3N 124.6W Mw=3.6 NEIC OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
EMSC reported earthquakes of M 4.3 and M 4.6 in Tarapaca, Chile were felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Tarapaca, Chile in Iquique.
These epicenters are at 102 degrees from the current eye of Hurricane Lowell
and were probably promoted by energy from that source.
O: 10SEP2026 01:57:36 21.0S 69.2W MB=4.3 EMSC TARAPACA, CHILE
O: 09SEP2026 11:46:02 20.6S 70.6W MW=4.5 EMSC OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.3 in Southern Iran was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Southern Iran in Khowrmuj.
O: 09SEP2026 19:26:22 28.1N 51.5E MB=4.3 EMSC SOUTHERN IRAN
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
HURRICANE LOWELL (12E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR LOWELL 2026-09-10 00:00 UT 29.0N 164.8W 70 kts North Pacific south of Hawaii
Hurricane Lowell continued today Northwest of Hawaii in the North Pacific with winds up to 70 kts. It is expected track to the west and north at this point. This storm is antipodal to the southern Africa near 29S 16E - a non seismic area near Botswana and northern South Africa. Enhanced seismicity at 103 and 144 degrees from Hurricane Lowell has been noted and could also continue.
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT (DEPRESSION 14E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS NORBERT 2026-09-10 00:00 UT 16.4N 117.3W 45 kts South of Baja California, Mexico
TS Norbert (14E) continued today south of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 45 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate local seismic hazard to the region at this time. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 16S 63E) where moderate seismic enhancement is possible at this time. Enhanced seismicity at 103 degrees from this storm has been noted and may continue.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 9, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
7950 0553 0610 0625 C1.5 (September 9, 2026) 2.2E-03
Sunda Strait M 4.0 06:21 UT
7960 0848 0908 0923 C3.4 (September 9, 2026) 4.3E-03
7980 1023 1032 1037 C3.2 (September 9, 2026) 1.8E-03
Flores M 3.7 10:22 UT
Henan, China M 4.6 10:51 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: unsettled September 10-12. Solar M-flare chance: 10% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 12, high: 26, mid-latitude: 10, time of max k: 07:00-09:00 UT; Max k: 6 Global Kp 3.00 1800-2200, September 9; Sunspot Number: 107; Radio Flux: 109 September 9, 2026.
September 9, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
The new moon will arrive on September 11, 2026 at 03:27 UT. Areas which are anti-solar (local solar midnight) are near 52 W and those sub-solar at this time are near 127 E longitudes. In the west these include areas of the Atlantic Ocean including Iceland and eastern Caribbean while in the east much of the area from Kamchatka south to Japan and portions of Eastern New Guinea, Mindanao, Philippines, central Indonesia, Taiwan, Macquarie and New South Wales, Australia are near these longitudes and may see enhanced seismicity in the next week. A moderately strong earthquake is possible after the current geomagnetic storm ceases in this area during this time. Other areas may also see tidal triggering which is most likely near local solar midnight and local solar noon." (June 12-14, 2026)
The Hp30 (GFZ) index exceeded 4 over most of the past 24 hours and reached 6 on several occasions mid-UT day. This is the strongest
geomagnetic storm since the storm of July 4, 2026 when global A reached 75 and K-index reached 7.33.
Today's storm is likely to continue for several days at a reduced intensity.
During the storm global seismic activity is expected to be dampened with
little chance for a strong earthquake in the next two days.
A geomagnetic excursion was noted by the magnetometer on GOES 18 beginning about 15:35-15:43 UT.
An arcjet maneuver corrected the satellite position and normal operations
resumed by 16:45 UT. Two moderate earthquake coincided with the start of this geomagnetic
excursion - an M 5.2 in the Flores Sea at 15:37 UT and an M 4.9 in Tonga at 15:43 UT.
The earthquake in the Flores Sea occurred within minutes of local solar midnight
and was felt with intensity II in Ruteng, Nusa Tenggara, Timur, Indonesia and may have been promoted by this change in geomagnetic field strength.
O: 08SEP2026 15:43:57 16.1S 173.2W MB=4.9 EMSC TONGA
O: 08SEP2026 15:36:35 7.9S 120.8E MW=5.2 EMSC FLORES SEA
Otherwise, it was a quiet day in global seismicity today. The most unusual earthquake of
the day was an M 2.1 in Maryland which NEIC reported was weakly felt in the epicentral area in Maryland at Rising Sun, Port Deposit, Solora, Conowingo, Hyattsville, Jefferson, Frederick and Churchville and in Middletown, Delaware, Glenside, Pennsylvania. .
The mainshock of M 2.1 was followed by an M 1.7 aftershock.
This epicenter in Maryland is at the fifth node (72 degrees) from Hurricane Lowell
and at 145 degrees from the Flores Sea and may have been promoted by energy
from those sources among others.
O: 09SEP2026 04:41:39 39.7N 76.1W ML=2.1 EMSC MARYLAND
O: 09SEP2026 09:54:19 39.7N 76.1W ML=1.7 EMSC MARYLAND
Earthquakes were also felt in northern Greece (M 4.5) and in the Xizang-Nepal
border region (M 4.9). EMSC reported the earthquake in Nepal was felt in Nepal at jomsom, Lo Manthang, Bhattarai Danda, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Patan.
NEIC reported intensity IV from Nepal at Pokhara, Kaska III in Bagluri, Baglung, Tribuvannagar and II in Kathmandu.
This event in Nepal is at the seventh node (51-52 degrees) from Flores, Indonesia and may
have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 08SEP2026 16:08:35 29.2N 84.0E MB=4.9 EMSC XIZANG-NEPAL BORDER REGION
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.3 in Tonga.
The earthquake in Tonga was reported by NEIC to have been felt with intensity
III in Tonga at Pangai, Ha'aai and Neiafu, Vava'u.
This earthquake occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and may have
been promoted by geomagnetic and/or tidal stresses which maximize near this hour.
O: 08SEP2026 11:51:12 18.5S 174.0W MB=5.3 EMSC TONGA
A moderate sized earthquake occurred today in northern Greece (M 4.5). NEIC reported the earthquakes in Greece were felt with intensity III in Mesolongion, Aitolia kai Akarnania, Greece.
A foreshock of M 4.3 in Greece was reported by NEIC to have been felt with intensity II in Patrai, Ahaia, Greece.
EMSC reported these earthquakes in Greece were felt as a big shake in Rio, Agrinio, Ayios Konstandinos, Kamaroula, Newchorion, Nafpaktos, Patra, Kato Achaia, Paralia, Ovia, Varda, Nidhrion, Ligia, Ithaki, Lechaina, Aigio, laxidhion, Laganas, Kariotika Karyas, and in Cim, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
This earthquakes in Greece is located at 103 degrees from Flores, Indonesia and were
likely promoted by energy from that source.
O: 08SEP2026 07:46:32 38.5N 21.4E ML=4.5 EMSC GREECE
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
HURRICANE LOWELL (12E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR LOWELL 2026-09-09 00:00 UT 27.0N 162.8W 75 kts North Pacific south of Hawaii
Hurricane Lowell continued today Northwest of Hawaii in the North Pacific with winds up to 75 kts. It is expected track to the west and north at this point. This storm is antipodal to the southern Africa near 27S 16E - a non seismic area near Botswana and northern South Africa. Enhanced seismicity at 103 and 144 degrees from Hurricane Lowell has been noted and could also continue.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TD 14E 2026-09-09 00:00 UT 16.0N 114.0W 40 kts South of Baja California, Mexico
TD 14E formed today south of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 40 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate local seismic hazard to the region at this time. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 16S 65E) where moderate seismic enhancement is possible at this time. Enhanced seismicity at 103 degrees from this storm has been noted and may continue.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 8, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
7950 0553 0610 0625 C1.5 (September 9, 2026) 2.2E-03
Sunda Strait M 4.0 06:21 UT
7960 0848 0908 0923 C3.4 (September 9, 2026) 4.3E-03
7980 1023 1032 1037 C3.2 (September 9, 2026) 1.8E-03
Flores M 3.7 10:22 UT
Henan, China M 4.6 10:51 UT
7800 1219 1224 1227 C2.4 (September 8, 2026) 8.0E-04
7830 1735 1743 1747 C2.8 (September 8, 2026) 1.1E-03
7890 2032 2043 2051 C1.2 (September 8, 2026) 1.1E-03
Utah M 2.2 20:33 UT
7900 2139 2148 2156 C1.2 (September 8, 2026) 1.2E-03
Flores M 4.6 21:42 UT
Tonga M 4.9 21:57 UT
7910 2217 2224 2229 C2.6 (September 8, 2026) 1.4E-03
Hokkaido M 3.8 22:16 UT
Queen Charlotte Is. M 3.8 22:15 UT
Taiwan M 4.3 22:32 UT
7920 2322 2339 2350 C3.4 (September 8, 2026) 3.6E-03
Mariana Is. M 4.9 23:23 UT
Flores M 3.9 23:23 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: unsettled September 10-11 minor storms September 9. Solar M-flare chance: 15% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 29, high: 44, mid-latitude: 23, time of max k: 07:00-12:00 UT; Max k: 6 Global Kp 5.00 0900-1200, September 8; Sunspot Number: 102; Radio Flux: 110 September 8, 2026.
September 8, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
A moderate geomagnetic storm occurred today at high latitudes near mid-UT day.
Kp reached 6 for several hours.
A strong geomagnetic field excursion was registered on the GOES-18 magnetometer (137 W)
beginning about 08:00 UT on September 7. It was not associated with a significant
earthquake. A similar excursion on the GOES 19 magnetometer began about 23:35 UT
on September 7. An arcjet maneuver corrected the orbit and normal operations
resumed by 00:50 UT on September 8. An M 5.1 earthquake in Vanuatu which occurred within
minutes of local solar noon accompanied this geomagnetic excursion. An M 4.4 in
Fiji occurred shortly before at 22:35 UT, also a near-solar noon event.
The Hp30 (GFZ) index exceeded 4 over most of the past 24 hours and reached 5 on several occasions. This is the strongest
geomagnetic storm since the storm of late August, 2026 ended on August 31, 2026.
Global seismicity especially at high latitudes and near the geomagnetic equator is expected to be dampened while this storm is in progress.
Moderate sized earthquake occurred today in northern Greece (M 4.5 and M 4.0) and
in Albania (M 4.3). NEIC reported the earthquakes in Greece were felt with intensity III in Mesolongion, Aitolia kai Akarnania, Greece.
A foreshock of M 4.3 in Greece was reported by NEIC to have been felt with intensity II in Patrai, Ahaia, Greece.
EMSC reported these earthquakes in Greece were felt as a big shake in Rio, Agrinio, Ayios Konstandinos, Kamaroula, Newchorion, Nafpaktos, Patra, Kato Achaia, Paralia, Ovia, Varda, Nidhrion, Ligia, Ithaki, Lechaina, Aigio, laxidhion, Laganas, Kariotika Karyas, and in Cim, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
These earthquakes (in Albania and Greece) are located at 103 degrees from Flores, Indonesia and were
likely promoted by energy from that source.
O: 08SEP2026 07:46:32 38.5N 21.4E ML=4.5 EMSC GREECE
O: 08SEP2026 03:25:15 38.3N 21.8E mb=4.0 EMSC GREECE
O: 08SEP2026 03:25:15 38.3N 21.8E mb=4.3 NEIC GREECE
NEIC reported the earthquake in Albania was lightly felt near Pogradec, Albania.
EMSC reported this earthquake in Albania was felt with moderate intensity in Albania at Vreshtas, Bucimas, Pogradec, Korce, Gramsh, Tirana, Kolonje, and in North Macedonia at Otlja, Ohrid, Mislesevo, Struga, Lavci, Radolista, Bitola, and in Neapoli, Greece and Pristina, Kosovo.
O: 08SEP2026 03:40:55 40.8N 20.8E MB=4.3 EMSC ALBANIA
NEIC reported two earthquakes of M 3.0 each in Hawaii were felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Hawaii at Waikoloa, Kahalau, Laupahoehoe, Pepeekeo, Honomu, Kamuela.
These may have been promoted by energy from Hurricane Lowell which was passing
to the west of Hawaii today and had been expected to excite some enhanced
seismicity in that area at this time.
This epicenter is at the sixth node from Chiapas, Mexico and may have been
promoted by energy from that source.
O: 08SEP2026 07:06:48 19.9N 155.2W MD=3.0 EMSC ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII
O: 08SEP2026 06:52:45 19.7N 155.8W MD=3.1 NEIC ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.1 in the South Sandwich Islands was not felt in this remote area.
This epicenter is at 107 degrees from Flores Sea and the fourth node (90 degrees)\
from Chiapas, Mexico and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 08SEP2026 06:50:41 58.2S 26.0W MW=5.1 EMSC SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.8 in northern Venezuela was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of northern Venezuela near Lara.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Venezeula at San Felipe, Puerto Cabello, Naguanagua, Valencia, Maracay, Guanare, Santa Rita, San Antonio de Los Altos, Caracaas, La Dolorita, Santa Teresa del Tuy, El Vigia, Machiques, Tovar,
O: 08SEP2026 06:49:53 10.6N 69.2W MW=4.8 EMSC LARA, VENEZUELA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.4 in Colombia was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Colombia in Cartago Valle del Cauca.
This epicenter is at 51.5 degrees (node 7) from Hurricane Marie and may
have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 08SEP2026 02:01:34 4.5N 76.8W MB=4.4 EMSC COLOMBIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.7 in Northern California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Northern California in Garberville, Rio Dell, Fortuna, Mount Shasta, Carlotta, Hydesville and Redcrest.
O: 07SEP2026 21:44:24 40.6N 123.7W MW=3.4 EMSC NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 07SEP2026 21:44:24 40.6N 123.7W MW=3.7 NEIC NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.5 in Central Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central Alaska in Chugiak.
O: 07SEP2026 18:01:15 63.0N 149.3W ML=3.5 EMSC CENTRAL ALASKA
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.1 in India-Bangladesh was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of India-Bangladesh in Dispur.
O: 08SEP2026 04:27:22 26.0N 89.9E ML=4.1 EMSC INDIA-BANGLADESH BORDER REGION
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.0 in Oaxaca, Mexico was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Oaxaca, Mexico in Puerto Escondido, Colonia Libertad.
O: 08SEP2026 00:03:10 15.8N 97.1W ML=4.0 EMSC OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICO
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
HURRICANE LOWELL (12E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR LOWELL 2026-09-08 00:00 UT 23.0N 160.8W 105 kts North Pacific south of Hawaii
Hurricane Lowell continued today Northwest of Hawaii in the North Pacific with winds up to 105 kts. It is expected track to the west at this point. A series of minor earthquakes were recorded in Hawaii with this close approach of Hurricane Lowell. This storm is antipodal to the southern Africa near 23S 20E - a non seismic area near Botswana and northern South Africa. Enhanced seismicity at 103 and 144 degrees from Hurricane Lowell has been noted and could also continue.
HURRICANE MARIE (13E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR MARIE 2026-09-08 00:00 UT 25.5N 127.0W 45 kts West of Baja California, Mexico
Hurricane Marie (13E) continued today west of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 45 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate local seismic hazard to the region at this time. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 25S 53E) where little seismic enhancement is likely at this time. Enhanced seismicity at 103 degrees from this storm has been noted and may continue.
TROPICAL STORM KROVANH (22W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TD KROVANH 2026-09-08 00:00 UT 31.9N 133.0E 40 kts Kyushu, Japan
TS Krovanh continued today in the region of Kyushu, Japan with winds up to 40 kts. This storm will be encountering Kyushu, Japan around September 8 where some enhanced seismicity is possible near landfall. The antipode of this storm is at 32S 47W, a non-seismic region near Brazil.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 6, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
7750 0810 0901 0924 C2.1 (September 7, 2026) 6.3E-03
7730 1927 1935 1942 C1.0 (September 7, 2026) 6.9E-04
Off Northern California M 2.3 19:38 UT
South Island, NZ M 3.5 19:55 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: unsettled September 10 minor storms September 8-9. Solar M-flare chance: 15% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 19, high: 34, mid-latitude: 17, time of max k: 07:00-12:00 UT; Max k: 6 Global Kp 4.33 2200-2400, September 7; Sunspot Number: 103; Radio Flux: 110 September 7, 2026.
A moderate geomagnetic storm occurred today at high latitudes near mid-UT day.
Kp reached 6 for several hours.
A strong geomagnetic field excursion was registered on the GOES-18 magnetometer (137 W)
beginning about 08:00 UT on September 7. It was not associated with a significant
earthquake. A similar excursion on the GOES 19 magnetometer began about 23:35 UT
on September 7. An arcjet maneuver corrected the orbit and normal operations
resumed by 00:50 UT on September 8. An M 5.1 earthquake in Vanuatu which occurred within
minutes of local solar noon accompanied this geomagnetic excursion. An M 4.4 in
Fiji occurred shortly before at 22:35 UT, also a near-solar noon event.
The Hp30 (GFZ) index exceeded 4 over most of the past 24 hours and reached 5 on several occasions. This is the strongest
geomagnetic storm since the storm of late August, 2026 ended on August 31, 2026.
Global seismicity especially at high latitudes and near the geomagnetic equator is expected to be dampened while this storm is in progress.
September 7, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
NEIC reported a series of earthquakes of M 5.0-5.4 in the East Pacific Rise was not felt in this remote area.
These events may have been promoted by SFE from solar flare 7570 (C5.0) - the
large flare of the day. The largest occurred within a minute of the start of
that flare near local solar midnight. Data from SWPC for this flare follow.
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
7570 1031 1042 1048 C5.0 (September 6, 2026) 2.8E-03
Southeast Pacific Rise M 5.2, 5.2, 5.010:32, 10:38, 10:38, UT
Antofagasta M 4.8 10:39 UT
These epicenters are at the sixth node (60 degrees) from Hurricane Lowell and
at the eighth node from Chiapas, Mexico (45 degrees) and may have been promoted
by energy from those sources.
O: 6SEP2026 10:38:34 22.1S 115.7W MB=5.0 EMSC SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
O: 6SEP2026 10:38:18 24.5S 116.0W MB=5.2 EMSC SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
O: 06SEP2026 10:52:28 24.0S 115.9W mb=5.0 EMSC SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
O: 06SEP2026 12:00:15 24.3S 116.0W mb=5.2 EMSC SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
O: 06SEP2026 10:32:27 24.5S 115.7W mb=5.2 EMSC SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.5 in the Loyalty Islands was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Loyalty Islands.
This epicenter is at 101 degrees from Chiapas, Mexico and at the seventh node (51 degrees)
from Flores and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 7SEP2026 05:50:44 23.4S 171.7E MW=5.5 EMSC SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
NEIC reported a series of moderate earthquakes of M 5.0, 4.9, 4.7 in the Kermadec Islands, N.Z. was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Kermadec Islands, N.Z.
These epicenters are at 105 degrees from Colombianand at the seventh node (51 degrees)
from Hurricane Lowell and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 7SEP2026 02:06:46 31.1S 178.8E MB=5.0 EMSC KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
O: 07SEP2026 02:11:50 31.1S 178.7E mb=4.9 EMSC KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
O: 07SEP2026 02:30:21 31.3S 178.7E mb=4.7 EMSC KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.3 off the coast
of Oregon in a volcanic active region. NEIC reported it with M 5.3 was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Portland and Salem, Oregon and in Longview, Washington and possibly in Oregon at Shady Cove and Newport and in British Columbia at Victoria.
This epicenter is at 20 degrees from Hurricane Marie; 40 degrees from Hurricane
Lowell and 60 degrees from the Colombia earthquake of August 10 and may have
been promoted by constructive interference of energy from those sources.
It may also be related to the proton storm which was in progress when it
occurred (see previous issues for more details on this storm).
O: 7SEP2026 01:30:22 43.8N 128.5W MW=5.3 EMSC OFF COAST OF OREGON
O: 07SEP2026 01:30:01 43.8N 128.2W mb=3.9 EMSC OFF COAST OF OREGON
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.4 in Colombia was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Colombia in Popayan Cauca.
O: 6SEP2026 22:15:38 4.5N 76.8W MB=4.4 EMSC COLOMBIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.8 in Guerrero, Mexico was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Guerrero, Mexico in Acapulco and Mexico City.
O: 7SEP2026 06:58:59 16.9N 99.8W ML=4.1 EMSC GUERRERO, MEXICO
O: 07SEP2026 04:00:53 16.2N 99.4W ML=4.1 EMSC OFFSHORE GUERRERO, MEXICO
O: 06SEP2026 18:46:21 16.5N 99.2W mb=4.8 EMSC OFFSHORE GUERRERO, MEXICO
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in Central Peru was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central Peru in Arequipa.
O: 6SEP2026 09:14:26 17.2S 72.8W MB=4.2 EMSC NEAR COAST OF SOUTHERN PERU
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.2 in Los Angeles, California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Los Angeles, California in Bellflower, Pico Rivera, Lakewood, Long Beach, Santa Ana, Compton, Downey, Los Angeles, Los Alamitos among others.
This epicenter is at the eighth node (45 degrees) from Hurricane Lowell and at the third node (120 degrees)
from the Flores Sea and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 06SEP2026 07:13:11 33.9N 118.2W ML=3.2 EMSC GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALI
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.8 in Antofagasta, Chile was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Antofagasta, Chile in Calama.
O: 6SEP2026 10:39:31 22.3S 68.7W MB=4.8 EMSC ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS EDOUARD 2026-09-07 00:00 UT 32.0N 95.0W 40 kts Eastern Texas
TS Edouard continued today over eastern Texas with winds up to 40 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and made landfall on September 2 near the Texas-Louisiana border and may help promote regional seismicity near Shreveport, Louisiana and further inland in Oklahoma and southern Texas upon landfall and for about a day after. The antipode at 32S 86E in the South Indian Ocean is not a seismic area.
HURRICANE LOWELL (12E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR LOWELL 2026-09-07 00:00 UT 17.0N 162.8W 125 kts North Pacific south of Hawaii
Hurricane Lowell continued today South of Hawaii in the North Pacific with winds up to 125 kts. It is expected to make a turn to the north and east today and tomorrow. This could bring it near Hawaii as a major hurricane around September 8-10, 2026 where it could promote enhanced seismicity. This storm is antipodal to the southern Africa near 17S 18E - a non seismic area near Botswana. Enhanced seismicity at 103 and 144 degrees from Hurricane Lowell has been noted and could also continue.
HURICANE KARINA (11E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR KARINA 2026-09-07 00:00 UT 23.0N 145.0W 50 kts North Pacific
Hurricane Karina continued today in the North Pacific with winds up to 50 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate seismic hazard to the region but may arrive north of Hawaii around September 7-8 where some seismicity may be promoted. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 23S 35E near Madagascar) where little seismic enhancement is likely at this time. Enhanced seismicity has been noted at 103 and 144 degrees from the eye of Karina and this could continue.
HURRICANE MARIE (13E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR MARIE 2026-09-07 00:00 UT 24.5N 124.0W 70 kts West of Baja California, Mexico
Hurricane Marie (13E) continued today west of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 70 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate local seismic hazard to the region at this time. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 24S 56E) where little seismic enhancement is likely at this time. Enhanced seismicity at 103 degrees from this storm has been noted and may continue.
TROPICAL STORM KROVANH (22W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TD KROVANH 2026-09-07 00:00 UT 28.2N 132.9E 40 kts East of Ryukyu Islands
TS Krovanh continued today in the region east of the Ryukyu Islands, Japan with winds up to 40 kts. This storm will be encountering the Ryukyu Islands of Japan around September 7 where some enhanced seismicity is possible near landfall. The antipode of this storm is at 28S 47W, a non-seismic region near Brazil.
Typhoon Saudel continued in the area west of Taiwan today
with winds up to 50 kts. It is unlikely to promote enhanced seismicity in
the area of Honshu and Hokkaido at this time but some moderate seismic enhancement is possible in Taiwan and northern Philippines.
The antipode at 24S 63W is a seismic area in northern Chile and Argentina
and could see moderate, deep focus seismicity at this time. This storm is
expected to dissipate in the next day.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 6, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
7570 1031 1042 1048 C5.0 (September 6, 2026) 2.8E-03
Southeast Pacific Rise M 5.2, 5.2, 5.010:32, 10:38, 10:38, UT
Antofagasta M 4.8 10:39 UT
Philippines M 4.0 10:52 UT
7600 1315 1334 1351 C1.1 (September 6, 2026) 1.9E-03
Nepal M 3.8 13:29 UT
New Zealand M 3.1 13:32 UT
Ecuador M 3.5 13:46 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: active September 7 unsettled September 8-9. Solar M-flare chance: 20% X-class: 1% proton storm: 99%
AP Indicies: global: 5, high: 2, mid-latitude: 5, time of max k: 09:00-12:00 UT; Max k: 2 Global Kp 1.67 2300-2400, September 6; Sunspot Number: 83; Radio Flux: 110 September 6, 2026.
The Hp30 (GFZ) index did not exceed 3 over the past 24 hours. The current geomagnetic storm
has now drawn to a close. This could bring a couple of days of elevated
global seismicity especially at high latitudes and near the geomagnetic equator.
September 6, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
A moderate proton storm began on September 5 beginning at about 15:25 UT (GOES-18 Proton flux) and peaking about 16:45 UT.
Proton storms of this type excite seismicity in specific areas.
In the current situation, the strongest earthquakes of the day occurred
near the peak of this storm in Vanuatu with M 5.6; Fox Islands (M 4.9) and New Ireland (M 5.5).
Proton flux was unavailable at the peak of the storm (18:00-19:50 UT).
The event most likely triggered by this proton storm was an M 4.2-4.4 off the west coast
of North Island, New Zealand.
NEIC reported the aftershock of M 3.9 was felt with intensity II in New Plymouth, Taranaki,
New Zealand.
The event in New Zealand is a rarity. The last earthquake off the west coast
of North Island, New Zealand with M>=4.2 within about 100 km of today's epicenter
occurred as an M 4.8 on November 7, 2016 and before that as an M 4.6 on January 11, 2013. Today's earthquake was widely
felt on North Island. GeoNet gives the following data and felt information
for this event:
O: 05SEP2025 18:46:10 39.3S 173.9E MB=4.2 GEONET Felt with moderate to strong intensity in the area northwest of Wellington, North Island, New Zealand and in southern North Island. 2138 reports of felt events were made of which 776 reported weak and 1082 light intensity with 262 reports of moderate shaking and 16 with strong and 1 severe and 1 with extreme intensity came from the area.
This epicenter in New Zealand is at 102 degrees from Chiapas, Mexico and at the fifth node
(72 degrees) from Hurricane Karina and may have been promoted by energy from
those sources.
O: 05SEP2026 18:46:09 39.2S 173.8E ML=4.2 EMSC OFF W. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z
O: 05SEP2026 18:21:16 39.3S 173.9E ML=3.3 EMSC OFF W. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z.
The earthquake in this area off New Zealand may be a harbinger of a stronger
regional earthquake in the next week. The M 4.8 on November 7, 2016 was
followed by an M 7.8 near Christchurch, New Zealand six days later on
November 13, 2016 - one of the strongest earthquakes in New Zealand in
recent history. Other such examples occurred when events of M 4.2 occurred on
September 14 and 17, 1997 off the west coast of North Island, N.Z. were followed
on September 20, 1997 by an M 7.0 in the Kermadec Islands on September 20, 1997;
an M 5.5 in North Island on May 24, 2001 was followed on June 3 by an M 7.1
in the Kermadec Islands; an M 4.7 on May 5, 2026 by a strong M 7.4 in the Kermadec Islands
on May 16, 2026; A North Island M 5.4 on July 5, 2011 by an M 7.6 in the
Kermadec Islands on July 6, 2011; an M 4.8 in North Island of February 27, 2021 by
a series of M 7.3, 7.4 and 8.1 on March 4, 2021 in the Kermadec Islands.
This suggests a delay of about a week with the most likely area for a
major regional quake in the Kermadec Islands around September 11-13, 2026.
Most large earthquakes in New Zealand occur in the Kermadec Islands so they
may be heavily favored in such an analysis and there are major events
in the Kermadec Islands not preceded by smaller quakes off the west coast
of North Island, New Zealand.
The Hp30 (GFZ) index did not exceed 3 over the past 24 hours. The current geomagnetic storm
has now drawn to a close. This could bring a couple of days of elevated
global seismicity especially at high latitudes and near the geomagnetic equator.
An earthquakes in Sumatra of M 5.2 occurred at 102 degrees from the current location
of the eye of Hurricane Lowell and was likely promoted by energy from that source.
As Lowell moves north and east in the next two days it will remain near 103 degrees
from northern Sumatra and further enhanced seismicity may occur in that area
in the next several days.
O: 05SEP2026 14:06:07 1.1N 98.6E MB=5.2 EMSC NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
O: 05SEP2026 09:14:15 3.2N 96.1E MB=4.5 EMSC NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.2 in Los Angeles, California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Los Angeles, California in Bellflower, Pico Rivera, Lakewood, Long Beach, Santa Ana, Compton, Downey, Los Angeles, Los Alamitos among others.
This epicenter is at the eighth node (45 degrees) from Hurricane Lowell and at the third node (120 degrees)
from the Flores Sea and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 06SEP2026 07:13:11 33.9N 118.2W ML=3.2 EMSC GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALI
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.6 in the Solomon Islands was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Solomon Islands near Kirakira.
O: 06SEP2026 04:05:30 11.1S 162.5E MW=5.6 EMSC SOLOMON ISLANDS
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.3 in Chiapas, Mexico was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Chiapas, Mexico near Puerto Madero.
This epicenter is at 106 degrees from Chiapas, Mexico and at the third node (121 degrees) from Colombia;
and the ninth node (40 degrees from Hurricane Lowell and Flores and may have
been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 06SEP2026 03:28:31 14.1N 93.3W ML=4.1 EMSC OFF COAST OF CHIAPAS, MEXICO
O: 06SEP2026 03:48:45 14.1N 93.4W ML=4.4 EMSC OFF COAST OF CHIAPAS, MEXICO
O: 06SEP2026 02:56:32 14.2N 93.2W Mw=5.3 EMSC OFF COAST OF CHIAPAS, MEXICO
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.5 in New Ireland was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of New Ireland in Namatanai, New Ireland, PNG.
This epicenter was at the fifth node (72 degrees) from Hurricane Karina and at
the eighth node (45 degrees) from Hurricane Lowell and at the fourth node (90 degrees) from Hurricane Marie at the time of its occurrence
and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 05SEP2026 14:12:07 4.5S 153.7E MW=5.5 EMSC NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.6 in Washington State was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Washington State with IV in Salkum and Cougar and III in Vancouver, Toledo, Centralia and Ariel and II inOregon, at Portland, Clatskanie.
O: 05SEP2026 11:09:28 46.2N 122.6W ML=3.6 EMSC WASHINGTON
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in Southern Sumatra was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern Sumatra near Pagar Alam.
This may be related to the eruption of nearby volcano Krakatoa (see previous
issues of this summary for details). This epicenter was near 103 degrees
from Hurricane Karina when this earthquake occurred and may have been promoted
by energy from that source.
O: 05SEP2026 10:59:15 4.4S 102.8E MB=5.0 EMSC SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.7 in Southern California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern California with intensity III in Wildomar, Perris, Murieta and II in Winchester, Temecula, Sun City, Oceanside, San Diego, Fallbrook.
O: 05SEP2026 10:31:43 33.5N 117.1W ML=2.7 EMSC SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.1 in Romania was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Romania at Galati, Pitesti, Scheia.
O: 06SEP2026 04:04:18 45.6N 26.4E ML=4.1 EMSC ROMANIA
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.0 in India-Bangladesh was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of India-Bangladesh in Silchar, India and Azimpur, Bangladesh and Dhaka.
O: 06SEP2026 03:36:20 24.6N 92.7E ML=4.0 EMSC INDIA-BANGLADESH BORDER REGION
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS EDOUARD 2026-09-06 00:00 UT 32.0N 95.0W 40 kts Eastern Texas
TS Edouard continued today over eastern Texas with winds up to 40 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and made landfall on September 2 near the Texas-Louisiana border and may help promote regional seismicity near Shreveport, Louisiana and further inland in Oklahoma and southern Texas upon landfall and for about a day after. The antipode at 32S 86E in the South Indian Ocean is not a seismic area.
HURRICANE LOWELL (12E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR LOWELL 2026-09-06 00:00 UT 13.7N 162.8W 140 kts North Pacific south of Hawaii
Hurricane Lowell continued today South of Hawaii in the North Pacific with winds up to 140 kts (Category 5 storm). It is expected to make a turn to the north and east today and tomorrow. This could bring it near Hawaii as a major hurricane around September 9-11, 2026 where it could promote enhanced seismicity. This storm is antipodal to the southern Africa near 13S 17E - a non seismic area. Enhanced seismicity at 103 and 144 degrees from Hurricane Lowell has been noted and could also continue.
HURICANE KARINA (11E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR KARINA 2026-09-06 00:00 UT 22.0N 143.9W 65 kts North Pacific
Hurricane Karina continued today in the North Pacific with winds up to 65 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate seismic hazard to the region but may arrive north of Hawaii around September 6-8 where some seismicity may be promoted. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 22S 37E near Madagascar) where little seismic enhancement is likely at this time. Enhanced seismicity has been noted at 103 and 144 degrees from the eye of Karina and this could continue.
HURRICANE MARIE (13E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR MARIE 2026-09-06 00:00 UT 22.5N 121.5W 100 kts South of Baja California, Mexico
Hurricane Marie (13E) continued today south of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 100 kts (category 2 storm). It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate local seismic hazard to the region at this time. Some models suggest this storm may change track and threaten Southern and Central California in several days as a moderate hurricane. Some regional seismicity may be enhanced in California if that does occur. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 22S 58E) where little seismic enhancement is likely at this time. Enhanced seismicity at 103 degrees from this storm has been noted and may continue.
TROPICAL STORM KROVANH (22W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TD KROVANH 2026-09-06 00:00 UT 25.5N 130.2E 40 kts East of Ryukyu Islands
TS Krovanh continued today in the region east of the Ryukyu Islands, Japan with winds up to 40 kts. This storm will be encountering the Ryukyu Islands of Japan around September 5-6 where some enhanced seismicity is possible near landfall. The antipode of this storm is at 25S 51W, a non-seismic region near Brazil.
TYPHOON SAUDEL (DEPRESSION 17W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH SAUDEL 2026-09-06 00:00 UT 23.5N 117.4E 50 kts West of Taiwan north of Guam
Typhoon Saudel continued in the area west of Taiwan today
with winds up to 50 kts. It is unlikely to promote enhanced seismicity in
the area of Honshu and Hokkaido at this time but some moderate seismic enhancement is possible in Taiwan and northern Philippines.
The antipode at 24S 63W is a seismic area in northern Chile and Argentina
and could see moderate, deep focus seismicity at this time. This storm is
expected to dissipate in the next day.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 5, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
7390 1024 1045 1056 C6.4 (September 5, 2026) 6.9E-03
Sumatra M 5.0 10:59 UT
7400 1156 1202 1211 C1.5 (September 5, 2026) 1.1E-03
7430 1504 1518 1527 M1.0 (September 5, 2026) 7.3E-03
7450 1732 1746 1753 C8.5 (September 5, 2026) 6.2E-03
Carlsberg Ridge M 5.3 17:25 UT
Guerrero M 4.2 17:54 UT
Fox Is. M 4.9 18:00 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: quiet September 6 active September 7 unsettled September 8. Solar M-flare chance: 20% X-class: 1% proton storm: 99%
AP Indicies: global: 6, high: 10, mid-latitude: 6, time of max k: 09:00-12:00 UT; Max k: 4 Global Kp 2.67 0300-0600, September 5; Sunspot Number: 70; Radio Flux: 111 September 5, 2026.
The Hp30 (GFZ) index did not exceed 3 over the past 24 hours. The current geomagnetic storm
has now drawn to a close. This could bring a couple of days of elevated
global seismicity especially at high latitudes and near the geomagnetic equator.
September 5, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
It was a relatively quiet day in global seismicity today. Moderate seismicity
occurred at sub-solar latitude (3.0-3.5 North latitude on September 5). These
included earthquakes of M 5.0 in Sumatra and off the coast of Central America.
The earthquakes in Sumatra are occurring at 102 degrees from the current location
of the eye of Hurricane Lowell and were likely promoted by energy from that source.
As Lowell moves north and east in the next two days it will remain near 103 degrees
from northern Sumatra and further enhanced seismicity may occur in that area
in the next several days.
O: 04SEP2026 16:24:38 1.2N 99.0E MB=5.1 EMSC NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
O: 05SEP2026 03:37:47 3.1N 96.1E ML=4.2 EMSC NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
O: 05SEP2026 09:14:15 3.2N 96.1E mb=4.5 EMSC NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
The M 5.0 off the coast of Central America is a somewhat unusual event. It is the
strongest earthquake within about 200 km of today's epicenter since an M 5.1 about 200 km
southwest of today's epicenter on June 29, 2026 and prior to that an M 5.1 on June 29, 2025.
This latitude is also at sub-solar conditions on June 29 each year. One of the
strongest earthquakes in this area in the past 35 years was an M 5.6 on
September 8, 1992 (when the epicenter was at sub-solar condidtions). A similar
M 5.6 also occurred on September 17-18, 2005 and on September 18, 1992 (M 5.1)
so the pattern of sub-solar earthquakes at this location appears well established
in the historical data.
An aftershock of M 4.4 occurred 16 minutes later seconds after the ScS seismic
wave returned to the epicenter and may have been promoted by energy from
that source. This and the mainshock occurred within minutes of local solar
midnight when tidal effects maximize and may have been promoted by energy
from those stressors.
Today's epicenter is at the sixth node (60 degrees) from Hurricane Karina
and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 05SEP2026 05:16:35 3.5N 83.1W MB=4.4 EMSC OFF COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
O: 05SEP2026 05:00:06 3.5N 83.2W Mw=5.0 EMSC OFF COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
A strong volcanic eruption that began yesterday continued today in Krakatoa, Indonesia. Volcanologists quoted in the press describe this as the strongest
eruption of Krakatoa since the massive eruption of 1882. Krakatoa Volcano is located at 6.1S 105.4E. This location was at 103 degrees from Hurricane Lowell (13N 154W) when the eruption began. This location is also within about 150
km of the antipode of the M 7.5 in Colombia of August 10, 2026. At the time
this summary noted:
"An earthquake of M 4.8 was located in southern
Sumatra aboutthree hours after the Colombia mainshock within 100 km of the
exact antipode of the Colombia event. Events are antipodal if their longitudes
add to 180 degrees (in this case the longitude of Colombia is given as 77.6W
and that of Sumatra quake as 102.4E - a sum of exactly 180) and their signed
latitudes sum to zero (in this case the longitude of the Colombia event is 4.6N
and of the Sumatra event 5.5S - a difference of 0.9 degrees about 100 km
off of exact antipodal events). Geometric focusing at the antipode of a
major quake can produce seismic wave amplitudes which may be strong enough
to trigger antipodal activity as it appears to have done in this case." (November 15, 2004)
The last earthquake in Colombia of M>6.5 occurred 13 years ago on August 13, 2013.
At the time the relation to Sumatra was discussed as:
"This epicenter (in Colombia) is at the exact antipode of an M 5.3 which hit south of Sumatra two days ago and may
have been promoted or triggered by that event. Frequent readers of this
summary know that two epicenters are antipodal if their latitudes are
the same and in opposite hemispheres (6N and 6S in the current pair)
and their longitudes add to 180 and are in opposite hemispheres (78W and
102E in the current pair). Further activity in Sumatra near this epicenter
is likely in the next several days. After this was written an M 4.6 did
occur in this region of Sumatra. The earthquake off Panama is the
strongest to occur in the world since an M 7.2 in the South Sandwich Islands
of July 15, 2013, a month ago. It is also the largset within 200 km of this
epicenter to occur since events of M 7.2 on November 15, 2004; October 18, 1992 and November 19, 1991.
The 10- to 11-year cycle here is probably not coincidental but is forced
by solar activity also on an 11-year cycle." (August 13, 2013)
After a moderate earthquake in Sumatra occurred yesterday this summary discussed
the relation between Sumatra and Colombia earthquakes (see this issue below).
In particular it is worthwhile to note the antipodal relation of today's
event in Colombia with the earlier M 5.3 in Sumatra. Within error limits
imposed by depth and size of the rupture zone, these two are very nearly
exactly antipodal (compare 5S and 5N and 103E and 76W for antipodality." (August 10-11, 2026)
This summary discussed the likelihood of enhanced volcanism in Krakatoa
related to earthquakes in Venezuela (and Colombia) in previous issues.
When an M 7.5 hit Venezuela on June 24, 2026 it was noted:
"With the antipodal (to Venezeula) event of M 5.2-5.6 today south of Java, Indonesia
it is prudent to reexamine the last earthquake in Venezuela of the size
(M 7.5) of the event of June 25. This earthquake occurred on March 26, 1812 and
was associated in time with major earthquakes in New Madrid, Missouri (M 8.1)
and in the Los Angeles, California (December 8, 1812 and December 21, 1812 M 7.0) region of the same year.
What is not often associated with that event in Venezuela was a major
eruption of Tambora Volcano at 9S 118E east of Java in 1815. This is considered
by many geoscientists as the greatest volcanic eruption in modern times.
It released enough gas and particulate matter to darken the earth's skies
for several years after and caused the "year without summer" in 1816 when temperatures
in many areas dropped by significant amounts due to the sky darkening
from that volcanic eruption. This eruption began in 1812 when the "volcano
began to rumble and generated a dark cloud" (Wikipedia and Stothers, 2004, Density of fallen ash after the eruption of Tambora in 1815. Jurnal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 134 (4), 343-345.
As Tambora is very near the antipode of the
1812 earthquake in Venezuela it is likely this volcanic activity in
Indonesia was promoted by seismic effects from the earthquake in Venezuela.
The last eruption of Tambora occurred on June 20, 2026.
The area of Sumatra and Java east to Sumba in Indonesia is highly volcanic
and many of the greatest recent volcanic eruption have occurred in this
region (including Krakatoa at 6S 105E in the Sunda arc) which experienced
a similar catastrophic eruption sequence from May to October, 1883 also causing global climate and
temperature drops due to the emitted ash cloud. The antipode of Krakatoa
is in Colombia at 6N 75W, another active seismic area. One of the strongest
earthquakes recorded in Colombia was an M 8.0 at 7N 77W on September 7, 1882
months before the eruption at Krakatoa began and very near the antipode
of that volcano. The only other event in Colombia of M>=8 in the historical
catalog was an M 8.2 on June 18, 1826. Krakatoa is currently experience a major period of unrest and
regional geoscientists consider a major eruption is possible at this time
or in the near future.
This brief glimpse into some of the major historical events in Colombia and
Venezuela and subsequent volcanism in the Sunda arc of Venezuela suggests
that the expected seismic regime of that area is likely to see a major
volcanic eruption in the next months as well as the possibility of a
moderately large to large earthquake near the antipode of the Venezuelan
earthquakes. Such an eruption would likely have major consequences in the
near term on global weather and temperatures as seen in 1812-1815 and
in 1882-1883. Mount Merapi in Central Java is an active volcano and is near
the antipode to the Venezuelan earthquakes. Signs of such a pending eruption should be carefully monitored
in coming days." (June 27, 2026)
In addition to being nearly antipodal to the M 7.4 in Colombia of August 10, 2026
this earthquake was also at 103 degrees from Hurricane Lowell at the time
of the start of the volcanic eruption.
O: 03SEP2026 12:00:00 6.1S 105.4E VEI=5 EMSC ERUPTION OF KRAKATOA, SUNDA STRAIT, INDONESIA
O: 10AUG2026 12:34:28 5.0S 76.2W MS=7.4 EMSC COLOMBIA
O: 05SEP2026 10:59:15 4.4S 102.8E ML=5.0 EMSC SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.1 offshore Oregon was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of offshore Oregon in Yachats.
O: 05SEP2026 03:08:53 44.3N 124.9W ML=3.1 EMSC OFFSHORE OREGON
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.1 in the Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge was note felt.
This epicenter is at the seventh node (52 degrees) from Chiapas, Mexico
and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 04SEP2026 23:38:40 9.5N 40.8W MW=5.1 EMSC CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.6 in Cook Strait, New Zealand was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Cook Strait, New Zealand with IV in Wellington at Makara-Ohariu, Kapiti, Wellington and III in Porirua, Lower Hutt, Blenheim, Wanganui, Palmerston North and Masterton.
EMSC reported moderate shaking with loud rumbling in New Zealand at Paraparaumu, Upper Hutt.
GeoNet reported the following data for this event.
O: 04SEP2026 18:34:01 40.7S 174.7E ML=5.1 GEONET Felt with moderate intensity in the area of Southern North Island, New Zealand and northern South Island. 21899 reports of felt events were made of which 4741 reported weak and 10756 light intensity with 5915 reports of moderate shaking and 455 with strong and 18 severe and 12 with extreme intensity came from the area.
This epicenter is at 102 degrees from Chiapas, Mexico and may have been promoted
by energy from that source.
O: 04SEP2026 18:34:01 40.7S 174.7E MW=4.6 EMSC COOK STRAIT, NEW ZEALAND
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS EDOUARD 2026-09-05 00:00 UT 32.0N 95.0W 40 kts Eastern Texas
TS Edouard continued today over eastern Texas with winds up to 40 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and made landfall on September 2 near the Texas-Louisiana border and may help promote regional seismicity near Shreveport, Louisiana and further inland in Oklahoma and southern Texas upon landfall and for about a day after. The antipode at 32S 86E in the South Indian Ocean is not a seismic area.
HURRICANE LOWELL (12E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR LOWELL 2026-09-05 00:00 UT 13.3N 159.8W 150 kts North Pacific south of Hawaii
Hurricane Lowell continued today South of Hawaii in the North Pacific with winds up to 150 kts (Category 5 storm). It is expected to make a turn to the north and east today and tomorrow. This could bring it near Hawaii as a major hurricane around September 9-11, 2026 where it could promote enhanced seismicity. This storm is antipodal to the East African Rift near 13S 20E - a non seismic area. Enhanced seismicity at 103 and 144 degrees from Hurricane Lowell has been noted and could also continue.
HURICANE KARINA (11E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR KARINA 2026-09-05 00:00 UT 21.0N 141.2W 75 kts North Pacific
Hurricane Karina continued today in the North Pacific with winds up to 80 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate seismic hazard to the region but may arrive north of Hawaii around September 6-8 where some seismicity may be promoted. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 21S 37E near Madagascar) where little seismic enhancement is likely at this time. Enhanced seismicity has been noted at 103 and 144 degrees from the eye of Karina and this could continue.
HURRICANE MARIE (13E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR MARIE 2026-09-05 00:00 UT 20.7N 118.4W 100 kts South of Baja California, Mexico
Hurricane Marie (13E) continued today south of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 100 kts (category 2 storm). It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate local seismic hazard to the region at this time. Some models suggest this storm may change track and threaten Southern and Central California in several days as a moderate hurricane. Some regional seismicity may be enhanced in California if that does occur. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 21S 60E) where little seismic enhancement is likely at this time. Enhanced seismicity at 103 degrees from this storm has been noted and may continue.
TROPICAL STORM KROVANH (22W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TD KROVANH 2026-09-05 00:00 UT 25.4N 129.3E 40 kts East of Ryukyu Islands
TS Krovanh continued today in the region east of the Ryukyu Islands, Japan with winds up to 40 kts. This storm will be encountering the Ryukyu Islands of Japan around September 5-6 where some enhanced seismicity is possible near landfall. The antipode of this storm is at 25S 51W, a non-seismic region near Brazil.
TYPHOON SAUDEL (DEPRESSION 17W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH SAUDEL 2026-09-05 00:00 UT 23.5N 117.4E 50 kts West of Taiwan north of Guam
Typhoon Saudel continued in the area west of Taiwan today
with winds up to 50 kts. It is unlikely to promote enhanced seismicity in
the area of Honshu and Hokkaido at this time but some moderate seismic enhancement is possible in Taiwan and northern Philippines.
The antipode at 24S 63W is a seismic area in northern Chile and Argentina
and could see moderate, deep focus seismicity at this time. This storm is
expected to dissipate in the next day.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 4, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
7150 0238 0244 0250 C1.5 (September 4, 2026) 1.1E-03
7170 0608 0615 0745 C1.3 (September 4, 2026) 8.7E-04
7180 0745 0753 0800 M1.2 (September 4, 2026) 6.1E-03
Honshu M 4.1 07:45 UT
7210 1111 1119 1129 C7.1 (September 4, 2026) 4.8E-03
Kermadec Is. M 5.4 12:00 UT
7220 1258 1305 1312 C2.1 (September 4, 2026) 1.6E-03
Flores M 4.1 13:13 UT
7250 1513 1527 1553 C1.3 (September 4, 2026) 2.9E-03
Papua M 4.1 15:13 UT
Chiapas M 4.2 15:24 UT
Utah M 2.5 15:38 UT
Veracruz M 4.1 15:49 UT
7270 1902 1930 1941 C6.7 (September 4, 2026) 1.1E-02
Chiapas M 3.9 19:03 UT
Oaxaca M 4.1 19:13 UT
7300 2102 2121 2131 C1.2 (September 4, 2026) 2.0E-03
El Salvador M 4.2 21:10 UT
Yemen M 2.9 21:31 UT
Chiapas M 4.1 21:29 UT
Costa Rica M 4.5 21:41 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: quiet September 5-6 unsettled September 7. Solar M-flare chance: 15% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 4, high: 2, mid-latitude: 4, time of max k: 09:00-12:00 UT; Max k: 2 Global Kp 1.67 0900-1100, September 4; Sunspot Number: 72; Radio Flux: 110 September 4, 2026.
The Hp30 (GFZ) index did not exceed 2 over the past 24 hours. The current geomagnetic storm
has now drawn to a close. This could bring a couple of days of elevated
global seismicity especially at high latitudes and near the geomagnetic equator.
September 4, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
A strong volcanic eruption began today in Krakatoa, Indonesia. Krakatoa Volcano is located at 6.1S 105.4E. This location was at 103 degrees from Hurricane Lowell (13N 154W) when the eruption began. This location is also within about 150
km of the antipode of the M 7.5 in Colombia of August 10, 2026. At the time
this summary noted:
"An earthquake of M 4.8 was located in southern
Sumatra aboutthree hours after the Colombia mainshock within 100 km of the
exact antipode of the Colombia event. Events are antipodal if their longitudes
add to 180 degrees (in this case the longitude of Colombia is given as 77.6W
and that of Sumatra quake as 102.4E - a sum of exactly 180) and their signed
latitudes sum to zero (in this case the longitude of the Colombia event is 4.6N
and of the Sumatra event 5.5S - a difference of 0.9 degrees about 100 km
off of exact antipodal events). Geometric focusing at the antipode of a
major quake can produce seismic wave amplitudes which may be strong enough
to trigger antipodal activity as it appears to have done in this case." (November 15, 2004)
The last earthquake in Colombia of M>6.5 occurred 13 years ago on August 13, 2013.
At the time the relation to Sumatra was discussed as:
"This epicenter (in Colombia) is at the exact antipode of an M 5.3 which hit south of Sumatra two days ago and may
have been promoted or triggered by that event. Frequent readers of this
summary know that two epicenters are antipodal if their latitudes are
the same and in opposite hemispheres (6N and 6S in the current pair)
and their longitudes add to 180 and are in opposite hemispheres (78W and
102E in the current pair). Further activity in Sumatra near this epicenter
is likely in the next several days. After this was written an M 4.6 did
occur in this region of Sumatra. The earthquake off Panama is the
strongest to occur in the world since an M 7.2 in the South Sandwich Islands
of July 15, 2013, a month ago. It is also the largset within 200 km of this
epicenter to occur since events of M 7.2 on November 15, 2004; October 18, 1992 and November 19, 1991.
The 10- to 11-year cycle here is probably not coincidental but is forced
by solar activity also on an 11-year cycle." (August 13, 2013)
After a moderate earthquake in Sumatra occurred yesterday this summary discussed
the relation between Sumatra and Colombia earthquakes (see this issue below).
In particular it is worthwhile to note the antipodal relation of today's
event in Colombia with the earlier M 5.3 in Sumatra. Within error limits
imposed by depth and size of the rupture zone, these two are very nearly
exactly antipodal (compare 5S and 5N and 103E and 76W for antipodality." (August 10-11, 2026)
This summary discussed the likelihood of enhanced volcanism in Krakatoa
related to earthquakes in Venezuela (and Colombia) in previous issues.
When an M 7.5 hit Venezuela on June 24, 2026 it was noted:
"With the antipodal (to Venezeula) event of M 5.2-5.6 today south of Java, Indonesia
it is prudent to reexamine the last earthquake in Venezuela of the size
(M 7.5) of the event of June 25. This earthquake occurred on March 26, 1812 and
was associated in time with major earthquakes in New Madrid, Missouri (M 8.1)
and in the Los Angeles, California (December 8, 1812 and December 21, 1812 M 7.0) region of the same year.
What is not often associated with that event in Venezuela was a major
eruption of Tambora Volcano at 9S 118E east of Java in 1815. This is considered
by many geoscientists as the greatest volcanic eruption in modern times.
It released enough gas and particulate matter to darken the earth's skies
for several years after and caused the "year without summer" in 1816 when temperatures
in many areas dropped by significant amounts due to the sky darkening
from that volcanic eruption. This eruption began in 1812 when the "volcano
began to rumble and generated a dark cloud" (Wikipedia and Stothers, 2004, Density of fallen ash after the eruption of Tambora in 1815. Jurnal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 134 (4), 343-345.
As Tambora is very near the antipode of the
1812 earthquake in Venezuela it is likely this volcanic activity in
Indonesia was promoted by seismic effects from the earthquake in Venezuela.
The last eruption of Tambora occurred on June 20, 2026.
The area of Sumatra and Java east to Sumba in Indonesia is highly volcanic
and many of the greatest recent volcanic eruption have occurred in this
region (including Krakatoa at 6S 105E in the Sunda arc) which experienced
a similar catastrophic eruption sequence from May to October, 1883 also causing global climate and
temperature drops due to the emitted ash cloud. The antipode of Krakatoa
is in Colombia at 6N 75W, another active seismic area. One of the strongest
earthquakes recorded in Colombia was an M 8.0 at 7N 77W on September 7, 1882
months before the eruption at Krakatoa began and very near the antipode
of that volcano. The only other event in Colombia of M>=8 in the historical
catalog was an M 8.2 on June 18, 1826. Krakatoa is currently experience a major period of unrest and
regional geoscientists consider a major eruption is possible at this time
or in the near future.
This brief glimpse into some of the major historical events in Colombia and
Venezuela and subsequent volcanism in the Sunda arc of Venezuela suggests
that the expected seismic regime of that area is likely to see a major
volcanic eruption in the next months as well as the possibility of a
moderately large to large earthquake near the antipode of the Venezuelan
earthquakes. Such an eruption would likely have major consequences in the
near term on global weather and temperatures as seen in 1812-1815 and
in 1882-1883. Mount Merapi in Central Java is an active volcano and is near
the antipode to the Venezuelan earthquakes. Signs of such a pending eruption should be carefully monitored
in coming days." (June 27, 2026)
In addition to being nearly antipodal to the M 7.4 in Colombia of August 10, 2026
this earthquake was also at 103 degrees from Hurricane Lowell at the time
of the start of the volcanic eruption.
O: 03SEP2026 12:00:00 6.1S 105.4E VEI=5 EMSC ERUPTION OF KRAKATOA, SUNDA STRAIT, INDONESIA
O: 10AUG2026 12:34:28 5.0S 76.2W MS=7.4 EMSC COLOMBIA
O: 05SEP2026 10:59:15 4.4S 102.8E ML=5.0 EMSC SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.3 in the Fox Islands,
Aleutians, Alaska. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity V in Nikolski, Alaska. Today's earthquake occurred within minutes of local solar
midnight and may have been promoted by tidal and/or geomagnetic stresses which maximize near this hour. This follows a strong swarm in the area over the past several
days and had by hypothesized in the previous issue of this summary as
possible at this time as:
"The swarm in the Fox Islands, Aleutians continued today with a number of moderate
sized earthquakes including events of M 5.2 and M 5.3. This area occasionally sees swarms like this preceding
lareg event of M>=6 and this may the case in the current situation.
NEIC reported these earthquakes were felt with intensity IV
in Nikolski, Alaska." (September 2, 2026)
The last earthquakes of M>=6.3 in the Fox Islands within about 200 of today's
activity occurred on January 11, 2022 with M 6.6 and M 6.8.
When events occurred this summary noted:
"Strong earthquakes of M 6.8 and M 6.4 shook the region of the Fox Islands, Aleutians, Alaska today. NEIC reported the M 6.8 was felt with intensity VI in Nikolski; IV in Dutch Harbor, Unalaska, Falso Pass and II-III in Akutan, Atka, Cold Bay, and Adak, Alaska. The M 6.4 aftershock was reported with intensity IV in Nikolski, Alaska and III in Unalaska.
An aftershock of M 5.8 was also reported felt with intensity IV in Nikolski and Dutch Harbor, Alaska.
The last earthquake within about 250 km of this epicenter in the Fox Islands
with M>=6.8 was an M 6.9 on July 27, 2015 about 150 km west of today's epicenter." (January 11, 2022)
When an M 4.8 occurred south of Africa two days ago, this summary noted
the antipodal relation with the Fox Islands and hypothesized possible
enhanced seismicity in the Fox Islands at this time as:
"An earthquake of M 4.8 occurred today in the area southwest of Africa. It was
not reported felt in this epicentral region. The antipode of this event is at 52N 168W
in the Fox Islands, Alaska, an area where a moderate sympathetic antipodal
earthquake near 52N 166W could be expected in the next two days." (August 28, 2026)
Today's earthquakes in the Fox Islands are located at the fifth node (72 degrees)
from Mindanao and Chiapas; at the fourth node from Colombia and at the ninth node
(40 degrees) from Hurricanes Lowell and Karina and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 03SEP2026 11:17:24 52.3N 169.5W ML=6.3 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 03SEP2026 20:21:15 52.1N 169.1W ML=5.5 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 03SEP2026 18:45:39 52.0N 169.2W ML=5.3 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 03SEP2026 16:11:25 52.3N 169.4W ML=4.8 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 03SEP2026 13:03:18 52.1N 169.2W ML=5.2 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
Twenty-two minutes and 18 seconds after the M 6.3 in the Fox Islands, an earthquake of M 5.4
occurred in eastern Sichuan, China. NEIC reported the earthquake in China was felt with intensity III in Sichuan at Deyang and II in Dawan and Nanchong and in Shaanxi at Xian. Travel time tables give the time for an
SS seismic wave to travel the 63 degrees between the Fox Islands and Sichuan
as 22 minutes 20 seconds. This is therefore an excellent candidate for
triggering by a seismic wave. This earthquake in Sichuan, China occurred
at the start of Solar Flare 7000 (and was accompanied by an M 4.9 within
about a second in the Fox Islands) and these may have been promoted by
strong SFE associated with this solar flare. Data on this flare from
SWPC follow.
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
7000 1140 1147 1150 C1.1 (September 3, 2026) 5.6E-04
Sichuan, China M 5.4 11:40 UT
Fox Islands M 4.9 11:40 UT
O: 03SEP2026 11:39:42 31.9N 104.5E mb=5.4 EMSC EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.8 in Colombia was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Colombia in Bogota.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Colombia at Buenaventura, Ulloa, Cali, Envigado, Medellin, San Gil, Remedios.
O: 03SEP2026 05:17:10 4.5N 76.5W mb=4.8 EMSC COLOMBIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.2 in Java, Indonesia was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Java, Indonesia with IV in Kadungora; ?III in Banyumas and II in Purwokerto, Karawang and Kebumen, Java.
O: 04SEP2026 05:04:54 8.0S 109.0E mb=5.2 EMSC JAVA, INDONESIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.8 in Valparaiso, Chile was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Valparaiso, Chile in Santiago and Vina del Mar.
O: 03SEP2026 21:18:21 31.9S 71.2W mb=4.8 EMSC VALPARAISO, CHILE
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in the Gulf of Paria, Venezuela was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of the Gulf of Paria, Venezuela in Ciudad Guayana.
This epicenter is near the antipode of the Flores Sea earthquake M 7.7 of
August 14 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 03SEP2026 23:15:11 10.2N 62.2W ML=5.0 EMSC GULF OF PARIA, VENEZUELA
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 3.1 in Northern California was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Northern California in Santa Rosa, Fulton, Larkfield-Wikiup, Windsor, Kenwood, Graton, Sebastopol, Rohnert Park, Novato and La Riviera.
O: 03SEP2026 17:33:27 38.5N 122.7W ML=3.1 EMSC NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS EDOUARD 2026-09-04 00:00 UT 32.0N 95.0W 40 kts Eastern Texas
TS Edouard continued today over eastern Texas with winds up to 40 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and made landfall on September 2 near the Texas-Louisiana border and may help promote regional seismicity near Shreveport, Louisiana and further inland in Oklahoma and southern Texas upon landfall and for about a day after. The antipode at 32S 86E in the South Indian Ocean is not a seismic area.
HURRICANE LOWELL (12E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR LOWELL 2026-09-04 00:00 UT 13.3N 155.8W 170 kts North Pacific south of Hawaii
Hurricane Lowell continued today South of Hawaii in the North Pacific with winds up to 170 kts (Category 5 storm). It is expected to make a turn to the north and east today and tomorrow. This could bring it near Hawaii as a major hurricane around September 9-11, 2026 where it could promote enhanced seismicity. This storm is antipodal to the East African Rift near 13S 25E and could enhance seismicity in that area at this time. Enhanced seismicity at 103 and 144 degrees from Hurricane Lowell has been noted and could also continue.
HURICANE KARINA (11E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR KARINA 2026-09-04 00:00 UT 20.5N 138.2W 80 kts North Pacific
Hurricane Karina continued today in the North Pacific with winds up to 80 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate seismic hazard to the region but may reach Hawaii or north of Hawaii around September 6-8 where some seismicity may be promoted. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 20S 38E) where little seismic enhancement is likely at this time. Enhanced seismicity has been noted at 103 and 144 degrees from the eye of Karina and this could continue.
HURRICANE MARIE (13E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR MARIE 2026-09-04 00:00 UT 19.7N 116.4W 105 kts South of Baja California, Mexico
Hurricane Marie (13E) continued today south of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 105 kts (category 2 storm). It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate local seismic hazard to the region at this time. Some models suggest this storm may change track and threaten Southern and Central California in several days as a moderate hurricane. Some regional seismicity may be enhanced in California if that does occur. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 20S 63E) where some seismic enhancement is likely at this time. Enhanced seismicity at 103 degrees from this storm has been noted and may continue.
TROPICAL STORM KROVANH (22W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS KROVANH 2026-09-04 00:00 UT 26.5N 128.3E 45 kts East of Ryukyu Islands
TS Krovanh continued today in the region east of the Ryukyu Islands, Japan with winds up to 45 kts. This storm will be encountering the Ryukyu Islands of Japan around September 3-6 where some enhanced seismicity is possible near landfall. The antipode of this storm is at 27S 51W, a non-seismic region near Brazil.
TYPHOON SAUDEL (DEPRESSION 17W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH SAUDEL 2026-09-04 00:00 UT 23.5N 117.4E 50 kts West of Taiwan north of Guam
Typhoon Saudel continued in the area west of Taiwan today
with winds up to 50 kts. It is unlikely to promote enhanced seismicity in
the area of Honshu and Hokkaido at this time but some moderate seismic enhancement is possible in Taiwan and northern Philippines.
The antipode at 24S 63W is a seismic area in northern Chile and Argentina
and could see moderate, deep focus seismicity at this time. This storm is
expected to dissipate in the next day.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 3, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
6990 0935 0942 0948 C2.2 (September 3, 2026) 1.2E-03
7000 1140 1147 1150 C1.1 (September 3, 2026) 5.6E-04
Sichuan, China M 5.4 11:40 UT
Fox Islands M 4.9 11:40 UT
7010 1152 1159 1205 C4.2 (September 3, 2026) 2.2E-03
Fox Islands M 3.6 11:53 UT
7020 1436 1446 1452 C6.9 (September 3, 2026) 3.4E-03
Fox Islands M 4.2 14:39 UT
7030 1613 1630 1822 C7.9 (September 3, 2026) 1.9E-02
Fox Islands M 4.8 16:11 UT M 4.3 16:30 UT
7060 1822 1829 1833 C3.0 (September 3, 2026) 1.8E-03
Fiji M 5.0 18:31 UT
7090 1955 2003 2016 C3.7 (September 3, 2026) 4.1E-03
Fox Islands M 5.5 20:21 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: quiet September 4-6. Solar M-flare chance: 15% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 6, high: 3, mid-latitude: 6, time of max k: 06:00-09:00 UT; Max k: 2 Global Kp 2.33 0000-0300, September 3; Sunspot Number: 37; Radio Flux: 108 September 3, 2026.
The Hp30 (GFZ) index did not exceed 2 over the past 24 hours. The current goemagnetic storm
has now drawn to a close. This could bring a couple of days of elevated
global seismicity especially at high latitudes and near the geomagnetic equator.
September 3, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
The Hp30 (GFZ) index did not exceed 3 over the past 24 hours. The current geomagnetic storm
has now drawn to a close. This could bring a couple of days of elevated
global seismicity especially at high latitudes and near the geomagnetic equator.
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.3 in the Fox Islands,
Aleutians, Alaska. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity V in Nikolski, Alaska. Today's earthquake occurred within minutes of local solar
midnight and may have been promoted by tidal and/or geomagnetic stresses which maximize near this hour. This follows a strong swarm in the area over the past several
days and had by hypothesized in the previous issue of this summary as
possible at this time as:
"The swarm in the Fox Islands, Aleutians continued today with a number of moderate
sized earthquakes including events of M 5.2 and M 5.3. This area occasionally sees swarms like this preceding
lareg event of M>=6 and this may the case in the current situation.
NEIC reported these earthquakes were felt with intensity IV
in Nikolski, Alaska." (September 2, 2026)
The last earthquakes of M>=6.3 in the Fox Islands within about 200 of today's
activity occurred on January 11, 2022 with M 6.6 and M 6.8.
When events occurred this summary noted:
"Strong earthquakes of M 6.8 and M 6.4 shook the region of the Fox Islands, Aleutians, Alaska today. NEIC reported the M 6.8 was felt with intensity VI in Nikolski; IV in Dutch Harbor, Unalaska, Falso Pass and II-III in Akutan, Atka, Cold Bay, and Adak, Alaska. The M 6.4 aftershock was reported with intensity IV in Nikolski, Alaska and III in Unalaska.
An aftershock of M 5.8 was also reported felt with intensity IV in Nikolski and Dutch Harbor, Alaska.
The last earthquake within about 250 km of this epicenter in the Fox Islands
with M>=6.8 was an M 6.9 on July 27, 2015 about 150 km west of today's epicenter." (January 11, 2022)
When an M 4.8 occurred south of Africa two days ago, this summary noted
the antipodal relation with the Fox Islands and hypothesized possible
enhanced seismicity in the Fox Islands at this time as:
"An earthquake of M 4.8 occurred today in the area southwest of Africa. It was
not reported felt in this epicentral region. The antipode of this event is at 52N 168W
in the Fox Islands, Alaska, an area where a moderate sympathetic antipodal
earthquake near 52N 166W could be expected in the next two days." (August 28, 2026)
Today's earthquakes in the Fox Islands are located at the fifth node (72 degrees)
from Mindanao and Chiapas; at the fourth node from Colombia and at the ninth node
(40 degrees) from Hurricanes Lowell and Karina and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 03SEP2026 11:17:24 52.3N 169.5W ML=6.3 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 02SEP2026 07:15:05 52.1N 169.3W ML=3.8 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 02SEP2026 09:20:30 52.1N 169.2W ML=4.1 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 02SEP2026 09:59:30 52.1N 169.1W ML=3.7 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 02SEP2026 19:35:52 52.1N 169.3W ML=3.4 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 02SEP2026 07:12:42 52.2N 169.3W mb=4.0 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 02SEP2026 08:35:36 52.2N 169.1W ML=3.4 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 02SEP2026 08:55:53 52.2N 169.3W ML=3.8 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 02SEP2026 12:31:57 52.2N 169.4W mb=5.2 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
Twenty-two minutes and 18 seconds after the M 6.3 in the Fox Islands, an earthquake of M 5.4
occurred in eastern Sichuan, China. NEIC reported the earthquake in China was felt with intensity III in Sichuan at Deyang and II in Dawan and Nanchong and in Shaanxi at Xian. Travel time tables give the time for an
SS seismic wave to travel the 63 degrees between the Fox Islands and Sichuan
as 22 minutes 20 seconds. This is therefore an excellent candidate for
triggering by a seismic wave.
O: 03SEP2026 11:39:42 31.9N 104.5E mb=5.4 EMSC EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
A strong M 6.2 earthquake also occurred today in the South Sandwich Islands. It was not reported
felt in this remote epicentral area. The last earthquakes in the South Sandwich Islands
within about 200 km of this epicenter with M>=6.2 occurred on July 11, 2026 with
M 6.4 and August 12, 2021 with M 7.5. At that time this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.4 in the South Sandwich
Islands of the southern Atlantic region. It was not reported felt in this
remote area. A tsunami was neither expected nor observed with this earthquake. The last earthquake of M>=6.4 in the South Sandwich Islands was
an M 7.1 on August 22, 2021. At the time this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 7.0-7.1 in the South Sandwich
Island, the strongest aftershock to date of the August 12, 2021 M 8.1 and is
approximately the size of the earthquake in Haiti of August 14 (M 7.2).
It was accompanied by a strong series of earthquakes including an M 5.8.
Tidal stresses (see above) were near their maximum in the South Sandwich Islands
today with the full moon and probably helped enhance this activity." (August 22, 2021)
Today's earthquake in the South Sandwich Islands follows a series of moderate
to strong earthquakes which began in early July. This series was discussed
in the previous issue of this summary as:
"The strongest earthquake of the day in the world was an M 5.4 in the South Sandwich
Islands area of the South Atlantic. This area has seen seismic enhancement since
the full moon of June 29, 2026 including an M 4.9 several hours before today's
event. It had been near local solar midnight when that full moon was finalized
and was expected (by this summary) to see subsequent seismic enhancement
at this time ...
Further activity in the South Sandwich Islands is expected at this time. This
includes the possibility of a strong regional earthquake in the next several
days. The area was strong influenced by the strong geomagnetic storm of the
past several days as noted in this summary in previous issues:
"A series of earthquakes occurred at various epicenters in the South Sandwich
Islands and southwest of Africa with moderate intensity. These were all
oceanic events and were not felt in the epicentral area. This area was
near local solar noon at the time of the full moon of June 29, 2026
and had been expected to see enhanced seismicity at this time in the
seismic forecast in this summary .. " (July 3, 2026, July 11, 2026)
This epicenter is at 145 degrees from the landfall position of Typhoon Bavi
today and at the fifth node (72 degrees) from Venezuela and may have been promoted
by constructive interference of energy from those sources." (July 11, 2026)
Today's epicenter is at 103 degrees from Hurricane Marie; the third node (120 degrees)
from Hurricane Lowell; the forth node (90 degrees) from Chiapas and the fifth
node (72 degrees) from Colombia and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 02SEP2026 23:46:56 56.1S 27.9W Mw=6.2 EMSC SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
O: 02SEP2026 10:54:02 56.4S 26.8W Mw=5.2 EMSC SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.9 in the Southern East Pacific Rise was not felt in this
remote area. This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter since
an M 6.0 on May 5, 2025. At the time this summary noted:
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.0 in the South East Pacific Rise.
It was followed by an M 4.9 aftershock. Neither of these events was reported by NEIC to have been felt in this remote area.
This earthquake occurred at the height of a geomagnetic storm with regional
Kp about 6-7 at the time of the earthquake and was probably promoted by energy
associated with that storm.
This is the strongest earthquake in the southern East Pacific Rise within about 400
km of this epicenter since an M 6.7 on May 19, 2021 and prior to that an M 6.1 on June 15, 2008.
At the time of the event in 2021 this summary noted:
"Following landfall of Tauktae, a strong earthquake occurred at the antipode
of this storm in the South East Pacific Rise with M 6.6. This event was
an expected consequence of TC Tauktae as discussed above. The only earthquake
of larger magnitude in this region of the Southeast Pacific Rise in the past
30 years was an M 7.2 on October 9, 2014. At the time of this earthquake
in October, 2014, this summary noted:
"A major earthquake of M 7.0-7.1 hit the Southeast Pacific Rise near Easter Island today. This
is an area and tectonic system in which an event of this size will not generate
a sizable tsunami. The epicenter was near the triple junction of the East Pacific
Rise. The mainshock was followed by an M 6.0-6.5 aftershock 17 minutes later.
An ScS phase returning to the epicenter after reflecting off the core-mantle boundary
could have triggered the strong aftershock as it arrived 1-2 minutes prior to this event. This is the strongest earthquake ever recorded within 400 km of this epicenter.
The previous largest event was an M 7.0 on March 20, 1920, the only event of M>6.9
previously recorded in the region. An M 6.6 hit the region on October 28, 1981 and an
M 6.8 occurred in July, 1949 and again in July, 1950. This suggests about a 31-32 year
incubation period for strong earthquakes in this area (1920, 1950, 1981, 2014). In addition to tidal stresses from the full moon today, this event may have
been promoted by a pair of M-class solar flares which occurred about 15 minutes
before the quake initiated. At this point M-class flares are relatively rare.
In the past month there have been only six M1.3 -class flares or larger recorded.
The last of these was an M7.3 on October 2. The antipode of this event is
in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border region at 32N 69E." (October 9-10, 2014, May 19, 2021)
The epicenter in the Southeast Pacific Rise is antipodal to an active area of
Hindu Kush, Afghanistan, and while it is relatively small for triggering
far-field earthquakes, the Pacific event may enhance seismicity in Afghanistan
and Pakistan in the next several days due to its antipodal position." (May 5, 2025)
and
"Following landfall of Tauktae, a strong earthquake occurred at the antipode
of this storm in the South East Pacific Rise with M 6.6. This event was
an expected consequence of TC Tauktae as discussed above. The only earthquake
of larger magnitude in this region of the Southeast Pacific Rise in the past
30 years was an M 7.2 on October 9, 2014." (May 19, 2021)
This epicenter is antipodal to an earthquake in Afghanistan yesterday as reported
in the previous issue of this summary:
"EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in Central Afghanistan was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Central Afghanistan in Bagrami, Kabul, and Chandal Ba'i.
O: 02SEP2026 01:47:22 34.4N 69.5E MB=4.2 EMSC CENTRAL AFGHANISTAN " (September 2, 2026)
Today's earthquake in the South Pacific Rise was near the seventh node from
Colombia and Chiapas and Hurricane Marie (52 degrees) and at the sixth node
(60 degrees) from Hurricane Karina and may have been promoted by energy from those
sources.
O: 02SEP2026 12:35:58 34.9S 109.1W Mw=5.9 EMSC SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
The earthquake in the Southern East Pacific Rise (see above) followed a moderately strong
earthquake off shore Chiapas, Mexico 7 minutes 26 seconds later at a distance
of 51.4 degrees (node 7). The p-wave from Mexico would have arrived in the
South Pacific Rise epicentral area within seconds of the time of this M 5.9
and may have helped promote the M 5.9 in the East Pacific. The M 5.6 in
Chiapas today is the strongest aftershock in Chiapas, Mexico of July 17, 2026 since an M
5.7 on August 18 and an M 5.9 on July 28 and is the third strongest aftershock
since the date of the mainshock.
This epicenter in Chiapas, Mexico is at 20 degrees from Hurricane Marie; 40 degrees
from Hurricane Karina and 60 degrees from Hurricane Lowell and 145 degrees from
Flores, Indonesia and may have been promoted by constructive interference of energy from those sources.
O: 03SEP2026 09:09:58 16.3N 93.6W ML=4.1 EMSC CHIAPAS, MEXICO
O: 02SEP2026 12:58:03 14.0N 93.4W ML=4.2 EMSC OFF COAST OF CHIAPAS, MEXICO
O: 02SEP2026 13:04:59 14.0N 93.5W ML=4.3 EMSC OFF COAST OF CHIAPAS, MEXICO
O: 02SEP2026 13:43:14 14.2N 93.3W mb=4.3 EMSC OFF COAST OF CHIAPAS, MEXICO
O: 02SEP2026 16:50:35 14.2N 93.6W ML=4.3 EMSC OFF COAST OF CHIAPAS, MEXICO
O: 03SEP2026 07:49:26 14.2N 93.2W ML=4.3 EMSC OFF COAST OF CHIAPAS, MEXICO
O: 02SEP2026 18:43:23 14.3N 93.2W ML=4.1 EMSC OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
O: 02SEP2026 12:54:48 14.4N 93.2W ML=4.1 EMSC OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
O: 02SEP2026 12:28:32 14.5N 93.0W Mw=5.6 EMSC OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
O: 03SEP2026 05:36:02 15.0N 92.9W ML=4.3 EMSC OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.1 in Coquimbo, Chile was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Coquimbo Chile in La Serena (IV) and Vicuna (III).
EMSC reported intensity III-IV in Chile in Vallenar, Coquimbo, La Serena, Coquimbo.
O: 03SEP2026 06:04:02 29.8S 71.5W Mw=5.1 EMSC OFFSHORE COQUIMBO, CHILE
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.8 in Colombia was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Colombia in Bogota.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Colombia at Buenaventura, Ulloa, Cali, Envigado, Medellin, San Gil, Remedios.
O: 03SEP2026 05:17:10 4.5N 76.5W mb=4.8 EMSC COLOMBIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.4 in Vanuatu may have been felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Isangel, Vanuatu.
This epicenter is at 102 degrees from Chiapas, Mexico and may have been promoted
by energy from that source.
O: 02SEP2026 21:22:08 20.3S 169.4E Mw=5.4 EMSC VANUATU
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.4 in New Guinea was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Bulolo, Papua New Guinea.
This epicenter is at 102 degrees from Hurricane Marie and may have been promoted
by energy from that source.
O: 02SEP2026 20:04:32 7.1S 146.2E Mw=5.4 EMSC EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.1 in eastern Los Angeles, California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of eastern Los Angeles, California with IV in Brea and III in Anaheim, Ontario, Chino, Norco, Mira Loma, Corona, Rosemead.
O: 02SEP2026 12:37:12 34.0N 117.6W ML=3.1 EMSC GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALI
O: 02SEP2026 12:37:12 34.0N 117.6W ML=3.2 NEIC GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALI
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.0 in Costa Rica was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Costa Rica in David, Panama.
O: 02SEP2026 23:29:31 9.2N 84.1W ML=4.0 EMSC COSTA RICA
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS EDOUARD 2026-09-03 00:00 UT 32.0N 95.0W 40 kts Eastern Texas
TS Edouard continued today over eastern Texas with winds up to 40 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and made landfall on September 2 near the Texas-Louisiana border and may help promote regional seismicity near Shreveport, Louisiana and further inland in Oklahoma and southern Texas upon landfall and for about a day after. The antipode at 32S 86E in the South Indian Ocean is not a seismic area.
HURRICANE LOWELL (12E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR LOWELL 2026-09-03 00:00 UT 13.3N 154.0W 165 kts North Pacific south of Hawaii
TS Lowell continued today South of Hawaii in the North Pacific with winds up to 165 kts (Category 5 storm). It intensified greatly yesterday in the North Pacific and is expected to make a turn to the north and east today and tomorrow. This could bring it near Hawaii as a major hurricane around September 9-11, 2026 where it could promote enhanced seismicity. This storm is antipodal to the East African Rift near 13S 25E and could enhance seismicity in that area at this time. Enhanced seismicity at 103 and 144 degrees from Hurricane Lowell has been noted and could continue.
HURICANE KARINA (11E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR KARINA 2026-09-03 00:00 UT 19.2N 134.2W 140 kts North Pacific
Hurricane Karina continued today in the North Pacific with winds up to 140 kts (category 4-5 storm). It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate seismic hazard to the region but may reach Hawaii or north of Hawaii around September 6-8 where some seismicity may be promoted. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 19S 46E) where little seismic enhancement is likely at this time. Enhanced seismicity has been noted at 103 and 144 degrees from the eye of Karina and this could continue.
TROPICAL STORM MARIE (13E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS MARIE 2026-09-03 00:00 UT 14.0N 112.3W 75 kts South of Baja California, Mexico
TS Marie (13E) formed today south of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 75 kts (category 2 storm). It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate local seismic hazard to the region at this time. Some models suggest this storm may change track and threaten Southern and Central California in several days as a moderate hurricane. Some regional seismicity may be enhanced in California if that does occur. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 14S 67E) where some seismic enhancement is likely at this time.
TROPICAL STORM KROVANH (22W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS KROVANH 2026-09-03 00:00 UT 26.5N 129.3E 50 kts East of Ryukyu Islands
TS Krovanh continued today in the region east of the Ryukyu Islands, Japan with winds up to 50 kts. This storm will be encountering the Ryukyu Islands of Japan around September 3-6 where some enhanced seismicity is possible near landfall. The antipode of this storm is at 27S 51W, a non-seismic region near Brazil.
TYPHOON SAUDEL (DEPRESSION 17W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH SAUDEL 2026-09-03 00:00 UT 23.5N 117.4E 50 kts West of Taiwan north of Guam
Typhoon Saudel continued in the area west of Taiwan today
with winds up to 50 kts. It is unlikely to promote enhanced seismicity in
the area of Honshu and Hokkaido at this time but some moderate seismic enhancement is possible in Taiwan and northern Philippines.
The antipode at 24S 63W is a seismic area in northern Chile and Argentina
and could see moderate, deep focus seismicity at this time. This storm is
expected to dissipate in the next day.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 2, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
6830 1309 1321 1327 C1.2 (September 2, 2026) 9.5E-04
6850 1533 1547 1604 C1.3 (September 2, 2026) 2.0E-03
6870 1618 1630 1639 C1.5 (September 2, 2026) 1.5E-03
6890 1857 1920 2130 M3.0 (September 2, 2026) 5.7E-02 *
New Guinea M 5.4 20:04 UT
Vanuatu M 5.4 21:22 UT
South Sandwich Is. M 6.2 23:46 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: quiet September 3-5. Solar M-flare chance: 15% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 6, high: 8, mid-latitude: 6, time of max k: 06:00-09:00 UT; Max k: 4 Global Kp 2.33 0600-0900, September 2; Sunspot Number: 73; Radio Flux: 102 September 2, 2026.
The Hp30 (GFZ) index did not exceed 3 over the past 24 hours. The current goemagnetic storm
has now drawn to a close. This could bring a couple of days of elevated
global seismicity especially at high latitudes and near the geomagnetic equator.
September 2, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
An unusual series of moderate earthquakes occurred today in the Mid-Indian Ridge.
These events of M 4.6, 4.6 and 4.7 are the strongest earthquakes recorded
within about 200 km of these epicenters since an M 5.5 on June 7, 2025.
At the time this summary noted:
"An earthquake of M 5.5 also occurred today near Reunion in the South Indian Ocean. It was followed
by several moderate regional aftershocks. It was preceded by an M 4.5 foreshock
slightly to the north of the mainquake. This mainshock occurred within minutes of
local solar midnight and may have been promoted by tidal and/or geomagnetic
stresses which seismic effects are maximized near this hour. At the same time the first named Tropical
Storm of the season formed in the area south of Michoacan, Mexico (Cosme). TS Barbara was also forming in the
area near Michoacan at the time. These events (Cosme and the Indian Ocean quakes)
events (and the foreshock) are exactly antipodal (within 50 km) of each other and illustrate
the seismic triggering potential of major oceanic storms. Readers can
check antipodality of these from the following data with storm data from JTWC
(Joint Typhoon Warming Center) and earthquake data from EMSC:
TROPICAL STORM COSME (03E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS COSME 2025-06-08 00:00 UT 14.9N 113.7W 090 kts West of Michoacan, Mexico
Tropical Storm Cosme 03E continued today in the area off southwestern Mexico with winds up to 80 kts. It is expected to track to the north over the next several days reaching an area near Cabo San Lucas, Baja Mexico around June 10. After that it could help promote seismicity in the region of the Gulf of California and Baja, Mexico. It will pass over the currently active area of Revilla Gigedo, Mexico in the next two days and could help enhance existing seismicity in that area. The antipode is at 15S 67.0E in the South Indian Ocean, an area where an M 5.5 occurred within an hour of this TS initiation. It is likely that
antipodal effects associated with TS Cosme and /or Barbara triggered the earthquakes
in the Indian Ocean coincident with the TS formation.
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA (02E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS BARBARA 2025-06-09 00:00 UT 17.9N 106.5W 080 kts West of Michoacan, Mexico
Tropical Storm Barbara 02E continued today in the area off southwestern Mexico with winds up to 80 kts. It is expected to track to the north over the next several days reaching an area near Cabo San Lucas, Baja Mexico around June 10. After that it could help promote seismicity in the region of the Gulf of California and Baja, Mexico. It will pass over the currently active area of Revilla Gigedo, Mexico in the next two days and could help enhance existing seismicity in that area. The antipode is at 17S 74.5E in the South Indian Ocean, an area where an M 5.5 occurred within an hour of this TS initiation ..." (June 7, 2025)
Today's swarm was likewise closely related to a series of tropical cyclones
off the southern coast of Baja California - at the same position as Cosme was
in June 7, 2025. The current storms included Hurricane Karina
and Hurricane Marie. Each of these began within about 100 km of the antipode
of the epicenters in the Indian Ocean. In particular, TS Marie formed over the
past day at the antipode of the events in the Indian Ocean concurrent
with those antipodal events. This summary had noted this at the time
and hypothesized subsequent enhanced seismicity in the Indian Ocean as:
"TS Karina formed today South of Baja California with winds up to 50 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate seismic hazard to the region. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 13S 66E) where some seismic enhancement is possible at this time." (August 28, 2026)
and
"TS Marie (13E) formed today south of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 75 kts (category 2 storm). It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate local seismic hazard to the region at this time. Some models suggest this storm may change track and threaten Southern and Central California in several days as a moderate hurricane. Some regional seismicity may be enhanced in California if that does occur. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 14S 67E) where some seismic enhancement is likely at this time." (September 2, 2026)
In addition to being antipodal to Hurricane Marie these epicenters are also
at 143 degrees from Hurricane Lowell and the M 7.4 in Colombia and may have
been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 01SEP2026 22:37:44 13.2S 66.5E MB=4.6 EMSC MID-INDIAN RIDGE
O: 01SEP2026 23:45:24 13.2S 66.6E mb=4.6 EMSC MID-INDIAN RIDGE
O: 01SEP2026 22:42:10 13.3S 66.6E mb=4.7 EMSC MID-INDIAN RIDGE
The swarm in the Fox Islands, Aleutians continued today with a number of moderate
sized earthquakes including events of M 5.2 and M 5.3. This area occasionally sees swarms like this preceding
lareg event of M>=6 and this may the case in the current situation.
NEIC reported these earthquakes were felt with intensity IV
in Nikolski, Alaska.
The last earthquakes of M>=5.3 in the Fox Islands within about 200 of today's
activity occurred on May 22 and 23, 2026 with M 5.3 and M 5.6. When an M 6.1 occurred
on February 23, 2026 within about 100 km of today's epicenters this summary
noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 6.1 in the Fox Islands,
Aleutians, Alaska. It was followed by an M 5.5 aftershock.
NEIC reported these events were likely felt near Nikolski, Alaska with intensity up to IV.
The M 4.4 occurred near local solar midninght and may have been promoted by tidal and geomagnetic effects." (February 23, 2026)
When an M 4.8 occurred south of Africa two days ago, this summary noted
the antipodal relation with the Fox Islands and hypothesized possible
enhanced seismicity in the Fox Islands at this time as:
"An earthquake of M 4.8 occurred today in the area southwest of Africa. It was
not reported felt in this epicentral region. The antipode of this event is at 52N 168W
in the Fox Islands, Alaska, an area where a moderate sympathetic antipodal
earthquake near 52N 166W could be expected in the next two days." (August 28, 2026)
Today's earthquakes in the Fox Islands are located at 101 degrees from Colombia
at the sixth node (60 degrees) from Hurricane Karina; at the seventh node (52 degrees) from
Hurricane Lowell and at the fifth node (72 degrees) from Flores, Indonesia
and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 01SEP2026 16:50:59 52.0N 169.3W ML=3.2 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 06:52:12 52.1N 169.2W ML=3.8 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 07:19:35 52.1N 169.3W ML=3.5 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 07:30:15 52.1N 169.3W ML=4.1 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 07:39:34 52.1N 169.2W ML=3.1 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 08:06:48 52.1N 169.3W ML=4.1 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 08:18:45 52.1N 169.2W ML=4.2 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 08:39:12 52.1N 169.3W ML=3.1 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 09:02:40 52.1N 169.2W ML=3.6 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 09:49:01 52.1N 169.2W ML=3.3 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 15:10:27 52.1N 169.3W ML=3.4 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 18:42:50 52.1N 169.2W ML=3.1 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 02SEP2026 05:18:15 52.1N 169.2W ML=3.9 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 02SEP2026 05:40:52 52.1N 169.2W mb=4.6 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 02SEP2026 07:15:05 52.1N 169.3W ML=3.8 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 06:44:36 52.2N 169.4W Mw=5.3 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 06:56:33 52.2N 169.3W ML=3.2 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 07:05:59 52.2N 169.3W ML=4.5 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 07:12:40 52.2N 169.3W ML=3.7 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 07:26:51 52.2N 169.3W ML=3.5 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 08:35:06 52.2N 169.3W ML=3.4 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 10:25:23 52.2N 169.2W ML=3.8 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 13:47:15 52.2N 169.4W mb=4.6 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 20:47:12 52.2N 169.4W ML=4.5 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 22:33:15 52.2N 169.3W ML=3.5 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 02SEP2026 05:10:27 52.2N 169.3W mb=4.9 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 02SEP2026 05:14:00 52.2N 169.3W mb=5.2 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 02SEP2026 05:54:58 52.2N 169.3W mb=4.6 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 02SEP2026 07:12:42 52.2N 169.3W mb=4.0 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 07:45:39 52.3N 169.4W mb=4.5 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 02SEP2026 06:42:19 52.3N 169.3W ML=4.3 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
NEIC reported earthquakes of M 5.2 and M 5.3 in South Island, New Zealand were felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of South Island, New Zealand with IV in Wanaka, Otago and III in Queenstown, Cromwell, Te Anau, Alexandra and II in Oqmaru, Canterbury, Gore, Palmerston, Clyde, Otago.
These are the strongest earthquakes in central South Island near Arthur's Point since an
M 5.5 on June 24, 2020. At the time this summary noted:
"An earthquake of M 5.5-6.0 shook the area of southwestern South Island, New Zealand today. NEIC repored maximum shaking IV in Te Anau and II-III in Queenstown, Wanaka, Riverton, Invercargil, Southland and Dunedin, Otago, New Zealand.
GEONET reported 3737 people felt this quake with 1892 with weak intensity; 1483 with light intensity and 328 with moderate intensity. 24 reported strong shaking, 4 with severe intensity and 6 extreme intensity.
GeoNet reported M 5.9-6.0 for this event the preferred magnitude from the local network. The epicenter is at 104 degrees from the epicenter of the M 7.5-7.7 in Oaxaca,
Mexico yesterday and was likely promoted by concentrated energy from that source
(at 103 degrees distance) is expected in previous issues of this report (see above).
The last earthquake in South Island, New Zealand with M>=6 within about 200 km
of today's epicenter occurred on August 5, 2009 with M 6.1 following a mainshock of M 7.7 on July 15, 2009.
Forecast 125215 had expected today's activity in the area in this region was
likely around June 24. This epicenter is at 104-105 degrees from the M 7.7
earthquake in Oaxaca, Mexico yesterday and was probably promoted by concentrated
energy from that source." (June 24, 2020)
GeoNet reported the following data for these events:
O: 02SEP2026 07:12:41 44.4S 168.3E ML=4.6 GEONET Felt with moderate intensity in the area south of Te Anau, South Island. 391 reports of felt intensity came from the area east and north of the epicenter including 286 with weak intensity; 97 light; 8 moderate; 0 strong; 0 severe and 0 extreme.
O: 02SEP2026 07:39:03 44.4S 168.3E ML=4.8 GEONET Felt with moderate intensity in the area south of Te Anau, South Island. 805 reports of felt intensity came from the area east and north of the epicenter including 475 with weak intensity; 266 light; 62 moderate; 1 strong; 0 severe and 1 extreme.
Today's epicenters are at 106 degrees from Chiapas, Mexico and at the fourth node from
Hurricane Marie (90 degrees) and were likely promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 02SEP2026 06:13:34 44.4S 168.3E MB=5.3 EMSC SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
O: 02SEP2026 06:57:13 44.4S 168.3E Mw=5.2 EMSC SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.6 in Northern California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Northern California in Middletown.
O: 02SEP2026 03:49:01 38.8N 122.6W MD=2.6 EMSC NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.6 in Papua, Indonesia was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Papua, Indonesia in Abepura with intensity IV.
O: 02SEP2026 00:04:55 3.3S 139.3E MB=5.6 EMSC PAPUA, INDONESIA
O: 02SEP2026 10:45:53 2.4S 139.0E ML=4.0 EMSC NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.3 in Mindanao, Philippines was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Mindanao, Philippines with intensity IV in San Jose, Kiblawan, Davao del Sur, Buayan and II-III in Katangawan, Balutakay, Barra and Carpenter Hill.
A small foreshock occurred yesterday and this summary noted it as:
"NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.0 in the Mindanao, Philippines aftershock zone was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Mindanao, Philippines aftershock zone.
This latitude (5 North) is currently at sub-solar conditions on this date with
the sun directly overhead at local solar noon. These conditions can lead to
enhanced seismicity at this latitude and a stronger earthquakes in the aftershock
zone of Mindanao (following the M 7.8 of June 7, 2026) may follow in the next
couple of days. Like the current circumstances, the mainshock in June followed
a major geomagnetic storm and lies near the geomagnetic equator, both
conditions which could contribute to higher magnitudes at this time." (September 1, 2026)
O: 01SEP2026 13:22:31 5.2N 125.8E MW=5.3 EMSC MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.6 in Southern Texas was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern Texas in Falls City, and Hobson.
This area near Falls City has seen a number of light earthquakes in the
past several years. But events of M>=3.5 have been a rare occurrence.
The last such events within about 100 km of today's epicenter occurred on July 12, 2026
also with M 3.6 but the last of larger magnitude was an M 4.5 on January 30, 2025.
At the time this summary noted:
"A moderate M 4.5 earthquake occurred in the Falls City, Southern Texas region today. NEIC reported this earthquake was felt with maximum intensity V in Southern Texas at Gillett, Bastrop; IV in Ecleto, Falls City, Hobson, Karnes City, Kenedy, Poth, Runge, Stockdale, San Antonio; III in Whitney, Richmond, Devine, Jourdanton, Kerrville, Pleasanton, Adkins, Cibolo, Converse, Floresville, La Vernia, Marion, New Braunfels, Nixon, Saint Hedwig, Schertz, Seguin, Smiley, Sutherland Springs, Yorktown, San Antonio, Burnet, Del Valle, Elgin, Leander, Manor, Round Rock Austin and as far as 200 km from the epicenter.
It may have been promoted by the new moon which arrived today as described in this
summary as:
...
This earthquake follows a series of minor to moderate quakes in the area over the past several years and has been
covered in this summary. Two earthquakes of M>=4.5 have hit this area within about
200 km of this epicenter in the past 35 years - an M 4.8 on October 20, 2011 and an M 4.7 on February 7, 2024. When the M 4.4 and 4.7 hit the area on
February 17, 2024, this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.7 in southern Texas. This event was reported by NEIC to have been felt with intensity up to VI in Falls City, Texas.
Aftershocks of M 3.7 and 3.3 followed and were felt in the same area. EMSC reported
the mainshocks were felt as far as San Antonio where beds shook and people were awakened. It followed
a series of foreshocks including an M 4.4 twelve minutes earlier which was felt with intensity
up to V in Falls City, Texas. An M 3.9 foreshock was also felt with intensity up to
V in the Falls City area of Texas. Today's activity occurred within minutes
of local solar midnight and may have been promoted by strong tidal stresses ..." (January 30, 2025)
Today's event in southern Texas occured simultaneously with the landfall
of Tropical Storm Edouard on the coast of Texas. On August 31, this summary
anticipated this possible seismic enhancement with the landfall of TS Edouard
as:
"TS Edouard formed today off southern Louisiana with winds up to 40 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate seismic hazard to the region. It will make landfall on September 1-2 near the Texas-Louisiana border and may help promote regional seismicity near Shreveport, Louisiana and further inland in Oklahoma and Texas upong landfall. The antipode at 29S 88E is not a seismic area." (August 31, 2026)
O: 01SEP2026 14:26:42 28.9N 98.1W ML=3.5 EMSC SOUTHERN TEXAS
O: 01SEP2026 14:26:42 28.9N 98.1W ML=3.6 NEIC SOUTHERN TEXAS
O: 01SEP2026 18:26:48 28.9N 98.1W ML=2.0 EMSC SOUTHERN TEXAS
O: 01SEP2026 19:23:08 28.9N 98.1W ML=2.8 EMSC SOUTHERN TEXAS
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.8 in Halmahera, Indonesia.
NEIC reported it may have been felt with intensity up to VI in the epicentral area near Maba, Indonesia.
This epicenter was at 103 degrees from the eye of of Hurricane Karina when this
earthquake occurred. This is similar to the distance from Flores Sea event of
M 5.5 earlier in the day with Hurricane Lowell (see below) and suggests
seismic promotion at this distance from these two storms. This has been
observed and commented on in this summary on many previous occasions and
probably should not be considered coincidental.
O: 01SEP2026 08:22:22 0.3N 128.8E MB=5.6 EMSC HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
O: 01SEP2026 08:22:20 0.2N 128.8E MB=5.6 NEIC HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in Central Afghanistan was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Central Afghanistan in Bagrami, Kabul, and Chandal Ba'i.
O: 02SEP2026 01:47:22 34.4N 69.5E MB=4.2 EMSC CENTRAL AFGHANISTAN
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.3 in Java, Indonesia was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Java, Indonesia in Cianjur, Bogor, Depok, and Serpong.
O: 01SEP2026 10:53:10 6.9S 107.1E ML=4.3 EMSC JAVA, INDONESIA
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS EDOUARD 2026-09-02 00:00 UT 31.0N 94.0W 40 kts Eastern Texas
TS Edouard continued today over eastern Texas with winds up to 40 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and made landfall on September 2 near the Texas-Louisiana border and may help promote regional seismicity near Shreveport, Louisiana and further inland in Oklahoma and southern Texas upong landfall. The antipode at 31S 86E is not a seismic area.
HURRICANE LOWELL (12E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR LOWELL 2026-09-02 00:00 UT 13.0N 151.0W 170 kts North Pacific south of Hawaii
TS Lowell continued today South of Hawaii in the North Pacific with winds up to 170 kts (Category 5 storm). It intensified greatly today in the North Pacific and is expected to make a turn to the north and east today and tomorrow. This could bring it near Hawaii as a major hurricane around September 9-11, 2026 where it could promote enhanced seismicity. This storm is antipodal to the East African Rift near 13S 27E and could enhance seismicity in that area at this time.
HURICANE KARINA (11E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR KARINA 2026-09-02 00:00 UT 18.0N 131.3W 145 kts North Pacific
Hurricane Karina continued today in the North Pacific with winds up to 145 kts (category 4-5 storm). It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate seismic hazard to the region but may reach Hawaii or north of Hawaii around September 6-8 where some seismicity may be promoted. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 18S 47E) where little seismic enhancement is likely at this time.
TROPICAL STORM MARIE (13E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS MARIE 2026-09-02 00:00 UT 14.0N 112.3W 75 kts South of Baja California, Mexico
TS Marie (13E) formed today south of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 75 kts (category 2 storm). It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate local seismic hazard to the region at this time. Some models suggest this storm may change track and threaten Southern and Central California in several days as a moderate hurricane. Some regional seismicity may be enhanced in California if that does occur. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 14S 67E) where some seismic enhancement is likely at this time.
TROPICAL STORM KROVANH (22W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS KROVANH 2026-09-02 00:00 UT 24.5N 131.3E 45 kts East of Ryukyu Islands
TS Krovanh continued today in the region east of Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands, Japan with winds up to 50 kts. It is unlikely to promote enhanced seismicity at this time but this could change as it tracks to the northwest over the next week encountering the Ryukyu and Kyushu Islands of Japan around September 4-6 where some enhanced seismicity is possible near landfall. The antipode of this storm is at 25S 49W, a non-seismic region near Brazil.
TYPHOON SAUDEL (DEPRESSION 17W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH SAUDEL 2026-09-02 00:00 UT 21.5N 116.4E 50 kts West of Taiwan north of Guam
Typhoon Saudel continued in the area west of Taiwan today
with winds up to 50 kts. It is unlikely to promote enhanced seismicity in
the area of Honshu and Hokkaido at this time but some moderate seismic enhancement is possible in Taiwan and northern Philippines.
The antipode at 22S 65W is a seismic area in Bolivia and northern Chile
and could see moderate seismicity at this time.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of September 1, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
XXXX 1900 1920 2130 M3.0 (September 2, 2026) 3.0E-03
New Guinea M 5.4 20:04 UT
Vanuatu M 5.4 21:22 UT
South Sandwich Is. M 6.2 23:46 UT
6740 2104 2110 2112 C5.7 (September 1, 2026) 1.3E-03
New Mexico M 2.4 21:09 UT
6750 2240 2246 2254 C1.1 (September 1, 2026) 9.3E-04
Mid-Indian Ridge M 4.2, M 4.7 22:37 UT 22:42 UT
Vera Cruz, Mexico M 4.0 22:55 UT
6760 2317 2338 2358 C1.9 (September 1, 2026) 3.7E-03
Mid-Indian Ridge M 4.6 23:45 UT
Azerbaijan M 3.9 23:39 UT
Papua M 5.67 00:04 UT
Kyushu M 4.0 23:24 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: quiet September 2-4. Solar M-flare chance: 15% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 7, high: 8, mid-latitude: 8, time of max k: 12:00-15:00 UT; Max k: 4 Global Kp 2.67 0900-1200, September 1; Sunspot Number: 55; Radio Flux: 101 September 1, 2026.
The Hp30 (GFZ) index did not exceed 3 over the past 24 hours. The current goemagnetic storm
has now drawn to a close. This could bring a couple of days of elevated
global seismicity especially at high latitudes and near the geomagnetic equator.
September 1, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
The Hp30 (GFZ) index did not exceed 3 over the past 24 hours. No major solar flares were observed. The current goemagnetic storm
is apparently drawing to a close. This could bring a couple of days of elevated
global seismicity especially at high latitudes and near the geomagnetic equator.
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.8 in Halmahera, Indonesia.
NEIC reported it may have been felt with intensity up to VI in the epicentral area near Maba, Indonesia.
This epicenter was at 103 degrees from the eye of of Hurricane Karina when this
earthquake occurred. This is similar to the distance from Flores Sea event of
M 5.5 earlier in the day with Hurricane Lowell (see below) and suggests
seismic promotion at this distance from these two storms. This has been
observed and commented on in this summary on many previous occasions and
probably should not be considered coincidental.
O: 01SEP2026 08:22:22 0.3N 128.8E MB=5.6 EMSC HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
The second strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.5 aftershock in the Flores Sea aftershock sequence.
NEIC reported it was likely felt with intensity up to VI inthe epicentral area near Ruteng, Indonesia.
This is the strongest aftershock in the region since an M 5.7 on August 20, 2026.
It may have been promoted by the tidal effects oif the full moon and lunar eclipse
of August 28 and it occurred at a longitude of maximum stress with that
alignment as reported in previous issues of this summary:
"The full moon and lunar eclipse will arrive on August 28, 2026 at 04:18 UT. This eclipse will be a partial visible in the Americas, Europe and Africa with peak at 04:14 UT.i The maximum eclipse will be visible in Bolivia and northern Chile and southern Peru where the M 6.7 occurred several days ago. Lunar eclipses following two weeks after solar eclipses often continue enhanced seismicity begun with the solar eclipse and can trigger new seismicity in areas where the eclipse is visible. This is the largest magnitude partial lunar eclipse of the Saros 138 series which lasts for 1450 years starting in 1521 and ending in 2982 so it is significant in that sense. This in turn, considerably enhances tidal stresses (at the inverse third power of distance) and can lead to larger global earthquakes within a couple of days of the full moon. Longitudes at local solar noon are near 115 East and those at local solar midnight are near 65 West longitude. In the west these include the northern and Eastern Caribbean as well as areas of western South America while in the East longitudes near 120 E are located in the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and Indonesia among others. These are the most likely areas to see tidal triggering at this time, but other areas could see significant enhancement in seismicity in the next several days. These would most likely see seismic enhancement near local solar noon or midnight. A strong to major earthquake is considered likely with this new moon." (August 25-26, 2026)
This activity is at 145 degrees from Chiapas, Mexico and may have been promoted by energy from that source,
It is also near 102 degrees from the eye of Tropical Storm Lowell at the time
of occurrence. The mainshock of August 14, 2026 (M 7.7) occurred at a distance
of Hurricane Hernan at the time of its occurrence as noted at the time in this
summary:
"The M 7.7 in the Flores area of Indonesia was located at 104 degrees from
the eye of TS Hernan at the time of its occurrence. At the same time it was at the
fourth node (90 degrees) from the eye and landfall of Hurricane Lala. This is difficult to reconcile
with a shrug and the word "coincidence" and thus the aforementioned statement." (August 17, 2026)
O: 31AUG2026 08:03:28 8.2S 120.6E mb=5.5 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 31AUG2026 06:53:47 8.2S 120.6E ML=4.0 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 01SEP2026 06:20:33 8.4S 120.6E ML=4.0 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 31AUG2026 12:01:16 8.4S 121.5E ML=4.0 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 31AUG2026 14:25:53 8.4S 119.4E ML=4.1 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
A moderate earthquake of M 4.6 also occurred today off the coast of northern California. This is the
second such earthquake in the area in the past three days and could indicate
stress buildup in the region. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II in Whitethorn and Eureka, California.
At the time of the M 4.9 in this area on August 28, this summary noted:
The earthquake in Northern California was reported by EMSC to have been felt with intensity enough to shaking houses in Ferndale and Scotia, California.
This is the largest earthquake off the coast of Northern California since an M 5.1
and M 5.7 on June 3, 2026 and before that in December, 2024 when a strong
mainshock of M 7.0 was recorded near today's event. Like today's event
offshore Northern California the earthquake of June, 2026 was closely
associated with a strong geomagnetic storm - the second strongest of the
past three months. At the time of the June, 2026 events this summary noted:
"A moderate earthquakeof M 5.1 off the coast of northern California was followed
by a series of lighter earthquakes later in the day. The mainshock was reported
felt with intensity IV in Alderpoint and III in Whitethorn, Scotia, Redcrest, Petrolia, Blue Lake, Samoa, Westpot and II in Garberville and Ferndale, California.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.5 off the coast of Northern California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Northern California with IV inCarlotta, Piercy, Eureka and III in Hoopa, McKinleyville, Petrolia, Whitethorn and II in Santa Rosa, and Bayside.
An M 4.0 was also felt with intensity II in Petrolia, California." (June 4, 2026)
and
"A strong geomagnetic storm of G1-G2 level occurred around the earth today
starting around 15:30 UT. Kp with this storm reached 6.57 around 18:00 UT.
Some enhancement of seismicity was observed with the onset of this storm" (June 5, 2026)
O: 31AUG2026 08:36:48 40.5N 126.4W MB=4.4 NEIC OFF COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORN
O: 31AUG2026 08:36:47 40.4N 126.6W MB=4.4 EMSC OFF COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORN
O: 31AUG2026 21:38:46 40.7N 127.0W ML=2.9 EMSC OFF COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.3 in the Fox Islands,
Aleutians, Alaska. This was part of a swarm of five events today with M>=4.5
in the Fox Islands. NEIC reported this earthquake was felt with intensity IV
in Nikolski, Alaska.
The last earthquakes of M>=5.3 in the Fox Islands within about 200 of today's
activity occurred on May 22 and 23, 2026 with M 5.3 and M 5.6. When an M 6.1 occurred
on February 23, 2026 within about 100 km of today's epicenters this summary
noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 6.1 in the Fox Islands,
Aleutians, Alaska. It was followed by an M 5.5 aftershock.
NEIC reported these events were likely felt near Nikolski, Alaska with intensity up to IV.
The M 4.4 occurred near local solar midninght and may have been promoted by tidal and geomagnetic effects." (February 23, 2026)
When an M 4.8 occurred south of Africa two days ago, this summary noted
the antipodal relation with the Fox Islands and hypothesized possible
enhanced seismicity in the Fox Islands at this time as:
"An earthquake of M 4.8 occurred today in the area southwest of Africa. It was
not reported felt in this epicentral region. The antipode of this event is at 52N 168W
in the Fox Islands, Alaska, an area where a moderate sympathetic antipodal
earthquake near 52N 166W could be expected in the next two days." (August 28, 2026)
Today's earthquakes in the Fox Islands are located at 101 degrees from Colombia
at the sixth node (60 degrees) from Hurricane Karina; at the seventh node (52 degrees) from
Hurricane Lowell and at the fifth node (72 degrees) from Flores, Indonesia
and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 01SEP2026 06:52:12 52.1N 169.2W ML=3.8 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 06:44:36 52.2N 169.4W Mw=5.3 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 07:05:59 52.3N 169.3W mb=4.5 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 07:30:18 52.3N 169.6W mb=4.6 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 07:45:39 52.3N 169.4W mb=4.5 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 01SEP2026 08:19:19 52.5N 169.4W mb=4.6 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
P: 23AUG2026 185060 51.9N 169.2W 3.5-4.9 CAAAA Fox Islands, Aleutians
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.0 in the Mindanao, Philippines aftershock zone was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Mindanao, Philippines aftershock zone.
This latitude (5 North) is currently at sub-solar conditions on this date with
the sun directly overhead at local solar noon. These conditions can lead to
enhanced seismicity at this latitude and a stronger earthquakes in the aftershock
zone of Mindanao (following the M 7.8 of June 7, 2026) may follow in the next
couple of days. Like the current circumstances, the mainshock in June followed
a major geomagnetic storm and lies near the geomagnetic equator, both
conditions which could contribute to higher magnitudes at this time.
O: 31AUG2026 10:05:07 5.6N 125.3E ML=4.0 EMSC MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in Ecuador was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Ecuador.
This epicenter is antipodal to the M 6.9 in Sumatra of August 15, 2026 - an
area which this summary had expected could see enhanced seismicity at this time.
O: 31AUG2026 14:57:54 4.0S 81.7W ML=4.2 EMSC NEAR COAST OF NORTHERN PERU
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.7 in Central Peru was felt with intensity up to V in the area(s) of Central Peru in Huayucachi, Junin.
O: 31AUG2026 11:53:26 12.2S 75.5W MB=4.7 EMSC CENTRAL PERU
EMSC reported earthquakes of M 4.5, 4.5 and 4.3 in Southern Iran were felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Southern Iran in Abu Al Hasaniya, Kuwait.
O: 31AUG2026 15:22:04 30.6N 51.5E MB=4.5 EMSC SOUTHERN IRAN
O: 01SEP2026 06:36:53 30.7N 51.6E ML=4.3 EMSC SOUTHERN IRAN
O: 01SEP2026 06:15:13 30.8N 51.5E mb=4.5 EMSC SOUTHERN IRAN
EMSC reported earthquakes of M 4.2 and M 4.0 in Panama were felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Panama at Potrerillos Arriva, Palmira, Alto Quiel, David, Bugabita Arriba, Volcan, Los Remedios, and in Llorente, Costa Rica.
O: 01SEP2026 04:50:49 8.8N 82.7W ML=4.2 EMSC PANAMA-COSTA RICA BORDER REGIO
O: 01SEP2026 05:29:31 8.8N 81.5W ML=4.0 EMSC PANAMA
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS EDOUARD 2026-09-01 00:00 UT 29.0N 92.8W 40 kts Texas-Louisiana border
TS Edouard formed today off southern Louisiana with winds up to 40 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate seismic hazard to the region. It will make landfall on September 1-2 near the Texas-Louisiana border and may help promote regional seismicity near Shreveport, Louisiana and further inland in Oklahoma and Texas upong landfall. The antipode at 29S 88E is not a seismic area.
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL (12E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS LOWELL 2026-09-01 00:00 UT 13.0N 148.0W 75 kts North Pacific southeast of Hawaii
TS Lowell continued today Southeast of Hawaii in the North Pacific with winds up to 75 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate seismic hazard to the region. It will approach southern Hawaii around September 2-4 with winds up to 130 kts and could enhance volcanism and seismicity in southern Hawaii at that time. This storm is antipodal to the East African Rift and Madagascar at 13S 36E and could enhance seismicity in that area at this time.
HURICANE KARINA (11E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR KARINA 2026-09-01 00:00 UT 17.7N 126.3W 140 kts North Pacific
Hurricane Karina continued today in the North Pacific with winds up to 140 kts (category 4 storm). It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate seismic hazard to the region but may reach Hawaii or north of Hawaii around September 7-9 where some seismicity may be promoted. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 18S 54E) where little seismic enhancement is likely at this time.
TROPICAL STORM KROVANH (22W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS KROVANH 2026-09-01 00:00 UT 22.5N 131.5E 45 kts East of Taiwan north of Guam
TS Krovanh formed today in the region east of Taiwan with winds up to 45 kts. It is unlikely to promote enhanced seismicity at this time but this could change as it tracks to the northwest over the next week encountering the Ryukyu and Kyushu Islands of Japan around September 5-7 where some enhanced seismicity is possible near landfall. The antipode of this storm is at 23S 49W, a non-seismic region near Brazil.
TYPHOON SAUDEL (DEPRESSION 17W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH SAUDEL 2026-09-01 00:00 UT 20.0N 114.4E 45 kts West of Taiwan north of Guam
Typhoon Saudel reconstituted in the area west of Taiwan today
with winds up to 45 kts. It is unlikely to promote enhanced seismicity in
the area of Honshu and Hokkaido at this time but some moderate seismic enhancement is possible in Taiwan and northern Philippines.
The antipode at 20S 66W is a seismic area in Bolivia and northern Chile
and could see moderate seismicity at this time.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of August 31, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
6530 0331 0333 0335 C1.0 (August 31, 2026) 3.7E-04
6580 1357 1414 1417 C1.4 (August 31, 2026) 1.9E-03
Southern Peru M 4.1 14:08 UT
6590 1417 1425 1429 C1.4 (August 31, 2026) 1.4E-03
Flores M 4.1 14:25 UT
6610 1429 1441 1450 C1.6 (August 31, 2026) 2.1E-03
Northern Peru/Ecuador M 4.2 14:57 UT
6620 1509 1516 1521 C2.6 (August 31, 2026) 1.5E-03
Southern Iran M 4.5 15:22 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: quiet September 1-3. Solar M-flare chance: 15% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 12, high: 20, mid-latitude: 13, time of max k: 12:00-15:00 UT; Max k: 5 Global Kp 3.33 0300-1200, August 31; Sunspot Number: 81; Radio Flux: 107 August 31, 2026.
The Hp30 (GFZ) index did not exceed 3 over the past 24 hours. The current goemagnetic storm
is apparently drawing to a close. This could bring a couple of days of elevated
global seismicity especially at high latitudes and near the geomagnetic equator.
August 31, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
The geomagnetic storm (G1 level) that arrived about 13:00 UT on August 28, 2026 continued
off-and-on today with a gradual decline in intensity. On August 30, 2026 the maximum Hp30 (GFZ)
index was 4.66 around 9:30-10:00 UT and it reached maximum Hp30 index of 4.66
and a maximum of 5.44 at 02:00-02:30 on August 30, 2026. Storms of this nature
tend to subdue seismicity while they are active with seismic hazard increasing
when ionospheric ring currents reinitiate several days after the end of the
storm. Global seismicity is expected increase in the next several days
as the geomagnetic storm declines.
It was a relatively quiet day in global seismicity today, probably related
to the current geomagnetic storm.
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.5 aftershock in the Flores Sea aftershock sequence.
NEIC reported it was likely felt with intensity up to VI inthe epicentral area near Ruteng, Indonesia.
This is the strongest aftershock in the region since an M 5.7 on August 20, 2026.
It may have been promoted by the tidal effects oif the full moon and lunar eclipse
of August 28 and it occurred at a longitude of maximum stress with that
alignment as reported in previous issues of this summary:
"The full moon and lunar eclipse will arrive on August 28, 2026 at 04:18 UT. This eclipse will be a partial visible in the Americas, Europe and Africa with peak at 04:14 UT.i The maximum eclipse will be visible in Bolivia and northern Chile and southern Peru where the M 6.7 occurred several days ago. Lunar eclipses following two weeks after solar eclipses often continue enhanced seismicity begun with the solar eclipse and can trigger new seismicity in areas where the eclipse is visible. This is the largest magnitude partial lunar eclipse of the Saros 138 series which lasts for 1450 years starting in 1521 and ending in 2982 so it is significant in that sense. This in turn, considerably enhances tidal stresses (at the inverse third power of distance) and can lead to larger global earthquakes within a couple of days of the full moon. Longitudes at local solar noon are near 115 East and those at local solar midnight are near 65 West longitude. In the west these include the northern and Eastern Caribbean as well as areas of western South America while in the East longitudes near 120 E are located in the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and Indonesia among others. These are the most likely areas to see tidal triggering at this time, but other areas could see significant enhancement in seismicity in the next several days. These would most likely see seismic enhancement near local solar noon or midnight. A strong to major earthquake is considered likely with this new moon." (August 25-26, 2026)
This activity is at 145 degrees from Chiapas, Mexico and may have been promoted by energy from that source,
It is also near 102 degrees from the eye of Tropical Storm Lowell at the time
of occurrence. The mainshock of August 14, 2026 (M 7.7) occurred at a distance
of Hurricane Hernan at the time of its occurrence as noted at the time in this
summary:
"The M 7.7 in the Flores area of Indonesia was located at 104 degrees from
the eye of TS Hernan at the time of its occurrence. At the same time it was at the
fourth node (90 degrees) from the eye and landfall of Hurricane Lala. This is difficult to reconcile
with a shrug and the word "coincidence" and thus the aforementioned statement." (August 17, 2026)
O: 30AUG2026 07:10:39 8.0S 120.6E ML=4.4 EMSC FLORES SEA
O: 30AUG2026 11:03:02 8.1S 120.6E mb=4.6 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 31AUG2026 06:53:47 8.2S 120.6E ML=4.0 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 31AUG2026 08:03:28 8.2S 120.6E mb=5.5 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 31AUG2026 00:42:40 8.3S 120.6E ML=4.0 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 31AUG2026 02:48:42 8.3S 120.6E ML=4.0 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
A moderate earthquake of M 4.6 also occurred today off the coast of northern California. This is the
second such earthquake in the area in the past three days and could indicate
stress buildup in the region. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II in Whitethorn and Eureka, California.
At the time of the M 4.9 in this area on August 28, this summary noted:
The earthquake in Northern California was reported by EMSC to have been felt with intensity enough to shaking houses in Ferndale and Scotia, California.
This is the largest earthquake off the coast of Northern California since an M 5.1
and M 5.7 on June 3, 2026 and before that in December, 2024 when a strong
mainshock of M 7.0 was recorded near today's event. Like today's event
offshore Northern California the earthquake of June, 2026 was closely
associated with a strong geomagnetic storm - the second strongest of the
past three months. At the time of the June, 2026 events this summary noted:
"A moderate earthquakeof M 5.1 off the coast of northern California was followed
by a series of lighter earthquakes later in the day. The mainshock was reported
felt with intensity IV in Alderpoint and III in Whitethorn, Scotia, Redcrest, Petrolia, Blue Lake, Samoa, Westpot and II in Garberville and Ferndale, California.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.5 off the coast of Northern California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Northern California with IV inCarlotta, Piercy, Eureka and III in Hoopa, McKinleyville, Petrolia, Whitethorn and II in Santa Rosa, and Bayside.
An M 4.0 was also felt with intensity II in Petrolia, California." (June 4, 2026)
and
"A strong geomagnetic storm of G1-G2 level occurred around the earth today
starting around 15:30 UT. Kp with this storm reached 6.57 around 18:00 UT.
Some enhancement of seismicity was observed with the onset of this storm" (June 5, 2026)
O: 31AUG2026 08:36:48 40.5N 126.4W MB=4.4 EMSC OFF COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORN
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL STORM BANG-LANG (20W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS BANG-LANG 2026-08-31 00:00 UT 34.1N 165.3E 45 kts North Pacific Ocean
TS Bang-Lang (20W) continued today in the North Pacific with winds up to 45 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and is expected to dissipate in the next day. This storm is antipodal to 34S 15W, an inactive area of the South Atlantic Ocean.
TROPICAL STORM ETAU (21W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS ETAU 2026-08-31 00:00 UT 31.7N 166.8E 40 kts North Pacific Ocean
TS Etau (21W) continued today in the North Pacific with winds up to 40 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and east. This storm is antipodal to 32S 13W, an inactive seismically area of the South Atlantic Ocean and is expected to dissipate in the next day.
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL (12E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS LOWELL 2026-08-31 00:00 UT 13.0N 143.0W 65 kts North Pacific southeast of Hawaii
TS Lowell continued today Southeast of Hawaii in the North Pacific with winds up to 65 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate seismic hazard to the region. It will approach southern Hawaii around September 3-4 with winds up to 115 kts and could enhance volcanism and seismicity in Hawaii at that time. This storm is antipodal to the East African Rift and Madagascar at 13S 36E and could enhance seismicity in that area at this time.
HURICANE KARINA (11E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR KARINA 2026-08-31 00:00 UT 17.2N 124.0W 145 kts Southwest of Baja California
Hurricane Karina continued today Southwest of Baja California with winds up to 145 kts (category 4 storm). It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate seismic hazard to the region. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 17S 56E) where little seismic enhancement is likely at this time.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of August 29, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
6380 0110 0120 0150 C3.0 (August 30, 2026) 1.4E-03
Flores M 3.7 01:23 UT
Malaysia M 2.7 01:41 UT
6450 1641 1656 1711 C2.2 (August 30, 2026) 3.0E-03
Sumatra M 3.6 16:44 UT
Croatia M 1.8 17:11 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: quiet August 31 through September 2. Solar M-flare chance: 15% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 15, high: 27, mid-latitude: 13, time of max k: 12:00-15:00 UT; Max k: 6 Global Kp 3.67 1200-1500, August 30; Sunspot Number: 74; Radio Flux: 107 August 30, 2026.
The geomagnetic storm (G1 level) that arrived about 13:00 UT on August 28, 2026 continued
off-and-on today with a gradual decline in intensity. On August 30, 2026 the maximum Hp30 (GFZ)
index was 4.66 around 9:30-10:00 UT and it reached maximum Hp30 index of 4.66
and a maximum of 5.44 at 02:00-02:30 on August 30, 2026. Storms of this nature
tend to subdue seismicity while they are active with seismic hazard increasing
when ionospheric ring currents reinitiate several days after the end of the
storm. Global seismicity is expected increase in the next several days
as the geomagnetic storm declines.
August 30, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
The geomagnetic storm (G1 level) that arrived about 13:00 UT on August 28, 2026 continued
off-and-on today. On August 29, GFZ Showed it reached maximum Hp30 index of 4.66
and a maximum of 5.44 at 02:00-02:30 on August 29, 2026. Storms of this nature
tend to subdue seismicity while they are active with seismic hazard increasing
when ionospheric ring currents reinitiate several days after the end of the
storm.
It was a relatively quiet day in global seismicity today, probably related
to the current geomagnetic storm. The strongest earthquake in the world today
was an unfelt M 5.8 in the Kermadec Islands, New Zealand. The most widely
felt earthquake occurred as an M 4.9 in Albania.
NEIC reported the earthquake in the Kermadec Islands may have been felt in the epicentral
area with intensity up to IV, but was not reported felt. It was followed by
two other earthquakes - an M 4.9 in the Fiji Islands 11 minutes and 46 seconds
later and an M 4.4 off the east coast of North Island 1 minute and 16 seconds
after the mainshock. This earthquake occurred at 6.0 degrees from the mainshock,
a time and distance consistent with p-wave triggering. It may also be a computational
artifact and is not listed by NEIC. The second event in Fiji is consistent with PcS/ScP triggering
from the Kermadec Islands mainshock as that wave would have been at this Fiji
epicenter at the time of the earthquake there. NEIC does list this event.
A third event of M 2.9 in Southern Idaho (94 degrees from Kermadec) occurred
14 minutes and 52 seconds after the mainshock in the Kermadec Is. could have
been triggered by the P-wave from Kermadec as it occurred about a minute
after that arrival.
O: 30AUG2026 09:02:09 30.1S 177.9W MB=5.8 EMSC KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
O: 30AUG2026 09:03:25 36.0S 179.6W MB=4.4 EMSC OFF E.COAST OF N. ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND
O: 30AUG2026 09:13:55 23.4S 179.9W MB=4.5 NEIC SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
O: 30AUG2026 09:17:01 42.8N 111.3W MB=2.9 NEIC SOUTHERN IDAHO
NEIC reported the earthquake of M 4.5 in Albania was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Albania with IV in Vlore, Himare and in Greece in Kerkira at Liapades, KKontokalion, Kerkira and III in Auliotai, Ipsos Kentriki, and Parga and in Albania at Gjirokaster.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Albania at Himare, Lukove, Vramosht, Vergo, Delvine, Gjirokaster, Tepelene, Fijiq, Sarande, and in Greece at Acharavi, Roda, Peroulades, Karousades among others and as far as Montenegro, Italy and North Macedonia.
O: 29AUG2026 22:35:22 40.1N 19.8E MB=4.5 EMSC ALBANIA
The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.8 in the Alaska Peninsula area.
O: 29AUG2026 15:16:56 54.8N 156.9W MW=4.8 EMSC SOUTH OF ALASKA
The strongest aftershock today in the Flores Sea aftershock sequence was an M 4.4 and M 5.0 in the Flores Sea and was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Ruteng, Timor.
This activity is at 145 degrees from Chiapas, Mexico and may have been promoted by energy from that source,
O: 30AUG2026 07:10:39 8.0S 120.6E ML=4.4 EMSC FLORES SEA
O: 29AUG2026 13:46:17 8.2S 120.4E ML=4.0 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 30AUG2026 05:40:26 8.2S 121.3E ML=4.1 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 29AUG2026 08:37:56 8.3S 120.6E ML=4.0 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.7 in Northern Chile was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Northern Chile in Antofagasta and Iquique, Tarapaca.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Antofagasta, Iquique and Calama, Chile.
O: 30AUG2026 05:19:51 22.2S 70.3W MB=4.7 EMSC OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.7 in the Tokyo, Japan area was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Tokyo, Japan area with IV in Chiba at Narashino and III in Chiba and Tokyo and II in Ibaraki.
O: 29AUG2026 15:17:05 35.8N 141.0E MW=4.7 EMSC NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU,
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.1 in Greece was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Greece near Emponas.
EMSC reported light shaking in Greece at Chalki, Gennadi, Faliraki,
O: 29AUG2026 12:32:52 36.2N 27.6E MW=4.1 EMSC DODECANESE IS.-TURKEY BORDER R
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.9 in Southern Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern Alaska in Homer, Ninilchik, Soldotna, Anchor Point, Clam Gulch, Anchorage, Chugiak, Sterling and Moose Pass.
O: 29AUG2026 12:02:11 59.9N 152.3W ML=3.9 EMSC SOUTHERN ALASKA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.5 in Colombia was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Colombia in Armenia, Quindio and Yumbo Valle del Cauca.
O: 29AUG2026 10:50:23 4.6N 76.8W MB=4.5 EMSC COLOMBIA
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL STORM BANG-LANG (20W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS BANG-LANG 2026-08-30 00:00 UT 33.3N 167.3E 55 kts North Pacific Ocean
TS Bang-Lang (20W) continued today in the North Pacific with winds up to 55 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west. This storm is antipodal to 33S 13W, an inactive area of the South Atlantic Ocean.
TROPICAL STORM ETAU (21W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS ETAU 2026-08-30 00:00 UT 30.8N 165.3E 40 kts North Pacific Ocean
TS Etau (21W) continued today in the North Pacific with winds up to 40 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and east. This storm is antipodal to 31S 15W, an inactive seismically area of the South Atlantic Ocean.
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL (12E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS LOWELL 2026-08-30 00:00 UT 13.2N 138.6W 55 kts North Pacific southeast of Hawaii
TS Lowell continued today Southeast of Hawaii in the North Pacific with winds up to 55 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate seismic hazard to the region. It will approach Hawaii around September 3-4 with winds up to 115 kts and could enhance volcanism and seismicity in Hawaii at that time. This storm is antipodal to the East African Rift and Madagascar at 13S 42E near Mayotte and could enhance seismicity in that area at this time.
HURICANE KARINA (11E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR KARINA 2026-08-30 00:00 UT 17.2N 120.7W 80 kts Southwest of Baja California
Hurricane Karina continued today Southwest of Baja California with winds up to 80 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate seismic hazard to the region and may reach category 3 hurricane level by September 2 on its path towards Hawaii. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 17S 60E) where little seismic enhancement is likely at this time.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of August 29, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
XXXX 0110 0120 0150 C3.0 (August 30, 2026) 3.0E-03
Flores M 3.7 01:23 UT
6250 1201 1211 1221 C1.1 (August 29, 2026) 1.2E-03
Southern Alaska M 3.9 12:02 UT
Dodecanese M 4.1 12:32 UT
6270 1315 1325 1329 C1.0 (August 29, 2026) 7.4E-04
Sea of Japan M 4.0 13:25 UT
Flores M 4.0 13:26 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: active August 30 quiet August 31 through September 1. Solar M-flare chance: 25% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies: global: 17, high: 23, mid-latitude: 15, time of max k: 14:00-16:00 UT; Max k: 5 Global Kp 4.33 0000-0300, August 29; Sunspot Number: 73; Radio Flux: 111 August 29, 2026.
The geomagnetic storm (G1 level) that arrived about 13:00 UT on August 28, 2026 continued
off-and-on today. On August 29, GFZ Showed it reached maximum Hp30 index of 4.66
and a maximum of 5.44 at 02:00-02:30 on August 29, 2026. Storms of this nature
tend to subdue seismicity while they are active with seismic hazard increasing
when ionospheric ring currents reinitiate several days after the end of the
storm.
August 29, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
Global seismicity remained at relatively quiet levels today. This was probably
due to the dampening effect of the current geomagnetic storm.
A geomagnetic storm (G1 level) arrived about 13:00 UT on August 28, 2026. It reached
Hp30 (GFZ) levels of 5.33 at 02:15-03:25 UT on August 29, 2026. A moderate
earthquake of M 4.9 occurred at the peak of this storm off the coast of
Northern California at 02:41 UT as this geomagnetic disturbance reached its maximum intensity as
shown by GOES 19 and GOES 18 data (GOES 18 at 137 West longitude).
The earthquake in Northern California was reported by EMSC to have been felt with intensity enough to shaking houses in Ferndale and Scotia, California.
This is the largest earthquake off the coast of Northern California since an M 5.1
and M 5.7 on June 3, 2026 and before that in December, 2024 when a strong
mainshock of M 7.0 was recorded near today's event. Like today's event
offshore Northern California the earthquake of June, 2026 was closely
associated with a strong geomagnetic storm - the second strongest of the
past three months. At the time of the June, 2026 events this summary noted:
"A moderate earthquakeof M 5.1 off the coast of northern California was followed
by a series of lighter earthquakes later in the day. The mainshock was reported
felt with intensity IV in Alderpoint and III in Whitethorn, Scotia, Redcrest, Petrolia, Blue Lake, Samoa, Westpot and II in Garberville and Ferndale, California.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.5 off the coast of Northern California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Northern California with IV inCarlotta, Piercy, Eureka and III in Hoopa, McKinleyville, Petrolia, Whitethorn and II in Santa Rosa, and Bayside.
An M 4.0 was also felt with intensity II in Petrolia, California." (June 4, 2026)
and
"A strong geomagnetic storm of G1-G2 level occurred around the earth today
starting around 15:30 UT. Kp with this storm reached 6.57 around 18:00 UT.
Some enhancement of seismicity was observed with the onset of this storm" (June 5, 2026)
O: 29AUG2026 02:41:12 40.4N 125.2W ML=4.9 NEIC OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.5 in Greece was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Greece in Nauplion, Argolis and Vari, Attiki.
O: 28AUG2026 23:55:58 37.4N 22.7E ML=4.5 NEIC GREECE
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in Vanuatu was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Vanuatu in Vila Shefa.
O: 28AUG2026 08:32:37 19.3S 168.1E MB=5.0 EMSC VANUATU
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.8 in Mindanao, Philippines was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Mindanao, Philippines in San Isidro.
O: 29AUG2026 06:32:54 10.0N 126.3E MB=4.8 EMSC MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.4 in Panama was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Panama in Pacora, Pedregal, Parque Lefevre, Cabra Numero Uno, Panama City, San Felipe, Rio Abajo, Curundu, Juan Diaz, Balboa, San Miguelito, La Chorrera, San Jose, Chame, Canto del Llano.
O: 29AUG2026 04:56:01 8.4N 78.9W ML=4.4 EMSC PANAMA
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.6 in northern Chile was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of northern Chile in Arica, and Iquique.
O: 28AUG2026 20:44:37 18.9S 69.9W MW=4.6 EMSC TARAPACA, CHILE
The strongest aftershock today in the Flores Sea aftershock sequence was an M 4.3 and M 4.3 in the Flores Sea and was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Ruteng, Timor.
This activity is at 145 degrees from Chiapas, Mexico and may have been promoted by energy from that source,
O: 28AUG2026 20:07:44 7.9S 120.6E ML=4.3 EMSC FLORES SEA
O: 28AUG2026 15:24:46 8.2S 120.5E ML=4.3 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 28AUG2026 18:08:37 8.2S 121.4E ML=4.0 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL STORM BANG-LANG (20W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS BANG-LANG 2026-08-29 00:00 UT 23.9N 168.2E 90 kts North Pacific Ocean
TS Bang-Lang (20W) continued today in the North Pacific with winds up to 90 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and east. This storm is antipodal to 23S 12W, an active area of the South Atlantic Ocean. It is likely that a moderate earthquake near this antipodal location will occur near this antipode. There is little regional seismicity in the area of the storm so regional seismic triggering is unlikely at this time.
A Tropical Storm near TS 20W is also currently active This is TS 21W (Etau).
These two storms may merge in the next several days
TROPICAL STORM ETAU (21W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS ETAU 2026-08-29 00:00 UT 28.1N 165.0E 50 kts North Pacific Ocean
TS Etau (21W) continued today in the North Pacific with winds up to 50 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and east. This storm is antipodal to 28S 14W, an seismically active area of the South Atlantic Ocean.
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL (12E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS LOWELL 2026-08-29 00:00 UT 13.0N 135.6W 50 kts North Pacific southeast of Hawaii
TS Lowell continued today Southeast of Hawaii in the North Pacific with winds up to 50 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate seismic hazard to the region. It will approach Hawaii around September 3-4 and could enhance volcanism and seismicity in Hawaii at that time. This storm is antipodal to the East African Rift and Madagascar at 12S 45E near Mayotte and could enhance seismicity in that area at this time.
TROPICAL STORM KARINA (11E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS KARINA 2026-08-29 00:00 UT 14.0N 116.6W 70 kts South of Baja California
TS Karina continued today South of Baja California with winds up to 70 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate seismic hazard to the region. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 14S 64E) where some seismic enhancement is possible at this time.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of August 28, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
6190 0412 0422 0430 C1.1 (August 28, 2026) 9.3E-04
Argentina M 3.6 04:28 UT
Southwest Indian Ridge M 5.2 04:59 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: major storms August 29 active August 30 quiet August 31. Solar M-flare chance: 25% X-class: 5% proton storm: 5%
AP Indicies: global: 15, high: 15, mid-latitude: 14, time of max k: 14:00-16:00 UT; Max k: 5 Global Kp 4.33 2000-2400, August 28; Sunspot Number: 92; Radio Flux: 116 August 28, 2026.
A geomagnetic storm (G1 level) arrived about 13:00 UT on August 28, 2026. It reached
Hp30 (GFZ) levels of 5.33 at 02:15-03:25 UT on August 29, 2026. A moderate
earthquake of M 4.9 occurred at the peak of this storm off the coast of
Northern California at 02:41 UT as this geomagnetic disturbance reached its maximum intensity as
shown by GOES 19 and GOES 18 data (GOES 18 at 137 West longitude).
August 28, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
It was another quiet day in global seismicity today, possibly related to the
current geomagnetic storm. The strongest earthquake of the day was an M 6.0 in the
Gulf of Aden. This is the strongest earthquake in the Gulf of Aden within
about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 6.6 on December 30, 2006. The only other
such event in the past 35 years was an M 6.1 on August 26, 2005. At the time
this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake of the day was located in the Gulf of Aden south
of Yemen in the Socotra Islands region. This is the strongest event located
in the region (10-20N 45-55E) in the past 35 years - since an M 6.6 which occurred
to the west of this on July 30, 1970. This is the only other event of M>=6.2
in this region in the past 50 years at least. The last event in the larger
region from 40-60 East longitue occurred as an M 6.7 on Oct. 1, 1996.
...
This earthquake occurred in the equatorial seismic zone on a mid-ocean ridge
area - a region where seismic activity was expected to be enhanced following the
strong geomagnetic storms two days ago. Strong events in this region including
those in Ethiopia often occur 4-4.5 days following major solar flares as geoForecaster
has previously documented in these summaries. In this case, a solar flare of M 5.6 was
preceded by a second M-class flare on August 22 between 4 and 4.5 days ago." (August 26, 2005)
O: 27AUG2026 21:07:38 13.3N 50.5E MW=6.0 EMSC GULF OF ADEN
The strongest aftershock today in the Flores Sea aftershock sequence was an M 5.3 in the Flores Sea and was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Ruteng, Timor.
This activity is at 145 degrees from Chiapas, Mexico and may have been promoted by energy from that source,
O: 27AUG2026 09:14:44 7.8S 120.4E ML=4.3 EMSC FLORES SEA
O: 27AUG2026 16:31:59 7.8S 120.4E mb=4.9 EMSC FLORES SEA
O: 27AUG2026 21:05:28 7.8S 120.4E ML=4.1 EMSC FLORES SEA
O: 27AUG2026 10:33:25 8.0S 120.1E mb=5.3 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 27AUG2026 14:46:32 8.2S 120.4E ML=4.2 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 27AUG2026 14:48:03 8.2S 120.5E ML=4.3 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 27AUG2026 23:55:06 8.2S 120.5E ML=4.1 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 27AUG2026 14:53:33 8.3S 121.4E ML=4.0 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.9 in the Indian Ocean Triple Junction was not felt in the area(s) of the Indian Ocean Triple Junction.
This epicenter is located at the sixth node (60 degrees) from the Flores Sea
and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 27AUG2026 11:47:16 26.1S 70.9E MB=4.9 EMSC INDIAN OCEAN TRIPLE JUNCTION
NEIC reported the strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an earthquake of M 4.8 in the Unimak, Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Unimak, Alaska near Akutan.
O: 27AUG2026 14:30:19 53.0N 163.4W MB=4.8 EMSC SOUTH OF ALASKA
NEIC reported earthquakes of M 4.1 and M 4.0 in Ecuador were felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Ecuador in Machala El Oro.
O: 27AUG2026 17:23:23 3.1S 80.0W MB=4.1 EMSC NEAR COAST OF ECUADOR
O: 27AUG2026 17:26:54 3.1S 79.9W ML=4.0 EMSC NEAR COAST OF ECUADOR
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.8 in Mindanao, Philippines was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Mindanao, Philippines in San Jose.
O: 27AUG2026 18:43:39 6.0N 125.6E ML=4.8 EMSC MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.4 in Venezuela was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Venezuela in Miranda at Chacao, Carrizal, La Dolorita, Baruta.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Venezuela at El Consejo, La Victoria, Santa Cruz, Los Teques, Santa Rita, Carrizal, Caricuao, San Antonio de Los Altos, Baruta, Maiquetia, Caracas, Maiquetia, El Hatillo, El Cafetal, Chacao, Los Dos Caminos, Petare. La Dolorita, Caucaguito, Guarenas.
O: 28AUG2026 00:38:21 10.2N 67.3W MB=4.4 EMSC ARAGUA, VENEZUELA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.2 in Western Montana was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Western Montana in Bonner and Seeley Lake.
O: 28AUG2026 02:38:13 47.2N 113.5W ML=3.2 EMSC WESTERN MONTANA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.2 in the Southeast Indian Ridge was not felt in the area(s) of the Southeast Indian Ridge.
O: 28AUG2026 04:59:07 50.0S 111.5E MB=5.2 EMSC SOUTHEAST INDIAN RIDGE
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.5 north of Panama was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of north of Panama in Panama City.
O: 28AUG2026 06:46:31 10.1N 78.5W MB=4.5 EMSC NORTH OF PANAMA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in Southern Vanuatu was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern Vanuatu in Vila Shefa, Vanuatu.
O: 28AUG2026 08:32:37 19.3S 168.1E MB=5.0 EMSC VANUATU
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL STORM BANG-LANG (20W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS BANG-LANG 2026-08-28 00:00 UT 18.8N 165.3E 75 kts North Pacific Ocean
TS Bang-Lang (20W) continued today in the North Pacific with winds up to 75 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and east. This storm is antipodal to 19S 15W, an active area of the South Atlantic Ocean. It is likely that a moderate earthquake near this antipodal location will occur near this antipode. There is little regional seismicity in the area of the storm so regional seismic triggering is unlikely at this time.
A Tropical Storm near TS 20W is also currently active This is TS 21W (Etau).
These two storms may merge in the next several days
TROPICAL STORM ETAU (21W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS ETAU 2026-08-28 00:00 UT 24.1N 167.0E 65 kts North Pacific Ocean
TS Etau (21W) continued today in the North Pacific with winds up to 65 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and east. This storm is antipodal to 24S 13W, an active area of the South Atlantic Ocean.
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL (12E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS LOWELL 2026-08-28 00:00 UT 12.0N 135.6W 50 kts North Pacific southeast of Hawaii
TS Lowell continued today Southeast of Hawaii in the North Pacific with winds up to 50 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate seismic hazard to the region. It will approach Hawaii around September 3-4 and could enhance volcanism and seismicity in Hawaii at that time. This storm is antipodal to the East African Rift and Madagascar at 12S 47E near Mayotte and could enhance seismicity in that area at this time.
TROPICAL STORM KARINA (11E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS KARINA 2026-08-28 00:00 UT 11.0N 113.6W 50 kts South of Baja California
TS Karina continued today South of Baja California with winds up to 50 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate seismic hazard to the region. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 13S 66E) where some seismic enhancement is possible at this time.
HURRICANE LALA (01C)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR LALA 2026-08-28 00:00 UT 37.7N 179.0W 45 kts Northwest of Hawaii
Hurricane Lala (TC 01C) continued today in the Northern Pacific northwest of Hawaii with winds up to 45 kts. Seismic enhancement near the antipode in the South Atlantic Ocean (at 37S 2E) is not likely at this time. Regional seismicity is uncommon in this area of the Pacific and no seismic enhancement is now expected locally. Lala is expected to dissipate in the next day.
TYPHOON SAUDEL (DEPRESSION 17W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH SAUDEL 2026-08-28 00:00 UT 28.1N 121.0E 70 kts North of Taiwan
Typhoon Saudel continued in the area north of Taiwan and west of the Ryukyu Islands, Japan today with winds up to 70 kts.
It is expected to dissipate in the next day. The antipode at 28S 58W is not a seismic area.
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS DOLLY 2026-08-28 00:00 UT 14.5N 44.7W 40 kts Mid-Atlantic Ridge
TS Dolly formed today in the central mid-Atlantic area with winds up to 40 kts. It is expected to track to the west reaching the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico around August 31 as a weak storm. Some seismic enhancement in the northeastern Caribbean area could accompany landfall of TS Dolly. The antipode at 14S 135E is south of Papua and could see enhanced seismicity near this location.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of August 27, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
6050 0132 0141 0149 C5.2 (August 27, 2026) 3.4E-03
Iceland M 2.8 01:29 UT
6070 0341 0350 0356 C1.3 (August 27, 2026) 1.0E-03
6090 0548 0553 0557 C1.2 (August 27, 2026) 6.1E-04
Volcano Is. M 5.3 05:44 UT
Argentina M 4.3 05:53 UT
6100 0631 0640 0647 C1.0 (August 27, 2026) 9.3E-04
Chiapas M 4.0 06:45 UT
6110 0703 0707 0711 C1.2 (August 27, 2026) 5.4E-04
Spain M 2.1 07:07 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: major storms August 28-29 active August 30. Solar M-flare chance: 45% X-class: 10% proton storm: 10%
AP Indicies: global: 4, high: 0, mid-latitude: 4, time of max k: 14:00-16:00 UT; Max k: 2 Global Kp 1.33 0000-0000, August 27; Sunspot Number: 76; Radio Flux: 122 August 27, 2026.
Hp30 (GFZ) levels did not exceed 2.0 in the past 24 hours.
August 27, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
It was a relatively quiet day in global seismicity. This was likely related
to the geomagnetic storm which began early in the day. Ths strongest earthquake in the
world was an M 5.6 off the east coast of Honshu, Japan. EMSC reported this
earthquake was felt with light shaking in the area of Sendai, Japan.
O: 26AUG2026 19:21:42 38.2N 143.9E MW=5.6 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPA
The strongest aftershock today in the Flores Sea aftershock sequence was an M 5.0 in the Flores Sea and was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Cempa and Flores, Indonesia and in Ruteng, Timor.
This activity is at 145 degrees from Chiapas, Mexico and may have been promoted by energy from that source,
O: 26AUG2026 09:47:33 8.3S 121.3E MB=4.6 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 26AUG2026 16:52:49 8.3S 121.4E mb=4.9 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 26AUG2026 18:23:14 8.3S 120.7E mb=4.9 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 26AUG2026 18:34:58 8.3S 120.6E mb=4.7 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 26AUG2026 07:48:10 8.4S 121.3E mb=4.6 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 26AUG2026 14:15:32 8.4S 121.6E Mw=5.0 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 27AUG2026 06:15:09 8.4S 121.5E ML=4.0 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 26AUG2026 07:17:50 7.8S 120.6E ML=4.1 EMSC FLORES SEA
O: 26AUG2026 07:07:51 7.9S 120.6E mb=4.6 EMSC FLORES SEA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.1 in the South Atlantic Ocean was not felt in this remote area.
O: 27AUG2026 04:19:08 22.5S 20.3W MB=5.1 EMSC SOUTH ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.3 in the Volcano Islands, Japan was not felt.
O: 27AUG2026 05:44:25 24.2N 142.8E MB=5.3 EMSC VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL STORM BANG-LANG (20W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS BANG-LANG 2026-08-27 00:00 UT 18.8N 165.3E 75 kts North Pacific Ocean
TS Bang-Lang (20W) continued today in the North Pacific with winds up to 75 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and east. This storm is antipodal to 19S 15W, an active area of the South Atlantic Ocean. It is likely that a moderate earthquake near this antipodal location will occur near this antipode. There is little regional seismicity in the area of the storm so regional seismic triggering is unlikely at this time.
A Tropical Storm near TS 20W is also currently active This is TS 21W (Etau).
These two storms may merge in the next several days
TROPICAL STORM ETAU (21W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS ETAU 2026-08-27 00:00 UT 24.1N 167.0E 65 kts North Pacific Ocean
TS Etau (21W) continued today in the North Pacific with winds up to 65 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and east. This storm is antipodal to 24S 13W, an active area of the South Atlantic Ocean.
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL (12E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS LOWELL 2026-08-27 00:00 UT 11.0N 133.6W 50 kts North Pacific southeast of Hawaii
TS Lowell formed today Southeast of Hawaii in the North Pacific with winds up to 50 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate seismic hazard to the region. It will approach Hawaii around September 3-4 and could enhance volcanism and seismicity in Hawaii at that time. This storm is antipodal to the East African Rift and Madagascar at 12S 47E near Mayotte and could enhance seismicity in that area at this time.
TROPICAL STORM KARINA (11E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS KARINA 2026-08-27 00:00 UT 11.0N 113.6W 50 kts South of Baja California
TS Karina formed today South of Baja California with winds up to 50 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west and poses no immediate seismic hazard to the region. This storm is antipodal to the northern Indian Ocean (at 13S 66E) where some seismic enhancement is possible at this time.
HURRICANE LALA (01C)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR LALA 2026-08-27 00:00 UT 37.5N 178.4W 45 kts Northwest of Hawaii
Hurricane Lala (TC 01C) continued today in the Northern Pacific northwest of Hawaii with winds up to 45 kts. Seismic enhancement near the antipode in the South Atlantic Ocean (at 37S 2E) is not likely at this time. Regional seismicity is uncommon in this area of the Pacific and no seismic enhancement is now expected locally. Lala is expected to dissipate in the next day.
TYPHOON SAUDEL (DEPRESSION 17W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH SAUDEL 2026-08-27 00:00 UT 28.1N 121.0E 70 kts North of Taiwan
Typhoon Saudel continued in the area north of Taiwan and west of the Ryukyu Islands, Japan today with winds up to 70 kts.
It is expected to dissipate in the next day. The antipode at 28S 58W is not a seismic area.
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS DOLLY 2026-08-27 00:00 UT 14.1N 42.7W 40 kts Mid-Atlantic Ridge
TS Dolly formed today in the central mid-Atlantic area with winds up to 40 kts. It is expected to track to the west reaching the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico around August 31 as a weak storm. Some seismic enhancement in the northeastern Caribbean area could accompany landfall of TS Dolly. The antipode at 14S 135E is south of Papua and could see enhanced seismicity near this location.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of August 26, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
5970 0027 0050 0103 C1.2 (August 26, 2026) 2.3E-03
Flores M 4.1 00:38 UT M 4.0 00:25 UT
5980 0629 0634 0638 M2.2 (August 26, 2026) 7.6E-03
Flores M 4.0 06:34 UT M 4.0 06:36 UT
Turkey M 4.0 06:53 UT
Honshu M 4.8 06:54
Sumatra M 4.0 06:58 UT
5990 1140 1147 1152 C1.5 (August 26, 2026) 8.7E-04
Oaxaca M 4.1 11:46 UT
Flores M 3.6, 3.6, 3.7 11:41, 11:43, 11:49 UT
6000 1206 1214 1222 M1.0 (August 26, 2026) 6.0E-03
Panama M 2.8 12:05 UT
6020 1905 1912 1919 C1.3 (August 26, 2026) 9.4E-04
Honshu M 4.5 19:21 UT
Laos M 4.3 19:21 UT
Southern Peru M 4.0 19:29 UT
6030 2129 2140 2145 C3.4 (August 26, 2026) 1.6E-03
Taiwan M 4.6 21:47 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: quiet August 27 major storms August 28-29. Solar M-flare chance: 45% X-class: 10% proton storm: 10%
AP Indicies: global: 3, high: 0, mid-latitude: 4, time of max k: 14:00-16:00 UT; Max k: 2 Global Kp 1.00 1300-1500, August 26; Sunspot Number: 99; Radio Flux: 131 August 26, 2026.
Hp30 (GFZ) levels did not exceed 3.0 in the past 24 hours.
August 26, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
A landslide and earthquake of M 5.2 in Nepal were followed by an event of M 4.2 today in the region of Nepal
This triggered a major flooding event down stream which destroyed many
structure, bridges and dams as well as killing many (figures are note yet
available) including tourists of many nationalities. Sympathies are extended
to all affected by this event. This earthquake and landslide occurred
within minutes of local solar noon and may have been promoted by tidal
stresses and/or geomagnetic effects from the full moon and lunar eclipse
on August 28, 2026. This summary addressed this eclipse in the previous
issue of this summary.
This epicenter is at 143 degrees from Colombia and the seventsh node (51 degrees) from Flores, Indonesia
and at the fifth node (72 degrees) from Typhoon Etau and may have been promoted by energy from those source.
O: 26AUG2026 06:00:35 28.3N 85.5E ML=4.1 NEIC NEPAL
O: 26AUG2026 02:52:44 28.3N 85.5E ML=5.2 EMSC NEPAL
"The full moon and lunar eclipse will arrive on August 28, 2026 at 04:18 UT. This eclipse will be a partial visible in the Americas, Europe and Africa with peak at 04:14 UT.i The maximum eclipse will be visible in Bolivia and northern Chile and southern Peru where the M 6.7 occurred several days ago. Lunar eclipses following two weeks after solar eclipses often continue enhanced seismicity begun with the solar eclipse and can trigger new seismicity in areas where the eclipse is visible. This is the largest magnitude partial lunar eclipse of the Saros 138 series which lasts for 1450 years starting in 1521 and ending in 2982 so it is significant in that sense. This in turn, considerably enhances tidal stresses (at the inverse third power of distance) and can lead to larger global earthquakes within a couple of days of the full moon. Longitudes at local solar noon are near 115 East and those at local solar midnight are near 65 West longitude. In the west these include the northern and Eastern Caribbean as well as areas of western South America while in the East longitudes near 120 E are located in the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and Indonesia among others. These are the most likely areas to see tidal triggering at this time, but other areas could see significant enhancement in seismicity in the next several days. These would most likely see seismic enhancement near local solar noon or midnight. A strong to major earthquake is considered likely with this new moon." (August 25-26, 2026)
An earthquake of M 5.5 occurred today in the area of Taiwan. NEIC reported it was felt in southern Taiwan in Taitung with intensity IV and III in Taichung and Kaohsiung with II in Chiayi, Taipei, Tainan, and Hsinchu Counties.
This occurred as Typhoon Saudel was making landfall north of Taiwan in
the Ryukyu Islands, Japan. The last earthquake in Taiwan within about 150
km of today's epicenter with M>=5.5 occurred on Arpil 4, 2026 - alsowith M 5.5 but
the last event of larger magnitude in thearea was an M 6.0 on December 24, 2025.
At the time this summary noted:
"A strong M 6.0 occurred today in the region of southern Taiwan. NEIC reported it was
felt with intensity VI in Taiwan at Taitung; IV in Changhua, Kaohsiung, and III in Pingtung, Taipei, Kaohsiung and Yunlin, Taiwan.
CWB, the local network gave this earthquake M 6.1. That network reported intensity
up to V in Taitung with IV in Hualien, Kaohsiung, III in Nantou, Tainan, Chiayi, Changhua, Taichung, Miaoli, Yilan, Hsinchu, Taoyuan, Taipei, Pingtung, and Penghu Counties, Taiwan.
A foreshock of M 4.9 about 100 km north of the mainshock occurred about a day earlier
CWB reported this earthquake was felt with intensity III in Taiwan in Hualien, and II in Taitung, Taichung, Yunlin, Chiayi, Changhua Counties.
The last earthquake in Taiwan with M>=6.1 was recorded by NEIC as occurring
on August 15, 2024 with M 6.1 but the last of significantly larger magnitude
was an M 7.5 on April 2, 2024..." (December 24, 2025)
Today's event in Taiwan is at 104 degrees from Hurricane Iselle and may have
been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 25AUG2026 07:00:10 22.6N 121.7E MW=5.5 EMSC TAIWAN REGION
An earthquake of M 4.8 occurred today in the area southwest of Africa. It was
not reported felt in this epicentral region. The antipode of this event is at 52N 168W
in the Fox Islands, Alaska, an area where a moderate sympathetic antipodal
earthquake near 52N 166W could be expected in the next two days.
This epicenter is at the fourth node (90 degrees) from Colombia and Sumatra and may
have been promoted by constructive interference of energy from those sources.
O: 26AUG2026 05:45:04 52.7S 11.9E MW=4.8 EMSC SOUTHWEST OF AFRICA
Major aftershocks in the Flores Sea have ceased as of August 25. This has been
a very active aftershock sequence starting with the mainshock of M 7.7
on August 14, 2026 with the new moon and solar eclipse. The strongest aftershock today in the Flores Sea aftershock sequence was an M 4.9 and M 5.0 in the Flores Sea and was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Ruteng, Timor.
This activity is at 145 degrees from Chiapas, Mexico and may have been promoted by energy from that source,
O: 26AUG2026 01:20:30 7.8S 120.5E ML=4.1 EMSC FLORES SEA
O: 26AUG2026 06:36:27 7.8S 120.6E ML=4.0 EMSC FLORES SEA
O: 26AUG2026 07:17:50 7.8S 120.6E ML=4.1 EMSC FLORES SEA
O: 26AUG2026 00:38:36 7.9S 120.4E ML=4.1 EMSC FLORES SEA
O: 26AUG2026 02:08:27 7.9S 120.8E ML=4.3 EMSC FLORES SEA
O: 26AUG2026 06:18:16 7.9S 120.6E ML=4.0 EMSC FLORES SEA
O: 26AUG2026 06:27:12 7.9S 120.6E ML=4.3 EMSC FLORES SEA
O: 26AUG2026 06:34:55 7.9S 120.5E ML=4.0 EMSC FLORES SEA
O: 26AUG2026 07:07:51 7.9S 120.6E mb=4.6 EMSC FLORES SEA
O: 25AUG2026 14:58:55 8.1S 120.7E mb=5.0 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 25AUG2026 15:51:12 8.2S 120.5E ML=4.1 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 25AUG2026 21:23:59 8.2S 120.7E mb=4.9 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 26AUG2026 00:25:19 8.3S 121.4E ML=4.0 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 25AUG2026 18:20:20 8.4S 121.4E ML=4.2 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 26AUG2026 01:31:49 8.4S 120.3E ML=4.2 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 26AUG2026 07:48:10 8.4S 121.3E mb=4.6 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.2 in England today was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of England
EMSC reported it was felt and heard as a small rumble in Scartho, Grimsby and Waltham, England as well as in Cleethorpes and Humberston.
This epicenter saw the total eclipse of the sun on August 12, 2026. Tidal
effects from that alignment may have helped trigger today's earthquake.
This epicenter is at the fourth node (90 degrees) from Sumatra, Hurricane Lala
and Iselle and may have been promoted by constructive interference of energy from those sources.
O: 25AUG2026 18:47:13 53.5N 0.1W ML=2.2 EMSC ENGLAND, UNITED KINGDOM
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.7 in Honshu, Japan was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Honshu, Japan in Dendai Miyagi.
This epicenter is at the seventh node (52 degrees) Flores and Northern Sumatra
and may have been promoted by constructive interference of energy from those sources.
O: 25AUG2026 20:23:37 37.3N 141.9E MB=4.7 EMSC NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU,
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.5 in Fiji may have been felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Fiji.
This earthquake occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and may have
been promoted by tidal and/or geomagnetic effects which maximize near this hour.
This epicenter is locaed at 104 degrees from Colombia and may have been
promoted by energy from that source. Itis also at ehe fifth node (72 degrees) from
Storms Saudel and Iselle and at the sixth node (60 degrees) from Flores and Hurricane Lala.
O: 25AUG2026 12:12:03 23.4S 179.9E MW=5.5 EMSC SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in Eastern Turkey was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Eastern Turkey in Malatya, Yesilyurt.
Several associated shocks were also felt in the area.
This epicenter is at the fourth node (909 degrees) from Flores and 105 degrees
from Colombia and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 26AUG2026 06:53:43 38.8N 36.5E ML=4.0 EMSC CENTRAL TURKEY
O: 25AUG2026 18:43:54 38.1N 38.4E ML=4.2 EMSC EASTERN TURKEY
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL STORM 20W
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS 20W 2026-08-26 00:00 UT 17.0N 162.6E 70 kts North Pacific Ocean
TS 20W continued today in the North Pacific with winds up to 70 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and east. This storm is antipodal to 17S 18W, an active area of the South Atlantic Ocean. It is likely that a moderate earthquake near this antipodal location will occur in the next three days as this storm remains antipodal. There is little regional seismicity in the area of the storm so regional seismic triggering is unlikely at this time.
The previous issue of this summary had addressed the possible effects of this storm as:
"A tropical cyclone may be forming in the north Pacific. This storm is currently
locate at 16N 166E with winds to 26 kts and moving NNW. This area of the
North Pacific is not seismic. The antipode at 16S 14W however is on the
Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge and is active and could see additional
seismicity with this storm." (August 25, 2026)
A Tropical Storm near TS 20W is also currently active This is TS 21W (Etau).
These two storms may merge in the next several days
TROPICAL STORM ETAU (21W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS ETAU 2026-08-26 00:00 UT 23.1N 167.8E 70 kts North Pacific Ocean
TS Etau (21W) formed today in the North Pacific with winds up to 70 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and east. This storm is antipodal to 23S 13W, an active area of the South Atlantic Ocean. It is possible that a moderate earthquake near this antipodal location could occur in the next three days as this storm remains antipodal. There is little regional seismicity in the area of TS Etau so regional seismic triggering is unlikely at this time.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARRA (TD 18W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TD NARRA 2026-08-26 00:00 UT 20.0N 109.6E 35 kts South China Sea
TD Narra (18W) continued today in the South China Sea with winds up to 35 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west. This storm is antipodal to northern Chile and southern Peru where an M 6.7 hit on August 20 near the landfall of TD 18W. Seismic enhancement near the antipode in Antofagasta and Tarapaca and Arica, Chile and southern and central Peru could occur with this storm in the China Sea.
HURRICANE LALA (01C)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR LALA 2026-08-26 00:00 UT 37.0N 178.4W 50 kts Northwest of Hawaii
Hurricane Lala (TC 01C) continued today in the Northern Pacific northwest of Hawaii with winds up to 50 kts. Seismic enhancement near the antipode in the South Atlantic Ocean (at 37S 2E) is not likely at this time. Regional seismicity is uncommon in this area of the Pacific and no seismic enhancement is now expected locally.
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE (09E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS ISELLE 2026-08-26 00:00 UT 21.9N 123.4W 55 kts west of Mexico
TS Iselle continued today in the Northern Pacific west of Mexico with winds up to 55 kts. Seismic enhancement near the antipode in the South Indian Ocean at 21S 55E is possible with this storm. Local seismic enhancement is unlikely at this time.
TYPHOON SAUDEL (DEPRESSION 17W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH SAUDEL 2026-08-26 00:00 UT 28.1N 122.6E 95 kts North of Taiwan
Typhoon Saudel continued in the area north of Taiwan and west of the Ryukyu Islands, Japan today with winds up to 95 kts.
It is likely to promote enhanced seismicity in
the area of Taiwan and in Honshu and Hokkaido at this time Ryukyu Islands around August 25-27.
The antipode at 28S 57W is not a seismic area.
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS DOLLY 2026-08-26 00:00 UT 13.1N 39.7W 40 kts Mid-Atlantic Ridge
TS Dolly formed today in the central mid-Atlantic area with winds up to 40 kts. It is expected to track to the west reaching the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico around August 31 as a weak storm. Some seismic enhance in the northeastern Caribbean area could accompany landfall of TS Dolly. The antipode at 14S 140E is south of Papua and could see enhanced seismicity near this location.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of August 25, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
5770 0104 0126 0140 M1.9 (August 25, 2026) 2.3E-02
Martinique M 3.0 01:13 UT
Hindu Kush M 4.9 01:18 UT
Solomon Islands M 4.5 Mozambique
Romania M 4.4 01:56 UT
Central California M 2.7 01:05 UT
5780 0335 0347 0355 C4.9 (August 25, 2026) 4.9E-03
Iceland M 4.4 03:38 UT M 2.8 03:29 UT
5800 0355 0402 0407 M1.0 (August 25, 2026) 5.8E-03
Iceland M 2.9 04:11 UT
5790 0548 0555 0600 C1.6 (August 25, 2026) 1.2E-03
Iceland M 2.9, 4.2, 3.0, 3.3, 2.9 05:46-06:00 UT
Utah M 2.1 05:55 UT
5810 0630 0640 0646 M1.8 (August 25, 2026) 9.2E-03
SW Sumatra M 4.2 06:44 UT
Taiwan M 5.5 07:00 UT
Iceland M 2.9 04:54 UT
5820 0722 0728 0734 C6.2 (August 25, 2026) 3.5E-03
Northern Alaska M 2.6 07:22 UT
Chiapas M 4.1, 4.2, 4.1 07:37-07:49 UT
5840 0932 1002 1013 M6.9 (August 25, 2026) 6.9E-02
Mammoth Lakes, CA M 2.2 09:52 UT
Guatemala M 4.0 10:20 UT
5880 1238 1258 1316 C4.7 (August 25, 2026) 9.4E-03
Sumatra M 3.6 12:38 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: quiet August 26 major storms August 27-28. Solar M-flare chance: 45% X-class: 10% proton storm: 10%
AP Indicies: global: 4, high: 1, mid-latitude: 6, time of max k: 14:00-16:00 UT; Max k: 3 Global Kp 1.67 0300-0500, August 25; Sunspot Number: 83; Radio Flux: 132 August 25, 2026.
Hp30 (GFZ) levels did not exceed 3.0 in the past 24 hours.
A geomagnetic excursion was registered by the GOES satellite magnetometer (at 137W)
beginningabout 16:20 UT on August 25, 2026. An arcjet maneuver started
around 17:08 UT and normal operations resumed by 18:10 UT. An earthquake of M 4.5
and a strong volcanic eruption in Vanuatu coincided with this geomagnetic
anomaly and may have been relate to it.
O: 25AUG2026 16:23:33 14.2S 170.5E MB=4.5 EMSC VANUATU REGION
August 25, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
The full moon and lunar eclipse will arrive on August 28, 2026 at 04:18 UT. This eclipse will be a partial visible in the Americas, Europe and Africa with peak at 04:14 UT.i The maximum eclipse will be visible in Bolivia and northern Chile and southern Peru where the M 6.7 occurred several days ago. Lunar eclipses following two weeks after solar eclipses often continue enhanced seismicity begun with the solar eclipse and can trigger new seismicity in areas where the eclipse is visible. This is the largest magnitude partial lunar eclipse of the Saros 138 series which lasts for 1450 years starting in 1521 and ending in 2982 so it is significant in that sense. This in turn, considerably enhances tidal stresses (at the inverse third power of distance) and can lead to larger global earthquakes within a couple of days of the full moon. Longitudes at local solar noon are near 115 East and those at local solar midnight are near 65 West longitude. In the west these include the northern and Eastern Caribbean as well as areas of western South America while in the East longitudes near 120 E are located in the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and Indonesia among others. These are the most likely areas to see tidal triggering at this time, but other areas could see significant enhancement in seismicity in the next several days. These would most likely see seismic enhancement near local solar noon or midnight. A strong to major earthquake is considered likely with this full moon.
A notable series of moderate earthquake occurred in Iceland today.
The largest of these was M 4.2 and M 4.4 near Reykjanes, Iceland.
They occurred at a location which witnessed the total eclipse of the
sun on August 12, 2026 as noted in previous issues of this summary:
"The new moon and solar eclipse arrived on August 12, 2026 at 17:37 UT. This will include a total eclipse of the sun. This eclipse will be total near Iceland and Greenland at its peak with the greatest eclipse at 65N 25W over Iceland and will also be total in the area of Spain, Portugal, Southern France and northern Italy. These areas could see significantly enhanced seismicity beginning in several days. ..." (August 10-14, 2026)
The location where this eclipse was seen with maximum duration was at
63,3N 24.3W with duration of 2m18 sec at 17:49 UT. Readers should
note the correspondence to the location of today's swarm before invoking
"coincidence".
These epicenters are at the third node (120 dgrees) from Flores and at 101 degrees
from Sumatra and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 25AUG2026 05:38:10 63.4N 24.3W ML=3.3 EMSC ICELAND REGION
O: 25AUG2026 05:46:04 63.7N 23.4W ML=4.2 EMSC ICELAND REGION
O: 25AUG2026 05:47:52 63.7N 23.3W ML=3.0 EMSC ICELAND REGION
O: 25AUG2026 05:49:37 63.7N 23.4W ML=3.4 EMSC ICELAND REGION
O: 25AUG2026 07:31:18 63.7N 23.4W ML=3.8 EMSC ICELAND REGION
O: 25AUG2026 03:38:11 63.8N 23.2W ML=4.4 EMSC ICELAND REGION
An unheralded (in this summary) earthquake was also reported by EMSC of M 3.6
off the coast of Ireland in the North Atlantic on August 21. The total eclipse
of the sun was visible for 2min4sec beginning at 18:16 UT on August 12 at the
epicenter of this earthquake according to NASA online data. The last earthquake
within about 150 km of this epicenter in the North Atlantic recorded with
M>=3.0 occurred more than 35 years ago, so this is a significant earthquake
in a non-seismic area. Together with the swarm in the Greenland Sea and
the swarm in Spain near the path of totality, these earthquakes in the
North Atlantic and in Iceland should settle the question whether earthquakes
can be triggered by conditions at the time of solar eclipses in the positive.
This epicenter is at 102 degrees from northern Sumatra and may have been
promoted by energy from that source.
O: 21AUG2026 12:05:11 50.3N 13.9W ML=3.4 EMSC NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN
An earthquake of M 5.5 occurred today in the area of Taiwan. NEIC reported it was felt in southern Taiwan in Taitung with intensity IV and III in Taichung and Kaohsiung with II in Chiayi, Taipei, Tainan, and Hsinchu Counties.
This occurred as Typhoon Saudel was making landfall north of Taiwan in
the Ryukyu Islands, Japan. The last earthquake in Taiwan within about 150
km of today's epicenter with M>=5.5 occurred on Arpil 4, 2026 - alsowith M 5.5 but
the last event of larger magnitude in thearea was an M 6.0 on December 24, 2025.
At the time this summary noted:
"A strong M 6.0 occurred today in the region of southern Taiwan. NEIC reported it was
felt with intensity VI in Taiwan at Taitung; IV in Changhua, Kaohsiung, and III in Pingtung, Taipei, Kaohsiung and Yunlin, Taiwan.
CWB, the local network gave this earthquake M 6.1. That network reported intensity
up to V in Taitung with IV in Hualien, Kaohsiung, III in Nantou, Tainan, Chiayi, Changhua, Taichung, Miaoli, Yilan, Hsinchu, Taoyuan, Taipei, Pingtung, and Penghu Counties, Taiwan.
A foreshock of M 4.9 about 100 km north of the mainshock occurred about a day earlier
CWB reported this earthquake was felt with intensity III in Taiwan in Hualien, and II in Taitung, Taichung, Yunlin, Chiayi, Changhua Counties.
The last earthquake in Taiwan with M>=6.1 was recorded by NEIC as occurring
on August 15, 2024 with M 6.1 but the last of significantly larger magnitude
was an M 7.5 on April 2, 2024..." (December 24, 2025)
Today's event in Taiwan is at 104 degrees from Hurricane Iselle and may have
been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 25AUG2026 07:00:10 22.6N 121.7E MW=5.5 EMSC TAIWAN REGION
Two moderate earthquake of M 4.3 and M 4.7 occurred today south of Hokkaido,
Japan in northern Honshu. These followed the strongest earthquake in the world yesterday - an M 6.0 in Hokkaido, Japan. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III in Aomori, Japan at Hachinohe and in Hokkaido at Sapporo, Chitose, Otaru as well as in Hamamatsu, Shiuoka.
These epicenters are at the seventh node (52 degrees) from Flores and may have
been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 24AUG2026 18:07:02 40.6N 142.6E MB=4.7 EMSC NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAP
O: 24AUG2026 14:47:30 40.0N 142.8E ML=4.3 EMSC NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
O: 23AUG2026 13:44:53 41.9N 142.8E MW=6.0 EMSC HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.9 in Costa Rica was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Costa Rica with intensity VII in Costa Rica at Cot, Cartago; IV in San Jose at Ipis and San Antonio de Desamparados; V in San Antonio Aljuela, San ?Jose, Sabanilla, San Rafael, San Vicente, and IV in Cartago, San Miguel, Angeles, Heredia, Concepcion, Guadalupe, Escazu, Pital, Curridabat, Salitral, and III in San Josecito, Alajuela, San Juan, Santiago, and others as far as 100 km from the epicenter.
Costa Rica is nearly sub-solar on this date of the year and may have
been promoted ty tidal stresses. It occurred near local solar midnight.
O: 24AUG2026 07:37:17 10.0N 83.9W ML=4.9 NEIC COSTA RICA
O: 24AUG2026 07:37:19 10.2N 83.9W MB=4.9 EMSC COSTA RICA
O: 24AUG2026 07:39:39 10.1N 84.0W ML=4.6 EMSC COSTA RICA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.6 in the Rat Islands, Aleutians may have been felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Rat Islands, Alaska.
O: 24AUG2026 08:25:03 52.0N 176.3E ML=3.1 EMSC RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 24AUG2026 12:04:21 52.0N 176.3E ML=3.6 EMSC RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 24AUG2026 11:17:56 52.1N 176.4E ML=3.0 EMSC RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
Major aftershocks in the Flores Sea have ceased as of August 25. This has been
a very active aftershock sequence starting with the mainshock of M 7.7
on August 14, 2026 with the new moon and solar eclipse. The strongest aftershock today in the Flores Sea aftershock sequence was an M 4,9 in the Flores Sea and was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Ruteng, Timor.
O: 24AUG2026 15:12:15 7.8S 120.5E MB=4.8 EMSC FLORES SEA
O: 24AUG2026 09:19:44 8.2S 120.5E ML=4.1 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 24AUG2026 13:14:14 8.2S 121.0E ML=4.0 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 25AUG2026 00:05:24 8.2S 120.6E mb=4.9 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
O: 25AUG2026 00:37:44 8.2S 120.6E ML=4.0 EMSC FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
The swarm of earthquakes in the Coso area of Central California continued
today and was joined by a second swarm in the Mammoth Lakes region north
of this near the California-Nevada border. The Coso swarm began around
August 21, 2026 and was described in this summary at the time as:
"NEIC reported the earthquake swarm Central California (Coso) continued today with maximum magnitude events of M 4.0 and 3.5. NEIC reported they were felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of California at East Tulare County, Inyokern, La Grange, Ridgecrest and in Las Vegas Nevada.
This activity is at the eighth node (45 degrees) from Hurricane Lala and
may have been promoted be energy from that source." (August 21, 2026)
O: 24AUG2026 07:51:44 36.1N 117.8W ML=2.7 EMSC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 24AUG2026 10:32:55 36.1N 117.8W ML=2.2 EMSC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 24AUG2026 10:38:14 36.1N 117.8W ML=2.0 EMSC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 24AUG2026 12:11:19 36.1N 117.8W ML=1.9 EMSC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 24AUG2026 18:47:57 36.1N 117.8W ML=2.0 EMSC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 24AUG2026 23:31:10 36.1N 117.8W ML=2.1 EMSC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 25AUG2026 05:17:46 36.1N 117.8W ML=2.0 EMSC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
The swarm in the Mammoth Lakes areas is new. The area has been showing
new signs of plutonism and increasing swelling, not unlike the situation
before the series of strong earthquakes there in May, 1980. A moderate to strong
earthquake is possible in this region in the near term. The current swarm
in Mammoth Lakes began with an M 3.4 on August 14, 2026 and may have been
triggered by the solar eclipse of August 12. It occurred within minutes
of local solar noon and was likely tidally triggered.
This activity is at the third node from Flores (120 degrees); the fourth node
from Typhoon Saudel (90 degrees); the seventh node from Colombia (51 degrees)
and at 45.0 degrees (node 8) from the current eye of Hurricane Lala and may have been promoted
by energy from those sources.
O: 24AUG2026 08:56:14 37.4N 118.8W MD=1.8 EMSC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 24AUG2026 08:57:38 37.4N 118.8W MD=2.2 EMSC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 24AUG2026 09:39:40 37.4N 118.8W MD=2.5 EMSC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 24AUG2026 13:23:10 37.4N 118.8W MD=2.5 EMSC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 24AUG2026 14:09:10 37.4N 118.8W MD=2.1 EMSC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 24AUG2026 18:13:18 37.5N 118.8W MD=2.3 EMSC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.4 in Honduras was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Honduras in Islas de la Bahia at Savannah and Jose Santos and Sady Bay and in Corozal, Belize.
O: 25AUG2026 03:13:26 16.9N 85.6W MB=4.4 EMSC NORTH OF HONDURAS
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.4 in Romania was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Romania in Ilfov at Chitila and Chiahna and in Darmanesti Dambovita with lesser shaking in Sanmartin and Bucharest.
EMSC reported no damage but strong shaking in Romania at Focsani, Buzau, Popesti, Rastoaca, Ploiesti, Slobozia Conachi, Trestiana, Fantanele, Tunari, Galati, Otopeni, Braila, Voluntari, Matasaru, Pantelimon, Bragadiru, Vaslui, and in Moldova at Taraclia, Chisinau.
This epicenter is near 100 degrees from Flores and the current eye of Hurricane Lala
and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 25AUG2026 01:56:39 45.6N 26.5E MB=4.4 EMSC ROMANIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.9 in Afghanistan was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Afghanistan with V in Jalal Abad.
EMSC reported moderate to strong earthquake in Afghanistan at Jalalabad, Khafizan, Nangarhar, Bagrami, Kabul.
O: 25AUG2026 01:18:45 34.5N 70.6E MB=4.9 EMSC HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
The strongest earthquake inthe world today was an M 6.0 and M 5.5 in the Banda Sea,
Indonesia. NEIC reported the M 5.5 was likely felt with intensity up to IV
near Amahai, Indonesia while the M 6.0 was likely felt with intensity up to IV in the
area of Lospalos, Timor, Indonesia.
O: 24AUG2026 10:02:58 5.0S 129.7E MW=5.5 EMSC BANDA SEA
O: 25AUG2026 03:06:19 6.6S 127.6E MB=4.7 EMSC BANDA SEA
O: 24AUG2026 14:10:17 6.7S 127.4E Mw=6.0 EMSC BANDA SEA
O: 24AUG2026 19:00:03 6.7S 127.5E mb=5.0 EMSC BANDA SEA
EMSC reported a minor aftershock of M 2.0 in Spain was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Spain at Huetor Vega.
The M 2.3 was felt lightly in Spain at Gojar, Las Gabias, Churriana de la Vega, Armilla, Cullar-Vega, Granada, Torrox Costa.
O: 24AUG2026 07:15:23 37.1N 3.6W ML=2.3 EMSC SPAIN
O: 25AUG2026 06:20:35 37.1N 3.6W ML=2.0 EMSC SPAIN
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.5 in Colombia was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Colombia in Toro, Montenegro, Dosquebradas, Pereira, Cali, Ibague, Itagui, Envigado, Medellin, Soacha, Bogota, Barrio San Luis, and Ocana.
O: 24AUG2026 18:55:21 4.5N 76.5W MB=4.5 EMSC COLOMBIA
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARRA (TD 18W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TD NARRA 2026-08-25 00:00 UT 20.0N 109.6E 35 kts South China Sea
TD Narra (18W) continued today in the South China Sea with winds up to 35 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west. This storm is antipodal to northern Chile and southern Peru where an M 6.7 hit on August 20 near the landfall of TD 18W. Seismic enhancement near the antipode in Antofagasta and Tarapaca and Arica, Chile and southern and central Peru could occur with this storm in the China Sea.
TROPICAL STORM MOKE (02C)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS MOKE 2026-08-25 00:00 UT 15.3N 157.9W 40 kts east of Hawaii
TS Moke (TD 02C) continued today in the Northern Pacific south of Hawaii with winds up to 40 kts and is expected to dissipate today or August 25. Seismic enhancement near the antipode in the East African Rift Valley near Malawi (at 15S 23E) could occur.
HURRICANE LALA (01C)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR LALA 2026-08-25 00:00 UT 34.9N 177.4W 55 kts Northwest of Hawaii
Hurricane Lala (TC 01C) continued today in the Northern Pacific northwest of Hawaii with winds up to 55 kts. Seismic enhancement near the antipode in the South Atlantic Ocean (at 35S 3E) is not likely at this time.
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE (09E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS ISELLE 2026-08-25 00:00 UT 20.9N 121.4W 65 kts west of Mexico
TS Lala (09E) continued today in the Northern Pacific west of Mexico with winds up to 65 kts. Seismic enhancement near the antipode in the South Indian Ocean at 21S 59E is possible with this storm. Local seismic enhancement is unlikely at this time.
TYPHOON SAUDEL (DEPRESSION 17W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH SAUDEL 2026-08-25 00:00 UT 27.5N 128.1E 100 kts Northern Pacific north of Guam
Typhoon Saudel continued in the area of the North Pacific south of Honshu, Japan
with winds up to 100 kts. It is likely to promoted enhanced seismicity in
the area of Honshu and Hokkaido at this time and in the Ryukyu Islands around August 25-27.
The antipode at 27S 52W is not a seismic area.
A tropical cyclone may be forming in the north Pacific. This storm is currently
locate at 16N 166E with winds to 26 kts and moving NNW. This area of the
North Pacific is not seismic. The antipode at 16S 14W however is on the
Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge and is active and could see additional
seismicity with this storm.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of August 24, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
5660 0706 0723 0748 C2.2 (August 24, 2026) 4.2E-03
Costa Rica M 4.9, M 4.6, 07:37, 07:38 UT
5720 1703 1711 1723 C1.4 (August 24, 2026) 1.7E-03
5740 1809 1815 1819 C1.5 (August 24, 2026) 8.1E-04
Honshu, Japan M 4.7 18:07 UT
5750 1851 1936 1954 M1.7 (August 24, 2026) 3.6E-02
Colombia M 4.5 18:55 UT
Banda Sea M 5.0 19:00 UT
Java M 4.0 19:11 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: quiet August 25-27. Solar M-flare chance: 45% X-class: 10% proton storm: 10%
AP Indicies: global: 6, high: 3, mid-latitude: 8, time of max k: 14:00-16:00 UT; Max k: 3 Global Kp 3.00 2200-2400, August 24; Sunspot Number: 84; Radio Flux: 143 August 24, 2026.
Hp30 (GFZ) levels did not exceed 3.0 in the past 24 hours.
August 24, 2026
Notable earthquakes and events:
A strong excursion in the strength of the geomagnetic field measured at GOES 19 occurred
on August 24, beginning near 00:30 UT. An arcjet correction was made and normal operations
resumed by 02:10 UT. An unusual earthquake of M 4.9 in Sichuan and Guizhou, China
wassynchronous with the start of this magnetic field change and may have
been promoted by it.
NEIC reported this earthquake in China was lightly felt in the Bowangshan area of
China.
This epicenter is at 147 degrees from Colombia and may have been promooted by energy from that source.
O: 24AUG2026 00:26:26 28.4N 105.2E ML=4.9 EMSC SICHUAN-GUIZHOU BORDER, CHINA
O: 24AUG2026 00:22:05 7.8S 120.4E ML=4.3 EMSC FLORES SEA, INDONESIA
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.0 in Hokkaido, Japan. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III in Aomori, Japan at Hachinohe and in Hokkaido at Sapporo, Chitose, Otaru as well as in Hamamatsu, Shiuoka.
O: 23AUG2026 13:44:53 41.8N 142.8E ML=6.0 EMSC HOKKAIDO, JAPAN
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.9 in Costa Rica was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Costa Rica with intensity VII in Costa Rica at Cot, Cartago; IV in San Jose at Ipis and San Antonio de Desamparados; V in San Antonio Aljuela, San ?Jose, Sabanilla, San Rafael, San Vicente, and IV in Cartago, San Miguel, Angeles, Heredia, Concepcion, Guadalupe, Escazu, Pital, Curridabat, Salitral, and III in San Josecito, Alajuela, San Juan, Santiago, and others as far as 100 km from the epicenter.
Costa Rica is nearly sub-solar on this date of the year and may have
been promoted ty tidal stresses. It occurred near local solar midnight.
O: 24AUG2026 07:37:17 10.0N 83.9W ML=4.9 NEIC COSTA RICA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in the Rat Islands, Aleutians may have been felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Rat Islands, Alaska.
O: 23AUG2026 23:23:20 52.2N 176.4E ML=5.0 NEIC RAT ISLANDS, ALASKA
The strongest aftershock today in the Flores Sea aftershock sequence was an M 5.2 in the Flores Sea and was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Ruteng, Timor.
O: 23AUG2026 21:20:15 8.2S 120.8E ML=5.2 NEIC FLORES SEA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M in was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of
"NEIC reported the earthquake swarm Central California (Coso) continued today with maximum magnitude events of M 4.0 and 3.5. NEIC reported they were felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of California at East Tulare County, Inyokern, La Grange, Ridgecrest and in Las Vegas Nevada.
This activity is at the eighth node (45 degrees) from Hurricane Lala and
may have been promoted be energy from that source." (August 21, 2026)
O: 23AUG2026 08:01:15 36.1N 117.8W ML=3.4 NEIC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 23AUG2026 09:16:58 36.1N 117.8W ML=3.5 NEIC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 23AUG2026 07:59:55 36.1N 117.8W ML=4.0 NEIC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models. Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARRA (TD 18W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TD NARRA 2026-08-24 00:00 UT 19.9N 107.3E 50 kts South China Sea
TD Narra (18W) continued today in the South China Sea with winds up to 50 kts. It is tracking slowly to the north and west. This storm is antipodal to northern Chile and southern Peru where an M 6.7 hit on August 20 near the landfall of TD 18W. Seismic enhancement near the antipode in Antofagasta and Tarapaca and Arica, Chile and southern and central Peru could occur with this storm in the China Sea.
TROPICAL STORM MOKE (02C)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS MOKE 2026-08-24 00:00 UT 15.3N 157.9W 40 kts east of Hawaii
TS Moke (TD 02C) continued today in the Northern Pacific south of Hawaii with winds up to 40 kts and is expected to dissipate today or August 25. Seismic enhancement near the antipode in the East African Rift Valley near Malawi (at 15S 23E) could occur.
HURRICANE LALA (01C)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR LALA 2026-08-24 00:00 UT 33.2N 174.4W 70 kts Northwest of Hawaii
Hurricane Lala (TC 01C) continued today in the Northern Pacific northwest of Hawaii with winds up to 70 kts (category 1 hurricane). Seismic enhancement near the antipode in the South Atlantic Ocean (at 33S 6E - west of Southern Africa) is not expected but enhanced seismicity at 103 and 144 degrees from Hurricane Lala has been observed. This storm is expected to continue in the next two days and could continue to excite far-field seismicity.
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE (09E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS ISELLE 2026-08-24 00:00 UT 17.6N 115.8W 65 kts west of Mexico
TS Lala (09E) continued today in the Northern Pacific west of Mexico with winds up to 65 kts. Seismic enhancement near the antipode in the South Indian Ocean at 17S 65E is possible with this storm. Local seismic enhancement is unlikely at this time.
TYPHOON SAUDEL (DEPRESSION 17W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH SAUDEL 2026-08-24 00:00 UT 24.5N 134.7E 130 kts Northern Pacific north of Guam
Typhoon Saudel continued in the area of the North Pacific south of Honshum Japan
with winds up to 130 kts. It is likely to promoted enhanced seismicity in
the area of Honshu and Hokkaido at this time and in the Ryukyu Islands around August 25-27.
The antipode at 24S 46W is near the Southern mid-Atlantic Ridge and some
moderate seismic enhancement may occur in that area in the next several days.
A Tropical Depression may be forming south of Typhoon Saudel. This TD (19W)
is expected to remain weak and not to signficantly affect seismicity at this time.
The eye is current at 15N 140E with winds up to 40 kts.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of August 23, 2026. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight when a flare occurred and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
XXXX 0706 0723 0740 C2.2 (August 24, 2026) 4.2E-03 *
Guatemala M 3.1 07:05 UT
Spain M 2.3 07:15 UT
Costa Rica M 4.9, 4.607:37. -7:40 UT
Haiti M 3.2 07:39 UT
5510 0423 0432 0441 C1.1 (August 23, 2026) 1.1E-03
Cyprus M 2.9 04:24 UT
5520 0457 0505 0512 C1.1 (August 23, 2026) 1.0E-03
Kenai, Aaska M 3.4 05:06 UT
Minaasa M 4.2 05:11 UT
5530 0624 0653 0717 C4.1 (August 23, 2026) 9.3E-03
Kuril Is. M 4.5 06:43 UT
5550 1001 1008 1011 C1.7 (August 23, 2026) 8.2E-04
Chiapas M 4.4 10:02 UT
Kashmir M 4.6 10:04 UT
Guadeloupe M 4.1 10:16 UT
5570 1311 1315 1318 C1.7 (August 23, 2026) 6.7E-04
5580 1334 1342 1349 C1.0 (August 23, 2026) 9.1E-04
Hokkaido M 6.0 13:45 UT
5590 1616 1628 1645 C1.4 (August 23, 2026) 2.1E-03
Hokkaido M 4.0 16:36 UT
5600 1928 1935 1937 C2.7 (August 23, 2026) 1.1E-03
5620 2147 2203 2219 C3.5 (August 23, 2026) 5.0E-03
Oaxaca M 4.0 22:09 UT
Jalisco M 3.6 22:01 UT
* Indicates variation in parameters from SWPC list
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: quiet August 24-26. Solar M-flare chance: 45% X-class: 10% proton storm: 10%
AP Indicies: global: 6, high: 5, mid-latitude: 6, time of max k: 09:00-12:00 UT; Max k: 3 Global Kp 2.00 1000-1300, August 21; Sunspot Number: 73; Radio Flux: 128 August 23, 2026.
Hp30 (GFZ) levels did not exceed 3.0 in the past 24 hours.
Print 