November 7, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
The expected geomagnetic storm today was a G3 event according to SWPC having reached
Planetary K-index of 6.67 around 0300-0600 UT. This is the strongest planetary
storm in more than a month with Planetary A value of 43. SWPC warns that this storm could disrupt
communications and cause trouble with satellite communications. Strong auroral lights
are expected. This storm is the result of two X-class flares which occurred on November 4 (for commentary
on these flares see previous issues of this summary). Strong geomagnetic
storms tend to dampen seismicity as ionospheric ring currents are disrupted
during these storms and cannot induce telluric currents until the currents
reform several days later. Global seismicity in the next two days (or as long
as these geomagnetic storms continue) is therefore expected to be relatively quiet.
With today's geomagnetic storm, global seismicity quickly turned quiet.
No significant earthquakes were recorded in the world today. For the first time
in months there were no earthquakes of M>=5 recorded in the world. The strongest
activity occurred in the Gulf of California with a series including an M 4.9.
Global seismicity is expected to resume in about two days at a level
above background.
The earthquakes of M 4.8 and M 4.9 in the Gulf of California today are
the strongest in that area within about 200 km of today's epicenter since
an M 6.1 on November 4, 2022. At the time this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.1-6.2 in the northern Gulf of California. NEIC reported it was felt in Sonora, Mexico with intensity IV in Bahia de Kino, Guaymas and in San Luis, Baja California, Mexico. Intensity II-III was reported in Sonora at Hermosillo, Obregon, Nogales and in Guerrero Negro, Baja California, Mexico.
Earthquakes in this area can stress faults to the north in Southern California,
leading to enhanced seismicity in that area. A series of moderate foreshocks
have hit this area in the past several days leading to today's mainshock.
These included an M 4.1 and 4.2 on November 1 and 2, 2022. The last earthquake
within about 200 km of this epicenter with M>=6 was an M 7.0 ten years ago on April 12, 2012.
At the time this summary noted in this regard:
"The earthquake of M 6.9-7.1 in the Gulf of California is the strongest
to occur in this region of the Gulf in at least 22 years. A slightly
smaller event hit the region on August 3, 2009 with M 6.8-6.9." (April 12, 2012, November 4, 2022)
Seismic migration may occur to the north of these epicenters affecting
southern California in several days with seismic enhancement.
This epicenter is near the third node (and sixth node) (120 degrees)
from the landfall in Vietnam of Typhoon Kalmaegi today and may have been
promoted by energy associated with that source.
O: 06NOV2025 10:26:14 27.8N 111.9W ML=4.5 EMSC GULF OF CALIFORNIA
O: 06NOV2025 21:53:46 27.8N 111.9W ML=3.7 EMSC GULF OF CALIFORNIA
O: 06NOV2025 22:45:54 27.8N 111.8W ML=3.2 EMSC GULF OF CALIFORNIA
O: 06NOV2025 13:25:56 27.9N 112.0W mb=4.9 EMSC GULF OF CALIFORNIA
O: 06NOV2025 16:36:10 27.9N 112.0W Mw=4.8 EMSC GULF OF CALIFORNIA
O: 06NOV2025 22:04:50 27.9N 112.0W ML=3.2 EMSC GULF OF CALIFORNIA
O: 07NOV2025 00:15:27 27.9N 111.9W mb=4.4 EMSC GULF OF CALIFORNIA
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
TROPICAL STORM FUNG-WONG (DEPRESSION 32W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS FUNG-WONG 2025-11-07 00:00 UT 11.6N 136.6E 75 kts Southwest of Guam
TS Fung-Wong (TD 32W) continued today in the region southwest of Guam with winds up to 75 kts. It could help promote moderate regional seismicity. It is then expected to track to the northwest making landfall in the Philippines around November 9-10 as a typhoon with winds up to 115 kts and gusts to 140 kts. It could help trigger a moderate to strong earthquake in northern Philippines or in Taiwan at that time. The antipode is at 12S 44W in the South Atlantic near northern Brazil and is not expected to see significant enhanced seismicity at this time.
TYPHOON KALMAEGI
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH KALMAEGI 2025-11-07 00:00 UT 13.3N 109.1E 125 kts Vietnam
Typhoon Kalmaegi continued today in the region off eastern Vietnam with winds up to 125 kts.
The area is currently experiencing aftershocks from major events last month and could see a further significant event with Typhoon Kalmaegi. A moderate to moderately strong earthquake is possible in the area at this time with the full moon of November 5-7. The antipode is at 13S 71W - is near the Peru-Brazil border and could see enhanced seismicity on November 6-8, 2025.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of November 6, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3230 0004 0015 0023 C3.8 (November 6, 2025) 3.8E-03
3260 0252 0302 0313 C2.5 (November 6, 2025) 3.2E-03
3340 0313 0317 0320 C3.1 (November 6, 2025) 1.4E-03
3300 0343 0352 0359 C1.9 (November 6, 2025) 2.0E-03
3350 0359 0406 0409 C2.3 (November 6, 2025) 1.5E-03
Honshu M 4.4 04:04 UT
3310 0417 0431 0439 M1.1 (November 6, 2025) 1.0E-02
Seram M 4.0 04:33 UT
3320 0514 0520 0524 C3.0 (November 6, 2025) 1.7E-03
El Salvador M 4.6 05:21 UT
3360 0624 0633 0643 C2.4 (November 6, 2025) 2.6E-03
3370 0649 0656 0701 C5.3 (November 6, 2025) 2.7E-03
3380 0721 0727 0735 C2.1 (November 6, 2025) 1.9E-03
3400 0855 0901 0906 C3.8 (November 6, 2025) 2.2E-03
Panam M 4.6 08:55 UT
3450 1112 1125 1131 C2.3 (November 6, 2025) 3.2E-03
3460 1131 1139 1141 C2.1 (November 6, 2025) 1.6E-03
Negros, Philippines M 4.1 11:33 UT
3480 1257 1306 1310 C4.2 (November 6, 2025) 2.2E-03
3490 1312 1317 1321 C4.5 (November 6, 2025) 2.4E-03
Gulf of California M 4.5 13:25 UT
3530 1430 1436 1440 C1.6 (November 6, 2025) 9.8E-04
Honshu M 3.9 14:38 UT
Hokkaido M 4.8 14:30 UT
3540 1514 1522 1526 C1.9 (November 6, 2025) 1.2E-03
3570 1700 1706 1714 C1.6 (November 6, 2025) 1.4E-03
3590 1810 1825 1839 C5.6 (November 6, 2025) 7.1E-03
3620 1948 2002 2015 C9.3 (November 6, 2025) 9.8E-03
3730 2202 2209 2216 C4.4 (November 6, 2025) 3.1E-03
Gulf of California M 3.2 22:04 UT
Southern Iran M 4.3 22:06 UT
New Ireland M 4.9 22:14 UT
3740 2237 2245 2247 C2.0 (November 6, 2025) 1.8E-03
3770 2247 2257 2300 C2.1 (November 6, 2025) 1.9E-03
Azores M 3.9 22:54 UT
Central Peru M 4.0 22:55 UT
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: severe storms November 7 major storms November 8 active November 9. Solar M-flare chance: 80% X-class: 35% proton storm: 20%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 43 40 31 06:00 7 104 163
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 24, 2025 at 17:47:02 UT (#251024A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 18, 2025 at 03:12:02 UT (#251018A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
November 6, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
A strong geomagnetic storm is expected to hit the earth with geomagnetic storm levels
reaching G3 or G4 on November 6-7. SWPC warns that this storm could disrupt
communications and cause trouble with satellite communications. This storm
is the result of two X-class flares which occurred on November 4 (for commentary
on these flares see previous issues of this summary). Strong geomagnetic
storms tend to dampen seismicity as ionospheric ring currents are disrupted
during these storms and cannot induce telluric currents until the currents
reform several days later. Global seismicity in the next two days (or as long
as these geomagnetic storms continue) is therefore expected to be relatively quiet.
Two large M-class flares occurred today. These were reported with the following
parameters by SWPC:
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3080 1036 1119 1143 M7.4 (November 5, 2025) 1.7E-01
Kalimantan, Indonesia M 4.7 10:37 UT
Banda Sea M 4.2 11:17 UT
3110 1423 1430 1437 C8.3 (November 5, 2025) 5.4E-03
3170 2152 2207 2216 M8.6 (November 5, 2025) 6.2E-02
South Sandwich Is. M 5.7 22:03 UT
Hindu Kush M 4.2 22:10 UT
Kamchatka M 4.6 22:02 UT
Coquimbo M 3.6 22:03 UT
When the CME from these flares arrive in the earth's vicinity, they should
continue the expected G3 geomagnetic storm in progress at that time (probably November 7-8) and
could trigger additional seismicity.
Flare 3170 (M8.6) - the largest of the day - occurred with a strong geomagnetic
excursion. The GOES Magnetometer shows as strong spike in field strength
from a backgroudn near 50 nT to nearly 150 nT beginning with this flare around
21:52 UT and peaking at about 22:00 UT. The strongest earthquake in the
world today - an M 5.7 in the South Sandwich Islands coincided with this
geomagneti excursion. A second excursion occurred earlier in the day around
07:10 UT but only reached about 90 nT around 07:30 UT. GOES Electron Flux
as at low moderate levels today showing a spike with the excursion around 07:30 UT
High latitude K-indices reached 6 at that time but also reached global K-index
of 6 with the geomagnetic excursion and flare 3170 later in the day.
Planetary K-index reached a peak early on November 6 around 03:00-06:00 UT.
This is a G3 storm.
The largest earthquake of the day - of M 5.7 in the South Sandwich Islands - accompanied the geomagnetic storm at 22:00 UT
and the flare of M8.7 (# 3170) was probably also promoted by the full and super
moon that was completed earlier in the day as it occurred when that area
was at local solar noon, with the earthquake in the South Sandwich Islands near local solar midnight. In this and previous issues of this
summary it had been noted in this regard:
"The full moon will arrive on November 5, 2025 at 13:19 UT. This is the closest
super-moon of the year (the moon is closest to earth at this time). Tidal stresses
will be exceptionally high and could lead to considerable seismic enhancement next week.
Longitudes which are sub-solar at this time are in the central Atlantic near 30 West longitude including the mid-Atlantic Ridge, (South Sandwich Islands) and Iceland while those at anti-solar positions are
near 150 East Longitude and include areas of eastern Indonesia, Kamchatka, Japan. These
are most likely to see tidal promotion of seismicity at this time but many areas
can see enhanced seismicity with the full moon which are not sub- or anti-solar.
Global seismicity is expected to moderate to moderately high November 3-8, 2025." (October 29-31, 2025)
This earthquake in the South Sandwich Islands is the strongest event in
that region since an M 5.9 on August 31, 2025. At the time this summary noted:
"An earthquake of M 5.9-6.0 also occurred today in the South Sandwich Islands south of South America.
This is the strongest earthquake in the South Sandwich Islands within about
200 km of this epicenter since an M 6.3 on October 25, 2022. At the time
this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.3 in the area of the South Sandwich Islands, South Atlantic. It was not reported felt in this remote area.
It occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by energy associated
with the solar eclipse and new moon today and/or by the strong mid-latitude geomagnetic
storm finishing up today.
...
It is also likely to have been promoted by the geomagnetic storm at mid-latitudes
which continued today reaching A-index disturbance at mid-latitudes of 204, the
highest recorded by SWPC since at least 1994.
The last earthquake in the South Sandwich Islands within about 250 km of this
epicenter with M>=6.3 was an M 6.9 on August 16, 2021, itself an aftershock of
the M 7.5 of August 12, 2021. A more recent event of M 6.7 occurred on September 29, 2022
about 500 km southeast of this epicenter in the South Atlantic region." (October 24, 2022)
This epicenter is near the antipode of recent major earthquakes in Kamchatka
and may have been promoted by energy from that source." (August 31, 2025)
Today's epicenter is near the antipode of Kamchatka. A series of moderate to
strong earthquakes in Kamchatka have consistently been associated with
a smaller series in the South Sandwich Islands in the past four months
and probably represent triggering effects.
O: 05NOV2025 22:03:50 58.0S 25.3W MB=5.7 EMSC SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
The series of unusual earthquakes at 60.0 degrees from the landfall positions
of Typhoon Kalmaegi in the central Philippines continued today with an M 4.7
in the Santa Cruz Islands. This summary has been following the series of events
at 60.0 degrees from Kalmaegi for the past five days - a series which has included
two strong earthquakes - in Central Afghanistan and in the Southeast Indian
Ridge of M 6.3 and M 6.0 among a number of other unusual moderate earthquakes
in areas such as Oman, Shaka, Russia, the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge south of
Australia among others. This can be seen from noted events in previous
issues of this summary below:
"This epicenter (in the South Indian Ocean) is at the sixth node (60 degrees) from recent major earthquakes
in the Philippines and at 60.0 degrees from landfall today of Typhoon Kalmaegi and at the fifth node (72 degrees) from the Drake Passage
and may have been promoted by energy from those sources." (November 1, 2025)
"This epicenter (in central Afghanistan of M 6.3) is near the sixth node (60 degrees) from recent major earthquakes
in Central Philippines and Kamchatka and at the sixth node (59.9 degrees) from the landfall of
Typhoon Kalmaegi in central Philippines and may have been promoted by
energy from those sources." (November 3, 2025)
"Like the earthquake in the UAR (see above) today this epicenter is also at the sixth node (60 degrees)
from the eye of Typhoon Kalmaegi at the time of the earthquake and may have
been promoted by energy from that source. The sixth node from Melissa and Kalmaegi
has seen a number of unsual earthquakes following those events." (November 5, 2025)
"This unusual earthquake epicenter (M 4.7 in Indian-Antarctic Ridge) is also at the sixth node from the eye of
Typhoon Kalmaegi (60 degrees). Other unusual earthquakes at this distance
from Kalmaegi today occurred in Sakha, Russia and in the United Arab Emirates
(UAR) - see discussion above." (November 5, 2025)
"It is possible that stress conditions set up at time of major storm landfalls
favor triggering of seismicity at the sixth node (60 degrees). This can be
verified by examination of previous data and other landfall events. Other
earthquakes today near the sixth node from landfall of Kalmaegi occurred in the
Rat Islands, Aleutians (M 4.5). This event occurred about 10 minutes before
the earthquake in Afghanistan." (November 3, 2025)
O: 05NOV2025 17:48:37 11.5S 166.3E MB=4.7 EMSC SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.6 in El Salvador was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of El Salvador in El Rosario, Santiago de Maria and II in Mejiconos.
O: 06NOV2025 05:21:05 13.0N 88.7W MB=4.6 EMSC OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.8 in Northern Kansas was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Northern Kansas in Palco and Plainville.
This epicenter is at the third node (120 degrees) from the current eye of Typhoon Kalmaegi
and at 103 degrees from the Drake Passage and may have been promoted by
energy from those sources.
O: 06NOV2025 01:50:17 39.3N 99.4W ML=2.8 EMSC KANSAS
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in Afghanistan was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Afghanistan in Kabul.
This earthquake accompanied the M 5.7 in the South Sandwich Islands and was
also probably triggered by a similar set of factors to that event as it
occurred during the M8.7 solar flare (see above). Other events in this set included
an M 4.6 in Kamchatka a minute before
the M 5.7 in South Sandwich Islands and nearly antipodal to it.
O: 05NOV2025 22:10:39 34.6N 70.7E MB=4.2 EMSC HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
O: 05NOV2025 22:02:27 52.2N 159.7E mb=4.6 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 05NOV2025 22:03:50 58.0S 25.3W MB=5.7 EMSC SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.1 in Central California was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Central California with III in San Juan Bautista, Salinas, Aromas, and II in Pacific Grove, Modesto, Marina, San Ramon, San Lorenzo, and Antioch.
This epicenter is at 102-103 degrees from recent major earthquakes in the
Philippines and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 05NOV2025 15:12:25 36.8N 121.6W ML=3.1 EMSC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.7 in Kalimantan, Indonesia was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Kalimantan, Indonesia in Tarakan with III.
This epicenter is at the sixth node (60 degrees) from recent major
earthquakes in Kamchatka and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 05NOV2025 10:37:10 3.3N 117.8E MB=4.7 EMSC KALIMANTAN, INDONESIA
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
TROPICAL STORM FUNG-WONG (DEPRESSION 32W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS FUNG-WONG 2025-11-06 00:00 UT 9.7N 140.6E 50 kts Southwest of Guam
TS Fung-Wong (TD 32W) continued today in the region southwest of Guam with winds up to 50 kts. It could help promote moderate additional seismicity in Guam in the next day following an M 5.9 and M 4.8 earlier. It is then expected to track to the northwest making landfall in the Philippines around November 9-10as a major typhoon with winds up to 115 kts and gusts to 140 kts. It could help trigger a moderate to strong earthquake in northern Philippines or in Taiwan at that time. The antipode is at 10S 40W in the South Atlantic near northern Brazil and is not expected to see significant enhanced seismicity at this time.
TYPHOON KALMAEGI
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH KALMAEGI 2025-11-06 00:00 UT 13.3N 110.6E 135 kts Vietnam
Typhoon Kalmaegi continued today in the region off eastern Vietnam with winds up to 135 kts.
The area is currently experienceing aftershocks from major events last month and could see a further significant event with Typhoon Kalmaegi. A moderate to moderately strong earthquake is possible in the area at this time with the full moon of November 5-7. The antipode is at 13S 70W - is near the Peru-Brazil border and could see enhanced seismicity on November 6-8, 2025.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of November 5, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2850 0055 0058 0103 C4.3 (November 5, 2025) 2.3E-03
2860 0147 0155 0201 C6.2 (November 5, 2025) 4.4E-03
East Pacific Rise M 5.0 01:48 UT
Macquarie M 4.6 02:02 UT
2870 0252 0301 0306 C8.0 (November 5, 2025) 5.8E-03
Guam M 4.8 03:03 UT
2910 0453 0505 0511 C9.9 (November 5, 2025) 5.8E-03
2920 0549 0551 0557 C2.9 (November 5, 2025) 1.4E-03
Tajikistan M 4.3 05:58 UT
Central Peru M 4.0 06:02 UT
2930 0628 0637 0640 C1.8 (November 5, 2025) 1.8E-03
2980 0640 0644 0647 C2.1 (November 5, 2025) 1.1E-03
Molucca Sea M 4.3 06:42 UT
Southern California M 2.1 06:51 UT
2950 0731 0735 0738 C3.8 (November 5, 2025) 2.1E-03
2990 0738 0749 0754 C4.9 (November 5, 2025) 4.1E-03
Chiapas M 4.0 07:52 UT
3010 0916 0920 0923 C1.9 (November 5, 2025) 1.3E-03
3040 0923 0930 0934 C3.2 (November 5, 2025) 1.9E-03
3070 1021 1027 1032 C3.0 (November 5, 2025) 2.0E-03
Panama M 3.5 10:27 UT
3080 1036 1119 1143 M7.4 (November 5, 2025) 1.7E-01
Kalimantan, Indonesia M 4.7 10:37 UT
Banda Sea M 4.2 11:17 UT
3110 1423 1430 1437 C8.3 (November 5, 2025) 5.4E-03
3170 2152 2207 2216 M8.6 (November 5, 2025) 6.2E-02
South Sandwich Is. M 5.7 22:03 UT
Hindu Kush M 4.2 22:10 UT
Kamchatka M 4.6 22:02 UT
Coquimbo M 3.6 22:03 UT
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: minor storms November 6-8. Solar M-flare chance: 65% X-class: 15% proton storm: 10%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 28 35 19 08:00 6 76 147
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 24, 2025 at 17:47:02 UT (#251024A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 18, 2025 at 03:12:02 UT (#251018A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
November 5, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
Two X-class solar flares occurred late on November 4, 2025. These are the first
X-class flares to be observed by SWPC since June 19, 2025 (#2550 X1.9) and May 14, 2025 (3410 X2.7)
according to data from SWPC. They were followed today by a strong series of
earthquakes of M 5.9-6.0 an hour later in the regions of the Kuril Islands,
Kamchatka and Sulawesi, Indonesia near local solar noon and by an unusual
earthquake in Sakha, Russia. These may have been promoted by SFE associated with these flares. Following are the
parameters from SWPC for these flares:
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2760 1715 1734 1910 X1.8 (November 4, 2025) 2.3E-01 *
Vancouver M 2.5 17:26 UT
Sakha, Russia M 4.8 19:31 UT
2800 2145 2201 2211 X1.1 (November 4, 2025) 9.0E-02
Honshu M 4.7 22:17 UT
Chiapas M 4.1 21:44 UT
2820 2233 2244 2256 M1.7 (November 4, 2025) 2.2E-02
Kuril Is. M 5.7 23:49 UT
Nevada M 3.5 23:39 UT
Kamchatka M 6.0 23:28 UT
Sulawesi M 5.9 23:32 UT
Kamchatka M 5.3 23:37 UT
Chiapas M 4.4 22:55 UT
Kamchatka M 4.5 22:51 UT
Strong geomagnetic field changes were also recorded by the GOES Magnetometers on November 5 starting at 07:10 UT (peaking at about 07:20 UT) and on November 4 starting at 09:30 UT.
These are the times of the start of major geomagnetic storms and could
enhance seismicity in western North America (local solar midnight) and eastern Europe and central Asia
(local solar noon) in the next several hours.
An earthquake of M 4.7 in Greece coincided with the peak of the geomagnetic storm
commencement at about 07:16 UT and was likely promoted by the sudden
commencement of this geomagnetic storm. A second event of M 3.1
in the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan occurred within minutes of local solar
noon and was probably triggered by this geomagnetic storm as it too was
simultaneous with it's peak. An earthquake west of Los Angeles, California
of M 2.3 occurred near the commencement of this storm and may have
been triggered by it indicating strong stress in the area.
NEIC reported the earthquake in Greece was felt with intensity IV in Greece at Kavala, and komotini with II in Bulgaria at Sofia, Elin Pelin Sofijska and Plovdiv and in Turkey at Canakkale.
O: 05NOV2025 07:16:29 41.2N 24.8E MB=4.7 EMSC GREECE
The earthquakes in the Kurils and Kamchatka may also have been promoted
by the full moon of November 5. Seismic effects with this full moon
have been previously expected in this summary as:
"The full moon will arrive on November 5, 2025 at 13:19 UT. This is the closest
super-moon of the year (the moon is closest to earth at this time). Tidal stresses
will be exceptionally high and could lead to considerable seismic enhancement next week.
Longitudes which are sub-solar at this time are in the central Atlantic near 30 West longitude including the mid-Atlantic Ridge and Iceland while those at anti-solar positions are
near 150 East Longitude and include areas of eastern Indonesia, Kamchatka, Japan. These
are most likely to see tidal promotion of seismicity at this time but many areas
can see enhanced seismicity with the full moon which are not sub- or anti-solar.
Global seismicity is expected to moderate to moderately high November 3-8, 2025." (October 29-31, 2025)
The M 6.0 in Kamchatka today was reported by NEIC to have been felt with intensity
up to IV in Kamchatka. EMSC reported moderate shaking in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Vilychinsk, and Patatunka, Russia. It occurred near local solar noon and was probably
promoted by energy associated with the full moon of November 5.
O: 04NOV2025 23:37:24 52.0N 160.3E mb=5.3 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 04NOV2025 15:16:53 52.2N 160.2E mb=4.5 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 04NOV2025 23:28:59 52.2N 160.0E Mw=6.0 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 04NOV2025 15:51:43 52.3N 159.7E mb=4.4 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 04NOV2025 09:23:04 52.4N 160.3E mb=4.8 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 04NOV2025 18:30:02 52.5N 159.9E mb=4.4 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 04NOV2025 22:51:44 51.7N 159.4E MB=4.5 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
An unusual earthquake of M 4.3 occurred today in the area of the United Arab Emirates and Oman.
EMSC reported it was lightly felt in UAR at Sharjah, Al Ain, Khawr Fakkan, Ras Al Khaimah, Al Fujiarah Cities, and in Dib Dibba, and Muscat, Oman.
The last earthquake in the UAR or Oman with M>=4.3 within about 100 km of
today's epicenter occurred as an M 4.5 on October 21, 2012.
Like the M 6.3 in Afghanistan two days ago, this epicenter is located at 60
degrees (node 6) from the eye of Typhoon Kalmaegi and may have been promoted
be energy from that source.
O: 04NOV2025 12:40:54 25.5N 56.2E MB=4.3 EMSC OMAN-UNITED ARAB EMIRATES REGI
An unusual earthquake of M 4.8 also occurred in the Sakha region of Siberia, Russia
today. It was not reported felt in this remote area. The last earthquake
within about 200 km of today's event in northeaster Sakha, Russia with M>=4.8
was recorded by NEIC as occurring on September 15, 2017 (M 4.9) and August 25, 2014 (M 4.9).
These may be aftershocks of an M 6.6 near this epicenter of February 14, 2013.
Tt the time this summary noted:
A pair of highly unusual earthquakes occurred today. The first was an M 6.6
in the northern Siberia region of Sakha, Russia. This was followed about 3.5
hours later by an M 4.2 in southern Algeria. In both cases these are unprecedented
earthquakes with no other comparable events recorded with 250 km of these
epicenter. They occurred during the second strongest high latitude geomagnetic
storm of the past three months. The Sakha event occurred exactly at the peak
of the geomagnetic storm and was probably triggered by it. They are also related as they both fall at
the fourth node (90 degrees) from the earthquake of M 7.4 in Guatemala of
November 7, 2012. That was the strongest earthquake in Guatemala in the
past 37 years, since the Guatemala City earthquake of M 7.6 on February 4, 1976.
Neither the earthquake in Siberia nor the event in Algeria were reported
felt in these remote epicentral areas. No damage was reported.
The earthquake in Sakha was centered about 50 km from the settlement
of Syagannakh in Russia's Yakutia Republic. About 3000 people live in
the general area where shaking would have been expected to occur. The
republic's ministry of emergency situations reported that faint shaking
occurred in residential areas but there was no loss of life or damage to
vital facilities by the quake. The largest twon is Druzhina about 132 km south of
the epicenter. Two earthquakes of M>6.5 have previously been recorded in the Sakha region
of Siberia. Both occurred about 500 km south of today's epicenter - an M
6.6 on May 18, 1971 and an M 6.7 on April 14, 1951. A regional foreshock
occurred on January 20, 2013 with M 5.7.
"The geomagnetic field was at moderately disturbed conditions today. The AP level was 10.
The high latitude AP was also at active to disturbed conditions with AP 27. This is the
most disturbed since January 26 and the second most disturbed since November 20, 2012
when the high latitude AP reached 28. The third most disturbed day of the past two months
was January 20 when the high latitude AP reached 20. The 3-hour K-index reached
6 at high latitudes for the first time since January 26 between 1200 and 1400 UT.
This is the same time as the high latitude M 6.6 occurred in Sakha, Siberia,
Russia. A comparison of the regional foreshock in Sakha, Siberia of M 5.7 on January 20 shows that
that event also occurred at the maximum of the geomagnetic disturbance of
that date. The geomagnetic storm of January 26 was not accompanied by an
event in the Sakha region but a moderate earthquake in Sakhalin, Russia
was recorded during that storm.
Of some additional interest, the highest short wavelength X-ray flux between
11:04 UT on February 14 and this writing at 0300 UT on February 15 occurred
between 1313 and 1314 UT. This was the exact time (1313 UT) of the M 6.6
in Sakha, Russia. Higher flux occurred at 0429 UT and at 1019 UT earlier on February 14. The flux
at 1313 was closely associated with a strong electron flux event which nearly doubled
between 1300 UT and 1315 UT. This appears to be the immediate trigger for the
Sakha earthquake." (February 14, 2013)
Like these previous occurrences of moderate quakes in Sakha, Russia, today's
event was close connected to a strong geomagnetic disturbance and a major
solar flare of X1.8. Data on this flare from SWPC follow:
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2760 1715 1734 1910 X1.8 (November 4, 2025) 2.3E-01 *
Vancouver M 2.5 17:26 UT
Sakha, Russia M 4.8 19:31 UT
Like the earthquake in the UAR (see above) today this epicenter is also at the sixth node (60 degrees)
from the eye of Typhoon Kalmaegi at the time of the earthquake and may have
been promoted by energy from that source. The sixth node from Melissa and Kalmaegi
has seen a number of unsual earthquakes following those events.
O: 04NOV2025 19:31:08 67.6N 142.8E MW=4.8 EMSC NORTHEASTERN SAKHA, RUSSIA
The strongest earthquake in the world today outside of Kamchatka was an M 5.9
south of Guam. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III in Guam at Tamuning, Yigo, Hagatna and Hagatna Heights.
This earthquake may have been triggered by Typhoon Kalmaegi as that storm
passed near Guam on October 31 and November 1, 2025 as noted at the time in this
summary:
"TS Kalmaegi formed today in the region of the north Pacific southwest of Guam with winds up to 50 kts. It could help promote moderate seismicity as it tracks to the west encounter Leyte and Samar, Philippines around November 3, 2025 as a typhoon. The area is currently experienceing aftershocks from major events lat month and could see a further significant event with Typhoon Kalmaegi. A moderate to moderately strong earthquake is possible in the area at this time with the full moon of November 6. The antipode is at 11S 44E - is in the South Atlantic near Brazil and is not likely to see seismic enhancement at this time." (November 1, 2025)
A second storm (TD 32W) also formed south of Guam today and also probably
provided energy helping to promote today's event of M 5.9 in Guam. This
was described in this summary as:
"TD 32W formed today in the region south of Guam with winds up to 45 kts. It could help promote moderate seismicity in Guam in the next several days. The antipode is at 10S 37W in the South Atlantic and is not expected to see enhanced seismicity at this time." (November 4, 2025)
The last earthquake reported in the region of Guam with M>=5.9 occurred on
August 10, 2025 with M 5.9 and also with M 5.9 on June 23, 2020. The last of larger
magnitude within about 200 km of today's epicenter was an M 6.7 on September 17, 2014.
At the time this summary noted:
"A major earthquake of M 6.6-7.1 hit the region of Guam in the Mariana Islands today.
This is the first of several strong earthquakes expected from the results of the
X-flare and geomagnetic storm of the past five days. But in addition to solar
flare effects (SFE) and geomagnetic induction effects, the area has also been
subject to two major tropical storms in the past week and was situated near maximum
tidal effects from the full moon of September 9. All of these probably played
a triggering role in this earthquake in Guam today, the largest in that region
since events of M 6.6 and 6.9 on August 13 and 14, 2010 and of M 6.7 on May 9, 2008.
Today's event was given M 6.7-7.1 by NEIC which reported it was felt with intensity
V in Guam at Tamuning, Barrigada, Yona, Umatacm, Mangilao, Yigo, Talofofo; IV in Hagatna, Dededo, Santa Rita, Asan, Sinajana and in the Mariana Islands at Gualo Rai and Koblerville, Saipan, and in Tota and Tinian with intensity III-IV.
It was preceded three minutes earlier by an M 5.6 in Vanuatu and followed three minutes later by an M 4.7 in Pakistan in the Hindu Kush region.
As this earthquake was at more than 100 km depth effects on the surface were
mitigated and no major damage or injuries were reported. Due to the depth
no tsunami was generated.
A new tropical cyclone is forming east of the Philippines and passed Guam several days ago. It is currently
located in the area west of Guam at 14N 137E with winds up to 23 kts.
On meteorological grounds, the earthquake in Guam had been anticipated in the last three summaries as follows:
"Typhoon Kalmaegi (Depression 15W) continued over the northern Philippine Islands with winds up to 80 kts.
It is expected to move to the west and pass over northern Philippines around September 15.
A seismic watch may be called as this storm approaches the Philippines. Some
increased seismicity in the Caroline and Mariana Islands may also occur." (September 12-15, 2014)
(editor's note - yes that reference to Typhoon Kalmaegi is correct for 2014. Tropical
Storm names are recycled and it happened that it is time for Kalmaegi to reused.)
A month ago this summary noted the relation between strong earthquakes in Guam
and regional tropical storms as follows:
"Seismicity in the region of Guam is often activated by strong storms
in that region. This results in a tendency for local seismicity to concentrate
in summer months. The largest recent earthquakes in the area occurred in late July,
2011 (M 5.6, 5.6); July and August, 2010 (M 5.5, 5.5). In the past 20 years
128 earthquakes of M>=5.3 have hit near Guam. Of these 45, nearly a third
have occurred in the summer monts of July, August and September while only
about 30 would have been expected by chance." (July 27, 2013, August 13, 2014)
Another triggering factor for this earthquake in Guam may have been tides from
the full moon of September 9. Maximum tidal stress occurred when Guam was sub-solar,
a time of maximum tidal stresses. This summary noted this at the time as follows:
"The full moon was complete at 01:38 UT on September 9. Areas which are sub-solar
at this time are within about 20 degrees of 22 West longitude and those at anti-solar
locations are within about 20 degrees of 158 East longitude. ... tidal triggering can occur in other
tectonic zones in which seismicity is moderated by fluids such as water or
magma. Seismicity in these regions could increase at this time." (September 8-13, 2014)
In addition to tidal and meteorological stresses, Guam is also located on the
geomagnetic equator. The strong X-ray flare and subsequent major geomagnetic
storm had been expected (in this summary) to bring about a strong earthquake
in this area at this time." (September 17, 2014)
An aftershock of M 4.8 in Guam followed near local solar noon on November 5.
NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III in Guam at Santa Rita, Hagatna, Mangilao, Yona and in Rota, MP and II in Guam at Tamuning and Yigo.
O: 04NOV2025 07:37:23 12.4N 143.2E MW=5.9 EMSC GUAM REGION
O: 05NOV2025 03:03:45 13.6N 144.8E mb=4.8 EMSC GUAM REGION
An M 5.9 also occurred today in the region of Sulawesi, Indonesia. NEIC reported it was
probably felt with intensity up to IV in the Gorontalo area of Indonesia but this was not immediately confirmed by NEIC.
The last earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter with M>=5.9 occurred
on July 23, 2025 with M 6.3. At the time this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.2 in Sulawesi, Indonesia. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Sulawesi at Bitung; III in Tomohon and II in Manado.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Indonesia at Tatelu and possibly in Papar, Malaysia.
BMG reported intensity VIand M 6.3 in Tinombo/Palasa, Parigi, Moutong, Sulawesi; V in Rio Pakava, Donggala, IV in Bone Bolango, Gorontalo and III in Kab. Bolaang, Minahasa, Kotamobagu, Donggala, Toli, Buol Parigi, Tojo among others.
This event is the strongest earthquake in Sulawesi within about 200 km of this
epicenter since an M 7.5 on November 16, 2008. At the time this summary noted:
A strong earthquake of M 7.5-7.6 hit the region of Minahasa, Sulawesi, Indonesia.
NEIC reported the earthquake occurred with maximum intensity IX (strong damage)
at Poso, Indonesia more than 300 km from the epicenter. ... Maximum felt distance was about 1600 km at Darwin, Australia.
Bernama reported at least one person was killed and many injured and hundreds
of houses were damaged in the northern Gorontalo area on Sulawesi island of Indonesia.
At least 23 people were injured in Kwandang village, Gorontalo province. More than
700 houses fell in the Buol district 600 km north of Central Sulawesi north of
the capital Palu and another 500 were damaged. Information and communications
from Buol had been cut following the quake. No tsunami appears to have occurred although this was a shallow earthquake.
a tsunami warning was issued but no major event appeared within the first 90 minutes
and the warning was withdrawn. A tsunami did occur however and the sea level
briefly rose in many areas. Many residents fled the coast areas and roads
and are currenting camping on the highland areas." (November 16, 2008)
Today's epicenter in Sulawesi is at the sixth node (60 degrees) from the major earthquakes
in Kamchatka and was probably promoted by energy from that source.
"Node 6 (60 degrees)
Kamchatka to Baja California, Admiralty Islands, New Britain, New Guinea, Myanmar, Hindu Kush, Sulawesi" (July 20, 2025, July 23, 2025)
This epicenter is at 120 degrees (node 3) from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October
10, 2025 and at the sixth node (60 degrees) from Kamchatka and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 04NOV2025 23:32:24 0.1S 123.1E MW=5.9 EMSC SULAWESI, INDONESIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.7 south of Tokyo, Japan was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of south of Tokyo, Japan in Tokyo.
O: 04NOV2025 22:17:30 34.8N 140.8E MW=4.7 EMSC NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU,
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.7 in the Western Indian-Antarctic Ridge was not felt in this remote area.
This appears to have been triggered by Hurricane Melissa in the north Atlantic
Ocean. This epicenter is exactly antipodal to the landfall of Hurricane Melissa
at 49N 53W in Labrador, Canada of October 31 and November 1. Antipodal
triggering of seismicity is not uncommon following major ocean storm landfalls.
This unusual earthquake epicenter is also at the sixth node from the eye of
Typhoon Kalmaegi (60 degrees). Other unusual earthquakes at this distance
from Kalmaegi today occurred in Sakha, Russia and in the United Arab Emirates
(UAR) - see discussion above.
This M 4.7 in the western Indian-Antarctic Ridge today is the largest earthquake
in this area within about 200 km of this epicenter since an M 5.5 on March 13, 2024.
O: 04NOV2025 13:31:28 49.2S 127.4E MB=4.7 EMSC WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.3 in Tajikistan was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Tajikistan in Proletar and in Uzbekistan at Yangiyer, Guliston, Zomin Shaharchasi, Jizzax, Sirdaryo, Urtaowul, Tashkent, Salor, and Qibray.
This epicenter is at the sixth node (60 degrees) from recent major earthquakes
in Kamchatka and at the seventh node (51 degrees) from the eye of Typhoon Kalmaegi
and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 05NOV2025 05:58:22 40.1N 69.1E MB=4.3 EMSC TAJIKISTAN
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 2.4 in Eastern Los Angeles, California was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Eastern Los Angeles, California in Moreno Valley.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TD 32W 2025-11-04 00:00 UT 8.5N 143.2E 40 kts South of Guam
TD 32W continued today in the region south of Guam with winds up to 40 kts. It could help promote moderate seismicity in Guam in the next several days following an M 5.9 earlier today. The antipode is at 9S 37W in the South Atlantic near northern Brazil and is not expected to see significant enhanced seismicity at this time.
TYPHOON KALMAEGI
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH KALMAEGI 2025-11-05 00:00 UT 12.1N 117.1E 100 kts East of Samar, Philippines
Typhoon Kalmaegi continued today in the region west of the central Philippines with winds up to 100 kts. It could help promote moderate seismicity as it tracks to the west in the Philippines around November 5-6, 2025 as a typhoon. Flooding and casualties were reported in the Philippines as this storm moved through.
The area is currently experienceing aftershocks from major events last month and could see a further significant event with Typhoon Kalmaegi. A moderate to moderately strong earthquake is possible in the area at this time with the full moon of November 5. The antipode is at 12S 63E - is near Brazil and is not likely to see seismic enhancement at this time.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of November 4, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2620 0131 0148 0320 M3.5 (November 4, 2025) 5.0E-02
Bolivia M 4.0 01:36 UT
Kamchatka M 6.0 03:45 UT M 5.1 03:36 UT M 4.5 03:26 UT
South Sandwich Is. M 5.1 03:21 UT
2600 0525 0528 0532 C3.4 (November 4, 2025) 1.3E-03
Kamchatka M 4.9 05:29 UT M 4.5 05:33 UT
2630 0611 0619 0639 C2.1 (November 4, 2025) 3.5E-03
Northern Alaska M 4.0 06:26 UT
Kamchatka M 5.4 06:28 UT
2660 0854 0902 0905 C2.6 (November 4, 2025) 1.4E-03
2690 1002 1013 1017 C4.6 (November 4, 2025) 2.5E-03
Timor M 3.9 10:03 UT
Java M 3.8 10:04 UT
2700 1109 1114 1128 C1.9 (November 4, 2025) 2.2E-03
2710 1141 1148 1151 C2.4 (November 4, 2025) 2.0E-03
Papua M 4.8 11:40 UT
2720 1151 1201 1207 C2.9 (November 4, 2025) 2.8E-03
2740 1416 1421 1427 C2.0 (November 4, 2025) 1.4E-03
Mindanao M 4.3 14:30 UT
New Zealand M 3.3 14:16 UT
2760 1715 1734 1910 X1.8 (November 4, 2025) 2.3E-01 *
Vancouver M 2.5 17:26 UT
Sakha, Russia M 4.8 19:31 UT
2790 2009 2019 2026 C9.3 (November 4, 2025) 7.5E-03
Kuril Is. M 4.5 20:16 UT
2800 2145 2201 2211 X1.1 (November 4, 2025) 9.0E-02
Honshu M 4.7 22:17 UT
Chiapas M 4.1 21:44 UT
2820 2233 2244 2256 M1.7 (November 4, 2025) 2.2E-02
Kuril Is. M 5.7 23:49 UT
Nevada M 3.5 23:39 UT
Kamchatka M 6.0 23:28 UT
Sulawesi M 5.9 23:32 UT
Kamchatka M 5.3 23:37 UT
Chiapas M 4.4 22:55 UT
Kamchatka M 4.5 22:51 UT
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: quiet November 5 minor storms November 6-7. Solar M-flare chance: 65% X-class: 15% proton storm: 10%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 10 16 9 11:00 5 91 159
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 24, 2025 at 17:47:02 UT (#251024A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 18, 2025 at 03:12:02 UT (#251018A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
November 4, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
A strong geomagnetic storm occurred today from about 09:00 UT through the end
of the day. K-index at high latitude reached 7 at the start of this storm which
was the strongest at high latitude with A of 48 since October 30 when A reached 58 at
high latitudes. It also is only the second storm to reach k-index of 7 in the past month and
the second strongest at high latitude in this period. Two storms of higher A-index have occurred
at middle latitudes in this time frame.
The onset of the major geomagnetic storm coincided with an M 6.1 at high
latitudes in Kamchatka at 08:45 UT. This was followed by the most active
day in seismicity in Kamchatka since an M 7.8 on September 18, 2025 with
additional events of M 5.8 and 6.0 among others. The GOES magnetometer indicates
two spikes in field strength with the sudden commencement storm occurring
around 07:31-08:45 UT and 11:30-12:50 UT with a peak in electron flux also
at these times.
A strong solar flare of M5.0 today was the strongest recorded by SWPC since
an M6.4 on September 28, 2025 (flare 4370 M6.4). The last X-class flare
recorded was an X1.9 on June 19, 2025 (#2550). Data from SWPC for today's
M5.0 and a smaller M1.6 which ran into the M5.0 solar flare follow:
Readers may note that this was coincident with the M 6.1 earthquake in
Kamchatka which occurred about three minutes after the onset of this flare
activity.
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2410 0841 0925 0938 M1.6 (November 3, 2025) 4.1E-02
Kamchatka M 6.1 08:44 UT M 5.0 08:59 UT Northern California M 2.1 09:16 UT
2420 0938 1011 1037 M5.0 (November 3, 2025) 1.3E-01
Fiji M 4.3 09:40 UT
Kamchatka M 4.8 10:02 UT
Kermadec M 4.7 10:12 UT
Honshu M 4.7 10:18 UT
Kyushu M 4.2 10:18 UT
The M 6.1 had been discussed in the previous issue of this summary as:
"A strong geomagnetic storm began at high latitudes today at about 09:00 UT November 3, 2025.
It reached high latitude k-index of 7 quickly, the strongest K-index at high latitudes in the previous month. This sudden commencement
storm is likely to trigger strong seismicity at high latitudes (Alaska, Kamchatka, Iceland for example)
at or near its onset with seismicity quickly returning to background shortly
thereafter.
A series of moderate to strong earthquakes occurred today in Kamchatka, Russia beginning with
the strong geomagnetic storm noted above. These included an M 5.8 and M 6.1
and were felt in the area of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and Yelizovo, Russia.
These are aftershocks of the major earthquakes in Kamchatka of M 8.8 on July 29, 2025 and M 7.8 on September 18, 2025.
No earthquake of M>6.1 have occurred in Kamchatka since the M 7.8 of
mid-September 2025. Earthquakes of M 6.0-6.1 have occurred on October 3 and October 9, 2025 -
also with major geomagnetic storms." (November 3, 2025)
The epicenters in Kamchatka of the M 6.1 earthquake is located at 51.4 degrees (the seventh node) from
the position of the position of the eye of Typhoon Kalmaegi in the Philippines at the time of this event.
It is also at the same distance from recent strong earthquakes in the Philippines
and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
Interested readers may recall that the landfall of Hurricane Melissa was also
followed by a significant earthquake hours later at 51.4 degrees in the area
off the coast of Oregon with M 5.4. At the time this summary noted this as:
"The earthquakes off Oregon are located at 51-52 degrees from the landfall
position of Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica and Cuba yesterday and today and
occurred while this landfall was occurring in Cuba. This is the seventh
node distance (51.4 degrees). It is likely that these events off Oregon
were promoted by energy from the landfall of Hurricane Melissa." (October 30, 2025)
O: 04NOV2025 03:26:19 51.8N 160.5E mb=4.5 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 07:47:26 51.9N 160.7E mb=5.0 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 23:34:57 51.9N 161.0E mb=4.4 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 07:22:43 52.0N 160.6E mb=4.7 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 12:19:27 52.0N 160.1E mb=4.6 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 22:30:49 52.0N 160.4E mb=4.7 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 04NOV2025 00:25:52 52.0N 160.6E mb=4.4 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 10:53:56 52.1N 160.8E mb=4.6 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 13:13:23 52.1N 160.9E mb=4.3 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 07:19:48 52.2N 160.0E mb=4.9 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 07:59:15 52.2N 160.5E mb=4.8 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 11:33:59 52.2N 160.4E mb=4.9 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 12:06:52 52.2N 160.7E mb=4.7 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 07:10:25 52.3N 160.0E mb=5.8 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 08:44:43 52.3N 160.2E Mw=6.1 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 10:01:54 52.3N 160.3E mb=4.8 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 11:21:34 52.3N 159.7E mb=4.8 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 11:46:49 52.3N 160.1E mb=4.6 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 16:34:27 52.3N 160.1E mb=4.4 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 22:17:01 52.3N 160.0E mb=4.9 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 04NOV2025 00:17:13 52.3N 159.9E mb=4.8 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 04NOV2025 03:36:05 52.3N 160.1E mb=5.1 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 04NOV2025 04:45:30 52.3N 160.5E Mw=5.5 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 04NOV2025 05:04:55 52.3N 160.6E mb=4.5 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 04NOV2025 05:29:37 52.3N 160.4E mb=4.9 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 04NOV2025 05:33:41 52.3N 160.0E mb=4.9 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 11:37:49 52.4N 160.6E mb=5.1 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 11:56:04 52.4N 160.4E mb=4.8 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 16:54:23 52.4N 160.3E mb=4.9 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 04NOV2025 03:45:11 52.4N 160.1E Mw=6.0 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 04NOV2025 03:58:17 52.4N 160.1E mb=5.1 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 04NOV2025 04:11:49 52.4N 160.0E mb=5.1 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 04NOV2025 06:28:26 52.4N 160.2E mb=5.4 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 08:59:49 52.5N 159.2E mb=5.0 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 04NOV2025 04:13:45 52.5N 159.4E mb=5.0 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 04NOV2025 04:22:58 52.5N 159.5E mb=4.6 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 04NOV2025 05:14:56 52.5N 159.1E mb=4.8 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 11:47:25 52.7N 159.3E mb=4.8 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 08:07:36 52.8N 159.4E mb=4.9 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 15:23:18 53.0N 159.9E mb=4.3 EMSC NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 22:46:24 53.3N 160.5E MB=4.4 EMSC NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
The strongest earthquake in the world today outside of Kamchatka was an M 5.9
south of Guam. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III in Guam at Tamuning, Yigo, Hagatna and Hagatna Heights.
This earthquake may have been triggered by Typhoon Kalmaegi as that storm
passed near Guam on October 31 and November 1, 2025 as noted at the time in this
summary:
"TS Kalmaegi formed today in the region of the north Pacific southwest of Guam with winds up to 50 kts. It could help promote moderate seismicity as it tracks to the west encounter Leyte and Samar, Philippines around November 3, 2025 as a typhoon. The area is currently experienceing aftershocks from major events lat month and could see a further significant event with Typhoon Kalmaegi. A moderate to moderately strong earthquake is possible in the area at this time with the full moon of November 6. The antipode is at 11S 44E - is in the South Atlantic near Brazil and is not likely to see seismic enhancement at this time." (November 1, 2025)
A second storm (TD 32W) also formed south of Guam today and also probably
provided energy helping to promote today's event of M 5.9 in Guam. This
was described in this summary as:
"TD 32W formed today in the region south of Guam with winds up to 45 kts. It could help promote moderate seismicity in Guam in the next several days. The antipode is at 10S 37W in the South Atlantic and is not expected to see enhanced seismicity at this time." (November 4, 2025)
The last earthquake reported in the region of Guam with M>=5.9 occurred on
August 10, 2025 with M 5.9 and also with M 5.9 on June 23, 2020. The last of larger
magnitude within about 200 km of today's epicenter was an M 6.7 on September 17, 2014.
At the time this summary noted:
"A major earthquake of M 6.6-7.1 hit the region of Guam in the Mariana Islands today.
This is the first of several strong earthquakes expected from the results of the
X-flare and geomagnetic storm of the past five days. But in addition to solar
flare effects (SFE) and geomagnetic induction effects, the area has also been
subject to two major tropical storms in the past week and was situated near maximum
tidal effects from the full moon of September 9. All of these probably played
a triggering role in this earthquake in Guam today, the largest in that region
since events of M 6.6 and 6.9 on August 13 and 14, 2010 and of M 6.7 on May 9, 2008.
Today's event was given M 6.7-7.1 by NEIC which reported it was felt with intensity
V in Guam at Tamuning, Barrigada, Yona, Umatacm, Mangilao, Yigo, Talofofo; IV in Hagatna, Dededo, Santa Rita, Asan, Sinajana and in the Mariana Islands at Gualo Rai and Koblerville, Saipan, and in Tota and Tinian with intensity III-IV.
It was preceded three minutes earlier by an M 5.6 in Vanuatu and followed three minutes later by an M 4.7 in Pakistan in the Hindu Kush region.
As this earthquake was at more than 100 km depth effects on the surface were
mitigated and no major damage or injuries were reported. Due to the depth
no tsunami was generated.
A new tropical cyclone is forming east of the Philippines and passed Guam several days ago. It is currently
located in the area west of Guam at 14N 137E with winds up to 23 kts.
On meteorological grounds, the earthquake in Guam had been anticipated in the last three summaries as follows:
"Typhoon Kalmaegi (Depression 15W) continued over the northern Philippine Islands with winds up to 80 kts.
It is expected to move to the west and pass over northern Philippines around September 15.
A seismic watch may be called as this storm approaches the Philippines. Some
increased seismicity in the Caroline and Mariana Islands may also occur." (September 12-15, 2014)
(editor's note - yes that reference to Typhoon Kalmaegi is correct for 2014. Tropical
Storm names are recycled and it happened that it is time for Kalmaegi to reused.)
A month ago this summary noted the relation between strong earthquakes in Guam
and regional tropical storms as follows:
"Seismicity in the region of Guam is often activated by strong storms
in that region. This results in a tendency for local seismicity to concentrate
in summer months. The largest recent earthquakes in the area occurred in late July,
2011 (M 5.6, 5.6); July and August, 2010 (M 5.5, 5.5). In the past 20 years
128 earthquakes of M>=5.3 have hit near Guam. Of these 45, nearly a third
have occurred in the summer monts of July, August and September while only
about 30 would have been expected by chance." (July 27, 2013, August 13, 2014)
Another triggering factor for this earthquake in Guam may have been tides from
the full moon of September 9. Maximum tidal stress occurred when Guam was sub-solar,
a time of maximum tidal stresses. This summary noted this at the time as follows:
"The full moon was complete at 01:38 UT on September 9. Areas which are sub-solar
at this time are within about 20 degrees of 22 West longitude and those at anti-solar
locations are within about 20 degrees of 158 East longitude. ... tidal triggering can occur in other
tectonic zones in which seismicity is moderated by fluids such as water or
magma. Seismicity in these regions could increase at this time." (September 8-13, 2014)
In addition to tidal and meteorological stresses, Guam is also located on the
geomagnetic equator. The strong X-ray flare and subsequent major geomagnetic
storm had been expected (in this summary) to bring about a strong earthquake
in this area at this time." (September 17, 2014)
O: 04NOV2025 07:37:23 12.4N 143.2E MW=5.9 EMSC GUAM REGION
An earthquake of M 5.5 in the region off the coast of Atacama, Chile was widely
felt in that area today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III in Atacama, Chile at Vallenar and Copiapo and in Coquimbo, Chile.
CSN reported it was felt in Atacama with intensity V in Copiapo, Tierra Amarilla, Caldera; IV in Chanarl and II-III in Diego de Almagro, Freirina, Huasco, Vallenar and Alto del Carmen, Chile.
The last earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter in Atacama, Chile
of M>=5.5 was an M 5.7 on September 15, 2023. At that time this summary noted:
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.7-5.9 in the area off the coast of
Atacama, Chile. GUC reported this earthquake was felt with intensity III in Atacama at Copiapo, Tierra Amarilla and Caldera, Chile.
This earthquake occurred with the new moon within about an hour of local solar
noon and was probably promoted by tidal stresses associated with that alignment
...
A similar M 5.9 hit Atacama with the full moon on April 4, 2023. At the time this summary noted:
"An M 5.9 also shook the region of Central Chile in Atacama today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity VI in Copiapo with IV in Diego de Almagro and in La Serena, Coquimbo, Chile.
This is the largest earthquake in the Atacama region of Chile since an M 6.0 on
July 4, 2021. That earthquake was associated with an X1.2 solar flare and
a strong activation of western North America. At the time this summary noted:
"A series of moderately large to large earthquake hit along the western coastline
of North and South America today. These included an M 5.6-5.7 in Nayarit, Gulf of
California; two events of M 5.8-6.0 in Atacama, Chile and a series of light,
but widely felt quakes in southern and central California of M 3.4-3.6.
Much of this activity may be related to an X1.5 solar flare which occurred
when the region of Atacama was sub-solar at 14:30 UT (#6940). This is the strongest solar flare
reported since X9 and X8 flares on September 6 and 10, 2017, nearly four years ago. ...
Two strong earthquakes of M 5.9-6.0 struck the Atacama area of Central Chile today. They were felt with maximum intensity IX (local damage) at Vallenar; V in Vicuna and Ovalle, Coquimbo and IV in Coquimbo at Coquimbo, Copiapo, and IV in Valparaiso at Vina del Mar and Quilpue, Chile.
... The last earthquake of M>=6 within about 200 km of today's activity was
a series on September 1, 2020 including events of M 6.8, 6.5 and 6.3 and
prior to that an M 6.9 on November 11, 2015." (July 4, 2021, April 4, 2023, September 16, 2023)
O: 03NOV2025 15:51:52 27.4S 71.5W MW=5.5 EMSC OFFSHORE ATACAMA, CHILE
O: 03NOV2025 15:51:55 27.5S 71.5W MW=5.6 CSN OFFSHORE ATACAMA, CHILE
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.0 in northern Alaska was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of northern Alaska with III in Kotzebue and Noatak and II in Deering.
This epicenter is at the fifth node (72 degrees) from the landfall of Typhoon Kalmaegi and
other recent major quakes in the Central Philippines and at 146 degrees from the Drake
Passage and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 04NOV2025 06:26:14 66.5N 162.6W ML=4.0 EMSC NORTHERN ALASKA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.1 in Papua New Guinea was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Papua New Guinea with III in Port Moresby.
This epicenter is located at 60 degrees from the the recent major quakes in Kamchatka
and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 04NOV2025 05:13:05 5.8S 148.9E MB=5.1 EMSC NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.7 in Nepal was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Nepal with III at Khadbari, Sankhuwasabha.
This epicenter is located at 142 degrees from the Drake Passage and may
have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 03NOV2025 20:57:21 28.5N 87.4E MB=4.7 EMSC WESTERN XIZANG
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in Western Turkey was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Western Turkey with III in Silivri, Istanbul, Bursa, Aliaga, Izmir, Bandirma, Balikesir and II in Istanbul.
EMSC reported strong shaking in Turkey at Sindirgi, Gordes, Yarbasan, Koprubasi, Akhisar, Simav, Balikesir, Sevastepe, Soma, Salihi, Kinik, Saruhanli, Ahmetli, Alasehir, Turgutlu, Ucpinar, Mustafakemalpasa, Manisa. Karaoglani. It was felt lightly within about 200 km of the epicenter in Turkey.
This epicenter is located at 90 degrees (node 4) from the landfall of Typhoon
Kalmaegi; and the recent major earthquakes in central Philippines and may
have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 03NOV2025 12:35:37 39.2N 28.3E MB=5.0 EMSC WESTERN TURKEY
O: 03NOV2025 20:23:36 39.2N 28.2E Mw=4.3 EMSC WESTERN TURKEY
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in Costa Rica was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Costa Rica in Tilaran and Nuevo Arenal.
O: 03NOV2025 15:36:38 10.6N 85.0W ML=4.2 EMSC COSTA RICA
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TD 32W 2025-11-04 00:00 UT 9.2N 142.9E 45 kts South of Guam
TD 32W formed today in the region south of Guam with winds up to 45 kts. It could help promote moderate seismicity in Guam in the next several days. The antipode is at 10S 37W in the South Atlantic and is not expected to see enhanced seismicity at this time.
TYPHOON KALMAEGI
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH KALMAEGI 2025-11-04 00:00 UT 10.4N 121.8E 85 kts Negros, Philippines
TS Kalmaegi continued today in the region of the central Philippines with winds up to 85 kts. It could help promote moderate seismicity as it tracks to the west in the Philippines around November 3-4, 2025 as a typhoon. Flooding and casualties were reported in the Philippines as this storm moved through.
The area is currently experienceing aftershocks from major events last month and could see a further significant event with Typhoon Kalmaegi. A moderate to moderately strong earthquake is possible in the area at this time with the full moon of November 5. The antipode is at 10S 58E - is in the South Atlantic near Brazil and is not likely to see seismic enhancement at this time.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of November 3, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
XXXX 0110 0145 0320 M4.0 (November 4, 2025) 1.2E-01
Bolivia M 4.0 01:36 UT
Kamchatka M 6.0 03:45 UT M 5.1 03:36 UT M 4.5 03:26 UT
South Sandwich Is. M 5.1 03:21 UT
2350 0356 0430 0506 C7.1 (November 3, 2025) 2.2E-02
Hawaii M 3.6 04:07 UT
Molucca M 5.3 04:21 UT
Kuril Is. M 5.3 03:55 UT
2370 0643 0649 0651 C3.0 (November 3, 2025) 1.8E-03
Kamchatka M 5.8 07:10 UT
Coast Oregon M 2.8 07:10 UT
Nevada M 2.3 06:59 UT
2410 0841 0925 0938 M1.6 (November 3, 2025) 4.1E-02
Kamchatka M 6.1 08:44 UT M 5.0 08:59 UT Northern California M 2.1 09:16 UT
2420 0938 1011 1037 M5.0 (November 3, 2025) 1.3E-01
Fiji M 4.3 09:40 UT
Kamchatka M 4.8 10:02 UT
Kermadec M 4.7 10:12 UT
Honshu M 4.7 10:18 UT
Kyushu M 4.2 10:18 UT
2440 1219 1235 1237 M2.9 (November 3, 2025) 2.9E-02
Western Turkey M 5.0 12:36 UT
Kamchatka M 4.7 12:19 UT
Banda Sea M 4.1 12:25 UT
2610 1237 1247 1251 M3.3 (November 3, 2025) 3.0E-02
Western Turkey M 5.0 12:36 UT
2450 1557 1602 1605 C1.5 (November 3, 2025) 7.8E-04
Atacama M 5.5 15:52 UT
Oaxaca M 4.2 16:08 UT
2460 1652 1659 1703 C1.8 (November 3, 2025) 1.2E-03
Banda Sea M 4.0 17:03 UT
Kamchatka M 4.9 16:54 UT
Sumbawa M 4.3 16:58 UT
2470 1704 1708 1710 M1.5 (November 3, 2025) 4.0E-03
Banda Sea M 4.0 17:03 UT
2500 2103 2112 2119 C2.1 (November 3, 2025) 1.8E-03
Antofagasta M 4.3 21:22 UT
2510 2143 2151 2200 C2.0 (November 3, 2025) 2.1E-03
New Guinea M 4.8 21:57 UT
2520 2212 2228 2237 C4.5 (November 3, 2025) 5.0E-03
Kamchatka M 4.9 22:17 UT 22:30 UT M 4.7
Guatemala M 4.0 22:40 UT
Northern California M 2.8 22:18 UT C8.7
2540 2337 0008 0033 C8.7 (November 3, 2025) 2.2E-02
Kamchatka M 4.4 23:35 UT M 4.8 00:17 UT M 4.4 00:25 UT
Sumatra M 4.0 23:48 UT
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: unsettled November 4 quiet November 5 minor storms November 6. Solar M-flare chance: 55% X-class: 10% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 18 31 15 16:00 5 87 133
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 24, 2025 at 17:47:02 UT (#251024A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 18, 2025 at 03:12:02 UT (#251018A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
November 3, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
A strong earthquake occurred in north-central Afghanistan. Press reports indicate
at least 20 were killed in this event while hundreds were injured. Damage was
extensive in the epicentral area. EMSC reported a severe earthquake in Afghanistan in Mazar-e Sharif Dehdadi, Qarchi Gak, Kunduz, and in Uzbekistan at Tirmiz, Sho'rchi, and felt as far as Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. NEIC reported intensity VI in Afghanistan at Mazar-e Sharif and Dawlat and in Termiz, Uzbekistan with IV in Sho'rchi and Kattaqo'rg'on, and in Tajikistan at Kofarnihon, Dushanbe and in Afghanistan at Dahana, Balh, it was also felt with lightly with intensity II-III in Uzbekistan at Buxoro, Samarkand, Jomboy, Tashkent, Kimyogarlar, Qarshi, Urganch; in Tajikistan at Obigarm and in Asgabat, Turkmenistan. This event occurred during a moderate
geomagnetic storm near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by
energy associated with that event which reached high latitude K-index of 5 at the time of the storm.
This is the strongest earthquake in Afghanistan within about 200 km of this
epicenter in at least 35 years. The only such event in this time of M>=6.0
was an M 6.1 on May 1, 2006. When an M 5.6 occurred near today's epicenter on April 18, 2010
this summary noted:
"A moderate earthquake of M 5.7 was also felt in the region of Central
Afghanistan at Capchal, Samangan, Afghanistan. NEIC reported intensity
IV at Baghlan, Mazar-e Sharif, Pangab and II-III in Baghrami, Baraki Barak,
Dushambe, Gaz Aab, Kabul, Shebergan and Sahrak, Afghanistan.
Reuters did not report any immediate damages or injuries. This is the
second strongest earthquake in Afghanistan in the current year and the
largest since Feb. 27 of M 5.7. It is the strongest in this region of Central
Afghanistan since an M 5.9 about 200 km southeast of this on October 5,
2008." (April 18, 2010)
This epicenter is near the sixth node (60 degrees) from recent major earthquakes
in Central Philippines and Kamchatka and at the sixth node (59.9 degrees) from the landfall of
Typhoon Kalmaegi in central Philippines and may have been promoted by
energy from those sources.
This summary had expected Typhoon Kalmaegi to have this effects as noted
in this and previous issues of this summary:
"TS Kalmaegi continued today in the region of the north Pacific east of central Philippines with winds up to 100 kts. It could help promote moderate seismicity as it tracks to the west encountering Leyte and Samar, Philippines around November 3-4, 2025 as a typhoon. The area is currently experienceing aftershocks from major events last month and could see a further significant event with Typhoon Kalmaegi. A moderate to moderately strong earthquake is possible in the area at this time with the full moon of November 5. The antipode is at 10S 53E - is in the South Atlantic near Brazil and is not likely to see seismic enhancement at this time." (November 2-3, 2025)
Readers may recall that following the landfall of Hurricane Melissa earlier
in the week, several moderate earthquakes of M 5.4 occurred at 50 degrees
from the eye of that hurricane - in Iceland and in the Kenai Peninsula,
Alaska. This was reported in this summary at the time as:
"This epicenter in Iceland is at 60.0 degrees (node 6) from the landfall position
of Hurricane Melissa of October 29 and occurred as that landfall was occurring." (October 29, 2025)
and
"This epicenter (in Kenai Alaska) was probably also promoted by energy associated with Hurricane
Melissa. It is located at 60.0 degrees from the position of the eye of
Melissa at the time of the earthquake. This is similar to the circumstances
associated with the M 5.4 in Central Iceland reported in the previous issue ..." (October 31, 2025)
It is possible that stress conditions set up at time of major storm landfalls
favor triggering of seismicity at the sixth node (60 degrees). This can be
verified by examination of previous data and other landfall events. Other
earthquakes today near the sixth node from landfall of Kalmaegi occurred in the
Rat Islands, Aleutians (M 4.5). This event occurred about 10 minutes before
the earthquake in Afghanistan.
O: 02NOV2025 20:29:01 36.6N 67.5E MW=6.3 EMSC CENTRAL AFGHANISTAN
O: 02NOV2025 20:19:54 51.2N 178.3E MB=4.5 EMSC RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
A strong geomagnetic storm began at high latitudes today at about 09:00 UT November 3, 2025.
It reached high latitude k-index of 7 quickly, the strongest K-index at high latitudes in the previous month. This sudden commencement
storm is likely to trigger strong seismicity at high latitudes (Alaska, Kamchatka, Iceland for example)
at or near its onset with seismicity quickly returning to background shortly
thereafter.
A series of moderate to strong earthquakes occurred today beginning with
the strong geomagnetic storm noted above. These included an M 5.8 and M 6.1
and were felt in the area of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and Yelizovo, Russia.
These are aftershocks of the major earthquakes in Kamchatka of M 8.8 on July 29, 2025 and M 7.8 on September 18, 2025.
No earthquake of M>6.1 have occurred in Kamchatka since the M 7.8 of
mid-September 2025. Earthquakes of M 6.0-6.1 have occurred on October 3 and October 9, 2025 -
also with major geomagnetic storms.
These epicenters in Kamchatka are located at the seventh node (51 degrees) from
the position of the landfall of Typhoon Kalmaegi in the Philippines today
and at the same distance from recent strong earthquakes in the Philippines
and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 03NOV2025 08:07:38 52.8N 159.0E MB=5.1 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 07:19:46 52.2N 160.2E mb=4.8 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 01:49:14 52.3N 160.0E mb=5.0 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 07:10:23 52.3N 160.1E mb=5.8 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 08:44:40 52.3N 160.1E Mw=6.1 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 02:40:10 52.6N 159.6E mb=4.8 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 03NOV2025 07:59:13 52.0N 160.4E mb=4.8 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
A moderate earthquake of M 5.5 also occurred today in the Central Philippines
as Typhoon Kalmaegi was making landfall and was probably promoted by energy
from that source. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV inthe Philippines in the Central Visayas in Lepanto, Asia and III in Sipalay, Nabitasan, Bacong, Cagbang, Banilad, Talisay, Bayawan, and Diwan.
EMSC reported moderate to strong shaking in the Philippines at Mabinay, Bais, Candoni, Maninihon, Suay, Bacuyangan, Talaban, Sibulan, Bacolod City, Alegria, Concepcion, Talisay, Dipolog, Tigum, Balabag, Tangke, Cebu City, Apas, Consolacion.
The last earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter in the Negros area
of the Philippines with M>=5.5 occurred as an M 6.2 on May 15, 2014. At the time
this summary noted:
"The earthquake in the Philippines was widely felt throughout most of the area of Mindanao and Negros.
Phivolcs reported intensity V in Hinoba-an and Sipalay, Newgro Occidental; IV in Iloilo City; Bago City; Pandan, Antique, Basay, Newgros Occ; Binalbagan, Negros Occ. Bayawan Cityk, Negros Oriental; III in Roxas City, Bais City; La Carlota City; Zamboanga City, Lapulapu City; Cebu City, La Castellana, Negros Occ; Bacolod City; Dumaguete City, Jagna, Bohol; Oton, Iloilo; Tayasan; Jimalalud; Ayungon; and Sibulan, Negros Or.; Dipolog City; Nueva Valencia, Guimaras; Anini-y, Antique, Siquijor Island; Tagbilaran City; II in San Jose, Antique; Sibalom, Antique, Pagadian City; Cagayan de Oro City; Osamis City, San Remegio, Culasi, Sebaste and Tobias Fornier, Antique and I in Masbate City; Kalibo, Aklan; Labason; Polanco and Manukan, Zamboanga del Norte, Philippines.
EMSC reported maximum intensity in Dumaguete, La Carlota City, Iloilo City, Minglanilla, Cebu City and Mandaue City, Philippines. There were no immediate reports of damage or casualties.
This is the strongest earthquake to occur within 200 km of this epicenter since
events of M 6.7 on February 6, 2012 and July 11, 2011 of M 6.7 and 6.2 respectively.
The earthquake of 2012 was damaging and deadly in the region and occurred
within two days of the full moon. The quake of July, 2011 occurred three days
before the full moon." (May 15, 2014)
This is not a classical aftershock of recent major earthquakes in the region as it
occurred nearly 500 km west and south of those mainshocks.
A series of strong volcanic eruptions is also occurring the the central
Philippines at this time. These area probably related to the events
in Leyte and Mindanao of M>7 in the recent past.
O: 02NOV2025 19:06:54 9.7N 122.9E MW=5.5 EMSC NEGROS, PHILIPPINES
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in Veracruz, Mexico was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Veracruz, Mexico at Tlalnepantla.
O: 02NOV2025 23:19:29 17.8N 94.2W MB=5.0 EMSC VERACRUZ, MEXICO
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.7 in Bio-Bio, Chile was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Bio-Bio, Chile with III in Talcahuano.
EMSC reported moderate and quick shaking in Bio-Bio at Coronel and Concepcion.
This epicenter is located at 144-147 degrees from the landfall of Typhoon Kalmaegi and recent major earthquakes
in the Central Philippines and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 02NOV2025 18:51:49 36.9S 73.9W MB=4.7 EMSC OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.3 in Armenia was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Armenia with III in Tbilisi, Georgia.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Armenia at Mayisyan, Gyumri, Arrap'i, Spitak, Yerevan, Vanadzor, Gugark', Tsqmet'i, Tbilisi, Zahesi, Georgia.
This epicenter is located at the fifth node (72 degrees) from Kamchatka and may have been
promoted by energy from that source.
O: 02NOV2025 15:49:31 41.1N 44.0E MB=4.3 EMSC ARMENIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.9 in Western Turkey was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Western Turkey in Halkidiki, Greece and in Istanbul, Turkey.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Western Turkey at Sindirgi, Gordes, Demirci, Akhisar, Soma, Dursunbey, Balikesir, Manisa, Muradiye among others.
This epicenter is located at 90 degrees (node 4) from the landfall of Typhoon
Kalmaegi; and the recent major earthquakes in central Philippines and may
have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 02NOV2025 12:41:09 39.2N 28.2E MB=4.9 EMSC WESTERN TURKEY
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.2 in the Channel Islands, California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Channel Islands, California in San Diego.
This epicenter is located at 103 degrees from the landfall of Typhoon Kalmaegi today;
the major earthquakes in central Philippines and the Drake Passage and may have been promoted
by constructive interference of energy from these sources.
O: 02NOV2025 08:04:18 33.4N 119.1W ML=3.1 EMSC CHANNEL ISLANDS REG., CALIFORN
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 2.3 in San Francisco, California was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of San Francisco, California in Alameda, San Leandro.
This epicenter is located at 102 degrees from the major earthquake in Mindanao, Philippines and
may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 02NOV2025 13:05:24 37.8N 122.2W MD=2.4 EMSC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
TYPHOON KALMAEGI
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH KALMAEGI 2025-11-03 00:00 UT 10.4N 127.7E 100 kts North Pacific Ocean
TS Kalmaegi continued today in the region of the north Pacific east of central Philippines with winds up to 100 kts. It could help promote moderate seismicity as it tracks to the west encountering Leyte and Samar, Philippines around November 3-4, 2025 as a typhoon. The area is currently experienceing aftershocks from major events last month and could see a further significant event with Typhoon Kalmaegi. A moderate to moderately strong earthquake is possible in the area at this time with the full moon of November 5. The antipode is at 10S 53E - is in the South Atlantic near Brazil and is not likely to see seismic enhancement at this time.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of November 2, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2170 0013 0026 0037 M1.0 (November 2, 2025) 9.9E-03
Drake Passage M 5.0 00:16 UT
2250 1233 1246 1256 C8.2 (November 2, 2025) 9.9E-03
Western Turkey M 4.9 12:41 UT
Southern Peru M 4.1 12:41 UT
Southern Peru M 4.9 12:47 UT
San Francisco M 2.4 13:05 UT
2260 2108 2119 2126 C3.7 (November 2, 2025) 2.7E-03
Kuril Is. M 4.5 21:16 UT
2270 2229 2235 2238 C2.8 (November 2, 2025) 1.1E-03
2280 2353 0003 0007 C4.5 (November 2, 2025) 2.4E-03
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: active November 3 unsettled November 4 quiet November 5. Solar M-flare chance: 25% X-class: 5% proton storm: 5%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 18 31 15 16:00 5 43 123
A strong geomagnetic storm began at high latitudes today at about 09:00 UT November 3, 2025.
It reached high latitude k-index of 7 quickly. This sudden commencement
storm is likely to trigger strong seismicity at high latitudes (Alaska, Kamchatka, Iceland for example)
at or near its onset with seismicity quickly returning to background shortly
thereafter.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 24, 2025 at 17:47:02 UT (#251024A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 18, 2025 at 03:12:02 UT (#251018A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
November 2, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
It was a relatively quiet day in global seismicity today. There were no significant
earthquakes of M>5 recorded. Currently there are few triggers for seismicity with
tropical storms quiet, no major solar flares and a moderate geomagnetic storm. These
conditions often lead to quiet seismicity. This may change in the next several
days, however, as several active solar flare producing area are rotating into
earth-effective position; a super full moon is due November 5 and a tropical
cyclone east of the central Philippines should make landfall in an active
region of Samar and Leyte, Philippines in the next two days. Effects from the
full moon have been noted in this summary in previous issues as:
"The full moon will arrive on November 5, 2025 at 13:19 UT. This is the closest
super-moon of the year (the moon is closest to earth at this time). Tidal stresses
will be exceptionally high and could lead to considerable seismic enhancement next week.
Longitudes which are sub-solar at this time are in the central Atlantic near 30 West longitude including the mid-Atlantic Ridge and Iceland while those at anti-solar positions are
near 150 East Longitude and include areas of eastern Indonesia, Kamchatka, Japan. These
are most likely to see tidal promotion of seismicity at this time but many areas
can see enhanced seismicity with the full moon which are not sub- or anti-solar.
Global seismicity is expected to moderate to moderately high November 3-8, 2025." (October 29-31, 2025)
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.9 in Northern Sumatra was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Northern Sumatra with II in Meulaboh Aceh.
This epicenter is at the fifth node (72 degrees) from Kamchatka and at the third node from
the Drake Passage and may have been promoteed by energy from those sources.
O: 01NOV2025 21:00:09 4.0N 96.0E MB=4.9 EMSC OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.7 east of Los Angeles, California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of east of Los Angeles, California in Big Bear City (III) and in Los Angeles, California.
This epicenter is at 104-105 degrees from recent major events in the Central Philipines and
the Drake Passage and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 01NOV2025 19:31:36 34.3N 116.8W ML=2.7 EMSC SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.7 in Northern Nevada was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Northern Nevada in Glenbrook.
This epicenter is at 104-107 degrees from recent major events in the Central Philipines and
the Drake Passage and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 01NOV2025 19:15:15 38.5N 116.5W ML=3.7 EMSC NEVADA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.8 in southern Idaho was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of southern Idaho in Lava Hot Springs.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.3 in Iran-Iraq border was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Iran-Iraq border in Khanaqin, Iraq.
O: 01NOV2025 11:25:02 34.2N 45.4E MB=4.6 EMSC IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS KALMAEGI 2025-11-02 00:00 UT 11.3N 133.3E 65 kts North Pacific Ocean
TS Kalmaegi continued today in the region of the north Pacific southwest of Guam with winds up to 65 kts. It could help promote moderate seismicity as it tracks to the west encounter Leyte and Samar, Philippines around November 3-4, 2025 as a typhoon. The area is currently experienceing aftershocks from major events last month and could see a further significant event with Typhoon Kalmaegi. A moderate to moderately strong earthquake is possible in the area at this time with the full moon of November 6. The antipode is at 11S 47E - is in the South Atlantic near Brazil and is not likely to see seismic enhancement at this time.
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of November 1, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2060 0816 0830 0841 C3.0 (November 1, 2025) 3.1E-03
Kuril Is. M 4.2 08:20 UT
Los Angeles M 2.0 08:39 UT
2080 1027 1034 1039 C1.2 (November 1, 2025) 8.0E-04
Banda Sea M 4.0 10:46 UT
2120 1649 1655 1700 C4.7 (November 1, 2025) 2.1E-03
Fiji M 4.4 16:50 UT
2140 2311 2322 2335 C2.8 (November 1, 2025) 3.3E-03
Fiji M 4.5 23:27 UT
2150 2348 2358 0006 C1.8 (November 1, 2025) 2.0E-03
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: active November 2-3 unsettled November 4. Solar M-flare chance: 25% X-class: 5% proton storm: 5%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 14 24 9 16:00 5 24 115
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 24, 2025 at 17:47:02 UT (#251024A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
November 1, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
A strong geomagnetic storm began mid-day on October 31 and continued above SWPC alert levels
through most of November 1, 2025. This could lead to enhancement of ionospheric
ring currents and ultimate in a couple of days to increased induced telluric
currents in the earth under these currents. This can then lead to enhanced
seismicity in areas near the geomagnetic equator and at high latitude. A moderate proton enhancement
late on November 1 may mitigate the effects of the electron flux however. Enhanced seismicity
seems most likely with the full moon of November 5 as noted in previous
issues of this summary:
"The full moon will arrive on November 5, 2025 at 13:19 UT. This is the closest
super-moon of the year (the moon is closest to earth at this time). Tidal stresses
will be exceptionally high and could lead to considerable seismic enhancement next week.
Longitudes which are sub-solar at this time are in the central Atlantic near 30 West longitude including the mid-Atlantic Ridge and Iceland while those at anti-solar positions are
near 150 East Longitude and include areas of eastern Indonesia, Kamchatka, Japan. These
are most likely to see tidal promotion of seismicity at this time but many areas
can see enhanced seismicity with the full moon which are not sub- or anti-solar.
Global seismicity is expected to moderate to moderately high November 3-8, 2025." (October 29-31, 2025)
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.9-6.0 in the South Indian Ridge southwest of Western Australia.
While Hurricane Melissa has dropped off the NHC raday, the last position
given by WMO for the dissipation of this storm is near 46N 60W off Newfoundland, Canada. The epicenter west of
Australia is is not far from the antipode of the dissipation location of Hurricane
Melissa and may have been promoted by energy from the dissipation of that storm.
The last earthquake within about 250 km of today's epicenter in the South Indian Ridge
with M>=5.9 occurred on March 24, 2019 (M 6.3) and prior to that on November 10, 2010 (M 6.5).
A more recent earthquake, and perhaps a foreshock to today's event, was
registered on October 25, 2025. At the time this summary noted:
"An unusually large earthquake also occurred with M 5.4 in the southeast Indian Ridge.
It may have been felt in the epicentral area but this was not reported by NEIC.
This earthquake occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted
by tidal and/or geomagnetic stresses which maximize near this hour.
Today's earthquake in the Southeast Indian Ridge may have been promoted
by the fourth largest solar flare of the day as it occurred at the peak output of solar flare 1640 (B9.5).
Data from SWPC for this flare follow:
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1640 1621 1628 1634 B9.5 (October 25, 2025) 7.5E-04
Southeast Indian Ridge M 5.4 16:31 UT
This epicenter in the Indian Ridge is nearly antipodal to an M 3.0 which
occurred on October 20, 2025 in Ontario, Canada. Readers can make their
own determination of antipodality of these two epicenters." (October 26, 2025)
This epicenter is at the sixth node (60 degrees) from recent major earthquakes
in the Philippines and at the fifth node (72 degrees) from the Drake Passage
and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 31OCT2025 20:53:24 45.3S 96.9E MW=6.0 NEIC SOUTHEAST INDIAN RIDGE
O: 31OCT2025 20:53:24 45.3S 96.9E Mw=5.9 EMSC SOUTHEAST INDIAN RIDGE
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.1 in South Island, New Zealand was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of South Island, New Zealand with II in Christchurch, Canterbury.
GEONET reported it was felt with moderate intensity in the area northeast of Arthur's Pass, South Island, New Zealand. 336 reports of light to moderate intensity came from the area of southern North Island and Wellington and northern South Island, New Zealand with 201 reporting weak, 125 light and 9 moderate shaking and 1 extreme.
This epicenter is near the fifth node (722 degrees) from recent major earthquakes
in the Philippines and from the Drake Passage and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 01NOV2025 00:47:37 42.6S 171.9E ML=4.8 GEONET Arthur's Pass, South Island, New Zealand
O: 01NOV2025 00:47:37 42.7S 172.0E ML=4.6 EMSC SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
O: 01NOV2025 00:47:37 42.7S 172.0E ML=4.1 NEIC SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 east of Mindanao, Philippines was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Mindanao, Philippines in Davao.
BMG reported an earthquake of M 5.3 in Papua New Guinea was felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of Papua New Guinea in Kab Sarmi; II in Jayawijaya, Jayapura, Puncak, Jaya, Keerom, Pegunungan, Yahukimo, Tolikara, Mamberamo, Yalimo, Lanny, Puncak and Jayapura.
O: 01NOV2025 04:32:39 2.0S 139.4E MB=4.9 EMSC NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONES
NEIC reported an earthquake of M in was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of
NEIC reported an earthquake of M in was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of
NEIC reported an earthquake of M in was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of
NEIC reported an earthquake of M in was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of
NEIC reported an earthquake of M in was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of
NEIC reported an earthquake of M in was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of
EMSC reported an earthquake of M in was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of
EMSC reported an earthquake of M in was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of
EMSC reported an earthquake of M in was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of
EMSC reported an earthquake of M in was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of
EMSC reported an earthquake of M in was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of
There are no tropical cyclones currently active.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS KALMAEGI 2025-11-01 00:00 UT 10.6N 136.4E 50 kts North Pacific Ocean
TS Kalmaegi formed today in the region of the north Pacific southwest of Guam with winds up to 50 kts. It could help promote moderate seismicity as it tracks to the west encounter Leyte and Samar, Philippines around November 3, 2025 as a typhoon. The area is currently experienceing aftershocks from major events lat month and could see a further significant event with Typhoon Kalmaegi. A moderate to moderately strong earthquake is possible in the area at this time with the full moon of November 6. The antipode is at 11S 44E - is in the South Atlantic near Brazil and is not likely to see seismic enhancement at this time.
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 31, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1880 0144 0201 0230 C1.8 (October 31, 2025) 4.0E-03
Ecuador M 3.9 02:02 UT
Guerrero M 4.0 02:10 UT
Ryukyu Is. M 4.5 02:29 UT
1910 0825 0838 0856 C1.1 (October 31, 2025) 1.9E-03
Kamchatka M 4.9 08:57 UT
Chiapas M 4.1 08:35 UT
1920 1639 1653 1723 C3.7 (October 31, 2025) 7.5E-03
Kamchatka M 4.3 16:48 UT
Banda Sea M 4.7 17:02 UT
1970 1937 2043 2140 C7.1 (October 31, 2025) 3.4E-02
South Sandwich Is. M 5.2 19:30 UT
Philippines M 4.5 20:28 UT
South Indian Ridge M 6.0 20:53 UT
Philippines M 4.9 20:44 UT
1990 2317 2326 2337 C2.3 (October 31, 2025) 2.8E-03
Taiwan M 4.4 23:17 UT
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: active November 1-3. Solar M-flare chance: 20% X-class: 5% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 25 47 16 16:00 6 125
October 31, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
The strongest earthquake felt in the world today was an M 5.4 in the Kenai, Alaska area. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity V in Alaska at Cooper Landing; IV in Homer, Anchor Point, Seward, Clam Gulch, Kenai, Soldotna, Moose Pass and III in Sterling and Girdwood.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Alaska at Diamond Ridge, Seward, Honer, MacDonald Spit, Seldovia, Bear Creek, Ninichik, Anchor Point, Funny River, Soldotna, Kenai, Nikiski, Girdwood, Anchorage, Eagle River.
No damage or casualties or tsunami was reported with this earthquake. The
last earthquake of M>=5.4 in the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska within abouot 200 km
of today's epicenter was an M 5.4 on March 19, 2023 with the last of larger magnitude
and M 5.8 more than six years ago on May 27, 2019. At the time this summary
noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.4 in Southern Alaska. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity V in Alaska at Anchor Point, Homer, Ninilchik, IV in Kenai National Wildlife Refuge and III in Clam Gulch, Kasilof, Soldotna, Sterling, Cooper Landing, Kenai, Anchorage, Girdwood, Iliamna, Fort Richardson, Eagle River, Willow, Wasilla, Chugiak, Palmer and Valdez.
This is the largest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter in the
Kenai Peninsula of Alaska since an M 5.8 about 100 km southwest of today's epicenter on May 27, 2019.
At the time this summary noted in this regard:
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.8 in the Kodiak Island region of Southern Alaska.
EIC reported intensity IV in Homer and Anchor point and II-III in Ninilchik, Pedro Bay, Kodiak Kenai NTL, Kasilof, Soldotna and Sterling, Alaska among others.
This is the strongest earthquake in the Kodiak area within about 150 km of this epicener
since an M 7.1 to the north on January 24, 2016." (May 27, 2019)
An M 5.9 at intermediate depth also occurred about 200 km northwest of today's
epicenter in the Kenai Peninsula on December 21, 2021. At the time this
summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the world today occurred in the Kenai area of Southern Alaska with M 5.9. NEIC reported maximum intensity V in southern Alaska at West Kenai, and IV in Anchor Point, Ninilchik, Calm Gulch, Kasilof, Soldotna, Homer, Sterling, Pedro Bay and North Lake among other communities in southern Alaska.
This earthquake occurred on a day when the Wolf Sunspot number was the highest
since the last solar active period six years ago
...
The last earthquake of larger magnitude within about 200 km of today's event
occurred about 50 km south of today's epicenter on January 24, 2016 with M 7.1 and
prior to that an M 6.2 on July 29, 2015. Both of these events were associated
with strong solar outbursts. Today's earthquake occurred within minutes of
local solar noon (like the M 7.2 in Northern California yesterday) and
was likely promoted by strong tidal and geomagnetic stresses which maximize
near this hour." (December 21, 2021, March 19, 2023)
Today's event appears to have been triggered by a strong geomagnetic storm
at high latitudes. High latitude k-index reached 7 at the time of the earthquake
in Alaska. This is the greatest geomagnetic disturbance at high latitudes
since October 1, 2025 (nearly a month ago) when K also reached 7.
This epicenter was probably also promoted by energy associated with Hurricane
Melissa. It is located at 60.0 degrees from the position of the eye of
Melissa at the time of the earthquake. This is similar to the circumstances
associated with the M 5.4 in Central Iceland reported in the previous issue
of this summary:
"This epicenter in Iceland is at 60.0 degrees (node 6) from the landfall position
of Hurricane Melissa of October 29 and occurred as that landfall was occurring.
It was probably promoted by that exchange of energy." (October 30, 2025)
Today's event in Alaska also occurred in a volcanic active region on the
interface between the North American and Pacific tectonic plates. This summary
had expected enhanced activity along this boundary in previous issues at this time
as:
"Hurricane Melissa, the strongest ocean storm in the world this year with winds up to 200 mph, will make slopefall late in October, 2025 and could also add
stress to faults along the Pacific-North American western boundaries, further
increasing the possibility of a moderate quake at that time. Hurricane Melissa is expected
to cause extensive damage in Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas and Bermuda before moving
into the Atlantic Ocean. At this time it is stationary near Jamaica. A nor-easter
is also considered a possibility at that time. Nor'easters on the East
Coast of the U.S. may help promote enhanced seismicity in the western U.S.
as has been seen on numerous previous occasions." (October 28, 2025)
and
"Today's epicenter (in Yellowstone National Park) is at 105 degrees from the M 7.1 in Leyte, Philippines and
may have been promoted by energy from that source. It is also at the ninth node (40 degrees)
from the eye of Hurricane Melissa at the time of the earthquake and may have
been promoted by stresses associated with that storm. These stresses
from hurricane landfall often enhance seismicity in areas of volcanism
as they squeeze fluids into new fissures. Other volcanic zones at nodal
distances from Hurricane Melissa include, among other, the area off the coast
of Oregon where Axial Volcano is still expected to erupt shortly (7th node - 51-52 degrees)
and Iceland (6th node - 60 degrees). Watch these area in coming days for
signs of increased seismicity." (October 29, 2025)
O: 30OCT2025 17:33:13 59.7N 150.3W MW=5.4 EMSC KENAI PENINSULA, ALASKA
An earthquake of M 5.5 also occurred today in the Kermadec Islands, New Zealand.
It was not reported felt in this remote area.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in Western Turkey was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Western Turkey in Usak.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Turkey at Akhisar, Savastepe, Balikesir, Simav, Edremit, Usak, Gorukle, Bayrakli, Cali, Izmir, Karsiyaka, Buca, Bandirma, Nilufer, Osmangazi, Yildirim, Gursu, Bahcelievler, Corlu, Ula.
O: 31OCT2025 04:18:52 39.2N 28.2E MB=4.2 EMSC WESTERN TURKEY
O: 30OCT2025 20:52:07 39.2N 28.3E ML=4.0 EMSC WESTERN TURKEY
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.1 in Northern Kansas was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Northern Kansas with IV in Dorrance; III in Wilson, Sylvan Grove and II in Dighton.
O: 30OCT2025 22:16:55 38.9N 98.5W ML=3.1 EMSC KANSAS
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.9 in Northern Nevada was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Northern Nevada in Winnemucca.
O: 30OCT2025 12:47:13 38.5N 116.5W ML=3.0 EMSC NEVADA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.6 in San Francisco Bay, California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of San Francisco Bay, California in Hercules, Pleasant Hill, Concord, Oakland, Wilton, Walnut Creek, San Jose, Port Costa, Martinez, San Francisco, Concord, Lafayette, Moraga, Sunnyvale.
O: 30OCT2025 10:50:25 38.0N 122.0W MD=2.6 EMSC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.2 in Central California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central California with intensity II in Cambria, Atascadero and San Luis Obispo.
O: 30OCT2025 08:14:25 35.8N 121.3W ML=3.0 EMSC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 30OCT2025 08:14:25 35.8N 121.3W ML=3.2 NEIC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in O'Higgins, Chile was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of O'Higgins, Chile at Curico, Molina, Chimbarongo, Teno, Rengo.
TODAY'S MAP
Stippled green dots represent areas at nodal distances from the current position of the eye of Hurricane Melissa in the Caribbean near Jamaica as of October 28, 2025.
Stippled white lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.4 in Mindanao, Philippines of October 10, 2025.
Stippled lavender lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October 10, 2025.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
HURRICANE MELISSA
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR MELISSA 2025-10-31 00:00 UT 24.8N 73.9W 100 kts Bahamas/Bermuda
HURR MELISSA 2025-11-01 00:00 UT 39.0N 60.5W 75 kts North Atlantic Ocean
Hurricane Melissa continued today in the region of Bermuda with winds up to 100 kts. It hit Jamaica and southern Cuba yesterday causing much damage and loss of life. Entire villages were destroyed by this very powerful hurricane. The Dominican Republic and Haiti were also hit. It could help promote moderate seismicity in that area at that time. A moderate to moderately strong earthquake is possible in the area at this time in the Caribbean area. Much of the area surrounding the Caribbean has been active in the past several days and this could continue for the next several days. The antipode is at 25S 108E - is in northern Australia and is not a highly seismic zone but minor enhancement is possible in the area south of Sumatra at this time.
This is the strongest tropical storm in the world during the year 2025.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 30, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight at the time of occurrence and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1900 1205 1237 1329 C1.4 (October 30, 2025) 6.1E-03
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: active October 31 active November 1-2. Solar M-flare chance: 5% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 38 58 24 16:00 7 68 120
October 30, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
Four earthquakes of M 5.4-5.5 occurred in the world today. These were located
south of New Zealand in the Snares Island area; as an M 5.5 in the northern Kermadec
Islands or New Zealand and in Iceland and off the Coast of Oregon both with
M 5.4. While each of these were at nodal distances from the landfall position
of Hurricane Melissa yesterday and today, the later two are of particular
interest.
The earthquake in Iceland is in a volcanic area of central Iceland. At M 5.4
it is the largest event in this region of Iceland since an M 5.4 on December 15, 2014
but the last and only such event in the past 25 years in this area of significantly
larger magnitude occurred at the beginning of this series on August 26, 2014 with M 5.7.
At the time this summary noted:
"The earthquake of M 5.7 in Iceland is the strongest recorded in that area
since an M 5.8 on September 16, 2002, the only other event of this size in
Iceland in the past 25 years. It is part of the sub-glacial Bardarbunga volcanic eruption
in the central portion of that island." (August 26, 2014)
Oddly enough, this earthquake in Iceland in 2014 occurred while Hurricane Cristobal
was near the same position where Hurricane Melissa now stands. At the time
this summary noted this as:
"Hurricane Cristobal continued today east of Florida with winds up to 75 kts where it
encountered the continental shelf. As this storm hit the continental shelf at about the same time that the
M 6.1 quake hit in the western U.S. in the San Francisco area, it is not
unlikely that the motions imparted to the North American plate by this
Cristobal were in part responsible for the timing of that California earthquake." (August 26, 2014)
O: 29OCT2025 16:46:29 64.6N 17.4W MW=5.4 EMSC ICELAND
The other M 5.4 in North America today occurred off the coast of Oregon and
was accompanied by a foreshock of M 4.8 eighteeen minutes earlier. NEIC reported
these events were lightly felt along the coast of Oregon and California with intensity up
to II in Oregon at Beaverton, Klamath Falls, Hillsboro, Bandon, Rockaway Beach, Coos Bay, Willamina, and in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada and in California at Crescent City and Unioin City.
This activity occurred along the interface between the North American and Pacific Plates. The last earthquake of M>=5.4
within about 150 km of this epicenter was an M 5.6 on June 15, 2022 but the
last of significantly larger magnitude was an M 5.8 with moderate aftershocks
and foreshocks on December 8, 2021. At the time this summary noted:
"A strong series of earthquakes occurred off the coast of Oregon today at 120-130 West longitude. These events were reported lightly felt on the coast of Oregon including at Waldport, Eugene and Beaverton.
The largest of these was M 5.8 which was felt with intensity II-III in Oregon in Depoe Bay, Newport, Florence, Waldport, Hammond, Tualatin, Medford, Cloverdale, Seaside, Sheridan, Forest Grove, Springfield, Portland and as far as southern Washington State.
Other moderately large events of M 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.8, 5.3 ... also were recorded in this series.
The last earthquakes of M>=5.8 in this area off the coast of Oregon occurred in August and September, 2019
with M 6.3 and 5.9 and as an M 6.2 on August 22, 2018 and an M 5.9 on August 22, 2018. The
M 6.3 on August 29, 2019 is the strongest event in this area in the past 30 years.
Today's activity appears to be occurring the the volcanic vents off the coast
of Oregon. It is likely that this series was promoted by high tidal stresses associated
with the new moon/eclipse of December 4." (December 7-8, 2021)
Both the earthquakes in Iceland and off the coast of Oregon today occurred
with a geomagnetic storm which reached K-index of 6 at high latitudes at
the time of these earthquakes and may have contributed to their timing.
The earthquakes off Oregon are located at 51-52 degrees from the landfall
position of Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica and Cuba yesterday and today and
occurred while this landfall was occurring in Cuba. This is the seventh
node distance (51.4 degrees). It is likely that these events off Oregon
were promoted by energy from the landfall of Hurricane Melissa.
O: 29OCT2025 14:00:30 44.7N 129.0W MW=5.4 EMSC OFF COAST OF OREGON
O: 29OCT2025 13:42:50 44.7N 129.9W Mw=4.8 EMSC OFF COAST OF OREGON
In previous issues of this summary it had been noted that a significant
earthquake along the Pacific-North American boundary was likely with
landfall of Melissa. Enhanced seismicity had been especially expected
in volcanic zones as noted in these previous summaries. This is consistent
with the pattern of today's activity.
"Hurricane Melissa, the strongest ocean storm in the world this year with winds up to 200 mph, will make slopefall late in October, 2025 and could also add
stress to faults along the Pacific-North American western boundaries, further
increasing the possibility of a moderate quake at that time. Hurricane Melissa is expected
to cause extensive damage in Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas and Bermuda before moving
into the Atlantic Ocean. At this time it is stationary near Jamaica. A nor-easter
is also considered a possibility at that time. Nor'easters on the East
Coast of the U.S. may help promote enhanced seismicity in the western U.S.
as has been seen on numerous previous occasions." (October 28, 2025)
and
"Today's epicenter (in Yellowstone National Park) is at 105 degrees from the M 7.1 in Leyte, Philippines and
may have been promoted by energy from that source. It is also at the ninth node (40 degrees)
from the eye of Hurricane Melissa at the time of the earthquake and may have
been promoted by stresses associated with that storm. These stresses
from hurricane landfall often enhance seismicity in areas of volcanism
as they squeeze fluids into new fissures. Other volcanic zones at nodal
distances from Hurricane Melissa include, among other, the area off the coast
of Oregon where Axial Volcano is still expected to erupt shortly (7th node - 51-52 degrees)
and Iceland (6th node - 60 degrees). Watch these area in coming days for
signs of increased seismicity." (October 29, 2025)
This epicenter in Iceland is at 60.0 degrees (node 6) from the landfall position
of Hurricane Melissa of October 29 and occurred as that landfall was occurring.
It was probably promoted by that exchange of energy.
O: 29OCT2025 16:46:29 64.6N 17.4W MW=5.4 EMSC ICELAND
The full moon will arrive on November 5, 2025 at 13:19 UT. This is the closest
super-moon of the year (the moon is closest to earth at this time). Tidal stresses
will be exceptionally high and could lead to considerable seismic enhancement next week.
Longitudes which are sub-solar at this time are in the central Atlantic near 30 West longitude including the mid-Atlantic Ridge and Iceland while those at anti-solar positions are
near 150 East Longitude and include areas of eastern Indonesia, Kamchatka, Japan. These
are most likely to see tidal promotion of seismicity at this time but many areas
can see enhanced seismicity with the full moon which are not sub- or anti-solar.
Global seismicity is expected to moderate to moderately high November 3-8, 2025.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.5 in the Kermadec Islands of New Zealand was possibly lightly felt in the epicentral area.
This epicenter is at 108 degrees from the position of Hurricane Melissa and may
have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 30OCT2025 08:52:06 27.3S 178.4W mb=5.5 NEIC KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.0 in Southern California near Borrego Springs was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern California near Borrego Springs with II in Capistrano Beach, Borrego Springs and Palm Springs.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.1 in Bermuda may have been felt in the epicentral area south of Bermuda.
This is an unusual epicenter for a moderate earthquake. The last catalogued
earthquake of M>=4.1 within about 200 km of this epicenter near Bermuda was
listed on October 3, 2011 with M 4.4 and M 4.5. Three other events have hit
the area with M>=4.1 in the past 35 years - all at M 4.4-4.7. At the time
of the October, 2011 event this summary noted:
"A pair of highly unusual earthquakes of M 4.4-4.6 hit near Bermuda in the
northwestern Atlantic Ocean today. Only three events in this region (30-40N 60-70W) of
M>=4.4 have been located in this region in the past 22 years. These occurred
on July 2, 1995 (M 4.7), December 22, 1996 (M 4.4) and earlier this year on
April 18, 2011 (M 4.6). The earthquake in July, 1995 was followed the next
day by an M 7.2 in the Kermadec Islands but the other two earthquakes were
not associated with a subsequent strong or major global event. An area of
Western Australia at 31S 117E is seismic and very near the antipode for these
earthquakes. A series of light earthquakes of M 2.0, 2.1 and 2.2 hit this
epicenter on September 28-29 and a stronger earthquake is possible in that
area in the next several days. While a strong global event is overdue at this time, the immediate trigger for these two
events appears to be Hurricane Philippe which is currently located south
of Bermuda with winds of 65 kts. We had expected elevated seismicity in
this region associated with Philippe in our Weather related seismicity
section as follows:
"TS Philippe continued today in the central Atlantic with winds of 70 mph.
It is currently near the Central mid-Atlantic Ridge and is expected to take
a sharp turn to the north on October 3-4. Seismicity in this region is expected
to continued at high levels and Philippe continues in the area. It is
expected to move to the west at 08 mph and approach the Bahamas" (October 1-3, 2011)
(October 3, 2011)
Since it has been 14 years since the last earthquake of M 4.1 in the area
of Bermuda, its juxtaposition in time and space with Hurricane Melissa is probably
not coincidental. Hurricane Melissa is expected to pass over this epicenter
in Bermuda tomorrow (October 31, 2025) and has been one of the strongest
hurricanes on record in the northern Caribbean and Bermuda areas. It
appears likely that stress redistribution in Bermuda following the landfall
of Melissa in Jamaica and Cuba yesterday likely triggered today's event
in Bermuda.
This epicenter in Bermuda is at the fourth node (90 degrees) from the Drake Passage and
near this from Kamchatka and at 140 degrees from the major earthquakes in the
Philippines and may have been promoted by energy from those sources as well.
O: 30OCT2025 02:01:53 31.1N 64.8W MB=4.1 EMSC BERMUDA REGION
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.2 in Southern Idaho was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern Idaho in Boise.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.3 in Denali Natioinal Park, Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Denali Natioinal Park, Alaska in Fairbanks.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.8 in the Virgin Islands was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Virgin Islands in the U.S. Virgin Islands with III at Saint John and Saint Thomas and in Road Town, Tortola, British Virgin Islands.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in South Island, New Zealand was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of South Island, New Zealand in Riverton, Southland.
GeoNet reported the following for this event:
Felt with weak intensity in the area south of Te Anau, South Island. 18 reports of felt intensity came from the area east and north of the epicenter including 18 with weak intensity.
This epicenter is at 100 degrees from the major earthquakes in Kamchatka and
may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 29OCT2025 07:20:32 47.0S 165.1E MB=5.4 GEONET SNARES ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND
O: 29OCT2025 07:20:27 47.1S 164.8E MB=5.0 EMSC OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in Strait of Gibraltar was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Strait of Gibraltar in Spain at El Ejido, Balanegra, Roquetas de Mar, Roquetas de Mar, Aguadulce, Almeria, Alicun, Retamar, Motril, Retamar, San Jose, Almunecar, Nerja, and in Morocco at Fes, Al Hoceima.
This epicenter is located at the fourth node (90 degrees) from Kamchatka
and at 107 degrees from the Drake Passage and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 29OCT2025 21:38:19 36.5N 2.9W ML=4.2 EMSC STRAIT OF GIBRALTAR
TODAY'S MAP
Stippled green dots represent areas at nodal distances from the current position of the eye of Hurricane Melissa in the Caribbean near Jamaica as of October 29, 2025.
Stippled white lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.4 in Mindanao, Philippines of October 10, 2025.
Stippled lavender lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October 10, 2025.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
HURRICANE MELISSA
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR MELISSA 2025-10-30 00:00 UT 24.8N 73.9W 100 kts Bahamas/Bermuda
Hurricane Melissa continued today in the region of the Bahamas south of Bermuda with winds up to 100 kts. It hit Jamaica and southern Cuba yesterday causing much damage and loss of life. Entire villages were destroyed by this very powerful hurricane. The Dominican Republic and Haiti were also hit. It could help promote moderate seismicity in that area at that time. A moderate to moderately strong earthquake is possible in the area at this time in the Caribbean area. Much of the area surrounding the Caribbean has been active in the past several days and this could continue for the next several days. The antipode is at 25S 108E - is in northern Australia and is not a highly seismic zone but minor enhancement is possible in the area south of Sumatra at this time.
This is the strongest tropical storm in the world during the year 2025.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 29, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight at the time of occurrence and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1840 0505 0518 0531 B9.1 (October 29, 2025) 1.2E-03
Guerrero M 4.0 05:04 UT
Central California M 2.4 05:26 UT
Xinjiang M 4.5 05:17 UT
Baja California M 3.4 05:27 UT
Myanmar M 4.7 05:30 UT
Kansas M 3.2 05:14 UT
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: minor storms October 30 active October 31 unsettled November 1. Solar M-flare chance: 5% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 20 27 15 22:00 5 80 118
October 29, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.4-6.8 in the Banda Sea of
Indonesia. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III in Dili, East Timor and in the Northern Territory of Australia with intensity II-III in Palmerston, Darwin, Coonawarra and Humpty Doo-MacMinns Lagoon.
BMG reported intensity IV in Kab. Maluku at Dawelor Da; III in Banda, at Tengah and in Tenggara at Kei, Manyeuw, Hoat Sorba; in Tanimbat at Wer, Tanimbar, Yaru, Wuar Labob, Kormomolin, Nirunmas, Molu Maru, in Seram at Wakate, Pulau Panj, Teor among others.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Dili, Timor and Sorong and in Australia at Brinkin, KLeamyer, Karama, Ludmilla, Stuart Park, Larrakeyah, Driver, Johnston, Woodroffe, Bellamack, Katherine, Kununurra.
Strong earthquakes in the Banda Sea are often reported felt in Northern Territory, Australia.
This event follows a series of strong earthquakes in Central Indonesia
over the past several days. This region is located on the geomagnetic
equator where geomagnetic storms are geoeffective. Today's event occurred
at the peak of a geomagnetic storm which maximized with KP 6 about the
time of the Banda Sea event.
The area is also located at 145-150 degrees from the current position of
Hurricane Melissa. Seismic disturbance from major surface energy releases
such as hurricanes and strong earthquakes reflect and refract off the inner-outer
core boundary and return to the surface in this distance zone as a strong
arrival. Seismicity in this area is often seen to increase following major
earthquakes and/or tropical cyclone landfalls.
Today's event may be an aftershock of an M 6.7 which hit the area east of this
on July 14, 2025. At the time this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.7 in the Banda Sea area of Indonesia. NEIC reported it was felt in Indonesia at Ambon, Maluku with intensity IV in in the Northern Terrirory of Australia at Coonawarra with III in Darwin, Howard Springs, Humpty Doo-MacMinns Lagoon, Palmerston, and in Tual, Maluu, Indonesia with intensity II.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Dili, Tanimbar and in Australia at Berrimah, Woolner, Darwin, Larrakeyah, Stuart Park, Driver, Humpty Doo, Kununurra.
An M 4.4 foreshock occurred about 6 hours before the mainshock in the Banda Sea. This is the strongest earthquake in the world in more than two months - since an M 7.4 in the
Drake Passage south of South America on May 2, 2025. It is also the strongest earthquake
in the Banda Sea within about 250 km of this epicenter since an M 7.1 on November 8, 2023.
At the time this summary noted:
The strongest earthquakes in the world today were a pair of strong to major earthquakes of M 6.7 and 7.1 in the Banda Sea, Indonesia.
NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity III in the Banda Sea, Indonesia area.
The mainshock of M 7.1 was preceded about a minute early by a forecshock of M 6.7 which was felt in the area with maximum intensity VI.
These events were also felt in northern Australia at Darwin. BMG reported the mainshock
of M 7.1 was felt with intensity up to V in the Tanimbar Islands. BMG reported this
activity in the Tanimbar region was felt with intensity IV in Bandaneira, III in Maluku Tengah, Banda, Maluku Tenggara, at Kecil, Manyeuw, Hoat Sorbay, in Tanimbar at Tanimbar Selatan, Selaru, Wer Tamrian, Wer Maktian; in Seram Bagian in Maluku Barat Daya and in Kota Tual and many other communities experienced lesser shaking.
No tsunamis were observed or expected with these events. A moderate foreshock
hit the region yesterday and was reported in this summary as:
"The strongest earthquake near the geomagnetic equator in Indonesia today was an M 5.2
in the Banda Sea. EMSC reported this earthquake of M 5.2 in Banda Sea, Indonesia was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of Banda Sea, Indonesia in Dili, Timor.
BMG reported intensity III-IV in Timur, Alor, Nusa, Tengara, Maluku, Tengah Selatan, amont others.
This follows a relatively quiet period in Indonesia over the past week and probably
is the first salvo of enhanced seismicity in the area with the major geomagnetic
storm of yesterday and today (see above). The last earthquake of M>=5.2 in
the Banda Sea area was an M 5.8 on September 23, 2023. At the time this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.8 in the Banda Sea, Indonesia at a deep focus. NEIC reported it was felt in East Timor at Dili in Dili and Dare and in northern Territory, Australia with IV in Howard Springs, Katherine and II-III in Coonawarra, Darwin, Humpty Doo-MacMinns Lagoon.
This is the largest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter since an
M 5.9 on August 29, 2023, and an M 6.2 on May 24, 2023. A major M 7.6 hit near
today's epicenter on January 9, 2023. This may be an aftershock of that mainshock." (November 7, 2023, September 23, 2023)
The strongest earthquake within about 250 km of today's earthquake in Indonesia
with M>=7.1 occurred on January 9, 2023 with M 7.6. At the time this summary noted:
When a similar M 7.5-7.6 hit at deep focus near today's Indonesian epicenter
on January 27, 2006 this summary noted in this regard:
"A major earthquake initially given magnitude of M 7.7 occurred today
in the Banda Sea region of Southern Indonesia south of Ambon, Moluccas.
Data on the NEIC website indicates that this event was felt with maximum
intensity V at Dili, East Timore and with intensity III in northwestern
Australia at Darwin, Howard Springs and Humpty Doo-MacMinns Lagoon and with
lesser intensity at Jabiru and Palmerston, Australia nearly 900 km to the
southeast of this epicenter. Press accounts on Associated Press indicate
that the earthquake was felt strongly on Ambon, the capital of Maluku
province. Residenst of Ambon ran out of homes to higher places in fear of
a tsunami. The quake was also felt with lesser intensity at Bali, Sorong
and in south Sulawesi province, Indonesia. Residents also fled their homes
about 440 km to the south in East Timor. There were no immediate reports
of serious damage or casualties. The earthquake hit at a depth of about
350 km and there is no danger of a major tsunami from earthquakes which
occur at such depths and do not propagate to the surface. Some local
landslide tsunamis may occur, but in this case the shaking on the surface
was probably not sufficient to trigger these. Strong earthquakes of M 7.5-8.5
have hit the area in 1963, 1950, 1948, 1938, 1917-1918 and 1899. Like most of the other large
events in the past month, this epicenter is located at the Core-mantle
Shadow Zone Boundary (MSZB) from the strong M 7.4 which hit the South
Atlantic on Jan. 2, 2006." (January 9, 2023, November 8, 2023, July 14, 2025)
Today's earthquake is at 149 degrees from the current position of Hurricane
Melissa and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 28OCT2025 14:40:18 6.7S 130.0E MW=6.4 EMSC BANDA SEA
O: 28OCT2025 14:40:18 6.7S 130.0E MW=6.8 BMG TANIMBAR
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in South Island, New Zealand was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of South Island, New Zealand in Riverton, Southland.
GeoNet reported the following for this event:
Felt with weak intensity in the area south of Te Anau, South Island. 18 reports of felt intensity came from the area east and north of the epicenter including 18 with weak intensity.
This epicenter is at 100 degrees from the major earthquakes in Kamchatka and
may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 29OCT2025 07:20:32 47.0S 165.1E MB=5.4 GEONET SNARES ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND
O: 29OCT2025 07:20:27 47.1S 164.8E MB=5.0 EMSC OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.4 in the Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge was not felt in this remote area.
This epicenter is nearly antipodal to recent major activity in Kamchatka and
the northern Kurils and may have been promoted by energy from that region.
Like recent strong earthquakes in Western Turkey, this epicenter is at the
fourth node (90 degrees) from Hurricane Melissa and may have been promoted
by energy from that source.
O: 29OCT2025 06:16:45 47.2S 12.1W MB=5.4 EMSC SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
NEIC reported a series of earthquakes of M 3.5, 3.2 and 2.7 in Northern Kansas was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Northern Kansas with intensity IV in Kansas at Dorrance and Wilson; III in Holyrood, Sylvan Grove and Luray and II in Bunker Hill and Great Bend.
These epicenters are at 103 degrees from the Drake Passage M 7.8 of October 10
and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 29OCT2025 03:46:35 38.9N 98.5W ML=3.5 EMSC KANSAS
O: 29OCT2025 04:12:14 38.8N 98.5W ML=2.7 EMSC KANSAS
O: 29OCT2025 05:14:03 38.9N 98.5W ML=3.2 EMSC KANSAS
NEIC reported a series of light to moderate earthquakes with M up to 4.0 in Baja, California was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Baja, California in the epicentral area.
These epicenters area located at the sixth node from Kamchatka (60 degrees);
102 degrees from the Drake Passage abd 108 degrees from the Philippines and may have been promoted by energy from these sources.
O: 29OCT2025 03:28:50 31.5N 115.6W ML=4.0 EMSC BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
O: 29OCT2025 05:27:09 31.8N 116.1W ML=3.4 EMSC BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
O: 28OCT2025 11:50:56 32.3N 115.4W ML=2.3 EMSC BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
O: 28OCT2025 09:45:13 31.4N 115.7W ML=3.3 EMSC BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
O: 28OCT2025 10:16:17 31.4N 115.6W ML=3.2 EMSC BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
O: 28OCT2025 10:59:02 31.4N 115.6W ML=3.3 EMSC BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
O: 28OCT2025 21:11:31 31.4N 115.5W ML=3.1 EMSC BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
O: 29OCT2025 05:02:03 31.5N 115.6W ML=3.2 EMSC BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
O: 28OCT2025 08:28:14 31.5N 115.6W ML=3.9 EMSC BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
O: 29OCT2025 03:38:55 32.6N 115.7W ML=2.2 EMSC BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
O: 28OCT2025 08:56:25 32.9N 116.2W ML=2.2 EMSC SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.0 in Central Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central Alaska with intensity III in Denali National Park.
O: 28OCT2025 17:15:01 63.3N 151.2W ML=3.0 EMSC CENTRAL ALASKA
NEIC reported a series of earthquakes of M 2.2, 3.7, 2.7 and 2.5 in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming with III in Yellowstone and II in Gardiner and West Yellowstone, Montana.
The event of M 3.7 is the strongest recorded in the Yellowstone area within about
100 km of today's epicenter since a similar M 3.7 on January 29, 2025. The last event
in Yellowstone of larger magnitude was an M 3.9 on September 18, 2022 more than
three years ago. At the time this summary noted:
An unusually large M 3.9 was widely felt in the Yellowstone National Park area of Montana and Wyoming. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Yellowstone National Park and II-III in West Yellowstone and II in Gardniner, Montana. Lesser shaking was reported from Billings, Montana and Buffalo, Wyoming and Sandy, Utah.
... This is the strongest earthquake in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming since an M 4.4 on June 16, 2017 more than five years ago
and before that an M 4.8 on March 30, 2014. This activity is at 103 degrees
from the M 7.6 in New Guinea of September 10, 2022 and 101-103 degrees from
the M 7.0 in Luzon of July 27, 2022 and may have been promoted
by energy from those sources." (September 18, 2022)
Today's epicenter is at 105 degrees from the M 7.1 in Leyte, Philippines and
may have been promoted by energy from that source. It is also at the ninth node (40 degrees)
from the eye of Hurricane Melissa at the time of the earthquake and may have
been promoted by stresses associated with that storm. These stresses
from hurricane landfall often enhance seismicity in areas of volcanism
as they squeeze fluids into new fissures. Other volcanic zones at nodal
distances from Hurricane Melissa include, among other, the area off the coast
of Oregon where Axial Volcano is still expected to erupt shortly (7th node - 51-52 degrees)
and Iceland (6th node - 60 degrees). Watch these area in coming days for
signs of increased seismicity.
O: 28OCT2025 13:22:29 44.8N 110.9W ML=3.7 EMSC YELLOWSTONE NAT. PARK, WYOMING
O: 28OCT2025 13:00:43 44.8N 110.8W ML=2.7 EMSC YELLOWSTONE NAT. PARK, WYOMING
O: 28OCT2025 14:27:29 44.8N 110.8W ML=2.2 EMSC YELLOWSTONE NAT. PARK, WYOMING
O: 28OCT2025 15:11:06 44.8N 110.8W ML=2.5 EMSC YELLOWSTONE NAT. PARK, WYOMING
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.5 in Central California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central California with II in Hollister.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.5 in Mindanao, Central Philippines was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central Philippines at Canlaon.
EMSC reported two earthquakes of M 4.9 in western Turkey were felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Golcuk, Akhisar, Balikesir, Soma, Salihi, Kinik, Turgutlu,, Mustafakemalpasa, Gure, Manisa, among others.
These area aftershocks of the M 6.0 at this epicenter two days ago.
This activity is located at the fourth node (90 degrees) from Hurricane
Melissa and from Mindanao, Philippines and may have been promoted by energy related to those sources.
O: 28OCT2025 07:10:01 39.2N 28.3E MB=4.9 EMSC WESTERN TURKEY
O: 28OCT2025 07:54:14 39.2N 28.3E mb=4.9 EMSC WESTERN TURKEY
O: 28OCT2025 20:49:56 39.2N 28.1E ML=4.0 EMSC WESTERN TURKEY
TODAY'S MAP
Stippled green dots represent areas at nodal distances from the current position of the eye of Hurricane Melissa in the Caribbean near Jamaica as of October 28, 2025.
Stippled white lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.4 in Mindanao, Philippines of October 10, 2025.
Stippled lavender lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October 10, 2025.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
HURRICANE MELISSA
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR MELISSA 2025-10-29 00:00 UT 18.1N 76.1W 185 kts Jamaica
Hurricane Melissa continued today in the region of Jamaica with winds up to 185 kts (290 km/hr). It hit Jamaica and southern Cuba today causing much damage and loss of life. Entire villages were destroyed by this very powerful hurricane. The Dominican Republic and Haiti will be hit next around October 29-30. It could help promote moderate seismicity in that area at that time. A moderate to moderately strong earthquake is possible in the area at this time in the Caribbean area. Much of the area surrounding the Caribbean has been active in the past several days and this could continue for the next several days. The antipode is at 18S 105E - south of Sumatra and is not a highly seismic zone but minor enhancement is possible in the area south of Sumatra at this time.
This is the strongest tropical storm in the world during the year 2025.
TROPICAL STORM SONIA
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS SONIA 2025-10-29 00:00 UT 15.3N 125.6W 40 kts South of Baja California, Mexico
Tropical Storm Sonia continued today in the region south of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 40 kts. It is expected to track to the west and is unlikely to enhance regional seismicity at this time. The antipode at 15S 55E is in the Indian Ocean and could see enhanced seismicity at this time.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 28, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight at the time of occurrence and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1790 1617 1626 1630 C1.6 (October 28, 2025) 9.9E-04
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: minor storms October 29-30 active October 31. Solar M-flare chance: 5% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 19 28 14 16:00 6 91 122
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 24, 2025 at 17:47:02 UT (#251024A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
October 28, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
A strong aftershock of M 6.0 occurred today in the area of western Turkey south of Istanbul.
NEIC reported intensity VIII with damage in Sindirgi, Balikesir, Turkey with V in Mudanya, Bursa and IV in Izmir, Aydin, Bursa, Denizli, Istanbul, Tekirdag, Eskisehir, Manisa, Canakkale, Usak, Nigde, Ankara, Sakarya, Turkey; in Lesvos and the Dodecanese Islands, Greece and in Bulfaria as far as Sofia.
EMSC reported it was felt widely and strongly in western Turkey at Demirci, Akhisar, Borlu, Soma, Balikesir, Kepsut, Simav, Adala, Samli, Kinik, Saruhanli, Salihi, Kula, Susurluk, Ucpinar, Turgutlu, Emet, Bergama among others. It was felt with moderate intensity as far as 500 km in Bulgaria, and Ankara, Turkey, Romania, Cyprus, Albania, Syria, as well as in Vrilissia and Dhrama, Greece.
This is an aftershock of a strong M 6.1 of August 10, 2025 and effects
to local populations are likely to be similar to those of the August event. At the time this summary noted:
"A strong M 6.1 earthquake hit northwestern Turkey late on August 10, 2025.
NEIC reported maximum intensity VIII in Balikesir at Sindirgi and VI in Kepsut Turkey.
Intensity V was felt in Kayseri at Hacilar, Manisa at Manisa, Gordes, Turgutlu, in Izmir at Aliaga, Dikili, Seferihisar and in Kalloni, Lesvos Greece and Hacilar, Kayseri and Golcuk, Kocaeli with lesser shaking of IV in Istanbul, and Bulgaria among others.
A series of foreshocks including an M 3.5 occurred about 1.5 hours before
the mainshock with a strong solar flare which began about 15:00 UT but several
smaller foreshocks in the M 1.5-2.5 range preceded these.
The strongest aftershock to date was an M 4.4.
Initial reports from the Press indicated at least one person was killed, 29 injured
and causing tens of buildings to collapse or sustain major damage which included
major damage to some mosques. The earthquake
occurred northwestern Turkey in the province of Balikesir. The epicenter was
about 200 km south of Istanbul, Turkey near the town of Sindirgi. Aftershocks were
continuing at this writing.
The last earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter in Turkey with M>=6.1
occurred on April 23, 2025 about 200 km north of today's epicenter as an M 6.2.
No earthquakes with M>=6.1 have occurred within about 150 km of today's
epicenter in the past 35 years. The last earthquake in the 150 km range with
M>=5.5 occurred as an M 5.6 on January 22, 2020. At the time this summary
noted:
"The strongest of this activity was in western Turkey where an M 5.6 occurred within
several hour of local solar midnight and was probably enhanced by tidal stresses
associated with the upcoming new moon. Much of the strongest aftershock activity
concentrated near local midnight including an M 4.4 and events of M 4.1 amd 4.0.
NEIC reported this earthquake of M 5.6 in Western Turkey was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of Western Turkey in Soma (IV); IV in Manisa, Balikesir, Salihli, Odemis and Izmir (IV) and II-III in Akhisar, Menemen, Burhaniye and Edremit, Balikesir, Turkey.
The M 5.6 is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter since
an M 6.3 on June 12, 2017 and prior to that an M 5.9 on May 19, 2011. A similar
M 5.6-5.7 event occurred about 200 km northeast of today's epicenter in the area
near Istanbul, Turkey on September 26, 2019." (January 22, 2020, August 10, 2025)
Today's epicenter in Turkey is located at the fourth node (90 degrees) from Leyte, Philippines and from
Hurricane Melissa and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 27OCT2025 19:48:28 39.2N 28.2E MB=6.0 EMSC WESTERN TURKEY
Earthquakes of M 6.5, 6.0, 5.4 and many aftershocks continued today in the
area east of Guadeloupe, Leeward Islands, Caribbean today. Initial reports
indicate some damage to local structures and some injuries accompanied the M 6.5 mainshock. This was discussed in
the previous issue of this summary as:
"An M 6.5 and an aftershock of M 6.0 on October 27 in the area
of Guadeloupe, Leeward Islands in the Caribbean. This is near the antipode
of the Timor, Indonesia event and may have been promoted by energy from that source. NEIC reported immediate felt effects from this
of intensity IV in Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia and Dominica with III in Puerto
Rico, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Netherlands Antilles, Anguilla, among others.
This is the strongest earthquake recorded near Guadeloupe within about 200 km
of this epicenter in at least 35 years. The last earthquake of M>=6 in this area
occurred on March 19, 2016 and May 16, 2014 with M 6.0. An M 6.5 occurred about
250 km southeast of today's epicenter on February 18, 2014. At the time this
summary noted:
"NEIC reported the M 6.5-6.7 east of the Windward Islands and Martinique today
was widely felt in the Windward Islands. Intensity V was reported from Biabou,
Saint Vincent and The Grenadines with intensity IV in Martinique at Le Lamentin;
in Barbados at Bulkeley and in Saint Lucia at Laborie and Anse-la-Raye.
Lesser shaking of intensity II-III was reported from Saint Lucia at Canaries, Cap Estate, Gros Island;
from Saint Vincent and the Grenadines at Dovers, Hamilton, Chateaubelair and Kingstown;
from Dominica at Portsmouth, Saint Joseph and Saint PAtrick; from Barbados
at Oistins, Holetown, Bathsheba, Crab Hills, Bridgetown; from Grenada at
Hillsborough and Saint George; from Petit-Bourg, Guadeloupe; from Martinique
at Fort-de-France, Saint-Joseph, Sainte-Luce and Saint-Pierre and from Cole Bay, Netherlands Antilles.
There were no immediate reports of damage or casualties from this earthquake.
The immediate trigger for this event may be a proton storm which began
minutes before this earthquake initiated according to SWPC data. This data
shows this proton flux storm began about 0910-0920 UT about 10 minutes
before the Barbados earthquake. Resulting changes in the Hp geomagnetic field
may have helped promote the earthquake. This is the second strong earthquake to hit the Caribbean this year following
an M 6.5 in Puerto Rico on January 13, 2014. This summary has argued that
this is the beginning of an active period for the region which may end in
a great quake on the Puerto Rico trench. Such a quake and the resulting
tsunami are overdue for the region. Seismic waves (S-types) from the M 6.5
probably triggered the M 5.6 in New Britain and the M 4.7-5.2 South of the
Kermadec Islands which occurred 45 minutes and 32 minutes later respectively.
Seismic waves from the Caribbean were in the epicentral areas when those earthquakes initiated.
...
This is the strongest earthquake within 200 km of this event in at least
the past 25 years. The last earthquakes of larger magnitude in the region
within 300 km of this epicenter occurred on Christmas day 38 years ago - December
25, 1969. Similar strong events hit the region in May 1946 (M 7.0); March, 1953 (M 7.3)
and January 8, 1959 (M 6.6). The quake of 1946 is particularly interesting
as it preceded by several months the last great quake in the northern Caribbean
which triggered a destructive tsunami. A deep focus earthquake hit about 300 km
west of today's epicenter on November 29, 2007 with M 7.4.
...
The regions of northern Colombia and the eastern Caribbean saw moderately
strong to strong earthquakes today. The largest of these was an M 6.5 east
of Martinique in the Windward Islands. This event followed an M 5.7 in Northern
Colombia earlier in the day. The quake in Colombia is near the exact antipode
of the strong volcanic eruption of Kelut volcano in Java which has been
ongoing since February 12 and was likely triggered by antipodal energy concentration
from that eruption. The M 6.5 east of the Caribbean is near the antipode
of Timor and Sumbawa Islands in Indonesia including an M 5.5 in Sulawesi, Indonesia
earlier in the day." (February 18, 2014)
It was probably promoted by the major category 4-5 Hurricane Melissa currently
due west of this epicenter in the Caribbean. This possibility had been suggested
in this summary in previous issues as:
"Tropical Storm Melissa continued today in the region of the central Caribbean with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track to the north becoming a Hurricane as it arrives in the area south of Jamaica the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. It could help promoted moderate seismicity in the area at that time including the Windward and Leeward Islands of the eastern Caribbean. It could also help promoted enhanced seismicity in portions of Central America like Costa Rica and Nicaragua at this time due to its slow movement. The antipode is at 14S 105E - south of Sumatra and is not a highly seismic zone but minor enhancement is possible in the area south of Sumatra at this time." (October 22-25, 2025)
This epicenter in Guadeloupe is located at 103 degrees from the major earthquakes
in Kamchatka and was probably a far-field aftershock from that source as
expected in previous issues of this summary:
"P- and S- shadow zone edge and node 7 (101-110 degrees)
Kamchatka to Panama, Colombia, Guadeloupe, South Indian Ocean, So. New Zealand, South of Australia, Macquarie Is, Leeward Is, Caribbean, East Pacific Rise, Galapagos, " (September 18, 2025)
Strong earthquakes in northern South America and the Caribbean have consistently
occurred at 103 degrees from Kamchatka since the great earthquakes in that
area of M 8.8 and M 7.8. For example when earthquakes of M 6.3 and 6.5 hit northern Venezuela
on September this summary noted:
"This epicenter (in Venezuela) is at 103.6 degrees from the M 7.8 in Kamchatka of September 18
and had been expected in this summary to be active at this time
and
Today's epicenter (M 5.5-5.7 in Colombia) is at 103.5 degrees from the epicenter of the M 7.5 in Kamchatka" (September 25, 2025, October 27, 2025)
Today's events in the region of Guadeloupe follow a series of light to moderate
earthquakes which began with the formation of Hurricane Melissa in the central
Caribbean. These have generally followed the subduction zone which passes east of the
Leeward and Windward Islands, then turns west and follows along the Puerto
Rico Trench north of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti then south
between Haiti and Cuba and eventually terminates near Jaimaica. The precursory
earthquake have generally been light to moderate but several significant
events did occur on this subduction zone in the past week, including an M 5.0
in the Dominican Republic on October 20, 2025. Other notable earthquake in the past week in this zone
occurred in Venezuela with an M 4.8 in northern Venezuela and an M 4.8 in Trinidad
and Tobago on October 24; and had been noted in this summary for example on
October 22 as:
"Several other earthquake in the eastern Caribbean today may also have been
promoted by energy from Tropical Storm Melissa. These were located in the
Leeward Islands as an M 3.5 in St. Martin and an M 4.2 in Antigua and Barbuda.
The combination of stresses with the new moon and Tropical Storm Melissa
may have helped trigger this complex of earthquakes in the Caribbean today.
These epicenters are located at 100-102 degrees from Kamchatka and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 21OCT2025 01:09:12 18.0N 62.4W ML=3.5 EMSC ST. MARTIN REGION, LEEWARD ISL.
O: 21OCT2025 03:36:58 17.6N 61.7W ML=4.2 EMSC ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA REGION " (October 22, 2025)
From the point at which the current position of the eye of Hurricane Melissa (category 5 at 175 mph winds)
to the epicenter of the M 6.5 east of Guadeloupe today the Caribbean subduction
zone is continuous. This leads to a new hypothesis about triggering of seismicity
by strong ocean storms. This summary suggests that an entire subduction zone
may see enhanced seismicity when a strong storm sits over the terminus of
the subduction zone for a period of time. This could send waves of stress
along the zone triggering earthquakes where the stresses are near rupture.
This would be consistent with triggering of the M 6.5 in Guadeloupe from
Hurricane Melissa.
O: 27OCT2025 12:38:40 16.5N 59.5W MW=6.5 NEIC GUADELOUPE, LEEWARD ISLANDS
O: 27OCT2025 12:54:59 16.6N 59.6W MW=6.0 NEIC GUADELOUPE, LEEWARD ISLANDS
O: 27OCT2025 13:26:51 16.5N 59.7W MW=5.4 NEIC GUADELOUPE, LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.5 north of Washington, D.C in Maryland was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of north of Washington, D.C in Maryland with IV in Columbia; III in Clarksville, Laurel, Silver Spring, II in Laurel, and Fulton.
This is the strongest earthquake recorded in the area of southern Maryland
within about 100 km of this epicenter since an M 2.6 on June 25, 2021 and an M 2.8
on September 15, 2019. The largest earthquake in this area in the past
35 years was an M 4.1 on November 30, 2017. At the time this summary noted:
"The Delaware earthquake of M 4.1-4.5 was reported felt with maximum intensity V in Clayton, Delaware; Newport New Jersey, and IV in Delaware at Dover, Magnolia, Camden Wyoming, Marydel, in Maryland at Galena, Sudlersville, and in general within about 50 km of the epicenter. It was felt with intensity II-III throughout much of the central eastern coast of the U.S. including in New Jersey, Delaware, Pennyslvania, Virginia, New York, Washington D.C, Connecticut, West Virginia, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, North Carolina, Vermont, Ohio, Kentucky, South Carolina, Illinois, Florida, Mississippi, Missouri, and Maryland,
The earthquake in Delaware is one of the strongest recorded in that State.
Earthquake in this area are often followed within days by a strong quake in
southern or central California, such as occurred in the Northridge quake
of M 6.7 on January 17, 1994 (preceded by an M 4.6 in southern Pennsylvania
on January 16, 1994) and the Morgan Hill quake of April 24, 1984 preceded
by an M 4.4 in Pennsylvania on April 23, 1984. The events in August 2011 were
later found to occur at the time of one of the strongest cosmic ray events known,
possibly associated with a gravity wave and other effects which may have triggered
this series. A similar relation may be found with today's events, but these
area usually not announced until extensive data anaylsis. As this list includes
the largest events in the Delaware area in the past 50 years and some of the
strongest earthquakes in Central and southern California in the same period,
it may be significant. This correlation is strongest with moderate starting
quakes in the region of Delaware. The area of southern California near Northridge
is currently at the 23-year cycles of large quakes in the area. A moderate
earthquake in the region west of Los Angeles and north to San Francisco is
considered possible in the next four days. At the least, residents should
check their earthquake preparedness kits to see if they are ready for a
moderate quake at this time." (November 30, 2017)
This epicenter is located at 100 degrees from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage
of October 10, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
Effects from Hurricane Melissa 20 degrees to the south may also have helped
promote this unusual event in Maryland.
Hurricane Melissa, the strongest ocean storm in the world this year with winds up to 200 mph, will make slopefall late in October, 2025 and could also add
stress to faults along the Pacific-North American western boundaries, further
increasing the possibility of a moderate quake at that time. Hurricane Melissa is expected
to cause extensive damage in Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas and Bermuda before moving
into the Atlantic Ocean. At this time it is stationary near Jamaica. A nor-easter
is also considered a possibility at that time. Nor'easters on the East
Coast of the U.S. may help promote enhanced seismicity in the western U.S.
as has been seen on numerous previous occasions.
O: 27OCT2025 21:17:00 39.2N 76.8W MW=2.5 NEIC RIVERSIDE, MARYLAND
A series of volcanic eruptions are occurring in the Philippine Islands following
the major earthquakes in that area in October and September, 2025. The lates
of these occurred today in Taal Volcano in central Luzon near Manila where
an eruption sent ash up to a mile in the air. Air flying advisories are in
effect for the region with flights forbidden until the ash cloud disperses.
A moderate earthquake of M 5.3 shook regions of New Britain today but was not reported felt to any agency.
This earthquake may have been promoted by SFE associated with Solar Flare 1750 (B6.8)
as it occurred towards the end of this flare. Flare data for this event from
SWPC follow:
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1750 1414 1421 1431 B6.8 (October 27, 2025) 6.8E-04
New Britain M 5.3 14:29 UT
O: 27OCT2025 14:29:33 6.2S 151.8E MB=5.3 EMSC NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
BMG reported an earthquake of M 5.5 in Minahasa, Sulawesi, Indonesia was felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of Kab Toli Toli at Baolan; Buol at Momunu, Lakea, Bokat, Bunobogu, Paleleh, Biau, Bukal, Gadung, Karamat, Paleleh Ba; in Parigi Moutong at Taopa, Pahuwato at Lemito, Taluditi, Popayato and in Gorontalo at Tolinggula and Biau. It was also felt with intensity II in Kab. Bolaang Mongondow, Donggala, Tojo Una Una, Boalemo, Bone Bolango, Pahuwato among others.
O: 28OCT2025 01:31:18 1.4N 121.9E MW=5.1 EMSC MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
O: 28OCT2025 01:31:18 1.4N 121.9E MW=5.5 BMG MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
BMG reported an earthquake of M 5.3 in Northern Sumatra was felt with intensity up to VI in the area(s) of Geumpang, Pidie, Aceh; V in Kab. Pidie at Mane, Geumpang, Tangse and III in Kab. Aceh, Bireuen, Barat, Besar, Nagan Raya, and II in Selatan, Timur, Tengah, Barat, Besar among others.
O: 27OCT2025 23:35:13 4.9N 96.0E MB=5.1 EMSC NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
O: 27OCT2025 23:35:13 4.9N 96.0E MB=5.3 BMG NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
TODAY'S MAP
Stippled green dots represent areas at nodal distances from the current position of the eye of Hurricane Melissa in the Caribbean near Jamaica as of October 28, 2025.
Stippled white lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.4 in Mindanao, Philippines of October 10, 2025.
Stippled lavender lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October 10, 2025.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
HURRICANE MELISSA
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR MELISSA 2025-10-28 00:00 UT 17.5N 78.1W 175 kts South of Jamaica
Hurricane Melissa continued today in the region of south of Jamaica with winds up to 175 kts. It is expected to track to the north and will hit Jamaica, Cuba and the Dominican Republic and Haiti around October 28-30. It could help promote moderate seismicity in that area at that time. A moderate to moderately strong earthquake is possible in the area at this time in the Caribbean area. Much of the area surrounding the Caribbean has been active in the past several days and this could continue for the next several days. The antipode is at 17S 102E - south of Sumatra and is not a highly seismic zone but minor enhancement is possible in the area south of Sumatra at this time.
This is the strongest tropical storm in the world during the year 2025.
TROPICAL STORM SONIA
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS SONIA 2025-10-28 00:00 UT 14.7N 122.4W 50 kts South of Baja California, Mexico
Tropical Storm Sonia continued today in the region south of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track to the west and is unlikely to enhance regional seismicity at this time. The antipode at 15S 58E is in the Indian Ocean and could see enhanced seismicity at this time.
TROPICAL CYCLONE MONTHA (03B)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC MONTHA 2025-10-28 00:00 UT 15.2N 82.6E 55 kts Southeast of India
Tropical Cyclone Montha (03B) continued today in the region southeast of Peninsular India winds up to 55 kts. It is expected to track to the west and could see Regional seismicity enhanced in the area. The antipode is at 15S 98W is in the South Pacific in a seismic quiet zone west of Peru.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 27, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight at the time of occurrence and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1710 0130 0141 0151 C1.0 (October 27, 2025) 1.1E-03
Nevada M 2.2 01:34 UT
Xizang-India M 3.9 01:45 UT
1720 0207 0212 0218 B9.2 (October 27, 2025) 6.2E-04
Portugal M 2.0 02:07 UT
1730 1003 1021 1035 C1.7 (October 27, 2025) 2.6E-03
Arkansas M 2.3 10:09 UT
Java M 4.7 10:19 UT
San Pedro CA M 2.6 10:56 UT
1750 1414 1421 1431 B6.8 (October 27, 2025) 6.8E-04
New Britain M 5.3 14:29 UT
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: minor storms October 28-30. Solar M-flare chance: 5% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 6 2 4 23:00 3 96 121
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 24, 2025 at 17:47:02 UT (#251024A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
October 27, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.2-6.3 in the Timor region of Indonesia.
BMG reported it was felt in Kab. Kupang at Amfoang te, Semau, Kupang, Sulamu, Amarasi, Fatuleu, Takari, Nekamese, Amabi, Taebenu, with III in Kab. Timor, Belu, alor, Flores, Sikka, Lembata, Rote Ndao, Malaka, Kupang, Sikka, Ende, Ngada, and II in Nagekeo, Sabu Raijua and Kepulauan Selayar.
NEIC reported intensity IV in Timur at Kipang Nusa and II in Dili with II in Northern Territory, Australia at Coonawarra and Darwin.
It occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by tidal and/or
geomagnetic stresses which maximize near this hour.
This epicenter is at 110 degrees from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October 10 and may have been
promoted energy from that source. It is also near the antipode of Hurricane
Melissa, a major hurricane in the Caribbean currently south of Jamaica and
may have been promoted by energy from that source.
The last earthquake Timor, Indonesia within about 200 km of this epicenter
with M>=6.3 occurred as an M 6.3 on November 4, 2015. At the time this summary noted:
"A strong geomagnetic storm hit today with AP levels up to 32 in equatorial and
mid-latitude zones. This is the strongest geomagnetic storm since October 7 when
the AP level reached 77. Seismic activity about 10-15 degrees either side of the
geomagnetic equator will likely be affected by this storm. This normally occurs
as the storm hits and/or about 4-6 days following the end of the storm.
...
A strong earthquake of M 6.3-6.6 in East Timor, Indonesia was preceded by an M 5.7
foreshock. The foreshock was reported by NEIC to have been felt in Dili, East Timor. The M 6.3-6.6
mainshock was reported felt with intensity V in Metinaro, Dili and in Dili, Indonesia. EMSC
reported moderate shaking in Dili, Jera, Pante Macassar, Kota Garut, Indonesia.
BMG reported it was felt with intensity IV-V in Alor and Atambua, Timor, Indonesia.
This epicenter is about 15 degrees south of the local geomagnetic equator and
occurred at the height of the strongest geomagnetic storm in about a month. It
is likely that this storm promoted this storm Indonesian earthquake. The immediate
trigger for this event was probably a strong M2.0 solar flare. This flare (unnumbered at this time)
maximized around 0323 UT within about 10 minutes of this earthquake. The quake
itself at 8S 125E occurred within minutes of local solar noon, a maximum time
for solar flare effects. In fact the epicenter was within a few degrees of the
exact sub-solar point when the quake occurred. The subsolar point is the point
on the earth that is exactly beneath the sun. At this time and point in the year,
the sub-solar point is about 10S 130E but was at 10S 126E at the time of the
solar flare maximum. This is a remarkable coincidence and a clear indication
that this earthquake was triggered by this solar flare." (November 4, 2015)
Earthquakes in the general region of Timor are most likely to see increased
magnitudes in the time between late October and early November. Most recently
strong earthquakes in the area in this time frame occurred on October 24, 2017; November 4, 2015; November 11, 2004 (M 7.4) and November 8, 1998 (M 6.4).
This epicenter in Timor is at 110 degrees from the Drake Passage and near
the fifth node (72 degrees) from the major earthquakes in Kamchatka and
was probably promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 26OCT2025 17:04:26 9.0S 123.9E MW=6.2 EMSC TIMOR REGION, INDONESIA
O: 26OCT2025 17:04:26 9.1S 124.0E MW=6.3 BMG TIMOR REGION, INDONESIA
The event in Timor was followed later by an M 6.5 and an aftershock of M 6.0 on October 27 in the area
of Guadeloupe, Leeward Islands in the Caribbean. This is near the antipode
of the Timor, Indonesia event and may have been promoted by energy from that source. NEIC reported immediate felt effects from this
of intensity IV in Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia and Dominica with III in Puerto
Rico, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Netherlands Antilles, Anguilla, among others.
This is the strongest earthquake recorded near Guadeloupe within about 200 km
of this epicenter in at least 35 years. The last earthquake of M>=6 in this area
occurred on March 19, 2016 and May 16, 2014 with M 6.0. An M 6.5 occurred about
250 km southeast of today's epicenter on February 18, 2014. At the time this
summary noted:
"NEIC reported the M 6.5-6.7 east of the Windward Islands and Martinique today
was widely felt in the Windward Islands. Intensity V was reported from Biabou,
Saint Vincent and The Grenadines with intensity IV in Martinique at Le Lamentin;
in Barbados at Bulkeley and in Saint Lucia at Laborie and Anse-la-Raye.
Lesser shaking of intensity II-III was reported from Saint Lucia at Canaries, Cap Estate, Gros Island;
from Saint Vincent and the Grenadines at Dovers, Hamilton, Chateaubelair and Kingstown;
from Dominica at Portsmouth, Saint Joseph and Saint PAtrick; from Barbados
at Oistins, Holetown, Bathsheba, Crab Hills, Bridgetown; from Grenada at
Hillsborough and Saint George; from Petit-Bourg, Guadeloupe; from Martinique
at Fort-de-France, Saint-Joseph, Sainte-Luce and Saint-Pierre and from Cole Bay, Netherlands Antilles.
There were no immediate reports of damage or casualties from this earthquake.
The immediate trigger for this event may be a proton storm which began
minutes before this earthquake initiated according to SWPC data. This data
shows this proton flux storm began about 0910-0920 UT about 10 minutes
before the Barbados earthquake. Resulting changes in the Hp geomagnetic field
may have helped promote the earthquake. This is the second strong earthquake to hit the Caribbean this year following
an M 6.5 in Puerto Rico on January 13, 2014. This summary has argued that
this is the beginning of an active period for the region which may end in
a great quake on the Puerto Rico trench. Such a quake and the resulting
tsunami are overdue for the region. Seismic waves (S-types) from the M 6.5
probably triggered the M 5.6 in New Britain and the M 4.7-5.2 South of the
Kermadec Islands which occurred 45 minutes and 32 minutes later respectively.
Seismic waves from the Caribbean were in the epicentral areas when those earthquakes initiated.
...
This is the strongest earthquake within 200 km of this event in at least
the past 25 years. The last earthquakes of larger magnitude in the region
within 300 km of this epicenter occurred on Christmas day 38 years ago - December
25, 1969. Similar strong events hit the region in May 1946 (M 7.0); March, 1953 (M 7.3)
and January 8, 1959 (M 6.6). The quake of 1946 is particularly interesting
as it preceded by several months the last great quake in the northern Caribbean
which triggered a destructive tsunami. A deep focus earthquake hit about 300 km
west of today's epicenter on November 29, 2007 with M 7.4.
...
The regions of northern Colombia and the eastern Caribbean saw moderately
strong to strong earthquakes today. The largest of these was an M 6.5 east
of Martinique in the Windward Islands. This event followed an M 5.7 in Northern
Colombia earlier in the day. The quake in Colombia is near the exact antipode
of the strong volcanic eruption of Kelut volcano in Java which has been
ongoing since February 12 and was likely triggered by antipodal energy concentration
from that eruption. The M 6.5 east of the Caribbean is near the antipode
of Timor and Sumbawa Islands in Indonesia including an M 5.5 in Sulawesi, Indonesia
earlier in the day." (February 18, 2014)
It was probably promoted by the major category 4-5 Hurricane Melissa currently
due west of this epicenter in the Caribbean. This possibility had been suggested
in this summary in previous issues as:
"Tropical Storm Melissa continued today in the region of the central Caribbean with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track to the north becoming a Hurricane as it arrives in the area south of Jamaica the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. It could help promoted moderate seismicity in the area at that time including the Windward and Leeward Islands of the eastern Caribbean. It could also help promoted enhanced seismicity in portions of Central America like Costa Rica and Nicaragua at this time due to its slow movement. The antipode is at 14S 105E - south of Sumatra and is not a highly seismic zone but minor enhancement is possible in the area south of Sumatra at this time." (October 22-25, 2025)
This epicenter in Guadeloupe is located at 103 degrees from the major earthquakes
in Kamchatka and was probably a far-field aftershock from that source as
expected in previous issues of this summary:
"P- and S- shadow zone edge and node 7 (101-110 degrees)
Kamchatka to Panama, Colombia, Guadeloupe, South Indian Ocean, So. New Zealand, South of Australia, Macquarie Is, Leeward Is, Caribbean, East Pacific Rise, Galapagos, " (September 18, 2025)
Strong earthquakes in northern South America and the Caribbean have consistently
occurred at 103 degrees from Kamchatka since the great earthquakes in that
area of M 8.8 and M 7.8. For example when earthquakes of M 6.3 and 6.5 hit northern Venezuela
on September this summary noted:
"This epicenter (in Venezuela) is at 103.6 degrees from the M 7.8 in Kamchatka of September 18
and had been expected in this summary to be active at this time
and
Today's epicenter (M 5.5-5.7 in Colombia) is at 103.5 degrees from the epicenter of the M 7.5 in Kamchatka" (September 25, 2025)
O: 27OCT2025 12:38:40 16.5N 59.5W MW=6.5 NEIC GUADELOUPE, LEEWARD ISLANDS
O: 27OCT2025 12:54:59 16.6N 59.6W MW=6.0 NEIC GUADELOUPE, LEEWARD ISLANDS
O: 27OCT2025 13:26:51 16.5N 59.7W MW=5.4 NEIC GUADELOUPE, LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.9 in Southern California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern California with III in Calexico.
It was preceded by an M 3.5 earlier in the day.
O: 26OCT2025 07:55:11 32.4N 116.1W ML=3.5 EMSC BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
O: 27OCT2025 03:50:51 32.4N 115.3W ML=2.0 EMSC BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
O: 27OCT2025 00:41:23 32.6N 115.7W ML=2.8 EMSC BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
O: 27OCT2025 00:41:23 32.6N 115.7W ML=2.9 NEIC BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.8 in Santa Paula, California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Santa Paula, California in Santa Clarita and Ventura, California.
O: 26OCT2025 23:28:09 34.4N 119.1W ML=2.6 EMSC SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 26OCT2025 23:28:09 34.4N 119.1W ML=2.8 NEIC SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.5 in Northern California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Northern California with III in Garberville, Zenia, Myers Flat and Piercy and II in Redway.
O: 26OCT2025 21:06:34 40.0N 123.7W MW=3.5 EMSC NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.5 in Santiago, Chile was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Santiago, Chile in Santiago and Puente Alto.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.5 in Northern California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Northern California in San Jose.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.8-2.9 in the San Francisco Bay, California area was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the San Francisco Bay, California area with intensity III in Berkeley and Rodeo and II in Richmond, El Sobrante, Benicia, Hercules, Port Costa, Albany and Walnut Creek.
EMSC reported it was felt with moderate intensity in Central California at Acalanes Ridge, Pacheco, Vine Hill, Lafayette, El Sobrante, Pleasant Hill, Saranap, Piedmont, Alameda and Parkway.
O: 26OCT2025 14:29:12 37.9N 122.2W ML=2.9 NEIC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
O: 26OCT2025 14:29:12 37.9N 122.2W ML=2.8 EMSC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
O: 26OCT2025 14:30:30 37.9N 122.2W MD=2.4 EMSC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.7 in Tokyo, Japan was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Tokyo, Japan with IV in Tokyo, III in Ichikawa, Chiba; Soka, Saitama, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Iwaki, Fukushima, Funabashi, Chiba and in In Kanagawa Prefecture at Kawasaki and Yokosuka.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Japan at Kamagaya, Urayasu, Ichikawa-minami, Tokyo, Kawaguchi, Koenji.
O: 26OCT2025 13:34:54 35.7N 140.2E MB=4.7 EMSC NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU,
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in North Island, New Zealand was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of North Island, New Zealand with IV in Hawke's Bay at Napier and Hastings.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Napier. GeoNet reported the following parameters for
this earthquake:
O: 26OCT2025 12:08:40 39.6S 176.9E MB=4.6 GEONET Felt with moderate to strong intensity in the area east of Wellington, New Zealand and in Hawke's Bay. 1961 reports of felt events were made of which 496 reported weak and 1009 light intensity with 428 reports of moderate shaking and 25 with strong and 0 severe and 2 with extreme intensity came from the area.
O: 26OCT2025 12:08:39 39.6S 176.9E MW=4.2 EMSC NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
TODAY'S MAP
Stippled white lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.4 in Mindanao, Philippines of October 10, 2025.
Stippled lavender lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October 10, 2025.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
HURRICANE MELISSA
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR MELISSA 2025-10-27 00:00 UT 16.4N 78.0W 160 kts South of Jamaica
Hurricane Melissa continued today in the region of south of Jamaica with winds up to 160 kts. It is expected to track to the north and will hit Jamaica, Cuba and the Dominican Republic and Haiti around October 27-30. It could help promote moderate seismicity in that area at that time. A moderate to moderately strong earthquake is possible in the area at this time. Much of the area surrounding the Caribbean has been active in the past several days and this could continue for the next several days. The antipode is at 16S 102E - south of Sumatra and is not a highly seismic zone but minor enhancement is possible in the area south of Sumatra at this time.
TROPICAL STORM SONIA
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS SONIA 2025-10-27 00:00 UT 14.1N 120.9W 50 kts South of Baja California, Mexico
Tropical Storm Sonia continued today in the region south of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track to the west and is unlikely to enhance regional seismicity at this time. The antipode at 14S 60E is in the Indian Ocean and could see enhanced seismicity at this time.
TROPICAL CYCLONE MONTHA (03B)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC MONTHA 2025-10-27 00:00 UT 12.7N 84.3E 50 kts Southeast of India
Tropical Cyclone Montha (03B) continued today in the region southeast of Peninsular India winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track to the west and could see Regional seismicity enhanced in the area. The antipode is at 13S 96W is in the South Pacific in a seismic quiet zone west of Peru.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 26, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight at the time of occurrence and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1660 0004 0013 0018 C1.2 (October 26, 2025) 8.8E-04
Mindanao M 5.0 00:25 UT
1670 0124 0134 0142 C1.4 (October 26, 2025) 1.4E-03
1680 0522 0529 0534 B9.4 (October 26, 2025) 6.5E-04
Ethiopia M 4.9 05:24 UT
1700 2137 2144 2147 B7.9 (October 26, 2025) 4.2E-04
Myanmar M 4.2 21:53 UT
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: Active October 27 minor storms October 28-29. Solar M-flare chance: 5% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 4 1 4 08:00 2 92 124
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 24, 2025 at 17:47:02 UT (#251024A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
October 26, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.0 in the Santa Cruz Islands near Lata, Solomon Islands. NEIC
did not report that it was felt. No damage or tsunami was expected with this
earthquake. It occurred near local solar noon and may have been promoted by
tidal and/or geomagnetic stresses which maximize near this hour. It occurred
towards the end of the largest solar flare of the day - a C2.2 (#1650) and may have
been promoted by SFE from this flare. Data for this flare from SWPC follow:
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1650 2258 2310 2330 C2.2 (October 25, 2025) 1.6E-03 *
Santa Cruz Island M 6.0 23:28 UT
O: 25OCT2025 23:28:06 12.4S 166.5E MW=6.0 EMSC SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
O: 25OCT2025 10:41:36 13.1S 167.2E mb=4.5 EMSC VANUATU
An unusually large earthquake also occurred with M 5.4 in the southeast Indian Ridge.
It may have been felt in the epicentral area but this was not reported by NEIC.
This earthquake occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted
by tidal and/or geomagnetic stresses which maximize near this hour.
Today's earthquake in the Southeast Indian Ridge may have been promoted
by the fourth largest solar flare of the day as it occurred at the peak output of solar flare 1640 (B9.5).
Data from SWPC for this flare follow:
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1640 1621 1628 1634 B9.5 (October 25, 2025) 7.5E-04
Southeast Indian Ridge M 5.4 16:31 UT
This epicenter in the Indian Ridge is nearly antipodal to an M 3.0 which
occurred on October 20, 2025 in Ontario, Canada. Readers can make their
own determination of antipodality of these two epicenters.
O: 20OCT2025 00:46:55 46.5N 81.2W ML=3.0 EMSC ONTARIO, CANADA
O: 25OCT2025 16:31:14 45.2S 96.7E MW=5.4 EMSC SOUTHEAST INDIAN RIDGE
Another earthquake in an Ocean Ridge area which was antipodal to a recent
significant earthquake occurred today in the southern East Pacific Rise. This event
of M 4.9 is at the antipode of an M 6.0 in Hindu Kush, Afghanistan of August 31, 2025.
Readers may check the antipodality of these two events with the following data:
O: 31AUG2025 19:17:34 34.5N 70.7EW ML=6.0 EMSC AFGHANISTAN
O: 25OCT2025 15:18:22 34.8S 108.6W MB=4.9 EMSC SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
Enhanced seismicity also continued today in the area of Naples, Italy where an M 4.0
was recorded today. Today's activity was reported by EMSC to have been felt with strong intensity at Avellino, Santa Paolina, Monteforte, Grottaminarda, Cimitile, Sant'Anna, Spartimento, Salerno, Pomigliano d'Arco, Battipaglia, Arpino, Portici, Casoria, Casagiove, Frattamaggiore, Arzano, Secondigliano, Vicaria, San Lorenzo, Naples, Pendino, San Ferdinando, Arenela, Aversa, Chiaia, Sorrento, Casaluce, Pianura, Monteverde, Foggia among others and lightly in Bagnoli, Chiaiano, Italy.
In the previous issue of this summary the uptick in regional seismicity at this time had been noted as:
"NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.6-4.0 in Central Italy was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central Italy with intensity III near Naples and II in San Paolo Bel Sito, Campania.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Italy at Avellino, Castel San Giorgio, Capriglia, Nocera Superiore, Pagani, Cava De Tirreni, Angri, Salerno, Portici, Eboli, Naples, Montechiaro.
This appears related to the activity related to a possible eruption near
Mt. Vesuvius where signs of pre-eruption activity have been observed in the
past several days which included tremor and smoke.
Local news sources indicated widespread fear with this latest series of
minor tremors near Naples. The last earthquake within about 100 km of this
with M>=4 occurred as an M 4.4 on May 13, 2025. At the time this summary noted:
"An earthquake of M 4.4 shook the region of Naples, Italy today causing concern
of a coming volcanic event among residents. NEIC reported maximum intensity IV in Campania at Naples with III in Casoria and II in Sorrento, Italy.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in the Naples, Italy area at Pozzuoli with slight damage, Quarto, Naples, Casoria, Aversa, San Giorgio a Cremano, Frattamaggiore, Afragola, Trecase, Minturno, Belvedere Marittimo.
This is the strongest earthquake in the area of central Italy within about 150 km of this epicenter since an M 4.7 on March 28, 2023.
An M 4.2 hit the Naples area on March 13, 2025. At the time this summary noted:
"NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in Naples, Italy was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Naples, Italy with V in Pozzuoli, Campania; IV in Monte di Procida, Naples, Quarto, III in Bacoli, Orta di Atellaand San Giorgio a Cermano and in Penna Sant' Andrea Abruzzen, Italy.
EMSC reported this event at M 4.4 was felt strongly in Italy at Monte di Procida, Naples, Quarto, Afragola, Frattamaggiore, Pollena Trocchia, Pomigliano d'Arco, Acerra, Boscoreale, Nola.
This appears to be the strongest earthquake west of Naples in at least 40 years. The press
reported it was preceded by a loud earthquake noise. A lot of damage to facades
and ceilings was reported with the quake and in Bagnoli some people were trapped
in their houses. A ceiling collapse in Pozzuoli temporarily trapped a resident.
A series of aftershocks followed inflicting additional damage. An minor eruption of
Mount Vesuvius or Campi Flegrei is expected in the near future. The earthquake
occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by strong
tidal stresses associated with the full moon and eclipse of March 14." (March 13, 2025)
(May 13, 2025)
Today's epicenter is at the third node (120 degrees) from the Drake Passage and
at 102 degrees from the M 7.6 in Mindanao, Philippines and was likely
promoted by energy from those sources." (October 25, 2025)
O: 25OCT2025 19:49:19 41.0N 14.8E ML=4.0 EMSC SOUTHERN ITALY
O: 24OCT2025 12:40:58 41.0N 14.8E ML=3.6 EMSC SOUTHERN ITALY
O: 24OCT2025 12:40:58 41.0N 14.8E ML=4.0 NEIC SOUTHERN ITALY
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.9 in Ethiopia was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Ethiopia in Addis Ababa with III and in Nazret, Oromia with II.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Nazret, Addis Ababa and Sebeta, Ethiopia.
O: 26OCT2025 05:24:18 9.6N 40.0E MB=4.9 EMSC ETHIOPIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.7 in Eastern Honshu, Japan was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Eastern Honshu, Japan with III in Tokyo, Utsunomiya, Tocigi, Yokohama, Kawasaki, Atsugi, Zushi, Kanagawa, Nikko and Utsunomiya, Tochigi and II in Tachikawa, Tokyo and Komoro, Nagano, Japan.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Japan at Maebashi, Wako, Tokyo, Urayasu.
This earthquake occurred within minutes of local solar noon and may have
been promoted by tidal and/or geomagnetic stresses which maximize near this
hour.
O: 26OCT2025 03:04:55 36.5N 139.4E MB=4.7 EMSC EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.8 in Central California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central California in Big Sur.
This continues a series of light earthquakes in Central California over the
past several days which has included a series in northern and southern San
Francisco Bay. As these events area located near 103 degrees from the
recent earthquakes in Mindanao and Leyte of M>7 it is likely they are
being promoted by energy from those sources. A moderate to strong earthquake
in this area of California is still considered likely in the near future.
Such a quake is most likely near local solar noon or midnight in conjuction
with a strong M- or X-class solar flare.
O: 26OCT2025 02:21:34 35.8N 121.4W MD=2.7 EMSC OFFSHORE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.6 in Costa Rica was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Costa Rica with V in San Vito Puntarenas, and III in La Suiza, Cartago and in Chiriqui, Panama with IV in Potrerillos Abajo, Volcan, Cerro Punta, and III in Boquiet and Palmira.
EMSC reported moderate Shaking in Ciudad Cortes, Golfito, Costa Rica and in Bajo Boquete, Mague, Nuevo San Carlitos, Volcan, Panama.
This is an aftershock of the M 5.9 in Costa Rica last week.
O: 25OCT2025 23:45:16 9.0N 83.0W MB=4.6 EMSC PANAMA-COSTA RICA BORDER REGIO
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.6-3.9 in Western Nevada was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Western Nevada in the area of Tonopah with II in Tonopah and Glenbrook.
O: 25OCT2025 12:30:13 37.9N 117.2W ML=3.6 EMSC NEVADA
O: 25OCT2025 12:30:13 37.9N 117.2W ML=3.9 NEIC NEVADA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.1 in the Geysers of California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Geysers of California with III in Kelseyville, and II in Healdsburg, Potter Valley and Emeryville.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in the Central Andreanof Islands, Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Central Andreanof Islands, Alaska at Adak.
This was the strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today.
It occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by tidal or
geomagnetic stresses which maximize near this hour.
It may have been triggered by the second strongest solar flare of the day - a C1.6
(#1600) as it occurred at the start of that flare. Data on this flare from
SWPC follow:
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1600 1013 1023 1030 C1.6 (October 25, 2025) 1.2E-03
Andreanof Is. M 5.0 10:13 UT
O: 25OCT2025 10:13:06 51.5N 176.2W MB=5.0 EMSC ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS
An M 5.5 in the Kuril Islands may also have been promoted by a solar flare.
NEIC reported it may have been felt with intensity up to IV in the epicentral
area and occurred near local solar midnight. It was also closely associated
with the third most powerful solar flare of the day - a C1.3 (1610). This
earthquake occurred at the maximum output of the flare. Data of this flare from SWPC follow:
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1610 1101 1112 1128 C1.3 (October 25, 2025) 1.8E-03
Kuril Is. M 5.5 11:13 UT
O: 25OCT2025 11:13:07 50.0N 156.1E MW=5.5 EMSC KURIL ISLANDS
TODAY'S MAP
Stippled white lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.4 in Mindanao, Philippines of October 10, 2025.
Stippled lavender lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October 10, 2025.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
HURRICANE MELISSA
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR MELISSA 2025-10-26 00:00 UT 16.4N 76.9W 140 kts South of Jamaica
Hurricane Melissa continued today in the region of south of Jamaica with winds up to 140 kts. It is expected to track to the north and will hit Jamaica, Cuba and the Dominican Republic and Haiti around October 27-30. It could help promote moderate seismicity in that area at that time. A moderate to moderately strong earthquake is possible in the area at this time. Much of the area surrounding the Caribbean has been active in the past several days and this could continue for the next several days. The antipode is at 16S 103E - south of Sumatra and is not a highly seismic zone but minor enhancement is possible in the area south of Sumatra at this time.
TROPICAL STORM SONIA
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS SONIA 2025-10-26 00:00 UT 13.6N 119.8W 55 kts South of Baja California, Mexico
Tropical Storm Sonia continued today in the region south of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 55 kts. It is expected to track to the west and is unlikely to enhance regional seismicity at this time. The antipode at 14S 60E is in the Indian Ocean and could see enhanced seismicity at this time.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC 03B 2025-10-26 00:00 UT 11.3N 86.1E 45 kts Southeast of India
Tropical Cyclone 03B formed today in the region southeast of Peninsular India winds up to 45 kts. It is expected to track to the west and could see Regional seismicity enhanced in the area. The antipode is at 11S 94W is in the South Pacific in a seismic quiet zone west of Peru.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 25, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight at the time of occurrence and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1600 1013 1023 1030 C1.6 (October 25, 2025) 1.2E-03
Andreanof Is. M 5.0 10:13 UT
Vanuatu M 4.5 10:41 UT
1610 1101 1112 1128 C1.3 (October 25, 2025) 1.8E-03
Kuril Is. M 5.5 11:13 UT
1640 1621 1628 1634 B9.5 (October 25, 2025) 7.5E-04
Southeast Indian Ridge M 5.4 16:31 UT
1650 2258 2310 2330 C2.2 (October 25, 2025) 1.6E-03 *
Santa Cruz Island M 6.0 23:28 UT
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: Active October 27 minor storms October 28 unsettled October 26. Solar M-flare chance: 10% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 9 12 9 08:00 4 89 127
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 24, 2025 at 17:47:02 UT (#251024A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
October 25, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.8-5.9 in Hokkaido, northern
Japan. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II in Sibetsu, Hokkaido.
JMA reported intensity up to V (Japanese intensity scale maximizes at 7) in several areas of eastern Hokkaido and lesser intensity in eastern Hokkaido within about 150 km of the epicenter.
There was some minor damage reported but no major damage or tsunami with
this earthquake. Video of the shaking can be found on the web. The last earthquake
in Hokkaido within about 200 km of today's epicenter of M>=5.9 was an M
6.0 on June 21, 2025 and an M 5.9 on June 18, 2025. At the time this summary
noted:
"An earthquake of M 5.9-6.1 hit the region of Hokkaido, Japan today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity I in Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan. No tsunami was observed nor expected." (June 18, 2025)
The last earthquake of significantly larger magnitude in Hokkaido in this
area occurred as an M 6.7 on January 14, 2016. At the time this summary noted:
The earthquake in Hokkaido, Japan was reported with maximum intensity V in Aomori at Misawa and IV in Aomori, Hachinohe, in Hokkaido at Obihiro, Sapporo and Shizunai. Intensity II-III was
NEIC also reported felt activity from central Honshu Prefectures of Tokyo; Miyashiro, Saitama, Wakuya, Sendai, Miyagi, Yokohama, Kanagawa; Morioka, Iwate, Tsuchiura, Ibaraki, Otofuke, Kitahiroshima, Iwanai, Hakodate, Chitose, Asahikawa, Hokkaido; Fukushima; Narita, Chiba, Hokkaido, Japan.
NEIC also reported a second earthquake of M 6.7 about a minute earlier in
Hokkaido. NEIC reported this was felt with intensity V in Obihiro, Hokkaido and IV in Aomori, Misawa and Sapporo. It was also felt with intensity II-III up to 1000 km away in Settsu, Osaka and 750 km in Tokyo. Also reported with intensity II-III in Hachinohe, Iwanai, Morioka, and Sendai, Japan.
Tidal stresses may have helped promote this earthquake. The occurrence was
within about an hour of local solar midnight, a prime time for tidal stresses
to promote seismicity. ... The last earthquake within about 200 km of this
epicenter with M>=6.7 occurred on March 14, 2012 with M 7.0. No tsunami was
reported with today's earthquake." (January 14, 2016)
Today's earthquake occurred near local solar midnight and may have been
promoted by tidal and/or geomagnetic effects which maximize near this hour.
O: 24OCT2025 16:40:10 43.0N 145.6E MW=5.8 EMSC HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
O: 24OCT2025 16:40:10 43.0N 145.6E MW=5.9 JMA HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.2 in Central California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central California with III in Soledad and II in Paicines, San Juan Bautista.
The last earthquake in this area of Central California within about 50 km of
today's epicenter with M>=3.2 occurred on October 8, 2025 with M 3.2. The last of
larger magnitude was an M 3.7 on September 1, 2025.
This epicenter is located at 102-103 degrees from the major earthquake in
Mindanao and Leyte, Philippines and may have been promoted by energy
from those sources.
O: 25OCT2025 05:05:38 36.6N 121.3W ML=3.0 EMSC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 25OCT2025 05:05:38 36.6N 121.3W ML=3.2 NEIC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.8 in Trinidad and Tobago was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Trinidad and Tobago with IV in Tunapuna and Mucurapo and III in Port of Spain, Arima, Chaguanas, Tacarigua and II in Point Fortin and in Saint George, Grenada.
EMSC reported a sudden jolt in Trinidad and Tobago at Petit Valley, Mucurapo, Tunapuna, Chaguanas, and in Grenada at Saint George's, Sauteurs, and in Ciudad Guayana, Venezuela.
The mainshock was preceded by an M 3.5 about 100 km to the north in the area of
Grenada. This earthquake and others in the area today occurred as Hurricane
Melissa was active in the central Caribbean and may have been promoted
by energy from that source.
O: 24OCT2025 16:52:37 11.5N 61.9W ML=3.5 EMSC GRENADA REGION, WINDWARD ISLANDS
O: 24OCT2025 23:50:51 10.5N 61.8W MW=4.8 EMSC GULF OF PARIA, TRINIDAD-TOBAGO
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.8 in the Gulf of Venezuela was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Gulf of Venezuela in Zulia at Maracaibo.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Maracaibo, Venezuela.
This earthquake occurred near the eye of Hurricane Melissa and may have been
promoted by energy from that source as noted in this and previous issues
of this summary:
"Hurricane Melissa continued today in the region of the central Caribbean with winds up to 100 kts. It is expected to track to the north and will hit Jamaica, Cuba and the Dominican Republic and Haiti around October 27-30. It could help promote moderate seismicity in that area at that time. A moderate to moderately strong earthquake is possible in the area at this time. Much of the area surrounding the Caribbean has been active in the past several days and this could continue for the next several days. The antipode is at 16S 105E - south of Sumatra and is not a highly seismic zone but minor enhancement is possible in the area south of Sumatra at this time." (October 24-25, 2025)
These epicenters are also at the fifth node (72 degrees) from the Drake Passage
M 7.8 of October 10 and at 105 degrees from Kamchatka and may have been promoted by
energy from those sources.
O: 24OCT2025 21:30:50 11.5N 71.8W MB=4.8 EMSC GOLFO DE VENEZUELA
A moderate earthquake occurred today in the area of southern Alaska near Skwentna.
NEIC reported this earthquake of M 4.6 in Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Skwenta, Alaska with IV and III in Talkeena, Palmer, Fort Richardson, Anchorage, Willow, Elmendorf AFB among others.
EMSC reported strong shaking in Anchorage, Alaska with an earthquake noise.
The last earthquake in southern Alaska with M>=4.6 within about 150 km of this
epicenter occurred as an M 4.6 on August 6, 2025. At the time this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.6 in Central Alaska. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Anchorage; III in Matanuska-Susitna border, Girdwood, Kodiak, Skwentna, Talkeetna, Willow and Healy with II in Elmendorf AFB, Chugiak, Eagle River, Palmer, Wasilla, Fairbanks and Cantwell.
This epicenter is less than 50 km from nearby volcanic areas which have shown some signs of unrest in recent months
and may encourage a volcanic episode in those areas. This is the strongest
earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter since an M 4.6 on February 23, 2024. The last event in the
area of significantly larger magnitude was an M 5.0 on December 1, 2023." (August 6, 2025)
This epicenter is at 140 degrees from the Drake Passage and may have been
promoted by energy from that source.
O: 24OCT2025 20:03:25 61.9N 151.4W MW=4.6 EMSC SOUTHERN ALASKA
P: 24OCT2025 176634 60.5N 151.5W 3.2-4.9 AAAAA Central Alaska
P: 25OCT2025 176635 61.1N 150.2W 3.2-4.9 AAAAA Central Alaska
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.8 in the Alaska Peninsula was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Alaska Peninsula near Sand Point at Chignik.
The last earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter in Alaska of M>=4.8
occurred as an M 5.2 on September 6, 2025. It is probably an aftershock of the M 7.3
of July 16, 2025.
O: 24OCT2025 14:34:03 54.6N 159.9W MB=4.8 EMSC SOUTH OF ALASKA
The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.3 in the Beaufort Sea area of northern Alaska near the Yukon, Canada border.
It was not reported felt in this remote area. It appears to be the strongest
earthquake in this area of Alaska within about 200 km in at least 35 years.
The last earthquake in the Beaufort Sea area of Alaska with M>=5 within about 200 km occurred as an M 5.1 on
March 30, 2021, the only other such event in the region in the past 35 years. At
the time this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.1-5.3 in the Beaufort Sea
in the Yukon and Nunavut, Canada. It was not reported felt in this remote area.
This is the strongest earthquake in the Beaufort Sea within about 300 km of
this epicenter in at least 30 years. The largest earthquake previously recorded
in this area was an M 6.5 on November 16, 1920. Other earthquakes in the area
of M>5.1 hit the area on July 5, 1937 (M 5.5); and March 30, 1987 (M 5.2-5.5) exactly 34 years ago today.
An M 5.1 also hit the area on June 14, 1975." (March 30, 2021)
Today's epicenter is at 140 degrees from the Drake Passage and may have been
promoted by energy from that source.
O: 25OCT2025 06:34:01 71.7N 131.9W MW=5.3 EMSC BEAUFORT SEA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.9 in Mindanao, Philippines was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Mindanao, Philippines with III in Bislig, Caraga and II in Davao, Southern Mindanao.
EMSC reported strong shaking in Mindanao at Antipolo, Danao, Consolacion, Apas, Mandaue City, Cebu City, Adlaon, Lapu-Lapu City, Dapitan, Ormoc, Tangke, Talisay, Minglanilla, Guadalupe, Carcar City, Bacoloc City, Tagum.
O: 24OCT2025 16:05:40 8.0N 126.7E MB=4.9 EMSC MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.6-4.0 in Central Italy was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central Italy with intensity III near Naples and II in San Paolo Bel Sito, Campania.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Italy at Avellino, Castel San Giorgio, Capriglia, Nocera Superiore, Pagani, Cava De Tirreni, Angri, Salerno, Portici, Eboli, Naples, Montechiaro.
This appears related to the activity related to a possible eruption near
Mt. Vesuvius where signs of pre-eruption activity have been observed in the
past several days which included tremor and smoke.
Local news sources indicated widespread fear with this latest series of
minor tremors near Naples. The last earthquake within about 100 km of this
with M>=4 occurred as an M 4.4 on May 13, 2025. At the time this summary noted:
"An earthquake of M 4.4 shook the region of Naples, Italy today causing concern
of a coming volcanic event among residents. NEIC reported maximum intensity IV in Campania at Naples with III in Casoria and II in Sorrento, Italy.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in the Naples, Italy area at Pozzuoli with slight damage, Quarto, Naples, Casoria, Aversa, San Giorgio a Cremano, Frattamaggiore, Afragola, Trecase, Minturno, Belvedere Marittimo.
This is the strongest earthquake in the area of central Italy within about 150 km of this epicenter since an M 4.7 on March 28, 2023.
An M 4.2 hit the Naples area on March 13, 2025. At the time this summary noted:
"NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in Naples, Italy was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Naples, Italy with V in Pozzuoli, Campania; IV in Monte di Procida, Naples, Quarto, III in Bacoli, Orta di Atellaand San Giorgio a Cermano and in Penna Sant' Andrea Abruzzen, Italy.
EMSC reported this event at M 4.4 was felt strongly in Italy at Monte di Procida, Naples, Quarto, Afragola, Frattamaggiore, Pollena Trocchia, Pomigliano d'Arco, Acerra, Boscoreale, Nola.
This appears to be the strongest earthquake west of Naples in at least 40 years. The press
reported it was preceded by a loud earthquake noise. A lot of damage to facades
and ceilings was reported with the quake and in Bagnoli some people were trapped
in their houses. A ceiling collapse in Pozzuoli temporarily trapped a resident.
A series of aftershocks followed inflicting additional damage. An minor eruption of
Mount Vesuvius or Campi Flegrei is expected in the near future. The earthquake
occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by strong
tidal stresses associated with the full moon and eclipse of March 14." (March 13, 2025)
(May 13, 2025)
Today's epicenter is at the third node (120 degrees) from the Drake Passage and
at 102 degrees from the M 7.6 in Mindanao, Philippines and was likely
promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 24OCT2025 12:40:58 41.0N 14.8E ML=3.6 EMSC SOUTHERN ITALY
O: 24OCT2025 12:40:58 41.0N 14.8E ML=4.0 NEIC SOUTHERN ITALY
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.1 in Romania was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Romania.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.3 in Coquimbo, Chile was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Coquimbo, Vicuna abd Vina del Mar, Chile.
TODAY'S MAP
Stippled white lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.4 in Mindanao, Philippines of October 10, 2025.
Stippled lavender lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October 10, 2025.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
HURRICANE MELISSA
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR MELISSA 2025-10-25 00:00 UT 16.5N 75.6W 100 kts Caribbean Sea
Hurricane Melissa continued today in the region of the central Caribbean with winds up to 100 kts. It is expected to track to the north and will hit Jamaica, Cuba and the Dominican Republic and Haiti around October 27-30. It could help promote moderate seismicity in that area at that time. A moderate to moderately strong earthquake is possible in the area at this time. Much of the area surrounding the Caribbean has been active in the past several days and this could continue for the next several days. The antipode is at 16S 105E - south of Sumatra and is not a highly seismic zone but minor enhancement is possible in the area south of Sumatra at this time.
TROPICAL STORM SONIA
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS SONIA 2025-10-25 00:00 UT 13.5N 118.6W 55 kts South of Baja California, Mexico
Tropical Storm Sonia formed today in the region south of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 55 kts. It is expected to track to the west and is unlikely to enhance regional seismicity at this time. The antipode is at 13S 62E is in the Indian Ocean and could see enhanced seismicity at this time.
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHENGE
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC CHENGE 2025-10-25 00:00 UT 8.1S 49.9E 40 kts South Indian Ocean.
Tropical Cyclone Chenge (04S) continued today in the region of the South Indian Ocean with winds up to 40 kts. It is expected to track to the west and could see Regional seismicity enhanced in the Indian Ocean rift systems. The antipode is at 8N 130W is in the North Pacific in a seismic quiet zone.
The new moon arrived on October 21, 2025 at 12:25 UT. Longitudes which are sub-solar at this time area near 10 West and those which are anti-solar (local solar noon) are near 170 East longitude. These include, in the west the areas of Iceland and western Europe and portions of the central mid-Atlantic near the equator and in the east areas of the New Zealand/Tonga/Fiji/Kermadec and Solomon, Santa Cruz, and Vanuatu Islands, Kamchatka and Northern Japan and the Kurils among others. These include areas where strong tidal effects and help promote strong to major earthquakes and such an event may be expected in the next week.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 24, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight at the time of occurrence and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1440 0241 0257 0306 C2.9 (October 24, 2025) 2.8E-03
Mindanao M 4.1 02:55 UT
1450 0510 0518 0533 C1.0 (October 24, 2025) 1.3E-03
North Carolina M 2.2 05:20 UT
1470 0821 0827 0833 C1.1 (October 24, 2025) 8.2E-04
New Zealand M 5.0 08:31 UT
1480 0851 0856 0859 C1.3 (October 24, 2025) 5.9E-04
1490 1253 1301 1304 C1.5 (October 24, 2025) 8.0E-04
Minahasa M 3.6 12:54 UT
1520 1833 1840 1850 C1.3 (October 24, 2025) 1.3E-03
Sea of Japan M 4.0 18:44 UT
Argentina M 3.9 18:43 UT
Ceram Sea M 4.8 18:56 UT
Guam M 4.9 19:04 UT
1530 2000 2004 2009 C1.4 (October 24, 2025) 7.8E-04
Southern Alaska M 4.6 20:03 UT
Bonin Is. M 4.5 20:13 UT
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: Active October 27 unsettled October 25-26. Solar M-flare chance: 10% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 10 8 8 15:00 3 99 134
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 24, 2025 at 17:47:02 UT (#251024A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
October 24, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.5 in eastern Honshu, Japan was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of eastern Honshu, Japan with III in Tokyo and Narita, Chiba.
O: 24OCT2025 06:47:24 35.7N 140.1E MB=4.5 EMSC NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU,
An earlier shock of M 5.1 north of Tokyo today was reported by NEIC to have
been felt with intensity III in Sendai, Miyagi, Japan.
O: 23OCT2025 21:09:28 37.5N 141.9E MB=5.1 EMSC NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU,
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.1-3.3 in eastern Los Angeles, California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of eastern Los Angeles, California with III in Forest Falls, Banning, Lake Arrowhead, Crestline, Mintone, Winchester, Rancho Santa Fe and II in Yucaipa, Chino Hills and Barstow.
O: 24OCT2025 03:12:36 34.1N 117.0W ML=3.1 EMSC SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 24OCT2025 03:12:36 34.1N 117.0W ML=3.3 EMSC SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
NEIC reported a series of earthquakes of M 2.0-2.6 in the San Francisco Bay area of California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the San Francisco Bay area of California with III in San Mateo, Redwood City, Atherton, Menlo Pak, Palo Alto, San Carlos, Stanford, and II in Portola Valley among others.
A second series north of this occurred near Lafayette, California.
These events included an M 2.8 and M 2.7 and were reported felt with intensity
II in California at Redwood City, San Carlos, Albany and Lafayette.
O: 24OCT2025 00:11:43 37.4N 122.2W MD=2.4 EMSC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
O: 23OCT2025 22:32:45 37.4N 122.2W MD=2.0 EMSC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
O: 23OCT2025 22:34:47 37.4N 122.2W MD=2.2 EMSC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
O: 23OCT2025 23:27:41 37.4N 122.2W MD=2.5 EMSC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
O: 23OCT2025 23:37:42 37.4N 122.2W MD=2.2 EMSC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
O: 23OCT2025 22:36:38 37.9N 122.2W MD=2.6 EMSC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
O: 23OCT2025 22:36:38 37.9N 122.2W MD=2.7 NEIC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
O: 23OCT2025 22:36:38 37.9N 122.2W MD=2.8 NEIC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
O: 23OCT2025 21:16:23 37.9N 122.2W MD=2.2 EMSC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.6 in Wyoming was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Wyoming in Thayne.
O: 23OCT2025 18:15:02 43.0N 110.9W ML=2.6 EMSC WYOMING
The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.6 in the area of
Sand Point, Alaska. NEIC reported it may have been felt in the area with intensity up to III.
O: 23OCT2025 16:27:55 54.6N 160.2W MB=4.6 EMSC ALASKA PENINSULA
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.6 in the Banda Sea, Indonesia.
NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to III in the epicentral area.
O: 23OCT2025 11:46:10 6.3S 131.0E MW=5.6 EMSC BANDA SEA
TODAY'S MAP
Stippled white lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.4 in Mindanao, Philippines of October 10, 2025.
Stippled lavender lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October 10, 2025.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS MELISSA 2025-10-24 00:00 UT 15.7N 74.6W 45 kts Caribbean Sea
Tropical Storm Melissa continued today in the region of the central Caribbean with winds up to 45 kts. It is expected to track to the north becoming a Hurricane as it arrives in the area south of Jamaica the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. It could help promoted moderate seismicity in the area at that time including the Windward and Leeward Islands of the eastern Caribbean. It could also help promoted enhanced seismicity in portions of Central America like Costa Rica and Nicaragua at this time due to its slow movement. The antipode is at 14S 105E - south of Sumatra and is not a highly seismic zone but minor enhancement is possible in the area south of Sumatra at this time.
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHENGE
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC CHENGE 2025-10-24 00:00 UT 9.2S 55.5E 50 kts South Indian Ocean.
Tropical Cyclone Chenge (04S) continued today in the region of the South Indian Ocean with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track to the west and could see Regional seismicity enhanced in the Indian Ocean rift systems. The antipode is at 9N 125W is in the North Pacific in a seismic quiet zone.
The new moon arrived on October 21, 2025 at 12:25 UT. Longitudes which are sub-solar at this time area near 10 West and those which are anti-solar (local solar noon) are near 170 East longitude. These include, in the west the areas of Iceland and western Europe and portions of the central mid-Atlantic near the equator and in the east areas of the New Zealand/Tonga/Fiji/Kermadec and Solomon, Santa Cruz, and Vanuatu Islands, Kamchatka and Northern Japan and the Kurils among others. These include areas where strong tidal effects and help promote strong to major earthquakes and such an event may be expected in the next week.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 23, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight at the time of occurrence and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1350 0141 0159 0214 C2.4 (October 23, 2025) 3.7E-03
Kamchatka M 5.6 02:31 UT
1360 0411 0424 0429 C2.0 (October 23, 2025) 1.5E-03
Peru-Ecuador M 4.0 04:18 UT
New Britain M 5.2 04:07 UT
1370 0456 0508 0515 C3.2 (October 23, 2025) 2.5E-03
Solomon Is. M 5.2 05:20 UT
Peru M 4.1 04:54 UT
1380 0841 0854 0859 C1.5 (October 23, 2025) 1.2E-03
Northern Sumatra M 3.9 08:55 UT
Kamchatka M 4.5 09:02 UT
1390 1433 1443 1446 C1.2 (October 23, 2025) 1.1E-03
1420 1446 1450 1454 C1.3 (October 23, 2025) 7.6E-04
1430 1502 1506 1541 C2.1 (October 23, 2025) 8.4E-04
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: quiet October 24 and 26 unsettled October 25. Solar M-flare chance: 10% X-class: 1% proton storm: 5%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 6 3 4 21:00 2 92 130
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 18, 2025 at 03:12:02 UT (#251018A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
October 23, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.6 aftershock in Kamchatka, Russia. NEIC reported it was probably felt with intensity IV in the epicentral zone.
This earthquake occurred near local solar noon and may have been promoted by tidal stresses
which maximize near this hour.
O: 23OCT2025 02:31:27 51.4N 159.4E Mw=5.6 EMSC OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.2 in the Solomon Islands was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Solomon Islands at Honiara, Guadalcanal.
O: 23OCT2025 05:20:38 10.2S 161.2E MB=5.2 EMSC SOLOMON ISLANDS
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.2 in Papua New Guinea was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Papua New Guinea in Port Moresby.
O: 23OCT2025 04:07:02 6.6S 148.3E MB=5.2 EMSC NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
NEIC reported an aftershock of M 4.3 in Costa Rica was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Costa Rica in Esparta, Asuncion, Concepcion, Mercedes, Curridabat, Palmares, San Isidro, Santa Ana and Sabanilla.
O: 23OCT2025 03:43:03 9.1N 83.8W MB=4.3 EMSC COSTA RICA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.2 in Southern California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern California with II in Escondido, Imperial, Westmorland and Brawley.
O: 23OCT2025 00:04:29 33.1N 115.6W ML=3.0 EMSC SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 23OCT2025 00:04:29 33.1N 115.6W ML=3.2 NEIC SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.7 in eastern Los Angeles, California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of eastern Los Angeles, California with III in Rialto and Rancho Cucamonga and II in Fontana, Garden Grove, Colton, Los Angeles.
EMSC reported light shaking a a small rumble in Fontana and Rancho Cecamonga.
O: 22OCT2025 19:21:00 34.1N 117.5W ML=2.6 EMSC GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALI
O: 22OCT2025 19:21:00 34.1N 117.5W ML=2.7 NEIC GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALI
NEIC reported an M 3.2 earthquake in western Los Angeles, California area today was felt with intensity III in California at Somis, Ventura, Oxnard, Frazier Park, Santa Paula and II in Camarillo, Sherman Oaks and Rancho Cucamonga.
EMSC reported the shaking woke people with moderate shaking in Fillmore, California.
O: 22OCT2025 10:21:43 34.4N 119.1W ML=3.2 EMSC SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.3 in Guatemala was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Guatemala with III in Olintepeque, Quezaltenango and II in Atitlan, Solola.
EMSC reported strong shaking in Quetzaltenango but weak shaking in Tuxtla Gutierrez, Mexico.
O: 22OCT2025 18:58:28 14.4N 91.8W MB=4.7 EMSC GUATEMALA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.6 in Central Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central Alaska in Cantwell.
odus, Rochester, Ontario, Williamson, with III and II in King Ferry, Pittsford, Webster, Akron and Rochester. EMSC reported light shaking in Pultneyville, New York.
O: 22OCT2025 23:19:24 43.4N 77.2W ML=2.2 EMSC NEW YORK
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.0 in Ecuador was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Ecuador in Zaruma.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in Romania was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Romania at Jorasti, Letea Veche, Bacau, Barlad, Campina, I.C. Bratianu, Smardan, Valea Lupului, Iasi and in Cantemir, Moldova among others.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.3 in Panama was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Panama at Chitre, La Arena, Panama.
TODAY'S MAP
Stippled white lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.4 in Mindanao, Philippines of October 10, 2025.
Stippled lavender lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October 10, 2025.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS MELISSA 2025-10-23 00:00 UT 15.0N 74.9W 50 kts Caribbean Sea
Tropical Storm Melissa continued today in the region of the central Caribbean with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track to the north becoming a Hurricane as it arrives in the area south of Jamaica the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. It could help promoted moderate seismicity in the area at that time including the Windward and Leeward Islands of the eastern Caribbean. It could also help promoted enhanced seismicity in portions of Central America like Costa Rica and Nicaragua at this time due to its slow movement. The antipode is at 14S 105E - south of Sumatra and is not a highly seismic zone but minor enhancement is possible in the area south of Sumatra at this time.
TROPICAL STORM FENGSHEN
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS FENGSHEN 2025-10-23 00:00 UT 16.0N 108.0E 35 kts China Sea west of central Philippines Philippines
Tropical Storm Fengshen continued today in the region west of then Central Philippines with winds up to 35 kts. It is expected to track to the south and west and could see Regional seismicity enhanced in the area of the Philippines. The antipode is at 16S 72W is in southern Peru where seismic enhancement is likely in the next several days.
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHENGE
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC CHENGE 2025-10-23 00:00 UT 10.2S 59.5E 50 kts South Indian Ocean.
Tropical Cyclone Chenge (04S) continued today in the region of the South Indian Ocean with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track to the west and could see Regional seismicity enhanced in the Indian Ocean rift systems. The antipode is at 10N 120W is near the Northeast Pacific Rise west of Mexico and southern Baja California but is not expected to see enhanced seismicity at this time.
The new moon arrived on October 21, 2025 at 12:25 UT. Longitudes which are sub-solar at this time area near 10 West and those which are anti-solar (local solar noon) are near 170 East longitude. These include, in the west the areas of Iceland and western Europe and portions of the central mid-Atlantic near the equator and in the east areas of the New Zealand/Tonga/Fiji/Kermadec and Solomon, Santa Cruz, and Vanuatu Islands, Kamchatka and Northern Japan and the Kurils among others. These include areas where strong tidal effects and help promote strong to major earthquakes and such an event may be expected in the next week.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 22, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight at the time of occurrence and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1230 0019 0034 0051 C4.4 (October 22, 2025) 5.9E-03
1260 0107 0152 0203 C4.7 (October 22, 2025) 1.3E-02
1280 0631 0636 0641 C1.8 (October 22, 2025) 1.2E-03
1300 0702 0720 0808 C4.2 (October 22, 2025) 1.4E-02
Romania M 4.2 07:23 UT
Fiji M 4.5 07:30 UT
1320 1325 1338 1345 C2.4 (October 22, 2025) 2.2E-03
Halmahera M 3.8 13:25 UT
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: quiet October 23-24 unsettled October 25. Solar M-flare chance: 15% X-class: 1% proton storm: 10%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 4 1 3 19:00 2 117 133
October 22, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.9 in the region of Costa Rica. NEIC reported it was widely with intensity V in Costa Rica at Cacayas, San Isidro, Colon, San Francisco, San Juan, San Jose, Quepos, Santo Domingo, Heredia, Esparta, Puntarenas, Juntas, Guanacaste, Limon, San Pedro, Ipsis and IV in Heredia, San Antonio, Cinco Esquinas, Tobosi, Paquera, Concepcion, Parrita, Escazu, San Antonio de Desamparados, San Rafael Arriba, San Rafael Abajo, Sabanilla, Guadalupe, San Juan, Mercedes, Cartago, Daniel Flored, Santa Ana, Cahuita, La Suiza, Grecia and many other commumities. It was reportedly felt as far as 400 km in Panama.
This earthquake occurred as Tropical Storm Melissa was gaining energy to the
east in the Caribbean and may have been promoted by energy associated with
this storm as noted in this summary:
"TS MELISSA 2025-10-22 00:00 UT 14.3N 74.6W 50 kts Caribbean Sea" (October 22, 2025)
It occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by tidal
stresses with the new moon of October 21. The expected effects of this new
moon had been previous noted in this summary as:
"The new moon arrived on October 21, 2025 at 12:25 UT. Longitudes which are sub-solar at this time area near 10 West and those which are anti-solar (local solar noon) are near 170 East longitude. These include, in the west the areas of Iceland and western Europe and portions of the central mid-Atlantic near the equator and in the east areas of the New Zealand/Tonga/Fiji/Kermadec and Solomon, Santa Cruz, and Vanuatu Islands, Kamchatka and Northern Japan and the Kurils among others. These include areas where strong tidal effects and help promote strong to major earthquakes and such an event may be expected in the next week." (October 19-21, 2025)
The last earthquake in Costa Rica within about 200 km of this epicenter of M>=5.9
occurred as an M 6.0 on August 24, 2020. At the time this summary noted:
"Two strong Tropical Storms are currently active in the Gulf of Mexico. Both are
expected to make landfall in Louisiana in the next several days. These are Hurricane
Laura and TS Marco. In previous issues of this summary it had been hypothesized
that these low pressure systems could affect regional seismicity as:
...
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.0 in Costa Rica. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity V in Costa Rica at Jaco and Parrita, Puntarenas; IV in Paquera, Quepos and Colon, San Jose and III in Santiago, Atenas, Puntarenas, Esquipulas and San Ramon, Alajuela.
The epicenter in Costa Rica is directly south of the eye of Hurricane Laura
and slightly east of the eye of TS Marco at the time of the earthquake and
was probably promoted by energy from these storms." (August 24, 2020)
The last event in Costa Rica of significantly larger magnitude than the M 5.9
today occurred on November 13, 2017 with M 6.5. At the time this summary
noted:
"... the event in Costa Rica occurred at 84 West longitude while maximum
stress was expected at 83 West Longitude. It was damaging in the area of Puntarenas, Costa Rica where NEIC reported intensity VIII and in Jaco, Tobosi, Santo Domingo, Cinco Esquinas, with intensity VI.
The mainshock in Costa Rica was also reported felt with intensity V in Santiago and San Marcos de Tarrazu, San Jose, and in San Antonio, Desamparados, San Miguel, Costa Rica. Intensity V was also reported from Changuinola, Panama and Sixaola, Limon, in Los Chiles, Pital, Palmares, and Quesada, Alajuela, Costa Rica.
Lesser shaking of IV was felt within about 150 km of the epicenter while III
shaking was felt within about 200 km of the earthquake. Death tolls in this
earthquake are uncertain but it may have precipitated three fatal heart attacks in Jaco and Coronado, Costa Rica.
Internet photos showed a number of damaged or collapsed structures and tolls
are likely to rise. Minor phone and electricity outages were reported but
no tsunami was expected or observed. A number of landslides were reported which
could increase the possibility of unreported deaths or injuries.
A series of regional foreshocks hit Costa Rica at different epicenter prior
to the mainshock. These covered areas up to 250 km from the mainshock but
were probably indicative of a strong regional stress. The last earthquake
in Costa Rica of M>=6.5 occurred on October 24, 2012 (M 6.5) and prior to that an M 7.6
on September 5, 2012. That event was probably triggered by stresses from Hurricane
Isaac which helped trigger an M 7.6 in El Salvador days earlier." (November 13, 2017)
The earthquake of September 5, 2012 was an M 7.6, the strongest inthe region
of Costa Rica in at least 35 years. At the time this summary noted in regard
to the effect of Hurricane Isaac on this event:
"NHC reported that a low pressure system south of New Orleans, Louisiana
is moving slowly to the SSW. It has a 50% chance of becoming a tropical
storm in the next two days. This storm is located in the same region
as Hurricane Isaac last week and may have helped promote the earthquake
of M 7.6 in Costa Rica today." (September 5, 2012)
It is notable that the earthquake in 2012 followed several days after an
M 7.6 in Samar, Philippines, not unlike today's situation.
This summary suggested this connection at the time as:
"... These include stress transfer ... triggering effects from the M 7.6 in the Philippines of August 31. The
distance between these epicenters is 142 degrees, the other edge of the shadow
zone where energy from the core boundaries finds its way back to the surface." (September 6, 2012)
Today's earthquake in Costa Rica was at 144 (node 5) degrees from the M 7.6 in Minddanao and the
M 7.4 in Leyte, Philippines and was probably promoted by energy from those sources.
t is also at the fifth node (72 degrees) from the M 7.8 Drake Passage earthquake of
October 10 and was also probably promoted from that source.
O: 22OCT2025 03:57:06 9.4N 84.2W MW=5.9 EMSC COSTA RICA
A moderately strong earthquake also occurred today near the coast of Ecuador with M 5.5. It was reported by NEIC to have been widely felt in Ecuador in El Oro with intensity IV in Pinas, Arenillas, Psaje, Santa Rosa, Santa Lucia and III in Loja, Cuenca, Machala and Guayaquil.
EMSC reported moderate intensity in Ecuador at Zaruma, Machala, Loja, Pasaje, Vilcabamba, Cuenca, Guayaquil, Santa Lucia, San Martin, Jipijapa, Tutamandahostel and in Piura, Peru.
This epicenter is at the sixth node from the Drake Passage and may have been
promoted by energy from that source. The last earthquake of M>=5.5 within about 200
km of this epicenter in Ecuador occurred with M 5.5 on August 21, 2023. These
appear to be aftershocks of an M 6.8 in Ecuador on March 18, 2023. At the time
this summary noted in this regard:
"Today's earthquake of M 6.7 is the strongest in Ecuador within about 200 km
of this epicenter in at least 35 years. An M 7.5 hit about 300 km northeast of this on February 22, 2019
and another was an M 7.1 on August 12, 2010. These were both at intermediate
epicenters and were felt on the surface with moderate intensity ..." (March 18, 2023)
This epicenter is at the sixth node (60 degrees) from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage
of October 10, 2025 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 22OCT2025 00:05:44 3.6S 79.9W MW=5.5 EMSC NEAR COAST OF ECUADOR
An earthquake of M 4.5 also occurred in southern Peru, but was not reported felt
in the epicentral area. This earthquake may have been triggered by energy from
Tropical Storm Fengshen as it occurred at the exact antipode of the eye of
that storm currently located of southern China and Vietnam. Data as reported
in this summary for this storm follow:
"TS FENGSHEN 2025-10-22 00:00 UT 16.0N 107.6E 35 kts China Sea west of central Philippines Philippines
Tropical Storm Fengshen continued today in the region west of then Central Philippines with winds up to 35 kts. It is expected to track to the south and west and could see Regional seismicity enhanced in the area of the Philippines. The antipode is at 16S 71W is in southern Peru where seismic enhancement is likely in the next several days." (October 22, 2025)
This epicenter is located at 45 degrees (node 8) from the Drake Passage and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 21OCT2025 22:57:04 15.9S 72.8W ML=4.5 NEIC SOUTHERN PERU
The new moon arrived on October 21 (see above) when areas near 180 and 0 degrees longitude
were nearly at local solar noon and solar midnight. A series of moderate earthquake
occurred near these longitudes today and may have been promoted by tidal stresses
with this new moon. These include events of M 4.9 and M 5.1 in the Kermadec Islands;
those of M 4.4 and 4.5 in the Fiji Islands, and as an M 5.1 in the South Sandwich
Islands. A series of unusual earthquakes also occurred near the Greenwich Meridian
in Europe today. In addition to minor events in Iceland, the Greenland Sea and
Jan Mayen Islands three unusual to moderate sized earthquakes hit in northern
Europe as an M 4.1 in Hungary; and M 4.4 in Poland and an M 3.7 in Scotland. These
are discussed separately below.
O: 22OCT2025 07:30:16 20.5S 178.0W MB=4.5 EMSC FIJI REGION
O: 21OCT2025 22:22:27 20.9S 179.0W MB=4.4 EMSC FIJI REGION
O: 21OCT2025 20:02:05 33.9S 178.6W MW=5.1 EMSC SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
O: 22OCT2025 04:07:10 29.3S 178.3W MB=4.9 EMSC KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
O: 21OCT2025 18:11:08 59.1S 25.6W MB=5.2 EMSC SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
O: 21OCT2025 22:50:15 46.7N 20.0E ML=4.1 EMSC HUNGARY
O: 22OCT2025 04:50:29 63.9N 22.1W ML=3.1 EMSC ICELAND REGION
O: 21OCT2025 20:10:25 64.6N 17.5W ML=2.8 EMSC ICELAND
O: 21OCT2025 11:25:01 71.5N 5.4W ML=3.7 EMSC JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION
O: 22OCT2025 03:45:47 79.1N 2.9E ML=2.7 EMSC GREENLAND SEA
O: 21OCT2025 10:54:59 79.2N 4.5E ML=2.6 EMSC GREENLAND SEA
The earthquake of M 4.1 in Hungary today was reported widely felt in that area. EMSC reported moderate shaking in Hungary at Csongrad, Palmonostora, Csanytelek, Kiskunfelegyhaza Szentes, Mindszent, Kunszentmarton, Hodmezovasarhely, Zsombo, Nagykoroa, Szarvas, Szeged, Oroshaza, Szolnok, Kondoros, Subotica, Szabadszallas, Kozarmisleny, and in Serbia at Senta, Subotica and Backa Topola, Koceljeva.
This is the strongest earthquake within about 100 km of this epicenter in at least
35 years. This epicenter is located at the fourth node (90 degrees)
from the M 7.6 in Leyte, Philippines and may have been promoted by energy from
that source.
O: 21OCT2025 22:50:15 46.7N 20.0E ML=4.1 EMSC HUNGARY
The earthquake of M 4.4 in Poland was probably a triggered mine-related. EMSC reported
it at a shallow depth was felt with moderate intensity at Jerzmanowa, Grebocice, Polkowice, Glogow, Lubin and in Harrachov, Czechia and Truen Germany.
The last earthquake of equal or larger magnitude in the area was an M 4.5 on
October 18, 2025. At the time this summary noted:
"EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.3 in Poland was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Poland at Polkowice, Lubin, Glogow, Osiedle Henrykowskie." (October 18, 2025)
The last event of significantly larger magnitude in the area was an M 4.9 on July 8, 2020.
At the time this summary noted:
"The M 4.9 in Poland is the strongest within about 200
km of that epicenter in Poland since an M 4.9-5.0 on July 20, 2018. The last of larger magntidue
in the area was an M 5.1 on July 23, 2008. The strongest in the region in the
past 30 years was an M 5.4 on December 31, 1999." (July 8, 2020)
This epicenter is located at the fourth node (90 degrees)
from the M 7.6 in Leyte, Philippines and at the fifth node (72 degrees) from Kamchatka may have been promoted by energy from
those sources.
O: 21OCT2025 15:35:20 51.6N 16.1E ML=4.4 EMSC POLAND
The M 3.7-3.9 in Scotland was preceded by a significant foreshock at the same epicenter
of M 2.7. EMSC reported the mainshock was felt with a low rumble in Glasgow, Scotland.
This is consisten with triggering from tidal effects with the new moon of
October 21 as it is near the longitude of maximum stress with that alignment.
The only events near this magnitude within about 200 km of this epicenter
in Scotland occurred as an M 3.8 on August 4, 2017 and an M 3.7 on April 28, 2009.
At the time this summary noted:
" ... an M 3.7 earthquake was felt with intensity
V in the Lake District of England. This earthquake was centered on Ulverston,
Cumbria as well as at Barrow, Dendal, Windermere and as far south as Blackpool
and Lytham St. Annes, Lancs. The earthquake caused minor damage including
several items fallen from shelves. The earthquake lasted about 5-10 seconds
and was described as a "massive shudder". Many residents were frightened.
BGS reported this was the strongest earthquake in the North West since an event
on Dec. 26, 1979, 30 years ago. The last earthquake to shake Cumbria was
an event of M 3.0 in Ambleside in 1988." (April 28, 2009)
This epicenter is located at 104 degrees from the M 7.4 in Mindanao, and at
102 degrees from the M 7.6 in Leyte, Philippines and was probably promoted
by energy from those sources.
O: 20OCT2025 17:06:43 56.5N 4.3W ML=3.9 NEIC SCOTLAND, UNITED KINGDOM
O: 20OCT2025 17:06:43 56.5N 4.3W ML=3.7 EMSC SCOTLAND, UNITED KINGDOM
O: 20OCT2025 16:29:16 56.5N 4.6W ML=2.7 EMSC SCOTLAND, UNITED KINGDOM
An earthquake of M 5.0 was felt in the area near Nurabad, Iran today. NEIC reported
intensity III-IV in Shiraz, Fars, Iran. This epicenter is at the fifth node (72 degrees)
from the M 7.4 in Mindanao, Philippines and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 21OCT2025 08:02:37 30.3N 52.0E MB=5.0 EMSC SOUTHERN IRAN
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.1 in Afghanistan was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Afghanistan with III in Dushanbe, Tajikistan and II in Kabul, Afghanistan and Islamabad, Pakistan.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Pakistan at Chitral, Timargara, Bat Khela, Chilas, Shabqadar, Charsadda, Mardanand in Afghanistan at Pul-e Sangi, Bagrami, Kabul, Asadabad, Pul-e Khumri, Jalalabad, among others.
This epicenter is located at the sixth node (60 degrees) from Mindanao, Philippines and from Kamchatka and
142 degrees (node 5) from the Drake Passage and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 21OCT2025 18:14:49 36.6N 71.1E MW=5.1 EMSC HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.7 in Argentina was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Argentina with III in Mendoza and in Chile at Llaillay, Valpararaiso, San Bernardo, Villa Alemana, Calera, Santiago and Illapel.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Chile at San Felipe, Chicureo Abajo, Providencia, Santiago, Lo Prado, Vina del Mar, Hacienda La Calera and in Argentina at Las Heras, Mendoza.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.9 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada with III in Chemainus and II in Sooke, Duncan and II in Victoria, Cowichan, Sidney and in Washington State at Everett, Port Angeles, Friday Harbor.
O: 21OCT2025 14:08:37 32.4S 69.7W MW=4.9 EMSC MENDOZA, ARGENTINA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.6 in Central Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central Alaska in Cantwell.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in the Dodecanese Islands, Greece was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of the Dodecanese Islands, Greece in Sarigerme, Dalyan, Icmeler, Rodos, Dalaman, Turkey among others.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 3.6 in the Gulf of California was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of the Gulf of California in San jose del Cabo, El Tezal, La Playa.
TODAY'S MAP
Stippled white lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.4 in Mindanao, Philippines of October 10, 2025.
Stippled lavender lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October 10, 2025.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS MELISSA 2025-10-22 00:00 UT 14.3N 74.6W 50 kts Caribbean Sea
Tropical Storm Melissa continued today in the region of the central Caribbean with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track to the north becoming a Hurricane as it arrives in the area south of Jamaica the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. It could help promoted moderate seismicity in the area at that time including the Windward and Leeward Islands of the eastern Caribbean. It could also help promoted enhanced seismicity in portions of Central America like Costa Rica and Nicaragua at this time due to its slow movement. The antipode is at 14S 105E - south of Sumatra and is not a highly seismic zone but minor enhancement is possible in the area south of Sumatra at this time.
TROPICAL STORM FENGSHEN
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS FENGSHEN 2025-10-22 00:00 UT 16.0N 107.6E 35 kts China Sea west of central Philippines Philippines
Tropical Storm Fengshen continued today in the region west of then Central Philippines with winds up to 35 kts. It is expected to track to the south and west and could see Regional seismicity enhanced in the area of the Philippines. The antipode is at 16S 72W is in southern Peru where seismic enhancement is likely in the next several days.
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHENGE
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC CHENGE 2025-10-22 00:00 UT 10.4S 60.5E 70 kts South Indian Ocean.
Tropical Cyclone Chenge (04S) continued today in the region of the South Indian Ocean with winds up to 70 kts. It is expected to track to the west and could see Regional seismicity enhanced in the Indian Ocean rift systems. The antipode is at 10N 120W is near the Northeast Pacific Rise west of Mexico and southern Baja California but is not expected to see enhanced seismicity at this time.
The new moon arrived on October 21, 2025 at 12:25 UT. Longitudes which are sub-solar at this time area near 10 West and those which are anti-solar (local solar noon) are near 170 East longitude. These include, in the west the areas of Iceland and western Europe and portions of the central mid-Atlantic near the equator and in the east areas of the New Zealand/Tonga/Fiji/Kermadec and Solomon, Santa Cruz, and Vanuatu Islands, Kamchatka and Northern Japan and the Kurils among others. These include areas where strong tidal effects and help promote strong to major earthquakes and such an event may be expected in the next week.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 21, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight at the time of occurrence and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1010 0554 0600 0605 C1.3 (October 21, 2025) 8.8E-04
Pakistan M 4.9 05:59 UT
Panama-Costa Rica M 3.3 06:04 UT
1020 0636 0649 0659 C3.7 (October 21, 2025) 4.0E-03
1200 2336 2347 2353 C1.5 (October 21, 2025) 1.4E-03
Kamchatka M 5.1 23:37 UT
Ecuador M 5.5 00:05 UT
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: quiet October 22-24. Solar M-flare chance: 15% X-class: 1% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 9 7 8 02:00 3 107 133
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 18, 2025 at 03:12:02 UT (#251018A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 17, 2025 at 08:40:44 UT (#251017A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>18.8 was assigned to this GRB.
October 21, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.8 aftershock in the
area of Mindanao, Philippines. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III
in Southern Mindanao at Buayan and Camudmud. EMSC reported slight shaking in
Mindanao, Philippines at Magugpo, Davao, and Jagna.
O: 20OCT2025 11:35:51 7.0N 127.2E MW=5.8 EMSC PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
An M 3.7-3.9 in Scotland was preceded by a significant foreshock at the same epicenter
of M 2.7. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III in Scotland at Killin, Seafield, Aberfeldy, Sandbank, Callander, Cupar, Kyle of Lochalsh, Perth, and II in Pitlochry and Comrie. EMSC reported the mainshock was felt with a low rumble in Glasgow, Scotland.
This is consisten with triggering from tidal effects with the new moon of
October 21 as it is near the longitude of maximum stress with that alignment.
The only events near this magnitude within about 200 km of this epicenter
in Scotland occurred as an M 3.8 on August 4, 2017 and an M 3.7 on April 28, 2009.
At the time this summary noted:
" ... an M 3.7 earthquake was felt with intensity
V in the Lake District of England. This earthquake was centered on Ulverston,
Cumbria as well as at Barrow, Dendal, Windermere and as far south as Blackpool
and Lytham St. Annes, Lancs. The earthquake caused minor damage including
several items fallen from shelves. The earthquake lasted about 5-10 seconds
and was described as a "massive shudder". Many residents were frightened.
BGS reported this was the strongest earthquake in the North West since an event
on Dec. 26, 1979, 30 years ago. The last earthquake to shake Cumbria was
an event of M 3.0 in Ambleside in 1988." (April 28, 2009)
This epicenter is located at 104 degrees from the M 7.4 in Mindanao, and at
102 degrees from the M 7.6 in Leyte, Philippines and was probably promoted
by energy from those sources.
O: 20OCT2025 17:06:43 56.5N 4.3W ML=3.9 NEIC SCOTLAND, UNITED KINGDOM
O: 20OCT2025 17:06:43 56.5N 4.3W ML=3.7 EMSC SCOTLAND, UNITED KINGDOM
O: 20OCT2025 16:29:16 56.5N 4.6W ML=2.7 EMSC SCOTLAND, UNITED KINGDOM
An earthquake of M 5.0 occurred today in the Dominican Republic. NEIC reported it was
felt with intensity V widely in the southern portion of the Dominican Republic with reported intensities of IV from Piedra Blanca Monsenor Nouel, Nagua Maria, Cabral and El Carril and III in Padre las Casas, Santo Domingo, San Cristobal, Villa Altagracia, Santiago and Constanza La Vega.
The last earthquake in the Dominican Republic with M>=5 was an 5.0 on November 10, 2023 but the
last of significantly larger magnitude was an M 7.2 in Haiti about 300 km west
of today's epicenter on August 14, 2021. At the time this summary noted:
"A major earthquake hit the region of Haiti today. This event of M 7.2 was initially
reported to have killed more than 225 people but hundreds more are missing or
injured. The mainshock was reported by NEIC to have been felt with intensity IV in Haiti
...
The only earthquake in historical record in Haiti of M>=7.2 was an M 7.2 in 1887
but the date is not known. A similar event may have occurred with M 7.2 in 1770 and in October 1751.
More recently earthquakes in the region of Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and Haiti
occurred north of Puerto Rico with M 7.3 on April 21, 1948; M 8.1 and 7.9 in August, 1946 and
M 7.9 on July 29, 1943. Earthquakes in northern Puerto Rico also occurred in the 1900's on October 11, 1918 with M 7.5 and
with M 7.2 on April 24, 1916." (August 41, 2021)
Today's earthquake in the Dominican Republic occurred as Tropical Storm Melissa
was approaching southern Dominican Republic as noted in this and previous
issues of this summary:
"Tropical Storm Melissa continued today in the region of the central Caribbean with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track to the north becoming a Hurricane as it arrives in the area south of Jamaica the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. It could help promoted moderate seismicity in the area at that time including the Windward and Leeward Islands of the eastern Caribbean. It could also help promoted enhanced seismicity in portions of Central America like Costa Rica and Nicaragua at this time due to its slow movement. The antipode is at 14S 105E - south of Sumatra and is not a highly seismic zone but minor enhancement is possible in the area south of Sumatra at this time." (October 20-21, 2025)
This epicenter is at 146 degrees from the M 7.6 in Leyte, Philippines and
was probably promoted by energy from that source.
O: 20OCT2025 19:13:45 18.5N 70.6W MB=5.0 EMSC DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
Several other earthquake in the eastern Caribbean today may also have been
promoted by energy from Tropical Storm Melissa. These were located in the
Leeward Islands as an M 3.5 in St. Martin and an M 4.2 in Antigua and Barbuda.
The combination of stresses with the new moon and Tropical Storm Melissa
may have helped trigger this complex of earthquakes in the Caribbean today.
These epicenters are located at 100-102 degrees from Kamchatka and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 21OCT2025 01:09:12 18.0N 62.4W ML=3.5 EMSC ST. MARTIN REGION, LEEWARD ISL.
O: 21OCT2025 03:36:58 17.6N 61.7W ML=4.2 EMSC ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA REGION
The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.0 in the Andreanof Island, Aleutians, Alaska. NEIC
reported it was felt with intensity II in Adak, Alaska. It is likely this event
was promoted by tidal stresses with the new moon as it lies near the longitude
of maximum stress with that alignment as noted in this and previous issues of
this summary:
"The new moon will arrive on October 21, 2025 at 12:25 UT. Longitudes which are sub-solar at this time area near 10 West and those which are anti-solar (local solar noon) are near 170 East longitude. These include, in the west the areas of Iceland and western Europe and portions of the central mid-Atlantic near the equator and in the east areas of the New Zealand/Tonga/Fiji/Kermadec and Solomon, Santa Cruz, and Vanuatu Islands, Kamchatka and Northern Japan and the Kurils among others. These include areas where strong tidal effects and help promote strong to major earthquakes and such an event may be expected in the next week." (October 19-21, 2025)
This epicenter is located at 144 degrees from the Drake Passage and at the sixth node
(60 degrees) from major recent earthquakes in the Philippines and may have been
promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 20OCT2025 18:45:27 51.3N 177.1W MB=5.0 EMSC ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS
An unusual earthquake of M 4.7 also occurred today in the Falkland Islands east of
southern South America. It was not reported felt in this remote area. The
last earthquake of M>=4.7 in the Falkland Islands within about 200 km of today's epicenter
occurred as a M 5.1 about 200 km to the south on July 30, 2023 but no earthquakes
have hit the Falkland Islands within the 200 km radius of today's epicenter
in at least 35 years. When the M 5.1 hit north of this on July 30, 2023
this summary noted:
"The M 5.1 in the Falkland Islands area was the strongest event in the Falkland
Islands within about 300 km of this epicenter since an M 5.6 about 300 km southeast of
today's epicenter on January 5, 2000. The only other similar event in the area in the
past 35 years was an M 5.2 on February 15, 1993.
" ... a series of moderate earthquakes occurred
in the South Shetland and Falkland Islands near South America. The activity
in the South Shetland area follows similar activity which began in late September
and has continued off-and-on since that time. The last earthquake of M>=4.4
in the Falkland Island area was an M 5.0 on September 7. Other earthquakes
in the past year in the Falklands occurred on July 30 and July 8 (M 4.6-4.7)." (October 22, 2020)
Today's event is likely to have been promoted by stress redistribution following
the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage about 1000 km to the south of October 10, 2025.
O: 20OCT2025 09:14:55 52.1S 61.5W MB=4.7 EMSC FALKLAND ISLANDS REGION
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.1 in Central Honshu, Japan was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central Honshu, Japan with II in Numata, Gunma.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.1 in Central Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central Alaska with III in Eielson AFB, North Pole and Fairbanks.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.5 in Southern Iran was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Southern Iran at Yasuj, Gerash.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.1 in southern Siberia, Russia was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of in southern Siberia, Russia in Sayanogorsk.
TODAY'S MAP
Stippled white lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.4 in Mindanao, Philippines of October 10, 2025.
Stippled lavender lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October 10, 2025.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS MELISSA 2025-10-21 00:00 UT 14.2N 74.0W 50 kts Caribbean Sea
Tropical Storm Melissa continued today in the region of the central Caribbean with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track to the north becoming a Hurricane as it arrives in the area south of Jamaica the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. It could help promoted moderate seismicity in the area at that time including the Windward and Leeward Islands of the eastern Caribbean. It could also help promoted enhanced seismicity in portions of Central America like Costa Rica and Nicaragua at this time due to its slow movement. The antipode is at 14S 105E - south of Sumatra and is not a highly seismic zone but minor enhancement is possible in the area south of Sumatra at this time.
TROPICAL STORM FENGSHEN
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS FENGSHEN 2025-10-21 00:00 UT 16.5N 110.0E 50 kts China Sea west of central Philippines Philippines
Tropical Storm Fengshen continued today in the region west of then Central Philippines with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track to the south and west and could see Regional seismicity enhanced in the area of the Philippines. The antipode is at 17S 70W is in the northern Chile and southern Peru area where seismic enhancement is possible in the next several days.
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHENGE
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC CHENGE 2025-10-21 00:00 UT 10.2S 62.2E 75 kts South Indian Ocean.
Tropical Cyclone Chenge (04S) continued today in the region of the South Indian Ocean with winds up to 75 kts. It is expected to track to the west and could see Regional seismicity enhanced in the Indian Ocean rift systems. The antipode is at 10N 118W is near the Northeast Pacific Rise west of Mexico and southern Baja California and could see enhanced seismicity at this time.
The new moon will arrive on October 21, 2025 at 12:25 UT. Longitudes which are sub-solar at this time area near 10 West and those which are anti-solar (local solar noon) are near 170 East longitude. These include, in the west the areas of Iceland and western Europe and portions of the central mid-Atlantic near the equator and in the east areas of the New Zealand/Tonga/Fiji/Kermadec and Solomon, Santa Cruz, and Vanuatu Islands, Kamchatka and Northern Japan and the Kurils among others. These include areas where strong tidal effects and help promote strong to major earthquakes and such an event may be expected in the next week.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 20, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight at the time of occurrence and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
590 0224 0234 0247 C5.9 (October 20, 2025) 7.3E-03
San Francisco M 2.1 02:24 UT
Philippines M 4.9 02:43 UT
630 0510 0527 0538 M1.0 (October 20, 2025) 1.3E-02
Pakistan M 4.7 05:42 UT
680 0739 0748 0820 C3.5 (October 20, 2025) 7.6E-03
710 0947 0955 0959 C2.6 (October 20, 2025) 1.6E-03
Xinjiang M 4.5 09:46 UT
790 1514 1545 1623 C3.0 (October 20, 2025) 1.1E-02
Mindanao M 4.2 15:47 UT
Papua M 4.7 16:15 UT
940 2316 2324 2333 C2.1 (October 20, 2025) 2.0E-03
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: disturbed October 21 quiet October 22-23. Solar M-flare chance: 25% X-class: 1% proton storm: 5%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 8 7 6 05:00 3 109 140
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 18, 2025 at 03:12:02 UT (#251018A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 17, 2025 at 08:40:44 UT (#251017A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>18.8 was assigned to this GRB.
October 20, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
A moderate earthquake of M 4.2 was widely felt in northern island of Hawaii today. NEIC reported intensity III in Hawaii at Laupahoehoe, Kealakekua, Honokaa, Papaaloa, Paauilo, Waikoloa, Naalehu, Kamuela, Kailua Kona and Ookala, among others.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Kailua-Kona, Puako, Waimea, Pepeekeo.
This accompanied a major eruption of Kilauea Volcano in Hawaii but was not
associated with that eruption. It is the strongest earthquake in northern
island of tectonic origin since an M 4.5 on March 20, 2022. At the time this
summary noted in this regard:
"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.5-5.2 north of Hawaii.
It was also the strongest earthquake in the world today. It was widely felt throughout much of Hawaii. NEIC reported maximum intensity V at Honokaa, Paauilo with IV in Kapaau, Hawi, Kamuela, Ookala, Laupahoehoe, Papaaloa, Hakalau and IIII in Waikoloa and as far as 400 km from the epicenter in Princeville and Kapaa, Hawaii.
The earthquake in Hawaii follows a strong series of volcanic eruptions which accompanied
the solar flares of July 2-3, which included an X1.5 on July 3, the largest
observed in nearly four years." (July 5, 2021)
This epicenter is located at 109 degrees from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage
of October 10 and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 19OCT2025 18:26:08 19.8N 156.1W ML=4.2 EMSC HAWAII REGION, HAWAII
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.0 in Ontario, Canada was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Ontario, Canada in Sudbury and Lively with III.
A moderate earthquake of M 4.2 was widely felt today in the area of Albania.
EMSC reported moderate to strong motion was induced in Albania at Tepelene, Kelcyre, Berat, Gjirokaster, Kucove, Kozare, Vlore, Elbasan, Tirana, Paskuqan, Durres, Maminas, Rrashbull and in Greece in Zakynthos, Evosmos, in Sjenica, Servia,and in Mostar Bosnia and Herzegovina.
O: 19OCT2025 22:59:30 40.4N 20.1E ML=4.2 EMSC ALBANIA
A moderate earthquake was also felt in northern Algeria today. This event of M 4.5 was
reported by EMSC to have been felt with moderate intensity in Algeria at Tazoult-Lambese Batna, Ain Touta.
O: 19OCT2025 14:53:35 35.3N 6.4E MB=4.5 EMSC NORTHERN ALGERIA
O: 19OCT2025 15:08:58 35.1N 6.4E mb=3.6 EMSC NORTHERN ALGERIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in Mindanao, Philippines was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Mindanao, Philippines in Mati and Buayan, Southern Mindanao.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.8 in Sumba, Indonesia was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Sumba, Indonesia at Rato.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 2.1 in San Francisco California was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of San Francisco California in Vallejo.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in St. Lucia, Windward Islands was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of St. Lucia, Windward Islands in Martinique at Saint-Esprit, and Le Gros-Morne.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.3 in Central Turkey was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Central Turkey at Kadirli, Seyhan, Gulsehir, Aksaray, Idlib, Gaziantep,
TODAY'S MAP
Stippled white lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.4 in Mindanao, Philippines of October 10, 2025.
Stippled lavender lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October 10, 2025.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
TROPICAL STORM FENGSHEN
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS FENGSHEN 2025-10-20 00:00 UT 17.9N 112.9E 55 kts China Sea west of central Philippines Philippines
Tropical Storm Fengshen continued today in the region west of then Central Philippines with winds up to 55 kts. It is expected to track to the south and west and could see Regional seismicity enhanced in the area of the Philippines. The antipode is at 18S 68W is in the northern Chile and southern Peru where seismic enhancement is likely in the next several days.
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHENGE
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC CHENGE 2025-10-20 00:00 UT 9.1S 67.0E 75 kts South Indian Ocean.
Tropical Cyclone Chenge (04S) continued today in the region of the South Indian Ocean with winds up to 75 kts. It is expected to track to the west and could see Regional seismicity enhanced in the Indian Ocean rift systems. The antipode is at 9N 113W is near the Northeast Pacific Rise west of Mexico and could see enhanced seismicity at this time.
The new moon will arrive on October 21, 2025 at 12:25 UT. Longitudes which are sub-solar at this time area near 10 West and those which are anti-solar (local solar noon) are near 170 East longitude. These include, in the west the areas of Iceland and western Europe and portions of the central mid-Atlantic near the equator and in the east areas of the New Zealand/Tonga/Fiji/Kermadec and Solomon, Santa Cruz, and Vanuatu Islands, Kamchatka and Northern Japan and the Kurils among others. These include areas where strong tidal effects and help promote strong to major earthquakes and such an event may be expected in the next week.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 19, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight at the time of occurrence and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
300 0146 0156 0204 M1.0 (October 19, 2025) 8.5E-03
Mindanao M 3.9 01:54 UT
310 0428 0434 0439 C2.8 (October 19, 2025) 2.0E-03
Oaxaca M 4.2 04:34 UT
Northern Peru M 3.9 04:35 UT
320 0749 0802 0815 C4.7 (October 19, 2025) 6.1E-03
Mindanao M 4.3 07:57 UT
Papua M 4.0 08:09 UT
330 1226 1242 1304 C2.6 (October 19, 2025) 5.6E-03
340 1334 1342 1346 C2.9 (October 19, 2025) 2.0E-03
Luzon M 3.8 113:34 UT
Chiapas M 4.1 13:44 UT
Mindanao M 4.0 13:47 UT
350 1608 1613 1619 C2.4 (October 19, 2025) 1.7E-03
Kamchatka M 4.8 16:07 UT
360 1815 1822 1827 C3.7 (October 19, 2025) 2.7E-03
Hawaii M 4.2 18:26 UT
Kamchatka M 4.8 18:27 UT
370 2003 2015 2026 M1.8 (October 19, 2025) 1.5E-02
550 2244 2252 2306 C3.0 (October 19, 2025) 3.9E-03
Tanimbar M 4.9 22:44 UT
Hindu Kush M 4.2 22:50 UT
Albania M 4.2 22:59 UT
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: disturbed October 20-22. Solar M-flare chance: 40% X-class: 10% proton storm: 1%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 18:25 11 15:00 5 103 149
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 18, 2025 at 03:12:02 UT (#251018A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 17, 2025 at 08:40:44 UT (#251017A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>18.8 was assigned to this GRB.
October 19, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.4 aftershock in the northern Mindanao region of the Philippines. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity V in Caraga at Aras-Asan; IV in Andili, Southern Mindanao and III in Butuan, Nabunturan, Davao, Cabadbaran, Barra, and Purok among others.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.2 in Mindanao, Philippines was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Mindanao, Philippines in Tagum, Southern Mindanao.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Mindanao at San Francisco, Madrid, Patin-ay, Maygatasan, Tungao, Basag, General Luna, Cateel, Surigao, Mariano, Magugpo Poblacion, Cagayan de Oro, Barra, Babak, Davao City, Mati among othrs.
O: 18OCT2025 12:31:32 8.9N 126.5E MW=5.4 EMSC MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.7 in Southern California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern California in Borrego Springs.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.8 in Southern Idaho was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern Idaho in Garden Valley.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.8 in Central California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central California in San jose, (III) and II in Mount Hamilton, Alameda and Campbell.
This earthquake occurred near local solar noon and may have been promoted by tidal
energy which maximizes near this hour. It was followed by an M 2.3 aftershock
6.5 minutes later.
O: 18OCT2025 09:16:41 37.3N 121.7W MD=2.7 EMSC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
O: 18OCT2025 09:23:17 37.3N 121.7W MD=2.3 EMSC NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in Southern Peru was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Tacna, Peru.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 3.4 in Northern Algeria was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Northern Algeria in Ain Bessem, KLakhdaria, Beni Amrane, Boumerdas, Ain Taya, Bouinan.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.6 in Bali Sea, Indonesia was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Bali Sea, Indonesia in Gianyar, Legian.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.3 in Poland was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Poland at Polkowice, Lubin, Glogow, Osiedle Henrykowskie.
O: 18OCT2025 14:59:57 51.4N 16.1E ML=4.3 EMSC POLAND
TODAY'S MAP
Stippled white lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.4 in Mindanao, Philippines of October 10, 2025.
Stippled lavender lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October 10, 2025.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
TROPICAL STORM FENGSHEN
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS FENGSHEN 2025-10-19 00:00 UT 15.9N 117.6E 50 kts West of Luzon, Philippines
Tropical Storm Fengshen continued today in the region west of Central Philippines with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track to the north and west and could continue to see seismic enhancement in the Philippines in the next several days. The antipode is at 16S 65W is in northern Brazil and is unlikely to see seismic enhancement at this time.
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHENGE (04S)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC CHENGE 2025-10-19 00:00 UT 8.5S 69.7E 75 kts South Indian Ocean.
Tropical Cyclone Chenge (04S) continued today in the region of the South Indian Ocean with winds up to 75 kts. It is expected to track to the west and could see Regional seismicity enhanced in the Indian Ocean rift systems. The antipode is at 9N 111W is near the Northeast Pacific Rise west of Mexico and could see enhanced seismicity at this time.
The new moon will arrive on October 21, 2025 at 12:25 UT. Longitudes which are sub-solar at this time area near 10 West and those which are anti-solar (local solar noon) are near 170 East longitude. These include, in the west the areas of Iceland and western Europe and portions of the central mid-Atlantic near the equator and in the east areas of the New Zealand/Tonga/Fiji/Kermadec and Solomon, Santa Cruz, and Vanuatu Islands, Kamchatka and Northern Japan and the Kurils among others. These include areas where strong tidal effects and help promote strong to major earthquakes and such an event may be expected in the next week.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 18, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight at the time of occurrence and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
100 0023 0040 0049 M1.0 (October 18, 2025) 1.3E-02
Michoacan M 4.0 00:24 UT
130 0205 0209 0214 C2.9 (October 18, 2025) 1.7E-03
Taiwan M 4.8 02:04 UT
140 0218 0224 0226 C9.5 (October 18, 2025) 6.2E-03
150 0226 0239 0247 M1.1 (October 18, 2025) 1.4E-02
190 0543 0605 0619 C9.9 (October 18, 2025) 1.9E-02
Sea of Japan M 4.1 05:45 UT
200 0632 0639 0644 M1.2 (October 18, 2025) 7.7E-03
210 0649 0658 0704 M1.3 (October 18, 2025) 1.1E-02
240 0735 0748 0755 C6.0 (October 18, 2025) 5.8E-03
260 1037 1051 1059 M1.5 (October 18, 2025) 1.4E-02
Luzon M 4.7 10:51 UT
Pakistan M 4.5 10:51 UT
Guerrero M 4.0 10:54 UT
270 1732 1737 1751 C3.0 (October 18, 2025) 3.4E-03
Kamchatka M 5.1 17:57 UT
280 2118 2126 2133 C3.1 (October 18, 2025) 2.7E-03
Coquimbo M 3.9 21:16 UT
290 2140 2154 2201 C8.0 (October 18, 2025) 6.7E-03
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: Disturbed October 19-21. Solar M-flare chance: 50% X-class: 10% proton storm: 5%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 36 46 20 20:00 6 105 156
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 18, 2025 at 03:12:02 UT (#251018A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 17, 2025 at 08:40:44 UT (#251017A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>18.8 was assigned to this GRB.
October 18, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
An earthquake of M 2.9-3.0 occurred in Southern Texas today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Poth, Texas.
While an M 3.0 hit this area on October 16, the last earthquake of larger magnitude
was an M 3.3on September 20, 2025. When an M 4.5 occurred near this epicenter on January 30, 2025, this
summary noted:
"The unusual earthquake in southern Texas was the strongest in that region
in recorded history. The only event of M>=4 in the area since 1990 was an
M 4.3 on April 9, 1993. There is no record of any earthquake in this area
off south-central Texas of M>4 since events were first recorded in the area
nearly 200 years ago. It may be due to oil extraction in the area but
this is simply speculation. This is one of the strongest earthquakes ever
recorded in Texas. It may be related to the landfall of Hurricane Irwin
which occurred several days ago to the south of this. We had suggested this
storm an Hurricane Jova could have a significant effect on regional seismicity
in our summaries of mid-October. These had noted:
"The peculiar motion of this storm, however indicates that if it should reach
the coast of Mexico it could trigger a strong to major earthquake along
the coast of western Mexico. This is a storm to keep an eye on especially
since Tropical Storm Jova is aiming for the same area. The combined effect
of two such storms so close together could be significant." (Mid-October, 2011 summaries)
O: 17OCT2025 07:25:41 29.0N 98.2W ML=2.0 EMSC SOUTHERN TEXAS
O: 18OCT2025 03:04:34 29.0N 98.2W ML=2.0 EMSC SOUTHERN TEXAS
O: 17OCT2025 09:39:14 29.0N 98.2W ML=2.2 EMSC SOUTHERN TEXAS
O: 18OCT2025 02:33:37 29.0N 98.2W ML=2.9 EMSC SOUTHERN TEXAS
O: 18OCT2025 02:33:37 29.0N 98.2W ML=3.0 NEIC SOUTHERN TEXAS
An unusual earthquake of M 3.0 occurred in central Colorado today. NEIC reported
it was felt with intensity I-II in Colorado Springs and Denver in the area of
Castle Rock, Colorado. This event occurred within minutes of local solar
noon and was probably promoted by tidal and/or geomagnetic stresses which
tend to maximize near this hour. The last earthquake of M>=3.0 within about
100 km of this epicenter was an M 3.1 on July 22, 2001. The only other such event in
this area in the past 35 years was an M 3.3 on January 18, 1997.
This epicenter is at 104 degrees from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October 10
and was likely promoted by energy from that source.
O: 17OCT2025 18:51:19 39.1N 104.6W ML=3.0 EMSC COLORADO
The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.1 in the Fox Islands, Aleutians, Alaska.
NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III in Alaska at Unalaska and Akutan. This
is the strongest earthquake in the Fox Islands within about 150 km of this epicenter
since an M 5.3 on July 27, 2025. At the time this summary noted in this regard:
"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 5.3 in the Fox Islands, Aleutians, Alaska. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Akutan and Unalaska, Alaska.
This earthquake occurred within minutes of local solar noon and was probably
promoted by strong tidal stresses which maximize near this hour.
This epicenter is at 103 degrees from recent strong earthquakes south of
New Zealand and may have been promoted by energy from those sources." (July 27, 2025)
This epicenter is at the fifth node (72 degrees) from the M 7.4 in Mindanao, Philippines
and at 141 degrees from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October 10 and
was probably promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 17OCT2025 15:48:48 53.6N 165.7W MW=5.1 EMSC FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.5 in Pakistan. NEIC reported it was felt with
intensity II in Islamabad, Pakistan. EMSC reported strong shaking in Pakistan at Bat Khela, Abbottabad, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, and Lahore. The last earthquake in this area of
Pakistan within about 150 km of this epicenter with M>=5.5 occurred as an M 57 about 150 km
southwest of this epicenter at a depth of 98 km on April 19, 2025 but the last
earthquake at a shallow focal depth in this region of M>=5.5 was an M 5.5 on March 12, 2012. The
only event of significantly larger magnitude at a shallow focus in this
region was an M 6.2 on March 5, 1990. At the time of the March 12, 2012 event this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake of the day was an M 5.6 in northwestern Kashmir.
NEIC reported this earthquake was felt with intensity V in Chitral, North-west
Frontier, Pakistan and III in Isfara, Tajikistan and III in Kabul, Afghanistan.
IBN reported the quake caused people to rush from their homes in some areas.
It was felt with moderate intensity in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa capital Peshawar,
Malakand, Swat, Abbotabad and Gilgit and was followed by an M 3.9
aftershock. While there was not immediate report of damage or casualties
from this earthquake construction in the area often results in damages
from earthquakes of this size and this may be reported at a later time. This is the strongest earthquake located in Kashmir in at least four years.
The last earthquake of similar size in the region was an M 5.6 on August 5, 2006
while the last event of larger magnitude occurred with M 6.0-6.3 on November
20, 2002. The Kashmir earthquake is located at 103 degrees from the last
major earthquake in the world - the M 7.3 in Vanuatu. Seismic energy is
concentrated on the surface at this distance from large events and may
trigger subsequent activity such as this at this distance range. Some have
referred to this as the "P103 theory"." (March 12, 2012)
This epicenter is located at 143 degrees from the Drake Passage (Node 5); 52 degrees (node 7) from Leyte, Philippines and the sixth node from Kamchatka (60 degrees) and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 17OCT2025 12:15:03 36.7N 72.7E MW=5.5 EMSC PAKISTAN
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in Taiwan was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Taiwan in Taipei with III; Hsinchu (II) and Taichung.
TODAY'S MAP
Stippled white lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.4 in Mindanao, Philippines of October 10, 2025.
Stippled lavender lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October 10, 2025.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
TROPICAL STORM FENGSHEN
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS FENGSHEN 2025-10-18 00:00 UT 13.9N 122.6E 45 kts Luzon, Philippines
Tropical Storm Fengshen continued today in the region of Central Philippines with winds up to 45 kts. It is expected to track to the north and west and could see Regional seismicity enhanced in this very active area of the Philippines. The antipode is at 14S 57W is in the northern Brazil and could see some seismic enhancement at this time.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC 04S 2025-10-18 00:00 UT 8.2S 71,7E 45 kts South Indian Ocean.
Tropical Cyclone 04S formed today in the region of the South Indian Ocean with winds up to 45 kts. It is expected to track to the west and could see Regional seismicity enhanced in the Indian Ocean rift systems. The antipode is at 8N 109W is near the Northeast Pacific Rise west of Mexico and could see enhanced seismicity at this time.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 17, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight at the time of occurrence and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9850 0115 0128 0140 M1.5 (October 17, 2025) 1.4E-02
Honduras M 4.6 01:15 UT
Coquimbo M 4.5 01:15 UT
Kamchatka 01:25 UT
9880 0548 0554 0557 C8.0 (October 17, 2025) 3.2E-03
Ethiopia M 4.3 05:43 UT
Tarapaca M 4.2 05:55 UT
9900 1014 1020 1030 C6.7 (October 17, 2025) 6.8E-03
9910 1030 1037 1042 C6.5 (October 17, 2025) 6.0E-03
Jalisco M 3.8 10:33 UT
9920 1042 1046 1049 C7.2 (October 17, 2025) 3.5E-03
Luzon M 4.2 10:45 UT
Nicarabua M 4.4 10:48 UT
9940 1202 1206 1217 C6.1 (October 17, 2025) 5.0E-03
Easter Island M 4.5 12:14 UT
Pakistan M 5.5 12:15 UT
9950 1227 1245 1301 M1.1 (October 17, 2025) 1.8E-02
9960 1422 1432 1436 M1.0 (October 17, 2025) 6.1E-03
New Britain M 4.8 14:22 UT
9970 1614 1632 1647 M1.3 (October 17, 2025) 2.3E-02
9990 1647 1658 1708 M1.2 (October 17, 2025) 1.6E-02
20 1855 1905 1912 M1.1 (October 17, 2025) 1.1E-02
90 2321 2330 2336 C9.0 (October 17, 2025) 6.3E-03
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: active October 18-20. Solar M-flare chance: 60% X-class: 15% proton storm: 10%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 9 17 8 10:00 5 120 164
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 17, 2025 at 08:40:44 UT (#251017A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 14, 2025 at 21:54:41 UT (#251014D). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>19.2 was assigned to this GRB.
An earthquake of M 4.6 in New Guinea was closely associated with this GRB and occurred at 21:58 UT
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 14, 2025 at 00:28:30 UT (#251014A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
An earthquake of M 4.0 in Mindanao was closely associated with this GRB and occurred at 00:30 UT
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 11, 2025 at 07:08:22 UT (#251011B). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
October 17, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
A moderate geomagnetic storm with high latitude K-index of 5-6 is expected
early on October 17. This storm is not likely to significantly affect
global seismicity which is likely to remain at relatively quiet levels
for another day.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.4 in Kamchatka was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Kamchatka.
This epicenter occurred within minutes of local solar noon and was probably
promoted by strong tidal and/or geomagnetic effects which maximize near this hour.
O: 17OCT2025 01:25:56 53.2N 159.9E mb=5.4 EMSC NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
Aftershocks also continued today in the region of northern Mindanao, Philippines.
These occurred with maximum M 6.1 on the Philippines Trench. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity V in Caraga at Luna, IV in Purok, Tago, Calero, Central Sisayas and Nabunturan, Mindanao with III in Brasilisa, Davao, Libertad, Los Angeles, Butuan and II in Mandawa, Barra, Tangnan and Ula.
EMSC reported moderate to strong shaking in General Luna, Libas, Calver, Placer, Dinagat, Mati, Jabonga, Cabadbaran, Low Angeles, Libertad, Hinunangan, Butuan City, Southern Leyte, Bah-Bah, La Paz, Gabas, Cagayan de Oro, Igpit among others.
PHIVOLCS reported intensity V i General Luna, Claver, Pilar, Placer, San Benito, San Isidro and Socorro, Surigao del Norte; Basilisa, Cagdianao, Dinagat and San Jose, Denagat Islands; IV in the City of Butuan, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, southern Leyte, Surigao del Sur and Agusan del Sur with shaking or II-III throughout the general region.
The earthquake of M 6.1 in Mindanao is the strongest within about 200 km
of this epicenter since an M 6.5 on February 10, 2017 and fills a gap in the stress release
along the Philippines Trench. At the time this summary noted:
"A strong earthquake of M 6.5 hit the region of northern Mindanao, Philippines today.
NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity VII in Buenavista, Caraga, Philippines and V in Manila de Bugabus, Butuan, Union; IV in the Visayas at Leyte, San Francisco, Purok, Tabontabon, Pawing, Tangke. Intensity II-III was reported as far as 300 km from the epicenter at Davao, Southern Mindanao, Panabo, Tagum, Dumaguete, Sumpong, Hinatuan, Lumbia, Baikingon, Cagayan, Barra, Calero, Cebu, Mandawa, Bugo, Lapu-Lapu, Tagoloan, Balilihan, San Antonio, Ormoc, Balingasag, Baras, Bayugan, Talisayan, San Miguel, Abuyog, Madrid, Carrascal, Sogod, Macrohon and Tubajon, Philippines.
PHIVOLCS reported it was felt with intensity VII in Surigao City; VI in Malimono and San Francisco, Surigao Del Nothe; Pintuyan Southern Leyte; V in Mainit and Placer, Surigao Del Norte; Libjo and San Joses, Dinagat Island; Mandaue City; San Ricardo, Limasawa and San Francisco, Southern Leyte; IV in Hinunangan and San Juan, Southern Leyte; Abuyog, Leyte, Mayorga, Leyte; Butuan Cith; Cabadaran, Agusan del North; III in Mambajao,k Caminguin, Oormac City; Palo, Pastana, Tolosa and Tacloban, Leyte; Catbalogan City, W. Samar; Bislig City, Gingoon City, Misamis Oriental; Adpa, Surigao Del Norte, Iligan City; Cagayan De Oro City and II in Cebu City; Talocogon, Agusan del Sur; Dumaguete City; Tagbilaran City, Bohol, Capoocan, Leyte; El Salvador, Misamis Oriental; Oroquieta City and Blaridel Misamis Occidental, Philippines.
The last earthquake of M>=6.5 within about 250 km of this epicenter was widely
felt on October 15, 2013 with M 7.1 in the Bohol area and did extensive
damage and loss of life in the area. An earthquake of M 7.6 hit about 150
km northeast of today's epicenter on August 31 2012.
and
A series of moderate to strong earthquakes along the geomagnetic equator today
were probably promoted by a combination of effects from the now-concluded
geomagnetic storm and tidal stresses associated with the full moon which
was completed early on February 11. The strongest of these was an M 6.5 in
northern Mindanao within about an hour of local solar midnight, a time when
solar/tidal effects are maximized. An M 5.6 in Taiwan followed and was widely felt
in that region. These events are both within about 0-15 degrees of the geomagnetic
equator." (February 10, 2017)
Today's earthquake is not a classical aftershock of other recent major events
from central Mindanao north to Leyte which have occurred on the Philippine Trench.
These appear to be breaking segments of the trench at a time with several
days between each strong earthquake, an unusual situation. A major earthquake
striking the same distance along the entire Philippines Trench would have
had a magnitude of 8-9. This possibility has been reduced by the series
of earthquakes, including today's along the length of the fault.
This earthquake of M 6.1 may have been promoted by a moderate solar flare
(9830 C5.5) as it occurred near the end of that flare. Data from SWPC
for this flare follow:
9830 2238 2254 2302 C5.5 (October 16, 2025) 6.4E-03
Mindanao M 6.1 23:03 UT
This epicenter is at the seventh node (51.4 degrees) from the major earthquakes
in Kamchatka and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 16OCT2025 23:03:15 9.7N 126.1E MW=6.1 EMSC MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
O: 16OCT2025 23:57:40 9.7N 126.2E mb=4.8 EMSC MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
O: 17OCT2025 04:01:58 10.4N 126.3E ML=4.2 EMSC PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
An M 4.8 aftershock in the area of central Mindanao also continued activity
in that region today. This event was reported by NEIC to have been felt id Davao, Southern Mindanao with intensity III.
O: 16OCT2025 22:11:02 6.9N 127.2E MB=4.8 EMSC PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.7 in Afghanistan was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Afghanistan at Islamabad, Pakistan.
O: 16OCT2025 23:53:37 34.5N 70.8E MB=4.7 EMSC HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.0 in the Andaman Islands, India was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Andaman Islands, India with III in Port Blair, Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
O: 16OCT2025 22:10:25 13.4N 92.5E MB=5.0 EMSC ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.5 in Western Texas was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Western Texas with II in Carlsbad, New Mexico.
This is directly antipodal to an M 4.8 that occurred in the South Indian Ocean
Ridge yesterday.
O: 16OCT2025 22:02:35 32.4N 104.6W ML=3.5 EMSC NEW MEXICO
An earthquake of M 3.1 occurred in San Francisco, California today. This event near local solar
noon occurred during the observance of the great California shakeout day when
citizens are reminded to be aware of the possibility of potentially damaging
earthquakes throughout the State of California. This seems apropo at this
time as there are indications the state could experience a moderate to strong
earthquake in late October to early November, 2025. Today's earthquake was
reported by NEIC to have been felt widely by more than 2000 people responding
the to DYFI USGS alert page. Reports of intensity III shaking came to that
page from California at Daly City, San Francisco, Berkeley, Oakland, Emeryville, Orinda, Santa Rosa, Pacifica, Concord, with II in Moraga, Pinole, San Ramon, Lafayette, El Sobrante, Walnut Creek, Alameda, Los Altos, San Pablo, Alamo, Livermore, Hercules, Pleasant Hill, Martinez, San Leandro, El Cerrito, Colusa, Stockton, Richmond, Alameda, San Bruno, Redwood City, Albany, Larsput and San Leandro among others.
EMSC reported it at M 2.7 and noted moderate shaking in Berkeley, Emeryville, Albany, Piedmont, Oakland, Kensington, Alameda, El Sobrante among others.
Today's earthquake occurred on the Hayward Fault. Experts warn that a strong
earthquake on this fault could cause damage similar to that which occurred
with the Loma Prieta earthquake 36 years ago on October 17. That event caused more than $10
billion in damage while kiling 63 people and destroying much infrastructure.
That earthquake is often referred to as the "World-series earthquake" as it
occurred during the first game of the baseball world series in San Francisco
that year and was televised live from that sports event venue.
Today's M 3.1 may be an aftershock of an M 4.3 near this epicenter on September 22, 2025.
At the time this summary noted:
"For many readers, the most significant earthquake associated with this new moon and
solar eclipse was an M 4.3 in the area of San Francisco, California. NEIC reported
it was felt with intensity up to V in the San Francisco area with more than
22,000 people reporting felt effects to the USGS.
...
Today's earthquake of M 4.3 in San Francisco, California is the strongest
recorded within about 50 km of San Francisco since an M 4.5 two years ago on
October 15, 2019. At the time this summary noted:
"The activity in San Francisco began several hours before local solar midnight
and was probably promoted by strong tidal stresses associated with the full moon
...
The last event in the San Francisco Bay area within about 75 km of today's epicenter
which exceeded M 4.5 occurred on August 24, 2014 when an M 6.0 hit the Napa area.
The last within the San Francisco Bay area was an M 5.6 more than 11 years ago on October 31, 2007." (October 15, 2019, September 22, 2025)
This epicenter is at 101-102 degrees from the recent major earthquake in
Central Philippines and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 16OCT2025 16:23:45 37.9N 122.3W ML=3.1 NEIC SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIF.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.1 in Northern California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Northern California near Hayfork with II in Fort Bragg and Redding.
O: 16OCT2025 17:58:10 40.7N 123.2W ML=2.8 EMSC NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.2 in Southern Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Kodiak, Alaska.
O: 16OCT2025 07:34:15 57.7N 152.5W ML=3.2 EMSC KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
An aftershock of M 3.6 occurred today in the Lake Baykal region of Russia. This
follows an M 4.3 in the same region and epicenter yesterday. While these
events are located near the antipode of the recent Drake Passage event of M 7.8
of October 10, 2025, they are nearly exactly antipodal to the M 7.4 south of
Argentina which occurred on May 2, 2025 and were likely promoted by
energy from both these sources. Data for these event follow. Readers
can determine the antipodality of these events.
O: 15OCT2025 00:48:31 55.1N 111.2E MB=4.3 EMSC LAKE BAYKAL REGION, RUSSIA
O: 16OCT2025 10:38:09 55.0N 111.6E MB=3.6 EMSC LAKE BAYKAL REGION, RUSSIA
O: 02MAY2025 12:58:27 56.8N 68.1W MW=7.4 EMSC DRAKE PASSAGE
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.5 in Coquimbo, Chile was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Coquimbo, Chile at Ovalle.
BMG reported aftershocks of M 5.0 and M 5.5 in Papua New Guinea were felt with intensity up to III in the area(s) of Kab. Sarmi at Pantai, Sarmi, Tor Atas, Bonggo with lesser shaking in Kb. Jayapura, Puncak Jaya, Keerom, Tolikara, Mamberamo.
TODAY'S MAP
Stippled white lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.4 in Mindanao, Philippines of October 10, 2025.
Stippled lavender lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October 10, 2025.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
No tropical cyclones are currently active.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 16, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight at the time of occurrence and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9500 0017 0021 0024 M1.1 (October 16, 2025) 5.3E-03
Drake Passage M 6.3 01:42 UT
9580 0441 0446 0502 C5.2 (October 16, 2025) 6.0E-03
Java M 4.3 04:43 UT
Southern California M 2.0 04:44 UT
Drake Passage M 4.9 04:49 UT
West Chile Rise M 4.8 04:56 UT
Central Peru M 3.7 04:56 UT
9780 0636 0643 0647 C5.5 (October 16, 2025) 3.6E-03
9610 0724 0731 0736 C4.6 (October 16, 2025) 2.7E-03
Kuril Is. M 4.5 07:26 UT
9620 0756 0801 0813 C5.1 (October 16, 2025) 4.5E-03
South SAndwich Is. M 4.7 07:55 UT
9630 0844 0849 0851 C3.3 (October 16, 2025) 1.5E-03
Bolivia M 4.0 08:46 UT
9650 0941 0949 0953 C3.5 (October 16, 2025) 2.8E-03
9790 0953 1005 1014 C5.3 (October 16, 2025) 6.3E-03
Kermadec Is. M 4.9 10:00 UT
9800 1141 1203 1225 C8.4 (October 16, 2025) 1.6E-02
Southern California M 2.4 11:45 UT
9690 1303 1308 1312 C6.0 (October 16, 2025) 3.1E-03
9700 1353 1408 1422 M1.3 (October 16, 2025) 1.7E-02
9720 1559 1606 1608 C4.7 (October 16, 2025) 2.2E-03
New Guinea M 5.0 16:01 UT
9740 1900 1916 1936 M1.1 (October 16, 2025) 1.8E-02
Banda Sea M 4.3 19:12 UT
9770 2026 2035 2040 C4.4 (October 16, 2025) 4.1E-03
Kamchatka M 4.6 20:30 UT
9810 2040 2043 2046 C5.8 (October 16, 2025) 2.4E-03
Kuril Is. M 4.1 20:44 UT
9830 2238 2254 2302 C5.5 (October 16, 2025) 6.4E-03
Mindanao M 6.1 23:03 UT
9840 2312 2319 2328 M1.0 (October 16, 2025) 8.3E-03
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: geomagnetic storms October 17-18 active October 19. Solar M-flare chance: 60% X-class: 10% proton storm: 10%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 4 2 3 10:00 2 132 161
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 17, 2025 at 08:40:44 UT (#251017A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 14, 2025 at 21:54:41 UT (#251014D). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>19.2 was assigned to this GRB.
An earthquake of M 4.6 in New Guinea was closely associated with this GRB and occurred at 21:58 UT
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 14, 2025 at 00:28:30 UT (#251014A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
An earthquake of M 4.0 in Mindanao was closely associated with this GRB and occurred at 00:30 UT
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 11, 2025 at 07:08:22 UT (#251011B). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
October 16, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
The strongest earthquake of the day was an M 6.5-6.6 in the region of northern New Guinea.
NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III in Aberpura but also noted it
may have been damaging in the broader epicentral area. BMG reported intensity
up to VII in the epicentral area. The mainshock was preceded by several
foreshocks including an M 4.4. Today's event follows an M 6.1 located west
of today's epicenter in New Guinea which occurred on September 18, 2025. The last earthquake
with M>=6.3 within about 200 km of today's epicenter was an M 6.3 on August 12, 2025.
At the time this summary noted:
"A strong earthquake hit the region of Papua New Guinea today near Abepura with M 6.3.
NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Aberpura, Papua, Indonesia.
BMG reported intensity up to VI-VII in the epicentral area.
This area is at 103 degrees from southern California and major earthquakes
near this epicenter have often been followed within about a month by significant
seismicity in the Los Angeles or southern California area." (December 30, 2023, August 12, 2025)
The last earthquake of M>=6.6 in this region of New Guinea wa when an M 7.0 occurred
on July 27, 2015. At the time this summary noted:
"The Los Angeles area of Southern California is located at 103 degrees from
this epicenter in New Guinea. Several light earthquake occurred in that area
today. Seismic energy is concentrated at this distance following major earthquakes
due to refraction and reflection off the core-mantle boundary to this
distance zone. Seismicity is often seen to increase at this distance following
major earthquakes. For example, the two great earthquake in this area of
Papua New Guinea in the past 50 years occurred on January 10, 1971 (M 8.1)
and on September 12, 1979 (M 8.0). These were followed by earthquakes in
San Fernando, Southern California on February 9, 1971 (M 6.7) and October 15, 1979
in Baja California (M 7.0) respectively. Both occurred about a month after
the major Papua earthquake and were both highly damaging. While seismicity
in southern California is likely to increase in the coming days the most
likely time for a significant regional earthquake appears to be around May 4-8,
2013 on the basis of this historical context." (April 6, 2013)
In the previous issue of this summary this had been further contemplated as:
"Recent enhanced seismicity near 103 degrees from major events in the Drake Passage
and the Philippines has included a significant swarm in Los Angeles, California;
an M 2.6 in upstate New York; a strong swarm in Ethiopia and moderate events
in New Guinea and the Solomon Islands among others. This suggest that triggering
from these sources is alive and energetic at this time. Enhanced seismicity
at this and other nodal distance from these event, and as aftershocks
in the major event zones is deemed by this summary to be likely to continue
for at least another week despite the current global seismic quiet." (October 15, 2025
This epicenter is at the sixth node (60 degrees) from Kamchatka and the South
Geomagnetic Equator and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 16OCT2025 05:48:55 2.2S 138.9W ML=6.5 NEIC PAPUA NEW GUINEA
O: 16OCT2025 05:48:53 1.9S 139.0W ML=6.6 BMG PAPUA NEW GUINEA
O: 16OCT2025 01:48:02 2.1S 139.6W ML=4.4 NEIC PAPUA NEW GUINEA
An M 6.3 also occurred as a regional aftershock in the area of the Drake Passage.
NEIC reported it may have been felt lightly in the epicentral area.
This event may have been promoted by a moderately strong M4.6 class solar
flare while this epicenter in the Drake Passage was at local solar midnight -
a prime time for SFE from strong flares to promote seismicity.
The last solar flare of higher energy class than today's M4.6 occurred as an M 6.4
on September, 28, 2025. Today's flare occurred with maximum flux within
minutes of local solar midnight of the M 6.3 in the Drake Passage and probably helped set up the
later event of M 6.3 today. It may also have set up the event in New Guinea
today as that epicenter was within minutes of local solar noon at the time of
maximum of this flare.
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9150 0349 0415 0436 M4.8 (October 15, 2025) 8.9E-02
O: 16OCT2025 01:42:32 59.9S 61.6W ML=6.3 NEIC DRAKE PASSAGE
A moderately strong earthquake of M 5.6 occurred today in Coquimbo Chile. NEIC reported it was felt with slight damage and intensity VI in Coquimbo at Ovalle; IV in Coquimbo, III in Vicuna, La Serena and in Santiago and Valparaiso and Mendoza, Argentina. Also reported felt as far as Copiapo, Atacama about 400 km to the north of the epicenter.
EMSC reported major shaking in Coquimbo, La Serena, Vicuna, Quillota, Llaillay, Vina del Mar, Limache, Valparaiso, Chicureo Abajo, Lo Prado, Providencia, Santiago among others.
The last earthquake in Coquimbo, Chile within about 200 km of this epicenter
with M>=5.6 occurred on September 6, 2023 with M 6.2. At the time this summary
noted:
"An earthquake of M 5.8 hit this region of Coquimbo on May 2, 2021 but the last
event of M>=6.2 in Coquimbo within about 200 km of today's epicenter was
an M 6.3 exactly three years ago on September 6, 2020 but the last event in the
area of significantly larger magnitude was an M 6.7 on January 20, 2019. At that time this summary
noted in regard to the history of the area:
"The last earthquake in the Coquimbo area of central Chile within about 200 km
of today's M 6.7 with M>=6.7 occurred on November 11, 2015 with M 6.9. This was
a regional aftershock about 200 km north of a great M 8.3 in the Coquimbo area which
occurred September 16, 2015." (January 20, 2019, September 6, 2023)
This epicenter is at the 12th node (30.0 degrees) from the Drake Passage
and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 15OCT2025 11:43:39 30.7S 71.6W ML=5.6 NEIC COQUIMBO, CHILE
An aftershock of M 5.4 also followed an M 5.9 in Micronesia today.
When the mainshock occurred on October 13, 2025 this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.9 in the State of Yap, Micronesia. NEIC reported it was probably felt with intensity up to III in the epicentral area.
This is the strongest earthquake in Micronesia within about 200 km of this epicenter
since an M5.9 on July 4, 1996, the largest and only such event in Micronesia
in at least 35 years. Like the recent major earthquakes in New Guinea and
the Philippines it occurred near the longitude of maximum stress with
the full moon of October 9 at a time when a strong geomagnetic storm was
maximizing and is at the fifth node (72 degrees) from the South Geomagnetic
Pole and was probably promoted by energies from those events asit
lies near the geomagnetic equator. This area south to New Guinea is likely
to experience more events of M>6 in the next several days. One region
which is especially vulnerable at this time is eastern New Guinea where
several large earthquakes have occurred in the past month. This epicenter
at 3S 139E is located on the geomagnetic equator and could be triggered
by one of the upcoming geomagnetic storms near local solar noon.
An earthquake of M 6.6 hit this area of New Guinea on September 18, 2025
after several years of regional inactivity." (October 13, 2025)
O: 15OCT2025 10:22:09 7.2N 141.5E ML=5.4 NEIC MICRONESIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.4 in Hawaii was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Hawaii with III in Naalehu, Pahala, Kailua kona and Captain Cook and II in Waikoloa and Kealakekua.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.8 in Northern California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Northern California in Yuba City, Red Bluff and Sacramento.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.4 in the Kermadec Islands, New Zealand was not felt in the area(s) of the Kermadec Islands, New Zealand
O: 15OCT2025 13:07:01 34.0S 178.8W ML=5.4 NEIC SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.0 in Crete, Greece was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Crete, Greece in Analipsi, Koutsouras, Sitia, Agios Nikolaos, Arvi, Irakleion, Chania, and in Ula, Turkey.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.3 in Atacama, Chile was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Atacama, Chile in Copiapo.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.6 in Luzon, Philippines was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Luzon at Mabalacat City, Quiapo, Pasay, Pateros.
TODAY'S MAP
Stippled white lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.4 in Mindanao, Philippines of October 10, 2025.
Stippled lavender lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October 10, 2025.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
No tropical cyclones are currently active.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 15, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight at the time of occurrence and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9090 0124 0144 0206 C7.7 (October 15, 2025) 1.5E-02
Alaska Peninsula M 3.5 01:24 UT
9120 0310 0314 0317 C5.6 (October 15, 2025) 2.7E-03
9140 0341 0345 0347 C9.1 (October 15, 2025) 3.3E-03
Mid-Indian Ridge M 4.8 03:45 UT
9150 0349 0415 0436 M4.8 (October 15, 2025) 8.9E-02
Drake Passage 10-16 M 6.3
9170 0705 0718 0726 M3.7 (October 15, 2025) 2.5E-02
9190 0818 0831 0837 C3.8 (October 15, 2025) 4.1E-03
9210 0943 0954 1002 C3.4 (October 15, 2025) 3.3E-03
Afghanistan M 4.2 10:07 UT
9220 1020 1022 1033 C4.8 (October 15, 2025) 3.4E-03
Yap M 5.4 10:22 UT
Kamchatka M 4.5 10:26 UT
9230 1214 1219 1223 C3.4 (October 15, 2025) 1.4E-03
Sumba M 3.9 12:15 UT
9240 1300 1307 1310 C2.4 (October 15, 2025) 1.5E-03
Kermadec Is. M 5.4 13:07 UT
9250 1338 1345 1352 C2.7 (October 15, 2025) 2.1E-03
Atacama M 4.5 13:38 UT
9270 1401 1410 1441 M1.1 (October 15, 2025) 1.9E-02
9380 1802 1807 1809 C8.3 (October 15, 2025) 3.5E-03
Luzon M 4.7 18:09 UT
9400 1934 1939 1945 C5.1 (October 15, 2025) 4.6E-03
Baja M 3.3 19:38 UT
9410 1945 1949 1952 C5.1 (October 15, 2025) 2.6E-03
9480 2155 2228 2305 M2.7 (October 15, 2025) 8.5E-02
Atacama M 4.4 22:12 UT
9490 2337 2345 2352 M2.4 (October 15, 2025) 1.9E-02
Mindanao M 4.7 23:46 UT
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: unsettled October 16-18 possible geomagnetic storm October 16-18. Solar M-flare chance: 60% X-class: 10% proton storm: 10%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 8 9 6 15:00 3 106 162
October 15, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
It was a relatively quiet day in global seismicity today. Significant
seismicity occurred in several antipodal areas, however. These included
a highly unusual earthquake of M 3.9 in Central Brazil, in the antipodal
region of the recent major events in the Philippines and an M 4.3 in the Lake
Baykal region of Siberia, Russia in the antipodal region of the M 7.8 of
October 10, 2025. A third unusal antipodal event occurred in the area of
the South Indian Ocean. This is exactly antipodal to continuing activity
in the Permian Basin of western Texas where an M 4.3 occurred on October 12, 2025.
and an M 4.0 occurred today (October 14, 2025) within minutes of local solar noon.
The earthquake in east-central Brazil in the Bahia State of M 3.9 was
probably felt lightly in the epicentral area but no felt reports have
as of this writing been published for this event. This is an unusual
earthquake as no earthquakes of M>=3.9 have been catalogued within about
300 km of this epicenter in the past 35 years. The only earthquakes
reported in the region of M>=3 also occurred more than 35 years ago.
So that this unique earthquake occurred days after a series of major
antipodal earthquake in the Philippines is probably significant.
This earthquake, in addition to being near the antipode to the Philippines
is located at 104-107 degrees from both the geomagnetic north and south poles
and is in the Southern Geomagnetic anomaly zone and can be influenced
by strong geomagnetic effects.
O: 14OCT2025 13:14:17 12.8S 45.5W MR=3.9 EMSC BAHIA, BRAZIL
O: 10OCT2025 01:43:59 7.3N 126.7E Mw=7.4 EMSC MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
O: 30SEP2025 13:59:43 11.3N 124.4E Mw=7.1 EMSC LEYTE, PHILIPPINES
The earthquake of M 4.3 in the Lake Baykal Region of Russia occurred in
an active seismic region. Previously a series of moderate earthquakes in
and surrounding the antipode of the Drake Passage event of M 7.4 were
documented in this region of Russia over the several weeks following that
event. For example an M 4.6 occurred two weeks after the M 7.5 of August 22, 2025
within about 300 km of the antipode of that event. At the time this summary noted:
"It was a relatively quiet day in the world of earthquakes today. The most notable
earthquake in the world was not big, not deadly and not spectacular. Still it was
perhaps more important in its implications than many other more new-worthy events.
This earthquake occurred with M 4.6 near Chara in Shaka, Siberia, Russia.
Why is this earthquake notable? It is located very at 178 degrees from the Drake
Passa near the exact antipode of the M 7.5 in that event in the Drake Passage of August 22, 2025, two weeks ago with the
last new moon alignment. Today's event in Siberia occurred near local solar
midnight and may have been promoted by tidal stresses associated with the
full moon of September 7, 2025.
...
The last earthquake within about 200 km of today's epicenter in Siberia with M>4.6 occurred
as an M 4.6 on May 18, 2025. The last with significantly larger magnitude in this
area was an M 5.1 on September 28, 2019." (September 6, 2025)
The last earthquake of M>=4.3 in the Lake Baykal area of Russia within
about 200 km of today's epicenter occurred as an M 4.4 on October 20, 2024.
The Drake Passage has experienced several large earthquakes in the past
several months and aftershocks of M>=6 in the region are still considered
by this summary to be very likely in the next week especially with a strong
geomagnetic storm or solar flare.
O: 15OCT2025 00:48:31 55.1N 111.2E MB=4.3 EMSC LAKE BAYKAL REGION, RUSSIA
O: 10OCT2025 20:29:22 60.2S 61.8W Mw=7.7 EMSC DRAKE PASSAGE
The earthquake of M 4.0 in Western Texas today was reported by NEIC to have
been felt with intensity II from Fort Stockton, Texas to Carlsbad, New Mexico.
The last earthquake of M>=4 within about 200 km of today's epicenter occurred
on May 4, 2025 with M 5.4 and today's event may be an aftershock of that event. It was described
in this summary at the time as:
"A moderately strong earthquake of M 5.4 also occurred in western Texas today.
NEIC reported this earthquake was felt in Texas with V in Pyote, Dell City and IV in Denver City, Balmorhea, Gail, Grandfalls, Kermit, Gardendale, Odessa, Pecos, Anthony, Canutillo, El Paso; in New Mexico at Santa Teresa, Mesquite, Roswell, Carlsbad, Dexter, Haverman, Lake Arthur, Cloudcroft, Hondo and Lincoln and as far as Arizona. Intensity II-III was felt throughout most of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico. It was also reported as far as New Jersey and Maryland.
Aftershocks were reported felt with intensity up to III in Texas at Odessa, El Paso, Casa Grande, and in New Mexico at Roswell, Artesia, Hagerman, Carlsbad." May 1, 2025)
The M 4.8 within about 50 km from the Antipode of the Texas event in the Mid-Indian
Ridge today is an unusual event which was not reported felt in this remote area.
The last earthquake of M>=4.8 recorded by NEIC within about 200 km of this epicenter
on the Mid-Indian Ridge occurred as an M 4.9 on April 3, 2024 with an M 4.9 on November 14, 2009.
No earthquakes of larger magnitude have been recorded in this area of the Mid-Indian
Ridge in more than 35 years. This epicenter in the Mid-Indian Ridge is at the sixth node (60 degrees)
from the recent major earthquakes in the Philippines and was likely promoted
by energy from that source. The earthquake in Texas is at 120 degrees (node 3)
from the Philippines quakes. Other earthquakes today at this distance from the Philippines included
an M 4.8 in Revilla Gigedo Islands, Mexico.
O: 14OCT2025 19:19:12 31.6N 104.4W mb=4.0 EMSC WESTERN TEXAS
O: 15OCT2025 03:45:13 31.6S 76.7E MB=4.8 EMSC MID-INDIAN RIDGE
Recent enhanced seismicity near 103 degrees from major events in the Drake Passage
and the Philippines has included a significant swarm in Los Angeles, California;
an M 2.6 in upstate New York; a strong swarm in Ethiopia and moderate events
in New Guinea and the Solomon Islands among others. This suggest that triggering
from these sources is alive and energetic at this time. Enhanced seismicity
at this and other nodal distance from these event, and as aftershocks
in the major event zones is deemed by this summary to be likely to continue
for at least another week despite the current global seismic quiet.
An earthquake of M 5.2 in Northern Chile occurred in the Tarapaca region of Chile. NEIC reported
it was felt with intensity IV in Iquique, Tarapaca.
O: 14OCT2025 17:10:17 20.2S 69.0W MW=5.2 EMSC TARAPACA, CHILE
P: 17OCT2025 176399 20.0S 69.0W 4.0-5.9 BAAAA So. Peru/Bolivia
A moderate earthquake of M 4.0 occurred in southern Alaska today. NEIC reported
it was felt with intensity III in Alaska at Glennallen, Girdwood, Palmer, Anchorage and II in Valdez, Eagle River.
O: 15OCT2025 03:30:44 61.8N 147.5W ML=4.0 EMSC SOUTHERN ALASKA
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.0 in Romania was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Romania in Micula, Satu Mare, Paulesti, Baia Mare, Negresti-Oas.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.6 in Nepal was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Nepal at Dhangadhi.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.0 in Western Turkey was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Western Turkey in Sindirgi, Bigadic, Akhisar, Soma, Balikesir, Demirci, Salihli, Odemis, Izmir among others.
TODAY'S MAP
Stippled white lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.4 in Mindanao, Philippines of October 10, 2025.
Stippled lavender lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October 10, 2025.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS LORENZO 2025-10-15 00:00 UT 23.1N 42.5W 35 kts North Mid-Atlantic
Tropical Storm Lorenzo continued in the northern Mid-Atlantic today with winds up to 35 kts. It is expected to track to the north and east over the next several days and to dissipate October 15. It could enhance regional seismicity on the Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge during this period. The antipode is at 23S 138E in an area of western Australia where some seismic enhancement is possible.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 14, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight at the time of occurrence and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
8510 0035 0041 0044 M2.0 (October 14, 2025) 6.3E-03
Northern California M 2.0 00:40 UT
8530 0258 0304 0319 C4.2 (October 14, 2025) 4.8E-03
Bolivia M 4.2 03:01 UT
Xinjiang, China M 4.6 13:15 UT
8540 0326 0336 0340 C2.5 (October 14, 2025) 2.7E-03
Honshu M 4.6 03:34 UT
New York M 2.7 03:39 UT
Central California M 2.2 03:43 UT
8970 0403 0414 0424 C3.4 (October 14, 2025) 4.4E-03
Mindanao M 4.3 04:06 UT
Easter Island M 5.1 04:24 UT
9000 0537 0547 0602 C3.9 (October 14, 2025) 5.5E-03
8630 0836 0846 0855 C6.0 (October 14, 2025) 5.5E-03
San Francisco M 2.4 08:44 UT
Tarapaca M 3.6 08:36 UT
Xinjiang M 3.6 08:56 UT
New Ireland M 4.6 08:57 UT
Mindanao M 4.4 08:58 UT
8680 1102 1110 1121 C3.3 (October 14, 2025) 3.5E-03
8710 1216 1222 1227 C2.7 (October 14, 2025) 1.6E-03
New Britain M 4.1 12:33 UT
8720 1238 1247 1256 M2.0 (October 14, 2025) 1.2E-02
Antofagasta M 3.8 12:42 UT
Bahia, Brazil M 3.9 13:14 UT
Kuril Is. M 4.4 13:05 UT
8730 1318 1323 1326 C8.2 (October 14, 2025) 4.1E-03
8750 1448 1455 1504 C3.6 (October 14, 2025) 3.4E-03
Oaxaca M 4.3 15:10 UT
8840 1523 1540 1549 C5.0 (October 14, 2025) 7.2E-03
Afghanistan M 4.3 15:23 UT
Santa Cruz Is. M 4.6 15:42 UT
8790 1635 1640 1646 C3.2 (October 14, 2025) 2.2E-03
8810 1657 1711 1732 C3.7 (October 14, 2025) 7.9E-03
Tarapaca M 5.2 17:10 UT
Mindanao M 4.9 17:23 UT
Northern California M 2.3 17:03 UT
8850 1732 1743 1746 C3.8 (October 14, 2025) 4.3E-03
Turkey M 4.0 17:33 UT
8860 1746 1753 1757 C6.5 (October 14, 2025) 3.9E-03
8890 1926 1943 1955 C7.0 (October 14, 2025) 8.3E-03
Mindanao M 4.8 19:26 UT
Nebal M 4.6 19:24 UT
8900 2028 2036 2045 M3.1 (October 14, 2025) 2.0E-02
Ethiopia M 4.2 20:23 UT
Michoacan M 3.4 20:28 UT
8930 2132 2143 2204 C7.8 (October 14, 2025) 1.3E-02
New Guinea M 4.6 21:48 UT
9010 2204 2207 2209 C6.3 (October 14, 2025) 2.9E-03
Timor M 4.3 22:10 UT
8950 2251 2257 2301 C3.4 (October 14, 2025) 1.9E-03
Panay, Philippines M 4.4 22:49 UT
9030 2329 2342 2353 C4.3 (October 14, 2025) 5.6E-03
Izu Is. M 4.5 23:29 UT
Leyte M 4.3 23:32 UT
9040 2356 0005 0016 C5.3 (October 14, 2025) 6.1E-03
Southern Peru M 4.2 00:05 UT
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: unsettled October 15-17 possible geomagnetic storm October 16-18. Solar M-flare chance: 60% X-class: 10% proton storm: 10%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 8 9 6 15:00 3 108 154
October 14, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
Two moderate swarms of light earthquakes occurred in the region of California
since the last issue of this summary. The first occurred in the Mammoth Lakes
region north of Los Angeles while the second occurred in Los Angeles center
near Gardena later in the day. The last significant swarms of quakes in
the Mammoth Lakes area occurred in mid-June, 2022; November 12-13, 2023 and
November 27, 2024 (the last such swarm) each containing at least three events of M>=2.3.
The last such swarm without a significant mainshock in central Los Angeles City within about 30 km of today's
swarm with more than 3 events of M>=2 occurred April 5, 2021 and included
two foreshocks to an M 4.0 mainshock which was followed by more than 15 aftershocks
of M>=2. The swarm today in Los Angeles could be considered precursory
to a larger event, but in any case must be considered a significant
seismic event for central Los Angeles. This summary has been following
the activity in Los Angeles with interest over the past two issues and
had expected significant regional activity in Los Angeles at this time as
reported, for example, in the previous issue of this summary.
"Another seismic area which is near 103 degrees and at the shadow zone boundary
from the Drake Passage is in California most notably in southern California.
A set of two light earthquakes were felt in the Los Angeles, California area today.
An M 2.1 under the city center was reported by NEIC to have been felt with intensity III in Monterey Park and Los Angeles with II in Alhambra, Los Angeles.
This event occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and was probably
promoted by tidal and/or geomagnetic effects which maximize at this hour
in areas of high local stress. This epicenter is near 104 degrees from
the series of major earthquakes in Mindanao and Leyte, Philippines and
from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage and may have been promoted by energy
from those sources.
O: 12OCT2025 08:24:33 34.1N 118.3W MB=2.1 NEIC LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA
Earthquakes of M 2.6 and M 2.3 were also felt today in eastern Los Angeles earlier in the day.
NEIC reported they were felt in California at Redlands, Mentone and Yucaipa with intensity II and II in Loma Linda and Victorville and in Riverside, California. The stronger of these
occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and the later event occurred
within several minutes of local solar noon and were probably promoted by
tidal and/or geomagnetic stresses following the strong geomagnetic storm
several days ago. A geomagnetic storm was in progress when this event occurred.
This epicenter, like the later event near local solar midnight was near 103-104
degrees from the Philippines and Drake Passage earthquakes of the past several
days and was probably promoted by energy from those sources." (October 12, 2025)
O: 11OCT2025 19:56:20 34.1N 117.3W MB=2.3 NEIC GREATER LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA
O: 11OCT2025 09:05:00 34.0N 117.2W MB=2.6 NEIC GREATER LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA
These two earthquakes in Los Angeles illustrate that the area is under considerable
stress as it seem a minor tidal stress increase with an aligned sun is
able to to trigger the. The confluence of this along with the distance near
103 degrees from four major earthquakes (3 in the Philippines and one in the
Drake Passage) at the time of a building nor'easter on the east coast of the
U.S. suggest that this activity in California could continue for several
days and could include a moderate to large earthquake. The danger is not
limited to the area of Southern California as major far-field effects from
the Philippines and from the Drake Passage related to reflected and refracted
seismic waves from the core-mantle boundary near 103 degrees cover much of
California north to San Francisco and northeast to Idaho and Montana. All
these areas could see enhanced seismicity at this time." (October 12, 2025)
The swarm in Los Angeles of October 13, 2025 has thus far included five earthquakes
of M>=2.0, the most in a swarm in the area (not including aftershocks) since a series
on September 20, 2016 when a swarm of five events hit the region with M>=2.
At the time this summary noted:
"The largest earthquake in California today was an M 3.0 in the Gardena area of
NEIC reported this earthquake of M 3.0 in Southern California was felt with intensity III-IV in the area(s) of Los Angeles, Gardena, Hawthorne, Inglewood, Torrance, Compton, Lawndale, Carson, Lynwood, Redondo Beach, El Segundo, Hermosa Beach, Huntington Park, Manhattan Beach, South Gate, Bell, Culver City, Maywood, Lomita, Paramount, Downey, and in general within about 20 km of the epicenter.
Foreshocks and aftershocks were also felt in the same area. The last earthquake
of M>=3 within about 50 km of this epicenter was an M 3.2 on March 28, 2016." (September 20, 2016)
Today's swarm in Los Angeles may have been triggered by SFE associated with
a moderately strong solar flare. This flare reached maximum output around
13:15 UT, just as the swarm in Los Angeles began. Both lasted for about 15 minutes.
Preliminary data from SWPC for this flare follow:
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
8110 0330 0402 0404 C2.3 (October 13, 2025) 2.1E-03*
8360 1304 1318 1339 M1.2 (October 13, 2025) 2.1E-02
Today's activity in Los Angeles also occurred as a strong geomagnetic
storm was striking the area with K-index 6 at high latitudes and may
have been promoted by effects from that storm.
O: 13OCT2025 13:23:43 33.9N 118.3W ML=2.1 EMSC GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALI
O: 13OCT2025 13:26:18 33.9N 118.3W ML=2.0 EMSC GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIF.
O: 13OCT2025 13:30:00 33.9N 118.3W ML=2.1 EMSC GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIF.
O: 13OCT2025 13:48:02 33.9N 118.3W ML=2.4 EMSC GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIF.
O: 13OCT2025 15:38:20 33.9N 118.3W ML=2.1 EMSC GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIF.
O: 12OCT2025 08:24:33 34.0N 118.3W ML=2.1 EMSC GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIF.
The swarm in Mammoth Lakes, California today included four earthquakes of M>=2.0
The last time there a swarm in this area with this many such events (without a mainshock)
was when a similar number of events in Mammoth Lakes area occurred around July 1-3, 2025.
Like the events in Los Angeles later in the day, the swarm in Mammoth
Lakes also appears to have been promoted by a moderate C7.0 solar flare (see above).
O: 13OCT2025 03:31:38 37.4N 118.9W MD=2.6 EMSC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 13OCT2025 03:35:14 37.4N 118.9W MD=2.4 EMSC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 13OCT2025 03:26:10 37.5N 118.8W MD=2.3 EMSC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 13OCT2025 03:35:41 37.5N 118.9W MD=2.1 EMSC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
A light earthquake of M 3.4 was reported by Geoscience Australia to have occurred
today southwest of Kununurra, Western Australia. At least 20 people reported feeling
this event. This epicenter is near the antipode of the eye of Tropical Storm
Lorenzo in the Northern Mid-Atlantic at the time of occurrence. It is possible
it was promoted by energy from that source.
O: 13OCT2025 15:59:46 16.0S 128.7E ML=3.4 GA SW OF KUMUNURRA, WESTERN AUSTRALIA
An M 2.6 was widely felt in upstate New York today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III in New York at Chazym Mooers Forks, West Chazy, Mooers, Saranac Lake, Chateaugay, Champlain, Rouses Point, Altona, Bloomingdale, Colton, Schuyler Falls, Malone, in Lacolle Quebec, Canada; and in Vermont at Milton, Alburgh, North Hero, Shelburne, Isle la Motte, and with II in New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and in Ontario, Canada.
This is the strongest earthquake within about 100 km of this epicenter since
an M 2.8 more than a year ago on July 29, 2024. At the time this summary noted:
"NEIC reported this earthquake of M 2.8-3.0 in Quebec, Canada was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Quebec, Canada at Ormstown, Canada.
It was also felt with intensity IV in Mooers Forks, New York and II-III in New York at Champlain, Churubusco, Ellevburg Center, Rouses Point and in Quebec, Canada at Sainte-Martine, Saint-Remi, Montreal. EMSC reported moderate shaking and a loud earthquake noise in Canada at Franklin, Sainte-Clotilde, Chateauguay, and Montreal among others." (July 29, 2024)
It is also of some interest that the event in New York on July 29, 2024 coincided
with an M 4.9 in Los Angeles of the same date. The July 29, 2024 summary noted
this as:
"A moderate earthquake shook southern California today with M 4.9. NEIC and the press
reported it was felt with intensity up to VI in Barstow and Los Angeles areas.
EMSC reported moderate shaking with a rolling motion with earthquake noises in California at Fort Irwin,
Helendale, Victorville, Apple Valley, Hesperia, Big Bear City, Adelanto, Cedar Glen, Yucca Valley, Pinon Hills, Edwards, Trona, Pinon Hills, Morongo Valley, San Bernardino, Searles Valley, Redlands, Yucaipa, Ridgecrest, California City, Loma Linda, Twentynine Palms, Beaumont, Fontana and as far as Bakersfield and Simi Valley more than 200 km from the epicenter.
It occurred within minutes of local solar noon and was probably promoted
by strong geomagnetic and tidal stresses which maximize near this hour.
A number of smaller aftershocks were felt with light intensity in the Barstow
area. This is a remote area of southern California and no major damage
was reported with this earthquake. Today's earthquake of M 4.9 is the strongest
recorded in Southern California within about 100 km of today's epicenter since an M 5.1
on December 6, 2008. " (July 29, 2024)
Today's New York epicenter, like that in Los Angeles is located near 104 degrees from the
M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October 10 and like those events in Los Angeles, California may have been promoted by energy
from that source.
It may also have been promoted by a C2.5 solar flare (8540) as it occurred
near the maximum output of that flare. Data on this flare from SWPC follow:
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
8540 0326 0336 0340 C2.5 (October 14, 2025) 2.7E-03
Honshu M 4.6 03:34 UT
New York M 2.7 03:39 UT
Central California M 2.2 03:43 UT
O: 14OCT2025 03:39:25 44.9N 73.5W ML=2.7 EMSC NEW YORK
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.9 in the State of Yap, Micronesia. NEIC reported it was probably felt with intensity up to III in the epicentral area.
This is the strongest earthquake in Micronesia within about 200 km of this epicenter
since an M5.9 on July 4, 1996, the largest and only such event in Micronesia
in at least 35 years. Like the recent major earthquakes in New Guinea and
the Philippines it occurred near the longitude of maximum stress with
the full moon of October 9 at a time when a strong geomagnetic storm was
maximizing and is at the fifth node (72 degrees) from the South Geomagnetic
Pole and was probably promoted by energies from those events asit
lies near the geomagnetic equator. This area south to New Guinea is likely
to experience more events of M>6 in the next several days. One region
which is especially vulnerable at this time is eastern New Guinea where
several large earthquakes have occurred in the past month. This epicenter
at 3S 139E is located on the geomagnetic equator and could be triggered
by one of the upcoming geomagnetic storms near local solar noon.
An earthquake of M 6.6 hit this area of New Guinea on September 18, 2025
after several years of regional inactivity.
O: 13OCT2025 11:11:00 7.3N 141.6E MW=5.9 EMSC STATE OF YAP, MICRONESIA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.1 in Southern Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern Alaska at Seward, Anchor Point, Soldotna, Homer, Anchorage and Eagle River.
O: 13OCT2025 16:51:16 60.2N 153.8W ML=4.1 EMSC SOUTHERN ALASKA
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.7 in Pakistan was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Pakistan in Hunza.
TODAY'S MAP
Stippled white lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.4 in Mindanao, Philippines of October 10, 2025.
Stippled lavender lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October 10, 2025.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS LORENZO 2025-10-14 00:00 UT 20.2N 42.6W 60 kts North Mid-Atlantic
Tropical Storm Lorenzo continued in the northern Mid-Atlantic today with winds up to 60 kts. It is expected to track to the north and east over the next several days and is expected to dissipate on October 15. It could enhance regional seismicity on the Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge during this period. The antipode is at 20S 138E in an area western Australia where some seismic enhancement is possible.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 13, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
8080 0002 0013 0017 C6.4 (October 13, 2025) 5.3E-03
Kuril Is. M 5.6 13:01 UT
Coquimbo M 4.4 01:11 UT
Kamchatka M 4.6 01:21 UT
8090 0017 0036 0051 C9.3 (October 13, 2025) 1.7E-02
Kamchatka M 4.8 01:21 UT
Coquimbo M 4.9 01:28 UT
British Columbia M 3.2, 2.9, 2.9, 2.7 01:51 UT
8110 0353 0402 0404 C2.3 (October 13, 2025) 2.1E-03
8120 0404 0413 0419 C5.8 (October 13, 2025) 4.2E-03
8140 0459 0526 0545 M1.9 (October 13, 2025) 3.5E-02
8210 0642 0646 0649 C4.1 (October 13, 2025) 3.0E-03
8240 0649 0654 0700 C7.6 (October 13, 2025) 4.6E-03
Bali Sea M 4.9 07:10 UT
Argentina M 4.5 07:03 UT
8250 0721 0730 0736 C5.7 (October 13, 2025) 5.0E-03
Bali Sea M 2.7, 2.6, 2.5 07:20 UT
Virgin Islands M 3.4 07:27 UT
8280 0739 0747 0757 C9.8 (October 13, 2025) 8.8E-03
8290 0855 0919 0931 M2.7 (October 13, 2025) 3.2E-02
Loyalty Is. M 4.5 08:59 UT
Solomon Is. M 4.9 09:10 UT
8300 1032 1047 1055 C9.5 (October 13, 2025) 7.8E-03
Antofagasta M 4.3 10:52 UT
State of Yap M 5.9 11:11 UT
8340 1253 1302 1304 C3.5 (October 13, 2025) 3.3E-03
Crete M 3.5 12:55 UT
Azores M 3.7 12:59 UT
8360 1304 1318 1339 M1.2 (October 13, 2025) 2.1E-02
Los Angeles CA. M 2.1, M 2.1, M 2.0 M 2.3 13:23, 13:26 13:30 UT
South Is. NZ. M 4.0 13:21 UT
8370 1536 1543 1556 C2.6 (October 13, 2025) 2.7E-03
Los Angeles CA. M 2.1 15:38 UT
8380 1558 1602 1605 C3.3 (October 13, 2025) 1.4E-03
Mindanao M 3.8 15:58 UT
Kashmir M 4.7 15:58 UT
Western Australia M 3.4 15:59 UT
8390 1639 1653 1659 C7.2 (October 13, 2025) 5.0E-03
Tonga M 4.6 16:40 UT
Southern Alaska M 4.1 16:51 UT
Coast of No. California M 2.7 16:47 UT
8400 1712 1717 1720 C2.1 (October 13, 2025) 1.1E-03
Mindanao M 4.4 17:18 UT
8430 1804 1814 1826 C3.0 (October 13, 2025) 3.4E-03
Chiapas M 4.2 18:14 UT
8440 1848 1859 1901 C6.1 (October 13, 2025) 5.1E-03
Kuril Is. M 4.5 18:49 UT
Sumatra M 3.2 18:49 UT
Southern California M 2.3 18.58 UT
8450 1901 1908 1913 C8.0 (October 13, 2025) 5.9E-03
8460 2048 2055 2114 C1.6 (October 13, 2025) 2.9E-03
8470 2114 2121 2127 C1.5 (October 13, 2025) 1.4E-03
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: unsettled October 14-16. Solar M-flare chance: 40% X-class: 10% proton storm: 10%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 23 36 17 13:00 6 122 141
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 7, 2025 at 19:43:06 UT (#251007B). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
An M 2.1 earthquake in southern Texas occurred at 19:45 UT
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 7, 2025 at 19:36:58 UT (#251007A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
An M 3.6 earthquake in Veracruz Mexico occurred at 19:38 UT
October 13, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
A swarm of light earthquakes occurred in the Mammoth Lakes area of California
today. The last significant swarms of quakes in
the Mammoth Lakes area occurred in mid-June, 2022; November 12-13, 2023 and
November 27, 2024 (the last such swarm) each containing at least three events of M>=2.3.
This swarm appears to have been promoted by solar flare 8110 and 8120 (C2.3 and C5.8)
which data from SWPC appear below:
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
8110 0330 0402 0404 C2.3 (October 13, 2025) 2.1E-03 *
8120 0404 0413 0419 C5.8 (October 13, 2025) 4.2E-03 *
The swarm in Mammoth Lakes, California today included four earthquakes of M>=2.0
The last time there a swarm in this area with this many such events (without a mainshock)
was when a similar number of events in Mammoth Lakes area occurred around July 1-3, 2025.
Like the events in Los Angeles later in the day, the swarm in Mammoth
Lakes also appears to have been promoted by a moderate C7.0 solar flare (see above).
These epicenters are at 103-104 degrees from recent major quakes in Leyte and Mindanao, Philippines and at 107 degrees from the Drake
Passage M 7.8 of October 10 and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 13OCT2025 03:31:38 37.4N 118.9W MD=2.6 EMSC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 13OCT2025 03:35:14 37.4N 118.9W MD=2.4 EMSC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 13OCT2025 03:26:10 37.5N 118.8W MD=2.3 EMSC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 13OCT2025 03:35:41 37.5N 118.9W MD=2.1 EMSC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.7 aftershock in the area
of Leyte, Philippines. NEIC reported slight damage and intensity up to VII in
the Philippines in the Central Visayas at Mano; VI in Bofo, Cebu and Catmon; V in Gabi, Langub, Santo Nino and Guihulngan and IV in Talisay, Cebu, Canlaon and Daanbantayan.
This earthquake occurred near local solar midnight and may have been
promoted by tidal and/or geomagnetic stresses which can maximize near this hour.
O: 12OCT2025 17:05:59 10.9N 123.9E MW=5.7 NEIC LEYTE, PHILIPPINES
O: 12OCT2025 17:06:00 11.0N 124.0E MW=5.8 EMSC NEGROS- CEBU REG, PHILIPPINES
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.9 in Coquimbo, Chile was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Coquimbo, Chile with V in Ovalle, III in Coquimbo and Vicuna and II in La Serena, Llaillay and Santiago.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Coquimbo and Vina del Mar, Chile.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 5.6 in the Northern Kuril Islands may have been felt with intensity up to V in the area(s) of the Kuril Islands.
This earthquake occurred near local solar noon and may have been promoted
by tidal and/or geomagnetic effects which can maximize near this hour.
This epicenter is at the ninth node from the M 7.5 in Leyte, Philippines and
may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 13OCT2025 01:10:11 48.8N 154.9E MB=5.6 EMSC KURIL ISLANDS
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.6 in Argentina was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Argentina at Santiago, Chile.
EMSC reported light shaking in Chile at Providencia, Santiago and Cartagena.
The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.4 in the
Kenai Peninsula, Alaska. NEIC reported it was felt lightly in Anchorage and Ninilchik, Alaska.
O: 13OCT2025 02:52:29 60.2N 150.7W MB=4.4 EMSC KENAI PENINSULA, ALASKA
TODAY'S MAP
Stippled white lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.4 in Mindanao, Philippines of October 10, 2025.
Stippled lavender lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October 10, 2025.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
TYPHOON NAKRI (29W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH NAKRI 2025-10-13 00:00 UT 33.2N 145.3E 80 kts Southeast of Honshu, Japan
Typhoon Nakri continued south of eastern Honshu with winds up to 80 kts and is not expected to enhance regional seismicity at this time. The antipode is at 33S 40W in an area of the South Atlantic and is not seismic.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 12, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
8110 0330 0402 0404 C2.3 (October 13, 2025) 2.1E-03 *
Mammoth Lakes swarm M 2-2.6 03:26-03:35 UT
8120 0404 0413 0419 C5.8 (October 13, 2025) 4.2E-03 *
7880 0219 0247 0256 C1.5 (October 12, 2025) 3.1E-03
Kamchatka M 4.4 02:22 UT
Veracruz, Mexico M 4.8 02:26 UT
Papua M 5.0 03:00 UT
7890 0627 0630 0635 C1.0 (October 12, 2025) 5.3E-04
7920 1038 1043 1055 C1.6 (October 12, 2025) 1.5E-03
Southern Peru M 4.2 10:44 UT
7930 1112 1122 1132 C1.9 (October 12, 2025) 2.2E-03
Central Peru M 4.0 11:14 UT
7940 1200 1207 1210 C1.7 (October 12, 2025) 1.0E-03
7950 1230 1236 1242 C1.9 (October 12, 2025) 1.8E-03
7990 1242 1246 1249 C1.7 (October 12, 2025) 9.4E-04
7960 1318 1350 1426 C9.6 (October 12, 2025) 2.9E-02
Dominican Rep. M 3.9 13:35 UT
7970 1514 1522 1528 C3.3 (October 12, 2025) 2.8E-03
Montana M 2.4 15:20 UT
Taiwan M 4.0 15:13 UT
7980 1731 1739 1745 C2.7 (October 12, 2025) 2.3E-03
Mindanao M 4.4 17:38 UT
Madeira Is. M 3.8 17:48 UT
8020 1933 1939 1943 C2.0 (October 12, 2025) 1.5E-03
8040 1943 1952 1956 C2.3 (October 12, 2025) 2.2E-03
8050 1956 2001 2004 C2.4 (October 12, 2025) 1.4E-03
8030 2050 2102 2110 C2.4 (October 12, 2025) 2.6E-03
8060 2118 2137 2151 C4.4 (October 12, 2025) 7.0E-03
8070 2323 2331 2340 C3.5 (October 12, 2025) 3.0E-03
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: unsettled October 13-15. Solar M-flare chance: 40% X-class: 10% proton storm: 10%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 29 38 18 14:00 5 125 143
October 12, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
A moderate geomagnetic storm occurred today and lasted at its peak from about 0600 UT
to 1500 UT. It reached K-index at high latitudes of 6 around 0800 UT. Most of
the significant earthquakes of the day including those in
Ethiopia, Los Angeles California, Andreanof Islands, Alaska, Northern Mindanao,
Southern Mindanao, Leyte, Luzon, Philippines, Kuril Islands, and South Sandwich
Islands and Missouri occurred during the limited time this storm was maximized and may
have been promoted by geomagnetic stresses related to it.
A strong series of earthquakes occurred today in the region of Ethiopia. This
began with events of M 5.6 and M 5.3 but included a number of others of M>=4.5.
These earthquake were felt with intensity IV-VI in Ethiopia at Mek'ele and Addigrat, Tigray among others according to NEIC data.
The series ended as quickly as it began with an M 4.5 within minutes of local
solar midnight. The last earthquake in Ethiopia within about 200 km of these
epicenter occurred as an M 5.6 on August 1, 2023 about 200 km northeast of today's
epicenters. The only event of similar or larger magnitude within this 200
km radius in the past 35 years was an M 5.6 on August 10, 2002. At the time this summary noted it as:
"Over the past several days this report has been covering an unusual
sequence of earthquakes in the region of Ethiopia. The strongest in this
series occurred today with Mb 5.1. ... This was the strongest event within 200 km of this
epicenter since September 21, 1993 when a Mb 5.6 occurred about 200 km
south of today's epicenter.
...
A strong geomagnetic disturbance occurred last night from August 10
at about 18:00 UT to about 06:00 UT on August 11. This disturbance was
not strong enough to precipitate a seismic watch, but some effect is possible
on regions where seismicity is currently strongly active." (August 10, 2002)
Today's events in Ethiopia are located near the shadow zone boundary (102-107 degrees) from
the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage in an area which had been expected to see
enhanced seismicity at this time as noted in the previous issue of this
summary:
"Preliminary expectations for far field triggering from the Drake Passage earthquake of M 7.5 of August 22, 2025:
"P- and S- shadow zone edge and node 7 (101-110 degrees)
Drake Passage to Central, southern California, Nevada/Utah, Azores/Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge, Gibraltar, Spain, New Guinea, New Britain, Hawaii, Ethiopia," (October 11, 2025)
These epicenters are located at 104-107 degrees from the South Geomagnetic
Pole and the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October 10 and at the fourth node
(90 degrees) from the eye of Typhoon Nakri and may have been promoted
with today's geomagnetic storm by energy from those sources.
O: 11OCT2025 21:41:28 13.8N 39.8E MB=4.5 NEIC ETHIOPIA
O: 11OCT2025 18:38:22 14.0N 39.7E MB=4.8 NEIC ETHIOPIA
O: 11OCT2025 21:23:13 13.9N 39.8E MB=4.3 NEIC ETHIOPIA
O: 11OCT2025 16:18:25 13.8N 39.9E MB=5.6 NEIC ETHIOPIA
O: 11OCT2025 16:01:59 13.9N 39.9E MB=5.3 NEIC ETHIOPIA
O: 11OCT2025 12:07:33 13.8N 39.8E MB=4.2 NEIC ETHIOPIA
Another seismic area which is near 103 degrees and at the shadow zone boundary
from the Drake Passage is in California most notably in southern California.
A set of two light earthquakes were felt in the Los Angeles, California area today.
An M 2.1 under the city center was reported by NEIC to have been felt with intensity III in Monterey Park and Los Angeles with II in Alhambra, Los Angeles.
This event occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and was probably
promoted by tidal and/or geomagnetic effects which maximize at this hour
in areas of high local stress. This epicenter is near 104 degrees from
the series of major earthquakes in Mindanao and Leyte, Philippines and
from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage and may have been promoted by energy
from those sources.
O: 12OCT2025 08:24:33 34.1N 118.3W MB=2.1 NEIC LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA
Earthquakes of M 2.6 and M 2.3 were also felt today in eastern Los Angeles earlier in the day.
NEIC reported they were felt in California at Redlands, Mentone and Yucaipa with intensity II and II in Loma Linda and Victorville and in Riverside, California. The stronger of these
occurred within minutes of local solar midnight and the later event occurred
within several minutes of local solar noon and were probably promoted by
tidal and/or geomagnetic stresses following the strong geomagnetic storm
several days ago. A geomagnetic storm was in progress when this event occurred.
This epicenter, like the later event near local solar midnight was near 103-104
degrees from the Philippines and Drake Passage earthquakes of the past several
days and was probably promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 11OCT2025 19:56:20 34.1N 117.3W MB=2.3 NEIC GREATER LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA
O: 11OCT2025 09:05:00 34.0N 117.2W MB=2.6 NEIC GREATER LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA
These two earthquakes in Los Angeles illustrate that the area is under considerable
stress as it seem a minor tidal stress increase with an aligned sun is
able to to trigger the. The confluence of this along with the distance near
103 degrees from four major earthquakes (3 in the Philippines and one in the
Drake Passage) at the time of a building nor'easter on the east coast of the
U.S. suggest that this activity in California could continue for several
days and could include a moderate to large earthquake. The danger is not
limited to the area of Southern California as major far-field effects from
the Philippines and from the Drake Passage related to reflected and refracted
seismic waves from the core-mantle boundary near 103 degrees cover much of
California north to San Francisco and northeast to Idaho and Montana. All
these areas could see enhanced seismicity at this time.
The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.3 in western
Texas. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity IV in Texas at Eola, Coaoma, Westbrook, Miles and III in Eldorado, Colorado City, San Angelo, Sterling City and Brady.
This event occurred within about half an hour of local solar midnight and
may have been promoted by tidal stresses. The last earthquake within about
200 km of this epicenter with M>=4.3 occurred on February 28, 2025 with M 4.8
about 100 km west of today's epicenter, the only such event in this region
of Texas in the past year. Today's epicenter is at the third node (120 degrees) from the
events in Mindanao and Leyte, Philippines of M 7.4 and M 7.6 and may have
been promoted by energy associated with those earthquakes.
A regional foreshock of M 2.7 was felt in Midland, Texas with intensity III.
This epicenter is located at the third node (120 degrees) from the major
earthquakes in the Philippines of the past two days and at the sixth node
(60 degrees) from the North Geomagnetic Pole and may have been promoted
during the geomagnetic storm today by energy from those sources.
O: 12OCT2025 06:08:59 32.3N 101.1W MB=4.3 NEIC WESTERN TEXAS
The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.5 in the
Andreanof Islands, Alaska. NEIC reported it may have been felt with light
intensity in the epicentral area. This is an active seismic zone but the
last earthquake in the western Andreanof Islands within about 150 km of
this epicenter with equal or larger magnitude at a shallow focus was an M 5.0
on June 21, 2024.
This epicenter is located at 145 degrees from the Drake Passage event of M 7.8
of October 10 and at the sixth node (60 degrees) from earthquake in Mindanao
and Leyte, Philippines of October 10 and was probably promoted by energy
from those sources. It may also have been promoted with the geomagnetic
storm today as it is located at the third node (120 degrees) from the South Geomagnetic
Pole and at the 10th node from the North Geomagnetic Pole (36.0 degrees).
O: 11OCT2025 13:51:19 51.0N 179.8W MB=4.5 NEIC ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALASKA
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.0 in northern Mindanao, Philippines.
This earthquake was reported by NEIC to have been felt with intensity up to V in Caraga, Philippines at Carrascal, Calaitan, Butuan and Nabunturan ; with IV in Ourok, Panabo, Bunawan, Luna, and III in the Eastern Visayas at Abuyog and Lawaan.
EMSC reported it was felt strongly in the Philippines in Tandag, Basag, Butuan, Tungao, Libertad, General Luna, Libas, San Isidro and lightly in Surigao, Magugpo Poblacion, Binuangan, Jasaan, Bugo, Carmen, Panabo, Cagayan de Oro, Barra, Lumbia, Davao among others.
This is not a classical aftershock of either the events in Mindanao nor the
earlier events in Leyte, Philippines as it lies about 250 km from both these
areas but was probably triggered by stress redistribution
associated with those events of M 7.6 an 7.4 to the south and north.
This earthquake occurred near local solar midnight.
The last earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter in Mindanao, Philippines
with M>=6 occurred as an M 6.8 and M 6.3 on August 2-3, 2024. These followed
a major M 7.6 near today's epicenter on December 2, 2023. Today's M 6.0 is
probably an aftershock of that major earthquake. At the time this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.8 in Mindanao, Philippines. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to VII in Barcelona, Philippines. A strong aftershock of M 6.3 occurred in Mindanao, Philippines today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to VI in Barcelona, and Santa Maria, Philippines.
EMSC reported strong but gentle swaying in Mindanao, Philippines at Butuan City, Panabo, Malaybalay City, Davao City, Digos City, Macrohon.
PHIVOLCS reporteed intensity up to V for the mainshock in Lingig, Hinatuan and City of Bislig, Surigao del Sur; Rosario, Agusan del Sur, Maco and Monkayo, Davao de Oro; IV in Nabuntura, Davao de Oro, City of Davao and III in Don Marcelino, Davao Occidental; Inabanga, Gohol; city of Baybey, Leyte and II in Camiguin; Sohof, Southern Leyte; City of Cotabo; Datu Odin Sinsuat, Maguindanao.
The M 6.3 was reported by EMSC to have been felt with strong intensity in Mindanao at Butuan City, Davao City, Philippines. Several moderate aftershocks were also reported felt in the Barcelona, Philippines area with intensity up to IV.
PHIVOLCS reported the M 6.3 was felt with intensity V in Mindanao at Lingig and City of Bislig, Surigao del Sur; IV in Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur; Monkayo, Davao de Oro; III in Marihatag, Surigao del Sur and in Misamis Oriental and the city of Cagayan de Oro with lesser intensity.
While a small tsunami is possible PTWC indicated a tsunami warning was not to be issued at this time.
The last earthquake of M>=6.8 within about 200 km of today's epicenter in Mindanao
occurred as an M 6.9 on December 3, 2023 - an aftershock of an M 7.6 on December 2, 2023
and today's event is probably a regional aftershock of that mainshock. It occurred following major geomagnetic
storms on the geomagnetic equator and had been expected with these storms
in the previous updates to this summary as:
"SFE promoted seismicity is most likely near local solar
midnight and noon and at high latitudes (Alaska and north) and near the geomagnetic
equator." (July 31, 2024)
At the time of the December 2, 2023 M 7.6 this summary noted in part:
"The mainshock occurred near local solar midnight at a location on the geomagnetic
equator as the strong geomagnetic storm was prevalent and was probably
triggered by effects associated with that storm.
...
The M 7.6 in Mindanao today is the strongest in the Philippines in the region
of Mindanao within about 300 km of today's epicenter since an M 7.6 on August 31, 2012, the only such event
in this area in at least 35 years. Other events of M >=7.5 hit somewhat further
to the south of today's epicenter on July 23, 2010, March 5, 2002 and January 1, 2001 (all with M 7.5)." (December 2, 2023, August 3, 2024)
Today's epicenter is located at the fifth node (72 degree) from the South
Geomagnetic Pole and the seventh node from Kamchatka and may have been promoted
by energy from those sources with today's geomagnetic storm.
O: 11OCT2025 14:32:58 8.9N 126.4E MW=6.0 NEIC NORTHERN MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
O: 11OCT2025 14:32:58 9.0N 126.6E MW=6.0 PHIV NORTHERN MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
A classical aftershock of M 5.5 occurred in southern Mindanao, Philippines today following the M 7.4 of October 10.
NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Caraga at Lapinigan and in Mindanao at Davao and Lumbia and ins southern Mindanao at Lasang, Mawab, Digos and II in Libertad, Central Mindanao.
EMSC reported it was felt with intensity up to V in the Philippines at Manay, Mati, Magugpo Poblacion, Tagum, Kaputian, Davao, Ula, Tuli, Agusan, Cagayan de Oro.
PHIVOLCS reported it was felt with intensity IV in Cagwait and Carmen, Surigao del Sur; City of Cagayan De Oro, City of Davao, City of Butuan and III in Abuyyog, Leyte, Hinunangan, San Francisco, and Silago, Southern Leyte, Cabanglasan, Don Carlos, City of Malaybalay and San Fernando, Bukidnon, City of Bislig, Surigao del sur, City of Mati, Davao Oriental and II in Leyte, Samar, Bukidnon, Misamis Oriental and Surigao del Norte.
O: 11OCT2025 10:27:23 7.2N 126.8E MW=5.5 NEIC SOUTHERN MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
Another non-conventional earthquake in the Philippines today occurred in the Central Visayas where it was felt
with intensity II and Minglanilla and M 4.5. This epicenter, like the one in northern Mindanao (see above)
does not fit neatly into any of the major aftershock zones at this time.
O: 11OCT2025 13:54:58 10.6N 125.2E MW=4.5 NEIC CENTRAL VISAYAS, PHILIPPINES
Also in the Philippines and M 4.9 was felt in the area north of Manila, Luzon.
NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III in Central Luzon at Subic and II in Urdaneta, Ilocos, Olongapo, Central Luzon and in Manila.
EMSC reported it was felt with strong intensity in the Philippines at Arayat, Bundoc, Cabangan, Olongapo. Gapan, Rosales, Santa Cruz, Del Monte, Manila, Calumpang, Pasay, Makati, Pateros.
O: 11OCT2025 09:32:16 15.2N 120.4E MW=4.9 NEIC LUZON, PHILIPPINES
O: 11OCT2025 09:32:13 15.2N 120.4E MW=5.0 EMSC LUZON, PHILIPPINES
An earthquake of M 5.5 also occurred today in the South Sandwich Islands area. NEIC reported it might have been felt with intensity up to IV
in the epicentral area. It occurred within an hour of local solar noon
and may have been promoted by energy associated with tides or geomagnetic
effects. A moderate geomagnetic storm reached its peak today about this hour.
This epicenter is located near the antipode of an M 5.8 in the Kuril Islands which occurred
42 minutes earlier (see below). SS seismic waves would have been in the
area and time of the South Sandwich Islands from that Kuril Islands event and could
could have helped trigger it. An earlier event of M 5.4 occurred near the
same epicenter.
Like an earthquake of M 5.3 in New Guinea today, this epicenter is located
at the sixth node from the South Geomagnetic pole and neart the antipode
of events in the Kurils and Kamchatka region and may have been promoted by
energy from those sources.
O: 11OCT2025 13:08:00 56.4S 26.6W MW=5.5 NEIC SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
O: 11OCT2025 08:06:43 56.2S 26.5W MW=5.4 NEIC SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
An unfelt earthquake was also located in New Guinea today with M 5.0-5.3.
This epicenter was likely promoted by today's geomagnetic storm as it is
located at the sixth node (60 degrees) from the South Geomagnetic Pole
and at the fourth node (90 degrees) from the North Geomagnetic pole. It is
also at the sixth node from Kamchatka and may have been promoted by energy from these sources.
O: 12OCT2025 03:00:35 2.7S 139.3E MW=5.0 NEIC PAPUA NEW GUINEA
O: 12OCT2025 03:00:34 2.5S 139.4E MW=5.3 BMG SARMI-PAPUA INDONESIAA
A moderately strong earthquake of M 5.8 was reported today in the Northern
Kuril Islands near local solar midnight. NEIC reported it may have been felt with
intensity up to IV in the epicentral area. EMSC reported moderate shaking
om Russia at Vilyuchinsk and Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. The last earthquake in the northern
Kurils within about 150 km of this epicenter with M>=5.8 occurred on
August 27. 2025 with M 6.0. These are aftershocks of an M 6.8 of August 3, 2025.
O: 11OCT2025 12:25:59 50.3N 156.7E MW=5.8 NEIC NORTHERN KURIL ISLANDS
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.4 in Northern Peru was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Northern Peru in Piura.
EMSC reported light shaking in Pinas, Mida Nuevas and Zaruma, Ecuador.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.9 in Missouri was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Missouri with III in Hornerville, Steele; II in Jackson, Benton and Caruthersville. Also reported felt in Oakwood, Illinois.
The strongest earthquakes within about 100 km of this epicenter during
the year 2025 occurred as events of M 2.9-3.1 on September 6; August 1 and June 27, 2025.
Today's epicenter is located at the fifth node (72 degrees) from major earthquakes in
Kamchatka and at the third node (120 degrees) from earthquakes in central
Philippines of the past several days and may have been promoted by energy
from those sources.
O: 11OCT2025 08:28:34 36.1N 89.8W MW=2.9 NEIC SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
An M 4.8 in the Izu Islands, Japan today was note felt due to its depth of 433 km.
It occurred as Typhoon Nakri was passiing over this epicenter as noted in this summary:
"TYPH NAKRI 2025-10-12 00:00 UT 31.2N 138.3E 85 kts Izu Islands, Japan" (October 12, 2025)
Typhoon Nakri continued south of eastern Honshu in the Izu Islands today with winds up to 85 kts. It also made landfall October 8-9 the northern Ryukyu Islands and may promote seismicity in the Izu Islands at this time (an M 4.8 was recorded at 32N 138E today as this storm passed over that epicenter). The antipode is at 32S 42W in an area of the South Atlantic and is not seismic.
It is likely this event was promoted by stresses related to Typhoon Nakri.
This epicenter is also at 146 degrees from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage
of October 10 and may have been promted by energy from that source.
O: 11OCT2025 03:22:00 30.3N 138.4E MW=4.8 EMSC IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 2.3 in Spain was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Spain at Santa Pola, Guardamar del Segura, Elche, La Hoya, Los Montesinos.
This epicenter is near 108 degrees from recent major earthquakes in the
Philippines and the Drake Passage and may have been promoted by energy from those sources.
O: 11OCT2025 15:11:56 38.2N 0.6W MW=2.3 EMSC SPAIN
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.7 in Pakistan was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Pakistan at Karor, and Layyah.
TODAY'S MAP
Stippled white lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.4 in Mindanao, Philippines of October 10, 2025.
Stippled lavender lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October 10, 2025.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
TYPHOON NAKRI (29W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH NAKRI 2025-10-12 00:00 UT 31.2N 138.3E 85 kts Izu Islands, Japan
Typhoon Nakri continued south of eastern Honshu in the Izu Islands today with winds up to 85 kts. It also made landfall October 8-9 the northern Ryukyu Islands and may promote seismicity in the Izu Islands at this time (an M 4.8 was recorded at 32N 138E today as this storm passed over that epicenter - see above). The antipode is at 32S 42W in an area of the South Atlantic and is not seismic.
SOLAR FLARES
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 11, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
7790 0537 0542 0546 C1.1 (October 11, 2025) 6.0E-04
7800 0754 0804 0815 C1.0 (October 11, 2025) 1.2E-03
South Sandwich Is. M 5.5 08:06 UT
7820 1031 1041 1047 C1.5 (October 11, 2025) 1.2E-03
Mindanao M 5.5 10:27 UT
Tabasco, Mexico M 3.9 10:46 UT
7830 1155 1204 1210 C1.7 (October 11, 2025) 1.3E-03
Ethiopia M 4.4 12:07 UT
Coast of Oregon M 2.7 12:05 UT
Botswana M 3.1 12:00 UT
7840 1905 1915 1927 C2.7 (October 11, 2025) 2.8E-03
Ethiopia M 4.9 19:30 UT
Reykjanes M 4.7 19:29 UT
Mindanao M 4.9 19:28 UT
Los Angeles M 2.3 19:56 UT
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: unsettled October 12-14. Solar M-flare chance: 40% X-class: 10% proton storm: 10%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 17 30 15 09:00 6 108 131
October 11, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
A near-great earthquake of M 7.6-7.8 occurred in the Drake Passage south of
Western South America today. A tsunami warning was issued by PTWC but has
since been modified from a strong tsunami to a possible minor tsunami with
strong currents and sea level fluctuations. Readers along the coast of
South America should not be near the coastline at this time.
NEIC reported it may have been lightly felt in Ushuaia Tierra del Fuego, Argentina.
CSN (Chile earthquake network) reported intensity VI in Magallanes and Antartica, Chilena in Antarctici at Base Frei and IV in Base Fildes and Base Prat.
This earthquake occurred at the longitude of maximum tidal stress with
the full moon of October 7 (60 West longitude) at the opposite longitude 120-126 degrees longitude.
This easterly longitude saw a major M 7.4 and an aftershock of M 6.9 in
Mindanao, Philippines earlier in the day. This summary has hypothesized and still maintains tidal
triggering from the full moon is largely responsible for these major earthquakes
as noted in previous issues of this summary:
"The full moon will arrive at 03:47 UT on October 7, 2025. This is the largest super-moon of the year as it is closest to earth at this time. This in turn, considerably enhances tidal stresses (at the inverse third power of distance) and can lead to larger global earthquakes within a couple of days of the full moon. Longitudes at local solar noon are near 124 East and those at local solar midnight are near 56 West longitude. In the west these include the northern and Eastern Caribbean as well as areas of western South America while in the East longitudes near 126 E are located in the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and Indonesia among others. These are the most likely areas to see tidal triggering at this time, but other areas could see significant enhancement in seismicity in the next several days. These would most likely see seismic enhancement near local solar noon or midnight. A strong to major earthquake is considered likely with this full moon before October 8, 2025" (revised to October 11, 2025).
This includes the aftershock area of the earthquake of M 6.9 in the Philiippines of September 30 (at 124E longitude) and is likely to enhance regional seismicity in that area at this time." (October 2-10, 2025)
Today's M 7.7 in the Drake Passage follows a M 7.5 near the same epicenter
on August 22, 2025. At the time this summary noted:
"A major earthquake occurred today south of the Drake Passage near the South Shetland Islands
south of South America. NEIC reported it was lightly felt in Tierra del Fuego, Argentina.
CSN reported this event at M 7.6 was felt in Chile at Magallanes and Antarctica with V in Base Frei and IV in Base Fildes and Base Prat. This event appears to be a regional aftershock of
an M 7.4 in the Drake Passage which occurred about 1000 km northwest of today's
epicenter on May 2, 2025. Today's epicenter is in the general antipodal
region of the M 8.8 in Kamchatka of July 29, 2025 and may have been promoted
be energy from that source. It occurred near local solar midnight and was
probably promoted by strong tidal stresses with the new moon of August 23
as noted in previous issues of this summary:
...
No major tsunami is expected with today's earthquake but minor waves may
be generated in the generally unpopulated area of southern Chile and the
Antarctic.
The last earthquake within about 400 km of today's epicenter with M>=7 occurred
more than 35 years ago. The last significant earthquake in this area was an
M 6.9 on January 23, 2021. At the time this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.9-7.1 in the South Shetland Islands south of Chile. NEIC reported it was felt with light intensity as far as Punta Arenas, Magellanes, Chile.
GUC reported this earthquake of 7.1 was felt with intensity III in Magallanes and Antartida, Chilena at Antartida.
In addition to being the largest earthquake in the world since an M 7.6 in the
Alaska Peninsula October 19, 2020, this M 7.1 is the first in the South
Sheland Islands within about 400 km of this epicenter of M>=7.0 since an M 7.0 on July 11, 1983
and a similar M 7.0 on November 18, 1941 and the strongest recorded in this area, tied with an M 7.0-7.1 on February 8, 1971." (January 23, 2021)
Observant readers may recognize the date in 1971 was the same as the San
Fernando Earthquake in Southern California of M 6.7. The distance between
these two epicenters is 103 degrees and triggering may occurred in that
case. Similar triggering in the Los Angeles/Southern California is possible
following today's M 7.5 in the next several days.
Today's earthquake in the Drake Passage is near 100 degrees from the current
location of the eye of Hurricane Erin and may have been promoted by energy associated
with that storm." (August 22, 2025)
The statement regarding possible seismic enhancement in the area of Central
or southern California at the current time needs to be emphasized under
the current conditions. In addition to being at 103-104 degrees from the
Drake Passage event of October 10, 2025, the area of Central and Southern
California is also at this distance from the M 7.4 in Mindanao, Philippines of October 10, 2025
that occurred earlier in the day. A moderate to large area is most likely
in this area of Southern or central California could occur shortly after an expected major nor'easter hits
the U.S. East coast early next week (October 11-14).
Seismicity in coastal California often shows spikes with strong nor'easter systems.
Several events in eastern Los Angeles area today of M 2.4 and M 2.5 may be precursory. The 103-107 degree
line from the Drake Passage passes through several seismic active areas
which can also be promoted after a major geomagnetic storm as listed below.
Today's epicenter in the Drake Passage occurred at 144-145 degrees from the
current eyes of Tropical Storm Nakri and Typhoon Halong and at 104 degrees
from Tropical Storm Karen in the north Atlantic and at the fourth node (90 degrees)
from Hurricane Jerry and Tropical Storm Raymond and may have been
promoted by energy from those storms. Vibrations caused by waves and winds
can pass through the earth from such storms reflecting and refracting off
the core boundaries and returning to the surface as strong arrivals at this
distances from their sources (143-146 degrees). Enhanced seismicity often follows at this distance
from major earthquakes.
At the time of the August 22 event this summary published a listing of far-field
areas where enhanced seismic triggering from the Drake Passage was expected as:
"Preliminary expectations for far field triggering from the Drake Passage earthquake of M 7.5 of August 22, 2025:
Antipodal (~180 degrees)
Drake Passage to Mongolia, Siberia
Outer shadow zone edge (141-148 degrees)
Drake Passage to Afghanistan, northern India, Taiwan, Rat/Andreanof Is, northern Alaska
Node 3 (120 degrees)
Drake Passage to Sumatra, Greece, western Turkey, Italy, Reykjanes Ridge, SE Alaska, Vancouver B.C.
P- and S- shadow zone edge and node 7 (101-110 degrees)
Drake Passage to Central, southern California, Nevada/Utah, Azores/Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge, Gibraltar, Spain, New Guinea, New Britain, Hawaii, Ethiopia,
Node 4 (90 degrees)
Drake Passage to Baja, Gulf of California, Northern Mid-Atlantic, Kenya, South Indian Ocean, Vanuatu, Western Australia, Vanuatu, Loyalty Is. Central Tonga
Node 5 (72 degrees)
Drake Passage to Costa Rica, Central Mid-Atlantic, North Island, NZ, Fiji,
Node 6 (60 degrees)
Drake Passage to Southern New Zealand, Peru/Ecuador, Macquarie, South Africa,
Node 7 (52 degrees)
Drake Passage to Central, Northern Peru, Southern mid-Atlantic Balleny Islands
" (August 22, 2025)
As noted above a curious arrangement of tropical storms today may have helped
trigger today's Drake Passage event. This epicenter is at 144-145 degrees from Tropical Storm Nakri and Halong south of
Honshu, Japan; at 104 degrees from Tropical Storm Karen in the North Atlantic and at the fourth node from Tropical Storm Raymond off Western Mexico.
Today's earthquake in the Drake Passage may also have been promoted by
SFE associated with the second strongest solar flare of the day - a C1.7 (#7720).
The earthquake occurred near the end of that flare. Data from SWPC for
this flare follow:
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
7720 1956 2016 2026 C1.7 (October 10, 2025) 2.3E-03
Drake Passage M 7.7 20:29 UT
Central Peru M 4.1 20:11 UT
O: 10OCT2025 10:20:29 60.2S 61.9W mb=7.6 NEIC DRAKE PASSAGE
O: 10OCT2025 10:20:29 60.3S 62.0W MW=7.8 CSN DRAKE PASSAGE
An aftershock of M 6.7 also occurred today in Mindanao, Philippines. This follows the M 7.4 in that area which occurred earlier on UT October 10, 2025.
NEIC reported today's aftershock was felt with damage and intensity VI in Southern Mindanao at Baganga, Babag, Mabantao; V in Lasang, Buayan, Davao, Ula, and IV in San Jose, Hagonoy and Nabunturan.
EMSC reported moderate to strong shaking in Mindanao at Santo Nino, Limao, Babak, Davao, Ula, Bansalan, Maramag, Tandag, General Santos, San Martin, Cagayan de Oro, Balingasag, Cotabato, General Luna, San Francisco, Surigao, La Paz, Gabi, Calero, San Goque, Consolacion, Danao, Tabuelan, northern Cebu.
PHIVOLCS reported intensity VI in Manay, Davao Oriental; V in Baganga, Boston, Caraga, Cateel and Tarragona, Davao Oriental and IV in Mawab, Monkayo, Nabunturan and Pantukan, Davao de Oro; City of Davao, City of Mati, Davao Orienta; City of Bislig, Surigao. It was also reported with intensity II-III in Leyte, Davao del Sur, Cotabo, Sultan Kudarat, Dinagat Islands, Eastern Samar, Northern Samat, Cagayan de Oro, Cotabato.
This epicenter is at 144 degrees from Tropical Storm Jerry in the North Atlantic and
at 51.4 degrees (node 7) from the recent major seismicity in Kamchatka.
It is likely it was promoted by energy from those sources.
It also lies on the geomagnetic equator at the fifth node from the South
Geomagnetic Pole and may have been set up by energy associated with the recent major geomagnetic storm.
More details on the M 7.4 mainshock were published in the previous issue of
this summary. Readers are encouraged to review that for additional information.
Latest news on the tolls from that earthquake and today's M 6.7 indicate that at least 7 were
killed in that event - mostly by heart attacks and falling debris. In Manay, houses,
churches, roads an bridges were damaged. Damage was described as "quite big" by
local officials. Children were forced from school and power was off in many
areas of Mindanao, Philippines.
O: 10OCT2025 11:12:07 7.2N 126.7E mb=6.7 NEIC MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
O: 10OCT2025 11:12:07 7.2N 126.7E mb=6.8 PHIV MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
An earthquake of M 5.5 in the Banda Sea, Indonesia today was reported by NEIC to
have likely been felt in the Banda Sea with intensity up to IV.
BMG reported intensity III in Tanimbar at Selaru and in Maluku at Damer, Pulau and Dawelor Da.
Like the earthquakes in the Philippines this epicenter is located at 144 degrees
from Tropical Storm Karen and may have been promoted by energy from that
unusual source.
O: 10OCT2025 10:02:51 6.9S 129.5E mb=5.5 NEIC BANDA SEA, INDONESIA
O: 10OCT2025 10:02:50 7.1S 129.7E mb=5.7 BMG TANIMBAR, INDONESIA
EMSC also reported that an M 5.7 aftershock in Kamchatka was felt with moderate intensity in Kamchatka at Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Yelizovo, Vilyuchinsk.
This epicenter is located at the seventh node (52 degrees) from the M 7.4 in
the Philippines of October 10. It is likely it was promoted by energy related
to that source.
O: 11OCT2025 03:08:43 53.2N 159.8E mb=5.7 EMSC KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA
Several other earthquake of moderately strong magnitude but unfelt in the epicentral areas were reported today.
These included an M 5.6 in the Kuril Islands; an M 5.2 in Sichuan-Yunnan-Guizhou, China (not reported
felt but was probably felt and may have been damaging in the epicentral area);
and an M 5.6 and M 5.2 in the State of Yap, Micronesia. These occurred
with the following parameters:
O: 10OCT2025 09:43:41 11.5N 141.7E mb=5.6 EMSC STATE OF YAP, MICRONESIA
O: 11OCT2025 03:18:15 27.0N 103.5E mb=5.2 EMSC SICHUAN-YUNNAN-GUIZHOU RG, CHINA
O: 10OCT2025 11:16:01 50.4N 156.5E mb=5.6 EMSC KURIL ISLANDS
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.4 in Kentucky was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Kentucky in Crestwood and Morehead.
TODAY'S MAP
Stippled white lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.4 in Mindanao, Philippines of October 10, 2025.
Stippled lavender lines represent areas at nodal distances from the M 7.8 in the Drake Passage of October 10, 2025.
SEISMIC EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
TROPICAL STORM NAKRI (29W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS NAKRI 2025-10-11 00:00 UT 29.3N 131.8E 70 kts Ryukyu Islands, Japan
Tropical Storm Nakri continued south of the Ryukyu Islands today with winds up to 70 kts. It also made landfall October 8-9 the northern Ryukyu Islands and may promote seismicity in that area and in Kyushu, Japan at this time. The antipode is at 29S 48W in an area of the South Atlantic and are not seismic.
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND (17E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS RAYMOND 2025-10-11 00:00 UT 21.1N 109.0W 45 kts South of Guerrero, Mexico
TS Raymond continued today in area west of Mexico with winds up to 45 kts. It is expected to track to the north and west. Regional seismicity in the area of Baja California and the Gulf of California could be enhanced at that time. The antipode is at 21S 71E is in the South Indian Ocean and could see moderately enhanced seismicity while this storm is active.
TYPHOON HALONG (DEPRESSION 28W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH HALONG 2025-10-11 00:00 UT 34.1N 149.9E 85 kts East of Honshu, Japan
Typhoon Halong (28W) continued today in the area east of Honshu, Japan with winds up to 85 kts. This system is moving to the northeast and could help promote seismicity east of Honshu in the next day. It will turn to the east around October 8 but is unlikely at this point to trigger a significant earthquake. The current antipode is at 34S 30W in the South Atlantic and is not expected to see enhanced seismicity at this time.
TROPICAL STORM KAREN
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS KAREN 2025-10-11 00:00 UT 43.3N 36.1W 45 kts North Atlantic
Tropical Storm Karen continued today in the area of the north Atlantic. It is expected to dissipate in the next two days and is unlikely to generate enhanced seismicity at this time.
TROPICAL STORM JERRY
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS JERRY 2025-10-11 00:00 UT 27.2N 63.0W 45 kts Atlantic Ocean north of Virgin Islands
Tropical Storm Jerry continued today in the area north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands with winds up to 45 kts. It is expected track to the north and east and is not likely to enhance further regional seismicity at this time. The antipode is at 27S 117E is in western Australia near an active seismic zone which could see enhanced seismicity at this time (30S 117E).
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 10, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
7690 0613 0629 0643 C2.3 (October 10, 2025) 2.8E-03
El Salvador M 4.6 06:27 UT
Mindanao M 4.9 06:32 UT
7710 1926 1933 1942 C1.0 (October 10, 2025) 9.7E-04
Mindanao M 4.2 19:37 UT
7720 1956 2016 2026 C1.7 (October 10, 2025) 2.3E-03
Drake Passage M 7.7 20:29 UT
Central Peru M 4.1 20:11 UT
7760 2156 2202 2205 C1.8 (October 10, 2025) 7.3E-04
Drake Passage M 4.8 22:09 UT
Hokkaido M 4.3 22:06 UT
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: unsettled October 11-13. Solar M-flare chance: 40% X-class: 10% proton storm: 10%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 9 12 9 12:00 5 81 121
October 10, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
A major M 7.4 earthquake has occurred in Mindanao, Philippines. A tsunami alert
is currently in effect. PTWC issued a tsunami warning but only small waves
were reported and it was later withdrawn. NEIC reported the mainshock of M 7.4
was widely felt with intensity up to VIII (with damage) in Central and northern Mindanao
north to Cebu. Intensity reports published by NEIC indicated it was felt with
intensity VI in Caraga Philippines at Bayugan; V in Butuan; IV in Masarawag, Bicol, Bancasi, and III in Caraga at San Francisco, Legazpi City, Albay, Brasilisa, and II-II in Pulau at Meyungs, and Ngetkip and in Sulawesi, Indonesia.
PHIVOLCS (the local Philippines earthquake network) reported intensity V in Copostela, Maco, Mawab, Monkayo, Montevista, Nabunturan and Pantukan, Davao De Oro; Asuncion, Braulio E. Dujali, Carmen, New Corella,City of Panabo, Island Garden City of Samat, Santo Tomas and City of Tagum, Davao del Norte,
City of Davao, Jose Abad Santos, Davao Occidental; Cateel and City of Mati, Davao Oriental; City of Kidapawan, Cotabato; Alabel, Glan and Malungon, Sarangani, City of Koronadal, Tampakan and Tup, South Cotabate, City of General Santos; City of Butuan, Claver, Gigaquit and Mainit, Surigao Del Norte, In addition intensity IV was felt in the areas of the city of Tacloban, Budkidnon, Davao Del Sur, Davao Occidental, Cotabato, Sarangani, South Cotabato, Surigao del Norte and III in City of Iloilo, Eastern Samar, Leyte, Ormoc City, southern Leyte, Budidnon, City of Iligan, City of Cagayan de Oro, Davao Occidental, Cotabato, Sarangani, Sorsogon as well as throughout most of Mindanao, Leyte and Samar, Philippines.
The largest aftershocks at the time of this writing were of M 5.8-5.9. The first
of these occurred 8 minutes after the mainshock and could have been triggered
by a reflected PcP seismic wave. The second occurred within a couple
of minutes of local solar noon - as did many other significant earthquakes
around the world today and was probably promoted by strong tidal stresses
with the full moon of October 7. PHIVOLCS reported it was felt with strong intensity.
The last earthquake at shallow depth within about 200 km of this epicenter
in Mindanao, Philippines was an M 7.6 on December 2, 2023. At the time this
summary noted (in part):
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 7.6 in Mindanao, Philippines. NEIC reported it was felt with damage and intensity up to IX in Mindanao, Philippines.
PHIVOLCS reported it was felt with maximum intensity VII in the City of Tandag, Surigao del Sur; VI in Maco and Monkayo, Davao de Oro; Bayabas, City of Bislig and Hinatuan, Surgao del sur and V in the City of Borongan, Eastern Samar; Palo, Leyte, City of Cagayan de Oro; Nabunturan, Davao de Oro; City of Tagum, Davao del Norte; City of Davao; City of Cadadbaran, Agusan del Norte, Esperanza and Talacogon, Agusan del Sur and with lesser shaling in Bohol, City of Nandaue, Tacloban, Leyte, Budidon, Iligan, Sarangani, South Cotabato, Zamboanga, Davao, Bukidnon among others. Moderate to strong aftershocks were reported by NEIC with intensity up to V.
At least one person was confirmed killed in the earthquake with four others injured
and nine missing at initial count. More than 500 families were displaced. A tsunami warning was initially
made but was later withdrawn when no major tsunami waves were observed. Many people fled to higher ground because of the
fear of tsunami. Tsunami waves were observed in Japan with height up to 0.4 meters (1.3 feet).
Other tsunami waves were measured in the Philippines in Davao (0.3 ft); Legaspi (0.1 ft) and in Malakal Koror (Palau) east of the Philippines with 0.01 m height. A smaller event of M 6.9 hit Mindanao to the south of this two weeks ago. That event killed at least
9 and caused considerable damage to built structures, including a shopping mall ceiling
which collapsed. In today's activity there were no reports of major damage but some
roads in Surigao Del Sur were cracked by the movement associated with the
earthquakes. The mainshock occurred near local solar midnight at a location on the geomagnetic
equator as the strong geomagnetic storm was prevalent and was probably
triggered by effects associated with that storm.
Today's event of M 7.6 was the strongest in the world since an M 7.7 on May 19, 2023 in the
Loyalty Islands. Other events of M>=7.6 in the year 2023 occurred with M 7.6 in the Banda Sea on Januayr 9; in Turkey with M 7.8 on February 6 and in Tonga with M 7.6 on May 10, 2023.
The M 7.6 in Mindanao today is the strongest in the Philippines in the region
of Mindanao within about 300 km of today's epicenter since an M 7.6 on August 31, 2012, the only such event
in this area in at least 35 years. Other events of M >=7.5 hit somewhat further
to the south of today's epicenter on July 23, 2010, March 5, 2002 and January 1, 2001 (all with M 7.5).
.. " (December 2, 2023)
The M 7.4 on January 1, 2001 is the only other shallow focus epicenter within
about 200 km of this epicenter in at least 35 years.
This summary had expected this area of the central Philippines to see strong
seismic enhancement at this time. The major factor in this assessment was
that the maximum tidal stresses associated with the full (Super) harvest moon
of October 7 was at a longitude directly over this epicenter as noted in
previous issues of this summary:
"The full moon will arrive at 03:47 UT on October 7, 2025. This is the largest super-moon of the year as it is closest to earth at this time. This in turn, considerably enhances tidal stresses (at the inverse third power of distance) and can lead to larger global earthquakes within a couple of days of the full moon. Longitudes at local solar noon are near 124 East and those at local solar midnight are near 56 West longitude. In the west these include the northern and Eastern Caribbean as well as areas of western South America while in the East longitudes near 126 E are located in the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and Indonesia among others. These are the most likely areas to see tidal triggering at this time, but other areas could see significant enhancement in seismicity in the next several days. These would most likely see seismic enhancement near local solar noon or midnight. A strong to major earthquake is considered likely with this full moon before October 8, 2025.
This includes the aftershock area of the earthquake of M 6.9 in the Philiippines of September 30 (at 124E longitude) and is likely to enhance regional seismicity in that area at this time." (October 2, 2025)
This was reinforced by a series of earthquakes in China, Kamchatka, Japan, Taiwan,
Indonesia of moderately strong to strong magnitude along this longitude
of maximum tidal stress in the previous issue of this summary as:
"Recall that an earlier event in Sichuan today of M 5.6 occurred within a couple
of minutes from local solar noon at that epicenter. The earthquake in China
is located at 24 degrees longitude west of the longitude of maximum
tidal stress with the super and full moon of October 7 while the earthquake
in Kamchatka today is symmetrically at 34 degrees east of that longitude." (October 9, 2025)
This epicenter is located on the geomagnetic equator at the fifth node (72 degrees)
from the South Geomagnetic Pole. It is likely it was promoted by geomagnetic
energy associated with the major geomagnetic storm of early October, 2025.
It is also at 144 degrees from the strong Hurricane Jerry currently north
of the Caribbean; at 120 degrees from Hurricane Octave and may have been promoted by energy from those storms.
Far-Field triggering is likely with today's earthquake in Mindanao. Some
of this includes:
DISTANCE RELATIONS BETWEEN EARTHQUAKES
Statistical evidence indicates that some triggering or promotion forward in time can occur in regions which are under high stress due to additional stress events of small size. Among these are surface and body waves passing through a region. Triggering may be dynamic with the promoted earthquake occurring at the same time as the stress event or delayed with an earthquake occurring later in time but still related to the stress event through water lubrication or other various geophysical effects on the faults. We have argued in this report for the past 35 years that this effect is most observable where the seismic waves are largest. In general this occurs at distances from the rupture ends of the earthquake producing those waves (mainshock) which we have termed nodal distances. These are defined by the formula D=360*m/n where D is the distance in degrees and m<=m where n an m are small integers. These are also the locations of the maximum corrections to magnitude in the standard Jeffreys-Bullen tables. In addition there is focusing of seismic energy from reflections and refractions of f the core-mantle and the inner-outer core boundary of the earth. This focuses energy at the surface in the distance between 101 and 108 degrees (core-mantle) and 141-148 degrees (inner-outer core boundary). In this report we monitor seismicity at these distances following major earthquakes as experience has shown that strong and/or unusual earthquake are much more likely to occur at these distance from the mainshock.
Antipodal (~180 degrees)
Mindanao to Central Brazil
Outer shadow zone edge (141-148 degrees)
Mindanao to Bio-Bio, Chile, Panama, Costa Rica, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Nicaragua, Maule, Chile, Canary Islands,
Node 3 (120 degrees)
Mindanao to East Pacific Rise, Morocco, Ontario, Arkansas, Illinois, Quebec, Oklahoma, Southeast Pacific, Western Texas, South Sandwich Is,
P- and S- shadow zone edge and node 7 (101-110 degrees)
Mindanao to California, NevadaGreenland, Iceland, , Italy, Idaho, Southern, Geysers, Central California, Yellowstone, South of Africa, Scotland, Iceland, southern Idaho, San Francisco, Mammoth Lakes, CA, Los Angeles, California, Montana, Oregon, Tyrrhenian Sea, France, Central, northern California,
Node 4 (90 degrees)
Mindanao to South Indian Ocean, Tanzania, Norwegian Sea, Greenland Sea, Romania, Istanbul, Turkey, Yukon Terr, Canada, SE Alaska, Crete,
Node 5 (72 degrees)
Mindanao to Caspian Sea, Unimak, Fox Islands, East of South Island, N.Z,
Node 6 (60 degrees)
Mindanao to Carlsberg Ridge, So. Indian Ridge, Rat Is. Near Islands, Fiji, Pakistan, Afghanistan,
Node 7 (52 degrees)
Mindanao to Kamchatka, Northern India, Xingiang, China, Pakistan, Loyalty Islands,
O: 10OCT2025 01:43:55 7.2N 127.0E MW=7.4 PHIV MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
O: 10OCT2025 01:43:59 7.3N 126.8E MW=7.4 EMSC MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
O: 10OCT2025 01:51:15 7.3N 126.7E MW=5.9 EMSC MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
O: 10OCT2025 03:32:15 7.1N 125.8E MW=5.8 PHIV MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
Twenty-four minutes after the M 7.4 in Mindanao an M 6.3 occurred in the
Bismarck Sea north of New Guinea. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity
II in Papua New Guinea at Lorengau Manus. This earthquake also occurred
within a couple of minutes of local solar noon today and was probably
promoted by energy associated with the full moon of October 7.
This earthquake occurred about 16 minutes after the M 5.9 aftershock
in Mindanao at 23 degrees distance. This is the time it takes from a refected
ScS seismic phase to travel this distance and it may have helped trigger
this earthquake. The surface wave from Mindanao arrived about six minutes before
this earthquake in the Bismarck Sea.
This epicenter is at 102 degrees from Hurricane Octave and at the sixth node (60 degrees)
from the South Geomagnetic Pole and the fourth node (90 degrees) from the North
Geomagnetic Pole and may have been promoted by energy associated with those
sources.
O: 10OCT2025 02:08:10 3.0S 148.0E MW=6.3 NEIC BISMARCK SEA
A moderately sized solar flare (M2.0) appears to have led to a strong M 6.0
aftershock in Kamchatka which occurred towards the end of that flare.
Other moderate earthquake associated with the flare occurred in the Kermadec
Islands near the International Date Line (IDL) and south of Africa near the
Greenwich Meridian. These were at local solar midnight and noon respective
when the flare was near maximum. The earthquake in Kamchatka occurred within
a couple of minutes of exactly local solar midnight and was likely triggered
by SFE associated with this flare. None of these events were reported felt.
Recall that an earlier event in Sichuan today of M 5.6 occurred within a couple
of minutes from local solar noon at that epicenter. The earthquake in China
is located at 24 degrees longitude west of the longitude of maximum
tidal stress with the super and full moon of October 7 while the earthquake
in Kamchatka today is symmetrically at 34 degrees east of that longitude.
An M 6.1 on October 3 about 150 km to the east of today's epicenter in Kamchatka
is the only aftershock of M>=6 in this region of Kamchatka since late July 2025.
EMSC reported it was felt with light to moderate intensity in Kamchatka at
Vilyuchinsk, Paratunka, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, and Yelizovo.
Data on the accompanying flare from SWPC follow:
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
XXXX 1211 1231 1252 M2.0 (October 10, 2025) 2.8E-02
Kamchatka M 6.0 13:29 UT
Kermadec Is. M 5.2 13:22 UT
Southwest of Africa M 5.2 14:45 UT
XXXX 0509 0517 0522 C1.7 (October 9, 2025) 9.8E-04
China M 5.6 05:17 UT
O: 09OCT2025 13:28:46 51.7N 158.2E MW=6.0 EMSC NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 09OCT2025 13:22:51 34.0S 178.6W MW=5.2 EMSC SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
O: 09OCT2025 14:45:05 52.0S 14.6E MW=5.2 EMSC SOUTHWEST OF AFRICA
O: 09OCT2025 15:03:00 52.2S 14.3E MW=5.4 NEIC SOUTHWEST OF AFRICA
O: 09OCT2025 05:17:42 30.9N 99.9E MW=5.5 EMSC WESTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.5 near Sand Point, Alaska on the Alaska Peninsula.
NEIC reported it was felt with intensity up to III at Sand Point.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.8 in Central California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central California in Bakersfield with IV.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.9 in Central Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central Alaska in Salcha (V) and III in Fairbanks and North Pole and II in Eielson AFB.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.5 in San Francisco, California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of San Francisco, California with III in San Francisco and II in El Cerrito, Lafayette, Moraga.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.7 in Southern Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern Alaska iat Anchorage, Elmendorf AFB.
BMG reported an earthquake of M 5.1 in Bengkulu, Indonesia was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Bengkulu, Indonesia in Enggaino.
TROPICAL STORM NAKRI (29W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS NAKRI 2025-10-10 00:00 UT 27.2N 131.6E 45 kts Ryukyu Islands, Japan
Tropical Storm Nakri continued south of the Ryukyu Islands today with winds up to 45 kts. It also made landfall October 8-9 the northern Ryukyu Islands and may promote seismicity in that area at this time. The antipode is at 27S 49W in an area of the South Atlantic and are not seismic.
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND (17E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS RAYMOND 2025-10-10 00:00 UT 16.3N 101.9W 55 kts South of Guerrero, Mexico
TS Raymond continued today in area southwest of Guerrero, Mexico with winds up to 55 kts. It is expected to track to the north and west. Regional seismicity in the area of Baja California and the Gulf of California could be enhanced at that time. The antipode is at 16S 78E is in the South Indian Ocean and could see moderately enhanced seismicity while this storm is active.
HURRICANE PRISCILLA
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR PRISCILLA 2025-10-10 00:00 UT 24.7N 114.9W 55 kts Revilla Gigedo Islands, Mexico
Hurricane Priscilla continued today in area southwest of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 55 kts. It is expected to track to the north. Regional seismicity in the area of Baja California and the Gulf of California could be enhanced at this time. The antipode is at 25S 65E is in the South Indian Ocean and could see moderately enhanced seismicity while this storm is active.
HURRICANE OCTAVE (DEPRESSION 15E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR OCTAVE 2025-10-10 00:00 UT 15.9N 114.0W 50 kts South of Baja, Mexico
Hurricane Octave (depression 15E) continued today in the Pacific south of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track to the north and east and not to approach landfall at this time. Regional seismicity is not likely to be enhanced by this storm at this time. The antipode is at 16S 66E is in the South Indian Ocean. This is a minor seismic zone and it could see minor earthquake enhancement in the next several days.
TYPHOON HALONG (DEPRESSION 28W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH HALONG 2025-10-10 00:00 UT 34.1N 149.9E 85 kts East of Honshu, Japan
Typhoon Halong (28W) continued today in the area east of Honshu, Japan with winds up to 85 kts. This system is moving to the northeast and could help promote seismicity east of Honshu in the next day. It will turn to the east around October 8 but is unlikely at this point to trigger a significant earthquake. The current antipode is at 34S 30W in the South Atlantic and is not expected to see enhanced seismicity at this time.
TROPICAL STORM KAREN
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS KAREN 2025-10-10 00:00 UT 45.3N 32.1W 45 kts North Atlantic
Tropical Storm Karen continued today in the area of the north Atlantic. It is expected to dissipate in the next two days and is unlikely to generate enhanced seismicity at this time.
TROPICAL STORM JERRY
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS JERRY 2025-10-10 00:00 UT 19.2N 62.5W 50 kts East of Virgin Islands
Tropical Storm Jerry continued today in the area east of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected track to the north and east and could enhancement seismicity in the currently active areas of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in the next couple of days. The antipode is at 16S 123E north of Australia and south of Indonesia, an area where seismic enhancement is possible at this time.
A tropical Cyclone may be forming south of Guatemala and Chiapas, Mexico. This system is currently at 15N 93W and tracking to the north and west. It may enhance seismicity in the area of El Salvador, Guatemala and eastern Mexico in the next several days. The antipode is at 15S 87E and is not expected to see seismic enhancement at this time.
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 9, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
7590 0509 0517 0522 C1.7 (October 9, 2025) 9.8E-04
Sichuan, China M 5.5 05:17 UT
7620 1211 1231 1252 M2.0 (October 9, 2025) 2.8E-02
Kamchatka M 6.0 13:29 UT
Kermadec Is. M 5.2 13:22 UT
Southwest of Africa M 5.2 14:45 UT
Sumatra M 4.3 12:21 UT
7660 1833 1848 1902 C1.3 (October 9, 2025) 2.3E-03
7670 1936 1945 1948 C1.8 (October 9, 2025) 1.1E-03
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: unsettled October 10-12. Solar M-flare chance: 40% X-class: 10% proton storm: 10%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 5 3 5 17:00 2 87 122
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 7, 2025 at 19:43:06 UT (#251007B). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
An M 2.1 earthquake in southern Texas occurred at 19:45 UT
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 7, 2025 at 19:36:58 UT (#251007A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
An M 3.6 earthquake in Veracruz Mexico occurred at 19:38 UT
October 9, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
A moderate sized solar flare (C1.7) appears to have led to a moderately
strong earthquake in Sichuan China at noon local solar time on October 9, 2025.
While only a moderate sized solar flare, the C1.7 today is the largest in the past 24 hours with
only one C-class (C1.0) in this time frame. Areas at local solar noon at the
peak output of this flare would be most likely to be affected by Solar Flare
effects (SFE) related to it. In this case the peak of the flare occurred
(according to SWPC) at 05:17 UT so the longitude at local solar noon
is 100 degrees East.
Data on this flare from SWPC follow:
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
XXXX 0509 0517 0522 C1.7 (October 9, 2025) 9.8E-04 *
An M 5.6 is now being listed by EMSC as occurring at 05:17 UT in western Sichuan, China within
a couple of minutes of local solar noon. This is the strongest earthquake in the world
in the past 24 hours. Based on its timing and location it is very likely
triggered by the SFE from the solar flare described above.
This is an unusual earthquake. It is the largest event within about 200 km
of this epicenter in at least 35 years. Earthquakes of larger or equal
magnitude hit the region about 300 km to the east on June 9, 2022 (M 5.6 and M 5.9)
and in November 2014 about 300 km south east also with M 5.6 and M 5.9.
An M 5.6 also occurred about 300 km southeast of today's epicenter on
February 23, 2001. No earthquakes of M>=6 have occurred in this extended
radius of 300 km from today's epicenter in the past 35 years.
This earthquake may also have been promoted by tidal stresses with the
full moon of October 7 as it lies near the longitude of maximum tidal
stress with that alignment as described in previous issues of this summary:
"The full moon will arrive at 03:47 UT on October 7, 2025. This is the largest super-moon of the year as it is closest to earth at this time. This in turn, considerably enhances tidal stresses (at the inverse third power of distance) and can lead to larger global earthquakes within a couple of days of the full moon. Longitudes at local solar noon are near 124 East and those at local solar midnight are near 56 West longitude. In the west these include the northern and Eastern Caribbean as well as areas of western South America while in the East longitudes near 126 E are located in the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and Indonesia among others. These are the most likely areas to see tidal triggering at this time, but other areas could see significant enhancement in seismicity in the next several days. These would most likely see seismic enhancement near local solar noon or midnight. A strong to major earthquake is considered likely with this new moon before October 8, 2025.
This includes the aftershock area of the earthquake of M 6.9 in the Philiippines of September 30 (at 124E longitude) and is likely to enhance regional seismicity in that area at this time." (October 2-9, 2025)
Initial reports from NEIC are that this earthquake was damaging in the epicentral area near Daocheng, China.
NEIC reported intensity up to VIII in the epicentral area with four people responding with felt reports.
Typhoon Matmo was dissipating directly south of this event in China when
it occurred. Energy from that storm may have helped promote the earthquakes
at this time.
O: 09OCT2025 05:17:40 30.9N 99.9E MW-5.6 EMSC WESTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
An aftershock of M 4.9 occurred today in the region of western Turkey. NEIC reported intensity III in Balikesir, Izmit, Cinarcik, Istanbul, Turkey and in Sipka Bulgaria with II in Turkey at Mudanya, Bursa, Yakuply, Istanbul.
EMSC reported it was felt with moderate shaking in Turkey at Tavsanli, Usak, Gordes, Bolme, Bigadic, Kutahya, Inegol, Yildirim, Mstafakemalapasa, Bursa, Balikesir among others.
O: 08OCT2025 23:54:05 39.2N 29.1E MW-4.9 NEIC WESTERN TURKEY
The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.5 in the western Andreanof Islands, Aleutians, Alaska. NEIC reported it was probably felt with intensity up to II in the epicentral area.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.5 in Central California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central California at the Pinnacles.
This event occurred within a couple of minutes of local solar noon and was likely
promoted by tidal stresses with the full moon of October 7 and/or geomagnetic
stresses which maximize near this hour.
This appears to be an aftershock of an M 3.2 that occurred earlier in the
day near local solar midnight at the same epicenter. It occurred directly
on the San Andreas Fault and may indicate enhanced seismicity in that
area in the near future. This event of M 3.2 was reported
by NEIC to have been felt with intensity III in California at Soledad and II in Salinas, Brisbane, San Bruno and Monterey.
The last earthquake of M>=3.2 within about 50 km of today's event
was listed by NEIC as occurring with M 3.7 on September 1, 2025. At the time
this summary noted:
"A light earthquake of M 3.7 today was widely felt in Central California south of San Francisco. NEIC reported maximum intensity III in Salinas, Carmel Valley, Hollister, San Juan Bautista, and Santa Cruz with II in Irvine, Salinas, Gonzales, Marina, Monterey, Scotts Valley, Watsonville, San Jose, Merced, Modesto, San Ramon, Morgan Hill.
EMSC reported light shaking in Central California at Ridgemark, Hollister, San Juan Bautista, Prunedale, Marina, Santa Cruz, and Oildale.
This earthquake occurred within minutes of local solar noon and may have been
promoted by tidal and/or geomagnetic effects which maximize near this hour.
This event in Central California occurred simultaneously with the start of a major
geomagnetic storm. The GOES magnetometer shows this storm began about 20:30 UT and peaked
at about 21:30 doubling the strength of the geomagnetic field at GOES altitudes
by about double and was responsible for a geomagnetic storm with AP of 6.
The coincidence of this storm at local solar noon with the earthquakes
Central California strongly suggest the earthquake was triggered by this storm.
The last earthquake in Central California within about 100 km of this epicenter
with M>=3.7 occurred on February 22, 2025 with M 3.9 and prior to that on September 29, 2024 (M 4.2).
At the time of the February, 2025 event this summary noted:
"The series in the Salinas area of central California continued today. The largest of these was an M 3.9 which NEIC reported was felt with intensity IV in California at Paicines and III in Salinas, Gonzales, Marina, Seaside, Sunnyvale, Hayward, Aptos, Hollister, San Juan Bautista, Santa Crus with III in Fresno, Carmel, Montery, Soledad, Felton, Scotts Valley and Watsonville.
"NEIC reported earthquakes up to M 3.3 in Central California were felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Central California with intensity II-III in Salinas, Gonzales, Marina, Monterey and II in Fresno and Carmel, California.
Larger earthquakes in this slipping section of the San Andreas often come in series of events with
M3-4 but seldom much larger. This can be expected with today's activity." (February 22, 2025)
and in September, 2024 as:
A moderate earthquake of M 4.2 shook the region south of San Francisco, California today. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Salinas and King City and III in Carmel, Carmel Valley, Kerman and Fresno, California.
This follows a pair of moderate earthquakes off the coast of northern California
yesterday of M 5.1 and 4.6
...
This epicenter in Central California is at the longitude of maximum tidal stress
with the coming new moon of October 2, 2024 and could indicate a busy week
in regional seismicity with the new moon" (September 29, 2024, September 1, 2025)
These epicenters area at 102-103 degrees from the M 7.0 in Leyte, Philippines
and may have been promted by energy from that source.
O: 08OCT2025 19:59:18 36.5N 121.2W MW-2.5 NEIC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 08OCT2025 09:46:19 36.6N 121.2W MW-3.2 NEIC CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
An M 3.4 was widely felt in northern Hawaii today. NEIC reported intensity up to IV in Hawaii at Kapaau with III in Hawi, Honokaa, Waikoloa and Kamuela.
O: 08OCT2025 17:23:53 20.0N 155.8W MW-3.4 NEIC HAWAII REGION
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.8 in Washington State was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Washington State in Seattle, Kingston and Port Angeles.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.6 in Southern California was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern California with III in Desert Hot Springs, Joshua Tree and Yucca Valley and II in Pasadena, Morongo Valley.
NEIC reported earthquakes of M 2.7 and M 2.5 in California-Nevada border were felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of California-Nevada border at Minden Nevada and San Francisco, California.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.8 in Utah was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Utah with III in Heber City, Orem, Provo and II in Springville.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.0 in Southern Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern Alaska wit III in Girdwood, homer and II in Anchorage and Anchor Point.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.7 in Luzon, Philippines was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Luzon, Philippines in Baguio, Binalonan, San Fernando.
TROPICAL STORM NAKRI (29W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS NAKRI 2025-10-09 00:00 UT 24.1N 134.8E 45 kts Ryukyu Islands, Japan
Tropical Storm Nakri continued south of the Ryukyu Islands today with winds up to 45 kts. It also made landfall October 8-9 the northern Ryukyu Islands and may promote seismicity in that area at this time. The antipode is at 27S 48W in an area of the South Atlantic and are not seismic.
HURRICANE PRISCILLA
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR PRISCILLA 2025-10-09 00:00 UT 22.3N 113.3W 70 kts Revilla Gigedo Islands, Mexico
Hurricane Priscilla continued today in area southwest of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 70 kts. It is expected to track to the north. Regional seismicity in the area of Baja California and the Gulf of California could be enhanced at this time. The antipode is at 22S 67E is in the South Indian Ocean and could see moderately enhanced seismicity while this storm is active.
HURRICANE OCTAVE (DEPRESSION 15E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR OCTAVE 2025-10-09 00:00 UT 15.9N 114.0W 50 kts South of Baja, Mexico
Hurricane Octave (depression 15E) continued today in the Pacific south of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 50 kts. It is expected to track to the north and east and not to approach landfall at this time. Regional seismicity is not likely to be enhanced by this storm at this time. The antipode is at 16S 66E is in the South Indian Ocean. This is a minor seismic zone and it could see minor earthquake enhancement in the next several days.
TYPHOON HALONG (DEPRESSION 28W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH HALONG 2025-10-09 00:00 UT 33.6N 143.6E 115 kts Izu Islands, Japan
Typhoon Halong (28W) continued today in the area east of the Izu Islands, Japan with winds up to 115 kts. This system is moving to the northeast and could help promote seismicity in the Izu Islands north to Honshu in the next day. It will turn to the east around October 8 and could promote a moderate to large earthquake in that area east of Japan at the time. The current antipode is at 34S 37W in the South Atlantic and is not expected to see enhanced seismicity at this time.
TROPICAL STORM JERRY
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS JERRY 2025-10-09 00:00 UT 15.7N 57.7W 65 kts East of western Caribbean
Tropical Storm Jerry continued today in the area west of Guadeloupe and the Leeward Islands with winds up to 65 kts. It is expected track to the north and west and could enhancement seismicity in the currently active areas of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in the next couple of days. The antipode is at 16S 123E north of Australia and south of Indonesia, an area where seismic enhancement is possible at this time.
A tropical Cyclone may be forming south of Guatemala and Chiapas, Mexico. This system is currently at 15N 93W and tracking to the north and west. It may enhance seismicity in the area of El Salvador, Guatemala and eastern Mexico in the next several days. The antipode is at 15S 87E and is not expected to see seismic enhancement at this time.
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 8, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
XXXX 0509 0517 0522 C1.7 (October 9, 2025) 9.8E-04
China M 5.6 05:17 UT
7520 0431 0437 0441 C1.9 (October 8, 2025) 8.8E-04
Los Lagos M 3.7 04:33 UT
7530 0504 0515 0529 C1.0 (October 8, 2025) 1.4E-03
Virgin Islands M 3.7 05:12 UT
Halmahera M 4.7 05:20 UT
7560 1236 1248 1302 C1.2 (October 8, 2025) 1.7E-03
Kuril Is. M 4.4 12:41 UT
Leyte M 3.5 12:42 UT
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: unsettled October 9-11. Solar M-flare chance: 40% X-class: 10% proton storm: 10%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 11 18 9 17:00 5 109 131
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 7, 2025 at 19:43:06 UT (#251007B). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
An M 2.1 earthquake in southern Texas occurred at 19:45 UT
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 7, 2025 at 19:36:58 UT (#251007A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
An M 3.6 earthquake in Veracruz Mexico occurred at 19:38 UT
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 5, 2025 at 16:06:53 UT (#251005C). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>19.4 was assigned to this GRB.
An immediate M 3.8 in the Guatemala coincided with this GRB. An M 5.1 earthquake
Kamchatka occurred five minutes earlier.
October 8, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
Seismicity today was marked by enhanced earthquakes near 120 East longitude,
a latitude where the maximum tidal stresses with the full moon of October 7
had been expected. The longitudes from about 95E to 145E are the most likely
affected by these tidal stresses as noted in previous issues of this summary:
"The full moon will arrive at 03:47 UT on October 7, 2025. This is the largest super-moon of the year as it is closest to earth at this time. This in turn, considerably enhances tidal stresses (at the inverse third power of distance) and can lead to larger global earthquakes within a couple of days of the full moon. Longitudes at local solar noon are near 124 East and those at local solar midnight are near 56 West longitude. In the west these include the northern and Eastern Caribbean as well as areas of western South America while in the East longitudes near 126 E are located in the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and Indonesia among others. These are the most likely areas to see tidal triggering at this time, but other areas could see significant enhancement in seismicity in the next several days. These would most likely see seismic enhancement near local solar noon or midnight. A strong to major earthquake is considered likely with this new moon before October 8, 2025.
This includes the aftershock area of the earthquake of M 6.9 in the Philiippines of September 30 (at 124E longitude) and is likely to enhance regional seismicity in that area at this time." (October 2-9, 2025)
Moderate earthquakes today were recorded as an M 4.4 and M 5.3 in Taiwan (121E); an M 4.9 in the northern Ryukyu Islands, Japan (129E)
These follow a strong M 6.7 in Papua New Guinea (146E) and a series off northeastern
Honshu, Japan of M 5.0-5.5 (144E) which were discussed in the previous
issue of this summary. Readers are referred to that as reference.
In the previous issues of this summary a small experiment was performed.
Within minutes of a C9.1 solar flare this summary issued a "prediction" for
a minor earthquake in the area of Central California, and expecially in the
area near San Francisco as follows:
"A moderately large solar flare of C9.1 class has just occurred (at 20:00 UT).
The area of California is near local solar noon at this time. In recent days
moderate flares such as this have been followed by light to moderate felt earthquakes
in California. These have often occurred about an hour later in the San Francisco Bay region with M 2.0-3.0.
If such an earthquake occurs in the next two hours, it should come as no
surpise to readers of this summary.
Data on this flare from SWPC follow:
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
7510 1955 2007 2021 C9.1 (October 7, 2025) 8.3E-03*
Molucca Sea M 4.3 20:20 UT
" (October 7, 2025)
Within an hour after this prediction was first issued publicly in this summary
an earthquake of M 2.1 did occur in the general area of San Francisco, California,
consistent with the expected earthquake as follows:
O: 07OCT2025 21:36:04 37.5N 121.7W MB=2.1 NEIC SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA
This is the first "prediction" for an event within a limited area and time
of this type made in this summary. But it was based on data. In the past month
the largest earthquakes in this area have generally occurred within about
an hour of local solar noon, occasionally in conjunction with a C- or higher class
solar flare. These included the following:
9 10 20 27 45 2025 36.532 -121.158 7.4 2.8 10
9 15 22 0 8 2025 37.941 -121.850 7.5 3.3 10
9 17 22 39 39 2025 38.114 -121.805 4.9 2.2 10
9 24 19 4 9 2025 38.128 -122.159 3.0 2.1 10
9 28 21 12 37 2025 37.843 -121.997 9.1 2.1 10
9 29 23 32 23 2025 37.422 -121.896 2.1 2.2 10
9 30 18 26 16 2025 37.589 -122.467 9.5 2.4 10
9 30 18 27 51 2025 36.559 -121.117 8.7 2.0 10
10 2 19 40 37 2025 38.124 -122.159 2.9 2.1 10
10 4 21 20 55 2025 37.592 -122.465 9.1 2.2 10
10 7 21 36 4 2025 37.451 -121.718 16.5 2.1 10
10 8 18 50 9 2025 36.893 -121.616 1.0 2.0 10
10 8 19 59 18 2025 36.572 -121.202 5.4 2.5 10
Of the 35 events in the past month of M>=2.1 fourteen occurred within about
1.5 hours of local solar noon. For this time frame of three hours in a random
sample only 4-5 would be expected, so this is well above the expected
number suggesting a periodic trigger may be involved - perhaps tidal stresses.
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.7 in Central Vanuatu. It was not reported felt in this area.
This earthquake occurred near local solar noon and may have been promoted
by today's full moon tidal stresses.
This epicenter is at 102 degrees from the North Geomagnetic pole and 52 degrees from
the South Geomagnetic pole and may have been promoted by energy associated with the recent strong geomagnetic storm. It is also at the
seventh node (51 degrees) from the M 7.0 in Leyte Philippines and may have
been promoted by energy associated with that source.
O: 07OCT2025 22:36:21 15.6S 168.2E MB=5.7 NEIC VANUATU
The second strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.4 in the South Sandwich Islands region. It was not reported felt in this remote epicentral area.
This continues a series of moderately strong earthquakes in this region nearly
antipodal to Kamchatka which have been occurring since the major earthquakes
in Kamchatka began in July, 2025. The last of the moderately large earthquakes
in this region of the South Sandwich Islands occurred on September 19, 2025 with
M 5.4. At the time this summary noted:
"The current swarm of earthquakes in and near the South Sandwich Islands south of South America continued today. An M 5.0 at a new epicenter was recorded but not reported felt east of the South Sandwich Islands but about 100 km north of a swarm recorded earlier on September 19.
This joins a series of earthquakes earlier in the day southeast of this as reported
in the previous issue of this summary:
"The Scotia Sea is not the only seismic active area nearly antipodal to the
area of Kamchatka, Russia. The most active area in this region is the South
Sandwich Islands. Early on September 19 a series of moderate to moderately
large earthquake hit this region, but because of its remoteness were not
reported felt. These events began with an M 5.4 and were followed by events of M 4.8 and M 4.9.
The South Sandwich Islands often show enhanced seismicity with major
events in Kamchatka but today's events occurred further to the west
than typical moderate earthquakes in the area and are closer to antipodal
to Kamchatka than usual. An event of M<=5.4 hit this far to the east in the
South Sandwich Islands last on February 14, 2024 with M 5.4 and M 5.7. But this
is the exception not the rule for moderately large seismicity in the
South Sandwich Islands. At the time this summary noted:
"A moderately large earthquake also occurred today in the South Sandwich Islands
with M 5.7. It was followed by an aftershock of M 5.2 twelve minutes later
which was probably triggered by PcS reflections from the mainshock. These
are seismic pulses which reflect off the core back to the original epicenter.
Larger aftershocks often occur at this time after the mainshock in most areas
of the world (also see ScS and PcP times near 8 and 15 minutes after the mainshock).
The last earthquake with M>=5.7 within about 200 km of today's epicenter occurred asan
M 5.8 on November 30, 2023. At the time this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 5.8 in the South Sandwich Islands. This event was not reported felt in this remote area.
A major earthquake of M 7.5 hit about 200 km southeast of today's epicenter on August 12, 2021 but hte last
earthquake within this range of today's event with equal of larger magnitude
was recorded on August 18 and December 7, 2021 with M 5.8-5.9.
Today's event was probably promoted by geomagnetic effects which maximize
near the geomagnetic equator and at high latitudes." (December 1, 2023)
This is similar environmental conditions as current and is probably related
to the timing of earthquakes in this area." (February 14, 2024, September 18-19, 2025)
Today's events in the South Sandwich Islands area in the antipodal area of
the major events in Kamchatka and may have been promoted by energy from that source." (September 19, 2025)
O: 08OCT2025 03:50:46 57.8S 24.2W MB=5.4 NEIC SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
An M 5.1 also occurred today in Taiwan near the longitude of maximum tidal stress with
the full moon of October 7. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity V in Hualien, Taiwan. But CWB.
the local Taiwanese seismic network recorded two separate events of M 5.0 each.
The later of these was reported by CWB with intensity III in Hualien and Taitung Counties with I in Nantou, Yilan, Taichung, Chiayi, Changhua, Hsinchu and Tainan Counties.
The first was reported with IV in Hualien County and III in Nantou; II in Taichung, Yilan and Yunlin and I in Taitung, Taoyuan, Chiayi, Hsinchu, Changhua, Miaoli, Taipei, Tainan, Kaohsiung and Pingtung Counties, Taiwan.
The last earthquake NEIC listed in Taiwan with M>5.1 occurred as an M
5.3 on August 27, 2025. At the time this summary noted:
"A moderately strong earthquake of M 5.3 (EMSC) to M 6.0 (CWB) occurred today in northern Taiwan. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity IV in Taiwan at Ilan, Taipei; III in Hsinchu, and II in Changhwa and Taichung.
CWB reported intensity IV in Yilan, Taipei, III in Taoyuan, Hualien, Hsinchu, Miaoli, Nantou and II in Keelung City, Changhua, Yunlin, Chiayi, Taitung, Tainan and Kaohsiung areas.
Taiwan has been hit by several typhoons in the past week included Lingling
and Kajiki and may have been set up for this seismicity by energy from those events.
This epicenter is at 144 degrees from the M 7.5 in the Drake Passage of
August 22 and was probably promoted by energy from that source.
The last earthquake of M>=6 in Taiwan occurred as an M 6.0 on January 20, 2025.
At the time this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.0 (CWB gives this M 6.4) in Taiwan. NEIC reported this earthquake was felt with damage and intensity up to VIII in Taiwan at Tainan with VI in Chiayi, Nantou, Taichung, Yunlin; V in Changhua, Chiayi, Hsinchu, JKaohsiung, Nantou, Pngtung, IV in Taipei, Taoyuan, and III in mainland China in Fujian, Hong Kong, Hangzhou and Hefei among others.
EMSC reported significant shaking in Zhongpu Township, Beigang, Wuri District, Nantun District, Zhudong, Zhongzheng, Da'an, Beitou, Tamsui, and Yuanshan Townships and in Fuzhou Citym China,
TAI reported intensity VI in Chiayi, V in Tainan, Kaohsiung; IV in Chiayi, Yunlin, Taitung, Nantou, Pingtung, Hualien, Changhua, Taichung, Penghu, III in Miaoli, Yilan, Hsinchu; II in Taoyuan, Taipei, and Lienchiang Counties, Taiwan.
A number of aftershocks were recorded - up to 50 at this writing. A fire broke out in a printing facility in Chiayi City but there were no reports
of injuries with this fire.
News reports are that some TSMC, a computer chip maker, closed its plant down due to the
earthquake. Shaking can cause errors in computer chips and adjustment
following earthquakes is often necessary. Initial reports indicate up to 27 injuries in mountainous areas and damage to
items falling. Six were rescued from a collapsed house in Nanxi District in Tainan City. The Zhuwei Bridge was also damaged. The earthquake occurred near local solar midnight and was probably
promoted by strong tidal and/or geomagnetic effects which maximize near this hour.
The last earthquake in Taiwan of M>=6.4 within about 250 km of today's
epicenter occurred on April 4, 2024 as an M 7.4 with an aftershock of M 6.4 on
April 3, 2024. At the time this summary noted:
"A major M 7.4 earthquake damaged much of the Island of Taiwan today. International Press reports indicated that this event and several
strong aftershocks killed at least 7 while injuring more than 700. The quake
occurred about 20 km south of Hualien and damaged and toppled buildings while
causing many damaging landslides. It is the strongest earthquake to hit
Taiwan in at least 25 years - since September 20, 1999 (M 7.7) - the strongest
event in Taiwan in the past 35 years. Major earthquakes have most recently
hit with M>=7.5 in Taiwan on November 14, 1986 (M 7.8); July 24, 1978 (M 8.0); April 24, 1972 (M 7.7) and January 25, 1972 (M 7.7)." (April 3, 2024, January 20, 2025, August 29, 2025)
This epicenter may have been promoted by energy from the last geomagnetic
storm as it lies at the fourth node (909 degrees) from the South Geomagnetic Pole and
at the sixth node (60 degrees) from the North Geomagnetic pole.
O: 07OCT2025 23:52:12 23.9N 121.6E ML=5.1 NEIC HUALIEN, TAIWAN
O: 07OCT2025 23:52:12 24.0N 121.5E ML=5.0 CWB HUALIEN, TAIWAN
O: 08OCT2025 03:33:54 23.5N 122.0E ML=5.0 CWB HUALIEN, TAIWAN
A moderate earthquake of M 4.6 occurred in southern Peru today. NEIC reported it was probably felt with light intensity in the area of San Juan, Peru.
This event is at the antipode of the dissipation of Typhoon Matmo.
"TYPH MATMO 2025-10-06 00:00 UT 19.0N 108.4E 80 kts Vietnam" (October 6, 2025)
Typhoon Matmo continued today making landfall in Vietnam with winds up to 80 kts. It is made landfall October 3 in Luzon and northern Philippines as a typhoon. Regional seismicity and aftershocks from the Leyte M 7.0 event occurred in northern Luzon as this storm passed through. The antipode is at 19S 72W in an area of northern Chile and southern Peru where seismicity could be enhanced at this time." (October 6, 2025)
Typhoon Berloi also dissipated over the antipode to this epicenter in Peru
early in October and may have contributed energy helping promote today's event in Peru as described at the time:
"Typhoon Burloi (26W) continued today after making landfall in Vietnam with winds up to 100 kts where it did considerable damage. It is expected to track to the west in the next several days dissipating in the next two days. . The Antipode at 18S 74W ... will pass over southern Peru and Tarapaca and Arica, Chile and elevated seismicity is likely in that area in the next several days." (September 29-October 1, 2025)"
O: 07OCT2025 23:00:06 16.0S 75.4W ML=4.6 NEIC SOUTHERN PERU
Another of the moderate to moderately strong earthquakes near 124 East longitude,
occurred today as an M 5.3 in the northern Ryukyu Islands of Japan. It was not
reported felt in this epicentral area. The last earthquake within about 200
km of this epicenter with M>=5.3 occurred at the end of a swarm of moderately
strong earthquakes in late June to early July, 2025 as an M 5.5 on July 6, 2025.
"A moderately strong earthquake of M 5.6 occurred in the currently active swarm in the northern Ryukyu Islands, Japan. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity II in Kagoshima, Japan.
This event is the largest in a series of events of M>=5 in the region today. Some of these may
have been felt in Kagoshima and the northern Ryukyu Islands. The swarm has been
active for at least a week and could see a strong tsunamigenic earthquake
in the next week. This may be related to an eruption of Shinmoedake volcano in Takaharu in Miyazaki Prefecture
which has been ongoing during this period." (July 6, 2025)
O: 07OCT2025 21:38:37 29.2N 129.4E ML=5.3 NEIC RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.4 in Northern Nevada was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Northern Nevada with III in Winnemucca.
TROPICAL STORM NAKRI (29W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS NAKRI 2025-10-08 00:00 UT 27.1N 131.8E 45 kts Ryukyu Islands, Japan
Tropical Storm Nakri continued south of the Ryukyu Islands today with winds up to 45 kts. It also made landfall October 8-9 the northern Ryukyu Islands and may promote seismicity in that area at this time. The antipode is at 27S 48W in an area of the South Atlantic and are not seismic.
HURRICANE PRISCILLA
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR PRISCILLA 2025-10-08 00:00 UT 20.0N 110.0W 100 kts Revilla Gigedo Islands, Mexico
Hurricane Priscilla continued today in area over the Revilla Gidedo Islands south of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 100 kts. It is expected to track to the north and west. Regional seismicity in the area of Baja California and the Gulf of California could be enhanced at this time. The antipode is at 19S 71E is in the South Indian Ocean and could see moderately enhanced seismicity while this storm is active.
HURRICANE OCTAVE (DEPRESSION 15E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR OCTAVE 2025-10-08 00:00 UT 16.9N 120.0W 55 kts South of Baja, Mexico
Hurricane Octave (depression 15E) continued today in the Pacific south of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 55 kts. It is expected to track to the north and east and not to approach landfall at this time. Regional seismicity is not likely to be enhanced by this storm at this time. The antipode is at 16S 60E is in the South Indian Ocean. This is a minor seismic zone and it could see minor earthquake enhancement in the next several days.
TYPHOON HALONG (DEPRESSION 28W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH HALONG 2025-10-08 00:00 UT 28.1N 137.3E 140 kts West of Bonin Islands, Japan
Typhoon Halong (28W) continued today in the area west of the Bonin Islands, Japan with winds up to 140 kts. This system is moving to the northeast and could help promote seismicity in the Bonin Islands north to Honshu in the next day. It will turn to the east around October 8 and with the full moon could promote a moderate to large earthquake in that area of Japan at the time. The current antipode is at 28S 43W in the South Atlantic and is not expected to see enhanced seismicity at this time.
TROPICAL STORM JERRY
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS JERRY 2025-10-08 00:00 UT 14.0N 52.5W 60 kts Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
Tropical Storm Jerry continued today in the area of the North mid-Atlantic Ridge with winds up to 55 kts. This system is moving to the northwest and could help promote seismicity in the northeastern Caribbean at this time. It will track to the west reaching the Virgin Islands as a hurricane around October 10 and could promote a moderate earthquake in that area of of the north-eastern Caribbean at the time. The current antipode is at 16S 123E in the region north of Australia where light earthquakes could occur at this time.
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 6, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
7460 1100 1129 1134 C5.6 (October 7, 2025) 2.5E-03*
Papua New Guinea M 6.6 11:05 UT
New Zealand M 3.5 1:12 UT
Hindu Kush M 5.1 11:35 UT
Central California M 2.3 11:19 UT
7510 1955 2007 2021 C9.1 (October 7, 2025) 8.3E-03*
Molucca Sea M 4.3 20:20 UT
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: minor storms October 8 unsettled October 9-10. Solar M-flare chance: 40% X-class: 10% proton storm: 10%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 15 33 14 15:00 6 67 120
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 7, 2025 at 19:43:06 UT (#251007B). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
An M 2.1 earthquake in southern Texas occurred at 19:45 UT
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 7, 2025 at 19:36:58 UT (#251007A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude was not assigned to this GRB.
An M 3.6 earthquake in Veracruz Mexico occurred at 19:38 UT
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 5, 2025 at 16:06:53 UT (#251005C). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>19.4 was assigned to this GRB.
An immediate M 3.8 in the Guatemala coincided with this GRB. An M 5.1 earthquake
Kamchatka occurred five minutes earlier.
October 7, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
The full moon (Supermoon) arrived today (October 7, 2025) at 03:47 UT. This
summary had previously anticipated this alignment's effect on global seismicity
as:
"The full moon will arrive at 03:47 UT on October 7, 2025. This is the largest super-moon of the year as it is closest to earth at this time. This in turn, considerably enhances tidal stresses (at the inverse third power of distance) and can lead to larger global earthquakes within a couple of days of the full moon. Longitudes at local solar noon are near 124 East and those at local solar midnight are near 56 West longitude. In the west these include the northern and Eastern Caribbean as well as areas of western South America while in the East longitudes near 126 E are located in the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and Indonesia among others. These are the most likely areas to see tidal triggering at this time, but other areas could see significant enhancement in seismicity in the next several days. These would most likely see seismic enhancement near local solar noon or midnight. A strong to major earthquake is considered likely with this new moon before October 8, 2025.
This includes the aftershock area of the earthquake of M 6.9 in the Philiippines of September 30 (at 124E longitude) and is likely to enhance regional seismicity in that area at this time." (October 2-7, 2025)
Seismicity in the world today reflected this expectation. The largest earthquake
in the world was an M 6.6-6.7 in New Guinea at 146 East longitude near the maximum
expected tidal stress longitude. This was preceded by a strong swarm in the
eastern Caribbean with moderate quakes in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (at 64-67 West longitude).
A swarm of events with magnitude up to M 5.1 also occurred off the coast of
Honshu, Japan (at 144 East longitude) following an M 4.9 in the Leyte, Philippines
aftershock zone (at 124 East longitude) and an M 4.1 in the Bonin Islands,
Japan (at 144 East longitude). These and other events today probably
were promoted by tidal stresses associated with today's super (full) moon.
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.6-6.7 in Papua New Guinea
east of Indonesia. NEIC reported it was felt in Papua New Guinea with maximum intensity VI in the Eastern Highlands at Kainantu and IV in Goroka, and Mount Hagen and V in the Morobe area at Lae, Wau and in the national Capital at Port Moresby with IV. Also felt with III in the north Solomons at Panguna and II in Balimo, Fly River and Kundiawa, Simbu, Papua New Guinea.
EMSC reported strong shaking in Papua New Guinea at Lae, Popondetta, Port Moresby.
This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter since
a pair of events of M 6.7 and M 6.9 on October 7, 2023, exactly two years ago today. At the time this
summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.9 in Papua New Guinea.
It was followed by an M 6.7 and several moderate events of M>=5.
An M 5.1 aftershock was felt in Madang and Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.
Other events in the series were not initially given intensities by NEIC however some felt data
comes from Madang, PNG. No tsunami was reported as this epicenter is inland near
the coast.
...
The earthquakes in New Guinea coincided with a moderate solar flare (#5480)
and may have been promoted by SFE associated with that flare.
...
An M 7.0 occurred about 350 km north of today's epicenter on April 2, 2023.
At the time this summary noted:
"The last earthquake of M>=6 in this area of Papua was an M 6.0 on January 18, 2020.
but no earthquake larger size than this have been recorded in this area since
an M 6.7 on January 10, 2002. ... This epicenter is at 103 degrees from the mainshocks in
Turkey and was probably promoted by energy from those sources." (February 9, 2023, April 2, 2023, October 7, 2023)
Today's event occurred shortly after the full moon arrived with maximum stress
in this area and near the geomagnetic equator.
A foreshock of M 4.9 south of this epiceter occurred earlier in the day. NEIC reported it
was felt iwth intensity III in Port Moresby, Papaa New Guinea.
This earthquake may have also been promoted by SFE from a moderately strong
solar flare as it occurred at the beginning of that C5.6 flare. Preliminary
data from SWPC for this flare follow:
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
7460 1100 1129 1134 C5.6 (October 7, 2025) 2.5E-03*
Papua New Guinea M 6.6 11:05 UT
New Zealand M 3.5 1:12 UT
Hindu Kush M 5.1 11:35 UT
Central California M 2.3 11:19 UT
This epicenter was at the antipode to Tropical Storm Jerry two days ago as noted
in this summary:
"TS JERRY 2025-10-07 00:00 UT 12.0N 44.5W 45 kts Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
Tropical Storm Jerry continued today in the area of the North mid-Atlantic Ridge with winds up to 45 kts. This system is moving to the northwest and could help promote seismicity in the northern mid-Atlantic at this time. It will track to the west reaching the Virgin Islands as a hurricane around October 10 and could promote a moderate earthquake in that area of of the north-eastern Caribbean at the time. The current antipode is at 12S 135E in the region of New Guinea. This storm passed over 8N 35W two days ago. This is antipodal to the epicenter of the M 6.6 in New Guinea today and may have helped promote that event. Further antipodal activity is possible as this storm tracks to the west." (October 6-7, 2025)
and
"A moderate M 5.0 earthquake occurred in the northern Mid-Atlantic today. It
was not reported felt in this remote area. It occurred as a new tropical
cyclone was passing over the epicenter as reported in this summary:
"A tropical cyclone may be forming in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. This system is currently located by NHC at 13N 44W and moving to the west with winds up to 30 kts. NHC gives this 70% chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next several days." (October 6, 2025)
O: 06OCT2025 05:10:03 13.2N 44.6W MB=5.0 NEIC NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC" (October 6, 2025)
Today's epicenter in New Guinea is at the sixth node (60 degrees) from
major earthquakes in Kamchatka and like many other recent earthquakes at this
distance from Kamchatka was likely promoted by energy from that source.
It was also likely promoted by the recent major geomagnetic storm as it
lies at the sixth node from the South Geomagnetic Pole and at the fourth node
(90 degrees) from the North Geomagnetic Pole.
O: 07OCT2025 11:05:17 6.8S 146.8E Mw=6.6 NEIC PAPUA NEW GUINEA
O: 07OCT2025 11:05:17 6.8S 146.8E Mw=6.7 EMSC PAPUA NEW GUINEA
O: 07OCT2025 11:05:19 6.8S 146.9E Mw=6.7 BMG PAPUA NEW GUINEA
O: 06OCT2025 17:11:08 8.1S 148.5E Mw=4.9 NEIC PAPUA NEW GUINEA
A light earthquake series occurred today in the Tonopah, Nevada area. The maximum magnitude in this series was an M 3.7. NEIC reported it was probably felt in the Tonopah, Nevada area with intensity up to III.
This epicenter is at 104 degrees from the M 7.0 in Leyte, Philippines and
was probably promoted by energy from that source.
O: 07OCT2025 09:14:40 38.4N 116.5W Mw=3.7 NEIC NEVADA
Two series of earthquakes also occurred today in the areas of the eastern Caribbean near the
Virgin Islands and near southern Puerto Rico and were probably promoted by the
full moon tides. The events in Puerto were reported by NEIC to have been
felt with intensity up to II in Sabana Grande, Puerto Rico Arroyo and Cauguas
and III in Ensenada.
O: 06OCT2025 16:50:51 19.1N 64.7W Mw=3.6 NEIC VIRGIN ISLANDS
O: 07OCT2025 05:46:14 19.3N 64.8W Mw=3.8 NEIC VIRGIN ISLANDS
O: 07OCT2025 05:19:11 17.8N 66.9W Mw=3.6 NEIC PUERTO RICO
O: 07OCT2025 02:01:20 17.8N 66.9W Mw=3.7 NEIC PUERTO RICO
On the other side of the world near local solar noon with the full moon, an M 4.9
occurred near Santa Monica, Philippines. This followed an M 4.8 in Mindanao,
Philippines minutes earlier. NEIC did not reported felt information for
either of these earthquakes but PHIVOLCS reported intensity IV in the City of Bogo, Cebu, Philippines. An earthquake of M 4.9 in the Panay/Cebu region of the Philippines,
however, was reported to have been felt with intensity II in Bayawan, Central Visayas, Philippines.
PHIVOLCS reported the M 5.1 in Panay with intensity III in City of Sipalay and Cauayan, ?Negros Occidental; II in the city of Iloilo, and I in Candoni, Negros Occidental.
O: 07OCT2025 04:55:50 10.1N 126.5E Mw=4.9 NEIC PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
O: 07OCT2025 04:14:03 5.5N 126.4E Mw=4.8 NEIC MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
O: 07OCT2025 00:03:59 10.0N 122.1E Mw=4.9 NEIC PANAY, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
O: 07OCT2025 00:03:59 9.9N 122.0E Mw=5.1 PHIV NEGROS OCCIDENTAL, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
A strong series of moderate earthquakes also occurred off the eastern Coast of
Honshu, Japan today. These had been expected at this time in this summary (see above)
with the full moon. The largest of these was an M 5.1 which occurred far east
of Honshu and was accompanied by a series of moderate foreshocks and aftershocks.
Some of these including an M 5.1 nearer the coast of Japan were widely felt as
reported by NEIC with III in Fukushima, Ibaraki, Miyagi, Tochigi Prefectures
and II in Kanagawa, and Tokyo and specifically in Tokyo, Komae, Tomiya, Kawasaki, Narashino, Itsunomiya, Sendai, Mito and Koriyama.
Some of these including an M 4.9 and M 4.8 ocurred near local midnight
and may have been promoted by tidal and/or geomagnetic stresses which maximize
near this hour. The last earthquake of M>=5 in this area off eastern Honshu
this far to the east was an M 5.5 on August 7, 2018. and before that an M 5.8 on
November 12, 2017. At the time this summary noted:
"A moderately large earthquake of M 5.6 occurred off the east coast of Honshu, Japan today. This
epicenter is near that of the great quake of March 11, 2011 (M>9). NEIC reported
today's earthquake was felt with intensity II-III in Natori and Sendai, Miyagi; in Ibaraki in Hitachi, Tokai, Naka, Toride and in Tokyo, Japan.
Today's activity had been expected in the previous issue of this summary and prior
to that as a promoted quake from Typhoon Shanshan which passed over today's
epicenter today as:
"As TS Shanshan moves north it may encounter the Kuril Islands around August 9-10 but this is unlikely since
it is expected veer to the east after reaching Tokyo. A moderate to strong induced earthquake
in the region of Tokyo is possible as Shanshan passes by the area." (August 5-6, 2018)
The last earthquake of M>=5.6 within about 200 km of this epicenter was an M 5.8 on November 12, 2017 and prior to that events of M 6.0 and 6.1 on October 6, 2017 and September 20, 2017." (August 7, 2025)
This activity in Japan could also be related to a strong typhoon with winds up to
140 kts currently south of Honshu (Typhoon Halong). This summary in this
and previous issues had identified the risk to Honshu from this storm as:
"TYPH HALONG 2025-10-07 00:00 UT 28.1N 137.3E 140 kts West of Bonin Islands, Japan
Typhoon Halong (28W) continued today in the area west of the Bonin Islands, Japan with winds up to 140 kts. This system is moving to the northeast and could help promote seismicity in the Bonin Islands north to Honshu in the next day. It will turn to the east around October 8 and with the full moon could promote a moderate to large earthquake in that area of Japan at the time. The current antipode is at 28S 43W in the South Atlantic and is not expected to see enhanced seismicity at this time." (October 6-7, 2025)
These earthquake are located at 102 degrees from the South Geomagnetic Pole
and were probably promoted by energy from the recent major geomagnetic storm.
O: 07OCT2025 01:42:51 37.7N 144.1E Mw=4.6 NEIC OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
O: 06OCT2025 18:25:05 37.9N 144.1E Mw=4.7 NEIC OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
O: 06OCT2025 14:57:59 37.8N 144.2E Mw=4.9 NEIC OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
O: 06OCT2025 14:20:28 37.8N 144.0E Mw=4.8 NEIC OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
O: 06OCT2025 20:02:43 27.3N 140.2E Mw=4.1 EMSC BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN
A moderately strong earthquake of M 5.6 also occurred today in the Fiji Islands
at a deep focus. NEIC did not report any felt effects for this remote earthquake.
This earthquake occurred within a few minutes of local solar midnight and was probably
promoted by strong tidal stresses associated with today's full moon which
maximize near this hour.
This epicenter is located at the sixth node (60 degrees) from the Leyte, Philippines
M 7.0 and was probably promoted by energy from that source. It is also at
the seventh node from the South Geomagnetic Pole (51 degrees) and was
likely promoted by energy from the last major geomagnetic storm.
O: 06OCT2025 12:08:42 21.1S 175.6E Mw=5.6 NEIC SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
The strongest earthquake felt in the U.S. or Canada today occurred as an M 3.9
in Baja California, Mexico. NEIC reported it was felt in California with intensity III in El Cajon, La Jolla and II in Chula Vista, Lakeside, San Diego, and Spring Valley.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Tijuana, Mexico.
O: 06OCT2025 16:53:27 31.3N 116.2W Mw=3.9 NEIC BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
O: 06OCT2025 16:53:27 31.3N 116.2W Mw=4.0 EMSC BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
An earthquake of M 4.0 also occurred today in the Revilla Gigedo Islands of
western Mexico. It was not reported felt in this remote area. This event
may have been promoted by strong energy associated with Hurricane Priscilla
which was over this epicenter at the time of this earthquake as noted in this
and previous issues of this summary:
"HURR PRISCILLA 2025-10-07 00:00 UT 19.0N 109.0W 100 kts Revilla Gigedo Islands, Mexico
Hurricane Priscilla continued today in area over the Revilla Gidedo Islands south of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 100 kts. It is expected to track to the north and west. Regional seismicity in the area of Baja California and the Gulf of California could be enhanced at this time. The antipode is at 19S 71E is in the South Indian Ocean and could see moderately enhanced seismicity while this storm is active." (October 6-7, 2025)
and
"HURR PRISCILLA 2025-10-07 00:00 UT 17.0N 107.2W 90 kts South of Gulf of California
Hurricane Priscilla continued today in area southeast of Baja California, Mexico and west of Jalisco Mexico with winds up to 90 kts. It is expected to track to the north and west. Regional seismicity in the area of Baja California and the Gulf of California could be enhanced at this time. The antipode is at 17S 73E is in the South Indian Ocean and could see moderately enhanced seismicity while this storm is active." (October 6-7, 2025)
O: 06OCT2025 16:28:12 19.4N 109.0W Mw=4.0 NEIC REVILLA GIGEGO ISLANDS REGION
BMG reported an M 5.5 earthquake near southern Sumatra today.
BMG reported moderate intensity in Tidak ada Wilayah Terdampak, Indonesia
O: 06OCT2025 10:11:54 00.8N 92.5E Mw=5.5 BMG WEST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
O: 06OCT2025 10:11:57 00.9N 92.8E Mw=4.9 EMSC WEST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
TYPHOON MATMO (27W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH MATMO 2025-10-07 00:00 UT 21.9N 108.5E 80 kts Vietnam
Typhoon Matmo made landfall in Vietnam with winds up to 80 kts. It also made landfall October 3 in Luzon and northern Philippines as a typhoon. Regional seismicity and aftershocks from the Leyte M 7.0 event occurred in northern Luzon as this storm passed through. The antipode is at 21S 71W in an area of northern Chile near Tarapaca and Antofagasta where seismicity could be enhanced at this time.
HURRICANE PRISCILLA
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR PRISCILLA 2025-10-07 00:00 UT 19.0N 109.0W 100 kts Revilla Gigedo Islands, Mexico
Hurricane Priscilla continued today in area over the Revilla Gidedo Islands south of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 100 kts. It is expected to track to the north and west. Regional seismicity in the area of Baja California and the Gulf of California could be enhanced at this time. The antipode is at 19S 71E is in the South Indian Ocean and could see moderately enhanced seismicity while this storm is active.
HURRICANE OCTAVE (DEPRESSION 15E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR OCTAVE 2025-10-07 00:00 UT 15.9N 119.8W 55 kts South of Baja, Mexico
Hurricane Octave (depression 15E) continued today in the Pacific south of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 55 kts. It is expected to track to the north and east and not to approach landfall at this time. Regional seismicity is not likely to be enhanced by this storm at this time. The antipode is at 16S 60E is in the South Indian Ocean. This is a minor seismic zone and it could see minor earthquake enhancement in the next several days.
TYPHOON HALONG (DEPRESSION 28W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH HALONG 2025-10-07 00:00 UT 28.1N 137.3E 140 kts West of Bonin Islands, Japan
Typhoon Halong (28W) continued today in the area west of the Bonin Islands, Japan with winds up to 140 kts. This system is moving to the northeast and could help promote seismicity in the Bonin Islands north to Honshu in the next day. It will turn to the east around October 8 and with the full moon could promote a moderate to large earthquake in that area of Japan at the time. The current antipode is at 28S 43W in the South Atlantic and is not expected to see enhanced seismicity at this time.
TROPICAL STORM JERRY
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS JERRY 2025-10-07 00:00 UT 12.0N 44.5W 45 kts Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
Tropical Storm Jerry continued today in the area of the North mid-Atlantic Ridge with winds up to 45 kts. This system is moving to the northwest and could help promote seismicity in the northern mid-Atlantic at this time. It will track to the west reaching the Virgin Islands as a hurricane around October 10 and could promote a moderate earthquake in that area of of the north-eastern Caribbean at the time. The current antipode is at 12S 135E in the region of New Guinea. This storm passed over 8N 35W two days ago. This is antipodal to the epicenter of the M 6.6 in New Guinea today and may have helped promote that event. Further antipodal activity is possible as this storm tracks to the west.
A tropical cyclone may be forming in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. This system is currently located by NHC at 13N 44W and moving to the west with winds up to 30 kts. NHC gives this 70% chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next several days.
A tropical cyclone may be forming near Guam. This system is currednly located at 14N 144E north of Guam with winds up to 23 kts and moving to the northwest. Some enhanced seismicity in the area of Guam and the Mariana Islands is possible with this storm. The antipode at 15S 36W is not a seismic area.
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 6, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
XXXX 1100 1129 1134 C5.6 (October 7, 2025) 2.5E-03 *
Papua New Guinea M 6.6 11:05 UT
Hindu Kush M 5.1 11:35 UT
Central California M 2.3 11:19 UT
7340 0838 0849 0924 C1.9 (October 6, 2025) 4.6E-03
7350 1225 1231 1237 C1.7 (October 6, 2025) 1.2E-03
7380 1513 1521 1527 C1.5 (October 6, 2025) 1.2E-03
7400 1955 2007 2022 C1.2 (October 6, 2025) 1.9E-03
Kamchatla M 4.9 19:59 UT
Bonin Is. M 4.1 20:02 UT
Central California M 2.5 20:17 UT
Southeern Texas M 2.5 20:23 UT
7410 2022 2037 2044 C5.1 (October 6, 2025) 4.4E-03
Southern Texas M 2.5 20:23 UT
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: unsettled October 9 minor storms October 7-8. Solar M-flare chance: 40% X-class: 10% proton storm: 10%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 6 5 5 13:00 3 136 133
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 5, 2025 at 16:06:53 UT (#251005C). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>19.4 was assigned to this GRB.
An immediate M 3.8 in the Guatemala coincided with this GRB. An M 5.1 earthquake
Kamchatka occurred five minutes earlier.
October 6, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
The strong geomagnetic storm of the past week finally dissipated today with
planetary A index down to a quiet 9. This should allow seismicity to become
stronger in the next several days as telluric currents can again be generated
by induction from newly formed ionospheric ring currents. The most widely
felt earthquake today was an M 4.9 in Central Italy. As this earthquake
occurred within minutes of local solar noon (one respondent to EMSC noted it was 12:15), it is likely it was promoted
by tidal and/or geomagnetic effects which maximize near this hour.
EMSC reported this earthquake was felt with strong shaking in Italy at Senigallia, Fano, Bellocchi, Falconara Marittima, Ancona, Le Grazie di Ancona, Posatora, Pietra la Croce, Rio Salso-Case Bernardi, Arcevia, and in Rab, Pag, Zadar, Buzdohanj, Knin, Split, Croatia and as far as Slovenia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
This is the strongest earthquake in Central or northern Italy within about 200
km of this epicenter since an M 4.7 on November 20, 2022 - an aftershock of an M t.6 of
November 9, 2022. At that time this summary noted in this regard:
"The earthquake of M 5.6-5.7 in Italy and the Adriatic Sea today was reported
by NEIC to have been felt with damage in Marken Italy at Mondolfo and VII in Fano. Intensity VI was also felt
in Montarado, Pesaro and IV in Senigallia, Morro d'Alba, Ancona and Orciano with lesser
shaking in Monsano. An earthquake of M 4.5 occurred earlier in the day in Northern Italy near Portofino
and was lightly felt in the epicentral area according to EMSC. BBC reported this
earthquake was lightly felt in the area with some moderate damage in Central Italy.
No major damage was reported. Cracks appeared in some buildings. The quake was
felt in Italy, Slovenia, Croatia and San Marino and Bosnia and Herzegovina. A number
of light aftershocks followed the mainshock. The last earthquake within about
200 km of this epicenter with M>=5.6 was an M 5.7 on January 18, 2017, an aftershock of
an M 6.6 about 150 km south of today's epicenter on October 30, 2016. At the time
...
The M 5.6-5.7 in Italy today occurred with the full moon and at the longitude of maximum
tidal stresses with this alignment" (November 9, 2022)
Note that today's earthquake in Italy also occurred with the full moon (of October 7, 2025).
O: 06OCT2025 10:13:59 43.9N 13.3E ML=4.9 EMSC CENTRAL ITALY
An unusual M 4.8 earthquake occurred today in Central Vietnam. NEIC reported this event near Kon Tum, Vietnam was felt with maximum intensity IV in Nguyen, Vietnam at Play Cu Thai; III in Duyen Hai Mien Trung at Hoi An and Tam Ky and II in Danang. It was also lightly felt in Thailand.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Vietnam in Ngu Hanh, Tra, Da Nang, Buon Ma Thuot, Nha Trang, and in Thailand at Ubon Ratchathani.
This follows a similar earthquake in Laos reported in this summary on October
3, 2025 as:
"An M 4.3 occurred today in Laos. It was not reported felt. The only earthquake
in the region of Laos with M>=4.3 in the past 35 years was an M 4.4 on January 27, 2017.
Today's earthquake in Laos is significant because it occurred in the area where Typhoon Burloi dissipated at the
end of September and early October and was probably promoted by energy
associated with that storm as noted at the time in this summary:
"TYPH BURLOI 2025-09-29 00:00 UT 18.2N 106.2 100 kts Vietnam
Typhoon Burloi (26W) continued today after making landfall in Vietnam with winds up to 100 kts where it did considerable damage. It is expected to track to the west in the next several days dissipating in the next two days. . The Antipode at 18S 74W is will pass over southern Peru and Tarapaca and Arica, Chile and elevated seismicity is likely in that area in the next several days." (September 29-October 1, 2025)
O: 03OCT2025 10:00:17 17.4N 105.7E ML=4.3 EMSC LAOS" (October 4, 2025)
Today's earthquake in Vietnam is the strongest within about 200 km of this epicenter
since an M 5.1 on July 27, 2024. The only other earthquakes of M>=4.8 in this area
in the past 35 years occurred with M 4.8 on August 23, 2022 and April 18, 2022.
"An unusual earthquake of M 5.1 occurred today in the region of Vietnam. NEIC reported
it was felt with intensity IV in Kon Tum, Vietman.
EMSC reported moderate shaking was felt in Vietnam at Hoi An, Da Nang, Tua Hoa, and Nha Trang.
This event was likely triggered by stresses induced by landfall of Typhoon
Gaemi today north of this epicenter. This was expected in previous issues
of this report as:
"Typhoon Gaemi made landfall today in the area of the coast of southeastern China with winds up to 65 kts. This system is expected to dissipate over China today. Some enhanced seismicity is expected in the area of transform faults in Southeastern Asia in the next several days." (July 27, 2024)
Today's event in Vietnam appears to have been triggered by landfall of Typhoon
Matmo north of this epicenter in Vietnam near the time of the earthquake as
reported in the previous issues of this summary:
"TYPH MATMO 2025-10-06 00:00 UT 19.0N 108.4E 80 kts Vietnam" (October 6, 2025)
Typhoon Matmo continued today making landfall in Vietnam with winds up to 80 kts. It is made landfall October 3 in Luzon and northern Philippines as a typhoon. Regional seismicity and aftershocks from the Leyte M 7.0 event occurred in northern Luzon as this storm passed through. The antipode is at 19S 72W in an area of northern Chile and southern Peru where seismicity could be enhanced at this time.
O: 05OCT2025 18:28:45 14.8N 108.1E MB=4.8 NEIC VIETNAM
The strongest earthquake of the day was an M 5.4 in Kyrgyzstan. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity VI in Namangan, Uzbekistan and III in Quva Farg'ona, Jomboy, Samarkand, Salor, Tashkent, Uzbekistan; in Kazakhstan at Taraz with IV and III in Kokerek and Shymkent, Ontustik and II in Os, Kyrgyzstan.
EMSC reported moderate to strong shaking in Kazakhstan at Zhabagly, Taraz, Turar Ryskulov, Tyul'kubas, Kokterk, Lenger, Sayram, Shymkent, and in Uzbekistan at Haqqulobod, Kysyldzhar, Namangan, among others.
This is the strongest earthquake within about 200 km of this epicenter since
an M 5.5 on May 22, 2003 - the only such event in the past 25 years in this region.
A strong M 6.2 hit the area on May 15, 1992. The event in 2003 was accompanied
by a moderate earthquake of M 4.6 in southeastern Alaska and an M 5.9 in Central
Philippines, not unlike the current seismic climate.
This earthquake occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted by tidal stresses associated with the coming full moon of October 7
as previously noted in this summary:
"The full moon will arrive at 03:47 UT on October 7, 2025. This is the largest super-moon of the year as it is closest to earth at this time. This in turn, considerably enhances tidal stresses (at the inverse third power of distance) and can lead to larger global earthquakes within a couple of days of the full moon. Longitudes at local solar noon are near 124 East and those at local solar midnight are near 56 West longitude. In the west these include the northern and Eastern Caribbean as well as areas of western South America while in the East longitudes near 126 E are located in the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and Indonesia among others. These are the most likely areas to see tidal triggering at this time, but other areas could see significant enhancement in seismicity in the next several days. These would most likely see seismic enhancement near local solar noon or midnight. A strong to major earthquake is considered likely with this new moon before October 8, 2025.
This includes the aftershock area of the earthquake of M 6.9 in the Philiippines of September 30 (at 124E longitude) and is likely to enhance regional seismicity in that area at this time." (October 2, 2025)
O: 05OCT2025 20:28:59 42.2N 71.3E MB=5.4 NEIC KYRGYZSTAN
A series of moderate earthquakes occurred today in the areas of Svalbard and Jan Mayen Islands, Arctic Ocean. These events of M 4.6-4.8 were note
reported felt in this remote area. They occurred near local solar noon with
the second largest of M 4.8 within several minutes of local noon. At high latitude near the
full moon and at the end of a major geomagnetic storm they may have been
promoted by energy from those sources.
These earthquakes are located at the fourth node (90 degrees) from the M 7.0 in
Leyte, Philippines and may have been promoted by energy from that source.
O: 05OCT2025 14:30:36 71.1N 7.8W MB=4.6 NEIC SVALBARD AND JAN MAYEN IS.
O: 05OCT2025 12:01:22 71.3N 7.9W MB=4.9 NEIC SVALBARD AND JAN MAYEN IS.
O: 05OCT2025 09:08:15 71.2N 7.9W MB=5.2 NEIC SVALBARD AND JAN MAYEN IS.
An earthquake of M 4.9 was felt in the area of Pakistan near the Afghanistan border today.
NEIC it was felt in Punjab Pakistan at Kot Abdul Malik with intensity II.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Quetta, Balochistan, Kot Malik, Barkhurdar, Pakistan.
This follows a similar magnitude earthquake in southern Pakistan
of October 3, 2025 as reported in this summary at the time:
"An unusual earthquake of M 4.9 occurred in Pakistan north of Karachi today.
The last earthquake in the area of today's epicenter of M>=4.9 occurred on March 29, 2024
with M 5.5 and 5.4. At the time this summary noted:
"NEIC reported this earthquake of M 5.5 in Pakistan was felt with intensity up to VII in the area(s) of Pakistan in Nushki.
EMSC reported moderate shaking in Pakistan at Quetta, and in Kandahar, Afghanistan." (March 19, 2024)
This event may have been promoted by a tropical cyclone currently south of
Karachi in the Arabian Sea. This summary had anticipated this possibility
in the previous issue as:
"TC SHAKHTI 2025-10-03 00:00 UT 22.0N 66.7E 70 kts Pakistan
Tropical cyclone formed south of Pakistan today with winds up to 70 kts. This system is currently south of Karachi, Pakistan and moving to the northeast. It could promote moderate seismicity in the epicentral area of southwestern Pakistan near 24N 65E in the next couple of days as it moves through the region. The antipodal area at 22S 116W near the East Pacific Rise could also see enhanced seismicity at this time." (October 3, 2025)
This event also occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted
by tidal stresses associated with the coming full moon and/or geomagnetic
effects from the current strong geomagnetic storm which maximize near this hour.
This epicenter is at the fifth node (72 degrees) from Kamchatka and the sixth node (60 degrees)
from the M 7 in Leyte, Philippine. It may also have been related to the current
geomagnetic storm as it lies at the sixth node from the North Geomagnetic
pole and at 105 degrees from the South Geomagnetic Pole. Energy from these
sources may have helped promote this earthquake in Pakistan.
O: 03OCT2025 20:29:32 28.3N 64.2E ML=4.9 NEIC WESTERN PAKISTAN" (October 4, 2025)
The position of TC Shakhti when today's event in Pakistan occurred was approximately:
"TC SHAKHTI 2025-10-06 00:00 UT 20.3N 60.4E 75 kts South of Pakistan
Tropical cyclone Shakhti continued south of Pakistan today with winds up to 75 kts. This system is currently south of Karachi, Pakistan and moving to the northeast. It could promote moderate additional seismicity in the epicentral area of southwestern Pakistan in the next couple of days as it moves through the region. The antipodal area at 20S 120W near the East Pacific Rise could also see enhanced seismicity at this time." (October 5, 2025)
This epicenter is at the sixth node (60 degrees) frrom the north geomagnetic Pole and
energy from that source related to the current geomagnetic storm may have helped promote today's earthquake.
O: 05OCT2025 13:29:27 30.3N 66.3E MB=4.9 NEIC PAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN BORDER
The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.4 in southeastern
Alaska bordering on the Yukon Territory, Canada. NEIC reported it was felt with
intensity II-III in Alaska at Anchorage and Copper Center and II in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
This is the strongest earthquake in southeastern Alaska within about 150 km
of this epicenter since an M 4.8 on August 6, 2023. At the time this summary
noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today was an M 4.8-5.0 in the Southern Yukon Territory, Canada. NEIC reported it was felt with intensity III in Haines Junction, Yukon, Canada and II in Whitehorse, Yukon with intensity II in Glennallen, Alaska.
This earthquake occurred within about an hour of local solar noon and may
have been promoted by strong tidal stresses which maximize near this hour.
The last earthquake within about 150 km of this epicenter in the Yukon or
in Southeastern Alaska with magnitude greater than 4.7 was an M 5.2 on January 8, 2022
and prior to that an M 6.0 on July 17, 2014." (August 6, 2023)
Today's event occurred near local solar midnight and may have been promoted
by tidal and/or geomagnetic stresses which maximize near this hour.
O: 05OCT2025 11:20:04 61.4N 140.5W MB=4.4 NEIC SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
An M 3.5 earthquake was widely felt today in southern California east of Los Angeles. NEIC reported it was felt
with intensity III in Big Bear City, California and possibly in Yumna, Arizona and Pasadena, California with II in California at Rancho Cucamonga, Palm Springs, Apple Valley and Barstow.
NEIC reported aftershocks of M 2.6 and M 2.4 in Southern California were felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern California in Big Bear City.
The last earthquake within about 75 km of this epicenter with M>=3.5 was an M 4.9 and aftershock
of M 3.5 on July 29, 2024. At the time this summary noted:
"A moderate earthquake shook southern California today with M 4.9. NEIC and the press
reported it was felt with intensity up to VI in Barstow and Los Angeles areas.
EMSC reported moderate shaking with a rolling motion with earthquake noises in California at Fort Irwin,
Helendale, Victorville, Apple Valley, Hesperia, Big Bear City, Adelanto, Cedar Glen, Yucca Valley, Pinon Hills, Edwards, Trona, Pinon Hills, Morongo Valley, San Bernardino, Searles Valley, Redlands, Yucaipa, Ridgecrest, California City, Loma Linda, Twentynine Palms, Beaumont, Fontana and as far as Bakersfield and Simi Valley more than 200 km from the epicenter.
It occurred within minutes of local solar noon and was probably promoted
by strong geomagnetic and tidal stresses which maximize near this hour.
A number of smaller aftershocks were felt with light intensity in the Barstow
area. This is a remote area of southern California and no major damage
was reported with this earthquake. Today's earthquake of M 4.9 is the strongest
recorded in Southern California within about 100 km of today's epicenter since an M 5.1
on December 6, 2008. At the time this summary noted:
"A moderate earthquake of M 5.1 hit the area of Southern California today in
the region of Ludlow which an event of M 7.0 in 1999 may have stressed to
near rupture. Today's earthquake was felt throughout Southern California and
into Arizona, Utah and Nevada. Maximum intensity IV was reported at Pahrump,
NV and in California at Pearblossom, Little Rock, Thousand Palms, Twentynine
Palms, Fort Irwin, Fontana, Loma Linda, Newberry Springs, San Diego, La Puente,
San Fernando, Encino, Beverly Hills, Culver City, Whittier, Los Angeles,
and in general within about 200 km of the epicenter. Likewise intensity II-III
was felt within about 250 km of the earthquake and intensity I was felt throughout
the remainder of the region according to data on the NEIC website.
AP reported no immediate damage or casualties from the earthquake.
We have been undergoing the strongest geomagnetic storm in the past month
over the past three days. Sudden changes in geomagnetic field can change
the fault parameters such that an earthquake may occur simultaneously with
such change. This often, but not always occurs. Southern California often
shows such triggering. In the case today, a strong and sudden geomagnetic change in
Hp, Hn and in the total field occurred. SEC shows data indicating the
Hn field increased from 0.9e+1 to 1.6e+1 nT from 03:40 to 04:23 UT and was
accompanied by equivalent changes in the total field and the Hp field both
maximizing between 04:10 and 04:20 UT. The M 5.1 in Southern California
occurred at then end of this field change at 04:18 UT. This is not the first
time such observations have been made but is found more often than not
especially in this region of California. This suggest direct triggering of the earthquake by
the geomagnetic change." (December 6, 2008, July 29, 2024)
Readers may note the coincidence of these previous regional earthquakes
with the end of strong geomagnetic storms. This is consistent with the
conditions of the current earthquake in southern California.
O: 05OCT2025 10:41:24 34.3N 116.9W MB=3.5 NEIC SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 05OCT2025 09:51:36 34.3N 116.9W MB=3.3 NEIC SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 05OCT2025 06:15:39 34.3N 116.9W MB=3.3 NEIC SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
A moderate M 5.0 earthquake occurred in the northern Mid-Atlantic today. It
was not reported felt in this remote area. It occurred as a new tropical
cyclone was passing over the epicenter as reported in this summary:
"A tropical cyclone may be forming in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. This system is currently located by NHC at 13N 44W and moving to the west with winds up to 30 kts. NHC gives this 70% chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next several days." (October 6, 2025)
O: 06OCT2025 05:10:03 13.2N 44.6W MB=5.0 NEIC NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.2 in Santiago, Chile was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Santiago, Chile.
EMSC reported moderate shaking and loud deep noise in Chile at Providencia, Santiago, Lo Prado, Penaflor, and Colina.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.8 in Northern Kansas was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Northern Kansas in Stockton and Wichita.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.9 in Southern Mindanao, Philippines was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern Mindanao, Philippines in Cablalan.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.4 in Guam was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Guam with IV in Asan and III in Santa Rita.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.1 in Southern Idaho was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern Idaho and western Montana in Kuna, Idaho.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 2.0 in Los Angeles, California was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Los Angeles, California in Fontana.
TYPHOON MATMO (27W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH MATMO 2025-10-06 00:00 UT 21.9N 108.5E 80 kts Vietnam
Typhoon Matmo made landfall in Vietnam with winds up to 80 kts. It also made landfall October 3 in Luzon and northern Philippines as a typhoon. Regional seismicity and aftershocks from the Leyte M 7.0 event occurred in northern Luzon as this storm passed through. The antipode is at 21S 71W in an area of northern Chile near Tarapaca and Antofagasta where seismicity could be enhanced at this time.
HURRICANE PRISCILLA
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR PRISCILLA 2025-10-06 00:00 UT 17.0N 107.2W 90 kts South of Gulf of California
Hurricane Priscilla continued today in area southeast of Baja California, Mexico and west of Jalisco Mexico with winds up to 90 kts. It is expected to track to the north and west. Regional seismicity in the area of Baja California and the Gulf of California could be enhanced at this time. The antipode is at 17S 73E is in the South Indian Ocean and could see moderately enhanced seismicity while this storm is active.
HURRICANE OCTAVE (DEPRESSION 15E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR OCTAVE 2025-10-06 00:00 UT 16.3N 122.5W 80 kts South of Baja, Mexico
Hurricane Octave (depression 15E) continued today in the Pacific south of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 80 kts. It is expected to track to the north and east and not to approach landfall at this time. Regional seismicity is not likely to be enhanced at this time. The antipode is at 16S 57E is in the South Indian Ocean. This is a minor seismic zone and it could see minor earthquake enhancement in the next several days.
TYPHOON HALONG (DEPRESSION 28W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH HALONG 2025-10-06 00:00 UT 25.7N 140.9E 80 kts Bonin Islands, Japan
Typhoon Halong (28W) continued today in the area of the Bonin Islands, Japan with winds up to 80 kts. This system is moving to the northeast and could help promote seismicity in the Bonin Islands north to Honshu in the next day. It will turn to the east around October 7 and with the full moon could promote a moderate to large earthquake in that area of Japan at the time. The current antipode is at 26S 39W in the South Atlantic and is not expected to see enhanced seismicity at this time.
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHAKHTI (02A)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC SHAKHTI 2025-10-06 00:00 UT 19.8N 60.4E 50 kts South of Pakistan
Tropical cyclone Shakhti continued south of Pakistan today with winds up to 50 kts. This system is currently south of Karachi, Pakistan and moving to the northeast. It could promote moderate additional seismicity in the epicentral area of southwestern Pakistan in the next couple of days as it moves through the region. The antipodal area at 20S 120W near the East Pacific Rise could also see enhanced seismicity at this time.
A tropical cyclone may be forming in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. This system is currently located by NHC at 13N 44W and moving to the west with winds up to 30 kts. NHC gives this 70% chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next several days.
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 5, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
7290 2337 2342 2345 C3.4 (October 5, 2025) 1.8E-03
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: active October 6 minor storms October 7-8. Solar M-flare chance: 45% X-class: 10% proton storm: 10%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 9 14 6 07:00 4 127 148
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 3, 2025 at 01:58:30 UT (#251003A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>20.01 was assigned to this GRB.
An earthquake of M 4.7 in Kamchatka coincided with this GRB at 01:59 UT
and may have been triggered by it.
October 5, 2025
Notable earthquakes and events:
The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.0 off the coast of Honshu, Japan. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensityV in Fukushima and IV in Shirakawa, Fukushima, Japan. Intensity III was also felt in Chiba Prefecture at Chiba, Narashino, Tomisato; in Koriyama, Fukushima, Oizumi, Gunma, and II in Chiba at Urayasu, Nagaryama, Matsudo.
EMSC reported it was felt with strong shaking in Kamagaya, Tokyo, Japan. JMA reported
maximum shaking of V (Japanese scale) at Ken Hamadori, Fukushima near local solar midnight with intensity II-III throughout most of eastern Honshu, Japan. No tsunami was expected nor observed.
This is the first earthquake of M>=6 off the east coast of Honshu, Japan since
an M 6.1 on April 4, 2024 and an M 6.1 on May 26, 2023. But the last event
within about 250 km of today's epicenter of significantly larger magnitude than
M 6.0 occurred 3.5 years ago as an M 7.3 on March 16, 2022. At the time of the
event on April 4, 2024 this summary noted:
"The strongest earthquake in the world today was an M 6.1 in the region of eastern Honshu, Japan. NEIC reported it was felt with maximum intensity IV in Minami-Soma, Honshu, Japan.
EMSC reported moderate to strong shaking in Japan at Minuma, Nakahara, Tokyo.
No major damage was reported with this earthquake. The last earthquake of M>=6.1
off the east coast of Honshu, Japan within about 150 km of this epicenter occurred
on March 16, 2022 with M 7.3 - an event which, like today's occurred at the end
of a strong geomagnetic storm. Today's event caused some concern of a repeat
of the March 11, 2011 earthquake and tsunami of M>9. That event however
was probably triggered by several strong X-class flares and the current
solar conditions are quiet, so a repeat appears unlikely at this time.
At the time of March 16, 2022 event this summary noted:
"A major earthquake of M 7.3 off the east coast of Honshu, Japan followed an M 6.4 minutes earlier.
Today's mainshock killed four in Fukushima, Japan and did minor damage
throughout the area. More than 97 were injured in this earthquake but millions
lost power. Some trains came off their tracks but no injuries
were reported with these incidents. High Speed trains were temporarily
shut down. A tsunami warning was issued and waves of up to 20 cm were
reported. No damage was reported at nuclear facilities with these earthquakes. Some
residents of Fukushima were evacuated for fear of tsunamis. This is the strongest earthquake in this area since a similar M 7.3 on February 13, 2021.
An M 9.3+ earthquake shook this area and triggered a major Pacific-wide tsunami
NEIC reported maximum intensity IX with the M 7.3 with damage was felt in Namie, Fukushima with VIII in Haramachi, Soma, Watan, Natori, Shiogama, Miyagi and lesser shaking throughout most of eastern Honshu, Japan.
The M 6.5 foreshock was reported with maximum intensity VII in Miyagi and V in Fukushima
with lesser shaking in Chiba, Saitama, and Tokyo Prefectures, Japan.
These earthquakes occurred within a couple of minutes of local solar midnight and were probably
promoted by strong tidal and geomagnetic stresses which maximize near this
hour. Today's earthquake followed a major geomagnetic storm of the past
three days. A series of M-class solar flares have been occurring over
the past day and a moderate geomagnetic sudden commencement storm began about
14:00 UT today, coincident with the earthquakes in Japan and may have
helped trigger this activity." (March 16, 2022, April 4, 2024)
This event occurred near local solar midnight and was probably promoted by
tidal stresses with the upcominig full and super moon of October 7 as noted
in previous issues of this summary:
"The full moon will arrive at 03:47 UT on October 7, 2025. This is the largest super-moon of the year as it is closest to earth at this time. This in turn, considerably enhances tidal stresses (at the inverse third power of distance) and can lead to larger global earthquakes within a couple of days of the full moon. Longitudes at local solar noon are near 124 East and those at local solar midnight are near 56 West longitude. In the west these include the northern and Eastern Caribbean as well as areas of western South America while in the East longitudes near 126 E are located in the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and Indonesia among others. These are the most likely areas to see tidal triggering at this time, but other areas could see significant enhancement in seismicity in the next several days. These would most likely see seismic enhancement near local solar noon or midnight. A strong to major earthquake is considered likely with this new moon before October 8, 2025.
This includes the aftershock area of the earthquake of M 6.9 in the Philiippines of September 30 (at 124E longitude) and is likely to enhance regional seismicity in that area at this time." (October 2, 2025)
The earthquake of M 6.0 in Japan also coincided with a major peak in the
intensity of the current geomagnetic storm. This occurred around 12:00 - 17:00 UT
with K-index at high latitudes reaching 7 (Gs storm) at 12:00 and 15:00 UT.
In the previous summary this possibility had been emphasized as:
"The strong geomagnetic storm continued today with Planetary AP 30; high latitude
45 and middle latitude 20. This storm has delayed stronger seismicity but
this is probably about to end. The full moon will arrive early on October 7
with maximum stress in the ring of fire in the western Pacific which includes
highly seismic areas of Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines. On the
basis of previous observations and discussions in this summary these regions
are susceptible to geomagnetic seismic triggering, especially in Japan which
has been relatively quiet during this storm and prior to it. It is likely
that a strong earthquake will accompany the end of the storm or a sudden
flareup of the storm in the next two days (October 4-6, 2025)." (October 4, 2025)
An M 4.5 earthquake about 250 km north of today's M 6.0 preceded it as a regional
foreshock about an hour earlier but was not reported felt.
This activity in Japan occurred as Tropical Storm Halong was making land fall in
the Volcano and Bonin Islands of southeastern Japan and may have been
promoted by energy associated with that landfall.
"TS HALONG 2025-10-05 00:00 UT 25.5N 141.9E 70 kts Bonin Islands, Japan
Tropical Storm Halong (28W) continued today in the area of the Bonin Islands, Japan with winds up to 70 kts. This system is moving to the northwest and could help promote seismicity in the Bonin Islands north to Honshu in the next day. It will turn to the east around October 8 and with the full moon could promote a moderate to large earthquake in that area of Japan at the time. The current antipode is at 25S 39W in the South Atlantic and is not expected to see enhanced seismicity at this time." (October 5, 2025)
Today's events in Japan are located at 101-103 degrees from the south Geomagnetic
pole and are likely being promoted by energy that accumulated there with the
current geomagnetic storm. The M 6.0 is also at the 12th node (30 degrees) from
the M 6.9 in Leyte, Philippines and may have been promoted by energy associated
with that source.
O: 04OCT2025 15:21:09 37.4N 141.7E MB=6.0 NEIC OFF THE COAST OF HONSHU JAPAN
O: 04OCT2025 14:15:19 39.7N 142.2E MB=4.5 NEIC OFF THE COAST OF HONSHU JAPAN
Moderate aftershocks also continued in the area of Leyte, Philippines today.
An M 5.0 was reported by NEIC to have been felt with intensity II in Talisay, Cebu in the Central Visayas, Philippines
among others. EMSC reported slight trembling in Baugo, Philippines for this and an M 4.6
aftershock nine minutes later. This area could see a sizable aftershock near the time of the
super full moon on October 7 as it lies at the longitude of maximum stress
with that alignment.
O: 04OCT2025 09:41:18 10.9N 124.0E MB=5.0 NEIC LEYTE, PHILIPPINES
O: 04OCT2025 09:50:17 10.8N 123.8E MB=4.6 EMSC NEGROS-CEBU REGION, PHILIPPINES
O: 04OCT2025 09:30:15 10.9N 123.9E MB=4.4 EMSC NEGROS-CEBU REGION, PHILIPPINES
A moderately strong M 5.5 earthquake occurred today south of Michoacan, Mexico on
the northern East Pacific Rise. NEIC reported it may have been lightly felt
in this remote epicentral area.
This epicenter is located near the position of Hurricane Octave which passed near
this epicenter several days ago. Hurricane Narda also passed nearby this
epicenter in late September, 2025 and may have helped set the area up for
a moderate earthquake at this time. This M 5.5 occurred as a new Tropical
Storm (Priscilla) was passing near this epicenter. It may have been promoted
by energy associated with that storm as noted in this summary:
"TS PRISCILLA 2025-10-05 00:00 UT 11.0N 103.0W 45 kts Northern East Pacific Rise
TS Priscilla continued today in area of the East Pacific Rise south of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 45 kts. It is expected to track to the north and west. Regional seismicity in the northern East Pacific Rise could be enhanced at this time. The antipode is at 11S 77E is in the South Indian Ocean and is not a seismic area." (October 5, 2025)
O: 04OCT2025 09:02:03 8.4N 103.9E MB=5.5 NEIC NORTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.5 in Washington State was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Washington State in Victoria British Columbia, Canada.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.3 in the Andreanof Islands, Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of the Andreanof Islands, Alaska.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 4.7 in Costa Rica was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Costa Rica with V in Tilaran, Guanacaste and IV in El Roble, Panama.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 3.0 in Southern Alaska was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Southern Alaska in Eagle River.
NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.8 in Oklahoma was felt with intensity up to II-III in the area(s) of Oklahoma in Covington.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 3.2 in Southern California was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Southern California at Big Bear Lake with a rumbling sound.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.4 in Southern Xinjiang, China was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Southern Xinjiang, China in Almaty, Kazakhstan.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 5.2 in Kamchatka, Russia was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Kamchatka, Russia in Vilyuchinsk.
EMSC reported an earthquake of M 3.6 in Portugal was felt with intensity up to IV in the area(s) of Portugal in Sines.
Hurricane Gabrielle is currently in this area dissipating and may have helped
promoted this earthquake. An earthquake of M 4.3 also occurred near this epicenter
as Hurricane Gabrielle was dissipating over this epicenter today.
O: 05OCT2025 06:38:36 36.0N 10.2W MB=4.3 NEIC AZORES-CAPE St. VINCENT RIDGE, PORTUGAL
TYPHOON MATMO (27W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TYPH MATMO 2025-10-05 00:00 UT 19.0N 108.4E 80 kts Vietnam
Typhoon Matmo continued today making landfall in Vietnam with winds up to 80 kts. It is made landfall October 3 in Luzon and northern Philippines as a typhoon. Regional seismicity and aftershocks from the Leyte M 7.0 event occurred in northern Luzon as this storm passed through. The antipode is at 19S 72W in an area of northern Chile and southern Peru where seismicity could be enhanced at this time.
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS PRISCILLA 2025-10-05 00:00 UT 11.0N 103.0W 45 kts Northern East Pacific Rise
TS Priscilla continued today in area of the East Pacific Rise south of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 45 kts. It is expected to track to the north and west. Regional seismicity in the northern East Pacific Rise could be enhanced at this time. The antipode is at 11S 77E is in the South Indian Ocean and is not a seismic area.
HURRICANE OCTAVE (DEPRESSION 15E)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
HURR OCTAVE 2025-10-05 00:00 UT 15.6N 123.9W 85 kts South of Baja, Mexico
Hurricane Octave (depression 15E) continued today in the Pacific south of Baja California, Mexico with winds up to 85 kts. It is expected to track to the north and east and not to approach landfall at this time. Regional seismicity is not likely to be enhanced at this time. The antipode is at 16S 57E is in the South Indian Ocean. This is a minor seismic zone and it could see minor earthquake enhancement in the next several days.
TROPICAL STORM HALONG (DEPRESSION 28W)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TS HALONG 2025-10-05 00:00 UT 25.5N 141.9E 70 kts Bonin Islands, Japan
Tropical Storm Halong (28W) continued today in the area of the Bonin Islands, Japan with winds up to 70 kts. This system is moving to the northwest and could help promote seismicity in the Bonin Islands north to Honshu in the next day. It will turn to the east around October 8 and with the full moon could promote a moderate to large earthquake in that area of Japan at the time. The current antipode is at 25S 39W in the South Atlantic and is not expected to see enhanced seismicity at this time.
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHAKHTI (02A)
---- ------- ---------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ---------------
TC SHAKHTI 2025-10-05 00:00 UT 20.3N 60.4E 75 kts South of Pakistan
Tropical cyclone Shakhti continued south of Pakistan today with winds up to 75 kts. This system is currently south of Karachi, Pakistan and moving to the northeast. It could promote moderate additional seismicity in the epicentral area of southwestern Pakistan in the next couple of days as it moves through the region. The antipodal area at 20S 120W near the East Pacific Rise could also see enhanced seismicity at this time.
Following is the listing of C- M- or X-class flares from SWPC for the date
of October 3, 2025. These listings are published daily in this summary and at SWPC.
The main line gives details of flares. Subsequent lines identify some earthquakes
which are at or after the time of the flare and could have been affected by
immediate Solar Flare Effects (SFE). Some earthquakes occur at longitudes
which were at local solar noon or local solar midnight and may also have
been affected by SFE. These are not identified here.
SOLAR FLARES
Flare # START MAX END CLASS DATE Flux (Jm-2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
6530 0025 0035 0041 C3.4 (October 4, 2025) 2.8E-03
6540 0049 0054 0058 C2.7 (October 4, 2025) 1.6E-03
6560 0136 0142 0147 C5.5 (October 4, 2025) 3.1E-03
6590 0310 0322 0331 C4.7 (October 4, 2025) 5.1E-03
6600 0407 0414 0416 C3.2 (October 4, 2025) 1.8E-03
6630 0455 0502 0509 C3.5 (October 4, 2025) 2.6E-03
Kamchatka M 4.4 05:03 UT
6850 1745 1752 1756 C3.5 (October 4, 2025) 2.1E-03
Kamchatka M 4.8 17:44 UT
6860 1837 1845 1850 C2.7 (October 4, 2025) 2.5E-03
Fiji M 4.9 18:50 UT
6880 1850 1905 1911 C3.0 (October 4, 2025) 3.9E-03
Banda Sea M 4.2 19:02 UT
6950 2202 2205 2211 C2.0 (October 4, 2025) 1.2E-03
6970 2317 2323 2326 C2.1 (October 4, 2025) 1.1E-03
Kuril Is. M 4.1 23:31 UT
*indicates modified reading from NOAA GOES Graph
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: active October 5-7. Solar M-flare chance: 60% X-class: 15% proton storm: 5%
AP Indicies (global, high, mid-latitude, time of max AP, Max AP, Sunspot Number, Radio Flux) 30 25 20 07:00 6 137 158
A strong Gamma Ray Burst was recorded by SWIFT on October 3, 2025 at 01:58:30 UT (#251003A). A preliminary UVOT Magnitude of V>20.01 was assigned to this GRB.
An earthquake of M 4.7 in Kamchatka coincided with this GRB at 01:59 UT
and may have been triggered by it.
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